[MCD] SWOMCD

[Mesoscale Convective Discussions]

ACUS11 KWNS 191957
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 191956 
IDZ000-MTZ000-ORZ000-WAZ000-192200-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0897
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0256 PM CDT FRI MAY 19 2006

AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL/EASTERN ORE INTO EASTERN WA/WESTERN ID

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 191956Z - 192200Z

POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED LARGE HAIL/STRONG WIND GUSTS IS EXPECTED TO
INCREASE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON ACROSS CENTRAL/EASTERN ORE INTO
EASTERN WA/WESTERN ID. WILL MONITOR FOR A POSSIBLE SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM WATCH.

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY PORTRAYS UPPER TROUGH OFF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
COAST CENTERED ALONG 135 W. AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE...HEIGHT FALLS ARE
ONGOING ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AMIDST AN INCREASING BELT OF
SOUTHWESTERLY MID LEVEL FLOW. 12Z/18Z OBSERVED BOISE RAOBS CAPTURE
RATHER MOIST NATURE OF AIRMASS ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST...WITH
PRECIP WATER VALUES RUNNING AS MUCH AS 200 PERCENT OF NORMAL.

INCREASING FORCING FOR ASCENT COUPLED WITH AMPLE INSOLATION AND A
WARM/MOIST AIRMASS IS EXPECTED TO LEAD TO INCREASING THUNDERSTORM
COVERAGE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...MOST LIKELY FROM THE ORE
CASCADES E/NE INTO EASTERN WA AND WESTERN ID. A RECENT INCREASE IS
ALREADY EVIDENT ACROSS THE NORTHEAST ORE MOUNTAINS...AS WELL AS
ALONG THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE ORE CASCADES NORTH OF REDMOND ORE. 

MODIFIED 18Z BOISE RAOB IN CONJUNCTION WITH RUC FORECAST SOUNDINGS
SUGGESTS MODERATELY INSTABILITY OF 1500 J/KG MUCAPE OR GREATER WILL
BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY FROM NORTHEAST ORE INTO ID. THIS DEGREE OF
INSTABILITY COUPLED WITH AMPLE CLOUD BEARING SHEAR WOULD SUPPORT
UPDRAFT ROTATION/SUPERCELL STRUCTURES...ENHANCING LARGE HAIL
POTENTIAL. IN ADDITION TO LARGE HAIL...STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL ALSO
BE POSSIBLE.

..GUYER.. 05/19/2006

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...PIH...MSO...BOI...OTX...PDT...MFR...PQR...

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