From Mcd at goshenarc.org Wed May 3 23:35:46 2006 From: Mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Wed, 03 May 2006 19:35:46 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 032335 SWOMCD SPC MCD 032334 TNZ000-ALZ000-KYZ000-MSZ000-ILZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-040100- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0745 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0634 PM CDT WED MAY 03 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTHERN MO/WESTERN KY/WESTERN INTO MIDDLE TN/MUCH OF AR/NORTHERN MS CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 282...283... VALID 032334Z - 040100Z VALID PORTION OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 282 CONTINUES UNTIL 01Z...A WATCH REPLACEMENT MAY BE NEEDED ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN MO AND PERHAPS NORTHERN AR. SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 283 CONTINUES UNTIL 02Z. SATELLITE DIAGNOSTICS FEATURE REMNANT MCV OVER EASTERN AR. IN THE EASTERN PORTION OF WATCHES 282/283...STRONG/SEVERE STORMS ARE ESPECIALLY FOCUSED AT THIS TIME ON THE PERIPHERY OF THIS MCV AND IN VICINITY OF OUTFLOW/WARM FRONT CONJUNCTION...NAMELY ACROSS FAR SOUTHWEST KY INTO WESTERN TN AND FAR NORTHERN MS. IN THESE AREAS...AMBIENT AIRMASS REMAINS MODERATELY UNSTABLE AND SUPPORTIVE OF SEVERE STORMS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. ACROSS SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 282...SUPERCELL NOW ENTERING FAR SOUTHWEST MO...WITH ADDITIONAL DOWNSTREAM DEVELOPMENT IN SOUTH CENTRAL MO. AHEAD OF THE SYNOPTIC COLD FRONT...STORM ROTATION MAY CONTINUE TO BE ENHANCED ALONG RESIDUAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARY AS STORMS MOVE SE ACROSS SOUTHWEST MO IN THE SHORT TERM. OVERALL PRIMARY THREAT WILL REMAIN LARGE HAIL. GIVEN SCHEDULED 01Z EXPIRATION OF WW 282...A WATCH REISSUANCE MAY BE NEEDED ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN MO AND PERHAPS NORTHERN AR. ..GUYER.. 05/03/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...OHX...HUN...PAH...MEG...JAN...LSX...LZK...SGF...TSA... 37169434 38079334 37689028 36248680 35028728 34069032 33899241 34369286 35529253 36399334 WWWW From Mcd at goshenarc.org Wed May 3 23:39:55 2006 From: Mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Wed, 03 May 2006 19:39:55 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 032339 SWOMCD SPC MCD 032338 MOZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-040115- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0746 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0638 PM CDT WED MAY 03 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...NRN OK/S CENTRAL AND SERN KS CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 284... VALID 032338Z - 040115Z SEVERE THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS PARTS OF SRN KS/NRN OK. CLUSTER OF STRONG/SEVERE STORMS CONTINUES MOVING EWD OUT OF FAR SERN KS INTO SWRN MO/WW 282. MEANWHILE...NEW STORMS HAVE BEEN SLOW TO FORM ACROSS WW 284...LIKELY DUE IN PART TO CAPPED BOUNDARY LAYER AS A RESULT OF SHORT-WAVE RIDGING/SUBSIDENCE ACROSS THIS REGION. HOWEVER...WEAK/SUBTLE SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING INTO NWRN OK ATTM APPEARS TO BE AGITATING CU FIELD ACROSS N CENTRAL AND NWRN OK -- INCLUDING A NEW RADAR ECHO OVER NWRN BLAINE COUNTY OK JUST S OF COLD FRONT. THOUGH IT APPEARS ATTM THAT GREATER THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR LATER TONIGHT AS UVV ASSOCIATED WITH APPROACHING/LARGER UPPER TROUGH SPREADS INTO THIS REGION...MORE SUBTLE VORT MAX MAY CONTRIBUTE TO A LOCAL INCREASE IN SEVERE THREAT NEAR FRONT OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. ..GOSS.. 05/03/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...SGF...EAX...TSA...ICT...OUN...DDC... 36149995 37129819 38099456 36689464 35389994 WWWW From Mcd at goshenarc.org Thu May 4 00:21:52 2006 From: Mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Wed, 03 May 2006 20:21:52 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 040021 SWOMCD SPC MCD 040020 TXZ000-OKZ000-040145- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0747 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0720 PM CDT WED MAY 03 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...TX SOUTH PLAINS/ WRN N TX NEWD INTO SWRN OK CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 285... VALID 040020Z - 040145Z SEVERE THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS WW. CLUSTER OF SEVERE STORMS CONTINUES ACROSS THE TX SOUTH PLAINS -- INVOF COLD FRONT AND AHEAD OF SWRN NM SHORT-WAVE TROUGH. EXPECT STORMS/SEVERE THREAT TO CONTINUE -- AND OVERALL STORM COVERAGE TO INCREASE -- AS LOW-LEVEL JET INTENSIFIES AHEAD OF APPROACHING TROUGH. THOUGH VEERING/SHEAR REMAINS SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS...EXPECT STORMS TO BECOME INCREASINGLY NON-DISCRETE...AND THUS MAIN THREAT WILL REMAIN LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. IN ADDITION...TENDENCY FOR SLOW STORM MOTION AND INCREASING STORM COVERAGE SUGGESTS THAT LOCALLY VERY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL OCCUR -- PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE TX SOUTH PLAINS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. ..GOSS.. 05/04/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...SJT...LUB...AMA...MAF... 34410297 35839776 33459768 32100284 WWWW From Mcd at goshenarc.org Thu May 4 00:51:31 2006 From: Mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Wed, 03 May 2006 20:51:31 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 040050 SWOMCD SPC MCD 040050 TNZ000-ALZ000-MSZ000-ARZ000-040145- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0748 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0750 PM CDT WED MAY 03 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...MUCH OF AR/NORTHERN MS INTO WESTERN/MIDDLE TN AND FAR NORTHERN AL CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 283... VALID 040050Z - 040145Z SHORT TERM SEVERE THREAT CONTINUES MAINLY ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 283 FROM WESTERN INTO MIDDLE TN. WATCH 283 IS SCHEDULED TO EXPIRE AT 02Z...AN ADDITIONAL WATCH IS NOT EXPECTED. AHEAD OF MCV CROSSING THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...STRONG/SEVERE CONVECTION CONTINUES TO PUSH EAST ACROSS WESTERN/MIDDLE TN AND FAR NORTHERN PORTIONS OF MS/AL. IMMEDIATELY AHEAD OF THE SURFACE COLD POOL/MCS ACROSS SOUTHWEST KY/WESTERN TN...A NARROW WEDGE OF MODERATE INSTABILITY EXISTS ACROSS MIDDLE TN AND EXTREME NORTHERN AL...REFERENCE 00Z NASHVILLE OBSERVED RAOB -- 1400 J/KG MLCAPE. MCV/COLD POOL ORGANIZATION INTO UNSTABLE AIRMASS SUGGESTS THE SEVERE THREAT WILL CONTINUE INTO MIDDLE TN/EXTREME NORTHERN AL OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO. OTHERWISE...A DECREASING SEVERE THREAT IS EXPECTED VIA A STABILIZING BOUNDARY LAYER/LACK OF LARGE SCALE FORCING...THUS IT APPEARS WW 283 WILL EXPIRE AS SCHEDULED AT 02Z. ..GUYER.. 05/04/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...OHX...HUN...MEG...JAN...LZK... 33669103 35029172 36628692 35238623 34718719 34408859 WWWW From Mcd at goshenarc.org Thu May 4 02:46:56 2006 From: Mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Wed, 03 May 2006 22:46:56 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 040246 SWOMCD SPC MCD 040246 TXZ000-OKZ000-040415- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0749 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0946 PM CDT WED MAY 03 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...SWRN OK/WRN N TX AND THE TX SOUTH PLAINS INTO THE TRANSPECOS REGION CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 285... VALID 040246Z - 040415Z SEVERE THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS PARTS OF WW...AND SHOULD SPREAD S OF WATCH IN THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO. WW WILL LIKELY BE REPLACED PRIOR TO ITS SCHEDULED 04/04Z EXPIRATION. MCC HAS EVOLVED ACROSS THE TX PANHANDLE AND INTO WRN N TX AND THE S PLAINS...WITH MOST INTENSE STORM CLUSTER -- AND MESOSCALE CIRCULATION CENTER -- OVER DICKENS/KING/GARZA/KENT/STONEWALL COUNTIES IN THE TX SOUTH PLAINS. EXTENSIVE DAMAGE AND MEASURED WIND GUSTS OVER 80 MPH HAVE BEEN REPORTED IN THIS AREA. WITH SELY LOW-LEVEL JET INCREASING...EXPECT STORMS TO CONTINUE DEVELOPING NEAR AND TO THE COOL SIDE OF OUTFLOW-ENHANCED COLD FRONT MOVING SWD ACROSS THE TX SOUTH PLAINS. GIVEN DEGREE OF INSTABILITY /2000 TO 3000 J/KG MEAN-LAYER CAPE/ AND SHEAR...SEVERE THREAT MAY CONTINUE FOR SEVERAL HOURS. ..GOSS.. 05/04/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...SJT...LUB...AMA...MAF... 32980284 35140084 35539926 34189777 33489769 32159778 31330130 32080287 WWWW From Mcd at goshenarc.org Thu May 4 03:11:58 2006 From: Mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Wed, 03 May 2006 23:11:58 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 040307 SWOMCD SPC MCD 040307 TXZ000-040430- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0750 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1007 PM CDT WED MAY 03 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...RIO GRANDE VALLEY CONCERNING...CONVECTIVE TRENDS VALID 040307Z - 040430Z LIMITED SEVERE THREAT MAY SPREAD E OF THE RIO GRANDE INTO TX...BUT WW LIKELY NOT REQUIRED AS OVERALL WEAKENING TREND WITH ONGOING CONVECTION SHOULD PERSIST. LATEST RADAR SHOWS STORMS MOVING OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NRN MEXICO AND INTO THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY ATTM...WHERE FAVORABLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS REMAINS IN PLACE. THOUGH MID-LEVEL FLOW REMAINS FAIRLY WEAK IN THIS REGION /AROUND 20 KT/...VEERING EVIDENT IN LOW-LEVEL WIND FIELD REMAINS SUPPORTIVE OF AT LEAST SOME STORM ORGANIZATION. WITH A FAIRLY STRONG SHORT-WAVE TROUGH NOW MOVING EWD TOWARD THE TX BIG BEND PER LATEST WV IMAGERY...INCREASING LARGE-SCALE UVV MAY ALLOW A FEW STORMS TO LINGER/MOVE INTO THE EDWARDS PLATEAU/HILL COUNTRY REGION...ACCOMPANIED BY A LOCAL THREAT FOR HAIL/BRIEF DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. ..GOSS.. 05/04/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...CRP...EWX... 29900166 30260042 30039927 29139857 27739902 27669971 28260025 29020059 WWWW From Mcd at goshenarc.org Thu May 4 03:15:13 2006 From: Mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Wed, 03 May 2006 23:15:13 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 040314 SWOMCD SPC MCD 040314 MOZ000-ARZ000-040445- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0751 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1014 PM CDT WED MAY 03 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...SRN MO/N-CNTRL AR CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 286... VALID 040314Z - 040445Z OVERALL WEAKENING TREND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. WW 286 MAY BE CANCELLED BEFORE ITS 06Z EXPIRATION TIME. AN ADDITIONAL WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED DOWNSTREAM OF WW 286. LINEAR MCS WHICH HAS HAD A HISTORY OF WIND DAMAGE IS NOW INTO ERN PORTIONS OF WW 286. THE MCS WEAKENED IN THE PAST HOUR AS EFFECTS OF PREVIOUS CONVECTION EARLIER TODAY ALONG WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING HAVE WORKED TO STABILIZE THE ATMOSPHERE. LATEST RUC ANALYSES INDICATE EVEN GREATER STABILITY AND INCREASING CIN FURTHER E...THUS THIS WEAKENING TREND WILL LIKELY CONTINUE. ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT INTO NRN AR IS POSSIBLE...AT THE EDGE OF A 30-35 KT LLJ /PER LZK AND SHV VAD PROFILERS/. HOWEVER...MID AND UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING IN THE WAKE OF MCV IN THE TN RIVER VALLEY AND AHEAD OF LARGE MCS IN TX PANHANDLE...WILL LIKELY MITIGATE SUSTAINED REDEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT. ..GRAMS.. 05/04/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...PAH...MEG...LSX...LZK...SGF... 36569270 37039240 37629203 37829152 37749017 37279004 36679024 36119076 35689160 35729248 36129301 WWWW From Mcd at goshenarc.org Thu May 4 03:16:07 2006 From: Mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Wed, 03 May 2006 23:16:07 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 040307 SWOMCD SPC MCD 040307 TXZ000-040430- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0750 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1007 PM CDT WED MAY 03 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...RIO GRANDE VALLEY CONCERNING...CONVECTIVE TRENDS VALID 040307Z - 040430Z LIMITED SEVERE THREAT MAY SPREAD E OF THE RIO GRANDE INTO TX...BUT WW LIKELY NOT REQUIRED AS OVERALL WEAKENING TREND WITH ONGOING CONVECTION SHOULD PERSIST. LATEST RADAR SHOWS STORMS MOVING OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NRN MEXICO AND INTO THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY ATTM...WHERE FAVORABLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS REMAINS IN PLACE. THOUGH MID-LEVEL FLOW REMAINS FAIRLY WEAK IN THIS REGION /AROUND 20 KT/...VEERING EVIDENT IN LOW-LEVEL WIND FIELD REMAINS SUPPORTIVE OF AT LEAST SOME STORM ORGANIZATION. WITH A FAIRLY STRONG SHORT-WAVE TROUGH NOW MOVING EWD TOWARD THE TX BIG BEND PER LATEST WV IMAGERY...INCREASING LARGE-SCALE UVV MAY ALLOW A FEW STORMS TO LINGER/MOVE INTO THE EDWARDS PLATEAU/HILL COUNTRY REGION...ACCOMPANIED BY A LOCAL THREAT FOR HAIL/BRIEF DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. ..GOSS.. 05/04/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...CRP...EWX... 29900166 30260042 30039927 29139857 27739902 27669971 28260025 29020059  From Mcd at goshenarc.org Thu May 4 03:20:18 2006 From: Mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Wed, 03 May 2006 23:20:18 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 040314 SWOMCD SPC MCD 040314 MOZ000-ARZ000-040445- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0751 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1014 PM CDT WED MAY 03 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...SRN MO/N-CNTRL AR CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 286... VALID 040314Z - 040445Z OVERALL WEAKENING TREND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. WW 286 MAY BE CANCELLED BEFORE ITS 06Z EXPIRATION TIME. AN ADDITIONAL WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED DOWNSTREAM OF WW 286. LINEAR MCS WHICH HAS HAD A HISTORY OF WIND DAMAGE IS NOW INTO ERN PORTIONS OF WW 286. THE MCS WEAKENED IN THE PAST HOUR AS EFFECTS OF PREVIOUS CONVECTION EARLIER TODAY ALONG WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING HAVE WORKED TO STABILIZE THE ATMOSPHERE. LATEST RUC ANALYSES INDICATE EVEN GREATER STABILITY AND INCREASING CIN FURTHER E...THUS THIS WEAKENING TREND WILL LIKELY CONTINUE. ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT INTO NRN AR IS POSSIBLE...AT THE EDGE OF A 30-35 KT LLJ /PER LZK AND SHV VAD PROFILERS/. HOWEVER...MID AND UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING IN THE WAKE OF MCV IN THE TN RIVER VALLEY AND AHEAD OF LARGE MCS IN TX PANHANDLE...WILL LIKELY MITIGATE SUSTAINED REDEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT. ..GRAMS.. 05/04/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...PAH...MEG...LSX...LZK...SGF... 36569270 37039240 37629203 37829152 37749017 37279004 36679024 36119076 35689160 35729248 36129301  From Mcd at goshenarc.org Thu May 4 06:27:29 2006 From: Mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Thu, 04 May 2006 02:27:29 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 040626 SWOMCD SPC MCD 040626 OKZ000-040800- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0752 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0126 AM CDT THU MAY 04 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL AND NRN OK CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...HEAVY RAINFALL VALID 040626Z - 040800Z HAIL AND HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL ARE INCREASING ACROSS PARTS OF CNTRL AND NRN OK THIS MORNING. WHILE OVERALL STORM COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE...THIS MAY OCCUR AT THE EXPENSE OF MORE INTENSE UPDRAFTS. A WATCH IS NOT BEING PLANNED AT THIS TIME. TSTMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ALONG AND NORTH OF A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT SETTLING ACROSS NRN OK. MEANWHILE...MATURE MCS CIRCULATION WAS MOVING EWD FROM WCNTRL OK. BOTH THESE FEATURES...IN CONCERT WITH STRONG SLY LLJ...WILL CONTINUE TO FOCUS CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT THIS MORNING WITHIN MOIST AND MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS. A LARGER MCS MAY EVOLVE ACROSS NCNTRL OK OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS WITH THIS SYSTEM THEN SPREADING ESEWD. WEAK RIDGING ALOFT...AND GENERALLY WEAK DEEP LAYER SHEAR...ARE EXPECTED TO KEEP UPDRAFT ORGANIZATION LIMITED AND LARGE HAIL POTENTIAL LOW. HOWEVER... INITIAL UNDISTURBED CELLS...SUCH AS ACTIVITY THAT DEVELOPED EARLIER IN MAYES COUNTY...AND STORM-SCALE INTERACTIONS/MERGERS...SUCH AS ONGOING CLUSTER ON THE COLD FRONT IN PAYNE COUNTY...COULD PRODUCE LARGE HAIL AND/OR BRIEF DAMAGING DOWNBURSTS. AT PRESENT...THE LACK OF STRONGER FORCING AND SHEAR SHOULD RESTRICT OVERALL SEVERE POTENTIAL. EXPECT HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL TO INCREASE OVER NCNTRL OK NEXT 1-2 HOURS AS MESOSCALE CIRCULATION DEVELOPS EAST ALONG THE COLD FRONT AND PROMOTES ADDITIONAL SLOW-MOVING DEEP MOIST CONVECTION. ..CARBIN.. 05/04/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...TSA...OUN... 35279658 35279686 35259763 35379811 35869851 36099852 36419734 36469559 36299498 35639496 WWWW From Mcd at goshenarc.org Thu May 4 08:20:33 2006 From: Mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Thu, 04 May 2006 04:20:33 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 040819 SWOMCD SPC MCD 040819 TXZ000-040915- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0753 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0319 AM CDT THU MAY 04 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...TX CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 287... VALID 040819Z - 040915Z MATURE MCS MOVING EWD/SEWD ACROSS NWRN TX HAS BECOME OUTFLOW DOMINANT ON THE SRN EDGE WITH A MARKED DECREASE IN VIL INTENSITY AND SHRINKING COVERAGE OF COLDEST CLOUD TOPS ON IR IMAGERY. LOW LEVEL INFLOW INTO AND ACROSS THE ERN LEADING EDGE OF THE COLD POOL COULD STILL MAINTAIN STOUT UPDRAFTS ACROSS PALO PINTO AND ERATH COUNTIES OVER THE NEXT HOUR. GIVEN STRONG MESOHIGH...AVAILABLE INSTABILITY... AND WELL DEVELOPED COLD POOL EMBEDDED WITHIN WEAK DEEP LAYER WLY FLOW...STRONG STORMS MAY MAKE IT TO THE WRN EDGE OF THE DFW METROPLEX IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. LATEST TRENDS SUGGEST SEVERE POTENTIAL WITH THIS CONVECTION WILL REMAIN TOO LOW FOR AN ADDITIONAL WATCH. ..CARBIN.. 05/04/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...EWX...SJT...MAF... 32199687 30929753 30499914 30660009 31150150 31870140 32450014 33079900 33479816 33519750 33209736 WWWW From Mcd at goshenarc.org Thu May 4 18:53:58 2006 From: Mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Thu, 04 May 2006 14:53:58 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 041853 SWOMCD SPC MCD 041852 TXZ000-NMZ000-042045- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0756 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0152 PM CDT THU MAY 04 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...SRN PORTIONS OF WRN TX THROUGH EXTREME SERN NM CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 041852Z - 042045Z POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORM INITIATION IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON ACROSS SRN PORTIONS OF WRN TX. SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING VERY LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREAT. ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE. A WW MAY BE NEEDED BY 21Z. EARLY THIS AFTERNOON A PRE-FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDS FROM JUST S OF ABILENE WNW TO NEAR BIG SPRING AND FARTHER W TO E OF HOBBS NM. A DRYLINE EXTENDS FROM JUST W OF SANDERSON NWD TO W OF MIDLAND. THE WARM SECTOR CONTINUES TO DESTABILIZE. SURFACE HEATING...DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S AND MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES IN EXCESS OF 8 C/KM ARE CONTRIBUTING TO MLCAPE FROM 1500 TO 2500 J/KG. THE ATMOSPHERE IS STILL CAPPED TO SURFACE BASED STORMS...AND THE 18Z RAOB FROM MIDLAND STILL SHOWED AN INVERSION BETWEEN 850 AND 700 MB ASSOCIATED WITH THE EML. HOWEVER...PERSISTENT STRONG HEATING OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD CONTINUE TO WEAKEN THE CAP. RECENT VISIBLE IMAGERY HAS SHOWN AN INCREASE IN BOUNDARY LAYER CUMULUS OVER PORTIONS OF SWRN TX DURING THE LAST HOUR. WEAK BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW...PRESENCE OF CAP...AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING SUGGEST THUNDERSTORM INITIATION MAY BE DELAYED UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON WHEN HEATING WILL HAVE WEAKENED THE CAP SUFFICIENTLY FOR STORMS TO INITIATE ALONG THE CONVERGENCE BOUNDARY. WIND FIELDS THROUGH 3 KM WILL REMAIN RATHER WEAK. HOWEVER...VERTICAL SHEAR AROUND 35 KT THROUGH THE MID LEVELS WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS GIVEN POTENTIAL FOR STRONG UPDRAFTS IMPLIED BY THE STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND MODERATE INSTABILITY. ..DIAL.. 05/04/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...FWD...SJT...LUB...MAF... 32439910 31529943 31450150 32330349 33040341 32890148 33049992 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Thu May 4 22:23:09 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Thu, 04 May 2006 18:23:09 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 042222 SWOMCD SPC MCD 042222 TXZ000-NMZ000-COZ000-050015- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0757 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0522 PM CDT THU MAY 04 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...NERN AND E CENTRAL NM/TX SOUTH PLAINS CONCERNING...CONVECTIVE TRENDS VALID 042222Z - 050015Z STORMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NERN NM...WITH CUMULUS SLOWLY INCREASING SWD ALONG THE MOUNTAINS INTO CENTRAL NM. WW NOT ANTICIPATED ATTM...THOUGH WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR CONVECTIVE TRENDS ACROSS THIS REGION AS LOW-LEVEL JET INTENSIFIES THIS EVENING. DAYTIME HEATING OVER NERN NM HAS RESULTED IN MARGINAL DESTABILIZATION NEAR AND S OF COLD FRONT LYING NW-SE ACROSS THE AREA. STORMS CONTINUE TO FORM OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN/NEAR FRONT...BUT MINIMAL INSTABILITY SHOULD GREATLY LIMIT SEVERE THREAT. HOWEVER...SELY LOW-LEVEL JET IS FORECAST TO INCREASE THIS EVENING...WHICH WILL LIKELY SUPPORT MORE WIDESPREAD CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. SHOULD STORMS INITIATE SWD INTO E CENTRAL NM LATER THIS EVENING WHERE MORE UNSTABLE AIRMASS /500 TO 1000 J/KG MEAN-LAYER CAPE/ IS IN PLACE...WW MAY BE REQUIRED. ..GOSS.. 05/04/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LUB...AMA...MAF...PUB...ABQ... 37020524 36770455 35500340 34610221 33080202 33110356 33910485 34910524 36160546 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Thu May 4 22:32:07 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Thu, 04 May 2006 18:32:07 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 042231 SWOMCD SPC MCD 042230 LAZ000-ARZ000-TXZ000-042330- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0758 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0530 PM CDT THU MAY 04 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...FAR SOUTHERN AR/EXTREME NORTHEAST TX INTO NORTHERN LA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 288... VALID 042230Z - 042330Z VALID PORTION OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH CONTINUES UNTIL 00Z...WITH PRIMARY THREAT REMAINING ACROSS NORTHERN LA/SOUTHEAST AR AND SHIFTING INTO WW 290. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY FEATURES REMNANT MCV MOVING ESE ACROSS AR AT THIS TIME. AT 2220Z...SEMI-ORGANIZED ASYMMETRIC MCS MOVING SOUTHEAST ALONG THE AR/LA BORDER...WITH SMALL SCALE VORTEX EVIDENT NEAR MONTICELLO IN DREW COUNTY AR...WITH TRAILING PORTION EXTENDING SOUTHWEST INTO FAR NORTHWEST/NORTH CENTRAL LA. IN ADDITION TO CONTINUAL ISOLATED SEVERE HAIL/WIND POTENTIAL WITH THIS MCS...ADDITIONAL PULSE-TYPE ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE SOUTH OF WW 288 AS AMBIENT AIRMASS REMAINS MODERATELY UNSTABLE ON THE FRINGE OF THE MCS. GIVEN EVENTUAL SOUTHEAST MOVEMENT OUT OF WATCH 288...AND NO ADDITIONAL SEVERE THREAT EXPECTED VIA DEVELOPMENT ABOVE COLD POOL PER MCV-WAKE SHORTWAVE RIDGING...IT APPEARS WW 288 WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AS SCHEDULED AT 00Z. ..GUYER.. 05/04/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LZK...SHV... 32539436 33349441 33199304 33719218 31789240 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Fri May 5 00:25:19 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Thu, 04 May 2006 20:25:19 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 050024 SWOMCD SPC MCD 050024 TXZ000-NMZ000-050200- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0759 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0724 PM CDT THU MAY 04 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...THE TRANSPECOS REGION OF W TX INTO CENTRAL TX CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 289... VALID 050024Z - 050200Z SEVERE THREAT -- MAINLY IN THE FORM OF LARGE HAIL -- CONTINUES ACROSS THE WW AREA. COLD FRONT CONTINUES PUSHING SWD/SSWWD ACROSS WW...SUPPORTING REDEVELOPMENT OF STORM UPDRAFTS WITHIN SMALL CLUSTER OF SEVERE STORMS OVER CENTRAL TX. MEANWHILE...NEW STORMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP N OF FRONT ACROSS SRN PORTIONS OF THE SOUTH PLAINS INTO THE TRANSPECOS REGION. MODERATE INSTABILITY PERSISTS ACROSS THIS REGION...AND PRONOUNCED VEERING WITH HEIGHT -- PARTICULARLY N OF FRONT -- IS CONTRIBUTING TO SHEAR SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELL STORMS. THIS IS CONFIRMED BY EVENING MAF /MIDLAND TX/ RAOB...WHICH REVEALS 1700 J/KG MEAN-LAYER CAPE AND 49 KT SFC-6 KM SHEAR. THUS EXPECT THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS -- CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS -- TO PERSIST...AND PERHAPS INCREASE IN COVERAGE AS LOW-LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. ..GOSS.. 05/05/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...HGX...FWD...EWX...SJT...LUB...MAF... 33410291 31679688 29789692 30940261 31900322 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Fri May 5 02:14:05 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Thu, 04 May 2006 22:14:05 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 050213 SWOMCD SPC MCD 050212 TXZ000-050345- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0760 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0912 PM CDT THU MAY 04 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF WRN AND CENTRAL TX CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 289... VALID 050212Z - 050345Z SEVERE THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS WW...AND IS SPREADING SWD. NEW WW MAY BE REQUIRED...REPLACING WW 289. LATEST RADAR SHOWS SEVERE STORMS CONTINUING IN AND NEAR WW 289...WHERE FAVORABLY UNSTABLE/SHEARED ENVIRONMENT EXISTS. AS OUTFLOW-REINFORCED FRONT CONTINUES MOVING SWD WITH STORMS FORMING JUST TO THE COOL SIDE OF BOUNDARY...IT APPEARS THAT THREAT MAY SPREAD S OF WW 289 WITH TIME AS LOW-LEVEL JET CONTINUES TO INCREASE. GIVEN FAVORABLE INSTABILITY S OF WW...THREAT MAY SPREAD SWD ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY INTO PARTS OF S TX. ..GOSS.. 05/05/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...HGX...FWD...CRP...EWX...SJT...LUB...MAF... 33840236 32329959 32319700 29719676 28449876 29310074 32070282 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Fri May 5 06:26:09 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Fri, 05 May 2006 02:26:09 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 050625 SWOMCD SPC MCD 050625 TXZ000-050830- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0761 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0125 AM CDT FRI MAY 05 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...NORTH CENTRAL TX CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 050625Z - 050830Z ...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL SPREAD INTO THE METROPLEX OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS... MCS HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS THE WRN PORTIONS OF NCNTRL TX FROM YOUNG/STEPHENS COUNTIES INTO WISE COUNTY. AN APPARENT MVC HAS EVOLVED WITHIN THIS CLUSTER ALONG THE YOUNG/STEPHENS COUNTY LINE WHICH MAY BE AIDING N-S LINE SEGMENT THAT IS MOVING EAST AT ROUGHLY 30KT. FWS VAD WINDS ARE SEEMINGLY SUPPORTIVE OF THIS TYPE OF CONVECTIVE EVOLUTION AS WINDS VEER CONSIDERABLY WITH HEIGHT...SUGGESTING WARM ADVECTION PERSISTS ACROSS THIS REGION. UNLESS N-S LINE SEGMENT WERE TO BOW AND FORCE STRONG WINDS TO THE SFC WW SHOULD NOT BE REQUIRED FOR ISOLATED LARGE HAIL-PRODUCING UPDRAFTS. ..DARROW.. 05/05/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...FWD... 33329887 33229669 32379659 32399886 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Fri May 5 17:00:39 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Fri, 05 May 2006 13:00:39 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 051659 SWOMCD SPC MCD 051659 SCZ000-GAZ000-051900- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0762 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1159 AM CDT FRI MAY 05 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL AND SRN GA THROUGH PARTS OF WRN SC CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 051659Z - 051900Z THUNDERSTORMS MAY BECOME CAPABLE OF PRODUCING ISOLATED STRONG TO DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL THIS AFTERNOON. AREA WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED. AN MCV OVER NRN AL WILL MOVE EWD INTO NRN GA TODAY. THE ATMOSPHERE IS DESTABILIZING ACROSS MUCH OF GA WITH STRONG SURFACE HEATING AND DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 60S. HOWEVER...OVERALL DEGREE OF INSTABILITY WILL BE LIMITED BY MARGINAL MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WITH MLCAPE GENERALLY AROUND 1500 J/KG EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON. FORCING FOR ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE MCV AND WEAK CAP SHOULD CONTINUE TO PROMOTE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS MUCH OF GA AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER DESTABILIZES. AMBIENT WIND AND VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES ARE UNIDIRECTIONAL WLY AND RATHER WEAK. A 30-40 KT MID LEVEL JET ON THE SRN PERIPHERY OF THE MCS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO SLIGHTLY BETTER DEEP LAYER SHEAR ACROSS PARTS OF CNTRL AND S CNTRL GA. HOWEVER...STORM MODE SHOULD REMAIN PRIMARILY MULTICELLULAR WITH POTENTIAL FOR STORMS TO EVOLVE INTO SMALL CLUSTERS OR LINE SEGMENTS AS THEY SPREAD EWD. THOUGH SOME HAIL MAY ACCOMPANY THE STRONGER CORES...THE WEAK MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND MODEST INSTABILITY SHOULD LIMIT HAIL SIZE. PRIMARY THREAT IS EXPECTED TO BE ISOLATED STRONG TO DAMAGING WIND GUSTS PROMOTED BY INVERTED-V BOUNDARY LAYERS. ACTIVITY WILL DEVELOP EWD INTO SC LATER THIS AFTERNOON. ..DIAL.. 05/05/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...CHS...CAE...JAX...FFC...TAE... 31018454 32458431 33318461 33818384 33838224 32958102 31468160 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Fri May 5 17:35:18 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Fri, 05 May 2006 13:35:18 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 051734 SWOMCD SPC MCD 051733 LAZ000-MSZ000-051830- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0763 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1233 PM CDT FRI MAY 05 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF SRN LA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 051733Z - 051830Z SCT TSTMS DEVELOPING OVER THE AREA MAY POSE A THREAT FOR DMGG WINDS AND SVR HAIL. A WW MAY BE NEEDED SHORTLY. LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS AN OUTFLOW BNDRY EXTENDING FROM AVOYELLES PARISH SEWD TOWARDS TERREBONNE PARISH. CONVECTION WAS DEVELOPING ALONG THIS BDRY AND ALSO ALONG THE GULF BREEZE FRONT OVER SCENTRAL/SWRN LA. MODERATE INSTABILITY HAS DEVELOPED WEST OF THE OUTFLOW BNDRY WITH MLCAPES FROM 1500-2000 J/KG OVER MUCH OF SRN LA. MODERATE MID LEVEL FLOW NOTED ON AREA VWP/S ON THE SRN PERIPHERY OF AN MCV OVER NRN LA ALONG WITH ELY LOW LEVEL FLOW ALONG THE OUTFLOW SHOULD SUPPORT AROUND 35 KTS OF EFFECTIVE SHEAR. THIS MAY SUPPORT LOOSELY ORGANIZED UPDRAFTS THAT EXHIBIT BRIEF SUPERCELLULAR STRUCTURE GIVEN THE INSTABILITY IN PLACE. SEWD STORM MOTIONS ALONG THE OUTFLOW BNDRY COMBINED WITH STABLE AIR EAST OF THE OUTFLOW BDRY OVER SERN LA WILL LIMIT THE THREAT FOR SVR STORMS EAST/NORTH OF LAKE PONCHARTRAIN. ..CROSBIE.. 05/05/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...JAN...LIX...LCH... 31179263 31069161 30709095 29978989 29468924 29068959 29189111 29589209 29699332 29909368 30979276 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Fri May 5 17:37:36 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Fri, 05 May 2006 13:37:36 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 051736 SWOMCD SPC MCD 051736 TXZ000-NMZ000-051900- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0764 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1236 PM CDT FRI MAY 05 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...SERN NM THROUGH PART OF SWRN TX CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 051736Z - 051900Z THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS SERN NM INTO PARTS OF SWRN TX BY MID AFTERNOON. SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING VERY LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREATS. A TORNADO WATCH WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR THIS AREA BY 18-19Z. EARLY THIS AFTERNOON A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM N CNTRL TX WSWWD INTO SWRN TX NEAR MIDLAND THEN NWWD AS A STATIONARY FRONT INTO SERN NM. AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY EXTENDS FROM S CNTRL TX NWWD TO NEAR SAN ANGELO TO NEAR BIG SPRING WHERE IT INTERSECTS THE COLD FRONT. THE 12Z RAOB FROM MIDLAND SHOWS 8 C/KM 700-500 MB LAPSE RATES AND SUGGESTS THE CAP SHOULD BE SUFFICIENTLY WEAK FOR INITIATION IN THE VICINITY OF THE BOUNDARIES AS TEMPERATURES APPROACH 80 F. WITH STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES IN PLACE ABOVE AN AXIS OF 55-60 F DEWPOINTS...THE ATMOSPHERE WILL CONTINUE TO DESTABILIZE WITH MLCAPE FROM 2500 TO 3000 J/KG POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON. WV IMAGERY SHOWS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING EWD THROUGH NM. FORCING FOR ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE WILL GRADUALLY SPREAD EWD THROUGH THE HIGH PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON. THIS IN CONJUNCTION WITH UPSLOPE SELY COMPONENT ACROSS SERN NM SHOULD SUPPORT THUNDERSTORM INITIATION OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. OTHER STORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP FARTHER SE ALONG SURFACE BOUNDARIES ACROSS SWRN TX AND EXTREME SERN NM. LOW LEVEL AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR PROFILES WILL SUPPORT SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING VERY LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED TORNADOES. TORNADO THREAT MAY BE ENHANCED WHERE STORMS INTERACT WITH THE PRE-EXISTING BOUNDARIES. ..DIAL.. 05/05/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...SJT...LUB...MAF...ABQ...EPZ... 30840000 31250294 32080437 33310540 33770441 32560237 31689972 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Fri May 5 20:15:13 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Fri, 05 May 2006 16:15:13 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 052014 SWOMCD SPC MCD 052013 LAZ000-052145- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0765 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0313 PM CDT FRI MAY 05 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...SCENTRAL/SWRN LA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 292... VALID 052013Z - 052145Z SVR THREAT HAS DIMINISHED OVER NERN PORTION OF WW 292. A MARGINAL SVR THREAT WILL LIKELY CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT FEW HRS OVER WRN PORTIONS OF WW 292...WITH SOME POTENTIAL FOR NEW ISOLATED SVR DEVELOPMENT JUST WEST OF WW 292 IN SWRN/WCENTRAL LA. SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY MAY MOVE INTO WW 292 BEFORE 23Z. LATEST VISIBLE SAT IMAGERY SHOWS A STABILIZED AIRMASS OVER NERN PORTION OF WW 292 /NORTH OF THE BTR AREA/ CREATED IN THE WAKE OF EARLIER SVR STORMS. WITH LACK OF A WELL DEFINED BOUNDARY... ADDITIONAL SVR THREAT APPEARS LIMITED IN THIS REGION AND THE AREA WILL LIKELY BE CLEARED SHORTLY FROM WW 292. A MORE DEFINED SVR THREAT REMAINS OVER SCENTRAL LA ALONG OUTFLOW/GULF BREEZE BOUNDARY INTERSECTIONS...AS CONVERGENCE ENHANCES UPDRAFT STRENGTH. MODEST MID LEVEL FLOW WILL REMAIN IN AREA IN THE WAKE OF AN MCV MOVING INTO SWRN MS ALSO SUPPORTING THE SVR THREAT. THERE WILL ALSO BE AN ISOLATED SVR THREAT ALONG THE OLD OUTFLOW BNDRY/FRONTAL INTERSECTION FURTHER WEST OVER WCENTRAL LA. HOWEVER...A NEW WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED WEST OF WW 292 GIVEN THE EXPECTED MARGINAL NATURE OF THIS SVR THREAT. ..CROSBIE.. 05/05/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LIX...LCH... 29199195 30079258 30489317 31079342 31249296 31089207 30809157 30239091 29249015 29189028 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Fri May 5 20:36:04 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Fri, 05 May 2006 16:36:04 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 052035 SWOMCD SPC MCD 052034 TXZ000-052230- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0766 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0334 PM CDT FRI MAY 05 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...SRN PORTIONS OF SWRN TX THROUGH PART OF S TX CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 052034Z - 052230Z THUNDERSTORMS MAY INTENSIFY AS THEY SPREAD EWD OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN NEAR THE BIG BEND AREA OF SWRN TX. SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL AND AN ISOLATED TORNADO OR TWO WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS. PORTIONS OF S TX BETWEEN SAN ANTONIO AND HONDO ARE ALSO BEING MONITORED FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. A WW MIGHT BE NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF THESE AREAS WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO. THIS AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS WERE DEVELOPING OVER THE MOUNTAINS OF SWRN TX JUST E OF MARA. THE ATMOSPHERE CONTINUES TO DESTABILIZE JUST E OF THIS ACTIVITY WITH STRONG SURFACE HEATING...STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 60S SUPPORTING MLCAPE FROM 2000 TO 2500 J/KG. SELY LOW LEVEL FLOW AND WEAKENING CAP MAY HELP TO SUSTAIN ACTIVITY AS IT MOVES EWD. FARTHER E...AN OLD CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY EXTENDS ACROSS PARTS OF S TX FROM NEAR HONDO NWWD TO NEAR SAN ANGELO. CUMULUS CONTINUES TO INCREASE IN THE VICINITY OF THIS BOUNDARY WHERE THE CAP IS WEAKENING AND THE ATMOSPHERE IS MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH MLCAPE FROM 2000 TO 2500 J/KG. IF INITIATION OCCURS...SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL AND POSSIBLY AN ISOLATED TORNADO OR TWO WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREATS. ..DIAL.. 05/05/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...EWX...SJT...MAF... 28869902 29229990 29780140 29830266 30230299 30640285 30840233 30310150 30109923 29279838 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Fri May 5 20:36:20 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Fri, 05 May 2006 16:36:20 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 052035 SWOMCD SPC MCD 052035 TXZ000-052230- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0767 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0335 PM CDT FRI MAY 05 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...SRN PORTIONS OF SWRN TX THROUGH PART OF S TX CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 052035Z - 052230Z THUNDERSTORMS MAY INTENSIFY AS THEY SPREAD EWD OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN NEAR THE BIG BEND AREA OF SWRN TX. SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL AND AN ISOLATED TORNADO OR TWO WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS. PORTIONS OF S TX BETWEEN SAN ANTONIO AND HONDO ARE ALSO BEING MONITORED FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. A WW MIGHT BE NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF THESE AREAS WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO. THIS AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS WERE DEVELOPING OVER THE MOUNTAINS OF SWRN TX JUST E OF MARFA. THE ATMOSPHERE CONTINUES TO DESTABILIZE JUST E OF THIS ACTIVITY WITH STRONG SURFACE HEATING...STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 60S SUPPORTING MLCAPE FROM 2000 TO 2500 J/KG. SELY LOW LEVEL FLOW AND WEAKENING CAP MAY HELP TO SUSTAIN ACTIVITY AS IT MOVES EWD. FARTHER E...AN OLD CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY EXTENDS ACROSS PARTS OF S TX FROM NEAR HONDO NWWD TO NEAR SAN ANGELO. CUMULUS CONTINUES TO INCREASE IN THE VICINITY OF THIS BOUNDARY WHERE THE CAP IS WEAKENING AND THE ATMOSPHERE IS MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH MLCAPE FROM 2000 TO 2500 J/KG. IF INITIATION OCCURS...SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL AND POSSIBLY AN ISOLATED TORNADO OR TWO WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREATS. ..DIAL.. 05/05/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...EWX...SJT...MAF... 28869902 29229990 29780140 29830266 30230299 30640285 30840233 30310150 30109923 29279838 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Fri May 5 20:38:34 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Fri, 05 May 2006 16:38:34 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 052035 SWOMCD SPC MCD 052034 TXZ000-052230- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0766 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0334 PM CDT FRI MAY 05 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...SRN PORTIONS OF SWRN TX THROUGH PART OF S TX CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 052034Z - 052230Z THUNDERSTORMS MAY INTENSIFY AS THEY SPREAD EWD OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN NEAR THE BIG BEND AREA OF SWRN TX. SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL AND AN ISOLATED TORNADO OR TWO WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS. PORTIONS OF S TX BETWEEN SAN ANTONIO AND HONDO ARE ALSO BEING MONITORED FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. A WW MIGHT BE NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF THESE AREAS WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO. THIS AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS WERE DEVELOPING OVER THE MOUNTAINS OF SWRN TX JUST E OF MARA. THE ATMOSPHERE CONTINUES TO DESTABILIZE JUST E OF THIS ACTIVITY WITH STRONG SURFACE HEATING...STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 60S SUPPORTING MLCAPE FROM 2000 TO 2500 J/KG. SELY LOW LEVEL FLOW AND WEAKENING CAP MAY HELP TO SUSTAIN ACTIVITY AS IT MOVES EWD. FARTHER E...AN OLD CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY EXTENDS ACROSS PARTS OF S TX FROM NEAR HONDO NWWD TO NEAR SAN ANGELO. CUMULUS CONTINUES TO INCREASE IN THE VICINITY OF THIS BOUNDARY WHERE THE CAP IS WEAKENING AND THE ATMOSPHERE IS MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH MLCAPE FROM 2000 TO 2500 J/KG. IF INITIATION OCCURS...SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL AND POSSIBLY AN ISOLATED TORNADO OR TWO WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREATS. ..DIAL.. 05/05/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...EWX...SJT...MAF... 28869902 29229990 29780140 29830266 30230299 30640285 30840233 30310150 30109923 29279838  From mcd at goshenarc.org Fri May 5 20:38:38 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Fri, 05 May 2006 16:38:38 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 052035 SWOMCD SPC MCD 052035 TXZ000-052230- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0767 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0335 PM CDT FRI MAY 05 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...SRN PORTIONS OF SWRN TX THROUGH PART OF S TX CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 052035Z - 052230Z THUNDERSTORMS MAY INTENSIFY AS THEY SPREAD EWD OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN NEAR THE BIG BEND AREA OF SWRN TX. SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL AND AN ISOLATED TORNADO OR TWO WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS. PORTIONS OF S TX BETWEEN SAN ANTONIO AND HONDO ARE ALSO BEING MONITORED FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. A WW MIGHT BE NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF THESE AREAS WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO. THIS AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS WERE DEVELOPING OVER THE MOUNTAINS OF SWRN TX JUST E OF MARFA. THE ATMOSPHERE CONTINUES TO DESTABILIZE JUST E OF THIS ACTIVITY WITH STRONG SURFACE HEATING...STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 60S SUPPORTING MLCAPE FROM 2000 TO 2500 J/KG. SELY LOW LEVEL FLOW AND WEAKENING CAP MAY HELP TO SUSTAIN ACTIVITY AS IT MOVES EWD. FARTHER E...AN OLD CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY EXTENDS ACROSS PARTS OF S TX FROM NEAR HONDO NWWD TO NEAR SAN ANGELO. CUMULUS CONTINUES TO INCREASE IN THE VICINITY OF THIS BOUNDARY WHERE THE CAP IS WEAKENING AND THE ATMOSPHERE IS MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH MLCAPE FROM 2000 TO 2500 J/KG. IF INITIATION OCCURS...SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL AND POSSIBLY AN ISOLATED TORNADO OR TWO WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREATS. ..DIAL.. 05/05/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...EWX...SJT...MAF... 28869902 29229990 29780140 29830266 30230299 30640285 30840233 30310150 30109923 29279838  From mcd at goshenarc.org Fri May 5 22:13:56 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Fri, 05 May 2006 18:13:56 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 052213 SWOMCD SPC MCD 052212 LAZ000-052315- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0768 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0512 PM CDT FRI MAY 05 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...SRN LA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 292... VALID 052212Z - 052315Z ISOLATED SVR STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO POSE A THREAT FOR DMGG WINDS/LARGE HAIL OVER WRN PORTIONS OF WW 292. SVR THREAT MAY EXTEND LOCALLY FOR AN HOUR OR SO BEYOND 23Z /WW 292 EXPIRATION TIME/ BUT A NEW WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED. MOST OF THE ERN HALF OF WW 219 HAS SEEN THE EFFECTS OF PREVIOUS CONVECTION HELP STABILIZE THE AIRMASS AND END THE SVR THREAT. FURTHER WEST...THE AIRMASS OVER WRN PORTIONS OF WW 292 WWD INTO SWRN/WCENTRAL LA REMAINS MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH MLCAPES AROUND 2000 J/KG. CONVECTION SHOULD CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ALONG AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY THAT WAS SLOWLY MOVING WWD OVER FAR WRN PORTIONS OF WW 292. A SVR STORM EXHIBITING SUPERCELL CHARACTERISTICS OVER WCENTRAL LA SHOULD MOVE SEWD ALONG THIS BOUNDARY AND INTO THE NWRN PORTION OF WW 292 IN THE NEXT HALF HR. AS THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO MOVE WWD IT SHOULD EVENTUALLY UNDERCUT ALL THE CONVECTION IN THE REGION. THUS THE ORGANIZED SVR THREAT SHOULD BEGIN TO DIMINISH WITHIN THE NEXT HR OR SO AND IT DOES NOT APPEAR NECESSARY FOR A NEW WW BEYOND 23Z. ..CROSBIE.. 05/05/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LIX...LCH... 31079245 31189283 31149301 30549293 30109272 29829252 29179185 29189089 29559080 29709121 29899159 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Fri May 5 23:50:59 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Fri, 05 May 2006 19:50:59 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 052349 SWOMCD SPC MCD 052349 TXZ000-NMZ000-060115- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0769 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0649 PM CDT FRI MAY 05 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...SERN NM/TX SOUTH PLAINS AND TRANSPECOS REGION INTO CENTRAL TX CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 293...294... VALID 052349Z - 060115Z SEVERE/TORNADO THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS WW 293 AND 294...AND MAY SPREAD EWD INTO CENTRAL N TX. NEW WW LIKELY WITHIN THE HOUR. THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO INCREASE -- MAINLY ON THE COOL SIDE OF SURFACE BOUNDARY EXTENDING WNW-ESE ACROSS THE TRANSPECOS AND INTO CENTRAL TX. SHEAR REMAINS QUITE FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS...WITH NUMEROUS STORMS SHOWING SUPERCELL CHARACTERISTICS. THOUGH TORNADO THREAT CONTINUES -- PARTICULARLY NEAR SURFACE FRONT...GREATER THREAT ATTM REMAINS LARGE HAIL GIVEN ELEVATED NATURE OF CONVECTION. THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS SHOULD INCREASE WITH TIME AS WELL...AS INCREASING ESELY LOW-LEVEL JET MAY ALLOW STORMS TO ORGANIZE INTO A FORWARD-PROPAGATING MCS AND MOVE RAPIDLY ESEWD ALONG FRONT. ..GOSS.. 05/05/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...EWX...SJT...LUB...AMA...MAF...ABQ... 34820390 34630190 33329676 30169906 31660377 33590422 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Sat May 6 00:28:13 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Fri, 05 May 2006 20:28:13 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 060027 SWOMCD SPC MCD 060026 TXZ000-060230- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0770 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0726 PM CDT FRI MAY 05 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...SCENTRAL/SWRN TX CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 295... VALID 060026Z - 060230Z CONTINUE ALL WW 295. ISOLATED SVR STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND MOVE ESEWD OVER PORTIONS OF WW 295 DURING THE NEXT FEW HRS...PRIMARILY ALONG AND EAST OF AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY EXTENDING N-S FROM KERR COUNTY SWD TO ATASCOSA COUNTIES. PRIMARY SVR THREAT WILL BE VERY LARGE HAIL AND DMGG WINDS...ALTHOUGH AN ISOLATED TORNADO CAN NOT BE RULED OUT. LATEST VWP FROM EWX INDICATES STRONGLY LOOPING LOW LEVEL HODOGRAPH INDICATIVE OF AN INCREASING LOW LEVEL JET. MODERATE TO EXTREME INSTABILITY WITH MLCAPES AROUND 3000 J/KG ALONG WITH MODEST DEEP LAYER SHEAR /40 KTS/ WILL SUPPORT A CONTINUED THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL/DMGG WINDS WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS. RECENT SAT IMAGERY SHOWS MDT CU ALONG AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM ATASCOSA COUNTY NWD TO KERR COUNTY INDICATING THAT ADDITIONAL SVR STORMS MIGHT DEVELOP IN THE NEXT FEW HRS IN THE ERN PORTION OF WW 295. GIVEN MORE STABLE AIR IN PLACE OVER AREAS EAST OF THE HILL COUNTRY...THE POSSIBILITY FOR AN ORGANIZED SVR THREAT EAST OF WW 295 REMAINS UNCERTAIN. HOWEVER AREA WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF ANOTHER WW IN A FEW HRS. FURTHER WEST...A LONE SUPERCELL STORM OVER TERRELL COUNTY WILL MOVE ESEWD AROUND 25 KTS AND INTO SRN CROCKETT AND NWRN VAL VERDE COUNTIES THROUGH 02Z. THE 00Z DRT SOUNDING INDICATED MINOR MLCINH. AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER CONTINUES TO COOL...THIS STORM IS NOT LIKELY TO LAST MUCH BEYOND 03Z. SAT TRENDS INDICATE A DIMINISHING THREAT FOR NEW SVR TSTM DEVELOPMENT WEST OF THIS STORM ACROSS PECOS COUNTY. THEREFORE THIS COUNTY LIKELY CAN BE CLEARED FROM WW 295 BY 0130Z. ..CROSBIE.. 05/06/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...CRP...EWX...SJT...MAF... 30720239 29130254 28719785 30639789 30719983 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Sat May 6 04:17:01 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Sat, 06 May 2006 00:17:01 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 060415 SWOMCD SPC MCD 060415 TXZ000-060545- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0771 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1115 PM CDT FRI MAY 05 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...NRN PORTIONS OF THE TRANSPECOS REGION INTO CENTRAL TX CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 297... VALID 060415Z - 060545Z SEVERE/TORNADO THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS WW -- WITH NEW WW POSSIBLE AS STORMS APPROACH THE ERN/SERN FRINGES OF WW. BOW ECHO CONTINUES MOVING ESEWD AT 30 TO 35 KT ACROSS WRN N TX...WHILE ADDITIONAL STORMS -- BOTH AHEAD OF AND BEHIND THE BOW -- CONTINUE TO DEVELOP. STRONGEST/SUPERCELLULAR CONVECTION CONTINUES AHEAD OF THE BOW ECHO...WHERE THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL PERSISTS. GREATEST THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL GENERALLY REMAIN CONFINED TO STORMS ON SRN FRINGE OF CONVECTIVE CLUSTER...CLOSER TO THE SURFACE FRONT WHERE CONVECTION IS LESS ELEVATED. THOUGH A SLOW WEAKENING TREND IS ANTICIPATED OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS STORMS ENCOUNTER LESS UNSTABLE AIRMASS IN PLACE ACROSS CENTRAL AND ERN TX...A LIMITED SEVERE THREAT WILL LIKELY PERSIST FOR SEVERAL HOURS. ..GOSS.. 05/06/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...HGX...FWD...EWX...SJT...MAF... 32930117 32619688 31329501 30529511 30549706 31110126 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Sat May 6 07:33:08 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Sat, 06 May 2006 03:33:08 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 060732 SWOMCD SPC MCD 060731 TXZ000-060900- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0772 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0231 AM CDT SAT MAY 06 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL TX CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 298...299... VALID 060731Z - 060900Z ...SEVERE SQUALL LINE WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF CENTRAL TX... AN EXPANSIVE PRECIPITATION SHIELD HAS DEVELOPED IN THE WAKE OF SEVERE SQUALL LINE ADVANCING SEWD ACROSS CNTRL TX. ALONG THE LEADING EDGE...FAST MOVING EMBEDDED ECHOES REMAIN CONDUCE TO PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS AS THEY INGEST RICHER BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE IN PLACE ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAINS. IN ADDITION...UPDRAFTS CONTINUE TO PRODUCE VERY LARGE HAIL...ALTHOUGH THERE MAY BE A SLIGHT DECREASE IN OVERALL INTENSITY OVER THE LAST HOUR OR SO. AT ANY RATE...WELL ORGANIZED MCS WILL CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE TOWARD SERN TX WHERE LLJ IS EXPECTED TO REFOCUS BY SUNRISE. IN ADDITION...FORECAST SOUNDINGS ACROSS THIS REGION EXHIBIT MUCH WEAKER INHIBITION THUS BOUNDARY LAYER CONVECTION WILL BE EASIER TO MAINTAIN ACROSS THIS REGION. ..DARROW.. 05/06/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...HGX...FWD...EWX...SJT... 30839965 30549826 30729728 31549601 30889541 29689692 29839855 30459984 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Sat May 6 11:49:42 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Sat, 06 May 2006 07:49:42 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 061148 SWOMCD SPC MCD 061148 LAZ000-TXZ000-061245- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0773 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0648 AM CDT SAT MAY 06 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...SERN TX...SWRN LA CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 299... VALID 061148Z - 061245Z ...SQUALL LINE WILL PROGRESS ACROSS SERN TX INTO SWRN LA OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME... LIMITED INSTABILITY DOWNSTREAM FROM ADVANCING MCS WILL PROVE DETRIMENTAL TO UPDRAFT INTENSITY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS PORTIONS OF LA WHERE MUCAPE IS GENERALLY AOB 1000J/KG. BROKEN SQUALL LINE HAS RECENTLY PRODUCED SEVERE WIND GUSTS IN THE GREATER HOUSTON AREA...HOWEVER THESE HIGH WINDS WERE ASSOCIATED WITH STRONGEST CONVECTIVE SURGE THAT SHOULD MOVE OFF THE UPPER TX COAST WITHIN THE HOUR. EWD PUSH INTO LA WILL BE MUCH WEAKER...AND GIVEN INSTABILITY TRENDS THERE IS NO REASON TO BELIEVE SQUALL LINE WILL MAINTAIN SEVERE INTENSITY...OR DEVELOP DAMAGING WINDS PRIOR TO BOUNDARY LAYER HEATING LATER THIS MORNING. AT THIS TIME DO NOT ANTICIPATE ISSUING A WATCH FOR THIS ACTIVITY. ..DARROW.. 05/06/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LCH...SHV...HGX... 29349511 31199426 31509324 29609254 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Sat May 6 15:06:10 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Sat, 06 May 2006 11:06:10 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 061504 SWOMCD SPC MCD 061503 MSZ000-LAZ000-061700- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0774 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1003 AM CDT SAT MAY 06 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...S CNTRL THROUGH SERN LA THROUGH EXTREME SRN MS CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 061503Z - 061700Z THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN INTENSITY NEXT FEW HOURS ACROSS S CNTRL THROUGH SERN LA AND POSSIBLY INTO PARTS OF SRN MS. THREATS WILL INCLUDE ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND...LARGE HAIL AND POSSIBLY ISOLATED TORNADOES. AREA IS BEING MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE WW. THIS MORNING A SQUALL LINE EXTENDS ACROSS WRN LA MOVING EWD. A RETREATING FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE NRN GULF WNWWD THROUGH SERN AND INTO S CNTRL LA WHERE IT INTERSECT THE EWD ADVANCING SQUALL LINE. ANVIL CIRRUS IS LIMITING BOUNDARY LAYER HEATING...BUT A SLOW WARMING INTO THE LOWER 80S IS EXPECTED NEXT FEW HOURS. THIS ALONG WITH RICH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ALONG AND S OF RETREATING BOUNDARY WILL CONTRIBUTE TO MLCAPE FROM 1500 TO 2000 J/KG. FORCING FOR ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH EWD ADVANCING MCV AND WEAK CAP SHOULD CONTINUE TO PROMOTE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ALONG AND E OF SQUALL LINE AS WELL AS IN VICINITY OF NWD RETREATING FRONT. A MID LEVEL JET ACCOMPANYING THE MCV WILL PROVIDE DEEP LAYER SHEAR SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELLS. LOW LEVEL WIND FIELDS ARE NOT PARTICULARLY STRONG. HOWEVER...ESELY FLOW NEAR THE SURFACE VEERING TO SLY AT 20 TO 25 KT AROUND 1 KM MAY RESULT IN SUFFICIENT 0-1 KM HELICITY FOR LOW LEVEL MESOCYCLONE FORMATION AND A POTENTIAL THREAT FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES...ESPECIALLY WITH ANY STORMS INTERACTING WITH THE E-W BOUNDARY. OTHERWISE...LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND MAY ACCOMPANY SOME OF THE STRONGER STORMS. ..DIAL.. 05/06/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...JAN...LIX...LCH... 29218977 29849260 31049253 31109014 30248894 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Sat May 6 17:12:19 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Sat, 06 May 2006 13:12:19 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 061711 SWOMCD SPC MCD 061711 TXZ000-061915- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0775 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1211 PM CDT SAT MAY 06 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL THROUGH S CNTRL TX CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 061711Z - 061915Z THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS PARTS OF CNTRL THROUGH S CNTRL TX THIS AFTERNOON. SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREATS. A WW MIGHT BE NEED FOR THIS AREA BY MID AFTERNOON. AT MID-DAY A LARGE CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY EXTENDS FROM SRN TX NEAR CORPUS CHRISTI WNWWD TO S OF DEL RIO THEN NWD TO S OF SAN ANGELO AND EWD TO NEAR KILEEN. N OF THIS BOUNDARY A SYNOPTIC FRONT EXTENDS FROM ERN TX NEAR LUFKIN WWD TO NEAR SAN ANGELO THEN SWWD TO WEST OF SANDERSON. MUCH OF CNTRL TX HAS BEEN TEMPORARILY STABILIZED BY PREVIOUS CONVECTION. HOWEVER...SUBSTANTIAL CLEARING IS DEVELOPING OVER MUCH OF THIS AREA. CONTINUED WARMING OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD SUPPORT MODERATE INSTABILITY THIS AFTERNOON WITH MLCAPE AROUND 2000 J/KG. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS NOTED MOVING EWD THROUGH THE TX PANHANDLE AND WRN OK. THE LOW LEVEL FLOW AND 0-2 KM SHEAR ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN MODEST. HOWEVER...A MID LEVEL JET ON THE SRN PERIPHERY OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL CONTRIBUTE TO EFFECTIVE DEEP LAYER SHEAR AROUND 40-50 KT...SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELLS. THE POTENTIAL FOR SURFACE BASED STORMS WILL INCREASE NEXT FEW HOURS IN VICINITY OF THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ACROSS CNTRL TX AS THE ATMOSPHERE DESTABILIZES AND THE CAP WEAKENS. ..DIAL.. 05/06/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...FWD...EWX...SJT... 31589911 31169781 30239807 29509932 29730107 30970078 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Sat May 6 19:32:47 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Sat, 06 May 2006 15:32:47 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 061931 SWOMCD SPC MCD 061931 TXZ000-062130- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0776 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0231 PM CDT SAT MAY 06 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...DEEP SOUTH TX CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 061931Z - 062130Z ISOLATED SVR STORMS MAY DEVELOP ALONG AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ACROSS DEEP SOUTH TX IN THE NEXT FEW HRS. AREA WILL BE MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE WW. SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A WEAK MESOLOW SOUTH OF LRD WITH AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY EXTENDING EWD FROM THE LOW TO NEAR BKS AND MOVING SLOWLY SWD. AIRMASS SOUTH OF THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WAS VERY UNSTABLE WITH MLCAPES AROUND 3500 J/KG. RECENT OBSERVATIONS ALONG WITH SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT THERE STILL REMAINS SOME CIN ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR. HOWEVER A FEW MORE HRS OF HEATING AND CONVERGENCE ALONG THE OUTFLOW BNDRY MAY BE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT ISOLATED TSTM DEVELOPMENT. MODERATE MID LEVEL FLOW COMBINED WITH THE INSTABILITY WILL SUPPORT A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR SUPERCELL STORMS WITH LARGE HAIL/DMGG WINDS. VWP DATA FROM CRP AND BRO SHOWS A MODEST LOW LEVEL SHEAR WITH 0-1 KM SRH FROM 100-200 J/KG. THIS COMBINED WITH RELATIVELY LOW LCL HEIGHTS SUGGESTS THAT IF ANY DISCRETE STORMS DO DEVELOP THEY MIGHT BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING ISOLATED TORNADOES /ESPECIALLY IF THEY MOVE PARALLEL THE OUTFLOW BNDRY/. ..CROSBIE.. 05/06/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...CRP...BRO... 25899750 26379895 26689925 27259950 27569956 27759944 27519819 27319745 26899718 26039705 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Sat May 6 22:36:56 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Sat, 06 May 2006 18:36:56 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 062235 SWOMCD SPC MCD 062235 TXZ000-070000- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0777 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0535 PM CDT SAT MAY 06 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF CNTRL TX CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 301... VALID 062235Z - 070000Z IN WAKE OF CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW...ENOUGH HEATING OCCURRED NEAR/JUST AHEAD OF WEAK SURFACE FRONT TO CONTRIBUTE TO MODERATE INSTABILITY EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON...NORTH OF THE HILL COUNTRY INTO THE EDWARDS PLATEAU. THIS HAS SUPPORTED ISOLATED VIGOROUS THUNDERSTORMS ON SOUTHERN FRINGE OF 50+ KT CYCLONIC MID-LEVEL JET...WHICH IS PROVIDING SUFFICIENT DEEP LAYER SHEAR FOR UPDRAFT ROTATION. HOWEVER...MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE ACTUALLY STABILIZING IN SUBSIDENT REGIME TO THE SOUTH OF JET...AND THIS APPEARS TO BE INHIBITING OVERALL STRENGTH OF CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. STILL...SOME HAIL/GUSTY WINDS REMAIN POSSIBLE IN STORMS EAST OF JUNCTION...AND ADDITIONAL STORMS APPEAR POSSIBLE THROUGH 00-01Z IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO JUNCTION...NEAR DRY LINE/FRONTAL INTERSECTION. ..KERR.. 05/06/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...FWD...EWX...SJT... 30769949 31239823 31209780 30759761 30159789 29919847 29839913 30159976 30750008 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Sun May 7 01:24:52 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Sat, 06 May 2006 21:24:52 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 070124 SWOMCD SPC MCD 070123 TXZ000-070230- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0778 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0823 PM CDT SAT MAY 06 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF S CNTRL TX CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 301... VALID 070123Z - 070230Z REMAINING VALID PORTION OF WW MAY BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 02Z. NARROW LINGERING TONGUE OF HEATED MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER EAST OF DRY LINE...AND SOUTH OF SURFACE FRONT...TO THE WEST NORTHWEST OF SAN ANTONIO...MAY REMAIN SUPPORTIVE OF VIGOROUS CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ANOTHER HOUR OR TWO. HOWEVER... POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS APPEARS TO BE DECREASING WITH LOSS OF INSOLATION. GIVEN CONTINUING MID-LEVEL SUBSIDENCE IN WAKE OF SOUTHERN STREAM TROUGH...AND WEAK LOW-LEVEL FORCING...RISK FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT BEYOND THE 02-03Z TIME FRAME APPEARS LOW. ..KERR.. 05/07/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...EWX...SJT... 30030011 30189967 30329934 30409891 30099863 29489919 29569980 29700012 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Sun May 7 14:57:36 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Sun, 07 May 2006 10:57:36 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 071456 SWOMCD SPC MCD 071456 SCZ000-GAZ000-FLZ000-ALZ000-071700- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0779 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0956 AM CDT SUN MAY 07 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...SRN AL...THE WRN AND CNTRL FL PANHANDLE...SRN AND S CNTRL GA AND SWRN SC CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 071456Z - 071700Z THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSIFY ACROSS PARTS OF SRN AL...SRN AND S CNTRL GA...THE WRN AND CNTRL FL PANHANDLE INTO SWRN SC LATER THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND AND HAIL WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREATS. A WW MIGHT BE NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF THIS AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS. A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM CNTRL SC WWD THROUGH N CNTRL GA AND INTO CNTRL AL THEN SWWD TO SERN MS. A LINE OF PRE-FRONTAL THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDS FROM SERN MS THROUGH SRN AL INTO N CNTRL GA. MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE RATHER MODEST. HOWEVER...RICH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S IS ADVECTING NEWD THROUGH THE WARM SECTOR THAT WILL EXPERIENCE SURFACE HEATING THIS AFTERNOON. MODERATE INSTABILITY WITH MLCAPE AROUND 1500 J/KG IS EXPECTED. STORMS WILL LIKELY INTENSIFY INTO THE AFTERNOON AS THEY DEVELOP EWD INTO THE DESTABILIZING BOUNDARY LAYER. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH AXIS FROM THE TN VALLEY SWD INTO AL WILL CONTINUE EWD THROUGH THE SERN U.S. TODAY. LOW LEVEL SHEAR WILL BE LIMITED BY A RATHER MODEST LOW LEVEL JET AND UNIDIRECTIONAL NATURE OF THE VERTICAL WIND PROFILES. HOWEVER A 50 KT UPPER JET ACCOMPANYING THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL SUPPORT 0-6 KM SHEAR OF 35 TO 45 KT. MIXED MODE STORM TYPES ARE EXPECTED... INCLUDING MULTICELL LINE SEGMENTS/CLUSTERS WITH BOW ECHOES AS WELL AS SOME SUPERCELL STRUCTURES POSSIBLE. ..DIAL.. 05/07/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...CHS...CAE...JAX...FFC...TAE...BMX...MOB... 30848684 32028480 33028374 33058148 32278086 30818239 30358478 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Sun May 7 18:24:19 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Sun, 07 May 2006 14:24:19 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 071823 SWOMCD SPC MCD 071822 NEZ000-KSZ000-OKZ000-COZ000-NMZ000-071945- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0780 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0122 PM CDT SUN MAY 07 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN CO/SW NEB/NW KS CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 071822Z - 071945Z ...WEAK WIND FIELDS WILL LIMIT SEVERE POTENTIAL... FEW STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED INVOF OF LEE TROUGH ACROSS FAR ERN CO/NW KS...WHERE STEEP LAPSE RATES HAVE ALLOWED VIGOROUS MIXING TO OCCUR. THE AIRMASS CONTINUES TO DESTABILIZE...BUT LATEST OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS SUGGESTS ONLY WEAKLY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH MLCAPE AROUND 500-1000 J/KG. THE REAL LIMITING FACTOR ATTM IS THE WEAK WINDS ALOFT /PER MCCOOK NEB PROFILER DATA/ WHICH WILL FAVOR MULTICELL STORMS GIVEN 20-25 KT DEEP LAYER SHEAR. STORMS SHOULD BECOME MORE NUMEROUS LATER THIS AFTN WITH A MARGINAL WIND/HAIL THREAT DEVELOPING...AS SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW OVER ERN CO MOVES EAST INTO THE HIGH PLAINS. ..TAYLOR.. 05/07/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LBF...DDC...GLD...AMA...PUB...BOU...ABQ... 38830055 36990148 36980305 38500377 39500356 40170298 40960191 40500037 39490036 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Sun May 7 18:31:15 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Sun, 07 May 2006 14:31:15 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 071830 SWOMCD SPC MCD 071830 TXZ000-072000- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0781 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0130 PM CDT SUN MAY 07 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...SW TX CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 071830Z - 072000Z ISOLATED SEVERE STORM DEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE 19-22Z...AND A WW MAY BE NEEDED IN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS CUMULUS DEVELOPING OVER THE DAVIS MOUNTAINS IN SW TX...AND NEAR SANDERSON. INSOLATION THROUGH BREAKS IN THE CIRRUS HAS ALLOWED SURFACE TEMPERATURES TO WARM TO NEAR 80 F...WHILE DEWPOINTS RANGE FROM 59-66 F. THOUGH LAPSE RATES ARE NOT PARTICULARLY STEEP IN THE MID LEVELS...PROFILES ARE SUPPORTIVE OF MLCAPE VALUES OF 1500-2000 J/KG THIS AFTERNOON. VERTICAL SHEAR IS ALSO FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELL STORMS...WHICH WOULD TEND TO ENHANCE THE THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL. THIS AREA WILL BE MONITORED CLOSELY FOR ADDITIONAL SIGNS OF CONVECTIVE INITIATION...AND A WW MAY BECOME NECESSARY BY 19-20Z. ..THOMPSON.. 05/07/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...EWX...SJT...MAF... 29750263 30830374 31480334 31560250 31290203 30900143 30200075 29670037 29170039 29030061 29600130 29740203 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Sun May 7 19:12:46 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Sun, 07 May 2006 15:12:46 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 071911 SWOMCD SPC MCD 071911 GAZ000-FLZ000-072115- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0782 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0211 PM CDT SUN MAY 07 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...WRN AND CNTRL FL PANHANDLE THROUGH SWRN AND S CNTRL GA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 302... VALID 071911Z - 072115Z STRONGEST STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST ON SRN END OF THE MCS FROM THE WRN AND CNTRL FL PANHANDLE INTO SRN GA NEXT FEW HOURS. LINE OF STORMS EXTENDS FROM S CNTRL GA SWWD THROUGH SWRN GA AND THEN WWD INTO THE WRN AND CNTRL FL PANHANDLE. ACTIVITY IS MOVING EAST AT AROUND 25 KT. A FEW STORMS WITH SOME SUPERCELL CHARACTERISTICS HAVE ALSO DEVELOPED AHEAD OF THE LINE ALONG THE GA/FL BORDER IN THOMAS COUNTY OF EXTREME SRN GA AND JEFFERSON COUNTY IN THE FL PANHANDLE. STORMS ON THE SRN END OF THE MCS ARE IN A FAVORABLE POSITION TO INGEST FEED OF HIGHER THETA-E AIR LOCATED ACROSS THE FL PANHANDLE AND EXTREME SRN GA. VWP DATA SHOWS THE STORMS ARE EMBEDDED WITHIN LARGELY UNIDIRECTIONAL WLY 0-6 KM SHEAR OF 40-50 KT. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE PRIMARY THREATS. STORMS ON TRAILING END OF MCS ARE ORIENTED PARALLEL TO THE DEEP LAYER WIND PROFILES. IN ADDITION TO POSING A THREAT FOR LOCALLY STRONG WIND GUSTS AND HAIL...THESE STORMS WILL ALSO LIKELY PRODUCE RAINFALL RATES IN EXCESS OF 1 INCH PER HOUR AS THEY TRAIN EWD. ..DIAL.. 05/07/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...TAE... 30248346 30018499 30418603 30608599 30728562 30878442 31108324 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Sun May 7 19:56:49 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Sun, 07 May 2006 15:56:49 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 071955 SWOMCD SPC MCD 071955 SCZ000-GAZ000-072200- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0783 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0255 PM CDT SUN MAY 07 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN SC THROUGH SERN GA CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 303... VALID 071955Z - 072200Z SEVERE WEATHER THREAT IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST ANOTHER FEW HOURS. AN ISOLATED TORNADO OR TWO REMAINS POSSIBLE...MAINLY ACROSS ERN SC...BUT PRIMARY THREAT APPEARS TO HAVE TRANSITIONED TO DAMAGING WIND AND LARGE HAIL. THIS AFTERNOON A FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDS ACROSS THE SRN PARTS OF SC WWD INTO N CNTRL GA. SCATTERED STORMS PERSIST ACROSS ERN SC WITHIN MODERATELY UNSTABLE WARM SECTOR NEAR AND S OF THE FRONT. NUMEROUS STORM MERGERS HAVE RESULTED IN STORMS EVOLVING INTO MOSTLY MULTICELL MODES...AND THIS APPEARS TO HAVE MITIGATED THE TORNADO THREAT. MOREOVER...OUTFLOW FROM THE STORMS HAVE STABILIZED THE BOUNDARY LAYER NEAR THE FRONT. HOWEVER...SHEAR PROFILES IN THE 0-6 KM LAYER REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR SOME STORMS TO TAKE ON SUPERCELL STRUCTURES...AND A BRIEF TORNADO OR TWO REMAIN POSSIBLE OVER ERN SC. OTHERWISE...THE PRIMARY THREAT SHOULD BE DAMAGING WIND AND HAIL INTO THE EARLY EVENING. ..DIAL.. 05/07/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...CHS...CAE... 32757923 31818066 31618172 32688189 33437997 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Sun May 7 22:17:55 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Sun, 07 May 2006 18:17:55 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 072216 SWOMCD SPC MCD 072216 NEZ000-KSZ000-COZ000-072345- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0784 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0516 PM CDT SUN MAY 07 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...WRN KS CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 072216Z - 072345Z ...PORTIONS OF KS CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED FOR POSSIBLE WATCH TONIGHT... SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS NOW OVER WRN KS PER LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. THIS FEATURE HAS HELPED TRIGGER SEVERE STORMS OVER KS...AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR VALUES HAVE INCREASED TO AROUND 30-35 KT. THE INSTABILITY AXIS IS FAIRLY NARROW...AS STRATUS DECK ACROSS CNTRL/ERN KS MOST OF THE DAY HAS INHIBITED STRONG INSOLATION. THIS SUGGESTS SEVERE THREAT MAY BE LARGELY DIURNAL. SEVERE THREAT MAY CONTINUE WITH STORM OVER LOGAN CO AND POSSIBLY A FEW COUNTIES EAST FOR THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS. OPERATIONAL MODELS SUGGEST LARGE SCALE FORCING WILL MOVE EWD ACROSS THE CNTRL PLAINS...WITH MCS LIKELY EVOLVING ACROSS PORTIONS OF KS/OK. IT APPEARS THE SEVERE THREAT MAY BE LIMITED WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING...UNLESS ELEVATED SUPERCELLS CAN DEVELOP WITH LARGE HAIL POTENTIAL OR IF STRONG COLD POOL DEVELOPS. AREA WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED FOR POTENTIAL WATCH. ..TAYLOR.. 05/07/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...GID...DDC...GLD...PUB... 37689975 37050022 37040207 38550179 39610151 39980082 40009912 38489954 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Sun May 7 23:08:03 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Sun, 07 May 2006 19:08:03 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 072305 SWOMCD SPC MCD 072305 SCZ000-GAZ000-080000- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0785 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0605 PM CDT SUN MAY 07 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL GA THROUGH NORTHEAST FLORIDA AND COASTAL SOUTH CAROLINA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 072305Z - 080000Z REMAINING VALID PORTION OF TORNADO WATCH 303 MAY BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AS SCHEDULED AT 00Z. SEVERE THREAT MAY INCREASE FOR A BRIEF PERIOD EARLY THIS EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL GEORGIA...BUT A NEW WW IS NOT CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED. IN WAKE OF PRIOR CONVECTION...A NARROW CORRIDOR OF MORE STRONGLY HEATED BOUNDARY LAYER PERSISTS NEAR FRONTAL ZONE ACROSS CENTRAL GEORGIA...ACROSS THE MACON AREA AND GENERALLY SOUTH OF ATLANTA/ AUGUSTA. THIS IS STILL CONTRIBUTING TO MIXED LAYER CAPE AS HIGH AS 1000 J/KG...AND FORCING NEAR 50 TO 60 KT 500 MB JET STREAK ASSOCIATED WITH SOUTHERN STREAM IMPULSE IS SUPPORTING INCREASING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF ATLANTA. EVOLUTION OF A SMALL ORGANIZED MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM APPEARS POSSIBLE AS ACTIVITY APPROACHES THE MACON AREA THROUGH 00-01Z. THIS COULD BE ACCOMPANIED BY SMALL DEVELOPING SURFACE MESO HIGH/COLD POOL AND ASSOCIATED POTENTIAL FOR STRONG GUSTY WINDS...IN ADDITION TO RISK FOR MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL. HOWEVER...EAST SOUTHEAST OF MACON... LIMITED SEVERE POTENTIAL IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH BY 02-03Z AS BOUNDARY LAYER STABILIZES MORE RAPIDLY WITH LOSS OF INSOLATION. ..KERR.. 05/07/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...CHS...CAE...JAX...FFC...TAE... 33298436 33408373 33128042 32568010 31578101 31118153 31138261 32098346 32318380 32768470 33208464 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Mon May 8 00:55:16 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Sun, 07 May 2006 20:55:16 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 080054 SWOMCD SPC MCD 080053 TXZ000-NMZ000-080230- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0786 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0753 PM CDT SUN MAY 07 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...SW TX CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 305... VALID 080053Z - 080230Z ...SEVERE THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS SW TX INTO THE TRANSPECOS REGION FOR VERY LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS AND POSSIBLY A TORNADO OR TWO... SEVERAL SUPERCELL STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS...WITH AT LEAST A COUPLE STORMS WHICH WILL AFFECT MIDLAND AND POINTS FARTHER EAST WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO. MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW CONTINUES TO INCREASE AS SRN STREAM IMPULSE APPROACHES. DEEP LAYER SHEAR EXCEEDS 60 KT ON 00Z MIDLAND SOUNDING...WITH SIGNIFICANT LOW LEVEL VEERING/DIRECTIONAL SHEAR NOTED. IN ADDITION TO THE THREAT OF VERY LARGE HAIL...ISOLD TORNADO POTENTIAL ALSO EXISTS. ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO EVENTUALLY BECOME ROOTED ABOVE THE BOUNDARY LAYER...AS THE LOW LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS TO AROUND 40 KT. LOW LEVEL ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW LEVEL JET CIRCULATION MAY SUPPORT A SEVERE THREAT FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...WITH THE PRIMARY THREAT TRANSITIONING TO LARGE HAIL AS STORMS BECOME ELEVATED. ..TAYLOR.. 05/08/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...EWX...SJT...LUB...MAF... 29550039 29510219 31450277 32920323 33030124 32850045 29609962 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Mon May 8 02:18:41 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Sun, 07 May 2006 22:18:41 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 080215 SWOMCD SPC MCD 080215 OKZ000-KSZ000-TXZ000-080315- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0787 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0915 PM CDT SUN MAY 07 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...SW KS...NW OK...TX PNHDL CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 306... VALID 080215Z - 080315Z CONTINUE WW 306. AS STRONGER MID-LEVEL FORCING AHEAD OF SHORT WAVE TROUGH PROGRESSES EAST OF WESTERN KANSAS HIGH PLAINS LOW-LEVEL THERMAL RIDGE/INSTABILITY AXIS NEXT FEW HOURS...CONVECTIVE LINE OVER KANSAS IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN IN COOLER LOW-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT. GIVEN POSITIVE TILT ORIENTATION OF UPPER TROUGH...THIS FORCING WILL BE SLOWER TO PROGRESS EAST OF THE TEXAS PANHANDLE REGION...WHERE DESTABILIZATION/LIFT NEAR 40 KT LOW-LEVEL JET SPEED MAXIMUM MAY CONTRIBUTE TO EXPANDING CLUSTER OF STORMS THROUGH 06Z. MOST UNSTABLE CAPE UP TO AROUND 1500 J/KG FOR PARCELS REACHING LEVELS OF FREE CONVECTION ABOVE DEEPENING SURFACE INVERSION LAYER WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR CONTINUING RISK OF LARGE HAIL IN FAVORABLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. AND...DESPITE COOLING SURFACE ACROSS THE EASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE...SOURCE REGION FOR DOWNDRAFTS APPEARS POTENTIALLY COOL/DRY ENOUGH TO SUPPORT THREAT FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. ..KERR.. 05/08/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...OUN...DDC...LUB...AMA... 37110151 37460035 37719971 37609901 36539835 36039878 35719937 35039965 34470059 34620188 34830256 35410261 36400178  From mcd at goshenarc.org Mon May 8 04:22:20 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Mon, 08 May 2006 00:22:20 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 080421 SWOMCD SPC MCD 080420 TXZ000-080515- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0788 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1120 PM CDT SUN MAY 07 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...S CNTRL TX CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 305... VALID 080420Z - 080515Z REMAINING VALID PORTION OF WW MAY BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 05Z. A NEW WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED. FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF A BROADLY ANTICYCLONIC HIGH LEVEL JET APPEARS TO HAVE CONTRIBUTED TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF ONGOING LINEAR MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM ACROSS THE EDWARDS PLATEAU. THIS FORCING APPEARS TO BE GRADUALLY SHIFTING TO THE EAST OF HIGH PLAINS LOW-LEVEL THERMAL RIDGE AND SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL JET AXIS. WITH DEMISE OF SUPERCELL ON SOUTHWESTERN FLANK OF SYSTEM...STORMS NOW APPEAR ROOTED ENTIRELY ABOVE DEEPENING SURFACE BASED INVERSION LAYER. WITH WARMER MID-LEVEL AIR MASS BEGINNING TO ADVECT EAST OF THE PLATEAU REGION...COOLER/COOLING LOW-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT SEEMS UNLIKELY TO MAINTAIN INTENSE CONVECTION ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS. ISOLATED LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WIND GUSTS MAY PERSIST ANOTHER HOUR OR TWO WITH ONGOING STORMS...BUT SEVERE THREAT IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH AS ACTIVITY APPROACHES THE INTERSTATE 35 CORRIDOR BY THE 06-07Z TIME FRAME. ..KERR.. 05/08/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...HGX...FWD...EWX...SJT... 31589853 32169774 32249677 31849637 30779651 29889837 29779934 30400021 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Mon May 8 04:53:07 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Mon, 08 May 2006 00:53:07 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 080452 SWOMCD SPC MCD 080451 KSZ000-OKZ000-TXZ000-080545- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0789 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1151 PM CDT SUN MAY 07 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...SW/S CNTRL KS...ERN TX PNHDL...WRN/CNTRL OK CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 306... VALID 080451Z - 080545Z REMAINING VALID PORTION OF WW 306 MAY BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 06Z. STRONGER MID/UPPER FORCING FOR UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT AWAY FROM HIGH PLAINS LOW-LEVEL THERMAL RIDGE OVERNIGHT. AND...AS LOW-LEVEL LEVELS CONTINUE TO COOL EVEN OVER THE HIGH PLAINS...SEVERE THREAT IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH AS THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WEAKENS. ISOLATED MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS MAY CONTINUE TO ACCOMPANY STRONGER STORMS FOR ANOTHER COUPLE OF HOURS...BUT A NEW WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED. ..KERR.. 05/08/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...TSA...ICT...OUN...DDC...LUB...AMA... 35370105 35939992 36439923 37699891 38079849 38019703 36979636 35309728 34469849 34430085 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Mon May 8 15:14:10 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Mon, 08 May 2006 11:14:10 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 081512 SWOMCD SPC MCD 081512 TXZ000-OKZ000-081715- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0790 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1012 AM CDT MON MAY 08 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...SRN OK/NRN TX CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 081512Z - 081715Z A MARGINAL SEVERE THREAT SHOULD EXIST OVER THE NEXT 1 TO 2 HOURS ACROSS SRN OK AND NRN TX. ISOLATED LARGE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE AS STORMS EXPAND IN COVERAGE LATE THIS MORNING. LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A SUBTLE MOIST AXIS FROM NEAR FORTH WORTH TX EXTENDING NWD ACROSS ECNTRL OK INTO SE KS WITH SFC DEWPOINTS ALONG THE AXIS RANGING FROM 55 TO 60 F. THE GREATEST INSTABILITY IS LOCATED ALONG THE WEST EDGE OF THIS MOIST AXIS WHERE ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE DEVELOPING IN SRN OK. THE STORMS ARE FEEDING OFF OF INSTABILITY GENERALLY ABOVE 850 MB AND SHOULD GRADUALLY INCREASE IN COVERAGE AS A SHORTWAVE APPROACHES THE REGION FROM THE WEST. REGIONAL PROFILERS AT 15Z SHOW 0-6 KM SHEAR VALUES AROUND 40 KT. IN ADDITION...OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS SHOWS A POCKET OF STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES LOCATED FROM I-35 EXTENDING EWD TO NEAR THE OK-AR STATE-LINE. THE SHEAR AND STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR A FEW SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING ISOLATED LARGE HAIL. THE THREAT SHOULD PERSIST INTO THE AFTERNOON AS STORMS MOVE EWD ACROSS SE OK AND NE TX. ..BROYLES.. 05/08/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...SHV...TSA...FWD...OUN... 34519823 35079769 35069651 34569566 33979528 33579529 33249559 32859609 32799649 33039759 33879835 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Mon May 8 15:45:06 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Mon, 08 May 2006 11:45:06 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 081544 SWOMCD SPC MCD 081543 FLZ000-GAZ000-ALZ000-081745- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0791 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1043 AM CDT MON MAY 08 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...NRN FL...SRN GA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 081543Z - 081745Z THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT SHOULD CONTINUE ACROSS SRN GA AND NRN FL OVER THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS. AS STORMS INTENSIFY...THE THREAT FOR ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE AND HAIL WILL INCREASE. LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDING EAST TO WEST ACROSS SRN GA WITH SFC DEWPOINTS NEAR 70 F SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY. WARMING SFC TEMPS COMBINED WITH THE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IS RESULTING IN MODERATE INSTABILITY ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE FRONT. EVEN IN THE ABSENCE OF STRONG LARGE-SCALE ASCENT...INCREASING LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG THE BOUNDARY AND CONTINUED SFC HEATING SHOULD RESULT IN AN INCREASE IN THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH LAPSE RATES ARE NOT PARTICULARLY STEEP...FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST SHEAR PROFILES IN SRN GA AND NRN FL ARE ADEQUATE FOR SEVERE STORMS. AS LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND INSTABILITY CONTINUE TO INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON...WIND DAMAGE AND HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER CELLS. ..BROYLES.. 05/08/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...JAX...TAE... 29938246 29858495 30138530 30748533 31228500 31308298 31238149 30228139 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Mon May 8 17:02:47 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Mon, 08 May 2006 13:02:47 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 081701 SWOMCD SPC MCD 081701 FLZ000-ALZ000-MSZ000-LAZ000-TXZ000-081900- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0792 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1201 PM CDT MON MAY 08 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...FAR SE TX...SRN LA...SRN MS...SRN AL AND WRN FL PANHANDLE CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 081701Z - 081900Z THUNDERSTORM INITIATION WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY LIKELY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE IMMEDIATE GULF COAST. ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE AND LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREATS AS STORMS INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND MOVE EWD ACROSS THE REGION. A WW MAY BECOME NECESSARY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDING EWD FROM EAST TX ACROSS SCNTRL LA...SRN MS AND SRN AL. ALTHOUGH LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE IS INCREASING SOMEWHAT ALONG THE BOUNDARY...A CAPPING INVERSION STILL REMAINS IN PLACE EVIDENT ON OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS. THIS INVERSION SHOULD GRADUALLY WEAKEN AS INSTABILITY INCREASES EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. AS A RESULT...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOP ALONG THE BOUNDARY WITH STORMS LIKELY INITIATING BY 19Z AS SUGGESTED BY THE LATEST RUC. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ACROSS THE REGION SHOW MODERATE TO STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES SUGGESTING SUPERCELLS WILL BE LIKELY WITH STORMS THAT REMAIN DISCRETE. ALTHOUGH A MARGINAL/ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER SUPERCELLS...THE MAIN THREAT SHOULD BE LARGE HAIL AND WIND DAMAGE DUE TO THE RELATIVELY WEAK LOW-LEVEL SHEAR IN PLACE. ..BROYLES.. 05/08/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...TAE...MOB...JAN...LIX...LCH...SHV...HGX... 31088558 30298559 29788628 29798868 29859147 29679316 29579417 30019461 30599463 31199379 31459183 31478823 31398630 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Mon May 8 20:42:16 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Mon, 08 May 2006 16:42:16 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 082040 SWOMCD SPC MCD 082040 KSZ000-OKZ000-NEZ000-082245- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0793 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0340 PM CDT MON MAY 08 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...KS...FAR SRN NEB...NW OK CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 082040Z - 082245Z SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY LIKELY LATE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS WRN AND CNTRL KS. A THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL AND WIND DAMAGE WILL ACCOMPANY THE STRONGER STORMS. AN ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT MAY ALSO DEVELOP AS STORMS MATURE BY EARLY EVENING. A WW MAY BECOME NECESSARY WITHIN THE NEXT 1 TO 2 HOURS. SFC ANALYSIS CURRENTLY SHOWS A MOIST AXIS EXTENDING NWD FROM NRN OK ACROSS CNTRL KS WHERE DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S F. THIS IS RESULTING IN MODERATE TO STRONG INSTABILITY ALONG THE MOIST AXIS WHERE MLCAPE VALUES RANGE FROM 2000 TO 3000 J/KG. A CAPPING INVERSION IS CURRENTLY IN PLACE BUT FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THE CAP WILL WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS. AS A RESULT...SFC-BASED CONVECTIVE INITIATION APPEARS INCREASINGLY LIKELY ALONG AN EAST TO WEST BOUNDARY JUST NORTH OF I-70 IN NCNTRL KS EVIDENT ON VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY. REGIONAL PROFILERS SHOW MODERATE VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES IN PLACE WHICH COMBINED WITH STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES SHOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL. AN ISOLATED TORNADO/WIND DAMAGE THREAT MAY ALSO ACCOMPANY THE STRONGER SUPERCELLS ESPECIALLY AS LOW-LEVEL FLOW INCREASES EARLY THIS EVENING. ..BROYLES.. 05/08/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...ICT...OUN...GID...DDC...GLD...AMA... 36970043 37340071 37960097 38830096 39700045 40109984 40199914 39469798 38089785 36859864 36679985 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Mon May 8 20:42:16 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Mon, 08 May 2006 16:42:16 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 082040 SWOMCD SPC MCD 082040 KSZ000-OKZ000-NEZ000-082245- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0793 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0340 PM CDT MON MAY 08 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...KS...FAR SRN NEB...NW OK CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 082040Z - 082245Z SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY LIKELY LATE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS WRN AND CNTRL KS. A THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL AND WIND DAMAGE WILL ACCOMPANY THE STRONGER STORMS. AN ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT MAY ALSO DEVELOP AS STORMS MATURE BY EARLY EVENING. A WW MAY BECOME NECESSARY WITHIN THE NEXT 1 TO 2 HOURS. SFC ANALYSIS CURRENTLY SHOWS A MOIST AXIS EXTENDING NWD FROM NRN OK ACROSS CNTRL KS WHERE DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S F. THIS IS RESULTING IN MODERATE TO STRONG INSTABILITY ALONG THE MOIST AXIS WHERE MLCAPE VALUES RANGE FROM 2000 TO 3000 J/KG. A CAPPING INVERSION IS CURRENTLY IN PLACE BUT FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THE CAP WILL WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS. AS A RESULT...SFC-BASED CONVECTIVE INITIATION APPEARS INCREASINGLY LIKELY ALONG AN EAST TO WEST BOUNDARY JUST NORTH OF I-70 IN NCNTRL KS EVIDENT ON VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY. REGIONAL PROFILERS SHOW MODERATE VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES IN PLACE WHICH COMBINED WITH STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES SHOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL. AN ISOLATED TORNADO/WIND DAMAGE THREAT MAY ALSO ACCOMPANY THE STRONGER SUPERCELLS ESPECIALLY AS LOW-LEVEL FLOW INCREASES EARLY THIS EVENING. ..BROYLES.. 05/08/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...ICT...OUN...GID...DDC...GLD...AMA... 36970043 37340071 37960097 38830096 39700045 40109984 40199914 39469798 38089785 36859864 36679985 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Mon May 8 21:43:52 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Mon, 08 May 2006 17:43:52 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 082142 SWOMCD SPC MCD 082142 MSZ000-LAZ000-ARZ000-082315- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0794 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0442 PM CDT MON MAY 08 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...SRN AR/NRN LA/WRN MS CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 082142Z - 082315Z ...SEVERE POTENTIAL MAY BE INCREASING ACROSS SRN AR/NRN LA AND WATCH MAY BE REQUIRED SHORTLY... LATEST SFC MESOANALYSIS SHOWS OUTFLOW BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM S/SE OF ELD WWD TO TYR. AIRMASS SOUTH OF THIS BOUNDARY HAS WARMED INTO THE 80S...BECOMING MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH MLCAPE AROUND 2000-2500 J/KG. DEEP LAYER AND DIRECTIONAL SHEAR ARE EXTREMELY FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS. RECENT DATA FROM WINNFIELD LA PROFILER SHOWS ELONGATED HODOGRAPH...WITH 0-6KM SHEAR AROUND 60 KT. IN ADDITION...SHORTWAVE/MCV TYPE FEATURE NOW MOVING INTO SW AR WILL LIKELY ENHANCE CONVECTION. AS STORMS NOW ALONG AR/LA BORDER...WHICH HAVE BEEN ELEVATED...BECOME ROOTED IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER...THEN SEVERE POTENTIAL IS HIGH. ..TAYLOR.. 05/08/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...JAN...LIX...LZK...LCH...SHV... 30979127 31289337 32769362 33299360 33519322 33679240 33599127 33158940 32048951 31198973 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Mon May 8 22:12:04 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Mon, 08 May 2006 18:12:04 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 082210 SWOMCD SPC MCD 082210 TXZ000-082315- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0795 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0510 PM CDT MON MAY 08 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF S TX CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 082210Z - 082315Z TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF AN INCREASING SEVERE THREAT. INTENSE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT WHICH INITIATED A COUPLE OF HOURS AGO ALONG THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE MEXICAN PLATEAU CONTINUES TO GRADUALLY DEVELOP TOWARD THE RIO GRANDE RIVER...SOUTH SOUTHEAST OF DEL RIO. THIS HAS BEEN AIDED BY 30 TO 50 KT WESTERLY MID-LEVEL FLOW...WHICH IS PROVIDING FAVORABLE DEEP LAYER SHEAR FOR UPDRAFT ROTATION IN ENVIRONMENT WITH LARGE CAPE. MID/UPPER FORCING FOR CONTINUING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IS UNCERTAIN IN BROADLY ANTICYCLONIC UPPER FLOW REGIME...AND SEEMS TO BE NECESSARY FOR SIGNIFICANT CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL EAST OF THE RIVER...INTO AREAS SOUTHWEST OF SAN ANTONIO BY EARLY EVENING. IF HEATING/UPSLOPE HAS BEEN PRIMARY FORCING FOR ONGOING DEVELOPMENT...TENDENCY MAY BE FOR SUPERCELLS TO PROPAGATE SOUTHWARD THROUGH INSTABILITY AXIS NEAR/JUST WEST OF THE RIVER. CELLS COULD APPROACH OR CROSS RIVER...BUT MAY NOT POSE ANYTHING OTHER THAN VERY LOCALIZED SEVERE THREAT. ..KERR.. 05/08/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...CRP...EWX...BRO... 29510117 29610076 29540012 29399931 29339902 29119871 28629844 27949813 27569812 27259804 26549822 26229851 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Mon May 8 22:40:03 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Mon, 08 May 2006 18:40:03 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 082238 SWOMCD SPC MCD 082238 IAZ000-MOZ000-KSZ000-NEZ000-082345- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0796 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0538 PM CDT MON MAY 08 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...WRN /CNTRL KS...SE NEB...NW MO... CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 307... VALID 082238Z - 082345Z TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED FOR EXPANDING SEVERE THREAT. ADDITIONAL WW PROBABLY WILL BE NEEDED EAST NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH PARTS OF THE MID MISSOURI VALLEY BY 00Z. STRONG CYCLONIC UPPER JET CONTINUES TO NOSE ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST THROUGH THE NORTH CENTRAL ROCKIES/CENTRAL PLAINS. INITIAL IMPULSE APPEARS TO HAVE PROGRESSED THROUGH THE MID MISSOURI VALLEY...BUT EXIT REGION OF STRONGER UPSTREAM SPEED MAXIMUM IS SHIFTING EAST OF THE CENTRAL ROCKIES...AND SUPPORTING ONGOING VIGOROUS CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IN THE VICINITY OF COLD FRONT/DRY LINE INTERSECTION NEAR HILL CITY. AS THIS FORCING CONTINUES TO SPREAD EASTWARD THROUGH EARLY EVENING....PRE-FRONTAL INSTABILITY AXIS EXTENDING THROUGH AREAS SOUTH AND EAST OF OMAHA SHOULD SUPPORT INCREASING/INTENSIFYING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. LOW/MID-LEVEL FLOW IS MODERATE...BUT SHOULD BE SUFFICIENTLY SHEARED FOR EXPANDING STRONG/SEVERE MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM IN ENVIRONMENT WITH MIXED LAYER CAPE OF 1000 TO 2000 J/KG. LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WIND GUSTS APPEAR PRIMARY THREATS...BUT CONDITIONS THROUGH AT LEAST 01-02Z WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR ISOLATED/EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS WITH POTENTIAL FOR TORNADOES. ..KERR.. 05/08/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...DMX...EAX...FSD...OAX...TOP...ICT...GID...DDC...GLD... 39340016 39599948 39829844 40619708 41659607 42379527 41789417 40889402 39489552 38729702 38049797 37969890 38100033 38470101 38990107 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Tue May 9 00:05:59 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Mon, 08 May 2006 20:05:59 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 090004 SWOMCD SPC MCD 090004 NEZ000-090100- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0797 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0704 PM CDT MON MAY 08 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...WRN NEB CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 090004Z - 090100Z SMALL CONVECTIVE CLUSTER APPEARS SIGNIFICANTLY FORCED BY MID-LEVEL CYCLONIC VORTICITY CENTER EMBEDDED WITHIN BELT OF MODERATE TO STRONG CYCLONIC MID/UPPER FLOW. CAPE IS WEAK IN POST FRONTAL ENVIRONMENT ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...BUT STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE ENHANCING DOWNDRAFTS AND POTENTIAL FOR STRONG GUSTY SURFACE WINDS NEAR STORMS AS THEY PROGRESS TOWARD ALLIANCE. WEAK BUT EASTERLY UPSLOPE COMPONENT TO LOW-LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE IS ALSO ENHANCING VERTICAL SHEAR/SYSTEM RELATIVE WIND CONFIGURATION BENEATH 45 TO 50 KT WESTERLY MID-LEVEL FLOW. SHEAR/ THERMODYNAMIC REGIME BECOMES MORE UNFAVORABLE EAST OF THE ALLIANCE AREA...AND STABILIZATION ASSOCIATED WITH ONSET OF SURFACE COOLING SHOULD PROMOTE FURTHER WEAKENING OF STORMS BY 01-02Z. ..KERR.. 05/09/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LBF...CYS... 41890334 42480289 42280223 41810230 41460282 41410333 41510365 41640381 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Tue May 9 00:43:57 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Mon, 08 May 2006 20:43:57 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 090042 SWOMCD SPC MCD 090042 GAZ000-FLZ000-ALZ000-MSZ000-LAZ000-TXZ000-090215- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0798 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0742 PM CDT MON MAY 08 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...NRN LA/MS/SW AL CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 308... VALID 090042Z - 090215Z ...LOCALIZED TORNADO THREAT MAY BE INCREASING WITH SUPERCELLS ENTERING WRN MS. WATCH WILL BE LOCALLY EXTENDED AND NEW WATCH WILL BE ISSUED EWD INTO AL/WRN FL PANHANDLE... NUMEROUS SUPERCELLS HAVE DEVELOPED INVOF OF WARM FRONT THIS EVENING. AIRMASS SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY REMAINS MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH SFC DEWPOINTS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 60S CNTRL MS TO 70S NEAR THE GULF COAST...WHERE MLCAPE VALUES EXCEED 2500 J/KG. LOW LEVEL SHEAR IS NOT TERRIBLY STRONG /ON THE ORDER OF 10-15 KT/ AND THAT MAY LIMIT TORNADO THREAT. HOWEVER...VERY STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND MODERATE INSTABILITY WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT SUPERCELLS. THERE IS A POTENTIAL TORNADO THREAT WITH ANY LONG LIVED SUPERCELL. OTHERWISE...VERY LARGE HAIL/ISOLD DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS. WATCH WILL LIKELY BE LOCALLY EXTENDED DOWNSTREAM. ..TAYLOR.. 05/09/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...FFC...TAE...BMX...MOB...JAN...LIX...LCH...SHV... 30278549 30379370 32989400 32108495 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Tue May 9 00:48:59 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Mon, 08 May 2006 20:48:59 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 090047 SWOMCD SPC MCD 090047 IAZ000-MOZ000-KSZ000-NEZ000-090145- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0799 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0747 PM CDT MON MAY 08 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...N CNTRL/NE KS THRU SE NEB/NW MO AND WRN IA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 090047Z - 090145Z CONTINUE WEATHER WATCHES 307 AND 309. MOST SIGNIFICANT PORTION OF EVOLVING MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM IS PROGRESSING THROUGH INSTABILITY AXIS ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS... WHERE MIXED LAYER CAPE UP TO 2000 J/KG IS SUPPORTING VIGOROUS UPDRAFTS. RELATIVELY STEEP LOW/MID LEVEL LAPSE AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITIES ARE CONTRIBUTING TO FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS...WHICH MAY SPREAD ALONG LEADING EDGE OF OUTFLOWS INTO AREAS WEST/NORTH OF MANHATTAN BEFORE ENCOUNTERING COOLER/MORE UNFAVORABLE BOUNDARY LAYER. MOST SIGNIFICANT NEW CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT THROUGH 02-03Z SEEMS LIKELY TO OCCUR NEAR/EAST OF THE MISSOURI RIVER...ACROSS FAR NORTHWEST MISSOURI INTO WESTERN IOWA. THIS WILL BE SUPPORTED BY FORCING NEAR WEAK SURFACE LOW...AND ENHANCED BY BETTER SHEAR PROFILES NEAR SOUTHWESTERLY LOW-LEVEL JET...WHICH MAY STRENGTHEN SOME THIS EVENING AS A 40 TO 45 KT MID-LEVEL JET CORE PROGRESSES ACROSS NEBRASKA. SOUTH OF BELT OF STRONGER FLOW ALOFT... CONVERGENCE ALONG WEAKENING OUTFLOW MAY BECOME TOO WEAK TO SUPPORT FURTHER STRONG CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT INTO WEST CENTRAL MISSOURI/NORTHEAST KANSAS. BUT...THIS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED. ..KERR.. 05/09/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...DMX...EAX...FSD...OAX...TOP...ICT...GID...DDC... 39819838 40299772 40629730 41209706 41709666 42549610 42799526 42449435 41539370 40749426 40109506 39689565 38989735 38859816 37989950 37560067 38320054 39079935 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Tue May 9 08:38:37 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Tue, 09 May 2006 04:38:37 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 090837 SWOMCD SPC MCD 090837 FLZ000-091030- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0803 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0337 AM CDT TUE MAY 09 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...WCNTRL FL PENINSULA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 090837Z - 091030Z ...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE APPROACHING THE WEST CENTRAL COAST OF THE FL PENINSULA... WELL ORGANIZED MCS CONTINUES ITS SEWD MOVEMENT ACROSS THE NERN GULF OF MEXICO THIS MORNING. THIS ACTIVITY IS PROGRESSING SEWD AT ROUGHLY 35KT WITH LEADING EDGE OF STRONGER UPDRAFTS EXPECTED TO MOVE ONSHORE AROUND 10Z. ALTHOUGH LOW LEVEL FLOW/SHEAR IS SOMEWHAT WEAK...IT APPEARS DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL REMAIN SUPPORTIVE OF MAINTAINING MCS-TYPE STRUCTURE THROUGH SUNRISE AS IT MOVES INLAND. AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS GUSTY WINDS AND PERHAPS SOME HAIL WILL BE NOTED AS THIS CONVECTIONS SPREADS TOWARD THE COAST. ..DARROW.. 05/09/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...TBW...JAX... 29348295 28928219 28088227 28058335 28378362 28828330 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Tue May 9 14:51:16 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Tue, 09 May 2006 10:51:16 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 091448 SWOMCD SPC MCD 091447 ALZ000-FLZ000-MSZ000-LAZ000-091645- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0804 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0947 AM CDT TUE MAY 09 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...SRN MS...SE LA...SRN AL AND FAR WRN FL PANHANDLE CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 091447Z - 091645Z THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS ALONG THE GULF COAST BETWEEN NEW ORLEANS LA AND PENSACOLA FL. AS STORMS INTENSIFY...THE THREAT FOR ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE AND HAIL WILL INCREASE. A WW MAY BECOME NECESSARY WITHIN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A TIGHT MOISTURE GRADIENT EXTENDING ESEWD FROM NRN LA ACROSS SRN MS TO NEAR MOBILE AL. SFC DEWPOINTS SOUTHWEST OF THE GRADIENT ARE IN THE LOWER 70S F AND MODERATE INSTABILITY IS IN PLACE. ALTHOUGH OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS SHOWS A WEAK CAPPING INVERSION IS PRESENT...ELEVATED STORMS ARE DEVELOPING IN SRN MS AND FAR SRN AL ALONG THE MOISTURE GRADIENT. AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER LA EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY MOVES ACROSS THE REGION...INCREASING LARGE-SCALE ASCENT SHOULD RESULT IN A GRADUALLY EXPANSION OF THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW MODERATE TO STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES WHICH WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS ESPECIALLY LATER THIS AFTERNOON WHEN THE STORMS WILL LIKELY BECOME SFC-BASED. THE INSTABILITY...SHEAR AND STEEPENING LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR WIND DAMAGE AND HAIL WITH THE STRONGER CELLS THIS AFTERNOON. ..BROYLES.. 05/09/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MOB...JAN...LIX... 30349008 30739068 31169080 31579067 31949007 31788840 31378682 30848647 30298661 29868737 30018844  From mcd at goshenarc.org Tue May 9 15:03:59 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Tue, 09 May 2006 11:03:59 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 091501 SWOMCD SPC MCD 091500 TNZ000-KYZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-091700- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0805 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1000 AM CDT TUE MAY 09 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...SE MO...NE AR...WRN TN CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 313... VALID 091500Z - 091700Z A CONVECTIVE LINE AND AN ASSOCIATED BOW ECHO WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ESEWD INTO NE AR AND WRN TN OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. A SEVERE THREAT MAY CONTINUE WITH THE LINE WITH WIND DAMAGE AND ISOLATED LARGE HAIL BEING THE MAIN THREATS. A NEW WW WILL BE ISSUED SHORTLY. A WELL-DEVELOPED LINEAR MCS IS CURRENTLY MOVING INTO NE AR AND IS JUST NORTH OF A STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING WNW TO ESE FROM ERN OK ACROSS CNTRL AR INTO NRN MS. NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY...SFC DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S F AND THIS IS RESULTING IN INSTABILITY SUFFICIENT TO FUEL THE CONVECTIVE LINE THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON. THE MCS IS LOCATED IN THE NOSE OF A JET MAX NEAR 700 MB AND THE ENHANCED SHEAR IS SUPPORTING THE SEVERE POTENTIAL WITH THE CONVECTIVE LINE. AS LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES STEEPEN LATE THIS MORNING AND INSTABILITY CONTINUES TO INCREASE...THE LINE MAY REINTENSIFY ACROSS FAR NE AR AND WRN TN. WIND DAMAGE AND ISOLATED LARGE HAIL WOULD BE LIKELY WITH THE STRONGER CELLS EMBEDDED IN THE LINE. ..BROYLES.. 05/09/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...PAH...MEG...LZK...SGF... 35119006 35429126 36029164 36719128 36928992 36448875 35498870  From mcd at goshenarc.org Tue May 9 15:15:38 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Tue, 09 May 2006 11:15:38 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 091448 SWOMCD SPC MCD 091447 ALZ000-FLZ000-MSZ000-LAZ000-091645- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0804 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0947 AM CDT TUE MAY 09 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...SRN MS...SE LA...SRN AL AND FAR WRN FL PANHANDLE CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 091447Z - 091645Z THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS ALONG THE GULF COAST BETWEEN NEW ORLEANS LA AND PENSACOLA FL. AS STORMS INTENSIFY...THE THREAT FOR ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE AND HAIL WILL INCREASE. A WW MAY BECOME NECESSARY WITHIN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A TIGHT MOISTURE GRADIENT EXTENDING ESEWD FROM NRN LA ACROSS SRN MS TO NEAR MOBILE AL. SFC DEWPOINTS SOUTHWEST OF THE GRADIENT ARE IN THE LOWER 70S F AND MODERATE INSTABILITY IS IN PLACE. ALTHOUGH OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS SHOWS A WEAK CAPPING INVERSION IS PRESENT...ELEVATED STORMS ARE DEVELOPING IN SRN MS AND FAR SRN AL ALONG THE MOISTURE GRADIENT. AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER LA EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY MOVES ACROSS THE REGION...INCREASING LARGE-SCALE ASCENT SHOULD RESULT IN A GRADUALLY EXPANSION OF THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW MODERATE TO STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES WHICH WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS ESPECIALLY LATER THIS AFTERNOON WHEN THE STORMS WILL LIKELY BECOME SFC-BASED. THE INSTABILITY...SHEAR AND STEEPENING LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR WIND DAMAGE AND HAIL WITH THE STRONGER CELLS THIS AFTERNOON. ..BROYLES.. 05/09/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MOB...JAN...LIX... 30349008 30739068 31169080 31579067 31949007 31788840 31378682 30848647 30298661 29868737 30018844 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Tue May 9 17:31:53 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Tue, 09 May 2006 13:31:53 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 091729 SWOMCD SPC MCD 091729 TNZ000-ALZ000-KYZ000-MSZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-091900- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0806 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1229 PM CDT TUE MAY 09 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...WRN TN...FAR SW KY...FAR NRN MS...FAR NRN AL CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 315... VALID 091729Z - 091900Z A LINEAR MCS WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE A THREAT FOR ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE AND HAIL OVER THE NEXT 1 TO 2 HOURS. A WW MAY BECOME NECESSARY EAST OF WW 315 ACROSS WRN TO MIDDLE TN. LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A SUBTLE MOIST AXIS EXTENDING NWD FROM ERN MS INTO WRN TN WHERE SFC DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE MID 60S F. SFC HEATING ALONG THE MOIST AXIS IS RESULTING IN SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY TO SUSTAIN THE LINEAR MCS THIS AFTERNOON FOR SEVERAL MORE HOURS. OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS SHOWS A 55 KT MID-LEVEL JET MAX JUST BEHIND THE MCS LIKELY ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH EMBEDDED IN WLY FLOW ALOFT. LIFT AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE COMBINED WITH INCREASING SHEAR AS THE JET PUNCHES EWD SHOULD SUPPORT A SEVERE THREAT WITH THE MCS FOR AT LEAST A FEW MORE HOURS. THE WIND DAMAGE THREAT SHOULD CONTINUE AS THE LINEAR MCS MOVES INTO A SMALL AREA OF LOCALLY STEEPER LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ACROSS WRN TO MIDDLE TN. HAIL WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER CELLS IN THE LINE. ..BROYLES.. 05/09/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LMK...OHX...HUN...PAH...MEG... 35008965 35678999 36238968 36868895 36778755 36578645 36008587 35348590 34738652 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Tue May 9 18:35:44 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Tue, 09 May 2006 14:35:44 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 091833 SWOMCD SPC MCD 091833 ALZ000-MSZ000-ARZ000-092000- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0807 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0133 PM CDT TUE MAY 09 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...NRN MS CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 091833Z - 092000Z STORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP AND INCREASE IN COVERAGE ACROSS NRN MS OVER THE NEXT 1 TO 2 HOURS. THE STRONGER CELLS WILL LIKELY HAVE A POTENTIAL FOR WIND DAMAGE AND HAIL. A WW MAY BECOME NECESSARY BY 19Z. LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING EWD ACROSS CNTRL AR INTO NRN MS AND NW AL WITH SFC DEWPOINTS NEAR 70 F SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY. ACCORDING TO OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS...THE CAPPING INVERSION HAS WEAKENED ACROSS NRN MS AND LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE IS INCREASING ALONG THE BOUNDARY. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN CONVECTIVE INITIATION WITH STORMS INCREASING IN COVERAGE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. ALTHOUGH NRN MS APPEARS TO HAVE WEAKER VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES THAN AREAS FURTHER NORTH...THE SHEAR MAY BE ADEQUATE FOR A FEW SEVERE MULTICELL STORMS WITH HAIL AND ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE. IN ADDITION...A MESOSCALE THERMAL AXIS EXISTS ACROSS NE MS WHERE LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE MAXIMIZED. THIS MAY ENHANCE THE WIND DAMAGE POTENTIAL AS STORMS MOVE INTO NE MS BY LATE AFTERNOON. ..BROYLES.. 05/09/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...BMX...MEG...JAN... 33368934 33459058 34329086 34949003 34898843 34078819 33508844 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Tue May 9 19:58:11 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Tue, 09 May 2006 15:58:11 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 091956 SWOMCD SPC MCD 091955 TNZ000-ALZ000-MSZ000-092200- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0808 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0255 PM CDT TUE MAY 09 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...MIDDLE AND ERN TN...NRN AL...FAR NE MS CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 091955Z - 092200Z A PERSISTENT LINEAR MCS IS CURRENTLY MOVING INTO MIDDLE TN ATTM. A THREAT FOR WIND DAMAGE AND HAIL MAY CONTINUE AS THE LINE MOVES EWD INTO ERN TN AND NRN AL LATE THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...THE THREAT MAY REMAIN MARGINAL ENOUGH TO NOT WARRANT WW ISSUANCE FURTHER EAST. LATEST SFC ANALYSIS CURRENTLY SHOWS A MOIST AXIS JUST AHEAD OF THE MCS WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S F. MODERATE INSTABILITY IS PRESENT ACROSS SRN MIDDLE TN WITH INSTABILITY INCREASING FURTHER SOUTH ACROSS NRN AL. THIS SHOULD FUEL THE MCS WITH THE STRONGEST PART OF THE MCS LIKELY TURNING SEWD INTO THE GREATER INSTABILITY OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THE MCS IS LOCATED IN THE NOSE OF A MID-LEVEL JET BUT THE CONVECTIVE LINE SHOULD BEGIN TO OUTRUN THE STRONGER VERTICAL SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH THE JET OVER SRN MO. THIS MAY RESULT IN A GRADUAL WEAKENING OF THE CONVECTIVE LINE ESPECIALLY AS THE STORMS MOVE EWD INTO ERN TN LATE THIS AFTERNOON. FURTHER SOUTH ACROSS NRN AL...AN AXIS OF STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES EXISTS FROM THE TUPELO MS AREA NEWD TO THE HUNTSVILLE AL VICINITY. AS THE LINE MOVES INTO THIS CORRIDOR...THE POTENTIAL FOR THE LINE TO BE MAINTAINED SHOULD BE THE GREATEST. ..BROYLES.. 05/09/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MRX...OHX...BMX...HUN...MEG... 33818774 34348839 35158807 36488695 36438560 35758530 33668686 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Tue May 9 20:51:31 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Tue, 09 May 2006 16:51:31 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 092046 SWOMCD SPC MCD 092045 TXZ000-OKZ000-092245- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0809 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0345 PM CDT TUE MAY 09 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL AND ERN OK...NE TX CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 092045Z - 092245Z CONVECTIVE INITIATION APPEARS INCREASINGLY POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS ECNTRL OK WITH SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT LIKELY UPON INITIATION. A WW MAY BECOME NECESSARY IN THE NEXT 1 TO 2 HOURS. LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A MOIST AXIS EXTENDING NWD FROM NE TX ACROSS ERN OK WHERE SFC DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S F. STRONG INSTABILITY IS PRESENT ALONG THE MOIST AXIS WHERE THE CAPPING INVERSION HAS WEAKENED EVIDENT ON THE 19Z OUN SOUNDING. THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR INITIATION SHOULD BE NEAR THE STATIONARY FRONT LOCATED EAST OF OKC ALONG AND JUST SOUTH OF THE I-40 CORRIDOR. ALTHOUGH STILL UNCERTAIN...MODEL FORECASTS ARE IN THE BEST AGREEMENT WITH INITIATION OCCURRING IN ECNTRL OK WITH AN MCS CLUSTER ORGANIZING AND MOVING SSEWD TOWARD THE RED RIVER BY THIS EVENING. THE STRONG INSTABILITY AND MODERATE VERTICAL SHEAR SHOWN ON REGIONAL PROFILERS SHOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS. IN ADDITION...OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS SHOWS A PLUME OF STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES EXTENDING NEWD INTO SRN OK AND THIS WILL ENHANCE THE LARGE HAIL POTENTIAL WITH SUPERCELLS THAT DEVELOP. VERY LARGE HAIL WILL BE LIKELY WITH THE STRONGER SUPERCELLS. AS STORMS INCREASE IN COVERAGE THIS EVENING AND THE LOW-LEVEL JET EXPANDS NWD INTO SE OK...THE TORNADO AND WIND DAMAGE POTENTIAL SHOULD INCREASE AS WELL. ..BROYLES.. 05/09/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...SHV...TSA...FWD...OUN... 33069523 33149738 34609803 35649757 35989648 35749495 34559453 33799462  From mcd at goshenarc.org Tue May 9 20:58:50 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Tue, 09 May 2006 16:58:50 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 092057 SWOMCD SPC MCD 092057 ALZ000-MSZ000-092300- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0810 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0357 PM CDT TUE MAY 09 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN MS....CNTRL AND WRN AL CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 092057Z - 092300Z AN ISOLATED THREAT FOR WIND DAMAGE AND HAIL WILL LIKELY CONTINUE ACROSS ERN MS AND WRN AL OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. A NEW WW MAY BECOME NECESSARY LATE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE REGION. LATEST SFC ANALYSIS CURRENTLY SHOWS SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 70S F ACROSS MUCH OF SRN MS AND PARTS OF SW AL. MODERATE INSTABILITY IS PRESENT IN THIS AREA WITH A LARGE COMPLEX OF STORMS ORIENTED ALONG THE INSTABILITY GRADIENT. THE STORMS ARE BEING SUPPORTED BY THE INSTABILITY AND STRONG LARGE-SCALE ASCENT AHEAD OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE WEST AND EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. MODERATE TO STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR SHOWN ON WSR-88D VWPS SUGGESTS THAT SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF HAIL AND WIND DAMAGE WILL CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER CELLS. ..BROYLES.. 05/09/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...BMX...MOB...MEG...JAN... 31488658 31748867 33238915 34238858 34288789 33938716 32908650 32208625 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Tue May 9 21:10:25 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Tue, 09 May 2006 17:10:25 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 092108 SWOMCD SPC MCD 092108 TXZ000-092245- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0811 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0408 PM CDT TUE MAY 09 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...SCNTRL TX CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 092108Z - 092245Z ...SVR TSTMS POSSIBLE THIS AFTN/EVENING PENDING STORM INITIATION. WW WOULD BE NECESSARY IF STORMS DEVELOP... LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOW TOWERING CUMULUS DEVELOPING ON THE EDGE OF THE EDWARDS PLATEAU INVOF JCT/ECU. SHARP DRYLINE EXTENDS EAST OF ABI/SJT WITH BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS EAST OF THE DRYLINE IN THE LOWER 70S. ATMOSPHERE IS EXTREMELY UNSTABLE WITH MLCAPE VALUES IN EXCESS OF 4000 J/KG. DEEP LAYER SHEAR ON THE ORDER OF 50 KT AND VERY STEEP LOW/MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL SUPPORT SUPERCELLS WITH POTENTIALLY VERY LARGE HAIL OR AN ISOLD TORNADO IF STORMS FORM. ..TAYLOR.. 05/09/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...FWD...EWX...SJT... 29829809 29219986 29620060 30140037 31059969 31429896 31379802 30909759 30379770 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Tue May 9 21:10:25 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Tue, 09 May 2006 17:10:25 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 092108 SWOMCD SPC MCD 092108 TXZ000-092245- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0811 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0408 PM CDT TUE MAY 09 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...SCNTRL TX CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 092108Z - 092245Z ...SVR TSTMS POSSIBLE THIS AFTN/EVENING PENDING STORM INITIATION. WW WOULD BE NECESSARY IF STORMS DEVELOP... LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOW TOWERING CUMULUS DEVELOPING ON THE EDGE OF THE EDWARDS PLATEAU INVOF JCT/ECU. SHARP DRYLINE EXTENDS EAST OF ABI/SJT WITH BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS EAST OF THE DRYLINE IN THE LOWER 70S. ATMOSPHERE IS EXTREMELY UNSTABLE WITH MLCAPE VALUES IN EXCESS OF 4000 J/KG. DEEP LAYER SHEAR ON THE ORDER OF 50 KT AND VERY STEEP LOW/MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL SUPPORT SUPERCELLS WITH POTENTIALLY VERY LARGE HAIL OR AN ISOLD TORNADO IF STORMS FORM. ..TAYLOR.. 05/09/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...FWD...EWX...SJT... 29829809 29219986 29620060 30140037 31059969 31429896 31379802 30909759 30379770 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Tue May 9 21:48:33 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Tue, 09 May 2006 17:48:33 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 092147 SWOMCD SPC MCD 092146 MOZ000-ARZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-092315- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0812 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0446 PM CDT TUE MAY 09 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...SE KS/SW MO/NE OK CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 092146Z - 092315Z ...SEVERE POTENTIAL IS INCREASING ACROSS SRN MO INTO NE OK AND WATCH MAY BECOME NECESSARY SHORTLY... RESIDUAL COLD FRONT/OUTFLOW BOUNDARY NOW EXTENDS FROM DOUGLAS CO MISSOURI SWWD INTO NE OK. BOUNDARY CONTINUES SWWD JUST SE OF THE OKC AREA WHERE IT INTERSECTS ANOTHER OUTFLOW BOUNDARY BETWEEN NORMAN/SHAWNEE PER RADAR DATA FROM NORMAN. STORMS HAVE ALREADY DEVELOPED ALONG THIS BOUNDARY IN SRN MO...AND CONVECTIVE INHIBITION APPEARS TO BE WEAKENING FARTHER SOUTHWEST JUDGING BY SWELLING CUMULUS INTO OKLAHOMA. AIRMASS ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY IS EXTREMELY UNSTABLE...AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR SHOWN ON PROFILER DATA IS IN THE 40-50 KT RANGE. BACKED FLOW ACROSS MUSKOGEE/SEQUOYAH COUNTIES EWD SUGGESTS THERE MAY BE A DEVELOPING TORNADO THREAT IF DISCRETE STORMS CAN FORM INVOF OF THESE BOUNDARIES. ..TAYLOR.. 05/09/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...PAH...LSX...LZK...SGF...TSA...ICT... 36899097 35979362 35709628 36279649 37119608 37549465 37619273 37579145 37519093 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Tue May 9 23:32:29 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Tue, 09 May 2006 19:32:29 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 092331 SWOMCD SPC MCD 092330 ARZ000-MOZ000-OKZ000-TXZ000-100100- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0814 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0630 PM CDT TUE MAY 09 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN OK...NW AR...SRN MO CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 318...320... VALID 092330Z - 100100Z CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IS UNDERWAY NEAR/EAST OF RED RIVER VALLEY SURFACE LOW...AND ALONG LINGERING SURFACE BOUNDARY NORTHEAST OF LOW CENTER THROUGH THE OZARK PLATEAU. EXTREME POTENTIAL INSTABILITY WITH MIXED LAYER CAPE OF 3000 TO 4000 J/KG WILL SUPPORT INTENSE UPDRAFTS IN FAVORABLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT FOR SUPERCELLS. LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPHS APPEAR SUFFICIENT FOR RISK OF TORNADOES IN STRONGER STORMS...IN ADDITION TO VERY LARGE HAIL...WITH BEST PROFILES LIKELY DEVELOPING ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN OKLAHOMA ON NOSE OF STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL JET DURING THE 00-02Z TIME FRAME. EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF STORMS LIKELY WILL BE LIMITED TO NARROW INSTABILITY AXIS FROM WEST OF FORT SMITH AR THROUGH THE WEST PLAINS MO AREA...WHILE STRONGER/MORE FOCUSED LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE BEGINS TO SUPPORT EVOLUTION OF PRIMARY MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM ACROSS SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA. ..KERR.. 05/09/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...PAH...MEG...LZK...SGF...SHV...TSA...FWD...OUN... 35139699 35709591 36299478 36669368 36969235 36979112 36699055 36399089 36119198 35819308 35399388 35109442 34229453 33749513 33599579 33739683 34699715 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Tue May 9 23:35:06 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Tue, 09 May 2006 19:35:06 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 092333 SWOMCD SPC MCD 092333 ALZ000-MSZ000-100030- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0815 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0633 PM CDT TUE MAY 09 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL MS INTO SRN AL CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 317...319... VALID 092333Z - 100030Z ...LINGERING SEVERE THREAT EXISTS ACROSS PORTIONS OF CNTRL MS WITH TORNADO THREAT WITH ANY DISCRETE CELLS... WATCH 317 IS SCHEDULED TO EXPIRE AT 00Z...BUT CYCLIC SUPERCELL NOW OVER SMITH COUNTY WILL STILL POSE A THREAT BEYOND THAT TIME. PORTIONS OF THE WATCH MAY NEED TO BE LOCALLY EXTENDED TO ACCOUNT FOR THE ONGOING RISK. OTHER STORMS FROM WINSTON CO SWD TO CLARKE CO WILL BE MOVING INTO AL...AND WATCH 319. IMPULSE ACROSS SE MS IS NOTED IN WV LOOPS AND THIS IS ENHANCING LARGE SCALE ASCENT ACROSS MS/AL...AND IMPROVING DEEP LAYER SHEAR. RECENT RADAR DATA FROM MOBILE AL SUGGEST HISTORY OF MESOCYCLONE SIGNATURES WITH DISCRETE CELLS NOW ABOUT 40 ESE OF JACKSON MS AND STORMS NOW OVER CHOCTAW AND CLARKE COUNTIES IN SRN AL. VAD WIND DATA FROM MOBILE INDICATES ABOUT 25 KT LOW LEVEL SHEAR...WITH WIND LAYER PROFILES FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS WITH A TORNADO THREAT. OTHER THREATS INCLUDE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. ..TAYLOR.. 05/09/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...TAE...BMX...MOB...JAN... 31138658 30978860 31729019 32669014 32898976 33008879 32838656 32598588 31888520 31298548 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Wed May 10 01:08:17 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Tue, 09 May 2006 21:08:17 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 100106 SWOMCD SPC MCD 100106 OKZ000-TXZ000-100230- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0816 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0806 PM CDT TUE MAY 09 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF NW TX/TX PNHDL INTO SW OK CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 321... VALID 100106Z - 100230Z MID/UPPER FORCING CONTINUES TO DEVELOP SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE SOUTH CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...AND HAS SUPPORTED INCREASING/ INTENSIFYING...MOSTLY HIGH-BASED...CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE NORTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE. ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY HAS FORMED ALONG ZONE OF STRONGER LOWER/MID TROPOSPHERIC WARM ADVECTION THROUGH THE EASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE INTO PARTS OF NORTHWEST TEXAS. CONSOLIDATION OF CONVECTION INTO MORE ORGANIZED MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM STILL APPEARS POSSIBLE THIS EVENING...MOST LIKELY NEAR 850-700 MB BAROCLINIC ZONE ACROSS SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA BY 03Z. THIS WILL BE SUPPORTED BY INGESTION OF INCREASINGLY MOIST POST FRONTAL BOUNDARY LAYER NEAR/NORTH OF THE RED RIVER. BENEATH STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATE ENVIRONMENT...MOST UNSTABLE CAPE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN AROUND OR ABOVE 2000 J/KG...WHICH WILL CONTRIBUTE TO VIGOROUS UPDRAFTS WITH LARGE HAIL AND HEAVY RAIN. EVAPORATIVE COOLING IN DOWNDRAFTS IS EXPECTED TO BE SUFFICIENT FOR EVOLVING COLD POOL WITH DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL. ..KERR.. 05/10/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...OUN...LUB...AMA... 35670080 36060029 36119923 35799819 35249769 34379805 34109894 34250000 34450075 34760102 35180106 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Wed May 10 02:39:59 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Tue, 09 May 2006 22:39:59 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 100238 SWOMCD SPC MCD 100238 ARZ000-TXZ000-OKZ000-100415- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0817 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0938 PM CDT TUE MAY 09 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...SRN OK...PARTS OF NRN TX INTO THE ARKLATEX? CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 318... VALID 100238Z - 100415Z ADDITIONAL WW PROBABLY WILL BE NEEDED SHORTLY ACROSS SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA. MID-LEVEL THERMAL RIDGE SUPPRESSING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA SEEMS LIKELY TO BREAK DOWN DURING THE 03-06Z TIME. THIS WILL OCCUR AS STRONGER MID/UPPER FORCING CONTINUES TO SHIFT EAST SOUTHEASTWARD OUT OF THE SOUTH CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...AHEAD OF VIGOROUS IMPULSE ROTATING AROUND SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF NORTH PLAINS CLOSED LOW. ENVIRONMENT ALONG LOW-LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE NEAR/NORTH OF THE RED RIVER IS POTENTIALLY VERY UNSTABLE WITH MOST UNSTABLE CAPE ON THE ORDER OF 2000-4000 J/KG... AND WILL FAVOR RAPID NEW CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT AS INHIBITION WEAKENS. LARGE HAIL IS LIKELY...AND DRY POTENTIALLY COLD MID-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT EVIDENT IN 00Z NORMAN SOUNDING MAY CONTRIBUTE TO SUFFICIENT NEGATIVE BUOYANCY IN DOWNDRAFTS FOR DAMAGING SURFACE WIND POTENTIAL...DESPITE DEVELOPING SURFACE INVERSION. TORNADO POTENTIAL APPEARS TO BE DECREASING WITH ACTIVITY NORTHEAST OF SURFACE LOW...ON NOSE OF LOW-LEVEL JET...ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN OKLAHOMA. LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL WILL CONTINUE THOUGH ...WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN ALSO BECOMING AN INCREASING THREAT. WITH MAIN UPPER SUPPORT STILL UPSTREAM...CONVECTION MAY BE SLOW TO DEVELOP SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE ARKLATEX. ..KERR.. 05/10/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LZK...SHV...TSA...FWD...OUN... 35179952 35479838 35479696 35339630 34839488 33879416 33519456 33399543 33409634 33519787 33609893 33889961 34469994 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Wed May 10 02:56:28 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Tue, 09 May 2006 22:56:28 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 100255 SWOMCD SPC MCD 100254 FLZ000-GAZ000-ALZ000-MSZ000-100500- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0818 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0954 PM CDT TUE MAY 09 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...SRN AL/SWRN GA/PANHANDLE FL CONCERNING...CONVECTIVE TRENDS VALID 100254Z - 100500Z CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO SPREAD EWD AS UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE OVER ECNTRL MS CONTINUES ITS RAPID EWD MOVEMENT. MUCAPES IN THE REGION RANGE FROM ABOUT 1500 J/KG OVER SRN AL AND DECREASE TO ABOUT 1000 J/KG IN SWRN GA. ALTHOUGH THE STORMS ARE MAINLY ELEVATED ALONG AND NORTH OF SURFACE BOUNDARY WHICH EXTENDS FROM JUST SOUTH OF BGE TO CEW TO JUST NORTH OF PIB...EFFECTIVE SHEAR NEAR THE GULF COAST REMAINS AOA 40 J/KG. WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING/DIMINISHING INSTABILITY STORMS HAVE BEEN DECREASING IN INTENSITY THROUGH THE EVENING. THE LARGE SCALE ENVIRONMENT BECOMES LESS FAVORABLE WITH TIME AS THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE MOVES EWD...SO STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO WEAKEN FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE EVENING. DUE TO THE ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT ANOTHER WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME. ..BRIGHT.. 05/10/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...TAE...BMX...MOB...LIX... 31938782 32228712 32168639 31858506 31408395 30878348 29958334 30188424 30178569 30448643 30368825 30648918 31408866 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Wed May 10 07:07:11 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Wed, 10 May 2006 03:07:11 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 100705 SWOMCD SPC MCD 100705 TNZ000-ALZ000-MSZ000-100800- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0819 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0205 AM CDT WED MAY 10 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...NERN MS...NWRN AL...MIDDLE TN CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 100705Z - 100800Z ...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE NRN GULF STATES AND MIDDLE TN... LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION IS INCREASING ACROSS THE NRN GULF STATES INTO THE TN VALLEY. EXPANDING THUNDERSTORM CLUSTERS OVER NWRN MS SHOULD CONTINUE TO DEVELOP NEWD AND MOVE EAST OF THE CURRENT WATCH WITHIN THE HOUR. SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED SOON FOR ADJACENT AREAS DOWNSTREAM. ..DARROW.. 05/10/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...OHX...BMX...HUN...MEG...JAN... 33158977 36468835 36208669 33258766 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Wed May 10 09:02:46 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Wed, 10 May 2006 05:02:46 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 100901 SWOMCD SPC MCD 100901 ARZ000-TXZ000-OKZ000-101030- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0820 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0401 AM CDT WED MAY 10 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...SRN OK...EXTREME NERN TX AND CNTRL/WRN AR CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 100901Z - 101030Z WEATHER WATCHES MAY NEED TO BE REALIGNED ACROSS THE REGION BY 10Z OR SO. A SECONDARY MID-LEVEL IMPULSE WAS MOVING INTO WRN OK THIS MORNING AND APPEARS TO BE LARGELY RESPONSIBLE FOR THE TSTM CLUSTER MOVING INTO CNTRL/SWRN OK AND WRN N TX. MESOANALYSIS PLACES A COLD FRONT ARCING FROM NWRN AR ACROSS SERN OK...THEN WWD ALONG THE RED RIVER INTO THE VERNON TX AREA. TSTMS HAVE RECENTLY INTENSIFIED ALONG THIS FRONT FROM NEAR FORT SMITH TO PARIS TX...AS THE UPSTREAM WAVE APPROACHES THE REGION. SWLY LOW-LEVEL JET HAS MAINTAINED A FLOW OF UNSTABLE PARCELS FROM N TX INTO OK AND AR THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES ALOFT WILL MAINTAIN A LARGE HAIL THREAT. MOREOVER...A 50-60 KT MID-LEVEL JET ASSOCD WITH THE IMPULSE WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE SUFFICIENT VERTICAL SHEAR FOR SUPERCELL STRUCTURES EMBEDDED WITHIN LINEAR SEGMENTS. THE LINES WILL TEND TO BOW AND PRODUCE DAMAGING WINDS. THE GREATEST SEVERE RISK APPEARS TO BE ACROSS EXTREME NERN TX INTO PARTS OF WRN AR...BUT THE SRN-MOST CELLS ACROSS WRN N TX/SWRN OK MAY REMAIN POTENTIALLY SEVERE AS THEY MOVE INTO SWRN/SCNTRL OK. ..RACY.. 05/10/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LZK...SHV...TSA...FWD...OUN... 34739973 35449879 35539579 35679323 34439260 33419330 32989532 33189686 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Wed May 10 10:20:02 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Wed, 10 May 2006 06:20:02 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 101018 SWOMCD SPC MCD 101018 OKZ000-TXZ000-101145- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0822 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0518 AM CDT WED MAY 10 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...EXTREME SRN OK AND EXTREME NRN PARTS OF NCNTRL TX CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 101018Z - 101145Z A PERSISTENT TSTM LINE SEGMENT HAS BEEN PRODUCING 70+ MPH WIND GUSTS ACROSS SRN TILLMAN COUNTY OK. THIS CELL IS MOVING 275/53 AND WILL BE MOVING INTO AREAS NEAR/S OF KADM BY 1115-1130Z AND LAKE TEXHOMA BY 1230Z...ALSO POSSIBLY AFFECTING THE NRN TIER OF TX COUNTIES ALONG THE RED RIVER. SFC ANALYSIS PLACES AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ARCING FROM MCCURTAIN COUNTY OK SWWD THROUGH THE NRN PARTS OF THE DFW METROPLEX. THE COLD DOME IS SUFFICIENTLY SHALLOW TO ALLOW STRONG DOWNDRAFTS TO MAKE IT TO THE SFC. BUT...THE COLDER AIR IS LIKELY DEEPER ACROSS AREAS EAST OF I-35 INTO SERN OK WHERE SIGNIFICANT TSTMS FORMED DURING TUE EVENING. AS SUCH...THE DAMAGING WIND THREAT MAY BE REDUCED BY THE TIME THE CELL REACHES THE ATOKA AREA LATER THIS MORNING. THE LARGE HAIL THREAT WILL LIKELY CONTINUE...HOWEVER ...GIVEN STEEP H5-H7 LAPSE RATES. THE LINE SEGMENT WILL PROBABLY NOT DEVELOP FARTHER S INTO NCNTRL TX OWING TO STRONGER CAP. ..RACY.. 05/10/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...TSA...FWD...OUN... 34509863 34549523 34119536 33669598 33619700 34059845 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Wed May 10 10:49:37 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Wed, 10 May 2006 06:49:37 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 101048 SWOMCD SPC MCD 101047 ALZ000-MSZ000-101215- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0823 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0547 AM CDT WED MAY 10 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...SMALL PART OF ECNTRL/SERN MS AND CNTRL/SRN AL CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 101047Z - 101215Z LINEAR MCS CONTINUES TO MOVE EWD INTO/THROUGH NWRN/WCNTRL AL AND ECNTRL MS. NRN EDGE OF THE MCS WAS WEAKENING AS IT MOVES BEYOND THE PRIMARY FEED OF INSTABILITY. BUT...SRN EDGE OF THE COMPLEX CONTINUES TO MAINTAIN/INCREASE INTENSITY. LATEST PROFILER/VWP PLOT SUGGESTS THAT THE AXIS OF 30-35 KT SWLY H85 JET WAS SITUATED FROM NRN LA INTO NRN MS. PARCELS FEEDING THE TSTMS WERE ORIGINATING IN A PLUME OF VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES AND SHOULD CONTINUE TO FAVOR AN ORGANIZED MCS FOR A FEW MORE HOURS. AIR MASS DOWNSTREAM ACROSS THE SWRN HALF OF AL WAS RECOVERING WITH THE BOUNDARY LAYER DEW POINTS INCREASING. IF THE MOST UNSTABLE PORTION OF THE WARM SECTOR CAN BECOME SITUATED MORE NW-SE AHEAD OF THE COMPLEX OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS...A DAMAGING WIND BOW ECHO TYPE OF SITUATION MAY CONTINUE ACROSS CNTRL/SRN PARTS OF AL. AS SUCH...A NEW WW MAY BE NEEDED ACROSS THESE AREAS. ..RACY.. 05/10/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...TAE...BMX...HUN...MOB...JAN... 34178766 33588603 32618532 32038517 31348520 31168591 31428706 31868829 32198870 32818893 33448831 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Wed May 10 11:29:16 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Wed, 10 May 2006 07:29:16 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 101128 SWOMCD SPC MCD 101127 TNZ000-MSZ000-ARZ000-TXZ000-OKZ000-101300- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0824 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0627 AM CDT WED MAY 10 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...EXTREME SERN OK...EXTREME NERN OK...SRN/CNTRL AR...NWRN MS...FAR WRN TN CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 101127Z - 101300Z MIDDLE OF THREE LINEAR MCS/S CONTINUES TO MOVE ACROSS AR THIS MORNING. INDIVIDUAL STORMS WITHIN THE LINE HAVE BEEN EXHIBITING VARIOUS STORM MODES...AND MAY BE STRUGGLING SOMEWHAT GIVEN THE SHORT WAVE LENGTH BETWEEN THE LINE AND THE LEAD MCS ACROSS AL/MS. UPSTREAM...A PERSISTENT LINE OF TSTMS CONTINUES MOVING RAPIDLY EWD JUST N OF THE RED RIVER IN SCNTRL OK...TIED TO A MIDLEVEL IMPULSE MOVING ACROSS WRN OK. MESOANALYSIS PLACES AN OUTFLOW ARCING FROM SRN MS ACROSS NRN LA...THEN SWWD INTO NCNTRL TX. DESPITE THE COOLER BOUNDARY LAYER IN PLACE DOWNSTREAM INTO THE MID-SOUTH...THE FEED OF UNSTABLE PARCELS ABOVE THIS SHALLOW STABLE LAYER WILL MAINTAIN THE TSTMS. STRONGER STORMS WILL FAVOR THE SRN END OF THE MCS AS IT MOVES ACROSS SERN AR INTO NWRN MS THROUGH 13-15Z. THE STORMS MAY INCREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE AND INTENSITY ONCE THE UPSTREAM MID-LEVEL IMPULSE OVER OK MOVES INTO THE ARKLATEX REGION. LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREAT FOR A WHILE LONGER...BUT DAMAGING WIND AND TORNADO PROBABILITIES WILL INCREASE AS THE MORNING WEARS ON. ..RACY.. 05/10/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MEG...JAN...LZK...SHV... 33699523 35799156 35778987 34608951 33229034 33059086 33159407 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Wed May 10 13:33:09 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Wed, 10 May 2006 09:33:09 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 101331 SWOMCD SPC MCD 101331 ALZ000-MSZ000-101500- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0825 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0831 AM CDT WED MAY 10 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...NRN MS...WRN AL CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 101331Z - 101500Z A LINEAR MCS NEAR THE MS RIVER WILL CONTINUE ESEWD ACROSS NRN MS AND WRN AL. A THREAT FOR WIND DAMAGE AND HAIL MAY CONTINUE WITH THE MCS OVER THE NEXT 1 TO 3 HOURS. LATEST SFC ANALYSIS CURRENTLY SHOWS A SFC LOW OVER NWRN MS WITH SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S F ACROSS MOST OF CNTRL AND NRN MS. SFC TEMPS ARE WARMER SOUTH OF THE MCS ACROSS CNTRL MS WHERE MODERATE INSTABILITY EXISTS. THE MCS IS TRACKING ALONG THE INSTABILITY GRADIENT AND AS DESTABILIZATION CONTINUES THIS MORNING...THE INSTABILITY SHOULD SUSTAIN THE MCS. WSR-88D VAD WIND PROFILERS SHOW 0-6 KM SHEAR VALUES IN THE 40 TO 50 KT RANGE SUGGESTING ORGANIZED SEVERE CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE THIS MORNING. BECAUSE THE MCS HAS ORGANIZED INTO A SHORT-LINE...THE THREAT FOR WIND DAMAGE WITH BOWING SEGMENTS MAY BE THE GREATEST THREAT. HAIL WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER CELLS IN THE LINE. ..BROYLES.. 05/10/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...BMX...MEG...JAN... 32708840 33139050 33569083 34279052 34508975 34068777 33398735 32838758 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Wed May 10 15:59:07 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Wed, 10 May 2006 11:59:07 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 101557 SWOMCD SPC MCD 101557 MSZ000-ARZ000-LAZ000-101800- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0826 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1057 AM CDT WED MAY 10 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...NCNTRL AND NE LA...WRN AND CNTRL MS...FAR SE AR CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 101557Z - 101800Z THE TORNADO THREAT WILL INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS NCNTRL/NERN LA...WRN/CNTRL MS AND FAR SE AR. A NEW WW WILL LIKELY BECOME NECESSARY AROUND 17Z ACROSS THE REGION. LATEST SFC ANALYSIS CURRENTLY SHOWS A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDING ESEWD ACROSS NRN LA INTO CNTRL MS. SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY...DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE LOWER 70S F AND AN AXIS OF STRONG INSTABILITY IS PRESENT EXTENDING SWWD FROM THE BOUNDARY ACROSS LA INTO SERN TX. A LINEAR MCS JUST NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY ACROSS SERN AR WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ESEWD ALONG THE NORTH EDGE OF THE STRONGER INSTABILITY. REGIONAL WSR-88D VAD WIND PROFILES SHOW STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES WHICH SHOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS AND BOW ECHOES AS THE MCS TRACKS ESEWD ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. THE THREAT FOR SUPERCELLS WITH TORNADO POTENTIAL SHOULD BE GREATEST ALONG THE SOUTH END OF THE MCS WHERE STORMS WILL HAVE AXIS TO STRONGER INSTABILITY. WIND DAMAGE AND HAIL WILL ALSO BE LIKELY WITH THE STRONGER CELLS EMBEDDED IN THE LINE. FURTHER SOUTHWEST...SFC ANALYSIS CURRENTLY SHOWS A MESOSCALE THERMAL AXIS LOCATED FROM CNTRL LA EXTENDING NEWD INTO THE NE LA. ALTHOUGH THE TIMING OF INITIATION REMAINS UNCERTAIN...CELLS COULD INITIATE ALONG THIS THERMAL AXIS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THE LOW-LEVEL SHEAR ENVIRONMENT SHOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS AND TORNADOES WITH DISCRETE CELLS THAT DEVELOP AND MOVE EWD ACROSS NCNTRL/NE LA AND WRN/CNTRL MS LATER THIS AFTERNOON. THE GREATER TORNADO THREAT SHOULD EXIST NEAR THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY IN WRN AND CNTRL MS LATER THIS AFTERNOON. ..BROYLES.. 05/10/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...JAN...LZK...SHV... 31439096 31729228 32109295 32949302 33579228 33589113 33509034 33278943 32618888 31618930 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Wed May 10 17:23:21 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Wed, 10 May 2006 13:23:21 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 101722 SWOMCD SPC MCD 101721 GAZ000-ALZ000-101845- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0827 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1221 PM CDT WED MAY 10 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...NRN AL...WRN GA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 101721Z - 101845Z A THREAT FOR WIND DAMAGE AND HAIL MAY CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS WITH A LINEAR MCS CROSSING NRN AL ATTM. WW MAY BECOME NECESSARY ACROSS THE REGION SHORTLY. AN MCS IS ONGOING WELL NORTH OF A STATIONARY FRONT LOCATED IN SCNTRL AL. NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY...SFC DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S F WITH ENOUGH INSTABILITY IN PLACE TO MAINTAIN THE LINE FOR A FEW MORE HOURS. THE MCS APPEARS CLOSELY RELATED TO A 55 KT MID-LEVEL JET MAX LOCATED JUST BEHIND THE LINE ACCORDING TO RUC ANALYSIS. ALTHOUGH THE LINE APPEARS SLIGHTLY ELEVATED IN NATURE...THE FORWARD SPEED OF THE MCS SHOULD RESULT IN STRONG WIND GUSTS ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF THE LINE. THE WIND DAMAGE POTENTIAL COULD BE ENHANCED JUST AHEAD OF BOWING SEGMENTS WITH HAIL ALSO POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER CELLS IN THE LINE. ..BROYLES.. 05/10/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...FFC...BMX...HUN... 34468636 34268506 33638455 32848449 32298534 32508683 33188758 33988723 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Wed May 10 17:43:41 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Wed, 10 May 2006 13:43:41 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 101742 SWOMCD SPC MCD 101742 ALZ000-101915- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0828 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1242 PM CDT WED MAY 10 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...SRN AL CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 329... VALID 101742Z - 101915Z WW 329 WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 18Z. HOWEVER A NEW WW MAY BE NEEDED AROUND 19Z AS CONVECTION OVER MS BEGINS TO DEVELOP SEWD INTO THE REGION. EARLIER CONVECTION HAS DIMINISHED AND MOVED EWD INTO SWRN GA. AREA REMAINS UNDER BROAD WAA PROFILE AND STRONG LOW-MID LEVEL SHEAR. COPIOUS CLOUD COVER WILL LIKELY INHIBIT CONVECTION FROM DEVELOPING IN THE WAA PROFILE FOR THE NEXT FEW HRS. HOWEVER...CONVECTION DEVELOPING FURTHER WEST OVER CENTRAL MS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY AND SHOULD BEGIN TO MOVE INTO SWRN AL AFTER 19Z. WITH CONTINUED DESTABILIZATION EXPECTED OVER SRN AL...SVR THREAT WILL LIKELY REDEVELOP AFTER THIS TIME. GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE LOW LEVEL SHEAR...ANY NEW WW WILL LIKELY BE TORNADO. ..CROSBIE.. 05/10/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...TAE...BMX...MOB... 32178641 32568813 32268824 31538828 31338788 31098675 31078539 31238517 31868523 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Wed May 10 17:52:02 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Wed, 10 May 2006 13:52:02 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 101750 SWOMCD SPC MCD 101750 LAZ000-TXZ000-101945- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0829 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1250 PM CDT WED MAY 10 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...NE TX...NW LA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 101750Z - 101945Z STORMS WILL INITIATE ACROSS NE TX AND NW LA WITHIN THE NEXT 1 TO 2 HOURS. A WW WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED ACROSS THE REGION BY 1830Z. LATEST SFC ANALYSIS CURRENTLY SHOWS A COLD FRONT ADVANCING SEWD ACROSS NE TX AND JUST ENTERING FAR NW LA. SOUTHEAST OF THE BOUNDARY...SFC DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE LOWER 70S F AND STRONG INSTABILITY IS IN PLACE. A CAPPING INVERSION EXISTS ACROSS MUCH OF EAST TX AND WRN LA HOWEVER...THE CAP HAS WEAKENED OVER THE LAST HOUR ACCORDING TO OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS AND THE SHV 17Z SOUNDING. AS CONVERGENCE INCREASES ALONG THE BOUNDARY...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD INITIATE ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT. FORECAST SOUNDINGS THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS EAST TX AND WRN LA SHOW STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES WITH STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AROUND 8.0 C/KM. THIS ALONG WITH THE STRONG INSTABILITY SHOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL. AN ISOLATED TORNADO AND WIND DAMAGE THREAT WILL ALSO INCREASE IN THE LATE AFTERNOON AS THE SUPERCELLS MATURE AND INCREASE IN INTENSITY. ..BROYLES.. 05/10/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LCH...SHV...HGX... 31099336 30709469 31079522 31799520 32449421 32799313 32479234 32029214 31539250 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Wed May 10 18:41:51 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Wed, 10 May 2006 14:41:51 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 101839 SWOMCD SPC MCD 101838 MIZ000-OHZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-102045- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0830 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0138 PM CDT WED MAY 10 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...SRN LOWER MI/NWRN OH...WRN/NRN IND AND ECENTRAL IL CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 101838Z - 102045Z ISOLATED TSTMS DEVELOPING ALONG A STATIONARY BNDRY FROM ECENTRAL IL NEWD INTO SCENTRAL LOWER MI MAY BEGIN TO POSE A THREAT FOR MARGINALLY SVR HAIL IN THE NEXT 1-2 HRS. GENERAL MARGINAL NATURE OF THE SVR THREAT SUGGESTS A LIMITED NEED FOR A WW FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT SEVERAL HRS. 18Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM A SFC LOW NEAR STL NEWD TO CMI TO SBN TO BTL. ALTHOUGH A BROAD AREA OF CIRRUS WAS OVER MUCH OF THE REGION... SUFFICIENT HEATING HAS OCCURRED ALONG WITH INCREASING LARGE SCALE ASCENT TO SUPPORT ISOLATED TSTM DEVELOPMENT ALONG AND NEAR THIS BOUNDARY. ALTHOUGH 3-6 KM LAPSE RATES ARE LIMITED /6 DEG C/KM/...LAPSE RATES IN A SLIGHTLY SHALLOWER LAYER /3-5 KM/ WHERE MORE ROBUST /7 DEG C/KM/. REGIONAL VWP/S INDICATE NLY FLOW IN THE 0-3 KM LAYER...WITH INCREASING SWLY FLOW ABOVE THIS LAYER. THUS...THE 0-6 KM SHEAR WAS MODEST /30-35 KTS/ AND SHOULD GRADUALLY INCREASE DURING THE NEXT FEW HRS AHEAD OF APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE MS VALLEY. THE MAIN LIMITING FACTORS FOR A MORE ORGANIZED SVR THREAT SHOULD BE THE MARGINAL INSTABILITY /MUCAPES FROM 750-1000 J/KG/ AND WEAK MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. ..CROSBIE.. 05/10/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...IWX...GRR...IND...LOT...ILX... 42718576 42178626 41128741 40488828 39248866 38998844 39238789 40108659 40978538 41728466 42468414 42738447  From mcd at goshenarc.org Wed May 10 19:35:58 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Wed, 10 May 2006 15:35:58 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 101934 SWOMCD SPC MCD 101934 TXZ000-102130- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0831 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0234 PM CDT WED MAY 10 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...SRN/SERN TX CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 101934Z - 102130Z SVR TSTMS ARE ANTICIPATED TO BEGIN DEVELOPING ALONG A COLD FRONT FROM SERN TX INTO THE MIDDLE TX COASTAL PLAIN IN THE NEXT 1-2 HRS. SVR TSTMS MAY DEVELOP AS FAR SOUTH AS THE LOWER RIO GRANDE RIVER VALLEY OF SOUTH TX. AREA WILL BE MONITORED FOR THE POTENTIAL OF ONE OR MORE WW/S BY 21Z. LATEST VIS IMAGERY SHOWS TOWERING CU DEVELOPING ALONG A COLD FRONT FROM JUST NORTH OF HOUSTON SWWD ALONG THE MIDDLE TX COASTAL PLAIN. MODIFIED RUC SOUNDINGS SHOW AN EXTREMELY UNSTABLE AIRMASS WITH MLCAPES ABOVE 5000 J/KG AND VERY LITTLE CINH REMAINING. CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT /WHICH IS 2 KM DEEP PER RECENT GRK VWP DATA/ SHOULD SUPPORT TSTM DEVELOPMENT WITHIN THE NEXT 1-2 HRS. THE COMBINATION OF MODERATE MID LEVEL FLOW /30 KTS/ AND INSTABILITY SHOULD SUPPORT RAPID STORM INTENSIFICATION AND A LARGE HAIL/DMGG WIND THREAT. A WW MAY BE NEEDED FOR THIS AREA SHORTLY. FURTHER SOUTH ALONG THE LOWER TX COAST/LOWER RIO GRANDE RIVER VALLEY...A VERY UNSTABLE AIRMASS EXISTS AS WELL. A SLIGHTLY STRONGER CAP THAN FURTHER NORTH /PER THE 12Z CRP SOUNDING/ MAY DELAY CONVECTIVE INITIATION FOR ANOTHER FEW MORE HRS...UNTIL THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES INTO THE AREA BEGINNING AROUND 21Z. AGAIN THE DEGREE OF INSTABILITY AND MODEST SHEAR WOULD SUPPORT A SVR HAIL/WIND THREAT QUICKLY AFTER ANY STORM INITIATION. SLIGHTLY GREATER LOW LVL LAPSE RATES SUGGEST THAT THE WIND THREAT MAY BE SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN IN THE MIDDLE TX COAST. ..CROSBIE.. 05/10/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...HGX...CRP...EWX...BRO... 31169486 29999676 28899810 27119913 26669912 26339880 26009808 26179791 26959748 28299676 29379478 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Wed May 10 19:43:59 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Wed, 10 May 2006 15:43:59 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 101942 SWOMCD SPC MCD 101942 ALZ000-MSZ000-LAZ000-102145- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0832 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0242 PM CDT WED MAY 10 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL MS...NE LA AND SRN AL CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 332... VALID 101942Z - 102145Z THE TORNADO THREAT WILL LIKELY INCREASE OVER THE NEXT 1 TO 2 HOURS ACROSS CNTRL MS...NE LA AND SRN AL. A STRONG TORNADO OR TWO MAY OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE STRONGER MORE WELL-DEVELOPED SUPERCELLS. DISCRETE SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT APPEARS TO BE UNDERWAY ACROSS NE LA WITH ADDITIONAL CELLS DEVELOPING ACROSS CNTRL AND ERN MS. OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS SHOWS A 45 KT LOW-LEVEL JET CENTERED OVER SWRN MS WITH STRONG LOW-LEVEL SHEAR PROFILES PRESENT ACROSS CNTRL MS EXTENDING WWD INTO NE LA AND EWD INTO SRN AL. IN ADDITION...JACKSON MS WSR-88D CURRENTLY SHOWS AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY SPREADING SWD ACROSS CNTRL MS ALONG THE I-20 CORRIDOR. AS SUPERCELLS MOVE EWD ALONG THIS BOUNDARY...THE TORNADO THREAT WILL LIKELY BECOME ENHANCED LATE THIS AFTERNOON WITH A STRONG TORNADO OR TWO POSSIBLE. THE STRONG TORNADO POTENTIAL WILL LIKELY BE GREATEST WITH SUPERCELLS THAT REMAIN DISCRETE AND TRACK ESEWD INTO THE LOW-LEVEL JET. THE INSTABILITY/SHEAR ENVIRONMENT ALSO SUGGESTS LARGE HAIL AND WIND DAMAGE WILL BE LIKELY WITH THE STRONGER STORMS. ..BROYLES.. 05/10/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...BMX...MOB...JAN...SHV... 31338790 31549126 31659229 32209266 32779241 32929119 32818921 32638804 32418715 31858699 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Wed May 10 20:24:43 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Wed, 10 May 2006 16:24:43 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 102023 SWOMCD SPC MCD 102023 GAZ000-ALZ000-102230- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0833 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0323 PM CDT WED MAY 10 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...SE AL...SRN GA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 102023Z - 102230Z A LONG-LIVED LINEAR MCS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EWD ACROSS SRN GA THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS EVENING. WIND DAMAGE AND HAIL WILL BE LIKELY WITH THE STRONGER CELLS IN THE LINE. A WW MAY BECOME NECESSARY ACROSS THE REGION BY 21Z. LATEST SFC ANALYSIS CURRENTLY SHOWS A DIFFUSE STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDING WEST TO EAST LOCATED ACROSS SCNTRL GA AND ERN AL. THE MCS IS LOCATED JUST NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY WHERE SFC DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S F AND MODERATE INSTABILITY IS PRESENT. THIS ALONG WITH SHARP PRESSURE FALLS AHEAD OF THE MCS SHOULD SUSTAIN THE CONVECTIVE LINE EWD ACROSS SRN GA OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES SHOWN ON WSR-88D VWPS WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE STORMS WITH THE STRONGER CELLS IN THE LINE. IN ADDITION...STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL FLOW MAY ENHANCE THE WIND DAMAGE POTENTIAL LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS EVENING. ..BROYLES.. 05/10/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...JAX...FFC...TAE...BMX... 31218323 31458443 31948561 32508584 33208533 33248442 33088368 32818299 32548259 31518276 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Wed May 10 20:43:55 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Wed, 10 May 2006 16:43:55 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 102042 SWOMCD SPC MCD 102042 INZ000-KYZ000-ILZ000-102245- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0834 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0342 PM CDT WED MAY 10 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...FAR SRN IL...WRN KY AND FAR SRN IND CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 102042Z - 102245Z THREAT FOR LOW TOPPED SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING ISOLATED TORNADOES APPEARS TO BE INCREASING OVER THE AREA AND A WW MAY BE NEEDED BY 22Z. LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS THAT THE AIRMASS WAS SLOWLY RECOVERING OVER WRN KY AND FAR SRN IL WITH MUCAPES AROUND 500 J/KG. A SFC LOW WAS LOCATED OVER FAR SRN IL JUST NW OF PAH AND WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ENEWD AHEAD OF A VORT MAX MOVING OUT OF SERN MO. LOW LEVEL FLOW WAS RESPONDING TO THE APPROACHING VORT MAX WITH INCREASING SLY WINDS NOTED AT BOTH THE PADUCAH AND BOWLING GREEN VWP/S. LOW LEVEL SHEAR WAS INCREASING AS A RESULT...WITH THE BOWLING GREEN VWP INDICATING AROUND 150 J/KG OF 0-1 KM SRH. LOW-TOPPED CONVECTION WAS BEGINNING TO DEVELOP ALONG A BOUNDARY EXTENDING ENEWD FROM THE SFC LOW ALONG THE OHIO RIVER WHERE THE NRN EDGE OF THE INSTABILITY AXIS EXISTED. RECENT TRENDS IN VIS SAT DATA SUGGESTS THAT HEATING WILL LIKELY INCREASE OVER THE AREA IN THE NEXT 1-2 HRS. IF THIS DOES OCCUR...INSTABILITY WOULD LIKEWISE INCREASE AND A TORNADO WW MAY BE NEEDED. ..CROSBIE.. 05/10/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LMK...PAH... 38298751 37908841 37638883 37228882 36998815 37188744 37538683 38008664 38238659 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Fri May 12 01:15:36 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Thu, 11 May 2006 21:15:36 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 120114 SWOMCD SPC MCD 120113 VAZ000-NCZ000-120215- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0848 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0813 PM CDT THU MAY 11 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...FAR SERN VA INTO ERN MD CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 342... VALID 120113Z - 120215Z POTENTIAL FOR MAINLY ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH 02Z ACROSS FAR SERN VA AND ERN MD. WW 342 WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 02Z. AS OF 0100Z...RADAR IMAGERY INDICATED A WAVY LINE OF TSTMS FROM E OF NHK TO 20 SW OF ORF MOVING NEWD AT 20-30 KTS. 00Z WAL SOUNDING INDICATES THAT STORMS ARE LIKELY MOVING INTO A REGION OF STRONGER SURFACE-BASED STABILITY OWING TO MARINE INFLUENCES...THOUGH SOME WEAK ELEVATED BUOYANCY STILL EXISTS /I.E. 700-800 J/KG OF MUCAPE/. GIVEN MODESTLY STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR OBSERVED ON THIS SOUNDING...POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR BOWING OR MARGINAL SUPERCELL STRUCTURES EMBEDDED WITHIN LARGER CONVECTIVE LINE THROUGH 02Z. LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT WITH THE MOST INTENSE STORMS. ..MEAD.. 05/12/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX... 37817638 37897601 37737547 36167565 36017639 36217695 36897654 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Fri May 12 01:46:53 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Thu, 11 May 2006 21:46:53 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 120145 SWOMCD SPC MCD 120145 NJZ000-PAZ000-DEZ000-MDZ000-120245- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0849 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0845 PM CDT THU MAY 11 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN MD/SERN PA PERHAPS INTO DE AND SWRN NJ CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 343... VALID 120145Z - 120245Z THREAT OF MAINLY ISOLATED STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS ERN PORTIONS OF WW 343 PERHAPS INTO PORTIONS OF DE AND FAR SWRN NJ. WW 343 WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 03Z. AS OF 0140Z...RADAR IMAGERY INDICATED A WEAKENING CONVECTIVE LINE FROM 20 E OF CXY TO 20 W OF WAL WITH INDIVIDUAL CELL MOTIONS NEWD AT 25-30 KTS. AS MENTIONED IN PREVIOUS MESOSCALE DISCUSSION /848/ IT APPEARS THAT THIS CONVECTION IS ENCOUNTERING AN INCREASINGLY MORE STABLE ENVIRONMENT AS IT APPROACHES THE COAST. MODESTLY STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR WILL MAINTAIN AT LEAST A MARGINAL THREAT OF LOCALLY STRONG WIND GUSTS WITH THE MORE INTENSE STORMS...THOUGH IT APPEARS OVERALL SEVERE POTENTIAL SHOULD CONTINUE TO DECREASE THROUGH 03Z. ..MEAD.. 05/12/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...PHI...AKQ...CTP...LWX... 40077645 40347603 40157531 38987511 38357546 38457598 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Sat May 13 18:40:50 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Sat, 13 May 2006 14:40:50 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 131837 SWOMCD SPC MCD 131837 GAZ000-FLZ000-ALZ000-MSZ000-132030- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0850 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0137 PM CDT SAT MAY 13 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS SWRN GA...SRN/WRN AL...NRN FL PANHANDLE...NRN/ERN MS. CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 131837Z - 132030Z CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL WILL INCREASE ACROSS DISCUSSION AREA THROUGH 21Z. SOME SUPERCELLS ARE POSSIBLE...PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING GUSTS. AREA WILL BE MONITORED FOR POSSIBLE WW. SFC MESOANALYSIS...VIS SATELLITE TRENDS AND REFLECTIVITY ANIMATIONS ALL SHOW OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM MORNING CONVECTIVE COMPLEX....AS OF 18Z...MOVING SWD ABOUT 10 KT ACROSS LINE FROM EARLY COUNTY GA TO NRN COVINGTON COUNTY AL. BOUNDARY HAS BECOME QUASISTATIONARY FARTHER WNWWD FROM BUTLER COUNTY AL TO NEAR MEI AND DIFFUSE NNWWD BETWEEN TUP-GWO. IT SHOULD STALL WITHIN NEXT COUPLE HOURS NEAR NRN BORDER OF FL PANHANDLE WITH SWRN GA. THOUGH CINH IS WEAKENING ON BOTH SIDES...BOUNDARY ITSELF WILL FOCUS MAXIMIZED CONVERGENCE...LOW LEVEL SHEAR AND SFC VORTICITY...AND SHOULD AID CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT/PROPAGATION THROUGH MID-AFTERNOON. AIR MASS NW OF OUTFLOW POOL ACROSS NRN MS IS DESTABILIZING RAPIDLY ALSO BASED ON ACARS/RUC SOUNDINGS AND WILL SUPPORT STRONG-SEVERE TSTMS. MODIFIED RAOBS AS WELL AS WRF AND RUC SOUNDINGS SUGGEST CINH VANISHES WITH SFC TEMPS LOW 80S F...AS ARE BEGINNING TO OCCUR ON SRN/WARM SIDE OF BOUNDARY...AND DEW POINTS MID-UPPER 50S...WHICH CHARACTERIZE COOL NRN SIDE. LAPSE RATES STEEPEN WITH WWD EXTENT...SUPPORTING POTENTIAL MLCAPES 1500 J/KG ACROSS NRN/ERN MS TO 500 J/KG OR LESS SWRN GA/NRN FL PANHANDLE. RELATIVELY DRY SUBCLOUD LAYER OVER WARM SECTOR LIMITS CAPE...BUT ALSO SUPPORT MAINTAINING INTENSITY OF HAIL/GUSTS FROM DOWNDRAFT ORIGINS DOWN TO SFC. THOUGH SFC FLOW IS WEAK...DEEPER VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES FAVOR SUPERCELLS AND BOWS...WITH ROUGHLY 50 KT 0-6 KM SHEAR. ..EDWARDS.. 05/13/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...TAE...BMX...MOB...MEG...JAN... 30928607 31658801 32908958 34189074 34969002 34748839 33748813 32628770 31548590 31368488 31278457 30868437 30578440 30558490 30808574  From mcd at goshenarc.org Sat May 13 21:41:41 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Sat, 13 May 2006 17:41:41 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 132140 SWOMCD SPC MCD 132139 TXZ000-132315- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0851 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0439 PM CDT SAT MAY 13 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...TX S PLAINS INTO W-CNTRL AND SWRN TX CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 132139Z - 132315Z POTENTIAL FOR MAINLY LOCALLY STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL EXIST WITH DEVELOPING STORMS INTO THIS EVENING. A WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED. AS OF 2125Z...REGIONAL RADAR AND VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED TOWERING CUMULUS AND EARLY TSTM DEVELOPMENT ALONG A COUPLE OF SURFACE BOUNDARIES FROM S OF LBB TO W OF ABI AND THEN SWWD TO FST. AMBIENT AIR MASS HAS WARMED THROUGH THE 90S TO AROUND 100 F WHICH IS RESULTING A DEEP AND WELL-MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER /I.E. UP TO 650 MB PER RUC PROXIMITY SOUNDINGS/. MOREOVER...CORRESPONDING RUC HODOGRAPHS AND CURRENT JAYTON PROFILER INDICATE LOW-LEVEL SLY WINDS VEERING TO NWLY IN THE MID TO UPPER TROPOSPHERE WITH 35-40 KTS OF EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR. DESPITE THE ABSENCE OF AN APPRECIABLE LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT...STRONG DIABATIC HEATING COUPLED WITH CONVERGENCE ALONG EXISTING LOW-LEVEL BOUNDARIES SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT AN INCREASE IN TSTM DEVELOPMENT INTO THIS EVENING. DAMAGING WINDS APPEAR TO BE THE PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT OWING TO STRONG EVAPORATIVE COOLING POTENTIAL /I.E. DCAPES AOA 1500 J/KG/. SOME HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS. ..MEAD.. 05/13/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...SJT...LUB...MAF... 30520238 31130254 32300054 32900149 33410137 33550019 32899942 32109932 31350014 30310190 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Sat May 13 22:35:30 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Sat, 13 May 2006 18:35:30 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 132234 SWOMCD SPC MCD 132233 ALZ000-TNZ000-MSZ000-140000- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0852 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0533 PM CDT SAT MAY 13 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...NERN MS INTO NRN AND CNTRL AL CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 132233Z - 140000Z SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL APPEARS TO BE INCREASING ACROSS DISCUSSION AREA AND CONVECTIVE TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED FOR A WW. COLUMBUS AFB MS RADAR INDICATES THAT A TSTMS HAVE RECENTLY DEVELOPED OVER UNION COUNTY IN NERN MS AND LINCOLN COUNTY INTO SRN MIDDLE TN...PRESUMABLY ALONG A NWD-RETREATING BOUNDARY /PER VISIBLE SATELLITE/. SHORT TERM MODEL GUIDANCE AND WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SUGGEST THAT THIS CONVECTION IS DEVELOPING WITHIN EXIT REGION OF 70-80 KT MID-LEVEL JET STREAK DIGGING SEWD THROUGH THE TN VALLEY INTO CNTRL GULF STATES. RUC FORECAST SOUNDINGS WOULD INDICATE THAT AIR MASS IS NOT PARTICULARLY UNSTABLE OWING TO THE MARGINAL BOUNDARY-LAYER MOISTURE...THOUGH SBCAPES STILL REMAIN AROUND 1000 J/KG. HOWEVER...VERTICAL SHEAR IS QUITE STRONG WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THIS JET STREAK /REF. OKOLONA MS PROFILER/ WITH AROUND 60 KTS OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR. SHOULD STORMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND BECOME SUSTAINED...THE INCREASED FORCING FOR ASCENT AND STRENGTHENING VERTICAL SHEAR WILL SUPPORT POTENTIAL FOR A FORWARD PROPAGATING MCS /WITH EMBEDDED BOWS AND SUPERCELLS/ CAPABLE OF PRIMARILY DAMAGING WINDS. THIS THREAT WOULD LIKELY SPREAD SEWD INTO CNTRL AL TONIGHT. ..MEAD.. 05/13/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...OHX...BMX...HUN...MEG...JAN... 34668919 35098883 35198704 34838610 33608601 33188709 33388851 34018923 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Sat May 13 23:58:57 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Sat, 13 May 2006 19:58:57 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 132357 SWOMCD SPC MCD 132357 SCZ000-GAZ000-NCZ000-TNZ000-140100- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0853 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0657 PM CDT SAT MAY 13 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...SERN TN INTO NRN GA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 132357Z - 140100Z POTENTIAL FOR MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL AND LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS APPEARS TO BE INCREASING ACROSS DISCUSSION AREA AND AN ADDITIONAL WW MAY BE NECESSARY. TSTMS CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY THIS EVENING OVER SRN MIDDLE TN FROM LINCOLN EWD TO MARION COUNTY. THESE STORMS ARE MOVING LEFT OF THE MEAN WIND AND MAY NOT TRULY BE ROOTED IN BOUNDARY-LAYER. GIVEN INCREASE IN FORCING FOR ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH UPSTREAM JET STREAK DIVING SEWD THROUGH THE WRN TN VALLEY...AND INCREASING WAA TONIGHT ALONG SWLY LLJ...THIS ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. ..MEAD.. 05/13/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...GSP...MRX...FFC...OHX... 35318562 35598481 35328362 34668323 34158367 33808413 33788472 33948536 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Sun May 14 00:53:33 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Sat, 13 May 2006 20:53:33 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 140052 SWOMCD SPC MCD 140051 GAZ000-ALZ000-140145- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0854 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0751 PM CDT SAT MAY 13 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...W-CNTRL GA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 140051Z - 140145Z POTENTIAL FOR MAINLY SEVERE HAIL IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE E OF WW 344 INTO W-CNTRL GA AFTER 0130-0200Z. CONVECTIVE TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE WW. LATEST MESOANALYSIS INDICATED REMNANT OUTFLOW BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM NERN MS /E OF TUP/ SEWD THROUGH S-CNTRL AL INTO THE FL PNHDL. WAA/ISENTROPIC ASCENT OVER THIS BOUNDARY...DRIVEN BY INTENSIFYING WSWLY LLJ FROM THE LOWER MS VALLEY INTO AL...IS LIKELY SUPPORTING ONGOING TSTMS SE OF BHM. INSPECTION OF 14/00Z BHM SOUNDING SUGGESTS THAT THESE STORMS ARE LIKELY BASED AT 850 MB WHERE MUCAPES REMAIN AROUND 1500 J/KG. POSSIBLY MORE IMPORTANTLY IS THE RATHER STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR THROUGH THE CLOUD BEARING LAYER. FURTHER STRENGTHENING OF WLY LLJ IS FORECAST OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS IN RESPONSE TO MID-LEVEL JET STREAK DIVING SEWD THROUGH THE REGION. INFLUX OF POTENTIALLY MORE UNSTABLE AIR MASS FROM THE SW ATOP OUTFLOW BOUNDARY SHOULD MAINTAIN ONGOING STORMS...WITH REDEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE ON UPSHEAR PART OF COMPLEX. SEVERE HAIL WILL LIKELY BE THE PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT...UNLESS STORMS CAN ORGANIZE A COLD POOL...WHICH WOULD ENHANCE THE RISK OF DAMAGING WINDS. ..MEAD.. 05/14/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...FFC...BMX... 33588518 33678468 33578389 32948347 32148395 32148467 32478498 32768510 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Sun May 14 02:39:23 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Sat, 13 May 2006 22:39:23 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 140237 SWOMCD SPC MCD 140237 TXZ000-OKZ000-140400- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0855 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0937 PM CDT SAT MAY 13 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...NRN TX AND SRN OK CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 140237Z - 140400Z POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF MAINLY LARGE HAIL APPEARS TO BE INCREASING ACROSS DISCUSSION AREA. STORM INITIATION IS ANTICIPATED BETWEEN 03 AND 04Z. A WW WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED. 02Z MESOANALYSIS INDICATED QUASI-STATIONARY OR WEAK COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY FROM SURFACE LOW N OF MAF ENEWD THROUGH NRN TX AND THEN INTO CNTRL OR SRN AR. AS MENTIONED IN 01Z CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK...14/00Z FTW SOUNDING INDICATED A RATHER STRONG CAP IN PLACE ACROSS WARM SECTOR. VWP TRENDS FROM DYESS AFB INDICATE THAT LLJ HAS INTENSIFIED TO 30-40 KTS OVER THE PAST HOUR...WHICH IS LIKELY ENHANCING CONVERGENCE ALONG FRONTAL ZONE OVER NWRN TX...AND EFFECTIVELY WEAKENING CAP. LATEST SHORT-TERM RUC GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THE INITIATION OF DEEP CONVECTION WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY LIKELY BETWEEN 14/03-04Z ALONG OR SLIGHTLY N OF SURFACE BOUNDARY ALONG THE RED RIVER. THE PRESENCE OF STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES / 8-8.5 C/KM / AND A POTENTIALLY MODERATELY TO STRONGLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS / MUCAPES OF 2000-3000 J/KG / SHOULD SUPPORT RAPID STORM DEVELOPMENT WITH SUFFICIENT DEEP-LAYER VERTICAL SHEAR FOR SUPERCELLS. ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL LIKELY BE SLIGHTLY ELEVATED WITH THE GREATEST THREAT BEING FROM LARGE HAIL. HOWEVER...POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS AND PERHAPS A BRIEF TORNADO OR TWO WITH ANY STORMS THAT CAN BECOME ROOTED IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER. ..MEAD.. 05/14/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...SHV...TSA...FWD...OUN...SJT...LUB... 33080000 33930022 34359962 34489862 34289716 34159591 33679526 33059561 32659687 32839911 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Sun May 14 03:47:36 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Sat, 13 May 2006 23:47:36 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 140346 SWOMCD SPC MCD 140345 GAZ000-140445- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0856 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1045 PM CDT SAT MAY 13 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL INTO SWRN GA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 140345Z - 140445Z POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED SEVERE HAIL AND LOCALLY STRONG WIND GUSTS SHOULD TEND TO DIMINISH PRIOR TO 0430Z. AS OF 0340Z...RADAR IMAGERY SHOWED A FAIRLY LONG-LIVED SUPERCELL MOVING SEWD THROUGH WEBSTER AND SUMTER COUNTIES IN SWRN GA WITH ADDITIONAL STRONG TO POTENTIALLY SEVERE STORMS EXTENDING NEWD INTO TAYLOR COUNTY. WHILE VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES REMAIN QUITE STRONG AND SUPPORTIVE OF A CONTINUING SEVERE WEATHER THREAT...RUC OBJECTIVE FIELDS SUGGEST THAT THESE STORMS ARE MOVING S OF ERN BRANCH OF WSWLY LLJ...AND INTO A PROGRESSIVELY MORE STABLE ENVIRONMENT. THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED SEVERE HAIL AND LOCALLY STRONG WINDS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH 0400-0430Z...WITH STORMS LIKELY WEAKENING THEREAFTER. ..MEAD.. 05/14/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...FFC...TAE... 32148469 32678429 32828313 31948274 31668454 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Sun May 14 04:23:30 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Sun, 14 May 2006 00:23:30 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 140422 SWOMCD SPC MCD 140421 SCZ000-GAZ000-NCZ000-TNZ000-ALZ000-140515- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0857 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1121 PM CDT SAT MAY 13 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...NRN PORTIONS OF AL/GA...SRN MIDDLE AND SERN TN INTO THE FAR WRN CAROLINAS CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 344...345... VALID 140421Z - 140515Z MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE WITH STRONGEST STORMS BEYOND 05Z. THIS THREAT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN ISOLATED AND AN ADDITIONAL WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED. AS OF 0410Z...REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY SHOWED CLUSTERS OF TSTMS FROM JACKSON AND CHEROKEE COUNTIES IN NERN AL NEWD INTO POLK COUNTY IN SERN TN. MORE RECENT STORM DEVELOPMENT HAS ALSO OCCURRED FARTHER TO THE W NEAR SURFACE COLD FRONT OVER PRENTISS AND TISHOMINGO COUNTIES IN FAR NERN MS. DEEP-LAYER FORCING FOR ASCENT WITHIN LEFT EXIT REGION OF 70-80 KT MID-LEVEL JET STREAK DIVING SEWD THROUGH THE WRN TN VALLEY...IN CONJUCTION WITH LOWER LEVEL ISENTROPIC ASCENT ALONG WSWLY LLJ...HAVE LARGELY DRIVEN CONVECTION ACROSS WW/S 344 AND 345 TONIGHT. REGIONAL VWPS AND PROFILERS INDICATE THAT VERTICAL SHEAR REMAINS QUITE STRONG AHEAD OF COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE TN VALLEY. HOWEVER...RUC OBJECTIVE FIELDS SUGGEST THAT PRE-FRONTAL AIR MASS IS SLOWLY STABILIZING. EXPECT TSTMS TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT ALONG COLD FRONT AS WELL AS WITHIN PRE-FRONTAL AIR MASS WHERE ISENTROPIC ASCENT OVER SURFACE OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES REMAINS LOCALLY ENHANCED. THE STRONG FORCING FOR ASCENT AND VERTICAL SHEAR WILL MAINTAIN A THREAT OF A FEW SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF MAINLY SEVERE HAIL. A MORE ORGANIZED SEVERE THREAT WILL LIKELY BE LIMITED BY THE WEAKENING INSTABILITY. ..MEAD.. 05/14/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...GSP...MRX...FFC...OHX...BMX...HUN...MEG... 35588811 35748712 35748310 34128254 33828514 33238525 33768790 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Sun May 14 07:29:03 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Sun, 14 May 2006 03:29:03 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 140727 SWOMCD SPC MCD 140727 MSZ000-LAZ000-ARZ000-TXZ000-OKZ000-140900- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0858 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0227 AM CDT SUN MAY 14 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF NRN/ERN TX INTO LA...CNTRL/SRN MS CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 346...347... VALID 140727Z - 140900Z CONTINUE WWS 346 AND 347. ADDITIONAL WWS SOUTH/EASTWARD ACROSS LOUISIANA INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY/CENTRAL GULF COAST STATES ARE NOT ANTICIPATED. ONGOING SCATTERED VIGOROUS CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT APPEARS TO HAVE BEEN INITIATED BY LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION/WEAKENING MID-LEVEL INHIBITION ASSOCIATED WITH IMPULSE EMBEDDED WITHIN BELT OF CYCLONIC FLOW...SOUTH OF UPPER MIDWEST UPPER LOW. THIS FORCING WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD EASTWARD ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THROUGH DAYBREAK...PERHAPS FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER IMPULSE EMANATING FROM THE NORTH CENTRAL ROCKIES. FORCING WITH UPSTREAM SYSTEM COULD SUPPORT ADDITIONAL CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT NEAR LOW-LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE EXTENDING ACROSS NORTHERN TEXAS INTO NORTHERN LOUISIANA...BUT STORMS SEEM LIKELY TO REMAIN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED IN NATURE DUE TO LACK OF MORE FOCUSED LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE. STILL...FAVORABLY SHEARED CLOUD BEARING LAYER WITH CAPE OF 1000 TO 2000 J/KG ABOVE FRONTAL INVERSION WILL REMAIN SUPPORTIVE OF LARGE HAIL IN STRONGER CELLS. HAIL THREAT IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH WITH STORMS DEVELOPING EAST OF STEEPER MID- LEVEL LAPSE RATE ENVIRONMENT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. ..KERR.. 05/14/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...JAN...LIX...LZK...LCH...SHV...FWD...OUN... 33489846 33719777 33799555 33509387 33409298 33279082 32638945 30888995 30379129 31049285 31629410 32069632 32339756 32949842 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Sun May 14 09:02:12 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Sun, 14 May 2006 05:02:12 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 140900 SWOMCD SPC MCD 140900 SCZ000-GAZ000-141030- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0859 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0400 AM CDT SUN MAY 14 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...NE GA INTO WRN SC CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 140900Z - 141030Z A WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED...BUT TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED. RECENT VIGOROUS CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT NORTH/EAST OF GAINESVILLE GA IS OCCURRING IN EXIT REGION OF 70 KT CYCLONIC JET PROGRESSING AROUND BASE OF UPPER MIDWEST UPPER LOW. FORCING HAS ENHANCED ISENTROPIC ASCENT IN WARM FRONTAL ZONE...WHERE NARROW TONGUE OF BETTER MOISTURE ADVECTING OUT OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY HAS CONTRIBUTED TO MOST UNSTABLE CAPE AROUND 1000 J/KG. SHEAR PROFILES IN CLOUD BEARING LAYER...BASED ABOVE FRONTAL INVERSION...ARE SUPPORTIVE OF UPDRAFT ROTATION...WHICH IS CONTRIBUTING TO LARGE HAIL POTENTIAL. HOWEVER...MODELS SUGGEST AS UPSTREAM COLD FRONT ADVANCES INTO THE NORTHERN GULF STATES NEXT FEW HOURS...MOISTURE RETURN WILL BECOME CUT-OFF. THIS IS EXPECTED TO LIMIT DESTABILIZATION AS STRONGER MID/UPPER FORCING SHIFTS EASTWARD ACROSS WESTERN INTO CENTRAL SOUTH CAROLINA THROUGH 11-12Z...AND HAIL POTENTIAL SEEMS LIKELY TO DIMINISH. ..KERR.. 05/14/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...CAE...GSP...FFC... 34818325 34908262 34798165 34168108 33628115 33488177 33838251 34468399 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Sun May 14 10:25:55 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Sun, 14 May 2006 06:25:55 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 141024 SWOMCD SPC MCD 141023 LAZ000-TXZ000-141130- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0860 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0523 AM CDT SUN MAY 14 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTHEAST TX CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 346...347... VALID 141023Z - 141130Z CONVECTIVE TRENDS ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF INCREASING SEVERE POTENTIAL BY MID MORNING. WWS 346 AND 347 MAY BE REPLACED WITH NEW WW BY 11Z. SOUTH OF STALLED FRONTAL ZONE...BOUNDARY LAYER IS VERY MOIST WITH SURFACE DEW POINTS NEAR 70F. BENEATH STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES...THIS IS CONTRIBUTING TO RATHER LARGE CAPE...ON THE ORDER OF 2000 TO 3000 J/KG. STRONG INHIBITION CONTINUES TO SUPPRESS CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT...HOWEVER...AND CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY EXISTS CONCERNING FORCING TO WEAKEN INHIBITION. POSSIBLE GRAVITY WAVE ASSOCIATED WITH WEAKENING CONVECTION NEAR WACO MAY BE IN PROCESS OF WEAKENING CAP. AND...MODELS SUGGEST A GRADUAL MID-LEVEL COOLING ASSOCIATED WITH IMPULSE SHIFTING INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY COULD WEAKEN INHIBITION ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS INTO UPPER TEXAS COASTAL AREAS DURING THE 12-15Z TIME FRAME. IF THIS OCCURS...SURFACE OR NEAR SURFACE BASED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WOULD LIKELY BE ACCOMPANIED BY INCREASING RISK FOR LARGE HAIL. THOUGH FLOW FIELDS/SHEAR PROFILES ARE NOT PARTICULARLY STRONG...LOW HUMIDITIES IN THE LOWER/MID TROPOSPHERE PROVIDE POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING DOWNBURSTS AND POSSIBLE SURFACE COLD POOL EVOLUTION. ..KERR.. 05/14/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LCH...SHV...HGX...FWD...EWX... 31459717 31729568 30869438 29879333 29239474 29149570 29359671 29959722 30449737 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Sun May 14 11:30:02 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Sun, 14 May 2006 07:30:02 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 140900 SWOMCD SPC MCD 140900 SCZ000-GAZ000-141030- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0859 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0400 AM CDT SUN MAY 14 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...NE GA INTO WRN SC CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 140900Z - 141030Z A WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED...BUT TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED. RECENT VIGOROUS CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT NORTH/EAST OF GAINESVILLE GA IS OCCURRING IN EXIT REGION OF 70 KT CYCLONIC JET PROGRESSING AROUND BASE OF UPPER MIDWEST UPPER LOW. FORCING HAS ENHANCED ISENTROPIC ASCENT IN WARM FRONTAL ZONE...WHERE NARROW TONGUE OF BETTER MOISTURE ADVECTING OUT OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY HAS CONTRIBUTED TO MOST UNSTABLE CAPE AROUND 1000 J/KG. SHEAR PROFILES IN CLOUD BEARING LAYER...BASED ABOVE FRONTAL INVERSION...ARE SUPPORTIVE OF UPDRAFT ROTATION...WHICH IS CONTRIBUTING TO LARGE HAIL POTENTIAL. HOWEVER...MODELS SUGGEST AS UPSTREAM COLD FRONT ADVANCES INTO THE NORTHERN GULF STATES NEXT FEW HOURS...MOISTURE RETURN WILL BECOME CUT-OFF. THIS IS EXPECTED TO LIMIT DESTABILIZATION AS STRONGER MID/UPPER FORCING SHIFTS EASTWARD ACROSS WESTERN INTO CENTRAL SOUTH CAROLINA THROUGH 11-12Z...AND HAIL POTENTIAL SEEMS LIKELY TO DIMINISH. ..KERR.. 05/14/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...CAE...GSP...FFC... 34818325 34908262 34798165 34168108 33628115 33488177 33838251 34468399  From mcd at goshenarc.org Sun May 14 12:12:20 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Sun, 14 May 2006 08:12:20 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 141024 SWOMCD SPC MCD 141023 LAZ000-TXZ000-141130- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0860 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0523 AM CDT SUN MAY 14 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTHEAST TX CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 346...347... VALID 141023Z - 141130Z CONVECTIVE TRENDS ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF INCREASING SEVERE POTENTIAL BY MID MORNING. WWS 346 AND 347 MAY BE REPLACED WITH NEW WW BY 11Z. SOUTH OF STALLED FRONTAL ZONE...BOUNDARY LAYER IS VERY MOIST WITH SURFACE DEW POINTS NEAR 70F. BENEATH STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES...THIS IS CONTRIBUTING TO RATHER LARGE CAPE...ON THE ORDER OF 2000 TO 3000 J/KG. STRONG INHIBITION CONTINUES TO SUPPRESS CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT...HOWEVER...AND CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY EXISTS CONCERNING FORCING TO WEAKEN INHIBITION. POSSIBLE GRAVITY WAVE ASSOCIATED WITH WEAKENING CONVECTION NEAR WACO MAY BE IN PROCESS OF WEAKENING CAP. AND...MODELS SUGGEST A GRADUAL MID-LEVEL COOLING ASSOCIATED WITH IMPULSE SHIFTING INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY COULD WEAKEN INHIBITION ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS INTO UPPER TEXAS COASTAL AREAS DURING THE 12-15Z TIME FRAME. IF THIS OCCURS...SURFACE OR NEAR SURFACE BASED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WOULD LIKELY BE ACCOMPANIED BY INCREASING RISK FOR LARGE HAIL. THOUGH FLOW FIELDS/SHEAR PROFILES ARE NOT PARTICULARLY STRONG...LOW HUMIDITIES IN THE LOWER/MID TROPOSPHERE PROVIDE POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING DOWNBURSTS AND POSSIBLE SURFACE COLD POOL EVOLUTION. ..KERR.. 05/14/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LCH...SHV...HGX...FWD...EWX... 31459717 31729568 30869438 29879333 29239474 29149570 29359671 29959722 30449737  From mcd at goshenarc.org Sun May 14 14:05:46 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Sun, 14 May 2006 10:05:46 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 141404 SWOMCD SPC MCD 141404 MSZ000-LAZ000-TXZ000-141530- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0861 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0904 AM CDT SUN MAY 14 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS CENTRAL/ERN TX...LA...SRN/WRN MS. CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 348... VALID 141404Z - 141530Z REPLACEMENT WW IS LIKELY SHORTLY. MAIN SEVERE EMPHASIS NEXT 2-3 HOURS MAY BE BETWEEN POE-LCH...AS COLD POOL ASSOCIATED WITH ANGELINA/JASPER COUNTY BOW ECHO FORCES ASCENT IN INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS. MCS WITH HISTORY OF PRODUCING HAIL TO 1.75 INCH DIAMETER SHOULD MOVE SEWD OUT OF WW AND TOWARD GULF COAST OF SWRN LA/EXTREME SE TX THROUGH 19Z. WIND DAMAGE POTENTIAL SHOULD INCREASE AS FOREGOING SFC AIR MASS HEATS...MIXES...DESTABILIZES AND COUPLES TO WHAT IS NOW ELEVATED INFLOW LAYER. ACTIVITY ALSO MAY BACKBUILD ACROSS CENTRAL/SE TX WHERE RICHER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND STEEP LAPSE RATES ARE PRESENT...AND STRONG SFC HEATING WILL OCCUR TO DESTABILIZE BOUNDARY LAYER. SFC MESOANALYSIS SHOWS UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S SFC DEW POINTS S AND SE OF CENTRAL TX BAROCLINIC ZONE...COVERING MOST OF S-CENTRAL/SE TX. NRN EDGE OF STRONG CAPPING EVIDENT IN CRP RAOB IS INDEFINITE BUT MAY LIMIT CONVECTIVE COVERAGE FOR A FEW MORE HOURS PENDING MORE INTENSE HEATING AND/OR FORCING ALONG OUTFLOW FROM SE TX ACTIVITY. SVR POTENTIAL SHOULD BECOME MORE MRGL WITH EWD EXTENT ACROSS LA/MS GULF COASTAL PLAIN AS MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES DIMINISH...WITH LESS FAVORABLE LOW LEVEL AIR MASS ABOVE SFC AS WELL. ALTHOUGH SFC MOIST ADVECTION IS EVIDENT WITH WEAK SWLY FLOW AND MID/UPPER 60S DEW POINTS UPSTREAM...925 AND 850 MB ANALYSES INDICATE PRONOUNCED DRYING ABOVE. HEATING/MIXING ACROSS THIS REGION MAY STEEPEN BOUNDARY LAYER LAPSE RATES AND HELP MAINTAIN GUSTS/HAIL TO SFC IN MOST INTENSE CELLS. ..EDWARDS.. 05/14/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MOB...JAN...LIX...LCH...SHV...HGX...FWD...EWX... 32029691 32189546 31639382 32509253 32788997 30748883 29969041 29479184 29769321 29279484 29739902 31899778 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Sun May 14 16:07:16 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Sun, 14 May 2006 12:07:16 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 141605 SWOMCD SPC MCD 141605 TXZ000-141900- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0862 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1105 AM CDT SUN MAY 14 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS CENTRAL/SE TX CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL VALID 141605Z - 141900Z RAIN RATES 2-3 INCHES/HOUR ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FROM ONGOING ACTIVITY OVER LIMESTONE/FREESTONE COUNTIES AS IT CONTINUES TO MERGE THEN SHIFTS SWD/SEWD TOWARD CLL REGION...AND ALSO...FROM ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY WSWWD TOWARD TPL/AUS AREA. CONVECTIVE COVERAGE SHOULD BECOME MORE DENSE ACROSS MUCH OF DISCUSSION AREA. MERGING AND TRAINING OF CORES WILL PROLONG HEAVY RAIN RATES IN SOME LOCALES...ENHANCING THIS HAZARD. REF WW 349 AND RELATED MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS FOR SVR THREAT OVER THIS REGION. IN ADDITION TO IMPACT ON SVR POTENTIAL...LARGE BUOYANCY RESULTING FROM STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES AND SFC HEATING OF MOIST INFLOW SECTOR WILL AID PRECIP PRODUCTION...AMIDST FAVORABLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONTENT. SFC DEW POINTS AOA 70 F ARE ANALYZED IN PROSPECTIVE INFLOW SECTOR ACROSS CENTRAL/SE TX...AND SHOULD NOT MIX AWAY GIVEN STRONG CAPPING EVIDENT FARTHER S IN CRP RAOB. 12Z UPPER AIR ANALYSES SHOW MOISTURE ABOVE SFC MAXIMIZED IN DRT-LFK CORRIDOR...WITH DEW POINTS 17-20 DEG C AT 925 MB...AND 13-15 DEC G AT 850 MB. GPS-PW DATA AND RUC SOUNDINGS INDICATE PW IN 1.25-1.5 INCH RANGE...LOCALLY SLIGHTLY HIGHER. OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM MCS OVER LOWER SABINE RIVER AREA SHOULD STALL PARALLEL TO AND JUST E OF I-45 FROM SAN JACINTO COUNTY NWD...ASSOCIATED INSTABILITY GRADIENT PROVIDING BOTH A FOCUS AND ERN BOUND FOR GREATEST RAINFALL POTENTIAL. ..EDWARDS.. 05/14/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...HGX...FWD...EWX... 29979784 29919820 30489830 30839824 31389814 31389703 31769679 31859637 31749606 31479582 30949558 30669538 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Sun May 14 16:22:45 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Sun, 14 May 2006 12:22:45 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 141621 SWOMCD SPC MCD 141620 NCZ000-VAZ000-SCZ000-WVZ000-TNZ000-141815- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0863 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1120 AM CDT SUN MAY 14 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS VA...NC...NRN SC...SERN WV. CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 141620Z - 141815Z SEVERE POTENTIAL IS EXPECTED TO BECOME LESS ISOLATED AND BETTER ORGANIZED THROUGH AT LEAST 20Z. SEVERE TSTM WW WILL BE ISSUED SHORTLY FOR WESTERN PORTION OF THIS AREA. WW SUBSEQUENTLY MAY BE REQUIRED FOR SOME PORTION OF THIS REGION FARTHER E AS WELL. 16Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS DIFFERENTIAL HEATING BOUNDARY -- ASSOCIATED WITH BAND OF WAA RELATED CONVECTION NOW MOVING NEWD ACROSS ERN VA/EXTREME NERN NC -- ANALYZED FROM SRN PAMLICO SOUND WNWWD ACROSS WAKE COUNTY TO VICINITY DAN. THIS BOUNDARY SHOULD MIX/MOVE NEWD 15-25 KT WITH ASSOCIATED DESTABILIZATION SPREADING INTO S-CENTRAL/SERN VA AND NERN NC. RELATIVELY STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES OF AROUND 7-8 DEG C/KM -- EVIDENT IN MORNING GSO RAOB -- ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AFFECTING WRN NC...WRN VA AND SERN WV...AND SHIFT NEWD ACROSS PORTIONS CENTRAL NC THROUGH CENTRAL VA. THIS WILL COMBINE WITH SFC HEATING TO FURTHER REDUCE CINH AND BOOST MLCAPES TO AROUND 1000 J/KG FROM W-CENTRAL VA SSWWD TO EXTREME N-CENTRAL SC. ALTHOUGH LAPSE RATES WEAKEN WITH EWD EXTENT...STRONGER SFC HEATING WILL CONTRIBUTE TO SIMILAR BUOYANCY OVER CENTRAL/SRN NC AND S-CENTRAL VA...SW OF BOUNDARY. FAVORABLE DEEP-LAYER VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES -- I.E., 40-50 KT 0-6 KM SHEAR INCREASING WITH SWD EXTENT BENEATH MIDLEVEL SPEED MAX...WILL SUPPORT SVR POTENTIAL. ..EDWARDS.. 05/14/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...LWX...RAH...ILM...RNK...RLX...CAE...GSP...MRX... 34028082 34458176 35458219 37648121 38327818 37417761 36057645 35067624 34067875 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Sun May 14 17:25:43 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Sun, 14 May 2006 13:25:43 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 141724 SWOMCD SPC MCD 141723 LAZ000-TXZ000-141930- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0864 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1223 PM CDT SUN MAY 14 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS S-CENTRAL/SWRN LA...S-CENTRAL/SE TX.L CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 349... VALID 141723Z - 141930Z BULK OF SEVERE POTENTIAL FCST TO SHIFT TO WRN PORTION WW WITH MUCH OF SABINE RIVER REGION EWD BEING SIGNIFICANTLY STABILIZED BY BOWING MCS THAT HAS CLEARED LCH REGION. ERN PORTION MCS WILL AFFECT MUCH OF VERMILION PARISH BEFORE MOVING OFFSHORE...WITH HAIL AND DAMAGING GUSTS STILL POSSIBLE. AT 17Z...OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WAS ANALYZED FROM CHAMBERS COUNTY NWWD ACROSS TRINITY BAY AND NRN HARRIS COUNTY...THEN NNWWD NEAR I-45. THIS FEATURE SHOULD CONTINUE TO MOVE SWWD AND MERGE WITH INITIALLY SEPARATE CONFLUENCE LINE...WHICH IS ANALYZED FROM GLS WNWWD ACROSS FT BEND/AUSTIN COUNTIES...TO NEAR WILLIAMSON/MILAM COUNTY LINE. COMBINED OUTFLOW/CONFLUENCE LINE OVER HOU AREA MAY FOCUS ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT AND/OR PROPAGATION OF ERN PORTION OF ANOTHER MCS EVIDENT AT 17Z BETWEEN LEON AND CORYELL COUNTIES. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD MOVE SWD AND SEWD INTO FAVORABLY MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS INVOF CONFLUENCE LINE...WITH POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE HAIL...WIND DAMAGE AND HEAVY RAINFALL. REF MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 862 FOR ASSOCIATED HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL. STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES TO NEAR 9 DEG C/KM AND 70S F SFC DEW POINTS WILL SUPPORT MLCAPES OVER 3000 J/KG IN MUCH OF CENTRAL TX...AHEAD OF THIS COMPLEX. NRN EXTENT OF STRONG CAPPING EVIDENT IN 12Z CRP RAOB SHOULD LIMIT POTENTIAL S OF WW FOR SEVERAL HOURS. HOWEVER...SWWD/WWD BACKBUILDING MAY OCCUR ACROSS SRN HILL COUNTRY TO UVA/DRT AREA. ..EDWARDS.. 05/14/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LIX...LCH...HGX...FWD...EWX...SJT... 29679340 29709291 29979262 30719236 31059194 30769164 29929128 29189164 29459339 28659512 28919530 28849554 29209586 28969628 29279668 29079690 29389722 29139759 29449812 29119840 29339896 30169909 30819902 31379730 31339556 30989492 30099441 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Sun May 14 18:10:25 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Sun, 14 May 2006 14:10:25 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 141808 SWOMCD SPC MCD 141808 TXZ000-NMZ000-142045- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0865 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0108 PM CDT SUN MAY 14 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS N-CENTRAL/NERN NM AND EXTREME WRN TX PANHANDLE. CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 141808Z - 142045Z TSTMS ARE DEVELOPING ACROSS PORTIONS NERN NM AND SHOULD INCREASE IN COVERAGE/INTENSITY THROUGH 20Z...WITH NET SWD MOTION ACROSS PORTIONS NERN AND E-CENTRAL NM. SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY MAY CLIP WRN PORTIONS HARTLEY/OLDHAM/DEAF SMITH COUNTIES IN TX PANHANDLE AS WELL. HAIL AND OCCASIONAL STRONG-SEVERE GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE. AREA WILL BE MONITORED FOR POSSIBLE WW. SEVERAL CB AND NUMEROUS TCU ARE EVIDENT FROM SERN UNION COUNTY NM WWD OVER PORTIONS RIO ARRIBA COUNTY...WHERE DIABATIC SFC HEATING OF HIGHER TERRAIN HAS QUICKLY REMOVED CINH. SFC ANALYSES INDICATE POSTFRONTAL FLOW VEERING WITH TIME TO MORE ELY COMPONENT...A TREND THAT SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH MID-LATE AFTERNOON. THIS WILL ENHANCE BOTH UPSLOPE LIFT AND STORM-RELATIVE INFLOW...AND ALSO ELONGATE 0-3 KM HODOGRAPHS. RESULTING BOUNDARY LAYER WIND PROFILES SUPPORT POTENTIAL FOR ROTATION IN STORMS RIGHTWARD-MOVING TOWARD S OR SSW...WITH 0-3 KM SRH UP TO ABOUT 250 J/KG. VERY STRONG DIRECTIONAL TURNING OF FLOW VECTORS WILL CONTINUE FROM SFC-MIDLEVELS...ENHANCING DEEP-LAYER BULK SHEAR ALSO. SFC TEMPS WARMING INTO 70S F AND DEW POINTS LOW-MID 40S F YIELD MLCAPES 500-1000 J/KG IN MODIFIED RUC SOUNDINGS OVER MUCH OF NERN NM. ..EDWARDS.. 05/14/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LUB...AMA...ABQ... 36070644 36300559 35950428 36040364 35960323 35540276 34570295 34420336 34450345 34450524 35030618 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Sun May 14 18:44:12 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Sun, 14 May 2006 14:44:12 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 141842 SWOMCD SPC MCD 141842 NCZ000-VAZ000-141945- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0866 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0142 PM CDT SUN MAY 14 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS CENTRAL/ERN NC. CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 350... VALID 141842Z - 141945Z MUCH OF NC PORTION WW IS BEING UPGRADED TO TORNADO WW 351...WHICH ALSO WILL INCLUDE ADDITIONAL TERRITORY EWD TOWARD COAST. VA/SC PORTIONS WILL REMAIN IN SVR TSTM WW 350. VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES ARE SLOWLY BECOMING MORE FAVORABLE FOR SUSTAINED SUPERCELLS AND TORNADO POTENTIAL OVER CENTRAL/ERN NC...PARTICULARLY INVOF DIFFERENTIAL HEATING BOUNDARY WHERE LOW LEVEL WINDS ARE BACKED AND HODOGRAPH SIZE IS MAXIMIZED. SFC MESOANALYSIS SHOWS THIS BOUNDARY FROM CENTRAL PORTION PAMLICO SOUND WNWWD TO NEAR DAN. PRONOUNCED PRESSURE FALL CENTER IS EVIDENT ALONG WRN PORTION OF THIS BOUNDARY SSE DAN....WHICH SHOULD HELP TO MAINTAIN FAVORABLE LOW LEVEL WIND PROFILES OVER REGION. MLCAPES ARE INCREASING TO OVER 1000 J/KG IN MORE STRONGLY HEATED AREAS OF ERN NC. ..EDWARDS.. 05/14/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...RAH...ILM...RNK...GSP... 36558054 36527590 35237558 34517749 34817970 34898078 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Sun May 14 19:24:25 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Sun, 14 May 2006 15:24:25 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 141922 SWOMCD SPC MCD 141922 GAZ000-ALZ000-142115- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0867 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0222 PM CDT SUN MAY 14 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...SRN AL/CNTRL GA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 141922Z - 142115Z TSTMS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ALONG CONVERGENCE BOUNDARY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. A MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIRMASS ALONG WITH MODERATE SPEED SHEAR WILL SUPPORT A THREAT FOR MAINLY LARGE HAIL. TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE WW IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. TSTMS APPEAR TO HAVE INITIATED ALONG AN APPARENT OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM EARLIER CONVECTION...GENERALLY IN AN AXIS BETWEEN MGM AND TOI ARCING NEWD TOWARDS MCN. AIR MASS HAS DESTABILIZED TO THE S OF THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY...ALTHOUGH HINDERED SOMEWHAT BY CONVECTIVE DEBRIS. TEMPERATURES AROUND 80 AND DEW POINTS AROUND 60 SUPPORT MLCAPES FROM 1000 TO 1500 J/KG PER MODIFIED RUC SOUNDINGS. EOX AND JGX VAD WIND PROFILERS INDICATE UNIDIRECTIONAL WLY FLOW ACROSS MUCH OF SRN AL INTO CNTRL GA...WITH ADEQUATE SPEED SHEAR AROUND 35 TO 45 KTS. AS STORMS PROPAGATE EWD INTO THE MORE UNSTABLE AIR MASS S OF THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY...POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. ..GRAMS.. 05/14/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...FFC...TAE...BMX...MOB... 31788740 32248748 32248612 32668496 33418332 33148284 32568261 31578406 31418540 31558673 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Sun May 14 20:09:11 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Sun, 14 May 2006 16:09:11 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 142007 SWOMCD SPC MCD 142007 TXZ000-142100- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0868 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0307 PM CDT SUN MAY 14 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS CENTRAL...S-CENTRAL AND SE TX. CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 349... VALID 142007Z - 142100Z BAND OF STRONG-SEVERE TSTMS FROM HOU AREA WNWWD TO MCCULLOCH COUNTIES SHOULD CONTINUE TO MOVE SWD ACROSS REMAINDER WW AREA IN TX. WW MAY BE REPLACED BEFORE 21Z TO INCLUDE MORE AREAS JUST W AND/OR S OF PRESENT WW BETWEEN JCT/DRT AREAS AND MIDDLE TX COAST...AND ALSO TO EXCLUDE LA...WHERE AIR MASS HAS BEEN SUBSTANTIALLY STABILIZED BY EARLIER MCS. SFC MESOANALYSIS...RUC SOUNDINGS AND VIS IMAGERY INDICATE BOUNDARY LAYER CONTINUES TO WARM AND DESTABILIZE ACROSS PRECONVECTIVE AIR MASS OVER REGION. STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES...AND SFC DEW POINTS REMAINING IN UPPER 60S-LOW 70S F...CONTRIBUTE TO MLCAPES 3000-4000 J/KG. STRONG CAPPING STILL IS EVIDENT FROM SAT AREA SWD...LIMITING DEVELOPMENT IN WARM SECTOR AWAY FROM OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES. HOWEVER...REINFORCEMENT OF THOSE BOUNDARIES BY COLD POOLS MAY OVERCOME CINH AND ALLOW CONVECTION EVENTUALLY TO CONTINUE OR PROPAGATE THROUGH THAT REGION. OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM LA MCS IS EVIDENT FROM ABOUT 30 SSE GLS NWWD ACROSS FT BEND COUNTY AND INTO CLUSTER OF CONVECTION OVER MONTGOMERY COUNTY. ACTIVITY HAS DEVELOPED ON BOTH SIDES OF THIS BOUNDARY FROM COLORADO COUNTY ESEWD TO MAINLAND GALVESTON COUNTY...IN ADDITION TO POTENTIALLY SVR CLUSTER OF TSTMS PROPAGATING SSEWD INTO NRN HARRIS COUNTY. MEANWHILE ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED INVOF BLENDED OUTFLOW/FRONTAL ZONE MOVING SWD THROUGH SJT-JCT-AUS CORRIDOR. ..EDWARDS.. 05/14/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...HGX...FWD...CRP...EWX...SJT... 31169961 31249824 30589581 30129482 29369453 28909512 28629757 28789972 29650082 30400058 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Sun May 14 20:17:06 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Sun, 14 May 2006 16:17:06 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 141922 SWOMCD SPC MCD 141922 GAZ000-ALZ000-142115- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0867 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0222 PM CDT SUN MAY 14 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...SRN AL/CNTRL GA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 141922Z - 142115Z TSTMS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ALONG CONVERGENCE BOUNDARY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. A MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIRMASS ALONG WITH MODERATE SPEED SHEAR WILL SUPPORT A THREAT FOR MAINLY LARGE HAIL. TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE WW IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. TSTMS APPEAR TO HAVE INITIATED ALONG AN APPARENT OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM EARLIER CONVECTION...GENERALLY IN AN AXIS BETWEEN MGM AND TOI ARCING NEWD TOWARDS MCN. AIR MASS HAS DESTABILIZED TO THE S OF THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY...ALTHOUGH HINDERED SOMEWHAT BY CONVECTIVE DEBRIS. TEMPERATURES AROUND 80 AND DEW POINTS AROUND 60 SUPPORT MLCAPES FROM 1000 TO 1500 J/KG PER MODIFIED RUC SOUNDINGS. EOX AND JGX VAD WIND PROFILERS INDICATE UNIDIRECTIONAL WLY FLOW ACROSS MUCH OF SRN AL INTO CNTRL GA...WITH ADEQUATE SPEED SHEAR AROUND 35 TO 45 KTS. AS STORMS PROPAGATE EWD INTO THE MORE UNSTABLE AIR MASS S OF THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY...POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. ..GRAMS.. 05/14/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...FFC...TAE...BMX...MOB... 31788740 32248748 32248612 32668496 33418332 33148284 32568261 31578406 31418540 31558673  From mcd at goshenarc.org Sun May 14 20:38:24 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Sun, 14 May 2006 16:38:24 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 142036 SWOMCD SPC MCD 142035 NCZ000-SCZ000-142130- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0869 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0335 PM CDT SUN MAY 14 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS CENTRAL/ERN NC. CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 351... VALID 142035Z - 142130Z SEVERE TSTMS -- INCLUDING A FEW SUPERCELLS -- CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS MUCH OF WW AREA. A FEW REPORTS OF WIND DAMAGE AND NUMEROUS REPORTS OF 1-2 INCH DIAMETER HAIL HAVE BEEN RECEIVED WITHIN PAST 1-2 HOURS. MAIN BAND OF CONVECTION HAS MOVED THROUGH MOST UNSTABLE AIR MASS OVER ERN NC...AND IS SHIFTING ENEWD ACROSS N-CENTRAL/NERN NC INTO SOMEWHAT LOWER BOUNDARY LAYER THETAE. HOWEVER...MODIFIED RUC SOUNDINGS INDICATE AROUND 500-800 J/KG MLCAPE REMAINS ACROSS MUCH OF REGION. VERTICAL SHEAR SHOULD REMAIN FAVORABLE BENEATH NRN PORTION OF MIDLEVEL SPEED MAX ACROSS WW AREA...WITH AROUND 50 KT EFFECTIVE SHEAR. VWP ACROSS REGION SHOW SLGT VEERING WITH HEIGHT IN LOWEST 3 KM...SUFFICIENT TO KEEP SRH IN THAT LAYER AROUND 300 J/KG FOR RIGHTWARD-DEVIANT...EWD MOVING STORMS. ..EDWARDS.. 05/14/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...RAH...ILM...CAE... 34597709 34637877 34767992 35428028 36407886 36477583 35257552 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Sun May 14 20:46:48 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Sun, 14 May 2006 16:46:48 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 142007 SWOMCD SPC MCD 142007 TXZ000-142100- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0868 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0307 PM CDT SUN MAY 14 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS CENTRAL...S-CENTRAL AND SE TX. CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 349... VALID 142007Z - 142100Z BAND OF STRONG-SEVERE TSTMS FROM HOU AREA WNWWD TO MCCULLOCH COUNTIES SHOULD CONTINUE TO MOVE SWD ACROSS REMAINDER WW AREA IN TX. WW MAY BE REPLACED BEFORE 21Z TO INCLUDE MORE AREAS JUST W AND/OR S OF PRESENT WW BETWEEN JCT/DRT AREAS AND MIDDLE TX COAST...AND ALSO TO EXCLUDE LA...WHERE AIR MASS HAS BEEN SUBSTANTIALLY STABILIZED BY EARLIER MCS. SFC MESOANALYSIS...RUC SOUNDINGS AND VIS IMAGERY INDICATE BOUNDARY LAYER CONTINUES TO WARM AND DESTABILIZE ACROSS PRECONVECTIVE AIR MASS OVER REGION. STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES...AND SFC DEW POINTS REMAINING IN UPPER 60S-LOW 70S F...CONTRIBUTE TO MLCAPES 3000-4000 J/KG. STRONG CAPPING STILL IS EVIDENT FROM SAT AREA SWD...LIMITING DEVELOPMENT IN WARM SECTOR AWAY FROM OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES. HOWEVER...REINFORCEMENT OF THOSE BOUNDARIES BY COLD POOLS MAY OVERCOME CINH AND ALLOW CONVECTION EVENTUALLY TO CONTINUE OR PROPAGATE THROUGH THAT REGION. OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM LA MCS IS EVIDENT FROM ABOUT 30 SSE GLS NWWD ACROSS FT BEND COUNTY AND INTO CLUSTER OF CONVECTION OVER MONTGOMERY COUNTY. ACTIVITY HAS DEVELOPED ON BOTH SIDES OF THIS BOUNDARY FROM COLORADO COUNTY ESEWD TO MAINLAND GALVESTON COUNTY...IN ADDITION TO POTENTIALLY SVR CLUSTER OF TSTMS PROPAGATING SSEWD INTO NRN HARRIS COUNTY. MEANWHILE ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED INVOF BLENDED OUTFLOW/FRONTAL ZONE MOVING SWD THROUGH SJT-JCT-AUS CORRIDOR. ..EDWARDS.. 05/14/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...HGX...FWD...CRP...EWX...SJT... 31169961 31249824 30589581 30129482 29369453 28909512 28629757 28789972 29650082 30400058  From mcd at goshenarc.org Sun May 14 21:01:07 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Sun, 14 May 2006 17:01:07 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 142036 SWOMCD SPC MCD 142035 NCZ000-SCZ000-142130- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0869 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0335 PM CDT SUN MAY 14 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS CENTRAL/ERN NC. CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 351... VALID 142035Z - 142130Z SEVERE TSTMS -- INCLUDING A FEW SUPERCELLS -- CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS MUCH OF WW AREA. A FEW REPORTS OF WIND DAMAGE AND NUMEROUS REPORTS OF 1-2 INCH DIAMETER HAIL HAVE BEEN RECEIVED WITHIN PAST 1-2 HOURS. MAIN BAND OF CONVECTION HAS MOVED THROUGH MOST UNSTABLE AIR MASS OVER ERN NC...AND IS SHIFTING ENEWD ACROSS N-CENTRAL/NERN NC INTO SOMEWHAT LOWER BOUNDARY LAYER THETAE. HOWEVER...MODIFIED RUC SOUNDINGS INDICATE AROUND 500-800 J/KG MLCAPE REMAINS ACROSS MUCH OF REGION. VERTICAL SHEAR SHOULD REMAIN FAVORABLE BENEATH NRN PORTION OF MIDLEVEL SPEED MAX ACROSS WW AREA...WITH AROUND 50 KT EFFECTIVE SHEAR. VWP ACROSS REGION SHOW SLGT VEERING WITH HEIGHT IN LOWEST 3 KM...SUFFICIENT TO KEEP SRH IN THAT LAYER AROUND 300 J/KG FOR RIGHTWARD-DEVIANT...EWD MOVING STORMS. ..EDWARDS.. 05/14/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...RAH...ILM...CAE... 34597709 34637877 34767992 35428028 36407886 36477583 35257552  From mcd at goshenarc.org Sun May 14 21:04:19 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Sun, 14 May 2006 17:04:19 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 142059 SWOMCD SPC MCD 142058 VAZ000-NCZ000-SCZ000-GAZ000-142230- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0870 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0358 PM CDT SUN MAY 14 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS CENTRAL/SRN VA...WRN NC...SC...ERN GA. CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 350...352... VALID 142058Z - 142230Z ISOLATED/MRGL SVR MAY STILL OCCUR OVER PORTIONS CENTRAL VA...AS CONVECTION NOW BETWEEN LYH-PTB MOVES NEWD INTO POCKET OF RELATIVELY UNSTABLE AIR THAT WAS HEATED EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON...AND WHICH HAS BEEN RELATIVELY UNDISTURBED BY OTHER CONVECTION. WRN NC PORTION OF WW 350 -- WHICH WAS NOT CONVERTED TO TORNADO WW 351 -- HAS STABILIZED SUBSTANTIALLY FROM EARLIER ACTIVITY...REDUCING SEVERE POTENTIAL. STRONGEST VERTICAL SHEAR AND GREATEST BUOYANCY REMAINS OVER SRN LOBE OF WW 350 AND ADJACENT WW 352. THIS AREA IS DIRECTLY BENEATH MIDLEVEL SPEED MAX PIVOTING EWD AROUND PERIPHERY OF GREAT LAKES CYCLONE...RESULTING IN 50-60 KT OF 0-6 KM SHEAR IN SUPPORT OF SUPERCELL POTENTIAL. HAIL UP TO 1.5 INCHES HAS BEEN REPORTED WITHIN PAST HOUR FROM ACTIVITY IN CHARLESTON COUNTY. LIKELY SUPERCELL STRUCTURES SUPPORT RISK OF EVEN LARGER HAIL FROM ACTIVITY OVER NERN SC AND SERN NC...WHERE AIR MASS HAS BEEN RELATIVELY UNDISTURBED BY PRIOR CONVECTION. ADDITIONAL DESTABILIZATION IS OCCURRING ALONG WRN PORTION OF CLOUD/PRECIP AREA ASSOCIATED WITH CHS COUNTY STORM...ACROSS GA/SC BORDER REGION. ..EDWARDS.. 05/14/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...LWX...RAH...ILM...RNK...CHS...CAE...GSP...JAX...FFC... 34817847 34517824 34727808 34707773 34227735 33877799 33737884 33157921 32368047 31308122 31948223 33988260 34048196 35548150 36128150 36958016 37318036 38177966 38687886 37897653 37177645 36587688 36547915 36237919 36178006 35768043 34838032 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Sun May 14 23:39:23 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Sun, 14 May 2006 19:39:23 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 142337 SWOMCD SPC MCD 142337 TXZ000-150100- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0871 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0637 PM CDT SUN MAY 14 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...S-CNTRL TX CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 353... VALID 142337Z - 150100Z CLUSTERS OF STRONG TO SEVERE TSTMS WILL CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE SWD ACROSS SRN HALF OF WW 353. A VERY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH STRONG DIRECTIONAL SHEAR WILL CONTINUE THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. AREA TO THE S OF WW 353 IS BEING MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE WW IN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO. A VERY WARM AND MOIST AIR MASS REMAINS IN PLACE AHEAD OF SWD MOVING CLUSTERS OF SEVERE TSTMS IN AN AXIS FROM VAL VERDE TO MATAGORDA COUNTIES. ASSOCIATED COLD POOL WILL LIKELY INITIATE ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE SRN PERIPHERY OF WW 353...ESPECIALLY TOWARDS THE RIO GRANDE RIVER VALLEY NEAR LRD. MLCAPES OF 3000 TO 4000 J/KG ALONG WITH EFFECTIVE SHEAR OF 50 TO 60 KTS WILL SUPPORT CONTINUED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. STEEP LAPSE RATES WILL LIKELY LEAD TO LARGE HAIL BEING THE MAIN THREAT. IN ADDITION...HIGH DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS ALONG THE RIO GRANDE NEAR LRD WILL SUPPORT AN ENHANCED THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS IN THIS AREA. IF STORMS CAN MAINTAIN SFC-BASED CHARACTER IN MODIFIED MARINE LAYER AIR MASS NEAR THE COASTAL BEND...AN ISOLATED THREAT FOR A TORNADO WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH O-1 KM SRH OF 100 TO 150 M2/S2 /PER CRP VAD PROFILER/. ..GRAMS.. 05/14/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...HGX...CRP...EWX...BRO... 29810171 30120003 29689729 29069520 27719710 26699776 26249873 27419946 28830051 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Mon May 15 00:09:45 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Sun, 14 May 2006 20:09:45 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 150007 SWOMCD SPC MCD 150007 NCZ000-150130- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0872 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0707 PM CDT SUN MAY 14 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF CNTRL THROUGH ERN NC CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 351... VALID 150007Z - 150130Z THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL...ISOLATED TORNADOES AND DAMAGING WIND IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST ANOTHER FEW HOURS ACROSS PARTS OF CNTRL THROUGH ERN NC. THIS EVENING A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM WRN SC NEWD THROUGH CNTRL NC WHERE IT TRANSITIONS TO A WARM FRONT FROM JUST S OF RALEIGH EWD TO S OF ELIZABETH CITY. DESPITE SOME STABILIZATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE COOLING BOUNDARY LAYER...COLD MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES OF -16 TO -17C WILL MAINTAIN SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY AND LAPSE RATES FOR THE THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER TO PERSIST A WHILE LONGER. STORMS HAVE INCREASED ALONG THE SURFACE FRONT ACROSS CNTRL THROUGH NERN NC. FORCING FOR ASCENT WITHIN EXIT REGION OF MID LEVEL JET ROTATING THROUGH BASE OF UPPER TROUGH WILL MAINTAIN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR STORMS TO CONTINUE DEVELOPING NEAR THIS BOUNDARY NEXT FEW HOURS. A SLY LOW LEVEL JET OVER ERN NC IS COUPLED WITH EXIT REGION OF THE UPPER JET...CONTRIBUTING TO FAVORABLE LOW LEVEL AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR PROFILES FOR SUPERCELLS WITH LOW LEVEL MESOCYCLONES. TORNADO THREAT MAY BE LOCALLY ENHANCED BY THE E-W ORIENTED FRONT WHERE THE LOW LEVEL FLOW IS LOCALLY BACKED TO ELY. ..DIAL.. 05/15/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...RAH... 35257712 35407944 35697954 36037815 36167716 35937665 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Mon May 15 00:14:15 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Sun, 14 May 2006 20:14:15 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 150012 SWOMCD SPC MCD 150012 TXZ000-NMZ000-150145- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0873 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0712 PM CDT SUN MAY 14 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...SERN NM/FAR W TX CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 150012Z - 150145Z SEVERE TSTM THREAT IS INCREASING WITH SCATTERED TSTM DEVELOPMENT ALREADY OCCURRING ALONG THE HIGH TERRAIN OF CNTRL NM. AN ADDITIONAL TSTM IS DEVELOPING IN VICINITY OF TERRELL COUNTY IN TX. A WEAK TO MODERATELY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH STRONG DIRECTIONAL WIND SHEAR WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR AN ORGANIZED SEVERE THREAT. AREA IS BEING MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE WW IN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO. STRONG TO POTENTIALLY SEVERE TSTMS IN LINCOLN AND OTERO COUNTIES IN NM SHOULD BEGIN TO PROPAGATE SSE INTO A MORE UNSTABLE AIR MASS ACROSS THE SERN PLAINS OF NM. ALTHOUGH THE ENVIRONMENT IS ONLY WEAKLY UNSTABLE WITH MLCAPES AROUND 1000 J/KG...EFFECTIVE SHEAR OF 40 TO 50 KTS WILL BE SUFFICIENT TO PROMOTE STORM ORGANIZATION. SUBSTANTIAL DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS OF 30 TO 40 DEGREES WILL PROVIDE A VERY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DAMAGING WINDS. FURTHER SE IN FAR W TX...THE ENVIRONMENT REMAINS CAPPED...BUT CU DEVELOPMENT HAS INCREASED IN THE PAST HOUR. A NARROW AXIS OF MID 50 DEW POINTS FROM FST TO 6R6 MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR TSTM DEVELOPMENT IN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO. IF TSTMS DO DEVELOP...A MODERATELY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH MLCAPES OF 1500 TO 2000 J/KG LIKELY EXISTS /PER MODIFIED 00Z DRT SOUNDING/. DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL ARE THE PRIMARY THREATS. ..GRAMS.. 05/15/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MAF...ABQ...EPZ... 31220300 30170191 29910240 29540332 29780409 30000454 30650490 32070622 33240679 34430587 34240517 32350387 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Mon May 15 01:36:19 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Sun, 14 May 2006 21:36:19 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 150134 SWOMCD SPC MCD 150134 NCZ000-SCZ000-GAZ000-150230- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0874 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0834 PM CDT SUN MAY 14 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN NC THROUGH COASTAL SC CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 351...355... VALID 150134Z - 150230Z SEVERE THREAT WILL HAVE ENDED ACROSS MUCH OF 355 BY 02Z. WW MAY BE LOCALLY EXTENDED FOR SOME COASTAL COUNTIES FOR AN HOUR OR SO IF NECESSARY. SEVERE THREAT IN TORNADO WATCH 351 ALSO APPEARS TO BE ON THE DECLINE. HOWEVER...SOME SEVERE THREAT MAY PERSIST ACROSS PARTS OF ERN NC AN HOUR OR TWO BEYOND 02Z AND PORTIONS OF THIS WW MAY ALSO NEED TO BE LOCALLY EXTENDED. THIS EVENING A FEW SEVERE STORMS INCLUDING SUPERCELLS CONTINUE EWD THROUGH COASTAL SC. MUCH OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL HAVE MOVED OFFSHORE SHORTLY AFTER 02Z. FARTHER N...A LINE OF STORMS CONTINUES TRAINING ON QUASISTATIONARY FRONT WITH STRONGEST STORMS FROM JOHNSTON COUNTY NEWD TO TYRRELL COUNTY. ORGANIZED STORMS STRUCTURES INCLUDING BOW ECHOES AND AN ISOLATED SUPERCELL OR TWO CONTINUE TO BE OBSERVED WITHIN THE LINE. OVERALL INTENSITIES HAVE DECREASED DURING THE PAST HOUR AND STORMS APPEAR TO BE TRANSITIONING TO OUTFLOW DOMINANT. THE STABILIZING BOUNDARY LAYER AND INCREASINGLY MARGINAL INSTABILITY SHOULD CONTRIBUTE TO FURTHER WEAKENING WITH TIME. HOWEVER...STORMS ARE STILL EMBEDDED WITHIN STRONG SHEAR PROFILES AND SOME SEVERE THREAT MAY PERSIST WITH THIS ACTIVITY AT LEAST AN HOUR OR TWO BEYOND WW 351 EXPIRATION TIME OF 02Z. ..DIAL.. 05/15/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...RAH...ILM...CHS... 34307732 32108118 32968067 33987923 35157855 35857848 35927725 35977593 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Mon May 15 01:56:07 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Sun, 14 May 2006 21:56:07 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 150154 SWOMCD SPC MCD 150154 TXZ000-150330- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0875 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0854 PM CDT SUN MAY 14 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTH TX CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 353...356... VALID 150154Z - 150330Z CONVECTIVE LINE AND SVR THREAT WILL HAVE MOVED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF WW 353 BY 0230Z. THUS WW 353 WILL LIKELY BE CANCELLED EARLY...BEFORE 04Z EXPIRATION TIME. SVR THREAT WILL BE GREATEST OVER THE SWRN HALF OF WW 356 FOR THE NEXT FEW HRS. LATEST RADAR SHOWS REMNANT CONVECTIVE LINE PUSHING SWD AROUND 20 KTS ACROSS SOUTH TX AND THE SRN EDGE OF WW 353. BEHIND THIS ACTIVITY STRONG PRESSURE RISES AND DIMINISHING INSTABILITY SUGGEST THAT NO ADDITIONAL SVR THREAT WILL EXIST. GIVEN THE EXTRAPOLATION OF THE LINE MOVEMENT...THE LAST OF THE MARGINAL SVR THREAT SHOULD BE OUT OF WW 353 BY 0230Z. FURTHER SOUTH...CONVECTIVE CLUSTER ALONG THE LOWER RIO GRANDE RIVER VALLEY WILL POSE THE MAIN SVR THREAT OVER WW 356 IN THE NEXT 1-2 HRS. STRONG MOIST ELY FLOW /PER SFC AND VWP DATA/ WAS OCCURRING NORTH OF AN OUTFLOW BNDRY EXTENDING FROM KENEDY TO ZAPATA COUNTIES. THE SOMEWHAT COOLER AIR NORTH OF THIS BNDRY /COMBINED WITH WEAK AMBIENT MID LEVEL WINDS/ WILL AID IN THE CONVECTIVE CLUSTER MVMNT GENERALLY SEWD OR SSEWD OVER THE NEXT FEW HRS ALONG THE LOWER RIO GRANDE RIVER VALLEY. ANY STORMS WITH THIS CLUSTER THAT INTERACT WITH THE BNDRY MAY POSE A BRIEF TORNADO THREAT. PER RADAR IMAGERY A SECONDARY LINE OF CONVECTION WILL MOVE SWD INTO THE LOWER TX COAST OVER THE NEXT FEW HRS BEHIND THE MAIN OUTFLOW BNDRY. THE PROBABILITY OF SVR WEATHER WITH THIS LINE SHOULD REMAIN RELATIVELY LOW...BUT MAY INCREASE IF IT CAN SUSTAIN ITSELF AND REACH THE MORE UNSTABLE AIR SOUTH OF THE MAIN OUTFLOW BNDRY ACROSS DEEP SOUTH TX AFTER 03Z. ..CROSBIE.. 05/15/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...CRP...EWX...BRO... 28049692 28639924 29020075 28790078 27830003 26670000 26019771 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Mon May 15 02:25:12 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Sun, 14 May 2006 22:25:12 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 150223 SWOMCD SPC MCD 150223 TXZ000-NMZ000-150430- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0876 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0923 PM CDT SUN MAY 14 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...SCENTRAL/SERN NM AND SWRN TX CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 357... VALID 150223Z - 150430Z ISOLATED SVR STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SSEWD OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SCENTRAL AND SERN NM /NWRN PORTION OF WW 357/ AND INTO FAR WRN TX /INCLUDING THE ELP AREA/ IN THE NEXT 1-2 HRS. ADDITIONAL SVR STORMS MAY DEVELOP OVER THE DAVIS MTNS AND MOVE SEWD INTO THE BIG BEND REGION /SERN PORTION OF WW 357/...AS MOIST UPSLOPE FLOW INCREASES. LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS DEWPTS CONTINUE TO RISE OVER MUCH OF WW 357 AS LOW LEVEL ENELY FLOW MOISTURE ADVECTION OCCURS. MODERATE INSTABILITY AXIS REMAINS IN PLACE FROM THE ELP AREA SEWD INTO THE DAVIS MTNS/BIG BEND REGION...WITH MUCAPES FROM 1000-2000 J/KG. THE GREATEST PRESSURE RISES DUE TO CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW FROM STORMS OVER THE MIDDLE RIO GRANDE RIVER VALLEY HAVE YET TO REACH THE DAVIS MTNS. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT ADDITIONAL SVR CONVECTION MAY DEVELOP AS UPSLOPE FLOW INCREASES WITHIN THE NEXT HR OR SO. OTHERWISE...THE MAIN SVR THREAT SHOULD REMAIN OVER NWRN HALF OF WW 357 FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF HRS WHERE CONVECTION MOVES SSEWD OUT OF THE SACRAMENTO AND GUADALUPE MTNS OF SCENTRAL/SERN NM INTO LOWER ELEVATIONS OF FAR WRN TX. A DEEPLY MIXED BNDRY LAYER WILL SUPPORT A DMGG WIND THREAT...BUT ISOLATED LARGE HAIL WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE DUE TO FAVORABLY STRONG CLOUD LAYER SHEAR AND WET-BULB COOLING EFFECTS. ..CROSBIE.. 05/15/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...EWX...SJT...MAF...ABQ...EPZ... 33380590 32110694 28980252 30260150 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Mon May 15 07:18:08 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Mon, 15 May 2006 03:18:08 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 150716 SWOMCD SPC MCD 150715 GAZ000-FLZ000-150915- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0877 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0215 AM CDT MON MAY 15 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...NRN FLORIDA...SRN GEORGIA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 150715Z - 150915Z A WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED...BUT TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF AN INCREASING SEVERE THREAT. PRE-FRONTAL LOW-LEVEL CONFLUENCE NEAR 25-30 KT WEST SOUTHWESTERLY LOW-LEVEL JET ACROSS NORTHERN FLORIDA/SOUTHERN GEORGIA APPEARS TO BE FOCUS FOR ONGOING CONVECTIVE BAND. ACTIVITY IS DEVELOPING IN MOIST ENVIRONMENT WITH MIXED LAYER AND MOST UNSTABLE CAPE ON THE ORDER OF 1000-2000 J/KG...AND MODERATELY STRONG UNIDIRECTIONAL SHEAR APPEARS TO CONTRIBUTING TO EMBEDDED ISOLATED STRONGER CELLS. SURFACE BASED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT APPEARS CONFINED TO WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE COASTAL AREAS...WITH ACTIVITY LIKELY ELEVATED ABOVE AT LEAST A SHALLOW SURFACE INVERSION ACROSS INLAND AREAS OF NORTHERN FLORIDA/ SOUTHERN FLORIDA. LITTLE CHANGE IS ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT AS CONVECTIVE BAND SHIFTS ONLY VERY SLOWLY EASTWARD. INCREASING MID/UPPER FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH NEXT IMPULSE ROTATING AROUND SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF OHIO VALLEY CLOSED MAY PROVIDE SOME RISK FOR GROWING CLUSTER OF STORMS EAST OF TALLAHASSEE TOWARD 12Z...BUT THIS POTENTIAL SEEMS LOW/UNCERTAIN AT THE PRESENT TIME. HOWEVER ...ISOLATED STRONGER CELLS COULD STILL BRIEFLY PRODUCE MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL...PERHAPS SOME GUSTY WINDS THROUGH DAYBREAK. ..KERR.. 05/15/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...CHS...JAX...TAE...MOB... 30408698 30518587 31078440 31878229 31768155 31108139 30488161 29978270 29518442 29498511 29428629 29688750 29988761 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Mon May 15 17:05:47 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Mon, 15 May 2006 13:05:47 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 151702 SWOMCD SPC MCD 151702 FLZ000-GAZ000-151830- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0878 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1202 PM CDT MON MAY 15 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...NRN FL CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 151702Z - 151830Z VSBL SATL CONTINUES TO SHOW A GROWING CUMULUS FIELD ACROSS NRN FL WITH TSTMS INITIATING ALONG AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY NEAR THE GA/FL BORDER AREA. AIR MASS TO THE SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY HAS BECOME VERY UNSTABLE OWING TO STRONG HEATING AND MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AROUND 7 DEGREES C PER KM. TSTMS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY AS TAIL-END OF A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. 0-6KM SHEAR OF 45-50 KTS AND MAGNITUDE OF INSTABILITY SUGGEST THAT LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY SEVERE RISKS. ..RACY.. 05/15/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MLB...TBW...JAX...TAE... 29868358 30448319 30658155 29148097 28678289  From mcd at goshenarc.org Mon May 15 17:46:05 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Mon, 15 May 2006 13:46:05 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 151744 SWOMCD SPC MCD 151744 NCZ000-VAZ000-151915- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0879 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1244 PM CDT MON MAY 15 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN NC AND EXTREME SERN VA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 151744Z - 151915Z TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAINS OF NC AND SERN VA THROUGH MID-AFTN. A FEW STORMS MAY PRODUCE DAMAGING WINDS...HAIL AND PERHAPS A TORNADO. A WW MAY BE REQUIRED THIS AFTN FOR PARTS OF ERN NC. RECENT MESOANALYSIS SHOWS THAT PRESSURE FALLS HAVE BECOME CONCENTRATED ACROSS ERN NC...SUPPORTING THE RUC TRENDS OF TRACKING THE SFC LOW FROM OVER UPSTATE SC INTO ERN NC BY LATE AFTN. RESULTANT INCREASE IN SFC CONVERGENCE OVER THE COASTAL PLAINS WILL LIKELY CONTRIBUTE TO TSTM INITIATION SHORTLY. AIR MASS IS NOT TERRIBLY UNSTABLE OWING TO MORNING CLOUD COVER...BUT AS AN UPSTREAM MID-LEVEL SPEED MAX TRANSLATES NEWD...ENVIRONMENT WILL SUPPORT DEEP MOIST CONVECTION. VERTICAL SHEAR IS MORE THAN SUFFICIENT FOR ORGANIZED STORMS. ACTIVITY WILL PROBABLY DEVELOP INTO SHORT LINE SEGMENTS WITH EMBEDDED BRIEF SUPERCELL STRUCTURES AND MOVE ENEWD INTO SERN VA AND THE OUTER BANKS OF NC BY EVENING. DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREAT...BUT SOUNDINGS SUGGEST SUFFICIENT 0-1KM SHEAR /AROUND 150-170 M2/S2/ FOR THE THREAT FOR TORNADOES. ..RACY.. 05/15/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...RAH...ILM... 34677883 35727854 36787769 37037646 36057551 35027558 33957668 33957821 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Mon May 15 18:15:38 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Mon, 15 May 2006 14:15:38 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 151813 SWOMCD SPC MCD 151813 FLZ000-151945- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0880 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0113 PM CDT MON MAY 15 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...SERN FL CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 151813Z - 151945Z TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO DEVELOP THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS ALONG THE SERN COAST OF FL. A MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS ALONG WITH SUFFICIENT WIND SHEAR WILL SUPPORT SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. GPS PRECIPITABLE WATER PRODUCT HAS SHOWN A LARGE MOISTURE FLUX INCREASE ACROSS SRN FL OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. TSTMS HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG SEA BREEZE CONVERGENCE BOUNDARY OVER THE PAST HOUR. MODIFIED RUC SOUNDINGS SHOW AN UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH MLCAPES OF 2000 TO 2500 J/KG. THIS COMBINED WITH EFFECTIVE SHEAR OF AROUND 40 KTS WILL BE SUFFICIENT TO ALLOW SUPERCELLS TO DEVELOP THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. STEEP LOW AND MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL SUPPORT A LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND THREAT. ALTHOUGH LOW-LEVEL SHEAR IS LACKING IN MIAMI VAD PROFILER...LOCALIZED INTERACTIONS BETWEEN STORMS AND SEA BREEZE CONVERGENCE BOUNDARY MAY PROVIDE AN ISOLATED THREAT FOR TORNADOES. ..GRAMS.. 05/15/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MFL...MLB... 25698085 26368101 26958093 27278028 26957998 26197995 25458016 25318078 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Mon May 15 23:20:00 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Mon, 15 May 2006 19:20:00 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 152318 SWOMCD SPC MCD 152318 NCZ000-SCZ000-160045- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0882 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0618 PM CDT MON MAY 15 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN SC THROUGH ERN NC CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 359... VALID 152318Z - 160045Z THE THREAT FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND AND LARGE HAIL IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST ANOTHER 2-3 HOURS...FOLLOWED BY A GRADUAL DECREASE IN INTENSITY. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE DEVELOPING IN VICINITY OF COLD FRONT ACROSS THE ERN CAROLINAS NEXT FEW HOURS WITHIN ZONE OF ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH NEWD ADVANCING UPPER JET. STRONG UNIDIRECTIONAL DEEP LAYER VERTICAL SHEAR OF 50-60 KT ENHANCED BY THE MID LEVEL JET WILL SUPPORT UPDRAFT ROTATION WITHIN THE STRONGER STORMS. COLD MID LEVEL THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES OF -16C TO -17C AND POTENTIAL FOR UPDRAFT ROTATION MAY ENHANCE THE THREAT FOR HAIL WITHIN THE STRONGER STORMS. HOWEVER...INSTABILITY WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY MARGINAL AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER BEGINS TO COOL...AND A SLOW DECREASE IN OVERALL INTENSITIES IS EXPECTED AFTER ANOTHER COUPLE HOURS. ..DIAL.. 05/15/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...RAH...ILM... 33507952 34197963 35897729 36137556 35367545 33797866 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Tue May 16 03:00:18 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Mon, 15 May 2006 23:00:18 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 160257 SWOMCD SPC MCD 160257 FLZ000-160500- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0883 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0957 PM CDT MON MAY 15 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...S CNTRL THROUGH S FL CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 160257Z - 160500Z THUNDERSTORMS WILL SPREAD INLAND INTO THE S CNTRL AND S FL PENINSULA NEXT FEW HOURS. THE STRONGER STORMS COULD PRODUCE ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND AND HAIL. CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE WW. LONG LIVED MCS OVER THE ERN GULF ABOUT 35 MILES OFFSHORE OF THE SRN FL PENINSULA CONTINUES EWD AT AROUND 30-35 KT. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD BEGIN TO MOVE INLAND NEAR 04Z. AT THE SURFACE A PRE-EXISTING BOUNDARY EXTENDS FROM NEAR PALM BEACH SWWD THROUGH THE EVERGLADES. THIS BOUNDARY HAS BEEN PARTIALLY REINFORCED BY CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW FROM PREVIOUS STORMS. SE OF THIS BOUNDARY...LOW LEVEL SHEAR IS ENHANCED BY SELY FLOW NEAR THE SURFACE VEERING TO SSWLY AROUND 1 KM. W OF THE BOUNDARY LOW LEVEL SHEAR IS MORE LIMITED...BUT DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS SUFFICIENT FOR ORGANIZED STORM STRUCTURES INCLUDING SUPERCELLS. THE THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT IS CHARACTERIZED BY MODERATE INSTABILITY WITH MLCAPE ON THE ORDER OF 1500 TO 2000 J/KG AND MODERATELY STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. CURRENT THINKING IS THAT THE PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND AND HAIL. HOWEVER...THERE IS SOME CONCERN FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF AN ISOLATED TORNADO OR TWO GIVEN THE BACKED LOW LEVEL FLOW SE OF THE SURFACE BOUNDARY ACROSS DEEP S FL. ..DIAL.. 05/16/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MFL...MLB...EYW...TBW... 25258014 24768123 26658234 27368090 26977999  From mcd at goshenarc.org Tue May 16 08:44:37 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Tue, 16 May 2006 04:44:37 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 160842 SWOMCD SPC MCD 160842 FLZ000-161015- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0884 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0342 AM CDT TUE MAY 16 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...SRN FL CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 360... VALID 160842Z - 161015Z STRONGER CONVECTION IS SHIFTING EWD/OFFSHORE OVER SRN FL. RADAR IMAGERY REVEALS A GENERAL WEAKENING TREND IN ONGOING CONVECTION...WITH STRONGEST STORMS -- AND ASSOCIATED OUTFLOW BOUNDARY -- MOVING OFF THE SERN COAST OF FL ATTM. AIRMASS HAS BEEN STABILIZED CONSIDERABLY IN THE WAKE OF THESE STORMS...AND THUS EXPECT ANY SEVERE THREAT WITH NEWLY-DEVELOPING CONVECTION OFF THE SWRN FL COAST TO REMAIN MINIMAL. ..GOSS.. 05/16/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MFL...EYW... 26887986 24998000 24498147 25398085 26038042 26768029 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Fri May 19 19:51:44 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Fri, 19 May 2006 15:51:44 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 191948 SWOMCD SPC MCD 191948 TNZ000-KYZ000-ILZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-192145- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0896 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0248 PM CDT FRI MAY 19 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...SERN MO...SRN IL...NERN AR...WRN KY/TN CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 191948Z - 192145Z SEVERE STORM POTENTIAL IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE ACROSS PARTS OF MO/AR/IL/KY AND TN OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. A WATCH MAY BE NEEDED OVER THE REGION THROUGH THIS EVENING. A BROAD NW-SE ORIENTED ZONE OF PERSISTENT LOW LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION ACROSS MO IS EXPECTED TO AID STORM INITIATION IN VERY UNSTABLE AIR MASS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. LATEST TRENDS SUGGEST THAT INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE AIR ORIGINATING WITHIN CAPPED WARM SECTOR WAS LIKELY FUELING ELEVATED CONVECTION DEVELOPING SEWD ACROSS THE LOWER OH VALLEY FROM IL TO WRN KY ATTM. WHILE THERE MAY BE AN INCREASE IN DEEP CONVECTION...AND SOME HAIL THREAT...ON THE COOL SIDE OF THE WARM FRONT...A GREATER CONCERN EXISTS ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR WHERE SURFACE-BASED STORMS MAY DEVELOP WITHIN A VERY UNSTABLE AIR MASS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. CONVECTIVE INHIBITION ACROSS SRN MO/SERN AR SHOULD BE EFFECTIVELY REDUCED AS TEMPERATURES CLIMB TOWARD 90F THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON. SURFACE-BASED TSTM DEVELOPMENT MAY BE AIDED BY APPROACH OF LOW-AMPLITUDE MID LEVEL IMPULSE NOW EVIDENT IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY ACROSS WRN IA. THIS FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO INDUCE SURFACE FRONTAL WAVE DEVELOPMENT WHICH IN TURN SHOULD RESULT IN STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL WSWLY FLOW AND LIFT ACROSS THE AREA. DESPITE RELATIVELY WELL-MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER AND HIGH LFC/CLOUD BASE...STRONG TURNING OF THE LOW LEVEL FLOW THROUGH THE STORM UPDRAFT LAYER...AND ROUGHLY 40KT EFFECTIVE SHEAR...WILL SUPPORT ROTATING STORMS. THIS ACTIVITY WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE LARGE HAIL AND HIGH WINDS AND SHOULD DEVELOP UPSCALE INTO THE EVENING AS SURFACE WAVE/LOW TRACKS SEWD ALONG THE WARM FRONT. A WATCH MAY BE ISSUED OVER THE AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS. ..CARBIN.. 05/19/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LMK...OHX...PAH...MEG...LSX...LZK...SGF... 36269237 36819279 37539312 38469280 38749237 38839163 38389018 38028886 37698785 36708699 36068698 35888757 35678963 35829125  From mcd at goshenarc.org Fri May 19 19:55:13 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Fri, 19 May 2006 15:55:13 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 191950 SWOMCD SPC MCD 191950 COR TNZ000-KYZ000-ILZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-192145- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0896 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0250 PM CDT FRI MAY 19 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...SERN MO...SRN IL...NERN AR...WRN KY/TN CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 191950Z - 192145Z CORRECTED SERN AR TO NERN AR IN 3RD PARAGRAPH SEVERE STORM POTENTIAL IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE ACROSS PARTS OF MO/AR/IL/KY AND TN OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. A WATCH MAY BE NEEDED OVER THE REGION THROUGH THIS EVENING. A BROAD NW-SE ORIENTED ZONE OF PERSISTENT LOW LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION ACROSS MO IS EXPECTED TO AID STORM INITIATION IN VERY UNSTABLE AIR MASS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. LATEST TRENDS SUGGEST THAT INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE AIR ORIGINATING WITHIN CAPPED WARM SECTOR WAS LIKELY FUELING ELEVATED CONVECTION DEVELOPING SEWD ACROSS THE LOWER OH VALLEY FROM IL TO WRN KY ATTM. WHILE THERE MAY BE AN INCREASE IN DEEP CONVECTION...AND SOME HAIL THREAT...ON THE COOL SIDE OF THE WARM FRONT...A GREATER CONCERN EXISTS ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR WHERE SURFACE-BASED STORMS MAY DEVELOP WITHIN A VERY UNSTABLE AIR MASS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. CONVECTIVE INHIBITION ACROSS SRN MO/NERN AR SHOULD BE EFFECTIVELY REDUCED AS TEMPERATURES CLIMB TOWARD 90F THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON. SURFACE-BASED TSTM DEVELOPMENT MAY BE AIDED BY APPROACH OF LOW-AMPLITUDE MID LEVEL IMPULSE NOW EVIDENT IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY ACROSS WRN IA. THIS FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO INDUCE SURFACE FRONTAL WAVE DEVELOPMENT WHICH IN TURN SHOULD RESULT IN STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL WSWLY FLOW AND LIFT ACROSS THE AREA. DESPITE RELATIVELY WELL-MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER AND HIGH LFC/CLOUD BASE...STRONG TURNING OF THE LOW LEVEL FLOW THROUGH THE STORM UPDRAFT LAYER...AND ROUGHLY 40KT EFFECTIVE SHEAR...WILL SUPPORT ROTATING STORMS. THIS ACTIVITY WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE LARGE HAIL AND HIGH WINDS AND SHOULD DEVELOP UPSCALE INTO THE EVENING AS SURFACE WAVE/LOW TRACKS SEWD ALONG THE WARM FRONT. A WATCH MAY BE ISSUED OVER THE AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS. ..CARBIN.. 05/19/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LMK...OHX...PAH...MEG...LSX...LZK...SGF... 36269237 36819279 37539312 38469280 38749237 38839163 38389018 38028886 37698785 36708699 36068698 35888757 35678963 35829125  From mcd at goshenarc.org Fri May 19 20:00:08 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Fri, 19 May 2006 16:00:08 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 191957 SWOMCD SPC MCD 191956 IDZ000-MTZ000-ORZ000-WAZ000-192200- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0897 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0256 PM CDT FRI MAY 19 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL/EASTERN ORE INTO EASTERN WA/WESTERN ID CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 191956Z - 192200Z POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED LARGE HAIL/STRONG WIND GUSTS IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON ACROSS CENTRAL/EASTERN ORE INTO EASTERN WA/WESTERN ID. WILL MONITOR FOR A POSSIBLE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY PORTRAYS UPPER TROUGH OFF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST CENTERED ALONG 135 W. AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE...HEIGHT FALLS ARE ONGOING ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AMIDST AN INCREASING BELT OF SOUTHWESTERLY MID LEVEL FLOW. 12Z/18Z OBSERVED BOISE RAOBS CAPTURE RATHER MOIST NATURE OF AIRMASS ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST...WITH PRECIP WATER VALUES RUNNING AS MUCH AS 200 PERCENT OF NORMAL. INCREASING FORCING FOR ASCENT COUPLED WITH AMPLE INSOLATION AND A WARM/MOIST AIRMASS IS EXPECTED TO LEAD TO INCREASING THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...MOST LIKELY FROM THE ORE CASCADES E/NE INTO EASTERN WA AND WESTERN ID. A RECENT INCREASE IS ALREADY EVIDENT ACROSS THE NORTHEAST ORE MOUNTAINS...AS WELL AS ALONG THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE ORE CASCADES NORTH OF REDMOND ORE. MODIFIED 18Z BOISE RAOB IN CONJUNCTION WITH RUC FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGESTS MODERATELY INSTABILITY OF 1500 J/KG MUCAPE OR GREATER WILL BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY FROM NORTHEAST ORE INTO ID. THIS DEGREE OF INSTABILITY COUPLED WITH AMPLE CLOUD BEARING SHEAR WOULD SUPPORT UPDRAFT ROTATION/SUPERCELL STRUCTURES...ENHANCING LARGE HAIL POTENTIAL. IN ADDITION TO LARGE HAIL...STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE. ..GUYER.. 05/19/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...PIH...MSO...BOI...OTX...PDT...MFR...PQR... 45772128 47401769 47471578 45981415 44031414 42911518 42291868 42322144 44102217  From mcd at goshenarc.org Fri May 19 23:06:45 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Fri, 19 May 2006 19:06:45 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 192303 SWOMCD SPC MCD 192303 IDZ000-MTZ000-ORZ000-WAZ000-200100- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0898 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0603 PM CDT FRI MAY 19 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...NORTH CENTRAL/NORTHEAST ORE AND SOUTHEAST WA INTO ID/FAR WESTERN MT CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 364... VALID 192303Z - 200100Z SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 364 CONTINUES UNTIL 04Z ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL/NORTHEAST ORE AND SOUTHEAST WA INTO NORTHWEST ID. LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL WILL CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY EVENING ACROSS WW 364...AND ADJACENT PORTIONS OF FAR WESTERN MT AND SOUTHERN ID. STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS CONTINUE LATE THIS AFTERNOON FROM NORTH CENTRAL ORE ALONG THE COLUMBIA RIVER INTO PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST/CENTRAL ID. THESE STORMS HAVE HAD A HISTORY OF SEVERAL SEVERE REPORTS ACROSS NORTHERN ORE...WHILE EXHIBITING SUPERCELL CHARACTERISTICS THIS AFTERNOON WITHIN AN ADEQUATELY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT /40 KNOTS OR GREATER 0-6 KM/. AIDED BY LOW LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW IN THE COLUMBIA VALLEY...ROTATING STORM CURRENTLY ACROSS NORTHERN MORROW COUNTY ORE AT 23Z APPEARS LIKELY TO REACH THE HERMISTON AREA BY 00Z...AND PERHAPS THE RICHLAND/PASCO/KENNEWICK WA AREAS THEREAFTER. PER 18Z OBSERVED RAOB FROM BOISE...A RATHER WARM/MOIST AIRMASS WITH MODERATE INSTABILITY -- 1500 J/KG MUCAPE OR GREATER -- WILL SUPPORT A SEVERE THREAT THROUGH EARLY EVENING. OUTSIDE OF WW 364...A RELATIVELY MORE ISOLATED SEVERE POTENTIAL WILL ALSO EXIST OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS INTO FAR WESTERN MT AND SOUTHERN ID. RATHER HIGH PW ENVIRONMENT AND MODEST STORM MOTIONS WILL SUPPORT LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL. ..GUYER.. 05/19/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...PIH...MSO...BOI...OTX...PDT... 44352084 47012040 48241460 45971446 42261337  From mcd at goshenarc.org Fri May 19 23:09:00 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Fri, 19 May 2006 19:09:00 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 192306 SWOMCD SPC MCD 192305 SDZ000-NEZ000-MTZ000-WYZ000-200030- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0899 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0605 PM CDT FRI MAY 19 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...SERN MT/NERN WY/FAR WRN SD/FAR NWRN NEB CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 192305Z - 200030Z ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS REMAIN POSSIBLE INTO THE EVENING ACROSS SERN MT/NERN WY AND POTENTIALLY REACHING FAR WRN SD/FAR NWRN NEB. STRONG WIND GUSTS AND MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL EXPECTED TO BE THE PRIMARY THREATS...WITH OVERALL ISOLATED NATURE OF THREAT PRECLUDING ISSUANCE OF A WW. SMALL CLUSTER OF STORMS LOCATED ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL-SERN MT IS ASSOCIATED WITH LARGE SCALE ASCENT ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH ROUNDING THE TOP OF THE UPPER RIDGE. SURFACE TROUGH WAS ANALYZED FROM SOUTH CENTRAL MT SEWD INTO ERN WY TO WRN NEB WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 40S-LOWER 50S EXTENDING FROM SERN MT/NERN WY INTO WRN SD CONTRIBUTING TO AN AXIS OF WEAK INSTABILITY ALONG THE SURFACE BOUNDARY IN MT/WY. EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR VALUES OF 35-50 KT ARE SUPPORTIVE OF ORGANIZED STORMS... BUT THE WEAK INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED TO LIMIT COVERAGE OF ADDITIONAL SEVERE STORMS. DRY SUB-CLOUD LAYER WITH 30 DEGREE SURFACE DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS WILL ALLOW FOR STRONG WIND GUSTS...WHILE WEAK INSTABILITY MAY SUPPORT MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL. ..PETERS.. 05/19/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...UNR...CYS...BYZ...RIW... 44480677 45110791 45760794 46160625 45700393 45150325 43490293 42400389 42680493  From mcd at goshenarc.org Fri May 19 23:35:59 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Fri, 19 May 2006 19:35:59 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 192332 SWOMCD SPC MCD 192332 KYZ000-TNZ000-ILZ000-MOZ000-IAZ000-200100- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0900 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0632 PM CDT FRI MAY 19 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...NRN/ERN MO...SW IL...WRN KY CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 192332Z - 200100Z THE AREA ACROSS NRN MO WILL BE MONITORED FOR ANY INCREASE IN SURFACE-BASED TSTM DEVELOPMENT...WHILE POTENTIAL FOR ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD INCREASE BY ABOUT 03Z TOWARD WRN KY/TN. A SEVERE TSTM WATCH STILL COULD BECOME NECESSARY THIS EVENING INTO EARLY TONIGHT. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND LOCAL PROFILER PLOTS SHOW A MID LEVEL SPEED MAX MOVING SSEWD FROM IA TOWARD NRN MO THIS EVENING. A WEAK SURFACE LOW SHOULD CONTINUE TO MOVE SEWD IN ADVANCE OF THIS SPEED MAX...ALONG A SURFACE FRONT ALIGNED ALONG THE MS RIVER. THE WARM SECTOR HAS BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE /MLCAPE VALUES NEAR 1500 J/KG/ WITH BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS OF 57-61 F AND SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE MID-UPPER 80S. HOWEVER...SOME CONVECTIVE INHIBITION PERSISTS IN ASSOCIATION WITH A VERY WARM ELEVATED MIXED LAYER. THE RECENT DEVELOPMENT OF ISOLATED DEEP CONVECTION ACROSS NW MO SUGGESTS THAT THE CAP HAS WEAKENED THIS AREA...THOUGH THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE ACROSS MO THIS EVENING IS STILL IN QUESTION. IF ADDITIONAL CONVECTION CAN FORM...THE COMBINATION OF MODERATE INSTABILITY AND STRAIGHT HODOGRAPHS WITH 0-6 KM SHEAR OF 40-50 KT APPEARS SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. THE MORE PROBABLE SCENARIO IS FOR ELEVATED CONVECTION TO DEVELOP LATER TONIGHT OVER WRN KY/TN...WHERE LOW-LEVEL WAA WILL BE ENHANCED ON THE NOSE OF A STRENGTHENING /35-50 KT/ LLJ. LARGE HAIL WOULD BE THE MAIN THREAT WITH THIS ACTIVITY. ..THOMPSON.. 05/19/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...OHX...PAH...ILX...MEG...LSX...DVN...SGF...DMX...EAX... 38878990 36798752 36128807 36328901 38089143 38599407 39249434 40159382 40749216 39709070  From mcd at goshenarc.org Sat May 20 00:51:29 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Fri, 19 May 2006 20:51:29 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 200047 SWOMCD SPC MCD 200047 IDZ000-MTZ000-ORZ000-WAZ000-200215- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0901 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0747 PM CDT FRI MAY 19 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...NORTH CENTRAL/NORTHEAST ORE AND SOUTHEAST WA INTO ID CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 364... VALID 200047Z - 200215Z VALID PORTION OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 364 CONTINUES UNTIL 04Z...WITH CONTINUED THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. MOST VIGOROUS STORMS IN SEVERE WATCH 364 ARE OCCURRING EAST OF THE RICHLAND/PASCO/KENNEWICK WA AREAS AS OF 0030Z. SMALL MCS WITH HISTORY OF STRONG DAMAGING WINDS -- INCLUDING A MEASURED 73 MPH GUST AT IRRIGON ORE...A 70 MPH GUST WEST OF HERMISTON ORE...AND A 61 MPH GUST AT PASCO/TRI-CITIES WA -- CONTINUES TO RACE EASTWARD ACROSS SOUTHEAST WA INTO AREAS NEAR/NORTH OF WALLA WALLA. GIVEN THE ORGANIZATION OF THIS CLUSTER AND DOWNSTREAM WARM/MOIST AIRMASS...A SEVERE THREAT FOR LIKELY PERSIST FOR THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO ACROSS FAR SOUTHEAST WA AND THE SNAKE RIVER VALLEY. ELSEWHERE...A MORE ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT EXISTS ACROSS WW 364 AND ADJACENT PORTIONS OF ID INTO FAR WESTERN MT. 00Z BOISE RAOB IS REPRESENTATIVE OF AROUND 900 J/KG MUCAPE IN PRESENCE OF MODERATE VERTICAL SHEAR. WHILE ISOLATED SEVERE POTENTIAL MAY CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...SEVERE POTENTIAL WILL LIKELY WANE WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. THUS WW 364 MAY ULTIMATELY BE CANCELLED PRIOR TO THE SCHEDULED 04Z EXPIRATION. ..GUYER.. 05/20/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...PIH...MSO...BOI...OTX...PDT... 47041399 46021435 44571380 43801377 42991484 43551747 44301996 46551906 47591737 48261503  From mcd at goshenarc.org Sat May 20 04:14:51 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Sat, 20 May 2006 00:14:51 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 200407 SWOMCD SPC MCD 200407 NCZ000-TNZ000-VAZ000-GAZ000-KYZ000-200430- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0902 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1107 PM CDT FRI MAY 19 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF CENTRAL KY INTO MIDDLE-ERN TN AND FAR WRN NC CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 200407Z - 200430Z WW WILL BE ISSUED SOON FOR SOUTH CENTRAL KY INTO PARTS OF MIDDLE/ERN TN AND FAR WRN NC. REGIONAL RADARS INDICATED RECENT INCREASE DURING LAST 30-40 MINUTES IN THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS KY/TN. THIS ACTIVITY IS ELEVATED TO THE ENE OF A WARM FRONT THAT EXTENDED FROM THE MID MS VALLEY ESEWD INTO MIDDLE TN TO NEAR THE TN/GA BORDER. 40-55 KT WSWLY LLJ EXTENDING INTO MIDDLE-ERN TN IS RESULTING IN STRONG LOW-LEVEL WAA AIDING IN CURRENT AND EXPECTED OVERNIGHT THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL ACROSS THE DISCUSSION AREA. AVAILABLE MUCAPE UP TO 1500 J/KG AND STRONG EFFECTIVE DEEP LAYER SHEAR /40-60 KT/ WILL CONTINUE TO BE SUPPORTIVE OF ELEVATED SUPERCELLS...WITH HAIL THE PRIMARY THREAT GIVEN STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AROUND 7.5 C/KM. ..PETERS.. 05/20/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...GSP...MRX...JKL...FFC...LMK...OHX...HUN...PAH... 35008578 36398739 37438683 37558519 36648366 36158272 34958341  From mcd at goshenarc.org Sat May 20 08:01:23 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Sat, 20 May 2006 04:01:23 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 200757 SWOMCD SPC MCD 200757 NCZ000-SCZ000-TNZ000-GAZ000-200900- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0903 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0257 AM CDT SAT MAY 20 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF MIDDLE/ERN TN INTO WRN NC CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 365... VALID 200757Z - 200900Z THROUGH 10Z...POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED SEVERE HAIL/LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS WILL EXIST WITH STRONGEST STORMS. LATEST MESOANALYSIS INDICATED WEAK LOW PRESSURE OVER FAR SERN MO WITH ATTENDANT QUASI-STATIONARY BOUNDARY EXTENDING SEWD FROM THIS FEATURE THROUGH MIDDLE TN INTO WRN NC. STRONG WAA N OF THIS BOUNDARY...DRIVEN LARGELY BY WLY 40-45 KT LLJ...APPEARS TO BE THE PRIMARY FORCING MECHANISM SUSTAINING ONGOING STORMS OVER PORTIONS OF MIDDLE AND ERN TN INTO WRN NC. RUC FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT THIS CONVECTION IS LIKELY ELEVATED WITH MOST UNSTABLE PARCELS ORIGINATING AROUND 850 MB. SUBSEQUENT STORM DEVELOPMENT WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE ALONG WRN OR NWRN FLANK OF TSTM COMPLEX OVER NRN MIDDLE TN WITHIN DEEPER CONFLUENCE ZONE DEPICTED BY VWP PLAN VIEW FIELDS AND LATEST SHORT TERM MODEL GUIDANCE. WHILE INSTABILITY IS NOT PARTICULARLY STRONG /I.E. MUCAPES OF 1000-1500 J/KG/...PRESENCE OF RELATIVELY STRONG DEEP-LAYER VERTICAL SHEAR WILL SUPPORT ORGANIZED UPDRAFTS CAPABLE OF ISOLATED SEVERE HAIL AND PERHAPS LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS. THE STRONGEST STORMS WILL LIKELY EXIST ALONG WRN EDGE OF CONVECTIVE COMPLEX OVER MIDDLE INTO ERN TN WHERE LLJ WILL MAINTAIN GREATEST INFLUX OF MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR. ..MEAD.. 05/20/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...GSP...MRX...FFC...OHX... 36218606 36498586 36518396 36178243 35698191 34988204 34758265 35048488  From mcd at goshenarc.org Sat May 20 16:43:34 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Sat, 20 May 2006 12:43:34 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 201640 SWOMCD SPC MCD 201640 SCZ000-NCZ000-GAZ000-TNZ000-ALZ000-201845- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0904 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1140 AM CDT SAT MAY 20 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...MIDDLE AND ERN TN...NERN AL...NRN GA...WRN NC/SC CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 201640Z - 201845Z PORTIONS OF THE TN VALLEY EAST TO THE SRN APPALACHIANS ARE BEING MONITORED FOR POSSIBLE WATCH IN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO. LATEST DIAGNOSTIC DATA WAS INDICATING BUILDING INSTABILITY ALONG AND SOUTH OF QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT SITUATED FROM TN SEWD ACROSS THE SRN APPALACHIANS. MEANWHILE...A CLUSTER OF WEAK TSTMS... POSSIBLY ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK LOW/MID LEVEL IMPULSE...WAS SPREADING SEWD ON THE COOL SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY. ANOTHER HOUR OR TWO OF HEATING ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR SHOULD EFFECTIVELY OVERCOME CONVECTIVE INHIBITION AND POSSIBLY FOSTER ADDITIONAL TSTM DEVELOPMENT NEAR THE FRONT AND OVER THE WARM SECTOR. WHILE MORE ROBUST FORCING REMAINS MARGINAL ACROSS THE REGION...ANY STORM THAT CAN FORM WILL DEVELOP WITHIN A MODESTLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT WHERE WEAK LOW LEVEL SWLY FLOW WILL BE TOPPED BY 40-50KT WNWLY FLOW. HEATED AND WELL MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER WILL ENHANCE DOWNDRAFT POTENTIAL WHILE EFFECTIVE SHEAR SHOULD SUSTAIN STORMS AND PROMOTE EVOLUTION INTO ORGANIZED CELLS/CLUSTERS WITH SEVERE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL INCREASING. ..CARBIN.. 05/20/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...GSP...MRX...FFC...OHX...BMX...HUN... 36188386 35768298 35378258 34968234 34538232 34118271 33868331 33518436 33758492 34458642 34748706 34908724 35438773 36148765 36288514  From mcd at goshenarc.org Sat May 20 17:46:16 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Sat, 20 May 2006 13:46:16 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 201742 SWOMCD SPC MCD 201742 MTZ000-WYZ000-IDZ000-201945- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0905 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1242 PM CDT SAT MAY 20 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTHWEST/CENTRAL MT INTO NORTHERN WY CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 201742Z - 201945Z SEVERE THREAT IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON ACROSS SOUTHWEST/CENTRAL MT INTO NORTHERN WY. PRIMARY HAZARD WILL BE LARGE HAIL...WITH DAMAGING WIND GUSTS ALSO POSSIBLE. A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MAY BE NEEDED IN THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTS WELL DEFINED SHORTWAVE IMPULSE MOVING NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS ID/WESTERN MT EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. FORCING FOR ASCENT TIED TO THIS FEATURE...AUGMENTED BY AMPLE HEATING/LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE COMPONENT...WILL LEAD TO INCREASING THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE THROUGH MID/LATE AFTERNOON FROM SOUTHWEST MT INTO CENTRAL MT/NORTHERN WY. A VERY MOIST AIRMASS EXISTS ACROSS THE REGION...WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 50S AND PW VALUES AROUND 180 PERCENT OF NORMAL PER 12Z OBSERVED RAOBS AT GREAT FALLS MT/RIVERTON WY. AS CONVECTIVE INHIBITION QUICKLY ERODES...MODIFIED 12Z RAOBS IN ACCORDANCE WITH LATEST RUC SOUNDINGS IS SUPPORTIVE OF MUCAPE VALUES OF 1500-2000 J/KG OR GREATER. COUPLED WITH MODERATE INSTABILITY/STEEP LAPSE RATES...VERTICAL SHEAR OF 35-40 KTS WILL SUPPORT SOME SUPERCELLS AND ORGANIZED MULTICELL CLUSTERS AS STORMS SPREAD NORTHEASTWARD WITH LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL. ..GUYER.. 05/20/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...BYZ...GGW...RIW...TFX...PIH...MSO... 48211133 48420805 47400696 45370667 44610675 44070787 44371054 44931213 46281262  From mcd at goshenarc.org Sat May 20 19:07:42 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Sat, 20 May 2006 15:07:42 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 201904 SWOMCD SPC MCD 201904 NCZ000-SCZ000-202030- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0906 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0204 PM CDT SAT MAY 20 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...SC...SRN NC CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 201904Z - 202030Z SEVERE STORMS MAY SPREAD EAST ACROSS PARTS OF SC AND SRN NC THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON. A NEW WATCH WILL PROBABLY BE ISSUED SHORTLY FOR AREAS EAST OF WATCH 366. CLUSTER OF SEVERE STORMS ACROSS NWRN SC...AND NEW DEVELOPMENT NEAR CLT...WOULD SUGGEST THAT SEVERE STORM THREAT MAY SPREAD EAST INTO WARM AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS ACROSS SC AND SRN NC THIS AFTERNOON. BOUNDARY LAYER ACROSS THESE AREAS WAS RECOVERING IN THE WAKE OF EARLIER MCS THAT MOVED OFF THE SC COAST THIS MORNING. RESIDUAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM THIS EARLIER CONVECTION APPEARS TO BE INTERSECTING FRONT ACROSS NWRN SC WHERE VIGOROUS STORMS HAVE PRODUCED SEVERE HAIL. STORM NEAR CLT APPEARS TO HAVE INITIATED NEAR THE FRONT/LEE TROUGH ON THE EDGE OF STRONGER INSTABILITY. ALL THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD CONTINUE TO DEVELOP EAST GIVEN STRONG WLY MEAN LAYER FLOW. UNIDIRECTIONAL SHEAR PROFILES FROM ACROSS THE REGION WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT SPLITTING CELLS WITH A HAIL AND WIND THREAT. LACK OF STRONGER LARGE SCALE FORCING MAY TEND TO LIMIT OVERALL STORM COVERAGE. HOWEVER...SOME UPSCALE DEVELOPMENT AND A MORE WIDESPREAD SEVERE THREAT COULD OCCUR IF STORMS CAN ORGANIZE ALONG LEE TROUGH/FRONT...OR WITHIN FRONTAL WAVE...POSSIBLY TRACKING EAST ACROSS THE CAROLINAS THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON. ..CARBIN.. 05/20/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...RAH...ILM...CHS...CAE...GSP... 34098230 35548166 35648070 35197913 34567863 34017872 33367953 32857989 33038042 33208086 33628148  From mcd at goshenarc.org Sat May 20 20:41:08 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Sat, 20 May 2006 16:41:08 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 202038 SWOMCD SPC MCD 202038 NCZ000-SCZ000-GAZ000-TNZ000-ALZ000-202215- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0907 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0338 PM CDT SAT MAY 20 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN TN...NERN AL...NRN GA...SRN NC...SC CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 366...368... VALID 202038Z - 202215Z NUMEROUS SUPERCELL STORMS CONTINUE TO PRODUCE LARGE HAIL ACROSS ERN TN...NRN GA...NWRN SC AND SCNTRL NC THIS AFTERNOON. THESE STORMS SHOULD CONTINUE TO SPREAD EAST/SOUTHEAST ACROSS WATCHES 366 AND 368 OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. VERY UNSTABLE AND WEAKLY CAPPED AIR MASS CONTINUES TO FUEL VIGOROUS CONVECTION ACROSS THE SRN APPALACHIANS LATE THIS AFTERNOON. MOST INTENSE ACTIVITY WAS OCCURRING COINCIDENT WITH WEAK DISTURBANCES SITUATED ALONG A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT FROM THE SRN TN/NRN GA BORDER AREA...EWD ACROSS UPSTATE SC...AND THEN NEWD TO THE NC PIEDMONT. WHILE THERE HAVE BEEN A NUMBER OF STORM SPLITS ACROSS THESE AREAS...IT APPEARS THAT MODEST WLY FLOW JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE HAS ENHANCED LOW LEVEL SHEAR AND FAVORED THE PERSISTENCE OF RIGHT-MOVING STORMS. ONE OF THE MORE PERSISTENT SUPERCELLS WAS NOW MOVING TOWARD NRN LUMPKIN COUNTY IN NERN GA. THIS CELL PRODUCED BASEBALL HAIL EARLIER OVER SERN TN. ON ITS CURRENT TRACK THIS STORM MAY PRODUCE SEVERE WEATHER IN PARTS OF HALL COUNTY BEFORE 22Z/6PM EDT. ADDITIONAL STORMS DEVELOPING WEST OF THIS STORM MAY BEGIN TO MOVE OUT OF WATCH 366 OVER THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS. THIS MAY REQUIRE A NEW WATCH...OR LOCAL EXTENSION OF WATCH 366...ACROSS PORTIONS OF NRN GA. ..CARBIN.. 05/20/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...RAH...ILM...CHS...CAE...GSP...MRX...FFC...OHX...HUN... 32677959 32118086 33808234 34288335 34608567 35908557 36058448 35648175 34427822 33377823  From mcd at goshenarc.org Sat May 20 20:58:54 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Sat, 20 May 2006 16:58:54 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 202053 SWOMCD SPC MCD 202053 MTZ000-WYZ000-202300- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0908 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0353 PM CDT SAT MAY 20 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...WESTERN/CENTRAL MT AND NORTHERN WY CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 367... VALID 202053Z - 202300Z SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 367 CONTINUES UNTIL 02Z...WITH CONTINUED THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL/STRONG WIND GUSTS ACROSS WESTERN/CENTRAL MT AND NORTHERN WY. MONITORING FOR AN ADDITIONAL WATCH ISSUANCE ACROSS FAR SOUTHEAST MT/NORTHEAST WY AND PERHAPS EAST CENTRAL WY. THE STRONGEST STORMS IN/NEAR WW 367 ARE OCCURRING AT THIS TIME ACROSS SOUTHEAST MT BETWEEN BILLINGS AND MILES CITY...WITH A RELATIVELY WELL ORGANIZED MCS ABOUT 70 MILES SE OF BILLINGS AS OF 2045Z. IN ADDITION TO LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WIND THREAT MAY INCREASE IN THE SHORT TERM ACROSS SOUTHEAST MT GIVEN THE APPARENT COLD POOL/MCS ORGANIZATION. ADDITIONAL STRONG/SEVERE STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED IN THE BIGHORN BASIN OF NORTH CENTRAL WY NEAR GREYBULL/WORLAND. THESE STORMS...AS WELL AS ADDITIONAL STORMS ACROSS SOUTHWEST MT...WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD EAST-NORTHEAST DURING THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AIDED BY WESTERN MT SHORTWAVE TROUGH PER WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. A RATHER MOIST/MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIRMASS WITH UPPER 40S/LOWER 50S F DEWPOINTS IN PRESENCE OF 35-40 KTS OF VERTICAL SHEAR WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT A LARGE HAIL/STRONG WIND GUST THREAT. SOUTH OF WW 367...MONITORING FOR AN ADDITIONAL WATCH ISSUANCE ACROSS FAR SOUTHEAST MT/NORTHEAST WY AND PERHAPS EAST CENTRAL WY. STORMS WILL LIKELY POSE AT LEAST AN ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT AS THEY DEVELOP EASTWARD INTO THE EASTERN WY PLAINS WHERE AN UNSTABLE AIRMASS EXISTS. ..GUYER.. 05/20/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...UNR...CYS...BYZ...GGW...RIW...TFX... 45281173 46621215 47571134 47410893 45880465 43590432 41210468 43430845 44251037  From mcd at goshenarc.org Sat May 20 21:46:29 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Sat, 20 May 2006 17:46:29 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 202143 SWOMCD SPC MCD 202142 WYZ000-UTZ000-IDZ000-NVZ000-202345- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0909 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0442 PM CDT SAT MAY 20 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...FAR WESTERN WY/SOUTHEAST ID/FAR NORTHERN UT/NORTHEAST NV CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 202142Z - 202345Z AN ISOLATED LARGE HAIL/STRONG WIND GUST THREAT WILL EXIST IN A CORRIDOR FROM FAR WESTERN WY/SOUTHEAST ID INTO FAR NORTHERN UT AND NORTHEAST NV INTO EARLY EVENING. AS CU FIELD/THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO BUILD THIS AFTERNOON...OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS DEPICTS AN AXIS OF MODERATE INSTABILITY FROM THE NORTHEAST GREAT BASIN OF NV INTO THE MOUNTAINS OF FAR WESTERN WY...ALL WITHIN A BELT OF MODERATELY STRONG SOUTHWEST MID LEVEL FLOW. WARM TEMPERATURES/AMPLE INSOLATION COUPLED WITH A RATHER MOIST AIRMASS/HIGH PRECIP WATER ENVIRONMENT PER 12Z OBSERVED RAOBS FROM ELKO/BOISE/RIVERTON/SALT LAKE CITY ARE SUPPORTIVE OF MOST UNSTABLE CAPE VALUES OF 1500-2000 J/KG OR GREATER. IT APPEARS AN ISOLATED LARGE HAIL/STRONG WIND GUST THREAT WILL EXIST WITH THE MORE ROBUST STORMS INTO EARLY EVENING...HOWEVER A WATCH ISSUANCE SHOULD NOT BE NEEDED. ..GUYER.. 05/20/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...RIW...SLC...PIH...BOI...LKN... 43991102 44040986 43130962 41831158 40361528 41361585 42041538 42761280  From mcd at goshenarc.org Sat May 20 22:49:16 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Sat, 20 May 2006 18:49:16 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 202245 SWOMCD SPC MCD 202245 NCZ000-SCZ000-GAZ000-TNZ000-ALZ000-MSZ000-ARZ000-210015- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0910 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0545 PM CDT SAT MAY 20 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...TN/NRN AL/NRN GA/NC/SC CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 366...368... VALID 202245Z - 210015Z THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS WW/S 366 AND 368. MAIN BAROCLINIC ZONE IN THE FORM OF A COLD FRONT EXTENDED FROM FAR SERN VA SWWD THROUGH CENTRAL NC TO ALONG THE BORDER REGION OF SW NC/SC AND NC/GA. THIS BOUNDARY THEN EXTENDED WNWWD AS A QUASI- STATIONARY FRONT THROUGH MIDDLE/WRN TN TO FAR NRN AR. MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS EXTENDING ALONG/IN THE VICINITY OF THIS BAROCLINIC ZONE AND INTO SC COMBINED WITH STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WITH RIGHT-MOVING SUPERCELLS BEING THE FAVORED STORM TO SUSTAIN A SEVERE THREAT. REGIONAL RADARS INDICATED THE STRONGEST STORMS WERE MOVING THROUGH THE FAR ERN PARTS OF WW 366 /SOUTH CENTRAL NC/ AND ACROSS MUCH OF 368...WHILE NEW TSTM DEVELOPMENT WAS UNDERWAY OVER SRN MIDDLE TN IN THE WRN PART OF WW 366. THIS NEW ACTIVITY APPEARS TO BE AIDED BY INCREASING LARGE SCALE ASCENT SPREADING SEWD INTO MIDDLE TN ASSOCIATED WITH APPROACHING SHORT WAVE TROUGH NOW LOCATED OVER THE MID MS VALLEY. AS THIS MID LEVEL IMPULSE APPROACHES MIDDLE TN... ADDITIONAL STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ACTIVITY LIKELY TRACKING SEWD INTO SERN TN/NRN GA. LARGE HAIL/STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL REMAIN THE PRIMARY SEVERE THREATS. WWD EXTENT OF SEVERE POTENTIAL INTO WRN TN IS MORE CONDITIONAL.. GIVEN THE CLOUDINESS WITH THE APPROACHING IMPULSE AND STRONGER INHIBITION LIMITING POTENTIAL FOR ASCENT/STORM DEVELOPMENT. IN ADDITION...WEAKER DEEP LAYER SHEAR EVIDENT OVER PARTS OF WRN TN INTO AR MAY MINIMIZE LIKELIHOOD FOR STORM ORGANIZATION. AIR MASS ALONG/E OF COLD FRONT IN CENTRAL/ERN NC IS MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH EFFECTIVE DEEP LAYER SHEAR SUPPORTIVE OF AN ORGANIZED SEVERE THREAT. CURRENT TRENDS IN RADAR IMAGERY SUGGEST AN ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT WILL CONTINUE TO EXIST N OF WW 368 WITH RIGHT-MOVING STORMS TENDING TO TRACK SEWD ALONG/NEAR THE NRN PERIPHERY OF WW 368. THUS...A NEW WW DOES NOT APPEAR WARRANTED ACROSS NC. ..PETERS.. 05/20/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MHX...RAH...ILM...CHS...CAE...GSP...MRX...FFC...OHX...BMX...HUN...MEG... 35979063 36008866 36048709 36288647 36088416 35628137 35728019 35687799 34907739 34227735 33547793 31848059 33918198 34598606 34988863 35069065 35579093  From mcd at goshenarc.org Sat May 20 23:20:16 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Sat, 20 May 2006 19:20:16 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 202317 SWOMCD SPC MCD 202317 OKZ000-TXZ000-210115- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0911 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0617 PM CDT SAT MAY 20 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...EASTERN TX PANHANDLE/NORTHWEST OK CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 202317Z - 210115Z POTENTIAL FOR DRY MICROBURSTS WILL EXIST FROM THE FAR EASTERN TX PANHANDLE INTO NORTHWEST OK OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. A WATCH IS NOT ANTICIPATED. ALONG A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY FROM THE TX PANHANDLE INTO FAR NORTHERN OK...A STORM HAS RECENTLY DEVELOPED/INTENSIFIED ACROSS HARPER COUNTY IN NORTHWEST OK AS OF 23Z...WITH ADDITIONAL STORMS ACROSS THE EASTERN TX PANHANDLE. NEAR STORM ENVIRONMENT AHEAD OF THIS ACTIVITY IS CHARACTERIZED BY A DEEPLY MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR 100 F. MODEST VERTICAL SHEAR AND INVERTED-V PROFILE BELOW 600 MB WILL SUPPORT POTENTIAL FOR STRONG DOWNDRAFTS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...WITH DCAPE OF 1200-1500 J/KG PER RUC DIAGNOSTICS. ISOLATED LARGE HAIL MAY ALSO BE POSSIBLE. ..GUYER.. 05/20/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...OUN...AMA... 35410055 36490024 36899740 36109773 35239993  From mcd at goshenarc.org Sat May 20 23:35:14 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Sat, 20 May 2006 19:35:14 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 202332 SWOMCD SPC MCD 202331 ALZ000-TNZ000-MSZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-210000- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0912 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0631 PM CDT SAT MAY 20 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...NERN AR/WRN-MIDDLE TN/FAR NRN MS/FAR NWRN AL CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 202331Z - 210000Z NEW WW BEING CONSIDERED FOR NERN AR INTO WRN TN/NRN MS. THUNDERSTORMS HAVE RECENTLY DEVELOPED ACROSS NRN AR /IZARD COUNTY/ AND FAR WRN TN /LAUDERDALE AND HAYWOOD COUNTIES/ ALONG THE QAUSI-STATIONARY BOUNDARY. OBJECTIVE ANALYSES INDICATED THE INHIBITION HAS BEEN WEAKENING ALONG THIS BOUNDARY WITH INSTABILITY REMAINING MODERATELY UNSTABLE /MLCAPE UP TO 2000 J/KG/. THIS REGION IS LOCATED ALONG THE SRN PERIPHERY OF STRONGER FLOW ALOFT...WITH SUFFICIENT DEEP LAYER SHEAR FOR STORM ORGANIZATION DECREASING WITH SWD EXTENT INTO ERN AR AND NRN MS. THUS...SEVERE POTENTIAL IS EXPECTED TO BE WITHIN A NARROW AXIS ALONG THE SURFACE BOUNDARY. IN ADDITION TO THREAT FOR HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS...HEAVY RAINFALL RATES WILL BE POSSIBLE AS STORMS TRACK EWD WITHIN HIGH PW AIR MASS. ..PETERS.. 05/20/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...OHX...HUN...MEG...LZK...SGF... 35059025 35479184 35939262 36479277 36509176 36268997 36028849 35698667 34698664 34838867  From mcd at goshenarc.org Sun May 21 00:07:30 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Sat, 20 May 2006 20:07:30 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 210004 SWOMCD SPC MCD 210004 MTZ000-WYZ000-210130- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0913 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0704 PM CDT SAT MAY 20 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTH CENTRAL/EASTERN MT AND NORTHEAST WY CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 367... VALID 210004Z - 210130Z VALID PORTION OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 367 CONTINUES ACROSS MT/FAR NORTHERN WY UNTIL 02Z...WITH CONTINUED THREAT FOR ISOLATED LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. RELATIVELY WELL ORGANIZED LINE OF STRONG STORMS/MCS IS MOVING EAST-NORTHEAST ACROSS EAST CENTRAL MT AT THIS TIME...FROM WESTERN GARFIELD COUNTY INTO PHILLIPS COUNTY AS OF 2345Z. ALTHOUGH SHORT TERM SEVERE THREAT MAY REMAIN...THIS LINE OF STORMS WILL QUICKLY WEAKEN AS THEY PROGRESS EAST OF THE FRONT INTO A COOLER/MORE STABLE AIRMASS PER NIL CAPE/STRONG CINH EVIDENT IN 00Z OBSERVED GLASGOW RAOB. FARTHER SOUTH...AN ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT WILL ALSO PERSIST OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO FROM SOUTH CENTRAL MT INTO NORTHEAST WY...WHERE THE AIRMASS REMAINS WEAKLY TO MODERATELY UNSTABLE OUTSIDE OF CONVECTIVE OUTFLOWS /NAMELY ACROSS FAR SOUTHEAST MT INTO NORTHEAST WY/. INDICATIONS ARE THAT WW 367 WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AS SCHEDULED AT 02Z WITH A DIMINISHING SEVERE THREAT VIA LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AND/OR CONVECTIVELY OVERTURNED BOUNDARY LAYER. ..GUYER.. 05/21/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...UNR...BYZ...GGW...RIW...TFX... 45291028 46310971 47570896 48710895 48660696 47660549 46260455 43630418 43720564 44800734 45020857  From mcd at goshenarc.org Sun May 21 00:50:52 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Sat, 20 May 2006 20:50:52 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 210048 SWOMCD SPC MCD 210047 NCZ000-SCZ000-TNZ000-GAZ000-ALZ000-210115- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0914 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0747 PM CDT SAT MAY 20 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN TN/PARTS OF WRN-SWRN NC/WRN SC/NRN GA/NERN AL CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 366... VALID 210047Z - 210115Z WW 366 IS SCHEDULED TO EXPIRE AT 01Z. HOWEVER...SEVERE THREAT IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST BEYOND 01Z ACROSS FAR SERN TN/NRN GA AND NERN AL...GIVEN ONGOING ACTIVITY OVER THIS REGION. IN ADDITION... UPSTREAM STORMS ALONG THE SURFACE BOUNDARY IN SRN PARTS OF WRN/MIDDLE TN EXPECTED TO TRACK ESEWD INTO NERN AL/FAR SERN TN/NRN GA LATER THIS EVENING...POSING A SEVERE THREAT AS WELL ACROSS THIS AREA. AIR MASS ALONG THE QUASI-STATIONARY BOUNDARY REMAINS MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH THE APPROACH OF THE MID MS VALLEY MID LEVEL IMPULSE AIDING IN STORM ORGANIZATION/SEVERE THREAT TO PERSIST THROUGH THE EVENING. MEANWHILE...AIR MASS OVER WRN PARTS OF NC/SC INTO MUCH OF ERN TN APPEARS TO HAVE BEEN STABILIZED BY EARLIER ACTIVITY...THUS LIMITING AN ADDITIONAL SEVERE THREAT ACROSS THESE PARTS OF TN/NC/SC. ..PETERS.. 05/21/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...RAH...CAE...GSP...MRX...FFC...OHX...BMX...HUN... 34478663 35358649 36208460 36068299 35548041 34938033 34588106 34168176 33798171 34318607  From mcd at goshenarc.org Sun May 21 01:38:57 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Sat, 20 May 2006 21:38:57 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 210135 SWOMCD SPC MCD 210135 NCZ000-SCZ000-210230- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0915 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0835 PM CDT SAT MAY 20 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN SC/CENTRAL-ERN NC CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 368... VALID 210135Z - 210230Z SEVERE THREAT EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DECREASING ACROSS VALID PART OF WW 368 AND AREAS N OF THIS WW OVER CENTRAL/ERN NC. AIR MASS ACROSS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL/ERN CAROLINAS CONTINUES TO STABILIZE IN THE WAKE OF EARLIER CONVECTION AND WITH THE ONSET OF DIABATIC COOLING. SEVERE STORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE ACROSS NERN SC AND ERN HALF OF NC THROUGH ABOUT 03Z...WHERE EFFECTIVE DEEP LAYER SHEAR CONTINUES TO SUPPORT STORM ORGANIZATION. HOWEVER...DECREASING INSTABILITY SUGGESTS ADDITIONAL SEVERE THREAT SHOULD REMAIN ISOLATED. ..PETERS.. 05/21/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MHX...RAH...ILM...CHS...CAE... 33458019 34388010 34877983 35067952 35347941 35847961 35937809 35427594 34717609 34237722 33387808 32917879  From mcd at goshenarc.org Sun May 21 02:31:49 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Sat, 20 May 2006 22:31:49 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 210228 SWOMCD SPC MCD 210228 TNZ000-ALZ000-MSZ000-KYZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-210330- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0916 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0928 PM CDT SAT MAY 20 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...SERN MO/NERN AR/WRN-MIDDLE TN/FAR NRN MS/FAR NWRN AL CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 370... VALID 210228Z - 210330Z SEVERE THREAT TO CONTINUE ACROSS WW 370 AS NEW STORMS DEVELOP TO THE NW OF THIS WW IN SERN MO/FAR NERN AR/FAR NWRN TN AND TRACK SEWD INTO WW 370. STORMS THAT DEVELOPED EARLIER ALONG THE SURFACE BOUNDARY IN SW TN HAVE MOVED ESE INTO SRN MIDDLE TN...WHILE THE WRN MOST STORM ASSOCIATED WITH THIS ACTIVITY HAS MOVED INTO THE WRN PART OF WW 371. MORE RECENT STORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS SERN MO INTO FAR NWRN TN IS LIKELY ELEVATED. ADDITIONAL ELEVATED DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE AS WAA REGIME IS EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN ACROSS SRN MO/NRN AR INTO WRN TN AS SWLY LLJ EXTENDING INTO THIS REGION INCREASES PER TRENDS IN RECENT WSR-88D VWPS AND SUGGESTED BY 00Z RUC. LARGE HAIL SHOULD BE THE PRIMARY THREAT...THOUGH STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE. ..PETERS.. 05/21/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...OHX...HUN...PAH...MEG...LZK...SGF... 34929110 36419134 37009095 36909011 36258787 35998649 34438691  From mcd at goshenarc.org Sun May 21 04:36:00 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Sun, 21 May 2006 00:36:00 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 210433 SWOMCD SPC MCD 210432 NCZ000-SCZ000-GAZ000-TNZ000-ALZ000-KYZ000-MSZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-210600- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0917 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1132 PM CDT SAT MAY 20 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...FAR SERN MO/FAR NERN AR/WRN-SRN TN/NRN AL/NRN GA/FAR WRN AND FAR SERN NC/NRN SC CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 370...371... VALID 210432Z - 210600Z THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH 06-07Z ACROSS WW/S 370 AND 371. SHORT WAVE TROUGH AIDING ASCENT WAS LOCATED ACROSS KY AT 04Z PER WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...WITH ACCOMPANYING 50 KT WNWLY MID LEVEL JET NOW LOCATED OVER SWRN KY-ERN TN. IN ADDITION...A 25-35 KT WLY LLJ EXTENDING FROM AR INTO WRN TN/NRN MS/NRN AL IS MAINTAINING A WAA REGIME FOR ASCENT/THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ALONG/N OF QUASI- STATIONARY BOUNDARY WHICH EXTENDED FROM NRN AR TO SRN TN/NRN GA. EFFECTIVE DEEP LAYER SHEAR REMAINS SUFFICIENT FOR STORM ORGANIZATION...WITH MARGINAL INSTABILITY LOCATED ACROSS ERN PARTS OF WW 370 AND ALL OF WW 371. FARTHER W...NEW STORMS MAY CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS SERN MO INTO WRN PART OF WW 370...BEING FED BY RESERVOIR OF STRONGER INSTABILITY LOCATED OVER NRN AR/ERN OK. FARTHER E...LARGE SCALE ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACHING KY MID LEVEL IMPULSE WILL MAINTAIN POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT ACROSS NRN SC/SERN NC. HOWEVER...WEAK INSTABILITY AND SHEAR SHOULD LIMIT SEVERE THREAT. ..PETERS.. 05/21/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...RAH...ILM...CAE...GSP...MRX...FFC...OHX...BMX...HUN...PAH...MEG... 34538788 35449013 36619015 36858959 35708611 35628421 34998311 34927984 34667792 33957847 33577923 33788165 34008360 34208617  From mcd at goshenarc.org Sun May 21 04:57:06 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Sun, 21 May 2006 00:57:06 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 210453 SWOMCD SPC MCD 210453 MOZ000-ARZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-210630- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0918 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1153 PM CDT SAT MAY 20 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...SE KS...SRN MO CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 210453Z - 210630Z ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS MAY EXPAND IN COVERAGE ACROSS SE KS/SRN MO THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. THIS AREA WILL BE MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE WW IN THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS. LOCAL VWP AND PROFILER WINDS SHOW PRONOUNCED WAA ACROSS SE KS AND SRN MO...N OF A STATIONARY SURFACE FRONT ACROSS NRN OK AND NRN AR. A FEED OF MODERATE INSTABILITY /MUCAPE VALUES AROUND 1500-2000 J/KG/ FROM THE SW AND EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR IN EXCESS OF 40 KT MAY SUPPORT A FEW SUPERCELLS BASED NEAR 850 MB ACROSS THE DISCUSSION AREA...WHICH WILL TEND TO LOCALLY ENHANCE THE LARGE HAIL THREAT. IF THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE AND INTENSITY CONTINUE TO INCREASE...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MAY BECOME NECESSARY IN THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO ACROSS THE SE KS AND SRN MO AREA. ..THOMPSON.. 05/21/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...PAH...MEG...LSX...LZK...SGF...EAX...TSA...TOP...ICT... 36748988 36249004 36479212 36999520 37349714 37879800 38359777 38469645 37609304 37019037  From mcd at goshenarc.org Sun May 21 16:55:23 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Sun, 21 May 2006 12:55:23 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 211652 SWOMCD SPC MCD 211652 COR SCZ000-NCZ000-GAZ000-211745- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0919 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1152 AM CDT SUN MAY 21 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...NERN GA...SC...SRN NC CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 211652Z - 211745Z CORRECTED NRN NC TO SRN NC FIRST SENTENCE A SEVERE TSTM WATCH MAY BE NEEDED SHORTLY FOR PARTS OF NERN GA...MUCH OF SC AND POSSIBLY PARTS OF NC. CLUSTER OF TSTMS DEVELOPING ESEWD FROM ERN TN AND NERN GA WILL MOVE INTO INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS ACROSS SC AND SRN NC THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. ACTIVITY WAS CURRENTLY INCREASING WHERE LIFT ALONG LEADING CONVECTIVE COLD POOL WAS FOCUSED ALONG RESIDUAL QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDING EWD ACROSS NRN SC. LEE TROUGH ALSO APPEARS TO BE SHARPENING ALONG THE ERN SLOPES OF THE APPALACHIANS AND INTERSECTS THE STATIONARY FRONT OVER NWRN SC. THIS AREA COULD FURTHER PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR TSTM DEVELOPMENT. FRONTAL ZONE LIES ALONG THE SRN EDGE OF STRONGER MID LEVEL FLOW AND HAS ALSO FOCUSED GREATER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. COMBINATION OF SHEAR AND INCREASING INSTABILITY...COUPLED WITH APPROACH OF CONVECTIVE COMPLEX FROM NERN GA...SHOULD RESULT IN AN INCREASE IN TSTM COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. ENVIRONMENT APPEARS TO SUGGEST ORGANIZED MULTICELL STORMS WITH SEVERE HAIL AND POSSIBLY SCATTERED DAMAGING WINDS SPREADING EAST ACROSS NRN SC...AND PERHAPS NEAR THE SRN NC BORDER AREA...THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. ..CARBIN.. 05/21/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...RAH...ILM...CHS...CAE...GSP...FFC... 34207914 33287984 33938225 34378374 35128309 35518275 34467909  From mcd at goshenarc.org Sun May 21 16:55:52 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Sun, 21 May 2006 12:55:52 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 211651 SWOMCD SPC MCD 211650 SCZ000-NCZ000-GAZ000-211745- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0919 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1150 AM CDT SUN MAY 21 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...NERN GA...SC...SRN NC CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 211650Z - 211745Z A SEVERE TSTM WATCH MAY BE NEEDED SHORTLY FOR PARTS OF NERN GA...MUCH OF SC AND POSSIBLY PARTS OF NC. CLUSTER OF TSTMS DEVELOPING ESEWD FROM ERN TN AND NERN GA WILL MOVE INTO INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS ACROSS SC AND NRN NC THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. ACTIVITY WAS CURRENTLY INCREASING WHERE LIFT ALONG LEADING CONVECTIVE COLD POOL WAS FOCUSED ALONG RESIDUAL QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDING EWD ACROSS NRN SC. LEE TROUGH ALSO APPEARS TO BE SHARPENING ALONG THE ERN SLOPES OF THE APPALACHIANS AND INTERSECTS THE STATIONARY FRONT OVER NWRN SC. THIS AREA COULD FURTHER PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR TSTM DEVELOPMENT. FRONTAL ZONE LIES ALONG THE SRN EDGE OF STRONGER MID LEVEL FLOW AND HAS ALSO FOCUSED GREATER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. COMBINATION OF SHEAR AND INCREASING INSTABILITY...COUPLED WITH APPROACH OF CONVECTIVE COMPLEX FROM NERN GA...SHOULD RESULT IN AN INCREASE IN TSTM COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. ENVIRONMENT APPEARS TO SUGGEST ORGANIZED MULTICELL STORMS WITH SEVERE HAIL AND POSSIBLY SCATTERED DAMAGING WINDS SPREADING EAST ACROSS NRN SC...AND PERHAPS NEAR THE SRN NC BORDER AREA...THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. ..CARBIN.. 05/21/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...RAH...ILM...CHS...CAE...GSP...FFC... 34207914 33287984 33938225 34378374 35128309 35518275 34467909  From mcd at goshenarc.org Sun May 21 19:23:33 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Sun, 21 May 2006 15:23:33 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 211920 SWOMCD SPC MCD 211920 NEZ000-SDZ000-COZ000-WYZ000-212115- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0920 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0220 PM CDT SUN MAY 21 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...EASTERN WY/WESTERN NEB/FAR SOUTHWEST SD/FAR NORTHEAST CO CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 211920Z - 212115Z AT LEAST AN ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON AS STORMS DEVELOP EASTWARD FROM THE EASTERN WY/CO FRONT RANGE INTO WESTERN NEB/FAR SOUTHWEST SD/NORTHEAST CO. ALTHOUGH QUESTIONS REMAIN REGARDING POTENTIAL SEVERITY/EXTENT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH COULD BE NEEDED BY 20Z-21Z. EXTENSIVE CUMULUS CONTINUES TO STEADILY BUILD ACROSS THE CO/WY MOUNTAINS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...WITH RECENT THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT FROM NEAR DOUGLAS TO CHEYENNE WY. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SUGGESTS ONE OR MORE SUBTLE IMPULSES MAY BE EMBEDDED WITHIN BELT OF MODERATE FLOW AMIDST UPPER RIDGE. WITH TIME...STORMS APPEAR LIKELY TO DEVELOP/SPREAD EASTWARD ACROSS FAR EASTERN WY/NORTHEAST CO AND EVENTUALLY INTO FAR SOUTHWEST SD/WESTERN NEB BY LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING. POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST ISOLATED SEVERE SHOULD INCREASE ACCORDINGLY AS STRONG INSOLATION AND GENERAL MAINTENENCE OF LOWER 50S F DEWPOINTS CONTRIBUTE TO MODERATE INSTABILITY ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. LATEST RUC GUIDANCE SUGGESTS POTENTIAL FOR 1000-1250 J/KG MLCAPE LATER THIS AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH INITIALLY RATHER WEAK...VERTICAL SHEAR WILL LIKELY INCREASE AS EASTERLY LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE COMPONENT INCREASES BY LATE AFTERNOON. ADEQUATE DEGREE OF INSTABILITY/SHEAR MAY BE SUPPORTIVE OF SOME SUPERCELL STRUCTURES...ALTHOUGH ORGANIZED MULTICELL CLUSTERS SHOULD BE PREDOMINANT. LARGE HAIL WILL LIKELY BE THE PRIMARY HAZARD INITIALLY...WITH POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WINDS ALSO DEVELOPING LATER THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING VIA COLD POOLS /GIVEN LARGE T-TD SPREADS/ AND POTENTIAL ORGANIZATION OF ONE OR MORE MCS CLUSTERS. ..GUYER.. 05/21/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LBF...UNR...BOU...CYS... 43970485 44140405 42450174 41000215 40630410 42670480  From mcd at goshenarc.org Sun May 21 19:42:33 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Sun, 21 May 2006 15:42:33 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 211939 SWOMCD SPC MCD 211939 NCZ000-SCZ000-212045- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0921 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0239 PM CDT SUN MAY 21 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...SC...SERN NC CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 372... VALID 211939Z - 212045Z SEVERE THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS VALID PORTION OF WW AHEAD OF CURRENT STORM CLUSTER...WITH POTENTIAL EVOLUTION TO A MORE WIDESPREAD WIND DAMAGE THREAT/BOW ECHO DURING THE NEXT HOUR. AREAS WEST OF THIS ACTIVITY MAY BE DROPPED FROM CURRENT WATCH GIVEN CONVECTIVE STABILIZATION IN WAKE OF THESE STORMS. AREAS EAST OF THE WATCH TO THE SC/SERN NC COAST WILL NEED ADDITIONAL WATCH IN THE NEXT HOUR. PERSISTENT CLUSTER OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES TO MOVE/EVOLVE QUICKLY ESEWD ACROSS UPSTATE SC THIS AFTERNOON. ACTIVITY HAS A HISTORY OF LARGE HAIL...WITH LATEST RADAR/SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATING OTHER RAPID DEVELOPMENT CONTINUING TO ADVANCE THIS BROKEN CLUSTER OF STORMS ESEWD ACROSS REMAINDER OF WW DURING THE NEXT 1-1.5 HOURS. STRONG HEATING AND LARGE T-TD SPREADS IN ADVANCE OF THIS ACTIVITY SUGGESTS WIND DAMAGE THREAT WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD INTO THE CENTRAL SC...INCLUDING THE CAE AREA... AROUND 2030Z. THIS IS RECENTLY EVIDENCED BY INCREASE IN WIND DAMAGE REPORTS OVER THE PAST HALF-HOUR. EXTRAPOLATION USING CURRENT MOTION OF 290/45KT PLACES LEADING ACTIVITY EAST OF WW BY 2130Z. WITH PREVAILING WLY SURFACE WINDS...SEA BREEZE WILL REMAIN NEARER THE COAST AND ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO WARM TO NEAR 90F ACROSS ERN SC AND SERN NC AHEAD OF THIS ACTIVITY. GIVEN DEGREE OF HEATING AND MODERATE INSTABILITY...SEVERE THREAT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ESEWD ACROSS THE NERN SC/SERN NC COAST EARLY THIS EVENING. THUS...WW WILL BE NEEDED IN THE NEXT HOUR. ..EVANS.. 05/21/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MHX...RAH...ILM...CHS...CAE...GSP... 33028108 33548198 34338242 35098173 35047988 34867833 34497771 33827786 32947888 32857992  From mcd at goshenarc.org Sun May 21 19:47:40 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Sun, 21 May 2006 15:47:40 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 211945 SWOMCD SPC MCD 211944 MAZ000-CTZ000-NYZ000-212115- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0922 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0244 PM CDT SUN MAY 21 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN NY...WRN MA/CT CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 211944Z - 212115Z ISOLATED TSTMS HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG STRONG COLD FRONT MOVING RAPIDLY EWD ACROSS THE HUDSON VALLEY. SMALL HAIL AND LOCALLY HIGHER WIND GUSTS MAY ACCOMPANY A FEW OF THE STRONGER UPDRAFTS BUT AREAL EXTENT OF THE SEVERE WEATHER CURRENTLY APPEARS TOO LIMITED FOR A SEVERE TSTM WATCH. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS CLEAR SLOT HAS DEVELOPED AHEAD OF STRONG COLD FRONT FROM THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY NEWD TO THE BERKSHIRES OF WRN MA. WHILE AIR MASS IN THIS ZONE WAS ONLY WEAKLY UNSTABLE... STRONG FRONTAL CIRCULATION AND STEEPENING MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ASSOCIATED WITH POTENT MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH APPEAR TO BE SUPPORTING THE DEVELOPMENT OF MORE VIGOROUS UPRIGHT CONVECTION AND AN INCREASE IN LIGHTNING ACTIVITY. WIND GUSTS TO NEAR SEVERE LEVELS...AND PERHAPS SOME SMALL HAIL...ARE POSSIBLE AS THESE STORMS DEVELOP EWD ACROSS PARTS OF THE MID/LOWER HUDSON VALLEY AND WRN MA/NWRN CT OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. ..CARBIN.. 05/21/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...BOX...OKX...ALY...BGM... 42587191 41547323 41167413 41367462 41907411 42657305  From mcd at goshenarc.org Sun May 21 19:52:24 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Sun, 21 May 2006 15:52:24 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 211949 SWOMCD SPC MCD 211949 ARZ000-MOZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-212145- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0923 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0249 PM CDT SUN MAY 21 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...SERN KS....NERN OK...SWRN MO...NRN AR CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 211949Z - 212145Z THE PROSPECTS FOR ORGANIZED DEEP SURFACE-BASED CONVECTION APPEAR TO BE IMPROVING ACROSS PARTS OF SERN KS EWD/SEWD ACROSS THE OZARKS OF MO/AR THIS AFTERNOON. A SEVERE TSTM WATCH MAY BE ISSUED FOR PARTS OF THE REGION WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO. WARM/MOIST AIR MASS FROM OK/KS EWD ACROSS SRN MO AND NRN AR WAS CONTINUING TO GRADUALLY DESTABILIZE UNDER PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES THIS AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE...DEEP-LAYER FRONTAL ZONE ASSOCIATED WITH VIGOROUS NERN U.S. SHORT WAVE TROUGH WAS SETTLING SWD INTO SWRN MO...BUT BECOMES INCREASINGLY DIFFUSE WITH WWD EXTENT ACROSS KS WHERE GREATER CLOUD COVER AND MID LEVEL MCV ARE DISRUPTING LOW LEVEL FLOW/THERMAL FIELD. COMBINATION OF DEEP LAYER FRONTAL FORCING AND LIFT/CONTINUING DESTABILIZATION ASSOCIATED WITH EWD MOVING MCV AND DIURNAL HEATING ARE EXPECTED TO PROMOTE SURFACE-BASED TSTM DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. MUCH OF THE REGION LIES BENEATH THE SRN EDGE OF MODEST /30KT/ WNWLY MID LEVEL FLOW. WEAK LOW LEVEL TURNING AND FLOW ARE RESULTING IN ADEQUATE SHEAR FOR SUPERCELLS BASED ON SGF VWP AND RAOB DATA. THUS...THE CHANCES FOR LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS SHOULD INCREASE AS STORMS FORM ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. ..CARBIN.. 05/21/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LZK...SGF...TSA...ICT... 36379473 36559544 36639659 37579665 37789469 37399174 36049174  From mcd at goshenarc.org Sun May 21 20:16:32 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Sun, 21 May 2006 16:16:32 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 212010 SWOMCD SPC MCD 212009 MTZ000-WYZ000-212215- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0924 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0309 PM CDT SUN MAY 21 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...NORTHEAST WY/SOUTHEAST MT CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 212009Z - 212215Z AN ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT APPEARS LIKELY ACROSS NORTHEAST WY/SOUTHEAST MT THIS AFTERNOON. PRIMARY HAZARD WOULD BE LARGE HAIL...WITH STRONG WIND GUSTS ALSO POSSIBLE. A WATCH IS NOT ANTICIPATED. SATELLITE IMAGERY/VOLUMETRIC RADAR DATA DEPICTS STORMS BUILDING ALONG/JUST EAST OF THE BIGHORNS IN NORTHEAST WY...WITH ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT OCCURRING ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL WY. WARM AND MOIST /UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S SFC DEWPOINTS/ NATURE OF AMBIENT AIRMASS IS CONTRIBUTING TO MLCAPE VALUES OF 1500 J/KG IN A CORRIDOR ACROSS FAR SOUTHEAST MT AND FAR NORTHEAST WY. GIVEN THE DEGREE OF INSTABILITY AND EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR AROUND 30 KTS /AIDED BY SOUTHEASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW/...IT APPEARS THE STRONGER STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL/STRONG WIND GUSTS THIS AFTERNOON. ANTICIPATED ISOLATED NATURE OF THE SEVERE THREAT WILL LIKELY PRECLUDE A WATCH ISSUANCE. ..GUYER.. 05/21/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...UNR...BYZ...RIW... 45020442 43670443 44420781 45141017 46210927 46080683 45580494  From mcd at goshenarc.org Sun May 21 20:18:38 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Sun, 21 May 2006 16:18:38 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 212013 SWOMCD SPC MCD 212012 GAZ000-TNZ000-ALZ000-MSZ000-212145- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0925 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0312 PM CDT SUN MAY 21 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...WRN/MIDDLE TN...NRN MS/AL CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 212012Z - 212145Z TSTM DEVELOPMENT EXPECTED TO INCREASE ALONG QUASI-STATIONARY FRONTAL ZONE ORIENTED GENERALLY WEST TO EAST FROM THE MS RIVER TO EXTREME NERN AL/NWRN GA. PARTS OF THE TN VALLEY EAST TO THE SRN APPALACHIANS WILL LIKELY NEED TO BE COVERED WITH A SEVERE TSTM WATCH SHORTLY. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY LOOP WAS INDICATING THICKENING CU FIELD ALONG FRONTAL ZONE ACROSS WRN TN. COMBINATION OF GREATER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FOCUSED ALONG THE FRONT THIS AREA...AND STRONG SURFACE HEATING...WERE CONTRIBUTING TO STRONG INSTABILITY AND DIMINISHING INHIBITION. PERSISTENT LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT MAY STRENGTHEN FURTHER AS MID LEVEL IMPULSE/SHORT WAVE TRANSLATES ESEWD FROM MO BOOTHEEL THROUGH EARLY EVENING AND THIS SHOULD PROMOTE AN INCREASING IN TSTM DEVELOPMENT ALONG AND NEAR THE FRONT. WNWLY MID LEVEL FLOW OF 30-40KT WILL RESULT IN SUFFICIENT DEEP SHEAR FOR SUPERCELLS WITH THE THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL AND HIGH WINDS SPREADING EWD/SEWD THROUGH THE EVENING. ..CARBIN.. 05/21/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MRX...FFC...OHX...HUN...MEG... 34638694 34908820 35218991 36128954 35998844 35828720 35638640 34908548 34628565 34398606  From mcd at goshenarc.org Sun May 21 20:38:21 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Sun, 21 May 2006 16:38:21 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 212035 SWOMCD SPC MCD 212035 KSZ000-OKZ000-TXZ000-COZ000-212230- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0926 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0335 PM CDT SUN MAY 21 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTHEAST CO/FAR WESTERN KS INTO OK/TX PANHANDLES CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 212035Z - 212230Z ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT WILL EXIST THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS OF SOUTHEAST CO/FAR WESTERN KS AND PORTIONS OF THE TX/OK PANHANDLES. A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IS NOT CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED. AS OF 2030Z...STRONG STORMS HAVE INITIATED ACROSS SOUTHEAST CO BETWEEN BURLINGTON-LA JUNTA TO NEAR SPRINGFIELD...AS WELL AS THE FAR NORTHERN TX PANHANDLE NORTH OF DALHART. THIS DEVELOPMENT IS OCCURRING WITHIN A DEEPLY MIXED AIRMASS...WITH TEMPERATURES ALREADY IN THE UPPER 80S/LOWER 90S. IN SPITE OF MODERATE INSTABILITY... MODEST EFFECTIVE SHEAR AROUND 30 KTS SHOULD TEND TO LIMIT OVERALL STORM ORGANIZATION AS STORMS DRIFT EAST-SOUTHEAST. IN ADDITION TO EPISODIC LARGE HAIL...INVERTED-V PROFILES CHARACTERIZED BY LARGE DCAPE AROUND 1400 J/KG AND TEMP-DEWPOINT SPREADS OF 40-50 F WILL SUPPORT STRONG/POTENTIALLY DAMAGING DOWNDRAFTS. OVERALL ISOLATED NATURE OF THE THREAT SHOULD PRECLUDE A WATCH ISSUANCE. ..GUYER.. 05/21/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...DDC...GLD...AMA...PUB... 37190102 35260125 35450259 38290317 39300279 38980163 38420108  From mcd at goshenarc.org Sun May 21 21:50:47 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Sun, 21 May 2006 17:50:47 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 212147 SWOMCD SPC MCD 212146 NCZ000-SCZ000-GAZ000-212315- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0927 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0446 PM CDT SUN MAY 21 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS ERN SC...EXTREME SRN NC. CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 372...373... VALID 212146Z - 212315Z PRIMARY CLUSTER OF SEVERE TSTMS WAS LOCATED OVER WILLIAMSBURG COUNTY AS OF 2130Z. THIS ACTIVITY -- WITH HISTORY OF MEASURED GUSTS TO 62 KT AT CAE -- WILL CONTINUE MOVING ESEWD 50-55 KT THROUGH FAVORABLY UNSTABLE AIR TOWARD COAST AND SHOULD PRODUCE ADDITIONAL DAMAGING GUSTS. CONVECTION SHOULD CONTINUE TO SHOW DISCRETELY FORWARD-PROPAGATING TENDENCIES -- WHERE NEW CELL GROWTH ALONG LEADING OUTFLOW EDGE EXPANDS QUICKLY AS EARLIER ACTIVITY WEAKENS IN STABILIZED AIR ATOP ITS OWN OUTFLOW POOL. BRIEF INTENSIFICATION AND PERHAPS MESOCYCLONE DEVELOPMENT MAY OCCUR OVER IMMEDIATE COASTAL AREAS GEORGETOWN COUNTY...AS COMPLEX CROSSES SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY THAT HAS BEEN CONFINED NEAR SHORELINE BY AMBIENT BOUNDARY LAYER WLYS. MODIFIED RUC SOUNDINGS SUGGEST AROUND 1000-1500 J/KG MLCAPE ACROSS PROSPECTIVE INFLOW LAYER NEAR COAST...WITH 30-40 KT STORM-RELATIVE INFLOW DESPITE WLY COMPONENT OF SFC WINDS. MEANWHILE ADDITIONAL TSTMS E FLO MAY CROSS PORTIONS COLUMBUS/BRUNSWICK COUNTIES NC BEFORE MOVING OFFSHORE...ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE POSSIBLE. SBCINH SHOULD CONTINUE TO INCREASE FARTHER W ACROSS SC FROM BOTH SFC DIABATIC COOLING AND OUTFLOW RELATED STABILIZATION. THEREFORE WWS MAY BE CLEARED FROM W-E AS PRIMARY ACTIVITY PASSES. ..EDWARDS.. 05/21/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MHX...RAH...ILM...CHS...CAE... 32317986 32638047 33078054 33198075 33038109 33128129 33098171 35177963 34847922 34847845 34507822 34727769 34217723 33527784 33427869 32657921  From mcd at goshenarc.org Mon May 22 00:24:47 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Sun, 21 May 2006 20:24:47 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 220022 SWOMCD SPC MCD 220021 KSZ000-NEZ000-COZ000-220215- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0928 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0721 PM CDT SUN MAY 21 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTHWEST NEB/WESTERN KS CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 220021Z - 220215Z STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD CONTINUE TO SPREAD EAST-SOUTHEAST ACROSS SOUTHWEST NEB AND WESTERN KS THIS EVENING...WITH CONTINUED POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. A WATCH IS NOT CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED...HOWEVER WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR DEVELOPMENTAL TRENDS. AT 0015Z...STRONG/SEVERE STORMS ARE ONGOING FROM FAR NORTHEAST CO INTO SOUTHWEST NEB NEAR MCCOOK AND FAR NORTHWEST KS NEAR GOODLAND. ALONG AND SOUTHWEST OF BAROCLINIC ZONE FROM CENTRAL NEB INTO CENTRAL KS...STORMS ARE LIKELY TO CONTINUE SPREAD EAST-SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE EVENING WITH AT LEAST AN OCCASIONAL SEVERE THREAT OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. GIVEN RECENT TRENDS NEAR THE KS/NEB/CO CONJUNCTION...SUSTAINABILITY WILL BE ENHANCED IF STORMS CONGLOMERATE/ORGANIZE A MESOSCALE COLD POOL OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO IN PRESENCE OF WARM/MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER CHARACTERIZED BY HIGH TEMP-DEWPOINT SPREADS. GIVEN THIS SCENARIO...AN INCREASING SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL JET PER LATEST RUC GUIDANCE WILL SUPPORT FORWARD PROPAGATION EAST-SOUTHEAST ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN NEB/NORTHWEST KS AND PERHAPS WEST CENTRAL/NORTH CENTRAL KS. RED WILLOW NEB PROFILER IS INDICATIVE OF AROUND 35 KTS OF VERTICAL SHEAR...SUFFICIENT FOR ORGANIZATION OF ONE OR MORE RELATIVELY ORGANIZED MCS CLUSTERS. IN SPITE OF STRONG AFTERNOON MIXING...BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE HAS HELD/MODESTLY INCREASED FROM CENTRAL KS INTO NORTHWEST KS...SUPPORTIVE OF MLCAPE VALUES OF 1000-1500 J/KG OR GREATER IN THE AMBIENT WARM SECTOR PER 00Z OBSERVED RAOBS FROM DODGE CITY/NORTH PLATTE. ALTHOUGH A SEVERE THREAT WILL EXIST FOR MUCH OF THE EVENING...CURRENT THINKING IS THE OVERALL THREAT WILL REMAIN SUFFICIENTLY ISOLATED/MARGINAL TO PRECLUDE A WW ISSUANCE. ..GUYER.. 05/22/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...ICT...GID...LBF...DDC...GLD... 40030219 40800149 40840014 40059916 38859901 38639947 38570100 38900206  From mcd at goshenarc.org Mon May 22 00:32:08 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Sun, 21 May 2006 20:32:08 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 220029 SWOMCD SPC MCD 220028 NCZ000-GAZ000-TNZ000-ALZ000-MSZ000-220230- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0929 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0728 PM CDT SUN MAY 21 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS WRN-SRN TN...EXTREME NRN AL...NWRN GA. CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 374... VALID 220028Z - 220230Z CLUSTER OF STRONG-SEVERE TSTMS CONTINUES TO EXPAND IN COVERAGE OVER WRN PORTIONS WW. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD SHIFT ESEWD THROUGH NARROW CORRIDOR OF MLCAPES 1500-2500 J/KG...TOWARD CHA AREA AND NWRN GA. THIS PROJECTED PATH IS ALONG AND S OF QUASISTATIONARY BAROCLINIC ZONE ANALYZED FROM SRN SC TO NWRN AR. THIS AREA IS ALONG SRN EDGE OF FAVORABLE KINEMATIC PROFILES...WITH 30-40 KT 0-6 KM SHEAR AND 50-100 J/KG OF 0-1 KM SRH. SFC-BASED BUOYANCY GRADUALLY SHOULD DIMINISH WITH TIME AND DIABATIC COOLING AT GROUND LEVEL...THOUGH EFFECTIVE LIFTED PARCELS WILL REMAIN ROOTED AT OR JUST ABOVE SFC FOR SEVERAL MORE HOURS IN SUPPORT OF DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL. ANY ACTIVITY MOVING S OF WW SHOULD QUICKLY ENTER LESS FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY STRONGER CINH...SMALLER MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES AND WEAKER DEEP-LAYER SHEAR....BASED ON MODIFIED BHM RAOB AND RUC SOUNDINGS S OF MID TN. ..EDWARDS.. 05/22/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MRX...FFC...OHX...BMX...HUN...MEG... 35718966 35528883 35458804 35518746 35648704 35808693 35508567 35868494 34788410 34348449 34188610 34658628 34618698 34798788 35258974  From mcd at goshenarc.org Mon May 22 02:35:28 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Sun, 21 May 2006 22:35:28 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 220231 SWOMCD SPC MCD 220231 NCZ000-GAZ000-TNZ000-ALZ000-MSZ000-220330- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0930 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0931 PM CDT SUN MAY 21 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS SRN MID TN...SERN TN...EXTREME NRN AL...NWRN GA. CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 374... VALID 220231Z - 220330Z ISOLATED SVR POTENTIAL WILL REMAIN PAST SCHEDULED 3Z WW EXPIRATION AND LOCAL EXTENSION OPTION EXISTS FOR A FEW COUNTIES FOR AN HOUR OR TWO. ADDITIONAL WW ISSUANCE IS NOT EXPECTED ATTM...HOWEVER. NARROW 50-80 NM WIDE CORRIDOR OF FAVORABLE MLCAPES -- ABOVE 1500 J/KG -- WILL CONTINUE FOR ANOTHER 2-3 HOURS AHEAD OF COMPLEX FROM NERN AL ACROSS NRN GA...BEFORE DIABATIC SFC COOLING BEGINS TO ELEVATE BASE OF LIFTED PARCELS AGL. SFC ANALYSIS...MODIFIED BHM/FFC RAOBS AND RUC SOUNDINGS SUGGEST AIR MASS BECOMES SUBSTANTIALLY DRIER AND MORE STABLE WITH SRN EXTENT INTO GA/AL. THAT PORTION OF OUTFLOW BOUNDARY MOVING THROUGH THIS CORRIDOR MAY INITIATE ADDITIONAL CONVECTION WITH POTENTIAL TO BRIEFLY REACH SEVERE LEVELS. ISOLATED/ELEVATED TSTMS N OF MAIN LINE IN MID/ERN TN -- ELEVATED ATOP OUTFLOW POOL -- MAY BRIEFLY PRODUCE HAIL. HOWEVER...OVERALL ORGANIZATION OF MCS HAS WEAKENED IN PAST HOUR AND SHOULD CONTINUE TO DO SO AS INFLOW LAYER AIR MASS BECOMES MORE STABLE...IN ENVIRONMENT OF MRGL VERTICAL SHEAR. ..EDWARDS.. 05/22/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MRX...FFC...OHX...BMX...HUN...MEG... 35718966 35528883 35458804 35518746 35648704 35808693 35508567 35868494 34788410 34348449 34188610 34658628 34618698 34798788 35258974  From mcd at goshenarc.org Mon May 22 03:47:28 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Sun, 21 May 2006 23:47:28 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 220342 SWOMCD SPC MCD 220342 KSZ000-COZ000-220545- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0931 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1042 PM CDT SUN MAY 21 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS NWRN AND W-CENTRAL KS. CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 220342Z - 220545Z CLUSTER OF STG-SVR TSTMS OVER NWRN KS IS EXPECTED TO MOVE GENERALLY ESEWD ACROSS PORTIONS NWRN-CENTRAL KS WITH POTENTIAL FOR OCNL HAIL AND DAMAGING GUSTS. AREA WILL BE CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED BUT WW NOT ANTICIPATED ATTM. MOST FAVORED TRACK FOR MCS APPEARS TO BE BETWEEN LOW LEVEL MOIST AXIS AND NRN PORTION OF INSTABILITY GRADIENT ASSOCIATED WITH QUASISTATIONARY BAROCLINIC ZONE. LATEST SFC...925 AND 850 MB CHARTS SHOWED THIS AXIS NEARLY COLOCATED AT THOSE LEVELS ALONG LINE FROM SGF...HUT...40 ESE GLD. DIFFUSE SFC FRONTAL ZONE WAS ANALYZED FROM NEAR HLC ESEWD TOWARD S-CENTRAL MO. MODIFIED RAOBS AND RUC SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT STEEP LAPSE RATES OF AROUND 8 DEG C/KM WILL SUPPORT MUCAPES OVER 2000 J/KG IN PRESTORM AIR MASS ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL/NWRN KS THROUGH 6Z. ALTHOUGH SBCINH IS STRONG AT OVER 200 J/KG IN MOST AREAS...THERMODYNAMIC PROFILE THROUGH THAT LAYER INDICATES POTENTIAL FOR SOME STRONG-SVR GUSTS TO REACH SFC. INITIALLY 30-35 KT SELY LLJ IS FCST TO VEER FROM SELY TOWARD SLY DIRECTION AND WEAKEN SLIGHTLY AFTER 6Z. EXPECT STORM-RELATIVE INFLOWS 30-50 KT BEFORE 6Z...WITH SOME POTENTIAL FOR ANY REMAINING CONVECTION THEREAFTER TO PROPAGATE MORE TOWARD SLY OR EVEN SWLY DIRECTION. ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT/PROPAGATION MAY CONTINUE ATOP OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM THIS ACTIVITY ACROSS PORTIONS NERN KS...WHICH IN TURN MAY FURTHER DRIVE OUTFLOW AIR MASS SSEWD. ..EDWARDS.. 05/22/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...TOP...ICT...GID...DDC...GLD...PUB... 39120199 39230138 39520083 39900046 39149782 38479964 38180209  From mcd at goshenarc.org Mon May 22 16:06:18 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Mon, 22 May 2006 12:06:18 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 221600 SWOMCD SPC MCD 221559 ARZ000-MOZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-221800- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0932 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1059 AM CDT MON MAY 22 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...SERN KS/SWRN MO/NERN OK/NWRN AR CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 221559Z - 221800Z LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF MCV SHOULD SLOWLY INTENSIFY OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS AS AIRMASS HEATS/DESTABILIZES. WW MAY BE REQUIRED BY EARLY AFTERNOON. LATEST RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS A SMALL ORGANIZED/ARCING LINE OF CONVECTION OVER S CENTRAL KS AHEAD OF WELL-DEFINED MCV. DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 60S AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE COUPLED WITH DAYTIME HEATING WILL YIELD A MODERATELY-UNSTABLE AIRMASS. HOWEVER...MORNING VAD/PROFILER DATA CONFIRMS MODEL PFC DEPICTION OF VERY WEAK DEEP-LAYER WIND FIELD ACROSS THIS REGION. DESPITE THIS...STORMS SHOULD REMAIN ORGANIZED ON THE MESOSCALE INVOF MCV. GIVEN DEGREE OF INSTABILITY WHICH SHOULD DEVELOP...EXPECT STRONGER CELLS TO PRODUCE HAIL AND LOCALLY GUSTY/BRIEFLY DAMAGING WINDS WITHIN A CONFINED CORRIDOR ORIENTED WNW-ESE AHEAD OF THE FORECAST TRACK OF THE MCV. ..GOSS.. 05/22/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LZK...SGF...EAX...TSA...TOP...ICT...OUN...DDC... 38529716 38269508 37489295 35979233 35529342 36029600 37059838  From mcd at goshenarc.org Mon May 22 18:34:38 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Mon, 22 May 2006 14:34:38 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 221831 SWOMCD SPC MCD 221830 SCZ000-GAZ000-222030- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0933 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0130 PM CDT MON MAY 22 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF NRN AND ERN GA/WRN SC CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 221830Z - 222030Z MARGINAL SEVERE THREAT SLOWLY INCREASING ACROSS PARTS OF NRN AND ERN GA AND ADJACENT WRN SC. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR CU FIELD EVOLUTION ACROSS THIS REGION. SURFACE ANALYSIS REVEALS SURFACE FRONT EXTENDING FROM NRN GA SEWD ACROSS SRN SC...WHERE HEATING/DESTABILIZATION CONTINUES. THIS REGION LIES BENEATH SRN FRINGE OF STRONGER NWLY FLOW ALOFT -- ROUGHLY ALONG THE ORIENTATION OF THE FRONT. CLOUDS/SHOWERS CONTINUE MOVING ESEWD ACROSS NRN AL/NWRN GA AHEAD OF WEAK UPPER FEATURE. AS ASSOCIATED AREA OF LARGE-SCALE UVV SPREADS ACROSS DESTABILIZING AIRMASS ACROSS THE DISCUSSION AREA...EXPECT THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP FROM WITHIN AGITATED CU FIELD NOW EVIDENT OVER NRN GA -- WITH ASSOCIATED THREAT FOR MARGINALLY-SEVERE HAIL. COULD STORMS ORGANIZE INTO A MESOSCALE CLUSTER INVOF FRONT...A MORE SUBSTANTIAL SEVERE THREAT -- INCLUDING POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WINDS -- COULD EVOLVE SHIFT SEWD ALONG SURFACE BOUNDARY. ..GOSS.. 05/22/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...CHS...CAE...GSP...FFC... 34448311 33878109 32588132 32868340 33818481 34588394  From mcd at goshenarc.org Mon May 22 18:44:07 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Mon, 22 May 2006 14:44:07 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 221841 SWOMCD SPC MCD 221840 NMZ000-COZ000-WYZ000-UTZ000-222045- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0934 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0140 PM CDT MON MAY 22 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...WESTERN CO/NORTH CENTRAL NM AND SOUTHWEST/SOUTH CENTRAL WY CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 221840Z - 222045Z THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL/STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS WESTERN CO AND SOUTHWEST/SOUTH CENTRAL WY INTO NORTH CENTRAL NM. A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IS NOT CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED...HOWEVER WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR DEVELOPMENTAL TRENDS. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY FEATURES UPPER TROUGH ADVANCING NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE LOWER CO RIVER VALLEY/SOUTHWEST DESERTS...WITH A STRONG MID LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY JET EXTENDING INTO THE FOUR CORNERS AREA. COUPLED WITH GRADUALLY COOLING TEMPERATURES ALOFT...AMPLE CLOUD BREAKS/BOUNDARY LAYER HEATING WILL CONTRIBUTE TO A FAIRLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS THIS AFTERNOON -- MUCAPES OF 1500 J/KG -- AND A LIKELY UPSWING IN CONVECTIVE INTENSITY THROUGH MID/LATE AFTERNOON. THIS TREND MAY ALREADY BE OCCURRING ACROSS NORTHWEST CO/SOUTHWEST WY GIVEN COOLING CLOUD TOPS/LIGHTNING INCREASE. THE DEGREE OF INSTABILITY/STEEP LAPSE RATES COUPLED WITH STRONG SPEED SHEAR WILL PROMOTE A LARGE HAIL THREAT. IN ADDITION TO LARGE HAIL...A RELATIVELY DRY BOUNDARY LAYER WILL ALSO SUPPORT POTENTIAL FOR STRONG CONVECTIVE DOWNDRAFTS. CURRENT THINKING IS THAT THE EXPECTED MARGINAL/ISOLATED NATURE WILL LIKELY PRECLUDE A WATCH ISSUANCE. ..GUYER.. 05/22/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...PUB...BOU...CYS...ABQ...RIW...GJT... 41240946 42640859 40880677 38720610 37310535 36340497 35880555 35990678 36400753 37110820 39060878  From mcd at goshenarc.org Mon May 22 20:03:29 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Mon, 22 May 2006 16:03:29 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 222000 SWOMCD SPC MCD 221959 COZ000-NMZ000-222200- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0935 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0259 PM CDT MON MAY 22 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...EAST CENTRAL/NORTHEAST NM AND SOUTHEAST CO CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 221959Z - 222200Z IT APPEARS THAT STRONG WIND GUST/PERHAPS LARGE HAIL POTENTIAL MAY SPREAD INTO THE SOUTHEAST CO AND NORTHEAST/EAST CENTRAL NM FRONT RANGE/FOOTHILLS THROUGH MID/LATE AFTERNOON. A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MAY BE NEEDED SOON. STRONG MEASURED WIND GUSTS HAVE BEEN OBSERVED OVER THE PAST 1-2 HOURS ACROSS CENTRAL CO AND NORTH CENTRAL NM WITH LOOSELY ORGANIZED CLUSTERS OF HIGH BASED THUNDERSTORMS. GUSTS NEAR/ABOVE 50 KTS HAVE BEEN OBSERVED AT TAOS NM/ALAMOSA CO. EVEN THOUGH THE PLAINS ARE STILL RELATIVELY STABLE...AMBIENT WIND FIELDS AND LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE/FURTHER DESTABILIZATION ACROSS THE PLAINS MAY SUPPORT A SEVERE THREAT DEVELOPING INTO AT LEAST THE I-25 CORRIDOR OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. IT STORMS CAN SURVIVE INTO EASTERN NM...40-50 KTS OF EFFECTIVE SHEAR WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELLS. ..GUYER.. 05/22/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...PUB...BOU...ABQ... 38540483 38890433 38300345 36700322 35110347 33560397 33790485 35050534 36360521  From mcd at goshenarc.org Mon May 22 20:35:28 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Mon, 22 May 2006 16:35:28 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 222032 SWOMCD SPC MCD 222031 ARZ000-MOZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-222200- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0936 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0331 PM CDT MON MAY 22 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...SERN KS/NERN OK/SWRN MO CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 375... VALID 222031Z - 222200Z STORMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP NEAR WRN EDGE OF WW...WITH SOME INCREASE IN INTENSITY OVER THE PAST HOUR. STORMS CONTINUE ACROSS PARTS OF S CENTRAL AND SERN KS...WITHIN AIRMASS WHICH HAS BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE. SHEAR -- THOUGH RELATIVELY WEAK -- CONTINUES TO SUPPORT LIMITED ORGANIZATION GIVEN DEGREE OF INSTABILITY. EXPECT A THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS IN AND NEAR WW. ..GOSS.. 05/22/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...SGF...TSA...TOP...ICT...OUN... 38219695 37749366 36389363 36809706  From mcd at goshenarc.org Mon May 22 20:52:47 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Mon, 22 May 2006 16:52:47 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 222048 SWOMCD SPC MCD 222048 COZ000-NEZ000-WYZ000-222245- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0937 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0348 PM CDT MON MAY 22 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...NORTHEAST CO/EASTERN WY CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 222048Z - 222245Z SEVERE POTENTIAL APPEARS LIKELY TO INCREASE ACROSS MUCH OF EASTERN WY/NORTHEAST CO REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON. WILL MONITOR FOR A POSSIBLE WATCH IN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO. WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS ARE ONGOING ALONG THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE IN WY/CO AT MID AFTERNOON. GIVEN MODERATE SOUTHWEST FLOW ATOP SOUTHEASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW...STORMS SHOULD SPREAD EAST TO THE FRONT RANGE AND IMMEDIATELY ADJACENT PLAINS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. MODEST VERTICAL SHEAR AND AN INITIALLY MORE STABLE AIRMASS INTO THE PLAINS PROVIDES UNCERTAINLY REGARDING THE EXTENT OF THE SEVERE THREAT THROUGH MID/LATE AFTERNOON. IN ADDITION TO A CONDITIONAL LARGE HAIL POTENTIAL...WARM/DRY NATURE OF AIRMASS AND INVERTED-V BOUNDARY LAYER CHARACTERIZED BY DCAPE IN EXCESS OF 1000 J/KG WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF STRONG/POTENTIALLY DAMAGING DOWNDRAFTS. THIS IS SIMILAR TO WHAT HAS OCCURRED ACROSS WESTERN/CENTRAL PORTIONS OF CO AND WEST CENTRAL WY /RIVERTON/ THIS AFTERNOON VIA MEASURED GUSTS. ..GUYER.. 05/22/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...UNR...PUB...BOU...CYS...BYZ...RIW... 39130502 40410551 42810614 44500666 44690508 43550434 40500369 39110331 39040377  From mcd at goshenarc.org Mon May 22 20:57:06 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Mon, 22 May 2006 16:57:06 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 222053 SWOMCD SPC MCD 222053 SCZ000-GAZ000-222230- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0938 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0353 PM CDT MON MAY 22 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...E CENTRAL GA/CENTRAL AND SRN SC CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 222053Z - 222230Z STORMS HAVE BEGUN TO INCREASE OVER THE PAST HOUR ACROSS E CENTRAL GA/W CENTRAL SC...ALONG WITH ASSOCIATED THREAT FOR HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS. NEW WW BEING CONSIDERED. STORMS ARE INCREASING INVOF REMNANT/ILL-DEFINED FRONT ATTM...WHERE AOB 1000 J/KG MEAN-LAYER CAPE IS INDICATED. WITH MID-LEVEL FLOW NEAR 40 KT FROM THE WNW...SHEAR/INSTABILITY COMBINATION IS SUPPORTING FAIRLY VIGOROUS UPDRAFT DEVELOPMENT. THOUGH DURATION OF THREAT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN LIMITED/DIURNAL...A FEW STRONGER STORMS WILL LIKELY PRODUCE LARGE HAIL AND PERHAPS LOCALLY-DAMAGING WINDS. ..GOSS.. 05/22/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...ILM...CHS...CAE...FFC... 33908318 33938186 33257918 32098073 33338355  From mcd at goshenarc.org Mon May 22 21:20:09 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Mon, 22 May 2006 17:20:09 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 222114 SWOMCD SPC MCD 222114 IDZ000-MTZ000-ORZ000-WAZ000-222315- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0939 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0414 PM CDT MON MAY 22 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...EASTERN ORE/EASTERN WA INTO NORTHERN/CENTRAL ID AND FAR WESTERN MT CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 222114Z - 222315Z SEVERE THREAT IS LIKELY TO INCREASE ACROSS EASTERN WA/EASTERN ORE AND NORTHERN/CENTRAL ID INTO FAR WESTERN MT REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR DEVELOPMENTAL TRENDS FOR A POSSIBLE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH. AT 2115Z...A SEVERE STORM IS ONGOING ACROSS NORTHERN ID ALONG I-90 EAST OF COEUR D ALENE. A RECENT INCREASE IS ALSO NOTED ROUGHLY NEAR I-82 IN SOUTH CENTRAL WA PER VOLUMETRIC RADAR. WITH AN OVERALL UPSWING OF AREAL THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE ANTICIPATED PER INCREASING FORCING FOR ASCENT...THINNING CIRRUS/BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS WILL SUPPORT FURTHER HEATING/DESTABILIZATION ACROSS THE REGION. RUC PROXIMITY SOUNDINGS ARE GENERALLY SUPPORTIVE OF MUCAPES OF 1000-1500 J/KG. SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY/STEEP LAPSE RATES COUPLED WITH 50 KT MID LEVEL SOUTH-SOUTHWESTLY FLOW WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR SOME SUPERCELLS/ORGANIZED LINEAR CLUSTERS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. ..GUYER.. 05/22/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...PIH...MSO...BOI...OTX...PDT... 47072011 48451822 48801580 47571421 44641430 43301661 44251890 45091967  From mcd at goshenarc.org Mon May 22 22:27:18 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Mon, 22 May 2006 18:27:18 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 222225 SWOMCD SPC MCD 222224 MOZ000-ARZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-222330- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0940 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0524 PM CDT MON MAY 22 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTHEAST KS/SOUTHWEST MO/NORTHEAST OK CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 375... VALID 222224Z - 222330Z ALREADY ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT EXPECTED TO FURTHER DIMINISH ACROSS SOUTHEAST KS/SOUTHWEST MO/NORTHEAST OK EARLY THIS EVENING. SEVERE WATCH 375 WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AS SCHEDULED AT 23Z WITH NO WW REISSUANCE. WITHIN UPPER RIDGE AXIS...SATELLITE/PROFILER TRENDS SUGGEST MCV ACROSS SOUTHEAST KS APPEARS TO BE PROGRESSIVELY LOSING ITS CHARACTER WITH TIME. SOME PULSE-TYPE SEVERE MAY STILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG COMPOSITE OUTFLOWS IN UNPERTURBED/UNSTABLE AIRMASS...HOWEVER THE SEVERE THREAT SHOULD REMAIN RATHER ISOLATED REST OF THE EVENING. ..GUYER.. 05/22/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...SGF...TSA...ICT...OUN... 37959697 37909502 37529352 36679335 36329419 36599597 36809670 37269707  From mcd at goshenarc.org Mon May 22 23:02:07 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Mon, 22 May 2006 19:02:07 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 222259 SWOMCD SPC MCD 222258 COZ000-NMZ000-UTZ000-230130- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0941 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0558 PM CDT MON MAY 22 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS CENTRAL/NRN NM...WRN CO...EXTREME ERN UT. CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 222258Z - 230130Z POTENTIAL WILL CONTINUE FOR STRONG/ISOLATED SEVERE GUSTS ACROSS THIS REGION THROUGH AROUND 02Z. WW NOT ANTICIPATED ATTM BUT AREA WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED. MOISTURE CHANNEL IMAGERY SHOWS STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW EJECTING NEWD ACROSS SERN NV...SWRN UT AND AZ...FCST TO MOVE INTO THIS REGION BY AROUND 6Z. AHEAD OF THIS TROUGH...MIDLEVEL AIR MASS IS FCST TO DESTABILIZE FURTHER AS STRONG LARGE SCALE DPVA/ASCENT SPREADS ACROSS REGION. AS THIS OCCURS...TSTMS SHOULD CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS SRN/WRN PORTIONS OF DISCUSSION AREA AND MOVE NWD TO NNEWD...INTO AREAS ALREADY AFFECTED BY EARLIER CONVECTION. LARGE AREA OF CLOUDS/CONVECTION NOW EVIDENT IN VIS/REFLECTIVITY IMAGERY WILL SERVE COMPETING PURPOSES -- TO PRECLUDE ADDITIONAL SFC-BASED DESTABILIZATION...BUT ALSO TO ENHANCE POTENTIAL NUMBER OF DAMAGING GUSTS OVER REGION BECAUSE OF RELATIVELY DENSE COVERAGE OF TSTMS. POCKETS OF RELATIVELY LOW-ELEVATION AIR MASS IN VALLEYS AND CANYONS NOT ALREADY STABILIZED BY PRIOR OUTFLOWS WILL HAVE INVERTED-V THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES SUPPORTING DOWNDRAFT STRENGTH. OVER HIGHER ELEVATIONS...STRENGTHENING LOW-MIDLEVEL GRADIENT WINDS AHEAD OF TROUGH MAY BE BLENDED WITH CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW FOR DAMAGING GUST POTENTIAL. WRN EDGE OF MAIN CONVECTIVE PLUME SHOULD REMAIN E OF ROUGHLY AN ABQ...FMN...CEZ...CNY LINE...AHEAD OF PRONOUNCED SFC SWLY WIND SHIFT AND DRYING THAT HAS BEEN OBSERVED. ..EDWARDS.. 05/22/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...PUB...BOU...ABQ...GJT... 40980684 38440602 37540548 37000575 37000599 35950602 35930629 34860621 35320723 37570823 38930992 40860967  From mcd at goshenarc.org Mon May 22 23:54:14 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Mon, 22 May 2006 19:54:14 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 222351 SWOMCD SPC MCD 222350 SDZ000-NDZ000-MTZ000-WYZ000-230215- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0942 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0650 PM CDT MON MAY 22 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS S-CENTRAL/SERN MT...WRN SD...CENTRAL/NRN WY...EXTREME SWRN ND. CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 222350Z - 230215Z CONVECTIVE COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE ACROSS THIS REGION THROUGH REMAINDER AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING...WITH CORRESPONDING INCREASE IN POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL. AREA WILL BE MONITORED FOR POSSIBLE WW. SFC MESOANALYSIS SHOWS WEAK SFC LOWS NEAR GTF AND NEAR CPR. QUASISTATIONARY FRONTAL ZONE -- ALSO ACTING AS EFFECTIVE DRYLINE -- EXTENDING SEWD FROM GTF SFC LOW ACROSS SERN CORNER MT TO NEAR RAP. CONFLUENCE/WIND SHIFT LINE EXTENDS FROM CPR SFC LOW NWD TO INTERSECT FRONTAL/DRYLINE BOUNDARY ROUGHLY 30-50 S MLS. AXES OF SFC PRESSURE FALLS ARE EVIDENT ALONG OR JUST E OF BOTH OF THESE BOUNDARIES...HELPING TO MAINTAIN ASSOCIATED CONVERGENCE. IN ADDITION...LARGE SCALE ASCENT AND VERTICAL SHEAR EACH IS FCST TO INCREASE ACROSS THIS REGION THIS EVENING IN CONJUNCTION WITH 1. INCREASING MIDLEVEL DPVA AHEAD OF PHASED/NEWD-MOVING MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGHS -- NOW EVIDENT IN MOISTURE CHANNEL IMAGERY OVER GREAT BASIN AND NRN AZ... 2. CONTINUED ISALLOBARIC FORCING AND BACKING OF FLOW INVOF FRONTAL/DRYLINE BOUNDARY...AND 3. INCREASING LOW LEVEL WAA ASSOCIATED WITH LLJ STRENGTHENING TO 40-50 KT ALONG WRN BORDER OF DAKOTAS AFTER DARK. UNTIL THEN...MODIFIED RUC SOUNDINGS SUGGEST SFC TEMPS WILL REMAIN WARM ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SFC-BASED BUOYANT PARCELS WITH MLCAPES 500-1000 J/KG SW OF FRONT WHERE SFC DEW POINTS REMAIN IN 30S/40S F...AND 1000-2000 J/KG ALONG AND NE OF BOUNDARY WITH DEW POINTS 50S F. ..EDWARDS.. 05/22/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...BIS...UNR...CYS...BYZ...GGW...RIW...TFX... 46600511 45220276 43020287 43020401 43510410 43490605 42940608 42410611 42360692 42790765 44620791 46820874  From mcd at goshenarc.org Tue May 23 00:14:04 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Mon, 22 May 2006 20:14:04 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 230010 SWOMCD SPC MCD 230010 OKZ000-COZ000-TXZ000-NMZ000-230215- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0943 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0710 PM CDT MON MAY 22 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS ERN NM...S-CENTRAL/SERN CO...WRN OK PANHANDLE...WRN TX PANHANDLE. CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 376... VALID 230010Z - 230215Z SVR TSTM POTENTIAL IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH FROM SW-NE ACROSS WW WITH TIME BECAUSE OF SUBSTANTIAL LOW LEVEL DRYING...LEADING EDGE OF WHICH IS ANALYZED AT 00Z FROM ROW-ABQ/CEZ. ALTHOUGH SOME CU/TCU STILL ARE EVIDENT ON VIS IMAGERY SW OF THIS LINE...DIABATIC HEATING HAS PEAKED OVER HIGHER ELEVATIONS IN SWRN PORTION WW...AND GENERAL CONVECTIVE TREND SHOULD BE TOWARD WEAKENING IN THAT AREA. WW MAY BE CLEARED FROM SW-NE ACCORDINGLY. FARTHER N...INCREASING LARGE SCALE ASCENT AND VERTICAL SHEAR SHOULD SPREAD OVER NERN NM AND SERN CO THROUGH REMAINDER EVENING...AHEAD OF STRONG MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH NOW EVIDENT IN MOISTURE CHANNEL IMAGERY FROM SWRN NM NWWD ACROSS NRN AZ. THIS MAY LEAD TO ENOUGH LARGE SCALE DESTABILIZATION ALOFT THIS EVENING TO OFFSET LOW LEVEL STABILIZING EFFECTS OF CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW ACROSS MUCH OF SERN CO....HOWEVER NEAR-TERN SVR POTENTIAL OVER MOST OF SERN CO HAS DIMINISHED MARKEDLY. MEANWHILE STG/POSSIBLY SEVERE TSTMS ACROSS NERN NM MAY MOVE INTO PORTIONS ERN TX/OK PANHANDLES WITH THREAT OF MRGL SVR HAIL AND GUSTS...HOWEVER POTENTIAL APPEARS TOO CONFINED IN AREAL EXTENT FOR ADDITIONAL WW E OF THIS ONE. ..EDWARDS.. 05/23/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...GLD...LUB...AMA...MAF...PUB...BOU...ABQ... 33490463 35620576 36620590 38790537 38720308 37810278 36850244 35320254 33540323  From mcd at goshenarc.org Tue May 23 00:31:23 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Mon, 22 May 2006 20:31:23 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 230028 SWOMCD SPC MCD 230027 MTZ000-IDZ000-ORZ000-WAZ000-230230- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0944 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0727 PM CDT MON MAY 22 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...EASTERN WA/NORTHEAST ORE/NORTHERN AND CENTRAL ID/FAR WESTERN MT CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 377... VALID 230027Z - 230230Z SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 377 CONTINUES UNTIL 05Z...WITH CONTINUED THREAT FOR ISOLATED LARGE HAIL/STRONG WIND GUSTS THROUGH EARLY/MID EVENING. STORMS WITH EARLIER HISTORY OF LARGE HAIL/STRONG WIND GUSTS CONTINUE TO PROGRESS NORTH-NORTHEAST FROM FAR NORTHWEST MT/FAR NORTHERN ID INTO BRITISH COLUMBIA AT THIS TIME. FURTHER SOUTHWEST...LIKELY TIED TO PRIMARY BAND OF FORCING FOR ASCENT PER WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...NORTHWEST-SOUTHEAST ORIENTED ARC OF STORMS IS ADVANCING NORTH-NORTHEAST ACROSS EASTERN WA/FAR NORTHEAST ORE AND SOUTHERN ID AS OF 0030Z. AHEAD OF THESE STORMS...MODEST CLOUD BREAKS/HEATING WILL MAINTAIN LOCALLY MODERATE INSTABILITY...WITH MODIFIED 00Z OBSERVED SPOKANE WA RAOB SUPPORTIVE OF MOST UNSTABLE CAPE VALUES OF 1500-1800 J/KG WHERE MIDDLE 60S TO LOWER 70S TEMPERATURES PERSIST. IT APPEARS THE PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST TWO-THIRDS OF WW 377 ACROSS FAR EASTERN WA/NORTHERN ID/WESTERN MT THROUGH EARLY/MID EVENING. ..GUYER.. 05/23/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MSO...BOI...OTX...PDT... 46121897 46981964 47941855 48581825 48801647 48801429 48131362 47801331 47721415 47331407 47411445 47321494 46881508 46321477 45131511 44411556 44741620 44541679 44531705 44591776 44721796 45081814 45121887  From mcd at goshenarc.org Tue May 23 02:00:15 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Mon, 22 May 2006 22:00:15 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 230157 SWOMCD SPC MCD 230156 NEZ000-COZ000-SDZ000-WYZ000-230400- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0945 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0856 PM CDT MON MAY 22 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS NRN/ERN CO...SERN WY...NEB PANHANDLE. CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 378... VALID 230156Z - 230400Z STRONGEST TSTMS AS OF 145Z ARE EVIDENT OVER PORTIONS ELBERT/LINCOLN/CROWLEY/KIOWA COUNTIES. SEVERE GUST/HAIL POTENTIAL WILL CONTINUE WITH THIS ACTIVITY AS IT MOVES NEWD ALONG INSTABILITY GRADIENT RELATED TO OUTFLOW FROM EARLIER ACTIVITY...AND ACROSS I-70 CORRIDOR BETWEEN LIC-GLD. OTHERWISE...SEVERE WIND POTENTIAL APPEARS TO BE DIMINISHING SOMEWHAT AS BOUNDARY LAYER AIR MASS STABILIZES...FROM COMBINATION OF DIABATIC SFC COOLING AND STABILIZATION RELATED TO EARLIER CONVECTIVE OUTFLOWS. PRIMARY EXCEPTIONS MAY BE 1. ACTIVITY MOVING NEWD FROM CHAFFEE/SAGUACHE COUNTIES...PER COORD W/BOU. THIS ACTIVITY HAS PRODUCED MEASURED 40-50 KT GUSTS...IS EMBEDDED IN STRENGTHENING AMBIENT/GRADIENT FLOW AND MAY PRODUCE HIGH-ELEVATION WIND DAMAGE. 2. HAIL-PRODUCING TSTMS THAT MAY DEVELOP LATER THIS EVENING E OF FRONT RANGE...ATOP OUTFLOW POOLS...IN ZONE OF INCREASING LARGE SCALE ASCENT RELATED TO MIDLEVEL DPVA AND ELEVATED WAA. ..EDWARDS.. 05/23/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LBF...UNR...GLD...PUB...BOU...CYS...RIW...GJT... 40990635 41380632 41500603 43480607 43490397 43050399 43020282 40990202 38600210 38290345 38520406 39090409 39140531 38660531 38740594 40970684  From mcd at goshenarc.org Tue May 23 02:26:45 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Mon, 22 May 2006 22:26:45 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 230223 SWOMCD SPC MCD 230223 COR NEZ000-COZ000-SDZ000-WYZ000-230400- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0945 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0923 PM CDT MON MAY 22 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS NRN/ERN CO...SERN WY...NEB PANHANDLE. CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 378... VALID 230223Z - 230400Z CORRECTED FOR GRAPHIC LABEL STRONGEST TSTMS AS OF 145Z ARE EVIDENT OVER PORTIONS ELBERT/LINCOLN/CROWLEY/KIOWA COUNTIES. SEVERE GUST/HAIL POTENTIAL WILL CONTINUE WITH THIS ACTIVITY AS IT MOVES NEWD ALONG INSTABILITY GRADIENT RELATED TO OUTFLOW FROM EARLIER ACTIVITY...AND ACROSS I-70 CORRIDOR BETWEEN LIC-GLD. OTHERWISE...SEVERE WIND POTENTIAL APPEARS TO BE DIMINISHING SOMEWHAT AS BOUNDARY LAYER AIR MASS STABILIZES...FROM COMBINATION OF DIABATIC SFC COOLING AND STABILIZATION RELATED TO EARLIER CONVECTIVE OUTFLOWS. PRIMARY EXCEPTIONS MAY BE 1. ACTIVITY MOVING NEWD FROM CHAFFEE/SAGUACHE COUNTIES...PER COORD W/BOU. THIS ACTIVITY HAS PRODUCED MEASURED 40-50 KT GUSTS...IS EMBEDDED IN STRENGTHENING AMBIENT/GRADIENT FLOW AND MAY PRODUCE HIGH-ELEVATION WIND DAMAGE. 2. HAIL-PRODUCING TSTMS THAT MAY DEVELOP LATER THIS EVENING E OF FRONT RANGE...ATOP OUTFLOW POOLS...IN ZONE OF INCREASING LARGE SCALE ASCENT RELATED TO MIDLEVEL DPVA AND ELEVATED WAA. ..EDWARDS.. 05/23/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LBF...UNR...GLD...PUB...BOU...CYS...RIW...GJT... 40990635 41380632 41500603 43480607 43490397 43050399 43020282 40990202 38600210 38290345 38520406 39090409 39140531 38660531 38740594 40970684  From mcd at goshenarc.org Tue May 23 02:40:30 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Mon, 22 May 2006 22:40:30 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 230237 SWOMCD SPC MCD 230237 NEZ000-KSZ000-OKZ000-TXZ000-COZ000-NMZ000-230330- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0946 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0937 PM CDT MON MAY 22 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS ERN/NRN NM...E-CENTRAL/SERN CO...WRN KS...OK PANHANDLE..WRN TX PANHANDLE. CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 376... VALID 230237Z - 230330Z SEVERE POTENTIAL CONTINUES ACROSS PORTIONS NERN NM AND SERN CO...AND MAY SOON SHIFT NEWD ACROSS PORTIONS WRN KS AND WRN OK PANHANDLE. WW REPLACEMENT OR ADDITIONAL WW MAY BE REQUIRED BEFORE 3Z...WHICH IS SCHEDULED EXPIRATION TIME FOR REMAINDER WW 376. BAND OF CONVECTION FROM CENTRAL CO MOUNTAINS SSEWD ACROSS NERN NM IS CONSOLIDATING IN BOTH REFLECTIVITY AND CG LIGHTNING PATTERNS...INDICATING OVERALL INTENSIFICATION. THIS IS OCCURRING AS STRONGEST SUPPORTIVE DEEP-LAYER ASCENT -- ASSOCIATED WITH EJECTING MID-UPPER TROUGH OVER 4-CORNERS REGION -- ALSO LIFTS NEWD. MEANWHILE LOW LEVEL WAA AND ELEVATED MOISTURE TRANSPORT WILL INCREASE OVER CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS IN ASSOCIATION WITH STRENGTHENING SELY LLJ...ALREADY EVIDENT IN PROFILER/VWP DATA. CROSS SECTION OF 00Z RAOBS ALONG DDC-AMA-MAF LINE...AS WELL AS MODIFIED RUC SOUNDINGS...SUGGESTS AIR MASS WILL CONTINUE TO BE DRIER IN LOW-MIDDLE LEVELS WITH SWD EXTENT INTO TX PANHANDLE AND ERN NM...CHARACTERIZED BY RELATIVELY WEAKER MUCAPE...AND THEREFORE LESS FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE. THEREFORE MOST PROBABLE AREA FOR NEW WW IS FROM OK PANHANDLE AND EXTREME NERN NM NWD. ..EDWARDS.. 05/23/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LBF...DDC...GLD...AMA...PUB...BOU...ABQ... 38690596 38590209 40460205 40450261 41700237 41560082 38520025 37450065 36270172 35790249 35660277 35470305 35200347 34880383 36020528 37020568  From mcd at goshenarc.org Tue May 23 04:37:04 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Tue, 23 May 2006 00:37:04 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 230433 SWOMCD SPC MCD 230432 NEZ000-KSZ000-OKZ000-COZ000-TXZ000-NMZ000-230600- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0947 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1132 PM CDT MON MAY 22 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS NRN/ERN CO...NERN NM...OK PANHANDLE...WRN KS...WRN NEB...NWRN TX PANHANDLE. CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 379... VALID 230432Z - 230600Z TWO PRIMARY BANDS OF CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NEWD 35-45 KT ACROSS WW AREA. LEADING BAND -- EVIDENT AT 415Z FROM WALLACE COUNTY KS NNWWD TOWARD PHILLIPS COUNTY CO -- IS EXPECTED TO AFFECT GLD-MCK-OGA AREA WITHIN NEXT 2 HOURS WITH POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING GUSTS AND MRGLLY SVR HAIL. MOST INTENSE/SOLID PORTION OF SECOND BAND WILL MOVE NEWD ACROSS LAA-LIC-GLD TRIANGLE DURING SAME TIME FRAME...HOWEVER POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR ACTIVITY TO STRENGTHEN SWD ACROSS SERN CO INTO SWRN KS WITH TIME. NARROW CORRIDOR OF LOW LEVEL RECOVERY MAY OCCUR BEHIND INITIAL BAND ACROSS NERN CO...IN ASSOCIATION WITH CONTRIBUTION OF 40-50 KT LLJ TO ISENTROPIC ATOP OUTFLOW POOL. HOWEVER...PRIND DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL WITH SECOND BAND WILL DECREASE WITH NWWD EXTENT...AND INCREASING DISTANCE FROM OPTIMAL LOW LEVEL THETAE....BECAUSE OF MORE DEEPLY STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER INHIBITING DOWNDRAFT PENETRATION TO SFC. AIR MASS ACROSS WRN KS AND SERN CO IS CHARACTERIZED BY STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES AROUND 8 DEG C/KM...ATOP LOW LEVEL MOISTURE THAT INCREASES WITH NEWD EXTENT THROUGH WW. EFFECTIVE PARCELS SHOULD REMAIN ROOTED NEAR SFC IN PRECONVECTIVE AIR MASS...WITH MLCAPES 1500-2000 J/KG POSSIBLE NEAR MOIST AXIS...OVER NWRN KS AND SWRN NEB. FARTHER S...STRONG/MRGLLY SVR TSTMS MAY CLIP NERN TX PANHANDLE...PRIMARILY DALLAM/HARTLEY COUNTIES...HOWEVER BEST-ORGANIZED ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN FARTHER N IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO FAVORABLE MOISTURE. ..EDWARDS.. 05/23/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...GID...LBF...DDC...GLD...AMA...PUB...BOU...CYS...ABQ... 36990382 38000320 38900325 39610405 41170271 42950279 42960011 40360015 36990156 35530326  From mcd at goshenarc.org Tue May 23 07:08:13 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Tue, 23 May 2006 03:08:13 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 230705 SWOMCD SPC MCD 230705 NEZ000-KSZ000-SDZ000-COZ000-230830- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0948 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0205 AM CDT TUE MAY 23 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN CO/WRN AND CNTRL NEB/NWRN KS CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 379... VALID 230705Z - 230830Z POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND SEVERE HAIL WILL CONTINUE ACROSS NRN AND CNTRL PORTIONS OF WW 379...PERHAPS EWD INTO CNTRL NEB THROUGH 09-10Z. AN ADDITIONAL WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED ATTM. AS OF 0640Z...REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY INDICATED AN INITIAL BAND OF STRONG TSTMS /LIKELY SLIGHTLY ELEVATED/ FROM ARTHUR/MCPHERSON COUNTIES SWD THROUGH KEITH...PERKINS AND LINCOLN COUNTIES IN NEB MOVING 215/35 KTS. FARTHER TO THE W...A LOWER REFLECTIVITY BOWING LINE EXTENDED FROM WELD AND LOGAN COUNTIES SWD INTO KIT CARSON AND CHEYENNE COUNTIES IN ERN CO...ALSO MOVING ROUGHLY 215/35-40 KTS. DESPITE INFLOW OF UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S DEWPOINTS ALONG SSELY 40-50 KT LLJ INTO THESE CONVECTIVE SYSTEMS...RUC FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT THIS MOISTURE IS RELATIVELY SHALLOW. MOREOVER...RATHER WARM TEMPERATURES IN THE 850-650 MB LAYER ARE RESULTING IN CONSIDERABLE CONVECTIVE INHIBITION DESPITE MUCAPES OF 1000-2000 J/KG. INCREASING MID/HIGH-LEVEL WIND FIELDS AND DEEP-LAYER FORCING FOR ASCENT AHEAD OF NEGATIVELY-TILTED TROUGH LIFTING NEWD THROUGH THE CNTRL ROCKIES SHOULD MAINTAIN ONGOING STORMS NEWD THROUGH WRN INTO CNTRL NEB AND ACROSS NWRN KS EARLY THIS MORNING. MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL AND LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS. SHOULD ONGOING STORMS ORGANIZE A COLD POOL...RESULTING IN A POTENTIALLY MORE WIDESPREAD WIND THREAT...AN ADDITIONAL WW WOULD THEN HAVE TO BE CONSIDERED. ..MEAD.. 05/23/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...GID...LBF...UNR...GLD...BOU...CYS... 40790349 42020325 42990201 42980047 42299931 40949950 39870036 39060107 38620190 38810258  From mcd at goshenarc.org Tue May 23 10:54:05 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Tue, 23 May 2006 06:54:05 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 231051 SWOMCD SPC MCD 231051 NDZ000-231215- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0949 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0551 AM CDT TUE MAY 23 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...N-CNTRL INTO NERN ND CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 231051Z - 231215Z POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED SEVERE HAIL WITH EXIST WITH MOST INTENSE STORMS FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. A WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED. ELEVATED TSTMS CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY THIS MORNING OVER ROLETTE AND TOWNER COUNTIES OF N-CNTRL ND. MESOANALYSIS AND PLAN VIEW VWP/PROFILER DATA INDICATE THAT THIS ACTIVITY IS OCCURRING WITHIN AN AREA OF SURFACE PRESSURE FALLS...INDICATIVE OF STRONG WAA ALONG NOSE OF 40-45 KT SLY LLJ. RUC PROXIMITY SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES COUPLED WITH MOISTENING AROUND 850 MB ARE CONTRIBUTING TO A POTENTIALLY MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS WITH MUCAPES OF 1500-2000 J/KG. LATEST SHORT TERM MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT THE LLJ WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP NEWD THROUGH MID MORNING WITH STRONGEST LOW-LEVEL FORCING FOR ASCENT /VIA WAA AND ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE/ SHIFTING NWD INTO SRN MANITOBA AND WRN ONTARIO. HOWEVER PRIOR TO THIS...ISOLATED SEVERE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS PERSISTING OVER ROLETTE AND TOWNER INTO CAVALIER COUNTIES. ..MEAD.. 05/23/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...FGF...BIS... 49009759 48409767 48229863 48269927 48509967 48759983 48999971  From mcd at goshenarc.org Tue May 23 17:17:25 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Tue, 23 May 2006 13:17:25 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 231714 SWOMCD SPC MCD 231712 NEZ000-SDZ000-KSZ000-231845- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0950 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1212 PM CDT TUE MAY 23 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF CENTRAL AND ERN SD INTO CENTRAL AND ERN NEB CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 231712Z - 231845Z THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP BY 19-20Z ACROSS CENTRAL PORTIONS OF SD AND NEB. WW WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED IN THE NEXT 1 TO 2 HOURS. LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS LOW TO MID 60S DEWPOINTS IN A N-S AXIS ACROSS THE ERN HALVES OF SD AND NEB...AHEAD OF WEAK TROUGH/CONVERGENCE ZONE WITHIN DESTABILIZING WARM SECTOR. STRONG HEATING WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THIS REGION AS MID-LEVEL DRY SLOT CONTINUES SPREADING NEWD -- AHEAD OF CIRCULATION CENTER ALOFT NOW OVER NERN WY/W CENTRAL SD. THOUGH AIRMASS REMAINS CAPPED ATTM...CONTINUED HEATING AND PERSISTENT LARGE-SCALE UVV WILL COMBINE TO WEAKEN CAP...LIKELY RESULTING IN THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT BY MID-AFTERNOON. ALONG WITH INCREASING INSTABILITY...WIND FIELD IS BECOMING MORE FAVORABLE WITH TIME AS STRONGER SWLY FLOW ALOFT SPREADS EWD ATOP LOW-LEVEL SLYS -- RESULTING IN VEERING/SHEARED PROFILES SUPPORTIVE OF SEVERE/SUPERCELL STORMS. THUS...EXPECT DEVELOPING UPDRAFTS TO RAPIDLY INTENSIFY/ACQUIRE ROTATION. THOUGH LOW-LEVEL SHEAR WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF TORNADOES...RELATIVELY DEEP MIXED LAYER SHOULD LIMIT OVERALL TORNADO POTENTIAL. LARGE HAIL SHOULD INITIALLY BE THE PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT...AS CELLULAR CONVECTION IS ANTICIPATED THIS AFTERNOON. WITH A MORE LINEAR CONVECTIVE MODE FORECAST TO EVOLVE WITH TIME...THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS SHOULD ALSO INCREASE. ..GOSS.. 05/23/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...FSD...OAX...TOP...ABR...GID...LBF...UNR... 45259924 45059837 43979709 42629676 40729695 39999759 39929939 41549948 43179980 45360096  From mcd at goshenarc.org Tue May 23 19:30:28 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Tue, 23 May 2006 15:30:28 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 231927 SWOMCD SPC MCD 231925 MNZ000-NDZ000-SDZ000-MTZ000-232130- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0951 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0225 PM CDT TUE MAY 23 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN MT...MUCH OF ND CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 231925Z - 232130Z ISOLATED TSTMS ARE ANTICIPATED TO DEVELOP INVOF SURFACE LOW OVER SERN MT AND ALONG PREFRONTAL TROUGH OVER WCENTRAL ND IN THE NEXT 1-3 HRS. ADDITIONALLY SVR STORMS MAY DEVELOP OUT OF WW 380 INTO ERN ND IN THE NEXT 1-2 HRS. COVERAGE OF SVR MAY BE SUFFICIENTLY HIGH TO WARRANT A WW ISSUANCE...AND AREA WILL CONTINUED TO BE MONITORED FOR THAT POSSIBILITY. 19Z SFC ANALYSIS PLACES A 998 MB SFC LOW OVER SERN MT /NEAR MILES CITY/. A MOIST AXIS WITH DEWPTS IN THE UPPER 50S/LOWER 60S EXTENDED FROM LOW CENTER ESEWD ACROSS ECENTRAL MT INTO NRN/ERN ND. AIRMASS OVER THIS REGION WAS RAPIDLY BECOMING UNCAPPED WITH MUCINH LESS THAN 25 J/KG BASED ON A MODIFIED 18Z GGW SOUNDING. VIS SAT IMAGERY INDICATES CONVECTION WAS BEGINNING TO DEVELOP ALONG PREFRONTAL TROUGH FROM ECENTRAL MT INTO WCENTRAL ND NEAR SFC LOW CENTER. THE STRONGEST CONVERGENCE FOR THE NEXT 1-2 HRS WILL REMAIN JUST AHEAD OF THE PREFRONTAL TROUGH AND INVOF THE SFC LOW CENTER. AS THIS CONVECTION DEVELOPS NEWD INTO THE INSTABILITY AXIS WITH MUCAPES AROUND 2000 J/KG OVER NCENTRAL/NWRN ND AND NERN MT...IT SHOULD INTENSIFY. ALTHOUGH DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL REMAIN MODEST /GIVEN MERIDIONAL MID-HIGH LEVEL FLOW/...COMBINATION OF STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES EVIDENT ON THE 18Z GGW SOUNDING AND DEEPLY MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER WILL SUPPORT THREAT FOR ISOLATED LARGE HAIL/DMGG WIND. ADDITIONALLY ISOLATED SVR STORMS BEGINNING TO DEVELOP IN ERN/CENTRAL SD /WW 380/ MAY MOVE INTO PORTIONS OF ERN ND IN THE NEXT FEW HRS. ..CROSBIE.. 05/23/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...FGF...ABR...BIS...GGW... 49020404 48810512 47200572 46660515 46800362 46660104 46250010 46009980 45869738 46809650 49059734 49000010  From mcd at goshenarc.org Tue May 23 20:03:58 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Tue, 23 May 2006 16:03:58 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 232000 SWOMCD SPC MCD 232000 KSZ000-NEZ000-232200- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0952 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0300 PM CDT TUE MAY 23 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...S CENTRAL NEB/PARTS OF NRN AND CENTRAL KS CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 232000Z - 232200Z SEVERE THREAT IS INCREASING ACROSS S CENTRAL NEB AND SWD INTO PARTS OF KS. NEW WW MAY BE NECESSARY OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR SO. DESPITE PERSISTENT CAP...DEEPENING MIXED LAYER AND INCREASING LARGE-SCALE ASCENT AHEAD OF EJECTING UPPER SHORT-WAVE TROUGH SUGGEST THAT STORMS SHOULD DEVELOP OVER PARTS OF S CENTRAL NEB...AND THEN SWD ACROSS N CENTRAL KS...INVOF COLD FRONT OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. LATEST MCCOOK NEB AND GRENADA PROFILERS INDICATE SWLY MID-LEVEL FLOW IN EXCESS OF 40 KT...WHICH SHOULD SLOWLY SHIFT EWD ATOP INCREASING SLY LOW-LEVEL JET. RESULTING SHEAR WILL SUPPORT A THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS/SUPERCELLS...WITH COVERAGE EXPECTED TO INCREASE THROUGH THE EVENING AS LOW-LEVEL JET/WARM ADVECTION INTENSIFY. IN ADDITION TO LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS ALSO APPEAR LIKELY GIVEN DEEP MIXED LAYER/POTENTIAL FOR EVAPORATIVE COOLING. ..GOSS.. 05/23/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...OAX...TOP...ICT...GID...LBF...DDC...GLD... 41419829 40569715 38679775 37389890 37609975 38690059 40020031 41080039  From mcd at goshenarc.org Tue May 23 20:09:24 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Tue, 23 May 2006 16:09:24 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 232005 SWOMCD SPC MCD 232004 MTZ000-IDZ000-ORZ000-WAZ000-232200- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0953 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0304 PM CDT TUE MAY 23 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN WA...FAR NERN ORE AND THE ID PANHANDLE CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 232004Z - 232200Z TSTMS DEVELOPING OVER THE WRN SLOPES OF THE BLUE MTNS IN NERN ORE/FAR SERN WA SHOULD CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY AND MAY POSE A SVR HAIL THREAT IN THE NEXT FEW HRS. ADDITIONAL STG/ISOLATED SVR STORMS MAY DEVELOP OVER THE MTNS OF NERN WA. ONLY MARGINALLY SVR HAIL IS ANTICIPATED ATTM...AND THUS A WW IS NOT EXPECTED. VIS SAT IMAGERY SHOWS CONVECTION WAS DEVELOPING IN VICINITY OF A SFC LOW OVER NERN ORE. CONVECTIVE INITIATION SEEMS TO BE AIDED BY WLY UPSLOPE FLOW INTO THE BLUE MTNS. ANY OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL DEVELOP NEWD INTO THE ID PANHANDLE. SFC ANALYSIS ALSO PLACES A NARROW CORRIDOR OF HIGHER DEWPTS /LOWER 50S/ ACROSS THE UPPER COLUMBIA RIVER AND SNAKE RIVER VALLEYS OF ERN WA. STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER TROUGH PRESENTLY MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL WA/ORE WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION AND SUPPORT MUCAPES AROUND 1000 J/KG THROUGH THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON. THE MAIN LIMITING FACTOR FOR A GREATER SVR THREAT IS RELATIVELY MARGINAL CLOUD LAYER SHEAR /30 KTS/ PER RECENT VWP AND FCST SOUNDING DATA. ..CROSBIE.. 05/23/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MSO...OTX...PDT... 48861767 48801908 48471917 47781830 47401800 46671757 46201787 45821801 45431728 45821600 46751516 47751589 48871680  From mcd at goshenarc.org Tue May 23 22:08:12 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Tue, 23 May 2006 18:08:12 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 232202 SWOMCD SPC MCD 232201 MNZ000-SDZ000-NDZ000-240000- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0954 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0501 PM CDT TUE MAY 23 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...WCENTRAL/NWRN MN AND PORTIONS OF ERN ND CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 232201Z - 240000Z ISOLATED SVR TSTMS DEVELOPING IN WARM ADVECTION ZONE OVER NERN SD/WCENTRAL MN WILL MOVE NWD INTO NWRN MN/ERN ND OVER THE NEXT 3 HRS. OVERALL SVR THREAT APPEARS MARGINAL THROUGH 00Z AND THUS A WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HRS. AS GREATER MID LEVEL FLOW /AND POTENTIALLY ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE LINE/ APPROACHES LATER THIS EVENING...A WW MAY BE NEEDED AFTER 00Z. LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A WARM/MOIST AXIS EXTENDING NWD FROM WCENTRAL MN INTO NWRN MN/NERN ND. MODERATE INSTABILITY EXISTED IN THIS AREA WITH MLCAPES FROM 1500-2000 J/KG. CONVECTION WAS INCREASING OVER NERN SD/WCENTRAL MN IN AN AREA OF INCREASING WAA ALONG NRN EXTENT OF THE INTENSIFYING LOW LEVEL JET. THIS CONVECTION SHOULD CONTINUE TO DEVELOP NWD INTO THE INSTABILITY AXIS DUE TO PREDOMINANT CLOUD LAYER MERIDIONAL FLOW. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES /7.5 DEG C/KM/ OVER THE REGION WHICH MAY SUPPORT SOME SEVERE HAIL THREAT. HOWEVER...EFFECTIVE SHEAR WAS VERY MARGINAL /25-30 KTS/ DUE TO PRESENCE OF MID-UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS OVER THE AREA. SINCE THESE CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN SO FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HRS...ONLY A MARGINAL SVR THREAT IS ANTICIPATED. ..CROSBIE.. 05/23/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MPX...FGF...ABR... 47029544 47679586 47999674 47599759 47019802 46369787 45729719 45199654 44639599 44769517 45109491 45809489  From mcd at goshenarc.org Tue May 23 22:42:54 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Tue, 23 May 2006 18:42:54 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 232240 SWOMCD SPC MCD 232240 MNZ000-IAZ000-NEZ000-SDZ000-240045- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0955 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0540 PM CDT TUE MAY 23 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS CENTRAL/ERN SD...CENTRAL-ERN NEB...SWRN MN...EXTREME WRN IA. CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 380... VALID 232240Z - 240045Z CONTINUE WW ALONG/AHEAD OF PRIMARY CONVECTIVE BAND...WHICH AT 2220Z WAS INDICATED NEAR A LINE FROM ABR...50 S ONL...EAR. WLY BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS AND DRYING ASSOCIATED WITH COMBINED DRYLINE/FRONT SHOULD REDUCE INSTABILITY...SHEAR AND CONVERGENCE W OF THIS ACTIVITY....MARKEDLY DIMINISHING SVR POTENTIAL. ANOTHER WW MAY BE REQUIRED WITHIN NEXT COUPLE HOURS...E OF THIS ONE ACROSS PORTIONS IA/MN AND/OR REMAINDER ERN NEB. TORNADO POTENTIAL MAY INCREASE LATER THIS EVENING ONCE DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS DROP...WHEN EFFECTIVE PARCELS STILL ARE BASED AT SFC. IN MEANTIME...MAIN THREAT NEXT 1-2 HOURS IS SEVERE DOWNDRAFT WIND...GIVEN LARGE SFC DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS IN INFLOW LAYER AND DEEPLY HEATED/MIXED SUBCLOUD PROFILES. HAIL THREAT OF CONSEQUENCE SHOULD BE ASSOCIATED WITH ANY EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS. MODIFIED 18Z OMA RAOB AND RUC FCST SOUNDINGS INDICATE MLCAPES INCREASING TO AROUND 1500 J/KG NEAR ERN EDGE OF WW IN ASSOCIATION WITH SOMEWHAT MORE ROBUST SFC MOISTURE. VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES ARE STRENGTHENING FROM W-E ACROSS PRE CONVECTIVE AIR MASS AND WILL FAVOR BOTH BOW ECHO AND SUPERCELL PROCESSES. ANY SUSTAINED SUPERCELLS EMBEDDED IN LINE WILL HAVE POTENTIAL TO BECOME SOMEWHAT OUTFLOW DOMINANT AND EVOLVE INTO LEWPS/BOWS. STRONGEST PRESSURE FALLS THIS HOUR EXTEND FROM NERN NEB NWD THROUGH ERN SD...AND SHOULD SHIFT NEWD ACROSS WW AREA....INDICATING POTENTIAL FOR BACKED SFC WINDS AND ENLARGED LOW LEVEL HODOGRAPHS NOW OVER NERN NEB TO SHIFT/EXPAND OVER MORE OF ERN SD. EXPECT EFFECTIVE SHEARS STRENGTHENING TO 40-50 KT AHEAD OF TSTMS...AND 200-300 J/KG SRH IN 0-3 KM LAYER FROM NERN NEB INTO ERN SD. ..EDWARDS.. 05/23/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MPX...FSD...OAX...ABR...GID...LBF... 40939916 42439863 43949841 44789885 45839846 45559655 42949594 41089681  From mcd at goshenarc.org Tue May 23 23:29:44 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Tue, 23 May 2006 19:29:44 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 232325 SWOMCD SPC MCD 232325 NDZ000-MTZ000-240130- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0956 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0625 PM CDT TUE MAY 23 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN MT AND WRN ND CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 382... VALID 232325Z - 240130Z ISOLATED SVR TSTMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE OVER WRN PORTIONS OF WW 382 /ERN MT/ DURING THE NEXT 1-2 HRS. ADDITIONAL ISOLATED SVR STORMS MAY DEVELOP OVER WRN ND IN THE NEXT FEW HRS. HVY RAIN WILL ALSO REMAIN A THREAT ALONG THE WRN EDGE OF WW 382. CONVECTION HAS CONTINUED TO DEVELOP ALONG AN INVERTED TROUGH EXTENDING SFC LOW OVER NRN FALLON COUNTY NWD TO THE CANADIAN BORDER. AS THIS ACTIVITY ROTATES WWD AROUND THE UPPER LOW...IT ENCOUNTERS WEAKER MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES NEAR MID LEVEL DEFORMATION ZONE. CELL TRAINING AND MODEST PW/S WILL FAVOR THE THREAT FOR LOCALLY HVY RAINFALL IN THIS AREA. WHERE THE MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES HAVE ESSENTIALLY REMAINED UNAFFECTED BY PREVIOUS CONVECTION ...THE GREATEST THREAT FOR ISOLATED SEVERE WILL REMAIN NEAR AND JUST WEST THE INVERTED SFC TROUGH OVER FAR ERN MT. FURTHER EAST...MID LEVEL CONVECTION DEVELOPING IN A DEEPLY MIXED ENVIRONMENT OVER SWRN ND MAY BEGIN TO STRENGTHEN AND POSE A MARGINAL DMGG WIND THREAT OVER NWRN ND /ERN PORTION OF WW 382/...AS SLIGHTLY HIGHER INSTABILITY /INCLUDING HIGHER DCAPE/ EXISTS IN THIS AREA. ..CROSBIE.. 05/23/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...BIS...BYZ...GGW... 48940495 48730629 46340595 46500243 49050224  From mcd at goshenarc.org Wed May 24 00:16:56 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Tue, 23 May 2006 20:16:56 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 240012 SWOMCD SPC MCD 240011 NEZ000-KSZ000-240215- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0957 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0711 PM CDT TUE MAY 23 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS S-CENTRAL/SERN NE...N-CENTRAL THROUGH SWRN KS. CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 381... VALID 240011Z - 240215Z SRN END OF NEARLY SOLID LINE OF STRONG-SVR TSTMS -- NEAR NEB BORDER -- WILL CONTINUE MOVING EWD-ENEWD ACROSS NRN PORTIONS WW WITH DAMAGING WIND AND OCCASIONAL HAIL ARE POSSIBLE. VIS IMAGERY...MODIFIED RAOBS AND RUC SOUNDINGS SUGGEST CINH HAS WEAKENED CONSIDERABLY ACROSS PORTIONS SWRN THROUGH N-CENTRAL KS AS SFC COLD FRONT APCHS PREFRONTAL WIND SHIFT/DRYLINE. SVR TSTM POTENTIAL MAY EXTEND SWWD ACROSS PORTIONS SWRN/S-CENTRAL KS DURING NEXT 2-3 HOURS BEFORE SFC DIABATIC COOLING ONCE AGAIN STRENGTHENS CINH. ADDITIONAL OR REPLACEMENT WW MAY BE REQUIRED. DEEP-LAYER VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES SHOULD REMAIN MRGL ACROSS THIS REGION WITH 30-35 KT EFFECTIVE SHEAR IN RUC SOUNDINGS AND 00Z DDC RAOB. HOWEVER...0-3 KM HODOGRAPHS WILL ENLARGE E OF FRONT/DRYLINE AFTER SUNSET WHEN LLJ INCREASES...AND DEEP-LAYER DIRECTIONAL SHEAR INCREASES SWD AND EWD BECAUSE OF MORE WLY MIDLEVEL FLOW COMPONENT. BACKBUILDING ACTIVITY INITIALLY WILL BE HIGH BASED AND OUTFLOW/COLD POOL PRONE BECAUSE OF DEEPLY MIXED SUBCLOUD LAYER...HOWEVER SOME DISCRETE TSTMS MAY DEVELOP ALONG/AHEAD OF DRYLINE AND BECOME SUSTAINED ON NOCTURNAL LLJ. ..EDWARDS.. 05/24/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...OAX...TOP...ICT...GID...DDC...GLD... 37790058 38509988 39719954 40779863 40979643 40009647 39999622 39559624 39409672 39049637 38839648 38859688 38599694 38589788 37450077  From mcd at goshenarc.org Wed May 24 03:14:59 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Tue, 23 May 2006 23:14:59 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 240306 SWOMCD SPC MCD 240306 MNZ000-IAZ000-MOZ000-NEZ000-KSZ000-SDZ000-NDZ000-240500- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0958 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1006 PM CDT TUE MAY 23 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS SWRN-CENTRAL-NERN KS...SERN TO EXTREME E-CENTRAL NEB...EXTREME NWRN MO...WRN-CENTRAL IA...WRN-CENTRAL MN...EXTREME E-CENTRAL ND. CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 383...384... VALID 240306Z - 240500Z LINE OF TSTMS -- CONTAINING INTERMITTENT BOW/LEWP FORMATIONS AND RESPONSIBLE FOR NUMEROUS REPORTS OF DAMAGING WIND AND HAIL DURING LAST 2-3 HOURS -- IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MOVING EWD ACROSS DISCUSSION AREA THROUGH REMAINDER LATE EVENING HOURS. PRIND CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION HAS PEAKED...PARTICULARLY FOR NRN PART OVER MN/ERN ND...WHERE TSTMS WILL MOVE INTO ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY WEAKER BUOYANCY. HOWEVER...ENOUGH SVR POTENTIAL MAY REMAIN TO WARRANT ADDITIONAL WW ISSUANCE OVER PORTIONS NERN KS...NWRN MO AND/OR WRN/CENTRAL IA. FOR NEXT 2-3 HOURS...DAMAGING GUST POTENTIAL SHOULD PERSIST...PARTICULARLY WITH LEWP FEATURES SUCH AS THOSE MOVING ACROSS LNK AREA AS OF 3Z. AIR MASS OVER MOST OF AREA SHOULD BE CHARACTERIZED BY STRONG LOW LEVEL SHEAR...MLCAPES AROUND 1000 J/KG AND RELATIVELY WELL MIXED SUBCLOUD LAYERS -- ABOVE SHALLOW LAYER OF SFC COOLING. MLCAPES/MUCAPES SHOULD BE SOMEWHAT LARGER ACROSS WRN/CENTRAL IA INVOF LOW LEVEL MOIST AXIS...EVIDENT AT SFC AND ON ANALYZED 00Z 850/925 MB CHARTS. EFFECTIVE INFLOW PARCELS SHOULD BECOME MORE ELEVATED WITH TIME AND WITH EWD EXTENT ACROSS MN/IA...BUT WITH SUFFICIENT ELEVATED MUCAPE TO SUSTAIN TSTM POTENTIAL. THEREFORE...WHILE TSTMS MAY PERSIST...OVERALL SEVERE POTENTIAL SHOULD DIMINISH GRADUALLY BY APPROXIMATELY 6Z. ..EDWARDS.. 05/24/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...DLH...MPX...DMX...EAX...FGF...FSD...OAX...TOP...ICT...ABR...GID...DDC... 37520023 38229920 39649776 41609657 43249629 43899706 44419616 45319624 46369608 47239767 47769515 46959390 45379406 43919431 42149429 40569492 39999533 37739773 37389890  From mcd at goshenarc.org Wed May 24 06:59:51 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Wed, 24 May 2006 02:59:51 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 240657 SWOMCD SPC MCD 240656 MOZ000-IAZ000-KSZ000-NEZ000-240830- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0959 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0156 AM CDT WED MAY 24 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...S-CNTRL IA INTO NWRN MO AND ERN KS CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 240656Z - 240830Z POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL WILL EXIST WITH MOST INTENSE STORMS EARLY THIS MORNING. A NEW WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED ATTM. AS OF 0640Z...REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY SHOWED AN MCS ORGANIZED ALONG A COLD POOL FROM NEAR DSM SWWD TO APPROXIMATELY 35 NE STJ MOVING GENERALLY EWD AT 35 KTS. MESOANALYSIS SUGGESTS THAT NRN PORTION OF THIS COMPLEX IS REACHING EFFECTIVE WARM FRONT /EXTENDING FROM N-CNTRL IA SSEWD THROUGH ERN MO/...DELINEATING THE ERN EDGE OF PRIMARY INSTABILITY AXIS. THEREFORE...EXPECT ONGOING STORMS ALONG AND N OF THE I-80 CORRIDOR TO WEAKEN AS THEY PROGRESS E OF A I-35 LONGITUDE. FARTHER TO THE SW...MORE DISCRETE STORM DEVELOPMENT HAS OCCURRED WITHIN THE PAST HOUR OVER FAR NERN KS /E OF TOP/...PRESUMABLY ALONG SRN FRINGE OF STRONGER HEIGHT FALLS ASSOCIATED WITH EVOLVING UPPER LOW OVER THE DAKOTAS. 40-50 KT SSWLY LLJ IS MAINTAINING AN INFLUX OF 60-65 F DEWPOINTS INTO THIS REGION...THOUGH RUC FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT CAPPING INVERSION OBSERVED ON THE 24/00Z TOP SOUNDING STILL EXISTS TO SOME DEGREE IN THE 850-650 MB LAYER. THEREFORE...DESPITE RELATIVELY STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR /PER LATHROP MO PROFILER/ AND MUCAPES OF 1000-2000 J/KG...THE REMAINING CAP MAY TEND TO LIMIT STORM ORGANIZATION/INTENSITY. AN ADDITIONAL WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED...THOUGH CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED. ..MEAD.. 05/24/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...SGF...DMX...EAX...OAX...TOP...ICT... 37859751 39089654 40339491 40919390 40679328 40009292 38699401 37899518 37649623 37549675  From mcd at goshenarc.org Wed May 24 16:37:49 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Wed, 24 May 2006 12:37:49 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 241627 SWOMCD SPC MCD 241627 ILZ000-IAZ000-MOZ000-241830- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0960 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1127 AM CDT WED MAY 24 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL/NE MO INTO PARTS OF SRN IA...PARTS OF WRN IL CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 241627Z - 241830Z TIMING OF MORE SUBSTANTIAL INCREASE IN SEVERE THREAT IS STILL A BIT UNCERTAIN...BUT TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF A WW. BOUNDARY LAYER CONTINUES TO MOISTEN ON SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW... ACROSS THE OZARK PLATEAU/LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY INTO PARTS OF THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. DEW POINTS ARE NOW IN THE MID/UPPER 60S ACROSS MUCH OF WESTERN MISSOURI INTO SOUTHERN IOWA...WHERE MIXED LAYER CAPE IS BECOMING MAXIMIZED BENEATH NORTHEASTERN PERIPHERY OF ELEVATED MIXED LAYER WHICH HAS ADVECTED OFF THE MEXICAN PLATEAU REGION. THIS IS STILL PROVIDING SUBSTANTIAL INHIBITION...BUT AN AREA OF STRONGER MID/UPPER FORCING FOR UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION...TO THE SOUTHEAST OF NORTHERN PLAINS CLOSED LOW...APPEARS TO BE SHIFTING EAST NORTHEAST OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS. MODELS GENERALLY SUGGEST THIS WILL PROVIDE SUFFICIENT MID-LEVEL COOLING/LIFT TO WEAKEN CAP...AND SUPPORT INCREASING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL/NORTHEAST MISSOURI INTO SOUTHERN IOWA...LIKELY BY 20-21Z...PERHAPS AS EARLY AS 18-19Z. INITIATION MAY ALREADY BE UNDERWAY EAST OF KANSAS CITY. THIS SEEMS LIKELY TO BE BASED ABOVE LINGER RADIATIONAL INVERSION...BUT WITH CONTINUED HEATING...STORMS WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY BASED IN BOUNDARY LAYER WITH CAPE IN EXCESS OF 2000 J/KG. SHEAR PROFILES BENEATH MODERATELY STRONG CYCLONIC MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF ISOLATED SUPERCELLS WITH INITIAL ACTIVITY...BEFORE CONSOLIDATION INTO LARGER CONVECTIVE SYSTEM OCCURS LATER THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. LARGE HAIL WILL ACCOMPANY STRONGER STORMS THROUGH MID AFTERNOON...WITH A RISK FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. GIVEN FAVORABLE LOW-LEVEL THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES... LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPHS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES IN LONGER LIVED SUPERCELLS. ..KERR.. 05/24/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LSX...DVN...SGF...DMX...EAX... 39519422 40139394 40979313 41849265 41969184 41249099 40249104 39159166 38679222 38619303 38779383 38959425 39209415  From mcd at goshenarc.org Wed May 24 18:32:49 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Wed, 24 May 2006 14:32:49 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 241830 SWOMCD SPC MCD 241829 MOZ000-ILZ000-ARZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-242030- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0961 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0129 PM CDT WED MAY 24 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTHERN MISSOURI CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 241829Z - 242030Z STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE OVER SOUTHERN MISSOURI THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS THE MAIN THREAT. A WW MAY BE REQUIRED LATER THIS AFTERNOON...POSSIBLY BY 19-21Z. CURRENT MESOANALYSIS INDICATES MLCAPE VALUES IN SOUTHERN MISSOURI TO BE APPROACHING 2000 J/KG AND THE AIRMASS IS NOW MODERATELY UNSTABLE. THE AREA IS STILL CAPPED WITH SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW 80S F...BUT AS DAYTIME HEATING CONTINUES INTO THE LOW 90S F...THE CAP IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH...ALLOWING FOR STORMS TO DEVELOP IN WHAT WILL BE A VERY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH MUCAPE VALUES APPROACHING 3500 J/KG BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. THE VERTICAL SHEAR STRUCTURE IS FAIRLY UNIDIRECTIONAL...HOWEVER...SPEED SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH A MID-LEVEL JET OF 35-50 KTS OVER THE AREA SUGGESTS STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP COULD HAVE SOME ORGANIZATION...WITH THE MAIN CONVECTIVE MODE LIKELY TO BE MULTICELLULAR. LOCALIZED LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS ARE EXPECTED WITH STRONGER STORMS. ..LEVIT.. 05/24/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...PAH...LSX...LZK...SGF...EAX...TSA... 38209461 38339386 38409257 38449100 38169022 37819000 37359006 36639050 36499204 36529334 36569457 37109466 37809466  From mcd at goshenarc.org Wed May 24 18:40:23 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Wed, 24 May 2006 14:40:23 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 241837 SWOMCD SPC MCD 241837 WIZ000-ILZ000-IAZ000-MNZ000-242000- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0962 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0137 PM CDT WED MAY 24 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...WRN WI...ERN IA...NRN IL CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 241837Z - 242000Z TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF ONE OR MORE WWS. NARROWING TONGUE OF MOISTURE EAST OF OCCLUDED SURFACE LOW IS BECOMING FOCUS FOR DESTABILIZATION ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE STILL FAIRLY STEEP ALONG AN AXIS ACROSS EASTERN IOWA INTO PARTS OF WESTERN IOWA...WHERE SURFACE HEATING IS CONTRIBUTING TO INCREASING BOUNDARY LAYER BASED INSTABILITY. MIXED LAYER CAPE IS ALREADY IN EXCESS OF 1000 J/KG... AND COULD...AT LEAST LOCALLY...APPROACH 2000 J/KG BY LATE AFTERNOON. UNCERTAINTY EXISTS...BUT MID-LEVEL SUBSIDENCE MAY BE INHIBITIVE OF VIGOROUS DEEP CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IN THE SHORT TERM. HOWEVER ...AS THE CLOSED LOW CONTINUES TO SHIFT EAST OF THE DAKOTAS... INCREASED MID/UPPER FORCING SEEMS LIKELY TO SUPPORT AT LEAST SCATTERED STORMS BY 21-22Z...IF NOT BEFORE. AS ACTIVITY FORMS...MODERATELY SHEARED REGIME IN EXIT REGION OF MID-LEVEL JET STREAK PROGRESSING THROUGH THE MID MISSOURI VALLEY WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR UPDRAFT ROTATION. ISOLATED SUPERCELLS ARE POSSIBLE...WITH ENHANCED RISK FOR LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS... POSSIBLY ISOLATED TORNADOES. ..KERR.. 05/24/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...GRB...LOT...MKX...DVN...DLH...ARX...MPX...DMX... 45889286 46049131 45418971 44718931 43208926 41708967 41269031 41259193 41469243 42799163 44899147  From mcd at goshenarc.org Wed May 24 19:26:23 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Wed, 24 May 2006 15:26:23 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 241923 SWOMCD SPC MCD 241923 ILZ000-MOZ000-242100- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0963 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0223 PM CDT WED MAY 24 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...MO...IL CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 385... VALID 241923Z - 242100Z CONTINUE WW. ADDITIONAL WW/S/ WILL BE NEEDED TO THE EAST BY LATE AFTERNOON. AREA OF STRONGER MID/UPPER FORCING CONTINUES TO DEVELOP EASTWARD THROUGH THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...WELL TO THE SOUTHEAST OF MAIN CLOSED LOW. THIS IS SUPPORTING ONGOING INCREASING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT...ROUGHLY CENTERED NEAR THE QUINCY/HANNIBAL AREA. ACTIVITY MAY NOT BE COMPLETELY SURFACE-BASED JUST YET...BUT SHOULD BECOME SO SHORTLY...WITH ADDITIONAL HEATING AND FORCING ALONG CONVECTIVE OUTFLOWS. EMBEDDED WITHIN MOIST AIR MASS WITH MIXED LAYER CAPE OF 2000 TO 3000 J/KG...WHICH HAS NOW SPREAD THROUGH MUCH OF ILLINOIS...EVOLUTION OF GROWING/EXPANDING CONVECTIVE CLUSTER NOW SEEMS LIKELY TO OCCUR FAIRLY QUICKLY. PORTIONS OF EVOLVING CONVECTIVE SYSTEM WILL PROBABLY BEGIN DEVELOPING EAST OF WW 385...INTO THE SPRINGFIELD/DECATUR AREAS OF CENTRAL ILLINOIS...AND AREAS NEAR/NORTHWEST OF ST. LOUIS BY 21Z. LARGE HAIL...ISOLATED TORNADOES REMAIN MAIN THREAT NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS...BUT DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL SHOULD INCREASE TOWARD 25/00Z. ..KERR.. 05/24/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...PAH...ILX...LSX...DVN...SGF...EAX... 39159252 40749006 40038781 38698787 38018918 38329101 38039260 38459350  From mcd at goshenarc.org Wed May 24 21:30:13 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Wed, 24 May 2006 17:30:13 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 242126 SWOMCD SPC MCD 242126 INZ000-MIZ000-ILZ000-242300- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0964 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0426 PM CDT WED MAY 24 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...IND/IL CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 387... VALID 242126Z - 242300Z A LARGE CLUSTER OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EWD AND SHOULD BEGIN TO AFFECT WRN IND BY EARLY EVENING. THE SEVERE THREAT SHOULD EXPAND EWD OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AND A WW WILL BE ISSUED SHORTLY ACROSS PARTS OF IND. LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A COLD FRONT EXTENDING SSWWD FROM ERN IA ACROSS NRN MO WITH A WARM FRONT LOCATED FROM SRN WI SSEWD INTO WRN IND. THE WARM SECTOR IS CHARACTERIZED BY MODERATE INSTABILITY AND SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S F. AS THE WARM FRONT MOVES EWD...INSTABILITY SHOULD INCREASE ACROSS IND SUSTAINING THE MCS EARLY THIS EVENING. IN ADDITION...MODERATE VERTICAL SHEAR IN PLACE SHOULD SUSTAIN A SUPERCELL THREAT WITH LARGE HAIL AND WIND DAMAGE LIKELY WITH THE STRONGER STORMS. AN ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY AS THE LOW-LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS EARLY THIS EVENING ACROSS THE REGION. ..BROYLES.. 05/24/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LMK...IWX...IND...PAH...LOT...ILX...LSX... 38778880 39428943 40718917 41928831 42198704 41798551 40838498 39618540 38738633 38498765  From mcd at goshenarc.org Wed May 24 23:27:44 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Wed, 24 May 2006 19:27:44 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 242325 SWOMCD SPC MCD 242324 WIZ000-ILZ000-250100- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0966 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0624 PM CDT WED MAY 24 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN WI...FAR NE IL...WRN LAKE MICHIGAN CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 242324Z - 250100Z THE SEVERE THREAT SHOULD INCREASE ACROSS ERN WI...FAR NE IL AND WRN LAKE MICHIGAN OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS A LINE MOVES IN FROM THE WEST. A WW SHOULD BECOME NECESSARY EARLY THIS EVENING ACROSS THE REGION. A LINEAR MCS IS CURRENTLY ONGOING IN SCNTRL WI AND SHOULD CONTINUE MOVING EWD...AFFECTING THE WRN SHORELINE OF LAKE MICHIGAN LATER THIS EVENING. THE AIRMASS AHEAD OF THE LINE IS MODERATELY UNSTABLE SUGGESTING THE LINE SHOULD CONTINUE TO BE SUSTAINED THROUGH THE EVENING. IN ADDITION...OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS SHOWS A 50 KT MID-LEVEL JET NOSING INTO THE REGION FROM THE SOUTHWEST WHICH IS ENHANCING VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES. REGIONAL WSR-88D VWPS SHOW 40-45 KT OF 0-6 KM SHEAR SUGGESTING SUPERCELLS WILL CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE EMBEDDED IN THE LINE. ALTHOUGH SOME WEAKENING OF THE LINE MAY OCCUR AS THE LINE APPROACHES THE MORE STABLE AIR OVER WRN LAKE MICHIGAN...LARGE HAIL AND WIND DAMAGE MAY CONTINUE WITH THE STRONGER CELLS UNTIL THE LINE MOVES OFFSHORE. ..BROYLES.. 05/24/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...GRB...LOT...MKX... 42228819 42508906 42938943 43748954 44458943 44858886 44998816 44798728 44548691 43828658 43018663 42468719  From mcd at goshenarc.org Thu May 25 01:26:32 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Wed, 24 May 2006 21:26:32 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 250125 SWOMCD SPC MCD 250125 OKZ000-KSZ000-250300- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0967 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0825 PM CDT WED MAY 24 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...OK CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 250125Z - 250300Z ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT MAY OCCUR LATE THIS EVENING ACROSS NRN AND WRN OK WITH A POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. HOWEVER...STORM COVERAGE SHOULD REMAIN TOO ISOLATED TO WARRANT A WW. A MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIRMASS IS CURRENTLY IN PLACE ACROSS OK AND NORTH TX WHERE MLCAPE VALUES RANGE FROM 2000 TO 2500 J/KG. OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS CURRENTLY SHOWS A WEAK CAPPING INVERSION PRESENT WITH SEVERAL WEAKNESSES IN THE CAP OVER NCNTRL OK AND NEAR THE RED RIVER IN NW TX. AS THE CUMULUS CONTINUES TO TOWER...A FEW STORMS MAY INITIATE BUT SHOULD REMAIN VERY ISOLATED DUE TO THE LACK OF LARGE-SCALE ASCENT ACROSS THE REGION. THE MOST LIKELY POINT OF INITIATION APPEARS TO BE IN NRN OK NEAR A COLD FRONT. ALTHOUGH REGIONAL PROFILERS SHOW ABOUT 30 KT OF VERTICAL SHEAR...THE MODERATE TO STRONG INSTABILITY IN PLACE SUGGESTS SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT WILL BE LIKELY UPON INITIATION. STEEP LAPSE RATES SHOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR HAIL AND/OR ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WITH ANY STORM THAT DEVELOPS. ..BROYLES.. 05/25/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...TSA...ICT...OUN... 37019704 36779656 36379652 35839696 35279803 34949898 35129963 35569986 36239964 36919880 37029768  From mcd at goshenarc.org Thu May 25 02:01:14 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Wed, 24 May 2006 22:01:14 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 250159 SWOMCD SPC MCD 250159 KYZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-250330- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0968 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0859 PM CDT WED MAY 24 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...FAR SRN IND AND NRN KY CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 390... VALID 250159Z - 250330Z A BOW ECHO WILL CONTINUE EWD ACROSS FAR SRN IND AND INTO NRN KY WITH A POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE AND HAIL. THE THREAT MAY EXTEND AS FAR EAST AS LOUISVILLE BUT WEAKENING OF THE LINE IS ANTICIPATED AS THE LINE MOVES EWD INTO DECREASING INSTABILITY. LATEST SFC ANALYSIS CURRENTLY SHOWS A WARM FRONT EXTENDING SWD ACROSS WRN IND INTO WRN KY. MODERATE INSTABILITY IS LOCATED WEST OF THE FRONT WITH A TIGHT INSTABILITY GRADIENT PRESENT ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THE LINEAR MCS IS MOVING EWD ALONG THE INSTABILITY GRADIENT WITH A 50 KT MID-LEVEL JET LOCATED JUST BEHIND THE MCS. THE UPPER-SYSTEM ASSOCIATED WITH THE JET IS ENHANCING LIFT AND SHEAR WHICH MAY SUSTAIN THE SEVERE THREAT WITH THE MCS FOR ANOTHER HOUR OR SO. HOWEVER...AS THE LINEAR MCS MOVES INTO WEAKENING INSTABILITY ACROSS NRN KY AND SERN IND...THE SEVERE THREAT SHOULD BEGIN TO DIMINISH ACROSS THE REGION. ..BROYLES.. 05/25/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...ILN...LMK...IND...PAH...ILX... 37458531 37368758 38018819 38568802 38828725 38838574 38488498 37818492  From mcd at goshenarc.org Fri May 26 03:20:17 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Thu, 25 May 2006 23:20:17 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 260317 SWOMCD SPC MCD 260317 MOZ000-ARZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-260515- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0980 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1017 PM CDT THU MAY 25 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...SRN KS / NRN OK / SWRN MO / NWRN AR CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 396...399... VALID 260317Z - 260515Z SEVERE THREAT WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE NIGHT...WITH WIND AND HAIL ACROSS KS/OK. AN ISOLATED TORNADO MAY OCCUR WITH ACTIVITY OVER SWRN MO / NWRN AR. ADDITIONAL WATCHES MAY BE REQUIRED. SWLY LOW LEVEL JET WILL HELP ADVECT UNSTABLE AIR NWD ALONG WARM FRONT FROM SRN KS/NRN OK INTO SWRN MO/NWRN AR. THIS WILL ALLOW STORMS OVER SRN KS TO PERSIST AND PERHAPS BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED AS THEY PROPAGATE EWD...AND EVENTUALLY SEWD INTO NERN OK DUE TO STRONGER NWLY FLOW ALOFT. DAMAGING WINDS AND SOME HAIL WOULD OCCUR. FARTHER E...CLUSTER OF SUPERCELLS WILL PERSIST OVER SWRN MO INTO NWRN AR...BEING FED HIGH THETA-E AIR ON VEERING LOW LEVEL JET. AREA PROFILERS SHOW FAVORABLE SHEAR FOR CONTINUED ROTATION WITHIN THE STRONGER STORMS WITH THE THREAT OF AN ISOLATED TORNADO. ..JEWELL.. 05/26/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...PAH...MEG...LSX...LZK...SGF...TSA...TOP...ICT...OUN...DDC...AMA... 36489991 37240062 38739971 38769847 38229621 37599289 37239064 35969163 35809416 36309855  From mcd at goshenarc.org Fri May 26 06:14:30 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Fri, 26 May 2006 02:14:30 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 260611 SWOMCD SPC MCD 260611 VAZ000-NCZ000-WVZ000-TNZ000-KYZ000-260745- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0981 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0111 AM CDT FRI MAY 26 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS NERN TN...NWRN NC...S-CENTRAL/SWRN VA...EXTREME SRN WV...EXTREME SERN KY. CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 398... VALID 260611Z - 260745Z REMAINDER WW SHOULD BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AS SCHEDULED AT 7Z. SVR POTENTIAL IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH WITH TIME WITH ANY CONVECTION STILL LINGERING IN WW BY THEN...THOUGH MRGL WIND/HAIL THREAT MAY SHIFT/DEVELOP SEWD ACROSS PORTIONS NERN TN...EXTREME NWRN NC AND WRN VA. ADDITIONAL WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED ATTM FOR THIS REGION. PRIMARY BAND OF CONVECTION NOW EXITING ERN KY SHOULD MOVE ACROSS PORTIONS EXTREME SWRN VA AND NWRN TN. GENERAL WARMING TREND IS NOTED IN CLOUD TOPS ON IR IMAGERY. THIS ACTIVITY MAY REACH EXTREME NWRN NC ALSO...BUT PROBABILITIES FOR SEVERE IN SUCH AN EVENT APPEARS SMALL BECAUSE OF OUTFLOW AIR FROM ACTIVITY FARTHER E. MEANWHILE...OCCASIONAL STG OR MRGLLY SVR GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY ON HIGHER/EXPOSED W FACES OF RIDGES. ADDITIONAL MULTICELLULAR TSTMS W AND N CSV MAY BRIEFLY INTENSIFY UPON INTERACTING WITH OUTFLOW FROM ERN KY BAND...BUT SVR POTENTIAL APPEARS POORLY ORGANIZED ATTM. SCATTERED TSTMS OVER WRN VA ALREADY HAVE PRODUCED OUTFLOW BOUNDARY -- EVIDENT IN REFLECTIVITY ANIMATIONS -- THAT IS MOVING SEWD TOWARD VA/NC BORDER W DAN. TSTMS IN THIS REGION SHOULD REMAIN OUTFLOW DOMINANT. HOWEVER...GENERAL DECREASE IN POTENTIAL STRENGTH OF SFC GUSTS IS EXPECTED BECAUSE OF STABILIZING EFFECTS OF DEEPENING LAYER OF DIABATICALLY COOLED AIR NEAR SFC. ELEVATED MUCAPES DECREASE FROM AROUND 1500 J/KG OVER E-CENTRAL TN TO LESS THAN 500 J/KG IN SWRN VA. ..EDWARDS.. 05/26/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...AKQ...RAH...RNK...RLX...GSP...MRX...JKL... 36878444 37438286 37398229 37248136 37197853 36507908 36398013 36148285 35868396 36548447  From mcd at goshenarc.org Fri May 26 07:14:51 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Fri, 26 May 2006 03:14:51 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 260712 SWOMCD SPC MCD 260712 KSZ000-OKZ000-260845- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0982 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0212 AM CDT FRI MAY 26 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS SRN KS AND NRN OK. CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 399... VALID 260712Z - 260845Z PRIND REMAINDER WW WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 8Z AS SCHEDULED. ADDITIONAL WW MAY NOT BE NECESSARY BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR. ISOLATED/MRGL SVR HAIL AND STRONG GUSTS MAY CONTINUE WITH SOME CONVECTION ACROSS THIS REGION...HOWEVER POTENTIAL FOR ORGANIZED SEVERE HAS DIMINISHED CONSIDERABLY NOW THAT BULK OF TSTM COMPLEX IS LOCATED WELL BEHIND ITS OWN GUST FRONT...AND IS LIKELY TO REMAIN SO. REFLECTIVITY ANIMATIONS AS OF 7Z SHOW OUTFLOW ARC EXTENDING FROM ERN PORTIONS BUTLER/COWLEY COUNTIES KS SWWD ACROSS SRN KAY...NWRN NOBLE AND NRN GARFIELD COUNTIES OK. GUSTS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS OUTFLOW HAVE BEEN BELOW 50 KT SVR CRITERIA AT ASOS AND OK MESONET STATIONS...AND SHOULD REMAIN SO AS GUST FRONT SURGES FARTHER EWD AND SWD AWAY FROM PARENT CONVECTION. ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY WITH HAIL POTENTIAL MAY DEVELOP ATOP OUTFLOW POOL...ACROSS KS/OK BORDER REGION FROM COMANCHE/WOODS COUNTY LINE EWD. THESE TSTMS WOULD BE SUPPORTED BY ELEVATED LOW LEVEL WAA AND DESTABILIZATION ASSOCIATED WITH 30-40 KT LLJ...EVIDENT IN VCI PROFILER DATA. MUCAPES AOA 3000 J/KG MAY REMAIN INVOF DECELERATING CENTRAL PORTIONS OUTFLOW BOUNDARY OVER N-CENTRAL OK...WEAKENING TO 1000-1500 J/KG N OF BOUNDARY OVER SW KS. LLJ IS FCST TO VEER SOMEWHAT AND REMAIN STRONGEST ACROSS NW OK...WEAKENING WITH EWD EXTENT. STRONGER STORM-RELATIVE INFLOW WITH WWD EXTENT WOULD FAVOR NEWER ACTIVITY ALONG AND W OF WRN PORTION OF MCS...AS OPPOSED TO TSTMS ASSOCIATED WITH REMNANTS OF ORIGINAL MCS. ..EDWARDS.. 05/26/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...TSA...TOP...ICT...OUN...DDC... 37089925 37329912 37319838 37519759 37879718 38389711 38579682 38299624 37219604 36609632 36209717 36179828 36419942 37009927  From mcd at goshenarc.org Fri May 26 08:26:02 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Fri, 26 May 2006 04:26:02 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 260816 SWOMCD SPC MCD 260816 ARZ000-MOZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-261015- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0983 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0316 AM CDT FRI MAY 26 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS SWRN MO...NWRN AR...NERN OK...SERN KS. CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 400... VALID 260816Z - 261015Z PRIMARY THREAT HAS BEEN AND WILL CONTINUE TO BE HEAVY RAIN RATES LOCALLY 2-3 INCHES/HOUR...AS SLOW MOVING TSTMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP/TRAIN OVER SOME OF SAME AREAS OF NEWTON/JASPER COUNTIES...WITH SOME OF LAWRENCE/MCDONALD COUNTIES POSSIBLY BEING AFFECTED AS WELL. SVR POTENTIAL APPEARS CONFINED TO MRGL HAIL...WITH OCCASIONAL STRONG GUSTS POSSIBLE. BECAUSE OF ISOLATED NATURE AND SMALL COVERAGE OF ANY REMAINING SVR THREAT...BULK OF WW SHOULD BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AS SCHEDULED AT 10Z...ALTHOUGH IT MAY BE LOCALLY EXTENDED FOR 1-2 HOURS ON A COUNTY BY COUNTY BASIS IF NECESSARY. REFLECTIVITY LOOPS AND MESOANALYSIS SHOWS OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ASSOCIATED WITH SWRN MO CONVECTION MOVING WWD ACROSS PORTIONS CRAIG COUNTY OK...AND LARGER/STRONGER OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM KS/OK BORDER MCS CONTINUING TO SURGE EWD ACROSS OSAGE/WASHINGTON COUNTIES. ADDITIONAL TSTMS MAY DEVELOP DURING OR SHORTLY AFTER COLLISION OF THESE BOUNDARIES...WHICH SHOULD OCCUR AT 830-845Z OVER ERN NOWATA/WRN CRAIG COUNTIES OK AND MONTGOMERY COUNTY KS. 25-30 KT LOW LEVEL FLOW JUST ABOVE SFC -- AS EVIDENT IN HKL PROFILER -- SHOULD HELP TO MAINTAIN FAVORABLE STORM RELATIVE INFLOW AMIDST RICH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...WITH 850 MB DEW POINTS 11-15C IN RUC SOUNDINGS AND PW 1.1-1.4 INCH FROM GPS DATA. ELEVATED MUCAPES 2000-3000 J/KG MAY SUPPORT POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT FARTHER NE ACROSS SERN KS AS WELL. MAIN THREAT WOULD BE MRGL HAIL....WITH EFFECTIVE BULK SHEARS ONLY 20-30 KT. ..EDWARDS.. 05/26/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...SGF...TSA...ICT... 37879574 37599426 36729352 36339388 35889532 36149660 37139593  From mcd at goshenarc.org Fri May 26 09:01:13 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Fri, 26 May 2006 05:01:13 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 260857 SWOMCD SPC MCD 260857 TNZ000-GAZ000-ALZ000-MSZ000-261030- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0984 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0357 AM CDT FRI MAY 26 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS SRN TN...EXTREME NRN AL...EXTREME N-CENTRAL/NERN MS. CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 401... VALID 260857Z - 261030Z BULK OF REMAINDER OF WW MAY BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AS SCHEDULED AT 10Z...WITH 1-2 HOUR LOCAL EXTENSION OPTION AVAILABLE IF NECESSARY. TSTMS ARE EVIDENT ALONG/BEHIND MUCH OF OUTFLOW BOUNDARY THAT IS MOVING SEWD/SWD THROUGH AREA BETWEEN CHA-CSV...AND ACROSS NRN AL AND SWRN TN. IR CLOUD TOPS HAVE WARMED AND REFLECTIVELY HAS WEAKENED OVERALL WITH MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY...EXCEPT FOR STRONG-SEVERE LINE SEGMENT NOW MOVING SSEWD ACROSS SWRN TN TOWARD MS BORDER. THIS ACTIVITY HAS BEST ACCESS TO WLY 20-30 KT LLJ AND ASSOCIATED PLUME OF MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND LOW LEVEL WAA. EXPECT ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AND GUSTS NEAR SEVERE LEVELS AS THIS CONVECTION MOVES BASICALLY SWD...WHEN COMBINING SEWD TRANSLATIONAL AND SWWD PROPAGATIONAL MCS MOTION VECTOR COMPONENTS. HOWEVER...ORGANIZATION WILL BE LIMITED...WITH DEEP-LAYER SHEAR AND ELEVATED MUCAPE DIMINISHING WITH SWD EXTENT THROUGH NRN/CENTRAL MS. ..EDWARDS.. 05/26/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MRX...FFC...OHX...HUN...MEG... 34838994 35498979 35768954 35678902 35098764 35608498 34728581 34288953  From mcd at goshenarc.org Fri May 26 10:33:23 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Fri, 26 May 2006 06:33:23 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 261031 SWOMCD SPC MCD 261031 KSZ000-NEZ000-COZ000-261300- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0985 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0531 AM CDT FRI MAY 26 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS SWRN/S-CENTRAL NEB...CENTRAL/N-CENTRAL/NWRN KS. CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 261031Z - 261300Z OCCASIONAL HAIL IS POSSIBLE THROUGH AT LEAST 13Z FROM ACTIVITY STRENGTHENING IN SWATH FROM SWRN NEB SEWD ACROSS PORTIONS NWRN/N-CENTRAL KS...AS THIS ACTIVITY SHIFTS EWD ON BOTH SIDES OF KS/NEB BORDER. MRGLLY SVR HAIL IS POSSIBLE...BUT ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN TOO DISORGANIZED TO WARRANT WW. THERMODYNAMICALLY...NARROW CORRIDOR OF FAVORABLE AIR MASS IS EVIDENT ABOVE SFC IN RUC SOUNDINGS...IN ASSOCIATION WITH 30-40 KT SELY LLJ SHOWN BY VWP/PROFILERS AND RELATED MOISTURE INCREASE NOTED IN ANIMATIONS OF GPS PW DATA. ELEVATED MUCAPES 500-1000 J/KG ARE ROOTED INVOF 700 MB LEVEL...IN NW-SE BAND ALIGNED ROUGHLY FROM LBF-SLN. THIS CORRIDOR REPRESENTS LOW-MIDLEVEL WARM FRONTAL ZONE AND MAY DRIFT EWD WITH TIME...BUT NOT AS FAST AS CONVECTIVE MOTIONS. WITH WEAKENING OF BOTH LLJ AND AVAILABLE BUOYANCY...CONVECTION IS FCST TO DIMINISH WITHIN 2-3 HOURS AFTER SUNRISE. ..EDWARDS.. 05/26/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...TOP...ICT...GID...LBF...DDC...GLD...BOU... 38109795 39570011 40420144 40970206 41350205 41570046 39009646 38419634 38059769  From mcd at goshenarc.org Fri May 26 15:47:46 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Fri, 26 May 2006 11:47:46 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 261542 SWOMCD SPC MCD 261542 VAZ000-PAZ000-MDZ000-WVZ000-NCZ000-TNZ000-261745- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0986 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1042 AM CDT FRI MAY 26 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...THE CNTRL APPALACHIANS CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 261542Z - 261745Z A WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED IN THE NEAR TERM...BUT CONVECTIVE TRENDS/ POTENTIAL IS BEING MONITORED. WEAKENING UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO SLOWLY SHIFT EASTWARD INTO/ THROUGH THE LOWER GREAT LAKES/OHIO VALLEY REGION...AND LEADING EDGE OF STRONGER MID-LEVEL FORCING FOR UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION APPEARS TO BE SPREADING INTO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS. BREAKS IN CLOUD COVER ...EVIDENT FROM PARTS OF SOUTH CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA THROUGH THE MOUNTAINS OF NORTH CAROLINA...LIKELY WILL ALLOW SUFFICIENT HEATING FOR DESTABILIZATION AND INCREASING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT THROUGH THE 17-19Z TIME FRAME. AS STORMS DEVELOP ALONG THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN...VERTICAL SHEAR BENEATH 30-40 KT CYCLONIC MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR AT LEAST BRIEF UPDRAFT ROTATION IN STRONGER CELLS. CAPE IS GENERALLY WEAK...BUT COULD LOCALLY EXCEED 1000 J/KG...AND MAY SUPPORT A STORMS WITH HAIL APPROACHING OR BRIEFLY EXCEEDING SEVERE LIMITS. ..KERR.. 05/26/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...CTP...LWX...RNK...PBZ...RLX...GSP...MRX... 38118033 38737970 40197840 39297777 38417833 37007978 35998139 35578243 35838290 36288312 36978195  From mcd at goshenarc.org Fri May 26 16:22:18 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Fri, 26 May 2006 12:22:18 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 261610 SWOMCD SPC MCD 261610 MAZ000-CTZ000-NYZ000-NHZ000-VTZ000-261815- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0987 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1110 AM CDT FRI MAY 26 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...HUDSON VALLEY...SRN NEW ENGLAND CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 261610Z - 261815Z A WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED DUE TO LIMITED COVERAGE/INTENSITY OF STRONGER STORMS...BUT CONVECTIVE TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED. BAND OF THUNDERSTORMS LIFTING ACROSS SOUTHEAST NEW YORK/NORTHERN NEW JERSEY TOWARD THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY APPEARS TO BE ASSOCIATED WITH LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION REGIME...AHEAD OF WEAKENING UPPER TROUGH SHIFTING INTO/THROUGH THE LOWER GREAT LAKES/OHIO VALLEY. THIS FORCING WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD ACROSS THE HUDSON VALLEY INTO PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN/WESTERN NEW ENGLAND THROUGH THE 18-19Z. CONVECTION LIKELY WILL BECOME ROOTED IN HEATING BOUNDARY LAYER AIR MASS ACROSS THIS REGION...BUT DEW POINTS ARE ONLY IN THE 55-60F RANGE. MID-LEVELS ARE COOL...BUT NOT PARTICULARLY COLD...AND THIS IS NOT SUPPORTING STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES...WHICH SEEM LIKELY TO LIMIT CAPE TO AROUND 500 J/KG. VERTICAL SHEAR APPEARS FAIRLY MODERATE AS WELL...AND ANY SEVERE THREAT SEEMS LIKELY TO BE LIMITED TO ISOLATED HAIL...WHICH COULD APPROACH OR BRIEFLY EXCEED SEVERE LIMITS. ..KERR.. 05/26/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...BOX...BTV...OKX...ALY... 43017427 44317367 43907318 43477287 42527202 41727221 41367234 40797314 40907352 40877388 41497395  From mcd at goshenarc.org Fri May 26 18:14:13 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Fri, 26 May 2006 14:14:13 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 261757 SWOMCD SPC MCD 261757 DEZ000-MDZ000-VAZ000-NCZ000-SCZ000-GAZ000-261930- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0988 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1257 PM CDT FRI MAY 26 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...SRN DELMARVA...SE VA...CNTRL AND ERN NC/SC CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 261757Z - 261930Z SEVERE THREAT IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE RAPIDLY NEXT FEW HOURS. STRONGER MID-LEVEL FORCING FOR UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION CONTINUES TO SHIFT INTO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS REGION...AND CONVECTIVE INITIATION ALONG/TO THE LEE OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN SEEMS A BIT SLOWER THAN EARLIER ANTICIPATED. HOWEVER...DOWNSTREAM ENVIRONMENT CONTINUES TO DESTABILIZE WITH STRONG HEATING...FROM THE PIEDMONT OF THE CAROLINAS THROUGH THE MID/SOUTHERN ATLANTIC COASTAL PLAINS. MIXED LAYER CAPE NEAR THERMAL RIDGE AXIS...WHERE SURFACE TEMPERATURES HAVE EXCEEDED 90F...NOW RANGES FROM 2000-3000 J/KG ...AND WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF VIGOROUS UPDRAFTS ONCE ACTIVITY FINALLY INITIATES. UNCERTAINTY EXISTS AS TO WHETHER THIS WILL OCCUR OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN...OR IN RESPONSE TO WEAKER MID/UPPER FORCING ALREADY BEGINNING TO SPREAD INTO THE CENTRAL CAROLINAS/SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA AND SOUTHERN DELMARVA PENINSULA. AT ANY RATE...A RAPID INCREASE IN THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY APPEARS POSSIBLE BY THE 19-21Z TIME FRAME. VERTICAL SHEAR ACROSS MUCH OF THIS REGION IS RATHER MODERATE IN STRENGTH...BUT 30 TO 40 KT MEAN FLOW IN DEEP MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER WITH LARGE TEMPERATURE/DEW POINT SPREADS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR STRONG DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. LARGE HAIL LIKELY WILL ALSO ACCOMPANY STRONGER CELLS AS ACTIVITY DEVELOPS EASTWARD THROUGH THE MID/LATE AFTERNOON HOURS...AFFECTING NORFOLK VA/RALEIGH AND FAYETTEVILLE NC/COLUMBIA SC AND POINTS EASTWARD. ..KERR.. 05/26/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...PHI...AKQ...MHX...LWX...RAH...ILM...RNK...CHS...CAE...GSP... 34648210 35338160 36028026 37727801 38527708 38637548 38057500 36367541 35107597 34097777 32778031 33498200  From mcd at goshenarc.org Fri May 26 19:57:25 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Fri, 26 May 2006 15:57:25 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 261956 SWOMCD SPC MCD 261955 ARZ000-MOZ000-OKZ000-262130- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0989 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0255 PM CDT FRI MAY 26 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...SRN MO...NRN AR...PARTS OF ERN OK CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 261955Z - 262130Z TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED FOR AN INCREASING THREAT OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...AND THE POSSIBILITY OF A WW. A CONVECTIVELY INDUCED OR ENHANCED MID-LEVEL CYCLONIC VORTICITY CENTER IS READILY EVIDENT IN SATELLITE IMAGERY OVER THE OZARK PLATEAU...SOUTH OF THE SPRINGFIELD MO AREA. THIS FEATURE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN WEAK FLOW REGIME EAST OF UPPER RIDGE AXIS...AND GENERALLY PROGRESSING SLOWLY SOUTHEAST. EVENTUALLY...BUT PROBABLY NOT UNTIL LATER THIS EVENING...FORCING NEAR CENTER OF CIRCULATION MAY BECOME FOCUS FOR ANOTHER CLUSTER OF STORMS. HOWEVER...IN THE SHORTER TERM...INITIATION OF SCATTERED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED TO ITS EAST AND SOUTH...WHERE ENVIRONMENT ALONG LOW-LEVEL THERMAL RIDGE EXTENDING OUT OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS HAS BECOME VERY UNSTABLE. LOW/MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE QUITE STEEP...AND WITH SURFACE TEMPERATURES AROUND 90F...DEW POINTS NEAR 70F ARE CONTRIBUTING TO MIXED LAYER CAPE ON THE ORDER OF 4000 J/KG. DESPITE WEAK SHEAR....EXTREME CONDITIONAL AND CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY SUPPORTS POTENTIAL FOR BOTH INTENSE UPDRAFTS AND DOWNDRAFTS IN STORMS...WHICH APPEAR POSSIBLE AS EARLY AS 21-22Z AS REMAINING INHIBITION IS OVERCOME. THIS WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY RISK OF LARGE HAIL AND STRONG DAMAGING WIND GUSTS ..KERR.. 05/26/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...PAH...MEG...LZK...SGF...TSA...OUN... 37429276 37239167 36699026 35999004 35269034 34769092 34499242 34519367 34579467 35359635 36269674 36069468 37039374  From mcd at goshenarc.org Fri May 26 20:30:59 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Fri, 26 May 2006 16:30:59 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 262026 SWOMCD SPC MCD 262026 NEZ000-SDZ000-COZ000-MTZ000-WYZ000-262200- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0990 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0326 PM CDT FRI MAY 26 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN WY/NE CO/SW SD/WRN NEB CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 262026Z - 262200Z ...CONVECTIVE TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED FOR POSSIBLE WATCH LATER THIS AFTN... AIRMASS ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS HAS BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH MLCAPE VALUES AROUND 2000-2500 J/KG. STORMS THAT HAVE FORMED ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS WILL MOVE E/NE INTO THE AREA OF GREATER INSTABILITY OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. IMPULSE NOTED IN WV IMAGERY ACROSS NRN NM/SRN CO WILL MOVE TOWARD THE AREA AND THIS WILL INCREASE STORM COVERAGE/INTENSITY. LAPSE RATES ARE VERY STEEP...AND THE COMBINATION OF FAVORABLE UPSLOPE FLOW AND INCREASING LARGE SCALE ASCENT WILL LIKELY RESULT IN STRONG TO SEVERE TSTMS LATER THIS AFTN. THE MAIN THREATS WILL BE MICROBURST WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. FAVORABLE DIRECTIONAL SHEAR WILL ALSO CONTRIBUTE TO ROTATING UPDRAFTS...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLD TORNADOES. ..TAYLOR.. 05/26/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LBF...UNR...GLD...BOU...CYS...BYZ...RIW... 39320472 41010580 42820623 44290591 44990481 45120261 44980184 42960184 41740184 40750192 39300289  From mcd at goshenarc.org Fri May 26 21:25:48 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Fri, 26 May 2006 17:25:48 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 262124 SWOMCD SPC MCD 262124 TXZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-COZ000-NMZ000-262300- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0991 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0424 PM CDT FRI MAY 26 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN NM/OK PANHANDLE/SE CO/TX PANHANDLE CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 262124Z - 262300Z ...HIGH BASED STORMS IN WELL MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER WILL LIKELY HAVE STRONG DOWNBURST WINDS... TEMPS HAVE HEATED UP INTO THE 90S IN SE CO/ERN NM TO AROUND 100 ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE TEXAS PANHANDLE. DEEPER CONVECTION IS OCCURRING ACROSS PORTIONS OF SE CO...EAST OF PUEBLO. DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS GENERALLY AROUND 30 KT IN THIS AREA...AND IS WEAKER FARTHER SOUTH. LAPSE RATES REMAIN VERY STEEP WITHIN A MODERATELY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT. GREATEST THREAT SEEMS TO BE WITH STRONG CONVECTIVE DOWNDRAFTS...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS WHERE TEMP/DEWPOINT DEPRESSION VALUES EXCEED 50-60 DEGREES. THE BETTER FORCING SHOULD BE FOCUSED FARTHER NORTH...ASSOCIATED WITH THE NRN NM IMPULSE. HOWEVER...STRONG HEATING HAS ERODED CONVECTIVE INHIBITION ACROSS MUCH OF THE SRN HIGH PLAINS...SO STORMS WILL DEVELOP SWD DOWN THE DRYLINE/LEE TROUGH INTO THE DAVIS MOUNTAINS. ..TAYLOR.. 05/26/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...DDC...GLD...LUB...AMA...MAF...PUB...BOU...ABQ... 34190140 32930271 32740364 33390445 36920456 38330473 38710367 38540177 38150061 36570044  From mcd at goshenarc.org Fri May 26 23:23:26 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Fri, 26 May 2006 19:23:26 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 262321 SWOMCD SPC MCD 262321 NCZ000-VAZ000-SCZ000-GAZ000-TNZ000-ALZ000-270045- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0992 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0621 PM CDT FRI MAY 26 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...SRN VA...NC...SC...NRN GA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 402...403...404... VALID 262321Z - 270045Z LATEST ANALYSIS DEPICTS COLD FRONT EAST OF THE APPALACHIANS WHILE THERMAL/LEE-TROUGH AXIS REMAINS SITUATED ACROSS ERN NC SWWD TO ERN SC. OUTFLOW FROM COASTAL CONVECTION HAS REINFORCED INLAND SEA BREEZE PENETRATION ACROSS NERN NC BUT SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY REMAINS CLOSER TO THE COAST ACROSS SRN SC/SERN GA. DESPITE DEEP CONVECTION ACROSS ERN NC/NERN SC OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS...DIAGNOSTIC DATA CONTINUES TO INDICATE ABUNDANT INSTABILITY REMAINS EAST OF THE LEE TROUGH...FROM THE SC MIDLANDS NEWD TO SERN VA. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT ADDITIONAL SEVERE STORMS COULD FORM ACROSS THESE AREAS AS COLD FRONT SPREADS EAST LATER TONIGHT...AND MODEST SHEAR PERSISTS OVER THE REGION. FARTHER SOUTHWEST...FROM SRN SC INTO GA...LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT WEAKER LARGE SCALE FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER TROUGH/FRONT MAY LIMIT TSTM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THESE AREAS. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF ONE SEVERE STORM OVER NRN POLK COUNTY GA...LACK OF GREATER STORM COVERAGE...AND DIMINISHING POTENTIAL WITH EWD/SEWD EXTENT...WOULD SUGGEST SWRN PORTIONS OF WW 402 MAY BE CLEARED WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR. ..CARBIN.. 05/26/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...RAH...ILM...RNK...CHS...CAE...GSP...MRX...FFC...BMX... 31588133 33378271 33678536 35018545 34788396 37797964 37397910 37337861 37287592 35747510  From mcd at goshenarc.org Sat May 27 00:34:54 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Fri, 26 May 2006 20:34:54 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 270033 SWOMCD SPC MCD 270033 TNZ000-GAZ000-ALZ000-KYZ000-MSZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-270200- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0993 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0733 PM CDT FRI MAY 26 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...SERN MO...NERN AR....WRN KY...WRN AND MIDDLE TN...NRN AL CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 406...409... VALID 270033Z - 270200Z NUMEROUS INTENSE TSTMS PERSIST FROM SERN MO/NERN AR EWD TO MIDDLE TN THIS EVENING ALONG QUASI-STATIONARY FRONTAL ZONE IN THE PRESENCE OF EXTREME INSTABILITY. LATEST BNA/LZK RAOBS APPEAR TO CONFIRM SHORT-TERM GUIDANCE THAT SHEAR ACROSS THE REGION REMAINS SOMEWHAT LIMITED. NONETHELESS...MAGNITUDE OF INSTABILITY /MLCAPE IN EXCESS OF 3000 J/KG/ WILL CONTINUE TO CONTRIBUTE TO VIGOROUS MULTICELLULAR UPDRAFTS PRODUCING SOME HAIL AS WELL AS SEVERE WIND GUSTS. SOMEWHAT STRONGER DEEP LAYER SHEAR APPROACHING 30KT ACROSS NRN/CNTRL PORTION OF WW 409 COULD PROMOTE SUPERCELL STORM STRUCTURE WITH CELLS OVER MIDDLE TN. EXPECT SEVERE STORM THREAT TO GRADUALLY DEVELOP INTO SRN PORTIONS OF WATCHES 406 AND 409 OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS AS LIFT ALONG THE DEVELOPING COLD POOL...COMBINED WITH FAVORABLE BACKGROUND ASCENT FROM MCV MOVING EAST FROM AR...MAINTAIN A SUPPORTIVE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEEP MOIST CONVECTION. ..CARBIN.. 05/27/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MRX...FFC...OHX...BMX...HUN...PAH...MEG...LSX...LZK...SGF... 34338559 35069036 35539285 37039283 37139133 36628806 36018548  From mcd at goshenarc.org Sat May 27 00:51:33 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Fri, 26 May 2006 20:51:33 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 270049 SWOMCD SPC MCD 270049 SDZ000-NDZ000-MTZ000-270215- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0994 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0749 PM CDT FRI MAY 26 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...WRN ND/WRN SD CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 407... VALID 270049Z - 270215Z ...INCREASING THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL ACROSS PORTIONS OF ND... COMPLEX OF TSTMS ACROSS WRN SD THIS AFTN HAS PRODUCED AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY EVIDENT ON SATELLITE IMAGERY. THIS BOUNDARY EXTENDS ROUGHLY FROM HEI/GCC/DGW AND WILL LIKELY BE A FOCUS FOR NEW STORM DEVELOPMENT. AIRMASS ACROSS ND REMAINS MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS SUGGESTING MLCAPE VALUES AROUND 1500 J/KG. SOUNDING FROM BISMARCK AT 00Z SHOWS A FAVORABLE WIND PROFILE FOR SUPERCELLS WITH AROUND 40 KT OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND STRONGLY CURVED HODOGRAPH IN THE LOWEST 3KM. ALTHOUGH SEVERE WIND GUSTS HAVE BEEN THE PROMINENT SEVERE MODE...IT APPEARS THAT THERE MAY BE AN INCREASING THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL BASED ON STRONG UPDRAFT CORES OBSERVED FROM LOCAL RADARS AND STEEP LAPSE RATES OBSERVED ON SOUNDING DATA. ..TAYLOR.. 05/27/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...ABR...BIS...UNR...GGW... 43040049 43000383 47520408 48940407 48930036  From mcd at goshenarc.org Sat May 27 01:57:25 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Fri, 26 May 2006 21:57:25 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 270155 SWOMCD SPC MCD 270155 MOZ000-IAZ000-NEZ000-KSZ000-COZ000-270330- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0995 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0855 PM CDT FRI MAY 26 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...WESTERN/SOUTH CENTRAL NEB AND FAR NORTHEAST CO/NORTHERN KS INTO EASTERN NEB/NORTHEAST KS CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 405...408... VALID 270155Z - 270330Z TORNADO WATCH 408 CONTINUES UNTIL 04Z. VALID PORTION OF TORNADO WATCH 405 CONTINUES UNTIL 03Z. AN ADDITIONAL WATCH COULD BE NEEDED ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST NEB/NORTHEAST KS IN THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO...WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR. PRIMARY THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS CONTINUES ACROSS MUCH OF WATCHES 408/405...NAMELY WESTERN NEB/SOUTH CENTRAL NEB INTO NORTH CENTRAL KS. 00Z RAOBS/OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS SUGGESTS AMBIENT ATMOSPHERE REMAINS MODERATELY UNSTABLE IN PRESENCE OF MODEST VERTICAL SHEAR. ACROSS WW 408...WELL ORGANIZED SEVERE STORM CLUSTERS/SMALL SCALE BOWS ARE PROGRESSING EASTWARD ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL KS AS THIS TIME. DEVELOPING S/SW LOW LEVEL JET AND DOWNSTREAM PROPAGATION INTO UNSTABLE AIRMASS /REF 00Z TOPEKA RAOB/ APPEARS LIKELY TO SUPPORT AT LEAST AN ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT DEVELOPING INTO SOUTHEAST NEB/NORTHEAST KS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. EXTENT/COVERAGE OF SEVERE THREAT AND NECESSITY FOR A WATCH IS UNCERTAIN...HOWEVER WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR. ..GUYER.. 05/27/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...EAX...OAX...TOP...ICT...GID...LBF...DDC...GLD...BOU...CYS... 42610342 42000180 41510065 41469864 41539634 41259580 41059556 39859550 39159607 39119760 39129920 38790002 38800095 40040189 40570306  From mcd at goshenarc.org Sat May 27 03:23:03 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Fri, 26 May 2006 23:23:03 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 270321 SWOMCD SPC MCD 270321 GAZ000-TNZ000-ALZ000-MSZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-270345- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0996 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1021 PM CDT FRI MAY 26 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...EXTREME NERN AR...WRN/MIDDLE TN...NRN AL CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 406...409... VALID 270321Z - 270345Z TSTMS WERE DIMINISHING IN INTENSITY ALONG RESIDUAL STATIONARY BOUNDARY ACROSS TN LATE THIS EVENING. WITH RIDGING ALOFT BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST ACROSS THE REGION...LACK OF STRONGER LARGE SCALE SUPPORT FOR ASCENT SHOULD INHIBIT ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT. AIR MASS ALONG THE FRONT REMAINS VERY MOIST...UNSTABLE...AND WEAKLY CAPPED. THUS...ONE OR TWO STRONG UPDRAFTS COULD STILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HAIL AND/OR WIND GUSTS NEAR SEVERE LEVELS. OVERALL POTENTIAL DOES NOT APPEAR TO WARRANT ADDITIONAL WATCH ISSUANCE BEYOND 04Z. ..CARBIN.. 05/27/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MRX...FFC...OHX...BMX...HUN...MEG... 34338567 34598792 35028854 35059023 36249004 36228894 35468657 34978550  From mcd at goshenarc.org Sat May 27 03:39:47 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Fri, 26 May 2006 23:39:47 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 270336 SWOMCD SPC MCD 270335 NDZ000-SDZ000-270530- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0997 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1035 PM CDT FRI MAY 26 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...WESTERN/CENTRAL ND INTO WEST CENTRAL SD CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 407... VALID 270335Z - 270530Z VALID PORTION OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 407 CONTINUES UNTIL 05Z...NAMELY ACROSS WESTERN/CENTRAL ND. GIVEN THE 05Z SCHEDULED EXPIRATION AND POSSIBILITY FOR A SEVERE THREAT CONTINUING OVERNIGHT...AN ADDITIONAL WATCH ISSUANCE/REPLACEMENT COULD BE NEEDED ACROSS PORTIONS OF ND. ALTHOUGH THERE HAS BEEN A RELATIVE LULL IN CONVECTIVE INTENSITY OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS...SHORT TERM 21Z SREF/00Z NAM GUIDANCE AND DIAGNOSTIC MASS FIELDS SUGGEST SEVERE POTENTIAL SHOULD CONTINUE AND/OR EVEN INCREASE INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS ACROSS ND. THIS APPEARS TO BE MOST LIKELY FOCUSED ACROSS NORTHERN ND OVERNIGHT IN AREAS NORTH OF I-94...IN PRESENCE OF DEVELOPING 40-50 KT SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL JET/MOISTURE TRANSPORT REGIME ALONG AND AHEAD OF LOW-MID LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE. SIMILAR TO 00Z BISMARK RAOB -- 2900 J/KG MUCAPE -- RUC SOUNDINGS FEATURE MODERATE INSTABILITY AND STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ABOVE A NOCTURNALLY STABILIZED BOUNDARY LAYER. COUPLED WITH THE DEGREE OF ELEVATED INSTABILITY...ADEQUATE CLOUD BEARING SHEAR WOULD BE SUPPORT POTENTIAL FOR UPDRAFT ROTATION AND ELEVATED SUPERCELLS. PRIMARY HAZARD WILL LIKELY BE LARGE HAIL REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. ..GUYER.. 05/27/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...FGF...ABR...BIS...UNR... 48300317 48890225 48719957 47059825 46049932 44799953 43419973 43180123 44300185 45930189 46260311  From mcd at goshenarc.org Sat May 27 04:57:19 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Sat, 27 May 2006 00:57:19 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 270456 SWOMCD SPC MCD 270455 MOZ000-IAZ000-KSZ000-NEZ000-270630- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0998 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1155 PM CDT FRI MAY 26 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN NEB...SWRN IA...NERN KS...NWRN MO CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 410... VALID 270455Z - 270630Z ARC OF DEEP CONVECTION CONTINUES SPREADING EAST ACROSS NERN KS/EXTREME SERN NEB AHEAD OF WELL DEVELOPED COLD POOL AND MESOLOW. MESOSCALE ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THESE FEATURES...AND MASS INFLOW ON THE NOSE OF INTENSIFYING LOW LEVEL JET...SHOULD MAINTAIN THE CHANCE FOR STORMS ACROSS THE MO RIVER VALLEY THROUGH LATE TONIGHT AND ADDITIONAL ELEVATED STORMS APPEAR TO BE DEVELOPING ACROSS PARTS OF ERN NEB AND WRN IA. INTENSE STORMS WERE BEGINNING TO BACKBUILD INTO THE INSTABILITY AXIS ACROSS ERN KS /SWRN EDGE OF WW 410/ AND EXPECT THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL...LOCALLY STRONG WIND GUSTS...AND HEAVY RAIN TO ACCOMPANY THIS CONVECTION. ELEVATED ACTIVITY ACROSS ERN NEB AND WRN IA ALSO LIKELY TO INCREASE PER MOST LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE. SEVERE HAIL AND HEAVY RAIN ALSO APPEARS POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS GIVEN PROXIMITY TO STRONG INSTABILITY AND MODEST EFFECTIVE SHEAR. AN ADDITIONAL WATCH OVER PARTS OF THE MO RIVER VALLEY MAY BE NEEDED IN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO IF STORMS CONTINUE TO INCREASE OUTSIDE OF WW 410. ..CARBIN.. 05/27/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...DMX...EAX...OAX...TOP...GID... 39189577 39039781 40349687 42009791 42219780 41409597 40759501 40209432 39139486  From mcd at goshenarc.org Sat May 27 07:54:15 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Sat, 27 May 2006 03:54:15 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 270752 SWOMCD SPC MCD 270752 NDZ000-MTZ000-270945- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0999 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0252 AM CDT SAT MAY 27 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...ND EXCEPT FOR EXTREME SRN AND EXTREME ERN PORTIONS. CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 411... VALID 270752Z - 270945Z WIDELY SCATTERED NON-SVR TSTMS ARE EVIDENT OVER WW ATTM...WITH SOME POTENTIAL REMAINING FOR ACTIVITY TO INTENSIFY TO SVR LIMITS...ESPECIALLY ALONG/AHEAD OF SFC COLD FRONT. HOWEVER...GIVEN OVERALL WEAKENING TRENDS DURING PAST COUPLE HOURS AND DIMINISHING PROBABILITIES FOR WELL-ORGANIZED SVR EVENT...SOME OR ALL OF WW MAY BE CANCELED BEFORE SCHEDULED 10Z EXPIRATION. SFC MESOANALYSIS SHOWS FRONTAL-WAVE LOW OVER CENTRAL ND BETWEEN BIS AND SERN PORTIONS LAKE SAKAKAWEA. COLD FRONT EXTENDS SWWD THROUGH SECONDARY LOW OVER NWRN SD AND INTO E-CENTRAL/S-CENTRAL WY. QUASISTATIONARY FRONTAL ZONE EXTENDS NEWD FROM ND LOW ACROSS NERN ND AND EXTREME SERN MB. FRONTAL ZONE SHOULD CONTINUE MOVING SLOWLY SEWD ACROSS SWRN/S-CENTRAL ND BUT REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY ELSEWHERE FOR ANOTHER 3-4 HOURS. MODIFIED RAOBS AND RUC SOUNDINGS INDICATE MUCAPES DIMINISHING GREATLY FROM SFC FRONT WWD...FROM AROUND 2000 J/KG ACROSS ERN ND TO LESS THAN 500 J/KG OVER WRN PORTIONS ORIGINAL WW. BUOYANCY DIMINISHES TO NEAR ZERO W OF WEAK BAND OF ELEVATED CONVECTION NOW EVIDENT FROM NEAR GDV NEWD ACROSS RENVILLE COUNTY. LAPSE RATES REMAIN FAVORABLY STEEP ALONG/AHEAD OF FRONT...WITH ELEVATED TSTMS REMAINING POSSIBLE AMIDST 40-50 KT LLJ AS OBSERVED IN BIS VWP. LIFT APPEARS WEAK AWAY FROM FRONTAL ZONE AND SFC LOW...HOWEVER....INDICATING LIMITED COVERAGE FOR ANY ACTIVITY THAT DOES DEVELOP. ..EDWARDS.. 05/27/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...FGF...BIS...BYZ...GGW... 47510412 48170281 48750183 49050115 49019789 48569789 48549832 48159829 47869855 46599845 46640058 46400059 46250102 46390136 46610135 46630375 46520405  From mcd at goshenarc.org Sat May 27 08:32:17 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Sat, 27 May 2006 04:32:17 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 270830 SWOMCD SPC MCD 270830 IAZ000-MOZ000-271100- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1000 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0330 AM CDT SAT MAY 27 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS CENTRAL/SRN IA...NRN MO. CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 270830Z - 271100Z LINEAR MCS WILL CONTINUE MOVING ENEWD 35-40 KT ACROSS CENTRAL/SRN IA AND ADJACENT PORTIONS NRN MO. OCCASIONAL HAIL AND STRONG GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE WITH ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE. ATTM...SVR POTENTIAL APPEARS TOO MRGL FOR WW BUT WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED. VWP DATA IN PRE-STORM ENVIRONMENT INDICATES 30-40 KT SLY LLJ...ALIGNED NEARLY PARALLEL TO ORIENTATION OF CONVECTIVE FORCING. MOTION OF LINE...THEREFORE...SHOULD BE NEARLY EQUIVALENT TO STORM-RELATIVE INFLOW VECTOR...WHICH APPEARS FAVORABLE ATTM. ONCE ACTIVITY MOVES E OF ABOUT I-35...UPSTREAM TRAJECTORIES GRADUALLY BECOME LESS MOIST...BASED ON 00Z 850 MB ANALYSES...RUC SOUNDINGS AND GPS PW DATA. SRN PORTION OF LINE ASTRIDE MO BORDER MAY SURVIVE LONGER SINCE AIR MASS ABOVE SFC APPEARS MORE BUOYANT OVER NRN MO. LINEAR ORGANIZATION SHOULD CONTINUE...WHICH NORMALLY WOULD FAVOR SEVERE WIND OVER HAIL FOR MAIN THREAT. HOWEVER...SHALLOW LAYER OF RELATIVELY STABLE AIR NEAR GROUND LEVEL WILL MITIGATE DOWNDRAFT SPEEDS IN MOST AREAS...LEAVING DAMAGING WIND THREAT ISOLATED/SPORADIC. SFC STATIONS OVER WHICH THIS LINE HAS PASSED SINCE MO RIVER BEAR THIS OUT...WITH MEASURED SUB-SVR GUSTS IN 22-41 KT RANGE. A FEW GUSTS MAY REACH SFC WITH ENOUGH STRENGTH TO DO MINOR DMG. ISOLATED HAIL ALSO REMAINS POSSIBLE FROM MOST VIGOROUS CORES -- MAINLY AN INCH OR LESS IN DIAMETER. ..EDWARDS.. 05/27/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LSX...DVN...DMX...EAX... 42249492 42349385 42309260 41369216 39999237 39829447 41009431  From mcd at goshenarc.org Sat May 27 19:14:23 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Sat, 27 May 2006 15:14:23 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 271912 SWOMCD SPC MCD 271912 WIZ000-ILZ000-IAZ000-MNZ000-272045- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1001 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0212 PM CDT SAT MAY 27 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...SERN MN...WI...NRN IL CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 271912Z - 272045Z ...ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP AHEAD OF UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH... CENTER OF WEAK UPPER VORT APPEARS TO BE LOCATED OVER NERN IA...LIFTING NEWD WITHIN THINNING MID-HIGH LEVEL CONVECTIVE DEBRIS FROM EARLY MORNING MCS. ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF THIS CLOUD CANOPY...CONVECTION HAS RECENTLY DEVELOPED WHERE BOUNDARY LAYER WARMING IS MAXIMIZED...AND WARM ADVECTION APPEARS TO BE FOCUSED. TWO AREAS ARE OF CONCERN FOR ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS: 1) ARCED SHAPED LINE OF DEVELOPMENT FROM DAKOTA COUNTY MN...TO PORTAGE COUNTY WI. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD CONTINUE TO INCREASE AS IT LIFTS NWD THIS AFTERNOON. 2) ANOTHER CONCENTRATED ZONE OF DEEP CONVECTION SHOULD DEVELOP SHORTLY FROM NCNTRL IL...SWWD TO NEAR THE IA/IL/MO BORDER. HIGH INSTABILITY IS SPREADING/DEVELOPING NEWD AS EVIDENT BY EXPANDING CU FIELD. BOTH OF THESE AREAS WILL BE INFLUENCED GREATLY BY LARGE SCALE ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH EJECTING SHORTWAVE TROUGH. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS ARE THE PRIMARY SEVERE THREATS. ..DARROW.. 05/27/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...GRB...LOT...ILX...MKX...DVN...DLH...ARX...MPX... 40859210 42889105 43949325 45189368 46399105 44528788 41598795 40409132  From mcd at goshenarc.org Sat May 27 20:11:07 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Sat, 27 May 2006 16:11:07 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 272009 SWOMCD SPC MCD 272009 SCZ000-GAZ000-NCZ000-TNZ000-ALZ000-272145- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1002 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0309 PM CDT SAT MAY 27 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...NRN AND CNTRL GA/NRN AL/SC CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 272009Z - 272145Z ...PULSE SVR TSTMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST THIS AFTN WITH MAIN THREATS OF ISOLD DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL... VERY UNSTABLE AIRMASS HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTHEAST WITH MLCAPE VALUES EXCEEDING 2000 J/KG ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SC COASTAL PLAIN INTO NRN GA. ALTHOUGH DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS NOT OVERLY STRONG...SFC TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED INTO THE LOW/MID 90S WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S. MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE STEEP...AND THE BOUNDARY LAYER IS WELL MIXED...SO TSTM DOWNDRAFTS WILL BE QUITE STRONG. TSTM WIND DAMAGE HAS ALREADY BEEN REPORTED ACROSS SC...ALONG WITH A FEW REPORTS OF HAIL. THESE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR A FEW HOURS...AND THE AREA HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO SLIGHT RISK IN LATEST CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK. ..TAYLOR.. 05/27/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...ILM...CHS...CAE...GSP...MRX...FFC...OHX...BMX...HUN... 31988098 33308545 34458803 35018791 35248684 35238384 35228229 34438056 33477949 32477955 32167996  From mcd at goshenarc.org Sat May 27 21:29:13 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Sat, 27 May 2006 17:29:13 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 272126 SWOMCD SPC MCD 272126 NDZ000-SDZ000-272330- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1003 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0426 PM CDT SAT MAY 27 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...ND...NRN SD CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 272126Z - 272330Z STORM INITIATION APPEARS LIKELY LATE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS SRN ND AND NRN SD. AS STORMS DEVELOP...SUPERCELLS WILL BE LIKELY WITH TORNADOES...LARGE HAIL AND WIND DAMAGE POSSIBLE. A TORNADO WATCH WILL BE LIKELY NEEDED BY 22Z ACROSS THE REGION. LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A SFC LOW ACROSS SCNTRL ND WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING NEWD ACROSS CNTRL AND NERN ND. SFC DEWPOINTS SOUTHEAST OF THE BOUNDARY ARE IN THE LOWER 60S F WITH MODERATE TO STRONG INSTABILITY PRESENT ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR. OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS SHOWS THE CAPPING INVERSION NEARLY GONE EAST OF BISMARCK AND SWD ALONG THE MO RIVER IN NRN SD. IN ADDITION...VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS AGITATED CUMULUS NEAR BISMARCK ALONG THE BOUNDARY AND ANOTHER CUMULUS FIELD DEVELOPING BETWEEN PIERRE AND MOBRIDGE SD. AS THE CAP WEAKENS FURTHER...RAPID THUNDERSTORM INITIATION SHOULD OCCUR. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ACROSS THE REGION SHOW THE MODERATE TO STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES ALONG AND NORTHWEST OF THE BOUNDARY WHICH SHOULD BE SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELLS. STEEP LAPSE RATES AND THE STRONG INSTABILITY SHOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR LARGE HAIL WITH VERY LARGE HAIL POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER SUPERCELLS. AS SUPERCELLS MATURE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND MOVE ACROSS CNTRL AND NERN ND...TORNADOES WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE. THE TORNADO THREAT WILL BE MOST LIKELY WITH ANY SUPERCELLS THAT TRACK NEWD PARALLEL TO THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. ..BROYLES.. 05/27/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...FGF...ABR...BIS...UNR... 48419813 47209763 45599796 44639912 44540065 45370153 47330157 48590065 48809931  From mcd at goshenarc.org Sat May 27 22:19:02 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Sat, 27 May 2006 18:19:02 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 272215 SWOMCD SPC MCD 272215 KSZ000-OKZ000-TXZ000-280015- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1004 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0515 PM CDT SAT MAY 27 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN TX PANHANDLE...WEST TX...WRN OK...SW KS CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 272215Z - 280015Z ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT LIKELY OVER THE NEXT 2 TO 3 HOURS. WIND DAMAGE AND LARGE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER STORMS. LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A SFC TROUGH EXTENDING SWD ACROSS FAR SE CO...THE OK PANHANDLE INTO THE WRN TX PANHANDLE. EAST OF THE TROUGH...A STRONG MOISTURE GRADIENT EXISTS WITH SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S F IN THE ERN TX PANHANDLE AND ALONG THE ERN EDGE OF THE CAPROCK IN WEST TX. MODERATE TO STRONG INSTABILITY IS PRESENT ALONG THE ERN EDGE OF THE MOISTURE GRADIENT. AS THE CAPPING INVERSION DIMINISHES LATE THIS AFTERNOON...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD INITIATE AND MOVE EWD INTO INCREASING INSTABILITY. PROFILERS CURRENTLY SHOW 0-6 KM SHEAR VALUES OF 25-30 KT SUGGESTING SUPERCELLS WILL BE POSSIBLE. IN ADDITION...LARGE TEMP-DEWPOINT SPREADS SHOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR WIND DAMAGE WITH THE STRONGER STORMS. IN ADDITION...STEEP LAPSE RATES SHOWN ON OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS SHOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR LARGE HAIL AND MAY ENHANCE THE WIND DAMAGE THREAT EARLY THIS EVENING AS THE LOW-LEVEL JET INCREASES ACROSS THE REGION. ..BROYLES.. 05/27/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...OUN...DDC...SJT...LUB...AMA...MAF... 31830073 31660188 32330194 34430129 37980000 37939868 36099931  From mcd at goshenarc.org Sat May 27 22:40:54 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Sat, 27 May 2006 18:40:54 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 272239 SWOMCD SPC MCD 272238 INZ000-ILZ000-WIZ000-272345- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1005 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0538 PM CDT SAT MAY 27 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...SE WI/NE IL/NW IND CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 412... VALID 272238Z - 272345Z ...SEVERE WATCH 412 MAY NEED TO BE LOCALLY EXTENDED INTO PORTIONS OF NERN IL INCLUDING THE CHICAGO METRO AREA... ENVIRONMENT CONTINUES TO LOOK FAVORABLE FOR STRONG/SEVERE TSTMS THIS AFTN. IN PARTICULAR...STRONG SUPERCELL NOW OVER LEE COUNTY HAS PRODUCED STRONG WINDS AND LARGE HAIL AND IS MOVING EAST QUICKLY. RECENT PROFILER DATA FROM BLUE RIVER WI SHOWS OVER 50 KT OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR WITH EXCELLENT LOW LEVEL TURNING. LOCAL RADAR SUGGESTS ROTATIONAL COUPLETS WITH THIS STORM...SO ISOLD TORNADO IS POSSIBLE. INSTABILITY DECREASES SOUTH AND EAST OF LAKE MICHIGAN...SO SEVERE THREAT AT LEAST WITH ONGOING STORMS IS EXPECTED TO DECREASE AS STORMS MOVE INTO LESS FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT. ..TAYLOR.. 05/27/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LOT...ILX...MKX...DVN... 42798790 42548933 41338949 40878876 40788772 40988716 41678703 42448720 42698728  From mcd at goshenarc.org Sat May 27 23:55:35 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Sat, 27 May 2006 19:55:35 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 272354 SWOMCD SPC MCD 272353 SDZ000-NDZ000-MTZ000-WYZ000-280200- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1006 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0653 PM CDT SAT MAY 27 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...NE WY...WRN SD...FAR SE MT...FAR SW ND CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 272353Z - 280200Z A THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL AND WIND DAMAGE WILL BE LIKELY WITH SUPERCELLS THAT INITIATE AND TRACK NEWD ACROSS THE REGION OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. AN ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT MAY ALSO DEVELOP. A WW MAY BE CONSIDERED FOR WRN SD AND NE WY IF STORMS CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE. SFC ANALYSIS CURRENTLY SHOWS A SFC LOW ACROSS CNTRL WY WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING NEWD ACROSS NRN WY AND WRN SD. SFC DEWPOINTS ALONG THE BOUNDARY RANGE FROM THE MID 40S F IN NCNTRL WY TO THE UPPER 50S F ACROSS WRN SD. AS A RESULT...MODERATE INSTABILITY IS IN PLACE WHICH SHOULD SUSTAIN THE DEVELOPING STORMS THIS EVENING. OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS CURRENTLY SHOWS 0-6 KM SHEAR VALUES ALONG THE BOUNDARY IN THE 45 TO 55 KT RANGE WITH VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES SUGGESTING SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL WILL BE LIKELY. ALTHOUGH LCL HEIGHTS ARE RELATIVELY HIGH ACROSS THE REGION...STRONG DIRECTIONAL SHEAR PROFILES ALSO SUGGEST AN ISOLATED TORNADO/WIND DAMAGE THREAT MAY EXIST WITH THE STRONGEST SUPERCELLS EARLY THIS EVENING. ..BROYLES.. 05/27/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...ABR...BIS...UNR...CYS...BYZ... 43570227 43110306 43030379 43210481 43760525 44430544 45370502 46090418 46260281 45850173 45320144 44500154  From mcd at goshenarc.org Sun May 28 01:06:46 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Sat, 27 May 2006 21:06:46 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 280105 SWOMCD SPC MCD 280104 WIZ000-IAZ000-MNZ000-280300- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1007 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0804 PM CDT SAT MAY 27 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...NE IA...SE MN...WRN WI CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 280104Z - 280300Z ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL LIKELY CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS ACROSS FAR NE IA...SE MN AND WRN WI. LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE WOULD BE THE PRIMARY THREATS. LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A MOIST AXIS EXTENDING NWWD ACROSS WRN IA INTO SE SD. STRONG INSTABILITY IS LOCATED ALONG THE MOIST AXIS WITH STORMS INITIATING ALONG THE INSTABILITY GRADIENT IN NERN IA. ADDITIONAL STRONG STORMS ARE ONGOING IN WEAKER INSTABILITY ACROSS CNTRL WI. THE STORMS ARE FORMING BEHIND A SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND MAY INCREASE IN COVERAGE GRADUALLY THIS EVENING. REGIONAL PROFILERS SHOW MODERATE VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES ACROSS THE REGION ASSOCIATED WITH A MID-LEVEL JET MAX OVER SRN WI. THIS COMBINED WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES SUGGEST ISOLATED SUPERCELLS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH A POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL AND WIND DAMAGE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. ..BROYLES.. 05/28/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...GRB...DLH...ARX...MPX...DMX... 43099107 42909241 43499376 44529419 45509338 45789172 45129035 44029008  From mcd at goshenarc.org Sun May 28 04:18:32 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Sun, 28 May 2006 00:18:32 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 280413 SWOMCD SPC MCD 280412 MIZ000-WIZ000-280615- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1008 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1112 PM CDT SAT MAY 27 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN WI...UPPER MI CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 280412Z - 280615Z AN ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT MAY CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS ACROSS ERN WI AND UPPER MI. LARGE HAIL SHOULD BE THE PRIMARY THREAT. LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CURRENTLY SHOWS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER NRN MN AND WI WITH AN MCS ONGOING ALONG THE AXIS OF THE TROUGH. THE STORMS ARE LOCATED ALONG THE NERN EDGE OF A GRADIENT OF MODERATE INSTABILITY NEAR A MID-LEVEL JET MAX ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH. THE JET IS ENHANCING VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES WITH REGIONAL PROFILERS SHOWING 0-6 KM SHEAR VALUES OF 35-40 KT. THIS MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR AN ISOLATED SUPERCELL THREAT ALTHOUGH MULTICELL MODE SHOULD BECOME INCREASINGLY DOMINANT AS INSTABILITY GRADUALLY DECREASES. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT SHOW STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WHICH COMBINED WITH THE SHEAR SHOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR AN ISOLATED LARGE HAIL THREAT FOR A FEW MORE HOURS. ..BROYLES.. 05/28/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MQT...GRB...MKX...ARX... 43588809 44018986 45248996 45958916 46388810 46218708 45738640 44988642 44258696  From mcd at goshenarc.org Sun May 28 04:29:27 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Sun, 28 May 2006 00:29:27 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 280428 SWOMCD SPC MCD 280427 NDZ000-MTZ000-280630- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1009 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1127 PM CDT SAT MAY 27 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...FAR ERN MT...WRN ND CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 280427Z - 280630Z A MARGINAL SEVERE THREAT MAY DEVELOP ACROSS FAR ERN MT AND WRN ND OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. HAIL AND ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE MAY OCCUR WITH A FEW OF THE STORMS. LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A SFC LOW OVER ERN WY WITH A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDING NEWD INTO WCNTRL ND. NORTHWEST OF THE BOUNDARY...SFC DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE 50S F WITH MLCAPE VALUES RANGING FROM 500 TO 1000 J/KG AS SHOWN ON OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS. LATEST MODEL FORECASTS ARE IN AGREEMENT WITH DEVELOPING AN MCS ALONG THE NWRN EDGE OF THE INSTABILITY GRADIENT ACROSS ERN MT AND WRN ND OVERNIGHT. AS STORMS INCREASE IN COVERAGE...THE INSTABILITY COMBINED WITH STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR A FEW MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS. ALTHOUGH THE INSTABILITY IS RELATIVELY WEAK...STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND THE STRONG SHEAR MAY BE FAVORABLE FOR A HAIL THREAT AND/OR STRONG WIND GUSTS WITH THE STRONGER CELLS. ..BROYLES.. 05/28/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...BIS...BYZ...GGW... 46450381 46570544 47270589 48020581 48540548 48930478 48870317 48380244 47190255  From mcd at goshenarc.org Sun May 28 17:32:07 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Sun, 28 May 2006 13:32:07 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 281730 SWOMCD SPC MCD 281730 GAZ000-FLZ000-ALZ000-TNZ000-KYZ000-281900- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1010 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1230 PM CDT SUN MAY 28 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...KY..TN..AL..GA..GA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 281730Z - 281900Z STRONGER STORMS MAY BRIEFLY BE SEVERE THIS AFTERNOON OVER THIS REGION...WITH WET-MICROBURSTS POSSIBLE. NO WATCH IS ANTICIPATED. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS CU FIELD INCREASING FROM SOUTH CENTRAL KY INTO CENTRAL AL...THEN SOUTHEASTWARD INTO NORTH FL. SURFACE DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE 70S ALONG THIS ZONE...WITH MLCAPE VALUES OF 2000-3000 J/KG. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY ALSO SUGGESTS DEEP MOISTURE ALONG THIS AXIS. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEGUN TO DEVELOP OVER KY/TN...AND OTHER STORMS ARE LIKELY TO FORM IN THE NEXT ONE TO TWO HOURS SOUTHWARD INTO NORTH FL. UPPER RIDGE IS CENTERED OVER THIS AREA...WITH STAGNANT MID LEVEL WINDS AND EXTREMELY WEAK VERTICAL SHEAR. THIS WILL LIKELY RESULT IN NEAR STATIONARY STORMS CAPABLE OF VERY HEAVY RAINFALL. PULSE-TYPE STORMS WILL ALSO HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR BRIEF WET-MICROBURSTS AND HAIL. ..HART.. 05/28/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...CHS...JAX...MRX...FFC...TAE...LMK...OHX...BMX...HUN...MOB...PAH... 37228734 37038582 35728538 34168579 33188513 32778380 32588239 31698116 31138125 29918130 30178290 30828411 31668603 32758696 34358731 35978731  From mcd at goshenarc.org Sun May 28 20:09:05 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Sun, 28 May 2006 16:09:05 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 282006 SWOMCD SPC MCD 282006 TXZ000-282200- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1011 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0306 PM CDT SUN MAY 28 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...SW TEXAS CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 282006Z - 282200Z PULSE-TYPE SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS ACROSS SW TEXAS...WITH A COUPLE OF THE STRONGEST STORMS PRODUCING SEVERE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. A WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED. LATEST MESOANALYSIS SHOWS MLCAPE VALUES IN SW TEXAS INCREASING OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS TO AT OR ABOVE 3000 J/KG...AND VISIBLE SATELLITE INDICATES A CU FIELD DEVELOPING IN THIS UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT...WITH STORMS ALREADY OCCURRING TO THE NORTHWEST OF BRO. GIVEN THE WEAK VERTICAL SHEAR ENVIRONMENT...STORMS WILL BE MAINLY PULSING IN NATURE AND RATHER STATIONARY AS LOW TO MID-LEVEL FLOW OVER THE AREA IS AT 5 TO 10 KTS...THERFORE...STORMS WILL MAINLY BE DOMINATED BY THE VERY UNSTABLE THERMODYNAMIC PROFILE. SOME STORMS COULD BRIEFLY BECOME SEVERE DURING THE MATURE PHASE OF THEIR CYCLE WITH HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS THE MAIN THREAT...AND MICROBURSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE AS STORMS QUICKLY COLLAPSE. ADDITIONALLY...LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE. ..LEVIT.. 05/28/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...CRP...EWX...BRO... 30059971 29179890 27869832 27409752 26949749 26199742 26289811 26479884 26899922 27529939 27959983 29760116  From mcd at goshenarc.org Sun May 28 20:14:56 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Sun, 28 May 2006 16:14:56 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 282011 SWOMCD SPC MCD 282011 OKZ000-KSZ000-TXZ000-282215- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1012 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0311 PM CDT SUN MAY 28 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...EASTERN TX/OK PANHANDLES...SWRN KS CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 282011Z - 282215Z ...THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE DRYLINE... BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED RAPIDLY THROUGH THE MID 90S ACROSS THE SRN HIGH PLAINS FROM THE TX PANHANDLE INTO SWRN KS. LATEST DIAGNOSTIC FIELDS SUGGEST LOWEST 3 KM LAPSE RATES ARE NEAR DRY ADIABATIC ALONG THE DRYLINE WHICH STRETCHES ALONG THIS AXIS. LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY SUPPORT THESE TRENDS WITH AN EXPANDING CU FIELD ALONG THIS CONFLUENCE ZONE. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST MODIFIED INVERTED-V PROFILES WILL SUPPORT THUNDERSTORM BASES NEAR 650 MB. NEEDLESS TO SAY...SBCAPE VALUES IN EXCESS OF 2000 J/KG AND SUBSTANTIAL DRY SUB CLOUD LAYER WILL PROVE SUPPORTIVE OF STRONG DOWNBURSTS WITH MULTICELL UPDRAFTS THAT DRIFT NEWD OFF THE DRYLINE LATER THIS EVENING. ..DARROW.. 05/28/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...OUN...DDC...LUB...AMA... 35450136 37229995 37169908 34020051 34260161  From mcd at goshenarc.org Sun May 28 22:43:42 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Sun, 28 May 2006 18:43:42 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 282242 SWOMCD SPC MCD 282242 SDZ000-NEZ000-WYZ000-290045- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1013 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0542 PM CDT SUN MAY 28 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...EXTREME ERN WY....NEB PNHDL....WRN SD CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 282242Z - 290045Z CONSISTENT WITH MODEL GUIDANCE...TSTMS ARE NOW BEGINNING TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY ACROSS SERN WY AS A STRONG SHORT WAVE TROUGH/MID LEVEL SPEED MAX EMERGES FROM THE LARGER SCALE WRN U.S. TROUGH. ACTIVITY SHOULD BECOME WIDESPREAD ENOUGH TO WARRANT A SEVERE TSTM WATCH ACROSS PARTS OF THE REGION THIS EVENING. LATEST DIAGNOSTIC DATA CONTINUES TO INDICATE LIMITED INSTABILITY WITHIN POST-FRONTAL AIR MASS ACROSS ERN WY AND THE NEB PNHDL. HOWEVER...SUFFICIENTLY MOIST POST-FRONTAL UPSLOPE FLOW...COUPLED WITH ADIABATIC COOLING ALOFT DUE TO STRONGLY FORCED ASCENT WAS RESULTING IN MLCAPE APPROACHING 500 J/KG ACROSS PORTIONS OF NRN NEB AND SWRN SD ATTM. CONVECTION NOW DEVELOPING NEAR THE FRONT OVER SERN WY WILL MOVE INTO THIS AXIS OF GREATER INSTABILITY OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THIS ACTIVITY...AND ADDITIONAL STORMS DEVELOPING ON THE BLACK HILLS WILL EXIST WITHIN A VERY STRONGLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW LEVEL ELY/NELY FLOW TOPPED BY INCREASING SWLY FLOW ALOFT. GIVEN MAGNITUDE OF SHEAR AND FORCING FORECAST TO SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH TONIGHT...POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS WITH HAIL AND HIGH WINDS SHOULD INCREASE. ACTIVITY COULD POSSIBLY EVOLVE INTO A SEVERE MCS ACROSS WRN SD THROUGH THE EVENING AND A WATCH APPEARS LIKELY AT THIS TIME. ..CARBIN.. 05/28/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...ABR...LBF...UNR...CYS... 41630241 41400370 41820446 43120442 44940372 45650260 45580135 44680025  From mcd at goshenarc.org Sun May 28 23:45:32 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Sun, 28 May 2006 19:45:32 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 282343 SWOMCD SPC MCD 282342 SDZ000-NEZ000-290115- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1014 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0642 PM CDT SUN MAY 28 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...NERN NEB...SCNTRL/SERN SD CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 282342Z - 290115Z POTENTIAL FOR STORM INITIATION APPEARS TO BE INCREASING OVER PARTS OF NERN NEB INTO SERN SD THIS EVENING. WHILE CAP REMAINS QUITE STRONG ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION...ANY STORM THAT CAN FORM IN THE AREA WILL QUICKLY ATTAIN SEVERE LEVELS WITH LARGE HAIL AND HIGH WINDS POSSIBLE. LATEST ANALYSIS DEPICTS TRIPLE-POINT LOW NEAR ONL WITH DRY LINE EXTENDING SWD AND COLD/STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDING NNEWD INTO SERN SD. AIR MASS NEAR THESE FEATURES WAS STRONGLY UNSTABLE WITH DIAGNOSTIC DATA INDICATING MLCAPE VALUES AROUND 2000 J/KG. CAP REMAINS STRONG ACROSS THE REGION BUT LATEST RUC SOUNDINGS SUGGEST INHIBITION HAS PROBABLY REACHED ITS WEAKEST POINT GIVEN STRONG HEATING AND DEEPLY MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER NEAR THE LOW/DRYLINE AND FRONT. STRONGER LARGE SCALE ASCENT TO AID STORM INITIATION NEAR THE BOUNDARIES APPEARS SUBTLE ATTM WITH MORE CONCENTRATED LIFT FOCUSED FARTHER WEST OF THE REGION. HOWEVER...A SMALL PERCENTAGE OF MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES A LOW PROBABILITY OF CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. IF DEVELOPMENT OCCURS...HAIL AND HIGH WINDS APPEAR LIKELY GIVEN AMOUNT OF CAPE AVAILABLE TO UPDRAFTS BREACHING THE CAP. AT PRESENT...STRONGER DEEP LAYER SHEAR FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS EXISTS NEAR THE FRONT AND LOW AND SHEAR IS FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR THROUGH THE EVENING. WHILE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD DEVELOPMENT CURRENTLY APPEARS LOW...AREA WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED AND A WATCH MAY BE NEEDED IF SEVERE STORM FORMATION BECOMES MORE CERTAIN. ..CARBIN.. 05/28/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...FSD...OAX...ABR...LBF... 44779731 44689796 43459879 42999895 42589911 41929861 42219757 43229706  From mcd at goshenarc.org Mon May 29 00:19:56 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Sun, 28 May 2006 20:19:56 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 290018 SWOMCD SPC MCD 290017 OKZ000-KSZ000-TXZ000-290115- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1015 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0717 PM CDT SUN MAY 28 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...WRN TX...WRN OK...SWRN KS CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 415...416... VALID 290017Z - 290115Z A FEW VIGOROUS STORMS CONTINUE ALONG DRYLINE FROM THE ERN TX PNHDL SWD TO THE RIO GRANDE THIS EVENING. MUCH OF THIS ACTIVITY APPEARS TO BE DRIVEN PRIMARILY BY DIURNAL FORCING/DESTABILIZATION AND COULD STILL POSE A THREAT OF LARGE HAIL AND DOWNBURST WINDS FOR A COUPLE MORE HOURS. POCKETS OF STRONGER DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND STRONGER INSTABILITY EAST OF THE ONGOING STORMS SUGGEST THAT SOME OF THE ACTIVITY MAY PERSIST WHILE GRADUALLY DEVELOPING EWD. PRESENTLY... GREATEST SEVERE POTENTIAL APPEARS TO BE WITH CELL MERGERS OCCURRING OVER REAGAN AND DONLEY COUNTIES IN TX. ..CARBIN.. 05/29/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...OUN...EWX...DDC...SJT...LUB...AMA...MAF... 30329956 30160182 29960238 33610150 36250090 38239989 38249848 36399850 35089863 35019932 34379912 34229947  From mcd at goshenarc.org Mon May 29 02:24:35 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Sun, 28 May 2006 22:24:35 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 290222 SWOMCD SPC MCD 290222 SDZ000-NDZ000-NEZ000-290415- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1016 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0922 PM CDT SUN MAY 28 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...NRN NEB...SD...SRN ND CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 417... VALID 290222Z - 290415Z SEVERE WEATHER DEVELOPING ACROSS PORTIONS OF NRN NEB AND SRN/CNTRL SD OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL CAN BE EXPECTED. AN ADDITIONAL WATCH MAY BE NEEDED IN AN HOUR OR SO FOR AREAS EAST OF WW 417. SEVERE MCS HAS EVOLVED FROM ARC OF DEEP CONVECTION RACING ENEWD ACROSS NWRN NEB AND SWRN SD THIS EVENING. NUMEROUS SEVERE HAIL REPORTS AND HIGH WIND GUSTS HAVE ALREADY BEEN OBSERVED WITH THIS ACTIVITY WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP INTO STRONGER LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY OVER NEXT FEW HOURS. VERY STRONG DYNAMIC FORCING ON THE NOSE OF DIFFLUENT MID LEVEL WIND MAX WILL CONTINUE TO ACT ON MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS TO SUSTAIN STORMS IN A VERY STRONGLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT ACROSS SD/NEB. EXPECT BOWING LINE SEGMENTS...AND POSSIBLY EVEN EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS...TO MOVE TO THE ERN EDGE OF WW 417 OVER THE NEXT TWO HOURS. ..CARBIN.. 05/29/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...FSD...ABR...BIS...LBF...UNR...CYS... 42559959 41960298 44880315 45050272 46389857 45439817  From mcd at goshenarc.org Mon May 29 06:58:49 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Mon, 29 May 2006 02:58:49 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 290657 SWOMCD SPC MCD 290657 MNZ000-SDZ000-NDZ000-290900- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1017 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0157 AM CDT MON MAY 29 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS E-CENTRAL/NERN SD...SERN ND...EXTREME WE-CENTRAL MN. CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 418... VALID 290657Z - 290900Z MCS SHOULD CONTINUE MOVING NEWD APPROXIMATELY 50 KT ACROSS CENTRAL/NRN PORTIONS WW AREA...WITH WIND DAMAGE AND HAIL POSSIBLE. ALTHOUGH ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY MAY DEVELOP ATOP OUTFLOW POOL FROM MCS ACROSS NERN NEB OR SERN SD...PRIND SVR POTENTIAL WILL BE TOO MRGL/CONDITIONAL TO CONTINUE WW BEHIND INITIAL ACTIVITY. TWO PRIMARY CLUSTERS ARE EVIDENT WITHIN MCS AS OF 0630Z. ORIGINAL BAND OF TSTMS RESPONSIBLE FOR 49 KT GUST AT PIR...AND STRONGER WINDS EARLIER IN SWRN SD...APPEARS TO BE SHRINKING WITH OVERALL WEAKENING TREND...BUT STILL REMAINS CAPABLE OF OCCASIONAL HAIL AND GUSTS NEAR SEVERE LEVELS AS IT CROSSES ND COUNTIES LAMOURE...STUTSMAN...MCINTOSH AND LOGAN. THIS ACTIVITY IS MOVING ALONG 850 MB FRONTAL ZONE AND WRN EDGE OF FAVORABLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...AS EVIDENT IN RUC SOUNDINGS AND GPS PW DATA. SRN SEGMENT WILL MOVE ACROSS ABR AREA AND NEWD TOWARD FAR...ALSO WITH SOME WIND/HAIL POTENTIAL. THIS ACTIVITY IS LOCATED CLOSER TO MOST FAVORABLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ABOVE SFC...HOWEVER...IT SHOULD REMAIN BEHIND INTENSE GUST FRONT PRODUCED BY INITIAL SEGMENT FOR AT LEAST 2-3 MORE HOURS. ASSOCIATED RELATIVELY COLD/STABLE OUTFLOW AIR MAY REDUCE INTENSITY/DURATION OF GUSTS WITH SECOND CLUSTER. GENERAL WEAKENING TENDENCIES MAY CONTINUE...WITH POSSIBILITY THAT WW WOULD BE CANCELED BEFORE SCHEDULED 10Z EXPIRATION. ..EDWARDS.. 05/29/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MPX...FGF...FSD...ABR...BIS... 43719806 45059933 46709989 47679936 47899864 47789735 47089637 45229634 43849766  From mcd at goshenarc.org Mon May 29 08:31:10 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Mon, 29 May 2006 04:31:10 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 290828 SWOMCD SPC MCD 290828 MNZ000-SDZ000-NDZ000-291000- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1018 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0328 AM CDT MON MAY 29 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS E-CENTRAL/NERN ND...W-CENTRAL MN...NERN SD. CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 418... VALID 290828Z - 291000Z STRONG/POSSIBLY SVR TSTM NW JMS SHOULD CONTINUE TO MOVE NNEWD APPROXIMATELY 50 KT ALONG 850 MB FRONT TOWARD DVL AREA...WHERE SFC TEMPS UPPER 50S F AND ASSOCIATED STABLE LAYER IN FCST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL IS LIMITED/ISOLATED. CONVECTION PRODUCED 33 KT GUST AT JMS. POTENTIAL REMAINS FOR OCCASIONAL SVR HAIL. BECAUSE OF LIMITED TIME/AREA AFFECTED...PRIND ADDITIONAL WW WILL NOT BE NECESSARY. FARTHER SE...GUST FRONT FROM INITIAL TSTM CLUSTER PRODUCED 39 KT GUST AT ABR METAR/ASOS BUT MEASURED 54 KT GUST ON WFO ABR WIND EQUIPMENT...AS WELL AS VEGETATIVE DAMAGE IN CLARK COUNTY. ALTHOUGH GUST FRONT IS WELL REMOVED FROM ANY THUNDER...POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING GUSTS MAY CONTINUE THROUGH NERN CORNER SD BEFORE ASSOCIATED DENSITY CURRENT WEAKENS. ISOLATED TSTMS MAY DEVELOP ATOP OUTFLOW POOL AND BEHIND GUST FRONT...BUT SVR POTENTIAL APPEARS LIMITED ATTM. PER COORD W/FSD...SERN SD IS BEING REMOVED FROM WW...AND REMAINING PORTIONS WW MAY BE EXPIRATION OR ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AS SCHEDULED. ..EDWARDS.. 05/29/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MPX...FGF...ABR...BIS... 46589720 47089803 47029929 49049937 48999786 47399740 46829526 45209639 45169756  From mcd at goshenarc.org Mon May 29 10:12:49 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Mon, 29 May 2006 06:12:49 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 291008 SWOMCD SPC MCD 291007 NYZ000-291200- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1019 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0507 AM CDT MON MAY 29 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS N-CENTRAL/WRN NY. CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 291007Z - 291200Z AIR MASS ABOVE SFC APPEARS TO BE DESTABILIZING IN PROSPECTIVE INFLOW REGION OF TSTM CLUSTER THAT WAS MOVING SEWD ACROSS ERN LAKE ONTARIO AS OF 0945Z. STRONGEST CELLS MAY PRODUCE HAIL AS THEY MOVE SEWD ACROSS AREA BOUNDED BY SERN SHORE OF LAKE ONTARIO AND ROC...UCA...BGM...ELM. WW NOT ANTICIPATED BECAUSE OF MRGL NATURE OF EVENT AND SMALL TIME/SPATIAL SCALE. MODIFIED RUC SOUNDINGS INITIALLY SHOW UNFAVORABLE THERMODYNAMIC CONDITIONS BOTH SFC AND ALOFT OVER MOST OF THIS AREA...WITH ALMOST NO BUOYANCY...WHEN MODIFIED FOR LATEST SFC OBS. HOWEVER...INCREASINGLY MOIST WLY LLJ -- UP TO ABOUT 30 KT AS INDICATED FROM BUF VWP -- SHOULD LEAD TO NEAR SATURATION AROUND 850 MB LEVEL...AND STEEPENED LOW-MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES THROUGH WAA. RESULT SHOULD BE NARROW CORRIDOR OF ELEVATED MUCAPES 500-1000 J/KG. SMALL ZONE OF ENHANCED 40-45 KT MIDLEVEL FLOW MOVING ACROSS THIS AREA MAY BE ASSOCIATED WITH TIGHTENED MESOBETA SCALE HEIGHT GRADIENT ON SW SIDE OF AN MCV...PRODUCED INITIALLY BY MCS THAT DEVELOPED ABOUT 30 HOURS AGO ACROSS WI. THIS MAY ENHANCE DEEP-LAYER SHEAR ENOUGH TO AID ORGANIZATION OF ELEVATED/MULTICELLULAR TSTMS AND INTRODUCE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED HAIL. ..EDWARDS.. 05/29/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...BGM...BUF... 43527743 43477688 43597653 43767618 43707562 43137536 42387550 42207600 42167689 43087766 43437778  From mcd at goshenarc.org Mon May 29 15:39:43 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Mon, 29 May 2006 11:39:43 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 291537 SWOMCD SPC MCD 291537 IAZ000-MOZ000-KSZ000-NEZ000-291700- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1020 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1037 AM CDT MON MAY 29 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN KS...W CNTRL/NW MO INTO W CNTRL IA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 291537Z - 291700Z A WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED IN THE NEAR TERM...BUT TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF A CONSOLIDATING COLD POOL/AN INCREASINGLY ORGANIZED SEVERE THREAT...WHICH COULD NECESSITATE A WW LATER THIS AFTERNOON. VIGOROUS CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT...ONGOING WEST OF THE I-35 CORRIDOR...FROM EAST CENTRAL KANSAS INTO SOUTHWEST IOWA...APPEARS MOSTLY IN RESPONSE TO A ZONE OF STRONGER LOWER/MID TROPOSPHERIC WARM ADVECTION. THIS IS OCCURRING NEAR WEAKENING LOW-LEVEL JET STREAK...JUST AHEAD OF SURFACE FRONT SLOWLY ADVANCING THROUGH THE MID MISSOURI VALLEY. ACTIVITY IS MOST LIKELY BASED ABOVE A CAPPING INVERSION LAYER...BUT UNSATURATED LOW/MID-LEVEL PROFILES WITH CAPE AROUND 2000 J/KG ARE PROVIDING A FAVORABLE THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT FOR ISOLATED DOWNBURSTS AND MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL DESPITE WEAKLY SHEARED FLOW REGIME. FORCING IS PROGGED TO PERSIST AND GRADUALLY DEVELOP NORTH/ NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE INTERSTATE 35 CORRIDOR...INCLUDING THE KANSAS CITY AND DES MOINES AREAS...THROUGH THE 18-19Z TIME FRAME. MODELS SUGGEST THIS LARGE-SCALE ASCENT MAY WEAKEN THEREAFTER...BUT INHIBITION MAY BE SUFFICIENTLY WEAKENED BY THAT TIME FOR CONTINUING BOUNDARY LAYER CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ON THUNDERSTORM OUTFLOWS. ..KERR.. 05/29/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...ARX...SGF...DMX...EAX...FSD...OAX...TOP...ICT... 40979541 41869517 42979512 43349380 43019287 41919258 40269286 38759434 37869515 37729595 39219603  From mcd at goshenarc.org Mon May 29 16:28:18 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Mon, 29 May 2006 12:28:18 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 291622 SWOMCD SPC MCD 291622 MNZ000-291815- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1021 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1122 AM CDT MON MAY 29 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...MN CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 291622Z - 291815Z TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED FOR AN INCREASING SEVERE THREAT. A WW WILL PROBABLY BE NEEDED BY MID/LATE AFTERNOON...PERHAPS EARLIER. ON THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF A SIGNIFICANT UPPER TROUGH LIFTING THROUGH THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS...MODELS SUGGEST STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE CONTRIBUTING TO STRONG INSTABILITY IN MOIST PRE-FRONTAL ENVIRONMENT ACROSS MINNESOTA. WITH SURFACE DEW POINTS IN THE MID/UPPER 60S...OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS INDICATES MIXED LAYER CAPE IS ON THE ORDER OF 3000 TO 4000 J/KG. LOWER/MID-LEVEL INHIBITION IS STILL SUBSTANTIAL IN MOST AREAS...BUT BEGINNING TO WEAKEN WITH INCREASING INSOLATION. ALTHOUGH STRONGEST MID/UPPER FORCING SEEMS LIKELY TO REMAIN TO THE WEST OF SURFACE FRONT...MODELS SUGGEST ENOUGH LIFT IN CAPPING LAYER TO SUPPORT THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH PRIMARY DEVELOPMENT PROBABLY WILL NOT OCCUR UNTIL NEAR/SHORTLY AFTER THE PEAK HEATING HOURS...INITIATION APPEARS POSSIBLE AS EARLY AS 18-19Z...NEAR FRONTAL ZONE ACROSS WEST CENTRAL INTO NORTHWEST MINNESOTA. A GRADUAL INCREASE IN COVERAGE IS THEN EXPECTED EASTWARD ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL MINNESOTA...MAINLY NEAR/NORTH OF ST. CLOUD INTO THE INTERNATIONAL FALLS AREA...THROUGH 21Z. DEEP LAYER SHEAR MAY NOT BE STRONG...BUT MODERATE LOW/MID-LEVEL FLOW FIELDS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO RISK FOR DAMAGING DOWNBURSTS IN FAVORABLE THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT. ISOLATED LARGE HAIL WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE IN STRONGER CELLS. ..KERR.. 05/29/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...DLH...MPX...FGF... 48239595 48869588 49629545 50709549 50819398 50289254 49919180 48989218 48479258 47419320 46289356 44319433 44689510 45459571 46529593 47589595  From mcd at goshenarc.org Mon May 29 20:04:24 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Mon, 29 May 2006 16:04:24 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 292003 SWOMCD SPC MCD 292002 MNZ000-WIZ000-IAZ000-292200- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1022 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0302 PM CDT MON MAY 29 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL/ERN MN...PARTS OF WRN WI/NRN IA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 419... VALID 292002Z - 292200Z SEVERE THREAT IS INCREASING ACROSS PARTS OF THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. CONTINUE WW 419. SIGNIFICANT SHORT WAVE TROUGH CONTINUES TO LIFT THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS. WHILE PRIMARY FORCING FOR LARGE-SCALE ASCENT REMAINS TO THE WEST OF THE SURFACE FRONT...AN AREA OF STRONGER MID-LEVEL FORCING IN WARM SECTOR TO THE EAST HAS AIDED ONGOING VIGOROUS CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT NORTH OF ST. CLOUD INTO AREAS WEST OF INTERNATIONAL FALLS. THIS FORCING IS EXPECTED TO LIFT THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF NORTHEAST MINNESOTA BY 30/00Z. EMBEDDED WITHIN THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY STEEP LAPSE RATES...HIGH BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE AND CAPE ON THE ORDER OF 3000 TO 4000 J/KG...DAMAGING DOWNBURSTS AND LARGE HAIL APPEAR LIKELY NEXT FEW HOURS. EVENTUALLY...MERGING COLD POOLS COULD CONTRIBUTE TO BROADER SCALE DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL WEST THROUGH NORTHWEST OF DULUTH INTO THE ARROWHEAD BY 22-23Z. FARTHER SOUTH...DESPITE WEAK MID-LEVEL FORCING...WEAKENING INHIBITION AND STRENGTHENING LIFT ALONG/JUST AHEAD OF SURFACE FRONT WILL PROBABLY SUPPORT ADDITIONAL CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT WEST OF THE INTERSTATE 35 CORRIDOR THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF MINNESOTA LATE THIS AFTERNOON. ACTIVITY COULD DEVELOP INTO AREAS NEAR/EAST OF FORT DODGE IA...BUT DEVELOPMENT FARTHER SOUTH/SOUTHWEST MAY BE INHIBITED BY STABILIZING INFLUENCE OF CONVECTIVE CLUSTER OVER NORTHWEST MISSOURI. ..KERR.. 05/29/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...DLH...ARX...MPX...DMX... 47819425 49559384 50499379 49989130 48929036 47769050 46229227 45139267 43919312 42899399 42719462 43909423 44829399 46259427  From mcd at goshenarc.org Mon May 29 20:35:07 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Mon, 29 May 2006 16:35:07 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 292032 SWOMCD SPC MCD 292032 KSZ000-OKZ000-TXZ000-292230- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1023 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0332 PM CDT MON MAY 29 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...S CNTRL KS/W OK/NW TX CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 292032Z - 292230Z SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS...WESTERN OKLAHOMA...AND NORTHWEST TEXAS. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS ARE THE PRIMARY THREAT. A WW IS POSSIBLE BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON. LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES A DEVELOPING CU FIELD AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT STRETCHES ROUGHLY FROM GBD TO NW OF CDS TO LBB. AS DAYTIME HEATING CONTINUES...THE AIRMASS AHEAD OF THE FRONT CONTINUES TO DESTABILIZE...WITH MLCAPE VALUES RANGING FROM AROUND 2000 TO ABOVE 3000 J/KG. A RELATIVELY STRONG CAPPING INVERSION IS IN PLACE OVER THE REGION...HOWEVER...CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT AND AT A DRYLINE/FRONTAL INTERSECTION NW OF CDS IS EXPECTED TO HELP TRIGGER CONVECTION BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR PROFILES INDICATE WEAK WIND SPEEDS AND LITTLE DIRECTIONAL SHEAR...AND THEREFORE ANY STORMS THAT FORM ARE EXPECTED TO BE MAINLY MULTICELLUAR IN NATURE. ADDITIONALLY...GIVEN THE MODERATE SURFACE TEMPERATURE-DEWPOINT SPREADS IN THE REGION...STORMS WILL BE FAIRLY HIGH-BASED. THE VERY UNSTABLE THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT...WHICH WILL APPROACH MLCAPE VALUES OF 4000 J/KG BY 00Z...WILL SUPPORT LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. ..LEVIT.. 05/29/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...TOP...ICT...OUN...DDC...SJT...LUB...AMA... 38809816 38729715 38159709 37379753 36769771 35649813 35039826 34239866 33699913 33279974 33160017 33170065 33240135 33890115 34410072 34920028 35450008 36349978 36909956 37419901 38079847 38489822  From mcd at goshenarc.org Mon May 29 23:05:45 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Mon, 29 May 2006 19:05:45 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 292304 SWOMCD SPC MCD 292303 MNZ000-WIZ000-IAZ000-300030- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1024 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0603 PM CDT MON MAY 29 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN MN...NERN IA...WRN WI CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 419...420... VALID 292303Z - 300030Z WEAK COLD FRONT CONTINUES DEVELOPING EAST INTO VERY UNSTABLE AIR MASS FROM ERN MN/NERN IA ACROSS WRN WI. LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH FRONTAL CIRCULATION AND BROADLY DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT WILL BE SUFFICIENT TO MAINTAIN VIGOROUS DEEP CONVECTION ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING. STRONGER DEEP LAYER SHEAR EXISTS ACROSS MN PORTIONS OF WATCH 419 WHERE 40KT MID LEVEL FLOW EXISTS ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR. ADDITIONALLY...A LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARY OVER THE AREA MAY CONTRIBUTE TO LOCALLY ENHANCED LOW LEVEL SHEAR. HOWEVER...LOWER INSTABILITY TO THE SOUTH OF THE LAKE BREEZE MAY LIMIT SEVERE STORM POTENTIAL CLOSER TO THE LAKE. STORMS WILL LIKELY PERSIST INTO WRN WI THROUGH THE EVENING. EFFECTIVE SHEAR AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT IN THIS AREA WAS WEAKER THAN FARTHER NORTH. HOWEVER...GIVEN MAGNITUDE OF INSTABILITY... EXPECT ORGANIZED MULTICELL STORMS WITH HAIL AND WIND POTENTIAL TO SPREAD EAST INTO SERN PORTIONS OF WW 419...AND ERN PORTIONS OF WW 420 OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. ..CARBIN.. 05/29/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...DVN...DLH...ARX...MPX...DMX... 42259174 42259482 45379405 48659391 48119097 45379062  From mcd at goshenarc.org Tue May 30 00:46:38 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Mon, 29 May 2006 20:46:38 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 300045 SWOMCD SPC MCD 300045 KSZ000-OKZ000-TXZ000-300215- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1025 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0745 PM CDT MON MAY 29 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...KS...OK CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 421... VALID 300045Z - 300215Z SMALL AREA OF INTENSE CONVECTION PERSISTS ACROSS WOODS AND GRANT COUNTY OK THIS EVENING WITH ADDITIONAL STORMS DEVELOPING ALONG STALLED COLD FRONT NEWD INTO KS. MEANWHILE...ACTIVITY SWWD ALONG THE DRYLINE INTO WRN OK HAS DIMINISHED. DIAGNOSTIC DATA...ICT AND HBR PROFILERS...SUGGESTED THAT KS STORMS WERE OCCURRING IN AN AREA WITH ADEQUATE SHEAR FOR SUPERCELLS. THIS IS CONFIRMED BY LEFT-SPLIT STORM NOW MOVING THROUGH STAFFORD COUNTY. FARTHER SOUTH...WEAK BUT DIFFLUENT MID LEVEL FLOW AND MESOSCALE FORCING ALONG THE COLD POOL ASSOCIATED WITH OK CONVECTION MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR ADDITIONAL STORM DEVELOPMENT WITHIN VERY UNSTABLE AIR MASS TONIGHT. THIS DEVELOPMENT MAY BE FURTHER DRIVEN BY INCREASING NOCTURNAL LOW LEVEL JET DIRECTED PREFERENTIALLY INTO THE FRONT AND NUMEROUS OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES ACROSS THE REGION. GIVEN MEAGER SHEAR...EXPECT PRIMARILY MULTICELLULAR STORMS WITH LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND/LARGE HAIL...AND HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL. ..CARBIN.. 05/30/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...TOP...ICT...OUN...DDC...LUB...AMA... 38949831 38889676 34549878 34540039 37279933  From mcd at goshenarc.org Tue May 30 03:40:36 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Mon, 29 May 2006 23:40:36 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 300337 SWOMCD SPC MCD 300336 KSZ000-MOZ000-IAZ000-NEZ000-OKZ000-300600- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1026 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1036 PM CDT MON MAY 29 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...SERN NEB...ERN KS...NRN/CNTRL OK CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...HEAVY RAINFALL VALID 300336Z - 300600Z SEVERE STORMS WITH HAIL...LOCALLY HIGH WINDS...AND TORRENTIAL RAIN EXPECTED TO PERSIST ACROSS PARTS OF THE SRN PLAINS THROUGH LATE TONIGHT. ADDITIONAL WATCHES ARE NOT CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED DUE TO SCATTERED/RANDOM NATURE OF SEVERE THREAT...AND LACK OF LARGER SCALE ORGANIZATION GIVEN RELATIVELY WEAK FLOW ENVIRONMENT. MOST INTENSE ACTIVITY HAS BEEN ALONG THE STALLED SURFACE FRONT ACROSS NERN KS LATE THIS EVENING. THIS COMPLEX HAS RECENTLY DEVELOPED A LARGE COLD POOL AND STRONGER UPDRAFTS ARE LIKELY TO SHOW SOME EWD/SEWD PROPAGATION INTO INCREASING LOW LEVEL INFLOW. SIMILAR SCENARIO APPEARS TO BE UNFOLDING ACROSS NWRN OK WHERE ADDITIONAL UPDRAFTS HAVE DEVELOPED ATOP MCS COLD POOL AS MOIST LOW LEVEL SLY FLOW IN WEAKLY CAPPED ENVIRONMENT FUELS NEW DEVELOPMENT. FORWARD PROPAGATING CLUSTERS OF STORMS WITH REPORTS OF STRONG WINDS WERE OVER SCNTRL KS AND NCNTRL OK. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD CONTINUE TO BE SUPPORTED BY INFLOW OF VERY MOIST/UNSTABLE AIR AND MESOSCALE ASCENT ALONG NUMEROUS RESIDUAL OUTFLOWS SITUATED ACROSS SERN KS AND NERN OK. ENTIRE REGION LIES BENEATH PRONOUNCED THICKNESS DIFFLUENCE AND GENERALLY WEAK STEERING CURRENTS SUGGESTING THAT LOCALLY EXCESSIVE RAINFALL COULD OCCUR FROM EITHER REPEAT OR TRAINING CONVECTION. DISCRETE CELLS ENCOUNTERING POCKETS OF SLIGHTLY STRONGER EFFECTIVE SHEAR MAY ALSO ACQUIRE SUPERCELLULAR CHARACTERISTICS LEADING TO GREATER HAIL POTENTIAL. ..CARBIN.. 05/30/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...EAX...TSA...OAX...TOP...ICT...OUN...GID...DDC... 36989666 35589745 35489891 36319983 37849929 40739682 41169575 39839543 38019649  From mcd at goshenarc.org Tue May 30 06:14:16 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Tue, 30 May 2006 02:14:16 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 300612 SWOMCD SPC MCD 300612 IAZ000-MOZ000-KSZ000-NEZ000-300845- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1027 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0112 AM CDT TUE MAY 30 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS EXTREME SERN NEB...SERN IA...EXTREME NERN MO...EXTREME NERN KS. CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL VALID 300612Z - 300845Z SMALL MCS -- NOW PRODUCING HEAVY RAINFALL AND INTERMITTENT REPORTS OF HAIL AOB 1 INCH DIAMETER OVER SERN NEB -- IS FCST TO MAINTAIN ITSELF AS IT PROPAGATES SLOWLY EWD/ESEWD TOWARD NWRN MO/SWRN IA. ALTHOUGH OCCASIONAL HAIL WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE...ORGANIZED SVR THREAT IS TOO MRGL FOR WW. MAIN HAZARD WILL COME FROM HEAVY RAIN RATES -- 2-3 INCHES/HOUR. SLOW MOTION OF COMPLEX...AND CELL MERGERS ARISING FROM DEVELOPMENT OF ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY IN INFLOW REGION...WILL COMPOUND THREAT. RICH LOW LEVEL AIR MASS WILL BE LIFTED OVER SLOW MOVING OUTFLOW BOUNDARY AS ADDITIONAL CELLS DEVELOP ON BOTH SIDES OF THAT BOUNDARY...AIDING EWD PROPAGATION OF WHOLE TSTM CLUSTER. ACTIVITY MAY TURN SOMEWHAT SEWD IN NEXT 2-3 HOURS TOWARD AXIS OF GREATEST INSTABILITY -- BETWEEN STJ-MKC AND AHEAD OF OUTFLOW FROM SEPARATE COMPLEX NOW EVIDENT BETWEEN EMP-MHK. COMPLEX SHOULD REMAIN EFFICIENT PRECIP GENERATOR GIVEN FAVORABLY MOIST AND BUOYANT INFLOW AIR. MODIFIED TOP RAOB AND RUC FCST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST ELEVATED MUCAPE 2000-3000 J/KG...15-16 G/KG MEAN MIXING RATIO...AND PW AROUND 1.5 INCHES THAT ALSO IS EVIDENT IN LATEST GPS PW DATA OVER AREA. ALTHOUGH LLJ DOES NOT APPEAR PARTICULARLY STRONG OVER MOST OF THIS AREA...NARROW CORRIDOR OF 30-50 KT SLY FLOW JUST ABOVE SFC IS BEING SAMPLED BY EAX VWP AND MAY AID THIS ACTIVITY AS WELL. ..EDWARDS.. 05/30/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...DMX...EAX...OAX...TOP... 40099627 40889580 41199559 41209525 41189504 41139462 40709477 40369494 39929525 39889575  From mcd at goshenarc.org Tue May 30 06:18:29 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Tue, 30 May 2006 02:18:29 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 300616 SWOMCD SPC MCD 300616 COR IAZ000-MOZ000-KSZ000-NEZ000-300845- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1027 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0116 AM CDT TUE MAY 30 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS EXTREME SERN NEB...SWRN IA...EXTREME NWRN MO...EXTREME NERN KS. CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL VALID 300616Z - 300845Z CORRECTED FOR TYPOS IN HEADER SMALL MCS -- NOW PRODUCING HEAVY RAINFALL AND INTERMITTENT REPORTS OF HAIL AOB 1 INCH DIAMETER OVER SERN NEB -- IS FCST TO MAINTAIN ITSELF AS IT PROPAGATES SLOWLY EWD/ESEWD TOWARD NWRN MO/SWRN IA. ALTHOUGH OCCASIONAL HAIL WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE...ORGANIZED SVR THREAT IS TOO MRGL FOR WW. MAIN HAZARD WILL COME FROM HEAVY RAIN RATES -- 2-3 INCHES/HOUR. SLOW MOTION OF COMPLEX...AND CELL MERGERS ARISING FROM DEVELOPMENT OF ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY IN INFLOW REGION...WILL COMPOUND THREAT. RICH LOW LEVEL AIR MASS WILL BE LIFTED OVER SLOW MOVING OUTFLOW BOUNDARY AS ADDITIONAL CELLS DEVELOP ON BOTH SIDES OF THAT BOUNDARY...AIDING EWD PROPAGATION OF WHOLE TSTM CLUSTER. ACTIVITY MAY TURN SOMEWHAT SEWD IN NEXT 2-3 HOURS TOWARD AXIS OF GREATEST INSTABILITY -- BETWEEN STJ-MKC AND AHEAD OF OUTFLOW FROM SEPARATE COMPLEX NOW EVIDENT BETWEEN EMP-MHK. COMPLEX SHOULD REMAIN EFFICIENT PRECIP GENERATOR GIVEN FAVORABLY MOIST AND BUOYANT INFLOW AIR. MODIFIED TOP RAOB AND RUC FCST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST ELEVATED MUCAPE 2000-3000 J/KG...15-16 G/KG MEAN MIXING RATIO...AND PW AROUND 1.5 INCHES THAT ALSO IS EVIDENT IN LATEST GPS PW DATA OVER AREA. ALTHOUGH LLJ DOES NOT APPEAR PARTICULARLY STRONG OVER MOST OF THIS AREA...NARROW CORRIDOR OF 30-50 KT SLY FLOW JUST ABOVE SFC IS BEING SAMPLED BY EAX VWP AND MAY AID THIS ACTIVITY AS WELL. ..EDWARDS.. 05/30/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...DMX...EAX...OAX...TOP... 40099627 40889580 41199559 41209525 41189504 41139462 40709477 40369494 39929525 39889575  From mcd at goshenarc.org Tue May 30 09:32:51 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Tue, 30 May 2006 05:32:51 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 300930 SWOMCD SPC MCD 300930 KSZ000-COZ000-301230- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1028 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0430 AM CDT TUE MAY 30 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS E-CENTRAL/SERN CO...SWRN AND EXTREME W-CENTRAL KS. CONCERNING...CONVECTIVE TRENDS...SVR TSTM POTENTIAL. VALID 300930Z - 301230Z RAPID INCREASE IN CONVECTIVE COVERAGE SHOULD CONTINUE OVER REGION WITH OCCASIONAL SEVERE HAIL POSSIBLE. SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS QUASISTATIONARY FRONTAL ZONE -- SOMEWHAT DIFFUSED BY OUTFLOW FROM EARLIER CONVECTION OVER MUCH OF CENTRAL/SRN PLAINS -- EXTENDS FROM SERN NEB SWWD ACROSS RSL/HYS AREA...TO BETWEEN LBL-EHA...TO BETWEEN DHT-CAO. FRONT MAY DRIFT WNWWD OVER KS AND OK/TX PANHANDLES. BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS AND WAA ATOP OUTFLOW POOLS MAY SUSTAIN/ENHANCE CONVECTION OVER SWRN KS AHEAD OF FRONT. NW OF FRONT...LOW LEVEL ISENTROPIC ASCENT AND CONVERGENT 850 MB FLOW WILL CONTINUE OVER SERN CO AND FAR WRN KS. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN PARCELS LIFTED TO LFC...AMIDST FAVORABLE SELY FLOW AND MOIST ADVECTION INTO BOTTOM OF CONVECTIVE LIFTED LAYER. MOISTURE CHANNEL IMAGERY INDICATES WEAK UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING NEWD ACROSS NWRN NM/SWRN CO. COOLING IR CLOUD TOPS ARE EVIDENT IN FOREGOING MID/UPPER LEVEL CLOUD PLUME...BOTH FROM CONVECTIVE TOPS AND FROM ASCENT WITHIN NON CONVECTIVE CLOUD BEARING LAYERS. THIS INDICATES LARGE SCALE LIFT REASONABLY IS INCREASING ACROSS THIS REGION UNDER COMBINED INFLUENCE OF MIDLEVEL DPVA AHEAD OF THAT TROUGH...LOW LEVEL WAA...AND UVV BENEATH RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF UPPER JET MAX. MLCAPES IN RUC SOUNDINGS INCREASE TO AS MUCH AS 2500 J/KG THROUGH 13Z...BUT WITH DECREASING EFFECTIVE SHEAR RELATED TO WEAKENING SELYS WITH TIME. STILL...VERTICAL SHEAR WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR SOME STORMS TO PRODUCE LARGE HAIL. ..EDWARDS.. 05/30/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...DDC...GLD...PUB...BOU... 38210440 38900358 39450179 39420074 39129999 38639956 37829925 37349977 37120101 37080246 37610412  From mcd at goshenarc.org Tue May 30 16:20:38 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Tue, 30 May 2006 12:20:38 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 301613 SWOMCD SPC MCD 301613 ILZ000-WIZ000-IAZ000-301815- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1029 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1113 AM CDT TUE MAY 30 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN IA...SRN WI AND NRN IL CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 301613Z - 301815Z STORMS ARE IN THE PROCESS OF INCREASING IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY ACROSS NERN IA INTO SRN WI. ADDITIONAL STORMS MAY DEVELOP FARTHER S INTO NRN IL LATER THIS AFTERNOON. ISOLATED STRONG WIND GUSTS AND HAIL MAY ACCOMPANY THE STRONGER STORMS. AREA WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE WW LATER THIS AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS ACROSS S CNTRL WI THEN SWWD AS A STATIONARY FRONT THROUGH ERN AND SRN IA WITH AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM NERN IA EWD THROUGH SRN WI. THE ATMOSPHERE CONTINUES TO DESTABILIZE WITH MLCAPE FROM 1500 TO 2000 J/KG EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON. STORMS HAVE BEEN INCREASING ACROSS SRN WI IN VICINITY OF THE E-W BOUNDARY. WEAKENING CAP AND ASCENT DOWNSTREAM FROM MCV MOVING NEWD THROUGH ERN IA WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT STORM DEVELOPMENT...ESPECIALLY IN VICINITY OF PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED BOUNDARIES. CONVECTION HAS BECOME RATHER WIDESPREAD ACROSS SRN WI...AND THIS MAY TEND TO LIMIT DESTABILIZATION POTENTIAL IN THIS AREA. FARTHER S ACROSS NRN IL FORCING FOR INITIATION WILL BE LESS FOCUSED...BUT WEAK CAP AND STRONGER HEATING OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER MIGHT CONTRIBUTE TO A FEW STORMS THIS AFTERNOON. AMBIENT VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES ARE WEAK. HOWEVER...A BAND OF 30 KT 500 MB FLOW ON SRN PERIPHERY OF MCV WILL CONTRIBUTE TO SLIGHTLY BETTER WIND PROFILES AND POSSIBLY BETTER STORM ORGANIZATION OVER NRN IL...BUT STORM MODE WILL REMAIN MULTICELLULAR. MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE MODEST...BUT THE THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT MAY BECOME AT LEAST MARGINALLY SUFFICIENT FOR ISOLATED HAIL AND A FEW DOWNBURSTS...ESPECIALLY IF STORMS MANAGE TO DEVELOP S OF ONGOING ACTIVITY. ..DIAL.. 05/30/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LOT...ILX...MKX...DVN...ARX... 41609130 43309085 43838806 42508799 41538770 40809048  From mcd at goshenarc.org Tue May 30 16:55:09 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Tue, 30 May 2006 12:55:09 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 301653 SWOMCD SPC MCD 301653 OHZ000-MIZ000-KYZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-301900- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1030 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1153 AM CDT TUE MAY 30 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...NRN KY...MUCH OF IND...WRN OH AND SRN MI CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 301653Z - 301900Z SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE INTO THE AFTERNOON. ISOLATED STRONG WIND GUSTS AND HAIL WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS. OVERALL THREAT IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE SUFFICIENT FOR A WW. THUNDERSTORMS HAVE ALREADY DEVELOPED OVER PARTS OF THE OH VALLEY FROM IND INTO OH AND ACTIVITY SHOULD CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE THIS AFTERNOON. THIS REGION IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF AN UPPER RIDGE WITH VERY WEAK SHEAR AND MODEST MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. HOWEVER...THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES WITH MODERATE INSTABILITY...MLCAPE AROUND 2000 J/KG...AND LOW LEVEL TEMPERATURE-DEWPOINT SPREADS UP TO 25F WILL SUPPORT THREAT OF STRONG STORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING ISOLATED DOWNBURSTS AND HAIL. LACK OF A LOW LEVEL FOCUS AND WEAK VERTICAL SHEAR SUGGEST ACTIVITY WILL BE DISORGANIZED AND PULSE IN CHARACTER...WITH ANY SEVERE EVENTS REMAINING BRIEF AND ISOLATED. ..DIAL.. 05/30/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...CLE...ILN...DTX...LMK...IWX...IND...PAH...ILX... 41088257 39698304 37978523 37658793 41148665 42058465  From mcd at goshenarc.org Tue May 30 17:23:32 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Tue, 30 May 2006 13:23:32 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 301722 SWOMCD SPC MCD 301721 NYZ000-MAZ000-VTZ000-CTZ000-NJZ000-PAZ000-301915- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1031 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1221 PM CDT TUE MAY 30 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN NY...WRN VT...WRN MA...WRN CT...NERN PA...NRN NJ CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 301721Z - 301915Z THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY AS THEY DEVELOP SWD THROUGH PARTS OF THE NERN STATES AND NEW ENGLAND THIS AFTERNOON. THE STRONGER STORMS MAY BECOME CAPABLE OF PRODUCING STRONG WIND GUSTS AND HAIL. WW WILL PROBABLY NOT BE NECESSARY...BUT AREA WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED. THIS AFTERNOON A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS N-S ACROSS EXTREME ERN NY. ALONG AND W OF THIS BOUNDARY...THE ATMOSPHERE HAS BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH MLCAPE FROM 2000 TO 2500 J/KG. STORMS HAVE BEEN INCREASING ACROSS NERN NY INTO NWRN VT IN VICINITY OF THE FRONT AS WELL AS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. WV IMAGERY SHOWS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH ADVANCING SEWD TOWARD NERN NY...WHICH MIGHT CONTRIBUTE TO A GREATER CONCENTRATION OF STORMS IN THIS AREA. ACTIVITY IS EMBEDDED WITHIN MODEST 15 TO 20 KT 700-500 MB FLOW AND WILL GRADUALLY SPREAD SEWD. OTHER MORE ISOLATED ACTIVITY MAY DEVELOP FARTHER S. VERTICAL SHEAR IS WEAK AND SUPPORTIVE OF MULTICELLS. HOWEVER...THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT WILL CONTRIBUTE TO A THREAT OF ISOLATED WET MICROBURSTS AND HAIL WITH THE STRONGER STORMS. ..DIAL.. 05/30/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...BOX...BTV...OKX...ALY...PHI...BGM...BUF... 43257535 44747457 44877335 44007280 42327265 40787325 40487445 41217547  From mcd at goshenarc.org Tue May 30 18:50:10 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Tue, 30 May 2006 14:50:10 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 301848 SWOMCD SPC MCD 301848 KSZ000-OKZ000-TXZ000-302045- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1032 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0148 PM CDT TUE MAY 30 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...SRN/CNTRL KS INTO FAR NWRN OK/NERN TX PANHANDLE CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 301848Z - 302045Z ELEVATED TSTMS WILL LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH MID-AFTERNOON ACROSS SWRN KS/OK PANHANDLE AND MAY EVENTUALLY BACKBUILD AND BECOME INCREASINGLY SFC-BASED FURTHER S. FURTHER E...TSTMS SHOULD CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ALONG QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT FROM P28 TO SLN. STEEP LAPSE-RATES AND MODEST DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL PROVIDE A POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. AREA IS BEING MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE WW IN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO. SCATTERED TSTMS REMAIN ONGOING ACROSS SWRN KS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...S OF DECAYING MCS NOW IN S-CNTRL NEB. STORMS HAVE GENERALLY BEEN CONFINED N OF A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT...FROM PYX TO P28 TO SLN. RUC FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE MUCAPES IN THIS ZONE FROM AROUND 1000 J/KG WITH EFFECTIVE SHEAR AROUND 30 KTS. THIS SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR A MARGINAL LARGE HAIL THREAT. ACTIVITY FURTHER E...FROM BARBER TO MCPHERSON COUNTIES KS...ARE IN A MORE UNSTABLE AIR MASS WITH MLCAPES OF 1500 TO 2000 J/KG. ALTHOUGH DEEP-LAYER SHEAR IS MODEST /0-6 KM AROUND 20 KT PER HBR PROFILER/...STEEP LAPSE-RATES SHOULD SUPPORT LARGE-HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND THREAT. STORMS MAY EVENTUALLY CONSOLIDATE INTO A MULTICELLULAR CLUSTER TOWARDS LATE AFTERNOON. ..GRAMS.. 05/30/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...TOP...ICT...OUN...DDC...AMA... 35859961 35290021 35050088 35000180 35500184 36040162 36930110 37660037 37899927 38419840 38879782 39439740 39679703 39419672 39139678 38309705 37499760 36579864  From mcd at goshenarc.org Tue May 30 22:11:52 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Tue, 30 May 2006 18:11:52 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 302211 SWOMCD SPC MCD 302211 KSZ000-OKZ000-COZ000-TXZ000-NMZ000-302345- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1033 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0511 PM CDT TUE MAY 30 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN PLAINS OF CO/FAR NERN NM/FAR WRN OK PANHANDLE CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 302211Z - 302345Z SCATTERED TSTMS ARE INCREASING ALONG THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES FROM ERN CO INTO FAR NERN NM...AND SHOULD SPREAD FURTHER E TOWARDS SW KS/NW TX AND OK PANHANDLES. MODEST...BUT INCREASING...INSTABILITY AND MODERATE SHEAR WILL SUPPORT AT LEAST A MARGINAL SEVERE THREAT. A WW WILL BE ISSUED SHORTLY. TSTMS HAVE ORGANIZED AND INCREASED IN INTENSITY OVER THE PAST HOUR FROM ERN ADAMS/ERN ARAPAHOE COUNTIES SWWD INTO ERN FREMONT COUNTIES IN ERN CO. FURTHER S...MORE ISOLATED DEVELOPMENT CONTINUES IN UNION COUNTY NM. RUC FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE STORMS EXIST IN A MARGINALLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS...WITH MLCAPES OF 500 TO 1000 J/KG. CONTINUED LOW-LEVEL MOIST UPSLOPE FLOW SHOULD SUPPORT INCREASING INSTABILITY THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS AS THE ACTIVITY SPREADS E TOWARDS THE KS BORDER. ZONE OF 40 KT WSWLY 500 MB FLOW WILL SUPPORT EFFECTIVE SHEAR OF 40 TO 50 KTS AND POTENTIAL SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT. LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE MAIN SEVERE THREAT WITH STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES. IN ADDITION...AN ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT MAY ALSO EXIST WITH LOW-LEVEL ENELY FLOW BENEATH WSWLY FLOW ALOFT. HOWEVER...GENERALLY WEAK WIND SPEEDS IN THE 0-1 KM AGL LAYER /PER AREA VAD PROFILERS/ WILL TEND TO MITIGATE THIS THREAT. ..GRAMS.. 05/30/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...DDC...GLD...AMA...PUB...BOU...ABQ... 36720479 37190490 38190511 38830497 39530448 39790421 39990361 40110327 40100270 39800210 39520187 38930180 37950178 37170199 36730247 36330299 36170350 36150423 36350453 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Tue May 30 22:20:18 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Tue, 30 May 2006 18:20:18 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 302220 SWOMCD SPC MCD 302219 NHZ000-MAZ000-VTZ000-CTZ000-NYZ000-PAZ000-302315- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1034 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0519 PM CDT TUE MAY 30 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...NERN PA...ERN NY...WRN VT/MA/CT CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 422... VALID 302219Z - 302315Z ...LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS AND MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL SHOULD DEVELOP INTO THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY AND SRN CATSKILL MOUNTAINS OVER THE NEXT HOUR... ARC OF STRONG TO OCCASIONALLY SEVERE CONVECTION HAS BECOME ESTABLISHED ALONG LEADING EDGE OF MATURE MCS COLD POOL FROM DELAWARE COUNTY NY EWD ACROSS THE HUDSON VALLEY TO BERKSHIRE COUNTY MA. COMPLEX OF STORMS WAS MOVING SOUTH AT ABOUT 30KT AND WILL CONTINUE TO ENCOUNTER WARM AND UNSTABLE BOUNDARY LAYER AIR MASS...PRIMARILY FROM NERN PA TO SERN NY OVER THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS. DESPITE GENERALLY WEAK MID LEVEL FLOW...DIURNAL HEATING AND SOME CONVECTIVE-SCALE ORGANIZATION TO THE COMPLEX...COUPLED WITH MODEST DCAPE VALUES...WILL MAINTAIN THE THREAT OF LOCALLY DAMAGING DOWNBURST WINDS...AND SOME HAIL...INTO THE SRN PORTION OF WATCH 422. GIVEN GENERALLY WEAK LARGE SCALE FORCING AND SHEAR...AND TIME OF DAY...AN ADDITIONAL WATCH DOES NOT APPEAR LIKELY AT THIS TIME. ..CARBIN.. 05/30/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...GYX...BOX...BTV...OKX...ALY...PHI...BGM...BUF... 41457338 41397473 41037522 41517608 42637599 43347572 44067521 44097406 43237225 41507277 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Tue May 30 23:53:29 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Tue, 30 May 2006 19:53:29 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 302353 SWOMCD SPC MCD 302352 KSZ000-OKZ000-TXZ000-NMZ000-310115- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1035 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0652 PM CDT TUE MAY 30 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...TX PANHANDLE...NW OK...SERN KS CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 423... VALID 302352Z - 310115Z TWO MCSS...ONE ACROSS TX PANHANDLE AND ANOTHER IN SERN KS...WITH AN ISOLATED SUPERCELL IN BETWEEN ACROSS NWRN OK WILL CONTINUE TO MAKE VERY SLOW PROGRESS EWD/SWD. SEVERE THREAT SHOULD CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS...WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS ACROSS THE TX PANHANDLE INTO NWRN OK. TRANSITION TO A HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT HAS ALREADY OCCURRED WITH SERN KS MCS AND IS LIKELY OCCURRING WITH TX PANHANDLE MCS. EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS WITHIN LARGER MCS ACROSS TX PANHANDLE HAVE A HISTORY OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND REPORTS. ACTIVITY SHOULD SPREAD VERY SLOWLY EWD/BACKBUILD SWWD IN AXIS OF 1000 TO 2000 J/KG MLCAPES. MOST INTENSE CELLS SHOULD BE ACROSS BAILEY/CASTRO/SWISHER COUNTIES NEWD TO HEMPHILL/WHEELER COUNTIES OVER THE NEXT HOUR. ISOLATED SWD MOVING SUPERCELL IN BECKHAM COUNTY OK SHOULD CONTINUE TO POSE A LARGE HAIL THREAT FOR THE NEXT HOUR OR SO...WHILE BEING ABSORBED INTO TX PANHANDLE MCS. FURTHER NE...VIS IMAGERY HAS SHOWN THE COLD POOL OUTFLOW FROM THE LINEAR MCS ACROSS SERN KS HAS PUSH OUT AHEAD OF THE MAIN CONVECTIVE LINE. THIS IS LIKELY RESPONSIBLE FOR THE WEAKENING TREND OVER THE PAST HOUR OF THE LINEAR MCS. ALTHOUGH ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT IS OCCURRING THIS COLD POOL...VERY WEAK DEEP LAYER SHEAR SHOULD PRECLUDE AN ADDITIONAL WW ISSUANCE DOWNSTREAM. HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT WILL REMAIN DUE TO THE SLOW MOVEMENT OF THE MCS. ..GRAMS.. 05/30/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...TSA...TOP...ICT...OUN...LUB...AMA...ABQ... 35530302 36010200 36690068 36949957 36969839 37119774 37729711 38629606 38419558 37809568 36949594 36549669 35989772 35209889 34819959 34460006 34060124 33850214 33820305 WWWW From Mcd at goshenarc.org Wed May 3 23:35:46 2006 From: Mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Wed, 03 May 2006 19:35:46 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 032335 SWOMCD SPC MCD 032334 TNZ000-ALZ000-KYZ000-MSZ000-ILZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-040100- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0745 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0634 PM CDT WED MAY 03 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTHERN MO/WESTERN KY/WESTERN INTO MIDDLE TN/MUCH OF AR/NORTHERN MS CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 282...283... VALID 032334Z - 040100Z VALID PORTION OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 282 CONTINUES UNTIL 01Z...A WATCH REPLACEMENT MAY BE NEEDED ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN MO AND PERHAPS NORTHERN AR. SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 283 CONTINUES UNTIL 02Z. SATELLITE DIAGNOSTICS FEATURE REMNANT MCV OVER EASTERN AR. IN THE EASTERN PORTION OF WATCHES 282/283...STRONG/SEVERE STORMS ARE ESPECIALLY FOCUSED AT THIS TIME ON THE PERIPHERY OF THIS MCV AND IN VICINITY OF OUTFLOW/WARM FRONT CONJUNCTION...NAMELY ACROSS FAR SOUTHWEST KY INTO WESTERN TN AND FAR NORTHERN MS. IN THESE AREAS...AMBIENT AIRMASS REMAINS MODERATELY UNSTABLE AND SUPPORTIVE OF SEVERE STORMS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. ACROSS SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 282...SUPERCELL NOW ENTERING FAR SOUTHWEST MO...WITH ADDITIONAL DOWNSTREAM DEVELOPMENT IN SOUTH CENTRAL MO. AHEAD OF THE SYNOPTIC COLD FRONT...STORM ROTATION MAY CONTINUE TO BE ENHANCED ALONG RESIDUAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARY AS STORMS MOVE SE ACROSS SOUTHWEST MO IN THE SHORT TERM. OVERALL PRIMARY THREAT WILL REMAIN LARGE HAIL. GIVEN SCHEDULED 01Z EXPIRATION OF WW 282...A WATCH REISSUANCE MAY BE NEEDED ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN MO AND PERHAPS NORTHERN AR. ..GUYER.. 05/03/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...OHX...HUN...PAH...MEG...JAN...LSX...LZK...SGF...TSA... 37169434 38079334 37689028 36248680 35028728 34069032 33899241 34369286 35529253 36399334 WWWW From Mcd at goshenarc.org Wed May 3 23:39:55 2006 From: Mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Wed, 03 May 2006 19:39:55 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 032339 SWOMCD SPC MCD 032338 MOZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-040115- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0746 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0638 PM CDT WED MAY 03 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...NRN OK/S CENTRAL AND SERN KS CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 284... VALID 032338Z - 040115Z SEVERE THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS PARTS OF SRN KS/NRN OK. CLUSTER OF STRONG/SEVERE STORMS CONTINUES MOVING EWD OUT OF FAR SERN KS INTO SWRN MO/WW 282. MEANWHILE...NEW STORMS HAVE BEEN SLOW TO FORM ACROSS WW 284...LIKELY DUE IN PART TO CAPPED BOUNDARY LAYER AS A RESULT OF SHORT-WAVE RIDGING/SUBSIDENCE ACROSS THIS REGION. HOWEVER...WEAK/SUBTLE SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING INTO NWRN OK ATTM APPEARS TO BE AGITATING CU FIELD ACROSS N CENTRAL AND NWRN OK -- INCLUDING A NEW RADAR ECHO OVER NWRN BLAINE COUNTY OK JUST S OF COLD FRONT. THOUGH IT APPEARS ATTM THAT GREATER THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR LATER TONIGHT AS UVV ASSOCIATED WITH APPROACHING/LARGER UPPER TROUGH SPREADS INTO THIS REGION...MORE SUBTLE VORT MAX MAY CONTRIBUTE TO A LOCAL INCREASE IN SEVERE THREAT NEAR FRONT OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. ..GOSS.. 05/03/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...SGF...EAX...TSA...ICT...OUN...DDC... 36149995 37129819 38099456 36689464 35389994 WWWW From Mcd at goshenarc.org Thu May 4 00:21:52 2006 From: Mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Wed, 03 May 2006 20:21:52 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 040021 SWOMCD SPC MCD 040020 TXZ000-OKZ000-040145- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0747 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0720 PM CDT WED MAY 03 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...TX SOUTH PLAINS/ WRN N TX NEWD INTO SWRN OK CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 285... VALID 040020Z - 040145Z SEVERE THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS WW. CLUSTER OF SEVERE STORMS CONTINUES ACROSS THE TX SOUTH PLAINS -- INVOF COLD FRONT AND AHEAD OF SWRN NM SHORT-WAVE TROUGH. EXPECT STORMS/SEVERE THREAT TO CONTINUE -- AND OVERALL STORM COVERAGE TO INCREASE -- AS LOW-LEVEL JET INTENSIFIES AHEAD OF APPROACHING TROUGH. THOUGH VEERING/SHEAR REMAINS SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS...EXPECT STORMS TO BECOME INCREASINGLY NON-DISCRETE...AND THUS MAIN THREAT WILL REMAIN LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. IN ADDITION...TENDENCY FOR SLOW STORM MOTION AND INCREASING STORM COVERAGE SUGGESTS THAT LOCALLY VERY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL OCCUR -- PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE TX SOUTH PLAINS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. ..GOSS.. 05/04/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...SJT...LUB...AMA...MAF... 34410297 35839776 33459768 32100284 WWWW From Mcd at goshenarc.org Thu May 4 00:51:31 2006 From: Mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Wed, 03 May 2006 20:51:31 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 040050 SWOMCD SPC MCD 040050 TNZ000-ALZ000-MSZ000-ARZ000-040145- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0748 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0750 PM CDT WED MAY 03 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...MUCH OF AR/NORTHERN MS INTO WESTERN/MIDDLE TN AND FAR NORTHERN AL CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 283... VALID 040050Z - 040145Z SHORT TERM SEVERE THREAT CONTINUES MAINLY ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 283 FROM WESTERN INTO MIDDLE TN. WATCH 283 IS SCHEDULED TO EXPIRE AT 02Z...AN ADDITIONAL WATCH IS NOT EXPECTED. AHEAD OF MCV CROSSING THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...STRONG/SEVERE CONVECTION CONTINUES TO PUSH EAST ACROSS WESTERN/MIDDLE TN AND FAR NORTHERN PORTIONS OF MS/AL. IMMEDIATELY AHEAD OF THE SURFACE COLD POOL/MCS ACROSS SOUTHWEST KY/WESTERN TN...A NARROW WEDGE OF MODERATE INSTABILITY EXISTS ACROSS MIDDLE TN AND EXTREME NORTHERN AL...REFERENCE 00Z NASHVILLE OBSERVED RAOB -- 1400 J/KG MLCAPE. MCV/COLD POOL ORGANIZATION INTO UNSTABLE AIRMASS SUGGESTS THE SEVERE THREAT WILL CONTINUE INTO MIDDLE TN/EXTREME NORTHERN AL OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO. OTHERWISE...A DECREASING SEVERE THREAT IS EXPECTED VIA A STABILIZING BOUNDARY LAYER/LACK OF LARGE SCALE FORCING...THUS IT APPEARS WW 283 WILL EXPIRE AS SCHEDULED AT 02Z. ..GUYER.. 05/04/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...OHX...HUN...MEG...JAN...LZK... 33669103 35029172 36628692 35238623 34718719 34408859 WWWW From Mcd at goshenarc.org Thu May 4 02:46:56 2006 From: Mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Wed, 03 May 2006 22:46:56 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 040246 SWOMCD SPC MCD 040246 TXZ000-OKZ000-040415- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0749 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0946 PM CDT WED MAY 03 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...SWRN OK/WRN N TX AND THE TX SOUTH PLAINS INTO THE TRANSPECOS REGION CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 285... VALID 040246Z - 040415Z SEVERE THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS PARTS OF WW...AND SHOULD SPREAD S OF WATCH IN THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO. WW WILL LIKELY BE REPLACED PRIOR TO ITS SCHEDULED 04/04Z EXPIRATION. MCC HAS EVOLVED ACROSS THE TX PANHANDLE AND INTO WRN N TX AND THE S PLAINS...WITH MOST INTENSE STORM CLUSTER -- AND MESOSCALE CIRCULATION CENTER -- OVER DICKENS/KING/GARZA/KENT/STONEWALL COUNTIES IN THE TX SOUTH PLAINS. EXTENSIVE DAMAGE AND MEASURED WIND GUSTS OVER 80 MPH HAVE BEEN REPORTED IN THIS AREA. WITH SELY LOW-LEVEL JET INCREASING...EXPECT STORMS TO CONTINUE DEVELOPING NEAR AND TO THE COOL SIDE OF OUTFLOW-ENHANCED COLD FRONT MOVING SWD ACROSS THE TX SOUTH PLAINS. GIVEN DEGREE OF INSTABILITY /2000 TO 3000 J/KG MEAN-LAYER CAPE/ AND SHEAR...SEVERE THREAT MAY CONTINUE FOR SEVERAL HOURS. ..GOSS.. 05/04/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...SJT...LUB...AMA...MAF... 32980284 35140084 35539926 34189777 33489769 32159778 31330130 32080287 WWWW From Mcd at goshenarc.org Thu May 4 03:11:58 2006 From: Mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Wed, 03 May 2006 23:11:58 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 040307 SWOMCD SPC MCD 040307 TXZ000-040430- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0750 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1007 PM CDT WED MAY 03 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...RIO GRANDE VALLEY CONCERNING...CONVECTIVE TRENDS VALID 040307Z - 040430Z LIMITED SEVERE THREAT MAY SPREAD E OF THE RIO GRANDE INTO TX...BUT WW LIKELY NOT REQUIRED AS OVERALL WEAKENING TREND WITH ONGOING CONVECTION SHOULD PERSIST. LATEST RADAR SHOWS STORMS MOVING OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NRN MEXICO AND INTO THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY ATTM...WHERE FAVORABLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS REMAINS IN PLACE. THOUGH MID-LEVEL FLOW REMAINS FAIRLY WEAK IN THIS REGION /AROUND 20 KT/...VEERING EVIDENT IN LOW-LEVEL WIND FIELD REMAINS SUPPORTIVE OF AT LEAST SOME STORM ORGANIZATION. WITH A FAIRLY STRONG SHORT-WAVE TROUGH NOW MOVING EWD TOWARD THE TX BIG BEND PER LATEST WV IMAGERY...INCREASING LARGE-SCALE UVV MAY ALLOW A FEW STORMS TO LINGER/MOVE INTO THE EDWARDS PLATEAU/HILL COUNTRY REGION...ACCOMPANIED BY A LOCAL THREAT FOR HAIL/BRIEF DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. ..GOSS.. 05/04/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...CRP...EWX... 29900166 30260042 30039927 29139857 27739902 27669971 28260025 29020059 WWWW From Mcd at goshenarc.org Thu May 4 03:15:13 2006 From: Mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Wed, 03 May 2006 23:15:13 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 040314 SWOMCD SPC MCD 040314 MOZ000-ARZ000-040445- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0751 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1014 PM CDT WED MAY 03 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...SRN MO/N-CNTRL AR CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 286... VALID 040314Z - 040445Z OVERALL WEAKENING TREND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. WW 286 MAY BE CANCELLED BEFORE ITS 06Z EXPIRATION TIME. AN ADDITIONAL WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED DOWNSTREAM OF WW 286. LINEAR MCS WHICH HAS HAD A HISTORY OF WIND DAMAGE IS NOW INTO ERN PORTIONS OF WW 286. THE MCS WEAKENED IN THE PAST HOUR AS EFFECTS OF PREVIOUS CONVECTION EARLIER TODAY ALONG WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING HAVE WORKED TO STABILIZE THE ATMOSPHERE. LATEST RUC ANALYSES INDICATE EVEN GREATER STABILITY AND INCREASING CIN FURTHER E...THUS THIS WEAKENING TREND WILL LIKELY CONTINUE. ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT INTO NRN AR IS POSSIBLE...AT THE EDGE OF A 30-35 KT LLJ /PER LZK AND SHV VAD PROFILERS/. HOWEVER...MID AND UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING IN THE WAKE OF MCV IN THE TN RIVER VALLEY AND AHEAD OF LARGE MCS IN TX PANHANDLE...WILL LIKELY MITIGATE SUSTAINED REDEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT. ..GRAMS.. 05/04/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...PAH...MEG...LSX...LZK...SGF... 36569270 37039240 37629203 37829152 37749017 37279004 36679024 36119076 35689160 35729248 36129301 WWWW From Mcd at goshenarc.org Thu May 4 03:16:07 2006 From: Mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Wed, 03 May 2006 23:16:07 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 040307 SWOMCD SPC MCD 040307 TXZ000-040430- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0750 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1007 PM CDT WED MAY 03 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...RIO GRANDE VALLEY CONCERNING...CONVECTIVE TRENDS VALID 040307Z - 040430Z LIMITED SEVERE THREAT MAY SPREAD E OF THE RIO GRANDE INTO TX...BUT WW LIKELY NOT REQUIRED AS OVERALL WEAKENING TREND WITH ONGOING CONVECTION SHOULD PERSIST. LATEST RADAR SHOWS STORMS MOVING OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NRN MEXICO AND INTO THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY ATTM...WHERE FAVORABLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS REMAINS IN PLACE. THOUGH MID-LEVEL FLOW REMAINS FAIRLY WEAK IN THIS REGION /AROUND 20 KT/...VEERING EVIDENT IN LOW-LEVEL WIND FIELD REMAINS SUPPORTIVE OF AT LEAST SOME STORM ORGANIZATION. WITH A FAIRLY STRONG SHORT-WAVE TROUGH NOW MOVING EWD TOWARD THE TX BIG BEND PER LATEST WV IMAGERY...INCREASING LARGE-SCALE UVV MAY ALLOW A FEW STORMS TO LINGER/MOVE INTO THE EDWARDS PLATEAU/HILL COUNTRY REGION...ACCOMPANIED BY A LOCAL THREAT FOR HAIL/BRIEF DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. ..GOSS.. 05/04/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...CRP...EWX... 29900166 30260042 30039927 29139857 27739902 27669971 28260025 29020059  From Mcd at goshenarc.org Thu May 4 03:20:18 2006 From: Mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Wed, 03 May 2006 23:20:18 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 040314 SWOMCD SPC MCD 040314 MOZ000-ARZ000-040445- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0751 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1014 PM CDT WED MAY 03 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...SRN MO/N-CNTRL AR CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 286... VALID 040314Z - 040445Z OVERALL WEAKENING TREND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. WW 286 MAY BE CANCELLED BEFORE ITS 06Z EXPIRATION TIME. AN ADDITIONAL WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED DOWNSTREAM OF WW 286. LINEAR MCS WHICH HAS HAD A HISTORY OF WIND DAMAGE IS NOW INTO ERN PORTIONS OF WW 286. THE MCS WEAKENED IN THE PAST HOUR AS EFFECTS OF PREVIOUS CONVECTION EARLIER TODAY ALONG WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING HAVE WORKED TO STABILIZE THE ATMOSPHERE. LATEST RUC ANALYSES INDICATE EVEN GREATER STABILITY AND INCREASING CIN FURTHER E...THUS THIS WEAKENING TREND WILL LIKELY CONTINUE. ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT INTO NRN AR IS POSSIBLE...AT THE EDGE OF A 30-35 KT LLJ /PER LZK AND SHV VAD PROFILERS/. HOWEVER...MID AND UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING IN THE WAKE OF MCV IN THE TN RIVER VALLEY AND AHEAD OF LARGE MCS IN TX PANHANDLE...WILL LIKELY MITIGATE SUSTAINED REDEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT. ..GRAMS.. 05/04/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...PAH...MEG...LSX...LZK...SGF... 36569270 37039240 37629203 37829152 37749017 37279004 36679024 36119076 35689160 35729248 36129301  From Mcd at goshenarc.org Thu May 4 06:27:29 2006 From: Mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Thu, 04 May 2006 02:27:29 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 040626 SWOMCD SPC MCD 040626 OKZ000-040800- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0752 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0126 AM CDT THU MAY 04 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL AND NRN OK CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...HEAVY RAINFALL VALID 040626Z - 040800Z HAIL AND HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL ARE INCREASING ACROSS PARTS OF CNTRL AND NRN OK THIS MORNING. WHILE OVERALL STORM COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE...THIS MAY OCCUR AT THE EXPENSE OF MORE INTENSE UPDRAFTS. A WATCH IS NOT BEING PLANNED AT THIS TIME. TSTMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ALONG AND NORTH OF A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT SETTLING ACROSS NRN OK. MEANWHILE...MATURE MCS CIRCULATION WAS MOVING EWD FROM WCNTRL OK. BOTH THESE FEATURES...IN CONCERT WITH STRONG SLY LLJ...WILL CONTINUE TO FOCUS CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT THIS MORNING WITHIN MOIST AND MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS. A LARGER MCS MAY EVOLVE ACROSS NCNTRL OK OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS WITH THIS SYSTEM THEN SPREADING ESEWD. WEAK RIDGING ALOFT...AND GENERALLY WEAK DEEP LAYER SHEAR...ARE EXPECTED TO KEEP UPDRAFT ORGANIZATION LIMITED AND LARGE HAIL POTENTIAL LOW. HOWEVER... INITIAL UNDISTURBED CELLS...SUCH AS ACTIVITY THAT DEVELOPED EARLIER IN MAYES COUNTY...AND STORM-SCALE INTERACTIONS/MERGERS...SUCH AS ONGOING CLUSTER ON THE COLD FRONT IN PAYNE COUNTY...COULD PRODUCE LARGE HAIL AND/OR BRIEF DAMAGING DOWNBURSTS. AT PRESENT...THE LACK OF STRONGER FORCING AND SHEAR SHOULD RESTRICT OVERALL SEVERE POTENTIAL. EXPECT HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL TO INCREASE OVER NCNTRL OK NEXT 1-2 HOURS AS MESOSCALE CIRCULATION DEVELOPS EAST ALONG THE COLD FRONT AND PROMOTES ADDITIONAL SLOW-MOVING DEEP MOIST CONVECTION. ..CARBIN.. 05/04/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...TSA...OUN... 35279658 35279686 35259763 35379811 35869851 36099852 36419734 36469559 36299498 35639496 WWWW From Mcd at goshenarc.org Thu May 4 08:20:33 2006 From: Mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Thu, 04 May 2006 04:20:33 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 040819 SWOMCD SPC MCD 040819 TXZ000-040915- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0753 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0319 AM CDT THU MAY 04 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...TX CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 287... VALID 040819Z - 040915Z MATURE MCS MOVING EWD/SEWD ACROSS NWRN TX HAS BECOME OUTFLOW DOMINANT ON THE SRN EDGE WITH A MARKED DECREASE IN VIL INTENSITY AND SHRINKING COVERAGE OF COLDEST CLOUD TOPS ON IR IMAGERY. LOW LEVEL INFLOW INTO AND ACROSS THE ERN LEADING EDGE OF THE COLD POOL COULD STILL MAINTAIN STOUT UPDRAFTS ACROSS PALO PINTO AND ERATH COUNTIES OVER THE NEXT HOUR. GIVEN STRONG MESOHIGH...AVAILABLE INSTABILITY... AND WELL DEVELOPED COLD POOL EMBEDDED WITHIN WEAK DEEP LAYER WLY FLOW...STRONG STORMS MAY MAKE IT TO THE WRN EDGE OF THE DFW METROPLEX IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. LATEST TRENDS SUGGEST SEVERE POTENTIAL WITH THIS CONVECTION WILL REMAIN TOO LOW FOR AN ADDITIONAL WATCH. ..CARBIN.. 05/04/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...EWX...SJT...MAF... 32199687 30929753 30499914 30660009 31150150 31870140 32450014 33079900 33479816 33519750 33209736 WWWW From Mcd at goshenarc.org Thu May 4 18:53:58 2006 From: Mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Thu, 04 May 2006 14:53:58 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 041853 SWOMCD SPC MCD 041852 TXZ000-NMZ000-042045- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0756 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0152 PM CDT THU MAY 04 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...SRN PORTIONS OF WRN TX THROUGH EXTREME SERN NM CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 041852Z - 042045Z POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORM INITIATION IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON ACROSS SRN PORTIONS OF WRN TX. SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING VERY LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREAT. ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE. A WW MAY BE NEEDED BY 21Z. EARLY THIS AFTERNOON A PRE-FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDS FROM JUST S OF ABILENE WNW TO NEAR BIG SPRING AND FARTHER W TO E OF HOBBS NM. A DRYLINE EXTENDS FROM JUST W OF SANDERSON NWD TO W OF MIDLAND. THE WARM SECTOR CONTINUES TO DESTABILIZE. SURFACE HEATING...DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S AND MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES IN EXCESS OF 8 C/KM ARE CONTRIBUTING TO MLCAPE FROM 1500 TO 2500 J/KG. THE ATMOSPHERE IS STILL CAPPED TO SURFACE BASED STORMS...AND THE 18Z RAOB FROM MIDLAND STILL SHOWED AN INVERSION BETWEEN 850 AND 700 MB ASSOCIATED WITH THE EML. HOWEVER...PERSISTENT STRONG HEATING OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD CONTINUE TO WEAKEN THE CAP. RECENT VISIBLE IMAGERY HAS SHOWN AN INCREASE IN BOUNDARY LAYER CUMULUS OVER PORTIONS OF SWRN TX DURING THE LAST HOUR. WEAK BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW...PRESENCE OF CAP...AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING SUGGEST THUNDERSTORM INITIATION MAY BE DELAYED UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON WHEN HEATING WILL HAVE WEAKENED THE CAP SUFFICIENTLY FOR STORMS TO INITIATE ALONG THE CONVERGENCE BOUNDARY. WIND FIELDS THROUGH 3 KM WILL REMAIN RATHER WEAK. HOWEVER...VERTICAL SHEAR AROUND 35 KT THROUGH THE MID LEVELS WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS GIVEN POTENTIAL FOR STRONG UPDRAFTS IMPLIED BY THE STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND MODERATE INSTABILITY. ..DIAL.. 05/04/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...FWD...SJT...LUB...MAF... 32439910 31529943 31450150 32330349 33040341 32890148 33049992 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Thu May 4 22:23:09 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Thu, 04 May 2006 18:23:09 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 042222 SWOMCD SPC MCD 042222 TXZ000-NMZ000-COZ000-050015- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0757 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0522 PM CDT THU MAY 04 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...NERN AND E CENTRAL NM/TX SOUTH PLAINS CONCERNING...CONVECTIVE TRENDS VALID 042222Z - 050015Z STORMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NERN NM...WITH CUMULUS SLOWLY INCREASING SWD ALONG THE MOUNTAINS INTO CENTRAL NM. WW NOT ANTICIPATED ATTM...THOUGH WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR CONVECTIVE TRENDS ACROSS THIS REGION AS LOW-LEVEL JET INTENSIFIES THIS EVENING. DAYTIME HEATING OVER NERN NM HAS RESULTED IN MARGINAL DESTABILIZATION NEAR AND S OF COLD FRONT LYING NW-SE ACROSS THE AREA. STORMS CONTINUE TO FORM OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN/NEAR FRONT...BUT MINIMAL INSTABILITY SHOULD GREATLY LIMIT SEVERE THREAT. HOWEVER...SELY LOW-LEVEL JET IS FORECAST TO INCREASE THIS EVENING...WHICH WILL LIKELY SUPPORT MORE WIDESPREAD CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. SHOULD STORMS INITIATE SWD INTO E CENTRAL NM LATER THIS EVENING WHERE MORE UNSTABLE AIRMASS /500 TO 1000 J/KG MEAN-LAYER CAPE/ IS IN PLACE...WW MAY BE REQUIRED. ..GOSS.. 05/04/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LUB...AMA...MAF...PUB...ABQ... 37020524 36770455 35500340 34610221 33080202 33110356 33910485 34910524 36160546 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Thu May 4 22:32:07 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Thu, 04 May 2006 18:32:07 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 042231 SWOMCD SPC MCD 042230 LAZ000-ARZ000-TXZ000-042330- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0758 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0530 PM CDT THU MAY 04 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...FAR SOUTHERN AR/EXTREME NORTHEAST TX INTO NORTHERN LA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 288... VALID 042230Z - 042330Z VALID PORTION OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH CONTINUES UNTIL 00Z...WITH PRIMARY THREAT REMAINING ACROSS NORTHERN LA/SOUTHEAST AR AND SHIFTING INTO WW 290. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY FEATURES REMNANT MCV MOVING ESE ACROSS AR AT THIS TIME. AT 2220Z...SEMI-ORGANIZED ASYMMETRIC MCS MOVING SOUTHEAST ALONG THE AR/LA BORDER...WITH SMALL SCALE VORTEX EVIDENT NEAR MONTICELLO IN DREW COUNTY AR...WITH TRAILING PORTION EXTENDING SOUTHWEST INTO FAR NORTHWEST/NORTH CENTRAL LA. IN ADDITION TO CONTINUAL ISOLATED SEVERE HAIL/WIND POTENTIAL WITH THIS MCS...ADDITIONAL PULSE-TYPE ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE SOUTH OF WW 288 AS AMBIENT AIRMASS REMAINS MODERATELY UNSTABLE ON THE FRINGE OF THE MCS. GIVEN EVENTUAL SOUTHEAST MOVEMENT OUT OF WATCH 288...AND NO ADDITIONAL SEVERE THREAT EXPECTED VIA DEVELOPMENT ABOVE COLD POOL PER MCV-WAKE SHORTWAVE RIDGING...IT APPEARS WW 288 WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AS SCHEDULED AT 00Z. ..GUYER.. 05/04/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LZK...SHV... 32539436 33349441 33199304 33719218 31789240 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Fri May 5 00:25:19 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Thu, 04 May 2006 20:25:19 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 050024 SWOMCD SPC MCD 050024 TXZ000-NMZ000-050200- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0759 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0724 PM CDT THU MAY 04 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...THE TRANSPECOS REGION OF W TX INTO CENTRAL TX CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 289... VALID 050024Z - 050200Z SEVERE THREAT -- MAINLY IN THE FORM OF LARGE HAIL -- CONTINUES ACROSS THE WW AREA. COLD FRONT CONTINUES PUSHING SWD/SSWWD ACROSS WW...SUPPORTING REDEVELOPMENT OF STORM UPDRAFTS WITHIN SMALL CLUSTER OF SEVERE STORMS OVER CENTRAL TX. MEANWHILE...NEW STORMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP N OF FRONT ACROSS SRN PORTIONS OF THE SOUTH PLAINS INTO THE TRANSPECOS REGION. MODERATE INSTABILITY PERSISTS ACROSS THIS REGION...AND PRONOUNCED VEERING WITH HEIGHT -- PARTICULARLY N OF FRONT -- IS CONTRIBUTING TO SHEAR SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELL STORMS. THIS IS CONFIRMED BY EVENING MAF /MIDLAND TX/ RAOB...WHICH REVEALS 1700 J/KG MEAN-LAYER CAPE AND 49 KT SFC-6 KM SHEAR. THUS EXPECT THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS -- CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS -- TO PERSIST...AND PERHAPS INCREASE IN COVERAGE AS LOW-LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. ..GOSS.. 05/05/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...HGX...FWD...EWX...SJT...LUB...MAF... 33410291 31679688 29789692 30940261 31900322 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Fri May 5 02:14:05 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Thu, 04 May 2006 22:14:05 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 050213 SWOMCD SPC MCD 050212 TXZ000-050345- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0760 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0912 PM CDT THU MAY 04 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF WRN AND CENTRAL TX CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 289... VALID 050212Z - 050345Z SEVERE THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS WW...AND IS SPREADING SWD. NEW WW MAY BE REQUIRED...REPLACING WW 289. LATEST RADAR SHOWS SEVERE STORMS CONTINUING IN AND NEAR WW 289...WHERE FAVORABLY UNSTABLE/SHEARED ENVIRONMENT EXISTS. AS OUTFLOW-REINFORCED FRONT CONTINUES MOVING SWD WITH STORMS FORMING JUST TO THE COOL SIDE OF BOUNDARY...IT APPEARS THAT THREAT MAY SPREAD S OF WW 289 WITH TIME AS LOW-LEVEL JET CONTINUES TO INCREASE. GIVEN FAVORABLE INSTABILITY S OF WW...THREAT MAY SPREAD SWD ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY INTO PARTS OF S TX. ..GOSS.. 05/05/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...HGX...FWD...CRP...EWX...SJT...LUB...MAF... 33840236 32329959 32319700 29719676 28449876 29310074 32070282 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Fri May 5 06:26:09 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Fri, 05 May 2006 02:26:09 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 050625 SWOMCD SPC MCD 050625 TXZ000-050830- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0761 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0125 AM CDT FRI MAY 05 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...NORTH CENTRAL TX CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 050625Z - 050830Z ...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL SPREAD INTO THE METROPLEX OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS... MCS HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS THE WRN PORTIONS OF NCNTRL TX FROM YOUNG/STEPHENS COUNTIES INTO WISE COUNTY. AN APPARENT MVC HAS EVOLVED WITHIN THIS CLUSTER ALONG THE YOUNG/STEPHENS COUNTY LINE WHICH MAY BE AIDING N-S LINE SEGMENT THAT IS MOVING EAST AT ROUGHLY 30KT. FWS VAD WINDS ARE SEEMINGLY SUPPORTIVE OF THIS TYPE OF CONVECTIVE EVOLUTION AS WINDS VEER CONSIDERABLY WITH HEIGHT...SUGGESTING WARM ADVECTION PERSISTS ACROSS THIS REGION. UNLESS N-S LINE SEGMENT WERE TO BOW AND FORCE STRONG WINDS TO THE SFC WW SHOULD NOT BE REQUIRED FOR ISOLATED LARGE HAIL-PRODUCING UPDRAFTS. ..DARROW.. 05/05/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...FWD... 33329887 33229669 32379659 32399886 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Fri May 5 17:00:39 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Fri, 05 May 2006 13:00:39 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 051659 SWOMCD SPC MCD 051659 SCZ000-GAZ000-051900- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0762 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1159 AM CDT FRI MAY 05 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL AND SRN GA THROUGH PARTS OF WRN SC CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 051659Z - 051900Z THUNDERSTORMS MAY BECOME CAPABLE OF PRODUCING ISOLATED STRONG TO DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL THIS AFTERNOON. AREA WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED. AN MCV OVER NRN AL WILL MOVE EWD INTO NRN GA TODAY. THE ATMOSPHERE IS DESTABILIZING ACROSS MUCH OF GA WITH STRONG SURFACE HEATING AND DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 60S. HOWEVER...OVERALL DEGREE OF INSTABILITY WILL BE LIMITED BY MARGINAL MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WITH MLCAPE GENERALLY AROUND 1500 J/KG EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON. FORCING FOR ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE MCV AND WEAK CAP SHOULD CONTINUE TO PROMOTE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS MUCH OF GA AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER DESTABILIZES. AMBIENT WIND AND VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES ARE UNIDIRECTIONAL WLY AND RATHER WEAK. A 30-40 KT MID LEVEL JET ON THE SRN PERIPHERY OF THE MCS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO SLIGHTLY BETTER DEEP LAYER SHEAR ACROSS PARTS OF CNTRL AND S CNTRL GA. HOWEVER...STORM MODE SHOULD REMAIN PRIMARILY MULTICELLULAR WITH POTENTIAL FOR STORMS TO EVOLVE INTO SMALL CLUSTERS OR LINE SEGMENTS AS THEY SPREAD EWD. THOUGH SOME HAIL MAY ACCOMPANY THE STRONGER CORES...THE WEAK MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND MODEST INSTABILITY SHOULD LIMIT HAIL SIZE. PRIMARY THREAT IS EXPECTED TO BE ISOLATED STRONG TO DAMAGING WIND GUSTS PROMOTED BY INVERTED-V BOUNDARY LAYERS. ACTIVITY WILL DEVELOP EWD INTO SC LATER THIS AFTERNOON. ..DIAL.. 05/05/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...CHS...CAE...JAX...FFC...TAE... 31018454 32458431 33318461 33818384 33838224 32958102 31468160 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Fri May 5 17:35:18 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Fri, 05 May 2006 13:35:18 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 051734 SWOMCD SPC MCD 051733 LAZ000-MSZ000-051830- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0763 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1233 PM CDT FRI MAY 05 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF SRN LA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 051733Z - 051830Z SCT TSTMS DEVELOPING OVER THE AREA MAY POSE A THREAT FOR DMGG WINDS AND SVR HAIL. A WW MAY BE NEEDED SHORTLY. LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS AN OUTFLOW BNDRY EXTENDING FROM AVOYELLES PARISH SEWD TOWARDS TERREBONNE PARISH. CONVECTION WAS DEVELOPING ALONG THIS BDRY AND ALSO ALONG THE GULF BREEZE FRONT OVER SCENTRAL/SWRN LA. MODERATE INSTABILITY HAS DEVELOPED WEST OF THE OUTFLOW BNDRY WITH MLCAPES FROM 1500-2000 J/KG OVER MUCH OF SRN LA. MODERATE MID LEVEL FLOW NOTED ON AREA VWP/S ON THE SRN PERIPHERY OF AN MCV OVER NRN LA ALONG WITH ELY LOW LEVEL FLOW ALONG THE OUTFLOW SHOULD SUPPORT AROUND 35 KTS OF EFFECTIVE SHEAR. THIS MAY SUPPORT LOOSELY ORGANIZED UPDRAFTS THAT EXHIBIT BRIEF SUPERCELLULAR STRUCTURE GIVEN THE INSTABILITY IN PLACE. SEWD STORM MOTIONS ALONG THE OUTFLOW BNDRY COMBINED WITH STABLE AIR EAST OF THE OUTFLOW BDRY OVER SERN LA WILL LIMIT THE THREAT FOR SVR STORMS EAST/NORTH OF LAKE PONCHARTRAIN. ..CROSBIE.. 05/05/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...JAN...LIX...LCH... 31179263 31069161 30709095 29978989 29468924 29068959 29189111 29589209 29699332 29909368 30979276 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Fri May 5 17:37:36 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Fri, 05 May 2006 13:37:36 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 051736 SWOMCD SPC MCD 051736 TXZ000-NMZ000-051900- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0764 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1236 PM CDT FRI MAY 05 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...SERN NM THROUGH PART OF SWRN TX CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 051736Z - 051900Z THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS SERN NM INTO PARTS OF SWRN TX BY MID AFTERNOON. SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING VERY LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREATS. A TORNADO WATCH WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR THIS AREA BY 18-19Z. EARLY THIS AFTERNOON A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM N CNTRL TX WSWWD INTO SWRN TX NEAR MIDLAND THEN NWWD AS A STATIONARY FRONT INTO SERN NM. AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY EXTENDS FROM S CNTRL TX NWWD TO NEAR SAN ANGELO TO NEAR BIG SPRING WHERE IT INTERSECTS THE COLD FRONT. THE 12Z RAOB FROM MIDLAND SHOWS 8 C/KM 700-500 MB LAPSE RATES AND SUGGESTS THE CAP SHOULD BE SUFFICIENTLY WEAK FOR INITIATION IN THE VICINITY OF THE BOUNDARIES AS TEMPERATURES APPROACH 80 F. WITH STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES IN PLACE ABOVE AN AXIS OF 55-60 F DEWPOINTS...THE ATMOSPHERE WILL CONTINUE TO DESTABILIZE WITH MLCAPE FROM 2500 TO 3000 J/KG POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON. WV IMAGERY SHOWS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING EWD THROUGH NM. FORCING FOR ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE WILL GRADUALLY SPREAD EWD THROUGH THE HIGH PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON. THIS IN CONJUNCTION WITH UPSLOPE SELY COMPONENT ACROSS SERN NM SHOULD SUPPORT THUNDERSTORM INITIATION OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. OTHER STORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP FARTHER SE ALONG SURFACE BOUNDARIES ACROSS SWRN TX AND EXTREME SERN NM. LOW LEVEL AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR PROFILES WILL SUPPORT SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING VERY LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED TORNADOES. TORNADO THREAT MAY BE ENHANCED WHERE STORMS INTERACT WITH THE PRE-EXISTING BOUNDARIES. ..DIAL.. 05/05/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...SJT...LUB...MAF...ABQ...EPZ... 30840000 31250294 32080437 33310540 33770441 32560237 31689972 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Fri May 5 20:15:13 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Fri, 05 May 2006 16:15:13 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 052014 SWOMCD SPC MCD 052013 LAZ000-052145- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0765 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0313 PM CDT FRI MAY 05 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...SCENTRAL/SWRN LA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 292... VALID 052013Z - 052145Z SVR THREAT HAS DIMINISHED OVER NERN PORTION OF WW 292. A MARGINAL SVR THREAT WILL LIKELY CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT FEW HRS OVER WRN PORTIONS OF WW 292...WITH SOME POTENTIAL FOR NEW ISOLATED SVR DEVELOPMENT JUST WEST OF WW 292 IN SWRN/WCENTRAL LA. SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY MAY MOVE INTO WW 292 BEFORE 23Z. LATEST VISIBLE SAT IMAGERY SHOWS A STABILIZED AIRMASS OVER NERN PORTION OF WW 292 /NORTH OF THE BTR AREA/ CREATED IN THE WAKE OF EARLIER SVR STORMS. WITH LACK OF A WELL DEFINED BOUNDARY... ADDITIONAL SVR THREAT APPEARS LIMITED IN THIS REGION AND THE AREA WILL LIKELY BE CLEARED SHORTLY FROM WW 292. A MORE DEFINED SVR THREAT REMAINS OVER SCENTRAL LA ALONG OUTFLOW/GULF BREEZE BOUNDARY INTERSECTIONS...AS CONVERGENCE ENHANCES UPDRAFT STRENGTH. MODEST MID LEVEL FLOW WILL REMAIN IN AREA IN THE WAKE OF AN MCV MOVING INTO SWRN MS ALSO SUPPORTING THE SVR THREAT. THERE WILL ALSO BE AN ISOLATED SVR THREAT ALONG THE OLD OUTFLOW BNDRY/FRONTAL INTERSECTION FURTHER WEST OVER WCENTRAL LA. HOWEVER...A NEW WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED WEST OF WW 292 GIVEN THE EXPECTED MARGINAL NATURE OF THIS SVR THREAT. ..CROSBIE.. 05/05/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LIX...LCH... 29199195 30079258 30489317 31079342 31249296 31089207 30809157 30239091 29249015 29189028 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Fri May 5 20:36:04 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Fri, 05 May 2006 16:36:04 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 052035 SWOMCD SPC MCD 052034 TXZ000-052230- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0766 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0334 PM CDT FRI MAY 05 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...SRN PORTIONS OF SWRN TX THROUGH PART OF S TX CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 052034Z - 052230Z THUNDERSTORMS MAY INTENSIFY AS THEY SPREAD EWD OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN NEAR THE BIG BEND AREA OF SWRN TX. SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL AND AN ISOLATED TORNADO OR TWO WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS. PORTIONS OF S TX BETWEEN SAN ANTONIO AND HONDO ARE ALSO BEING MONITORED FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. A WW MIGHT BE NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF THESE AREAS WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO. THIS AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS WERE DEVELOPING OVER THE MOUNTAINS OF SWRN TX JUST E OF MARA. THE ATMOSPHERE CONTINUES TO DESTABILIZE JUST E OF THIS ACTIVITY WITH STRONG SURFACE HEATING...STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 60S SUPPORTING MLCAPE FROM 2000 TO 2500 J/KG. SELY LOW LEVEL FLOW AND WEAKENING CAP MAY HELP TO SUSTAIN ACTIVITY AS IT MOVES EWD. FARTHER E...AN OLD CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY EXTENDS ACROSS PARTS OF S TX FROM NEAR HONDO NWWD TO NEAR SAN ANGELO. CUMULUS CONTINUES TO INCREASE IN THE VICINITY OF THIS BOUNDARY WHERE THE CAP IS WEAKENING AND THE ATMOSPHERE IS MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH MLCAPE FROM 2000 TO 2500 J/KG. IF INITIATION OCCURS...SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL AND POSSIBLY AN ISOLATED TORNADO OR TWO WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREATS. ..DIAL.. 05/05/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...EWX...SJT...MAF... 28869902 29229990 29780140 29830266 30230299 30640285 30840233 30310150 30109923 29279838 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Fri May 5 20:36:20 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Fri, 05 May 2006 16:36:20 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 052035 SWOMCD SPC MCD 052035 TXZ000-052230- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0767 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0335 PM CDT FRI MAY 05 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...SRN PORTIONS OF SWRN TX THROUGH PART OF S TX CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 052035Z - 052230Z THUNDERSTORMS MAY INTENSIFY AS THEY SPREAD EWD OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN NEAR THE BIG BEND AREA OF SWRN TX. SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL AND AN ISOLATED TORNADO OR TWO WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS. PORTIONS OF S TX BETWEEN SAN ANTONIO AND HONDO ARE ALSO BEING MONITORED FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. A WW MIGHT BE NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF THESE AREAS WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO. THIS AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS WERE DEVELOPING OVER THE MOUNTAINS OF SWRN TX JUST E OF MARFA. THE ATMOSPHERE CONTINUES TO DESTABILIZE JUST E OF THIS ACTIVITY WITH STRONG SURFACE HEATING...STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 60S SUPPORTING MLCAPE FROM 2000 TO 2500 J/KG. SELY LOW LEVEL FLOW AND WEAKENING CAP MAY HELP TO SUSTAIN ACTIVITY AS IT MOVES EWD. FARTHER E...AN OLD CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY EXTENDS ACROSS PARTS OF S TX FROM NEAR HONDO NWWD TO NEAR SAN ANGELO. CUMULUS CONTINUES TO INCREASE IN THE VICINITY OF THIS BOUNDARY WHERE THE CAP IS WEAKENING AND THE ATMOSPHERE IS MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH MLCAPE FROM 2000 TO 2500 J/KG. IF INITIATION OCCURS...SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL AND POSSIBLY AN ISOLATED TORNADO OR TWO WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREATS. ..DIAL.. 05/05/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...EWX...SJT...MAF... 28869902 29229990 29780140 29830266 30230299 30640285 30840233 30310150 30109923 29279838 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Fri May 5 20:38:34 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Fri, 05 May 2006 16:38:34 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 052035 SWOMCD SPC MCD 052034 TXZ000-052230- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0766 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0334 PM CDT FRI MAY 05 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...SRN PORTIONS OF SWRN TX THROUGH PART OF S TX CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 052034Z - 052230Z THUNDERSTORMS MAY INTENSIFY AS THEY SPREAD EWD OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN NEAR THE BIG BEND AREA OF SWRN TX. SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL AND AN ISOLATED TORNADO OR TWO WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS. PORTIONS OF S TX BETWEEN SAN ANTONIO AND HONDO ARE ALSO BEING MONITORED FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. A WW MIGHT BE NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF THESE AREAS WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO. THIS AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS WERE DEVELOPING OVER THE MOUNTAINS OF SWRN TX JUST E OF MARA. THE ATMOSPHERE CONTINUES TO DESTABILIZE JUST E OF THIS ACTIVITY WITH STRONG SURFACE HEATING...STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 60S SUPPORTING MLCAPE FROM 2000 TO 2500 J/KG. SELY LOW LEVEL FLOW AND WEAKENING CAP MAY HELP TO SUSTAIN ACTIVITY AS IT MOVES EWD. FARTHER E...AN OLD CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY EXTENDS ACROSS PARTS OF S TX FROM NEAR HONDO NWWD TO NEAR SAN ANGELO. CUMULUS CONTINUES TO INCREASE IN THE VICINITY OF THIS BOUNDARY WHERE THE CAP IS WEAKENING AND THE ATMOSPHERE IS MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH MLCAPE FROM 2000 TO 2500 J/KG. IF INITIATION OCCURS...SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL AND POSSIBLY AN ISOLATED TORNADO OR TWO WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREATS. ..DIAL.. 05/05/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...EWX...SJT...MAF... 28869902 29229990 29780140 29830266 30230299 30640285 30840233 30310150 30109923 29279838  From mcd at goshenarc.org Fri May 5 20:38:38 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Fri, 05 May 2006 16:38:38 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 052035 SWOMCD SPC MCD 052035 TXZ000-052230- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0767 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0335 PM CDT FRI MAY 05 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...SRN PORTIONS OF SWRN TX THROUGH PART OF S TX CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 052035Z - 052230Z THUNDERSTORMS MAY INTENSIFY AS THEY SPREAD EWD OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN NEAR THE BIG BEND AREA OF SWRN TX. SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL AND AN ISOLATED TORNADO OR TWO WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS. PORTIONS OF S TX BETWEEN SAN ANTONIO AND HONDO ARE ALSO BEING MONITORED FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. A WW MIGHT BE NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF THESE AREAS WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO. THIS AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS WERE DEVELOPING OVER THE MOUNTAINS OF SWRN TX JUST E OF MARFA. THE ATMOSPHERE CONTINUES TO DESTABILIZE JUST E OF THIS ACTIVITY WITH STRONG SURFACE HEATING...STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 60S SUPPORTING MLCAPE FROM 2000 TO 2500 J/KG. SELY LOW LEVEL FLOW AND WEAKENING CAP MAY HELP TO SUSTAIN ACTIVITY AS IT MOVES EWD. FARTHER E...AN OLD CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY EXTENDS ACROSS PARTS OF S TX FROM NEAR HONDO NWWD TO NEAR SAN ANGELO. CUMULUS CONTINUES TO INCREASE IN THE VICINITY OF THIS BOUNDARY WHERE THE CAP IS WEAKENING AND THE ATMOSPHERE IS MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH MLCAPE FROM 2000 TO 2500 J/KG. IF INITIATION OCCURS...SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL AND POSSIBLY AN ISOLATED TORNADO OR TWO WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREATS. ..DIAL.. 05/05/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...EWX...SJT...MAF... 28869902 29229990 29780140 29830266 30230299 30640285 30840233 30310150 30109923 29279838  From mcd at goshenarc.org Fri May 5 22:13:56 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Fri, 05 May 2006 18:13:56 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 052213 SWOMCD SPC MCD 052212 LAZ000-052315- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0768 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0512 PM CDT FRI MAY 05 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...SRN LA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 292... VALID 052212Z - 052315Z ISOLATED SVR STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO POSE A THREAT FOR DMGG WINDS/LARGE HAIL OVER WRN PORTIONS OF WW 292. SVR THREAT MAY EXTEND LOCALLY FOR AN HOUR OR SO BEYOND 23Z /WW 292 EXPIRATION TIME/ BUT A NEW WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED. MOST OF THE ERN HALF OF WW 219 HAS SEEN THE EFFECTS OF PREVIOUS CONVECTION HELP STABILIZE THE AIRMASS AND END THE SVR THREAT. FURTHER WEST...THE AIRMASS OVER WRN PORTIONS OF WW 292 WWD INTO SWRN/WCENTRAL LA REMAINS MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH MLCAPES AROUND 2000 J/KG. CONVECTION SHOULD CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ALONG AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY THAT WAS SLOWLY MOVING WWD OVER FAR WRN PORTIONS OF WW 292. A SVR STORM EXHIBITING SUPERCELL CHARACTERISTICS OVER WCENTRAL LA SHOULD MOVE SEWD ALONG THIS BOUNDARY AND INTO THE NWRN PORTION OF WW 292 IN THE NEXT HALF HR. AS THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO MOVE WWD IT SHOULD EVENTUALLY UNDERCUT ALL THE CONVECTION IN THE REGION. THUS THE ORGANIZED SVR THREAT SHOULD BEGIN TO DIMINISH WITHIN THE NEXT HR OR SO AND IT DOES NOT APPEAR NECESSARY FOR A NEW WW BEYOND 23Z. ..CROSBIE.. 05/05/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LIX...LCH... 31079245 31189283 31149301 30549293 30109272 29829252 29179185 29189089 29559080 29709121 29899159 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Fri May 5 23:50:59 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Fri, 05 May 2006 19:50:59 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 052349 SWOMCD SPC MCD 052349 TXZ000-NMZ000-060115- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0769 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0649 PM CDT FRI MAY 05 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...SERN NM/TX SOUTH PLAINS AND TRANSPECOS REGION INTO CENTRAL TX CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 293...294... VALID 052349Z - 060115Z SEVERE/TORNADO THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS WW 293 AND 294...AND MAY SPREAD EWD INTO CENTRAL N TX. NEW WW LIKELY WITHIN THE HOUR. THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO INCREASE -- MAINLY ON THE COOL SIDE OF SURFACE BOUNDARY EXTENDING WNW-ESE ACROSS THE TRANSPECOS AND INTO CENTRAL TX. SHEAR REMAINS QUITE FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS...WITH NUMEROUS STORMS SHOWING SUPERCELL CHARACTERISTICS. THOUGH TORNADO THREAT CONTINUES -- PARTICULARLY NEAR SURFACE FRONT...GREATER THREAT ATTM REMAINS LARGE HAIL GIVEN ELEVATED NATURE OF CONVECTION. THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS SHOULD INCREASE WITH TIME AS WELL...AS INCREASING ESELY LOW-LEVEL JET MAY ALLOW STORMS TO ORGANIZE INTO A FORWARD-PROPAGATING MCS AND MOVE RAPIDLY ESEWD ALONG FRONT. ..GOSS.. 05/05/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...EWX...SJT...LUB...AMA...MAF...ABQ... 34820390 34630190 33329676 30169906 31660377 33590422 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Sat May 6 00:28:13 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Fri, 05 May 2006 20:28:13 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 060027 SWOMCD SPC MCD 060026 TXZ000-060230- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0770 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0726 PM CDT FRI MAY 05 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...SCENTRAL/SWRN TX CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 295... VALID 060026Z - 060230Z CONTINUE ALL WW 295. ISOLATED SVR STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND MOVE ESEWD OVER PORTIONS OF WW 295 DURING THE NEXT FEW HRS...PRIMARILY ALONG AND EAST OF AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY EXTENDING N-S FROM KERR COUNTY SWD TO ATASCOSA COUNTIES. PRIMARY SVR THREAT WILL BE VERY LARGE HAIL AND DMGG WINDS...ALTHOUGH AN ISOLATED TORNADO CAN NOT BE RULED OUT. LATEST VWP FROM EWX INDICATES STRONGLY LOOPING LOW LEVEL HODOGRAPH INDICATIVE OF AN INCREASING LOW LEVEL JET. MODERATE TO EXTREME INSTABILITY WITH MLCAPES AROUND 3000 J/KG ALONG WITH MODEST DEEP LAYER SHEAR /40 KTS/ WILL SUPPORT A CONTINUED THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL/DMGG WINDS WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS. RECENT SAT IMAGERY SHOWS MDT CU ALONG AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM ATASCOSA COUNTY NWD TO KERR COUNTY INDICATING THAT ADDITIONAL SVR STORMS MIGHT DEVELOP IN THE NEXT FEW HRS IN THE ERN PORTION OF WW 295. GIVEN MORE STABLE AIR IN PLACE OVER AREAS EAST OF THE HILL COUNTRY...THE POSSIBILITY FOR AN ORGANIZED SVR THREAT EAST OF WW 295 REMAINS UNCERTAIN. HOWEVER AREA WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF ANOTHER WW IN A FEW HRS. FURTHER WEST...A LONE SUPERCELL STORM OVER TERRELL COUNTY WILL MOVE ESEWD AROUND 25 KTS AND INTO SRN CROCKETT AND NWRN VAL VERDE COUNTIES THROUGH 02Z. THE 00Z DRT SOUNDING INDICATED MINOR MLCINH. AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER CONTINUES TO COOL...THIS STORM IS NOT LIKELY TO LAST MUCH BEYOND 03Z. SAT TRENDS INDICATE A DIMINISHING THREAT FOR NEW SVR TSTM DEVELOPMENT WEST OF THIS STORM ACROSS PECOS COUNTY. THEREFORE THIS COUNTY LIKELY CAN BE CLEARED FROM WW 295 BY 0130Z. ..CROSBIE.. 05/06/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...CRP...EWX...SJT...MAF... 30720239 29130254 28719785 30639789 30719983 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Sat May 6 04:17:01 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Sat, 06 May 2006 00:17:01 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 060415 SWOMCD SPC MCD 060415 TXZ000-060545- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0771 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1115 PM CDT FRI MAY 05 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...NRN PORTIONS OF THE TRANSPECOS REGION INTO CENTRAL TX CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 297... VALID 060415Z - 060545Z SEVERE/TORNADO THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS WW -- WITH NEW WW POSSIBLE AS STORMS APPROACH THE ERN/SERN FRINGES OF WW. BOW ECHO CONTINUES MOVING ESEWD AT 30 TO 35 KT ACROSS WRN N TX...WHILE ADDITIONAL STORMS -- BOTH AHEAD OF AND BEHIND THE BOW -- CONTINUE TO DEVELOP. STRONGEST/SUPERCELLULAR CONVECTION CONTINUES AHEAD OF THE BOW ECHO...WHERE THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL PERSISTS. GREATEST THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL GENERALLY REMAIN CONFINED TO STORMS ON SRN FRINGE OF CONVECTIVE CLUSTER...CLOSER TO THE SURFACE FRONT WHERE CONVECTION IS LESS ELEVATED. THOUGH A SLOW WEAKENING TREND IS ANTICIPATED OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS STORMS ENCOUNTER LESS UNSTABLE AIRMASS IN PLACE ACROSS CENTRAL AND ERN TX...A LIMITED SEVERE THREAT WILL LIKELY PERSIST FOR SEVERAL HOURS. ..GOSS.. 05/06/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...HGX...FWD...EWX...SJT...MAF... 32930117 32619688 31329501 30529511 30549706 31110126 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Sat May 6 07:33:08 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Sat, 06 May 2006 03:33:08 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 060732 SWOMCD SPC MCD 060731 TXZ000-060900- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0772 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0231 AM CDT SAT MAY 06 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL TX CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 298...299... VALID 060731Z - 060900Z ...SEVERE SQUALL LINE WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF CENTRAL TX... AN EXPANSIVE PRECIPITATION SHIELD HAS DEVELOPED IN THE WAKE OF SEVERE SQUALL LINE ADVANCING SEWD ACROSS CNTRL TX. ALONG THE LEADING EDGE...FAST MOVING EMBEDDED ECHOES REMAIN CONDUCE TO PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS AS THEY INGEST RICHER BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE IN PLACE ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAINS. IN ADDITION...UPDRAFTS CONTINUE TO PRODUCE VERY LARGE HAIL...ALTHOUGH THERE MAY BE A SLIGHT DECREASE IN OVERALL INTENSITY OVER THE LAST HOUR OR SO. AT ANY RATE...WELL ORGANIZED MCS WILL CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE TOWARD SERN TX WHERE LLJ IS EXPECTED TO REFOCUS BY SUNRISE. IN ADDITION...FORECAST SOUNDINGS ACROSS THIS REGION EXHIBIT MUCH WEAKER INHIBITION THUS BOUNDARY LAYER CONVECTION WILL BE EASIER TO MAINTAIN ACROSS THIS REGION. ..DARROW.. 05/06/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...HGX...FWD...EWX...SJT... 30839965 30549826 30729728 31549601 30889541 29689692 29839855 30459984 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Sat May 6 11:49:42 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Sat, 06 May 2006 07:49:42 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 061148 SWOMCD SPC MCD 061148 LAZ000-TXZ000-061245- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0773 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0648 AM CDT SAT MAY 06 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...SERN TX...SWRN LA CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 299... VALID 061148Z - 061245Z ...SQUALL LINE WILL PROGRESS ACROSS SERN TX INTO SWRN LA OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME... LIMITED INSTABILITY DOWNSTREAM FROM ADVANCING MCS WILL PROVE DETRIMENTAL TO UPDRAFT INTENSITY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS PORTIONS OF LA WHERE MUCAPE IS GENERALLY AOB 1000J/KG. BROKEN SQUALL LINE HAS RECENTLY PRODUCED SEVERE WIND GUSTS IN THE GREATER HOUSTON AREA...HOWEVER THESE HIGH WINDS WERE ASSOCIATED WITH STRONGEST CONVECTIVE SURGE THAT SHOULD MOVE OFF THE UPPER TX COAST WITHIN THE HOUR. EWD PUSH INTO LA WILL BE MUCH WEAKER...AND GIVEN INSTABILITY TRENDS THERE IS NO REASON TO BELIEVE SQUALL LINE WILL MAINTAIN SEVERE INTENSITY...OR DEVELOP DAMAGING WINDS PRIOR TO BOUNDARY LAYER HEATING LATER THIS MORNING. AT THIS TIME DO NOT ANTICIPATE ISSUING A WATCH FOR THIS ACTIVITY. ..DARROW.. 05/06/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LCH...SHV...HGX... 29349511 31199426 31509324 29609254 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Sat May 6 15:06:10 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Sat, 06 May 2006 11:06:10 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 061504 SWOMCD SPC MCD 061503 MSZ000-LAZ000-061700- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0774 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1003 AM CDT SAT MAY 06 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...S CNTRL THROUGH SERN LA THROUGH EXTREME SRN MS CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 061503Z - 061700Z THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN INTENSITY NEXT FEW HOURS ACROSS S CNTRL THROUGH SERN LA AND POSSIBLY INTO PARTS OF SRN MS. THREATS WILL INCLUDE ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND...LARGE HAIL AND POSSIBLY ISOLATED TORNADOES. AREA IS BEING MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE WW. THIS MORNING A SQUALL LINE EXTENDS ACROSS WRN LA MOVING EWD. A RETREATING FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE NRN GULF WNWWD THROUGH SERN AND INTO S CNTRL LA WHERE IT INTERSECT THE EWD ADVANCING SQUALL LINE. ANVIL CIRRUS IS LIMITING BOUNDARY LAYER HEATING...BUT A SLOW WARMING INTO THE LOWER 80S IS EXPECTED NEXT FEW HOURS. THIS ALONG WITH RICH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ALONG AND S OF RETREATING BOUNDARY WILL CONTRIBUTE TO MLCAPE FROM 1500 TO 2000 J/KG. FORCING FOR ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH EWD ADVANCING MCV AND WEAK CAP SHOULD CONTINUE TO PROMOTE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ALONG AND E OF SQUALL LINE AS WELL AS IN VICINITY OF NWD RETREATING FRONT. A MID LEVEL JET ACCOMPANYING THE MCV WILL PROVIDE DEEP LAYER SHEAR SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELLS. LOW LEVEL WIND FIELDS ARE NOT PARTICULARLY STRONG. HOWEVER...ESELY FLOW NEAR THE SURFACE VEERING TO SLY AT 20 TO 25 KT AROUND 1 KM MAY RESULT IN SUFFICIENT 0-1 KM HELICITY FOR LOW LEVEL MESOCYCLONE FORMATION AND A POTENTIAL THREAT FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES...ESPECIALLY WITH ANY STORMS INTERACTING WITH THE E-W BOUNDARY. OTHERWISE...LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND MAY ACCOMPANY SOME OF THE STRONGER STORMS. ..DIAL.. 05/06/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...JAN...LIX...LCH... 29218977 29849260 31049253 31109014 30248894 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Sat May 6 17:12:19 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Sat, 06 May 2006 13:12:19 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 061711 SWOMCD SPC MCD 061711 TXZ000-061915- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0775 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1211 PM CDT SAT MAY 06 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL THROUGH S CNTRL TX CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 061711Z - 061915Z THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS PARTS OF CNTRL THROUGH S CNTRL TX THIS AFTERNOON. SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREATS. A WW MIGHT BE NEED FOR THIS AREA BY MID AFTERNOON. AT MID-DAY A LARGE CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY EXTENDS FROM SRN TX NEAR CORPUS CHRISTI WNWWD TO S OF DEL RIO THEN NWD TO S OF SAN ANGELO AND EWD TO NEAR KILEEN. N OF THIS BOUNDARY A SYNOPTIC FRONT EXTENDS FROM ERN TX NEAR LUFKIN WWD TO NEAR SAN ANGELO THEN SWWD TO WEST OF SANDERSON. MUCH OF CNTRL TX HAS BEEN TEMPORARILY STABILIZED BY PREVIOUS CONVECTION. HOWEVER...SUBSTANTIAL CLEARING IS DEVELOPING OVER MUCH OF THIS AREA. CONTINUED WARMING OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD SUPPORT MODERATE INSTABILITY THIS AFTERNOON WITH MLCAPE AROUND 2000 J/KG. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS NOTED MOVING EWD THROUGH THE TX PANHANDLE AND WRN OK. THE LOW LEVEL FLOW AND 0-2 KM SHEAR ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN MODEST. HOWEVER...A MID LEVEL JET ON THE SRN PERIPHERY OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL CONTRIBUTE TO EFFECTIVE DEEP LAYER SHEAR AROUND 40-50 KT...SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELLS. THE POTENTIAL FOR SURFACE BASED STORMS WILL INCREASE NEXT FEW HOURS IN VICINITY OF THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ACROSS CNTRL TX AS THE ATMOSPHERE DESTABILIZES AND THE CAP WEAKENS. ..DIAL.. 05/06/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...FWD...EWX...SJT... 31589911 31169781 30239807 29509932 29730107 30970078 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Sat May 6 19:32:47 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Sat, 06 May 2006 15:32:47 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 061931 SWOMCD SPC MCD 061931 TXZ000-062130- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0776 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0231 PM CDT SAT MAY 06 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...DEEP SOUTH TX CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 061931Z - 062130Z ISOLATED SVR STORMS MAY DEVELOP ALONG AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ACROSS DEEP SOUTH TX IN THE NEXT FEW HRS. AREA WILL BE MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE WW. SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A WEAK MESOLOW SOUTH OF LRD WITH AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY EXTENDING EWD FROM THE LOW TO NEAR BKS AND MOVING SLOWLY SWD. AIRMASS SOUTH OF THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WAS VERY UNSTABLE WITH MLCAPES AROUND 3500 J/KG. RECENT OBSERVATIONS ALONG WITH SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT THERE STILL REMAINS SOME CIN ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR. HOWEVER A FEW MORE HRS OF HEATING AND CONVERGENCE ALONG THE OUTFLOW BNDRY MAY BE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT ISOLATED TSTM DEVELOPMENT. MODERATE MID LEVEL FLOW COMBINED WITH THE INSTABILITY WILL SUPPORT A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR SUPERCELL STORMS WITH LARGE HAIL/DMGG WINDS. VWP DATA FROM CRP AND BRO SHOWS A MODEST LOW LEVEL SHEAR WITH 0-1 KM SRH FROM 100-200 J/KG. THIS COMBINED WITH RELATIVELY LOW LCL HEIGHTS SUGGESTS THAT IF ANY DISCRETE STORMS DO DEVELOP THEY MIGHT BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING ISOLATED TORNADOES /ESPECIALLY IF THEY MOVE PARALLEL THE OUTFLOW BNDRY/. ..CROSBIE.. 05/06/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...CRP...BRO... 25899750 26379895 26689925 27259950 27569956 27759944 27519819 27319745 26899718 26039705 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Sat May 6 22:36:56 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Sat, 06 May 2006 18:36:56 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 062235 SWOMCD SPC MCD 062235 TXZ000-070000- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0777 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0535 PM CDT SAT MAY 06 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF CNTRL TX CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 301... VALID 062235Z - 070000Z IN WAKE OF CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW...ENOUGH HEATING OCCURRED NEAR/JUST AHEAD OF WEAK SURFACE FRONT TO CONTRIBUTE TO MODERATE INSTABILITY EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON...NORTH OF THE HILL COUNTRY INTO THE EDWARDS PLATEAU. THIS HAS SUPPORTED ISOLATED VIGOROUS THUNDERSTORMS ON SOUTHERN FRINGE OF 50+ KT CYCLONIC MID-LEVEL JET...WHICH IS PROVIDING SUFFICIENT DEEP LAYER SHEAR FOR UPDRAFT ROTATION. HOWEVER...MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE ACTUALLY STABILIZING IN SUBSIDENT REGIME TO THE SOUTH OF JET...AND THIS APPEARS TO BE INHIBITING OVERALL STRENGTH OF CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. STILL...SOME HAIL/GUSTY WINDS REMAIN POSSIBLE IN STORMS EAST OF JUNCTION...AND ADDITIONAL STORMS APPEAR POSSIBLE THROUGH 00-01Z IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO JUNCTION...NEAR DRY LINE/FRONTAL INTERSECTION. ..KERR.. 05/06/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...FWD...EWX...SJT... 30769949 31239823 31209780 30759761 30159789 29919847 29839913 30159976 30750008 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Sun May 7 01:24:52 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Sat, 06 May 2006 21:24:52 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 070124 SWOMCD SPC MCD 070123 TXZ000-070230- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0778 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0823 PM CDT SAT MAY 06 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF S CNTRL TX CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 301... VALID 070123Z - 070230Z REMAINING VALID PORTION OF WW MAY BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 02Z. NARROW LINGERING TONGUE OF HEATED MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER EAST OF DRY LINE...AND SOUTH OF SURFACE FRONT...TO THE WEST NORTHWEST OF SAN ANTONIO...MAY REMAIN SUPPORTIVE OF VIGOROUS CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ANOTHER HOUR OR TWO. HOWEVER... POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS APPEARS TO BE DECREASING WITH LOSS OF INSOLATION. GIVEN CONTINUING MID-LEVEL SUBSIDENCE IN WAKE OF SOUTHERN STREAM TROUGH...AND WEAK LOW-LEVEL FORCING...RISK FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT BEYOND THE 02-03Z TIME FRAME APPEARS LOW. ..KERR.. 05/07/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...EWX...SJT... 30030011 30189967 30329934 30409891 30099863 29489919 29569980 29700012 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Sun May 7 14:57:36 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Sun, 07 May 2006 10:57:36 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 071456 SWOMCD SPC MCD 071456 SCZ000-GAZ000-FLZ000-ALZ000-071700- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0779 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0956 AM CDT SUN MAY 07 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...SRN AL...THE WRN AND CNTRL FL PANHANDLE...SRN AND S CNTRL GA AND SWRN SC CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 071456Z - 071700Z THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSIFY ACROSS PARTS OF SRN AL...SRN AND S CNTRL GA...THE WRN AND CNTRL FL PANHANDLE INTO SWRN SC LATER THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND AND HAIL WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREATS. A WW MIGHT BE NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF THIS AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS. A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM CNTRL SC WWD THROUGH N CNTRL GA AND INTO CNTRL AL THEN SWWD TO SERN MS. A LINE OF PRE-FRONTAL THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDS FROM SERN MS THROUGH SRN AL INTO N CNTRL GA. MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE RATHER MODEST. HOWEVER...RICH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S IS ADVECTING NEWD THROUGH THE WARM SECTOR THAT WILL EXPERIENCE SURFACE HEATING THIS AFTERNOON. MODERATE INSTABILITY WITH MLCAPE AROUND 1500 J/KG IS EXPECTED. STORMS WILL LIKELY INTENSIFY INTO THE AFTERNOON AS THEY DEVELOP EWD INTO THE DESTABILIZING BOUNDARY LAYER. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH AXIS FROM THE TN VALLEY SWD INTO AL WILL CONTINUE EWD THROUGH THE SERN U.S. TODAY. LOW LEVEL SHEAR WILL BE LIMITED BY A RATHER MODEST LOW LEVEL JET AND UNIDIRECTIONAL NATURE OF THE VERTICAL WIND PROFILES. HOWEVER A 50 KT UPPER JET ACCOMPANYING THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL SUPPORT 0-6 KM SHEAR OF 35 TO 45 KT. MIXED MODE STORM TYPES ARE EXPECTED... INCLUDING MULTICELL LINE SEGMENTS/CLUSTERS WITH BOW ECHOES AS WELL AS SOME SUPERCELL STRUCTURES POSSIBLE. ..DIAL.. 05/07/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...CHS...CAE...JAX...FFC...TAE...BMX...MOB... 30848684 32028480 33028374 33058148 32278086 30818239 30358478 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Sun May 7 18:24:19 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Sun, 07 May 2006 14:24:19 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 071823 SWOMCD SPC MCD 071822 NEZ000-KSZ000-OKZ000-COZ000-NMZ000-071945- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0780 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0122 PM CDT SUN MAY 07 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN CO/SW NEB/NW KS CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 071822Z - 071945Z ...WEAK WIND FIELDS WILL LIMIT SEVERE POTENTIAL... FEW STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED INVOF OF LEE TROUGH ACROSS FAR ERN CO/NW KS...WHERE STEEP LAPSE RATES HAVE ALLOWED VIGOROUS MIXING TO OCCUR. THE AIRMASS CONTINUES TO DESTABILIZE...BUT LATEST OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS SUGGESTS ONLY WEAKLY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH MLCAPE AROUND 500-1000 J/KG. THE REAL LIMITING FACTOR ATTM IS THE WEAK WINDS ALOFT /PER MCCOOK NEB PROFILER DATA/ WHICH WILL FAVOR MULTICELL STORMS GIVEN 20-25 KT DEEP LAYER SHEAR. STORMS SHOULD BECOME MORE NUMEROUS LATER THIS AFTN WITH A MARGINAL WIND/HAIL THREAT DEVELOPING...AS SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW OVER ERN CO MOVES EAST INTO THE HIGH PLAINS. ..TAYLOR.. 05/07/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LBF...DDC...GLD...AMA...PUB...BOU...ABQ... 38830055 36990148 36980305 38500377 39500356 40170298 40960191 40500037 39490036 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Sun May 7 18:31:15 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Sun, 07 May 2006 14:31:15 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 071830 SWOMCD SPC MCD 071830 TXZ000-072000- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0781 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0130 PM CDT SUN MAY 07 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...SW TX CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 071830Z - 072000Z ISOLATED SEVERE STORM DEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE 19-22Z...AND A WW MAY BE NEEDED IN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS CUMULUS DEVELOPING OVER THE DAVIS MOUNTAINS IN SW TX...AND NEAR SANDERSON. INSOLATION THROUGH BREAKS IN THE CIRRUS HAS ALLOWED SURFACE TEMPERATURES TO WARM TO NEAR 80 F...WHILE DEWPOINTS RANGE FROM 59-66 F. THOUGH LAPSE RATES ARE NOT PARTICULARLY STEEP IN THE MID LEVELS...PROFILES ARE SUPPORTIVE OF MLCAPE VALUES OF 1500-2000 J/KG THIS AFTERNOON. VERTICAL SHEAR IS ALSO FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELL STORMS...WHICH WOULD TEND TO ENHANCE THE THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL. THIS AREA WILL BE MONITORED CLOSELY FOR ADDITIONAL SIGNS OF CONVECTIVE INITIATION...AND A WW MAY BECOME NECESSARY BY 19-20Z. ..THOMPSON.. 05/07/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...EWX...SJT...MAF... 29750263 30830374 31480334 31560250 31290203 30900143 30200075 29670037 29170039 29030061 29600130 29740203 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Sun May 7 19:12:46 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Sun, 07 May 2006 15:12:46 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 071911 SWOMCD SPC MCD 071911 GAZ000-FLZ000-072115- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0782 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0211 PM CDT SUN MAY 07 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...WRN AND CNTRL FL PANHANDLE THROUGH SWRN AND S CNTRL GA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 302... VALID 071911Z - 072115Z STRONGEST STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST ON SRN END OF THE MCS FROM THE WRN AND CNTRL FL PANHANDLE INTO SRN GA NEXT FEW HOURS. LINE OF STORMS EXTENDS FROM S CNTRL GA SWWD THROUGH SWRN GA AND THEN WWD INTO THE WRN AND CNTRL FL PANHANDLE. ACTIVITY IS MOVING EAST AT AROUND 25 KT. A FEW STORMS WITH SOME SUPERCELL CHARACTERISTICS HAVE ALSO DEVELOPED AHEAD OF THE LINE ALONG THE GA/FL BORDER IN THOMAS COUNTY OF EXTREME SRN GA AND JEFFERSON COUNTY IN THE FL PANHANDLE. STORMS ON THE SRN END OF THE MCS ARE IN A FAVORABLE POSITION TO INGEST FEED OF HIGHER THETA-E AIR LOCATED ACROSS THE FL PANHANDLE AND EXTREME SRN GA. VWP DATA SHOWS THE STORMS ARE EMBEDDED WITHIN LARGELY UNIDIRECTIONAL WLY 0-6 KM SHEAR OF 40-50 KT. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE PRIMARY THREATS. STORMS ON TRAILING END OF MCS ARE ORIENTED PARALLEL TO THE DEEP LAYER WIND PROFILES. IN ADDITION TO POSING A THREAT FOR LOCALLY STRONG WIND GUSTS AND HAIL...THESE STORMS WILL ALSO LIKELY PRODUCE RAINFALL RATES IN EXCESS OF 1 INCH PER HOUR AS THEY TRAIN EWD. ..DIAL.. 05/07/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...TAE... 30248346 30018499 30418603 30608599 30728562 30878442 31108324 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Sun May 7 19:56:49 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Sun, 07 May 2006 15:56:49 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 071955 SWOMCD SPC MCD 071955 SCZ000-GAZ000-072200- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0783 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0255 PM CDT SUN MAY 07 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN SC THROUGH SERN GA CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 303... VALID 071955Z - 072200Z SEVERE WEATHER THREAT IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST ANOTHER FEW HOURS. AN ISOLATED TORNADO OR TWO REMAINS POSSIBLE...MAINLY ACROSS ERN SC...BUT PRIMARY THREAT APPEARS TO HAVE TRANSITIONED TO DAMAGING WIND AND LARGE HAIL. THIS AFTERNOON A FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDS ACROSS THE SRN PARTS OF SC WWD INTO N CNTRL GA. SCATTERED STORMS PERSIST ACROSS ERN SC WITHIN MODERATELY UNSTABLE WARM SECTOR NEAR AND S OF THE FRONT. NUMEROUS STORM MERGERS HAVE RESULTED IN STORMS EVOLVING INTO MOSTLY MULTICELL MODES...AND THIS APPEARS TO HAVE MITIGATED THE TORNADO THREAT. MOREOVER...OUTFLOW FROM THE STORMS HAVE STABILIZED THE BOUNDARY LAYER NEAR THE FRONT. HOWEVER...SHEAR PROFILES IN THE 0-6 KM LAYER REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR SOME STORMS TO TAKE ON SUPERCELL STRUCTURES...AND A BRIEF TORNADO OR TWO REMAIN POSSIBLE OVER ERN SC. OTHERWISE...THE PRIMARY THREAT SHOULD BE DAMAGING WIND AND HAIL INTO THE EARLY EVENING. ..DIAL.. 05/07/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...CHS...CAE... 32757923 31818066 31618172 32688189 33437997 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Sun May 7 22:17:55 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Sun, 07 May 2006 18:17:55 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 072216 SWOMCD SPC MCD 072216 NEZ000-KSZ000-COZ000-072345- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0784 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0516 PM CDT SUN MAY 07 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...WRN KS CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 072216Z - 072345Z ...PORTIONS OF KS CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED FOR POSSIBLE WATCH TONIGHT... SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS NOW OVER WRN KS PER LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. THIS FEATURE HAS HELPED TRIGGER SEVERE STORMS OVER KS...AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR VALUES HAVE INCREASED TO AROUND 30-35 KT. THE INSTABILITY AXIS IS FAIRLY NARROW...AS STRATUS DECK ACROSS CNTRL/ERN KS MOST OF THE DAY HAS INHIBITED STRONG INSOLATION. THIS SUGGESTS SEVERE THREAT MAY BE LARGELY DIURNAL. SEVERE THREAT MAY CONTINUE WITH STORM OVER LOGAN CO AND POSSIBLY A FEW COUNTIES EAST FOR THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS. OPERATIONAL MODELS SUGGEST LARGE SCALE FORCING WILL MOVE EWD ACROSS THE CNTRL PLAINS...WITH MCS LIKELY EVOLVING ACROSS PORTIONS OF KS/OK. IT APPEARS THE SEVERE THREAT MAY BE LIMITED WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING...UNLESS ELEVATED SUPERCELLS CAN DEVELOP WITH LARGE HAIL POTENTIAL OR IF STRONG COLD POOL DEVELOPS. AREA WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED FOR POTENTIAL WATCH. ..TAYLOR.. 05/07/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...GID...DDC...GLD...PUB... 37689975 37050022 37040207 38550179 39610151 39980082 40009912 38489954 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Sun May 7 23:08:03 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Sun, 07 May 2006 19:08:03 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 072305 SWOMCD SPC MCD 072305 SCZ000-GAZ000-080000- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0785 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0605 PM CDT SUN MAY 07 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL GA THROUGH NORTHEAST FLORIDA AND COASTAL SOUTH CAROLINA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 072305Z - 080000Z REMAINING VALID PORTION OF TORNADO WATCH 303 MAY BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AS SCHEDULED AT 00Z. SEVERE THREAT MAY INCREASE FOR A BRIEF PERIOD EARLY THIS EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL GEORGIA...BUT A NEW WW IS NOT CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED. IN WAKE OF PRIOR CONVECTION...A NARROW CORRIDOR OF MORE STRONGLY HEATED BOUNDARY LAYER PERSISTS NEAR FRONTAL ZONE ACROSS CENTRAL GEORGIA...ACROSS THE MACON AREA AND GENERALLY SOUTH OF ATLANTA/ AUGUSTA. THIS IS STILL CONTRIBUTING TO MIXED LAYER CAPE AS HIGH AS 1000 J/KG...AND FORCING NEAR 50 TO 60 KT 500 MB JET STREAK ASSOCIATED WITH SOUTHERN STREAM IMPULSE IS SUPPORTING INCREASING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF ATLANTA. EVOLUTION OF A SMALL ORGANIZED MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM APPEARS POSSIBLE AS ACTIVITY APPROACHES THE MACON AREA THROUGH 00-01Z. THIS COULD BE ACCOMPANIED BY SMALL DEVELOPING SURFACE MESO HIGH/COLD POOL AND ASSOCIATED POTENTIAL FOR STRONG GUSTY WINDS...IN ADDITION TO RISK FOR MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL. HOWEVER...EAST SOUTHEAST OF MACON... LIMITED SEVERE POTENTIAL IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH BY 02-03Z AS BOUNDARY LAYER STABILIZES MORE RAPIDLY WITH LOSS OF INSOLATION. ..KERR.. 05/07/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...CHS...CAE...JAX...FFC...TAE... 33298436 33408373 33128042 32568010 31578101 31118153 31138261 32098346 32318380 32768470 33208464 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Mon May 8 00:55:16 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Sun, 07 May 2006 20:55:16 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 080054 SWOMCD SPC MCD 080053 TXZ000-NMZ000-080230- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0786 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0753 PM CDT SUN MAY 07 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...SW TX CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 305... VALID 080053Z - 080230Z ...SEVERE THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS SW TX INTO THE TRANSPECOS REGION FOR VERY LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS AND POSSIBLY A TORNADO OR TWO... SEVERAL SUPERCELL STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS...WITH AT LEAST A COUPLE STORMS WHICH WILL AFFECT MIDLAND AND POINTS FARTHER EAST WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO. MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW CONTINUES TO INCREASE AS SRN STREAM IMPULSE APPROACHES. DEEP LAYER SHEAR EXCEEDS 60 KT ON 00Z MIDLAND SOUNDING...WITH SIGNIFICANT LOW LEVEL VEERING/DIRECTIONAL SHEAR NOTED. IN ADDITION TO THE THREAT OF VERY LARGE HAIL...ISOLD TORNADO POTENTIAL ALSO EXISTS. ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO EVENTUALLY BECOME ROOTED ABOVE THE BOUNDARY LAYER...AS THE LOW LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS TO AROUND 40 KT. LOW LEVEL ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW LEVEL JET CIRCULATION MAY SUPPORT A SEVERE THREAT FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...WITH THE PRIMARY THREAT TRANSITIONING TO LARGE HAIL AS STORMS BECOME ELEVATED. ..TAYLOR.. 05/08/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...EWX...SJT...LUB...MAF... 29550039 29510219 31450277 32920323 33030124 32850045 29609962 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Mon May 8 02:18:41 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Sun, 07 May 2006 22:18:41 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 080215 SWOMCD SPC MCD 080215 OKZ000-KSZ000-TXZ000-080315- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0787 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0915 PM CDT SUN MAY 07 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...SW KS...NW OK...TX PNHDL CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 306... VALID 080215Z - 080315Z CONTINUE WW 306. AS STRONGER MID-LEVEL FORCING AHEAD OF SHORT WAVE TROUGH PROGRESSES EAST OF WESTERN KANSAS HIGH PLAINS LOW-LEVEL THERMAL RIDGE/INSTABILITY AXIS NEXT FEW HOURS...CONVECTIVE LINE OVER KANSAS IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN IN COOLER LOW-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT. GIVEN POSITIVE TILT ORIENTATION OF UPPER TROUGH...THIS FORCING WILL BE SLOWER TO PROGRESS EAST OF THE TEXAS PANHANDLE REGION...WHERE DESTABILIZATION/LIFT NEAR 40 KT LOW-LEVEL JET SPEED MAXIMUM MAY CONTRIBUTE TO EXPANDING CLUSTER OF STORMS THROUGH 06Z. MOST UNSTABLE CAPE UP TO AROUND 1500 J/KG FOR PARCELS REACHING LEVELS OF FREE CONVECTION ABOVE DEEPENING SURFACE INVERSION LAYER WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR CONTINUING RISK OF LARGE HAIL IN FAVORABLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. AND...DESPITE COOLING SURFACE ACROSS THE EASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE...SOURCE REGION FOR DOWNDRAFTS APPEARS POTENTIALLY COOL/DRY ENOUGH TO SUPPORT THREAT FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. ..KERR.. 05/08/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...OUN...DDC...LUB...AMA... 37110151 37460035 37719971 37609901 36539835 36039878 35719937 35039965 34470059 34620188 34830256 35410261 36400178  From mcd at goshenarc.org Mon May 8 04:22:20 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Mon, 08 May 2006 00:22:20 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 080421 SWOMCD SPC MCD 080420 TXZ000-080515- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0788 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1120 PM CDT SUN MAY 07 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...S CNTRL TX CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 305... VALID 080420Z - 080515Z REMAINING VALID PORTION OF WW MAY BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 05Z. A NEW WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED. FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF A BROADLY ANTICYCLONIC HIGH LEVEL JET APPEARS TO HAVE CONTRIBUTED TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF ONGOING LINEAR MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM ACROSS THE EDWARDS PLATEAU. THIS FORCING APPEARS TO BE GRADUALLY SHIFTING TO THE EAST OF HIGH PLAINS LOW-LEVEL THERMAL RIDGE AND SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL JET AXIS. WITH DEMISE OF SUPERCELL ON SOUTHWESTERN FLANK OF SYSTEM...STORMS NOW APPEAR ROOTED ENTIRELY ABOVE DEEPENING SURFACE BASED INVERSION LAYER. WITH WARMER MID-LEVEL AIR MASS BEGINNING TO ADVECT EAST OF THE PLATEAU REGION...COOLER/COOLING LOW-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT SEEMS UNLIKELY TO MAINTAIN INTENSE CONVECTION ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS. ISOLATED LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WIND GUSTS MAY PERSIST ANOTHER HOUR OR TWO WITH ONGOING STORMS...BUT SEVERE THREAT IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH AS ACTIVITY APPROACHES THE INTERSTATE 35 CORRIDOR BY THE 06-07Z TIME FRAME. ..KERR.. 05/08/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...HGX...FWD...EWX...SJT... 31589853 32169774 32249677 31849637 30779651 29889837 29779934 30400021 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Mon May 8 04:53:07 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Mon, 08 May 2006 00:53:07 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 080452 SWOMCD SPC MCD 080451 KSZ000-OKZ000-TXZ000-080545- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0789 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1151 PM CDT SUN MAY 07 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...SW/S CNTRL KS...ERN TX PNHDL...WRN/CNTRL OK CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 306... VALID 080451Z - 080545Z REMAINING VALID PORTION OF WW 306 MAY BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 06Z. STRONGER MID/UPPER FORCING FOR UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT AWAY FROM HIGH PLAINS LOW-LEVEL THERMAL RIDGE OVERNIGHT. AND...AS LOW-LEVEL LEVELS CONTINUE TO COOL EVEN OVER THE HIGH PLAINS...SEVERE THREAT IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH AS THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WEAKENS. ISOLATED MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS MAY CONTINUE TO ACCOMPANY STRONGER STORMS FOR ANOTHER COUPLE OF HOURS...BUT A NEW WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED. ..KERR.. 05/08/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...TSA...ICT...OUN...DDC...LUB...AMA... 35370105 35939992 36439923 37699891 38079849 38019703 36979636 35309728 34469849 34430085 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Mon May 8 15:14:10 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Mon, 08 May 2006 11:14:10 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 081512 SWOMCD SPC MCD 081512 TXZ000-OKZ000-081715- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0790 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1012 AM CDT MON MAY 08 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...SRN OK/NRN TX CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 081512Z - 081715Z A MARGINAL SEVERE THREAT SHOULD EXIST OVER THE NEXT 1 TO 2 HOURS ACROSS SRN OK AND NRN TX. ISOLATED LARGE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE AS STORMS EXPAND IN COVERAGE LATE THIS MORNING. LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A SUBTLE MOIST AXIS FROM NEAR FORTH WORTH TX EXTENDING NWD ACROSS ECNTRL OK INTO SE KS WITH SFC DEWPOINTS ALONG THE AXIS RANGING FROM 55 TO 60 F. THE GREATEST INSTABILITY IS LOCATED ALONG THE WEST EDGE OF THIS MOIST AXIS WHERE ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE DEVELOPING IN SRN OK. THE STORMS ARE FEEDING OFF OF INSTABILITY GENERALLY ABOVE 850 MB AND SHOULD GRADUALLY INCREASE IN COVERAGE AS A SHORTWAVE APPROACHES THE REGION FROM THE WEST. REGIONAL PROFILERS AT 15Z SHOW 0-6 KM SHEAR VALUES AROUND 40 KT. IN ADDITION...OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS SHOWS A POCKET OF STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES LOCATED FROM I-35 EXTENDING EWD TO NEAR THE OK-AR STATE-LINE. THE SHEAR AND STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR A FEW SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING ISOLATED LARGE HAIL. THE THREAT SHOULD PERSIST INTO THE AFTERNOON AS STORMS MOVE EWD ACROSS SE OK AND NE TX. ..BROYLES.. 05/08/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...SHV...TSA...FWD...OUN... 34519823 35079769 35069651 34569566 33979528 33579529 33249559 32859609 32799649 33039759 33879835 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Mon May 8 15:45:06 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Mon, 08 May 2006 11:45:06 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 081544 SWOMCD SPC MCD 081543 FLZ000-GAZ000-ALZ000-081745- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0791 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1043 AM CDT MON MAY 08 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...NRN FL...SRN GA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 081543Z - 081745Z THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT SHOULD CONTINUE ACROSS SRN GA AND NRN FL OVER THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS. AS STORMS INTENSIFY...THE THREAT FOR ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE AND HAIL WILL INCREASE. LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDING EAST TO WEST ACROSS SRN GA WITH SFC DEWPOINTS NEAR 70 F SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY. WARMING SFC TEMPS COMBINED WITH THE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IS RESULTING IN MODERATE INSTABILITY ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE FRONT. EVEN IN THE ABSENCE OF STRONG LARGE-SCALE ASCENT...INCREASING LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG THE BOUNDARY AND CONTINUED SFC HEATING SHOULD RESULT IN AN INCREASE IN THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH LAPSE RATES ARE NOT PARTICULARLY STEEP...FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST SHEAR PROFILES IN SRN GA AND NRN FL ARE ADEQUATE FOR SEVERE STORMS. AS LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND INSTABILITY CONTINUE TO INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON...WIND DAMAGE AND HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER CELLS. ..BROYLES.. 05/08/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...JAX...TAE... 29938246 29858495 30138530 30748533 31228500 31308298 31238149 30228139 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Mon May 8 17:02:47 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Mon, 08 May 2006 13:02:47 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 081701 SWOMCD SPC MCD 081701 FLZ000-ALZ000-MSZ000-LAZ000-TXZ000-081900- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0792 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1201 PM CDT MON MAY 08 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...FAR SE TX...SRN LA...SRN MS...SRN AL AND WRN FL PANHANDLE CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 081701Z - 081900Z THUNDERSTORM INITIATION WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY LIKELY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE IMMEDIATE GULF COAST. ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE AND LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREATS AS STORMS INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND MOVE EWD ACROSS THE REGION. A WW MAY BECOME NECESSARY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDING EWD FROM EAST TX ACROSS SCNTRL LA...SRN MS AND SRN AL. ALTHOUGH LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE IS INCREASING SOMEWHAT ALONG THE BOUNDARY...A CAPPING INVERSION STILL REMAINS IN PLACE EVIDENT ON OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS. THIS INVERSION SHOULD GRADUALLY WEAKEN AS INSTABILITY INCREASES EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. AS A RESULT...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOP ALONG THE BOUNDARY WITH STORMS LIKELY INITIATING BY 19Z AS SUGGESTED BY THE LATEST RUC. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ACROSS THE REGION SHOW MODERATE TO STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES SUGGESTING SUPERCELLS WILL BE LIKELY WITH STORMS THAT REMAIN DISCRETE. ALTHOUGH A MARGINAL/ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER SUPERCELLS...THE MAIN THREAT SHOULD BE LARGE HAIL AND WIND DAMAGE DUE TO THE RELATIVELY WEAK LOW-LEVEL SHEAR IN PLACE. ..BROYLES.. 05/08/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...TAE...MOB...JAN...LIX...LCH...SHV...HGX... 31088558 30298559 29788628 29798868 29859147 29679316 29579417 30019461 30599463 31199379 31459183 31478823 31398630 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Mon May 8 20:42:16 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Mon, 08 May 2006 16:42:16 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 082040 SWOMCD SPC MCD 082040 KSZ000-OKZ000-NEZ000-082245- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0793 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0340 PM CDT MON MAY 08 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...KS...FAR SRN NEB...NW OK CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 082040Z - 082245Z SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY LIKELY LATE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS WRN AND CNTRL KS. A THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL AND WIND DAMAGE WILL ACCOMPANY THE STRONGER STORMS. AN ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT MAY ALSO DEVELOP AS STORMS MATURE BY EARLY EVENING. A WW MAY BECOME NECESSARY WITHIN THE NEXT 1 TO 2 HOURS. SFC ANALYSIS CURRENTLY SHOWS A MOIST AXIS EXTENDING NWD FROM NRN OK ACROSS CNTRL KS WHERE DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S F. THIS IS RESULTING IN MODERATE TO STRONG INSTABILITY ALONG THE MOIST AXIS WHERE MLCAPE VALUES RANGE FROM 2000 TO 3000 J/KG. A CAPPING INVERSION IS CURRENTLY IN PLACE BUT FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THE CAP WILL WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS. AS A RESULT...SFC-BASED CONVECTIVE INITIATION APPEARS INCREASINGLY LIKELY ALONG AN EAST TO WEST BOUNDARY JUST NORTH OF I-70 IN NCNTRL KS EVIDENT ON VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY. REGIONAL PROFILERS SHOW MODERATE VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES IN PLACE WHICH COMBINED WITH STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES SHOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL. AN ISOLATED TORNADO/WIND DAMAGE THREAT MAY ALSO ACCOMPANY THE STRONGER SUPERCELLS ESPECIALLY AS LOW-LEVEL FLOW INCREASES EARLY THIS EVENING. ..BROYLES.. 05/08/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...ICT...OUN...GID...DDC...GLD...AMA... 36970043 37340071 37960097 38830096 39700045 40109984 40199914 39469798 38089785 36859864 36679985 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Mon May 8 20:42:16 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Mon, 08 May 2006 16:42:16 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 082040 SWOMCD SPC MCD 082040 KSZ000-OKZ000-NEZ000-082245- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0793 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0340 PM CDT MON MAY 08 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...KS...FAR SRN NEB...NW OK CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 082040Z - 082245Z SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY LIKELY LATE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS WRN AND CNTRL KS. A THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL AND WIND DAMAGE WILL ACCOMPANY THE STRONGER STORMS. AN ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT MAY ALSO DEVELOP AS STORMS MATURE BY EARLY EVENING. A WW MAY BECOME NECESSARY WITHIN THE NEXT 1 TO 2 HOURS. SFC ANALYSIS CURRENTLY SHOWS A MOIST AXIS EXTENDING NWD FROM NRN OK ACROSS CNTRL KS WHERE DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S F. THIS IS RESULTING IN MODERATE TO STRONG INSTABILITY ALONG THE MOIST AXIS WHERE MLCAPE VALUES RANGE FROM 2000 TO 3000 J/KG. A CAPPING INVERSION IS CURRENTLY IN PLACE BUT FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THE CAP WILL WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS. AS A RESULT...SFC-BASED CONVECTIVE INITIATION APPEARS INCREASINGLY LIKELY ALONG AN EAST TO WEST BOUNDARY JUST NORTH OF I-70 IN NCNTRL KS EVIDENT ON VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY. REGIONAL PROFILERS SHOW MODERATE VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES IN PLACE WHICH COMBINED WITH STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES SHOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL. AN ISOLATED TORNADO/WIND DAMAGE THREAT MAY ALSO ACCOMPANY THE STRONGER SUPERCELLS ESPECIALLY AS LOW-LEVEL FLOW INCREASES EARLY THIS EVENING. ..BROYLES.. 05/08/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...ICT...OUN...GID...DDC...GLD...AMA... 36970043 37340071 37960097 38830096 39700045 40109984 40199914 39469798 38089785 36859864 36679985 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Mon May 8 21:43:52 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Mon, 08 May 2006 17:43:52 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 082142 SWOMCD SPC MCD 082142 MSZ000-LAZ000-ARZ000-082315- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0794 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0442 PM CDT MON MAY 08 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...SRN AR/NRN LA/WRN MS CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 082142Z - 082315Z ...SEVERE POTENTIAL MAY BE INCREASING ACROSS SRN AR/NRN LA AND WATCH MAY BE REQUIRED SHORTLY... LATEST SFC MESOANALYSIS SHOWS OUTFLOW BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM S/SE OF ELD WWD TO TYR. AIRMASS SOUTH OF THIS BOUNDARY HAS WARMED INTO THE 80S...BECOMING MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH MLCAPE AROUND 2000-2500 J/KG. DEEP LAYER AND DIRECTIONAL SHEAR ARE EXTREMELY FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS. RECENT DATA FROM WINNFIELD LA PROFILER SHOWS ELONGATED HODOGRAPH...WITH 0-6KM SHEAR AROUND 60 KT. IN ADDITION...SHORTWAVE/MCV TYPE FEATURE NOW MOVING INTO SW AR WILL LIKELY ENHANCE CONVECTION. AS STORMS NOW ALONG AR/LA BORDER...WHICH HAVE BEEN ELEVATED...BECOME ROOTED IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER...THEN SEVERE POTENTIAL IS HIGH. ..TAYLOR.. 05/08/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...JAN...LIX...LZK...LCH...SHV... 30979127 31289337 32769362 33299360 33519322 33679240 33599127 33158940 32048951 31198973 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Mon May 8 22:12:04 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Mon, 08 May 2006 18:12:04 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 082210 SWOMCD SPC MCD 082210 TXZ000-082315- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0795 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0510 PM CDT MON MAY 08 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF S TX CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 082210Z - 082315Z TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF AN INCREASING SEVERE THREAT. INTENSE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT WHICH INITIATED A COUPLE OF HOURS AGO ALONG THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE MEXICAN PLATEAU CONTINUES TO GRADUALLY DEVELOP TOWARD THE RIO GRANDE RIVER...SOUTH SOUTHEAST OF DEL RIO. THIS HAS BEEN AIDED BY 30 TO 50 KT WESTERLY MID-LEVEL FLOW...WHICH IS PROVIDING FAVORABLE DEEP LAYER SHEAR FOR UPDRAFT ROTATION IN ENVIRONMENT WITH LARGE CAPE. MID/UPPER FORCING FOR CONTINUING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IS UNCERTAIN IN BROADLY ANTICYCLONIC UPPER FLOW REGIME...AND SEEMS TO BE NECESSARY FOR SIGNIFICANT CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL EAST OF THE RIVER...INTO AREAS SOUTHWEST OF SAN ANTONIO BY EARLY EVENING. IF HEATING/UPSLOPE HAS BEEN PRIMARY FORCING FOR ONGOING DEVELOPMENT...TENDENCY MAY BE FOR SUPERCELLS TO PROPAGATE SOUTHWARD THROUGH INSTABILITY AXIS NEAR/JUST WEST OF THE RIVER. CELLS COULD APPROACH OR CROSS RIVER...BUT MAY NOT POSE ANYTHING OTHER THAN VERY LOCALIZED SEVERE THREAT. ..KERR.. 05/08/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...CRP...EWX...BRO... 29510117 29610076 29540012 29399931 29339902 29119871 28629844 27949813 27569812 27259804 26549822 26229851 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Mon May 8 22:40:03 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Mon, 08 May 2006 18:40:03 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 082238 SWOMCD SPC MCD 082238 IAZ000-MOZ000-KSZ000-NEZ000-082345- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0796 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0538 PM CDT MON MAY 08 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...WRN /CNTRL KS...SE NEB...NW MO... CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 307... VALID 082238Z - 082345Z TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED FOR EXPANDING SEVERE THREAT. ADDITIONAL WW PROBABLY WILL BE NEEDED EAST NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH PARTS OF THE MID MISSOURI VALLEY BY 00Z. STRONG CYCLONIC UPPER JET CONTINUES TO NOSE ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST THROUGH THE NORTH CENTRAL ROCKIES/CENTRAL PLAINS. INITIAL IMPULSE APPEARS TO HAVE PROGRESSED THROUGH THE MID MISSOURI VALLEY...BUT EXIT REGION OF STRONGER UPSTREAM SPEED MAXIMUM IS SHIFTING EAST OF THE CENTRAL ROCKIES...AND SUPPORTING ONGOING VIGOROUS CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IN THE VICINITY OF COLD FRONT/DRY LINE INTERSECTION NEAR HILL CITY. AS THIS FORCING CONTINUES TO SPREAD EASTWARD THROUGH EARLY EVENING....PRE-FRONTAL INSTABILITY AXIS EXTENDING THROUGH AREAS SOUTH AND EAST OF OMAHA SHOULD SUPPORT INCREASING/INTENSIFYING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. LOW/MID-LEVEL FLOW IS MODERATE...BUT SHOULD BE SUFFICIENTLY SHEARED FOR EXPANDING STRONG/SEVERE MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM IN ENVIRONMENT WITH MIXED LAYER CAPE OF 1000 TO 2000 J/KG. LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WIND GUSTS APPEAR PRIMARY THREATS...BUT CONDITIONS THROUGH AT LEAST 01-02Z WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR ISOLATED/EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS WITH POTENTIAL FOR TORNADOES. ..KERR.. 05/08/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...DMX...EAX...FSD...OAX...TOP...ICT...GID...DDC...GLD... 39340016 39599948 39829844 40619708 41659607 42379527 41789417 40889402 39489552 38729702 38049797 37969890 38100033 38470101 38990107 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Tue May 9 00:05:59 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Mon, 08 May 2006 20:05:59 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 090004 SWOMCD SPC MCD 090004 NEZ000-090100- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0797 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0704 PM CDT MON MAY 08 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...WRN NEB CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 090004Z - 090100Z SMALL CONVECTIVE CLUSTER APPEARS SIGNIFICANTLY FORCED BY MID-LEVEL CYCLONIC VORTICITY CENTER EMBEDDED WITHIN BELT OF MODERATE TO STRONG CYCLONIC MID/UPPER FLOW. CAPE IS WEAK IN POST FRONTAL ENVIRONMENT ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...BUT STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE ENHANCING DOWNDRAFTS AND POTENTIAL FOR STRONG GUSTY SURFACE WINDS NEAR STORMS AS THEY PROGRESS TOWARD ALLIANCE. WEAK BUT EASTERLY UPSLOPE COMPONENT TO LOW-LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE IS ALSO ENHANCING VERTICAL SHEAR/SYSTEM RELATIVE WIND CONFIGURATION BENEATH 45 TO 50 KT WESTERLY MID-LEVEL FLOW. SHEAR/ THERMODYNAMIC REGIME BECOMES MORE UNFAVORABLE EAST OF THE ALLIANCE AREA...AND STABILIZATION ASSOCIATED WITH ONSET OF SURFACE COOLING SHOULD PROMOTE FURTHER WEAKENING OF STORMS BY 01-02Z. ..KERR.. 05/09/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LBF...CYS... 41890334 42480289 42280223 41810230 41460282 41410333 41510365 41640381 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Tue May 9 00:43:57 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Mon, 08 May 2006 20:43:57 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 090042 SWOMCD SPC MCD 090042 GAZ000-FLZ000-ALZ000-MSZ000-LAZ000-TXZ000-090215- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0798 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0742 PM CDT MON MAY 08 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...NRN LA/MS/SW AL CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 308... VALID 090042Z - 090215Z ...LOCALIZED TORNADO THREAT MAY BE INCREASING WITH SUPERCELLS ENTERING WRN MS. WATCH WILL BE LOCALLY EXTENDED AND NEW WATCH WILL BE ISSUED EWD INTO AL/WRN FL PANHANDLE... NUMEROUS SUPERCELLS HAVE DEVELOPED INVOF OF WARM FRONT THIS EVENING. AIRMASS SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY REMAINS MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH SFC DEWPOINTS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 60S CNTRL MS TO 70S NEAR THE GULF COAST...WHERE MLCAPE VALUES EXCEED 2500 J/KG. LOW LEVEL SHEAR IS NOT TERRIBLY STRONG /ON THE ORDER OF 10-15 KT/ AND THAT MAY LIMIT TORNADO THREAT. HOWEVER...VERY STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND MODERATE INSTABILITY WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT SUPERCELLS. THERE IS A POTENTIAL TORNADO THREAT WITH ANY LONG LIVED SUPERCELL. OTHERWISE...VERY LARGE HAIL/ISOLD DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS. WATCH WILL LIKELY BE LOCALLY EXTENDED DOWNSTREAM. ..TAYLOR.. 05/09/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...FFC...TAE...BMX...MOB...JAN...LIX...LCH...SHV... 30278549 30379370 32989400 32108495 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Tue May 9 00:48:59 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Mon, 08 May 2006 20:48:59 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 090047 SWOMCD SPC MCD 090047 IAZ000-MOZ000-KSZ000-NEZ000-090145- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0799 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0747 PM CDT MON MAY 08 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...N CNTRL/NE KS THRU SE NEB/NW MO AND WRN IA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 090047Z - 090145Z CONTINUE WEATHER WATCHES 307 AND 309. MOST SIGNIFICANT PORTION OF EVOLVING MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM IS PROGRESSING THROUGH INSTABILITY AXIS ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS... WHERE MIXED LAYER CAPE UP TO 2000 J/KG IS SUPPORTING VIGOROUS UPDRAFTS. RELATIVELY STEEP LOW/MID LEVEL LAPSE AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITIES ARE CONTRIBUTING TO FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS...WHICH MAY SPREAD ALONG LEADING EDGE OF OUTFLOWS INTO AREAS WEST/NORTH OF MANHATTAN BEFORE ENCOUNTERING COOLER/MORE UNFAVORABLE BOUNDARY LAYER. MOST SIGNIFICANT NEW CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT THROUGH 02-03Z SEEMS LIKELY TO OCCUR NEAR/EAST OF THE MISSOURI RIVER...ACROSS FAR NORTHWEST MISSOURI INTO WESTERN IOWA. THIS WILL BE SUPPORTED BY FORCING NEAR WEAK SURFACE LOW...AND ENHANCED BY BETTER SHEAR PROFILES NEAR SOUTHWESTERLY LOW-LEVEL JET...WHICH MAY STRENGTHEN SOME THIS EVENING AS A 40 TO 45 KT MID-LEVEL JET CORE PROGRESSES ACROSS NEBRASKA. SOUTH OF BELT OF STRONGER FLOW ALOFT... CONVERGENCE ALONG WEAKENING OUTFLOW MAY BECOME TOO WEAK TO SUPPORT FURTHER STRONG CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT INTO WEST CENTRAL MISSOURI/NORTHEAST KANSAS. BUT...THIS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED. ..KERR.. 05/09/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...DMX...EAX...FSD...OAX...TOP...ICT...GID...DDC... 39819838 40299772 40629730 41209706 41709666 42549610 42799526 42449435 41539370 40749426 40109506 39689565 38989735 38859816 37989950 37560067 38320054 39079935 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Tue May 9 08:38:37 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Tue, 09 May 2006 04:38:37 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 090837 SWOMCD SPC MCD 090837 FLZ000-091030- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0803 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0337 AM CDT TUE MAY 09 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...WCNTRL FL PENINSULA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 090837Z - 091030Z ...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE APPROACHING THE WEST CENTRAL COAST OF THE FL PENINSULA... WELL ORGANIZED MCS CONTINUES ITS SEWD MOVEMENT ACROSS THE NERN GULF OF MEXICO THIS MORNING. THIS ACTIVITY IS PROGRESSING SEWD AT ROUGHLY 35KT WITH LEADING EDGE OF STRONGER UPDRAFTS EXPECTED TO MOVE ONSHORE AROUND 10Z. ALTHOUGH LOW LEVEL FLOW/SHEAR IS SOMEWHAT WEAK...IT APPEARS DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL REMAIN SUPPORTIVE OF MAINTAINING MCS-TYPE STRUCTURE THROUGH SUNRISE AS IT MOVES INLAND. AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS GUSTY WINDS AND PERHAPS SOME HAIL WILL BE NOTED AS THIS CONVECTIONS SPREADS TOWARD THE COAST. ..DARROW.. 05/09/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...TBW...JAX... 29348295 28928219 28088227 28058335 28378362 28828330 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Tue May 9 14:51:16 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Tue, 09 May 2006 10:51:16 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 091448 SWOMCD SPC MCD 091447 ALZ000-FLZ000-MSZ000-LAZ000-091645- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0804 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0947 AM CDT TUE MAY 09 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...SRN MS...SE LA...SRN AL AND FAR WRN FL PANHANDLE CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 091447Z - 091645Z THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS ALONG THE GULF COAST BETWEEN NEW ORLEANS LA AND PENSACOLA FL. AS STORMS INTENSIFY...THE THREAT FOR ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE AND HAIL WILL INCREASE. A WW MAY BECOME NECESSARY WITHIN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A TIGHT MOISTURE GRADIENT EXTENDING ESEWD FROM NRN LA ACROSS SRN MS TO NEAR MOBILE AL. SFC DEWPOINTS SOUTHWEST OF THE GRADIENT ARE IN THE LOWER 70S F AND MODERATE INSTABILITY IS IN PLACE. ALTHOUGH OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS SHOWS A WEAK CAPPING INVERSION IS PRESENT...ELEVATED STORMS ARE DEVELOPING IN SRN MS AND FAR SRN AL ALONG THE MOISTURE GRADIENT. AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER LA EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY MOVES ACROSS THE REGION...INCREASING LARGE-SCALE ASCENT SHOULD RESULT IN A GRADUALLY EXPANSION OF THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW MODERATE TO STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES WHICH WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS ESPECIALLY LATER THIS AFTERNOON WHEN THE STORMS WILL LIKELY BECOME SFC-BASED. THE INSTABILITY...SHEAR AND STEEPENING LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR WIND DAMAGE AND HAIL WITH THE STRONGER CELLS THIS AFTERNOON. ..BROYLES.. 05/09/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MOB...JAN...LIX... 30349008 30739068 31169080 31579067 31949007 31788840 31378682 30848647 30298661 29868737 30018844  From mcd at goshenarc.org Tue May 9 15:03:59 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Tue, 09 May 2006 11:03:59 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 091501 SWOMCD SPC MCD 091500 TNZ000-KYZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-091700- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0805 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1000 AM CDT TUE MAY 09 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...SE MO...NE AR...WRN TN CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 313... VALID 091500Z - 091700Z A CONVECTIVE LINE AND AN ASSOCIATED BOW ECHO WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ESEWD INTO NE AR AND WRN TN OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. A SEVERE THREAT MAY CONTINUE WITH THE LINE WITH WIND DAMAGE AND ISOLATED LARGE HAIL BEING THE MAIN THREATS. A NEW WW WILL BE ISSUED SHORTLY. A WELL-DEVELOPED LINEAR MCS IS CURRENTLY MOVING INTO NE AR AND IS JUST NORTH OF A STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING WNW TO ESE FROM ERN OK ACROSS CNTRL AR INTO NRN MS. NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY...SFC DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S F AND THIS IS RESULTING IN INSTABILITY SUFFICIENT TO FUEL THE CONVECTIVE LINE THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON. THE MCS IS LOCATED IN THE NOSE OF A JET MAX NEAR 700 MB AND THE ENHANCED SHEAR IS SUPPORTING THE SEVERE POTENTIAL WITH THE CONVECTIVE LINE. AS LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES STEEPEN LATE THIS MORNING AND INSTABILITY CONTINUES TO INCREASE...THE LINE MAY REINTENSIFY ACROSS FAR NE AR AND WRN TN. WIND DAMAGE AND ISOLATED LARGE HAIL WOULD BE LIKELY WITH THE STRONGER CELLS EMBEDDED IN THE LINE. ..BROYLES.. 05/09/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...PAH...MEG...LZK...SGF... 35119006 35429126 36029164 36719128 36928992 36448875 35498870  From mcd at goshenarc.org Tue May 9 15:15:38 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Tue, 09 May 2006 11:15:38 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 091448 SWOMCD SPC MCD 091447 ALZ000-FLZ000-MSZ000-LAZ000-091645- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0804 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0947 AM CDT TUE MAY 09 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...SRN MS...SE LA...SRN AL AND FAR WRN FL PANHANDLE CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 091447Z - 091645Z THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS ALONG THE GULF COAST BETWEEN NEW ORLEANS LA AND PENSACOLA FL. AS STORMS INTENSIFY...THE THREAT FOR ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE AND HAIL WILL INCREASE. A WW MAY BECOME NECESSARY WITHIN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A TIGHT MOISTURE GRADIENT EXTENDING ESEWD FROM NRN LA ACROSS SRN MS TO NEAR MOBILE AL. SFC DEWPOINTS SOUTHWEST OF THE GRADIENT ARE IN THE LOWER 70S F AND MODERATE INSTABILITY IS IN PLACE. ALTHOUGH OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS SHOWS A WEAK CAPPING INVERSION IS PRESENT...ELEVATED STORMS ARE DEVELOPING IN SRN MS AND FAR SRN AL ALONG THE MOISTURE GRADIENT. AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER LA EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY MOVES ACROSS THE REGION...INCREASING LARGE-SCALE ASCENT SHOULD RESULT IN A GRADUALLY EXPANSION OF THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW MODERATE TO STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES WHICH WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS ESPECIALLY LATER THIS AFTERNOON WHEN THE STORMS WILL LIKELY BECOME SFC-BASED. THE INSTABILITY...SHEAR AND STEEPENING LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR WIND DAMAGE AND HAIL WITH THE STRONGER CELLS THIS AFTERNOON. ..BROYLES.. 05/09/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MOB...JAN...LIX... 30349008 30739068 31169080 31579067 31949007 31788840 31378682 30848647 30298661 29868737 30018844 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Tue May 9 17:31:53 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Tue, 09 May 2006 13:31:53 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 091729 SWOMCD SPC MCD 091729 TNZ000-ALZ000-KYZ000-MSZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-091900- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0806 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1229 PM CDT TUE MAY 09 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...WRN TN...FAR SW KY...FAR NRN MS...FAR NRN AL CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 315... VALID 091729Z - 091900Z A LINEAR MCS WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE A THREAT FOR ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE AND HAIL OVER THE NEXT 1 TO 2 HOURS. A WW MAY BECOME NECESSARY EAST OF WW 315 ACROSS WRN TO MIDDLE TN. LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A SUBTLE MOIST AXIS EXTENDING NWD FROM ERN MS INTO WRN TN WHERE SFC DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE MID 60S F. SFC HEATING ALONG THE MOIST AXIS IS RESULTING IN SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY TO SUSTAIN THE LINEAR MCS THIS AFTERNOON FOR SEVERAL MORE HOURS. OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS SHOWS A 55 KT MID-LEVEL JET MAX JUST BEHIND THE MCS LIKELY ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH EMBEDDED IN WLY FLOW ALOFT. LIFT AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE COMBINED WITH INCREASING SHEAR AS THE JET PUNCHES EWD SHOULD SUPPORT A SEVERE THREAT WITH THE MCS FOR AT LEAST A FEW MORE HOURS. THE WIND DAMAGE THREAT SHOULD CONTINUE AS THE LINEAR MCS MOVES INTO A SMALL AREA OF LOCALLY STEEPER LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ACROSS WRN TO MIDDLE TN. HAIL WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER CELLS IN THE LINE. ..BROYLES.. 05/09/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LMK...OHX...HUN...PAH...MEG... 35008965 35678999 36238968 36868895 36778755 36578645 36008587 35348590 34738652 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Tue May 9 18:35:44 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Tue, 09 May 2006 14:35:44 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 091833 SWOMCD SPC MCD 091833 ALZ000-MSZ000-ARZ000-092000- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0807 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0133 PM CDT TUE MAY 09 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...NRN MS CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 091833Z - 092000Z STORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP AND INCREASE IN COVERAGE ACROSS NRN MS OVER THE NEXT 1 TO 2 HOURS. THE STRONGER CELLS WILL LIKELY HAVE A POTENTIAL FOR WIND DAMAGE AND HAIL. A WW MAY BECOME NECESSARY BY 19Z. LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING EWD ACROSS CNTRL AR INTO NRN MS AND NW AL WITH SFC DEWPOINTS NEAR 70 F SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY. ACCORDING TO OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS...THE CAPPING INVERSION HAS WEAKENED ACROSS NRN MS AND LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE IS INCREASING ALONG THE BOUNDARY. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN CONVECTIVE INITIATION WITH STORMS INCREASING IN COVERAGE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. ALTHOUGH NRN MS APPEARS TO HAVE WEAKER VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES THAN AREAS FURTHER NORTH...THE SHEAR MAY BE ADEQUATE FOR A FEW SEVERE MULTICELL STORMS WITH HAIL AND ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE. IN ADDITION...A MESOSCALE THERMAL AXIS EXISTS ACROSS NE MS WHERE LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE MAXIMIZED. THIS MAY ENHANCE THE WIND DAMAGE POTENTIAL AS STORMS MOVE INTO NE MS BY LATE AFTERNOON. ..BROYLES.. 05/09/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...BMX...MEG...JAN... 33368934 33459058 34329086 34949003 34898843 34078819 33508844 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Tue May 9 19:58:11 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Tue, 09 May 2006 15:58:11 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 091956 SWOMCD SPC MCD 091955 TNZ000-ALZ000-MSZ000-092200- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0808 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0255 PM CDT TUE MAY 09 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...MIDDLE AND ERN TN...NRN AL...FAR NE MS CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 091955Z - 092200Z A PERSISTENT LINEAR MCS IS CURRENTLY MOVING INTO MIDDLE TN ATTM. A THREAT FOR WIND DAMAGE AND HAIL MAY CONTINUE AS THE LINE MOVES EWD INTO ERN TN AND NRN AL LATE THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...THE THREAT MAY REMAIN MARGINAL ENOUGH TO NOT WARRANT WW ISSUANCE FURTHER EAST. LATEST SFC ANALYSIS CURRENTLY SHOWS A MOIST AXIS JUST AHEAD OF THE MCS WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S F. MODERATE INSTABILITY IS PRESENT ACROSS SRN MIDDLE TN WITH INSTABILITY INCREASING FURTHER SOUTH ACROSS NRN AL. THIS SHOULD FUEL THE MCS WITH THE STRONGEST PART OF THE MCS LIKELY TURNING SEWD INTO THE GREATER INSTABILITY OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THE MCS IS LOCATED IN THE NOSE OF A MID-LEVEL JET BUT THE CONVECTIVE LINE SHOULD BEGIN TO OUTRUN THE STRONGER VERTICAL SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH THE JET OVER SRN MO. THIS MAY RESULT IN A GRADUAL WEAKENING OF THE CONVECTIVE LINE ESPECIALLY AS THE STORMS MOVE EWD INTO ERN TN LATE THIS AFTERNOON. FURTHER SOUTH ACROSS NRN AL...AN AXIS OF STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES EXISTS FROM THE TUPELO MS AREA NEWD TO THE HUNTSVILLE AL VICINITY. AS THE LINE MOVES INTO THIS CORRIDOR...THE POTENTIAL FOR THE LINE TO BE MAINTAINED SHOULD BE THE GREATEST. ..BROYLES.. 05/09/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MRX...OHX...BMX...HUN...MEG... 33818774 34348839 35158807 36488695 36438560 35758530 33668686 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Tue May 9 20:51:31 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Tue, 09 May 2006 16:51:31 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 092046 SWOMCD SPC MCD 092045 TXZ000-OKZ000-092245- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0809 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0345 PM CDT TUE MAY 09 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL AND ERN OK...NE TX CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 092045Z - 092245Z CONVECTIVE INITIATION APPEARS INCREASINGLY POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS ECNTRL OK WITH SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT LIKELY UPON INITIATION. A WW MAY BECOME NECESSARY IN THE NEXT 1 TO 2 HOURS. LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A MOIST AXIS EXTENDING NWD FROM NE TX ACROSS ERN OK WHERE SFC DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S F. STRONG INSTABILITY IS PRESENT ALONG THE MOIST AXIS WHERE THE CAPPING INVERSION HAS WEAKENED EVIDENT ON THE 19Z OUN SOUNDING. THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR INITIATION SHOULD BE NEAR THE STATIONARY FRONT LOCATED EAST OF OKC ALONG AND JUST SOUTH OF THE I-40 CORRIDOR. ALTHOUGH STILL UNCERTAIN...MODEL FORECASTS ARE IN THE BEST AGREEMENT WITH INITIATION OCCURRING IN ECNTRL OK WITH AN MCS CLUSTER ORGANIZING AND MOVING SSEWD TOWARD THE RED RIVER BY THIS EVENING. THE STRONG INSTABILITY AND MODERATE VERTICAL SHEAR SHOWN ON REGIONAL PROFILERS SHOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS. IN ADDITION...OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS SHOWS A PLUME OF STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES EXTENDING NEWD INTO SRN OK AND THIS WILL ENHANCE THE LARGE HAIL POTENTIAL WITH SUPERCELLS THAT DEVELOP. VERY LARGE HAIL WILL BE LIKELY WITH THE STRONGER SUPERCELLS. AS STORMS INCREASE IN COVERAGE THIS EVENING AND THE LOW-LEVEL JET EXPANDS NWD INTO SE OK...THE TORNADO AND WIND DAMAGE POTENTIAL SHOULD INCREASE AS WELL. ..BROYLES.. 05/09/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...SHV...TSA...FWD...OUN... 33069523 33149738 34609803 35649757 35989648 35749495 34559453 33799462  From mcd at goshenarc.org Tue May 9 20:58:50 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Tue, 09 May 2006 16:58:50 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 092057 SWOMCD SPC MCD 092057 ALZ000-MSZ000-092300- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0810 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0357 PM CDT TUE MAY 09 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN MS....CNTRL AND WRN AL CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 092057Z - 092300Z AN ISOLATED THREAT FOR WIND DAMAGE AND HAIL WILL LIKELY CONTINUE ACROSS ERN MS AND WRN AL OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. A NEW WW MAY BECOME NECESSARY LATE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE REGION. LATEST SFC ANALYSIS CURRENTLY SHOWS SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 70S F ACROSS MUCH OF SRN MS AND PARTS OF SW AL. MODERATE INSTABILITY IS PRESENT IN THIS AREA WITH A LARGE COMPLEX OF STORMS ORIENTED ALONG THE INSTABILITY GRADIENT. THE STORMS ARE BEING SUPPORTED BY THE INSTABILITY AND STRONG LARGE-SCALE ASCENT AHEAD OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE WEST AND EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. MODERATE TO STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR SHOWN ON WSR-88D VWPS SUGGESTS THAT SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF HAIL AND WIND DAMAGE WILL CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER CELLS. ..BROYLES.. 05/09/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...BMX...MOB...MEG...JAN... 31488658 31748867 33238915 34238858 34288789 33938716 32908650 32208625 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Tue May 9 21:10:25 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Tue, 09 May 2006 17:10:25 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 092108 SWOMCD SPC MCD 092108 TXZ000-092245- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0811 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0408 PM CDT TUE MAY 09 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...SCNTRL TX CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 092108Z - 092245Z ...SVR TSTMS POSSIBLE THIS AFTN/EVENING PENDING STORM INITIATION. WW WOULD BE NECESSARY IF STORMS DEVELOP... LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOW TOWERING CUMULUS DEVELOPING ON THE EDGE OF THE EDWARDS PLATEAU INVOF JCT/ECU. SHARP DRYLINE EXTENDS EAST OF ABI/SJT WITH BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS EAST OF THE DRYLINE IN THE LOWER 70S. ATMOSPHERE IS EXTREMELY UNSTABLE WITH MLCAPE VALUES IN EXCESS OF 4000 J/KG. DEEP LAYER SHEAR ON THE ORDER OF 50 KT AND VERY STEEP LOW/MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL SUPPORT SUPERCELLS WITH POTENTIALLY VERY LARGE HAIL OR AN ISOLD TORNADO IF STORMS FORM. ..TAYLOR.. 05/09/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...FWD...EWX...SJT... 29829809 29219986 29620060 30140037 31059969 31429896 31379802 30909759 30379770 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Tue May 9 21:10:25 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Tue, 09 May 2006 17:10:25 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 092108 SWOMCD SPC MCD 092108 TXZ000-092245- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0811 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0408 PM CDT TUE MAY 09 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...SCNTRL TX CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 092108Z - 092245Z ...SVR TSTMS POSSIBLE THIS AFTN/EVENING PENDING STORM INITIATION. WW WOULD BE NECESSARY IF STORMS DEVELOP... LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOW TOWERING CUMULUS DEVELOPING ON THE EDGE OF THE EDWARDS PLATEAU INVOF JCT/ECU. SHARP DRYLINE EXTENDS EAST OF ABI/SJT WITH BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS EAST OF THE DRYLINE IN THE LOWER 70S. ATMOSPHERE IS EXTREMELY UNSTABLE WITH MLCAPE VALUES IN EXCESS OF 4000 J/KG. DEEP LAYER SHEAR ON THE ORDER OF 50 KT AND VERY STEEP LOW/MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL SUPPORT SUPERCELLS WITH POTENTIALLY VERY LARGE HAIL OR AN ISOLD TORNADO IF STORMS FORM. ..TAYLOR.. 05/09/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...FWD...EWX...SJT... 29829809 29219986 29620060 30140037 31059969 31429896 31379802 30909759 30379770 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Tue May 9 21:48:33 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Tue, 09 May 2006 17:48:33 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 092147 SWOMCD SPC MCD 092146 MOZ000-ARZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-092315- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0812 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0446 PM CDT TUE MAY 09 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...SE KS/SW MO/NE OK CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 092146Z - 092315Z ...SEVERE POTENTIAL IS INCREASING ACROSS SRN MO INTO NE OK AND WATCH MAY BECOME NECESSARY SHORTLY... RESIDUAL COLD FRONT/OUTFLOW BOUNDARY NOW EXTENDS FROM DOUGLAS CO MISSOURI SWWD INTO NE OK. BOUNDARY CONTINUES SWWD JUST SE OF THE OKC AREA WHERE IT INTERSECTS ANOTHER OUTFLOW BOUNDARY BETWEEN NORMAN/SHAWNEE PER RADAR DATA FROM NORMAN. STORMS HAVE ALREADY DEVELOPED ALONG THIS BOUNDARY IN SRN MO...AND CONVECTIVE INHIBITION APPEARS TO BE WEAKENING FARTHER SOUTHWEST JUDGING BY SWELLING CUMULUS INTO OKLAHOMA. AIRMASS ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY IS EXTREMELY UNSTABLE...AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR SHOWN ON PROFILER DATA IS IN THE 40-50 KT RANGE. BACKED FLOW ACROSS MUSKOGEE/SEQUOYAH COUNTIES EWD SUGGESTS THERE MAY BE A DEVELOPING TORNADO THREAT IF DISCRETE STORMS CAN FORM INVOF OF THESE BOUNDARIES. ..TAYLOR.. 05/09/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...PAH...LSX...LZK...SGF...TSA...ICT... 36899097 35979362 35709628 36279649 37119608 37549465 37619273 37579145 37519093 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Tue May 9 23:32:29 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Tue, 09 May 2006 19:32:29 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 092331 SWOMCD SPC MCD 092330 ARZ000-MOZ000-OKZ000-TXZ000-100100- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0814 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0630 PM CDT TUE MAY 09 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN OK...NW AR...SRN MO CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 318...320... VALID 092330Z - 100100Z CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IS UNDERWAY NEAR/EAST OF RED RIVER VALLEY SURFACE LOW...AND ALONG LINGERING SURFACE BOUNDARY NORTHEAST OF LOW CENTER THROUGH THE OZARK PLATEAU. EXTREME POTENTIAL INSTABILITY WITH MIXED LAYER CAPE OF 3000 TO 4000 J/KG WILL SUPPORT INTENSE UPDRAFTS IN FAVORABLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT FOR SUPERCELLS. LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPHS APPEAR SUFFICIENT FOR RISK OF TORNADOES IN STRONGER STORMS...IN ADDITION TO VERY LARGE HAIL...WITH BEST PROFILES LIKELY DEVELOPING ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN OKLAHOMA ON NOSE OF STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL JET DURING THE 00-02Z TIME FRAME. EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF STORMS LIKELY WILL BE LIMITED TO NARROW INSTABILITY AXIS FROM WEST OF FORT SMITH AR THROUGH THE WEST PLAINS MO AREA...WHILE STRONGER/MORE FOCUSED LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE BEGINS TO SUPPORT EVOLUTION OF PRIMARY MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM ACROSS SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA. ..KERR.. 05/09/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...PAH...MEG...LZK...SGF...SHV...TSA...FWD...OUN... 35139699 35709591 36299478 36669368 36969235 36979112 36699055 36399089 36119198 35819308 35399388 35109442 34229453 33749513 33599579 33739683 34699715 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Tue May 9 23:35:06 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Tue, 09 May 2006 19:35:06 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 092333 SWOMCD SPC MCD 092333 ALZ000-MSZ000-100030- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0815 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0633 PM CDT TUE MAY 09 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL MS INTO SRN AL CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 317...319... VALID 092333Z - 100030Z ...LINGERING SEVERE THREAT EXISTS ACROSS PORTIONS OF CNTRL MS WITH TORNADO THREAT WITH ANY DISCRETE CELLS... WATCH 317 IS SCHEDULED TO EXPIRE AT 00Z...BUT CYCLIC SUPERCELL NOW OVER SMITH COUNTY WILL STILL POSE A THREAT BEYOND THAT TIME. PORTIONS OF THE WATCH MAY NEED TO BE LOCALLY EXTENDED TO ACCOUNT FOR THE ONGOING RISK. OTHER STORMS FROM WINSTON CO SWD TO CLARKE CO WILL BE MOVING INTO AL...AND WATCH 319. IMPULSE ACROSS SE MS IS NOTED IN WV LOOPS AND THIS IS ENHANCING LARGE SCALE ASCENT ACROSS MS/AL...AND IMPROVING DEEP LAYER SHEAR. RECENT RADAR DATA FROM MOBILE AL SUGGEST HISTORY OF MESOCYCLONE SIGNATURES WITH DISCRETE CELLS NOW ABOUT 40 ESE OF JACKSON MS AND STORMS NOW OVER CHOCTAW AND CLARKE COUNTIES IN SRN AL. VAD WIND DATA FROM MOBILE INDICATES ABOUT 25 KT LOW LEVEL SHEAR...WITH WIND LAYER PROFILES FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS WITH A TORNADO THREAT. OTHER THREATS INCLUDE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. ..TAYLOR.. 05/09/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...TAE...BMX...MOB...JAN... 31138658 30978860 31729019 32669014 32898976 33008879 32838656 32598588 31888520 31298548 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Wed May 10 01:08:17 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Tue, 09 May 2006 21:08:17 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 100106 SWOMCD SPC MCD 100106 OKZ000-TXZ000-100230- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0816 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0806 PM CDT TUE MAY 09 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF NW TX/TX PNHDL INTO SW OK CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 321... VALID 100106Z - 100230Z MID/UPPER FORCING CONTINUES TO DEVELOP SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE SOUTH CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...AND HAS SUPPORTED INCREASING/ INTENSIFYING...MOSTLY HIGH-BASED...CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE NORTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE. ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY HAS FORMED ALONG ZONE OF STRONGER LOWER/MID TROPOSPHERIC WARM ADVECTION THROUGH THE EASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE INTO PARTS OF NORTHWEST TEXAS. CONSOLIDATION OF CONVECTION INTO MORE ORGANIZED MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM STILL APPEARS POSSIBLE THIS EVENING...MOST LIKELY NEAR 850-700 MB BAROCLINIC ZONE ACROSS SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA BY 03Z. THIS WILL BE SUPPORTED BY INGESTION OF INCREASINGLY MOIST POST FRONTAL BOUNDARY LAYER NEAR/NORTH OF THE RED RIVER. BENEATH STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATE ENVIRONMENT...MOST UNSTABLE CAPE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN AROUND OR ABOVE 2000 J/KG...WHICH WILL CONTRIBUTE TO VIGOROUS UPDRAFTS WITH LARGE HAIL AND HEAVY RAIN. EVAPORATIVE COOLING IN DOWNDRAFTS IS EXPECTED TO BE SUFFICIENT FOR EVOLVING COLD POOL WITH DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL. ..KERR.. 05/10/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...OUN...LUB...AMA... 35670080 36060029 36119923 35799819 35249769 34379805 34109894 34250000 34450075 34760102 35180106 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Wed May 10 02:39:59 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Tue, 09 May 2006 22:39:59 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 100238 SWOMCD SPC MCD 100238 ARZ000-TXZ000-OKZ000-100415- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0817 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0938 PM CDT TUE MAY 09 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...SRN OK...PARTS OF NRN TX INTO THE ARKLATEX? CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 318... VALID 100238Z - 100415Z ADDITIONAL WW PROBABLY WILL BE NEEDED SHORTLY ACROSS SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA. MID-LEVEL THERMAL RIDGE SUPPRESSING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA SEEMS LIKELY TO BREAK DOWN DURING THE 03-06Z TIME. THIS WILL OCCUR AS STRONGER MID/UPPER FORCING CONTINUES TO SHIFT EAST SOUTHEASTWARD OUT OF THE SOUTH CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...AHEAD OF VIGOROUS IMPULSE ROTATING AROUND SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF NORTH PLAINS CLOSED LOW. ENVIRONMENT ALONG LOW-LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE NEAR/NORTH OF THE RED RIVER IS POTENTIALLY VERY UNSTABLE WITH MOST UNSTABLE CAPE ON THE ORDER OF 2000-4000 J/KG... AND WILL FAVOR RAPID NEW CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT AS INHIBITION WEAKENS. LARGE HAIL IS LIKELY...AND DRY POTENTIALLY COLD MID-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT EVIDENT IN 00Z NORMAN SOUNDING MAY CONTRIBUTE TO SUFFICIENT NEGATIVE BUOYANCY IN DOWNDRAFTS FOR DAMAGING SURFACE WIND POTENTIAL...DESPITE DEVELOPING SURFACE INVERSION. TORNADO POTENTIAL APPEARS TO BE DECREASING WITH ACTIVITY NORTHEAST OF SURFACE LOW...ON NOSE OF LOW-LEVEL JET...ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN OKLAHOMA. LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL WILL CONTINUE THOUGH ...WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN ALSO BECOMING AN INCREASING THREAT. WITH MAIN UPPER SUPPORT STILL UPSTREAM...CONVECTION MAY BE SLOW TO DEVELOP SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE ARKLATEX. ..KERR.. 05/10/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LZK...SHV...TSA...FWD...OUN... 35179952 35479838 35479696 35339630 34839488 33879416 33519456 33399543 33409634 33519787 33609893 33889961 34469994 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Wed May 10 02:56:28 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Tue, 09 May 2006 22:56:28 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 100255 SWOMCD SPC MCD 100254 FLZ000-GAZ000-ALZ000-MSZ000-100500- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0818 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0954 PM CDT TUE MAY 09 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...SRN AL/SWRN GA/PANHANDLE FL CONCERNING...CONVECTIVE TRENDS VALID 100254Z - 100500Z CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO SPREAD EWD AS UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE OVER ECNTRL MS CONTINUES ITS RAPID EWD MOVEMENT. MUCAPES IN THE REGION RANGE FROM ABOUT 1500 J/KG OVER SRN AL AND DECREASE TO ABOUT 1000 J/KG IN SWRN GA. ALTHOUGH THE STORMS ARE MAINLY ELEVATED ALONG AND NORTH OF SURFACE BOUNDARY WHICH EXTENDS FROM JUST SOUTH OF BGE TO CEW TO JUST NORTH OF PIB...EFFECTIVE SHEAR NEAR THE GULF COAST REMAINS AOA 40 J/KG. WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING/DIMINISHING INSTABILITY STORMS HAVE BEEN DECREASING IN INTENSITY THROUGH THE EVENING. THE LARGE SCALE ENVIRONMENT BECOMES LESS FAVORABLE WITH TIME AS THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE MOVES EWD...SO STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO WEAKEN FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE EVENING. DUE TO THE ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT ANOTHER WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME. ..BRIGHT.. 05/10/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...TAE...BMX...MOB...LIX... 31938782 32228712 32168639 31858506 31408395 30878348 29958334 30188424 30178569 30448643 30368825 30648918 31408866 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Wed May 10 07:07:11 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Wed, 10 May 2006 03:07:11 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 100705 SWOMCD SPC MCD 100705 TNZ000-ALZ000-MSZ000-100800- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0819 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0205 AM CDT WED MAY 10 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...NERN MS...NWRN AL...MIDDLE TN CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 100705Z - 100800Z ...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE NRN GULF STATES AND MIDDLE TN... LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION IS INCREASING ACROSS THE NRN GULF STATES INTO THE TN VALLEY. EXPANDING THUNDERSTORM CLUSTERS OVER NWRN MS SHOULD CONTINUE TO DEVELOP NEWD AND MOVE EAST OF THE CURRENT WATCH WITHIN THE HOUR. SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED SOON FOR ADJACENT AREAS DOWNSTREAM. ..DARROW.. 05/10/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...OHX...BMX...HUN...MEG...JAN... 33158977 36468835 36208669 33258766 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Wed May 10 09:02:46 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Wed, 10 May 2006 05:02:46 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 100901 SWOMCD SPC MCD 100901 ARZ000-TXZ000-OKZ000-101030- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0820 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0401 AM CDT WED MAY 10 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...SRN OK...EXTREME NERN TX AND CNTRL/WRN AR CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 100901Z - 101030Z WEATHER WATCHES MAY NEED TO BE REALIGNED ACROSS THE REGION BY 10Z OR SO. A SECONDARY MID-LEVEL IMPULSE WAS MOVING INTO WRN OK THIS MORNING AND APPEARS TO BE LARGELY RESPONSIBLE FOR THE TSTM CLUSTER MOVING INTO CNTRL/SWRN OK AND WRN N TX. MESOANALYSIS PLACES A COLD FRONT ARCING FROM NWRN AR ACROSS SERN OK...THEN WWD ALONG THE RED RIVER INTO THE VERNON TX AREA. TSTMS HAVE RECENTLY INTENSIFIED ALONG THIS FRONT FROM NEAR FORT SMITH TO PARIS TX...AS THE UPSTREAM WAVE APPROACHES THE REGION. SWLY LOW-LEVEL JET HAS MAINTAINED A FLOW OF UNSTABLE PARCELS FROM N TX INTO OK AND AR THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES ALOFT WILL MAINTAIN A LARGE HAIL THREAT. MOREOVER...A 50-60 KT MID-LEVEL JET ASSOCD WITH THE IMPULSE WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE SUFFICIENT VERTICAL SHEAR FOR SUPERCELL STRUCTURES EMBEDDED WITHIN LINEAR SEGMENTS. THE LINES WILL TEND TO BOW AND PRODUCE DAMAGING WINDS. THE GREATEST SEVERE RISK APPEARS TO BE ACROSS EXTREME NERN TX INTO PARTS OF WRN AR...BUT THE SRN-MOST CELLS ACROSS WRN N TX/SWRN OK MAY REMAIN POTENTIALLY SEVERE AS THEY MOVE INTO SWRN/SCNTRL OK. ..RACY.. 05/10/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LZK...SHV...TSA...FWD...OUN... 34739973 35449879 35539579 35679323 34439260 33419330 32989532 33189686 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Wed May 10 10:20:02 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Wed, 10 May 2006 06:20:02 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 101018 SWOMCD SPC MCD 101018 OKZ000-TXZ000-101145- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0822 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0518 AM CDT WED MAY 10 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...EXTREME SRN OK AND EXTREME NRN PARTS OF NCNTRL TX CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 101018Z - 101145Z A PERSISTENT TSTM LINE SEGMENT HAS BEEN PRODUCING 70+ MPH WIND GUSTS ACROSS SRN TILLMAN COUNTY OK. THIS CELL IS MOVING 275/53 AND WILL BE MOVING INTO AREAS NEAR/S OF KADM BY 1115-1130Z AND LAKE TEXHOMA BY 1230Z...ALSO POSSIBLY AFFECTING THE NRN TIER OF TX COUNTIES ALONG THE RED RIVER. SFC ANALYSIS PLACES AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ARCING FROM MCCURTAIN COUNTY OK SWWD THROUGH THE NRN PARTS OF THE DFW METROPLEX. THE COLD DOME IS SUFFICIENTLY SHALLOW TO ALLOW STRONG DOWNDRAFTS TO MAKE IT TO THE SFC. BUT...THE COLDER AIR IS LIKELY DEEPER ACROSS AREAS EAST OF I-35 INTO SERN OK WHERE SIGNIFICANT TSTMS FORMED DURING TUE EVENING. AS SUCH...THE DAMAGING WIND THREAT MAY BE REDUCED BY THE TIME THE CELL REACHES THE ATOKA AREA LATER THIS MORNING. THE LARGE HAIL THREAT WILL LIKELY CONTINUE...HOWEVER ...GIVEN STEEP H5-H7 LAPSE RATES. THE LINE SEGMENT WILL PROBABLY NOT DEVELOP FARTHER S INTO NCNTRL TX OWING TO STRONGER CAP. ..RACY.. 05/10/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...TSA...FWD...OUN... 34509863 34549523 34119536 33669598 33619700 34059845 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Wed May 10 10:49:37 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Wed, 10 May 2006 06:49:37 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 101048 SWOMCD SPC MCD 101047 ALZ000-MSZ000-101215- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0823 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0547 AM CDT WED MAY 10 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...SMALL PART OF ECNTRL/SERN MS AND CNTRL/SRN AL CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 101047Z - 101215Z LINEAR MCS CONTINUES TO MOVE EWD INTO/THROUGH NWRN/WCNTRL AL AND ECNTRL MS. NRN EDGE OF THE MCS WAS WEAKENING AS IT MOVES BEYOND THE PRIMARY FEED OF INSTABILITY. BUT...SRN EDGE OF THE COMPLEX CONTINUES TO MAINTAIN/INCREASE INTENSITY. LATEST PROFILER/VWP PLOT SUGGESTS THAT THE AXIS OF 30-35 KT SWLY H85 JET WAS SITUATED FROM NRN LA INTO NRN MS. PARCELS FEEDING THE TSTMS WERE ORIGINATING IN A PLUME OF VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES AND SHOULD CONTINUE TO FAVOR AN ORGANIZED MCS FOR A FEW MORE HOURS. AIR MASS DOWNSTREAM ACROSS THE SWRN HALF OF AL WAS RECOVERING WITH THE BOUNDARY LAYER DEW POINTS INCREASING. IF THE MOST UNSTABLE PORTION OF THE WARM SECTOR CAN BECOME SITUATED MORE NW-SE AHEAD OF THE COMPLEX OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS...A DAMAGING WIND BOW ECHO TYPE OF SITUATION MAY CONTINUE ACROSS CNTRL/SRN PARTS OF AL. AS SUCH...A NEW WW MAY BE NEEDED ACROSS THESE AREAS. ..RACY.. 05/10/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...TAE...BMX...HUN...MOB...JAN... 34178766 33588603 32618532 32038517 31348520 31168591 31428706 31868829 32198870 32818893 33448831 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Wed May 10 11:29:16 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Wed, 10 May 2006 07:29:16 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 101128 SWOMCD SPC MCD 101127 TNZ000-MSZ000-ARZ000-TXZ000-OKZ000-101300- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0824 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0627 AM CDT WED MAY 10 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...EXTREME SERN OK...EXTREME NERN OK...SRN/CNTRL AR...NWRN MS...FAR WRN TN CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 101127Z - 101300Z MIDDLE OF THREE LINEAR MCS/S CONTINUES TO MOVE ACROSS AR THIS MORNING. INDIVIDUAL STORMS WITHIN THE LINE HAVE BEEN EXHIBITING VARIOUS STORM MODES...AND MAY BE STRUGGLING SOMEWHAT GIVEN THE SHORT WAVE LENGTH BETWEEN THE LINE AND THE LEAD MCS ACROSS AL/MS. UPSTREAM...A PERSISTENT LINE OF TSTMS CONTINUES MOVING RAPIDLY EWD JUST N OF THE RED RIVER IN SCNTRL OK...TIED TO A MIDLEVEL IMPULSE MOVING ACROSS WRN OK. MESOANALYSIS PLACES AN OUTFLOW ARCING FROM SRN MS ACROSS NRN LA...THEN SWWD INTO NCNTRL TX. DESPITE THE COOLER BOUNDARY LAYER IN PLACE DOWNSTREAM INTO THE MID-SOUTH...THE FEED OF UNSTABLE PARCELS ABOVE THIS SHALLOW STABLE LAYER WILL MAINTAIN THE TSTMS. STRONGER STORMS WILL FAVOR THE SRN END OF THE MCS AS IT MOVES ACROSS SERN AR INTO NWRN MS THROUGH 13-15Z. THE STORMS MAY INCREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE AND INTENSITY ONCE THE UPSTREAM MID-LEVEL IMPULSE OVER OK MOVES INTO THE ARKLATEX REGION. LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREAT FOR A WHILE LONGER...BUT DAMAGING WIND AND TORNADO PROBABILITIES WILL INCREASE AS THE MORNING WEARS ON. ..RACY.. 05/10/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MEG...JAN...LZK...SHV... 33699523 35799156 35778987 34608951 33229034 33059086 33159407 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Wed May 10 13:33:09 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Wed, 10 May 2006 09:33:09 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 101331 SWOMCD SPC MCD 101331 ALZ000-MSZ000-101500- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0825 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0831 AM CDT WED MAY 10 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...NRN MS...WRN AL CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 101331Z - 101500Z A LINEAR MCS NEAR THE MS RIVER WILL CONTINUE ESEWD ACROSS NRN MS AND WRN AL. A THREAT FOR WIND DAMAGE AND HAIL MAY CONTINUE WITH THE MCS OVER THE NEXT 1 TO 3 HOURS. LATEST SFC ANALYSIS CURRENTLY SHOWS A SFC LOW OVER NWRN MS WITH SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S F ACROSS MOST OF CNTRL AND NRN MS. SFC TEMPS ARE WARMER SOUTH OF THE MCS ACROSS CNTRL MS WHERE MODERATE INSTABILITY EXISTS. THE MCS IS TRACKING ALONG THE INSTABILITY GRADIENT AND AS DESTABILIZATION CONTINUES THIS MORNING...THE INSTABILITY SHOULD SUSTAIN THE MCS. WSR-88D VAD WIND PROFILERS SHOW 0-6 KM SHEAR VALUES IN THE 40 TO 50 KT RANGE SUGGESTING ORGANIZED SEVERE CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE THIS MORNING. BECAUSE THE MCS HAS ORGANIZED INTO A SHORT-LINE...THE THREAT FOR WIND DAMAGE WITH BOWING SEGMENTS MAY BE THE GREATEST THREAT. HAIL WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER CELLS IN THE LINE. ..BROYLES.. 05/10/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...BMX...MEG...JAN... 32708840 33139050 33569083 34279052 34508975 34068777 33398735 32838758 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Wed May 10 15:59:07 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Wed, 10 May 2006 11:59:07 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 101557 SWOMCD SPC MCD 101557 MSZ000-ARZ000-LAZ000-101800- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0826 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1057 AM CDT WED MAY 10 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...NCNTRL AND NE LA...WRN AND CNTRL MS...FAR SE AR CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 101557Z - 101800Z THE TORNADO THREAT WILL INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS NCNTRL/NERN LA...WRN/CNTRL MS AND FAR SE AR. A NEW WW WILL LIKELY BECOME NECESSARY AROUND 17Z ACROSS THE REGION. LATEST SFC ANALYSIS CURRENTLY SHOWS A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDING ESEWD ACROSS NRN LA INTO CNTRL MS. SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY...DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE LOWER 70S F AND AN AXIS OF STRONG INSTABILITY IS PRESENT EXTENDING SWWD FROM THE BOUNDARY ACROSS LA INTO SERN TX. A LINEAR MCS JUST NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY ACROSS SERN AR WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ESEWD ALONG THE NORTH EDGE OF THE STRONGER INSTABILITY. REGIONAL WSR-88D VAD WIND PROFILES SHOW STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES WHICH SHOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS AND BOW ECHOES AS THE MCS TRACKS ESEWD ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. THE THREAT FOR SUPERCELLS WITH TORNADO POTENTIAL SHOULD BE GREATEST ALONG THE SOUTH END OF THE MCS WHERE STORMS WILL HAVE AXIS TO STRONGER INSTABILITY. WIND DAMAGE AND HAIL WILL ALSO BE LIKELY WITH THE STRONGER CELLS EMBEDDED IN THE LINE. FURTHER SOUTHWEST...SFC ANALYSIS CURRENTLY SHOWS A MESOSCALE THERMAL AXIS LOCATED FROM CNTRL LA EXTENDING NEWD INTO THE NE LA. ALTHOUGH THE TIMING OF INITIATION REMAINS UNCERTAIN...CELLS COULD INITIATE ALONG THIS THERMAL AXIS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THE LOW-LEVEL SHEAR ENVIRONMENT SHOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS AND TORNADOES WITH DISCRETE CELLS THAT DEVELOP AND MOVE EWD ACROSS NCNTRL/NE LA AND WRN/CNTRL MS LATER THIS AFTERNOON. THE GREATER TORNADO THREAT SHOULD EXIST NEAR THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY IN WRN AND CNTRL MS LATER THIS AFTERNOON. ..BROYLES.. 05/10/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...JAN...LZK...SHV... 31439096 31729228 32109295 32949302 33579228 33589113 33509034 33278943 32618888 31618930 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Wed May 10 17:23:21 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Wed, 10 May 2006 13:23:21 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 101722 SWOMCD SPC MCD 101721 GAZ000-ALZ000-101845- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0827 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1221 PM CDT WED MAY 10 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...NRN AL...WRN GA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 101721Z - 101845Z A THREAT FOR WIND DAMAGE AND HAIL MAY CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS WITH A LINEAR MCS CROSSING NRN AL ATTM. WW MAY BECOME NECESSARY ACROSS THE REGION SHORTLY. AN MCS IS ONGOING WELL NORTH OF A STATIONARY FRONT LOCATED IN SCNTRL AL. NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY...SFC DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S F WITH ENOUGH INSTABILITY IN PLACE TO MAINTAIN THE LINE FOR A FEW MORE HOURS. THE MCS APPEARS CLOSELY RELATED TO A 55 KT MID-LEVEL JET MAX LOCATED JUST BEHIND THE LINE ACCORDING TO RUC ANALYSIS. ALTHOUGH THE LINE APPEARS SLIGHTLY ELEVATED IN NATURE...THE FORWARD SPEED OF THE MCS SHOULD RESULT IN STRONG WIND GUSTS ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF THE LINE. THE WIND DAMAGE POTENTIAL COULD BE ENHANCED JUST AHEAD OF BOWING SEGMENTS WITH HAIL ALSO POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER CELLS IN THE LINE. ..BROYLES.. 05/10/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...FFC...BMX...HUN... 34468636 34268506 33638455 32848449 32298534 32508683 33188758 33988723 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Wed May 10 17:43:41 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Wed, 10 May 2006 13:43:41 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 101742 SWOMCD SPC MCD 101742 ALZ000-101915- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0828 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1242 PM CDT WED MAY 10 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...SRN AL CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 329... VALID 101742Z - 101915Z WW 329 WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 18Z. HOWEVER A NEW WW MAY BE NEEDED AROUND 19Z AS CONVECTION OVER MS BEGINS TO DEVELOP SEWD INTO THE REGION. EARLIER CONVECTION HAS DIMINISHED AND MOVED EWD INTO SWRN GA. AREA REMAINS UNDER BROAD WAA PROFILE AND STRONG LOW-MID LEVEL SHEAR. COPIOUS CLOUD COVER WILL LIKELY INHIBIT CONVECTION FROM DEVELOPING IN THE WAA PROFILE FOR THE NEXT FEW HRS. HOWEVER...CONVECTION DEVELOPING FURTHER WEST OVER CENTRAL MS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY AND SHOULD BEGIN TO MOVE INTO SWRN AL AFTER 19Z. WITH CONTINUED DESTABILIZATION EXPECTED OVER SRN AL...SVR THREAT WILL LIKELY REDEVELOP AFTER THIS TIME. GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE LOW LEVEL SHEAR...ANY NEW WW WILL LIKELY BE TORNADO. ..CROSBIE.. 05/10/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...TAE...BMX...MOB... 32178641 32568813 32268824 31538828 31338788 31098675 31078539 31238517 31868523 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Wed May 10 17:52:02 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Wed, 10 May 2006 13:52:02 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 101750 SWOMCD SPC MCD 101750 LAZ000-TXZ000-101945- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0829 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1250 PM CDT WED MAY 10 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...NE TX...NW LA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 101750Z - 101945Z STORMS WILL INITIATE ACROSS NE TX AND NW LA WITHIN THE NEXT 1 TO 2 HOURS. A WW WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED ACROSS THE REGION BY 1830Z. LATEST SFC ANALYSIS CURRENTLY SHOWS A COLD FRONT ADVANCING SEWD ACROSS NE TX AND JUST ENTERING FAR NW LA. SOUTHEAST OF THE BOUNDARY...SFC DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE LOWER 70S F AND STRONG INSTABILITY IS IN PLACE. A CAPPING INVERSION EXISTS ACROSS MUCH OF EAST TX AND WRN LA HOWEVER...THE CAP HAS WEAKENED OVER THE LAST HOUR ACCORDING TO OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS AND THE SHV 17Z SOUNDING. AS CONVERGENCE INCREASES ALONG THE BOUNDARY...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD INITIATE ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT. FORECAST SOUNDINGS THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS EAST TX AND WRN LA SHOW STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES WITH STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AROUND 8.0 C/KM. THIS ALONG WITH THE STRONG INSTABILITY SHOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL. AN ISOLATED TORNADO AND WIND DAMAGE THREAT WILL ALSO INCREASE IN THE LATE AFTERNOON AS THE SUPERCELLS MATURE AND INCREASE IN INTENSITY. ..BROYLES.. 05/10/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LCH...SHV...HGX... 31099336 30709469 31079522 31799520 32449421 32799313 32479234 32029214 31539250 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Wed May 10 18:41:51 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Wed, 10 May 2006 14:41:51 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 101839 SWOMCD SPC MCD 101838 MIZ000-OHZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-102045- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0830 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0138 PM CDT WED MAY 10 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...SRN LOWER MI/NWRN OH...WRN/NRN IND AND ECENTRAL IL CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 101838Z - 102045Z ISOLATED TSTMS DEVELOPING ALONG A STATIONARY BNDRY FROM ECENTRAL IL NEWD INTO SCENTRAL LOWER MI MAY BEGIN TO POSE A THREAT FOR MARGINALLY SVR HAIL IN THE NEXT 1-2 HRS. GENERAL MARGINAL NATURE OF THE SVR THREAT SUGGESTS A LIMITED NEED FOR A WW FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT SEVERAL HRS. 18Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM A SFC LOW NEAR STL NEWD TO CMI TO SBN TO BTL. ALTHOUGH A BROAD AREA OF CIRRUS WAS OVER MUCH OF THE REGION... SUFFICIENT HEATING HAS OCCURRED ALONG WITH INCREASING LARGE SCALE ASCENT TO SUPPORT ISOLATED TSTM DEVELOPMENT ALONG AND NEAR THIS BOUNDARY. ALTHOUGH 3-6 KM LAPSE RATES ARE LIMITED /6 DEG C/KM/...LAPSE RATES IN A SLIGHTLY SHALLOWER LAYER /3-5 KM/ WHERE MORE ROBUST /7 DEG C/KM/. REGIONAL VWP/S INDICATE NLY FLOW IN THE 0-3 KM LAYER...WITH INCREASING SWLY FLOW ABOVE THIS LAYER. THUS...THE 0-6 KM SHEAR WAS MODEST /30-35 KTS/ AND SHOULD GRADUALLY INCREASE DURING THE NEXT FEW HRS AHEAD OF APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE MS VALLEY. THE MAIN LIMITING FACTORS FOR A MORE ORGANIZED SVR THREAT SHOULD BE THE MARGINAL INSTABILITY /MUCAPES FROM 750-1000 J/KG/ AND WEAK MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. ..CROSBIE.. 05/10/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...IWX...GRR...IND...LOT...ILX... 42718576 42178626 41128741 40488828 39248866 38998844 39238789 40108659 40978538 41728466 42468414 42738447  From mcd at goshenarc.org Wed May 10 19:35:58 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Wed, 10 May 2006 15:35:58 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 101934 SWOMCD SPC MCD 101934 TXZ000-102130- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0831 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0234 PM CDT WED MAY 10 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...SRN/SERN TX CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 101934Z - 102130Z SVR TSTMS ARE ANTICIPATED TO BEGIN DEVELOPING ALONG A COLD FRONT FROM SERN TX INTO THE MIDDLE TX COASTAL PLAIN IN THE NEXT 1-2 HRS. SVR TSTMS MAY DEVELOP AS FAR SOUTH AS THE LOWER RIO GRANDE RIVER VALLEY OF SOUTH TX. AREA WILL BE MONITORED FOR THE POTENTIAL OF ONE OR MORE WW/S BY 21Z. LATEST VIS IMAGERY SHOWS TOWERING CU DEVELOPING ALONG A COLD FRONT FROM JUST NORTH OF HOUSTON SWWD ALONG THE MIDDLE TX COASTAL PLAIN. MODIFIED RUC SOUNDINGS SHOW AN EXTREMELY UNSTABLE AIRMASS WITH MLCAPES ABOVE 5000 J/KG AND VERY LITTLE CINH REMAINING. CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT /WHICH IS 2 KM DEEP PER RECENT GRK VWP DATA/ SHOULD SUPPORT TSTM DEVELOPMENT WITHIN THE NEXT 1-2 HRS. THE COMBINATION OF MODERATE MID LEVEL FLOW /30 KTS/ AND INSTABILITY SHOULD SUPPORT RAPID STORM INTENSIFICATION AND A LARGE HAIL/DMGG WIND THREAT. A WW MAY BE NEEDED FOR THIS AREA SHORTLY. FURTHER SOUTH ALONG THE LOWER TX COAST/LOWER RIO GRANDE RIVER VALLEY...A VERY UNSTABLE AIRMASS EXISTS AS WELL. A SLIGHTLY STRONGER CAP THAN FURTHER NORTH /PER THE 12Z CRP SOUNDING/ MAY DELAY CONVECTIVE INITIATION FOR ANOTHER FEW MORE HRS...UNTIL THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES INTO THE AREA BEGINNING AROUND 21Z. AGAIN THE DEGREE OF INSTABILITY AND MODEST SHEAR WOULD SUPPORT A SVR HAIL/WIND THREAT QUICKLY AFTER ANY STORM INITIATION. SLIGHTLY GREATER LOW LVL LAPSE RATES SUGGEST THAT THE WIND THREAT MAY BE SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN IN THE MIDDLE TX COAST. ..CROSBIE.. 05/10/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...HGX...CRP...EWX...BRO... 31169486 29999676 28899810 27119913 26669912 26339880 26009808 26179791 26959748 28299676 29379478 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Wed May 10 19:43:59 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Wed, 10 May 2006 15:43:59 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 101942 SWOMCD SPC MCD 101942 ALZ000-MSZ000-LAZ000-102145- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0832 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0242 PM CDT WED MAY 10 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL MS...NE LA AND SRN AL CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 332... VALID 101942Z - 102145Z THE TORNADO THREAT WILL LIKELY INCREASE OVER THE NEXT 1 TO 2 HOURS ACROSS CNTRL MS...NE LA AND SRN AL. A STRONG TORNADO OR TWO MAY OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE STRONGER MORE WELL-DEVELOPED SUPERCELLS. DISCRETE SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT APPEARS TO BE UNDERWAY ACROSS NE LA WITH ADDITIONAL CELLS DEVELOPING ACROSS CNTRL AND ERN MS. OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS SHOWS A 45 KT LOW-LEVEL JET CENTERED OVER SWRN MS WITH STRONG LOW-LEVEL SHEAR PROFILES PRESENT ACROSS CNTRL MS EXTENDING WWD INTO NE LA AND EWD INTO SRN AL. IN ADDITION...JACKSON MS WSR-88D CURRENTLY SHOWS AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY SPREADING SWD ACROSS CNTRL MS ALONG THE I-20 CORRIDOR. AS SUPERCELLS MOVE EWD ALONG THIS BOUNDARY...THE TORNADO THREAT WILL LIKELY BECOME ENHANCED LATE THIS AFTERNOON WITH A STRONG TORNADO OR TWO POSSIBLE. THE STRONG TORNADO POTENTIAL WILL LIKELY BE GREATEST WITH SUPERCELLS THAT REMAIN DISCRETE AND TRACK ESEWD INTO THE LOW-LEVEL JET. THE INSTABILITY/SHEAR ENVIRONMENT ALSO SUGGESTS LARGE HAIL AND WIND DAMAGE WILL BE LIKELY WITH THE STRONGER STORMS. ..BROYLES.. 05/10/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...BMX...MOB...JAN...SHV... 31338790 31549126 31659229 32209266 32779241 32929119 32818921 32638804 32418715 31858699 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Wed May 10 20:24:43 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Wed, 10 May 2006 16:24:43 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 102023 SWOMCD SPC MCD 102023 GAZ000-ALZ000-102230- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0833 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0323 PM CDT WED MAY 10 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...SE AL...SRN GA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 102023Z - 102230Z A LONG-LIVED LINEAR MCS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EWD ACROSS SRN GA THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS EVENING. WIND DAMAGE AND HAIL WILL BE LIKELY WITH THE STRONGER CELLS IN THE LINE. A WW MAY BECOME NECESSARY ACROSS THE REGION BY 21Z. LATEST SFC ANALYSIS CURRENTLY SHOWS A DIFFUSE STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDING WEST TO EAST LOCATED ACROSS SCNTRL GA AND ERN AL. THE MCS IS LOCATED JUST NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY WHERE SFC DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S F AND MODERATE INSTABILITY IS PRESENT. THIS ALONG WITH SHARP PRESSURE FALLS AHEAD OF THE MCS SHOULD SUSTAIN THE CONVECTIVE LINE EWD ACROSS SRN GA OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES SHOWN ON WSR-88D VWPS WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE STORMS WITH THE STRONGER CELLS IN THE LINE. IN ADDITION...STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL FLOW MAY ENHANCE THE WIND DAMAGE POTENTIAL LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS EVENING. ..BROYLES.. 05/10/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...JAX...FFC...TAE...BMX... 31218323 31458443 31948561 32508584 33208533 33248442 33088368 32818299 32548259 31518276 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Wed May 10 20:43:55 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Wed, 10 May 2006 16:43:55 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 102042 SWOMCD SPC MCD 102042 INZ000-KYZ000-ILZ000-102245- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0834 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0342 PM CDT WED MAY 10 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...FAR SRN IL...WRN KY AND FAR SRN IND CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 102042Z - 102245Z THREAT FOR LOW TOPPED SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING ISOLATED TORNADOES APPEARS TO BE INCREASING OVER THE AREA AND A WW MAY BE NEEDED BY 22Z. LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS THAT THE AIRMASS WAS SLOWLY RECOVERING OVER WRN KY AND FAR SRN IL WITH MUCAPES AROUND 500 J/KG. A SFC LOW WAS LOCATED OVER FAR SRN IL JUST NW OF PAH AND WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ENEWD AHEAD OF A VORT MAX MOVING OUT OF SERN MO. LOW LEVEL FLOW WAS RESPONDING TO THE APPROACHING VORT MAX WITH INCREASING SLY WINDS NOTED AT BOTH THE PADUCAH AND BOWLING GREEN VWP/S. LOW LEVEL SHEAR WAS INCREASING AS A RESULT...WITH THE BOWLING GREEN VWP INDICATING AROUND 150 J/KG OF 0-1 KM SRH. LOW-TOPPED CONVECTION WAS BEGINNING TO DEVELOP ALONG A BOUNDARY EXTENDING ENEWD FROM THE SFC LOW ALONG THE OHIO RIVER WHERE THE NRN EDGE OF THE INSTABILITY AXIS EXISTED. RECENT TRENDS IN VIS SAT DATA SUGGESTS THAT HEATING WILL LIKELY INCREASE OVER THE AREA IN THE NEXT 1-2 HRS. IF THIS DOES OCCUR...INSTABILITY WOULD LIKEWISE INCREASE AND A TORNADO WW MAY BE NEEDED. ..CROSBIE.. 05/10/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LMK...PAH... 38298751 37908841 37638883 37228882 36998815 37188744 37538683 38008664 38238659 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Fri May 12 01:15:36 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Thu, 11 May 2006 21:15:36 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 120114 SWOMCD SPC MCD 120113 VAZ000-NCZ000-120215- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0848 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0813 PM CDT THU MAY 11 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...FAR SERN VA INTO ERN MD CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 342... VALID 120113Z - 120215Z POTENTIAL FOR MAINLY ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH 02Z ACROSS FAR SERN VA AND ERN MD. WW 342 WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 02Z. AS OF 0100Z...RADAR IMAGERY INDICATED A WAVY LINE OF TSTMS FROM E OF NHK TO 20 SW OF ORF MOVING NEWD AT 20-30 KTS. 00Z WAL SOUNDING INDICATES THAT STORMS ARE LIKELY MOVING INTO A REGION OF STRONGER SURFACE-BASED STABILITY OWING TO MARINE INFLUENCES...THOUGH SOME WEAK ELEVATED BUOYANCY STILL EXISTS /I.E. 700-800 J/KG OF MUCAPE/. GIVEN MODESTLY STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR OBSERVED ON THIS SOUNDING...POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR BOWING OR MARGINAL SUPERCELL STRUCTURES EMBEDDED WITHIN LARGER CONVECTIVE LINE THROUGH 02Z. LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT WITH THE MOST INTENSE STORMS. ..MEAD.. 05/12/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX... 37817638 37897601 37737547 36167565 36017639 36217695 36897654 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Fri May 12 01:46:53 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Thu, 11 May 2006 21:46:53 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 120145 SWOMCD SPC MCD 120145 NJZ000-PAZ000-DEZ000-MDZ000-120245- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0849 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0845 PM CDT THU MAY 11 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN MD/SERN PA PERHAPS INTO DE AND SWRN NJ CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 343... VALID 120145Z - 120245Z THREAT OF MAINLY ISOLATED STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS ERN PORTIONS OF WW 343 PERHAPS INTO PORTIONS OF DE AND FAR SWRN NJ. WW 343 WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 03Z. AS OF 0140Z...RADAR IMAGERY INDICATED A WEAKENING CONVECTIVE LINE FROM 20 E OF CXY TO 20 W OF WAL WITH INDIVIDUAL CELL MOTIONS NEWD AT 25-30 KTS. AS MENTIONED IN PREVIOUS MESOSCALE DISCUSSION /848/ IT APPEARS THAT THIS CONVECTION IS ENCOUNTERING AN INCREASINGLY MORE STABLE ENVIRONMENT AS IT APPROACHES THE COAST. MODESTLY STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR WILL MAINTAIN AT LEAST A MARGINAL THREAT OF LOCALLY STRONG WIND GUSTS WITH THE MORE INTENSE STORMS...THOUGH IT APPEARS OVERALL SEVERE POTENTIAL SHOULD CONTINUE TO DECREASE THROUGH 03Z. ..MEAD.. 05/12/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...PHI...AKQ...CTP...LWX... 40077645 40347603 40157531 38987511 38357546 38457598 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Sat May 13 18:40:50 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Sat, 13 May 2006 14:40:50 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 131837 SWOMCD SPC MCD 131837 GAZ000-FLZ000-ALZ000-MSZ000-132030- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0850 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0137 PM CDT SAT MAY 13 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS SWRN GA...SRN/WRN AL...NRN FL PANHANDLE...NRN/ERN MS. CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 131837Z - 132030Z CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL WILL INCREASE ACROSS DISCUSSION AREA THROUGH 21Z. SOME SUPERCELLS ARE POSSIBLE...PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING GUSTS. AREA WILL BE MONITORED FOR POSSIBLE WW. SFC MESOANALYSIS...VIS SATELLITE TRENDS AND REFLECTIVITY ANIMATIONS ALL SHOW OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM MORNING CONVECTIVE COMPLEX....AS OF 18Z...MOVING SWD ABOUT 10 KT ACROSS LINE FROM EARLY COUNTY GA TO NRN COVINGTON COUNTY AL. BOUNDARY HAS BECOME QUASISTATIONARY FARTHER WNWWD FROM BUTLER COUNTY AL TO NEAR MEI AND DIFFUSE NNWWD BETWEEN TUP-GWO. IT SHOULD STALL WITHIN NEXT COUPLE HOURS NEAR NRN BORDER OF FL PANHANDLE WITH SWRN GA. THOUGH CINH IS WEAKENING ON BOTH SIDES...BOUNDARY ITSELF WILL FOCUS MAXIMIZED CONVERGENCE...LOW LEVEL SHEAR AND SFC VORTICITY...AND SHOULD AID CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT/PROPAGATION THROUGH MID-AFTERNOON. AIR MASS NW OF OUTFLOW POOL ACROSS NRN MS IS DESTABILIZING RAPIDLY ALSO BASED ON ACARS/RUC SOUNDINGS AND WILL SUPPORT STRONG-SEVERE TSTMS. MODIFIED RAOBS AS WELL AS WRF AND RUC SOUNDINGS SUGGEST CINH VANISHES WITH SFC TEMPS LOW 80S F...AS ARE BEGINNING TO OCCUR ON SRN/WARM SIDE OF BOUNDARY...AND DEW POINTS MID-UPPER 50S...WHICH CHARACTERIZE COOL NRN SIDE. LAPSE RATES STEEPEN WITH WWD EXTENT...SUPPORTING POTENTIAL MLCAPES 1500 J/KG ACROSS NRN/ERN MS TO 500 J/KG OR LESS SWRN GA/NRN FL PANHANDLE. RELATIVELY DRY SUBCLOUD LAYER OVER WARM SECTOR LIMITS CAPE...BUT ALSO SUPPORT MAINTAINING INTENSITY OF HAIL/GUSTS FROM DOWNDRAFT ORIGINS DOWN TO SFC. THOUGH SFC FLOW IS WEAK...DEEPER VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES FAVOR SUPERCELLS AND BOWS...WITH ROUGHLY 50 KT 0-6 KM SHEAR. ..EDWARDS.. 05/13/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...TAE...BMX...MOB...MEG...JAN... 30928607 31658801 32908958 34189074 34969002 34748839 33748813 32628770 31548590 31368488 31278457 30868437 30578440 30558490 30808574  From mcd at goshenarc.org Sat May 13 21:41:41 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Sat, 13 May 2006 17:41:41 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 132140 SWOMCD SPC MCD 132139 TXZ000-132315- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0851 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0439 PM CDT SAT MAY 13 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...TX S PLAINS INTO W-CNTRL AND SWRN TX CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 132139Z - 132315Z POTENTIAL FOR MAINLY LOCALLY STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL EXIST WITH DEVELOPING STORMS INTO THIS EVENING. A WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED. AS OF 2125Z...REGIONAL RADAR AND VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED TOWERING CUMULUS AND EARLY TSTM DEVELOPMENT ALONG A COUPLE OF SURFACE BOUNDARIES FROM S OF LBB TO W OF ABI AND THEN SWWD TO FST. AMBIENT AIR MASS HAS WARMED THROUGH THE 90S TO AROUND 100 F WHICH IS RESULTING A DEEP AND WELL-MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER /I.E. UP TO 650 MB PER RUC PROXIMITY SOUNDINGS/. MOREOVER...CORRESPONDING RUC HODOGRAPHS AND CURRENT JAYTON PROFILER INDICATE LOW-LEVEL SLY WINDS VEERING TO NWLY IN THE MID TO UPPER TROPOSPHERE WITH 35-40 KTS OF EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR. DESPITE THE ABSENCE OF AN APPRECIABLE LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT...STRONG DIABATIC HEATING COUPLED WITH CONVERGENCE ALONG EXISTING LOW-LEVEL BOUNDARIES SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT AN INCREASE IN TSTM DEVELOPMENT INTO THIS EVENING. DAMAGING WINDS APPEAR TO BE THE PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT OWING TO STRONG EVAPORATIVE COOLING POTENTIAL /I.E. DCAPES AOA 1500 J/KG/. SOME HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS. ..MEAD.. 05/13/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...SJT...LUB...MAF... 30520238 31130254 32300054 32900149 33410137 33550019 32899942 32109932 31350014 30310190 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Sat May 13 22:35:30 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Sat, 13 May 2006 18:35:30 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 132234 SWOMCD SPC MCD 132233 ALZ000-TNZ000-MSZ000-140000- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0852 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0533 PM CDT SAT MAY 13 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...NERN MS INTO NRN AND CNTRL AL CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 132233Z - 140000Z SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL APPEARS TO BE INCREASING ACROSS DISCUSSION AREA AND CONVECTIVE TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED FOR A WW. COLUMBUS AFB MS RADAR INDICATES THAT A TSTMS HAVE RECENTLY DEVELOPED OVER UNION COUNTY IN NERN MS AND LINCOLN COUNTY INTO SRN MIDDLE TN...PRESUMABLY ALONG A NWD-RETREATING BOUNDARY /PER VISIBLE SATELLITE/. SHORT TERM MODEL GUIDANCE AND WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SUGGEST THAT THIS CONVECTION IS DEVELOPING WITHIN EXIT REGION OF 70-80 KT MID-LEVEL JET STREAK DIGGING SEWD THROUGH THE TN VALLEY INTO CNTRL GULF STATES. RUC FORECAST SOUNDINGS WOULD INDICATE THAT AIR MASS IS NOT PARTICULARLY UNSTABLE OWING TO THE MARGINAL BOUNDARY-LAYER MOISTURE...THOUGH SBCAPES STILL REMAIN AROUND 1000 J/KG. HOWEVER...VERTICAL SHEAR IS QUITE STRONG WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THIS JET STREAK /REF. OKOLONA MS PROFILER/ WITH AROUND 60 KTS OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR. SHOULD STORMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND BECOME SUSTAINED...THE INCREASED FORCING FOR ASCENT AND STRENGTHENING VERTICAL SHEAR WILL SUPPORT POTENTIAL FOR A FORWARD PROPAGATING MCS /WITH EMBEDDED BOWS AND SUPERCELLS/ CAPABLE OF PRIMARILY DAMAGING WINDS. THIS THREAT WOULD LIKELY SPREAD SEWD INTO CNTRL AL TONIGHT. ..MEAD.. 05/13/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...OHX...BMX...HUN...MEG...JAN... 34668919 35098883 35198704 34838610 33608601 33188709 33388851 34018923 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Sat May 13 23:58:57 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Sat, 13 May 2006 19:58:57 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 132357 SWOMCD SPC MCD 132357 SCZ000-GAZ000-NCZ000-TNZ000-140100- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0853 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0657 PM CDT SAT MAY 13 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...SERN TN INTO NRN GA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 132357Z - 140100Z POTENTIAL FOR MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL AND LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS APPEARS TO BE INCREASING ACROSS DISCUSSION AREA AND AN ADDITIONAL WW MAY BE NECESSARY. TSTMS CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY THIS EVENING OVER SRN MIDDLE TN FROM LINCOLN EWD TO MARION COUNTY. THESE STORMS ARE MOVING LEFT OF THE MEAN WIND AND MAY NOT TRULY BE ROOTED IN BOUNDARY-LAYER. GIVEN INCREASE IN FORCING FOR ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH UPSTREAM JET STREAK DIVING SEWD THROUGH THE WRN TN VALLEY...AND INCREASING WAA TONIGHT ALONG SWLY LLJ...THIS ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. ..MEAD.. 05/13/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...GSP...MRX...FFC...OHX... 35318562 35598481 35328362 34668323 34158367 33808413 33788472 33948536 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Sun May 14 00:53:33 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Sat, 13 May 2006 20:53:33 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 140052 SWOMCD SPC MCD 140051 GAZ000-ALZ000-140145- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0854 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0751 PM CDT SAT MAY 13 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...W-CNTRL GA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 140051Z - 140145Z POTENTIAL FOR MAINLY SEVERE HAIL IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE E OF WW 344 INTO W-CNTRL GA AFTER 0130-0200Z. CONVECTIVE TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE WW. LATEST MESOANALYSIS INDICATED REMNANT OUTFLOW BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM NERN MS /E OF TUP/ SEWD THROUGH S-CNTRL AL INTO THE FL PNHDL. WAA/ISENTROPIC ASCENT OVER THIS BOUNDARY...DRIVEN BY INTENSIFYING WSWLY LLJ FROM THE LOWER MS VALLEY INTO AL...IS LIKELY SUPPORTING ONGOING TSTMS SE OF BHM. INSPECTION OF 14/00Z BHM SOUNDING SUGGESTS THAT THESE STORMS ARE LIKELY BASED AT 850 MB WHERE MUCAPES REMAIN AROUND 1500 J/KG. POSSIBLY MORE IMPORTANTLY IS THE RATHER STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR THROUGH THE CLOUD BEARING LAYER. FURTHER STRENGTHENING OF WLY LLJ IS FORECAST OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS IN RESPONSE TO MID-LEVEL JET STREAK DIVING SEWD THROUGH THE REGION. INFLUX OF POTENTIALLY MORE UNSTABLE AIR MASS FROM THE SW ATOP OUTFLOW BOUNDARY SHOULD MAINTAIN ONGOING STORMS...WITH REDEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE ON UPSHEAR PART OF COMPLEX. SEVERE HAIL WILL LIKELY BE THE PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT...UNLESS STORMS CAN ORGANIZE A COLD POOL...WHICH WOULD ENHANCE THE RISK OF DAMAGING WINDS. ..MEAD.. 05/14/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...FFC...BMX... 33588518 33678468 33578389 32948347 32148395 32148467 32478498 32768510 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Sun May 14 02:39:23 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Sat, 13 May 2006 22:39:23 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 140237 SWOMCD SPC MCD 140237 TXZ000-OKZ000-140400- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0855 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0937 PM CDT SAT MAY 13 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...NRN TX AND SRN OK CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 140237Z - 140400Z POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF MAINLY LARGE HAIL APPEARS TO BE INCREASING ACROSS DISCUSSION AREA. STORM INITIATION IS ANTICIPATED BETWEEN 03 AND 04Z. A WW WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED. 02Z MESOANALYSIS INDICATED QUASI-STATIONARY OR WEAK COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY FROM SURFACE LOW N OF MAF ENEWD THROUGH NRN TX AND THEN INTO CNTRL OR SRN AR. AS MENTIONED IN 01Z CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK...14/00Z FTW SOUNDING INDICATED A RATHER STRONG CAP IN PLACE ACROSS WARM SECTOR. VWP TRENDS FROM DYESS AFB INDICATE THAT LLJ HAS INTENSIFIED TO 30-40 KTS OVER THE PAST HOUR...WHICH IS LIKELY ENHANCING CONVERGENCE ALONG FRONTAL ZONE OVER NWRN TX...AND EFFECTIVELY WEAKENING CAP. LATEST SHORT-TERM RUC GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THE INITIATION OF DEEP CONVECTION WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY LIKELY BETWEEN 14/03-04Z ALONG OR SLIGHTLY N OF SURFACE BOUNDARY ALONG THE RED RIVER. THE PRESENCE OF STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES / 8-8.5 C/KM / AND A POTENTIALLY MODERATELY TO STRONGLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS / MUCAPES OF 2000-3000 J/KG / SHOULD SUPPORT RAPID STORM DEVELOPMENT WITH SUFFICIENT DEEP-LAYER VERTICAL SHEAR FOR SUPERCELLS. ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL LIKELY BE SLIGHTLY ELEVATED WITH THE GREATEST THREAT BEING FROM LARGE HAIL. HOWEVER...POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS AND PERHAPS A BRIEF TORNADO OR TWO WITH ANY STORMS THAT CAN BECOME ROOTED IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER. ..MEAD.. 05/14/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...SHV...TSA...FWD...OUN...SJT...LUB... 33080000 33930022 34359962 34489862 34289716 34159591 33679526 33059561 32659687 32839911 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Sun May 14 03:47:36 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Sat, 13 May 2006 23:47:36 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 140346 SWOMCD SPC MCD 140345 GAZ000-140445- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0856 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1045 PM CDT SAT MAY 13 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL INTO SWRN GA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 140345Z - 140445Z POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED SEVERE HAIL AND LOCALLY STRONG WIND GUSTS SHOULD TEND TO DIMINISH PRIOR TO 0430Z. AS OF 0340Z...RADAR IMAGERY SHOWED A FAIRLY LONG-LIVED SUPERCELL MOVING SEWD THROUGH WEBSTER AND SUMTER COUNTIES IN SWRN GA WITH ADDITIONAL STRONG TO POTENTIALLY SEVERE STORMS EXTENDING NEWD INTO TAYLOR COUNTY. WHILE VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES REMAIN QUITE STRONG AND SUPPORTIVE OF A CONTINUING SEVERE WEATHER THREAT...RUC OBJECTIVE FIELDS SUGGEST THAT THESE STORMS ARE MOVING S OF ERN BRANCH OF WSWLY LLJ...AND INTO A PROGRESSIVELY MORE STABLE ENVIRONMENT. THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED SEVERE HAIL AND LOCALLY STRONG WINDS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH 0400-0430Z...WITH STORMS LIKELY WEAKENING THEREAFTER. ..MEAD.. 05/14/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...FFC...TAE... 32148469 32678429 32828313 31948274 31668454 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Sun May 14 04:23:30 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Sun, 14 May 2006 00:23:30 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 140422 SWOMCD SPC MCD 140421 SCZ000-GAZ000-NCZ000-TNZ000-ALZ000-140515- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0857 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1121 PM CDT SAT MAY 13 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...NRN PORTIONS OF AL/GA...SRN MIDDLE AND SERN TN INTO THE FAR WRN CAROLINAS CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 344...345... VALID 140421Z - 140515Z MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE WITH STRONGEST STORMS BEYOND 05Z. THIS THREAT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN ISOLATED AND AN ADDITIONAL WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED. AS OF 0410Z...REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY SHOWED CLUSTERS OF TSTMS FROM JACKSON AND CHEROKEE COUNTIES IN NERN AL NEWD INTO POLK COUNTY IN SERN TN. MORE RECENT STORM DEVELOPMENT HAS ALSO OCCURRED FARTHER TO THE W NEAR SURFACE COLD FRONT OVER PRENTISS AND TISHOMINGO COUNTIES IN FAR NERN MS. DEEP-LAYER FORCING FOR ASCENT WITHIN LEFT EXIT REGION OF 70-80 KT MID-LEVEL JET STREAK DIVING SEWD THROUGH THE WRN TN VALLEY...IN CONJUCTION WITH LOWER LEVEL ISENTROPIC ASCENT ALONG WSWLY LLJ...HAVE LARGELY DRIVEN CONVECTION ACROSS WW/S 344 AND 345 TONIGHT. REGIONAL VWPS AND PROFILERS INDICATE THAT VERTICAL SHEAR REMAINS QUITE STRONG AHEAD OF COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE TN VALLEY. HOWEVER...RUC OBJECTIVE FIELDS SUGGEST THAT PRE-FRONTAL AIR MASS IS SLOWLY STABILIZING. EXPECT TSTMS TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT ALONG COLD FRONT AS WELL AS WITHIN PRE-FRONTAL AIR MASS WHERE ISENTROPIC ASCENT OVER SURFACE OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES REMAINS LOCALLY ENHANCED. THE STRONG FORCING FOR ASCENT AND VERTICAL SHEAR WILL MAINTAIN A THREAT OF A FEW SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF MAINLY SEVERE HAIL. A MORE ORGANIZED SEVERE THREAT WILL LIKELY BE LIMITED BY THE WEAKENING INSTABILITY. ..MEAD.. 05/14/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...GSP...MRX...FFC...OHX...BMX...HUN...MEG... 35588811 35748712 35748310 34128254 33828514 33238525 33768790 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Sun May 14 07:29:03 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Sun, 14 May 2006 03:29:03 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 140727 SWOMCD SPC MCD 140727 MSZ000-LAZ000-ARZ000-TXZ000-OKZ000-140900- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0858 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0227 AM CDT SUN MAY 14 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF NRN/ERN TX INTO LA...CNTRL/SRN MS CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 346...347... VALID 140727Z - 140900Z CONTINUE WWS 346 AND 347. ADDITIONAL WWS SOUTH/EASTWARD ACROSS LOUISIANA INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY/CENTRAL GULF COAST STATES ARE NOT ANTICIPATED. ONGOING SCATTERED VIGOROUS CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT APPEARS TO HAVE BEEN INITIATED BY LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION/WEAKENING MID-LEVEL INHIBITION ASSOCIATED WITH IMPULSE EMBEDDED WITHIN BELT OF CYCLONIC FLOW...SOUTH OF UPPER MIDWEST UPPER LOW. THIS FORCING WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD EASTWARD ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THROUGH DAYBREAK...PERHAPS FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER IMPULSE EMANATING FROM THE NORTH CENTRAL ROCKIES. FORCING WITH UPSTREAM SYSTEM COULD SUPPORT ADDITIONAL CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT NEAR LOW-LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE EXTENDING ACROSS NORTHERN TEXAS INTO NORTHERN LOUISIANA...BUT STORMS SEEM LIKELY TO REMAIN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED IN NATURE DUE TO LACK OF MORE FOCUSED LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE. STILL...FAVORABLY SHEARED CLOUD BEARING LAYER WITH CAPE OF 1000 TO 2000 J/KG ABOVE FRONTAL INVERSION WILL REMAIN SUPPORTIVE OF LARGE HAIL IN STRONGER CELLS. HAIL THREAT IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH WITH STORMS DEVELOPING EAST OF STEEPER MID- LEVEL LAPSE RATE ENVIRONMENT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. ..KERR.. 05/14/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...JAN...LIX...LZK...LCH...SHV...FWD...OUN... 33489846 33719777 33799555 33509387 33409298 33279082 32638945 30888995 30379129 31049285 31629410 32069632 32339756 32949842 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Sun May 14 09:02:12 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Sun, 14 May 2006 05:02:12 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 140900 SWOMCD SPC MCD 140900 SCZ000-GAZ000-141030- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0859 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0400 AM CDT SUN MAY 14 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...NE GA INTO WRN SC CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 140900Z - 141030Z A WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED...BUT TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED. RECENT VIGOROUS CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT NORTH/EAST OF GAINESVILLE GA IS OCCURRING IN EXIT REGION OF 70 KT CYCLONIC JET PROGRESSING AROUND BASE OF UPPER MIDWEST UPPER LOW. FORCING HAS ENHANCED ISENTROPIC ASCENT IN WARM FRONTAL ZONE...WHERE NARROW TONGUE OF BETTER MOISTURE ADVECTING OUT OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY HAS CONTRIBUTED TO MOST UNSTABLE CAPE AROUND 1000 J/KG. SHEAR PROFILES IN CLOUD BEARING LAYER...BASED ABOVE FRONTAL INVERSION...ARE SUPPORTIVE OF UPDRAFT ROTATION...WHICH IS CONTRIBUTING TO LARGE HAIL POTENTIAL. HOWEVER...MODELS SUGGEST AS UPSTREAM COLD FRONT ADVANCES INTO THE NORTHERN GULF STATES NEXT FEW HOURS...MOISTURE RETURN WILL BECOME CUT-OFF. THIS IS EXPECTED TO LIMIT DESTABILIZATION AS STRONGER MID/UPPER FORCING SHIFTS EASTWARD ACROSS WESTERN INTO CENTRAL SOUTH CAROLINA THROUGH 11-12Z...AND HAIL POTENTIAL SEEMS LIKELY TO DIMINISH. ..KERR.. 05/14/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...CAE...GSP...FFC... 34818325 34908262 34798165 34168108 33628115 33488177 33838251 34468399 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Sun May 14 10:25:55 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Sun, 14 May 2006 06:25:55 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 141024 SWOMCD SPC MCD 141023 LAZ000-TXZ000-141130- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0860 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0523 AM CDT SUN MAY 14 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTHEAST TX CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 346...347... VALID 141023Z - 141130Z CONVECTIVE TRENDS ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF INCREASING SEVERE POTENTIAL BY MID MORNING. WWS 346 AND 347 MAY BE REPLACED WITH NEW WW BY 11Z. SOUTH OF STALLED FRONTAL ZONE...BOUNDARY LAYER IS VERY MOIST WITH SURFACE DEW POINTS NEAR 70F. BENEATH STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES...THIS IS CONTRIBUTING TO RATHER LARGE CAPE...ON THE ORDER OF 2000 TO 3000 J/KG. STRONG INHIBITION CONTINUES TO SUPPRESS CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT...HOWEVER...AND CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY EXISTS CONCERNING FORCING TO WEAKEN INHIBITION. POSSIBLE GRAVITY WAVE ASSOCIATED WITH WEAKENING CONVECTION NEAR WACO MAY BE IN PROCESS OF WEAKENING CAP. AND...MODELS SUGGEST A GRADUAL MID-LEVEL COOLING ASSOCIATED WITH IMPULSE SHIFTING INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY COULD WEAKEN INHIBITION ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS INTO UPPER TEXAS COASTAL AREAS DURING THE 12-15Z TIME FRAME. IF THIS OCCURS...SURFACE OR NEAR SURFACE BASED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WOULD LIKELY BE ACCOMPANIED BY INCREASING RISK FOR LARGE HAIL. THOUGH FLOW FIELDS/SHEAR PROFILES ARE NOT PARTICULARLY STRONG...LOW HUMIDITIES IN THE LOWER/MID TROPOSPHERE PROVIDE POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING DOWNBURSTS AND POSSIBLE SURFACE COLD POOL EVOLUTION. ..KERR.. 05/14/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LCH...SHV...HGX...FWD...EWX... 31459717 31729568 30869438 29879333 29239474 29149570 29359671 29959722 30449737 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Sun May 14 11:30:02 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Sun, 14 May 2006 07:30:02 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 140900 SWOMCD SPC MCD 140900 SCZ000-GAZ000-141030- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0859 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0400 AM CDT SUN MAY 14 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...NE GA INTO WRN SC CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 140900Z - 141030Z A WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED...BUT TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED. RECENT VIGOROUS CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT NORTH/EAST OF GAINESVILLE GA IS OCCURRING IN EXIT REGION OF 70 KT CYCLONIC JET PROGRESSING AROUND BASE OF UPPER MIDWEST UPPER LOW. FORCING HAS ENHANCED ISENTROPIC ASCENT IN WARM FRONTAL ZONE...WHERE NARROW TONGUE OF BETTER MOISTURE ADVECTING OUT OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY HAS CONTRIBUTED TO MOST UNSTABLE CAPE AROUND 1000 J/KG. SHEAR PROFILES IN CLOUD BEARING LAYER...BASED ABOVE FRONTAL INVERSION...ARE SUPPORTIVE OF UPDRAFT ROTATION...WHICH IS CONTRIBUTING TO LARGE HAIL POTENTIAL. HOWEVER...MODELS SUGGEST AS UPSTREAM COLD FRONT ADVANCES INTO THE NORTHERN GULF STATES NEXT FEW HOURS...MOISTURE RETURN WILL BECOME CUT-OFF. THIS IS EXPECTED TO LIMIT DESTABILIZATION AS STRONGER MID/UPPER FORCING SHIFTS EASTWARD ACROSS WESTERN INTO CENTRAL SOUTH CAROLINA THROUGH 11-12Z...AND HAIL POTENTIAL SEEMS LIKELY TO DIMINISH. ..KERR.. 05/14/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...CAE...GSP...FFC... 34818325 34908262 34798165 34168108 33628115 33488177 33838251 34468399  From mcd at goshenarc.org Sun May 14 12:12:20 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Sun, 14 May 2006 08:12:20 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 141024 SWOMCD SPC MCD 141023 LAZ000-TXZ000-141130- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0860 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0523 AM CDT SUN MAY 14 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTHEAST TX CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 346...347... VALID 141023Z - 141130Z CONVECTIVE TRENDS ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF INCREASING SEVERE POTENTIAL BY MID MORNING. WWS 346 AND 347 MAY BE REPLACED WITH NEW WW BY 11Z. SOUTH OF STALLED FRONTAL ZONE...BOUNDARY LAYER IS VERY MOIST WITH SURFACE DEW POINTS NEAR 70F. BENEATH STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES...THIS IS CONTRIBUTING TO RATHER LARGE CAPE...ON THE ORDER OF 2000 TO 3000 J/KG. STRONG INHIBITION CONTINUES TO SUPPRESS CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT...HOWEVER...AND CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY EXISTS CONCERNING FORCING TO WEAKEN INHIBITION. POSSIBLE GRAVITY WAVE ASSOCIATED WITH WEAKENING CONVECTION NEAR WACO MAY BE IN PROCESS OF WEAKENING CAP. AND...MODELS SUGGEST A GRADUAL MID-LEVEL COOLING ASSOCIATED WITH IMPULSE SHIFTING INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY COULD WEAKEN INHIBITION ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS INTO UPPER TEXAS COASTAL AREAS DURING THE 12-15Z TIME FRAME. IF THIS OCCURS...SURFACE OR NEAR SURFACE BASED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WOULD LIKELY BE ACCOMPANIED BY INCREASING RISK FOR LARGE HAIL. THOUGH FLOW FIELDS/SHEAR PROFILES ARE NOT PARTICULARLY STRONG...LOW HUMIDITIES IN THE LOWER/MID TROPOSPHERE PROVIDE POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING DOWNBURSTS AND POSSIBLE SURFACE COLD POOL EVOLUTION. ..KERR.. 05/14/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LCH...SHV...HGX...FWD...EWX... 31459717 31729568 30869438 29879333 29239474 29149570 29359671 29959722 30449737  From mcd at goshenarc.org Sun May 14 14:05:46 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Sun, 14 May 2006 10:05:46 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 141404 SWOMCD SPC MCD 141404 MSZ000-LAZ000-TXZ000-141530- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0861 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0904 AM CDT SUN MAY 14 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS CENTRAL/ERN TX...LA...SRN/WRN MS. CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 348... VALID 141404Z - 141530Z REPLACEMENT WW IS LIKELY SHORTLY. MAIN SEVERE EMPHASIS NEXT 2-3 HOURS MAY BE BETWEEN POE-LCH...AS COLD POOL ASSOCIATED WITH ANGELINA/JASPER COUNTY BOW ECHO FORCES ASCENT IN INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS. MCS WITH HISTORY OF PRODUCING HAIL TO 1.75 INCH DIAMETER SHOULD MOVE SEWD OUT OF WW AND TOWARD GULF COAST OF SWRN LA/EXTREME SE TX THROUGH 19Z. WIND DAMAGE POTENTIAL SHOULD INCREASE AS FOREGOING SFC AIR MASS HEATS...MIXES...DESTABILIZES AND COUPLES TO WHAT IS NOW ELEVATED INFLOW LAYER. ACTIVITY ALSO MAY BACKBUILD ACROSS CENTRAL/SE TX WHERE RICHER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND STEEP LAPSE RATES ARE PRESENT...AND STRONG SFC HEATING WILL OCCUR TO DESTABILIZE BOUNDARY LAYER. SFC MESOANALYSIS SHOWS UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S SFC DEW POINTS S AND SE OF CENTRAL TX BAROCLINIC ZONE...COVERING MOST OF S-CENTRAL/SE TX. NRN EDGE OF STRONG CAPPING EVIDENT IN CRP RAOB IS INDEFINITE BUT MAY LIMIT CONVECTIVE COVERAGE FOR A FEW MORE HOURS PENDING MORE INTENSE HEATING AND/OR FORCING ALONG OUTFLOW FROM SE TX ACTIVITY. SVR POTENTIAL SHOULD BECOME MORE MRGL WITH EWD EXTENT ACROSS LA/MS GULF COASTAL PLAIN AS MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES DIMINISH...WITH LESS FAVORABLE LOW LEVEL AIR MASS ABOVE SFC AS WELL. ALTHOUGH SFC MOIST ADVECTION IS EVIDENT WITH WEAK SWLY FLOW AND MID/UPPER 60S DEW POINTS UPSTREAM...925 AND 850 MB ANALYSES INDICATE PRONOUNCED DRYING ABOVE. HEATING/MIXING ACROSS THIS REGION MAY STEEPEN BOUNDARY LAYER LAPSE RATES AND HELP MAINTAIN GUSTS/HAIL TO SFC IN MOST INTENSE CELLS. ..EDWARDS.. 05/14/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MOB...JAN...LIX...LCH...SHV...HGX...FWD...EWX... 32029691 32189546 31639382 32509253 32788997 30748883 29969041 29479184 29769321 29279484 29739902 31899778 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Sun May 14 16:07:16 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Sun, 14 May 2006 12:07:16 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 141605 SWOMCD SPC MCD 141605 TXZ000-141900- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0862 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1105 AM CDT SUN MAY 14 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS CENTRAL/SE TX CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL VALID 141605Z - 141900Z RAIN RATES 2-3 INCHES/HOUR ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FROM ONGOING ACTIVITY OVER LIMESTONE/FREESTONE COUNTIES AS IT CONTINUES TO MERGE THEN SHIFTS SWD/SEWD TOWARD CLL REGION...AND ALSO...FROM ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY WSWWD TOWARD TPL/AUS AREA. CONVECTIVE COVERAGE SHOULD BECOME MORE DENSE ACROSS MUCH OF DISCUSSION AREA. MERGING AND TRAINING OF CORES WILL PROLONG HEAVY RAIN RATES IN SOME LOCALES...ENHANCING THIS HAZARD. REF WW 349 AND RELATED MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS FOR SVR THREAT OVER THIS REGION. IN ADDITION TO IMPACT ON SVR POTENTIAL...LARGE BUOYANCY RESULTING FROM STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES AND SFC HEATING OF MOIST INFLOW SECTOR WILL AID PRECIP PRODUCTION...AMIDST FAVORABLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONTENT. SFC DEW POINTS AOA 70 F ARE ANALYZED IN PROSPECTIVE INFLOW SECTOR ACROSS CENTRAL/SE TX...AND SHOULD NOT MIX AWAY GIVEN STRONG CAPPING EVIDENT FARTHER S IN CRP RAOB. 12Z UPPER AIR ANALYSES SHOW MOISTURE ABOVE SFC MAXIMIZED IN DRT-LFK CORRIDOR...WITH DEW POINTS 17-20 DEG C AT 925 MB...AND 13-15 DEC G AT 850 MB. GPS-PW DATA AND RUC SOUNDINGS INDICATE PW IN 1.25-1.5 INCH RANGE...LOCALLY SLIGHTLY HIGHER. OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM MCS OVER LOWER SABINE RIVER AREA SHOULD STALL PARALLEL TO AND JUST E OF I-45 FROM SAN JACINTO COUNTY NWD...ASSOCIATED INSTABILITY GRADIENT PROVIDING BOTH A FOCUS AND ERN BOUND FOR GREATEST RAINFALL POTENTIAL. ..EDWARDS.. 05/14/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...HGX...FWD...EWX... 29979784 29919820 30489830 30839824 31389814 31389703 31769679 31859637 31749606 31479582 30949558 30669538 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Sun May 14 16:22:45 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Sun, 14 May 2006 12:22:45 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 141621 SWOMCD SPC MCD 141620 NCZ000-VAZ000-SCZ000-WVZ000-TNZ000-141815- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0863 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1120 AM CDT SUN MAY 14 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS VA...NC...NRN SC...SERN WV. CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 141620Z - 141815Z SEVERE POTENTIAL IS EXPECTED TO BECOME LESS ISOLATED AND BETTER ORGANIZED THROUGH AT LEAST 20Z. SEVERE TSTM WW WILL BE ISSUED SHORTLY FOR WESTERN PORTION OF THIS AREA. WW SUBSEQUENTLY MAY BE REQUIRED FOR SOME PORTION OF THIS REGION FARTHER E AS WELL. 16Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS DIFFERENTIAL HEATING BOUNDARY -- ASSOCIATED WITH BAND OF WAA RELATED CONVECTION NOW MOVING NEWD ACROSS ERN VA/EXTREME NERN NC -- ANALYZED FROM SRN PAMLICO SOUND WNWWD ACROSS WAKE COUNTY TO VICINITY DAN. THIS BOUNDARY SHOULD MIX/MOVE NEWD 15-25 KT WITH ASSOCIATED DESTABILIZATION SPREADING INTO S-CENTRAL/SERN VA AND NERN NC. RELATIVELY STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES OF AROUND 7-8 DEG C/KM -- EVIDENT IN MORNING GSO RAOB -- ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AFFECTING WRN NC...WRN VA AND SERN WV...AND SHIFT NEWD ACROSS PORTIONS CENTRAL NC THROUGH CENTRAL VA. THIS WILL COMBINE WITH SFC HEATING TO FURTHER REDUCE CINH AND BOOST MLCAPES TO AROUND 1000 J/KG FROM W-CENTRAL VA SSWWD TO EXTREME N-CENTRAL SC. ALTHOUGH LAPSE RATES WEAKEN WITH EWD EXTENT...STRONGER SFC HEATING WILL CONTRIBUTE TO SIMILAR BUOYANCY OVER CENTRAL/SRN NC AND S-CENTRAL VA...SW OF BOUNDARY. FAVORABLE DEEP-LAYER VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES -- I.E., 40-50 KT 0-6 KM SHEAR INCREASING WITH SWD EXTENT BENEATH MIDLEVEL SPEED MAX...WILL SUPPORT SVR POTENTIAL. ..EDWARDS.. 05/14/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...LWX...RAH...ILM...RNK...RLX...CAE...GSP...MRX... 34028082 34458176 35458219 37648121 38327818 37417761 36057645 35067624 34067875 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Sun May 14 17:25:43 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Sun, 14 May 2006 13:25:43 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 141724 SWOMCD SPC MCD 141723 LAZ000-TXZ000-141930- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0864 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1223 PM CDT SUN MAY 14 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS S-CENTRAL/SWRN LA...S-CENTRAL/SE TX.L CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 349... VALID 141723Z - 141930Z BULK OF SEVERE POTENTIAL FCST TO SHIFT TO WRN PORTION WW WITH MUCH OF SABINE RIVER REGION EWD BEING SIGNIFICANTLY STABILIZED BY BOWING MCS THAT HAS CLEARED LCH REGION. ERN PORTION MCS WILL AFFECT MUCH OF VERMILION PARISH BEFORE MOVING OFFSHORE...WITH HAIL AND DAMAGING GUSTS STILL POSSIBLE. AT 17Z...OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WAS ANALYZED FROM CHAMBERS COUNTY NWWD ACROSS TRINITY BAY AND NRN HARRIS COUNTY...THEN NNWWD NEAR I-45. THIS FEATURE SHOULD CONTINUE TO MOVE SWWD AND MERGE WITH INITIALLY SEPARATE CONFLUENCE LINE...WHICH IS ANALYZED FROM GLS WNWWD ACROSS FT BEND/AUSTIN COUNTIES...TO NEAR WILLIAMSON/MILAM COUNTY LINE. COMBINED OUTFLOW/CONFLUENCE LINE OVER HOU AREA MAY FOCUS ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT AND/OR PROPAGATION OF ERN PORTION OF ANOTHER MCS EVIDENT AT 17Z BETWEEN LEON AND CORYELL COUNTIES. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD MOVE SWD AND SEWD INTO FAVORABLY MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS INVOF CONFLUENCE LINE...WITH POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE HAIL...WIND DAMAGE AND HEAVY RAINFALL. REF MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 862 FOR ASSOCIATED HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL. STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES TO NEAR 9 DEG C/KM AND 70S F SFC DEW POINTS WILL SUPPORT MLCAPES OVER 3000 J/KG IN MUCH OF CENTRAL TX...AHEAD OF THIS COMPLEX. NRN EXTENT OF STRONG CAPPING EVIDENT IN 12Z CRP RAOB SHOULD LIMIT POTENTIAL S OF WW FOR SEVERAL HOURS. HOWEVER...SWWD/WWD BACKBUILDING MAY OCCUR ACROSS SRN HILL COUNTRY TO UVA/DRT AREA. ..EDWARDS.. 05/14/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LIX...LCH...HGX...FWD...EWX...SJT... 29679340 29709291 29979262 30719236 31059194 30769164 29929128 29189164 29459339 28659512 28919530 28849554 29209586 28969628 29279668 29079690 29389722 29139759 29449812 29119840 29339896 30169909 30819902 31379730 31339556 30989492 30099441 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Sun May 14 18:10:25 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Sun, 14 May 2006 14:10:25 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 141808 SWOMCD SPC MCD 141808 TXZ000-NMZ000-142045- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0865 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0108 PM CDT SUN MAY 14 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS N-CENTRAL/NERN NM AND EXTREME WRN TX PANHANDLE. CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 141808Z - 142045Z TSTMS ARE DEVELOPING ACROSS PORTIONS NERN NM AND SHOULD INCREASE IN COVERAGE/INTENSITY THROUGH 20Z...WITH NET SWD MOTION ACROSS PORTIONS NERN AND E-CENTRAL NM. SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY MAY CLIP WRN PORTIONS HARTLEY/OLDHAM/DEAF SMITH COUNTIES IN TX PANHANDLE AS WELL. HAIL AND OCCASIONAL STRONG-SEVERE GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE. AREA WILL BE MONITORED FOR POSSIBLE WW. SEVERAL CB AND NUMEROUS TCU ARE EVIDENT FROM SERN UNION COUNTY NM WWD OVER PORTIONS RIO ARRIBA COUNTY...WHERE DIABATIC SFC HEATING OF HIGHER TERRAIN HAS QUICKLY REMOVED CINH. SFC ANALYSES INDICATE POSTFRONTAL FLOW VEERING WITH TIME TO MORE ELY COMPONENT...A TREND THAT SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH MID-LATE AFTERNOON. THIS WILL ENHANCE BOTH UPSLOPE LIFT AND STORM-RELATIVE INFLOW...AND ALSO ELONGATE 0-3 KM HODOGRAPHS. RESULTING BOUNDARY LAYER WIND PROFILES SUPPORT POTENTIAL FOR ROTATION IN STORMS RIGHTWARD-MOVING TOWARD S OR SSW...WITH 0-3 KM SRH UP TO ABOUT 250 J/KG. VERY STRONG DIRECTIONAL TURNING OF FLOW VECTORS WILL CONTINUE FROM SFC-MIDLEVELS...ENHANCING DEEP-LAYER BULK SHEAR ALSO. SFC TEMPS WARMING INTO 70S F AND DEW POINTS LOW-MID 40S F YIELD MLCAPES 500-1000 J/KG IN MODIFIED RUC SOUNDINGS OVER MUCH OF NERN NM. ..EDWARDS.. 05/14/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LUB...AMA...ABQ... 36070644 36300559 35950428 36040364 35960323 35540276 34570295 34420336 34450345 34450524 35030618 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Sun May 14 18:44:12 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Sun, 14 May 2006 14:44:12 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 141842 SWOMCD SPC MCD 141842 NCZ000-VAZ000-141945- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0866 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0142 PM CDT SUN MAY 14 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS CENTRAL/ERN NC. CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 350... VALID 141842Z - 141945Z MUCH OF NC PORTION WW IS BEING UPGRADED TO TORNADO WW 351...WHICH ALSO WILL INCLUDE ADDITIONAL TERRITORY EWD TOWARD COAST. VA/SC PORTIONS WILL REMAIN IN SVR TSTM WW 350. VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES ARE SLOWLY BECOMING MORE FAVORABLE FOR SUSTAINED SUPERCELLS AND TORNADO POTENTIAL OVER CENTRAL/ERN NC...PARTICULARLY INVOF DIFFERENTIAL HEATING BOUNDARY WHERE LOW LEVEL WINDS ARE BACKED AND HODOGRAPH SIZE IS MAXIMIZED. SFC MESOANALYSIS SHOWS THIS BOUNDARY FROM CENTRAL PORTION PAMLICO SOUND WNWWD TO NEAR DAN. PRONOUNCED PRESSURE FALL CENTER IS EVIDENT ALONG WRN PORTION OF THIS BOUNDARY SSE DAN....WHICH SHOULD HELP TO MAINTAIN FAVORABLE LOW LEVEL WIND PROFILES OVER REGION. MLCAPES ARE INCREASING TO OVER 1000 J/KG IN MORE STRONGLY HEATED AREAS OF ERN NC. ..EDWARDS.. 05/14/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...RAH...ILM...RNK...GSP... 36558054 36527590 35237558 34517749 34817970 34898078 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Sun May 14 19:24:25 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Sun, 14 May 2006 15:24:25 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 141922 SWOMCD SPC MCD 141922 GAZ000-ALZ000-142115- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0867 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0222 PM CDT SUN MAY 14 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...SRN AL/CNTRL GA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 141922Z - 142115Z TSTMS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ALONG CONVERGENCE BOUNDARY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. A MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIRMASS ALONG WITH MODERATE SPEED SHEAR WILL SUPPORT A THREAT FOR MAINLY LARGE HAIL. TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE WW IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. TSTMS APPEAR TO HAVE INITIATED ALONG AN APPARENT OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM EARLIER CONVECTION...GENERALLY IN AN AXIS BETWEEN MGM AND TOI ARCING NEWD TOWARDS MCN. AIR MASS HAS DESTABILIZED TO THE S OF THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY...ALTHOUGH HINDERED SOMEWHAT BY CONVECTIVE DEBRIS. TEMPERATURES AROUND 80 AND DEW POINTS AROUND 60 SUPPORT MLCAPES FROM 1000 TO 1500 J/KG PER MODIFIED RUC SOUNDINGS. EOX AND JGX VAD WIND PROFILERS INDICATE UNIDIRECTIONAL WLY FLOW ACROSS MUCH OF SRN AL INTO CNTRL GA...WITH ADEQUATE SPEED SHEAR AROUND 35 TO 45 KTS. AS STORMS PROPAGATE EWD INTO THE MORE UNSTABLE AIR MASS S OF THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY...POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. ..GRAMS.. 05/14/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...FFC...TAE...BMX...MOB... 31788740 32248748 32248612 32668496 33418332 33148284 32568261 31578406 31418540 31558673 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Sun May 14 20:09:11 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Sun, 14 May 2006 16:09:11 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 142007 SWOMCD SPC MCD 142007 TXZ000-142100- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0868 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0307 PM CDT SUN MAY 14 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS CENTRAL...S-CENTRAL AND SE TX. CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 349... VALID 142007Z - 142100Z BAND OF STRONG-SEVERE TSTMS FROM HOU AREA WNWWD TO MCCULLOCH COUNTIES SHOULD CONTINUE TO MOVE SWD ACROSS REMAINDER WW AREA IN TX. WW MAY BE REPLACED BEFORE 21Z TO INCLUDE MORE AREAS JUST W AND/OR S OF PRESENT WW BETWEEN JCT/DRT AREAS AND MIDDLE TX COAST...AND ALSO TO EXCLUDE LA...WHERE AIR MASS HAS BEEN SUBSTANTIALLY STABILIZED BY EARLIER MCS. SFC MESOANALYSIS...RUC SOUNDINGS AND VIS IMAGERY INDICATE BOUNDARY LAYER CONTINUES TO WARM AND DESTABILIZE ACROSS PRECONVECTIVE AIR MASS OVER REGION. STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES...AND SFC DEW POINTS REMAINING IN UPPER 60S-LOW 70S F...CONTRIBUTE TO MLCAPES 3000-4000 J/KG. STRONG CAPPING STILL IS EVIDENT FROM SAT AREA SWD...LIMITING DEVELOPMENT IN WARM SECTOR AWAY FROM OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES. HOWEVER...REINFORCEMENT OF THOSE BOUNDARIES BY COLD POOLS MAY OVERCOME CINH AND ALLOW CONVECTION EVENTUALLY TO CONTINUE OR PROPAGATE THROUGH THAT REGION. OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM LA MCS IS EVIDENT FROM ABOUT 30 SSE GLS NWWD ACROSS FT BEND COUNTY AND INTO CLUSTER OF CONVECTION OVER MONTGOMERY COUNTY. ACTIVITY HAS DEVELOPED ON BOTH SIDES OF THIS BOUNDARY FROM COLORADO COUNTY ESEWD TO MAINLAND GALVESTON COUNTY...IN ADDITION TO POTENTIALLY SVR CLUSTER OF TSTMS PROPAGATING SSEWD INTO NRN HARRIS COUNTY. MEANWHILE ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED INVOF BLENDED OUTFLOW/FRONTAL ZONE MOVING SWD THROUGH SJT-JCT-AUS CORRIDOR. ..EDWARDS.. 05/14/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...HGX...FWD...CRP...EWX...SJT... 31169961 31249824 30589581 30129482 29369453 28909512 28629757 28789972 29650082 30400058 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Sun May 14 20:17:06 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Sun, 14 May 2006 16:17:06 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 141922 SWOMCD SPC MCD 141922 GAZ000-ALZ000-142115- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0867 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0222 PM CDT SUN MAY 14 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...SRN AL/CNTRL GA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 141922Z - 142115Z TSTMS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ALONG CONVERGENCE BOUNDARY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. A MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIRMASS ALONG WITH MODERATE SPEED SHEAR WILL SUPPORT A THREAT FOR MAINLY LARGE HAIL. TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE WW IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. TSTMS APPEAR TO HAVE INITIATED ALONG AN APPARENT OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM EARLIER CONVECTION...GENERALLY IN AN AXIS BETWEEN MGM AND TOI ARCING NEWD TOWARDS MCN. AIR MASS HAS DESTABILIZED TO THE S OF THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY...ALTHOUGH HINDERED SOMEWHAT BY CONVECTIVE DEBRIS. TEMPERATURES AROUND 80 AND DEW POINTS AROUND 60 SUPPORT MLCAPES FROM 1000 TO 1500 J/KG PER MODIFIED RUC SOUNDINGS. EOX AND JGX VAD WIND PROFILERS INDICATE UNIDIRECTIONAL WLY FLOW ACROSS MUCH OF SRN AL INTO CNTRL GA...WITH ADEQUATE SPEED SHEAR AROUND 35 TO 45 KTS. AS STORMS PROPAGATE EWD INTO THE MORE UNSTABLE AIR MASS S OF THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY...POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. ..GRAMS.. 05/14/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...FFC...TAE...BMX...MOB... 31788740 32248748 32248612 32668496 33418332 33148284 32568261 31578406 31418540 31558673  From mcd at goshenarc.org Sun May 14 20:38:24 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Sun, 14 May 2006 16:38:24 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 142036 SWOMCD SPC MCD 142035 NCZ000-SCZ000-142130- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0869 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0335 PM CDT SUN MAY 14 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS CENTRAL/ERN NC. CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 351... VALID 142035Z - 142130Z SEVERE TSTMS -- INCLUDING A FEW SUPERCELLS -- CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS MUCH OF WW AREA. A FEW REPORTS OF WIND DAMAGE AND NUMEROUS REPORTS OF 1-2 INCH DIAMETER HAIL HAVE BEEN RECEIVED WITHIN PAST 1-2 HOURS. MAIN BAND OF CONVECTION HAS MOVED THROUGH MOST UNSTABLE AIR MASS OVER ERN NC...AND IS SHIFTING ENEWD ACROSS N-CENTRAL/NERN NC INTO SOMEWHAT LOWER BOUNDARY LAYER THETAE. HOWEVER...MODIFIED RUC SOUNDINGS INDICATE AROUND 500-800 J/KG MLCAPE REMAINS ACROSS MUCH OF REGION. VERTICAL SHEAR SHOULD REMAIN FAVORABLE BENEATH NRN PORTION OF MIDLEVEL SPEED MAX ACROSS WW AREA...WITH AROUND 50 KT EFFECTIVE SHEAR. VWP ACROSS REGION SHOW SLGT VEERING WITH HEIGHT IN LOWEST 3 KM...SUFFICIENT TO KEEP SRH IN THAT LAYER AROUND 300 J/KG FOR RIGHTWARD-DEVIANT...EWD MOVING STORMS. ..EDWARDS.. 05/14/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...RAH...ILM...CAE... 34597709 34637877 34767992 35428028 36407886 36477583 35257552 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Sun May 14 20:46:48 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Sun, 14 May 2006 16:46:48 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 142007 SWOMCD SPC MCD 142007 TXZ000-142100- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0868 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0307 PM CDT SUN MAY 14 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS CENTRAL...S-CENTRAL AND SE TX. CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 349... VALID 142007Z - 142100Z BAND OF STRONG-SEVERE TSTMS FROM HOU AREA WNWWD TO MCCULLOCH COUNTIES SHOULD CONTINUE TO MOVE SWD ACROSS REMAINDER WW AREA IN TX. WW MAY BE REPLACED BEFORE 21Z TO INCLUDE MORE AREAS JUST W AND/OR S OF PRESENT WW BETWEEN JCT/DRT AREAS AND MIDDLE TX COAST...AND ALSO TO EXCLUDE LA...WHERE AIR MASS HAS BEEN SUBSTANTIALLY STABILIZED BY EARLIER MCS. SFC MESOANALYSIS...RUC SOUNDINGS AND VIS IMAGERY INDICATE BOUNDARY LAYER CONTINUES TO WARM AND DESTABILIZE ACROSS PRECONVECTIVE AIR MASS OVER REGION. STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES...AND SFC DEW POINTS REMAINING IN UPPER 60S-LOW 70S F...CONTRIBUTE TO MLCAPES 3000-4000 J/KG. STRONG CAPPING STILL IS EVIDENT FROM SAT AREA SWD...LIMITING DEVELOPMENT IN WARM SECTOR AWAY FROM OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES. HOWEVER...REINFORCEMENT OF THOSE BOUNDARIES BY COLD POOLS MAY OVERCOME CINH AND ALLOW CONVECTION EVENTUALLY TO CONTINUE OR PROPAGATE THROUGH THAT REGION. OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM LA MCS IS EVIDENT FROM ABOUT 30 SSE GLS NWWD ACROSS FT BEND COUNTY AND INTO CLUSTER OF CONVECTION OVER MONTGOMERY COUNTY. ACTIVITY HAS DEVELOPED ON BOTH SIDES OF THIS BOUNDARY FROM COLORADO COUNTY ESEWD TO MAINLAND GALVESTON COUNTY...IN ADDITION TO POTENTIALLY SVR CLUSTER OF TSTMS PROPAGATING SSEWD INTO NRN HARRIS COUNTY. MEANWHILE ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED INVOF BLENDED OUTFLOW/FRONTAL ZONE MOVING SWD THROUGH SJT-JCT-AUS CORRIDOR. ..EDWARDS.. 05/14/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...HGX...FWD...CRP...EWX...SJT... 31169961 31249824 30589581 30129482 29369453 28909512 28629757 28789972 29650082 30400058  From mcd at goshenarc.org Sun May 14 21:01:07 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Sun, 14 May 2006 17:01:07 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 142036 SWOMCD SPC MCD 142035 NCZ000-SCZ000-142130- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0869 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0335 PM CDT SUN MAY 14 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS CENTRAL/ERN NC. CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 351... VALID 142035Z - 142130Z SEVERE TSTMS -- INCLUDING A FEW SUPERCELLS -- CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS MUCH OF WW AREA. A FEW REPORTS OF WIND DAMAGE AND NUMEROUS REPORTS OF 1-2 INCH DIAMETER HAIL HAVE BEEN RECEIVED WITHIN PAST 1-2 HOURS. MAIN BAND OF CONVECTION HAS MOVED THROUGH MOST UNSTABLE AIR MASS OVER ERN NC...AND IS SHIFTING ENEWD ACROSS N-CENTRAL/NERN NC INTO SOMEWHAT LOWER BOUNDARY LAYER THETAE. HOWEVER...MODIFIED RUC SOUNDINGS INDICATE AROUND 500-800 J/KG MLCAPE REMAINS ACROSS MUCH OF REGION. VERTICAL SHEAR SHOULD REMAIN FAVORABLE BENEATH NRN PORTION OF MIDLEVEL SPEED MAX ACROSS WW AREA...WITH AROUND 50 KT EFFECTIVE SHEAR. VWP ACROSS REGION SHOW SLGT VEERING WITH HEIGHT IN LOWEST 3 KM...SUFFICIENT TO KEEP SRH IN THAT LAYER AROUND 300 J/KG FOR RIGHTWARD-DEVIANT...EWD MOVING STORMS. ..EDWARDS.. 05/14/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...RAH...ILM...CAE... 34597709 34637877 34767992 35428028 36407886 36477583 35257552  From mcd at goshenarc.org Sun May 14 21:04:19 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Sun, 14 May 2006 17:04:19 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 142059 SWOMCD SPC MCD 142058 VAZ000-NCZ000-SCZ000-GAZ000-142230- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0870 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0358 PM CDT SUN MAY 14 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS CENTRAL/SRN VA...WRN NC...SC...ERN GA. CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 350...352... VALID 142058Z - 142230Z ISOLATED/MRGL SVR MAY STILL OCCUR OVER PORTIONS CENTRAL VA...AS CONVECTION NOW BETWEEN LYH-PTB MOVES NEWD INTO POCKET OF RELATIVELY UNSTABLE AIR THAT WAS HEATED EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON...AND WHICH HAS BEEN RELATIVELY UNDISTURBED BY OTHER CONVECTION. WRN NC PORTION OF WW 350 -- WHICH WAS NOT CONVERTED TO TORNADO WW 351 -- HAS STABILIZED SUBSTANTIALLY FROM EARLIER ACTIVITY...REDUCING SEVERE POTENTIAL. STRONGEST VERTICAL SHEAR AND GREATEST BUOYANCY REMAINS OVER SRN LOBE OF WW 350 AND ADJACENT WW 352. THIS AREA IS DIRECTLY BENEATH MIDLEVEL SPEED MAX PIVOTING EWD AROUND PERIPHERY OF GREAT LAKES CYCLONE...RESULTING IN 50-60 KT OF 0-6 KM SHEAR IN SUPPORT OF SUPERCELL POTENTIAL. HAIL UP TO 1.5 INCHES HAS BEEN REPORTED WITHIN PAST HOUR FROM ACTIVITY IN CHARLESTON COUNTY. LIKELY SUPERCELL STRUCTURES SUPPORT RISK OF EVEN LARGER HAIL FROM ACTIVITY OVER NERN SC AND SERN NC...WHERE AIR MASS HAS BEEN RELATIVELY UNDISTURBED BY PRIOR CONVECTION. ADDITIONAL DESTABILIZATION IS OCCURRING ALONG WRN PORTION OF CLOUD/PRECIP AREA ASSOCIATED WITH CHS COUNTY STORM...ACROSS GA/SC BORDER REGION. ..EDWARDS.. 05/14/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...LWX...RAH...ILM...RNK...CHS...CAE...GSP...JAX...FFC... 34817847 34517824 34727808 34707773 34227735 33877799 33737884 33157921 32368047 31308122 31948223 33988260 34048196 35548150 36128150 36958016 37318036 38177966 38687886 37897653 37177645 36587688 36547915 36237919 36178006 35768043 34838032 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Sun May 14 23:39:23 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Sun, 14 May 2006 19:39:23 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 142337 SWOMCD SPC MCD 142337 TXZ000-150100- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0871 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0637 PM CDT SUN MAY 14 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...S-CNTRL TX CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 353... VALID 142337Z - 150100Z CLUSTERS OF STRONG TO SEVERE TSTMS WILL CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE SWD ACROSS SRN HALF OF WW 353. A VERY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH STRONG DIRECTIONAL SHEAR WILL CONTINUE THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. AREA TO THE S OF WW 353 IS BEING MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE WW IN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO. A VERY WARM AND MOIST AIR MASS REMAINS IN PLACE AHEAD OF SWD MOVING CLUSTERS OF SEVERE TSTMS IN AN AXIS FROM VAL VERDE TO MATAGORDA COUNTIES. ASSOCIATED COLD POOL WILL LIKELY INITIATE ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE SRN PERIPHERY OF WW 353...ESPECIALLY TOWARDS THE RIO GRANDE RIVER VALLEY NEAR LRD. MLCAPES OF 3000 TO 4000 J/KG ALONG WITH EFFECTIVE SHEAR OF 50 TO 60 KTS WILL SUPPORT CONTINUED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. STEEP LAPSE RATES WILL LIKELY LEAD TO LARGE HAIL BEING THE MAIN THREAT. IN ADDITION...HIGH DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS ALONG THE RIO GRANDE NEAR LRD WILL SUPPORT AN ENHANCED THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS IN THIS AREA. IF STORMS CAN MAINTAIN SFC-BASED CHARACTER IN MODIFIED MARINE LAYER AIR MASS NEAR THE COASTAL BEND...AN ISOLATED THREAT FOR A TORNADO WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH O-1 KM SRH OF 100 TO 150 M2/S2 /PER CRP VAD PROFILER/. ..GRAMS.. 05/14/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...HGX...CRP...EWX...BRO... 29810171 30120003 29689729 29069520 27719710 26699776 26249873 27419946 28830051 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Mon May 15 00:09:45 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Sun, 14 May 2006 20:09:45 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 150007 SWOMCD SPC MCD 150007 NCZ000-150130- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0872 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0707 PM CDT SUN MAY 14 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF CNTRL THROUGH ERN NC CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 351... VALID 150007Z - 150130Z THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL...ISOLATED TORNADOES AND DAMAGING WIND IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST ANOTHER FEW HOURS ACROSS PARTS OF CNTRL THROUGH ERN NC. THIS EVENING A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM WRN SC NEWD THROUGH CNTRL NC WHERE IT TRANSITIONS TO A WARM FRONT FROM JUST S OF RALEIGH EWD TO S OF ELIZABETH CITY. DESPITE SOME STABILIZATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE COOLING BOUNDARY LAYER...COLD MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES OF -16 TO -17C WILL MAINTAIN SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY AND LAPSE RATES FOR THE THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER TO PERSIST A WHILE LONGER. STORMS HAVE INCREASED ALONG THE SURFACE FRONT ACROSS CNTRL THROUGH NERN NC. FORCING FOR ASCENT WITHIN EXIT REGION OF MID LEVEL JET ROTATING THROUGH BASE OF UPPER TROUGH WILL MAINTAIN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR STORMS TO CONTINUE DEVELOPING NEAR THIS BOUNDARY NEXT FEW HOURS. A SLY LOW LEVEL JET OVER ERN NC IS COUPLED WITH EXIT REGION OF THE UPPER JET...CONTRIBUTING TO FAVORABLE LOW LEVEL AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR PROFILES FOR SUPERCELLS WITH LOW LEVEL MESOCYCLONES. TORNADO THREAT MAY BE LOCALLY ENHANCED BY THE E-W ORIENTED FRONT WHERE THE LOW LEVEL FLOW IS LOCALLY BACKED TO ELY. ..DIAL.. 05/15/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...RAH... 35257712 35407944 35697954 36037815 36167716 35937665 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Mon May 15 00:14:15 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Sun, 14 May 2006 20:14:15 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 150012 SWOMCD SPC MCD 150012 TXZ000-NMZ000-150145- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0873 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0712 PM CDT SUN MAY 14 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...SERN NM/FAR W TX CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 150012Z - 150145Z SEVERE TSTM THREAT IS INCREASING WITH SCATTERED TSTM DEVELOPMENT ALREADY OCCURRING ALONG THE HIGH TERRAIN OF CNTRL NM. AN ADDITIONAL TSTM IS DEVELOPING IN VICINITY OF TERRELL COUNTY IN TX. A WEAK TO MODERATELY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH STRONG DIRECTIONAL WIND SHEAR WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR AN ORGANIZED SEVERE THREAT. AREA IS BEING MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE WW IN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO. STRONG TO POTENTIALLY SEVERE TSTMS IN LINCOLN AND OTERO COUNTIES IN NM SHOULD BEGIN TO PROPAGATE SSE INTO A MORE UNSTABLE AIR MASS ACROSS THE SERN PLAINS OF NM. ALTHOUGH THE ENVIRONMENT IS ONLY WEAKLY UNSTABLE WITH MLCAPES AROUND 1000 J/KG...EFFECTIVE SHEAR OF 40 TO 50 KTS WILL BE SUFFICIENT TO PROMOTE STORM ORGANIZATION. SUBSTANTIAL DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS OF 30 TO 40 DEGREES WILL PROVIDE A VERY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DAMAGING WINDS. FURTHER SE IN FAR W TX...THE ENVIRONMENT REMAINS CAPPED...BUT CU DEVELOPMENT HAS INCREASED IN THE PAST HOUR. A NARROW AXIS OF MID 50 DEW POINTS FROM FST TO 6R6 MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR TSTM DEVELOPMENT IN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO. IF TSTMS DO DEVELOP...A MODERATELY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH MLCAPES OF 1500 TO 2000 J/KG LIKELY EXISTS /PER MODIFIED 00Z DRT SOUNDING/. DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL ARE THE PRIMARY THREATS. ..GRAMS.. 05/15/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MAF...ABQ...EPZ... 31220300 30170191 29910240 29540332 29780409 30000454 30650490 32070622 33240679 34430587 34240517 32350387 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Mon May 15 01:36:19 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Sun, 14 May 2006 21:36:19 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 150134 SWOMCD SPC MCD 150134 NCZ000-SCZ000-GAZ000-150230- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0874 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0834 PM CDT SUN MAY 14 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN NC THROUGH COASTAL SC CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 351...355... VALID 150134Z - 150230Z SEVERE THREAT WILL HAVE ENDED ACROSS MUCH OF 355 BY 02Z. WW MAY BE LOCALLY EXTENDED FOR SOME COASTAL COUNTIES FOR AN HOUR OR SO IF NECESSARY. SEVERE THREAT IN TORNADO WATCH 351 ALSO APPEARS TO BE ON THE DECLINE. HOWEVER...SOME SEVERE THREAT MAY PERSIST ACROSS PARTS OF ERN NC AN HOUR OR TWO BEYOND 02Z AND PORTIONS OF THIS WW MAY ALSO NEED TO BE LOCALLY EXTENDED. THIS EVENING A FEW SEVERE STORMS INCLUDING SUPERCELLS CONTINUE EWD THROUGH COASTAL SC. MUCH OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL HAVE MOVED OFFSHORE SHORTLY AFTER 02Z. FARTHER N...A LINE OF STORMS CONTINUES TRAINING ON QUASISTATIONARY FRONT WITH STRONGEST STORMS FROM JOHNSTON COUNTY NEWD TO TYRRELL COUNTY. ORGANIZED STORMS STRUCTURES INCLUDING BOW ECHOES AND AN ISOLATED SUPERCELL OR TWO CONTINUE TO BE OBSERVED WITHIN THE LINE. OVERALL INTENSITIES HAVE DECREASED DURING THE PAST HOUR AND STORMS APPEAR TO BE TRANSITIONING TO OUTFLOW DOMINANT. THE STABILIZING BOUNDARY LAYER AND INCREASINGLY MARGINAL INSTABILITY SHOULD CONTRIBUTE TO FURTHER WEAKENING WITH TIME. HOWEVER...STORMS ARE STILL EMBEDDED WITHIN STRONG SHEAR PROFILES AND SOME SEVERE THREAT MAY PERSIST WITH THIS ACTIVITY AT LEAST AN HOUR OR TWO BEYOND WW 351 EXPIRATION TIME OF 02Z. ..DIAL.. 05/15/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...RAH...ILM...CHS... 34307732 32108118 32968067 33987923 35157855 35857848 35927725 35977593 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Mon May 15 01:56:07 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Sun, 14 May 2006 21:56:07 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 150154 SWOMCD SPC MCD 150154 TXZ000-150330- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0875 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0854 PM CDT SUN MAY 14 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTH TX CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 353...356... VALID 150154Z - 150330Z CONVECTIVE LINE AND SVR THREAT WILL HAVE MOVED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF WW 353 BY 0230Z. THUS WW 353 WILL LIKELY BE CANCELLED EARLY...BEFORE 04Z EXPIRATION TIME. SVR THREAT WILL BE GREATEST OVER THE SWRN HALF OF WW 356 FOR THE NEXT FEW HRS. LATEST RADAR SHOWS REMNANT CONVECTIVE LINE PUSHING SWD AROUND 20 KTS ACROSS SOUTH TX AND THE SRN EDGE OF WW 353. BEHIND THIS ACTIVITY STRONG PRESSURE RISES AND DIMINISHING INSTABILITY SUGGEST THAT NO ADDITIONAL SVR THREAT WILL EXIST. GIVEN THE EXTRAPOLATION OF THE LINE MOVEMENT...THE LAST OF THE MARGINAL SVR THREAT SHOULD BE OUT OF WW 353 BY 0230Z. FURTHER SOUTH...CONVECTIVE CLUSTER ALONG THE LOWER RIO GRANDE RIVER VALLEY WILL POSE THE MAIN SVR THREAT OVER WW 356 IN THE NEXT 1-2 HRS. STRONG MOIST ELY FLOW /PER SFC AND VWP DATA/ WAS OCCURRING NORTH OF AN OUTFLOW BNDRY EXTENDING FROM KENEDY TO ZAPATA COUNTIES. THE SOMEWHAT COOLER AIR NORTH OF THIS BNDRY /COMBINED WITH WEAK AMBIENT MID LEVEL WINDS/ WILL AID IN THE CONVECTIVE CLUSTER MVMNT GENERALLY SEWD OR SSEWD OVER THE NEXT FEW HRS ALONG THE LOWER RIO GRANDE RIVER VALLEY. ANY STORMS WITH THIS CLUSTER THAT INTERACT WITH THE BNDRY MAY POSE A BRIEF TORNADO THREAT. PER RADAR IMAGERY A SECONDARY LINE OF CONVECTION WILL MOVE SWD INTO THE LOWER TX COAST OVER THE NEXT FEW HRS BEHIND THE MAIN OUTFLOW BNDRY. THE PROBABILITY OF SVR WEATHER WITH THIS LINE SHOULD REMAIN RELATIVELY LOW...BUT MAY INCREASE IF IT CAN SUSTAIN ITSELF AND REACH THE MORE UNSTABLE AIR SOUTH OF THE MAIN OUTFLOW BNDRY ACROSS DEEP SOUTH TX AFTER 03Z. ..CROSBIE.. 05/15/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...CRP...EWX...BRO... 28049692 28639924 29020075 28790078 27830003 26670000 26019771 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Mon May 15 02:25:12 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Sun, 14 May 2006 22:25:12 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 150223 SWOMCD SPC MCD 150223 TXZ000-NMZ000-150430- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0876 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0923 PM CDT SUN MAY 14 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...SCENTRAL/SERN NM AND SWRN TX CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 357... VALID 150223Z - 150430Z ISOLATED SVR STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SSEWD OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SCENTRAL AND SERN NM /NWRN PORTION OF WW 357/ AND INTO FAR WRN TX /INCLUDING THE ELP AREA/ IN THE NEXT 1-2 HRS. ADDITIONAL SVR STORMS MAY DEVELOP OVER THE DAVIS MTNS AND MOVE SEWD INTO THE BIG BEND REGION /SERN PORTION OF WW 357/...AS MOIST UPSLOPE FLOW INCREASES. LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS DEWPTS CONTINUE TO RISE OVER MUCH OF WW 357 AS LOW LEVEL ENELY FLOW MOISTURE ADVECTION OCCURS. MODERATE INSTABILITY AXIS REMAINS IN PLACE FROM THE ELP AREA SEWD INTO THE DAVIS MTNS/BIG BEND REGION...WITH MUCAPES FROM 1000-2000 J/KG. THE GREATEST PRESSURE RISES DUE TO CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW FROM STORMS OVER THE MIDDLE RIO GRANDE RIVER VALLEY HAVE YET TO REACH THE DAVIS MTNS. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT ADDITIONAL SVR CONVECTION MAY DEVELOP AS UPSLOPE FLOW INCREASES WITHIN THE NEXT HR OR SO. OTHERWISE...THE MAIN SVR THREAT SHOULD REMAIN OVER NWRN HALF OF WW 357 FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF HRS WHERE CONVECTION MOVES SSEWD OUT OF THE SACRAMENTO AND GUADALUPE MTNS OF SCENTRAL/SERN NM INTO LOWER ELEVATIONS OF FAR WRN TX. A DEEPLY MIXED BNDRY LAYER WILL SUPPORT A DMGG WIND THREAT...BUT ISOLATED LARGE HAIL WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE DUE TO FAVORABLY STRONG CLOUD LAYER SHEAR AND WET-BULB COOLING EFFECTS. ..CROSBIE.. 05/15/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...EWX...SJT...MAF...ABQ...EPZ... 33380590 32110694 28980252 30260150 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Mon May 15 07:18:08 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Mon, 15 May 2006 03:18:08 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 150716 SWOMCD SPC MCD 150715 GAZ000-FLZ000-150915- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0877 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0215 AM CDT MON MAY 15 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...NRN FLORIDA...SRN GEORGIA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 150715Z - 150915Z A WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED...BUT TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF AN INCREASING SEVERE THREAT. PRE-FRONTAL LOW-LEVEL CONFLUENCE NEAR 25-30 KT WEST SOUTHWESTERLY LOW-LEVEL JET ACROSS NORTHERN FLORIDA/SOUTHERN GEORGIA APPEARS TO BE FOCUS FOR ONGOING CONVECTIVE BAND. ACTIVITY IS DEVELOPING IN MOIST ENVIRONMENT WITH MIXED LAYER AND MOST UNSTABLE CAPE ON THE ORDER OF 1000-2000 J/KG...AND MODERATELY STRONG UNIDIRECTIONAL SHEAR APPEARS TO CONTRIBUTING TO EMBEDDED ISOLATED STRONGER CELLS. SURFACE BASED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT APPEARS CONFINED TO WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE COASTAL AREAS...WITH ACTIVITY LIKELY ELEVATED ABOVE AT LEAST A SHALLOW SURFACE INVERSION ACROSS INLAND AREAS OF NORTHERN FLORIDA/ SOUTHERN FLORIDA. LITTLE CHANGE IS ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT AS CONVECTIVE BAND SHIFTS ONLY VERY SLOWLY EASTWARD. INCREASING MID/UPPER FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH NEXT IMPULSE ROTATING AROUND SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF OHIO VALLEY CLOSED MAY PROVIDE SOME RISK FOR GROWING CLUSTER OF STORMS EAST OF TALLAHASSEE TOWARD 12Z...BUT THIS POTENTIAL SEEMS LOW/UNCERTAIN AT THE PRESENT TIME. HOWEVER ...ISOLATED STRONGER CELLS COULD STILL BRIEFLY PRODUCE MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL...PERHAPS SOME GUSTY WINDS THROUGH DAYBREAK. ..KERR.. 05/15/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...CHS...JAX...TAE...MOB... 30408698 30518587 31078440 31878229 31768155 31108139 30488161 29978270 29518442 29498511 29428629 29688750 29988761 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Mon May 15 17:05:47 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Mon, 15 May 2006 13:05:47 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 151702 SWOMCD SPC MCD 151702 FLZ000-GAZ000-151830- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0878 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1202 PM CDT MON MAY 15 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...NRN FL CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 151702Z - 151830Z VSBL SATL CONTINUES TO SHOW A GROWING CUMULUS FIELD ACROSS NRN FL WITH TSTMS INITIATING ALONG AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY NEAR THE GA/FL BORDER AREA. AIR MASS TO THE SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY HAS BECOME VERY UNSTABLE OWING TO STRONG HEATING AND MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AROUND 7 DEGREES C PER KM. TSTMS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY AS TAIL-END OF A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. 0-6KM SHEAR OF 45-50 KTS AND MAGNITUDE OF INSTABILITY SUGGEST THAT LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY SEVERE RISKS. ..RACY.. 05/15/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MLB...TBW...JAX...TAE... 29868358 30448319 30658155 29148097 28678289  From mcd at goshenarc.org Mon May 15 17:46:05 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Mon, 15 May 2006 13:46:05 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 151744 SWOMCD SPC MCD 151744 NCZ000-VAZ000-151915- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0879 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1244 PM CDT MON MAY 15 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN NC AND EXTREME SERN VA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 151744Z - 151915Z TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAINS OF NC AND SERN VA THROUGH MID-AFTN. A FEW STORMS MAY PRODUCE DAMAGING WINDS...HAIL AND PERHAPS A TORNADO. A WW MAY BE REQUIRED THIS AFTN FOR PARTS OF ERN NC. RECENT MESOANALYSIS SHOWS THAT PRESSURE FALLS HAVE BECOME CONCENTRATED ACROSS ERN NC...SUPPORTING THE RUC TRENDS OF TRACKING THE SFC LOW FROM OVER UPSTATE SC INTO ERN NC BY LATE AFTN. RESULTANT INCREASE IN SFC CONVERGENCE OVER THE COASTAL PLAINS WILL LIKELY CONTRIBUTE TO TSTM INITIATION SHORTLY. AIR MASS IS NOT TERRIBLY UNSTABLE OWING TO MORNING CLOUD COVER...BUT AS AN UPSTREAM MID-LEVEL SPEED MAX TRANSLATES NEWD...ENVIRONMENT WILL SUPPORT DEEP MOIST CONVECTION. VERTICAL SHEAR IS MORE THAN SUFFICIENT FOR ORGANIZED STORMS. ACTIVITY WILL PROBABLY DEVELOP INTO SHORT LINE SEGMENTS WITH EMBEDDED BRIEF SUPERCELL STRUCTURES AND MOVE ENEWD INTO SERN VA AND THE OUTER BANKS OF NC BY EVENING. DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREAT...BUT SOUNDINGS SUGGEST SUFFICIENT 0-1KM SHEAR /AROUND 150-170 M2/S2/ FOR THE THREAT FOR TORNADOES. ..RACY.. 05/15/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...RAH...ILM... 34677883 35727854 36787769 37037646 36057551 35027558 33957668 33957821 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Mon May 15 18:15:38 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Mon, 15 May 2006 14:15:38 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 151813 SWOMCD SPC MCD 151813 FLZ000-151945- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0880 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0113 PM CDT MON MAY 15 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...SERN FL CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 151813Z - 151945Z TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO DEVELOP THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS ALONG THE SERN COAST OF FL. A MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS ALONG WITH SUFFICIENT WIND SHEAR WILL SUPPORT SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. GPS PRECIPITABLE WATER PRODUCT HAS SHOWN A LARGE MOISTURE FLUX INCREASE ACROSS SRN FL OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. TSTMS HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG SEA BREEZE CONVERGENCE BOUNDARY OVER THE PAST HOUR. MODIFIED RUC SOUNDINGS SHOW AN UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH MLCAPES OF 2000 TO 2500 J/KG. THIS COMBINED WITH EFFECTIVE SHEAR OF AROUND 40 KTS WILL BE SUFFICIENT TO ALLOW SUPERCELLS TO DEVELOP THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. STEEP LOW AND MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL SUPPORT A LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND THREAT. ALTHOUGH LOW-LEVEL SHEAR IS LACKING IN MIAMI VAD PROFILER...LOCALIZED INTERACTIONS BETWEEN STORMS AND SEA BREEZE CONVERGENCE BOUNDARY MAY PROVIDE AN ISOLATED THREAT FOR TORNADOES. ..GRAMS.. 05/15/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MFL...MLB... 25698085 26368101 26958093 27278028 26957998 26197995 25458016 25318078 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Mon May 15 23:20:00 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Mon, 15 May 2006 19:20:00 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 152318 SWOMCD SPC MCD 152318 NCZ000-SCZ000-160045- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0882 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0618 PM CDT MON MAY 15 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN SC THROUGH ERN NC CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 359... VALID 152318Z - 160045Z THE THREAT FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND AND LARGE HAIL IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST ANOTHER 2-3 HOURS...FOLLOWED BY A GRADUAL DECREASE IN INTENSITY. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE DEVELOPING IN VICINITY OF COLD FRONT ACROSS THE ERN CAROLINAS NEXT FEW HOURS WITHIN ZONE OF ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH NEWD ADVANCING UPPER JET. STRONG UNIDIRECTIONAL DEEP LAYER VERTICAL SHEAR OF 50-60 KT ENHANCED BY THE MID LEVEL JET WILL SUPPORT UPDRAFT ROTATION WITHIN THE STRONGER STORMS. COLD MID LEVEL THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES OF -16C TO -17C AND POTENTIAL FOR UPDRAFT ROTATION MAY ENHANCE THE THREAT FOR HAIL WITHIN THE STRONGER STORMS. HOWEVER...INSTABILITY WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY MARGINAL AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER BEGINS TO COOL...AND A SLOW DECREASE IN OVERALL INTENSITIES IS EXPECTED AFTER ANOTHER COUPLE HOURS. ..DIAL.. 05/15/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...RAH...ILM... 33507952 34197963 35897729 36137556 35367545 33797866 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Tue May 16 03:00:18 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Mon, 15 May 2006 23:00:18 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 160257 SWOMCD SPC MCD 160257 FLZ000-160500- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0883 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0957 PM CDT MON MAY 15 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...S CNTRL THROUGH S FL CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 160257Z - 160500Z THUNDERSTORMS WILL SPREAD INLAND INTO THE S CNTRL AND S FL PENINSULA NEXT FEW HOURS. THE STRONGER STORMS COULD PRODUCE ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND AND HAIL. CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE WW. LONG LIVED MCS OVER THE ERN GULF ABOUT 35 MILES OFFSHORE OF THE SRN FL PENINSULA CONTINUES EWD AT AROUND 30-35 KT. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD BEGIN TO MOVE INLAND NEAR 04Z. AT THE SURFACE A PRE-EXISTING BOUNDARY EXTENDS FROM NEAR PALM BEACH SWWD THROUGH THE EVERGLADES. THIS BOUNDARY HAS BEEN PARTIALLY REINFORCED BY CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW FROM PREVIOUS STORMS. SE OF THIS BOUNDARY...LOW LEVEL SHEAR IS ENHANCED BY SELY FLOW NEAR THE SURFACE VEERING TO SSWLY AROUND 1 KM. W OF THE BOUNDARY LOW LEVEL SHEAR IS MORE LIMITED...BUT DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS SUFFICIENT FOR ORGANIZED STORM STRUCTURES INCLUDING SUPERCELLS. THE THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT IS CHARACTERIZED BY MODERATE INSTABILITY WITH MLCAPE ON THE ORDER OF 1500 TO 2000 J/KG AND MODERATELY STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. CURRENT THINKING IS THAT THE PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND AND HAIL. HOWEVER...THERE IS SOME CONCERN FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF AN ISOLATED TORNADO OR TWO GIVEN THE BACKED LOW LEVEL FLOW SE OF THE SURFACE BOUNDARY ACROSS DEEP S FL. ..DIAL.. 05/16/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MFL...MLB...EYW...TBW... 25258014 24768123 26658234 27368090 26977999  From mcd at goshenarc.org Tue May 16 08:44:37 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Tue, 16 May 2006 04:44:37 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 160842 SWOMCD SPC MCD 160842 FLZ000-161015- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0884 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0342 AM CDT TUE MAY 16 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...SRN FL CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 360... VALID 160842Z - 161015Z STRONGER CONVECTION IS SHIFTING EWD/OFFSHORE OVER SRN FL. RADAR IMAGERY REVEALS A GENERAL WEAKENING TREND IN ONGOING CONVECTION...WITH STRONGEST STORMS -- AND ASSOCIATED OUTFLOW BOUNDARY -- MOVING OFF THE SERN COAST OF FL ATTM. AIRMASS HAS BEEN STABILIZED CONSIDERABLY IN THE WAKE OF THESE STORMS...AND THUS EXPECT ANY SEVERE THREAT WITH NEWLY-DEVELOPING CONVECTION OFF THE SWRN FL COAST TO REMAIN MINIMAL. ..GOSS.. 05/16/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MFL...EYW... 26887986 24998000 24498147 25398085 26038042 26768029 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Fri May 19 19:51:44 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Fri, 19 May 2006 15:51:44 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 191948 SWOMCD SPC MCD 191948 TNZ000-KYZ000-ILZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-192145- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0896 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0248 PM CDT FRI MAY 19 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...SERN MO...SRN IL...NERN AR...WRN KY/TN CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 191948Z - 192145Z SEVERE STORM POTENTIAL IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE ACROSS PARTS OF MO/AR/IL/KY AND TN OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. A WATCH MAY BE NEEDED OVER THE REGION THROUGH THIS EVENING. A BROAD NW-SE ORIENTED ZONE OF PERSISTENT LOW LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION ACROSS MO IS EXPECTED TO AID STORM INITIATION IN VERY UNSTABLE AIR MASS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. LATEST TRENDS SUGGEST THAT INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE AIR ORIGINATING WITHIN CAPPED WARM SECTOR WAS LIKELY FUELING ELEVATED CONVECTION DEVELOPING SEWD ACROSS THE LOWER OH VALLEY FROM IL TO WRN KY ATTM. WHILE THERE MAY BE AN INCREASE IN DEEP CONVECTION...AND SOME HAIL THREAT...ON THE COOL SIDE OF THE WARM FRONT...A GREATER CONCERN EXISTS ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR WHERE SURFACE-BASED STORMS MAY DEVELOP WITHIN A VERY UNSTABLE AIR MASS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. CONVECTIVE INHIBITION ACROSS SRN MO/SERN AR SHOULD BE EFFECTIVELY REDUCED AS TEMPERATURES CLIMB TOWARD 90F THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON. SURFACE-BASED TSTM DEVELOPMENT MAY BE AIDED BY APPROACH OF LOW-AMPLITUDE MID LEVEL IMPULSE NOW EVIDENT IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY ACROSS WRN IA. THIS FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO INDUCE SURFACE FRONTAL WAVE DEVELOPMENT WHICH IN TURN SHOULD RESULT IN STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL WSWLY FLOW AND LIFT ACROSS THE AREA. DESPITE RELATIVELY WELL-MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER AND HIGH LFC/CLOUD BASE...STRONG TURNING OF THE LOW LEVEL FLOW THROUGH THE STORM UPDRAFT LAYER...AND ROUGHLY 40KT EFFECTIVE SHEAR...WILL SUPPORT ROTATING STORMS. THIS ACTIVITY WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE LARGE HAIL AND HIGH WINDS AND SHOULD DEVELOP UPSCALE INTO THE EVENING AS SURFACE WAVE/LOW TRACKS SEWD ALONG THE WARM FRONT. A WATCH MAY BE ISSUED OVER THE AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS. ..CARBIN.. 05/19/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LMK...OHX...PAH...MEG...LSX...LZK...SGF... 36269237 36819279 37539312 38469280 38749237 38839163 38389018 38028886 37698785 36708699 36068698 35888757 35678963 35829125  From mcd at goshenarc.org Fri May 19 19:55:13 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Fri, 19 May 2006 15:55:13 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 191950 SWOMCD SPC MCD 191950 COR TNZ000-KYZ000-ILZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-192145- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0896 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0250 PM CDT FRI MAY 19 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...SERN MO...SRN IL...NERN AR...WRN KY/TN CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 191950Z - 192145Z CORRECTED SERN AR TO NERN AR IN 3RD PARAGRAPH SEVERE STORM POTENTIAL IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE ACROSS PARTS OF MO/AR/IL/KY AND TN OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. A WATCH MAY BE NEEDED OVER THE REGION THROUGH THIS EVENING. A BROAD NW-SE ORIENTED ZONE OF PERSISTENT LOW LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION ACROSS MO IS EXPECTED TO AID STORM INITIATION IN VERY UNSTABLE AIR MASS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. LATEST TRENDS SUGGEST THAT INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE AIR ORIGINATING WITHIN CAPPED WARM SECTOR WAS LIKELY FUELING ELEVATED CONVECTION DEVELOPING SEWD ACROSS THE LOWER OH VALLEY FROM IL TO WRN KY ATTM. WHILE THERE MAY BE AN INCREASE IN DEEP CONVECTION...AND SOME HAIL THREAT...ON THE COOL SIDE OF THE WARM FRONT...A GREATER CONCERN EXISTS ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR WHERE SURFACE-BASED STORMS MAY DEVELOP WITHIN A VERY UNSTABLE AIR MASS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. CONVECTIVE INHIBITION ACROSS SRN MO/NERN AR SHOULD BE EFFECTIVELY REDUCED AS TEMPERATURES CLIMB TOWARD 90F THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON. SURFACE-BASED TSTM DEVELOPMENT MAY BE AIDED BY APPROACH OF LOW-AMPLITUDE MID LEVEL IMPULSE NOW EVIDENT IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY ACROSS WRN IA. THIS FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO INDUCE SURFACE FRONTAL WAVE DEVELOPMENT WHICH IN TURN SHOULD RESULT IN STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL WSWLY FLOW AND LIFT ACROSS THE AREA. DESPITE RELATIVELY WELL-MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER AND HIGH LFC/CLOUD BASE...STRONG TURNING OF THE LOW LEVEL FLOW THROUGH THE STORM UPDRAFT LAYER...AND ROUGHLY 40KT EFFECTIVE SHEAR...WILL SUPPORT ROTATING STORMS. THIS ACTIVITY WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE LARGE HAIL AND HIGH WINDS AND SHOULD DEVELOP UPSCALE INTO THE EVENING AS SURFACE WAVE/LOW TRACKS SEWD ALONG THE WARM FRONT. A WATCH MAY BE ISSUED OVER THE AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS. ..CARBIN.. 05/19/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LMK...OHX...PAH...MEG...LSX...LZK...SGF... 36269237 36819279 37539312 38469280 38749237 38839163 38389018 38028886 37698785 36708699 36068698 35888757 35678963 35829125  From mcd at goshenarc.org Fri May 19 20:00:08 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Fri, 19 May 2006 16:00:08 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 191957 SWOMCD SPC MCD 191956 IDZ000-MTZ000-ORZ000-WAZ000-192200- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0897 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0256 PM CDT FRI MAY 19 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL/EASTERN ORE INTO EASTERN WA/WESTERN ID CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 191956Z - 192200Z POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED LARGE HAIL/STRONG WIND GUSTS IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON ACROSS CENTRAL/EASTERN ORE INTO EASTERN WA/WESTERN ID. WILL MONITOR FOR A POSSIBLE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY PORTRAYS UPPER TROUGH OFF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST CENTERED ALONG 135 W. AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE...HEIGHT FALLS ARE ONGOING ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AMIDST AN INCREASING BELT OF SOUTHWESTERLY MID LEVEL FLOW. 12Z/18Z OBSERVED BOISE RAOBS CAPTURE RATHER MOIST NATURE OF AIRMASS ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST...WITH PRECIP WATER VALUES RUNNING AS MUCH AS 200 PERCENT OF NORMAL. INCREASING FORCING FOR ASCENT COUPLED WITH AMPLE INSOLATION AND A WARM/MOIST AIRMASS IS EXPECTED TO LEAD TO INCREASING THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...MOST LIKELY FROM THE ORE CASCADES E/NE INTO EASTERN WA AND WESTERN ID. A RECENT INCREASE IS ALREADY EVIDENT ACROSS THE NORTHEAST ORE MOUNTAINS...AS WELL AS ALONG THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE ORE CASCADES NORTH OF REDMOND ORE. MODIFIED 18Z BOISE RAOB IN CONJUNCTION WITH RUC FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGESTS MODERATELY INSTABILITY OF 1500 J/KG MUCAPE OR GREATER WILL BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY FROM NORTHEAST ORE INTO ID. THIS DEGREE OF INSTABILITY COUPLED WITH AMPLE CLOUD BEARING SHEAR WOULD SUPPORT UPDRAFT ROTATION/SUPERCELL STRUCTURES...ENHANCING LARGE HAIL POTENTIAL. IN ADDITION TO LARGE HAIL...STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE. ..GUYER.. 05/19/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...PIH...MSO...BOI...OTX...PDT...MFR...PQR... 45772128 47401769 47471578 45981415 44031414 42911518 42291868 42322144 44102217  From mcd at goshenarc.org Fri May 19 23:06:45 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Fri, 19 May 2006 19:06:45 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 192303 SWOMCD SPC MCD 192303 IDZ000-MTZ000-ORZ000-WAZ000-200100- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0898 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0603 PM CDT FRI MAY 19 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...NORTH CENTRAL/NORTHEAST ORE AND SOUTHEAST WA INTO ID/FAR WESTERN MT CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 364... VALID 192303Z - 200100Z SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 364 CONTINUES UNTIL 04Z ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL/NORTHEAST ORE AND SOUTHEAST WA INTO NORTHWEST ID. LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL WILL CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY EVENING ACROSS WW 364...AND ADJACENT PORTIONS OF FAR WESTERN MT AND SOUTHERN ID. STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS CONTINUE LATE THIS AFTERNOON FROM NORTH CENTRAL ORE ALONG THE COLUMBIA RIVER INTO PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST/CENTRAL ID. THESE STORMS HAVE HAD A HISTORY OF SEVERAL SEVERE REPORTS ACROSS NORTHERN ORE...WHILE EXHIBITING SUPERCELL CHARACTERISTICS THIS AFTERNOON WITHIN AN ADEQUATELY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT /40 KNOTS OR GREATER 0-6 KM/. AIDED BY LOW LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW IN THE COLUMBIA VALLEY...ROTATING STORM CURRENTLY ACROSS NORTHERN MORROW COUNTY ORE AT 23Z APPEARS LIKELY TO REACH THE HERMISTON AREA BY 00Z...AND PERHAPS THE RICHLAND/PASCO/KENNEWICK WA AREAS THEREAFTER. PER 18Z OBSERVED RAOB FROM BOISE...A RATHER WARM/MOIST AIRMASS WITH MODERATE INSTABILITY -- 1500 J/KG MUCAPE OR GREATER -- WILL SUPPORT A SEVERE THREAT THROUGH EARLY EVENING. OUTSIDE OF WW 364...A RELATIVELY MORE ISOLATED SEVERE POTENTIAL WILL ALSO EXIST OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS INTO FAR WESTERN MT AND SOUTHERN ID. RATHER HIGH PW ENVIRONMENT AND MODEST STORM MOTIONS WILL SUPPORT LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL. ..GUYER.. 05/19/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...PIH...MSO...BOI...OTX...PDT... 44352084 47012040 48241460 45971446 42261337  From mcd at goshenarc.org Fri May 19 23:09:00 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Fri, 19 May 2006 19:09:00 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 192306 SWOMCD SPC MCD 192305 SDZ000-NEZ000-MTZ000-WYZ000-200030- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0899 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0605 PM CDT FRI MAY 19 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...SERN MT/NERN WY/FAR WRN SD/FAR NWRN NEB CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 192305Z - 200030Z ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS REMAIN POSSIBLE INTO THE EVENING ACROSS SERN MT/NERN WY AND POTENTIALLY REACHING FAR WRN SD/FAR NWRN NEB. STRONG WIND GUSTS AND MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL EXPECTED TO BE THE PRIMARY THREATS...WITH OVERALL ISOLATED NATURE OF THREAT PRECLUDING ISSUANCE OF A WW. SMALL CLUSTER OF STORMS LOCATED ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL-SERN MT IS ASSOCIATED WITH LARGE SCALE ASCENT ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH ROUNDING THE TOP OF THE UPPER RIDGE. SURFACE TROUGH WAS ANALYZED FROM SOUTH CENTRAL MT SEWD INTO ERN WY TO WRN NEB WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 40S-LOWER 50S EXTENDING FROM SERN MT/NERN WY INTO WRN SD CONTRIBUTING TO AN AXIS OF WEAK INSTABILITY ALONG THE SURFACE BOUNDARY IN MT/WY. EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR VALUES OF 35-50 KT ARE SUPPORTIVE OF ORGANIZED STORMS... BUT THE WEAK INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED TO LIMIT COVERAGE OF ADDITIONAL SEVERE STORMS. DRY SUB-CLOUD LAYER WITH 30 DEGREE SURFACE DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS WILL ALLOW FOR STRONG WIND GUSTS...WHILE WEAK INSTABILITY MAY SUPPORT MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL. ..PETERS.. 05/19/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...UNR...CYS...BYZ...RIW... 44480677 45110791 45760794 46160625 45700393 45150325 43490293 42400389 42680493  From mcd at goshenarc.org Fri May 19 23:35:59 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Fri, 19 May 2006 19:35:59 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 192332 SWOMCD SPC MCD 192332 KYZ000-TNZ000-ILZ000-MOZ000-IAZ000-200100- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0900 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0632 PM CDT FRI MAY 19 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...NRN/ERN MO...SW IL...WRN KY CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 192332Z - 200100Z THE AREA ACROSS NRN MO WILL BE MONITORED FOR ANY INCREASE IN SURFACE-BASED TSTM DEVELOPMENT...WHILE POTENTIAL FOR ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD INCREASE BY ABOUT 03Z TOWARD WRN KY/TN. A SEVERE TSTM WATCH STILL COULD BECOME NECESSARY THIS EVENING INTO EARLY TONIGHT. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND LOCAL PROFILER PLOTS SHOW A MID LEVEL SPEED MAX MOVING SSEWD FROM IA TOWARD NRN MO THIS EVENING. A WEAK SURFACE LOW SHOULD CONTINUE TO MOVE SEWD IN ADVANCE OF THIS SPEED MAX...ALONG A SURFACE FRONT ALIGNED ALONG THE MS RIVER. THE WARM SECTOR HAS BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE /MLCAPE VALUES NEAR 1500 J/KG/ WITH BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS OF 57-61 F AND SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE MID-UPPER 80S. HOWEVER...SOME CONVECTIVE INHIBITION PERSISTS IN ASSOCIATION WITH A VERY WARM ELEVATED MIXED LAYER. THE RECENT DEVELOPMENT OF ISOLATED DEEP CONVECTION ACROSS NW MO SUGGESTS THAT THE CAP HAS WEAKENED THIS AREA...THOUGH THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE ACROSS MO THIS EVENING IS STILL IN QUESTION. IF ADDITIONAL CONVECTION CAN FORM...THE COMBINATION OF MODERATE INSTABILITY AND STRAIGHT HODOGRAPHS WITH 0-6 KM SHEAR OF 40-50 KT APPEARS SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. THE MORE PROBABLE SCENARIO IS FOR ELEVATED CONVECTION TO DEVELOP LATER TONIGHT OVER WRN KY/TN...WHERE LOW-LEVEL WAA WILL BE ENHANCED ON THE NOSE OF A STRENGTHENING /35-50 KT/ LLJ. LARGE HAIL WOULD BE THE MAIN THREAT WITH THIS ACTIVITY. ..THOMPSON.. 05/19/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...OHX...PAH...ILX...MEG...LSX...DVN...SGF...DMX...EAX... 38878990 36798752 36128807 36328901 38089143 38599407 39249434 40159382 40749216 39709070  From mcd at goshenarc.org Sat May 20 00:51:29 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Fri, 19 May 2006 20:51:29 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 200047 SWOMCD SPC MCD 200047 IDZ000-MTZ000-ORZ000-WAZ000-200215- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0901 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0747 PM CDT FRI MAY 19 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...NORTH CENTRAL/NORTHEAST ORE AND SOUTHEAST WA INTO ID CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 364... VALID 200047Z - 200215Z VALID PORTION OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 364 CONTINUES UNTIL 04Z...WITH CONTINUED THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. MOST VIGOROUS STORMS IN SEVERE WATCH 364 ARE OCCURRING EAST OF THE RICHLAND/PASCO/KENNEWICK WA AREAS AS OF 0030Z. SMALL MCS WITH HISTORY OF STRONG DAMAGING WINDS -- INCLUDING A MEASURED 73 MPH GUST AT IRRIGON ORE...A 70 MPH GUST WEST OF HERMISTON ORE...AND A 61 MPH GUST AT PASCO/TRI-CITIES WA -- CONTINUES TO RACE EASTWARD ACROSS SOUTHEAST WA INTO AREAS NEAR/NORTH OF WALLA WALLA. GIVEN THE ORGANIZATION OF THIS CLUSTER AND DOWNSTREAM WARM/MOIST AIRMASS...A SEVERE THREAT FOR LIKELY PERSIST FOR THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO ACROSS FAR SOUTHEAST WA AND THE SNAKE RIVER VALLEY. ELSEWHERE...A MORE ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT EXISTS ACROSS WW 364 AND ADJACENT PORTIONS OF ID INTO FAR WESTERN MT. 00Z BOISE RAOB IS REPRESENTATIVE OF AROUND 900 J/KG MUCAPE IN PRESENCE OF MODERATE VERTICAL SHEAR. WHILE ISOLATED SEVERE POTENTIAL MAY CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...SEVERE POTENTIAL WILL LIKELY WANE WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. THUS WW 364 MAY ULTIMATELY BE CANCELLED PRIOR TO THE SCHEDULED 04Z EXPIRATION. ..GUYER.. 05/20/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...PIH...MSO...BOI...OTX...PDT... 47041399 46021435 44571380 43801377 42991484 43551747 44301996 46551906 47591737 48261503  From mcd at goshenarc.org Sat May 20 04:14:51 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Sat, 20 May 2006 00:14:51 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 200407 SWOMCD SPC MCD 200407 NCZ000-TNZ000-VAZ000-GAZ000-KYZ000-200430- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0902 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1107 PM CDT FRI MAY 19 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF CENTRAL KY INTO MIDDLE-ERN TN AND FAR WRN NC CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 200407Z - 200430Z WW WILL BE ISSUED SOON FOR SOUTH CENTRAL KY INTO PARTS OF MIDDLE/ERN TN AND FAR WRN NC. REGIONAL RADARS INDICATED RECENT INCREASE DURING LAST 30-40 MINUTES IN THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS KY/TN. THIS ACTIVITY IS ELEVATED TO THE ENE OF A WARM FRONT THAT EXTENDED FROM THE MID MS VALLEY ESEWD INTO MIDDLE TN TO NEAR THE TN/GA BORDER. 40-55 KT WSWLY LLJ EXTENDING INTO MIDDLE-ERN TN IS RESULTING IN STRONG LOW-LEVEL WAA AIDING IN CURRENT AND EXPECTED OVERNIGHT THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL ACROSS THE DISCUSSION AREA. AVAILABLE MUCAPE UP TO 1500 J/KG AND STRONG EFFECTIVE DEEP LAYER SHEAR /40-60 KT/ WILL CONTINUE TO BE SUPPORTIVE OF ELEVATED SUPERCELLS...WITH HAIL THE PRIMARY THREAT GIVEN STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AROUND 7.5 C/KM. ..PETERS.. 05/20/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...GSP...MRX...JKL...FFC...LMK...OHX...HUN...PAH... 35008578 36398739 37438683 37558519 36648366 36158272 34958341  From mcd at goshenarc.org Sat May 20 08:01:23 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Sat, 20 May 2006 04:01:23 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 200757 SWOMCD SPC MCD 200757 NCZ000-SCZ000-TNZ000-GAZ000-200900- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0903 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0257 AM CDT SAT MAY 20 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF MIDDLE/ERN TN INTO WRN NC CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 365... VALID 200757Z - 200900Z THROUGH 10Z...POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED SEVERE HAIL/LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS WILL EXIST WITH STRONGEST STORMS. LATEST MESOANALYSIS INDICATED WEAK LOW PRESSURE OVER FAR SERN MO WITH ATTENDANT QUASI-STATIONARY BOUNDARY EXTENDING SEWD FROM THIS FEATURE THROUGH MIDDLE TN INTO WRN NC. STRONG WAA N OF THIS BOUNDARY...DRIVEN LARGELY BY WLY 40-45 KT LLJ...APPEARS TO BE THE PRIMARY FORCING MECHANISM SUSTAINING ONGOING STORMS OVER PORTIONS OF MIDDLE AND ERN TN INTO WRN NC. RUC FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT THIS CONVECTION IS LIKELY ELEVATED WITH MOST UNSTABLE PARCELS ORIGINATING AROUND 850 MB. SUBSEQUENT STORM DEVELOPMENT WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE ALONG WRN OR NWRN FLANK OF TSTM COMPLEX OVER NRN MIDDLE TN WITHIN DEEPER CONFLUENCE ZONE DEPICTED BY VWP PLAN VIEW FIELDS AND LATEST SHORT TERM MODEL GUIDANCE. WHILE INSTABILITY IS NOT PARTICULARLY STRONG /I.E. MUCAPES OF 1000-1500 J/KG/...PRESENCE OF RELATIVELY STRONG DEEP-LAYER VERTICAL SHEAR WILL SUPPORT ORGANIZED UPDRAFTS CAPABLE OF ISOLATED SEVERE HAIL AND PERHAPS LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS. THE STRONGEST STORMS WILL LIKELY EXIST ALONG WRN EDGE OF CONVECTIVE COMPLEX OVER MIDDLE INTO ERN TN WHERE LLJ WILL MAINTAIN GREATEST INFLUX OF MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR. ..MEAD.. 05/20/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...GSP...MRX...FFC...OHX... 36218606 36498586 36518396 36178243 35698191 34988204 34758265 35048488  From mcd at goshenarc.org Sat May 20 16:43:34 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Sat, 20 May 2006 12:43:34 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 201640 SWOMCD SPC MCD 201640 SCZ000-NCZ000-GAZ000-TNZ000-ALZ000-201845- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0904 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1140 AM CDT SAT MAY 20 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...MIDDLE AND ERN TN...NERN AL...NRN GA...WRN NC/SC CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 201640Z - 201845Z PORTIONS OF THE TN VALLEY EAST TO THE SRN APPALACHIANS ARE BEING MONITORED FOR POSSIBLE WATCH IN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO. LATEST DIAGNOSTIC DATA WAS INDICATING BUILDING INSTABILITY ALONG AND SOUTH OF QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT SITUATED FROM TN SEWD ACROSS THE SRN APPALACHIANS. MEANWHILE...A CLUSTER OF WEAK TSTMS... POSSIBLY ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK LOW/MID LEVEL IMPULSE...WAS SPREADING SEWD ON THE COOL SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY. ANOTHER HOUR OR TWO OF HEATING ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR SHOULD EFFECTIVELY OVERCOME CONVECTIVE INHIBITION AND POSSIBLY FOSTER ADDITIONAL TSTM DEVELOPMENT NEAR THE FRONT AND OVER THE WARM SECTOR. WHILE MORE ROBUST FORCING REMAINS MARGINAL ACROSS THE REGION...ANY STORM THAT CAN FORM WILL DEVELOP WITHIN A MODESTLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT WHERE WEAK LOW LEVEL SWLY FLOW WILL BE TOPPED BY 40-50KT WNWLY FLOW. HEATED AND WELL MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER WILL ENHANCE DOWNDRAFT POTENTIAL WHILE EFFECTIVE SHEAR SHOULD SUSTAIN STORMS AND PROMOTE EVOLUTION INTO ORGANIZED CELLS/CLUSTERS WITH SEVERE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL INCREASING. ..CARBIN.. 05/20/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...GSP...MRX...FFC...OHX...BMX...HUN... 36188386 35768298 35378258 34968234 34538232 34118271 33868331 33518436 33758492 34458642 34748706 34908724 35438773 36148765 36288514  From mcd at goshenarc.org Sat May 20 17:46:16 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Sat, 20 May 2006 13:46:16 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 201742 SWOMCD SPC MCD 201742 MTZ000-WYZ000-IDZ000-201945- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0905 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1242 PM CDT SAT MAY 20 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTHWEST/CENTRAL MT INTO NORTHERN WY CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 201742Z - 201945Z SEVERE THREAT IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON ACROSS SOUTHWEST/CENTRAL MT INTO NORTHERN WY. PRIMARY HAZARD WILL BE LARGE HAIL...WITH DAMAGING WIND GUSTS ALSO POSSIBLE. A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MAY BE NEEDED IN THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTS WELL DEFINED SHORTWAVE IMPULSE MOVING NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS ID/WESTERN MT EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. FORCING FOR ASCENT TIED TO THIS FEATURE...AUGMENTED BY AMPLE HEATING/LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE COMPONENT...WILL LEAD TO INCREASING THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE THROUGH MID/LATE AFTERNOON FROM SOUTHWEST MT INTO CENTRAL MT/NORTHERN WY. A VERY MOIST AIRMASS EXISTS ACROSS THE REGION...WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 50S AND PW VALUES AROUND 180 PERCENT OF NORMAL PER 12Z OBSERVED RAOBS AT GREAT FALLS MT/RIVERTON WY. AS CONVECTIVE INHIBITION QUICKLY ERODES...MODIFIED 12Z RAOBS IN ACCORDANCE WITH LATEST RUC SOUNDINGS IS SUPPORTIVE OF MUCAPE VALUES OF 1500-2000 J/KG OR GREATER. COUPLED WITH MODERATE INSTABILITY/STEEP LAPSE RATES...VERTICAL SHEAR OF 35-40 KTS WILL SUPPORT SOME SUPERCELLS AND ORGANIZED MULTICELL CLUSTERS AS STORMS SPREAD NORTHEASTWARD WITH LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL. ..GUYER.. 05/20/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...BYZ...GGW...RIW...TFX...PIH...MSO... 48211133 48420805 47400696 45370667 44610675 44070787 44371054 44931213 46281262  From mcd at goshenarc.org Sat May 20 19:07:42 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Sat, 20 May 2006 15:07:42 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 201904 SWOMCD SPC MCD 201904 NCZ000-SCZ000-202030- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0906 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0204 PM CDT SAT MAY 20 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...SC...SRN NC CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 201904Z - 202030Z SEVERE STORMS MAY SPREAD EAST ACROSS PARTS OF SC AND SRN NC THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON. A NEW WATCH WILL PROBABLY BE ISSUED SHORTLY FOR AREAS EAST OF WATCH 366. CLUSTER OF SEVERE STORMS ACROSS NWRN SC...AND NEW DEVELOPMENT NEAR CLT...WOULD SUGGEST THAT SEVERE STORM THREAT MAY SPREAD EAST INTO WARM AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS ACROSS SC AND SRN NC THIS AFTERNOON. BOUNDARY LAYER ACROSS THESE AREAS WAS RECOVERING IN THE WAKE OF EARLIER MCS THAT MOVED OFF THE SC COAST THIS MORNING. RESIDUAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM THIS EARLIER CONVECTION APPEARS TO BE INTERSECTING FRONT ACROSS NWRN SC WHERE VIGOROUS STORMS HAVE PRODUCED SEVERE HAIL. STORM NEAR CLT APPEARS TO HAVE INITIATED NEAR THE FRONT/LEE TROUGH ON THE EDGE OF STRONGER INSTABILITY. ALL THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD CONTINUE TO DEVELOP EAST GIVEN STRONG WLY MEAN LAYER FLOW. UNIDIRECTIONAL SHEAR PROFILES FROM ACROSS THE REGION WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT SPLITTING CELLS WITH A HAIL AND WIND THREAT. LACK OF STRONGER LARGE SCALE FORCING MAY TEND TO LIMIT OVERALL STORM COVERAGE. HOWEVER...SOME UPSCALE DEVELOPMENT AND A MORE WIDESPREAD SEVERE THREAT COULD OCCUR IF STORMS CAN ORGANIZE ALONG LEE TROUGH/FRONT...OR WITHIN FRONTAL WAVE...POSSIBLY TRACKING EAST ACROSS THE CAROLINAS THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON. ..CARBIN.. 05/20/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...RAH...ILM...CHS...CAE...GSP... 34098230 35548166 35648070 35197913 34567863 34017872 33367953 32857989 33038042 33208086 33628148  From mcd at goshenarc.org Sat May 20 20:41:08 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Sat, 20 May 2006 16:41:08 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 202038 SWOMCD SPC MCD 202038 NCZ000-SCZ000-GAZ000-TNZ000-ALZ000-202215- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0907 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0338 PM CDT SAT MAY 20 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN TN...NERN AL...NRN GA...SRN NC...SC CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 366...368... VALID 202038Z - 202215Z NUMEROUS SUPERCELL STORMS CONTINUE TO PRODUCE LARGE HAIL ACROSS ERN TN...NRN GA...NWRN SC AND SCNTRL NC THIS AFTERNOON. THESE STORMS SHOULD CONTINUE TO SPREAD EAST/SOUTHEAST ACROSS WATCHES 366 AND 368 OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. VERY UNSTABLE AND WEAKLY CAPPED AIR MASS CONTINUES TO FUEL VIGOROUS CONVECTION ACROSS THE SRN APPALACHIANS LATE THIS AFTERNOON. MOST INTENSE ACTIVITY WAS OCCURRING COINCIDENT WITH WEAK DISTURBANCES SITUATED ALONG A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT FROM THE SRN TN/NRN GA BORDER AREA...EWD ACROSS UPSTATE SC...AND THEN NEWD TO THE NC PIEDMONT. WHILE THERE HAVE BEEN A NUMBER OF STORM SPLITS ACROSS THESE AREAS...IT APPEARS THAT MODEST WLY FLOW JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE HAS ENHANCED LOW LEVEL SHEAR AND FAVORED THE PERSISTENCE OF RIGHT-MOVING STORMS. ONE OF THE MORE PERSISTENT SUPERCELLS WAS NOW MOVING TOWARD NRN LUMPKIN COUNTY IN NERN GA. THIS CELL PRODUCED BASEBALL HAIL EARLIER OVER SERN TN. ON ITS CURRENT TRACK THIS STORM MAY PRODUCE SEVERE WEATHER IN PARTS OF HALL COUNTY BEFORE 22Z/6PM EDT. ADDITIONAL STORMS DEVELOPING WEST OF THIS STORM MAY BEGIN TO MOVE OUT OF WATCH 366 OVER THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS. THIS MAY REQUIRE A NEW WATCH...OR LOCAL EXTENSION OF WATCH 366...ACROSS PORTIONS OF NRN GA. ..CARBIN.. 05/20/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...RAH...ILM...CHS...CAE...GSP...MRX...FFC...OHX...HUN... 32677959 32118086 33808234 34288335 34608567 35908557 36058448 35648175 34427822 33377823  From mcd at goshenarc.org Sat May 20 20:58:54 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Sat, 20 May 2006 16:58:54 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 202053 SWOMCD SPC MCD 202053 MTZ000-WYZ000-202300- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0908 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0353 PM CDT SAT MAY 20 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...WESTERN/CENTRAL MT AND NORTHERN WY CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 367... VALID 202053Z - 202300Z SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 367 CONTINUES UNTIL 02Z...WITH CONTINUED THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL/STRONG WIND GUSTS ACROSS WESTERN/CENTRAL MT AND NORTHERN WY. MONITORING FOR AN ADDITIONAL WATCH ISSUANCE ACROSS FAR SOUTHEAST MT/NORTHEAST WY AND PERHAPS EAST CENTRAL WY. THE STRONGEST STORMS IN/NEAR WW 367 ARE OCCURRING AT THIS TIME ACROSS SOUTHEAST MT BETWEEN BILLINGS AND MILES CITY...WITH A RELATIVELY WELL ORGANIZED MCS ABOUT 70 MILES SE OF BILLINGS AS OF 2045Z. IN ADDITION TO LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WIND THREAT MAY INCREASE IN THE SHORT TERM ACROSS SOUTHEAST MT GIVEN THE APPARENT COLD POOL/MCS ORGANIZATION. ADDITIONAL STRONG/SEVERE STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED IN THE BIGHORN BASIN OF NORTH CENTRAL WY NEAR GREYBULL/WORLAND. THESE STORMS...AS WELL AS ADDITIONAL STORMS ACROSS SOUTHWEST MT...WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD EAST-NORTHEAST DURING THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AIDED BY WESTERN MT SHORTWAVE TROUGH PER WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. A RATHER MOIST/MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIRMASS WITH UPPER 40S/LOWER 50S F DEWPOINTS IN PRESENCE OF 35-40 KTS OF VERTICAL SHEAR WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT A LARGE HAIL/STRONG WIND GUST THREAT. SOUTH OF WW 367...MONITORING FOR AN ADDITIONAL WATCH ISSUANCE ACROSS FAR SOUTHEAST MT/NORTHEAST WY AND PERHAPS EAST CENTRAL WY. STORMS WILL LIKELY POSE AT LEAST AN ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT AS THEY DEVELOP EASTWARD INTO THE EASTERN WY PLAINS WHERE AN UNSTABLE AIRMASS EXISTS. ..GUYER.. 05/20/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...UNR...CYS...BYZ...GGW...RIW...TFX... 45281173 46621215 47571134 47410893 45880465 43590432 41210468 43430845 44251037  From mcd at goshenarc.org Sat May 20 21:46:29 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Sat, 20 May 2006 17:46:29 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 202143 SWOMCD SPC MCD 202142 WYZ000-UTZ000-IDZ000-NVZ000-202345- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0909 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0442 PM CDT SAT MAY 20 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...FAR WESTERN WY/SOUTHEAST ID/FAR NORTHERN UT/NORTHEAST NV CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 202142Z - 202345Z AN ISOLATED LARGE HAIL/STRONG WIND GUST THREAT WILL EXIST IN A CORRIDOR FROM FAR WESTERN WY/SOUTHEAST ID INTO FAR NORTHERN UT AND NORTHEAST NV INTO EARLY EVENING. AS CU FIELD/THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO BUILD THIS AFTERNOON...OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS DEPICTS AN AXIS OF MODERATE INSTABILITY FROM THE NORTHEAST GREAT BASIN OF NV INTO THE MOUNTAINS OF FAR WESTERN WY...ALL WITHIN A BELT OF MODERATELY STRONG SOUTHWEST MID LEVEL FLOW. WARM TEMPERATURES/AMPLE INSOLATION COUPLED WITH A RATHER MOIST AIRMASS/HIGH PRECIP WATER ENVIRONMENT PER 12Z OBSERVED RAOBS FROM ELKO/BOISE/RIVERTON/SALT LAKE CITY ARE SUPPORTIVE OF MOST UNSTABLE CAPE VALUES OF 1500-2000 J/KG OR GREATER. IT APPEARS AN ISOLATED LARGE HAIL/STRONG WIND GUST THREAT WILL EXIST WITH THE MORE ROBUST STORMS INTO EARLY EVENING...HOWEVER A WATCH ISSUANCE SHOULD NOT BE NEEDED. ..GUYER.. 05/20/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...RIW...SLC...PIH...BOI...LKN... 43991102 44040986 43130962 41831158 40361528 41361585 42041538 42761280  From mcd at goshenarc.org Sat May 20 22:49:16 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Sat, 20 May 2006 18:49:16 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 202245 SWOMCD SPC MCD 202245 NCZ000-SCZ000-GAZ000-TNZ000-ALZ000-MSZ000-ARZ000-210015- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0910 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0545 PM CDT SAT MAY 20 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...TN/NRN AL/NRN GA/NC/SC CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 366...368... VALID 202245Z - 210015Z THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS WW/S 366 AND 368. MAIN BAROCLINIC ZONE IN THE FORM OF A COLD FRONT EXTENDED FROM FAR SERN VA SWWD THROUGH CENTRAL NC TO ALONG THE BORDER REGION OF SW NC/SC AND NC/GA. THIS BOUNDARY THEN EXTENDED WNWWD AS A QUASI- STATIONARY FRONT THROUGH MIDDLE/WRN TN TO FAR NRN AR. MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS EXTENDING ALONG/IN THE VICINITY OF THIS BAROCLINIC ZONE AND INTO SC COMBINED WITH STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WITH RIGHT-MOVING SUPERCELLS BEING THE FAVORED STORM TO SUSTAIN A SEVERE THREAT. REGIONAL RADARS INDICATED THE STRONGEST STORMS WERE MOVING THROUGH THE FAR ERN PARTS OF WW 366 /SOUTH CENTRAL NC/ AND ACROSS MUCH OF 368...WHILE NEW TSTM DEVELOPMENT WAS UNDERWAY OVER SRN MIDDLE TN IN THE WRN PART OF WW 366. THIS NEW ACTIVITY APPEARS TO BE AIDED BY INCREASING LARGE SCALE ASCENT SPREADING SEWD INTO MIDDLE TN ASSOCIATED WITH APPROACHING SHORT WAVE TROUGH NOW LOCATED OVER THE MID MS VALLEY. AS THIS MID LEVEL IMPULSE APPROACHES MIDDLE TN... ADDITIONAL STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ACTIVITY LIKELY TRACKING SEWD INTO SERN TN/NRN GA. LARGE HAIL/STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL REMAIN THE PRIMARY SEVERE THREATS. WWD EXTENT OF SEVERE POTENTIAL INTO WRN TN IS MORE CONDITIONAL.. GIVEN THE CLOUDINESS WITH THE APPROACHING IMPULSE AND STRONGER INHIBITION LIMITING POTENTIAL FOR ASCENT/STORM DEVELOPMENT. IN ADDITION...WEAKER DEEP LAYER SHEAR EVIDENT OVER PARTS OF WRN TN INTO AR MAY MINIMIZE LIKELIHOOD FOR STORM ORGANIZATION. AIR MASS ALONG/E OF COLD FRONT IN CENTRAL/ERN NC IS MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH EFFECTIVE DEEP LAYER SHEAR SUPPORTIVE OF AN ORGANIZED SEVERE THREAT. CURRENT TRENDS IN RADAR IMAGERY SUGGEST AN ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT WILL CONTINUE TO EXIST N OF WW 368 WITH RIGHT-MOVING STORMS TENDING TO TRACK SEWD ALONG/NEAR THE NRN PERIPHERY OF WW 368. THUS...A NEW WW DOES NOT APPEAR WARRANTED ACROSS NC. ..PETERS.. 05/20/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MHX...RAH...ILM...CHS...CAE...GSP...MRX...FFC...OHX...BMX...HUN...MEG... 35979063 36008866 36048709 36288647 36088416 35628137 35728019 35687799 34907739 34227735 33547793 31848059 33918198 34598606 34988863 35069065 35579093  From mcd at goshenarc.org Sat May 20 23:20:16 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Sat, 20 May 2006 19:20:16 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 202317 SWOMCD SPC MCD 202317 OKZ000-TXZ000-210115- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0911 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0617 PM CDT SAT MAY 20 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...EASTERN TX PANHANDLE/NORTHWEST OK CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 202317Z - 210115Z POTENTIAL FOR DRY MICROBURSTS WILL EXIST FROM THE FAR EASTERN TX PANHANDLE INTO NORTHWEST OK OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. A WATCH IS NOT ANTICIPATED. ALONG A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY FROM THE TX PANHANDLE INTO FAR NORTHERN OK...A STORM HAS RECENTLY DEVELOPED/INTENSIFIED ACROSS HARPER COUNTY IN NORTHWEST OK AS OF 23Z...WITH ADDITIONAL STORMS ACROSS THE EASTERN TX PANHANDLE. NEAR STORM ENVIRONMENT AHEAD OF THIS ACTIVITY IS CHARACTERIZED BY A DEEPLY MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR 100 F. MODEST VERTICAL SHEAR AND INVERTED-V PROFILE BELOW 600 MB WILL SUPPORT POTENTIAL FOR STRONG DOWNDRAFTS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...WITH DCAPE OF 1200-1500 J/KG PER RUC DIAGNOSTICS. ISOLATED LARGE HAIL MAY ALSO BE POSSIBLE. ..GUYER.. 05/20/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...OUN...AMA... 35410055 36490024 36899740 36109773 35239993  From mcd at goshenarc.org Sat May 20 23:35:14 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Sat, 20 May 2006 19:35:14 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 202332 SWOMCD SPC MCD 202331 ALZ000-TNZ000-MSZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-210000- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0912 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0631 PM CDT SAT MAY 20 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...NERN AR/WRN-MIDDLE TN/FAR NRN MS/FAR NWRN AL CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 202331Z - 210000Z NEW WW BEING CONSIDERED FOR NERN AR INTO WRN TN/NRN MS. THUNDERSTORMS HAVE RECENTLY DEVELOPED ACROSS NRN AR /IZARD COUNTY/ AND FAR WRN TN /LAUDERDALE AND HAYWOOD COUNTIES/ ALONG THE QAUSI-STATIONARY BOUNDARY. OBJECTIVE ANALYSES INDICATED THE INHIBITION HAS BEEN WEAKENING ALONG THIS BOUNDARY WITH INSTABILITY REMAINING MODERATELY UNSTABLE /MLCAPE UP TO 2000 J/KG/. THIS REGION IS LOCATED ALONG THE SRN PERIPHERY OF STRONGER FLOW ALOFT...WITH SUFFICIENT DEEP LAYER SHEAR FOR STORM ORGANIZATION DECREASING WITH SWD EXTENT INTO ERN AR AND NRN MS. THUS...SEVERE POTENTIAL IS EXPECTED TO BE WITHIN A NARROW AXIS ALONG THE SURFACE BOUNDARY. IN ADDITION TO THREAT FOR HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS...HEAVY RAINFALL RATES WILL BE POSSIBLE AS STORMS TRACK EWD WITHIN HIGH PW AIR MASS. ..PETERS.. 05/20/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...OHX...HUN...MEG...LZK...SGF... 35059025 35479184 35939262 36479277 36509176 36268997 36028849 35698667 34698664 34838867  From mcd at goshenarc.org Sun May 21 00:07:30 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Sat, 20 May 2006 20:07:30 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 210004 SWOMCD SPC MCD 210004 MTZ000-WYZ000-210130- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0913 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0704 PM CDT SAT MAY 20 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTH CENTRAL/EASTERN MT AND NORTHEAST WY CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 367... VALID 210004Z - 210130Z VALID PORTION OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 367 CONTINUES ACROSS MT/FAR NORTHERN WY UNTIL 02Z...WITH CONTINUED THREAT FOR ISOLATED LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. RELATIVELY WELL ORGANIZED LINE OF STRONG STORMS/MCS IS MOVING EAST-NORTHEAST ACROSS EAST CENTRAL MT AT THIS TIME...FROM WESTERN GARFIELD COUNTY INTO PHILLIPS COUNTY AS OF 2345Z. ALTHOUGH SHORT TERM SEVERE THREAT MAY REMAIN...THIS LINE OF STORMS WILL QUICKLY WEAKEN AS THEY PROGRESS EAST OF THE FRONT INTO A COOLER/MORE STABLE AIRMASS PER NIL CAPE/STRONG CINH EVIDENT IN 00Z OBSERVED GLASGOW RAOB. FARTHER SOUTH...AN ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT WILL ALSO PERSIST OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO FROM SOUTH CENTRAL MT INTO NORTHEAST WY...WHERE THE AIRMASS REMAINS WEAKLY TO MODERATELY UNSTABLE OUTSIDE OF CONVECTIVE OUTFLOWS /NAMELY ACROSS FAR SOUTHEAST MT INTO NORTHEAST WY/. INDICATIONS ARE THAT WW 367 WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AS SCHEDULED AT 02Z WITH A DIMINISHING SEVERE THREAT VIA LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AND/OR CONVECTIVELY OVERTURNED BOUNDARY LAYER. ..GUYER.. 05/21/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...UNR...BYZ...GGW...RIW...TFX... 45291028 46310971 47570896 48710895 48660696 47660549 46260455 43630418 43720564 44800734 45020857  From mcd at goshenarc.org Sun May 21 00:50:52 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Sat, 20 May 2006 20:50:52 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 210048 SWOMCD SPC MCD 210047 NCZ000-SCZ000-TNZ000-GAZ000-ALZ000-210115- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0914 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0747 PM CDT SAT MAY 20 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN TN/PARTS OF WRN-SWRN NC/WRN SC/NRN GA/NERN AL CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 366... VALID 210047Z - 210115Z WW 366 IS SCHEDULED TO EXPIRE AT 01Z. HOWEVER...SEVERE THREAT IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST BEYOND 01Z ACROSS FAR SERN TN/NRN GA AND NERN AL...GIVEN ONGOING ACTIVITY OVER THIS REGION. IN ADDITION... UPSTREAM STORMS ALONG THE SURFACE BOUNDARY IN SRN PARTS OF WRN/MIDDLE TN EXPECTED TO TRACK ESEWD INTO NERN AL/FAR SERN TN/NRN GA LATER THIS EVENING...POSING A SEVERE THREAT AS WELL ACROSS THIS AREA. AIR MASS ALONG THE QUASI-STATIONARY BOUNDARY REMAINS MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH THE APPROACH OF THE MID MS VALLEY MID LEVEL IMPULSE AIDING IN STORM ORGANIZATION/SEVERE THREAT TO PERSIST THROUGH THE EVENING. MEANWHILE...AIR MASS OVER WRN PARTS OF NC/SC INTO MUCH OF ERN TN APPEARS TO HAVE BEEN STABILIZED BY EARLIER ACTIVITY...THUS LIMITING AN ADDITIONAL SEVERE THREAT ACROSS THESE PARTS OF TN/NC/SC. ..PETERS.. 05/21/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...RAH...CAE...GSP...MRX...FFC...OHX...BMX...HUN... 34478663 35358649 36208460 36068299 35548041 34938033 34588106 34168176 33798171 34318607  From mcd at goshenarc.org Sun May 21 01:38:57 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Sat, 20 May 2006 21:38:57 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 210135 SWOMCD SPC MCD 210135 NCZ000-SCZ000-210230- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0915 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0835 PM CDT SAT MAY 20 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN SC/CENTRAL-ERN NC CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 368... VALID 210135Z - 210230Z SEVERE THREAT EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DECREASING ACROSS VALID PART OF WW 368 AND AREAS N OF THIS WW OVER CENTRAL/ERN NC. AIR MASS ACROSS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL/ERN CAROLINAS CONTINUES TO STABILIZE IN THE WAKE OF EARLIER CONVECTION AND WITH THE ONSET OF DIABATIC COOLING. SEVERE STORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE ACROSS NERN SC AND ERN HALF OF NC THROUGH ABOUT 03Z...WHERE EFFECTIVE DEEP LAYER SHEAR CONTINUES TO SUPPORT STORM ORGANIZATION. HOWEVER...DECREASING INSTABILITY SUGGESTS ADDITIONAL SEVERE THREAT SHOULD REMAIN ISOLATED. ..PETERS.. 05/21/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MHX...RAH...ILM...CHS...CAE... 33458019 34388010 34877983 35067952 35347941 35847961 35937809 35427594 34717609 34237722 33387808 32917879  From mcd at goshenarc.org Sun May 21 02:31:49 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Sat, 20 May 2006 22:31:49 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 210228 SWOMCD SPC MCD 210228 TNZ000-ALZ000-MSZ000-KYZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-210330- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0916 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0928 PM CDT SAT MAY 20 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...SERN MO/NERN AR/WRN-MIDDLE TN/FAR NRN MS/FAR NWRN AL CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 370... VALID 210228Z - 210330Z SEVERE THREAT TO CONTINUE ACROSS WW 370 AS NEW STORMS DEVELOP TO THE NW OF THIS WW IN SERN MO/FAR NERN AR/FAR NWRN TN AND TRACK SEWD INTO WW 370. STORMS THAT DEVELOPED EARLIER ALONG THE SURFACE BOUNDARY IN SW TN HAVE MOVED ESE INTO SRN MIDDLE TN...WHILE THE WRN MOST STORM ASSOCIATED WITH THIS ACTIVITY HAS MOVED INTO THE WRN PART OF WW 371. MORE RECENT STORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS SERN MO INTO FAR NWRN TN IS LIKELY ELEVATED. ADDITIONAL ELEVATED DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE AS WAA REGIME IS EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN ACROSS SRN MO/NRN AR INTO WRN TN AS SWLY LLJ EXTENDING INTO THIS REGION INCREASES PER TRENDS IN RECENT WSR-88D VWPS AND SUGGESTED BY 00Z RUC. LARGE HAIL SHOULD BE THE PRIMARY THREAT...THOUGH STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE. ..PETERS.. 05/21/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...OHX...HUN...PAH...MEG...LZK...SGF... 34929110 36419134 37009095 36909011 36258787 35998649 34438691  From mcd at goshenarc.org Sun May 21 04:36:00 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Sun, 21 May 2006 00:36:00 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 210433 SWOMCD SPC MCD 210432 NCZ000-SCZ000-GAZ000-TNZ000-ALZ000-KYZ000-MSZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-210600- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0917 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1132 PM CDT SAT MAY 20 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...FAR SERN MO/FAR NERN AR/WRN-SRN TN/NRN AL/NRN GA/FAR WRN AND FAR SERN NC/NRN SC CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 370...371... VALID 210432Z - 210600Z THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH 06-07Z ACROSS WW/S 370 AND 371. SHORT WAVE TROUGH AIDING ASCENT WAS LOCATED ACROSS KY AT 04Z PER WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...WITH ACCOMPANYING 50 KT WNWLY MID LEVEL JET NOW LOCATED OVER SWRN KY-ERN TN. IN ADDITION...A 25-35 KT WLY LLJ EXTENDING FROM AR INTO WRN TN/NRN MS/NRN AL IS MAINTAINING A WAA REGIME FOR ASCENT/THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ALONG/N OF QUASI- STATIONARY BOUNDARY WHICH EXTENDED FROM NRN AR TO SRN TN/NRN GA. EFFECTIVE DEEP LAYER SHEAR REMAINS SUFFICIENT FOR STORM ORGANIZATION...WITH MARGINAL INSTABILITY LOCATED ACROSS ERN PARTS OF WW 370 AND ALL OF WW 371. FARTHER W...NEW STORMS MAY CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS SERN MO INTO WRN PART OF WW 370...BEING FED BY RESERVOIR OF STRONGER INSTABILITY LOCATED OVER NRN AR/ERN OK. FARTHER E...LARGE SCALE ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACHING KY MID LEVEL IMPULSE WILL MAINTAIN POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT ACROSS NRN SC/SERN NC. HOWEVER...WEAK INSTABILITY AND SHEAR SHOULD LIMIT SEVERE THREAT. ..PETERS.. 05/21/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...RAH...ILM...CAE...GSP...MRX...FFC...OHX...BMX...HUN...PAH...MEG... 34538788 35449013 36619015 36858959 35708611 35628421 34998311 34927984 34667792 33957847 33577923 33788165 34008360 34208617  From mcd at goshenarc.org Sun May 21 04:57:06 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Sun, 21 May 2006 00:57:06 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 210453 SWOMCD SPC MCD 210453 MOZ000-ARZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-210630- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0918 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1153 PM CDT SAT MAY 20 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...SE KS...SRN MO CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 210453Z - 210630Z ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS MAY EXPAND IN COVERAGE ACROSS SE KS/SRN MO THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. THIS AREA WILL BE MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE WW IN THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS. LOCAL VWP AND PROFILER WINDS SHOW PRONOUNCED WAA ACROSS SE KS AND SRN MO...N OF A STATIONARY SURFACE FRONT ACROSS NRN OK AND NRN AR. A FEED OF MODERATE INSTABILITY /MUCAPE VALUES AROUND 1500-2000 J/KG/ FROM THE SW AND EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR IN EXCESS OF 40 KT MAY SUPPORT A FEW SUPERCELLS BASED NEAR 850 MB ACROSS THE DISCUSSION AREA...WHICH WILL TEND TO LOCALLY ENHANCE THE LARGE HAIL THREAT. IF THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE AND INTENSITY CONTINUE TO INCREASE...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MAY BECOME NECESSARY IN THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO ACROSS THE SE KS AND SRN MO AREA. ..THOMPSON.. 05/21/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...PAH...MEG...LSX...LZK...SGF...EAX...TSA...TOP...ICT... 36748988 36249004 36479212 36999520 37349714 37879800 38359777 38469645 37609304 37019037  From mcd at goshenarc.org Sun May 21 16:55:23 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Sun, 21 May 2006 12:55:23 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 211652 SWOMCD SPC MCD 211652 COR SCZ000-NCZ000-GAZ000-211745- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0919 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1152 AM CDT SUN MAY 21 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...NERN GA...SC...SRN NC CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 211652Z - 211745Z CORRECTED NRN NC TO SRN NC FIRST SENTENCE A SEVERE TSTM WATCH MAY BE NEEDED SHORTLY FOR PARTS OF NERN GA...MUCH OF SC AND POSSIBLY PARTS OF NC. CLUSTER OF TSTMS DEVELOPING ESEWD FROM ERN TN AND NERN GA WILL MOVE INTO INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS ACROSS SC AND SRN NC THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. ACTIVITY WAS CURRENTLY INCREASING WHERE LIFT ALONG LEADING CONVECTIVE COLD POOL WAS FOCUSED ALONG RESIDUAL QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDING EWD ACROSS NRN SC. LEE TROUGH ALSO APPEARS TO BE SHARPENING ALONG THE ERN SLOPES OF THE APPALACHIANS AND INTERSECTS THE STATIONARY FRONT OVER NWRN SC. THIS AREA COULD FURTHER PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR TSTM DEVELOPMENT. FRONTAL ZONE LIES ALONG THE SRN EDGE OF STRONGER MID LEVEL FLOW AND HAS ALSO FOCUSED GREATER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. COMBINATION OF SHEAR AND INCREASING INSTABILITY...COUPLED WITH APPROACH OF CONVECTIVE COMPLEX FROM NERN GA...SHOULD RESULT IN AN INCREASE IN TSTM COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. ENVIRONMENT APPEARS TO SUGGEST ORGANIZED MULTICELL STORMS WITH SEVERE HAIL AND POSSIBLY SCATTERED DAMAGING WINDS SPREADING EAST ACROSS NRN SC...AND PERHAPS NEAR THE SRN NC BORDER AREA...THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. ..CARBIN.. 05/21/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...RAH...ILM...CHS...CAE...GSP...FFC... 34207914 33287984 33938225 34378374 35128309 35518275 34467909  From mcd at goshenarc.org Sun May 21 16:55:52 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Sun, 21 May 2006 12:55:52 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 211651 SWOMCD SPC MCD 211650 SCZ000-NCZ000-GAZ000-211745- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0919 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1150 AM CDT SUN MAY 21 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...NERN GA...SC...SRN NC CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 211650Z - 211745Z A SEVERE TSTM WATCH MAY BE NEEDED SHORTLY FOR PARTS OF NERN GA...MUCH OF SC AND POSSIBLY PARTS OF NC. CLUSTER OF TSTMS DEVELOPING ESEWD FROM ERN TN AND NERN GA WILL MOVE INTO INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS ACROSS SC AND NRN NC THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. ACTIVITY WAS CURRENTLY INCREASING WHERE LIFT ALONG LEADING CONVECTIVE COLD POOL WAS FOCUSED ALONG RESIDUAL QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDING EWD ACROSS NRN SC. LEE TROUGH ALSO APPEARS TO BE SHARPENING ALONG THE ERN SLOPES OF THE APPALACHIANS AND INTERSECTS THE STATIONARY FRONT OVER NWRN SC. THIS AREA COULD FURTHER PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR TSTM DEVELOPMENT. FRONTAL ZONE LIES ALONG THE SRN EDGE OF STRONGER MID LEVEL FLOW AND HAS ALSO FOCUSED GREATER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. COMBINATION OF SHEAR AND INCREASING INSTABILITY...COUPLED WITH APPROACH OF CONVECTIVE COMPLEX FROM NERN GA...SHOULD RESULT IN AN INCREASE IN TSTM COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. ENVIRONMENT APPEARS TO SUGGEST ORGANIZED MULTICELL STORMS WITH SEVERE HAIL AND POSSIBLY SCATTERED DAMAGING WINDS SPREADING EAST ACROSS NRN SC...AND PERHAPS NEAR THE SRN NC BORDER AREA...THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. ..CARBIN.. 05/21/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...RAH...ILM...CHS...CAE...GSP...FFC... 34207914 33287984 33938225 34378374 35128309 35518275 34467909  From mcd at goshenarc.org Sun May 21 19:23:33 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Sun, 21 May 2006 15:23:33 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 211920 SWOMCD SPC MCD 211920 NEZ000-SDZ000-COZ000-WYZ000-212115- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0920 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0220 PM CDT SUN MAY 21 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...EASTERN WY/WESTERN NEB/FAR SOUTHWEST SD/FAR NORTHEAST CO CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 211920Z - 212115Z AT LEAST AN ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON AS STORMS DEVELOP EASTWARD FROM THE EASTERN WY/CO FRONT RANGE INTO WESTERN NEB/FAR SOUTHWEST SD/NORTHEAST CO. ALTHOUGH QUESTIONS REMAIN REGARDING POTENTIAL SEVERITY/EXTENT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH COULD BE NEEDED BY 20Z-21Z. EXTENSIVE CUMULUS CONTINUES TO STEADILY BUILD ACROSS THE CO/WY MOUNTAINS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...WITH RECENT THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT FROM NEAR DOUGLAS TO CHEYENNE WY. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SUGGESTS ONE OR MORE SUBTLE IMPULSES MAY BE EMBEDDED WITHIN BELT OF MODERATE FLOW AMIDST UPPER RIDGE. WITH TIME...STORMS APPEAR LIKELY TO DEVELOP/SPREAD EASTWARD ACROSS FAR EASTERN WY/NORTHEAST CO AND EVENTUALLY INTO FAR SOUTHWEST SD/WESTERN NEB BY LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING. POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST ISOLATED SEVERE SHOULD INCREASE ACCORDINGLY AS STRONG INSOLATION AND GENERAL MAINTENENCE OF LOWER 50S F DEWPOINTS CONTRIBUTE TO MODERATE INSTABILITY ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. LATEST RUC GUIDANCE SUGGESTS POTENTIAL FOR 1000-1250 J/KG MLCAPE LATER THIS AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH INITIALLY RATHER WEAK...VERTICAL SHEAR WILL LIKELY INCREASE AS EASTERLY LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE COMPONENT INCREASES BY LATE AFTERNOON. ADEQUATE DEGREE OF INSTABILITY/SHEAR MAY BE SUPPORTIVE OF SOME SUPERCELL STRUCTURES...ALTHOUGH ORGANIZED MULTICELL CLUSTERS SHOULD BE PREDOMINANT. LARGE HAIL WILL LIKELY BE THE PRIMARY HAZARD INITIALLY...WITH POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WINDS ALSO DEVELOPING LATER THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING VIA COLD POOLS /GIVEN LARGE T-TD SPREADS/ AND POTENTIAL ORGANIZATION OF ONE OR MORE MCS CLUSTERS. ..GUYER.. 05/21/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LBF...UNR...BOU...CYS... 43970485 44140405 42450174 41000215 40630410 42670480  From mcd at goshenarc.org Sun May 21 19:42:33 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Sun, 21 May 2006 15:42:33 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 211939 SWOMCD SPC MCD 211939 NCZ000-SCZ000-212045- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0921 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0239 PM CDT SUN MAY 21 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...SC...SERN NC CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 372... VALID 211939Z - 212045Z SEVERE THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS VALID PORTION OF WW AHEAD OF CURRENT STORM CLUSTER...WITH POTENTIAL EVOLUTION TO A MORE WIDESPREAD WIND DAMAGE THREAT/BOW ECHO DURING THE NEXT HOUR. AREAS WEST OF THIS ACTIVITY MAY BE DROPPED FROM CURRENT WATCH GIVEN CONVECTIVE STABILIZATION IN WAKE OF THESE STORMS. AREAS EAST OF THE WATCH TO THE SC/SERN NC COAST WILL NEED ADDITIONAL WATCH IN THE NEXT HOUR. PERSISTENT CLUSTER OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES TO MOVE/EVOLVE QUICKLY ESEWD ACROSS UPSTATE SC THIS AFTERNOON. ACTIVITY HAS A HISTORY OF LARGE HAIL...WITH LATEST RADAR/SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATING OTHER RAPID DEVELOPMENT CONTINUING TO ADVANCE THIS BROKEN CLUSTER OF STORMS ESEWD ACROSS REMAINDER OF WW DURING THE NEXT 1-1.5 HOURS. STRONG HEATING AND LARGE T-TD SPREADS IN ADVANCE OF THIS ACTIVITY SUGGESTS WIND DAMAGE THREAT WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD INTO THE CENTRAL SC...INCLUDING THE CAE AREA... AROUND 2030Z. THIS IS RECENTLY EVIDENCED BY INCREASE IN WIND DAMAGE REPORTS OVER THE PAST HALF-HOUR. EXTRAPOLATION USING CURRENT MOTION OF 290/45KT PLACES LEADING ACTIVITY EAST OF WW BY 2130Z. WITH PREVAILING WLY SURFACE WINDS...SEA BREEZE WILL REMAIN NEARER THE COAST AND ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO WARM TO NEAR 90F ACROSS ERN SC AND SERN NC AHEAD OF THIS ACTIVITY. GIVEN DEGREE OF HEATING AND MODERATE INSTABILITY...SEVERE THREAT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ESEWD ACROSS THE NERN SC/SERN NC COAST EARLY THIS EVENING. THUS...WW WILL BE NEEDED IN THE NEXT HOUR. ..EVANS.. 05/21/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MHX...RAH...ILM...CHS...CAE...GSP... 33028108 33548198 34338242 35098173 35047988 34867833 34497771 33827786 32947888 32857992  From mcd at goshenarc.org Sun May 21 19:47:40 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Sun, 21 May 2006 15:47:40 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 211945 SWOMCD SPC MCD 211944 MAZ000-CTZ000-NYZ000-212115- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0922 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0244 PM CDT SUN MAY 21 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN NY...WRN MA/CT CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 211944Z - 212115Z ISOLATED TSTMS HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG STRONG COLD FRONT MOVING RAPIDLY EWD ACROSS THE HUDSON VALLEY. SMALL HAIL AND LOCALLY HIGHER WIND GUSTS MAY ACCOMPANY A FEW OF THE STRONGER UPDRAFTS BUT AREAL EXTENT OF THE SEVERE WEATHER CURRENTLY APPEARS TOO LIMITED FOR A SEVERE TSTM WATCH. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS CLEAR SLOT HAS DEVELOPED AHEAD OF STRONG COLD FRONT FROM THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY NEWD TO THE BERKSHIRES OF WRN MA. WHILE AIR MASS IN THIS ZONE WAS ONLY WEAKLY UNSTABLE... STRONG FRONTAL CIRCULATION AND STEEPENING MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ASSOCIATED WITH POTENT MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH APPEAR TO BE SUPPORTING THE DEVELOPMENT OF MORE VIGOROUS UPRIGHT CONVECTION AND AN INCREASE IN LIGHTNING ACTIVITY. WIND GUSTS TO NEAR SEVERE LEVELS...AND PERHAPS SOME SMALL HAIL...ARE POSSIBLE AS THESE STORMS DEVELOP EWD ACROSS PARTS OF THE MID/LOWER HUDSON VALLEY AND WRN MA/NWRN CT OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. ..CARBIN.. 05/21/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...BOX...OKX...ALY...BGM... 42587191 41547323 41167413 41367462 41907411 42657305  From mcd at goshenarc.org Sun May 21 19:52:24 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Sun, 21 May 2006 15:52:24 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 211949 SWOMCD SPC MCD 211949 ARZ000-MOZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-212145- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0923 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0249 PM CDT SUN MAY 21 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...SERN KS....NERN OK...SWRN MO...NRN AR CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 211949Z - 212145Z THE PROSPECTS FOR ORGANIZED DEEP SURFACE-BASED CONVECTION APPEAR TO BE IMPROVING ACROSS PARTS OF SERN KS EWD/SEWD ACROSS THE OZARKS OF MO/AR THIS AFTERNOON. A SEVERE TSTM WATCH MAY BE ISSUED FOR PARTS OF THE REGION WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO. WARM/MOIST AIR MASS FROM OK/KS EWD ACROSS SRN MO AND NRN AR WAS CONTINUING TO GRADUALLY DESTABILIZE UNDER PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES THIS AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE...DEEP-LAYER FRONTAL ZONE ASSOCIATED WITH VIGOROUS NERN U.S. SHORT WAVE TROUGH WAS SETTLING SWD INTO SWRN MO...BUT BECOMES INCREASINGLY DIFFUSE WITH WWD EXTENT ACROSS KS WHERE GREATER CLOUD COVER AND MID LEVEL MCV ARE DISRUPTING LOW LEVEL FLOW/THERMAL FIELD. COMBINATION OF DEEP LAYER FRONTAL FORCING AND LIFT/CONTINUING DESTABILIZATION ASSOCIATED WITH EWD MOVING MCV AND DIURNAL HEATING ARE EXPECTED TO PROMOTE SURFACE-BASED TSTM DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. MUCH OF THE REGION LIES BENEATH THE SRN EDGE OF MODEST /30KT/ WNWLY MID LEVEL FLOW. WEAK LOW LEVEL TURNING AND FLOW ARE RESULTING IN ADEQUATE SHEAR FOR SUPERCELLS BASED ON SGF VWP AND RAOB DATA. THUS...THE CHANCES FOR LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS SHOULD INCREASE AS STORMS FORM ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. ..CARBIN.. 05/21/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LZK...SGF...TSA...ICT... 36379473 36559544 36639659 37579665 37789469 37399174 36049174  From mcd at goshenarc.org Sun May 21 20:16:32 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Sun, 21 May 2006 16:16:32 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 212010 SWOMCD SPC MCD 212009 MTZ000-WYZ000-212215- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0924 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0309 PM CDT SUN MAY 21 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...NORTHEAST WY/SOUTHEAST MT CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 212009Z - 212215Z AN ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT APPEARS LIKELY ACROSS NORTHEAST WY/SOUTHEAST MT THIS AFTERNOON. PRIMARY HAZARD WOULD BE LARGE HAIL...WITH STRONG WIND GUSTS ALSO POSSIBLE. A WATCH IS NOT ANTICIPATED. SATELLITE IMAGERY/VOLUMETRIC RADAR DATA DEPICTS STORMS BUILDING ALONG/JUST EAST OF THE BIGHORNS IN NORTHEAST WY...WITH ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT OCCURRING ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL WY. WARM AND MOIST /UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S SFC DEWPOINTS/ NATURE OF AMBIENT AIRMASS IS CONTRIBUTING TO MLCAPE VALUES OF 1500 J/KG IN A CORRIDOR ACROSS FAR SOUTHEAST MT AND FAR NORTHEAST WY. GIVEN THE DEGREE OF INSTABILITY AND EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR AROUND 30 KTS /AIDED BY SOUTHEASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW/...IT APPEARS THE STRONGER STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL/STRONG WIND GUSTS THIS AFTERNOON. ANTICIPATED ISOLATED NATURE OF THE SEVERE THREAT WILL LIKELY PRECLUDE A WATCH ISSUANCE. ..GUYER.. 05/21/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...UNR...BYZ...RIW... 45020442 43670443 44420781 45141017 46210927 46080683 45580494  From mcd at goshenarc.org Sun May 21 20:18:38 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Sun, 21 May 2006 16:18:38 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 212013 SWOMCD SPC MCD 212012 GAZ000-TNZ000-ALZ000-MSZ000-212145- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0925 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0312 PM CDT SUN MAY 21 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...WRN/MIDDLE TN...NRN MS/AL CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 212012Z - 212145Z TSTM DEVELOPMENT EXPECTED TO INCREASE ALONG QUASI-STATIONARY FRONTAL ZONE ORIENTED GENERALLY WEST TO EAST FROM THE MS RIVER TO EXTREME NERN AL/NWRN GA. PARTS OF THE TN VALLEY EAST TO THE SRN APPALACHIANS WILL LIKELY NEED TO BE COVERED WITH A SEVERE TSTM WATCH SHORTLY. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY LOOP WAS INDICATING THICKENING CU FIELD ALONG FRONTAL ZONE ACROSS WRN TN. COMBINATION OF GREATER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FOCUSED ALONG THE FRONT THIS AREA...AND STRONG SURFACE HEATING...WERE CONTRIBUTING TO STRONG INSTABILITY AND DIMINISHING INHIBITION. PERSISTENT LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT MAY STRENGTHEN FURTHER AS MID LEVEL IMPULSE/SHORT WAVE TRANSLATES ESEWD FROM MO BOOTHEEL THROUGH EARLY EVENING AND THIS SHOULD PROMOTE AN INCREASING IN TSTM DEVELOPMENT ALONG AND NEAR THE FRONT. WNWLY MID LEVEL FLOW OF 30-40KT WILL RESULT IN SUFFICIENT DEEP SHEAR FOR SUPERCELLS WITH THE THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL AND HIGH WINDS SPREADING EWD/SEWD THROUGH THE EVENING. ..CARBIN.. 05/21/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MRX...FFC...OHX...HUN...MEG... 34638694 34908820 35218991 36128954 35998844 35828720 35638640 34908548 34628565 34398606  From mcd at goshenarc.org Sun May 21 20:38:21 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Sun, 21 May 2006 16:38:21 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 212035 SWOMCD SPC MCD 212035 KSZ000-OKZ000-TXZ000-COZ000-212230- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0926 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0335 PM CDT SUN MAY 21 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTHEAST CO/FAR WESTERN KS INTO OK/TX PANHANDLES CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 212035Z - 212230Z ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT WILL EXIST THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS OF SOUTHEAST CO/FAR WESTERN KS AND PORTIONS OF THE TX/OK PANHANDLES. A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IS NOT CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED. AS OF 2030Z...STRONG STORMS HAVE INITIATED ACROSS SOUTHEAST CO BETWEEN BURLINGTON-LA JUNTA TO NEAR SPRINGFIELD...AS WELL AS THE FAR NORTHERN TX PANHANDLE NORTH OF DALHART. THIS DEVELOPMENT IS OCCURRING WITHIN A DEEPLY MIXED AIRMASS...WITH TEMPERATURES ALREADY IN THE UPPER 80S/LOWER 90S. IN SPITE OF MODERATE INSTABILITY... MODEST EFFECTIVE SHEAR AROUND 30 KTS SHOULD TEND TO LIMIT OVERALL STORM ORGANIZATION AS STORMS DRIFT EAST-SOUTHEAST. IN ADDITION TO EPISODIC LARGE HAIL...INVERTED-V PROFILES CHARACTERIZED BY LARGE DCAPE AROUND 1400 J/KG AND TEMP-DEWPOINT SPREADS OF 40-50 F WILL SUPPORT STRONG/POTENTIALLY DAMAGING DOWNDRAFTS. OVERALL ISOLATED NATURE OF THE THREAT SHOULD PRECLUDE A WATCH ISSUANCE. ..GUYER.. 05/21/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...DDC...GLD...AMA...PUB... 37190102 35260125 35450259 38290317 39300279 38980163 38420108  From mcd at goshenarc.org Sun May 21 21:50:47 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Sun, 21 May 2006 17:50:47 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 212147 SWOMCD SPC MCD 212146 NCZ000-SCZ000-GAZ000-212315- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0927 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0446 PM CDT SUN MAY 21 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS ERN SC...EXTREME SRN NC. CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 372...373... VALID 212146Z - 212315Z PRIMARY CLUSTER OF SEVERE TSTMS WAS LOCATED OVER WILLIAMSBURG COUNTY AS OF 2130Z. THIS ACTIVITY -- WITH HISTORY OF MEASURED GUSTS TO 62 KT AT CAE -- WILL CONTINUE MOVING ESEWD 50-55 KT THROUGH FAVORABLY UNSTABLE AIR TOWARD COAST AND SHOULD PRODUCE ADDITIONAL DAMAGING GUSTS. CONVECTION SHOULD CONTINUE TO SHOW DISCRETELY FORWARD-PROPAGATING TENDENCIES -- WHERE NEW CELL GROWTH ALONG LEADING OUTFLOW EDGE EXPANDS QUICKLY AS EARLIER ACTIVITY WEAKENS IN STABILIZED AIR ATOP ITS OWN OUTFLOW POOL. BRIEF INTENSIFICATION AND PERHAPS MESOCYCLONE DEVELOPMENT MAY OCCUR OVER IMMEDIATE COASTAL AREAS GEORGETOWN COUNTY...AS COMPLEX CROSSES SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY THAT HAS BEEN CONFINED NEAR SHORELINE BY AMBIENT BOUNDARY LAYER WLYS. MODIFIED RUC SOUNDINGS SUGGEST AROUND 1000-1500 J/KG MLCAPE ACROSS PROSPECTIVE INFLOW LAYER NEAR COAST...WITH 30-40 KT STORM-RELATIVE INFLOW DESPITE WLY COMPONENT OF SFC WINDS. MEANWHILE ADDITIONAL TSTMS E FLO MAY CROSS PORTIONS COLUMBUS/BRUNSWICK COUNTIES NC BEFORE MOVING OFFSHORE...ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE POSSIBLE. SBCINH SHOULD CONTINUE TO INCREASE FARTHER W ACROSS SC FROM BOTH SFC DIABATIC COOLING AND OUTFLOW RELATED STABILIZATION. THEREFORE WWS MAY BE CLEARED FROM W-E AS PRIMARY ACTIVITY PASSES. ..EDWARDS.. 05/21/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MHX...RAH...ILM...CHS...CAE... 32317986 32638047 33078054 33198075 33038109 33128129 33098171 35177963 34847922 34847845 34507822 34727769 34217723 33527784 33427869 32657921  From mcd at goshenarc.org Mon May 22 00:24:47 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Sun, 21 May 2006 20:24:47 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 220022 SWOMCD SPC MCD 220021 KSZ000-NEZ000-COZ000-220215- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0928 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0721 PM CDT SUN MAY 21 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTHWEST NEB/WESTERN KS CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 220021Z - 220215Z STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD CONTINUE TO SPREAD EAST-SOUTHEAST ACROSS SOUTHWEST NEB AND WESTERN KS THIS EVENING...WITH CONTINUED POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. A WATCH IS NOT CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED...HOWEVER WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR DEVELOPMENTAL TRENDS. AT 0015Z...STRONG/SEVERE STORMS ARE ONGOING FROM FAR NORTHEAST CO INTO SOUTHWEST NEB NEAR MCCOOK AND FAR NORTHWEST KS NEAR GOODLAND. ALONG AND SOUTHWEST OF BAROCLINIC ZONE FROM CENTRAL NEB INTO CENTRAL KS...STORMS ARE LIKELY TO CONTINUE SPREAD EAST-SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE EVENING WITH AT LEAST AN OCCASIONAL SEVERE THREAT OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. GIVEN RECENT TRENDS NEAR THE KS/NEB/CO CONJUNCTION...SUSTAINABILITY WILL BE ENHANCED IF STORMS CONGLOMERATE/ORGANIZE A MESOSCALE COLD POOL OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO IN PRESENCE OF WARM/MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER CHARACTERIZED BY HIGH TEMP-DEWPOINT SPREADS. GIVEN THIS SCENARIO...AN INCREASING SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL JET PER LATEST RUC GUIDANCE WILL SUPPORT FORWARD PROPAGATION EAST-SOUTHEAST ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN NEB/NORTHWEST KS AND PERHAPS WEST CENTRAL/NORTH CENTRAL KS. RED WILLOW NEB PROFILER IS INDICATIVE OF AROUND 35 KTS OF VERTICAL SHEAR...SUFFICIENT FOR ORGANIZATION OF ONE OR MORE RELATIVELY ORGANIZED MCS CLUSTERS. IN SPITE OF STRONG AFTERNOON MIXING...BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE HAS HELD/MODESTLY INCREASED FROM CENTRAL KS INTO NORTHWEST KS...SUPPORTIVE OF MLCAPE VALUES OF 1000-1500 J/KG OR GREATER IN THE AMBIENT WARM SECTOR PER 00Z OBSERVED RAOBS FROM DODGE CITY/NORTH PLATTE. ALTHOUGH A SEVERE THREAT WILL EXIST FOR MUCH OF THE EVENING...CURRENT THINKING IS THE OVERALL THREAT WILL REMAIN SUFFICIENTLY ISOLATED/MARGINAL TO PRECLUDE A WW ISSUANCE. ..GUYER.. 05/22/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...ICT...GID...LBF...DDC...GLD... 40030219 40800149 40840014 40059916 38859901 38639947 38570100 38900206  From mcd at goshenarc.org Mon May 22 00:32:08 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Sun, 21 May 2006 20:32:08 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 220029 SWOMCD SPC MCD 220028 NCZ000-GAZ000-TNZ000-ALZ000-MSZ000-220230- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0929 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0728 PM CDT SUN MAY 21 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS WRN-SRN TN...EXTREME NRN AL...NWRN GA. CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 374... VALID 220028Z - 220230Z CLUSTER OF STRONG-SEVERE TSTMS CONTINUES TO EXPAND IN COVERAGE OVER WRN PORTIONS WW. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD SHIFT ESEWD THROUGH NARROW CORRIDOR OF MLCAPES 1500-2500 J/KG...TOWARD CHA AREA AND NWRN GA. THIS PROJECTED PATH IS ALONG AND S OF QUASISTATIONARY BAROCLINIC ZONE ANALYZED FROM SRN SC TO NWRN AR. THIS AREA IS ALONG SRN EDGE OF FAVORABLE KINEMATIC PROFILES...WITH 30-40 KT 0-6 KM SHEAR AND 50-100 J/KG OF 0-1 KM SRH. SFC-BASED BUOYANCY GRADUALLY SHOULD DIMINISH WITH TIME AND DIABATIC COOLING AT GROUND LEVEL...THOUGH EFFECTIVE LIFTED PARCELS WILL REMAIN ROOTED AT OR JUST ABOVE SFC FOR SEVERAL MORE HOURS IN SUPPORT OF DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL. ANY ACTIVITY MOVING S OF WW SHOULD QUICKLY ENTER LESS FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY STRONGER CINH...SMALLER MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES AND WEAKER DEEP-LAYER SHEAR....BASED ON MODIFIED BHM RAOB AND RUC SOUNDINGS S OF MID TN. ..EDWARDS.. 05/22/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MRX...FFC...OHX...BMX...HUN...MEG... 35718966 35528883 35458804 35518746 35648704 35808693 35508567 35868494 34788410 34348449 34188610 34658628 34618698 34798788 35258974  From mcd at goshenarc.org Mon May 22 02:35:28 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Sun, 21 May 2006 22:35:28 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 220231 SWOMCD SPC MCD 220231 NCZ000-GAZ000-TNZ000-ALZ000-MSZ000-220330- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0930 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0931 PM CDT SUN MAY 21 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS SRN MID TN...SERN TN...EXTREME NRN AL...NWRN GA. CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 374... VALID 220231Z - 220330Z ISOLATED SVR POTENTIAL WILL REMAIN PAST SCHEDULED 3Z WW EXPIRATION AND LOCAL EXTENSION OPTION EXISTS FOR A FEW COUNTIES FOR AN HOUR OR TWO. ADDITIONAL WW ISSUANCE IS NOT EXPECTED ATTM...HOWEVER. NARROW 50-80 NM WIDE CORRIDOR OF FAVORABLE MLCAPES -- ABOVE 1500 J/KG -- WILL CONTINUE FOR ANOTHER 2-3 HOURS AHEAD OF COMPLEX FROM NERN AL ACROSS NRN GA...BEFORE DIABATIC SFC COOLING BEGINS TO ELEVATE BASE OF LIFTED PARCELS AGL. SFC ANALYSIS...MODIFIED BHM/FFC RAOBS AND RUC SOUNDINGS SUGGEST AIR MASS BECOMES SUBSTANTIALLY DRIER AND MORE STABLE WITH SRN EXTENT INTO GA/AL. THAT PORTION OF OUTFLOW BOUNDARY MOVING THROUGH THIS CORRIDOR MAY INITIATE ADDITIONAL CONVECTION WITH POTENTIAL TO BRIEFLY REACH SEVERE LEVELS. ISOLATED/ELEVATED TSTMS N OF MAIN LINE IN MID/ERN TN -- ELEVATED ATOP OUTFLOW POOL -- MAY BRIEFLY PRODUCE HAIL. HOWEVER...OVERALL ORGANIZATION OF MCS HAS WEAKENED IN PAST HOUR AND SHOULD CONTINUE TO DO SO AS INFLOW LAYER AIR MASS BECOMES MORE STABLE...IN ENVIRONMENT OF MRGL VERTICAL SHEAR. ..EDWARDS.. 05/22/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MRX...FFC...OHX...BMX...HUN...MEG... 35718966 35528883 35458804 35518746 35648704 35808693 35508567 35868494 34788410 34348449 34188610 34658628 34618698 34798788 35258974  From mcd at goshenarc.org Mon May 22 03:47:28 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Sun, 21 May 2006 23:47:28 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 220342 SWOMCD SPC MCD 220342 KSZ000-COZ000-220545- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0931 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1042 PM CDT SUN MAY 21 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS NWRN AND W-CENTRAL KS. CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 220342Z - 220545Z CLUSTER OF STG-SVR TSTMS OVER NWRN KS IS EXPECTED TO MOVE GENERALLY ESEWD ACROSS PORTIONS NWRN-CENTRAL KS WITH POTENTIAL FOR OCNL HAIL AND DAMAGING GUSTS. AREA WILL BE CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED BUT WW NOT ANTICIPATED ATTM. MOST FAVORED TRACK FOR MCS APPEARS TO BE BETWEEN LOW LEVEL MOIST AXIS AND NRN PORTION OF INSTABILITY GRADIENT ASSOCIATED WITH QUASISTATIONARY BAROCLINIC ZONE. LATEST SFC...925 AND 850 MB CHARTS SHOWED THIS AXIS NEARLY COLOCATED AT THOSE LEVELS ALONG LINE FROM SGF...HUT...40 ESE GLD. DIFFUSE SFC FRONTAL ZONE WAS ANALYZED FROM NEAR HLC ESEWD TOWARD S-CENTRAL MO. MODIFIED RAOBS AND RUC SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT STEEP LAPSE RATES OF AROUND 8 DEG C/KM WILL SUPPORT MUCAPES OVER 2000 J/KG IN PRESTORM AIR MASS ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL/NWRN KS THROUGH 6Z. ALTHOUGH SBCINH IS STRONG AT OVER 200 J/KG IN MOST AREAS...THERMODYNAMIC PROFILE THROUGH THAT LAYER INDICATES POTENTIAL FOR SOME STRONG-SVR GUSTS TO REACH SFC. INITIALLY 30-35 KT SELY LLJ IS FCST TO VEER FROM SELY TOWARD SLY DIRECTION AND WEAKEN SLIGHTLY AFTER 6Z. EXPECT STORM-RELATIVE INFLOWS 30-50 KT BEFORE 6Z...WITH SOME POTENTIAL FOR ANY REMAINING CONVECTION THEREAFTER TO PROPAGATE MORE TOWARD SLY OR EVEN SWLY DIRECTION. ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT/PROPAGATION MAY CONTINUE ATOP OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM THIS ACTIVITY ACROSS PORTIONS NERN KS...WHICH IN TURN MAY FURTHER DRIVE OUTFLOW AIR MASS SSEWD. ..EDWARDS.. 05/22/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...TOP...ICT...GID...DDC...GLD...PUB... 39120199 39230138 39520083 39900046 39149782 38479964 38180209  From mcd at goshenarc.org Mon May 22 16:06:18 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Mon, 22 May 2006 12:06:18 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 221600 SWOMCD SPC MCD 221559 ARZ000-MOZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-221800- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0932 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1059 AM CDT MON MAY 22 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...SERN KS/SWRN MO/NERN OK/NWRN AR CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 221559Z - 221800Z LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF MCV SHOULD SLOWLY INTENSIFY OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS AS AIRMASS HEATS/DESTABILIZES. WW MAY BE REQUIRED BY EARLY AFTERNOON. LATEST RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS A SMALL ORGANIZED/ARCING LINE OF CONVECTION OVER S CENTRAL KS AHEAD OF WELL-DEFINED MCV. DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 60S AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE COUPLED WITH DAYTIME HEATING WILL YIELD A MODERATELY-UNSTABLE AIRMASS. HOWEVER...MORNING VAD/PROFILER DATA CONFIRMS MODEL PFC DEPICTION OF VERY WEAK DEEP-LAYER WIND FIELD ACROSS THIS REGION. DESPITE THIS...STORMS SHOULD REMAIN ORGANIZED ON THE MESOSCALE INVOF MCV. GIVEN DEGREE OF INSTABILITY WHICH SHOULD DEVELOP...EXPECT STRONGER CELLS TO PRODUCE HAIL AND LOCALLY GUSTY/BRIEFLY DAMAGING WINDS WITHIN A CONFINED CORRIDOR ORIENTED WNW-ESE AHEAD OF THE FORECAST TRACK OF THE MCV. ..GOSS.. 05/22/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LZK...SGF...EAX...TSA...TOP...ICT...OUN...DDC... 38529716 38269508 37489295 35979233 35529342 36029600 37059838  From mcd at goshenarc.org Mon May 22 18:34:38 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Mon, 22 May 2006 14:34:38 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 221831 SWOMCD SPC MCD 221830 SCZ000-GAZ000-222030- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0933 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0130 PM CDT MON MAY 22 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF NRN AND ERN GA/WRN SC CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 221830Z - 222030Z MARGINAL SEVERE THREAT SLOWLY INCREASING ACROSS PARTS OF NRN AND ERN GA AND ADJACENT WRN SC. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR CU FIELD EVOLUTION ACROSS THIS REGION. SURFACE ANALYSIS REVEALS SURFACE FRONT EXTENDING FROM NRN GA SEWD ACROSS SRN SC...WHERE HEATING/DESTABILIZATION CONTINUES. THIS REGION LIES BENEATH SRN FRINGE OF STRONGER NWLY FLOW ALOFT -- ROUGHLY ALONG THE ORIENTATION OF THE FRONT. CLOUDS/SHOWERS CONTINUE MOVING ESEWD ACROSS NRN AL/NWRN GA AHEAD OF WEAK UPPER FEATURE. AS ASSOCIATED AREA OF LARGE-SCALE UVV SPREADS ACROSS DESTABILIZING AIRMASS ACROSS THE DISCUSSION AREA...EXPECT THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP FROM WITHIN AGITATED CU FIELD NOW EVIDENT OVER NRN GA -- WITH ASSOCIATED THREAT FOR MARGINALLY-SEVERE HAIL. COULD STORMS ORGANIZE INTO A MESOSCALE CLUSTER INVOF FRONT...A MORE SUBSTANTIAL SEVERE THREAT -- INCLUDING POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WINDS -- COULD EVOLVE SHIFT SEWD ALONG SURFACE BOUNDARY. ..GOSS.. 05/22/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...CHS...CAE...GSP...FFC... 34448311 33878109 32588132 32868340 33818481 34588394  From mcd at goshenarc.org Mon May 22 18:44:07 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Mon, 22 May 2006 14:44:07 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 221841 SWOMCD SPC MCD 221840 NMZ000-COZ000-WYZ000-UTZ000-222045- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0934 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0140 PM CDT MON MAY 22 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...WESTERN CO/NORTH CENTRAL NM AND SOUTHWEST/SOUTH CENTRAL WY CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 221840Z - 222045Z THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL/STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS WESTERN CO AND SOUTHWEST/SOUTH CENTRAL WY INTO NORTH CENTRAL NM. A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IS NOT CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED...HOWEVER WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR DEVELOPMENTAL TRENDS. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY FEATURES UPPER TROUGH ADVANCING NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE LOWER CO RIVER VALLEY/SOUTHWEST DESERTS...WITH A STRONG MID LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY JET EXTENDING INTO THE FOUR CORNERS AREA. COUPLED WITH GRADUALLY COOLING TEMPERATURES ALOFT...AMPLE CLOUD BREAKS/BOUNDARY LAYER HEATING WILL CONTRIBUTE TO A FAIRLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS THIS AFTERNOON -- MUCAPES OF 1500 J/KG -- AND A LIKELY UPSWING IN CONVECTIVE INTENSITY THROUGH MID/LATE AFTERNOON. THIS TREND MAY ALREADY BE OCCURRING ACROSS NORTHWEST CO/SOUTHWEST WY GIVEN COOLING CLOUD TOPS/LIGHTNING INCREASE. THE DEGREE OF INSTABILITY/STEEP LAPSE RATES COUPLED WITH STRONG SPEED SHEAR WILL PROMOTE A LARGE HAIL THREAT. IN ADDITION TO LARGE HAIL...A RELATIVELY DRY BOUNDARY LAYER WILL ALSO SUPPORT POTENTIAL FOR STRONG CONVECTIVE DOWNDRAFTS. CURRENT THINKING IS THAT THE EXPECTED MARGINAL/ISOLATED NATURE WILL LIKELY PRECLUDE A WATCH ISSUANCE. ..GUYER.. 05/22/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...PUB...BOU...CYS...ABQ...RIW...GJT... 41240946 42640859 40880677 38720610 37310535 36340497 35880555 35990678 36400753 37110820 39060878  From mcd at goshenarc.org Mon May 22 20:03:29 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Mon, 22 May 2006 16:03:29 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 222000 SWOMCD SPC MCD 221959 COZ000-NMZ000-222200- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0935 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0259 PM CDT MON MAY 22 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...EAST CENTRAL/NORTHEAST NM AND SOUTHEAST CO CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 221959Z - 222200Z IT APPEARS THAT STRONG WIND GUST/PERHAPS LARGE HAIL POTENTIAL MAY SPREAD INTO THE SOUTHEAST CO AND NORTHEAST/EAST CENTRAL NM FRONT RANGE/FOOTHILLS THROUGH MID/LATE AFTERNOON. A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MAY BE NEEDED SOON. STRONG MEASURED WIND GUSTS HAVE BEEN OBSERVED OVER THE PAST 1-2 HOURS ACROSS CENTRAL CO AND NORTH CENTRAL NM WITH LOOSELY ORGANIZED CLUSTERS OF HIGH BASED THUNDERSTORMS. GUSTS NEAR/ABOVE 50 KTS HAVE BEEN OBSERVED AT TAOS NM/ALAMOSA CO. EVEN THOUGH THE PLAINS ARE STILL RELATIVELY STABLE...AMBIENT WIND FIELDS AND LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE/FURTHER DESTABILIZATION ACROSS THE PLAINS MAY SUPPORT A SEVERE THREAT DEVELOPING INTO AT LEAST THE I-25 CORRIDOR OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. IT STORMS CAN SURVIVE INTO EASTERN NM...40-50 KTS OF EFFECTIVE SHEAR WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELLS. ..GUYER.. 05/22/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...PUB...BOU...ABQ... 38540483 38890433 38300345 36700322 35110347 33560397 33790485 35050534 36360521  From mcd at goshenarc.org Mon May 22 20:35:28 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Mon, 22 May 2006 16:35:28 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 222032 SWOMCD SPC MCD 222031 ARZ000-MOZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-222200- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0936 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0331 PM CDT MON MAY 22 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...SERN KS/NERN OK/SWRN MO CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 375... VALID 222031Z - 222200Z STORMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP NEAR WRN EDGE OF WW...WITH SOME INCREASE IN INTENSITY OVER THE PAST HOUR. STORMS CONTINUE ACROSS PARTS OF S CENTRAL AND SERN KS...WITHIN AIRMASS WHICH HAS BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE. SHEAR -- THOUGH RELATIVELY WEAK -- CONTINUES TO SUPPORT LIMITED ORGANIZATION GIVEN DEGREE OF INSTABILITY. EXPECT A THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS IN AND NEAR WW. ..GOSS.. 05/22/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...SGF...TSA...TOP...ICT...OUN... 38219695 37749366 36389363 36809706  From mcd at goshenarc.org Mon May 22 20:52:47 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Mon, 22 May 2006 16:52:47 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 222048 SWOMCD SPC MCD 222048 COZ000-NEZ000-WYZ000-222245- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0937 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0348 PM CDT MON MAY 22 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...NORTHEAST CO/EASTERN WY CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 222048Z - 222245Z SEVERE POTENTIAL APPEARS LIKELY TO INCREASE ACROSS MUCH OF EASTERN WY/NORTHEAST CO REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON. WILL MONITOR FOR A POSSIBLE WATCH IN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO. WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS ARE ONGOING ALONG THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE IN WY/CO AT MID AFTERNOON. GIVEN MODERATE SOUTHWEST FLOW ATOP SOUTHEASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW...STORMS SHOULD SPREAD EAST TO THE FRONT RANGE AND IMMEDIATELY ADJACENT PLAINS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. MODEST VERTICAL SHEAR AND AN INITIALLY MORE STABLE AIRMASS INTO THE PLAINS PROVIDES UNCERTAINLY REGARDING THE EXTENT OF THE SEVERE THREAT THROUGH MID/LATE AFTERNOON. IN ADDITION TO A CONDITIONAL LARGE HAIL POTENTIAL...WARM/DRY NATURE OF AIRMASS AND INVERTED-V BOUNDARY LAYER CHARACTERIZED BY DCAPE IN EXCESS OF 1000 J/KG WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF STRONG/POTENTIALLY DAMAGING DOWNDRAFTS. THIS IS SIMILAR TO WHAT HAS OCCURRED ACROSS WESTERN/CENTRAL PORTIONS OF CO AND WEST CENTRAL WY /RIVERTON/ THIS AFTERNOON VIA MEASURED GUSTS. ..GUYER.. 05/22/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...UNR...PUB...BOU...CYS...BYZ...RIW... 39130502 40410551 42810614 44500666 44690508 43550434 40500369 39110331 39040377  From mcd at goshenarc.org Mon May 22 20:57:06 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Mon, 22 May 2006 16:57:06 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 222053 SWOMCD SPC MCD 222053 SCZ000-GAZ000-222230- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0938 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0353 PM CDT MON MAY 22 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...E CENTRAL GA/CENTRAL AND SRN SC CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 222053Z - 222230Z STORMS HAVE BEGUN TO INCREASE OVER THE PAST HOUR ACROSS E CENTRAL GA/W CENTRAL SC...ALONG WITH ASSOCIATED THREAT FOR HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS. NEW WW BEING CONSIDERED. STORMS ARE INCREASING INVOF REMNANT/ILL-DEFINED FRONT ATTM...WHERE AOB 1000 J/KG MEAN-LAYER CAPE IS INDICATED. WITH MID-LEVEL FLOW NEAR 40 KT FROM THE WNW...SHEAR/INSTABILITY COMBINATION IS SUPPORTING FAIRLY VIGOROUS UPDRAFT DEVELOPMENT. THOUGH DURATION OF THREAT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN LIMITED/DIURNAL...A FEW STRONGER STORMS WILL LIKELY PRODUCE LARGE HAIL AND PERHAPS LOCALLY-DAMAGING WINDS. ..GOSS.. 05/22/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...ILM...CHS...CAE...FFC... 33908318 33938186 33257918 32098073 33338355  From mcd at goshenarc.org Mon May 22 21:20:09 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Mon, 22 May 2006 17:20:09 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 222114 SWOMCD SPC MCD 222114 IDZ000-MTZ000-ORZ000-WAZ000-222315- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0939 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0414 PM CDT MON MAY 22 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...EASTERN ORE/EASTERN WA INTO NORTHERN/CENTRAL ID AND FAR WESTERN MT CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 222114Z - 222315Z SEVERE THREAT IS LIKELY TO INCREASE ACROSS EASTERN WA/EASTERN ORE AND NORTHERN/CENTRAL ID INTO FAR WESTERN MT REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR DEVELOPMENTAL TRENDS FOR A POSSIBLE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH. AT 2115Z...A SEVERE STORM IS ONGOING ACROSS NORTHERN ID ALONG I-90 EAST OF COEUR D ALENE. A RECENT INCREASE IS ALSO NOTED ROUGHLY NEAR I-82 IN SOUTH CENTRAL WA PER VOLUMETRIC RADAR. WITH AN OVERALL UPSWING OF AREAL THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE ANTICIPATED PER INCREASING FORCING FOR ASCENT...THINNING CIRRUS/BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS WILL SUPPORT FURTHER HEATING/DESTABILIZATION ACROSS THE REGION. RUC PROXIMITY SOUNDINGS ARE GENERALLY SUPPORTIVE OF MUCAPES OF 1000-1500 J/KG. SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY/STEEP LAPSE RATES COUPLED WITH 50 KT MID LEVEL SOUTH-SOUTHWESTLY FLOW WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR SOME SUPERCELLS/ORGANIZED LINEAR CLUSTERS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. ..GUYER.. 05/22/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...PIH...MSO...BOI...OTX...PDT... 47072011 48451822 48801580 47571421 44641430 43301661 44251890 45091967  From mcd at goshenarc.org Mon May 22 22:27:18 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Mon, 22 May 2006 18:27:18 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 222225 SWOMCD SPC MCD 222224 MOZ000-ARZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-222330- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0940 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0524 PM CDT MON MAY 22 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTHEAST KS/SOUTHWEST MO/NORTHEAST OK CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 375... VALID 222224Z - 222330Z ALREADY ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT EXPECTED TO FURTHER DIMINISH ACROSS SOUTHEAST KS/SOUTHWEST MO/NORTHEAST OK EARLY THIS EVENING. SEVERE WATCH 375 WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AS SCHEDULED AT 23Z WITH NO WW REISSUANCE. WITHIN UPPER RIDGE AXIS...SATELLITE/PROFILER TRENDS SUGGEST MCV ACROSS SOUTHEAST KS APPEARS TO BE PROGRESSIVELY LOSING ITS CHARACTER WITH TIME. SOME PULSE-TYPE SEVERE MAY STILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG COMPOSITE OUTFLOWS IN UNPERTURBED/UNSTABLE AIRMASS...HOWEVER THE SEVERE THREAT SHOULD REMAIN RATHER ISOLATED REST OF THE EVENING. ..GUYER.. 05/22/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...SGF...TSA...ICT...OUN... 37959697 37909502 37529352 36679335 36329419 36599597 36809670 37269707  From mcd at goshenarc.org Mon May 22 23:02:07 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Mon, 22 May 2006 19:02:07 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 222259 SWOMCD SPC MCD 222258 COZ000-NMZ000-UTZ000-230130- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0941 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0558 PM CDT MON MAY 22 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS CENTRAL/NRN NM...WRN CO...EXTREME ERN UT. CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 222258Z - 230130Z POTENTIAL WILL CONTINUE FOR STRONG/ISOLATED SEVERE GUSTS ACROSS THIS REGION THROUGH AROUND 02Z. WW NOT ANTICIPATED ATTM BUT AREA WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED. MOISTURE CHANNEL IMAGERY SHOWS STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW EJECTING NEWD ACROSS SERN NV...SWRN UT AND AZ...FCST TO MOVE INTO THIS REGION BY AROUND 6Z. AHEAD OF THIS TROUGH...MIDLEVEL AIR MASS IS FCST TO DESTABILIZE FURTHER AS STRONG LARGE SCALE DPVA/ASCENT SPREADS ACROSS REGION. AS THIS OCCURS...TSTMS SHOULD CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS SRN/WRN PORTIONS OF DISCUSSION AREA AND MOVE NWD TO NNEWD...INTO AREAS ALREADY AFFECTED BY EARLIER CONVECTION. LARGE AREA OF CLOUDS/CONVECTION NOW EVIDENT IN VIS/REFLECTIVITY IMAGERY WILL SERVE COMPETING PURPOSES -- TO PRECLUDE ADDITIONAL SFC-BASED DESTABILIZATION...BUT ALSO TO ENHANCE POTENTIAL NUMBER OF DAMAGING GUSTS OVER REGION BECAUSE OF RELATIVELY DENSE COVERAGE OF TSTMS. POCKETS OF RELATIVELY LOW-ELEVATION AIR MASS IN VALLEYS AND CANYONS NOT ALREADY STABILIZED BY PRIOR OUTFLOWS WILL HAVE INVERTED-V THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES SUPPORTING DOWNDRAFT STRENGTH. OVER HIGHER ELEVATIONS...STRENGTHENING LOW-MIDLEVEL GRADIENT WINDS AHEAD OF TROUGH MAY BE BLENDED WITH CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW FOR DAMAGING GUST POTENTIAL. WRN EDGE OF MAIN CONVECTIVE PLUME SHOULD REMAIN E OF ROUGHLY AN ABQ...FMN...CEZ...CNY LINE...AHEAD OF PRONOUNCED SFC SWLY WIND SHIFT AND DRYING THAT HAS BEEN OBSERVED. ..EDWARDS.. 05/22/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...PUB...BOU...ABQ...GJT... 40980684 38440602 37540548 37000575 37000599 35950602 35930629 34860621 35320723 37570823 38930992 40860967  From mcd at goshenarc.org Mon May 22 23:54:14 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Mon, 22 May 2006 19:54:14 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 222351 SWOMCD SPC MCD 222350 SDZ000-NDZ000-MTZ000-WYZ000-230215- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0942 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0650 PM CDT MON MAY 22 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS S-CENTRAL/SERN MT...WRN SD...CENTRAL/NRN WY...EXTREME SWRN ND. CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 222350Z - 230215Z CONVECTIVE COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE ACROSS THIS REGION THROUGH REMAINDER AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING...WITH CORRESPONDING INCREASE IN POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL. AREA WILL BE MONITORED FOR POSSIBLE WW. SFC MESOANALYSIS SHOWS WEAK SFC LOWS NEAR GTF AND NEAR CPR. QUASISTATIONARY FRONTAL ZONE -- ALSO ACTING AS EFFECTIVE DRYLINE -- EXTENDING SEWD FROM GTF SFC LOW ACROSS SERN CORNER MT TO NEAR RAP. CONFLUENCE/WIND SHIFT LINE EXTENDS FROM CPR SFC LOW NWD TO INTERSECT FRONTAL/DRYLINE BOUNDARY ROUGHLY 30-50 S MLS. AXES OF SFC PRESSURE FALLS ARE EVIDENT ALONG OR JUST E OF BOTH OF THESE BOUNDARIES...HELPING TO MAINTAIN ASSOCIATED CONVERGENCE. IN ADDITION...LARGE SCALE ASCENT AND VERTICAL SHEAR EACH IS FCST TO INCREASE ACROSS THIS REGION THIS EVENING IN CONJUNCTION WITH 1. INCREASING MIDLEVEL DPVA AHEAD OF PHASED/NEWD-MOVING MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGHS -- NOW EVIDENT IN MOISTURE CHANNEL IMAGERY OVER GREAT BASIN AND NRN AZ... 2. CONTINUED ISALLOBARIC FORCING AND BACKING OF FLOW INVOF FRONTAL/DRYLINE BOUNDARY...AND 3. INCREASING LOW LEVEL WAA ASSOCIATED WITH LLJ STRENGTHENING TO 40-50 KT ALONG WRN BORDER OF DAKOTAS AFTER DARK. UNTIL THEN...MODIFIED RUC SOUNDINGS SUGGEST SFC TEMPS WILL REMAIN WARM ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SFC-BASED BUOYANT PARCELS WITH MLCAPES 500-1000 J/KG SW OF FRONT WHERE SFC DEW POINTS REMAIN IN 30S/40S F...AND 1000-2000 J/KG ALONG AND NE OF BOUNDARY WITH DEW POINTS 50S F. ..EDWARDS.. 05/22/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...BIS...UNR...CYS...BYZ...GGW...RIW...TFX... 46600511 45220276 43020287 43020401 43510410 43490605 42940608 42410611 42360692 42790765 44620791 46820874  From mcd at goshenarc.org Tue May 23 00:14:04 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Mon, 22 May 2006 20:14:04 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 230010 SWOMCD SPC MCD 230010 OKZ000-COZ000-TXZ000-NMZ000-230215- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0943 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0710 PM CDT MON MAY 22 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS ERN NM...S-CENTRAL/SERN CO...WRN OK PANHANDLE...WRN TX PANHANDLE. CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 376... VALID 230010Z - 230215Z SVR TSTM POTENTIAL IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH FROM SW-NE ACROSS WW WITH TIME BECAUSE OF SUBSTANTIAL LOW LEVEL DRYING...LEADING EDGE OF WHICH IS ANALYZED AT 00Z FROM ROW-ABQ/CEZ. ALTHOUGH SOME CU/TCU STILL ARE EVIDENT ON VIS IMAGERY SW OF THIS LINE...DIABATIC HEATING HAS PEAKED OVER HIGHER ELEVATIONS IN SWRN PORTION WW...AND GENERAL CONVECTIVE TREND SHOULD BE TOWARD WEAKENING IN THAT AREA. WW MAY BE CLEARED FROM SW-NE ACCORDINGLY. FARTHER N...INCREASING LARGE SCALE ASCENT AND VERTICAL SHEAR SHOULD SPREAD OVER NERN NM AND SERN CO THROUGH REMAINDER EVENING...AHEAD OF STRONG MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH NOW EVIDENT IN MOISTURE CHANNEL IMAGERY FROM SWRN NM NWWD ACROSS NRN AZ. THIS MAY LEAD TO ENOUGH LARGE SCALE DESTABILIZATION ALOFT THIS EVENING TO OFFSET LOW LEVEL STABILIZING EFFECTS OF CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW ACROSS MUCH OF SERN CO....HOWEVER NEAR-TERN SVR POTENTIAL OVER MOST OF SERN CO HAS DIMINISHED MARKEDLY. MEANWHILE STG/POSSIBLY SEVERE TSTMS ACROSS NERN NM MAY MOVE INTO PORTIONS ERN TX/OK PANHANDLES WITH THREAT OF MRGL SVR HAIL AND GUSTS...HOWEVER POTENTIAL APPEARS TOO CONFINED IN AREAL EXTENT FOR ADDITIONAL WW E OF THIS ONE. ..EDWARDS.. 05/23/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...GLD...LUB...AMA...MAF...PUB...BOU...ABQ... 33490463 35620576 36620590 38790537 38720308 37810278 36850244 35320254 33540323  From mcd at goshenarc.org Tue May 23 00:31:23 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Mon, 22 May 2006 20:31:23 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 230028 SWOMCD SPC MCD 230027 MTZ000-IDZ000-ORZ000-WAZ000-230230- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0944 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0727 PM CDT MON MAY 22 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...EASTERN WA/NORTHEAST ORE/NORTHERN AND CENTRAL ID/FAR WESTERN MT CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 377... VALID 230027Z - 230230Z SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 377 CONTINUES UNTIL 05Z...WITH CONTINUED THREAT FOR ISOLATED LARGE HAIL/STRONG WIND GUSTS THROUGH EARLY/MID EVENING. STORMS WITH EARLIER HISTORY OF LARGE HAIL/STRONG WIND GUSTS CONTINUE TO PROGRESS NORTH-NORTHEAST FROM FAR NORTHWEST MT/FAR NORTHERN ID INTO BRITISH COLUMBIA AT THIS TIME. FURTHER SOUTHWEST...LIKELY TIED TO PRIMARY BAND OF FORCING FOR ASCENT PER WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...NORTHWEST-SOUTHEAST ORIENTED ARC OF STORMS IS ADVANCING NORTH-NORTHEAST ACROSS EASTERN WA/FAR NORTHEAST ORE AND SOUTHERN ID AS OF 0030Z. AHEAD OF THESE STORMS...MODEST CLOUD BREAKS/HEATING WILL MAINTAIN LOCALLY MODERATE INSTABILITY...WITH MODIFIED 00Z OBSERVED SPOKANE WA RAOB SUPPORTIVE OF MOST UNSTABLE CAPE VALUES OF 1500-1800 J/KG WHERE MIDDLE 60S TO LOWER 70S TEMPERATURES PERSIST. IT APPEARS THE PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST TWO-THIRDS OF WW 377 ACROSS FAR EASTERN WA/NORTHERN ID/WESTERN MT THROUGH EARLY/MID EVENING. ..GUYER.. 05/23/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MSO...BOI...OTX...PDT... 46121897 46981964 47941855 48581825 48801647 48801429 48131362 47801331 47721415 47331407 47411445 47321494 46881508 46321477 45131511 44411556 44741620 44541679 44531705 44591776 44721796 45081814 45121887  From mcd at goshenarc.org Tue May 23 02:00:15 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Mon, 22 May 2006 22:00:15 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 230157 SWOMCD SPC MCD 230156 NEZ000-COZ000-SDZ000-WYZ000-230400- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0945 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0856 PM CDT MON MAY 22 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS NRN/ERN CO...SERN WY...NEB PANHANDLE. CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 378... VALID 230156Z - 230400Z STRONGEST TSTMS AS OF 145Z ARE EVIDENT OVER PORTIONS ELBERT/LINCOLN/CROWLEY/KIOWA COUNTIES. SEVERE GUST/HAIL POTENTIAL WILL CONTINUE WITH THIS ACTIVITY AS IT MOVES NEWD ALONG INSTABILITY GRADIENT RELATED TO OUTFLOW FROM EARLIER ACTIVITY...AND ACROSS I-70 CORRIDOR BETWEEN LIC-GLD. OTHERWISE...SEVERE WIND POTENTIAL APPEARS TO BE DIMINISHING SOMEWHAT AS BOUNDARY LAYER AIR MASS STABILIZES...FROM COMBINATION OF DIABATIC SFC COOLING AND STABILIZATION RELATED TO EARLIER CONVECTIVE OUTFLOWS. PRIMARY EXCEPTIONS MAY BE 1. ACTIVITY MOVING NEWD FROM CHAFFEE/SAGUACHE COUNTIES...PER COORD W/BOU. THIS ACTIVITY HAS PRODUCED MEASURED 40-50 KT GUSTS...IS EMBEDDED IN STRENGTHENING AMBIENT/GRADIENT FLOW AND MAY PRODUCE HIGH-ELEVATION WIND DAMAGE. 2. HAIL-PRODUCING TSTMS THAT MAY DEVELOP LATER THIS EVENING E OF FRONT RANGE...ATOP OUTFLOW POOLS...IN ZONE OF INCREASING LARGE SCALE ASCENT RELATED TO MIDLEVEL DPVA AND ELEVATED WAA. ..EDWARDS.. 05/23/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LBF...UNR...GLD...PUB...BOU...CYS...RIW...GJT... 40990635 41380632 41500603 43480607 43490397 43050399 43020282 40990202 38600210 38290345 38520406 39090409 39140531 38660531 38740594 40970684  From mcd at goshenarc.org Tue May 23 02:26:45 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Mon, 22 May 2006 22:26:45 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 230223 SWOMCD SPC MCD 230223 COR NEZ000-COZ000-SDZ000-WYZ000-230400- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0945 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0923 PM CDT MON MAY 22 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS NRN/ERN CO...SERN WY...NEB PANHANDLE. CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 378... VALID 230223Z - 230400Z CORRECTED FOR GRAPHIC LABEL STRONGEST TSTMS AS OF 145Z ARE EVIDENT OVER PORTIONS ELBERT/LINCOLN/CROWLEY/KIOWA COUNTIES. SEVERE GUST/HAIL POTENTIAL WILL CONTINUE WITH THIS ACTIVITY AS IT MOVES NEWD ALONG INSTABILITY GRADIENT RELATED TO OUTFLOW FROM EARLIER ACTIVITY...AND ACROSS I-70 CORRIDOR BETWEEN LIC-GLD. OTHERWISE...SEVERE WIND POTENTIAL APPEARS TO BE DIMINISHING SOMEWHAT AS BOUNDARY LAYER AIR MASS STABILIZES...FROM COMBINATION OF DIABATIC SFC COOLING AND STABILIZATION RELATED TO EARLIER CONVECTIVE OUTFLOWS. PRIMARY EXCEPTIONS MAY BE 1. ACTIVITY MOVING NEWD FROM CHAFFEE/SAGUACHE COUNTIES...PER COORD W/BOU. THIS ACTIVITY HAS PRODUCED MEASURED 40-50 KT GUSTS...IS EMBEDDED IN STRENGTHENING AMBIENT/GRADIENT FLOW AND MAY PRODUCE HIGH-ELEVATION WIND DAMAGE. 2. HAIL-PRODUCING TSTMS THAT MAY DEVELOP LATER THIS EVENING E OF FRONT RANGE...ATOP OUTFLOW POOLS...IN ZONE OF INCREASING LARGE SCALE ASCENT RELATED TO MIDLEVEL DPVA AND ELEVATED WAA. ..EDWARDS.. 05/23/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LBF...UNR...GLD...PUB...BOU...CYS...RIW...GJT... 40990635 41380632 41500603 43480607 43490397 43050399 43020282 40990202 38600210 38290345 38520406 39090409 39140531 38660531 38740594 40970684  From mcd at goshenarc.org Tue May 23 02:40:30 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Mon, 22 May 2006 22:40:30 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 230237 SWOMCD SPC MCD 230237 NEZ000-KSZ000-OKZ000-TXZ000-COZ000-NMZ000-230330- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0946 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0937 PM CDT MON MAY 22 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS ERN/NRN NM...E-CENTRAL/SERN CO...WRN KS...OK PANHANDLE..WRN TX PANHANDLE. CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 376... VALID 230237Z - 230330Z SEVERE POTENTIAL CONTINUES ACROSS PORTIONS NERN NM AND SERN CO...AND MAY SOON SHIFT NEWD ACROSS PORTIONS WRN KS AND WRN OK PANHANDLE. WW REPLACEMENT OR ADDITIONAL WW MAY BE REQUIRED BEFORE 3Z...WHICH IS SCHEDULED EXPIRATION TIME FOR REMAINDER WW 376. BAND OF CONVECTION FROM CENTRAL CO MOUNTAINS SSEWD ACROSS NERN NM IS CONSOLIDATING IN BOTH REFLECTIVITY AND CG LIGHTNING PATTERNS...INDICATING OVERALL INTENSIFICATION. THIS IS OCCURRING AS STRONGEST SUPPORTIVE DEEP-LAYER ASCENT -- ASSOCIATED WITH EJECTING MID-UPPER TROUGH OVER 4-CORNERS REGION -- ALSO LIFTS NEWD. MEANWHILE LOW LEVEL WAA AND ELEVATED MOISTURE TRANSPORT WILL INCREASE OVER CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS IN ASSOCIATION WITH STRENGTHENING SELY LLJ...ALREADY EVIDENT IN PROFILER/VWP DATA. CROSS SECTION OF 00Z RAOBS ALONG DDC-AMA-MAF LINE...AS WELL AS MODIFIED RUC SOUNDINGS...SUGGESTS AIR MASS WILL CONTINUE TO BE DRIER IN LOW-MIDDLE LEVELS WITH SWD EXTENT INTO TX PANHANDLE AND ERN NM...CHARACTERIZED BY RELATIVELY WEAKER MUCAPE...AND THEREFORE LESS FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE. THEREFORE MOST PROBABLE AREA FOR NEW WW IS FROM OK PANHANDLE AND EXTREME NERN NM NWD. ..EDWARDS.. 05/23/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LBF...DDC...GLD...AMA...PUB...BOU...ABQ... 38690596 38590209 40460205 40450261 41700237 41560082 38520025 37450065 36270172 35790249 35660277 35470305 35200347 34880383 36020528 37020568  From mcd at goshenarc.org Tue May 23 04:37:04 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Tue, 23 May 2006 00:37:04 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 230433 SWOMCD SPC MCD 230432 NEZ000-KSZ000-OKZ000-COZ000-TXZ000-NMZ000-230600- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0947 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1132 PM CDT MON MAY 22 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS NRN/ERN CO...NERN NM...OK PANHANDLE...WRN KS...WRN NEB...NWRN TX PANHANDLE. CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 379... VALID 230432Z - 230600Z TWO PRIMARY BANDS OF CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NEWD 35-45 KT ACROSS WW AREA. LEADING BAND -- EVIDENT AT 415Z FROM WALLACE COUNTY KS NNWWD TOWARD PHILLIPS COUNTY CO -- IS EXPECTED TO AFFECT GLD-MCK-OGA AREA WITHIN NEXT 2 HOURS WITH POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING GUSTS AND MRGLLY SVR HAIL. MOST INTENSE/SOLID PORTION OF SECOND BAND WILL MOVE NEWD ACROSS LAA-LIC-GLD TRIANGLE DURING SAME TIME FRAME...HOWEVER POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR ACTIVITY TO STRENGTHEN SWD ACROSS SERN CO INTO SWRN KS WITH TIME. NARROW CORRIDOR OF LOW LEVEL RECOVERY MAY OCCUR BEHIND INITIAL BAND ACROSS NERN CO...IN ASSOCIATION WITH CONTRIBUTION OF 40-50 KT LLJ TO ISENTROPIC ATOP OUTFLOW POOL. HOWEVER...PRIND DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL WITH SECOND BAND WILL DECREASE WITH NWWD EXTENT...AND INCREASING DISTANCE FROM OPTIMAL LOW LEVEL THETAE....BECAUSE OF MORE DEEPLY STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER INHIBITING DOWNDRAFT PENETRATION TO SFC. AIR MASS ACROSS WRN KS AND SERN CO IS CHARACTERIZED BY STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES AROUND 8 DEG C/KM...ATOP LOW LEVEL MOISTURE THAT INCREASES WITH NEWD EXTENT THROUGH WW. EFFECTIVE PARCELS SHOULD REMAIN ROOTED NEAR SFC IN PRECONVECTIVE AIR MASS...WITH MLCAPES 1500-2000 J/KG POSSIBLE NEAR MOIST AXIS...OVER NWRN KS AND SWRN NEB. FARTHER S...STRONG/MRGLLY SVR TSTMS MAY CLIP NERN TX PANHANDLE...PRIMARILY DALLAM/HARTLEY COUNTIES...HOWEVER BEST-ORGANIZED ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN FARTHER N IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO FAVORABLE MOISTURE. ..EDWARDS.. 05/23/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...GID...LBF...DDC...GLD...AMA...PUB...BOU...CYS...ABQ... 36990382 38000320 38900325 39610405 41170271 42950279 42960011 40360015 36990156 35530326  From mcd at goshenarc.org Tue May 23 07:08:13 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Tue, 23 May 2006 03:08:13 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 230705 SWOMCD SPC MCD 230705 NEZ000-KSZ000-SDZ000-COZ000-230830- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0948 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0205 AM CDT TUE MAY 23 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN CO/WRN AND CNTRL NEB/NWRN KS CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 379... VALID 230705Z - 230830Z POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND SEVERE HAIL WILL CONTINUE ACROSS NRN AND CNTRL PORTIONS OF WW 379...PERHAPS EWD INTO CNTRL NEB THROUGH 09-10Z. AN ADDITIONAL WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED ATTM. AS OF 0640Z...REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY INDICATED AN INITIAL BAND OF STRONG TSTMS /LIKELY SLIGHTLY ELEVATED/ FROM ARTHUR/MCPHERSON COUNTIES SWD THROUGH KEITH...PERKINS AND LINCOLN COUNTIES IN NEB MOVING 215/35 KTS. FARTHER TO THE W...A LOWER REFLECTIVITY BOWING LINE EXTENDED FROM WELD AND LOGAN COUNTIES SWD INTO KIT CARSON AND CHEYENNE COUNTIES IN ERN CO...ALSO MOVING ROUGHLY 215/35-40 KTS. DESPITE INFLOW OF UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S DEWPOINTS ALONG SSELY 40-50 KT LLJ INTO THESE CONVECTIVE SYSTEMS...RUC FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT THIS MOISTURE IS RELATIVELY SHALLOW. MOREOVER...RATHER WARM TEMPERATURES IN THE 850-650 MB LAYER ARE RESULTING IN CONSIDERABLE CONVECTIVE INHIBITION DESPITE MUCAPES OF 1000-2000 J/KG. INCREASING MID/HIGH-LEVEL WIND FIELDS AND DEEP-LAYER FORCING FOR ASCENT AHEAD OF NEGATIVELY-TILTED TROUGH LIFTING NEWD THROUGH THE CNTRL ROCKIES SHOULD MAINTAIN ONGOING STORMS NEWD THROUGH WRN INTO CNTRL NEB AND ACROSS NWRN KS EARLY THIS MORNING. MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL AND LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS. SHOULD ONGOING STORMS ORGANIZE A COLD POOL...RESULTING IN A POTENTIALLY MORE WIDESPREAD WIND THREAT...AN ADDITIONAL WW WOULD THEN HAVE TO BE CONSIDERED. ..MEAD.. 05/23/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...GID...LBF...UNR...GLD...BOU...CYS... 40790349 42020325 42990201 42980047 42299931 40949950 39870036 39060107 38620190 38810258  From mcd at goshenarc.org Tue May 23 10:54:05 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Tue, 23 May 2006 06:54:05 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 231051 SWOMCD SPC MCD 231051 NDZ000-231215- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0949 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0551 AM CDT TUE MAY 23 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...N-CNTRL INTO NERN ND CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 231051Z - 231215Z POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED SEVERE HAIL WITH EXIST WITH MOST INTENSE STORMS FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. A WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED. ELEVATED TSTMS CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY THIS MORNING OVER ROLETTE AND TOWNER COUNTIES OF N-CNTRL ND. MESOANALYSIS AND PLAN VIEW VWP/PROFILER DATA INDICATE THAT THIS ACTIVITY IS OCCURRING WITHIN AN AREA OF SURFACE PRESSURE FALLS...INDICATIVE OF STRONG WAA ALONG NOSE OF 40-45 KT SLY LLJ. RUC PROXIMITY SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES COUPLED WITH MOISTENING AROUND 850 MB ARE CONTRIBUTING TO A POTENTIALLY MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS WITH MUCAPES OF 1500-2000 J/KG. LATEST SHORT TERM MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT THE LLJ WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP NEWD THROUGH MID MORNING WITH STRONGEST LOW-LEVEL FORCING FOR ASCENT /VIA WAA AND ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE/ SHIFTING NWD INTO SRN MANITOBA AND WRN ONTARIO. HOWEVER PRIOR TO THIS...ISOLATED SEVERE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS PERSISTING OVER ROLETTE AND TOWNER INTO CAVALIER COUNTIES. ..MEAD.. 05/23/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...FGF...BIS... 49009759 48409767 48229863 48269927 48509967 48759983 48999971  From mcd at goshenarc.org Tue May 23 17:17:25 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Tue, 23 May 2006 13:17:25 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 231714 SWOMCD SPC MCD 231712 NEZ000-SDZ000-KSZ000-231845- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0950 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1212 PM CDT TUE MAY 23 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF CENTRAL AND ERN SD INTO CENTRAL AND ERN NEB CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 231712Z - 231845Z THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP BY 19-20Z ACROSS CENTRAL PORTIONS OF SD AND NEB. WW WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED IN THE NEXT 1 TO 2 HOURS. LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS LOW TO MID 60S DEWPOINTS IN A N-S AXIS ACROSS THE ERN HALVES OF SD AND NEB...AHEAD OF WEAK TROUGH/CONVERGENCE ZONE WITHIN DESTABILIZING WARM SECTOR. STRONG HEATING WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THIS REGION AS MID-LEVEL DRY SLOT CONTINUES SPREADING NEWD -- AHEAD OF CIRCULATION CENTER ALOFT NOW OVER NERN WY/W CENTRAL SD. THOUGH AIRMASS REMAINS CAPPED ATTM...CONTINUED HEATING AND PERSISTENT LARGE-SCALE UVV WILL COMBINE TO WEAKEN CAP...LIKELY RESULTING IN THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT BY MID-AFTERNOON. ALONG WITH INCREASING INSTABILITY...WIND FIELD IS BECOMING MORE FAVORABLE WITH TIME AS STRONGER SWLY FLOW ALOFT SPREADS EWD ATOP LOW-LEVEL SLYS -- RESULTING IN VEERING/SHEARED PROFILES SUPPORTIVE OF SEVERE/SUPERCELL STORMS. THUS...EXPECT DEVELOPING UPDRAFTS TO RAPIDLY INTENSIFY/ACQUIRE ROTATION. THOUGH LOW-LEVEL SHEAR WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF TORNADOES...RELATIVELY DEEP MIXED LAYER SHOULD LIMIT OVERALL TORNADO POTENTIAL. LARGE HAIL SHOULD INITIALLY BE THE PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT...AS CELLULAR CONVECTION IS ANTICIPATED THIS AFTERNOON. WITH A MORE LINEAR CONVECTIVE MODE FORECAST TO EVOLVE WITH TIME...THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS SHOULD ALSO INCREASE. ..GOSS.. 05/23/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...FSD...OAX...TOP...ABR...GID...LBF...UNR... 45259924 45059837 43979709 42629676 40729695 39999759 39929939 41549948 43179980 45360096  From mcd at goshenarc.org Tue May 23 19:30:28 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Tue, 23 May 2006 15:30:28 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 231927 SWOMCD SPC MCD 231925 MNZ000-NDZ000-SDZ000-MTZ000-232130- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0951 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0225 PM CDT TUE MAY 23 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN MT...MUCH OF ND CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 231925Z - 232130Z ISOLATED TSTMS ARE ANTICIPATED TO DEVELOP INVOF SURFACE LOW OVER SERN MT AND ALONG PREFRONTAL TROUGH OVER WCENTRAL ND IN THE NEXT 1-3 HRS. ADDITIONALLY SVR STORMS MAY DEVELOP OUT OF WW 380 INTO ERN ND IN THE NEXT 1-2 HRS. COVERAGE OF SVR MAY BE SUFFICIENTLY HIGH TO WARRANT A WW ISSUANCE...AND AREA WILL CONTINUED TO BE MONITORED FOR THAT POSSIBILITY. 19Z SFC ANALYSIS PLACES A 998 MB SFC LOW OVER SERN MT /NEAR MILES CITY/. A MOIST AXIS WITH DEWPTS IN THE UPPER 50S/LOWER 60S EXTENDED FROM LOW CENTER ESEWD ACROSS ECENTRAL MT INTO NRN/ERN ND. AIRMASS OVER THIS REGION WAS RAPIDLY BECOMING UNCAPPED WITH MUCINH LESS THAN 25 J/KG BASED ON A MODIFIED 18Z GGW SOUNDING. VIS SAT IMAGERY INDICATES CONVECTION WAS BEGINNING TO DEVELOP ALONG PREFRONTAL TROUGH FROM ECENTRAL MT INTO WCENTRAL ND NEAR SFC LOW CENTER. THE STRONGEST CONVERGENCE FOR THE NEXT 1-2 HRS WILL REMAIN JUST AHEAD OF THE PREFRONTAL TROUGH AND INVOF THE SFC LOW CENTER. AS THIS CONVECTION DEVELOPS NEWD INTO THE INSTABILITY AXIS WITH MUCAPES AROUND 2000 J/KG OVER NCENTRAL/NWRN ND AND NERN MT...IT SHOULD INTENSIFY. ALTHOUGH DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL REMAIN MODEST /GIVEN MERIDIONAL MID-HIGH LEVEL FLOW/...COMBINATION OF STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES EVIDENT ON THE 18Z GGW SOUNDING AND DEEPLY MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER WILL SUPPORT THREAT FOR ISOLATED LARGE HAIL/DMGG WIND. ADDITIONALLY ISOLATED SVR STORMS BEGINNING TO DEVELOP IN ERN/CENTRAL SD /WW 380/ MAY MOVE INTO PORTIONS OF ERN ND IN THE NEXT FEW HRS. ..CROSBIE.. 05/23/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...FGF...ABR...BIS...GGW... 49020404 48810512 47200572 46660515 46800362 46660104 46250010 46009980 45869738 46809650 49059734 49000010  From mcd at goshenarc.org Tue May 23 20:03:58 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Tue, 23 May 2006 16:03:58 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 232000 SWOMCD SPC MCD 232000 KSZ000-NEZ000-232200- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0952 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0300 PM CDT TUE MAY 23 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...S CENTRAL NEB/PARTS OF NRN AND CENTRAL KS CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 232000Z - 232200Z SEVERE THREAT IS INCREASING ACROSS S CENTRAL NEB AND SWD INTO PARTS OF KS. NEW WW MAY BE NECESSARY OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR SO. DESPITE PERSISTENT CAP...DEEPENING MIXED LAYER AND INCREASING LARGE-SCALE ASCENT AHEAD OF EJECTING UPPER SHORT-WAVE TROUGH SUGGEST THAT STORMS SHOULD DEVELOP OVER PARTS OF S CENTRAL NEB...AND THEN SWD ACROSS N CENTRAL KS...INVOF COLD FRONT OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. LATEST MCCOOK NEB AND GRENADA PROFILERS INDICATE SWLY MID-LEVEL FLOW IN EXCESS OF 40 KT...WHICH SHOULD SLOWLY SHIFT EWD ATOP INCREASING SLY LOW-LEVEL JET. RESULTING SHEAR WILL SUPPORT A THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS/SUPERCELLS...WITH COVERAGE EXPECTED TO INCREASE THROUGH THE EVENING AS LOW-LEVEL JET/WARM ADVECTION INTENSIFY. IN ADDITION TO LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS ALSO APPEAR LIKELY GIVEN DEEP MIXED LAYER/POTENTIAL FOR EVAPORATIVE COOLING. ..GOSS.. 05/23/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...OAX...TOP...ICT...GID...LBF...DDC...GLD... 41419829 40569715 38679775 37389890 37609975 38690059 40020031 41080039  From mcd at goshenarc.org Tue May 23 20:09:24 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Tue, 23 May 2006 16:09:24 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 232005 SWOMCD SPC MCD 232004 MTZ000-IDZ000-ORZ000-WAZ000-232200- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0953 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0304 PM CDT TUE MAY 23 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN WA...FAR NERN ORE AND THE ID PANHANDLE CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 232004Z - 232200Z TSTMS DEVELOPING OVER THE WRN SLOPES OF THE BLUE MTNS IN NERN ORE/FAR SERN WA SHOULD CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY AND MAY POSE A SVR HAIL THREAT IN THE NEXT FEW HRS. ADDITIONAL STG/ISOLATED SVR STORMS MAY DEVELOP OVER THE MTNS OF NERN WA. ONLY MARGINALLY SVR HAIL IS ANTICIPATED ATTM...AND THUS A WW IS NOT EXPECTED. VIS SAT IMAGERY SHOWS CONVECTION WAS DEVELOPING IN VICINITY OF A SFC LOW OVER NERN ORE. CONVECTIVE INITIATION SEEMS TO BE AIDED BY WLY UPSLOPE FLOW INTO THE BLUE MTNS. ANY OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL DEVELOP NEWD INTO THE ID PANHANDLE. SFC ANALYSIS ALSO PLACES A NARROW CORRIDOR OF HIGHER DEWPTS /LOWER 50S/ ACROSS THE UPPER COLUMBIA RIVER AND SNAKE RIVER VALLEYS OF ERN WA. STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER TROUGH PRESENTLY MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL WA/ORE WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION AND SUPPORT MUCAPES AROUND 1000 J/KG THROUGH THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON. THE MAIN LIMITING FACTOR FOR A GREATER SVR THREAT IS RELATIVELY MARGINAL CLOUD LAYER SHEAR /30 KTS/ PER RECENT VWP AND FCST SOUNDING DATA. ..CROSBIE.. 05/23/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MSO...OTX...PDT... 48861767 48801908 48471917 47781830 47401800 46671757 46201787 45821801 45431728 45821600 46751516 47751589 48871680  From mcd at goshenarc.org Tue May 23 22:08:12 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Tue, 23 May 2006 18:08:12 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 232202 SWOMCD SPC MCD 232201 MNZ000-SDZ000-NDZ000-240000- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0954 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0501 PM CDT TUE MAY 23 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...WCENTRAL/NWRN MN AND PORTIONS OF ERN ND CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 232201Z - 240000Z ISOLATED SVR TSTMS DEVELOPING IN WARM ADVECTION ZONE OVER NERN SD/WCENTRAL MN WILL MOVE NWD INTO NWRN MN/ERN ND OVER THE NEXT 3 HRS. OVERALL SVR THREAT APPEARS MARGINAL THROUGH 00Z AND THUS A WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HRS. AS GREATER MID LEVEL FLOW /AND POTENTIALLY ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE LINE/ APPROACHES LATER THIS EVENING...A WW MAY BE NEEDED AFTER 00Z. LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A WARM/MOIST AXIS EXTENDING NWD FROM WCENTRAL MN INTO NWRN MN/NERN ND. MODERATE INSTABILITY EXISTED IN THIS AREA WITH MLCAPES FROM 1500-2000 J/KG. CONVECTION WAS INCREASING OVER NERN SD/WCENTRAL MN IN AN AREA OF INCREASING WAA ALONG NRN EXTENT OF THE INTENSIFYING LOW LEVEL JET. THIS CONVECTION SHOULD CONTINUE TO DEVELOP NWD INTO THE INSTABILITY AXIS DUE TO PREDOMINANT CLOUD LAYER MERIDIONAL FLOW. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES /7.5 DEG C/KM/ OVER THE REGION WHICH MAY SUPPORT SOME SEVERE HAIL THREAT. HOWEVER...EFFECTIVE SHEAR WAS VERY MARGINAL /25-30 KTS/ DUE TO PRESENCE OF MID-UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS OVER THE AREA. SINCE THESE CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN SO FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HRS...ONLY A MARGINAL SVR THREAT IS ANTICIPATED. ..CROSBIE.. 05/23/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MPX...FGF...ABR... 47029544 47679586 47999674 47599759 47019802 46369787 45729719 45199654 44639599 44769517 45109491 45809489  From mcd at goshenarc.org Tue May 23 22:42:54 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Tue, 23 May 2006 18:42:54 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 232240 SWOMCD SPC MCD 232240 MNZ000-IAZ000-NEZ000-SDZ000-240045- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0955 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0540 PM CDT TUE MAY 23 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS CENTRAL/ERN SD...CENTRAL-ERN NEB...SWRN MN...EXTREME WRN IA. CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 380... VALID 232240Z - 240045Z CONTINUE WW ALONG/AHEAD OF PRIMARY CONVECTIVE BAND...WHICH AT 2220Z WAS INDICATED NEAR A LINE FROM ABR...50 S ONL...EAR. WLY BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS AND DRYING ASSOCIATED WITH COMBINED DRYLINE/FRONT SHOULD REDUCE INSTABILITY...SHEAR AND CONVERGENCE W OF THIS ACTIVITY....MARKEDLY DIMINISHING SVR POTENTIAL. ANOTHER WW MAY BE REQUIRED WITHIN NEXT COUPLE HOURS...E OF THIS ONE ACROSS PORTIONS IA/MN AND/OR REMAINDER ERN NEB. TORNADO POTENTIAL MAY INCREASE LATER THIS EVENING ONCE DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS DROP...WHEN EFFECTIVE PARCELS STILL ARE BASED AT SFC. IN MEANTIME...MAIN THREAT NEXT 1-2 HOURS IS SEVERE DOWNDRAFT WIND...GIVEN LARGE SFC DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS IN INFLOW LAYER AND DEEPLY HEATED/MIXED SUBCLOUD PROFILES. HAIL THREAT OF CONSEQUENCE SHOULD BE ASSOCIATED WITH ANY EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS. MODIFIED 18Z OMA RAOB AND RUC FCST SOUNDINGS INDICATE MLCAPES INCREASING TO AROUND 1500 J/KG NEAR ERN EDGE OF WW IN ASSOCIATION WITH SOMEWHAT MORE ROBUST SFC MOISTURE. VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES ARE STRENGTHENING FROM W-E ACROSS PRE CONVECTIVE AIR MASS AND WILL FAVOR BOTH BOW ECHO AND SUPERCELL PROCESSES. ANY SUSTAINED SUPERCELLS EMBEDDED IN LINE WILL HAVE POTENTIAL TO BECOME SOMEWHAT OUTFLOW DOMINANT AND EVOLVE INTO LEWPS/BOWS. STRONGEST PRESSURE FALLS THIS HOUR EXTEND FROM NERN NEB NWD THROUGH ERN SD...AND SHOULD SHIFT NEWD ACROSS WW AREA....INDICATING POTENTIAL FOR BACKED SFC WINDS AND ENLARGED LOW LEVEL HODOGRAPHS NOW OVER NERN NEB TO SHIFT/EXPAND OVER MORE OF ERN SD. EXPECT EFFECTIVE SHEARS STRENGTHENING TO 40-50 KT AHEAD OF TSTMS...AND 200-300 J/KG SRH IN 0-3 KM LAYER FROM NERN NEB INTO ERN SD. ..EDWARDS.. 05/23/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MPX...FSD...OAX...ABR...GID...LBF... 40939916 42439863 43949841 44789885 45839846 45559655 42949594 41089681  From mcd at goshenarc.org Tue May 23 23:29:44 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Tue, 23 May 2006 19:29:44 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 232325 SWOMCD SPC MCD 232325 NDZ000-MTZ000-240130- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0956 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0625 PM CDT TUE MAY 23 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN MT AND WRN ND CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 382... VALID 232325Z - 240130Z ISOLATED SVR TSTMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE OVER WRN PORTIONS OF WW 382 /ERN MT/ DURING THE NEXT 1-2 HRS. ADDITIONAL ISOLATED SVR STORMS MAY DEVELOP OVER WRN ND IN THE NEXT FEW HRS. HVY RAIN WILL ALSO REMAIN A THREAT ALONG THE WRN EDGE OF WW 382. CONVECTION HAS CONTINUED TO DEVELOP ALONG AN INVERTED TROUGH EXTENDING SFC LOW OVER NRN FALLON COUNTY NWD TO THE CANADIAN BORDER. AS THIS ACTIVITY ROTATES WWD AROUND THE UPPER LOW...IT ENCOUNTERS WEAKER MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES NEAR MID LEVEL DEFORMATION ZONE. CELL TRAINING AND MODEST PW/S WILL FAVOR THE THREAT FOR LOCALLY HVY RAINFALL IN THIS AREA. WHERE THE MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES HAVE ESSENTIALLY REMAINED UNAFFECTED BY PREVIOUS CONVECTION ...THE GREATEST THREAT FOR ISOLATED SEVERE WILL REMAIN NEAR AND JUST WEST THE INVERTED SFC TROUGH OVER FAR ERN MT. FURTHER EAST...MID LEVEL CONVECTION DEVELOPING IN A DEEPLY MIXED ENVIRONMENT OVER SWRN ND MAY BEGIN TO STRENGTHEN AND POSE A MARGINAL DMGG WIND THREAT OVER NWRN ND /ERN PORTION OF WW 382/...AS SLIGHTLY HIGHER INSTABILITY /INCLUDING HIGHER DCAPE/ EXISTS IN THIS AREA. ..CROSBIE.. 05/23/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...BIS...BYZ...GGW... 48940495 48730629 46340595 46500243 49050224  From mcd at goshenarc.org Wed May 24 00:16:56 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Tue, 23 May 2006 20:16:56 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 240012 SWOMCD SPC MCD 240011 NEZ000-KSZ000-240215- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0957 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0711 PM CDT TUE MAY 23 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS S-CENTRAL/SERN NE...N-CENTRAL THROUGH SWRN KS. CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 381... VALID 240011Z - 240215Z SRN END OF NEARLY SOLID LINE OF STRONG-SVR TSTMS -- NEAR NEB BORDER -- WILL CONTINUE MOVING EWD-ENEWD ACROSS NRN PORTIONS WW WITH DAMAGING WIND AND OCCASIONAL HAIL ARE POSSIBLE. VIS IMAGERY...MODIFIED RAOBS AND RUC SOUNDINGS SUGGEST CINH HAS WEAKENED CONSIDERABLY ACROSS PORTIONS SWRN THROUGH N-CENTRAL KS AS SFC COLD FRONT APCHS PREFRONTAL WIND SHIFT/DRYLINE. SVR TSTM POTENTIAL MAY EXTEND SWWD ACROSS PORTIONS SWRN/S-CENTRAL KS DURING NEXT 2-3 HOURS BEFORE SFC DIABATIC COOLING ONCE AGAIN STRENGTHENS CINH. ADDITIONAL OR REPLACEMENT WW MAY BE REQUIRED. DEEP-LAYER VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES SHOULD REMAIN MRGL ACROSS THIS REGION WITH 30-35 KT EFFECTIVE SHEAR IN RUC SOUNDINGS AND 00Z DDC RAOB. HOWEVER...0-3 KM HODOGRAPHS WILL ENLARGE E OF FRONT/DRYLINE AFTER SUNSET WHEN LLJ INCREASES...AND DEEP-LAYER DIRECTIONAL SHEAR INCREASES SWD AND EWD BECAUSE OF MORE WLY MIDLEVEL FLOW COMPONENT. BACKBUILDING ACTIVITY INITIALLY WILL BE HIGH BASED AND OUTFLOW/COLD POOL PRONE BECAUSE OF DEEPLY MIXED SUBCLOUD LAYER...HOWEVER SOME DISCRETE TSTMS MAY DEVELOP ALONG/AHEAD OF DRYLINE AND BECOME SUSTAINED ON NOCTURNAL LLJ. ..EDWARDS.. 05/24/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...OAX...TOP...ICT...GID...DDC...GLD... 37790058 38509988 39719954 40779863 40979643 40009647 39999622 39559624 39409672 39049637 38839648 38859688 38599694 38589788 37450077  From mcd at goshenarc.org Wed May 24 03:14:59 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Tue, 23 May 2006 23:14:59 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 240306 SWOMCD SPC MCD 240306 MNZ000-IAZ000-MOZ000-NEZ000-KSZ000-SDZ000-NDZ000-240500- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0958 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1006 PM CDT TUE MAY 23 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS SWRN-CENTRAL-NERN KS...SERN TO EXTREME E-CENTRAL NEB...EXTREME NWRN MO...WRN-CENTRAL IA...WRN-CENTRAL MN...EXTREME E-CENTRAL ND. CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 383...384... VALID 240306Z - 240500Z LINE OF TSTMS -- CONTAINING INTERMITTENT BOW/LEWP FORMATIONS AND RESPONSIBLE FOR NUMEROUS REPORTS OF DAMAGING WIND AND HAIL DURING LAST 2-3 HOURS -- IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MOVING EWD ACROSS DISCUSSION AREA THROUGH REMAINDER LATE EVENING HOURS. PRIND CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION HAS PEAKED...PARTICULARLY FOR NRN PART OVER MN/ERN ND...WHERE TSTMS WILL MOVE INTO ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY WEAKER BUOYANCY. HOWEVER...ENOUGH SVR POTENTIAL MAY REMAIN TO WARRANT ADDITIONAL WW ISSUANCE OVER PORTIONS NERN KS...NWRN MO AND/OR WRN/CENTRAL IA. FOR NEXT 2-3 HOURS...DAMAGING GUST POTENTIAL SHOULD PERSIST...PARTICULARLY WITH LEWP FEATURES SUCH AS THOSE MOVING ACROSS LNK AREA AS OF 3Z. AIR MASS OVER MOST OF AREA SHOULD BE CHARACTERIZED BY STRONG LOW LEVEL SHEAR...MLCAPES AROUND 1000 J/KG AND RELATIVELY WELL MIXED SUBCLOUD LAYERS -- ABOVE SHALLOW LAYER OF SFC COOLING. MLCAPES/MUCAPES SHOULD BE SOMEWHAT LARGER ACROSS WRN/CENTRAL IA INVOF LOW LEVEL MOIST AXIS...EVIDENT AT SFC AND ON ANALYZED 00Z 850/925 MB CHARTS. EFFECTIVE INFLOW PARCELS SHOULD BECOME MORE ELEVATED WITH TIME AND WITH EWD EXTENT ACROSS MN/IA...BUT WITH SUFFICIENT ELEVATED MUCAPE TO SUSTAIN TSTM POTENTIAL. THEREFORE...WHILE TSTMS MAY PERSIST...OVERALL SEVERE POTENTIAL SHOULD DIMINISH GRADUALLY BY APPROXIMATELY 6Z. ..EDWARDS.. 05/24/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...DLH...MPX...DMX...EAX...FGF...FSD...OAX...TOP...ICT...ABR...GID...DDC... 37520023 38229920 39649776 41609657 43249629 43899706 44419616 45319624 46369608 47239767 47769515 46959390 45379406 43919431 42149429 40569492 39999533 37739773 37389890  From mcd at goshenarc.org Wed May 24 06:59:51 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Wed, 24 May 2006 02:59:51 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 240657 SWOMCD SPC MCD 240656 MOZ000-IAZ000-KSZ000-NEZ000-240830- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0959 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0156 AM CDT WED MAY 24 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...S-CNTRL IA INTO NWRN MO AND ERN KS CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 240656Z - 240830Z POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL WILL EXIST WITH MOST INTENSE STORMS EARLY THIS MORNING. A NEW WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED ATTM. AS OF 0640Z...REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY SHOWED AN MCS ORGANIZED ALONG A COLD POOL FROM NEAR DSM SWWD TO APPROXIMATELY 35 NE STJ MOVING GENERALLY EWD AT 35 KTS. MESOANALYSIS SUGGESTS THAT NRN PORTION OF THIS COMPLEX IS REACHING EFFECTIVE WARM FRONT /EXTENDING FROM N-CNTRL IA SSEWD THROUGH ERN MO/...DELINEATING THE ERN EDGE OF PRIMARY INSTABILITY AXIS. THEREFORE...EXPECT ONGOING STORMS ALONG AND N OF THE I-80 CORRIDOR TO WEAKEN AS THEY PROGRESS E OF A I-35 LONGITUDE. FARTHER TO THE SW...MORE DISCRETE STORM DEVELOPMENT HAS OCCURRED WITHIN THE PAST HOUR OVER FAR NERN KS /E OF TOP/...PRESUMABLY ALONG SRN FRINGE OF STRONGER HEIGHT FALLS ASSOCIATED WITH EVOLVING UPPER LOW OVER THE DAKOTAS. 40-50 KT SSWLY LLJ IS MAINTAINING AN INFLUX OF 60-65 F DEWPOINTS INTO THIS REGION...THOUGH RUC FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT CAPPING INVERSION OBSERVED ON THE 24/00Z TOP SOUNDING STILL EXISTS TO SOME DEGREE IN THE 850-650 MB LAYER. THEREFORE...DESPITE RELATIVELY STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR /PER LATHROP MO PROFILER/ AND MUCAPES OF 1000-2000 J/KG...THE REMAINING CAP MAY TEND TO LIMIT STORM ORGANIZATION/INTENSITY. AN ADDITIONAL WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED...THOUGH CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED. ..MEAD.. 05/24/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...SGF...DMX...EAX...OAX...TOP...ICT... 37859751 39089654 40339491 40919390 40679328 40009292 38699401 37899518 37649623 37549675  From mcd at goshenarc.org Wed May 24 16:37:49 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Wed, 24 May 2006 12:37:49 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 241627 SWOMCD SPC MCD 241627 ILZ000-IAZ000-MOZ000-241830- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0960 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1127 AM CDT WED MAY 24 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL/NE MO INTO PARTS OF SRN IA...PARTS OF WRN IL CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 241627Z - 241830Z TIMING OF MORE SUBSTANTIAL INCREASE IN SEVERE THREAT IS STILL A BIT UNCERTAIN...BUT TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF A WW. BOUNDARY LAYER CONTINUES TO MOISTEN ON SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW... ACROSS THE OZARK PLATEAU/LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY INTO PARTS OF THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. DEW POINTS ARE NOW IN THE MID/UPPER 60S ACROSS MUCH OF WESTERN MISSOURI INTO SOUTHERN IOWA...WHERE MIXED LAYER CAPE IS BECOMING MAXIMIZED BENEATH NORTHEASTERN PERIPHERY OF ELEVATED MIXED LAYER WHICH HAS ADVECTED OFF THE MEXICAN PLATEAU REGION. THIS IS STILL PROVIDING SUBSTANTIAL INHIBITION...BUT AN AREA OF STRONGER MID/UPPER FORCING FOR UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION...TO THE SOUTHEAST OF NORTHERN PLAINS CLOSED LOW...APPEARS TO BE SHIFTING EAST NORTHEAST OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS. MODELS GENERALLY SUGGEST THIS WILL PROVIDE SUFFICIENT MID-LEVEL COOLING/LIFT TO WEAKEN CAP...AND SUPPORT INCREASING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL/NORTHEAST MISSOURI INTO SOUTHERN IOWA...LIKELY BY 20-21Z...PERHAPS AS EARLY AS 18-19Z. INITIATION MAY ALREADY BE UNDERWAY EAST OF KANSAS CITY. THIS SEEMS LIKELY TO BE BASED ABOVE LINGER RADIATIONAL INVERSION...BUT WITH CONTINUED HEATING...STORMS WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY BASED IN BOUNDARY LAYER WITH CAPE IN EXCESS OF 2000 J/KG. SHEAR PROFILES BENEATH MODERATELY STRONG CYCLONIC MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF ISOLATED SUPERCELLS WITH INITIAL ACTIVITY...BEFORE CONSOLIDATION INTO LARGER CONVECTIVE SYSTEM OCCURS LATER THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. LARGE HAIL WILL ACCOMPANY STRONGER STORMS THROUGH MID AFTERNOON...WITH A RISK FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. GIVEN FAVORABLE LOW-LEVEL THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES... LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPHS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES IN LONGER LIVED SUPERCELLS. ..KERR.. 05/24/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LSX...DVN...SGF...DMX...EAX... 39519422 40139394 40979313 41849265 41969184 41249099 40249104 39159166 38679222 38619303 38779383 38959425 39209415  From mcd at goshenarc.org Wed May 24 18:32:49 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Wed, 24 May 2006 14:32:49 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 241830 SWOMCD SPC MCD 241829 MOZ000-ILZ000-ARZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-242030- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0961 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0129 PM CDT WED MAY 24 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTHERN MISSOURI CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 241829Z - 242030Z STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE OVER SOUTHERN MISSOURI THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS THE MAIN THREAT. A WW MAY BE REQUIRED LATER THIS AFTERNOON...POSSIBLY BY 19-21Z. CURRENT MESOANALYSIS INDICATES MLCAPE VALUES IN SOUTHERN MISSOURI TO BE APPROACHING 2000 J/KG AND THE AIRMASS IS NOW MODERATELY UNSTABLE. THE AREA IS STILL CAPPED WITH SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW 80S F...BUT AS DAYTIME HEATING CONTINUES INTO THE LOW 90S F...THE CAP IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH...ALLOWING FOR STORMS TO DEVELOP IN WHAT WILL BE A VERY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH MUCAPE VALUES APPROACHING 3500 J/KG BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. THE VERTICAL SHEAR STRUCTURE IS FAIRLY UNIDIRECTIONAL...HOWEVER...SPEED SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH A MID-LEVEL JET OF 35-50 KTS OVER THE AREA SUGGESTS STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP COULD HAVE SOME ORGANIZATION...WITH THE MAIN CONVECTIVE MODE LIKELY TO BE MULTICELLULAR. LOCALIZED LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS ARE EXPECTED WITH STRONGER STORMS. ..LEVIT.. 05/24/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...PAH...LSX...LZK...SGF...EAX...TSA... 38209461 38339386 38409257 38449100 38169022 37819000 37359006 36639050 36499204 36529334 36569457 37109466 37809466  From mcd at goshenarc.org Wed May 24 18:40:23 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Wed, 24 May 2006 14:40:23 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 241837 SWOMCD SPC MCD 241837 WIZ000-ILZ000-IAZ000-MNZ000-242000- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0962 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0137 PM CDT WED MAY 24 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...WRN WI...ERN IA...NRN IL CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 241837Z - 242000Z TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF ONE OR MORE WWS. NARROWING TONGUE OF MOISTURE EAST OF OCCLUDED SURFACE LOW IS BECOMING FOCUS FOR DESTABILIZATION ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE STILL FAIRLY STEEP ALONG AN AXIS ACROSS EASTERN IOWA INTO PARTS OF WESTERN IOWA...WHERE SURFACE HEATING IS CONTRIBUTING TO INCREASING BOUNDARY LAYER BASED INSTABILITY. MIXED LAYER CAPE IS ALREADY IN EXCESS OF 1000 J/KG... AND COULD...AT LEAST LOCALLY...APPROACH 2000 J/KG BY LATE AFTERNOON. UNCERTAINTY EXISTS...BUT MID-LEVEL SUBSIDENCE MAY BE INHIBITIVE OF VIGOROUS DEEP CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IN THE SHORT TERM. HOWEVER ...AS THE CLOSED LOW CONTINUES TO SHIFT EAST OF THE DAKOTAS... INCREASED MID/UPPER FORCING SEEMS LIKELY TO SUPPORT AT LEAST SCATTERED STORMS BY 21-22Z...IF NOT BEFORE. AS ACTIVITY FORMS...MODERATELY SHEARED REGIME IN EXIT REGION OF MID-LEVEL JET STREAK PROGRESSING THROUGH THE MID MISSOURI VALLEY WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR UPDRAFT ROTATION. ISOLATED SUPERCELLS ARE POSSIBLE...WITH ENHANCED RISK FOR LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS... POSSIBLY ISOLATED TORNADOES. ..KERR.. 05/24/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...GRB...LOT...MKX...DVN...DLH...ARX...MPX...DMX... 45889286 46049131 45418971 44718931 43208926 41708967 41269031 41259193 41469243 42799163 44899147  From mcd at goshenarc.org Wed May 24 19:26:23 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Wed, 24 May 2006 15:26:23 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 241923 SWOMCD SPC MCD 241923 ILZ000-MOZ000-242100- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0963 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0223 PM CDT WED MAY 24 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...MO...IL CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 385... VALID 241923Z - 242100Z CONTINUE WW. ADDITIONAL WW/S/ WILL BE NEEDED TO THE EAST BY LATE AFTERNOON. AREA OF STRONGER MID/UPPER FORCING CONTINUES TO DEVELOP EASTWARD THROUGH THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...WELL TO THE SOUTHEAST OF MAIN CLOSED LOW. THIS IS SUPPORTING ONGOING INCREASING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT...ROUGHLY CENTERED NEAR THE QUINCY/HANNIBAL AREA. ACTIVITY MAY NOT BE COMPLETELY SURFACE-BASED JUST YET...BUT SHOULD BECOME SO SHORTLY...WITH ADDITIONAL HEATING AND FORCING ALONG CONVECTIVE OUTFLOWS. EMBEDDED WITHIN MOIST AIR MASS WITH MIXED LAYER CAPE OF 2000 TO 3000 J/KG...WHICH HAS NOW SPREAD THROUGH MUCH OF ILLINOIS...EVOLUTION OF GROWING/EXPANDING CONVECTIVE CLUSTER NOW SEEMS LIKELY TO OCCUR FAIRLY QUICKLY. PORTIONS OF EVOLVING CONVECTIVE SYSTEM WILL PROBABLY BEGIN DEVELOPING EAST OF WW 385...INTO THE SPRINGFIELD/DECATUR AREAS OF CENTRAL ILLINOIS...AND AREAS NEAR/NORTHWEST OF ST. LOUIS BY 21Z. LARGE HAIL...ISOLATED TORNADOES REMAIN MAIN THREAT NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS...BUT DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL SHOULD INCREASE TOWARD 25/00Z. ..KERR.. 05/24/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...PAH...ILX...LSX...DVN...SGF...EAX... 39159252 40749006 40038781 38698787 38018918 38329101 38039260 38459350  From mcd at goshenarc.org Wed May 24 21:30:13 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Wed, 24 May 2006 17:30:13 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 242126 SWOMCD SPC MCD 242126 INZ000-MIZ000-ILZ000-242300- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0964 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0426 PM CDT WED MAY 24 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...IND/IL CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 387... VALID 242126Z - 242300Z A LARGE CLUSTER OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EWD AND SHOULD BEGIN TO AFFECT WRN IND BY EARLY EVENING. THE SEVERE THREAT SHOULD EXPAND EWD OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AND A WW WILL BE ISSUED SHORTLY ACROSS PARTS OF IND. LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A COLD FRONT EXTENDING SSWWD FROM ERN IA ACROSS NRN MO WITH A WARM FRONT LOCATED FROM SRN WI SSEWD INTO WRN IND. THE WARM SECTOR IS CHARACTERIZED BY MODERATE INSTABILITY AND SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S F. AS THE WARM FRONT MOVES EWD...INSTABILITY SHOULD INCREASE ACROSS IND SUSTAINING THE MCS EARLY THIS EVENING. IN ADDITION...MODERATE VERTICAL SHEAR IN PLACE SHOULD SUSTAIN A SUPERCELL THREAT WITH LARGE HAIL AND WIND DAMAGE LIKELY WITH THE STRONGER STORMS. AN ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY AS THE LOW-LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS EARLY THIS EVENING ACROSS THE REGION. ..BROYLES.. 05/24/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LMK...IWX...IND...PAH...LOT...ILX...LSX... 38778880 39428943 40718917 41928831 42198704 41798551 40838498 39618540 38738633 38498765  From mcd at goshenarc.org Wed May 24 23:27:44 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Wed, 24 May 2006 19:27:44 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 242325 SWOMCD SPC MCD 242324 WIZ000-ILZ000-250100- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0966 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0624 PM CDT WED MAY 24 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN WI...FAR NE IL...WRN LAKE MICHIGAN CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 242324Z - 250100Z THE SEVERE THREAT SHOULD INCREASE ACROSS ERN WI...FAR NE IL AND WRN LAKE MICHIGAN OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS A LINE MOVES IN FROM THE WEST. A WW SHOULD BECOME NECESSARY EARLY THIS EVENING ACROSS THE REGION. A LINEAR MCS IS CURRENTLY ONGOING IN SCNTRL WI AND SHOULD CONTINUE MOVING EWD...AFFECTING THE WRN SHORELINE OF LAKE MICHIGAN LATER THIS EVENING. THE AIRMASS AHEAD OF THE LINE IS MODERATELY UNSTABLE SUGGESTING THE LINE SHOULD CONTINUE TO BE SUSTAINED THROUGH THE EVENING. IN ADDITION...OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS SHOWS A 50 KT MID-LEVEL JET NOSING INTO THE REGION FROM THE SOUTHWEST WHICH IS ENHANCING VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES. REGIONAL WSR-88D VWPS SHOW 40-45 KT OF 0-6 KM SHEAR SUGGESTING SUPERCELLS WILL CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE EMBEDDED IN THE LINE. ALTHOUGH SOME WEAKENING OF THE LINE MAY OCCUR AS THE LINE APPROACHES THE MORE STABLE AIR OVER WRN LAKE MICHIGAN...LARGE HAIL AND WIND DAMAGE MAY CONTINUE WITH THE STRONGER CELLS UNTIL THE LINE MOVES OFFSHORE. ..BROYLES.. 05/24/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...GRB...LOT...MKX... 42228819 42508906 42938943 43748954 44458943 44858886 44998816 44798728 44548691 43828658 43018663 42468719  From mcd at goshenarc.org Thu May 25 01:26:32 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Wed, 24 May 2006 21:26:32 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 250125 SWOMCD SPC MCD 250125 OKZ000-KSZ000-250300- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0967 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0825 PM CDT WED MAY 24 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...OK CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 250125Z - 250300Z ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT MAY OCCUR LATE THIS EVENING ACROSS NRN AND WRN OK WITH A POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. HOWEVER...STORM COVERAGE SHOULD REMAIN TOO ISOLATED TO WARRANT A WW. A MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIRMASS IS CURRENTLY IN PLACE ACROSS OK AND NORTH TX WHERE MLCAPE VALUES RANGE FROM 2000 TO 2500 J/KG. OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS CURRENTLY SHOWS A WEAK CAPPING INVERSION PRESENT WITH SEVERAL WEAKNESSES IN THE CAP OVER NCNTRL OK AND NEAR THE RED RIVER IN NW TX. AS THE CUMULUS CONTINUES TO TOWER...A FEW STORMS MAY INITIATE BUT SHOULD REMAIN VERY ISOLATED DUE TO THE LACK OF LARGE-SCALE ASCENT ACROSS THE REGION. THE MOST LIKELY POINT OF INITIATION APPEARS TO BE IN NRN OK NEAR A COLD FRONT. ALTHOUGH REGIONAL PROFILERS SHOW ABOUT 30 KT OF VERTICAL SHEAR...THE MODERATE TO STRONG INSTABILITY IN PLACE SUGGESTS SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT WILL BE LIKELY UPON INITIATION. STEEP LAPSE RATES SHOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR HAIL AND/OR ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WITH ANY STORM THAT DEVELOPS. ..BROYLES.. 05/25/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...TSA...ICT...OUN... 37019704 36779656 36379652 35839696 35279803 34949898 35129963 35569986 36239964 36919880 37029768  From mcd at goshenarc.org Thu May 25 02:01:14 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Wed, 24 May 2006 22:01:14 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 250159 SWOMCD SPC MCD 250159 KYZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-250330- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0968 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0859 PM CDT WED MAY 24 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...FAR SRN IND AND NRN KY CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 390... VALID 250159Z - 250330Z A BOW ECHO WILL CONTINUE EWD ACROSS FAR SRN IND AND INTO NRN KY WITH A POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE AND HAIL. THE THREAT MAY EXTEND AS FAR EAST AS LOUISVILLE BUT WEAKENING OF THE LINE IS ANTICIPATED AS THE LINE MOVES EWD INTO DECREASING INSTABILITY. LATEST SFC ANALYSIS CURRENTLY SHOWS A WARM FRONT EXTENDING SWD ACROSS WRN IND INTO WRN KY. MODERATE INSTABILITY IS LOCATED WEST OF THE FRONT WITH A TIGHT INSTABILITY GRADIENT PRESENT ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THE LINEAR MCS IS MOVING EWD ALONG THE INSTABILITY GRADIENT WITH A 50 KT MID-LEVEL JET LOCATED JUST BEHIND THE MCS. THE UPPER-SYSTEM ASSOCIATED WITH THE JET IS ENHANCING LIFT AND SHEAR WHICH MAY SUSTAIN THE SEVERE THREAT WITH THE MCS FOR ANOTHER HOUR OR SO. HOWEVER...AS THE LINEAR MCS MOVES INTO WEAKENING INSTABILITY ACROSS NRN KY AND SERN IND...THE SEVERE THREAT SHOULD BEGIN TO DIMINISH ACROSS THE REGION. ..BROYLES.. 05/25/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...ILN...LMK...IND...PAH...ILX... 37458531 37368758 38018819 38568802 38828725 38838574 38488498 37818492  From mcd at goshenarc.org Fri May 26 03:20:17 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Thu, 25 May 2006 23:20:17 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 260317 SWOMCD SPC MCD 260317 MOZ000-ARZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-260515- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0980 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1017 PM CDT THU MAY 25 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...SRN KS / NRN OK / SWRN MO / NWRN AR CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 396...399... VALID 260317Z - 260515Z SEVERE THREAT WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE NIGHT...WITH WIND AND HAIL ACROSS KS/OK. AN ISOLATED TORNADO MAY OCCUR WITH ACTIVITY OVER SWRN MO / NWRN AR. ADDITIONAL WATCHES MAY BE REQUIRED. SWLY LOW LEVEL JET WILL HELP ADVECT UNSTABLE AIR NWD ALONG WARM FRONT FROM SRN KS/NRN OK INTO SWRN MO/NWRN AR. THIS WILL ALLOW STORMS OVER SRN KS TO PERSIST AND PERHAPS BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED AS THEY PROPAGATE EWD...AND EVENTUALLY SEWD INTO NERN OK DUE TO STRONGER NWLY FLOW ALOFT. DAMAGING WINDS AND SOME HAIL WOULD OCCUR. FARTHER E...CLUSTER OF SUPERCELLS WILL PERSIST OVER SWRN MO INTO NWRN AR...BEING FED HIGH THETA-E AIR ON VEERING LOW LEVEL JET. AREA PROFILERS SHOW FAVORABLE SHEAR FOR CONTINUED ROTATION WITHIN THE STRONGER STORMS WITH THE THREAT OF AN ISOLATED TORNADO. ..JEWELL.. 05/26/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...PAH...MEG...LSX...LZK...SGF...TSA...TOP...ICT...OUN...DDC...AMA... 36489991 37240062 38739971 38769847 38229621 37599289 37239064 35969163 35809416 36309855  From mcd at goshenarc.org Fri May 26 06:14:30 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Fri, 26 May 2006 02:14:30 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 260611 SWOMCD SPC MCD 260611 VAZ000-NCZ000-WVZ000-TNZ000-KYZ000-260745- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0981 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0111 AM CDT FRI MAY 26 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS NERN TN...NWRN NC...S-CENTRAL/SWRN VA...EXTREME SRN WV...EXTREME SERN KY. CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 398... VALID 260611Z - 260745Z REMAINDER WW SHOULD BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AS SCHEDULED AT 7Z. SVR POTENTIAL IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH WITH TIME WITH ANY CONVECTION STILL LINGERING IN WW BY THEN...THOUGH MRGL WIND/HAIL THREAT MAY SHIFT/DEVELOP SEWD ACROSS PORTIONS NERN TN...EXTREME NWRN NC AND WRN VA. ADDITIONAL WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED ATTM FOR THIS REGION. PRIMARY BAND OF CONVECTION NOW EXITING ERN KY SHOULD MOVE ACROSS PORTIONS EXTREME SWRN VA AND NWRN TN. GENERAL WARMING TREND IS NOTED IN CLOUD TOPS ON IR IMAGERY. THIS ACTIVITY MAY REACH EXTREME NWRN NC ALSO...BUT PROBABILITIES FOR SEVERE IN SUCH AN EVENT APPEARS SMALL BECAUSE OF OUTFLOW AIR FROM ACTIVITY FARTHER E. MEANWHILE...OCCASIONAL STG OR MRGLLY SVR GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY ON HIGHER/EXPOSED W FACES OF RIDGES. ADDITIONAL MULTICELLULAR TSTMS W AND N CSV MAY BRIEFLY INTENSIFY UPON INTERACTING WITH OUTFLOW FROM ERN KY BAND...BUT SVR POTENTIAL APPEARS POORLY ORGANIZED ATTM. SCATTERED TSTMS OVER WRN VA ALREADY HAVE PRODUCED OUTFLOW BOUNDARY -- EVIDENT IN REFLECTIVITY ANIMATIONS -- THAT IS MOVING SEWD TOWARD VA/NC BORDER W DAN. TSTMS IN THIS REGION SHOULD REMAIN OUTFLOW DOMINANT. HOWEVER...GENERAL DECREASE IN POTENTIAL STRENGTH OF SFC GUSTS IS EXPECTED BECAUSE OF STABILIZING EFFECTS OF DEEPENING LAYER OF DIABATICALLY COOLED AIR NEAR SFC. ELEVATED MUCAPES DECREASE FROM AROUND 1500 J/KG OVER E-CENTRAL TN TO LESS THAN 500 J/KG IN SWRN VA. ..EDWARDS.. 05/26/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...AKQ...RAH...RNK...RLX...GSP...MRX...JKL... 36878444 37438286 37398229 37248136 37197853 36507908 36398013 36148285 35868396 36548447  From mcd at goshenarc.org Fri May 26 07:14:51 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Fri, 26 May 2006 03:14:51 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 260712 SWOMCD SPC MCD 260712 KSZ000-OKZ000-260845- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0982 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0212 AM CDT FRI MAY 26 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS SRN KS AND NRN OK. CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 399... VALID 260712Z - 260845Z PRIND REMAINDER WW WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 8Z AS SCHEDULED. ADDITIONAL WW MAY NOT BE NECESSARY BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR. ISOLATED/MRGL SVR HAIL AND STRONG GUSTS MAY CONTINUE WITH SOME CONVECTION ACROSS THIS REGION...HOWEVER POTENTIAL FOR ORGANIZED SEVERE HAS DIMINISHED CONSIDERABLY NOW THAT BULK OF TSTM COMPLEX IS LOCATED WELL BEHIND ITS OWN GUST FRONT...AND IS LIKELY TO REMAIN SO. REFLECTIVITY ANIMATIONS AS OF 7Z SHOW OUTFLOW ARC EXTENDING FROM ERN PORTIONS BUTLER/COWLEY COUNTIES KS SWWD ACROSS SRN KAY...NWRN NOBLE AND NRN GARFIELD COUNTIES OK. GUSTS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS OUTFLOW HAVE BEEN BELOW 50 KT SVR CRITERIA AT ASOS AND OK MESONET STATIONS...AND SHOULD REMAIN SO AS GUST FRONT SURGES FARTHER EWD AND SWD AWAY FROM PARENT CONVECTION. ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY WITH HAIL POTENTIAL MAY DEVELOP ATOP OUTFLOW POOL...ACROSS KS/OK BORDER REGION FROM COMANCHE/WOODS COUNTY LINE EWD. THESE TSTMS WOULD BE SUPPORTED BY ELEVATED LOW LEVEL WAA AND DESTABILIZATION ASSOCIATED WITH 30-40 KT LLJ...EVIDENT IN VCI PROFILER DATA. MUCAPES AOA 3000 J/KG MAY REMAIN INVOF DECELERATING CENTRAL PORTIONS OUTFLOW BOUNDARY OVER N-CENTRAL OK...WEAKENING TO 1000-1500 J/KG N OF BOUNDARY OVER SW KS. LLJ IS FCST TO VEER SOMEWHAT AND REMAIN STRONGEST ACROSS NW OK...WEAKENING WITH EWD EXTENT. STRONGER STORM-RELATIVE INFLOW WITH WWD EXTENT WOULD FAVOR NEWER ACTIVITY ALONG AND W OF WRN PORTION OF MCS...AS OPPOSED TO TSTMS ASSOCIATED WITH REMNANTS OF ORIGINAL MCS. ..EDWARDS.. 05/26/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...TSA...TOP...ICT...OUN...DDC... 37089925 37329912 37319838 37519759 37879718 38389711 38579682 38299624 37219604 36609632 36209717 36179828 36419942 37009927  From mcd at goshenarc.org Fri May 26 08:26:02 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Fri, 26 May 2006 04:26:02 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 260816 SWOMCD SPC MCD 260816 ARZ000-MOZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-261015- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0983 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0316 AM CDT FRI MAY 26 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS SWRN MO...NWRN AR...NERN OK...SERN KS. CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 400... VALID 260816Z - 261015Z PRIMARY THREAT HAS BEEN AND WILL CONTINUE TO BE HEAVY RAIN RATES LOCALLY 2-3 INCHES/HOUR...AS SLOW MOVING TSTMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP/TRAIN OVER SOME OF SAME AREAS OF NEWTON/JASPER COUNTIES...WITH SOME OF LAWRENCE/MCDONALD COUNTIES POSSIBLY BEING AFFECTED AS WELL. SVR POTENTIAL APPEARS CONFINED TO MRGL HAIL...WITH OCCASIONAL STRONG GUSTS POSSIBLE. BECAUSE OF ISOLATED NATURE AND SMALL COVERAGE OF ANY REMAINING SVR THREAT...BULK OF WW SHOULD BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AS SCHEDULED AT 10Z...ALTHOUGH IT MAY BE LOCALLY EXTENDED FOR 1-2 HOURS ON A COUNTY BY COUNTY BASIS IF NECESSARY. REFLECTIVITY LOOPS AND MESOANALYSIS SHOWS OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ASSOCIATED WITH SWRN MO CONVECTION MOVING WWD ACROSS PORTIONS CRAIG COUNTY OK...AND LARGER/STRONGER OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM KS/OK BORDER MCS CONTINUING TO SURGE EWD ACROSS OSAGE/WASHINGTON COUNTIES. ADDITIONAL TSTMS MAY DEVELOP DURING OR SHORTLY AFTER COLLISION OF THESE BOUNDARIES...WHICH SHOULD OCCUR AT 830-845Z OVER ERN NOWATA/WRN CRAIG COUNTIES OK AND MONTGOMERY COUNTY KS. 25-30 KT LOW LEVEL FLOW JUST ABOVE SFC -- AS EVIDENT IN HKL PROFILER -- SHOULD HELP TO MAINTAIN FAVORABLE STORM RELATIVE INFLOW AMIDST RICH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...WITH 850 MB DEW POINTS 11-15C IN RUC SOUNDINGS AND PW 1.1-1.4 INCH FROM GPS DATA. ELEVATED MUCAPES 2000-3000 J/KG MAY SUPPORT POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT FARTHER NE ACROSS SERN KS AS WELL. MAIN THREAT WOULD BE MRGL HAIL....WITH EFFECTIVE BULK SHEARS ONLY 20-30 KT. ..EDWARDS.. 05/26/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...SGF...TSA...ICT... 37879574 37599426 36729352 36339388 35889532 36149660 37139593  From mcd at goshenarc.org Fri May 26 09:01:13 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Fri, 26 May 2006 05:01:13 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 260857 SWOMCD SPC MCD 260857 TNZ000-GAZ000-ALZ000-MSZ000-261030- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0984 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0357 AM CDT FRI MAY 26 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS SRN TN...EXTREME NRN AL...EXTREME N-CENTRAL/NERN MS. CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 401... VALID 260857Z - 261030Z BULK OF REMAINDER OF WW MAY BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AS SCHEDULED AT 10Z...WITH 1-2 HOUR LOCAL EXTENSION OPTION AVAILABLE IF NECESSARY. TSTMS ARE EVIDENT ALONG/BEHIND MUCH OF OUTFLOW BOUNDARY THAT IS MOVING SEWD/SWD THROUGH AREA BETWEEN CHA-CSV...AND ACROSS NRN AL AND SWRN TN. IR CLOUD TOPS HAVE WARMED AND REFLECTIVELY HAS WEAKENED OVERALL WITH MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY...EXCEPT FOR STRONG-SEVERE LINE SEGMENT NOW MOVING SSEWD ACROSS SWRN TN TOWARD MS BORDER. THIS ACTIVITY HAS BEST ACCESS TO WLY 20-30 KT LLJ AND ASSOCIATED PLUME OF MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND LOW LEVEL WAA. EXPECT ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AND GUSTS NEAR SEVERE LEVELS AS THIS CONVECTION MOVES BASICALLY SWD...WHEN COMBINING SEWD TRANSLATIONAL AND SWWD PROPAGATIONAL MCS MOTION VECTOR COMPONENTS. HOWEVER...ORGANIZATION WILL BE LIMITED...WITH DEEP-LAYER SHEAR AND ELEVATED MUCAPE DIMINISHING WITH SWD EXTENT THROUGH NRN/CENTRAL MS. ..EDWARDS.. 05/26/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MRX...FFC...OHX...HUN...MEG... 34838994 35498979 35768954 35678902 35098764 35608498 34728581 34288953  From mcd at goshenarc.org Fri May 26 10:33:23 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Fri, 26 May 2006 06:33:23 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 261031 SWOMCD SPC MCD 261031 KSZ000-NEZ000-COZ000-261300- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0985 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0531 AM CDT FRI MAY 26 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS SWRN/S-CENTRAL NEB...CENTRAL/N-CENTRAL/NWRN KS. CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 261031Z - 261300Z OCCASIONAL HAIL IS POSSIBLE THROUGH AT LEAST 13Z FROM ACTIVITY STRENGTHENING IN SWATH FROM SWRN NEB SEWD ACROSS PORTIONS NWRN/N-CENTRAL KS...AS THIS ACTIVITY SHIFTS EWD ON BOTH SIDES OF KS/NEB BORDER. MRGLLY SVR HAIL IS POSSIBLE...BUT ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN TOO DISORGANIZED TO WARRANT WW. THERMODYNAMICALLY...NARROW CORRIDOR OF FAVORABLE AIR MASS IS EVIDENT ABOVE SFC IN RUC SOUNDINGS...IN ASSOCIATION WITH 30-40 KT SELY LLJ SHOWN BY VWP/PROFILERS AND RELATED MOISTURE INCREASE NOTED IN ANIMATIONS OF GPS PW DATA. ELEVATED MUCAPES 500-1000 J/KG ARE ROOTED INVOF 700 MB LEVEL...IN NW-SE BAND ALIGNED ROUGHLY FROM LBF-SLN. THIS CORRIDOR REPRESENTS LOW-MIDLEVEL WARM FRONTAL ZONE AND MAY DRIFT EWD WITH TIME...BUT NOT AS FAST AS CONVECTIVE MOTIONS. WITH WEAKENING OF BOTH LLJ AND AVAILABLE BUOYANCY...CONVECTION IS FCST TO DIMINISH WITHIN 2-3 HOURS AFTER SUNRISE. ..EDWARDS.. 05/26/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...TOP...ICT...GID...LBF...DDC...GLD...BOU... 38109795 39570011 40420144 40970206 41350205 41570046 39009646 38419634 38059769  From mcd at goshenarc.org Fri May 26 15:47:46 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Fri, 26 May 2006 11:47:46 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 261542 SWOMCD SPC MCD 261542 VAZ000-PAZ000-MDZ000-WVZ000-NCZ000-TNZ000-261745- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0986 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1042 AM CDT FRI MAY 26 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...THE CNTRL APPALACHIANS CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 261542Z - 261745Z A WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED IN THE NEAR TERM...BUT CONVECTIVE TRENDS/ POTENTIAL IS BEING MONITORED. WEAKENING UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO SLOWLY SHIFT EASTWARD INTO/ THROUGH THE LOWER GREAT LAKES/OHIO VALLEY REGION...AND LEADING EDGE OF STRONGER MID-LEVEL FORCING FOR UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION APPEARS TO BE SPREADING INTO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS. BREAKS IN CLOUD COVER ...EVIDENT FROM PARTS OF SOUTH CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA THROUGH THE MOUNTAINS OF NORTH CAROLINA...LIKELY WILL ALLOW SUFFICIENT HEATING FOR DESTABILIZATION AND INCREASING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT THROUGH THE 17-19Z TIME FRAME. AS STORMS DEVELOP ALONG THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN...VERTICAL SHEAR BENEATH 30-40 KT CYCLONIC MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR AT LEAST BRIEF UPDRAFT ROTATION IN STRONGER CELLS. CAPE IS GENERALLY WEAK...BUT COULD LOCALLY EXCEED 1000 J/KG...AND MAY SUPPORT A STORMS WITH HAIL APPROACHING OR BRIEFLY EXCEEDING SEVERE LIMITS. ..KERR.. 05/26/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...CTP...LWX...RNK...PBZ...RLX...GSP...MRX... 38118033 38737970 40197840 39297777 38417833 37007978 35998139 35578243 35838290 36288312 36978195  From mcd at goshenarc.org Fri May 26 16:22:18 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Fri, 26 May 2006 12:22:18 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 261610 SWOMCD SPC MCD 261610 MAZ000-CTZ000-NYZ000-NHZ000-VTZ000-261815- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0987 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1110 AM CDT FRI MAY 26 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...HUDSON VALLEY...SRN NEW ENGLAND CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 261610Z - 261815Z A WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED DUE TO LIMITED COVERAGE/INTENSITY OF STRONGER STORMS...BUT CONVECTIVE TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED. BAND OF THUNDERSTORMS LIFTING ACROSS SOUTHEAST NEW YORK/NORTHERN NEW JERSEY TOWARD THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY APPEARS TO BE ASSOCIATED WITH LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION REGIME...AHEAD OF WEAKENING UPPER TROUGH SHIFTING INTO/THROUGH THE LOWER GREAT LAKES/OHIO VALLEY. THIS FORCING WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD ACROSS THE HUDSON VALLEY INTO PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN/WESTERN NEW ENGLAND THROUGH THE 18-19Z. CONVECTION LIKELY WILL BECOME ROOTED IN HEATING BOUNDARY LAYER AIR MASS ACROSS THIS REGION...BUT DEW POINTS ARE ONLY IN THE 55-60F RANGE. MID-LEVELS ARE COOL...BUT NOT PARTICULARLY COLD...AND THIS IS NOT SUPPORTING STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES...WHICH SEEM LIKELY TO LIMIT CAPE TO AROUND 500 J/KG. VERTICAL SHEAR APPEARS FAIRLY MODERATE AS WELL...AND ANY SEVERE THREAT SEEMS LIKELY TO BE LIMITED TO ISOLATED HAIL...WHICH COULD APPROACH OR BRIEFLY EXCEED SEVERE LIMITS. ..KERR.. 05/26/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...BOX...BTV...OKX...ALY... 43017427 44317367 43907318 43477287 42527202 41727221 41367234 40797314 40907352 40877388 41497395  From mcd at goshenarc.org Fri May 26 18:14:13 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Fri, 26 May 2006 14:14:13 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 261757 SWOMCD SPC MCD 261757 DEZ000-MDZ000-VAZ000-NCZ000-SCZ000-GAZ000-261930- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0988 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1257 PM CDT FRI MAY 26 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...SRN DELMARVA...SE VA...CNTRL AND ERN NC/SC CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 261757Z - 261930Z SEVERE THREAT IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE RAPIDLY NEXT FEW HOURS. STRONGER MID-LEVEL FORCING FOR UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION CONTINUES TO SHIFT INTO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS REGION...AND CONVECTIVE INITIATION ALONG/TO THE LEE OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN SEEMS A BIT SLOWER THAN EARLIER ANTICIPATED. HOWEVER...DOWNSTREAM ENVIRONMENT CONTINUES TO DESTABILIZE WITH STRONG HEATING...FROM THE PIEDMONT OF THE CAROLINAS THROUGH THE MID/SOUTHERN ATLANTIC COASTAL PLAINS. MIXED LAYER CAPE NEAR THERMAL RIDGE AXIS...WHERE SURFACE TEMPERATURES HAVE EXCEEDED 90F...NOW RANGES FROM 2000-3000 J/KG ...AND WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF VIGOROUS UPDRAFTS ONCE ACTIVITY FINALLY INITIATES. UNCERTAINTY EXISTS AS TO WHETHER THIS WILL OCCUR OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN...OR IN RESPONSE TO WEAKER MID/UPPER FORCING ALREADY BEGINNING TO SPREAD INTO THE CENTRAL CAROLINAS/SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA AND SOUTHERN DELMARVA PENINSULA. AT ANY RATE...A RAPID INCREASE IN THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY APPEARS POSSIBLE BY THE 19-21Z TIME FRAME. VERTICAL SHEAR ACROSS MUCH OF THIS REGION IS RATHER MODERATE IN STRENGTH...BUT 30 TO 40 KT MEAN FLOW IN DEEP MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER WITH LARGE TEMPERATURE/DEW POINT SPREADS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR STRONG DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. LARGE HAIL LIKELY WILL ALSO ACCOMPANY STRONGER CELLS AS ACTIVITY DEVELOPS EASTWARD THROUGH THE MID/LATE AFTERNOON HOURS...AFFECTING NORFOLK VA/RALEIGH AND FAYETTEVILLE NC/COLUMBIA SC AND POINTS EASTWARD. ..KERR.. 05/26/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...PHI...AKQ...MHX...LWX...RAH...ILM...RNK...CHS...CAE...GSP... 34648210 35338160 36028026 37727801 38527708 38637548 38057500 36367541 35107597 34097777 32778031 33498200  From mcd at goshenarc.org Fri May 26 19:57:25 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Fri, 26 May 2006 15:57:25 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 261956 SWOMCD SPC MCD 261955 ARZ000-MOZ000-OKZ000-262130- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0989 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0255 PM CDT FRI MAY 26 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...SRN MO...NRN AR...PARTS OF ERN OK CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 261955Z - 262130Z TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED FOR AN INCREASING THREAT OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...AND THE POSSIBILITY OF A WW. A CONVECTIVELY INDUCED OR ENHANCED MID-LEVEL CYCLONIC VORTICITY CENTER IS READILY EVIDENT IN SATELLITE IMAGERY OVER THE OZARK PLATEAU...SOUTH OF THE SPRINGFIELD MO AREA. THIS FEATURE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN WEAK FLOW REGIME EAST OF UPPER RIDGE AXIS...AND GENERALLY PROGRESSING SLOWLY SOUTHEAST. EVENTUALLY...BUT PROBABLY NOT UNTIL LATER THIS EVENING...FORCING NEAR CENTER OF CIRCULATION MAY BECOME FOCUS FOR ANOTHER CLUSTER OF STORMS. HOWEVER...IN THE SHORTER TERM...INITIATION OF SCATTERED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED TO ITS EAST AND SOUTH...WHERE ENVIRONMENT ALONG LOW-LEVEL THERMAL RIDGE EXTENDING OUT OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS HAS BECOME VERY UNSTABLE. LOW/MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE QUITE STEEP...AND WITH SURFACE TEMPERATURES AROUND 90F...DEW POINTS NEAR 70F ARE CONTRIBUTING TO MIXED LAYER CAPE ON THE ORDER OF 4000 J/KG. DESPITE WEAK SHEAR....EXTREME CONDITIONAL AND CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY SUPPORTS POTENTIAL FOR BOTH INTENSE UPDRAFTS AND DOWNDRAFTS IN STORMS...WHICH APPEAR POSSIBLE AS EARLY AS 21-22Z AS REMAINING INHIBITION IS OVERCOME. THIS WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY RISK OF LARGE HAIL AND STRONG DAMAGING WIND GUSTS ..KERR.. 05/26/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...PAH...MEG...LZK...SGF...TSA...OUN... 37429276 37239167 36699026 35999004 35269034 34769092 34499242 34519367 34579467 35359635 36269674 36069468 37039374  From mcd at goshenarc.org Fri May 26 20:30:59 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Fri, 26 May 2006 16:30:59 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 262026 SWOMCD SPC MCD 262026 NEZ000-SDZ000-COZ000-MTZ000-WYZ000-262200- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0990 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0326 PM CDT FRI MAY 26 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN WY/NE CO/SW SD/WRN NEB CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 262026Z - 262200Z ...CONVECTIVE TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED FOR POSSIBLE WATCH LATER THIS AFTN... AIRMASS ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS HAS BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH MLCAPE VALUES AROUND 2000-2500 J/KG. STORMS THAT HAVE FORMED ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS WILL MOVE E/NE INTO THE AREA OF GREATER INSTABILITY OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. IMPULSE NOTED IN WV IMAGERY ACROSS NRN NM/SRN CO WILL MOVE TOWARD THE AREA AND THIS WILL INCREASE STORM COVERAGE/INTENSITY. LAPSE RATES ARE VERY STEEP...AND THE COMBINATION OF FAVORABLE UPSLOPE FLOW AND INCREASING LARGE SCALE ASCENT WILL LIKELY RESULT IN STRONG TO SEVERE TSTMS LATER THIS AFTN. THE MAIN THREATS WILL BE MICROBURST WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. FAVORABLE DIRECTIONAL SHEAR WILL ALSO CONTRIBUTE TO ROTATING UPDRAFTS...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLD TORNADOES. ..TAYLOR.. 05/26/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LBF...UNR...GLD...BOU...CYS...BYZ...RIW... 39320472 41010580 42820623 44290591 44990481 45120261 44980184 42960184 41740184 40750192 39300289  From mcd at goshenarc.org Fri May 26 21:25:48 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Fri, 26 May 2006 17:25:48 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 262124 SWOMCD SPC MCD 262124 TXZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-COZ000-NMZ000-262300- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0991 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0424 PM CDT FRI MAY 26 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN NM/OK PANHANDLE/SE CO/TX PANHANDLE CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 262124Z - 262300Z ...HIGH BASED STORMS IN WELL MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER WILL LIKELY HAVE STRONG DOWNBURST WINDS... TEMPS HAVE HEATED UP INTO THE 90S IN SE CO/ERN NM TO AROUND 100 ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE TEXAS PANHANDLE. DEEPER CONVECTION IS OCCURRING ACROSS PORTIONS OF SE CO...EAST OF PUEBLO. DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS GENERALLY AROUND 30 KT IN THIS AREA...AND IS WEAKER FARTHER SOUTH. LAPSE RATES REMAIN VERY STEEP WITHIN A MODERATELY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT. GREATEST THREAT SEEMS TO BE WITH STRONG CONVECTIVE DOWNDRAFTS...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS WHERE TEMP/DEWPOINT DEPRESSION VALUES EXCEED 50-60 DEGREES. THE BETTER FORCING SHOULD BE FOCUSED FARTHER NORTH...ASSOCIATED WITH THE NRN NM IMPULSE. HOWEVER...STRONG HEATING HAS ERODED CONVECTIVE INHIBITION ACROSS MUCH OF THE SRN HIGH PLAINS...SO STORMS WILL DEVELOP SWD DOWN THE DRYLINE/LEE TROUGH INTO THE DAVIS MOUNTAINS. ..TAYLOR.. 05/26/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...DDC...GLD...LUB...AMA...MAF...PUB...BOU...ABQ... 34190140 32930271 32740364 33390445 36920456 38330473 38710367 38540177 38150061 36570044  From mcd at goshenarc.org Fri May 26 23:23:26 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Fri, 26 May 2006 19:23:26 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 262321 SWOMCD SPC MCD 262321 NCZ000-VAZ000-SCZ000-GAZ000-TNZ000-ALZ000-270045- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0992 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0621 PM CDT FRI MAY 26 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...SRN VA...NC...SC...NRN GA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 402...403...404... VALID 262321Z - 270045Z LATEST ANALYSIS DEPICTS COLD FRONT EAST OF THE APPALACHIANS WHILE THERMAL/LEE-TROUGH AXIS REMAINS SITUATED ACROSS ERN NC SWWD TO ERN SC. OUTFLOW FROM COASTAL CONVECTION HAS REINFORCED INLAND SEA BREEZE PENETRATION ACROSS NERN NC BUT SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY REMAINS CLOSER TO THE COAST ACROSS SRN SC/SERN GA. DESPITE DEEP CONVECTION ACROSS ERN NC/NERN SC OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS...DIAGNOSTIC DATA CONTINUES TO INDICATE ABUNDANT INSTABILITY REMAINS EAST OF THE LEE TROUGH...FROM THE SC MIDLANDS NEWD TO SERN VA. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT ADDITIONAL SEVERE STORMS COULD FORM ACROSS THESE AREAS AS COLD FRONT SPREADS EAST LATER TONIGHT...AND MODEST SHEAR PERSISTS OVER THE REGION. FARTHER SOUTHWEST...FROM SRN SC INTO GA...LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT WEAKER LARGE SCALE FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER TROUGH/FRONT MAY LIMIT TSTM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THESE AREAS. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF ONE SEVERE STORM OVER NRN POLK COUNTY GA...LACK OF GREATER STORM COVERAGE...AND DIMINISHING POTENTIAL WITH EWD/SEWD EXTENT...WOULD SUGGEST SWRN PORTIONS OF WW 402 MAY BE CLEARED WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR. ..CARBIN.. 05/26/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...RAH...ILM...RNK...CHS...CAE...GSP...MRX...FFC...BMX... 31588133 33378271 33678536 35018545 34788396 37797964 37397910 37337861 37287592 35747510  From mcd at goshenarc.org Sat May 27 00:34:54 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Fri, 26 May 2006 20:34:54 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 270033 SWOMCD SPC MCD 270033 TNZ000-GAZ000-ALZ000-KYZ000-MSZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-270200- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0993 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0733 PM CDT FRI MAY 26 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...SERN MO...NERN AR....WRN KY...WRN AND MIDDLE TN...NRN AL CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 406...409... VALID 270033Z - 270200Z NUMEROUS INTENSE TSTMS PERSIST FROM SERN MO/NERN AR EWD TO MIDDLE TN THIS EVENING ALONG QUASI-STATIONARY FRONTAL ZONE IN THE PRESENCE OF EXTREME INSTABILITY. LATEST BNA/LZK RAOBS APPEAR TO CONFIRM SHORT-TERM GUIDANCE THAT SHEAR ACROSS THE REGION REMAINS SOMEWHAT LIMITED. NONETHELESS...MAGNITUDE OF INSTABILITY /MLCAPE IN EXCESS OF 3000 J/KG/ WILL CONTINUE TO CONTRIBUTE TO VIGOROUS MULTICELLULAR UPDRAFTS PRODUCING SOME HAIL AS WELL AS SEVERE WIND GUSTS. SOMEWHAT STRONGER DEEP LAYER SHEAR APPROACHING 30KT ACROSS NRN/CNTRL PORTION OF WW 409 COULD PROMOTE SUPERCELL STORM STRUCTURE WITH CELLS OVER MIDDLE TN. EXPECT SEVERE STORM THREAT TO GRADUALLY DEVELOP INTO SRN PORTIONS OF WATCHES 406 AND 409 OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS AS LIFT ALONG THE DEVELOPING COLD POOL...COMBINED WITH FAVORABLE BACKGROUND ASCENT FROM MCV MOVING EAST FROM AR...MAINTAIN A SUPPORTIVE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEEP MOIST CONVECTION. ..CARBIN.. 05/27/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MRX...FFC...OHX...BMX...HUN...PAH...MEG...LSX...LZK...SGF... 34338559 35069036 35539285 37039283 37139133 36628806 36018548  From mcd at goshenarc.org Sat May 27 00:51:33 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Fri, 26 May 2006 20:51:33 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 270049 SWOMCD SPC MCD 270049 SDZ000-NDZ000-MTZ000-270215- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0994 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0749 PM CDT FRI MAY 26 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...WRN ND/WRN SD CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 407... VALID 270049Z - 270215Z ...INCREASING THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL ACROSS PORTIONS OF ND... COMPLEX OF TSTMS ACROSS WRN SD THIS AFTN HAS PRODUCED AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY EVIDENT ON SATELLITE IMAGERY. THIS BOUNDARY EXTENDS ROUGHLY FROM HEI/GCC/DGW AND WILL LIKELY BE A FOCUS FOR NEW STORM DEVELOPMENT. AIRMASS ACROSS ND REMAINS MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS SUGGESTING MLCAPE VALUES AROUND 1500 J/KG. SOUNDING FROM BISMARCK AT 00Z SHOWS A FAVORABLE WIND PROFILE FOR SUPERCELLS WITH AROUND 40 KT OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND STRONGLY CURVED HODOGRAPH IN THE LOWEST 3KM. ALTHOUGH SEVERE WIND GUSTS HAVE BEEN THE PROMINENT SEVERE MODE...IT APPEARS THAT THERE MAY BE AN INCREASING THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL BASED ON STRONG UPDRAFT CORES OBSERVED FROM LOCAL RADARS AND STEEP LAPSE RATES OBSERVED ON SOUNDING DATA. ..TAYLOR.. 05/27/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...ABR...BIS...UNR...GGW... 43040049 43000383 47520408 48940407 48930036  From mcd at goshenarc.org Sat May 27 01:57:25 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Fri, 26 May 2006 21:57:25 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 270155 SWOMCD SPC MCD 270155 MOZ000-IAZ000-NEZ000-KSZ000-COZ000-270330- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0995 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0855 PM CDT FRI MAY 26 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...WESTERN/SOUTH CENTRAL NEB AND FAR NORTHEAST CO/NORTHERN KS INTO EASTERN NEB/NORTHEAST KS CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 405...408... VALID 270155Z - 270330Z TORNADO WATCH 408 CONTINUES UNTIL 04Z. VALID PORTION OF TORNADO WATCH 405 CONTINUES UNTIL 03Z. AN ADDITIONAL WATCH COULD BE NEEDED ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST NEB/NORTHEAST KS IN THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO...WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR. PRIMARY THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS CONTINUES ACROSS MUCH OF WATCHES 408/405...NAMELY WESTERN NEB/SOUTH CENTRAL NEB INTO NORTH CENTRAL KS. 00Z RAOBS/OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS SUGGESTS AMBIENT ATMOSPHERE REMAINS MODERATELY UNSTABLE IN PRESENCE OF MODEST VERTICAL SHEAR. ACROSS WW 408...WELL ORGANIZED SEVERE STORM CLUSTERS/SMALL SCALE BOWS ARE PROGRESSING EASTWARD ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL KS AS THIS TIME. DEVELOPING S/SW LOW LEVEL JET AND DOWNSTREAM PROPAGATION INTO UNSTABLE AIRMASS /REF 00Z TOPEKA RAOB/ APPEARS LIKELY TO SUPPORT AT LEAST AN ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT DEVELOPING INTO SOUTHEAST NEB/NORTHEAST KS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. EXTENT/COVERAGE OF SEVERE THREAT AND NECESSITY FOR A WATCH IS UNCERTAIN...HOWEVER WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR. ..GUYER.. 05/27/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...EAX...OAX...TOP...ICT...GID...LBF...DDC...GLD...BOU...CYS... 42610342 42000180 41510065 41469864 41539634 41259580 41059556 39859550 39159607 39119760 39129920 38790002 38800095 40040189 40570306  From mcd at goshenarc.org Sat May 27 03:23:03 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Fri, 26 May 2006 23:23:03 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 270321 SWOMCD SPC MCD 270321 GAZ000-TNZ000-ALZ000-MSZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-270345- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0996 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1021 PM CDT FRI MAY 26 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...EXTREME NERN AR...WRN/MIDDLE TN...NRN AL CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 406...409... VALID 270321Z - 270345Z TSTMS WERE DIMINISHING IN INTENSITY ALONG RESIDUAL STATIONARY BOUNDARY ACROSS TN LATE THIS EVENING. WITH RIDGING ALOFT BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST ACROSS THE REGION...LACK OF STRONGER LARGE SCALE SUPPORT FOR ASCENT SHOULD INHIBIT ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT. AIR MASS ALONG THE FRONT REMAINS VERY MOIST...UNSTABLE...AND WEAKLY CAPPED. THUS...ONE OR TWO STRONG UPDRAFTS COULD STILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HAIL AND/OR WIND GUSTS NEAR SEVERE LEVELS. OVERALL POTENTIAL DOES NOT APPEAR TO WARRANT ADDITIONAL WATCH ISSUANCE BEYOND 04Z. ..CARBIN.. 05/27/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MRX...FFC...OHX...BMX...HUN...MEG... 34338567 34598792 35028854 35059023 36249004 36228894 35468657 34978550  From mcd at goshenarc.org Sat May 27 03:39:47 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Fri, 26 May 2006 23:39:47 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 270336 SWOMCD SPC MCD 270335 NDZ000-SDZ000-270530- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0997 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1035 PM CDT FRI MAY 26 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...WESTERN/CENTRAL ND INTO WEST CENTRAL SD CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 407... VALID 270335Z - 270530Z VALID PORTION OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 407 CONTINUES UNTIL 05Z...NAMELY ACROSS WESTERN/CENTRAL ND. GIVEN THE 05Z SCHEDULED EXPIRATION AND POSSIBILITY FOR A SEVERE THREAT CONTINUING OVERNIGHT...AN ADDITIONAL WATCH ISSUANCE/REPLACEMENT COULD BE NEEDED ACROSS PORTIONS OF ND. ALTHOUGH THERE HAS BEEN A RELATIVE LULL IN CONVECTIVE INTENSITY OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS...SHORT TERM 21Z SREF/00Z NAM GUIDANCE AND DIAGNOSTIC MASS FIELDS SUGGEST SEVERE POTENTIAL SHOULD CONTINUE AND/OR EVEN INCREASE INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS ACROSS ND. THIS APPEARS TO BE MOST LIKELY FOCUSED ACROSS NORTHERN ND OVERNIGHT IN AREAS NORTH OF I-94...IN PRESENCE OF DEVELOPING 40-50 KT SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL JET/MOISTURE TRANSPORT REGIME ALONG AND AHEAD OF LOW-MID LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE. SIMILAR TO 00Z BISMARK RAOB -- 2900 J/KG MUCAPE -- RUC SOUNDINGS FEATURE MODERATE INSTABILITY AND STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ABOVE A NOCTURNALLY STABILIZED BOUNDARY LAYER. COUPLED WITH THE DEGREE OF ELEVATED INSTABILITY...ADEQUATE CLOUD BEARING SHEAR WOULD BE SUPPORT POTENTIAL FOR UPDRAFT ROTATION AND ELEVATED SUPERCELLS. PRIMARY HAZARD WILL LIKELY BE LARGE HAIL REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. ..GUYER.. 05/27/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...FGF...ABR...BIS...UNR... 48300317 48890225 48719957 47059825 46049932 44799953 43419973 43180123 44300185 45930189 46260311  From mcd at goshenarc.org Sat May 27 04:57:19 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Sat, 27 May 2006 00:57:19 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 270456 SWOMCD SPC MCD 270455 MOZ000-IAZ000-KSZ000-NEZ000-270630- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0998 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1155 PM CDT FRI MAY 26 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN NEB...SWRN IA...NERN KS...NWRN MO CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 410... VALID 270455Z - 270630Z ARC OF DEEP CONVECTION CONTINUES SPREADING EAST ACROSS NERN KS/EXTREME SERN NEB AHEAD OF WELL DEVELOPED COLD POOL AND MESOLOW. MESOSCALE ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THESE FEATURES...AND MASS INFLOW ON THE NOSE OF INTENSIFYING LOW LEVEL JET...SHOULD MAINTAIN THE CHANCE FOR STORMS ACROSS THE MO RIVER VALLEY THROUGH LATE TONIGHT AND ADDITIONAL ELEVATED STORMS APPEAR TO BE DEVELOPING ACROSS PARTS OF ERN NEB AND WRN IA. INTENSE STORMS WERE BEGINNING TO BACKBUILD INTO THE INSTABILITY AXIS ACROSS ERN KS /SWRN EDGE OF WW 410/ AND EXPECT THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL...LOCALLY STRONG WIND GUSTS...AND HEAVY RAIN TO ACCOMPANY THIS CONVECTION. ELEVATED ACTIVITY ACROSS ERN NEB AND WRN IA ALSO LIKELY TO INCREASE PER MOST LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE. SEVERE HAIL AND HEAVY RAIN ALSO APPEARS POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS GIVEN PROXIMITY TO STRONG INSTABILITY AND MODEST EFFECTIVE SHEAR. AN ADDITIONAL WATCH OVER PARTS OF THE MO RIVER VALLEY MAY BE NEEDED IN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO IF STORMS CONTINUE TO INCREASE OUTSIDE OF WW 410. ..CARBIN.. 05/27/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...DMX...EAX...OAX...TOP...GID... 39189577 39039781 40349687 42009791 42219780 41409597 40759501 40209432 39139486  From mcd at goshenarc.org Sat May 27 07:54:15 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Sat, 27 May 2006 03:54:15 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 270752 SWOMCD SPC MCD 270752 NDZ000-MTZ000-270945- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0999 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0252 AM CDT SAT MAY 27 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...ND EXCEPT FOR EXTREME SRN AND EXTREME ERN PORTIONS. CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 411... VALID 270752Z - 270945Z WIDELY SCATTERED NON-SVR TSTMS ARE EVIDENT OVER WW ATTM...WITH SOME POTENTIAL REMAINING FOR ACTIVITY TO INTENSIFY TO SVR LIMITS...ESPECIALLY ALONG/AHEAD OF SFC COLD FRONT. HOWEVER...GIVEN OVERALL WEAKENING TRENDS DURING PAST COUPLE HOURS AND DIMINISHING PROBABILITIES FOR WELL-ORGANIZED SVR EVENT...SOME OR ALL OF WW MAY BE CANCELED BEFORE SCHEDULED 10Z EXPIRATION. SFC MESOANALYSIS SHOWS FRONTAL-WAVE LOW OVER CENTRAL ND BETWEEN BIS AND SERN PORTIONS LAKE SAKAKAWEA. COLD FRONT EXTENDS SWWD THROUGH SECONDARY LOW OVER NWRN SD AND INTO E-CENTRAL/S-CENTRAL WY. QUASISTATIONARY FRONTAL ZONE EXTENDS NEWD FROM ND LOW ACROSS NERN ND AND EXTREME SERN MB. FRONTAL ZONE SHOULD CONTINUE MOVING SLOWLY SEWD ACROSS SWRN/S-CENTRAL ND BUT REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY ELSEWHERE FOR ANOTHER 3-4 HOURS. MODIFIED RAOBS AND RUC SOUNDINGS INDICATE MUCAPES DIMINISHING GREATLY FROM SFC FRONT WWD...FROM AROUND 2000 J/KG ACROSS ERN ND TO LESS THAN 500 J/KG OVER WRN PORTIONS ORIGINAL WW. BUOYANCY DIMINISHES TO NEAR ZERO W OF WEAK BAND OF ELEVATED CONVECTION NOW EVIDENT FROM NEAR GDV NEWD ACROSS RENVILLE COUNTY. LAPSE RATES REMAIN FAVORABLY STEEP ALONG/AHEAD OF FRONT...WITH ELEVATED TSTMS REMAINING POSSIBLE AMIDST 40-50 KT LLJ AS OBSERVED IN BIS VWP. LIFT APPEARS WEAK AWAY FROM FRONTAL ZONE AND SFC LOW...HOWEVER....INDICATING LIMITED COVERAGE FOR ANY ACTIVITY THAT DOES DEVELOP. ..EDWARDS.. 05/27/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...FGF...BIS...BYZ...GGW... 47510412 48170281 48750183 49050115 49019789 48569789 48549832 48159829 47869855 46599845 46640058 46400059 46250102 46390136 46610135 46630375 46520405  From mcd at goshenarc.org Sat May 27 08:32:17 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Sat, 27 May 2006 04:32:17 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 270830 SWOMCD SPC MCD 270830 IAZ000-MOZ000-271100- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1000 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0330 AM CDT SAT MAY 27 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS CENTRAL/SRN IA...NRN MO. CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 270830Z - 271100Z LINEAR MCS WILL CONTINUE MOVING ENEWD 35-40 KT ACROSS CENTRAL/SRN IA AND ADJACENT PORTIONS NRN MO. OCCASIONAL HAIL AND STRONG GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE WITH ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE. ATTM...SVR POTENTIAL APPEARS TOO MRGL FOR WW BUT WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED. VWP DATA IN PRE-STORM ENVIRONMENT INDICATES 30-40 KT SLY LLJ...ALIGNED NEARLY PARALLEL TO ORIENTATION OF CONVECTIVE FORCING. MOTION OF LINE...THEREFORE...SHOULD BE NEARLY EQUIVALENT TO STORM-RELATIVE INFLOW VECTOR...WHICH APPEARS FAVORABLE ATTM. ONCE ACTIVITY MOVES E OF ABOUT I-35...UPSTREAM TRAJECTORIES GRADUALLY BECOME LESS MOIST...BASED ON 00Z 850 MB ANALYSES...RUC SOUNDINGS AND GPS PW DATA. SRN PORTION OF LINE ASTRIDE MO BORDER MAY SURVIVE LONGER SINCE AIR MASS ABOVE SFC APPEARS MORE BUOYANT OVER NRN MO. LINEAR ORGANIZATION SHOULD CONTINUE...WHICH NORMALLY WOULD FAVOR SEVERE WIND OVER HAIL FOR MAIN THREAT. HOWEVER...SHALLOW LAYER OF RELATIVELY STABLE AIR NEAR GROUND LEVEL WILL MITIGATE DOWNDRAFT SPEEDS IN MOST AREAS...LEAVING DAMAGING WIND THREAT ISOLATED/SPORADIC. SFC STATIONS OVER WHICH THIS LINE HAS PASSED SINCE MO RIVER BEAR THIS OUT...WITH MEASURED SUB-SVR GUSTS IN 22-41 KT RANGE. A FEW GUSTS MAY REACH SFC WITH ENOUGH STRENGTH TO DO MINOR DMG. ISOLATED HAIL ALSO REMAINS POSSIBLE FROM MOST VIGOROUS CORES -- MAINLY AN INCH OR LESS IN DIAMETER. ..EDWARDS.. 05/27/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LSX...DVN...DMX...EAX... 42249492 42349385 42309260 41369216 39999237 39829447 41009431  From mcd at goshenarc.org Sat May 27 19:14:23 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Sat, 27 May 2006 15:14:23 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 271912 SWOMCD SPC MCD 271912 WIZ000-ILZ000-IAZ000-MNZ000-272045- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1001 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0212 PM CDT SAT MAY 27 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...SERN MN...WI...NRN IL CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 271912Z - 272045Z ...ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP AHEAD OF UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH... CENTER OF WEAK UPPER VORT APPEARS TO BE LOCATED OVER NERN IA...LIFTING NEWD WITHIN THINNING MID-HIGH LEVEL CONVECTIVE DEBRIS FROM EARLY MORNING MCS. ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF THIS CLOUD CANOPY...CONVECTION HAS RECENTLY DEVELOPED WHERE BOUNDARY LAYER WARMING IS MAXIMIZED...AND WARM ADVECTION APPEARS TO BE FOCUSED. TWO AREAS ARE OF CONCERN FOR ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS: 1) ARCED SHAPED LINE OF DEVELOPMENT FROM DAKOTA COUNTY MN...TO PORTAGE COUNTY WI. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD CONTINUE TO INCREASE AS IT LIFTS NWD THIS AFTERNOON. 2) ANOTHER CONCENTRATED ZONE OF DEEP CONVECTION SHOULD DEVELOP SHORTLY FROM NCNTRL IL...SWWD TO NEAR THE IA/IL/MO BORDER. HIGH INSTABILITY IS SPREADING/DEVELOPING NEWD AS EVIDENT BY EXPANDING CU FIELD. BOTH OF THESE AREAS WILL BE INFLUENCED GREATLY BY LARGE SCALE ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH EJECTING SHORTWAVE TROUGH. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS ARE THE PRIMARY SEVERE THREATS. ..DARROW.. 05/27/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...GRB...LOT...ILX...MKX...DVN...DLH...ARX...MPX... 40859210 42889105 43949325 45189368 46399105 44528788 41598795 40409132  From mcd at goshenarc.org Sat May 27 20:11:07 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Sat, 27 May 2006 16:11:07 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 272009 SWOMCD SPC MCD 272009 SCZ000-GAZ000-NCZ000-TNZ000-ALZ000-272145- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1002 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0309 PM CDT SAT MAY 27 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...NRN AND CNTRL GA/NRN AL/SC CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 272009Z - 272145Z ...PULSE SVR TSTMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST THIS AFTN WITH MAIN THREATS OF ISOLD DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL... VERY UNSTABLE AIRMASS HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTHEAST WITH MLCAPE VALUES EXCEEDING 2000 J/KG ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SC COASTAL PLAIN INTO NRN GA. ALTHOUGH DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS NOT OVERLY STRONG...SFC TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED INTO THE LOW/MID 90S WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S. MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE STEEP...AND THE BOUNDARY LAYER IS WELL MIXED...SO TSTM DOWNDRAFTS WILL BE QUITE STRONG. TSTM WIND DAMAGE HAS ALREADY BEEN REPORTED ACROSS SC...ALONG WITH A FEW REPORTS OF HAIL. THESE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR A FEW HOURS...AND THE AREA HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO SLIGHT RISK IN LATEST CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK. ..TAYLOR.. 05/27/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...ILM...CHS...CAE...GSP...MRX...FFC...OHX...BMX...HUN... 31988098 33308545 34458803 35018791 35248684 35238384 35228229 34438056 33477949 32477955 32167996  From mcd at goshenarc.org Sat May 27 21:29:13 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Sat, 27 May 2006 17:29:13 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 272126 SWOMCD SPC MCD 272126 NDZ000-SDZ000-272330- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1003 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0426 PM CDT SAT MAY 27 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...ND...NRN SD CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 272126Z - 272330Z STORM INITIATION APPEARS LIKELY LATE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS SRN ND AND NRN SD. AS STORMS DEVELOP...SUPERCELLS WILL BE LIKELY WITH TORNADOES...LARGE HAIL AND WIND DAMAGE POSSIBLE. A TORNADO WATCH WILL BE LIKELY NEEDED BY 22Z ACROSS THE REGION. LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A SFC LOW ACROSS SCNTRL ND WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING NEWD ACROSS CNTRL AND NERN ND. SFC DEWPOINTS SOUTHEAST OF THE BOUNDARY ARE IN THE LOWER 60S F WITH MODERATE TO STRONG INSTABILITY PRESENT ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR. OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS SHOWS THE CAPPING INVERSION NEARLY GONE EAST OF BISMARCK AND SWD ALONG THE MO RIVER IN NRN SD. IN ADDITION...VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS AGITATED CUMULUS NEAR BISMARCK ALONG THE BOUNDARY AND ANOTHER CUMULUS FIELD DEVELOPING BETWEEN PIERRE AND MOBRIDGE SD. AS THE CAP WEAKENS FURTHER...RAPID THUNDERSTORM INITIATION SHOULD OCCUR. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ACROSS THE REGION SHOW THE MODERATE TO STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES ALONG AND NORTHWEST OF THE BOUNDARY WHICH SHOULD BE SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELLS. STEEP LAPSE RATES AND THE STRONG INSTABILITY SHOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR LARGE HAIL WITH VERY LARGE HAIL POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER SUPERCELLS. AS SUPERCELLS MATURE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND MOVE ACROSS CNTRL AND NERN ND...TORNADOES WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE. THE TORNADO THREAT WILL BE MOST LIKELY WITH ANY SUPERCELLS THAT TRACK NEWD PARALLEL TO THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. ..BROYLES.. 05/27/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...FGF...ABR...BIS...UNR... 48419813 47209763 45599796 44639912 44540065 45370153 47330157 48590065 48809931  From mcd at goshenarc.org Sat May 27 22:19:02 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Sat, 27 May 2006 18:19:02 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 272215 SWOMCD SPC MCD 272215 KSZ000-OKZ000-TXZ000-280015- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1004 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0515 PM CDT SAT MAY 27 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN TX PANHANDLE...WEST TX...WRN OK...SW KS CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 272215Z - 280015Z ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT LIKELY OVER THE NEXT 2 TO 3 HOURS. WIND DAMAGE AND LARGE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER STORMS. LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A SFC TROUGH EXTENDING SWD ACROSS FAR SE CO...THE OK PANHANDLE INTO THE WRN TX PANHANDLE. EAST OF THE TROUGH...A STRONG MOISTURE GRADIENT EXISTS WITH SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S F IN THE ERN TX PANHANDLE AND ALONG THE ERN EDGE OF THE CAPROCK IN WEST TX. MODERATE TO STRONG INSTABILITY IS PRESENT ALONG THE ERN EDGE OF THE MOISTURE GRADIENT. AS THE CAPPING INVERSION DIMINISHES LATE THIS AFTERNOON...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD INITIATE AND MOVE EWD INTO INCREASING INSTABILITY. PROFILERS CURRENTLY SHOW 0-6 KM SHEAR VALUES OF 25-30 KT SUGGESTING SUPERCELLS WILL BE POSSIBLE. IN ADDITION...LARGE TEMP-DEWPOINT SPREADS SHOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR WIND DAMAGE WITH THE STRONGER STORMS. IN ADDITION...STEEP LAPSE RATES SHOWN ON OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS SHOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR LARGE HAIL AND MAY ENHANCE THE WIND DAMAGE THREAT EARLY THIS EVENING AS THE LOW-LEVEL JET INCREASES ACROSS THE REGION. ..BROYLES.. 05/27/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...OUN...DDC...SJT...LUB...AMA...MAF... 31830073 31660188 32330194 34430129 37980000 37939868 36099931  From mcd at goshenarc.org Sat May 27 22:40:54 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Sat, 27 May 2006 18:40:54 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 272239 SWOMCD SPC MCD 272238 INZ000-ILZ000-WIZ000-272345- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1005 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0538 PM CDT SAT MAY 27 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...SE WI/NE IL/NW IND CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 412... VALID 272238Z - 272345Z ...SEVERE WATCH 412 MAY NEED TO BE LOCALLY EXTENDED INTO PORTIONS OF NERN IL INCLUDING THE CHICAGO METRO AREA... ENVIRONMENT CONTINUES TO LOOK FAVORABLE FOR STRONG/SEVERE TSTMS THIS AFTN. IN PARTICULAR...STRONG SUPERCELL NOW OVER LEE COUNTY HAS PRODUCED STRONG WINDS AND LARGE HAIL AND IS MOVING EAST QUICKLY. RECENT PROFILER DATA FROM BLUE RIVER WI SHOWS OVER 50 KT OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR WITH EXCELLENT LOW LEVEL TURNING. LOCAL RADAR SUGGESTS ROTATIONAL COUPLETS WITH THIS STORM...SO ISOLD TORNADO IS POSSIBLE. INSTABILITY DECREASES SOUTH AND EAST OF LAKE MICHIGAN...SO SEVERE THREAT AT LEAST WITH ONGOING STORMS IS EXPECTED TO DECREASE AS STORMS MOVE INTO LESS FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT. ..TAYLOR.. 05/27/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LOT...ILX...MKX...DVN... 42798790 42548933 41338949 40878876 40788772 40988716 41678703 42448720 42698728  From mcd at goshenarc.org Sat May 27 23:55:35 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Sat, 27 May 2006 19:55:35 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 272354 SWOMCD SPC MCD 272353 SDZ000-NDZ000-MTZ000-WYZ000-280200- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1006 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0653 PM CDT SAT MAY 27 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...NE WY...WRN SD...FAR SE MT...FAR SW ND CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 272353Z - 280200Z A THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL AND WIND DAMAGE WILL BE LIKELY WITH SUPERCELLS THAT INITIATE AND TRACK NEWD ACROSS THE REGION OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. AN ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT MAY ALSO DEVELOP. A WW MAY BE CONSIDERED FOR WRN SD AND NE WY IF STORMS CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE. SFC ANALYSIS CURRENTLY SHOWS A SFC LOW ACROSS CNTRL WY WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING NEWD ACROSS NRN WY AND WRN SD. SFC DEWPOINTS ALONG THE BOUNDARY RANGE FROM THE MID 40S F IN NCNTRL WY TO THE UPPER 50S F ACROSS WRN SD. AS A RESULT...MODERATE INSTABILITY IS IN PLACE WHICH SHOULD SUSTAIN THE DEVELOPING STORMS THIS EVENING. OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS CURRENTLY SHOWS 0-6 KM SHEAR VALUES ALONG THE BOUNDARY IN THE 45 TO 55 KT RANGE WITH VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES SUGGESTING SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL WILL BE LIKELY. ALTHOUGH LCL HEIGHTS ARE RELATIVELY HIGH ACROSS THE REGION...STRONG DIRECTIONAL SHEAR PROFILES ALSO SUGGEST AN ISOLATED TORNADO/WIND DAMAGE THREAT MAY EXIST WITH THE STRONGEST SUPERCELLS EARLY THIS EVENING. ..BROYLES.. 05/27/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...ABR...BIS...UNR...CYS...BYZ... 43570227 43110306 43030379 43210481 43760525 44430544 45370502 46090418 46260281 45850173 45320144 44500154  From mcd at goshenarc.org Sun May 28 01:06:46 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Sat, 27 May 2006 21:06:46 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 280105 SWOMCD SPC MCD 280104 WIZ000-IAZ000-MNZ000-280300- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1007 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0804 PM CDT SAT MAY 27 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...NE IA...SE MN...WRN WI CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 280104Z - 280300Z ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL LIKELY CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS ACROSS FAR NE IA...SE MN AND WRN WI. LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE WOULD BE THE PRIMARY THREATS. LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A MOIST AXIS EXTENDING NWWD ACROSS WRN IA INTO SE SD. STRONG INSTABILITY IS LOCATED ALONG THE MOIST AXIS WITH STORMS INITIATING ALONG THE INSTABILITY GRADIENT IN NERN IA. ADDITIONAL STRONG STORMS ARE ONGOING IN WEAKER INSTABILITY ACROSS CNTRL WI. THE STORMS ARE FORMING BEHIND A SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND MAY INCREASE IN COVERAGE GRADUALLY THIS EVENING. REGIONAL PROFILERS SHOW MODERATE VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES ACROSS THE REGION ASSOCIATED WITH A MID-LEVEL JET MAX OVER SRN WI. THIS COMBINED WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES SUGGEST ISOLATED SUPERCELLS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH A POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL AND WIND DAMAGE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. ..BROYLES.. 05/28/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...GRB...DLH...ARX...MPX...DMX... 43099107 42909241 43499376 44529419 45509338 45789172 45129035 44029008  From mcd at goshenarc.org Sun May 28 04:18:32 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Sun, 28 May 2006 00:18:32 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 280413 SWOMCD SPC MCD 280412 MIZ000-WIZ000-280615- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1008 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1112 PM CDT SAT MAY 27 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN WI...UPPER MI CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 280412Z - 280615Z AN ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT MAY CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS ACROSS ERN WI AND UPPER MI. LARGE HAIL SHOULD BE THE PRIMARY THREAT. LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CURRENTLY SHOWS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER NRN MN AND WI WITH AN MCS ONGOING ALONG THE AXIS OF THE TROUGH. THE STORMS ARE LOCATED ALONG THE NERN EDGE OF A GRADIENT OF MODERATE INSTABILITY NEAR A MID-LEVEL JET MAX ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH. THE JET IS ENHANCING VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES WITH REGIONAL PROFILERS SHOWING 0-6 KM SHEAR VALUES OF 35-40 KT. THIS MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR AN ISOLATED SUPERCELL THREAT ALTHOUGH MULTICELL MODE SHOULD BECOME INCREASINGLY DOMINANT AS INSTABILITY GRADUALLY DECREASES. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT SHOW STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WHICH COMBINED WITH THE SHEAR SHOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR AN ISOLATED LARGE HAIL THREAT FOR A FEW MORE HOURS. ..BROYLES.. 05/28/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MQT...GRB...MKX...ARX... 43588809 44018986 45248996 45958916 46388810 46218708 45738640 44988642 44258696  From mcd at goshenarc.org Sun May 28 04:29:27 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Sun, 28 May 2006 00:29:27 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 280428 SWOMCD SPC MCD 280427 NDZ000-MTZ000-280630- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1009 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1127 PM CDT SAT MAY 27 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...FAR ERN MT...WRN ND CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 280427Z - 280630Z A MARGINAL SEVERE THREAT MAY DEVELOP ACROSS FAR ERN MT AND WRN ND OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. HAIL AND ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE MAY OCCUR WITH A FEW OF THE STORMS. LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A SFC LOW OVER ERN WY WITH A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDING NEWD INTO WCNTRL ND. NORTHWEST OF THE BOUNDARY...SFC DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE 50S F WITH MLCAPE VALUES RANGING FROM 500 TO 1000 J/KG AS SHOWN ON OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS. LATEST MODEL FORECASTS ARE IN AGREEMENT WITH DEVELOPING AN MCS ALONG THE NWRN EDGE OF THE INSTABILITY GRADIENT ACROSS ERN MT AND WRN ND OVERNIGHT. AS STORMS INCREASE IN COVERAGE...THE INSTABILITY COMBINED WITH STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR A FEW MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS. ALTHOUGH THE INSTABILITY IS RELATIVELY WEAK...STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND THE STRONG SHEAR MAY BE FAVORABLE FOR A HAIL THREAT AND/OR STRONG WIND GUSTS WITH THE STRONGER CELLS. ..BROYLES.. 05/28/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...BIS...BYZ...GGW... 46450381 46570544 47270589 48020581 48540548 48930478 48870317 48380244 47190255  From mcd at goshenarc.org Sun May 28 17:32:07 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Sun, 28 May 2006 13:32:07 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 281730 SWOMCD SPC MCD 281730 GAZ000-FLZ000-ALZ000-TNZ000-KYZ000-281900- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1010 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1230 PM CDT SUN MAY 28 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...KY..TN..AL..GA..GA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 281730Z - 281900Z STRONGER STORMS MAY BRIEFLY BE SEVERE THIS AFTERNOON OVER THIS REGION...WITH WET-MICROBURSTS POSSIBLE. NO WATCH IS ANTICIPATED. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS CU FIELD INCREASING FROM SOUTH CENTRAL KY INTO CENTRAL AL...THEN SOUTHEASTWARD INTO NORTH FL. SURFACE DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE 70S ALONG THIS ZONE...WITH MLCAPE VALUES OF 2000-3000 J/KG. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY ALSO SUGGESTS DEEP MOISTURE ALONG THIS AXIS. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEGUN TO DEVELOP OVER KY/TN...AND OTHER STORMS ARE LIKELY TO FORM IN THE NEXT ONE TO TWO HOURS SOUTHWARD INTO NORTH FL. UPPER RIDGE IS CENTERED OVER THIS AREA...WITH STAGNANT MID LEVEL WINDS AND EXTREMELY WEAK VERTICAL SHEAR. THIS WILL LIKELY RESULT IN NEAR STATIONARY STORMS CAPABLE OF VERY HEAVY RAINFALL. PULSE-TYPE STORMS WILL ALSO HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR BRIEF WET-MICROBURSTS AND HAIL. ..HART.. 05/28/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...CHS...JAX...MRX...FFC...TAE...LMK...OHX...BMX...HUN...MOB...PAH... 37228734 37038582 35728538 34168579 33188513 32778380 32588239 31698116 31138125 29918130 30178290 30828411 31668603 32758696 34358731 35978731  From mcd at goshenarc.org Sun May 28 20:09:05 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Sun, 28 May 2006 16:09:05 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 282006 SWOMCD SPC MCD 282006 TXZ000-282200- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1011 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0306 PM CDT SUN MAY 28 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...SW TEXAS CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 282006Z - 282200Z PULSE-TYPE SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS ACROSS SW TEXAS...WITH A COUPLE OF THE STRONGEST STORMS PRODUCING SEVERE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. A WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED. LATEST MESOANALYSIS SHOWS MLCAPE VALUES IN SW TEXAS INCREASING OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS TO AT OR ABOVE 3000 J/KG...AND VISIBLE SATELLITE INDICATES A CU FIELD DEVELOPING IN THIS UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT...WITH STORMS ALREADY OCCURRING TO THE NORTHWEST OF BRO. GIVEN THE WEAK VERTICAL SHEAR ENVIRONMENT...STORMS WILL BE MAINLY PULSING IN NATURE AND RATHER STATIONARY AS LOW TO MID-LEVEL FLOW OVER THE AREA IS AT 5 TO 10 KTS...THERFORE...STORMS WILL MAINLY BE DOMINATED BY THE VERY UNSTABLE THERMODYNAMIC PROFILE. SOME STORMS COULD BRIEFLY BECOME SEVERE DURING THE MATURE PHASE OF THEIR CYCLE WITH HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS THE MAIN THREAT...AND MICROBURSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE AS STORMS QUICKLY COLLAPSE. ADDITIONALLY...LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE. ..LEVIT.. 05/28/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...CRP...EWX...BRO... 30059971 29179890 27869832 27409752 26949749 26199742 26289811 26479884 26899922 27529939 27959983 29760116  From mcd at goshenarc.org Sun May 28 20:14:56 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Sun, 28 May 2006 16:14:56 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 282011 SWOMCD SPC MCD 282011 OKZ000-KSZ000-TXZ000-282215- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1012 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0311 PM CDT SUN MAY 28 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...EASTERN TX/OK PANHANDLES...SWRN KS CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 282011Z - 282215Z ...THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE DRYLINE... BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED RAPIDLY THROUGH THE MID 90S ACROSS THE SRN HIGH PLAINS FROM THE TX PANHANDLE INTO SWRN KS. LATEST DIAGNOSTIC FIELDS SUGGEST LOWEST 3 KM LAPSE RATES ARE NEAR DRY ADIABATIC ALONG THE DRYLINE WHICH STRETCHES ALONG THIS AXIS. LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY SUPPORT THESE TRENDS WITH AN EXPANDING CU FIELD ALONG THIS CONFLUENCE ZONE. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST MODIFIED INVERTED-V PROFILES WILL SUPPORT THUNDERSTORM BASES NEAR 650 MB. NEEDLESS TO SAY...SBCAPE VALUES IN EXCESS OF 2000 J/KG AND SUBSTANTIAL DRY SUB CLOUD LAYER WILL PROVE SUPPORTIVE OF STRONG DOWNBURSTS WITH MULTICELL UPDRAFTS THAT DRIFT NEWD OFF THE DRYLINE LATER THIS EVENING. ..DARROW.. 05/28/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...OUN...DDC...LUB...AMA... 35450136 37229995 37169908 34020051 34260161  From mcd at goshenarc.org Sun May 28 22:43:42 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Sun, 28 May 2006 18:43:42 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 282242 SWOMCD SPC MCD 282242 SDZ000-NEZ000-WYZ000-290045- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1013 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0542 PM CDT SUN MAY 28 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...EXTREME ERN WY....NEB PNHDL....WRN SD CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 282242Z - 290045Z CONSISTENT WITH MODEL GUIDANCE...TSTMS ARE NOW BEGINNING TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY ACROSS SERN WY AS A STRONG SHORT WAVE TROUGH/MID LEVEL SPEED MAX EMERGES FROM THE LARGER SCALE WRN U.S. TROUGH. ACTIVITY SHOULD BECOME WIDESPREAD ENOUGH TO WARRANT A SEVERE TSTM WATCH ACROSS PARTS OF THE REGION THIS EVENING. LATEST DIAGNOSTIC DATA CONTINUES TO INDICATE LIMITED INSTABILITY WITHIN POST-FRONTAL AIR MASS ACROSS ERN WY AND THE NEB PNHDL. HOWEVER...SUFFICIENTLY MOIST POST-FRONTAL UPSLOPE FLOW...COUPLED WITH ADIABATIC COOLING ALOFT DUE TO STRONGLY FORCED ASCENT WAS RESULTING IN MLCAPE APPROACHING 500 J/KG ACROSS PORTIONS OF NRN NEB AND SWRN SD ATTM. CONVECTION NOW DEVELOPING NEAR THE FRONT OVER SERN WY WILL MOVE INTO THIS AXIS OF GREATER INSTABILITY OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THIS ACTIVITY...AND ADDITIONAL STORMS DEVELOPING ON THE BLACK HILLS WILL EXIST WITHIN A VERY STRONGLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW LEVEL ELY/NELY FLOW TOPPED BY INCREASING SWLY FLOW ALOFT. GIVEN MAGNITUDE OF SHEAR AND FORCING FORECAST TO SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH TONIGHT...POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS WITH HAIL AND HIGH WINDS SHOULD INCREASE. ACTIVITY COULD POSSIBLY EVOLVE INTO A SEVERE MCS ACROSS WRN SD THROUGH THE EVENING AND A WATCH APPEARS LIKELY AT THIS TIME. ..CARBIN.. 05/28/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...ABR...LBF...UNR...CYS... 41630241 41400370 41820446 43120442 44940372 45650260 45580135 44680025  From mcd at goshenarc.org Sun May 28 23:45:32 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Sun, 28 May 2006 19:45:32 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 282343 SWOMCD SPC MCD 282342 SDZ000-NEZ000-290115- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1014 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0642 PM CDT SUN MAY 28 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...NERN NEB...SCNTRL/SERN SD CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 282342Z - 290115Z POTENTIAL FOR STORM INITIATION APPEARS TO BE INCREASING OVER PARTS OF NERN NEB INTO SERN SD THIS EVENING. WHILE CAP REMAINS QUITE STRONG ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION...ANY STORM THAT CAN FORM IN THE AREA WILL QUICKLY ATTAIN SEVERE LEVELS WITH LARGE HAIL AND HIGH WINDS POSSIBLE. LATEST ANALYSIS DEPICTS TRIPLE-POINT LOW NEAR ONL WITH DRY LINE EXTENDING SWD AND COLD/STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDING NNEWD INTO SERN SD. AIR MASS NEAR THESE FEATURES WAS STRONGLY UNSTABLE WITH DIAGNOSTIC DATA INDICATING MLCAPE VALUES AROUND 2000 J/KG. CAP REMAINS STRONG ACROSS THE REGION BUT LATEST RUC SOUNDINGS SUGGEST INHIBITION HAS PROBABLY REACHED ITS WEAKEST POINT GIVEN STRONG HEATING AND DEEPLY MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER NEAR THE LOW/DRYLINE AND FRONT. STRONGER LARGE SCALE ASCENT TO AID STORM INITIATION NEAR THE BOUNDARIES APPEARS SUBTLE ATTM WITH MORE CONCENTRATED LIFT FOCUSED FARTHER WEST OF THE REGION. HOWEVER...A SMALL PERCENTAGE OF MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES A LOW PROBABILITY OF CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. IF DEVELOPMENT OCCURS...HAIL AND HIGH WINDS APPEAR LIKELY GIVEN AMOUNT OF CAPE AVAILABLE TO UPDRAFTS BREACHING THE CAP. AT PRESENT...STRONGER DEEP LAYER SHEAR FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS EXISTS NEAR THE FRONT AND LOW AND SHEAR IS FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR THROUGH THE EVENING. WHILE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD DEVELOPMENT CURRENTLY APPEARS LOW...AREA WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED AND A WATCH MAY BE NEEDED IF SEVERE STORM FORMATION BECOMES MORE CERTAIN. ..CARBIN.. 05/28/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...FSD...OAX...ABR...LBF... 44779731 44689796 43459879 42999895 42589911 41929861 42219757 43229706  From mcd at goshenarc.org Mon May 29 00:19:56 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Sun, 28 May 2006 20:19:56 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 290018 SWOMCD SPC MCD 290017 OKZ000-KSZ000-TXZ000-290115- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1015 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0717 PM CDT SUN MAY 28 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...WRN TX...WRN OK...SWRN KS CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 415...416... VALID 290017Z - 290115Z A FEW VIGOROUS STORMS CONTINUE ALONG DRYLINE FROM THE ERN TX PNHDL SWD TO THE RIO GRANDE THIS EVENING. MUCH OF THIS ACTIVITY APPEARS TO BE DRIVEN PRIMARILY BY DIURNAL FORCING/DESTABILIZATION AND COULD STILL POSE A THREAT OF LARGE HAIL AND DOWNBURST WINDS FOR A COUPLE MORE HOURS. POCKETS OF STRONGER DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND STRONGER INSTABILITY EAST OF THE ONGOING STORMS SUGGEST THAT SOME OF THE ACTIVITY MAY PERSIST WHILE GRADUALLY DEVELOPING EWD. PRESENTLY... GREATEST SEVERE POTENTIAL APPEARS TO BE WITH CELL MERGERS OCCURRING OVER REAGAN AND DONLEY COUNTIES IN TX. ..CARBIN.. 05/29/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...OUN...EWX...DDC...SJT...LUB...AMA...MAF... 30329956 30160182 29960238 33610150 36250090 38239989 38249848 36399850 35089863 35019932 34379912 34229947  From mcd at goshenarc.org Mon May 29 02:24:35 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Sun, 28 May 2006 22:24:35 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 290222 SWOMCD SPC MCD 290222 SDZ000-NDZ000-NEZ000-290415- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1016 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0922 PM CDT SUN MAY 28 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...NRN NEB...SD...SRN ND CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 417... VALID 290222Z - 290415Z SEVERE WEATHER DEVELOPING ACROSS PORTIONS OF NRN NEB AND SRN/CNTRL SD OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL CAN BE EXPECTED. AN ADDITIONAL WATCH MAY BE NEEDED IN AN HOUR OR SO FOR AREAS EAST OF WW 417. SEVERE MCS HAS EVOLVED FROM ARC OF DEEP CONVECTION RACING ENEWD ACROSS NWRN NEB AND SWRN SD THIS EVENING. NUMEROUS SEVERE HAIL REPORTS AND HIGH WIND GUSTS HAVE ALREADY BEEN OBSERVED WITH THIS ACTIVITY WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP INTO STRONGER LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY OVER NEXT FEW HOURS. VERY STRONG DYNAMIC FORCING ON THE NOSE OF DIFFLUENT MID LEVEL WIND MAX WILL CONTINUE TO ACT ON MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS TO SUSTAIN STORMS IN A VERY STRONGLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT ACROSS SD/NEB. EXPECT BOWING LINE SEGMENTS...AND POSSIBLY EVEN EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS...TO MOVE TO THE ERN EDGE OF WW 417 OVER THE NEXT TWO HOURS. ..CARBIN.. 05/29/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...FSD...ABR...BIS...LBF...UNR...CYS... 42559959 41960298 44880315 45050272 46389857 45439817  From mcd at goshenarc.org Mon May 29 06:58:49 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Mon, 29 May 2006 02:58:49 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 290657 SWOMCD SPC MCD 290657 MNZ000-SDZ000-NDZ000-290900- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1017 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0157 AM CDT MON MAY 29 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS E-CENTRAL/NERN SD...SERN ND...EXTREME WE-CENTRAL MN. CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 418... VALID 290657Z - 290900Z MCS SHOULD CONTINUE MOVING NEWD APPROXIMATELY 50 KT ACROSS CENTRAL/NRN PORTIONS WW AREA...WITH WIND DAMAGE AND HAIL POSSIBLE. ALTHOUGH ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY MAY DEVELOP ATOP OUTFLOW POOL FROM MCS ACROSS NERN NEB OR SERN SD...PRIND SVR POTENTIAL WILL BE TOO MRGL/CONDITIONAL TO CONTINUE WW BEHIND INITIAL ACTIVITY. TWO PRIMARY CLUSTERS ARE EVIDENT WITHIN MCS AS OF 0630Z. ORIGINAL BAND OF TSTMS RESPONSIBLE FOR 49 KT GUST AT PIR...AND STRONGER WINDS EARLIER IN SWRN SD...APPEARS TO BE SHRINKING WITH OVERALL WEAKENING TREND...BUT STILL REMAINS CAPABLE OF OCCASIONAL HAIL AND GUSTS NEAR SEVERE LEVELS AS IT CROSSES ND COUNTIES LAMOURE...STUTSMAN...MCINTOSH AND LOGAN. THIS ACTIVITY IS MOVING ALONG 850 MB FRONTAL ZONE AND WRN EDGE OF FAVORABLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...AS EVIDENT IN RUC SOUNDINGS AND GPS PW DATA. SRN SEGMENT WILL MOVE ACROSS ABR AREA AND NEWD TOWARD FAR...ALSO WITH SOME WIND/HAIL POTENTIAL. THIS ACTIVITY IS LOCATED CLOSER TO MOST FAVORABLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ABOVE SFC...HOWEVER...IT SHOULD REMAIN BEHIND INTENSE GUST FRONT PRODUCED BY INITIAL SEGMENT FOR AT LEAST 2-3 MORE HOURS. ASSOCIATED RELATIVELY COLD/STABLE OUTFLOW AIR MAY REDUCE INTENSITY/DURATION OF GUSTS WITH SECOND CLUSTER. GENERAL WEAKENING TENDENCIES MAY CONTINUE...WITH POSSIBILITY THAT WW WOULD BE CANCELED BEFORE SCHEDULED 10Z EXPIRATION. ..EDWARDS.. 05/29/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MPX...FGF...FSD...ABR...BIS... 43719806 45059933 46709989 47679936 47899864 47789735 47089637 45229634 43849766  From mcd at goshenarc.org Mon May 29 08:31:10 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Mon, 29 May 2006 04:31:10 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 290828 SWOMCD SPC MCD 290828 MNZ000-SDZ000-NDZ000-291000- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1018 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0328 AM CDT MON MAY 29 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS E-CENTRAL/NERN ND...W-CENTRAL MN...NERN SD. CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 418... VALID 290828Z - 291000Z STRONG/POSSIBLY SVR TSTM NW JMS SHOULD CONTINUE TO MOVE NNEWD APPROXIMATELY 50 KT ALONG 850 MB FRONT TOWARD DVL AREA...WHERE SFC TEMPS UPPER 50S F AND ASSOCIATED STABLE LAYER IN FCST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL IS LIMITED/ISOLATED. CONVECTION PRODUCED 33 KT GUST AT JMS. POTENTIAL REMAINS FOR OCCASIONAL SVR HAIL. BECAUSE OF LIMITED TIME/AREA AFFECTED...PRIND ADDITIONAL WW WILL NOT BE NECESSARY. FARTHER SE...GUST FRONT FROM INITIAL TSTM CLUSTER PRODUCED 39 KT GUST AT ABR METAR/ASOS BUT MEASURED 54 KT GUST ON WFO ABR WIND EQUIPMENT...AS WELL AS VEGETATIVE DAMAGE IN CLARK COUNTY. ALTHOUGH GUST FRONT IS WELL REMOVED FROM ANY THUNDER...POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING GUSTS MAY CONTINUE THROUGH NERN CORNER SD BEFORE ASSOCIATED DENSITY CURRENT WEAKENS. ISOLATED TSTMS MAY DEVELOP ATOP OUTFLOW POOL AND BEHIND GUST FRONT...BUT SVR POTENTIAL APPEARS LIMITED ATTM. PER COORD W/FSD...SERN SD IS BEING REMOVED FROM WW...AND REMAINING PORTIONS WW MAY BE EXPIRATION OR ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AS SCHEDULED. ..EDWARDS.. 05/29/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MPX...FGF...ABR...BIS... 46589720 47089803 47029929 49049937 48999786 47399740 46829526 45209639 45169756  From mcd at goshenarc.org Mon May 29 10:12:49 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Mon, 29 May 2006 06:12:49 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 291008 SWOMCD SPC MCD 291007 NYZ000-291200- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1019 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0507 AM CDT MON MAY 29 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS N-CENTRAL/WRN NY. CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 291007Z - 291200Z AIR MASS ABOVE SFC APPEARS TO BE DESTABILIZING IN PROSPECTIVE INFLOW REGION OF TSTM CLUSTER THAT WAS MOVING SEWD ACROSS ERN LAKE ONTARIO AS OF 0945Z. STRONGEST CELLS MAY PRODUCE HAIL AS THEY MOVE SEWD ACROSS AREA BOUNDED BY SERN SHORE OF LAKE ONTARIO AND ROC...UCA...BGM...ELM. WW NOT ANTICIPATED BECAUSE OF MRGL NATURE OF EVENT AND SMALL TIME/SPATIAL SCALE. MODIFIED RUC SOUNDINGS INITIALLY SHOW UNFAVORABLE THERMODYNAMIC CONDITIONS BOTH SFC AND ALOFT OVER MOST OF THIS AREA...WITH ALMOST NO BUOYANCY...WHEN MODIFIED FOR LATEST SFC OBS. HOWEVER...INCREASINGLY MOIST WLY LLJ -- UP TO ABOUT 30 KT AS INDICATED FROM BUF VWP -- SHOULD LEAD TO NEAR SATURATION AROUND 850 MB LEVEL...AND STEEPENED LOW-MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES THROUGH WAA. RESULT SHOULD BE NARROW CORRIDOR OF ELEVATED MUCAPES 500-1000 J/KG. SMALL ZONE OF ENHANCED 40-45 KT MIDLEVEL FLOW MOVING ACROSS THIS AREA MAY BE ASSOCIATED WITH TIGHTENED MESOBETA SCALE HEIGHT GRADIENT ON SW SIDE OF AN MCV...PRODUCED INITIALLY BY MCS THAT DEVELOPED ABOUT 30 HOURS AGO ACROSS WI. THIS MAY ENHANCE DEEP-LAYER SHEAR ENOUGH TO AID ORGANIZATION OF ELEVATED/MULTICELLULAR TSTMS AND INTRODUCE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED HAIL. ..EDWARDS.. 05/29/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...BGM...BUF... 43527743 43477688 43597653 43767618 43707562 43137536 42387550 42207600 42167689 43087766 43437778  From mcd at goshenarc.org Mon May 29 15:39:43 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Mon, 29 May 2006 11:39:43 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 291537 SWOMCD SPC MCD 291537 IAZ000-MOZ000-KSZ000-NEZ000-291700- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1020 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1037 AM CDT MON MAY 29 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN KS...W CNTRL/NW MO INTO W CNTRL IA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 291537Z - 291700Z A WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED IN THE NEAR TERM...BUT TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF A CONSOLIDATING COLD POOL/AN INCREASINGLY ORGANIZED SEVERE THREAT...WHICH COULD NECESSITATE A WW LATER THIS AFTERNOON. VIGOROUS CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT...ONGOING WEST OF THE I-35 CORRIDOR...FROM EAST CENTRAL KANSAS INTO SOUTHWEST IOWA...APPEARS MOSTLY IN RESPONSE TO A ZONE OF STRONGER LOWER/MID TROPOSPHERIC WARM ADVECTION. THIS IS OCCURRING NEAR WEAKENING LOW-LEVEL JET STREAK...JUST AHEAD OF SURFACE FRONT SLOWLY ADVANCING THROUGH THE MID MISSOURI VALLEY. ACTIVITY IS MOST LIKELY BASED ABOVE A CAPPING INVERSION LAYER...BUT UNSATURATED LOW/MID-LEVEL PROFILES WITH CAPE AROUND 2000 J/KG ARE PROVIDING A FAVORABLE THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT FOR ISOLATED DOWNBURSTS AND MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL DESPITE WEAKLY SHEARED FLOW REGIME. FORCING IS PROGGED TO PERSIST AND GRADUALLY DEVELOP NORTH/ NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE INTERSTATE 35 CORRIDOR...INCLUDING THE KANSAS CITY AND DES MOINES AREAS...THROUGH THE 18-19Z TIME FRAME. MODELS SUGGEST THIS LARGE-SCALE ASCENT MAY WEAKEN THEREAFTER...BUT INHIBITION MAY BE SUFFICIENTLY WEAKENED BY THAT TIME FOR CONTINUING BOUNDARY LAYER CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ON THUNDERSTORM OUTFLOWS. ..KERR.. 05/29/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...ARX...SGF...DMX...EAX...FSD...OAX...TOP...ICT... 40979541 41869517 42979512 43349380 43019287 41919258 40269286 38759434 37869515 37729595 39219603  From mcd at goshenarc.org Mon May 29 16:28:18 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Mon, 29 May 2006 12:28:18 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 291622 SWOMCD SPC MCD 291622 MNZ000-291815- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1021 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1122 AM CDT MON MAY 29 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...MN CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 291622Z - 291815Z TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED FOR AN INCREASING SEVERE THREAT. A WW WILL PROBABLY BE NEEDED BY MID/LATE AFTERNOON...PERHAPS EARLIER. ON THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF A SIGNIFICANT UPPER TROUGH LIFTING THROUGH THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS...MODELS SUGGEST STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE CONTRIBUTING TO STRONG INSTABILITY IN MOIST PRE-FRONTAL ENVIRONMENT ACROSS MINNESOTA. WITH SURFACE DEW POINTS IN THE MID/UPPER 60S...OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS INDICATES MIXED LAYER CAPE IS ON THE ORDER OF 3000 TO 4000 J/KG. LOWER/MID-LEVEL INHIBITION IS STILL SUBSTANTIAL IN MOST AREAS...BUT BEGINNING TO WEAKEN WITH INCREASING INSOLATION. ALTHOUGH STRONGEST MID/UPPER FORCING SEEMS LIKELY TO REMAIN TO THE WEST OF SURFACE FRONT...MODELS SUGGEST ENOUGH LIFT IN CAPPING LAYER TO SUPPORT THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH PRIMARY DEVELOPMENT PROBABLY WILL NOT OCCUR UNTIL NEAR/SHORTLY AFTER THE PEAK HEATING HOURS...INITIATION APPEARS POSSIBLE AS EARLY AS 18-19Z...NEAR FRONTAL ZONE ACROSS WEST CENTRAL INTO NORTHWEST MINNESOTA. A GRADUAL INCREASE IN COVERAGE IS THEN EXPECTED EASTWARD ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL MINNESOTA...MAINLY NEAR/NORTH OF ST. CLOUD INTO THE INTERNATIONAL FALLS AREA...THROUGH 21Z. DEEP LAYER SHEAR MAY NOT BE STRONG...BUT MODERATE LOW/MID-LEVEL FLOW FIELDS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO RISK FOR DAMAGING DOWNBURSTS IN FAVORABLE THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT. ISOLATED LARGE HAIL WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE IN STRONGER CELLS. ..KERR.. 05/29/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...DLH...MPX...FGF... 48239595 48869588 49629545 50709549 50819398 50289254 49919180 48989218 48479258 47419320 46289356 44319433 44689510 45459571 46529593 47589595  From mcd at goshenarc.org Mon May 29 20:04:24 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Mon, 29 May 2006 16:04:24 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 292003 SWOMCD SPC MCD 292002 MNZ000-WIZ000-IAZ000-292200- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1022 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0302 PM CDT MON MAY 29 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL/ERN MN...PARTS OF WRN WI/NRN IA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 419... VALID 292002Z - 292200Z SEVERE THREAT IS INCREASING ACROSS PARTS OF THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. CONTINUE WW 419. SIGNIFICANT SHORT WAVE TROUGH CONTINUES TO LIFT THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS. WHILE PRIMARY FORCING FOR LARGE-SCALE ASCENT REMAINS TO THE WEST OF THE SURFACE FRONT...AN AREA OF STRONGER MID-LEVEL FORCING IN WARM SECTOR TO THE EAST HAS AIDED ONGOING VIGOROUS CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT NORTH OF ST. CLOUD INTO AREAS WEST OF INTERNATIONAL FALLS. THIS FORCING IS EXPECTED TO LIFT THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF NORTHEAST MINNESOTA BY 30/00Z. EMBEDDED WITHIN THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY STEEP LAPSE RATES...HIGH BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE AND CAPE ON THE ORDER OF 3000 TO 4000 J/KG...DAMAGING DOWNBURSTS AND LARGE HAIL APPEAR LIKELY NEXT FEW HOURS. EVENTUALLY...MERGING COLD POOLS COULD CONTRIBUTE TO BROADER SCALE DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL WEST THROUGH NORTHWEST OF DULUTH INTO THE ARROWHEAD BY 22-23Z. FARTHER SOUTH...DESPITE WEAK MID-LEVEL FORCING...WEAKENING INHIBITION AND STRENGTHENING LIFT ALONG/JUST AHEAD OF SURFACE FRONT WILL PROBABLY SUPPORT ADDITIONAL CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT WEST OF THE INTERSTATE 35 CORRIDOR THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF MINNESOTA LATE THIS AFTERNOON. ACTIVITY COULD DEVELOP INTO AREAS NEAR/EAST OF FORT DODGE IA...BUT DEVELOPMENT FARTHER SOUTH/SOUTHWEST MAY BE INHIBITED BY STABILIZING INFLUENCE OF CONVECTIVE CLUSTER OVER NORTHWEST MISSOURI. ..KERR.. 05/29/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...DLH...ARX...MPX...DMX... 47819425 49559384 50499379 49989130 48929036 47769050 46229227 45139267 43919312 42899399 42719462 43909423 44829399 46259427  From mcd at goshenarc.org Mon May 29 20:35:07 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Mon, 29 May 2006 16:35:07 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 292032 SWOMCD SPC MCD 292032 KSZ000-OKZ000-TXZ000-292230- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1023 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0332 PM CDT MON MAY 29 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...S CNTRL KS/W OK/NW TX CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 292032Z - 292230Z SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS...WESTERN OKLAHOMA...AND NORTHWEST TEXAS. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS ARE THE PRIMARY THREAT. A WW IS POSSIBLE BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON. LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES A DEVELOPING CU FIELD AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT STRETCHES ROUGHLY FROM GBD TO NW OF CDS TO LBB. AS DAYTIME HEATING CONTINUES...THE AIRMASS AHEAD OF THE FRONT CONTINUES TO DESTABILIZE...WITH MLCAPE VALUES RANGING FROM AROUND 2000 TO ABOVE 3000 J/KG. A RELATIVELY STRONG CAPPING INVERSION IS IN PLACE OVER THE REGION...HOWEVER...CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT AND AT A DRYLINE/FRONTAL INTERSECTION NW OF CDS IS EXPECTED TO HELP TRIGGER CONVECTION BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR PROFILES INDICATE WEAK WIND SPEEDS AND LITTLE DIRECTIONAL SHEAR...AND THEREFORE ANY STORMS THAT FORM ARE EXPECTED TO BE MAINLY MULTICELLUAR IN NATURE. ADDITIONALLY...GIVEN THE MODERATE SURFACE TEMPERATURE-DEWPOINT SPREADS IN THE REGION...STORMS WILL BE FAIRLY HIGH-BASED. THE VERY UNSTABLE THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT...WHICH WILL APPROACH MLCAPE VALUES OF 4000 J/KG BY 00Z...WILL SUPPORT LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. ..LEVIT.. 05/29/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...TOP...ICT...OUN...DDC...SJT...LUB...AMA... 38809816 38729715 38159709 37379753 36769771 35649813 35039826 34239866 33699913 33279974 33160017 33170065 33240135 33890115 34410072 34920028 35450008 36349978 36909956 37419901 38079847 38489822  From mcd at goshenarc.org Mon May 29 23:05:45 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Mon, 29 May 2006 19:05:45 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 292304 SWOMCD SPC MCD 292303 MNZ000-WIZ000-IAZ000-300030- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1024 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0603 PM CDT MON MAY 29 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN MN...NERN IA...WRN WI CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 419...420... VALID 292303Z - 300030Z WEAK COLD FRONT CONTINUES DEVELOPING EAST INTO VERY UNSTABLE AIR MASS FROM ERN MN/NERN IA ACROSS WRN WI. LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH FRONTAL CIRCULATION AND BROADLY DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT WILL BE SUFFICIENT TO MAINTAIN VIGOROUS DEEP CONVECTION ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING. STRONGER DEEP LAYER SHEAR EXISTS ACROSS MN PORTIONS OF WATCH 419 WHERE 40KT MID LEVEL FLOW EXISTS ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR. ADDITIONALLY...A LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARY OVER THE AREA MAY CONTRIBUTE TO LOCALLY ENHANCED LOW LEVEL SHEAR. HOWEVER...LOWER INSTABILITY TO THE SOUTH OF THE LAKE BREEZE MAY LIMIT SEVERE STORM POTENTIAL CLOSER TO THE LAKE. STORMS WILL LIKELY PERSIST INTO WRN WI THROUGH THE EVENING. EFFECTIVE SHEAR AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT IN THIS AREA WAS WEAKER THAN FARTHER NORTH. HOWEVER...GIVEN MAGNITUDE OF INSTABILITY... EXPECT ORGANIZED MULTICELL STORMS WITH HAIL AND WIND POTENTIAL TO SPREAD EAST INTO SERN PORTIONS OF WW 419...AND ERN PORTIONS OF WW 420 OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. ..CARBIN.. 05/29/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...DVN...DLH...ARX...MPX...DMX... 42259174 42259482 45379405 48659391 48119097 45379062  From mcd at goshenarc.org Tue May 30 00:46:38 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Mon, 29 May 2006 20:46:38 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 300045 SWOMCD SPC MCD 300045 KSZ000-OKZ000-TXZ000-300215- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1025 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0745 PM CDT MON MAY 29 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...KS...OK CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 421... VALID 300045Z - 300215Z SMALL AREA OF INTENSE CONVECTION PERSISTS ACROSS WOODS AND GRANT COUNTY OK THIS EVENING WITH ADDITIONAL STORMS DEVELOPING ALONG STALLED COLD FRONT NEWD INTO KS. MEANWHILE...ACTIVITY SWWD ALONG THE DRYLINE INTO WRN OK HAS DIMINISHED. DIAGNOSTIC DATA...ICT AND HBR PROFILERS...SUGGESTED THAT KS STORMS WERE OCCURRING IN AN AREA WITH ADEQUATE SHEAR FOR SUPERCELLS. THIS IS CONFIRMED BY LEFT-SPLIT STORM NOW MOVING THROUGH STAFFORD COUNTY. FARTHER SOUTH...WEAK BUT DIFFLUENT MID LEVEL FLOW AND MESOSCALE FORCING ALONG THE COLD POOL ASSOCIATED WITH OK CONVECTION MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR ADDITIONAL STORM DEVELOPMENT WITHIN VERY UNSTABLE AIR MASS TONIGHT. THIS DEVELOPMENT MAY BE FURTHER DRIVEN BY INCREASING NOCTURNAL LOW LEVEL JET DIRECTED PREFERENTIALLY INTO THE FRONT AND NUMEROUS OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES ACROSS THE REGION. GIVEN MEAGER SHEAR...EXPECT PRIMARILY MULTICELLULAR STORMS WITH LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND/LARGE HAIL...AND HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL. ..CARBIN.. 05/30/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...TOP...ICT...OUN...DDC...LUB...AMA... 38949831 38889676 34549878 34540039 37279933  From mcd at goshenarc.org Tue May 30 03:40:36 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Mon, 29 May 2006 23:40:36 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 300337 SWOMCD SPC MCD 300336 KSZ000-MOZ000-IAZ000-NEZ000-OKZ000-300600- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1026 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1036 PM CDT MON MAY 29 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...SERN NEB...ERN KS...NRN/CNTRL OK CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...HEAVY RAINFALL VALID 300336Z - 300600Z SEVERE STORMS WITH HAIL...LOCALLY HIGH WINDS...AND TORRENTIAL RAIN EXPECTED TO PERSIST ACROSS PARTS OF THE SRN PLAINS THROUGH LATE TONIGHT. ADDITIONAL WATCHES ARE NOT CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED DUE TO SCATTERED/RANDOM NATURE OF SEVERE THREAT...AND LACK OF LARGER SCALE ORGANIZATION GIVEN RELATIVELY WEAK FLOW ENVIRONMENT. MOST INTENSE ACTIVITY HAS BEEN ALONG THE STALLED SURFACE FRONT ACROSS NERN KS LATE THIS EVENING. THIS COMPLEX HAS RECENTLY DEVELOPED A LARGE COLD POOL AND STRONGER UPDRAFTS ARE LIKELY TO SHOW SOME EWD/SEWD PROPAGATION INTO INCREASING LOW LEVEL INFLOW. SIMILAR SCENARIO APPEARS TO BE UNFOLDING ACROSS NWRN OK WHERE ADDITIONAL UPDRAFTS HAVE DEVELOPED ATOP MCS COLD POOL AS MOIST LOW LEVEL SLY FLOW IN WEAKLY CAPPED ENVIRONMENT FUELS NEW DEVELOPMENT. FORWARD PROPAGATING CLUSTERS OF STORMS WITH REPORTS OF STRONG WINDS WERE OVER SCNTRL KS AND NCNTRL OK. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD CONTINUE TO BE SUPPORTED BY INFLOW OF VERY MOIST/UNSTABLE AIR AND MESOSCALE ASCENT ALONG NUMEROUS RESIDUAL OUTFLOWS SITUATED ACROSS SERN KS AND NERN OK. ENTIRE REGION LIES BENEATH PRONOUNCED THICKNESS DIFFLUENCE AND GENERALLY WEAK STEERING CURRENTS SUGGESTING THAT LOCALLY EXCESSIVE RAINFALL COULD OCCUR FROM EITHER REPEAT OR TRAINING CONVECTION. DISCRETE CELLS ENCOUNTERING POCKETS OF SLIGHTLY STRONGER EFFECTIVE SHEAR MAY ALSO ACQUIRE SUPERCELLULAR CHARACTERISTICS LEADING TO GREATER HAIL POTENTIAL. ..CARBIN.. 05/30/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...EAX...TSA...OAX...TOP...ICT...OUN...GID...DDC... 36989666 35589745 35489891 36319983 37849929 40739682 41169575 39839543 38019649  From mcd at goshenarc.org Tue May 30 06:14:16 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Tue, 30 May 2006 02:14:16 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 300612 SWOMCD SPC MCD 300612 IAZ000-MOZ000-KSZ000-NEZ000-300845- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1027 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0112 AM CDT TUE MAY 30 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS EXTREME SERN NEB...SERN IA...EXTREME NERN MO...EXTREME NERN KS. CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL VALID 300612Z - 300845Z SMALL MCS -- NOW PRODUCING HEAVY RAINFALL AND INTERMITTENT REPORTS OF HAIL AOB 1 INCH DIAMETER OVER SERN NEB -- IS FCST TO MAINTAIN ITSELF AS IT PROPAGATES SLOWLY EWD/ESEWD TOWARD NWRN MO/SWRN IA. ALTHOUGH OCCASIONAL HAIL WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE...ORGANIZED SVR THREAT IS TOO MRGL FOR WW. MAIN HAZARD WILL COME FROM HEAVY RAIN RATES -- 2-3 INCHES/HOUR. SLOW MOTION OF COMPLEX...AND CELL MERGERS ARISING FROM DEVELOPMENT OF ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY IN INFLOW REGION...WILL COMPOUND THREAT. RICH LOW LEVEL AIR MASS WILL BE LIFTED OVER SLOW MOVING OUTFLOW BOUNDARY AS ADDITIONAL CELLS DEVELOP ON BOTH SIDES OF THAT BOUNDARY...AIDING EWD PROPAGATION OF WHOLE TSTM CLUSTER. ACTIVITY MAY TURN SOMEWHAT SEWD IN NEXT 2-3 HOURS TOWARD AXIS OF GREATEST INSTABILITY -- BETWEEN STJ-MKC AND AHEAD OF OUTFLOW FROM SEPARATE COMPLEX NOW EVIDENT BETWEEN EMP-MHK. COMPLEX SHOULD REMAIN EFFICIENT PRECIP GENERATOR GIVEN FAVORABLY MOIST AND BUOYANT INFLOW AIR. MODIFIED TOP RAOB AND RUC FCST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST ELEVATED MUCAPE 2000-3000 J/KG...15-16 G/KG MEAN MIXING RATIO...AND PW AROUND 1.5 INCHES THAT ALSO IS EVIDENT IN LATEST GPS PW DATA OVER AREA. ALTHOUGH LLJ DOES NOT APPEAR PARTICULARLY STRONG OVER MOST OF THIS AREA...NARROW CORRIDOR OF 30-50 KT SLY FLOW JUST ABOVE SFC IS BEING SAMPLED BY EAX VWP AND MAY AID THIS ACTIVITY AS WELL. ..EDWARDS.. 05/30/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...DMX...EAX...OAX...TOP... 40099627 40889580 41199559 41209525 41189504 41139462 40709477 40369494 39929525 39889575  From mcd at goshenarc.org Tue May 30 06:18:29 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Tue, 30 May 2006 02:18:29 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 300616 SWOMCD SPC MCD 300616 COR IAZ000-MOZ000-KSZ000-NEZ000-300845- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1027 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0116 AM CDT TUE MAY 30 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS EXTREME SERN NEB...SWRN IA...EXTREME NWRN MO...EXTREME NERN KS. CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL VALID 300616Z - 300845Z CORRECTED FOR TYPOS IN HEADER SMALL MCS -- NOW PRODUCING HEAVY RAINFALL AND INTERMITTENT REPORTS OF HAIL AOB 1 INCH DIAMETER OVER SERN NEB -- IS FCST TO MAINTAIN ITSELF AS IT PROPAGATES SLOWLY EWD/ESEWD TOWARD NWRN MO/SWRN IA. ALTHOUGH OCCASIONAL HAIL WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE...ORGANIZED SVR THREAT IS TOO MRGL FOR WW. MAIN HAZARD WILL COME FROM HEAVY RAIN RATES -- 2-3 INCHES/HOUR. SLOW MOTION OF COMPLEX...AND CELL MERGERS ARISING FROM DEVELOPMENT OF ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY IN INFLOW REGION...WILL COMPOUND THREAT. RICH LOW LEVEL AIR MASS WILL BE LIFTED OVER SLOW MOVING OUTFLOW BOUNDARY AS ADDITIONAL CELLS DEVELOP ON BOTH SIDES OF THAT BOUNDARY...AIDING EWD PROPAGATION OF WHOLE TSTM CLUSTER. ACTIVITY MAY TURN SOMEWHAT SEWD IN NEXT 2-3 HOURS TOWARD AXIS OF GREATEST INSTABILITY -- BETWEEN STJ-MKC AND AHEAD OF OUTFLOW FROM SEPARATE COMPLEX NOW EVIDENT BETWEEN EMP-MHK. COMPLEX SHOULD REMAIN EFFICIENT PRECIP GENERATOR GIVEN FAVORABLY MOIST AND BUOYANT INFLOW AIR. MODIFIED TOP RAOB AND RUC FCST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST ELEVATED MUCAPE 2000-3000 J/KG...15-16 G/KG MEAN MIXING RATIO...AND PW AROUND 1.5 INCHES THAT ALSO IS EVIDENT IN LATEST GPS PW DATA OVER AREA. ALTHOUGH LLJ DOES NOT APPEAR PARTICULARLY STRONG OVER MOST OF THIS AREA...NARROW CORRIDOR OF 30-50 KT SLY FLOW JUST ABOVE SFC IS BEING SAMPLED BY EAX VWP AND MAY AID THIS ACTIVITY AS WELL. ..EDWARDS.. 05/30/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...DMX...EAX...OAX...TOP... 40099627 40889580 41199559 41209525 41189504 41139462 40709477 40369494 39929525 39889575  From mcd at goshenarc.org Tue May 30 09:32:51 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Tue, 30 May 2006 05:32:51 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 300930 SWOMCD SPC MCD 300930 KSZ000-COZ000-301230- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1028 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0430 AM CDT TUE MAY 30 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS E-CENTRAL/SERN CO...SWRN AND EXTREME W-CENTRAL KS. CONCERNING...CONVECTIVE TRENDS...SVR TSTM POTENTIAL. VALID 300930Z - 301230Z RAPID INCREASE IN CONVECTIVE COVERAGE SHOULD CONTINUE OVER REGION WITH OCCASIONAL SEVERE HAIL POSSIBLE. SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS QUASISTATIONARY FRONTAL ZONE -- SOMEWHAT DIFFUSED BY OUTFLOW FROM EARLIER CONVECTION OVER MUCH OF CENTRAL/SRN PLAINS -- EXTENDS FROM SERN NEB SWWD ACROSS RSL/HYS AREA...TO BETWEEN LBL-EHA...TO BETWEEN DHT-CAO. FRONT MAY DRIFT WNWWD OVER KS AND OK/TX PANHANDLES. BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS AND WAA ATOP OUTFLOW POOLS MAY SUSTAIN/ENHANCE CONVECTION OVER SWRN KS AHEAD OF FRONT. NW OF FRONT...LOW LEVEL ISENTROPIC ASCENT AND CONVERGENT 850 MB FLOW WILL CONTINUE OVER SERN CO AND FAR WRN KS. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN PARCELS LIFTED TO LFC...AMIDST FAVORABLE SELY FLOW AND MOIST ADVECTION INTO BOTTOM OF CONVECTIVE LIFTED LAYER. MOISTURE CHANNEL IMAGERY INDICATES WEAK UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING NEWD ACROSS NWRN NM/SWRN CO. COOLING IR CLOUD TOPS ARE EVIDENT IN FOREGOING MID/UPPER LEVEL CLOUD PLUME...BOTH FROM CONVECTIVE TOPS AND FROM ASCENT WITHIN NON CONVECTIVE CLOUD BEARING LAYERS. THIS INDICATES LARGE SCALE LIFT REASONABLY IS INCREASING ACROSS THIS REGION UNDER COMBINED INFLUENCE OF MIDLEVEL DPVA AHEAD OF THAT TROUGH...LOW LEVEL WAA...AND UVV BENEATH RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF UPPER JET MAX. MLCAPES IN RUC SOUNDINGS INCREASE TO AS MUCH AS 2500 J/KG THROUGH 13Z...BUT WITH DECREASING EFFECTIVE SHEAR RELATED TO WEAKENING SELYS WITH TIME. STILL...VERTICAL SHEAR WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR SOME STORMS TO PRODUCE LARGE HAIL. ..EDWARDS.. 05/30/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...DDC...GLD...PUB...BOU... 38210440 38900358 39450179 39420074 39129999 38639956 37829925 37349977 37120101 37080246 37610412  From mcd at goshenarc.org Tue May 30 16:20:38 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Tue, 30 May 2006 12:20:38 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 301613 SWOMCD SPC MCD 301613 ILZ000-WIZ000-IAZ000-301815- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1029 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1113 AM CDT TUE MAY 30 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN IA...SRN WI AND NRN IL CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 301613Z - 301815Z STORMS ARE IN THE PROCESS OF INCREASING IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY ACROSS NERN IA INTO SRN WI. ADDITIONAL STORMS MAY DEVELOP FARTHER S INTO NRN IL LATER THIS AFTERNOON. ISOLATED STRONG WIND GUSTS AND HAIL MAY ACCOMPANY THE STRONGER STORMS. AREA WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE WW LATER THIS AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS ACROSS S CNTRL WI THEN SWWD AS A STATIONARY FRONT THROUGH ERN AND SRN IA WITH AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM NERN IA EWD THROUGH SRN WI. THE ATMOSPHERE CONTINUES TO DESTABILIZE WITH MLCAPE FROM 1500 TO 2000 J/KG EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON. STORMS HAVE BEEN INCREASING ACROSS SRN WI IN VICINITY OF THE E-W BOUNDARY. WEAKENING CAP AND ASCENT DOWNSTREAM FROM MCV MOVING NEWD THROUGH ERN IA WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT STORM DEVELOPMENT...ESPECIALLY IN VICINITY OF PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED BOUNDARIES. CONVECTION HAS BECOME RATHER WIDESPREAD ACROSS SRN WI...AND THIS MAY TEND TO LIMIT DESTABILIZATION POTENTIAL IN THIS AREA. FARTHER S ACROSS NRN IL FORCING FOR INITIATION WILL BE LESS FOCUSED...BUT WEAK CAP AND STRONGER HEATING OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER MIGHT CONTRIBUTE TO A FEW STORMS THIS AFTERNOON. AMBIENT VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES ARE WEAK. HOWEVER...A BAND OF 30 KT 500 MB FLOW ON SRN PERIPHERY OF MCV WILL CONTRIBUTE TO SLIGHTLY BETTER WIND PROFILES AND POSSIBLY BETTER STORM ORGANIZATION OVER NRN IL...BUT STORM MODE WILL REMAIN MULTICELLULAR. MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE MODEST...BUT THE THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT MAY BECOME AT LEAST MARGINALLY SUFFICIENT FOR ISOLATED HAIL AND A FEW DOWNBURSTS...ESPECIALLY IF STORMS MANAGE TO DEVELOP S OF ONGOING ACTIVITY. ..DIAL.. 05/30/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LOT...ILX...MKX...DVN...ARX... 41609130 43309085 43838806 42508799 41538770 40809048  From mcd at goshenarc.org Tue May 30 16:55:09 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Tue, 30 May 2006 12:55:09 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 301653 SWOMCD SPC MCD 301653 OHZ000-MIZ000-KYZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-301900- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1030 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1153 AM CDT TUE MAY 30 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...NRN KY...MUCH OF IND...WRN OH AND SRN MI CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 301653Z - 301900Z SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE INTO THE AFTERNOON. ISOLATED STRONG WIND GUSTS AND HAIL WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS. OVERALL THREAT IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE SUFFICIENT FOR A WW. THUNDERSTORMS HAVE ALREADY DEVELOPED OVER PARTS OF THE OH VALLEY FROM IND INTO OH AND ACTIVITY SHOULD CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE THIS AFTERNOON. THIS REGION IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF AN UPPER RIDGE WITH VERY WEAK SHEAR AND MODEST MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. HOWEVER...THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES WITH MODERATE INSTABILITY...MLCAPE AROUND 2000 J/KG...AND LOW LEVEL TEMPERATURE-DEWPOINT SPREADS UP TO 25F WILL SUPPORT THREAT OF STRONG STORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING ISOLATED DOWNBURSTS AND HAIL. LACK OF A LOW LEVEL FOCUS AND WEAK VERTICAL SHEAR SUGGEST ACTIVITY WILL BE DISORGANIZED AND PULSE IN CHARACTER...WITH ANY SEVERE EVENTS REMAINING BRIEF AND ISOLATED. ..DIAL.. 05/30/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...CLE...ILN...DTX...LMK...IWX...IND...PAH...ILX... 41088257 39698304 37978523 37658793 41148665 42058465  From mcd at goshenarc.org Tue May 30 17:23:32 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Tue, 30 May 2006 13:23:32 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 301722 SWOMCD SPC MCD 301721 NYZ000-MAZ000-VTZ000-CTZ000-NJZ000-PAZ000-301915- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1031 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1221 PM CDT TUE MAY 30 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN NY...WRN VT...WRN MA...WRN CT...NERN PA...NRN NJ CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 301721Z - 301915Z THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY AS THEY DEVELOP SWD THROUGH PARTS OF THE NERN STATES AND NEW ENGLAND THIS AFTERNOON. THE STRONGER STORMS MAY BECOME CAPABLE OF PRODUCING STRONG WIND GUSTS AND HAIL. WW WILL PROBABLY NOT BE NECESSARY...BUT AREA WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED. THIS AFTERNOON A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS N-S ACROSS EXTREME ERN NY. ALONG AND W OF THIS BOUNDARY...THE ATMOSPHERE HAS BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH MLCAPE FROM 2000 TO 2500 J/KG. STORMS HAVE BEEN INCREASING ACROSS NERN NY INTO NWRN VT IN VICINITY OF THE FRONT AS WELL AS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. WV IMAGERY SHOWS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH ADVANCING SEWD TOWARD NERN NY...WHICH MIGHT CONTRIBUTE TO A GREATER CONCENTRATION OF STORMS IN THIS AREA. ACTIVITY IS EMBEDDED WITHIN MODEST 15 TO 20 KT 700-500 MB FLOW AND WILL GRADUALLY SPREAD SEWD. OTHER MORE ISOLATED ACTIVITY MAY DEVELOP FARTHER S. VERTICAL SHEAR IS WEAK AND SUPPORTIVE OF MULTICELLS. HOWEVER...THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT WILL CONTRIBUTE TO A THREAT OF ISOLATED WET MICROBURSTS AND HAIL WITH THE STRONGER STORMS. ..DIAL.. 05/30/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...BOX...BTV...OKX...ALY...PHI...BGM...BUF... 43257535 44747457 44877335 44007280 42327265 40787325 40487445 41217547  From mcd at goshenarc.org Tue May 30 18:50:10 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Tue, 30 May 2006 14:50:10 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 301848 SWOMCD SPC MCD 301848 KSZ000-OKZ000-TXZ000-302045- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1032 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0148 PM CDT TUE MAY 30 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...SRN/CNTRL KS INTO FAR NWRN OK/NERN TX PANHANDLE CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 301848Z - 302045Z ELEVATED TSTMS WILL LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH MID-AFTERNOON ACROSS SWRN KS/OK PANHANDLE AND MAY EVENTUALLY BACKBUILD AND BECOME INCREASINGLY SFC-BASED FURTHER S. FURTHER E...TSTMS SHOULD CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ALONG QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT FROM P28 TO SLN. STEEP LAPSE-RATES AND MODEST DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL PROVIDE A POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. AREA IS BEING MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE WW IN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO. SCATTERED TSTMS REMAIN ONGOING ACROSS SWRN KS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...S OF DECAYING MCS NOW IN S-CNTRL NEB. STORMS HAVE GENERALLY BEEN CONFINED N OF A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT...FROM PYX TO P28 TO SLN. RUC FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE MUCAPES IN THIS ZONE FROM AROUND 1000 J/KG WITH EFFECTIVE SHEAR AROUND 30 KTS. THIS SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR A MARGINAL LARGE HAIL THREAT. ACTIVITY FURTHER E...FROM BARBER TO MCPHERSON COUNTIES KS...ARE IN A MORE UNSTABLE AIR MASS WITH MLCAPES OF 1500 TO 2000 J/KG. ALTHOUGH DEEP-LAYER SHEAR IS MODEST /0-6 KM AROUND 20 KT PER HBR PROFILER/...STEEP LAPSE-RATES SHOULD SUPPORT LARGE-HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND THREAT. STORMS MAY EVENTUALLY CONSOLIDATE INTO A MULTICELLULAR CLUSTER TOWARDS LATE AFTERNOON. ..GRAMS.. 05/30/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...TOP...ICT...OUN...DDC...AMA... 35859961 35290021 35050088 35000180 35500184 36040162 36930110 37660037 37899927 38419840 38879782 39439740 39679703 39419672 39139678 38309705 37499760 36579864  From mcd at goshenarc.org Tue May 30 22:11:52 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Tue, 30 May 2006 18:11:52 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 302211 SWOMCD SPC MCD 302211 KSZ000-OKZ000-COZ000-TXZ000-NMZ000-302345- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1033 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0511 PM CDT TUE MAY 30 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN PLAINS OF CO/FAR NERN NM/FAR WRN OK PANHANDLE CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 302211Z - 302345Z SCATTERED TSTMS ARE INCREASING ALONG THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES FROM ERN CO INTO FAR NERN NM...AND SHOULD SPREAD FURTHER E TOWARDS SW KS/NW TX AND OK PANHANDLES. MODEST...BUT INCREASING...INSTABILITY AND MODERATE SHEAR WILL SUPPORT AT LEAST A MARGINAL SEVERE THREAT. A WW WILL BE ISSUED SHORTLY. TSTMS HAVE ORGANIZED AND INCREASED IN INTENSITY OVER THE PAST HOUR FROM ERN ADAMS/ERN ARAPAHOE COUNTIES SWWD INTO ERN FREMONT COUNTIES IN ERN CO. FURTHER S...MORE ISOLATED DEVELOPMENT CONTINUES IN UNION COUNTY NM. RUC FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE STORMS EXIST IN A MARGINALLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS...WITH MLCAPES OF 500 TO 1000 J/KG. CONTINUED LOW-LEVEL MOIST UPSLOPE FLOW SHOULD SUPPORT INCREASING INSTABILITY THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS AS THE ACTIVITY SPREADS E TOWARDS THE KS BORDER. ZONE OF 40 KT WSWLY 500 MB FLOW WILL SUPPORT EFFECTIVE SHEAR OF 40 TO 50 KTS AND POTENTIAL SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT. LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE MAIN SEVERE THREAT WITH STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES. IN ADDITION...AN ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT MAY ALSO EXIST WITH LOW-LEVEL ENELY FLOW BENEATH WSWLY FLOW ALOFT. HOWEVER...GENERALLY WEAK WIND SPEEDS IN THE 0-1 KM AGL LAYER /PER AREA VAD PROFILERS/ WILL TEND TO MITIGATE THIS THREAT. ..GRAMS.. 05/30/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...DDC...GLD...AMA...PUB...BOU...ABQ... 36720479 37190490 38190511 38830497 39530448 39790421 39990361 40110327 40100270 39800210 39520187 38930180 37950178 37170199 36730247 36330299 36170350 36150423 36350453 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Tue May 30 22:20:18 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Tue, 30 May 2006 18:20:18 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 302220 SWOMCD SPC MCD 302219 NHZ000-MAZ000-VTZ000-CTZ000-NYZ000-PAZ000-302315- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1034 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0519 PM CDT TUE MAY 30 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...NERN PA...ERN NY...WRN VT/MA/CT CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 422... VALID 302219Z - 302315Z ...LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS AND MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL SHOULD DEVELOP INTO THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY AND SRN CATSKILL MOUNTAINS OVER THE NEXT HOUR... ARC OF STRONG TO OCCASIONALLY SEVERE CONVECTION HAS BECOME ESTABLISHED ALONG LEADING EDGE OF MATURE MCS COLD POOL FROM DELAWARE COUNTY NY EWD ACROSS THE HUDSON VALLEY TO BERKSHIRE COUNTY MA. COMPLEX OF STORMS WAS MOVING SOUTH AT ABOUT 30KT AND WILL CONTINUE TO ENCOUNTER WARM AND UNSTABLE BOUNDARY LAYER AIR MASS...PRIMARILY FROM NERN PA TO SERN NY OVER THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS. DESPITE GENERALLY WEAK MID LEVEL FLOW...DIURNAL HEATING AND SOME CONVECTIVE-SCALE ORGANIZATION TO THE COMPLEX...COUPLED WITH MODEST DCAPE VALUES...WILL MAINTAIN THE THREAT OF LOCALLY DAMAGING DOWNBURST WINDS...AND SOME HAIL...INTO THE SRN PORTION OF WATCH 422. GIVEN GENERALLY WEAK LARGE SCALE FORCING AND SHEAR...AND TIME OF DAY...AN ADDITIONAL WATCH DOES NOT APPEAR LIKELY AT THIS TIME. ..CARBIN.. 05/30/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...GYX...BOX...BTV...OKX...ALY...PHI...BGM...BUF... 41457338 41397473 41037522 41517608 42637599 43347572 44067521 44097406 43237225 41507277 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Tue May 30 23:53:29 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Tue, 30 May 2006 19:53:29 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 302353 SWOMCD SPC MCD 302352 KSZ000-OKZ000-TXZ000-NMZ000-310115- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1035 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0652 PM CDT TUE MAY 30 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...TX PANHANDLE...NW OK...SERN KS CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 423... VALID 302352Z - 310115Z TWO MCSS...ONE ACROSS TX PANHANDLE AND ANOTHER IN SERN KS...WITH AN ISOLATED SUPERCELL IN BETWEEN ACROSS NWRN OK WILL CONTINUE TO MAKE VERY SLOW PROGRESS EWD/SWD. SEVERE THREAT SHOULD CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS...WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS ACROSS THE TX PANHANDLE INTO NWRN OK. TRANSITION TO A HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT HAS ALREADY OCCURRED WITH SERN KS MCS AND IS LIKELY OCCURRING WITH TX PANHANDLE MCS. EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS WITHIN LARGER MCS ACROSS TX PANHANDLE HAVE A HISTORY OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND REPORTS. ACTIVITY SHOULD SPREAD VERY SLOWLY EWD/BACKBUILD SWWD IN AXIS OF 1000 TO 2000 J/KG MLCAPES. MOST INTENSE CELLS SHOULD BE ACROSS BAILEY/CASTRO/SWISHER COUNTIES NEWD TO HEMPHILL/WHEELER COUNTIES OVER THE NEXT HOUR. ISOLATED SWD MOVING SUPERCELL IN BECKHAM COUNTY OK SHOULD CONTINUE TO POSE A LARGE HAIL THREAT FOR THE NEXT HOUR OR SO...WHILE BEING ABSORBED INTO TX PANHANDLE MCS. FURTHER NE...VIS IMAGERY HAS SHOWN THE COLD POOL OUTFLOW FROM THE LINEAR MCS ACROSS SERN KS HAS PUSH OUT AHEAD OF THE MAIN CONVECTIVE LINE. THIS IS LIKELY RESPONSIBLE FOR THE WEAKENING TREND OVER THE PAST HOUR OF THE LINEAR MCS. ALTHOUGH ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT IS OCCURRING THIS COLD POOL...VERY WEAK DEEP LAYER SHEAR SHOULD PRECLUDE AN ADDITIONAL WW ISSUANCE DOWNSTREAM. HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT WILL REMAIN DUE TO THE SLOW MOVEMENT OF THE MCS. ..GRAMS.. 05/30/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...TSA...TOP...ICT...OUN...LUB...AMA...ABQ... 35530302 36010200 36690068 36949957 36969839 37119774 37729711 38629606 38419558 37809568 36949594 36549669 35989772 35209889 34819959 34460006 34060124 33850214 33820305 WWWW