[MCD] SWOMCD

Fri Mar 31 19:56:01 UTC 2006

ACUS11 KWNS 311958
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 311958 
ALZ000-TNZ000-KYZ000-MSZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-LAZ000-312130-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0378
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0158 PM CST FRI MAR 31 2006

AREAS AFFECTED...MUCH OF THE LOWER MS VALLEY REGION

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 311958Z - 312130Z

STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE OVER A BROAD ZONE FROM AR AND LA
EWD INTO MS/AL/TN/KY. A FEW SEVERE STORMS ARE LIKELY...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS NRN MS/AL AND WRN TN. THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE MARGINALLY SVR
HAIL AND PERHAPS AN ISOLATED/BRIEF TORNADO. A WW IS NOT EXPECTED AT
THIS TIME.

INSTABILITY IS SLOWLY INCREASING AS MID 60S DEWPOINTS ADVECT NEWD
OUT OF ERN TX/LA...WITHIN DEEP TROPOSPHERIC WARM ADVECTION REGIME IN
WAKE OF STRONG TROUGH TO THE NORTH. MID TO UPPER LEVEL LAPSE RATES
ARE MODEST AT BEST AT 6.0-6.5 C/KM DUE TO WARMING ALOFT...THUS HAIL
PROBABILITIES WILL BE LOWERED IN 20Z OUTLOOK. HOWEVER...WIND SHEAR
PROFILES REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR ORGANIZED STORMS WITH EFFECTIVE DEEP
LAYER SHEAR VECTORS OVER 50 KT. THEREFORE MARGINALLY SVR HAIL OR
WIND MAY OCCUR. A BRIEF/ISOLATED TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT
ESPECIALLY OVER NERN MS/NWRN AL AND SWRN MIDDLE TN WHERE MODERATE
LOW LEVEL SHEAR REMAINS.

..JEWELL.. 03/31/2006

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...OHX...BMX...HUN...MOB...PAH...MEG...JAN...LZK...SHV...

32839214 34229245 36139292 36439067 37078845 37028810
36378719 34218672 32018859 31758909 31719055 32019189 

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