[MCD] SWOMCD

Sun Mar 12 19:01:51 UTC 2006

ACUS11 KWNS 121903
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 121902 
KYZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-122030-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0258
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0102 PM CST SUN MAR 12 2006

AREAS AFFECTED...WRN KY...SRN IL...SRN IND

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 121902Z - 122030Z

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT APPEARS LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON
ACROSS THE REGION. HAIL AND ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE WOULD BE THE MOST
LIKELY THREATS. HOWEVER...AN ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT WOULD ALSO BE
POSSIBLE WITH SUPERCELLS THAT INITIATE. A WW MAY BECOME NECESSARY
WITHIN 1 TO 2 HOURS.

SFC ANALYSIS CURRENTLY SHOWS A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY
ORIENTED WSW TO ENE ACROSS SRN IL INTO CNTRL IND. A LINE OF MORNING
STORMS FORMED ALONG THE BOUNDARY AND MOVED SWD INTO WRN KY SPREADING
A COLD POOL ACROSS THE AREA. HOWEVER...VISIBLE SATELLITE SHOWS
CLEARING ACROSS PARTS OF WRN KY OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS. THIS SHOULD
ALLOW SFC TEMPS TO WARM THIS AFTERNOON INCREASING THE INSTABILITY
AND ALLOWING NEW THUNDERSTORMS TO INITIATE. IF STORMS INITIATE...88D
VWPS SUGGEST ENOUGH VERTICAL SHEAR IS IN PLACE FOR ORGANIZED
MULTICELLS AND ISOLATED SUPERCELLS. HAIL...WIND DAMAGE AND AN
ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER STORMS.

..BROYLES.. 03/12/2006

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LMK...IND...PAH...

38448671 38278570 37898542 37408544 37068568 37058585
36988693 37018723 37198866 37438891 37798899 38128886
38378866 38538816 

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