[MCD] SWOMCD

[Mesoscale Convective Discussions]

ACUS11 KWNS 121729
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 121729 
ARZ000-MOZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-121930-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0256
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1129 AM CST SUN MAR 12 2006

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN KS...ERN OK...SW MO

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 121729Z - 121930Z

SUPERCELLS WILL LIKELY INITIATE THIS AFTERNOON ALONG A DRYLINE FROM
ERN KS TO CNTRL OK. DAMAGING TORNADOES...VERY LARGE HAIL AND WIND
DAMAGE WILL BE LIKELY AS STORMS INITIATE AND TRACK ENEWD ACROSS THE
REGION THIS AFTERNOON. A TORNADO WATCH WILL BE ISSUED SHORTLY.

SFC ANALYSIS CURRENTLY SHOWS A DRYLINE ORIENTED FROM NORTH TO SOUTH
FROM SCNTRL KS TO SOUTHWEST OK. SFC DEWPOINTS EAST OF THE DRYLINE
ARE IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S F WHERE MODERATE INSTABILITY IS PRESENT.
THE CAPPING INVERSION IS VERY WEAK AND STORMS SHOULD INITIATE AS
LARGE-SCALE ASCENT INCREASES AS A 100 KT MID-LEVEL JET MAX NOSES
INTO THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. SUPERCELLS WILL BE LIKELY DUE TO THE
MODERATE INSTABILITY AND STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR. IN ADDITION...STRONG
LOW-LEVEL SHEAR EVIDENT ON REGIONAL PROFILERS WILL CREATE AN
ENVIRONMENT FAVORABLE FOR TORNADOES. LONG TRACK STRONG TO VIOLENT
TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH LONG-LIVED SUPERCELLS THAT DEVELOP
AND TRACK ENEWD ACROSS ERN OK AND ERN KS LATE THIS AFTERNOON. STEEP
MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR VERY LARGE HAIL WITH
WIND DAMAGE ALSO LIKELY WITH THE STRONGER STORMS

..BROYLES.. 03/12/2006

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...SGF...SHV...EAX...TSA...TOP...ICT...OUN...

34439643 34679715 35169733 35459726 36429707 37439711
38359715 38599644 38669508 38269445 36769432 35189450
34489487 34449552 

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