[MCD] SWOMCD

Sun May 14 20:09:11 UTC 2006

ACUS11 KWNS 142007
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 142007 
TXZ000-142100-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0868
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0307 PM CDT SUN MAY 14 2006

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS CENTRAL...S-CENTRAL AND SE TX.

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 349...

VALID 142007Z - 142100Z

BAND OF STRONG-SEVERE TSTMS FROM HOU AREA WNWWD TO MCCULLOCH
COUNTIES SHOULD CONTINUE TO MOVE SWD ACROSS REMAINDER WW AREA IN TX.
 WW MAY BE REPLACED BEFORE 21Z TO INCLUDE MORE AREAS JUST W AND/OR S
OF PRESENT WW BETWEEN JCT/DRT AREAS AND MIDDLE TX COAST...AND ALSO
TO EXCLUDE LA...WHERE AIR MASS HAS BEEN SUBSTANTIALLY STABILIZED BY
EARLIER MCS.

SFC MESOANALYSIS...RUC SOUNDINGS AND VIS IMAGERY INDICATE BOUNDARY
LAYER CONTINUES TO WARM AND DESTABILIZE ACROSS PRECONVECTIVE AIR
MASS OVER REGION. STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES...AND SFC DEW POINTS
REMAINING IN UPPER 60S-LOW 70S F...CONTRIBUTE TO MLCAPES 3000-4000
J/KG.  STRONG CAPPING STILL IS EVIDENT FROM SAT AREA SWD...LIMITING
DEVELOPMENT IN WARM SECTOR AWAY FROM OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES. 
HOWEVER...REINFORCEMENT OF THOSE BOUNDARIES BY COLD POOLS MAY
OVERCOME CINH AND ALLOW CONVECTION EVENTUALLY TO CONTINUE OR
PROPAGATE THROUGH THAT REGION. OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM LA MCS IS
EVIDENT FROM ABOUT 30 SSE GLS NWWD ACROSS FT BEND COUNTY  AND INTO
CLUSTER OF CONVECTION OVER MONTGOMERY COUNTY.  ACTIVITY HAS
DEVELOPED ON BOTH SIDES OF THIS BOUNDARY FROM COLORADO COUNTY ESEWD
TO MAINLAND GALVESTON COUNTY...IN ADDITION TO POTENTIALLY SVR
CLUSTER OF TSTMS PROPAGATING SSEWD INTO NRN HARRIS COUNTY. 
MEANWHILE ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED INVOF BLENDED
OUTFLOW/FRONTAL ZONE MOVING SWD THROUGH SJT-JCT-AUS CORRIDOR.

..EDWARDS.. 05/14/2006

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...HGX...FWD...CRP...EWX...SJT...

31169961 31249824 30589581 30129482 29369453 28909512
28629757 28789972 29650082 30400058 

WWWW