[MCD] SWOMCD

[Mesoscale Convective Discussions]

ACUS11 KWNS 080421
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 080420 
TXZ000-080515-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0788
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1120 PM CDT SUN MAY 07 2006

AREAS AFFECTED...S CNTRL TX

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 305...

VALID 080420Z - 080515Z

REMAINING VALID PORTION OF WW MAY BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 05Z. A
NEW WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF A BROADLY
ANTICYCLONIC HIGH LEVEL JET APPEARS TO HAVE CONTRIBUTED TO THE
DEVELOPMENT OF ONGOING LINEAR MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM ACROSS THE
EDWARDS PLATEAU.  THIS FORCING APPEARS TO BE GRADUALLY SHIFTING TO
THE EAST OF HIGH PLAINS LOW-LEVEL THERMAL RIDGE AND SOUTHERLY
LOW-LEVEL JET AXIS.  WITH DEMISE OF SUPERCELL ON SOUTHWESTERN FLANK
OF SYSTEM...STORMS NOW APPEAR ROOTED ENTIRELY ABOVE DEEPENING
SURFACE BASED INVERSION LAYER. WITH WARMER MID-LEVEL AIR MASS
BEGINNING TO ADVECT EAST OF THE PLATEAU REGION...COOLER/COOLING
LOW-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT SEEMS UNLIKELY TO MAINTAIN INTENSE CONVECTION
ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS.  ISOLATED LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WIND GUSTS MAY
PERSIST ANOTHER HOUR OR TWO WITH ONGOING STORMS...BUT SEVERE THREAT
IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH AS ACTIVITY APPROACHES THE INTERSTATE 35
CORRIDOR BY THE 06-07Z TIME FRAME.

..KERR.. 05/08/2006

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...HGX...FWD...EWX...SJT...

31589853 32169774 32249677 31849637 30779651 29889837
29779934 30400021 

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