[MCD] SWOMCD

Tue May 9 18:35:44 UTC 2006

ACUS11 KWNS 091833
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 091833 
ALZ000-MSZ000-ARZ000-092000-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0807
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0133 PM CDT TUE MAY 09 2006

AREAS AFFECTED...NRN MS

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 091833Z - 092000Z

STORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP AND INCREASE IN COVERAGE ACROSS NRN MS
OVER THE NEXT 1 TO 2 HOURS. THE STRONGER CELLS WILL LIKELY HAVE A
POTENTIAL FOR WIND DAMAGE AND HAIL. A WW MAY BECOME NECESSARY BY
19Z.

LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY
EXTENDING EWD ACROSS CNTRL AR INTO NRN MS AND NW AL WITH SFC
DEWPOINTS NEAR 70 F SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY. ACCORDING TO OBJECTIVE
ANALYSIS...THE CAPPING INVERSION HAS WEAKENED ACROSS NRN MS AND
LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE IS INCREASING ALONG THE BOUNDARY. THIS SHOULD
RESULT IN CONVECTIVE INITIATION WITH STORMS INCREASING IN COVERAGE
OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. ALTHOUGH NRN MS APPEARS TO HAVE WEAKER
VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES THAN AREAS FURTHER NORTH...THE SHEAR MAY BE
ADEQUATE FOR A FEW SEVERE MULTICELL STORMS WITH HAIL AND ISOLATED
WIND DAMAGE. IN ADDITION...A MESOSCALE THERMAL AXIS EXISTS ACROSS NE
MS WHERE LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE MAXIMIZED. THIS MAY ENHANCE THE
WIND DAMAGE POTENTIAL AS STORMS MOVE INTO NE MS BY LATE AFTERNOON.

..BROYLES.. 05/09/2006

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...BMX...MEG...JAN...

33368934 33459058 34329086 34949003 34898843 34078819
33508844 

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