[MCD] SWOMCD

Fri May 19 23:35:59 UTC 2006

ACUS11 KWNS 192332
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 192332 
KYZ000-TNZ000-ILZ000-MOZ000-IAZ000-200100-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0900
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0632 PM CDT FRI MAY 19 2006

AREAS AFFECTED...NRN/ERN MO...SW IL...WRN KY

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 192332Z - 200100Z

THE AREA ACROSS NRN MO WILL BE MONITORED FOR ANY INCREASE IN
SURFACE-BASED TSTM DEVELOPMENT...WHILE POTENTIAL FOR ELEVATED
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD INCREASE BY ABOUT 03Z TOWARD WRN KY/TN.  A
SEVERE TSTM WATCH STILL COULD BECOME NECESSARY THIS EVENING INTO
EARLY TONIGHT.

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND LOCAL PROFILER PLOTS SHOW A MID LEVEL SPEED
MAX MOVING SSEWD FROM IA TOWARD NRN MO THIS EVENING.  A WEAK SURFACE
LOW SHOULD CONTINUE TO MOVE SEWD IN ADVANCE OF THIS SPEED
MAX...ALONG A SURFACE FRONT ALIGNED ALONG THE MS RIVER.  THE WARM
SECTOR HAS BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE /MLCAPE VALUES NEAR 1500 J/KG/
WITH BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS OF 57-61 F AND SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN
THE MID-UPPER 80S.  HOWEVER...SOME CONVECTIVE INHIBITION PERSISTS IN
ASSOCIATION WITH A VERY WARM ELEVATED MIXED LAYER.

THE RECENT DEVELOPMENT OF ISOLATED DEEP CONVECTION ACROSS NW MO
SUGGESTS THAT THE CAP HAS WEAKENED THIS AREA...THOUGH THUNDERSTORM
COVERAGE ACROSS MO THIS EVENING IS STILL IN QUESTION.  IF ADDITIONAL
CONVECTION CAN FORM...THE COMBINATION OF MODERATE INSTABILITY AND
STRAIGHT HODOGRAPHS WITH 0-6 KM SHEAR OF 40-50 KT APPEARS SUPPORTIVE
OF SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.  THE MORE PROBABLE
SCENARIO IS FOR ELEVATED CONVECTION TO DEVELOP LATER TONIGHT OVER
WRN KY/TN...WHERE LOW-LEVEL WAA WILL BE ENHANCED ON THE NOSE OF A
STRENGTHENING /35-50 KT/ LLJ.  LARGE HAIL WOULD BE THE MAIN THREAT
WITH THIS ACTIVITY.

..THOMPSON.. 05/19/2006

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...OHX...PAH...ILX...MEG...LSX...DVN...SGF...DMX...EAX...

38878990 36798752 36128807 36328901 38089143 38599407
39249434 40159382 40749216 39709070 