[MCD] SWOMCD

Sat May 6 00:28:13 UTC 2006

ACUS11 KWNS 060027
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 060026 
TXZ000-060230-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0770
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0726 PM CDT FRI MAY 05 2006

AREAS AFFECTED...SCENTRAL/SWRN TX

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 295...

VALID 060026Z - 060230Z

CONTINUE ALL WW 295.

ISOLATED SVR STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND MOVE
ESEWD OVER PORTIONS OF WW 295 DURING THE NEXT FEW HRS...PRIMARILY
ALONG AND EAST OF AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY EXTENDING N-S FROM KERR COUNTY
SWD TO ATASCOSA COUNTIES. PRIMARY SVR THREAT WILL BE VERY LARGE HAIL
AND DMGG WINDS...ALTHOUGH AN ISOLATED TORNADO CAN NOT BE RULED OUT.

LATEST VWP FROM EWX INDICATES STRONGLY LOOPING LOW LEVEL HODOGRAPH
INDICATIVE OF AN INCREASING LOW LEVEL JET. MODERATE TO EXTREME
INSTABILITY WITH MLCAPES AROUND 3000 J/KG ALONG WITH MODEST DEEP
LAYER SHEAR /40 KTS/ WILL SUPPORT A CONTINUED THREAT FOR LARGE
HAIL/DMGG WINDS WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS. RECENT SAT IMAGERY SHOWS
MDT CU ALONG AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM ATASCOSA COUNTY NWD
TO KERR COUNTY INDICATING THAT ADDITIONAL SVR STORMS MIGHT DEVELOP
IN THE NEXT FEW HRS IN THE ERN PORTION OF WW 295. GIVEN MORE STABLE
AIR IN PLACE OVER AREAS EAST OF THE HILL COUNTRY...THE POSSIBILITY
FOR AN ORGANIZED SVR THREAT EAST OF WW 295 REMAINS UNCERTAIN.
HOWEVER AREA WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF
ANOTHER WW IN A FEW HRS.

FURTHER WEST...A LONE SUPERCELL STORM OVER TERRELL COUNTY WILL MOVE
ESEWD AROUND 25 KTS AND INTO SRN CROCKETT AND NWRN VAL VERDE
COUNTIES THROUGH 02Z. THE 00Z DRT SOUNDING INDICATED MINOR MLCINH. 
AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER CONTINUES TO COOL...THIS STORM IS NOT LIKELY
TO LAST MUCH BEYOND 03Z. SAT TRENDS INDICATE A DIMINISHING THREAT
FOR NEW SVR TSTM DEVELOPMENT WEST OF THIS STORM ACROSS PECOS COUNTY.
THEREFORE THIS COUNTY LIKELY CAN BE CLEARED FROM WW 295 BY 0130Z.

..CROSBIE.. 05/06/2006

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...CRP...EWX...SJT...MAF...

30720239 29130254 28719785 30639789 30719983 

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