[MCD] SWOMCD

Mon May 8 02:18:41 UTC 2006

ACUS11 KWNS 080215
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 080215 
OKZ000-KSZ000-TXZ000-080315-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0787
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0915 PM CDT SUN MAY 07 2006

AREAS AFFECTED...SW KS...NW OK...TX PNHDL

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 306...

VALID 080215Z - 080315Z

CONTINUE WW 306.

AS STRONGER MID-LEVEL FORCING AHEAD OF SHORT WAVE TROUGH PROGRESSES
EAST OF WESTERN KANSAS HIGH PLAINS LOW-LEVEL THERMAL
RIDGE/INSTABILITY AXIS NEXT FEW HOURS...CONVECTIVE LINE OVER KANSAS
IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN IN COOLER LOW-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT. GIVEN
POSITIVE TILT ORIENTATION OF UPPER TROUGH...THIS FORCING WILL BE
SLOWER TO PROGRESS EAST OF THE TEXAS PANHANDLE REGION...WHERE
DESTABILIZATION/LIFT NEAR 40 KT LOW-LEVEL JET SPEED MAXIMUM MAY
CONTRIBUTE TO EXPANDING CLUSTER OF STORMS THROUGH 06Z. MOST
UNSTABLE CAPE UP TO AROUND 1500 J/KG FOR PARCELS REACHING LEVELS OF
FREE CONVECTION ABOVE DEEPENING SURFACE INVERSION LAYER WILL BE
SUFFICIENT FOR CONTINUING RISK OF LARGE HAIL IN FAVORABLY SHEARED
ENVIRONMENT.  AND...DESPITE COOLING SURFACE ACROSS THE EASTERN TEXAS
PANHANDLE...SOURCE REGION FOR DOWNDRAFTS APPEARS POTENTIALLY
COOL/DRY ENOUGH TO SUPPORT THREAT FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.

..KERR.. 05/08/2006

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...OUN...DDC...LUB...AMA...

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