[MCD] SWOMCD

Sun May 14 07:29:03 UTC 2006

ACUS11 KWNS 140727
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 140727 
MSZ000-LAZ000-ARZ000-TXZ000-OKZ000-140900-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0858
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0227 AM CDT SUN MAY 14 2006

AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF NRN/ERN TX INTO LA...CNTRL/SRN MS

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 346...347...

VALID 140727Z - 140900Z

CONTINUE WWS 346 AND 347.  ADDITIONAL WWS SOUTH/EASTWARD ACROSS
LOUISIANA INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY/CENTRAL GULF COAST
STATES ARE NOT ANTICIPATED.

ONGOING SCATTERED VIGOROUS CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT APPEARS TO HAVE
BEEN INITIATED BY LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION/WEAKENING MID-LEVEL
INHIBITION ASSOCIATED WITH IMPULSE EMBEDDED WITHIN BELT OF CYCLONIC
FLOW...SOUTH OF UPPER MIDWEST UPPER LOW.  THIS FORCING WILL CONTINUE
TO SPREAD EASTWARD ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THROUGH
DAYBREAK...PERHAPS FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER IMPULSE EMANATING FROM THE
NORTH CENTRAL ROCKIES. FORCING WITH UPSTREAM SYSTEM COULD SUPPORT
ADDITIONAL CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT NEAR LOW-LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE
EXTENDING ACROSS NORTHERN TEXAS INTO NORTHERN LOUISIANA...BUT STORMS
SEEM LIKELY TO REMAIN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED IN NATURE DUE TO LACK OF
MORE FOCUSED LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE.  STILL...FAVORABLY SHEARED CLOUD
BEARING LAYER WITH CAPE OF 1000 TO 2000 J/KG ABOVE FRONTAL INVERSION
 WILL REMAIN SUPPORTIVE OF LARGE HAIL IN STRONGER CELLS.  HAIL
THREAT IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH WITH STORMS DEVELOPING EAST OF
STEEPER MID- LEVEL LAPSE RATE ENVIRONMENT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS.

..KERR.. 05/14/2006

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...JAN...LIX...LZK...LCH...SHV...FWD...OUN...

33489846 33719777 33799555 33509387 33409298 33279082
32638945 30888995 30379129 31049285 31629410 32069632
32339756 32949842 

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