[MCD] SWOMCD

Mon May 15 02:25:12 UTC 2006

ACUS11 KWNS 150223
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 150223 
TXZ000-NMZ000-150430-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0876
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0923 PM CDT SUN MAY 14 2006

AREAS AFFECTED...SCENTRAL/SERN NM AND SWRN TX

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 357...

VALID 150223Z - 150430Z

ISOLATED SVR STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SSEWD OFF THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF SCENTRAL AND SERN NM /NWRN PORTION OF WW 357/ AND INTO
FAR WRN TX /INCLUDING THE ELP AREA/ IN THE NEXT 1-2 HRS. ADDITIONAL
SVR STORMS MAY DEVELOP OVER THE DAVIS MTNS AND MOVE SEWD INTO THE
BIG BEND REGION /SERN PORTION OF WW 357/...AS MOIST UPSLOPE FLOW
INCREASES.

LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS DEWPTS CONTINUE TO RISE OVER MUCH OF WW
357 AS LOW LEVEL ENELY FLOW MOISTURE ADVECTION OCCURS. MODERATE
INSTABILITY AXIS REMAINS IN PLACE FROM THE ELP AREA SEWD INTO THE
DAVIS MTNS/BIG BEND REGION...WITH MUCAPES FROM 1000-2000 J/KG. THE
GREATEST PRESSURE RISES DUE TO CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW FROM STORMS OVER
THE MIDDLE RIO GRANDE RIVER VALLEY HAVE YET TO REACH THE DAVIS MTNS.
IT IS POSSIBLE THAT ADDITIONAL SVR CONVECTION MAY DEVELOP AS UPSLOPE
FLOW INCREASES WITHIN THE NEXT HR OR SO. OTHERWISE...THE MAIN SVR
THREAT SHOULD REMAIN OVER NWRN HALF OF WW 357 FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF
HRS WHERE CONVECTION MOVES SSEWD OUT OF THE SACRAMENTO AND GUADALUPE
MTNS OF SCENTRAL/SERN NM INTO LOWER ELEVATIONS OF FAR WRN TX. A
DEEPLY MIXED BNDRY LAYER WILL SUPPORT A DMGG WIND THREAT...BUT
ISOLATED LARGE HAIL WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE DUE TO FAVORABLY STRONG
CLOUD LAYER SHEAR AND WET-BULB COOLING EFFECTS.

..CROSBIE.. 05/15/2006

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...EWX...SJT...MAF...ABQ...EPZ...

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