[MCD] SWOMCD

[Mesoscale Convective Discussions]

ACUS11 KWNS 100238
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 100238 
ARZ000-TXZ000-OKZ000-100415-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0817
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0938 PM CDT TUE MAY 09 2006

AREAS AFFECTED...SRN OK...PARTS OF NRN TX INTO THE ARKLATEX?

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 318...

VALID 100238Z - 100415Z

ADDITIONAL WW PROBABLY WILL BE NEEDED SHORTLY ACROSS SOUTHERN
OKLAHOMA.

MID-LEVEL THERMAL RIDGE SUPPRESSING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ACROSS
MUCH OF SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA SEEMS LIKELY TO BREAK DOWN DURING THE
03-06Z TIME.  THIS WILL OCCUR AS STRONGER MID/UPPER FORCING
CONTINUES TO SHIFT EAST SOUTHEASTWARD OUT OF THE SOUTH CENTRAL HIGH
PLAINS...AHEAD OF VIGOROUS IMPULSE ROTATING AROUND SOUTHERN
PERIPHERY OF NORTH PLAINS CLOSED LOW.  ENVIRONMENT ALONG LOW-LEVEL
BAROCLINIC ZONE NEAR/NORTH OF THE RED RIVER IS POTENTIALLY VERY
UNSTABLE WITH MOST UNSTABLE CAPE ON THE ORDER OF 2000-4000 J/KG...
AND WILL FAVOR RAPID NEW CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT AS INHIBITION
WEAKENS.  LARGE HAIL IS LIKELY...AND DRY POTENTIALLY COLD MID-LEVEL
ENVIRONMENT EVIDENT IN 00Z NORMAN SOUNDING MAY CONTRIBUTE TO
SUFFICIENT NEGATIVE BUOYANCY IN DOWNDRAFTS FOR DAMAGING SURFACE WIND
POTENTIAL...DESPITE DEVELOPING SURFACE INVERSION.  

TORNADO POTENTIAL APPEARS TO BE DECREASING WITH ACTIVITY NORTHEAST
OF SURFACE LOW...ON NOSE OF LOW-LEVEL JET...ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN
OKLAHOMA.  LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL WILL CONTINUE THOUGH
...WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN ALSO BECOMING AN INCREASING THREAT. WITH
MAIN UPPER SUPPORT STILL UPSTREAM...CONVECTION MAY BE SLOW TO
DEVELOP SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE ARKLATEX.

..KERR.. 05/10/2006

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LZK...SHV...TSA...FWD...OUN...

35179952 35479838 35479696 35339630 34839488 33879416
33519456 33399543 33409634 33519787 33609893 33889961
34469994 

WWWW