[MCD] SWOMCD

Sun May 21 04:57:06 UTC 2006

ACUS11 KWNS 210453
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 210453 
MOZ000-ARZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-210630-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0918
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1153 PM CDT SAT MAY 20 2006

AREAS AFFECTED...SE KS...SRN MO

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 210453Z - 210630Z

ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS MAY EXPAND IN COVERAGE ACROSS SE KS/SRN MO
THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.  THIS AREA WILL BE MONITORED FOR A
POSSIBLE WW IN THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS.

LOCAL VWP AND PROFILER WINDS SHOW PRONOUNCED WAA ACROSS SE KS AND
SRN MO...N OF A STATIONARY SURFACE FRONT ACROSS NRN OK AND NRN AR. 
A FEED OF MODERATE INSTABILITY /MUCAPE VALUES AROUND 1500-2000 J/KG/
 FROM THE SW AND EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR IN EXCESS OF 40 KT MAY SUPPORT
A FEW SUPERCELLS BASED NEAR 850 MB ACROSS THE DISCUSSION
AREA...WHICH WILL TEND TO LOCALLY ENHANCE THE LARGE HAIL THREAT.  IF
THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE AND INTENSITY CONTINUE TO INCREASE...A SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM WATCH MAY BECOME NECESSARY IN THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO
ACROSS THE SE KS AND SRN MO AREA.

..THOMPSON.. 05/21/2006

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...PAH...MEG...LSX...LZK...SGF...EAX...TSA...TOP...ICT...

36748988 36249004 36479212 36999520 37349714 37879800
38359777 38469645 37609304 37019037 