[MCD] SWOMCD

[Mesoscale Convective Discussions]

ACUS11 KWNS 051659
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 051659 
SCZ000-GAZ000-051900-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0762
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1159 AM CDT FRI MAY 05 2006

AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL AND SRN GA THROUGH PARTS OF WRN SC

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 051659Z - 051900Z

THUNDERSTORMS MAY BECOME CAPABLE OF PRODUCING ISOLATED STRONG TO
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL THIS AFTERNOON. AREA
WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED.

AN MCV OVER NRN AL WILL MOVE EWD INTO NRN GA TODAY. THE ATMOSPHERE
IS DESTABILIZING ACROSS MUCH OF GA WITH STRONG SURFACE HEATING AND
DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 60S. HOWEVER...OVERALL DEGREE OF INSTABILITY
WILL BE LIMITED BY MARGINAL MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WITH MLCAPE
GENERALLY AROUND 1500 J/KG EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON. FORCING FOR
ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE MCV AND WEAK CAP SHOULD CONTINUE TO
PROMOTE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS MUCH OF GA AS THE BOUNDARY
LAYER DESTABILIZES. AMBIENT WIND AND VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES ARE
UNIDIRECTIONAL WLY AND RATHER WEAK. A 30-40 KT MID LEVEL JET ON THE
SRN PERIPHERY OF THE MCS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO SLIGHTLY BETTER DEEP
LAYER SHEAR ACROSS PARTS OF CNTRL AND S CNTRL GA. HOWEVER...STORM
MODE SHOULD REMAIN PRIMARILY MULTICELLULAR WITH POTENTIAL FOR STORMS
TO EVOLVE INTO SMALL CLUSTERS OR LINE SEGMENTS AS THEY SPREAD EWD.
THOUGH SOME HAIL MAY ACCOMPANY THE STRONGER CORES...THE WEAK MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND MODEST INSTABILITY SHOULD LIMIT HAIL SIZE.
PRIMARY THREAT IS EXPECTED TO BE ISOLATED STRONG TO DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS PROMOTED BY INVERTED-V BOUNDARY LAYERS. ACTIVITY WILL DEVELOP
EWD INTO SC LATER THIS AFTERNOON.

..DIAL.. 05/05/2006

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...CHS...CAE...JAX...FFC...TAE...

31018454 32458431 33318461 33818384 33838224 32958102
31468160 

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