[MCD] SWOMCD

[Mesoscale Convective Discussions]

ACUS11 KWNS 122138
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 122138 
ARZ000-MOZ000-TXZ000-OKZ000-122345-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0262
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0338 PM CST SUN MAR 12 2006

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN OK...WRN AR AND FAR NE TX

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 74...

VALID 122138Z - 122345Z

SUPERCELLS ARE EXPECTED TO INITIATE AND TRACK ENEWD ACROSS ERN OK
INTO WRN AR LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THE INITIATION OF ISOLATED
SUPERCELLS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE IN FAR NE TX BY EARLY EVENING. VERY
LARGE HAIL AND WIND DAMAGE WILL BE LIKELY SHORTLY AFTER INITIATION
WITH SIGNIFICANT TORNADOES POSSIBLE. A NEW TORNADO WATCH MAY BECOME
NECESSARY SOUTH OF TORNADO WATCH 74 ACROSS SE OK AND NE TX LATE THIS
AFTERNOON OR EARLY THIS EVENING.

SFC ANALYSIS CURRENTLY SHOWS A DRYLINE EXTENDING SSWWD ACROSS CNTRL
OK INTO NCNTRL TX. OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS SHOWS A MODERATELY UNSTABLE
AIRMASS EAST OF THE DRYLINE WITH STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR IN PLACE
WHICH WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS UPON INITIATION. MODERATE
CUMULUS IS EVIDENT ON VISIBLE IMAGERY JUST SOUTHEAST OF THE OKC
METRO WITH OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS SHOWING THE CAPPING INVERSION GONE
ACROSS ECNTRL OK. AS LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE CONTINUES TO INCREASE
ALONG THE DRYLINE AND LARGE-SCALE ASCENT SPREADS NEWD AHEAD OF A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...RAPID SUPERCELL
DEVELOPMENT APPEARS LIKELY BETWEEN 22Z AND 00Z. THE MOST LIKELY AREA
FOR INITIATION WOULD BE EAST TO SOUTHEAST OF THE OKC METRO AREA
WHERE THE CUMULUS FIELD APPEARS A BIT AGITATED. ADDITIONAL STORMS
SHOULD DEVELOP SWD INTO FAR NE TX AS THE CAP WEAKENS SOUTH OF THE
RED RIVER BY EARLY THIS EVENING. STRONG LOW-LEVEL SHEAR COMBINED
WITH LOW LCL HEIGHTS WILL MAKE TORNADOES LIKELY WITH THE STRONGER
SUPERCELLS THAT DEVELOP. SIGNIFICANT TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
VERY LARGE HAIL AND WIND DAMAGE LIKELY.

..BROYLES.. 03/12/2006

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LZK...SGF...SHV...TSA...FWD...OUN...

36679381 35949367 34779403 33689445 33039526 32999592
33089650 33309730 34049729 35079700 36379655 36869611
36979507 36789427 

WWWW