[MCD] SWOMCD

Sat Mar 11 17:57:55 UTC 2006

ACUS11 KWNS 111759
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 111759 
MOZ000-ARZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-112000-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0236
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1159 AM CST SAT MAR 11 2006

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN OK...NWRN AR...WRN MO...AND EXTREME SERN KS

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 111759Z - 112000Z

SURFACE BASED STORMS MAY DEVELOP DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS
ACROSS PORTIONS OF ERN OK...AND THEN SPREAD/DEVELOP NEWD INTO
EXTREME SERN KS...SWRN MO AND NWRN AR. MONITORING AREA FOR A WW.
ALTHOUGH THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE LARGE HAIL..TORNADOES ARE ALSO
POSSIBLE.

WEAK COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM NWRN MO AND SWWD INTO EXTREME SERN KS
AND CENTRAL OK. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS ALSO MOVING NEWD THROUGH NRN
TX AND MID LEVEL CONVECTION...INCLUDING ISOLATED LIGHTNING
STRIKES...WAS LOCATED AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM ACROSS SOUTH AND EAST
CENTRAL OK. THE OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS INDICATES THE CAP HAS WEAKENED
ACROSS ERN OK...WHERE MID 70S TEMPERATURES AND 61-64 DEGREE
DEWPOINTS WERE RESULTING IN MLCAPES NEAR 1500 J/KG. THIS INSTABILITY
PLUS DEEP LAYER SHEAR AT 60-70 KT WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR
SUPERCELLS...ONCE THE BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE CAN BE TAPPED. CURRENT
THINKING IS SURFACE BASED STORMS MAY DEVELOP BY 20Z...AT WHICH TIME
A WW WOULD BE NEEDED.

..IMY.. 03/11/2006

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...SGF...EAX...TSA...ICT...OUN...

38259406 37939325 37449242 34729515 35689675 36269622
37679457 

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