[MCD] SWOMCD

[Mesoscale Convective Discussions]

ACUS11 KWNS 201904
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 201904 
NCZ000-SCZ000-202030-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0906
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0204 PM CDT SAT MAY 20 2006

AREAS AFFECTED...SC...SRN NC

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 201904Z - 202030Z

SEVERE STORMS MAY SPREAD EAST ACROSS PARTS OF SC AND SRN NC THROUGH
LATE AFTERNOON. A NEW WATCH WILL PROBABLY BE ISSUED SHORTLY FOR
AREAS EAST OF WATCH 366.

CLUSTER OF SEVERE STORMS ACROSS NWRN SC...AND NEW DEVELOPMENT NEAR
CLT...WOULD SUGGEST THAT SEVERE STORM THREAT MAY SPREAD EAST INTO
WARM AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS ACROSS SC AND SRN NC THIS AFTERNOON.
BOUNDARY LAYER ACROSS THESE AREAS WAS RECOVERING IN THE WAKE OF
EARLIER MCS THAT MOVED OFF THE SC COAST THIS MORNING. RESIDUAL
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM THIS EARLIER CONVECTION APPEARS TO BE
INTERSECTING FRONT ACROSS NWRN SC WHERE VIGOROUS STORMS HAVE
PRODUCED SEVERE HAIL. STORM NEAR CLT APPEARS TO HAVE INITIATED NEAR
THE FRONT/LEE TROUGH ON THE EDGE OF STRONGER INSTABILITY. ALL THIS
ACTIVITY SHOULD CONTINUE TO DEVELOP EAST GIVEN STRONG WLY MEAN LAYER
FLOW. UNIDIRECTIONAL SHEAR PROFILES FROM ACROSS THE REGION WILL
CONTINUE TO SUPPORT SPLITTING CELLS WITH A HAIL AND WIND THREAT.
LACK OF STRONGER LARGE SCALE FORCING MAY TEND TO LIMIT OVERALL STORM
COVERAGE. HOWEVER...SOME UPSCALE DEVELOPMENT AND A MORE WIDESPREAD
SEVERE THREAT COULD OCCUR IF STORMS CAN ORGANIZE ALONG LEE
TROUGH/FRONT...OR WITHIN FRONTAL WAVE...POSSIBLY TRACKING EAST
ACROSS THE CAROLINAS THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON.

..CARBIN.. 05/20/2006

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...RAH...ILM...CHS...CAE...GSP...

34098230 35548166 35648070 35197913 34567863 34017872
33367953 32857989 33038042 33208086 33628148