[MCD] SWOMCD

Sun May 14 18:44:12 UTC 2006

ACUS11 KWNS 141842
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 141842 
NCZ000-VAZ000-141945-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0866
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0142 PM CDT SUN MAY 14 2006

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS CENTRAL/ERN NC.

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 350...

VALID 141842Z - 141945Z

MUCH OF NC PORTION WW IS BEING UPGRADED TO TORNADO WW 351...WHICH
ALSO WILL INCLUDE ADDITIONAL TERRITORY EWD TOWARD COAST.  VA/SC
PORTIONS WILL REMAIN IN SVR TSTM WW 350.

VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES ARE SLOWLY BECOMING MORE FAVORABLE FOR
SUSTAINED SUPERCELLS AND TORNADO POTENTIAL OVER CENTRAL/ERN
NC...PARTICULARLY INVOF DIFFERENTIAL HEATING BOUNDARY WHERE LOW
LEVEL WINDS ARE BACKED AND HODOGRAPH SIZE IS MAXIMIZED.  SFC
MESOANALYSIS SHOWS THIS BOUNDARY FROM CENTRAL PORTION PAMLICO SOUND
WNWWD TO NEAR DAN.  PRONOUNCED PRESSURE FALL CENTER IS EVIDENT ALONG
WRN PORTION OF THIS BOUNDARY SSE DAN....WHICH SHOULD HELP TO
MAINTAIN FAVORABLE LOW LEVEL WIND PROFILES OVER REGION.  MLCAPES ARE
INCREASING TO OVER 1000 J/KG IN MORE STRONGLY HEATED AREAS OF ERN
NC.

..EDWARDS.. 05/14/2006

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...RAH...ILM...RNK...GSP...

36558054 36527590 35237558 34517749 34817970 34898078 

WWWW