[MCD] SWOMCD

[Mesoscale Convective Discussions]

ACUS11 KWNS 142337
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 142337 
TXZ000-150100-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0871
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0637 PM CDT SUN MAY 14 2006

AREAS AFFECTED...S-CNTRL TX

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 353...

VALID 142337Z - 150100Z

CLUSTERS OF STRONG TO SEVERE TSTMS WILL CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE SWD
ACROSS SRN HALF OF WW 353. A VERY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH STRONG
DIRECTIONAL SHEAR WILL CONTINUE THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS. AREA TO THE S OF WW 353 IS BEING MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE WW
IN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO.

A VERY WARM AND MOIST AIR MASS REMAINS IN PLACE AHEAD OF SWD MOVING
CLUSTERS OF SEVERE TSTMS IN AN AXIS FROM VAL VERDE TO MATAGORDA
COUNTIES. ASSOCIATED COLD POOL WILL LIKELY INITIATE ADDITIONAL
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE SRN PERIPHERY OF WW 353...ESPECIALLY TOWARDS
THE RIO GRANDE RIVER VALLEY NEAR LRD. MLCAPES OF 3000 TO 4000 J/KG
ALONG WITH EFFECTIVE SHEAR OF 50 TO 60 KTS WILL SUPPORT CONTINUED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. STEEP LAPSE RATES WILL LIKELY LEAD
TO LARGE HAIL BEING THE MAIN THREAT. IN ADDITION...HIGH DEW POINT
DEPRESSIONS ALONG THE RIO GRANDE NEAR LRD WILL SUPPORT AN ENHANCED
THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS IN THIS AREA. IF STORMS CAN MAINTAIN
SFC-BASED CHARACTER IN MODIFIED MARINE LAYER AIR MASS NEAR THE
COASTAL BEND...AN ISOLATED THREAT FOR A TORNADO WILL BE POSSIBLE
WITH O-1 KM SRH OF 100 TO 150 M2/S2 /PER CRP VAD PROFILER/.

..GRAMS.. 05/14/2006

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...HGX...CRP...EWX...BRO...

29810171 30120003 29689729 29069520 27719710 26699776
26249873 27419946 28830051 

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