[MCD] SWOMCD

Mon Mar 20 10:36:15 UTC 2006

ACUS11 KWNS 201038
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 201038 
NEZ000-KSZ000-COZ000-201515-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0329
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0438 AM CST MON MAR 20 2006

AREAS AFFECTED...WESTERN KS/FAR EASTERN CO AND SOUTHERN NEB

CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW 

VALID 201038Z - 201515Z

SNOW WILL STEADILY DEVELOP/INCREASE THROUGH MID MORNING ACROSS MUCH
OF WESTERN KS/FAR EASTERN CO AND SOUTHERN NEB. SNOW RATES OF 1 IN/HR
OR GREATER ARE LIKELY BY 15Z.

AS UPPER LOW MOVES EASTWARD OUT OF NM...PRONOUNCED BLOSSOMING/
COOLING AND IMPLIED ASCENT IS EVIDENT IN WATER VAPOR/INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS ACROSS THE CENTRAL
HIGH PLAINS. A CORRESPONDING EXPANSION/INCREASE OF WSR-88D
REFLECTIVITY RETURNS ACROSS MUCH OF KS/SOUTHEAST CO/SOUTHERN NEB IS
ALSO NOTED EARLY THIS MORNING. WITH CYCLOGENESIS ACROSS NORTHEAST
NM...UPPER JET DIVERGENCE JUXTAPOSED WITH LOW LEVEL WARM
ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE AND EASTERLY UPSLOPE WILL CONTRIBUTE TO
STRONG UVVS AND INCREASING PRECIPITATION RATES THROUGH THE MORNING.
09Z RUC/00Z 4KM WRF-NMM SUGGEST POTENTIAL FOR 1 IN/HR OR GREATER
SNOW RATES BY 15Z IN A SOUTHWEST-NORTHEAST CORRIDOR FROM SOUTHEAST
CO/WESTERN KS INTO SOUTH CENTRAL NEB.

ACROSS WESTERN KS/SOUTHEAST CO...ALTHOUGH SURFACE TEMPS ARE
GENERALLY ABOVE FREEZING AS OF 10Z...ONSET OF HIGHER PRECIPITATION
RATES/DYNAMIC COOLING WILL RESULT IN A QUICK ONSET OF SNOWFALL EARLY
THIS MORNING AS BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES COOL TO NEAR/BELOW
FREEZING. 06Z NAM/09Z RUC SOUNDINGS FURTHER IMPLY THIS IS LIKELY IN
THE SHORT TERM...GENERALLY BY 12Z.

..GUYER.. 03/20/2006

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...OAX...TOP...ICT...GID...LBF...DDC...GLD...PUB...

39300256 40430148 41179969 41389671 39619752 37989962
37220082 37090176 37080253 37700322 

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