[MCD] SWOMCD

Thu May 4 03:15:13 UTC 2006

ACUS11 KWNS 040314
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 040314 
MOZ000-ARZ000-040445-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0751
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1014 PM CDT WED MAY 03 2006

AREAS AFFECTED...SRN MO/N-CNTRL AR

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 286...

VALID 040314Z - 040445Z

OVERALL WEAKENING TREND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE IN THE NEXT FEW
HOURS. WW 286 MAY BE CANCELLED BEFORE ITS 06Z EXPIRATION TIME. AN
ADDITIONAL WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED DOWNSTREAM OF WW 286. 

LINEAR MCS WHICH HAS HAD A HISTORY OF WIND DAMAGE IS NOW INTO ERN
PORTIONS OF WW 286. THE MCS WEAKENED IN THE PAST HOUR AS EFFECTS OF
PREVIOUS CONVECTION EARLIER TODAY ALONG WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING
HAVE WORKED TO STABILIZE THE ATMOSPHERE. LATEST RUC ANALYSES
INDICATE EVEN GREATER STABILITY AND INCREASING CIN FURTHER E...THUS
THIS WEAKENING TREND WILL LIKELY CONTINUE. 

ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT INTO NRN AR IS POSSIBLE...AT THE EDGE OF A
30-35 KT LLJ /PER LZK AND SHV VAD PROFILERS/. HOWEVER...MID AND
UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING IN THE WAKE OF MCV IN THE TN RIVER VALLEY AND
AHEAD OF LARGE MCS IN TX PANHANDLE...WILL LIKELY MITIGATE SUSTAINED
REDEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT.

..GRAMS.. 05/04/2006

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...PAH...MEG...LSX...LZK...SGF...

36569270 37039240 37629203 37829152 37749017 37279004
36679024 36119076 35689160 35729248 36129301 

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