[MCD] SWOMCD

Fri Mar 10 00:53:26 UTC 2006

ACUS11 KWNS 100055
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 100054 
OHZ000-KYZ000-INZ000-TNZ000-ILZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-100300-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0216
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0654 PM CST THU MAR 09 2006

AREAS AFFECTED...WRN AND CENTRAL KY/SRN IND/SWRN OH...SERN IL...FAR
NERN AR AND WRN/MIDDLE TN

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 52...54...

VALID 100054Z - 100300Z

THREAT FOR SEVERE WINDS WILL END OVER THE REMAINING PORTION OF WW 52
IN THE NEXT HALF OF AN HOUR...THUS WW 52 WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE
AT 01Z. SVR THREAT MAY REDEVELOP AFTER 02Z ACROSS PORTIONS OF
WRN/CENTRAL KY...SRN IND AND SWRN OH AND A NEW WW MAY BE NEEDED IN
THESE AREAS BEFORE THEN. 

CONVECTIVE LINE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH WW 52 AND INTO WW 55
OVER CENTRAL/ERN KY. FURTHER WEST...WELL ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE LINE
OVER THE MS RIVER VALLEY /WW 54/ WILL MOVE EWD FROM 35-45 KTS
THROUGH REMAINDER OF WW 54 OVER THE 1-2 HOURS. GIVEN THE NEGATIVE
TILT TO THE APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH ENHANCING MID LEVEL COLD
ADVECTION...FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT SURFACE CONDITIONS OF
AROUND 57/54 WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR SURFACE BASED THUNDERSTORMS AND
MUCAPES AROUND 750 J/KG. GIVEN STRONG PRESSURE FALLS IN WRN KY/SWRN
IND ENHANCING CONVERGENCE AHEAD OF CONVECTIVE LINE...A CONTINUED
FORWARD PROGRESS AND SEVERE THREAT IS VERY POSSIBLE WELL BEYOND 03Z.
THUS A NEW WW MAY BE NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF WRN AND CENTRAL KY/SRN
IND...SWRN OH AND WRN/MIDDLE TN BEFORE THEN. DESPITE LINEAR
STRUCTURE TO CONVECTIVE LINE...BACKED/STRONG LOW LEVEL FLOW AS
EVIDENT BY THE PAH VWP /0-1 KM SRH AROUND 500 M2/S2/...WILL SUPPORT
THREAT FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES.

..CROSBIE.. 03/10/2006

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...ILN...LMK...OHX...IND...PAH...ILX...MEG...

39088417 39698466 38798836 37818925 36258959 35939009
35609018 35468872 35848762 36218646 

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