[MCD] SWOMCD

[Mesoscale Convective Discussions]

ACUS11 KWNS 042222
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 042222 
TXZ000-NMZ000-COZ000-050015-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0757
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0522 PM CDT THU MAY 04 2006

AREAS AFFECTED...NERN AND E CENTRAL NM/TX SOUTH PLAINS

CONCERNING...CONVECTIVE TRENDS 

VALID 042222Z - 050015Z

STORMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NERN NM...WITH
CUMULUS SLOWLY INCREASING SWD ALONG THE MOUNTAINS INTO CENTRAL NM. 
WW NOT ANTICIPATED ATTM...THOUGH WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR
CONVECTIVE TRENDS ACROSS THIS REGION AS LOW-LEVEL JET INTENSIFIES
THIS EVENING.

DAYTIME HEATING OVER NERN NM HAS RESULTED IN MARGINAL
DESTABILIZATION NEAR AND S OF COLD FRONT LYING NW-SE ACROSS THE
AREA.  STORMS CONTINUE TO FORM OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN/NEAR
FRONT...BUT MINIMAL INSTABILITY SHOULD GREATLY LIMIT SEVERE THREAT. 
HOWEVER...SELY LOW-LEVEL JET IS FORECAST TO INCREASE THIS
EVENING...WHICH WILL LIKELY SUPPORT MORE WIDESPREAD CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT.  SHOULD STORMS INITIATE SWD INTO E CENTRAL NM LATER
THIS EVENING WHERE MORE UNSTABLE AIRMASS /500 TO 1000 J/KG
MEAN-LAYER CAPE/ IS IN PLACE...WW MAY BE REQUIRED.

..GOSS.. 05/04/2006

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LUB...AMA...MAF...PUB...ABQ...

37020524 36770455 35500340 34610221 33080202 33110356
33910485 34910524 36160546 

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