[MCD] SWOMCD

Sun May 14 21:04:19 UTC 2006

ACUS11 KWNS 142059
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 142058 
VAZ000-NCZ000-SCZ000-GAZ000-142230-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0870
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0358 PM CDT SUN MAY 14 2006

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS CENTRAL/SRN VA...WRN NC...SC...ERN GA.

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 350...352...

VALID 142058Z - 142230Z

ISOLATED/MRGL SVR MAY STILL OCCUR OVER PORTIONS CENTRAL VA...AS
CONVECTION NOW BETWEEN LYH-PTB MOVES NEWD INTO POCKET OF RELATIVELY
UNSTABLE AIR THAT WAS HEATED EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON...AND WHICH HAS
BEEN RELATIVELY UNDISTURBED BY OTHER CONVECTION.  WRN NC PORTION OF
WW 350 -- WHICH WAS NOT CONVERTED TO TORNADO WW 351 -- HAS
STABILIZED SUBSTANTIALLY FROM EARLIER ACTIVITY...REDUCING SEVERE
POTENTIAL.

STRONGEST VERTICAL SHEAR AND GREATEST BUOYANCY REMAINS OVER SRN LOBE
OF WW 350 AND ADJACENT WW 352. THIS AREA IS DIRECTLY BENEATH
MIDLEVEL SPEED MAX PIVOTING EWD AROUND PERIPHERY OF GREAT LAKES
CYCLONE...RESULTING IN 50-60 KT OF 0-6 KM SHEAR IN SUPPORT OF
SUPERCELL POTENTIAL.  HAIL UP TO 1.5 INCHES HAS BEEN REPORTED WITHIN
PAST HOUR FROM ACTIVITY IN CHARLESTON COUNTY.  LIKELY SUPERCELL
STRUCTURES SUPPORT RISK OF EVEN LARGER HAIL FROM ACTIVITY OVER NERN
SC AND SERN NC...WHERE AIR MASS HAS BEEN RELATIVELY UNDISTURBED BY
PRIOR CONVECTION.  ADDITIONAL DESTABILIZATION IS OCCURRING ALONG WRN
PORTION OF CLOUD/PRECIP AREA ASSOCIATED WITH CHS COUNTY
STORM...ACROSS GA/SC BORDER REGION.

..EDWARDS.. 05/14/2006

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...LWX...RAH...ILM...RNK...CHS...CAE...GSP...JAX...FFC...

34817847 34517824 34727808 34707773 34227735 33877799
33737884 33157921 32368047 31308122 31948223 33988260
34048196 35548150 36128150 36958016 37318036 38177966
38687886 37897653 37177645 36587688 36547915 36237919
36178006 35768043 34838032 

WWWW