[MCD] SWOMCD

[Mesoscale Convective Discussions]

ACUS11 KWNS 061931
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 061931 
TXZ000-062130-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0776
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0231 PM CDT SAT MAY 06 2006

AREAS AFFECTED...DEEP SOUTH TX

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 061931Z - 062130Z

ISOLATED SVR STORMS MAY DEVELOP ALONG AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ACROSS
DEEP SOUTH TX IN THE NEXT FEW HRS. AREA WILL BE MONITORED FOR A
POSSIBLE WW. 

SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A WEAK MESOLOW SOUTH OF LRD WITH AN OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY EXTENDING EWD FROM THE LOW TO NEAR BKS AND MOVING SLOWLY
SWD. AIRMASS SOUTH OF THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WAS VERY UNSTABLE WITH
MLCAPES AROUND 3500 J/KG. RECENT OBSERVATIONS ALONG WITH SATELLITE
IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT THERE STILL REMAINS SOME CIN ACROSS THE WARM
SECTOR. HOWEVER A FEW MORE HRS OF HEATING AND CONVERGENCE ALONG THE
OUTFLOW BNDRY MAY BE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT ISOLATED TSTM DEVELOPMENT.
MODERATE MID LEVEL FLOW COMBINED WITH THE INSTABILITY WILL SUPPORT A
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR SUPERCELL STORMS WITH LARGE HAIL/DMGG
WINDS. VWP DATA FROM CRP AND BRO SHOWS A MODEST LOW LEVEL SHEAR WITH
0-1 KM SRH FROM 100-200 J/KG. THIS COMBINED WITH RELATIVELY LOW LCL
HEIGHTS SUGGESTS THAT IF ANY DISCRETE STORMS DO DEVELOP THEY MIGHT
BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING ISOLATED TORNADOES /ESPECIALLY IF THEY MOVE
PARALLEL THE OUTFLOW BNDRY/.

..CROSBIE.. 05/06/2006

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...CRP...BRO...

25899750 26379895 26689925 27259950 27569956 27759944
27519819 27319745 26899718 26039705 

WWWW