[MCD] SWOMCD

Fri Mar 31 01:46:24 UTC 2006

ACUS11 KWNS 310148
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 310148 
ARZ000-MOZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-TXZ000-310345-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0370
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0748 PM CST THU MAR 30 2006

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN/SRN OK...NWRN AR...NCENTRAL/NERN TX

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 112...

VALID 310148Z - 310345Z

SVR TSTMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS MUCH OF WW 112 THROUGH THE NEXT
SEVERAL HRS. MAIN SVR THREATS WILL BE CONCENTRATED OVER ECENTRAL
OK/NWRN AR...AND ALONG THE RED RIVER VALLEY OF SRN OK/NRN TX. MAIN
SVR THREAT SHOULD BE LARGE HAIL...WITH ISOLATED TORNADOES POSSIBLE.

PERSISTENT SUPERCELL TSTM OVER HASKELL COUNTY WILL MOVE EWD AROUND
30 KTS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF WW 112 /NWRN AR/ THROUGH 04Z. STG
LOW LEVEL SHEAR WILL AID IN THE POTENTIAL FOR AN ISOLATED TORNADO OR
TWO. RECENT OBS OVER WRN/CENTRAL AR INDICATE MUCH LESS INSTABILITY.
GIVEN CURRENT STORM/CLUSTER MOTION...THIS CONVECTIVE CLUSTER MAY
OUTRUN MAIN INSTABILITY AXIS AND BEGIN TO WEAKEN AFTER 04Z.
CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED AND AREAS EAST OF WW 112 IN
WRN/CENTRAL AR MAY NEED AN ADDITIONAL WW BEFORE 06Z. FURTHER
SOUTH...CONVECTIVE CLUSTER OVER THE RED RIVER VALLEY WILL CONTINUE
TO MAINTAIN A SVR HAIL/WIND THREAT AS STRONG LOW LEVEL JET SUPPORT
STG INFLOW. AGAIN STG LOW LEVEL SHEAR MAY SUPPORT AN ISOLATED
TORNADO WITH THIS ACTIVITY OVER THE NEXT FEW HRS. 

FINALLY...THE CONVECTIVE LINE ORIENTED ALONG THE COLD FRONT OVER
SERN KS/NERN OK WILL POSE A THREAT FOR ISOLATED LARGE HAIL/DMGG
WINDS. UNIDIRECTIONAL SHEAR PROFILES AND LINEAR NATURE SUGGEST A
LIMITED TORNADO THREAT AHEAD OF THIS ACTIVITY.

..CROSBIE.. 03/31/2006

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LZK...SGF...SHV...TSA...ICT...FWD...OUN...

37519551 36839639 35729646 34899643 34349693 33869776
33329817 32939709 32989537 33729522 34789453 35759363
36489350 36499454 37009480 37219496 

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