[MCD] SWOMCD

Sun Mar 12 03:10:24 UTC 2006

ACUS11 KWNS 120311
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 120311 
INZ000-KYZ000-ILZ000-MOZ000-120445-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0247
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0911 PM CST SAT MAR 11 2006

AREAS AFFECTED...SRN THROUGH E CNTRL IL AND EXTREME WRN IND

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 120311Z - 120445Z

SEVERE THREAT MAY DEVELOP EWD INTO SRN AND E CNTRL IL BY 04Z.
SUPERCELLS AND LINES WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND WILL BE THE
PRIMARY THREATS...BUT ISOLATED TORNADOES MAY ALSO BE POSSIBLE. AREA
WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED...AND A WW MAY BE NEEDED IF TRENDS
SUGGEST STORMS WILL MAINTAIN THEIR INTENSITY AS THEY DEVELOP EWD.

AN AREA OF SCATTERED SUPERCELLS EXTENDS FROM SERN MO SWWD THROUGH
SWRN MO AND NWRN AR. LEAD SUPERCELL CURRENTLY OVER EXTREME SERN MO
IN MADISON AND PERRY COUNTY WILL MOVE OUT OF WW 62 BY 04Z IF IT
SURVIVES BEYOND THIS TIME. HOWEVER...THIS STORMS HAS RECENTLY SHOWN
A WEAKENING TREND. SQUALL LINE ALSO CONTINUES OVER ERN IL. THE
BOUNDARY LAYER IS LESS UNSTABLE WITH EWD EXTENT INTO IL/IND AND IS
IN THE PROCESS OF DECOUPLING WHICH COULD POSE SOME LIMITING FACTORS.
HOWEVER...STRONG SSWLY LOW LEVEL JET WILL MAINTAIN FEED OF HIGHER
THETA-E AIR AND SUPPORT SOME NEWD DESTABILIZATION... ESPECIALLY
ABOVE THE SURFACE LAYER. STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR WILL CONTINUE TO
PROMOTE ORGANIZED STORMS INCLUDING SUPERCELLS AND LINES WITH
LEWP/BOW STRUCTURES. TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED FOR A
POSSIBLE WW ISSUANCE.

..DIAL.. 03/12/2006

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...IND...PAH...ILX...LSX...

37468968 39608826 39948693 37928771 37058916 

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