[MCD] {Spam?} SWOMCD

Sun Mar 19 07:21:38 UTC 2006

ACUS11 KWNS 190723
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 190723 
TXZ000-190800-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0311
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0123 AM CST SUN MAR 19 2006

AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF THE TX BIG BEND REGION AND THE EDWARDS
PLATEAU/HILL COUNTRY

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 94...

VALID 190723Z - 190800Z

NEW WW BEING CONSIDERED ACROSS PARTS OF THE TX BIG BEND REGION AND
THE EDWARDS PLATEAU/HILL COUNTRY OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING.

REGIONAL RADARS/MESO-ANALYSIS INDICATED THE MOST RECENT CONVECTIVE
COMPLEX WHICH HAD DEVELOPED AROUND 05Z OVER PARTS OF SW/CENTRAL TX
SHOULD CONTINUE TO TRACK TO THE E/ESE DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS
INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.  STRONG EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR VALUES
COMBINED WITH SLY LLJ PROVIDING AN INFLOW OF HIGH THETA-E AIR
SUGGESTS THIS COMPLEX SHOULD PERSIST WITH SUSTAINED ROTATING
UPDRAFTS PRODUCING PRIMARILY LARGE HAIL.  THE STRONGEST STORMS AT
THIS TIME WERE LOCATED ACROSS CROCKETT INTO SUTTON COUNTIES...WITH
THIS ACTIVITY LOCATED CLOSEST TO THE SURFACE BOUNDARY AND OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY INDICATING POTENTIAL FOR AN ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT...GIVEN
ENHANCED LOW-LEVEL SHEAR VALUES LIKELY ALONG THESE BOUNDARIES.

..PETERS.. 03/19/2006

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...FWD...EWX...SJT...MAF...

30010242 30570187 31270074 31329918 31129765 29349833
29259962 29540134 

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