[MCD] SWOMCD

[Mesoscale Convective Discussions]

ACUS11 KWNS 091448
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 091447 
ALZ000-FLZ000-MSZ000-LAZ000-091645-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0804
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0947 AM CDT TUE MAY 09 2006

AREAS AFFECTED...SRN MS...SE LA...SRN AL AND FAR WRN FL PANHANDLE

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 091447Z - 091645Z

THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE OVER THE NEXT
FEW HOURS ALONG THE GULF COAST BETWEEN NEW ORLEANS LA AND PENSACOLA
FL. AS STORMS INTENSIFY...THE THREAT FOR ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE AND
HAIL WILL INCREASE. A WW MAY BECOME NECESSARY WITHIN THE NEXT COUPLE
OF HOURS.

LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A TIGHT MOISTURE GRADIENT EXTENDING ESEWD
FROM NRN LA ACROSS SRN MS TO NEAR MOBILE AL. SFC DEWPOINTS SOUTHWEST
OF THE GRADIENT ARE IN THE LOWER 70S F AND MODERATE INSTABILITY IS
IN PLACE. ALTHOUGH OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS SHOWS A WEAK CAPPING INVERSION
IS PRESENT...ELEVATED STORMS ARE DEVELOPING IN SRN MS AND FAR SRN AL
ALONG THE MOISTURE GRADIENT. AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER LA EVIDENT
ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY MOVES ACROSS THE REGION...INCREASING
LARGE-SCALE ASCENT SHOULD RESULT IN A GRADUALLY EXPANSION OF
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW MODERATE TO STRONG
VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES WHICH WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS
ESPECIALLY LATER THIS AFTERNOON WHEN THE STORMS WILL LIKELY BECOME
SFC-BASED. THE INSTABILITY...SHEAR AND STEEPENING LOW-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR WIND DAMAGE AND HAIL WITH THE STRONGER
CELLS THIS AFTERNOON.

..BROYLES.. 05/09/2006

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...MOB...JAN...LIX...

30349008 30739068 31169080 31579067 31949007 31788840
31378682 30848647 30298661 29868737 30018844