[MCD] SWOMCD

Fri May 5 20:15:13 UTC 2006

ACUS11 KWNS 052014
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 052013 
LAZ000-052145-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0765
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0313 PM CDT FRI MAY 05 2006

AREAS AFFECTED...SCENTRAL/SWRN LA

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 292...

VALID 052013Z - 052145Z

SVR THREAT HAS DIMINISHED OVER NERN PORTION OF WW 292. A MARGINAL
SVR THREAT WILL LIKELY CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT FEW HRS OVER WRN
PORTIONS OF WW 292...WITH SOME POTENTIAL FOR NEW ISOLATED SVR
DEVELOPMENT JUST WEST OF WW 292 IN SWRN/WCENTRAL LA. SOME OF THIS
ACTIVITY MAY MOVE INTO WW 292 BEFORE 23Z.

LATEST VISIBLE SAT IMAGERY SHOWS A STABILIZED AIRMASS OVER NERN
PORTION OF WW 292 /NORTH OF THE BTR AREA/ CREATED IN THE WAKE OF
EARLIER SVR STORMS. WITH LACK OF A WELL DEFINED BOUNDARY...
ADDITIONAL SVR THREAT APPEARS LIMITED IN THIS REGION AND THE AREA
WILL LIKELY BE CLEARED SHORTLY FROM WW 292. A MORE DEFINED SVR
THREAT REMAINS OVER SCENTRAL LA ALONG OUTFLOW/GULF BREEZE BOUNDARY
INTERSECTIONS...AS CONVERGENCE ENHANCES UPDRAFT STRENGTH. MODEST MID
LEVEL FLOW WILL REMAIN IN AREA IN THE WAKE OF AN MCV MOVING INTO
SWRN MS ALSO SUPPORTING THE SVR THREAT. THERE WILL ALSO BE AN
ISOLATED SVR THREAT ALONG THE OLD OUTFLOW BNDRY/FRONTAL INTERSECTION
FURTHER WEST OVER WCENTRAL LA. HOWEVER...A NEW WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED
WEST OF WW 292 GIVEN THE EXPECTED MARGINAL NATURE OF THIS SVR
THREAT.

..CROSBIE.. 05/05/2006

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LIX...LCH...

29199195 30079258 30489317 31079342 31249296 31089207
30809157 30239091 29249015 29189028 

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