[MCD] SWOMCD

[Mesoscale Convective Discussions]

ACUS11 KWNS 150716
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 150715 
GAZ000-FLZ000-150915-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0877
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0215 AM CDT MON MAY 15 2006

AREAS AFFECTED...NRN FLORIDA...SRN GEORGIA

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 150715Z - 150915Z

A WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED...BUT TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED FOR THE
POSSIBILITY OF AN INCREASING SEVERE THREAT.

PRE-FRONTAL LOW-LEVEL CONFLUENCE NEAR 25-30 KT WEST SOUTHWESTERLY
LOW-LEVEL JET ACROSS NORTHERN FLORIDA/SOUTHERN GEORGIA APPEARS TO BE
FOCUS FOR ONGOING CONVECTIVE BAND.  ACTIVITY IS DEVELOPING IN MOIST
ENVIRONMENT WITH MIXED LAYER AND MOST UNSTABLE CAPE ON THE ORDER OF
1000-2000 J/KG...AND MODERATELY STRONG UNIDIRECTIONAL SHEAR APPEARS
TO CONTRIBUTING TO EMBEDDED ISOLATED STRONGER CELLS.  SURFACE BASED
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT APPEARS CONFINED TO WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE
COASTAL AREAS...WITH ACTIVITY LIKELY ELEVATED ABOVE AT LEAST A
SHALLOW SURFACE INVERSION ACROSS INLAND AREAS OF NORTHERN FLORIDA/
SOUTHERN FLORIDA.

LITTLE CHANGE IS ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT AS
CONVECTIVE BAND SHIFTS ONLY VERY SLOWLY EASTWARD.  INCREASING
MID/UPPER FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH NEXT IMPULSE ROTATING AROUND
SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF OHIO VALLEY CLOSED MAY PROVIDE SOME RISK FOR
GROWING CLUSTER OF STORMS EAST OF TALLAHASSEE TOWARD 12Z...BUT THIS
POTENTIAL SEEMS LOW/UNCERTAIN AT THE PRESENT TIME.  HOWEVER
...ISOLATED STRONGER CELLS COULD STILL BRIEFLY PRODUCE MARGINALLY
SEVERE HAIL...PERHAPS SOME GUSTY WINDS THROUGH DAYBREAK.

..KERR.. 05/15/2006

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...CHS...JAX...TAE...MOB...

30408698 30518587 31078440 31878229 31768155 31108139
30488161 29978270 29518442 29498511 29428629 29688750
29988761 

WWWW