[MCD] SWOMCD

[Mesoscale Convective Discussions]

ACUS11 KWNS 150007
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 150007 
NCZ000-150130-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0872
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0707 PM CDT SUN MAY 14 2006

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF CNTRL THROUGH ERN NC

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 351...

VALID 150007Z - 150130Z

THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL...ISOLATED TORNADOES AND DAMAGING WIND IS
EXPECTED TO PERSIST ANOTHER FEW HOURS ACROSS PARTS OF CNTRL THROUGH
ERN NC.

THIS EVENING A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM WRN SC NEWD THROUGH CNTRL NC
WHERE IT TRANSITIONS TO A WARM FRONT FROM JUST S OF RALEIGH EWD TO S
OF ELIZABETH CITY. DESPITE SOME STABILIZATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE
COOLING BOUNDARY LAYER...COLD MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES OF -16 TO -17C
WILL MAINTAIN SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY AND LAPSE RATES FOR THE THREAT
OF SEVERE WEATHER TO PERSIST A WHILE LONGER. STORMS HAVE INCREASED
ALONG THE SURFACE FRONT ACROSS CNTRL THROUGH NERN NC. FORCING FOR
ASCENT WITHIN EXIT REGION OF MID LEVEL JET ROTATING THROUGH BASE OF
UPPER TROUGH WILL MAINTAIN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR STORMS TO
CONTINUE DEVELOPING NEAR THIS BOUNDARY NEXT FEW HOURS. A SLY LOW
LEVEL JET OVER ERN NC IS COUPLED WITH EXIT REGION OF THE UPPER
JET...CONTRIBUTING TO FAVORABLE LOW LEVEL AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR
PROFILES FOR SUPERCELLS WITH LOW LEVEL MESOCYCLONES. TORNADO THREAT
MAY BE LOCALLY ENHANCED BY THE E-W ORIENTED FRONT WHERE THE LOW
LEVEL FLOW IS LOCALLY BACKED TO ELY.

..DIAL.. 05/15/2006

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...RAH...

35257712 35407944 35697954 36037815 36167716 35937665 

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