From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Mar 7 16:49:37 2006 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Tue, 07 Mar 2006 11:49:37 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <20060307165217.9A635D42E0@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 071624 SWOMCD SPC MCD 071623 MOZ000-IAZ000-MNZ000-KSZ000-NEZ000-SDZ000-071830- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0181 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1023 AM CST TUE MAR 07 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS W-CENTRAL/NWRN MO...WRN IA...EXTREME NERN KS...SERN SD...SWRN MN CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 071623Z - 071830Z TSTMS SHOULD INCREASE IN COVERAGE THROUGH ABOUT 18Z IN NNW-SSE ORIENTED BAND FROM SERN SD AND SWRN MN SEWD TO W-CENTRAL MO...MOVING NEWD 30-40 KT ACROSS MUCH OF WRN IA...NWRN-W-CENTRAL MO AND SWRN MN. ISOLATED HAIL NEAR SEVERE LIMITS IS POSSIBLE...HOWEVER NEITHER ORGANIZED SEVERE EVENT NOR WW ARE ANTICIPATED WITH THIS ACTIVITY. CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED PARALLEL AND VERY CLOSE TO WARM FRONTAL ZONE NEAR 700 MB. ACTIVITY APPEARS TO BE ROOTED AROUND 700 MB BASED ON EFFECTIVE INFLOW LAYERS IN MODIFIED RAOBS AND RUC FCST SOUNDINGS. PARCELS ISENTROPICALLY RAISED LIFTED TO LFC AND SATURATION...BENEATH 7.5 DEG C/KM MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES...SUPPORT ELEVATED MUCAPES 500-800 J/KG. EFFECTIVE SHEARS 30-40 KT ARE EVIDENT WHEN USING ELEVATED LIFTED PARCELS CORRESPONDING TO LAYERS THAT INCLUDE 700 MB LEVEL. ALTHOUGH VERY LARGE/DAMAGING HAIL IS NOT LIKELY GIVEN LIMITED BUOYANCY AND MRGL EFFECTIVE SHEAR...RELATIVELY DRY SUBCONVECTIVE LAYER ATOP COOL/STABLE SFC AIR MASS MAY INHIBIT SUBCLOUD MELTING AND THUS AID HAIL SURVIVAL TO SFC. ..EDWARDS.. 03/07/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MPX...SGF...DMX...EAX...FSD...OAX...TOP... 37879455 38569477 39999542 42209633 43659719 44029719 44399686 44429623 44379573 44199525 43669464 43139399 41989358 40529309 39129307 38279330 37959423  From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Mar 7 23:17:10 2006 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Tue, 07 Mar 2006 18:17:10 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <20060307231947.EC8C6D45E5@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 072317 SWOMCD SPC MCD 072316 ILZ000-MOZ000-IAZ000-KSZ000-080115- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0182 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0516 PM CST TUE MAR 07 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...NRN THRU W CNTRL MO/NE KS CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 072316Z - 080115Z NEW CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP/INCREASE EARLY THIS EVENING. TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED FOR BROADER SCALE SEVERE POTENTIAL...AND POSSIBILITY OF A WW. MOST VIGOROUS CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT REMAINS FOCUSED IN ZONE OF STRONGER MID-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION NOW SPREADING ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHEAST IOWA/NORTHEAST MISSOURI TOWARD WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS. THIS IS OCCURRING AHEAD OF MID-LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH...WHICH WILL CONTINUE EASTWARD INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THIS EVENING. WITHIN NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS...PRIMARY NEW CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT SEEMS LIKELY TO DEVELOP IN BASE OF UPPER TROUGH...TO THE WEST SOUTHWEST OF ONGOING ACTIVITY...ACROSS AREA NEAR/SOUTH THROUGH SOUTHWEST OF KIRKSVILLE. BASE OF ACTIVITY MAY LOWER CLOSER TO 850 MB THAN 700 MB...BUT SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE SHARP FRONTAL INVERSION. HOWEVER...SLIGHTLY GREATER MOST UNSTABLE CAPE...ON THE ORDER OF 1000 J/KG...WILL SUPPORT INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL. MID-LEVEL COOLING IN WAKE OF UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY IMPULSE...AND ONSET OF INCREASING LOWER MID/TROPOSPHERIC IN CREST OF SHORT WAVE RIDGING BUILDING THROUGH THE SOUTH CENTRAL PLAINS... ARE EVENTUALLY EXPECTED TO SUPPORT INCREASING THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY BACK TOWARD THE KANSAS CITY MO/TOPEKA KS AREA. THIS APPEARS POSSIBLE AS EARLY AS 03Z...MORE LIKELY THEREAFTER. ..KERR.. 03/07/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...ILX...LSX...DVN...DMX...EAX...TOP... 40679336 41109198 40799072 39509062 38929096 38809276 38569432 38629550 38969562 39409570 39699482 40219432  From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Mar 7 23:50:16 2006 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Tue, 07 Mar 2006 18:50:16 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <20060307235248.48CB8D4565@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 072349 SWOMCD SPC MCD 072349 OKZ000-KSZ000-080115- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0183 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0549 PM CST TUE MAR 07 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...N CNTRL OK INTO PARTS OF S CNTRL/SE KS CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 072349Z - 080115Z TRENDS CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED FOR POSSIBILITY OF INCREASING SEVERE THREAT AND POTENTIAL FOR A WW. SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS ALREADY LIFTING AWAY FROM THE SOUTH CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...WITH BROAD MID/UPPER SHORT WAVE RIDGE BUILDING THROUGH THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS. THUS...CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY EXISTS CONCERNING CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL ALONG/AHEAD OF DRY LINE IN WARM SECTOR ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA/SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. HOWEVER...NARROW AXIS OF MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER CAPE ON THE ORDER OF 1000 TO 1500 J/KG EXISTS...AND WEAK LOWER/MID TROPOSPHERIC COOLING IS ONGOING IN WAKE OF UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY SHORT WAVE TROUGH. THIS COULD WEAKEN INHIBITION SUFFICIENTLY FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT BY 02-03Z. HIGHEST PROBABILITY OF OCCURRENCE SEEMS TO BE NEAR OR TO THE SOUTH/EAST OF WICHITA...WHERE DEEP LAYER SHEAR PROFILES BENEATH MODERATELY STRONG WESTERLY MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR ISOLATED SUPERCELLS. A TORNADO IS POSSIBLE...BUT PRIMARY RISK SEEMS TO BE LARGE HAIL. ..KERR.. 03/07/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...TSA...TOP...ICT...OUN... 37559754 38339677 38749598 38289507 37029522 36489562 36369665 36579757  From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Mar 8 00:12:10 2006 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Tue, 07 Mar 2006 19:12:10 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <20060308001440.D75CBD45E5@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 080010 SWOMCD SPC MCD 080010 TXZ000-080115- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0184 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0610 PM CST TUE MAR 07 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF SW TX CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 080010Z - 080115Z TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED...BUT NEED FOR A WW DOES NOT APPEAR LIKELY AT THE PRESENT TIME. ISOLATED SEVERE STORM HAS RECENTLY DEVELOPED ALONG DRY LINE NEAR THE FORT STOCKTON AREA. LARGE-SCALE FORCING APPEARS GENERALLY WEAK... BUT FAVORABLE OROGRAPHY AND WEAKENED INHIBITION IN PEAK HEATING HAVE APPARENTLY BEEN ENOUGH TO SUPPORT ACTIVITY. WITHIN NEXT HOUR OR SO...INHIBITION SHOULD BEGIN TO INCREASE WITH ONSET OF SURFACE COOLING. DIFLUENT UPPER FLOW REGIME AND STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL JET COULD OFFSET THIS MITIGATING FACTOR...MAINTAINING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT INTO THE 02-03Z TIME FRAME. HOWEVER...THIS ACTIVITY SEEMS LIKELY TO REMAIN RATHER ISOLATED. ..KERR.. 03/08/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...EWX...SJT...MAF... 31140263 31490195 30820130 30350158 30140205 30100251  From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Mar 8 03:23:04 2006 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Tue, 07 Mar 2006 22:23:04 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <20060308032533.078C3D4968@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 080323 SWOMCD SPC MCD 080323 MOZ000-KSZ000-080530- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0185 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0923 PM CST TUE MAR 07 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...NE KS INTO NRN MO CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 38... VALID 080323Z - 080530Z CONTINUE WW 38. TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED FOR POSSIBILITY OF ADDITIONAL WW TO THE EAST OF THE KANSAS CITY METRO AREA. INCREASE IN CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IS NOW ONGOING NEAR THE TOPEKA/ ST. JOSEPH/KANSAS CITY AREAS...WHERE LOWER/MID TROPOSPHERIC WARM ADVECTION APPEARS TO BE MAXIMIZED ON NORTHEAST PERIPHERY OF UPPER RIDGE...IN WAKE OF UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY SHORT WAVE TROUGH. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE/INTENSITY NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...AIDED BY MOIST INFLOW ASSOCIATED WITH STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL JET. SHEAR PROFILES ARE SUFFICIENT FOR UPDRAFT ROTATION ...WHICH WILL ENHANCE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL IN STRONGER CELLS WHICH WILL BE BASED ABOVE NEAR SURFACE FRONTAL INVERSION ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS WILL EVENTUALLY DEVELOP THROUGH 06Z AND BEYOND...IN LOW-LEVEL CONFLUENT REGIME DOWNSTREAM...BECOMING QUASI STATIONARY NEAR THE INTERSTATE 70 CORRIDOR ACROSS MISSOURI. DESTABILIZATION COULD BECOME SUFFICIENT FOR MARGINAL SEVERE HAIL THREAT. OTHERWISE...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IN TRAINING CONVECTION COULD EVENTUALLY BECOME A PROBLEM. ..KERR.. 03/08/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LSX...SGF...EAX...TOP...ICT... 38979661 39479597 39779480 40039302 39839170 39219103 38829105 38599157 38469321 38019530 38259647  From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Mar 8 03:49:49 2006 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Tue, 07 Mar 2006 22:49:49 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <20060308035220.2176ED4A80@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 080349 SWOMCD SPC MCD 080348 MOZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-080515- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0186 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0948 PM CST TUE MAR 07 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...NRN OK/SRN KS/SW MO CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 38... VALID 080348Z - 080515Z SUPPRESSION OF CONVECTIVE INHIBITION...ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK MID-LEVEL COOLING IN WAKE OF UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY SHORT WAVE TROUGH...HAS BEEN SUFFICIENT FOR VIGOROUS CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT PAST FEW HOURS ACROSS NORTHWEST/NORTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA. INFLUENCE OF UPPER JET STREAK TOPPING CREST OF SHORT WAVE RIDGE IS UNCERTAIN...BUT STRONGER FORCING APPEARS LIKELY TO CONTINUE SHIFTING EAST NORTHEASTWARD ALONG SOUTHERN FRINGE OF WW 38...EAST OF THE PONCA CITY AREA BY 06Z...AND EAST OF BARTLESVILLE INTO THE JOPLIN AREA BY 09Z. VEERING SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL JET WILL MAINTAIN INFLOW OF MOIST...POTENTIALLY UNSTABLE AIR...IN ENVIRONMENT WITH SHEAR SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS. ONGOING ACTIVITY MAY BE BASED NEAR THE SURFACE...BUT SHOULD BECOME MORE ELEVATED WITH LARGE HAIL PRIMARY THREAT NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. ..KERR.. 03/08/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...SGF...TSA...ICT...OUN... 36579813 37179745 37559636 37799510 37249452 36769483 36549553 36229616 36079699 36069808  From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Mar 8 15:33:47 2006 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Wed, 08 Mar 2006 10:33:47 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <20060308153615.D07C3D4565@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 081532 SWOMCD SPC MCD 081532 ARZ000-LAZ000-TXZ000-OKZ000-081630- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0187 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0932 AM CST WED MAR 08 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS SERN OK...N-CENTRAL/NERN TX...W-CENTRAL/SWRN AR...EXTREME NWRN LA CONCERNING...OUTLOOK UPGRADE VALID 081532Z - 081630Z 1630Z DAY-1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK WILL BE UPGRADED TO CATEGORICAL MDT RISK FOR SVR TSTMS LATE TONIGHT ACROSS ARKLATEX REGION -- MAINLY AFTER 09/06Z. POTENTIAL IS INCREASING FOR DAMAGING WIND AND SIGNIFICANT TORNADOES DURING OVERNIGHT HOURS ALONG/AHEAD OF SFC FRONT ACROSS OUTLINED REGION. THIS WILL CARRY OVER AND EXPAND GEOGRAPHICALLY INTO 1730Z DAY-2 OUTLOOK...WHICH ALSO WILL BE UPGRADED TO MDT RISK FROM THIS AREA NEWD THRU SEWD ACROSS LOWER MS VALLEY REGION. MORE DETAILS ARE FORTHCOMING IN SPC DAY-1 AND DAY-2 OUTLOOK PRODUCTS. ..EDWARDS.. 03/08/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LZK...SHV...TSA...FWD...OUN... 33259346 32839373 32279436 31889515 31869564 32039613 32329652 32649659 33269652 34509582 35349479 35459397 35259340 34889316 34299309  From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Mar 8 17:42:13 2006 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Wed, 08 Mar 2006 12:42:13 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <20060308174440.9ACEBD46C1@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 081741 SWOMCD SPC MCD 081741 MOZ000-IAZ000-KSZ000-NEZ000-082015- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0188 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1141 AM CST WED MAR 08 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS NERN KS...NWRN MO CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 081741Z - 082015Z POTENTIAL FOR SFC-BASED SVR TSTM DEVELOPMENT WILL INCREASE DURING NEXT 2-3 HOURS ACROSS NERN KS/NWRN MO. AREA IS BEING MONITORED FOR POSSIBLE WW. SFC MESOANALYSES OVER PAST FEW HOURS SHOW WARM FRONT LIFTING NEWD ACROSS ERN KS AND WRN MO...E THRU ESE SFC LOW. AT 17Z...SHARPLY DEFINED WARM FRONT WAS ANALYZED FROM SFC LOW NEAR MHK...ESEWD ACROSS WRN/SRN PORTIONS KC METRO AREA...THEN CURVING SWD OVER WRN OZARKS REGION. EXPECT SFC CYCLONE TO DEEPEN SOMEWHAT MORE AND MOVE NEWD TOWARD STJ REGION THROUGH MID-LATE AFTERNOON...WHILE WARM FRONT LIFTS NWD OVER MO VALLEY BETWEEN FNB-MCI. DRYLINE -- ANALYZED AT 17Z FROM POTTAWATOMIE COUNTY KS SWWD TO BETWEEN END-PNC -- SHOULD MOVE EWD IN STEP WITH OR JUST AHEAD OF SFC LOW...AND WILL FORM WRN BOUND FOR SEVERE THREAT. AIR MASS ALONG AND S OF WARM FRONT...AND E OF DRYLINE...IS BECOMING FAVORABLY UNSTABLE...WITH VIS IMAGERY AND OBS SHOWING CLEARING S OF WARM FRONT. CINH WEAKENS RAPIDLY AS SFC TEMPS HEAT INTO MID 70S WITH 55-60 DEG F DEW POINTS...PER MODIFIED RAOBS AND RUC/ETA SOUNDINGS. THIS MAY FOSTER DEVELOPMENT WITHIN NEXT 2-3 HOURS...ESPECIALLY CONSIDERING ENHANCEMENT OF CONVERGENCE ALONG DRYLINE/WARM FRONT NEAR DEEPENING LOW. VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES WILL REMAIN MAXIMIZED INVOF THIS FRONT AS WELL...PER LATEST VWP/PROFILER TRENDS. ALONG WARM FRONT AND E OF SFC LOW...MLCAPES 1000-1500 J/KG ARE POSSIBLE WITH 0-1 KM SRH 200-300 J/KG AND EFFECTIVE BULK SHEARS NEAR 60 KT...SUPPORTING SUPERCELL POTENTIAL IN ANY TSTMS THAT DEVELOP. ..EDWARDS.. 03/08/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...DMX...EAX...OAX...TOP... 38499508 38539633 39749563 40329507 40609452 40229339 39439280 38769303  From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Mar 8 18:25:38 2006 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Wed, 08 Mar 2006 13:25:38 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <20060308182823.3B76AD46C1@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 081825 SWOMCD SPC MCD 081825 KYZ000-MOZ000-TNZ000-ARZ000-OKZ000-082030- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0189 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1225 PM CST WED MAR 08 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS SERN OK...WRN/NRN AR...EXTREME SERN MO CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 081825Z - 082030Z TSTM COVERAGE/INTENSITY MAY INCREASE THROUGH MID-AFTERNOON ACROSS PORTIONS NRN/WRN AR...WITH ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT MOVING NEWD FROM SERN OK. MAIN THREAT THROUGH 21Z SHOULD BE HAIL. EXISTING ACTIVITY OVER NERN AR SHOULD MOVE ACROSS PORTIONS SERN MO AND MAY PRODUCE HAIL NEAR SEVERE LEVELS BEFORE WEAKENING. MODIFIED RAOBS AND RUC SOUNDINGS INDICATE ELEVATED MUCAPES 1000-1500 J/KG ACROSS THIS REGION...SUPPORTED BY STRONG WAA IN 800-850 MB LAYER WHERE ACTIVITY IS ROOTED ATTM. 50-70 KT MIDLEVEL WINDS WILL ENHANCE SHEAR THROUGH CAPE BEARING LAYER...SUPPORTING POTENTIAL FOR FURTHER ORGANIZATION AND HAIL PRODUCTION. ALTHOUGH SFC HEATING WILL BE SLOW OVER THIS REGION BECAUSE OF THICK CLOUD COVER...COMBINATION OF GRADUAL DIABATIC WARMING AND SFC WAA MAY RESULT IN EFFECTIVE LIFTED LAYER EXTENDING DOWN TO SFC ONCE TEMPS REACH MID 70S F...MOST PROBABLE FROM ABOUT 21Z ONWARD. WEAK BAROCLINIC BOUNDARY MAY DEVELOP FROM SERN OK ENEWD ACROSS CENTRAL AR IN RESPONSE TO DIFFERENTIAL HEATING S OF MAIN PRECIP AREA. ALTHOUGH MODELS INDICATE CAPPING WILL BE MAINTAINED FOR SFC PARCELS...SUCH HEATING AND POTENTIAL LIFT COULD INTRODUCE SOME SFC-BASED SUPERCELL POTENTIAL BY MID-LATE AFTERNOON...A SITUATION THAT WILL WARRANT ADDITIONAL MONITORING. ..EDWARDS.. 03/08/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...PAH...MEG...LZK...SGF...SHV...TSA... 34859238 34209526 35909425 36449144 37308958 36428952 35299081 34999182  From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Mar 8 18:33:50 2006 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Wed, 08 Mar 2006 13:33:50 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <20060308183624.6CEC8D46B5@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 081835 SWOMCD SPC MCD 081834 COZ000-WYZ000-082230- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0190 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1234 PM CST WED MAR 08 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...NERN CO CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW VALID 081834Z - 082230Z SNOW RATES ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE BY 21Z WITH UP TO 2 IN/HR RATES IN UPSLOPE AREAS ALONG FRONT RANGE. WEAK SURFACE COLD ADVECTION WILL INTENSIFY OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS AS WINDS BACK AND INCREASE TO AROUND 20 KT IN RESPONSE TO DEEPENING PRESSURES TO THE SOUTH. JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE...WARM ADVECTION WILL BE MAINTAINED WHICH WILL KEEP PROFILES SATURATED WITH MOISTURE ADVECTION FROM THE EAST. TEMPERATURE PROFILES WILL MANAGE TO COOL DESPITE THIS WEAK WARM ADVECTION AS UPPER SYSTEM DEEPENS. GIVEN SEVERAL HOURS OF SATURATED AND COOLING PROFILES ALONG WITH UPSLOPE FLOW...2-4 HOURS OF HEAVY SNOW ARE LIKELY. ..JEWELL.. 03/08/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...PUB...BOU...CYS... 40940582 41130561 41080521 41020490 40880473 40660466 40500468 40150465 39920456 39680446 39480436 38880481 38820507 38970537 39860584 40530583  From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Mar 8 19:53:58 2006 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Wed, 08 Mar 2006 14:53:58 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <20060308195631.8DD09D46C1@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 081954 SWOMCD SPC MCD 081953 OKZ000-TXZ000-082200- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0191 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0153 PM CST WED MAR 08 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...W CENTRAL TX INTO SWRN OK CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 081953Z - 082200Z WE ARE MONITORING THE DRYLINE FOR POSSIBLE CONVECTIVE INITIATION THIS AFTERNOON. A WW COULD BE REQUIRED. SURFACE DEWPOINTS HAVE MIXED OUT MAINLY INTO THE UPPER 50S E OF THE DRYLINE. 18Z FWD SOUNDING SHOWS A RELATIVELY DEEP AND MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER WITH MEAN MIXING RATIOS NEAR 10.5 G/KG AND 850 DEWPOINT OF 11.9 C...HOWEVER CAPPED. WARMER TEMPERATURES EXIST FARTHER WEST WITH LITTLE SURFACE BASED AND MIXED LAYER CIN REMAINING. AN EXPANSIVE CIRRUS SHIELD HAS FORMED IN ADVANCE OF UPPER TROUGH...WHICH WILL LIMIT HEATING FOR THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...TEMPERATURES ALOFT CONTINUE TO COOL WITH A STRONG TEMPERATURE GRADIENT FROM THE MCD AREA NWWD. IN ADDITION...AREA WIND PROFILERS INDICATE LOW LEVEL WINDS / 850 MB / BEGINNING TO BACK WHICH WILL HELP TRANSPORT RICHER MOISTURE NWWD BENEATH INCREASINGLY STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. LATEST 18Z NAM AS WELL AS 18Z RUC MODELS BOTH PRODUCE PRECIPITATION OVER SWRN OK INTO NWRN TX BETWEEN 21-00Z. GIVEN STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR VECTORS AS WELL AS INCREASING HELICITY LATE...SUPERCELLS WILL BE LIKELY WITH VERY LARGE HAIL. TORNADO THREAT WOULD INCREASE LATER IN THE EVENING WITH INCREASING LOW LEVEL JET AND CONTINUED STEEPENING OF LAPSE RATES ALOFT WITH ENHANCED LOW LEVEL BUOYANCY/ACCELERATION. ..JEWELL.. 03/08/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...SJT... 35109698 34489721 32209849 31839903 31229984 31100023 31630057 32619999 33629904 34759841 35039824 35519749  From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Mar 8 21:12:29 2006 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Wed, 08 Mar 2006 16:12:29 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <20060308211457.BEBF5D45A2@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 082111 SWOMCD SPC MCD 082111 MOZ000-KSZ000-OKZ000-082245- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0192 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0311 PM CST WED MAR 08 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS ERN KS...W-CENTRAL/NWRN MO CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 39... VALID 082111Z - 082245Z SEVERAL DEEP CONVECTIVE TOWERS ARE EVIDENT IN VIS IMAGERY ALONG AND JUST N OF SFC WARM FRONT AS IT LIFTS SLOWLY NWD ACROSS STJ AREA...AND ADJACENT PORTIONS EXTREME NERN KS AND NWRN MO. FOR GREATEST TORNADO POTENTIAL...ACTIVITY MUST REMAIN IN WARM FRONTAL ZONE LONG ENOUGH TO MATURE WITH SFC-BASED INFLOW...WITHOUT MOVING TOO FAR OVER PROGRESSIVELY COOLER/MORE STABLE AIRMASS NEAR IA/MO LINE. SFC MESOANALYSIS SHOWS LOW CONTINUING TO DEEPEN AS IT MOVES NEWD ACROSS AREA BETWEEN MHK-TOP-FNB. DRYLINE INTERSECTS WARM FRONT JUST E OF SFC LOW BETWEEN TOP-STJ AS OF 21Z...AND MAY MOVE EWD AS FAR AS MO RIVER IN NEXT 1- 2HOURS. MODIFIED FCST SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SHOW WEAK CINH -- 25 J/KG OR LESS -- FOR 100 MB DEEP MEAN-MIXED LAYER ASCENT...MAINLY NEAR AND N OF I-70. DEEP-LAYER SHEAR PROFILES ARE FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS ON BOTH SIDES OF WARM FRONT...BUT WITH MORE STRONGLY CURVED HODOGRAPHS NEAR AND JUST N OF FRONT WHERE FLOW IS BACKED AT SFC. SVR TSTM DEVELOPMENT REMAINS POSSIBLE ALONG DRYLINE OVER WRN PORTION OF WW...HOWEVER PROBABILITIES MAY BE DIMINISHING WITH COVERAGE OF DEVELOPMENT LIMITED S OF WARM FRONT. STRONGEST PRESSURE FALLS IN THIS REGION SHOULD REMAIN ALONG AND N OF SFC WARM FRONT HELPING TO MAINTAIN BACKED FLOW AND FAVORABLE SHEAR THERE BUT KEEPING FLOW SOMEWHAT VEERED AND REDUCING DRYLINE CONVERGENCE FARTHER S. IN ADDITION...THICKENING AND INCREASE IN COVERAGE OF HIGH CLOUDS FROM SW IS SLOWING DIABATIC HEATING AND MAY ALSO BE RESTRICTING SOLENOIDAL ASCENT INVOF DRYLINE. W EDGE OF HIGH CLOUD DECK SHOULD NOT MOVE E OF WW UNTIL AFTER DARK...THEREFORE SFC TEMPS IN MOIST SECTOR MAY BE PEAKING. ..EDWARDS.. 03/08/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...SGF...EAX...TSA...TOP...ICT... 36999433 36979628 38109559 39189509 39669524 40029525 40189417 40099301 39299318  From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Mar 8 22:11:40 2006 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Wed, 08 Mar 2006 17:11:40 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <20060308221422.1CC03D45A2@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 082211 SWOMCD SPC MCD 082210 ARZ000-MOZ000-OKZ000-082245- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0193 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0410 PM CST WED MAR 08 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF CENTRAL INTO NE OK CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 082210Z - 082245Z WW WILL BE ISSUED SOON FOR PARTS OF CENTRAL INTO NE OK. THUNDERSTORMS ARE DEVELOPING RAPIDLY ACROSS CENTRAL OK FROM OKLAHOMA COUNTY TO PAYNE COUNTY. THESE STORMS ARE DEVELOPING ALONG A DRY LINE THAT HAS BEEN RETREATING TOWARD THE NNW AS LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE RETURNS ACROSS OK...WITH MUCAPE RANGING FROM 1000-2000 J/KG. DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS MORE THAN SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS. ..PETERS.. 03/08/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...SGF...TSA...OUN... 35249750 35999719 36929657 36959453 35319479 35029647  From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Mar 8 23:20:33 2006 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Wed, 08 Mar 2006 18:20:33 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <20060308232302.60327D46C1@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 082320 SWOMCD SPC MCD 082320 OKZ000-TXZ000-082345- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0194 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0520 PM CST WED MAR 08 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF SW THROUGH NORTH CENTRAL TX TO SRN OK CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 082320Z - 082345Z WW WILL BE ISSUED SOON FOR SRN OK INTO PARTS OF NORTH CENTRAL TX. ANOTHER WW MAY BE REQUIRED FARTHER TO THE SW OVER PARTS OF CENTRAL INTO SW TX THIS EVENING. DESPITE EXPANSIVE SHIELD OF HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS STREAMING NEWD ACROSS MUCH OF SW/WRN TX TO OK AND ERN KS...LOW-LEVEL WINDS BACKING WITH THE APPROACH OF THE UPSTREAM TROUGH HAS RESULTED IN DRY LINE RETREATING TO THE NW THIS AFTERNOON. SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE MID-UPPER 70S COMBINED WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60 HAS RESULTED IN MUCAPE 1500-2500 J/KG. THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP SLOWLY ALONG THE DRY LINE...WITH GREATER TSTM COVERAGE EXPECTED AFTER 00-03Z AS STRONGER ASCENT WITH THE UPSTREAM TROUGH SPREADS EWD ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS THIS EVENING. ..PETERS.. 03/08/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...SJT... 31370093 32300005 32919962 34049896 35129824 35089619 34029625 32079786 30969904 30409996 30380056 30920119  From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu Mar 9 01:03:50 2006 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Wed, 08 Mar 2006 20:03:50 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <20060309010625.AC233D45A2@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 090104 SWOMCD SPC MCD 090104 MOZ000-KSZ000-OKZ000-090200- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0195 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0704 PM CST WED MAR 08 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...SERN KS / PARTS OF WRN INTO NRN MO CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 39... VALID 090104Z - 090200Z TORNADO WATCH 39 WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AS SCHEDULED AT 09/02Z. 00Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED A SURFACE LOW OVER NWRN MO TO THE ENE OF STJ. A DRY LINE EXTENDED SSWWD INTO SERN KS TO CENTRAL OK...WHILE A COLD FRONT TRAILED SWWD TO THE WEST OF THE DRY LINE INTO SOUTH CENTRAL KS TO THE OK PANHANDLE. REGIONAL RADARS INDICATED STORMS OVER NERN PART OF WW 39 /NORTH CENTRAL MO/ WEAKENING...WHILE THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOPED ALONG DRY LINE OVER SERN KS SINCE 23Z HAVE NOT BECOME SIGNIFICANTLY INTENSE... WITH ONLY PEA SIZE HAIL REPORTED THUS FAR. PRIND SUGGEST ERN KS/MO MAY BE LOCATED BENEATH WEAK SHORT WAVE RIDGING BETWEEN SHORT WAVE TROUGH LIFTING NEWD ACROSS MID MO VALLEY AND UPSTREAM TROUGH APPROACHING SRN PLAINS. IN ADDITION TO MID LEVEL RIDGING... OBJECTIVE ANALYSES INDICATED BOUNDARY LAYER ACROSS SERN KS AND MO BEGINNING TO STABILIZE WITH A WEAK CAP EVIDENT ON 00Z SOUNDING AT SGF. ALTHOUGH DEEP LAYER SHEAR REMAINS STRONG FOR ORGANIZED STORMS...STRONGEST...THOUGH ISOLATED...ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN FOCUSED ALONG THE DRY LINE AND/OR APPROACHING COLD FRONT AS THE SURFACE LOW TRACKS NEWD TOWARD SERN IA. ..PETERS.. 03/09/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LSX...SGF...EAX...TSA...TOP...ICT... 37019667 38769453 40119403 40029186 36869323  From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu Mar 9 01:47:15 2006 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Wed, 08 Mar 2006 20:47:15 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <20060309014940.22438D4565@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 090147 SWOMCD SPC MCD 090146 ILZ000-WIZ000-IAZ000-090315- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0196 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0746 PM CST WED MAR 08 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...SERN IA...NRN IL AND FAR SERN WI. CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 41... VALID 090146Z - 090315Z STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS ARE ANTICIPATED TO CONTINUE IN THE NERN PORTION OF WW 41 AND TO THE E. AN ADDITIONAL WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED DOWNSTREAM AT THIS TIME. SEVERAL ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE ALONG THE I-80 CORRIDOR IN CNTRL/ERN IA INTO FAR NW IL. THE STORMS HAVE FORMED ALONG AN AXIS OF MAXIMUM 850 MB WARM THETA-E ADVECTION. RUC AND 18Z NAM WRF GUIDANCE INDICATE THIS AXIS WILL MOVE NWD INTO SRN WI/LK MI THIS EVENING AS A LOW-LEVEL DRY PUNCH MOVES NEWD FROM NW MO AS EVIDENCED BY 00Z TOP SOUNDING. ALTHOUGH DEEP LAYER SPEED SHEAR IS QUITE SUPPORTIVE OF ELEVATED SUPERCELLS...MUCAPES ARE LOW FROM AROUND 250-500 J/KG ACROSS NWRN IL FROM 00Z DVN SOUNDING. THIS SHOULD SUPPORT A THREAT FOR STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL. ..GRAMS.. 03/09/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LOT...ILX...MKX...DVN...DMX... 41659366 42089238 42429052 42888782 41538824 41019012 40619232  From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu Mar 9 02:22:10 2006 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Wed, 08 Mar 2006 21:22:10 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <20060309022439.4AE40D4A94@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 090222 SWOMCD SPC MCD 090222 ARZ000-MOZ000-OKZ000-TXZ000-090315- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0197 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0822 PM CST WED MAR 08 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...OK/NRN TX CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 40...42... VALID 090222Z - 090315Z WW 40 WILL BE REPLACED WITH A NEW WATCH EXTENDING WWD TO INCLUDE MORE OF NORTH CENTRAL OK. WW 42 REMAINS VALID THROUGH 06Z. ONGOING THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS ERN/SERN OK INTO NORTH CENTRAL TX SHOULD POSE A LIMITED SEVERE THREAT DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN PRIMARILY ELEVATED. 02Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED THE COLD FRONT EXTENDED FROM SERN KS SWWD INTO NWRN OK...WHILE THE DRY LINE EXTENDED SWD ACROSS CENTRAL OK INTO PARTS OF NWRN-WEST CENTRAL TX. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED AN AREA OF LARGE SCALE ASCENT /MID LEVEL CLOUDS/ SPREADING EWD ACROSS WRN TX INTO WRN OK SUGGESTING NEW THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOP BETWEEN 03-06Z ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL OK INTO PARTS OF NRN TX. ..PETERS.. 03/09/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...SGF...TSA...FWD...OUN...SJT... 32179964 35409897 36989864 36929432 35289527 32949689 31959816  From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu Mar 9 03:57:13 2006 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Wed, 08 Mar 2006 22:57:13 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <20060309040004.91926D46C1@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 090356 SWOMCD SPC MCD 090356 MOZ000-KSZ000-OKZ000-090500- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0198 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0956 PM CST WED MAR 08 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...SERN KS/SWRN MO CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 090356Z - 090500Z HAIL THREAT EXPECTED TO INCREASE...BUT SHOULD REMAIN PRIMARILY ISOLATED THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS /UNTIL 06-07Z/. GREATEST THREAT AREA SHOULD BE ACROSS SERN KS AND POTENTIALLY DEVELOPING INTO SWRN MO. REGIONAL RADARS SHOWED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED SINCE 0245Z OVER SERN KS FROM COWLEY TO ALLEN COUNTIES. THIS ACTIVITY IS LOCATED NORTH OF THE COLD FRONT...AND THUS IS MOST LIKELY ROOTED ABOVE THE SURFACE. AIR MASS S AND E OF THE FRONT HAS REMAINED MARGINALLY UNSTABLE WITH MLCAPE VALUES UP TO 1000 J/KG. 50 KT SSWLY LLJ EXTENDING INTO SERN KS IS PROVIDING MOIST/UNSTABLE INFLOW INTO THIS ELEVATED ACTIVITY...WITH ADDITIONAL ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES SEWD INTO THE INSTABILITY AXIS. ..PETERS.. 03/09/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...SGF...EAX...TSA...TOP...ICT...OUN... 38099598 38749410 38549348 37199367 36959473 36959677 37109749 37699720  From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu Mar 9 05:01:20 2006 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Thu, 09 Mar 2006 00:01:20 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <20060309050355.ADCAAD45A2@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 090503 SWOMCD SPC MCD 090502 TXZ000-090630- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0200 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1102 PM CST WED MAR 08 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...TX HILL COUNTRY/SCNTRL TX CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 090502Z - 090630Z ...A WATCH WILL BE ISSUED SHORTLY FOR THE TX HILL COUNTRY/SCNTRL TX... STRONG/SVR TSTMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF 80-90 KT JET MAX WHICH IS APPROACHING FROM THE BIG BEND. VIGOROUS LARGE SCALE ASCENT WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. STORMS APPEAR TO BE FORMING ON A CONFLUENCE AXIS...POSSIBLY NEAR 700MB JUDGING FROM VWP/SATELLITE DATA. DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BE WELL OVER 50 KT...AND AIRMASS IS MODERATELY UNSTABLE. WHILE THE SEVERE THREAT WILL TEND TO BE MORE FROM LARGE HAIL/STRONG WINDS...THERE IS A SMALL POTENTIAL FOR TORNADOES...GIVEN SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW/MID 60S AND THE VERY STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR. ..TAYLOR.. 03/09/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...HGX...FWD...CRP...EWX...SJT... 28629738 28179909 29109998 31339850 31599708 31129625 30299628 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu Mar 9 05:01:20 2006 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Thu, 09 Mar 2006 00:01:20 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <20060309050510.8492DD42E0@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 090503 SWOMCD SPC MCD 090502 TXZ000-090630- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0200 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1102 PM CST WED MAR 08 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...TX HILL COUNTRY/SCNTRL TX CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 090502Z - 090630Z ...A WATCH WILL BE ISSUED SHORTLY FOR THE TX HILL COUNTRY/SCNTRL TX... STRONG/SVR TSTMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF 80-90 KT JET MAX WHICH IS APPROACHING FROM THE BIG BEND. VIGOROUS LARGE SCALE ASCENT WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. STORMS APPEAR TO BE FORMING ON A CONFLUENCE AXIS...POSSIBLY NEAR 700MB JUDGING FROM VWP/SATELLITE DATA. DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BE WELL OVER 50 KT...AND AIRMASS IS MODERATELY UNSTABLE. WHILE THE SEVERE THREAT WILL TEND TO BE MORE FROM LARGE HAIL/STRONG WINDS...THERE IS A SMALL POTENTIAL FOR TORNADOES...GIVEN SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW/MID 60S AND THE VERY STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR. ..TAYLOR.. 03/09/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...HGX...FWD...CRP...EWX...SJT... 28629738 28179909 29109998 31339850 31599708 31129625 30299628 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu Mar 9 07:56:15 2006 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Thu, 09 Mar 2006 02:56:15 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <20060309075846.2CDB5D4565@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 090758 SWOMCD SPC MCD 090757 ARZ000-TXZ000-OKZ000-090900- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0202 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0157 AM CST THU MAR 09 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...SRN OK AND NRN TX CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 45...46...47... VALID 090757Z - 090900Z ...FAST-MOVING SQUALL LINES WILL GENERATE WIND DAMAGE... TWO WELL DEVELOPED...AND INCREASINGLY MATURE...SQUALL LINES HAVE EVOLVED ACROSS OK INTO THE RED RIVER REGION OF NORTH TX. LEAD SQUALL LINE IS EXITING NERN MOST QUADRANT OF WW45...MOVING INTO WW46-47...WHILE UPSTREAM SQUALL LINE IS GRADUALLY DEVELOPING INTO NCNTRL TX ALONG THE RED RIVER REGION. BOTH OF THESE ORGANIZING COMPLEXES ARE RACING ENEWD IN EXCESS OF 50 KT AND SHOULD EASILY GENERATE DAMAGING WINDS...AS HAVE BEEN OBSERVED ON SEVERAL MESONET LOCATIONS. OF PARTICULAR INTEREST IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SWD DEVELOPMENT ALONG ADVANCING WIND SHIFT INTO THE METROPLEX AS STRONG FORCING OVERSPREADS WARM SECTOR. ALTHOUGH ISOLATED TORNADOES REMAIN POSSIBLE...STRONG WINDS APPEAR TO BE THE GREATEST SEVERE THREATS WITH THESE SQUALL LINES. ..DARROW.. 03/09/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LZK...SHV...TSA...FWD...OUN... 34759713 35819560 35469372 33439448 33179677 33279829 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu Mar 9 11:13:10 2006 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Thu, 09 Mar 2006 06:13:10 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <20060309111536.49B29D42E0@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 091114 SWOMCD SPC MCD 091114 LAZ000-MSZ000-TXZ000-091245- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0203 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0514 AM CST THU MAR 09 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN TX AND LA CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 44... VALID 091114Z - 091245Z ...TORNADO WATCH WILL BE ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF EAST TX AND MUCH OF LA... VERY STRONG MID LEVEL SPEED MAX...90-100 KT...IS NOW APPROACHING CNTRL TX WHERE SHARPENING COLD FRONT AND INCREASING SHOWERS/TSTMS ARE OBSERVED. MOISTURE HAS GRADUALLY INCREASED ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR...ESPECIALLY OVER SERN TX TO NEAR THE SABINE RIVER. IN ADDITION...STRONG PRESSURE FALLS ARE NOTED ACROSS THIS REGION SUPPORTING THE STRENGTH OF THE UPPER TROUGH WHICH WILL EJECT ACROSS EAST TX LATER THIS MORNING. VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN CREATING HIGH END HODOGRAPHS STRONGLY SUPPORTIVE OF TORNADIC STORMS AND DAMAGING BOW ECHOES. AS THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT RESPONDS TO THIS TROUGH...SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD EMERGE THIS MORNING AND RACE NEWD TOWARD THE MS RIVER. BROAD TORNADO WATCH WILL BE ISSUED TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS FAST MOVING SYSTEM. ..DARROW.. 03/09/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...JAN...LIX...LCH...SHV...HGX...FWD... 30779575 32719461 32869151 30709123 29759211 29859517 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu Mar 9 12:09:37 2006 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Thu, 09 Mar 2006 07:09:37 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <20060309121211.CCAFED46A3@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 091211 SWOMCD SPC MCD 091210 TNZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-OKZ000-091345- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0204 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0610 AM CST THU MAR 09 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...NERN OK...NRN AR CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 46... VALID 091210Z - 091345Z ...ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN POSSIBLE...MAINLY ACROSS NRN AR... WIDESPREAD CONVECTION DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS HAS STABILIZED MUCH OF THE TORNADO WATCH REGION. OLD OUTFLOW BOUNDARY REMAINS SOMEWHAT IDENTIFIABLE IN AN E-W ORIENTATION ROUGHLY ALONG SRN PORTIONS OF THE WATCH FROM NERN AR TO NEAR FSM. HOWEVER...IT APPEARS MUCH OF THE STRONGER THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY FROM THIS POINT FORWARD WILL BE SOUTH OF THIS REGION WHERE AIRMASS IS MORE BUOYANT AHEAD OF APPROACHING SQUALL LINE. SERN MOST COUNTIES MAY NEED TO BE CONSIDERED FOR A REPLACEMENT WATCH BY 14Z. ..DARROW.. 03/09/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...PAH...MEG...LSX...LZK...SGF...TSA... 36139528 37119347 37169029 35638956 34789338 34869538 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu Mar 9 16:33:11 2006 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Thu, 09 Mar 2006 11:33:11 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <20060309163557.13F41D46B5@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 091634 SWOMCD SPC MCD 091634 MOZ000-ARZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-091830- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0206 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1034 AM CST THU MAR 09 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...FAR ERN OK/WRN AR AND SWRN MO CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 091634Z - 091830Z SCT THUNDERSTORMS ARE ANTICIPATED TO DEVELOP BEGINNING BY 18Z OVER PORTIONS OF FAR ERN OK...WRN AR AND SWRN MO. ISOLATED SVR HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS THIS AFTERNOON. AREA WILL CONTINUED TO BE MONITORED FOR A SVR WW. LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS CLEARING CONTINUES TO DEVELOP IN THE WAKE OF CONVECTIVE LINE LOCATED OVER CENTRAL/ERN AR AND SERN MO...AND AHEAD OF UPPER LOW/COLD FRONT LOCATED OVER CENTRAL OK. A NARROW AXIS OF INSTABILITY HAS THUS DEVELOPED WITHIN THIS CLEARING. THIS INSTABILITY WILL INCREASE AND THE AXIS IS EXPECTED SLOWLY EXPAND IN AREAL COVERAGE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. WITH PRESENCE OF STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND COLD MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES /-20 TO -25 DEG C AT 500 MB/ FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE UP TO 1000 J/KG OF MUCAPE BY EARLY AFTERNOON. SURFACE BASED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN TO FORM ON EITHER THE SLOWLY MOVING COLD FRONT OVER FAR NERN OK/SWRN MO...OR ONE OR MORE SURFACE TROUGHS OVER FAR ERN OK/WRN AR BY 18Z AS FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES IN THE 63-65 DEG F RANGE. GIVEN SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY...COLD LOW-MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES AND MODEST SHEAR...AT LEAST MARGINALLY SVR HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS. ..CROSBIE.. 03/09/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LZK...SGF...SHV...TSA... 33889432 35979315 37149277 37589414 36649501 35739505 34079521 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu Mar 9 19:53:42 2006 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Thu, 09 Mar 2006 14:53:42 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <20060309195622.A5835D45A2@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 091955 SWOMCD SPC MCD 091955 ARZ000-MOZ000-092200- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0209 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0155 PM CST THU MAR 09 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL AR AND SCENTRAL/SERN MO CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 091955Z - 092200Z ISOLATED SVR STORMS WITH LARGE HAIL ARE POSSIBLE EAST OF WW 51...CENTRAL AR AND SCENTRAL/SERN MO...IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. LATEST VISIBLE SAT DATA SHOWS CLEARING TREND WAS PROGRESSING INTO CENTRAL AR BEHIND SQUALL LINE OVER THE MS VALLEY. AS A RESULT THE AIRMASS WAS DESTABILIZING AS /LIT WAS 70/62 AT 19Z/. GIVEN SATELLITE TRENDS...THIS DESTABILIZATION SHOULD CONTINUE AND DEVELOP NWD INTO SCENTRAL AND EVENTUALLY SERN MO OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT LITTLE CINH REMAINS AND THUNDERSTORM INITIATION IS POSSIBLE ALONG DRYLINE ACROSS CENTRAL MO BY 20Z. GIVEN UP TO 1000 J/KG OF MUCAPE AND MODERATE SHEAR/COLD MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES ISOLATED LARGE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE. ..CROSBIE.. 03/09/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...PAH...MEG...LSX...LZK...SGF... 35199113 36669049 37339042 37329156 36699186 35609234 35009277 34059319 33979207 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu Mar 9 21:04:55 2006 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Thu, 09 Mar 2006 16:04:55 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <20060309210725.2938CD42E0@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 092106 SWOMCD SPC MCD 092106 MOZ000-ARZ000-092230- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0210 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0306 PM CST THU MAR 09 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...NRN/CENTRAL AR AND SWRN MO CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 51... VALID 092106Z - 092230Z THREAT FOR SVR WILL LIKELY BE HIGHEST ACROSS NCENTRAL AR IN THE NEXT 2 HOURS AHEAD OF CONVECTIVE CLUSTER. A NEW WW MAY BE NEEDED BY 22Z FOR THE AREA DOWNSTREAM OF THIS CLUSTER /NERN AR/ AND OUTSIDE OF WW 51. LATEST RAD/SAT IMAGERY SHOWS A CONVECTIVE CLUSTER OVER NWRN AR. SVR WINDS AND MARGINALLY SVR HAIL HAS BEEN REPORTED WITH STORMS IN THE CLUSTER OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS. WV IMAGERY CONFIRMS THIS ACTIVITY WAS ORGANIZED JUST AHEAD OF A PRONOUNCED VORT MAX. GIVEN THE MODEST INSTABILITY /MUCAPES AROUND 1000 J/KG PER MODEL SOUNDING DATA/ SOMEWHAT WEAKER DEEP LAYER SHEAR IN PROXIMITY TO THE HE VORT MAX HAS AIDED IN THE ORGANIZATION OF THIS CLUSTER. FURTHER SOUTH...CONVECTION CONTINUES DEVELOP OVER THE SERN PORTION OF WW 51 INTO CENTRAL AR...BUT STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR /70-90 KTS/ WILL TEND TO LIMIT UPDRAFT INTENSITY GIVEN ONLY MODEST INSTABILITY. FURTHER NORTH IN SCENTRAL/CENTRAL MO WEAKER INSTABILITY /MUCAPES FROM 500-750 J/KG/ SHOULD CONTINUE TO LIMIT SVR THREAT. GIVEN OVERALL LINEAR MODE OF CONVECTION AHEAD OF VORT MAX INTO NCENTRAL AR...DAMAGING WINDS WILL REMAIN THE PRIMARY SVR THREAT. HOWEVER STEEP LAPSE RATES WILL STILL SUPPORT THREAT FOR MARGINALLY SVR HAIL WITH ANY ISOLATED SUPERCELLS. ..CROSBIE.. 03/09/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LSX...LZK...SGF...TSA... 38369084 38439256 37359304 35579341 35149317 34729293 35279257 36819172 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu Mar 9 21:30:37 2006 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Thu, 09 Mar 2006 16:30:37 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <20060309213259.87BB9D42E0@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 092132 SWOMCD SPC MCD 092132 OHZ000-KYZ000-INZ000-TNZ000-092300- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0211 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0332 PM CST THU MAR 09 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS SRN INDIANA...W-CENTRAL THROUGH N-CENTRAL KY...WRN/MID TN...SWRN OH. CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 52... VALID 092132Z - 092300Z LINE OF STRONG-SEVERE TSTMS WITH EMBEDDED LEWP/BOW PATTERNS WILL CONTINUE MOVING NEWD ACROSS WW AREA...AND THEN UP OH VALLEY TOWARD REMAINDER SERN INDIANA...N-CENTRAL KY AND SWRN OH. LINE HAS PRODUCED DAMAGING GUSTS AND FUNNEL CLOUD REPORTS IN PAST 2-3 HOURS. WW MAY BE CLEARED BEHIND THIS CONVECTION. TN PORTION OF LINE WILL MOVE INTO NRN SECTION OF SVR WW 53 BEFORE WW 52 EXPIRES. MODIFIED RUC SOUNDINGS INDICATE BASE OF EFFECTIVE LIFTED LAYER WILL REMAIN ON OR BARELY ABOVE SFC FOR ANOTHER FEW HOURS...MAINTAINING AT LEAST MRGL TORNADO RISK GIVEN PRESENCE OF VERY STRONG DEEP-LAYER SHEAR AND ENLARGED LOW LEVEL HODOGRAPHS. NEUTRAL TO WEAKLY UNSTABLE MEAN LAPSE RATES WILL MITIGATE BUOYANCY...KEEPING MUCAPES BELOW 500 J/KG IN MOST AREAS. ONCE ACTIVITY MOVES E AND NE OF WW AREA...OVERALL TORNADO POTENTIAL IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH IN CONJUNCTION WITH WEAKENING THETAE IN NEAR-SFC LAYER...AS ACTIVITY MOVES INTO PROGRESSIVELY WEAKER INSTABILITY. HOWEVER...OCNL WIND DAMAGE MAY PERSIST WITH THIS ACTIVITY AS FAR NE AS SWRN OH. ..EDWARDS.. 03/09/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...JKL...ILN...LMK...OHX...IND...PAH...MEG... 40078583 38848661 37998705 36628836 36068848 35618848 35218818 35228770 35888711 36688657 36678509 39088414 39978480 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu Mar 9 21:50:04 2006 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Thu, 09 Mar 2006 16:50:04 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <20060309215226.1D5B2D45A2@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 092151 SWOMCD SPC MCD 092151 ALZ000-MSZ000-LAZ000-092245- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0212 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0351 PM CST THU MAR 09 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS ERN/SRN MS...SERN LA. CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 50... VALID 092151Z - 092245Z WW MAY BE CLEARED BEHIND PRIMARY BAND OF SEVERE TSTMS. ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO POSE THREAT OF DAMAGING WIND...AS IT MOVES NEWD ACROSS ERN/SRN MS AND PORTIONS SERN LA. TORNADO THREAT STILL REMAINS BUT IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH WITH TIME OVER NRN PORTION OF LINE AS ACTIVITY MOVES INTO PROGRESSIVELY LOWER THETAE AIR MASS...AND INTO SEVERE WW 53. BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW OVER INFLOW SECTOR FARTHER S -- ACROSS SERN MS AND SERN LA -- IS EXPECTED TO VEER SOMEWHAT AS REGION OF STRONGEST PRESSURE FALLS SHIFTS NEWD AWAY FROM AREA. THIS MAY REDUCE CONVERGENCE AND LIMIT ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT INVOF SRN PORTION OF CONVECTIVE BAND. VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES WILL REMAIN FAVORABLE...HOWEVER...WITH 0-1 KM SRH 400-600 J/KG AND 0-6 KM AGL SHEARS OF 60-80 KT. MLCAPES AROUND 500-1000 J/KG WILL DIMINISH THROUGH REMAINDER AFTERNOON AFTER PEAK SFC HEATING...BUT LIFTED PARCELS SHOULD REMAIN SFC BASED FOR REMAINDER OF DURATION OF WW. ..EDWARDS.. 03/09/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...BMX...HUN...MOB...MEG...JAN...LIX...LCH... 30839135 31808971 33438873 34948793 34788763 33098830 32048864 30818856 29738982 29249124 29599210 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu Mar 9 22:42:41 2006 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Thu, 09 Mar 2006 17:42:41 -0500 Subject: [MCD] {Spam?} SWOMCD Message-ID: <20060309224717.01017D45A2@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 092244 SWOMCD SPC MCD 092244 KYZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-TNZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-092345- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0213 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0444 PM CST THU MAR 09 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...FAR SERN MO/NERN AR...FAR WRN KY/SRN IL AND WRN TN CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 092244Z - 092345Z THREAT FOR ISOLATED SVR STORMS SHOULD CONTINUE TO MOVE EWD TOWARDS THE MS VALLEY IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. A WW MAY BE NEEDED BY 23Z. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS CLEARING CONTINUES IN THE WAKE OF A SQUALL LINE FURTHER EAST OF THE REGION. RECENT TRACKING OF THE BACK EDGE OF THE CIRRUS SHEATH INDICATES NEWD MOVEMENT OF 65-70 KTS. THIS SPEED HAS INCREASED OVER THE LAST FEW HRS...LIKELY AS A RESULT OF THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS BECOMING NEGATIVELY TILTED OVER AR. MEANWHILE...CONVECTIVE CLUSTER WAS MOVING AROUND 40-45 KTS. THUS...ALONG WITH INCREASING MID LEVEL COLD ADVECTION...SUFFICIENT DESTABILIZATION AND THREAT FOR SVR STORMS SHOULD CONTINUE TO DEVELOP FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS OVER NERN AR/SERN MO INTO FAR WRN KY/WRN TN AND SRN IL. IN ADDITION TO THE THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL/DMGG WINDS...STRONG LOW LEVEL SHEAR /300 M2/S2 0-1 KM SRH/ WAS BEGINNING TO REDEVELOP /PER BLM PROFILER/ OVER THE MS RIVER VALLEY. THUS AN ISOLATED TORNADO OR TWO WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE. ..CROSBIE.. 03/09/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...PAH...MEG...LSX...LZK... 38278852 37848779 36188845 35288898 35088961 35339101 35909144 38099004 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu Mar 9 22:52:53 2006 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Thu, 09 Mar 2006 17:52:53 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <20060309225515.E1D64D45A2@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 092254 SWOMCD SPC MCD 092254 KYZ000-TNZ000-VAZ000-GAZ000-NCZ000-ALZ000-MSZ000-092330- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0214 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0454 PM CST THU MAR 09 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL AND NRN AL/MIDDLE AND ERN TN/NRN GA/CENTRAL AND ERN KY CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 53... VALID 092254Z - 092330Z ONE OR TWO NEW WEATHER WATCHES WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED FROM GA NWD TO PARTS OF KY. STRONG SQUALL LINE WITH EMBEDDED BOW ECHO OVER NRN AL WILL CONTINUE MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST AT 55-60 KT...WITH THE BOW OVER NRN AL HAVING THE FASTEST SPEED AROUND 60 KT. LATEST SURFACE PRESSURE ANALYSIS INDICATED A PERSISTENT RISE/FALL COUPLET EXTENDING FROM CENTRAL MS /RISES/ INTO NRN AL/MIDDLE TN /FALLS/...WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO AID IN STRONG LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE...MAINTAINING THE FORCED LINE OF CONVECTION. VAD WIND DATA OVER MS IN THE WAKE OF THE SQUALL LINE/BOW ECHO INDICATED WSWLY LOW-LEVEL WINDS AT 55-70 KT IN THE 1-2 KM LAYER AGL. THIS WILL FAVOR THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS AS THE SQUALL LINE CONTINUES ENEWD. DESPITE MARGINAL INSTABILITY...STRONG AFOREMENTIONED FORCING WILL COMPENSATE FOR WEAKER THERMODYNAMICS SUPPORTING THE CONTINUED SEVERE THREAT EAST AND NORTH OF WW 53. ..PETERS.. 03/09/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...RLX...GSP...MRX...JKL...FFC...ILN...LMK...OHX...BMX...HUN...MOB...JAN... 32188877 34028740 36018706 37918592 38538446 38018264 35998326 35558335 33808360 32438422 32038692 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu Mar 9 23:42:17 2006 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Thu, 09 Mar 2006 18:42:17 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <20060309234443.2759BD45A2@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 092344 SWOMCD SPC MCD 092343 ALZ000-FLZ000-MSZ000-LAZ000-100015- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0215 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0543 PM CST THU MAR 09 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...SERN LA/SERN MS CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 50... VALID 092343Z - 100015Z WW 50 WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AS SCHEDULED AT 10/00Z. REGIONAL RADARS INDICATED STRONGEST STORMS HAVE MOVED NEWD INTO AL...WITH A FEW STORMS ALONG THE SRN EXTENT OF THE CONVECTIVE LINE INTO SRN MS. DEEP LAYER SHEAR REMAINS SUPPORTIVE OF ORGANIZED STORMS WITHIN MARGINAL INSTABILITY OVER SRN MS AND MODERATE INSTABILITY ACROSS PARTS OF SERN LA. HOWEVER...STRONGER FORCING WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NEWD AWAY FROM THIS REGION ACROSS THE TN/OH RIVER VALLEYS...SUGGESTING SEVERE THREAT WITHIN VALID PART OF WW 50 AND POTENTIALLY ADJACENT PARTS OF SWRN AL WILL BE MINIMAL ALLOWING THIS WATCH TO EXPIRE. ..PETERS.. 03/09/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...BMX...MOB...JAN...LIX...LCH... 29109161 30209162 31529017 32208848 32008745 30208758 29318891 28788915 28699063 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri Mar 10 00:53:26 2006 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Thu, 09 Mar 2006 19:53:26 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <20060310005552.A7CBFD4964@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 100055 SWOMCD SPC MCD 100054 OHZ000-KYZ000-INZ000-TNZ000-ILZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-100300- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0216 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0654 PM CST THU MAR 09 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...WRN AND CENTRAL KY/SRN IND/SWRN OH...SERN IL...FAR NERN AR AND WRN/MIDDLE TN CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 52...54... VALID 100054Z - 100300Z THREAT FOR SEVERE WINDS WILL END OVER THE REMAINING PORTION OF WW 52 IN THE NEXT HALF OF AN HOUR...THUS WW 52 WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 01Z. SVR THREAT MAY REDEVELOP AFTER 02Z ACROSS PORTIONS OF WRN/CENTRAL KY...SRN IND AND SWRN OH AND A NEW WW MAY BE NEEDED IN THESE AREAS BEFORE THEN. CONVECTIVE LINE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH WW 52 AND INTO WW 55 OVER CENTRAL/ERN KY. FURTHER WEST...WELL ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE LINE OVER THE MS RIVER VALLEY /WW 54/ WILL MOVE EWD FROM 35-45 KTS THROUGH REMAINDER OF WW 54 OVER THE 1-2 HOURS. GIVEN THE NEGATIVE TILT TO THE APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH ENHANCING MID LEVEL COLD ADVECTION...FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT SURFACE CONDITIONS OF AROUND 57/54 WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR SURFACE BASED THUNDERSTORMS AND MUCAPES AROUND 750 J/KG. GIVEN STRONG PRESSURE FALLS IN WRN KY/SWRN IND ENHANCING CONVERGENCE AHEAD OF CONVECTIVE LINE...A CONTINUED FORWARD PROGRESS AND SEVERE THREAT IS VERY POSSIBLE WELL BEYOND 03Z. THUS A NEW WW MAY BE NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF WRN AND CENTRAL KY/SRN IND...SWRN OH AND WRN/MIDDLE TN BEFORE THEN. DESPITE LINEAR STRUCTURE TO CONVECTIVE LINE...BACKED/STRONG LOW LEVEL FLOW AS EVIDENT BY THE PAH VWP /0-1 KM SRH AROUND 500 M2/S2/...WILL SUPPORT THREAT FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES. ..CROSBIE.. 03/10/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...ILN...LMK...OHX...IND...PAH...ILX...MEG... 39088417 39698466 38798836 37818925 36258959 35939009 35609018 35468872 35848762 36218646 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri Mar 10 01:21:04 2006 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Thu, 09 Mar 2006 20:21:04 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <20060310012331.B78A5D45A2@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 100122 SWOMCD SPC MCD 100122 TNZ000-NCZ000-GAZ000-KYZ000-ALZ000-100215- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0217 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0722 PM CST THU MAR 09 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN TN/FAR WRN NC/PARTS OF ERN AL/NWRN GA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 53...56... VALID 100122Z - 100215Z SEVERE THREAT IS EXPECTED TO END ACROSS WW 53 BY 0130Z AS STORMS CONTINUE TO MOVE INTO WW 56. THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS WILL PERSIST ACROSS WW 56...WITH GREATEST THREAT EXPECTED TO BE CONFINED TO NWRN GA AND ERN TN INTO FAR WRN NC...WHERE SQUALL LINE CONTINUES TO TRACK TO THE ENE AT AROUND 40 KT. FARTHER S...THE SRN EXTENT OF THE SQUALL LINE ACROSS EAST CENTRAL AL WAS MOVING TO THE ENE AT 30 KT. DECREASING COVERAGE IN LIGHTNING DATA DURING THE LAST HOUR /SINCE 00Z/ ACROSS WW 53 AND 56 COMBINED WITH LESS OF A SIGNIFICANT RISE/FALL COUPLET ACROSS THIS REGION AND A STRONG CAP ON THE 00Z ATL SOUNDING SUGGEST SEVERE THREAT WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE. ..PETERS.. 03/10/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...GSP...MRX...JKL...FFC...LMK...OHX...BMX...HUN...MOB... 32108774 32818686 34208600 35138578 35608585 36648533 36538334 35028363 33278467 32578537 32108648 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri Mar 10 02:18:02 2006 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Thu, 09 Mar 2006 21:18:02 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <20060310022244.5D019D4964@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 100219 SWOMCD SPC MCD 100219 OHZ000-KYZ000-TNZ000-INZ000-100315- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0218 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0819 PM CST THU MAR 09 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL-ERN KY/FAR SERN IND/SWRN OH CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 55... VALID 100219Z - 100315Z LOW-TOPPED FORCED LINE OF CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO POSE A THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS ACROSS THE SERN/ERN PART OF WW 55 THROUGH 0330Z. DESPITE LACK OF LIGHTNING ALONG THIS CONVECTIVE LINE...CURRENTLY EXTENDING FROM MONTGOMERY TO LAUREL COUNTIES IN ERN KY...NARROW AXIS OF WEAK INSTABILITY ALONG THIS LINE COMBINED WITH FORWARD SPEED AT 40-45 KT SUGGESTS THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS TO PERSIST. ALTHOUGH WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION EXTENDS ACROSS MOST OF WW 55... FAST MOVING /ENE AT 55 KT/ UPSTREAM BOW ECHO WITH THE APEX CURRENTLY APPROACHING WRN KY COUNTIES OF MCLEAN TO TODD IS EXPECTED TO ENTER SW-W PART OF WW 55 AROUND 03Z. GIVEN THE APPROACH OF THE UPSTREAM BOW...THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS REMAINS ACROSS ALL OF WW 55 AS STRONG MID-LEVEL COOLING/FORCING FOR ASCENT WITH NEGATIVELY TILTED TROUGH OVERSPREADS LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AXIS. ..PETERS.. 03/10/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...RLX...MRX...JKL...ILN...LMK...OHX... 39548478 39478272 38328269 37208299 36588395 36638640 38078588 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri Mar 10 19:36:29 2006 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Fri, 10 Mar 2006 14:36:29 -0500 Subject: [MCD] {Spam?} SWOMCD Message-ID: <20060310193847.606DCD46B5@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 101938 SWOMCD SPC MCD 101937 GAZ000-FLZ000-ALZ000-MSZ000-LAZ000-102130- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0222 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0137 PM CST FRI MAR 10 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS CENTRAL/SERN LA...SRN MS...SRN AL...WRN FL PANHANDLE...EXTREME SWRN GA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 101937Z - 102130Z SVR TSTM POTENTIAL MAY BE INCREASING ALONG GULF COASTAL PLAIN FROM SERN LA TO WRN FL PANHANDLE/SWRN GA...AND SLOWLY SHIFTING/ EXPANDING INLAND. COVERAGE SHOULD BE LIMITED BY MIDLEVEL CAPPING BUT VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES INDICATE SOME POTENTIAL FOR ORGANIZED CONVECTION. SOME PARTS OF THIS AREA MAY NEED WW THIS AFTERNOON. SFC MESOANALYSIS SHOWS WARM FRONT FROM SRN SC WSWWD NEAR LINE FROM MCN TO DHN...BLENDING WITH MARINE/SEABREEZE BOUNDARY WWD TOWARD MCB. COMBINED BOUNDARY DENOTES NRN EDGE OF RICHEST RETURN FLOW MOISTURE AND MOST UNSTABLE LOW LEVEL AIR MASS...AND IS MOVING SLOWLY INLAND AT UP TO 10 KT ACROSS MOST OF THIS CORRIDOR. LIFT APPEARS TO BE WEAK ALONG THIS FRONT. HOWEVER...DIABATICALLY DRIVEN DESTABILIZATION HAS REDUCED SBCIN TO NEAR ZERO ACROSS PORTIONS OF GULF COASTAL PLAIN ALONG AND S OF BOUNDARY...BASED ON MODIFIED RAOBS AND RUC FCST SOUNDINGS. VIS IMAGERY SHOWS CONVECTIVE CLOUD ELEMENTS THICKENING/DEEPENING OVER THIS REGION...AS BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING ATTEMPTS TO OVERCOME WARM/STABLE LAYER AROUND 700 MB EVIDENT IN AVBL MORNING RAOBS. WITH SFC DEW POINTS MID/UPPER 60S F...MLCAPES 500-1000 J/KG ARE AVAILABLE TO ANY SUSTAINED CONVECTION THAT CAN PENETRATE THAT STABLE LAYER...WHICH IS PROGGED TO WEAKEN. ALSO...WEAK CB HAVE BEEN FORMING ALL DAY LONG IN FRONTAL SEGMENT NOW LOCATED BETWEEN MOB-MCN...AND MAY INTENSIFY DURING NEXT 1-2 HOURS AS INFLOW LAYER IS OPTIMALLY HEATED. 0-1 KM AGL HODOGRAPHS ALONG AND S OF FRONTAL ZONE ARE FAVORABLE WITH 100-200 J/KG SRH IN THAT LAYER OVER MUCH OF REGION...HOWEVER PRONOUNCED FLOW WEAKNESSES IN 2-4 KM LAYER LIMIT DEEPER LAYER SRH. MRGL 0-6 KM AGL SHEAR VALUES OF 35-45 KT ALSO ARE EVIDENT. ..EDWARDS.. 03/10/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...TAE...BMX...MOB...JAN...LIX...LCH...SHV... 31338477 30408578 30338791 30339057 30609241 30949297 31439284 31859272 32349191 31909022 31638849 31578749 31888602 31908513 31838481 31508461 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri Mar 10 20:55:43 2006 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Fri, 10 Mar 2006 15:55:43 -0500 Subject: [MCD] {Spam?} SWOMCD Message-ID: <20060310205803.ECB72D46A8@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 102057 SWOMCD SPC MCD 102056 TXZ000-102300- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0223 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0256 PM CST FRI MAR 10 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS N-CENTRAL THROUGH SE TX CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 102056Z - 102300Z CONCERN IS INCREASING FOR SEVERE TSTM DEVELOPMENT OVER PORTIONS E TX DURING NEXT 2-3 HOURS...IN FAVORABLY SHEARED AND INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT. CONDITIONAL POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR DESTRUCTIVE HAIL...AND DAMAGING GUSTS. AREA IS BEING MONITORED FOR POSSIBLE WW. SFC MESOANALYSIS SHOWS DRYLINE FROM ABOUT 25 W ALI...10 E SAT...40 W ACT...40 SW FTW...LOSING IDENTITY FARTHER N WHERE AIR MASS TO ITS E HAS NOT YET MOISTENED IN RETURN FLOW. LOW LEVEL FORCING ALONG DRYLINE HAS LED TO CONCENTRATED CU/TCU FROM CORYELL COUNTY NWD TO HOOD COUNTY. ANY ACTIVITY DEVELOPING IN THIS REGION INITIALLY WOULD BE HIGH-BASED WITH 20-30 DEG SFC DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS...BUT MOIST ADVECTION WOULD INCREASE INFLOW-LAYER THETAE WITH TIME...AND MOISTURE WILL INCREASE FAVORABLY OVER E-CENTRAL/NE TX WITH TIME. FARTHER SE TOWARD CLL/LFK AREA...LOW LEVEL FORCING IS WEAKER BUT SO IS CAPPING...AND SFC DEW POINTS HAVE RISEN INTO MID/UPPER 60S F. MODIFIED RUC SOUNDINGS INDICATE CINH HAS WEAKENED TO NEAR ZERO ACROSS PORTIONS SE TX AROUND CLL/HOU/LFK AREA...IN ASSOCIATION WITH 1. STRONG HEATING/MIXING OF INCREASINGLY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER AND 2. SLY FLOW IN 750-900 MB LAYER...CONTAINING COOLER THERMAL PROFILES THAN WILL BE PRESENT IN SWLY TRAJECTORIES FCST TO MOVE OVER AREA BY ABOUT 00Z. FLOW ALOFT IS FCST TO VEER BY 00Z AS MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH -- EVIDENT IN MOISTURE CHANNEL IMAGERY AND VWP/PROFILER WINDS OVER S-CENTRAL TX -- CONTINUES TO LIFT NEWD TOWARD ARKLATEX REGION. THIS WILL INCREASE SBCINH THROUGH ADVECTION OF ELEVATED MIXED-LAYER AIR NEWD OVER AREA. PROFILER DATA INDICATE ABOUT 300 J/KG SRH IN 0-3 KM LAYER...AND 50 KT 0-6 KM SHEAR. ..EDWARDS.. 03/10/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LCH...SHV...HGX...FWD...EWX... 30709787 31649776 32409759 32659726 32929686 32699589 32229571 31539539 31179488 30919417 30179450 29789535 30599655 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat Mar 11 00:51:36 2006 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Fri, 10 Mar 2006 19:51:36 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <20060311005352.BE862D45A2@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 110053 SWOMCD SPC MCD 110052 OKZ000-TXZ000-110215- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0224 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0652 PM CST FRI MAR 10 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF SRN-ERN OK CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 110052Z - 110215Z ISOLATED STORMS WITH A POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE HAIL/STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ALONG THE RED RIVER FROM FAR NRN COOKE COUNTY TX NWD INTO SRN OK OVER JOHNSTON/PONTOTOC COUNTIES...WITH ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY DEVELOPING/SPREADING NEWD INTO ERN OK. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD NWD THIS EVENING INTO SRN OK...WITH THE 00Z FORT WORTH SOUNDING INDICATING A FAIRLY DEEP MOISTURE RETURN FROM THE SURFACE THROUGH 700 MB SINCE 12Z. A FEW STORMS DEVELOPED DURING THE LAST HOUR OVER COOKE COUNTY TX...WITH MORE RECENT DEVELOPMENT INTO SRN OK NE OF ADM. 00Z FORT WORTH SOUNDING INDICATED THE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL WITH THE STRONGER STORMS THIS EVENING GIVEN STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES...MODERATE INSTABILITY AND STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR. INCREASING SSWLY LLJ AND SUBSEQUENT INCREASE IN LOW-LEVEL WAA ACROSS ERN OK INTO WRN AR LATER THIS EVENING WILL FAVOR ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT WITH THE PRIMARY THREAT BEING HAIL FROM ELEVATED STORMS. ..PETERS.. 03/11/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...SHV...TSA...FWD...OUN... 33849732 34029729 34599707 35189695 35699644 35649452 34029467 33779601 33689683 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat Mar 11 04:11:53 2006 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Fri, 10 Mar 2006 23:11:53 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <20060311041407.E0567D4565@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 110413 SWOMCD SPC MCD 110412 ARZ000-MOZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-TXZ000-110545- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0225 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1012 PM CST FRI MAR 10 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN OK/WRN-CENTRAL AR/SWRN-SRN MO CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 58... VALID 110412Z - 110545Z NEW WW MAY BE REQUIRED OVERNIGHT TO THE E AND NE OF WW 58... PRIMARILY FOR PARTS OF CENTRAL AR INTO SRN MO. AT 04Z...REGIONAL RADARS SHOWED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ACROSS SERN OK FROM BRYAN TO PITTSBURG COUNTIES...WITH STORMS EXTENDING NEWD TO MAYES/DELAWARE COUNTIES IN NERN OK. THE STRONGEST ACTIVITY LOCATED OVER THE SRN PART OF WW 58 IS CLOSER TO THE INFLOW OF STRONGER INSTABILITY. THESE STORMS CONTINUED TO SHOW GREATER DEVIANT MOTION TO THE RIGHT OF THE MEAN WIND /ENEWD AT 25-30 KT/ AS COMPARED TO THE STORMS OVER NERN OK WHICH WERE TRACKING NEWD ALONG THE LLJ AT SPEEDS CLOSE TO 60 KT. THUS...STORMS THAT CONTINUE TO HAVE DEVIANT MOTION MAY POSE AN ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT. THE STORMS OVER NERN OK HAVE WEAKENED AS THEY MOVED FARTHER AWAY FROM THE BETTER LOW-LEVEL INFLOW OF UNSTABLE AIR. HOWEVER...AIR MASS OVER NERN OK INTO WRN AR AND EVENTUALLY SRN MO IS EXPECTED DESTABILIZE THROUGH THE NIGHT PER STRONG SSWLY LLJ TRANSLATING EWD FROM ERN OK INTO AR/MO. LARGE SCALE ASCENT IS EXPECTED TO BE SUFFICIENT FOR SUSTAINED UPDRAFTS GIVEN NEWD TRACK OF SHORT WAVE TROUGH...NOW LOCATED OVER WRN OK...AND WITHIN ENTRANCE REGION OF 70 KT MID LEVEL JET OVER MID MS VALLEY. THIS COMBINED WITH INCREASING ELEVATED INSTABILITY AND EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR VALUES SUPPORTING SUPERCELLS MAY REQUIRE A NEW WW OVERNIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL AR INTO MO AS STORMS DEVELOP/SPREAD NEWD. ..PETERS.. 03/11/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LZK...SGF...SHV...EAX...TSA...ICT...FWD...OUN... 33939757 36099651 36919523 38639422 38159196 35459210 34459345 33769528 33719648 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat Mar 11 05:04:49 2006 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Sat, 11 Mar 2006 00:04:49 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <20060311050704.9163CD42E0@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 110505 SWOMCD SPC MCD 110504 COR NDZ000-SDZ000-NEZ000-111000- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0226 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1104 PM CST FRI MAR 10 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...N-CNTRL NEB...CNTRL SD AND FAR SE ND CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW VALID 110504Z - 111000Z CORRECTED TO PLACE TIME IN FIRST PARAGRAPH. A NARROW CORRIDOR OF BANDED MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW WILL TAKE SHAPE FROM PORTIONS OF N-CNTRL NEB THROUGH CNTRL SD INTO FAR SE ND. SNOWFALL RATES OF 1 IN/HR ARE LIKELY...ESPECIALLY AFTER 08Z. SHORTWAVE IN VICINITY OF NERN CO/NEB PANHANDLE WILL LIFT NEWD OVERNIGHT AND STRENGTHEN ON NOSE OF 130 KT JET ACROSS THE CNTRL PLAINS. ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW NEAR MCK WILL TRACK NEWD TOWARDS FSD BY 12Z. STRONG LOW-LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS AND ISENTROPIC LIFT IS PROGGED TO COMMENCE TO THE NW OF THE LOW FROM CNTRL NEB INTO ERN SD. RUC/NAM-ETA SOUNDINGS DEPICT A SHARP DEFORMATION ZONE BETWEEN 800 AND 700 MB WITH FULL SATURATION OF THE DENDRITIC LAYER AROUND 600 MB. SUITE OF 00Z MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A RIBBON OF GREATER THAN 0.30 INCH LIQUID EQUIVALENTS IN A 3 HR PERIOD. NAM-WRF HAS BEST REPRESENTATION OF QPF THIS EVENING AND SUPPORTS AN INCREASE IN QPF OVERNIGHT AS BATCH OF SNOWFALL OVER N-CNTRL NEB LIFTS INTO CNTRL SD. FURTHER EAST FROM AROUND 9V9 TO ABR...RAIN SHOULD CHANGE OVER TO SNOW AS WET-BULB ZERO TEMPERATURES COOL TO FREEZING WITH INCREASED DYNAMICAL LIFTING OVERNIGHT. THE HEAVIEST SNOWFALL RATES SHOULD LIE JUST TO THE WEST OF THIS LINE WITH RATES OF 1 IN/HR LIKELY. ..GRAMS.. 03/11/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...FGF...ABR...BIS...LBF...UNR... 43950140 45260019 46369876 46379716 44709882 43479976 42250086 42450219  From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat Mar 11 07:28:39 2006 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Sat, 11 Mar 2006 02:28:39 -0500 Subject: [MCD] {Spam?} SWOMCD Message-ID: <20060311073104.6BAF9D45A2@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 110730 SWOMCD SPC MCD 110729 KYZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-TNZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-110930- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0227 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0129 AM CST SAT MAR 11 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...NERN AR / WRN TN / SERN MO / SRN IL / WRN KY CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 110729Z - 110930Z POTENTIAL FOR ELEVATED TSTMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE BETWEEN 08-10Z. CONVECTIVE TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED FOR A WW. 07Z MESOANALYSIS INDICATED WARM FRONT RETREATING NWD THROUGH CNTRL AR AND WRN TN WITH DEWPOINTS INCREASING THROUGH THE 50S INTO LOWER 60S S OF THIS FEATURE. ALOFT...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS LIFTING NEWD THROUGH CNTRL/ERN OK WITH DOWNSTREAM REGION OF FORCING FOR ASCENT CONTRIBUTING TO THE STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ONGOING OVER ERN OK INTO WRN AR. SLY LLJ HAS ALSO INTENSIFIED AHEAD OF THIS DISTURBANCE FROM THE SABINE RIVER VALLEY NWD THROUGH AR INTO MO AND THE MID MS RIVER VALLEY...WITH STRONG WAA CONTRIBUTING TO ADDITIONAL TSTM DEVELOPMENT N OF SURFACE WARM FRONT OVER SRN INTO SERN MO /PER RECENT LIGHTNING DATA/. RUC FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE CONSIDERABLE MOISTENING AROUND 850 MB WITHIN THIS WAA REGIME...BENEATH STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF 7-8 C/KM WHERE MUCAPES ARE INCREASING TO 1000-1500 J/KG. IT APPEARS THAT THIS ELEVATED CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP NEWD INTO THE MID MS RIVER VALLEY THROUGH 09-12Z ALONG NOSE OF AFOREMENTIONED LLJ. GIVEN THE POTENTIALLY MODERATE INSTABILITY AND 35-45 KTS OF EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR...ORGANIZED/ROTATING UPDRAFTS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT BEING LARGE HAIL. ..MEAD.. 03/11/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...PAH...ILX...MEG...LSX... 36029112 37209100 37779095 38519072 38799038 39048964 38898843 38238782 37048797 36128863 35688900 35569062 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat Mar 11 09:08:08 2006 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Sat, 11 Mar 2006 04:08:08 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <20060311091024.348A2D43A2@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 110909 SWOMCD SPC MCD 110908 KYZ000-TNZ000-INZ000-ALZ000-ILZ000-MSZ000-111045- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0228 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0308 AM CST SAT MAR 11 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...WRN AND MIDDLE TN INTO WRN AND CNTRL KY CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 110908Z - 111045Z EWD EXPANSION OF ELEVATED TSTMS MAY OCCUR EARLY THIS MORNING ACROSS DISCUSSION AREA...WITH MOST INTENSE STORMS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL. CONVECTIVE TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE WW. AS OF 09Z...REGIONAL RADAR AND LIGHTNING DATA INDICATED TSTMS BEGINNING TO DEVELOP OVER NRN MS /S OF MEM/ PRESUMABLY ALONG SRN FRINGE OF STRONGER FORCING FOR ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH SHORTWAVE TROUGH LIFTING NEWD THROUGH AR. ADDITIONAL...SHALLOWER CONVECTION IS ALSO BECOMING MORE WIDESPREAD TO THE NE OVER PARTS OF WRN AND MIDDLE TN INTO WRN AND CNTRL KY...LIKELY BEING DRIVEN MORE SO BY WAA/ISENTROPIC ASCENT ALONG LLJ AXIS. RUC OBJECTIVE FIELDS INDICATE THAT AMBIENT AIR MASS IS MODERATELY UNSTABLE /MUCAPES OF 1000-2000 J/KG/ ACROSS SRN HALF OF DISCUSSION AREA WITH CONSIDERABLE DESTABILIZATION OCCURRING FARTHER TO THE N ACROSS THE WRN HALF OF KY. LATEST TRENDS IN 11/06Z MODEL GUIDANCE DO SUGGEST THAT ELEVATED TSTMS WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH 12Z. GIVEN THE MODERATE INSTABILITY AND 35-45 KTS OF DEEP-LAYER SHEAR THROUGH THE LOWER HALF OF THE CLOUD-BEARING LAYER...POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR A FEW SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF MAINLY LARGE HAIL. ..MEAD.. 03/11/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LMK...OHX...HUN...PAH...MEG... 35058963 36248892 37478827 38008771 38148716 38278644 38008574 37178547 36288587 35318651 34818755 34568874 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat Mar 11 09:32:59 2006 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Sat, 11 Mar 2006 04:32:59 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <20060311093515.5986FD43A2@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 110934 SWOMCD SPC MCD 110934 INZ000-ILZ000-MOZ000-111100- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0229 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0334 AM CST SAT MAR 11 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL IL CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 110934Z - 111100Z POTENTIAL FOR MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE ACROSS DISCUSSION AREA THROUGH 11/12Z. THOUGH A WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED ATTM...CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED. AS OF 0920Z...REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY SHOWED A CLUSTER OF ELEVATED TSTMS OVER SERN AND E-CNTRL MO INTO FAR SRN IL MOVING NE AT 45-55 KTS. RUC OBJECTIVE FIELDS INDICATE THAT THIS ACTIVITY IS OCCURRING ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF RICHER 850 MB MOISTURE WHICH IS BEING ADVECTED NNEWD ALONG LLJ AXIS CURRENTLY EXTENDING FROM THE LOWER MS VALLEY INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST. WHILE AIR MASS WILL CONTINUE TO DESTABILIZE NWD OWING TO THIS INCREASE IN LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE BENEATH STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES...IT APPEARS THE STRONGEST INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN FARTHER TO S ACROSS THE MID MS VALLEY AND MID S...IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO SURFACE WARM FRONT. THEREFORE...EXPECT THAT A FEW STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL AS THEY MOVE OUT OF WW 60. THESE STORMS SHOULD TEND TO WEAKEN WITH NWD EXTEND AS AIR MASS BECOMES PROGRESSIVELY MORE STABLE. ..MEAD.. 03/11/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...IND...PAH...LOT...ILX...LSX...DVN... 38559090 39079146 40019150 40549064 40618945 40518804 39898706 39038708 38478751 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat Mar 11 10:24:25 2006 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Sat, 11 Mar 2006 05:24:25 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <20060311102641.EB262D4A5A@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 111026 SWOMCD SPC MCD 111025 MOZ000-ARZ000-OKZ000-TXZ000-111130- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0230 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0425 AM CST SAT MAR 11 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...WRN AND CNTRL AR INTO SRN MO CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 59... VALID 111025Z - 111130Z WW 60 LIKELY BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 11Z. DESPITE THE PRESENCE OF A MOIST AND MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS ALONG AND S OF WARM FRONT LIFTING NWD THROUGH WW...TSTMS CONTINUE TO WEAKEN EARLY THIS MORNING ACROSS PORTIONS OF CNTRL AR. PASSAGE OF SHORTWAVE TROUGH TO THE NE OF AREA MAY...IN PART...BE CONTRIBUTING TO THIS OBSERVED WEAKENING TREND...WITH STRONGER DEEP-LAYER FORCING SHIFTING INTO THE MID MS VALLEY. CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT WW 60 WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 11Z. OF INTEREST IS ENHANCED ZONE OF MID OR HIGH-LEVEL CLOUDINESS WHICH HAS RECENTLY DEVELOPED OVER SERN OK PER IR SATELLITE IMAGERY. THERE IS UNCERTAINTY AS TO WHETHER THIS IS AN ADVECTIVE FEATURE OR ONE GENERATED VIA LOCALIZED ZONE OF ASCENT. IT WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED. ..MEAD.. 03/11/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...PAH...MEG...LSX...LZK...SGF...SHV...TSA...FWD... 33879548 37289299 37259060 33839322 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat Mar 11 10:27:57 2006 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Sat, 11 Mar 2006 05:27:57 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <20060311103013.3C1B3D4565@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 111029 SWOMCD SPC MCD 111029 COR MOZ000-ARZ000-OKZ000-TXZ000-111130- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0230 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0429 AM CST SAT MAR 11 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...WRN AND CNTRL AR INTO SRN MO CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 59... VALID 111029Z - 111130Z CORRECTED FOR WW REFERENCE...SHOULD BE WW59 WW 59 LIKELY BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 11Z. DESPITE THE PRESENCE OF A MOIST AND MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS ALONG AND S OF WARM FRONT LIFTING NWD THROUGH WW...TSTMS CONTINUE TO WEAKEN EARLY THIS MORNING ACROSS PORTIONS OF CNTRL AR. PASSAGE OF SHORTWAVE TROUGH TO THE NE OF AREA MAY...IN PART...BE CONTRIBUTING TO THIS OBSERVED WEAKENING TREND...WITH STRONGER DEEP-LAYER FORCING SHIFTING INTO THE MID MS VALLEY. CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT WW 59 WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 11Z. OF INTEREST IS ENHANCED ZONE OF MID OR HIGH-LEVEL CLOUDINESS WHICH HAS RECENTLY DEVELOPED OVER SERN OK PER IR SATELLITE IMAGERY. THERE IS UNCERTAINTY AS TO WHETHER THIS IS AN ADVECTIVE FEATURE OR ONE GENERATED VIA LOCALIZED ZONE OF ASCENT. IT WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED. ..MEAD.. 03/11/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...PAH...MEG...LSX...LZK...SGF...SHV...TSA...FWD... 33879548 37289299 37259060 33839322 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat Mar 11 11:52:47 2006 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Sat, 11 Mar 2006 06:52:47 -0500 Subject: [MCD] {Spam?} SWOMCD Message-ID: <20060311115501.0D9B6D4712@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 111154 SWOMCD SPC MCD 111153 KYZ000-INZ000-TNZ000-ALZ000-ILZ000-MSZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-111330- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0231 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0553 AM CST SAT MAR 11 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...SERN MO / SRN IL / SRN IND / WRN AND CNTRL KY / WRN AND MIDDLE TN CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 60...61... VALID 111153Z - 111330Z POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED LARGE HAIL WILL CONTINUE ACROSS WW/S 60 AND 61 THROUGH 13Z. ADDITIONALLY...SOME MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE N AND E OF WW 61 OVER SRN IND INTO NRN KY. AS OF 1140Z...REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY SHOWED A CLUSTER OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS FROM NEAR MVN EWD TO 30 W SDF...WITH A GENERAL ENEWD MOTION OF 40-50 KTS. RUC OBJECTIVE FIELDS AND PLAN VIEW PROFILER/VAD DATA SUGGEST THAT THIS ACTIVITY IS OCCURRING WITHIN A ZONE OF STRONG LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION /I.E. AROUND 850 MB/ ALONG SWLY LLJ AXIS. THIS MOISTENING BENEATH STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF 7-7.5 C/KM IS RESULTING IN A MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS FOR PARCELS BASED IN THIS MOISTENING LAYER WITH MUCAPES OF 1000-1500 J/KG. THIS INSTABILITY COUPLED WITH MODERATELY STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR THROUGH THE CLOUD-BEARING LAYER WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT ORGANIZED UPDRAFTS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL...ESPECIALLY ALONG OR JUST N OF THE OH RIVER IN FAR SRN IND. SOME MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE N AND E OF WW 61...THOUGH IT APPEARS THAT DECREASING INSTABILITY WITH NEWD EXTENT SHOULD TEND TO LIMIT UPDRAFT INTENSITY. FARTHER S...ADDITIONAL CLUSTERS OF STRONG STORMS ARE ONGOING OVER SERN MO /NEAR CGI/ AND WRN TN /E OF MKL/. THIS ACTIVITY MAY BE MORE CLOSELY TIED TO WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH LIFTING NEWD INTO THE MID MS VALLEY. HERE TOO...AIR MASS IS MODERATELY UNSTABLE /MUCAPES OF 1000-2000 J/KG/ WITH SUFFICIENTLY STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR FOR ROTATING UPDRAFTS. THEREFORE...EXPECT THREAT FOR ISOLATED SEVERE HAIL TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS OVER SRN IL...WRN KY...AND WRN TN AS THESE STORMS MOVE NEWD. ..MEAD.. 03/11/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...ILN...LMK...OHX...IND...HUN...PAH...ILX...MEG...LSX...LZK...SGF... 35689264 38719112 38748745 38868581 38658495 37878462 37338578 34968755 34998973 35598943 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat Mar 11 12:30:14 2006 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Sat, 11 Mar 2006 07:30:14 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <20060311123235.11719D4932@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 111231 SWOMCD SPC MCD 111231 AZZ000-UTZ000-NVZ000-111830- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0232 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0631 AM CST SAT MAR 11 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL AND NRN AZ INTO SRN UT CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW VALID 111231Z - 111830Z HEAVY SNOW IS EXPECTED TO BECOME INCREASINGLY WIDESPREAD TODAY. LOCALIZED SNOW RATES APPROACHING 2-3 INCHES/HOUR WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH EMBEDDED CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS. ADDITIONALLY...INCREASING GRADIENT FLOW WILL RESULT IN CONSIDERABLE BLOWING AND DRIFTING. TRENDS IN REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY SHOW AN EXPANDING PRECIPITATION SHIELD FROM SERN CA/NRN BAJA NEWD INTO SWRN AND CNTRL AZ...IN ADVANCE OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING ONTO THE SRN CA COAST. THUS FAR...WINTER PRECIPITATION ALONG THE MOGOLLON RIM AND PLATEAU REGION HAS BEEN DRIVEN BY OROGRAPHIC FORCING OWING TO RELATIVELY STRONG SWLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW /PER AREA VWPS/. HOWEVER...WITH THE APPROACH OF THIS SHORTWAVE TROUGH...INCREASED DYNAMIC FORCING FOR ASCENT COUPLED WITH THIS OROGRAPHIC FORCING WILL RESULT IN AN INCREASE IN SNOW COVERAGE AND INTENSITY. MOREOVER...THE PRESENCE OF STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND RESULTANT CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY WILL SUPPORT A CONTINUATION OF EMBEDDED CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS WHICH WILL SIGNIFICANTLY ENHANCE PRECIPITATION RATES. EXPECT THE HEAVIEST SNOW RATES /PRIMARILY ABOVE 3000 FT MSL/ TO BEGIN AROUND 15Z AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. HOURLY SNOW RATES OF 1-2 INCHES APPEAR LIKELY WITH LOCALIZED BURSTS EXCEEDING 3 INCHES POSSIBLE. ..MEAD.. 03/11/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...GJT...TWC...FGZ...SLC...PSR...VEF... 32681040 34251332 34841446 35931460 37031375 37611305 37981234 37811074 36710926 34260915 33090908 32410941 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat Mar 11 13:53:22 2006 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Sat, 11 Mar 2006 08:53:22 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <20060311135537.20954D4932@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 111354 SWOMCD SPC MCD 111354 MNZ000-NDZ000-111800- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0233 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0754 AM CST SAT MAR 11 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN ND/FAR NW MN CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW VALID 111354Z - 111800Z BANDED MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT SLOWLY N THIS MORNING ACROSS ERN ND/FAR NW MN. SNOWFALL RATES OF 1 TO 1.5 IN/HR ARE LIKELY. MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW DEVELOPED OVERNIGHT ALONG AN AREA OF STRONG LOW-LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS AND ISENTROPIC LIFT. THIS ZONE NOW STRETCHES INTO ERN ND/FAR NW MN CO-LOCATED WITH CURRENT SNOW BAND SEEN ON KMVX RADAR. ASSOCIATED SHORTWAVE ALOFT IN ERN SD HAS SHOWN A SLIGHT DARKENING TREND OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS IN WV IMAGERY...INDICATING A SLIGHT STRENGTHENING OF THE WAVE. SURFACE LOW IN W-CNTRL MN IS PROGGED TO LIFT ALMOST DUE N TO THE LAKE OF THE WOODS REGION BY 21Z THIS AFTERNOON. THESE FEATURES WILL KEEP THE DEFORMATION ZONE AXIS ALIGNED ROUGHLY NORTH-TO-SOUTH ALONG THE RED RIVER VALLEY...AND WILL SUPPORT HEAVY SNOWFALL RATES OF 1 TO 1.5 IN/HR OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. RUC/NAM-ETA INDICATE WEAKENING OF THE FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING LATER THIS MORNING. SNOWFALL RATES SHOULD DIMINISH THEREAFTER AS THE HEAVIEST SNOW LIFTS INTO CANADA. ..GRAMS.. 03/11/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...FGF...BIS... 48909554 47009621 46009729 46189861 47449826 48999797 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat Mar 11 15:35:21 2006 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Sat, 11 Mar 2006 10:35:21 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <20060311153733.E53C5D4932@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 111537 SWOMCD SPC MCD 111536 ILZ000-KYZ000-TNZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-OKZ000-111630- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0234 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0936 AM CST SAT MAR 11 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...NERN TX...AR CONCERNING...OUTLOOK UPGRADE VALID 111536Z - 111630Z ...MODERATE RISK WILL BE EXTENDED NWD INTO PORTIONS OF SRN/ERN MO AND SRN IL ON THE 1630Z DAY 1 OUTLOOK... SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS MOVING NEWD THROUGH TX THIS MORNING WITH MOISTURE ADVECTING NWD INTO MO/SRN IL. INTENSE CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP FURTHER NWD THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING INTO MO/IL AND THE MODERATE RISK WILL BE EXTENDED INTO THESE AREA ON THE UPCOMING DAY 1 OUTLOOK. THE PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE VERY LARGE HAIL ...THOUGH TORNADOES ARE ALSO EXPECTED. ..IMY.. 03/11/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...PAH...ILX...MEG...LSX...LZK...SGF...SHV...TSA... 33599307 34069478 35999490 37489371 39089185 39389035 38918841 36908900 35149017 34339141 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat Mar 11 16:20:11 2006 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Sat, 11 Mar 2006 11:20:11 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <20060311162230.A71A8D4968@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 111621 SWOMCD SPC MCD 111621 CAZ000-112115- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0235 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1021 AM CST SAT MAR 11 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...HEAVY SNOW IN HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF SOUTHERN CA CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW VALID 111621Z - 112115Z HEAVY SNOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF SOUTHERN CA...INCLUDING THE SAN GABRIEL/SAN BERNARDINO/SAN JACINTO/LAGUNA MOUNTAINS...MAINLY ABOVE 2000-2500 FT. SNOW RATES OF 2 IN/HR WILL BE COMMON...WITH 3 IN/HR POSSIBLE WITH THE MORE INTENSE CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS. IN PRESENCE OF STRONG/DEEP UPPER TROUGH PER WV IMAGERY...RATHER COLD VERTICAL PROFILES EXIST ACROSS SOUTHERN CA AS EVIDENCED BY 12Z RAOBS FROM VANDENBERG/EDWARDS AFB/SAN DIEGO THIS MORNING. MESONET OBSERVATIONS/REPORTS ARE ALREADY INDICATIVE OF SNOW LEVELS AS LOW AS 2000-2500 FT...WITH RELATIVELY LITTLE FLUCTUATION EXPECTED PER LATEST FORECAST SOUNDINGS. STRONG JET DYNAMICS/OROGRAPHIC ASCENT WILL CONTINUE TO FAVOR HEAVY SNOW ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS OF SOUTHERN CA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. FURTHERMORE...EVIDENCED VIA 12Z OBSERVED RAOBS AND CG LIGHTNING FOCUSED ALONG THE SOUTHERN CA COAST...STEEP LAPSE RATES WILL CONTRIBUTE TO CONVECTIVELY ENHANCED SNOW RATES WITH LOCALLY LOWER SNOW LEVELS. ..GUYER.. 03/11/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...VEF...SGX...LOX... 33921653 33681640 33251642 32671635 32701675 33331698 33861729 34031756 34101782 34431777 34341678 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat Mar 11 17:57:55 2006 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Sat, 11 Mar 2006 12:57:55 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <20060311180008.BE355D4932@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 111759 SWOMCD SPC MCD 111759 MOZ000-ARZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-112000- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0236 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1159 AM CST SAT MAR 11 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN OK...NWRN AR...WRN MO...AND EXTREME SERN KS CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 111759Z - 112000Z SURFACE BASED STORMS MAY DEVELOP DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS ACROSS PORTIONS OF ERN OK...AND THEN SPREAD/DEVELOP NEWD INTO EXTREME SERN KS...SWRN MO AND NWRN AR. MONITORING AREA FOR A WW. ALTHOUGH THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE LARGE HAIL..TORNADOES ARE ALSO POSSIBLE. WEAK COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM NWRN MO AND SWWD INTO EXTREME SERN KS AND CENTRAL OK. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS ALSO MOVING NEWD THROUGH NRN TX AND MID LEVEL CONVECTION...INCLUDING ISOLATED LIGHTNING STRIKES...WAS LOCATED AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM ACROSS SOUTH AND EAST CENTRAL OK. THE OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS INDICATES THE CAP HAS WEAKENED ACROSS ERN OK...WHERE MID 70S TEMPERATURES AND 61-64 DEGREE DEWPOINTS WERE RESULTING IN MLCAPES NEAR 1500 J/KG. THIS INSTABILITY PLUS DEEP LAYER SHEAR AT 60-70 KT WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS...ONCE THE BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE CAN BE TAPPED. CURRENT THINKING IS SURFACE BASED STORMS MAY DEVELOP BY 20Z...AT WHICH TIME A WW WOULD BE NEEDED. ..IMY.. 03/11/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...SGF...EAX...TSA...ICT...OUN... 38259406 37939325 37449242 34729515 35689675 36269622 37679457 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat Mar 11 18:49:11 2006 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Sat, 11 Mar 2006 13:49:11 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <20060311185125.1BC91D4712@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 111850 SWOMCD SPC MCD 111850 CAZ000-112045- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0237 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1250 PM CST SAT MAR 11 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...COASTAL SRN CA... CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 111850Z - 112045Z BRIEF SEVERE HAIL/WINDS AND EVEN WATERSPOUT/TORNADO THREAT WILL EXIST THIS AFTERNOON ALONG THE SRN CA COASTAL AREA...BUT THE THREAT IS EXPECTED TO BE ISOLATED AND WW NOT ANTICIPATED. COLD TROUGH ALOFT WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES AND STRONG MID/HIGH LEVEL WINDS ARE RESULTING IN FAVORABLE WIND PROFILES FOR ROTATING STORMS. STRONGER CONVECTION IS CURRENTLY LOCATED 30-60 MILES OFFSHORE AND OTHER STORMS SHOULD DEVELOP OFFSHORE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THESE STORMS LIKELY WILL BE STRONGER OVER THE OCEAN WATERS...WHERE TEMPERATURES ARE WARMER THAN INLAND...RESULTING IN SLIGHTLY HIGHER INSTABILITY. HOWEVER...AS THE STORMS MOVE INTO THE COASTAL AREAS... THE INSTABILITY MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR HAIL/WIND EVENT AND POSSIBLY A BRIEF WATERSPOUT/TORNADO. IF A WATERSPOUT/TORNADO DOES DEVELOP NEAR THE COAST... THEY SHOULD WEAKEN AS THEY MOVE INLAND AND ENCOUNTER A COOLER BOUNDARY LAYER. ..IMY.. 03/11/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...SGX... 32551711 33321744 33491775 33581748 33181707 32631688 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat Mar 11 19:24:15 2006 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Sat, 11 Mar 2006 14:24:15 -0500 Subject: [MCD] {Spam?} SWOMCD Message-ID: <20060311192627.75719D4C14@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 111925 SWOMCD SPC MCD 111925 ILZ000-MOZ000-IAZ000-112100- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0238 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0125 PM CST SAT MAR 11 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...NORTHEAST/EASTERN MO INTO WESTERN/NORTHERN IL AND EXTREME EASTERN IA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 111925Z - 112100Z SEVERE THREAT EXPECTED TO DEVELOP/INCREASE ACROSS NORTHEAST/EASTERN MO INTO EXTREME EASTERN IA AND NORTHERN/WEST CENTRAL IL THROUGH MID AFTERNOON. A TORNADO WATCH MAY BE NECESSARY BY 20Z. OWING TO STEADY LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INFLUX/INSOLATION...AIRMASS CONTINUES TO QUICKLY DESTABILIZE ACROSS THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AHEAD OF COLD FRONT FROM FAR EASTERN IA INTO CENTRAL MO...AND WEST OF EFFECTIVE WARM FRONT LOCATED ACROSS WESTERN IL. DEEPENING CU FIELD IS ALREADY EVIDENT ACROSS EASTERN MO ROUGHLY BETWEEN COLUMBIA AND QUINCY IL...WHERE ADJUSTED RUC SOUNDINGS SUGGEST NEGLIGIBLE SURFACE BASED INHIBITION EXISTS. GIVEN DEVELOPMENT...MODERATE INSTABILITY VIA 1000-1500 J/KG MLCAPE AND STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS...WITH LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS. ISOLD TORNADOES WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY WHERE LOW LEVEL FLOW REMAINS BACKED AND/OR INTERACTS WITH EFFECTIVE WARM FRONT ACROSS IL. ..GUYER.. 03/11/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LOT...ILX...LSX...DVN...SGF...EAX... 42039019 41698859 41178803 39848866 38469020 38449140 38659310 39859224 40659140 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat Mar 11 21:29:17 2006 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Sat, 11 Mar 2006 16:29:17 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <20060311213133.63D62D4961@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 112130 SWOMCD SPC MCD 112130 MOZ000-ARZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-TXZ000-112300- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0239 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0330 PM CST SAT MAR 11 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN OK...MO...NWRN AR...SERN IA AND CENTRAL IL CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 62... VALID 112130Z - 112300Z TORNADO WATCH IN EFFECT UNTIL 02Z FOR PORTIONS OF ERN OK...NWRN AR AND SWRN MO. SEVERE STORMS...INCLUDING A FEW SUPERCELLS...WERE LOCATED ACROSS EXTREME NWRN AR AND SWRN MO. THESE STORMS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVE NEWD THROUGH NERN OK. THE STORMS SHOULD SPREAD NEWD DURING THE EVENING AND CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY. THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE LARGE HAIL...THOUGH THE DEGREE OF INSTABILITY AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR INDICATES TORNADOES ARE ALSO POSSIBLE. WITH CONTINUED HEATING...OTHER STORMS MAY REDEVELOP IN ERN OK ALONG A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT/DRYLINE THAT STRETCHED FROM NEAR TUL SWWD TO GAINESVILLE TX. AN AREA OF SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPEARS TO BE LIMITING DEEP CONVECTION ALONG THE BOUNDARY...BUT THE SUBSIDENCE SHOULD WEAKEN TOWARD 00Z AS THE TROUGH MOVES FURTHER NEWD INTO MO. ..IMY.. 03/11/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LSX...LZK...SGF...SHV...EAX...TSA...ICT...FWD...OUN... 33949686 37039521 39269266 38949170 38689142 37849130 37379131 35649354 33839472 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat Mar 11 21:51:22 2006 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Sat, 11 Mar 2006 16:51:22 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <20060311215335.75F4ED4712@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 112152 SWOMCD SPC MCD 112152 ILZ000-MOZ000-IAZ000-112315- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0240 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0352 PM CST SAT MAR 11 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN MO AND NORTHERN/CENTRAL IL CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 63... VALID 112152Z - 112315Z VALID PORTION OF TORNADO WATCH #63 CONTINUES UNTIL 04Z. DEVELOPMENT OF STRONG/SEVERE TSTMS CONTINUES TO QUICKLY OCCUR LATE THIS AFTERNOON FROM ALONG/JUST AHEAD OF COLD FRONT IN CENTRAL MO TO NEAR COLD FRONT/WARM FRONT CONFLUENCE IN WEST CENTRAL/NORTHWEST IL. THIS ACTIVITY WAS ROUGHLY LOCATED ALONG A COLUMBIA MO-QUINCY IL-MACOMB IL AXIS AS OF 2145Z. SIMILAR TO CURRENT TRENDS...SHORT TERM NUMERICAL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS AN ENE EXPANSION OF ONGOING ACTIVITY INTO EASTERN MO AND WEST CENTRAL/NORTH CENTRAL IL OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...WITH MEAN STORM MOTIONS TO THE NORTHEAST AT 40-45 MPH. LARGE HAIL WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE PRIMARY HAZARD OWING TO 1000-1500 J/KG MLCAPE AND STEEP LAPSE RATE/STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR ENVIRONMENT. LARGE HAIL UP TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER HAS ALREADY BEEN REPORTED IN COLUMBIA MO. ISOLATED TORNADO POTENTIAL THROUGH EARLY EVENING WILL MAINLY EXIST WHERE LOW LEVEL WINDS REMAIN BACKED AROUND TO THE SOUTH/SOUTHEAST AND/OR IN IMMEDIATE VICINITY OF WARM FRONT ACROSS WEST CENTRAL IL. ..GUYER.. 03/11/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LOT...ILX...LSX...DVN...SGF... 38149232 39039237 39829204 41009078 41478980 41478869 41248791 40238812 39478847 38538931 38058987 38019072 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat Mar 11 23:45:39 2006 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Sat, 11 Mar 2006 18:45:39 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <20060311234753.41524D4712@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 112347 SWOMCD SPC MCD 112346 WIZ000-ILZ000-120115- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0241 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0546 PM CST SAT MAR 11 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...FAR NORTHERN IL INTO SOUTHERN WI CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 112346Z - 120115Z THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR AN ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT TO DEVELOP/SPREAD ACROSS FAR NORTHERN IL INTO SOUTHERN WI OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...WITH A PRIMARY HAZARD OF LARGE HAIL. WILL MONITOR DEVELOPMENTAL TRENDS FOR A POSSIBLE SEVERE TSTM WATCH. SEVERE STORMS CONTINUE TO SPREAD NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL IL EARLY THIS EVENING...WITH THE NORTHERN EXTENT OF THIS ACTIVITY HIGHLIGHTED BY SEVERE LEFT MOVING SUPERCELL IN HENRY COUNTY IL /EAST OF MOLINE/ AS OF 2345Z. POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR THIS CELL AND/OR ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT TO BREACH THE NORTHERN PORTION OF TORNADO WATCH 63 ACROSS FAR NORTHERN IL AND SOUTHERN WI OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. STRONG SHEAR PROFILES AND STEEP LAPSE RATES/AMPLE BUOYANCY WOULD SUPPORT LARGE HAIL POTENTIAL...WITH LATEST RUC GUIDANCE SUGGESTING AROUND 1000 J/KG MUCAPE EXTENDING NORTHWARD INTO SOUTH CENTRAL WI. ..GUYER.. 03/11/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LOT...MKX...DVN...ARX... 43158816 41748842 41758923 41988999 43078996 43728972 43878912 43738834 43728836 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun Mar 12 00:09:49 2006 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Sat, 11 Mar 2006 19:09:49 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <20060312001200.99CEAD4932@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 120011 SWOMCD SPC MCD 120011 MOZ000-ARZ000-OKZ000-120215- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0242 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0611 PM CST SAT MAR 11 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN OK...NRN AR THROUGH SRN MO CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 62... VALID 120011Z - 120215Z LARGE HAIL REMAINS LIKELY WITH LINE OF SCATTERED SUPERCELLS FROM EXTREME NERN OK THROUGH SRN MO. ISOLATED TORNADOES ALSO REMAIN POSSIBLE THIS EVENING. MOST LIKELY ZONE FOR STORMS TO CONTINUE DEVELOPING REMAINS OVER SRN MO NEXT FEW HOURS. DEVELOPMENT FARTHER SWD INTO AR APPEARS LESS CERTAIN. ANOTHER WW WILL LIKELY NEEDED FOR PARTS OF SRN MO AND EXTREME NRN AR WITHIN THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS. EARLY THIS EVENING A FEW SUPERCELLS CONTINUE FROM SWRN THROUGH S CNTRL MO. STRONGEST LOW LEVEL MASS CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE INTENSIFYING LOW LEVEL JET IS EXPECTED ACROSS SRN MO NEWD INTO THE OH VALLEY THIS EVENING. STORMS SHOULD CONTINUE DEVELOPING AND SPREAD ENEWD AS THE LOW LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS AND MAINTAINS INFLUX OF HIGHER THETA-E AIR FROM THE MODERATELY UNSTABLE WARM SECTOR. DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS MORE THAN SUFFICIENT TO MAINTAIN SUPERCELL STRUCTURES. SHEAR THROUGH THE LOWEST 2 KM HAS NOT BEEN PARTICULARLY STRONG. THIS ALONG WITH HIGHER THAN OPTIMUM LCL HEIGHTS HAVE BEEN LIMITING FACTORS FOR MORE PROLIFIC TORNADO DEVELOPMENT. HOWEVER...THE STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET WILL MAINTAIN A WINDOW FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES THIS EVENING...BEFORE THE BOUNDARY LAYER DECOUPLES. LATEST VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWS TOWERING CUMULUS DEVELOPING ALONG CLOUDS STREETS ACROSS PARTS OF AR. HOWEVER...THE POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT APPEARS TO DECREASE WITH SWD EXTENT INTO AR DUE TO WEAK FORCING AND STRONGER CAP. NEVERTHELESS THIS AREA WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF FUTURE DEVELOPMENT. ..DIAL.. 03/12/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...PAH...LSX...LZK...SGF...TSA... 35819484 37599355 37748973 36748989 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun Mar 12 00:38:18 2006 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Sat, 11 Mar 2006 19:38:18 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <20060312004030.4F53BD4961@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 120039 SWOMCD SPC MCD 120039 ILZ000-MOZ000-120145- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0243 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0639 PM CST SAT MAR 11 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...NORTHERN/CENTRAL IL INTO EASTERN MO CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 63... VALID 120039Z - 120145Z VALID PORTION OF TORNADO WATCH 63 CONTINUES UNTIL 04Z. ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF TORNADO WATCH 63...PRIMARY POTENTIAL FOR AN ISOLATED TORNADO PERSISTS ROUGHLY FROM THE ST LOUIS METRO AREA SOUTHWARD...WITH LARGE HAIL OTHERWISE THE PREDOMINANT HAZARD. FURTHER NORTH...WELL DEVELOPED LINEAR MCS/BOWING SEGMENT HAS TAKEN SHAPE ACROSS CENTRAL IL OVER THE PAST 45 MINUTES...JUST WEST OF THE THE SPRINGFIELD AREA AS OF 0030Z. ALTHOUGH THE BOUNDARY LAYER STABILIZES WITH EASTWARD EXTENT...ADEQUATE LOW LEVEL SHEAR/SUFFICIENT DRY AIR ABOVE THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL FAVOR ORGANIZED COLD POOL MAINTENENCE. AS SUCH...THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS MAY INCREASE IN VICINITY OF SPRINGFIELD/LINCOLN/DECATUR IN THE SHORT TERM AS MCS SPREADS EASTWARD. FURTHER NORTH...PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL INTO NORTHEAST IL APPEARS TO BE LARGE HAIL. ..GUYER.. 03/12/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...PAH...LOT...ILX...LSX...DVN... 41088992 41588914 41418775 40818778 39248839 37988953 37899019 38009115 38339129 39069104 39569035 40158999 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun Mar 12 01:38:28 2006 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Sat, 11 Mar 2006 20:38:28 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <20060312014043.ECFBDD4932@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 120139 SWOMCD SPC MCD 120139 NMZ000-AZZ000-120545- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0244 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0739 PM CST SAT MAR 11 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...MOUNTAINS OF EAST CENTRAL AZ CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW VALID 120139Z - 120545Z HEAVY SNOW WILL CONTINUE/GRADUALLY FOCUS PROGRESSIVELY EASTWARD THROUGH THE NIGHT ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS OF EAST CENTRAL AZ...WITH SNOW RATES OF 2-3 IN/HR POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY ABOVE 2500 FT. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY/UPPER AIR DIAGNOSTICS FEATURE DEEP/COLD UPPER TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN STATES...WITH VERY STRONG MID/UPPER LEVEL JET WITHIN THE BASE OF THE TROUGH OVERSPREADING SOUTHERN CA INTO THE SOUTHWEST DESERTS. IN ADDITION TO FAVORABLE JET DYNAMICS...STEEP LAPSE RATES AND PRONOUNCED OROGRAPHIC ASCENT VIA STRONG MID LEVEL SW JET -- 60 KTS AT 700 MB IN TUCSON RAOB -- WILL CONTINUE TO YIELD HEAVY SNOW INTO THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF AZ...WITH A GRADUAL EASTWARD SHIFT OF THE HEAVIEST SNOW EXPECTED THROUGH THE NIGHT. SNOW RATES OF 2 IN/HR WILL BE COMMON...WITH 3 IN/HR RATES POSSIBLE IN ASSOCIATION WITH CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS IN PRESENCE OF STEEP LAPSE RATES...FURTHER EVIDENCED BY PERSISTENT LIGHTNING ACROSS SOUTHERN AZ. ..GUYER.. 03/12/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...ABQ...EPZ...TWC...FGZ...PSR... 35131217 35261138 34820989 34440915 33270848 33110909 33341014 33521079 34021203 34281237 34641246 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun Mar 12 01:47:02 2006 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Sat, 11 Mar 2006 20:47:02 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <20060312014917.B0106D4712@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 120148 SWOMCD SPC MCD 120148 ARZ000-TXZ000-OKZ000-120315- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0245 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0748 PM CST SAT MAR 11 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...NERN TX...SERN OK THROUGH W CNTRL AR CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 120148Z - 120315Z RADAR TRENDS HAVE SHOWN A RECENT INCREASE IN SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS SERN OK AND NERN TX. CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH THAT THE ENVIRONMENT CAN SUPPORT PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION IN THIS AREA. HOWEVER...IF THIS ACTIVITY BEGINS TO INTENSIFY...A WW MIGHT BE NEEDED FROM PARTS OF EXTREME NERN TX...SERN OK INTO W CNTRL AR. LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS EVIDENCE OF AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY OVER NERN OK THAT EXTENDS WWD AND INTERSECTS A DRYLINE OVER E CNTRL OK. THE SLY LOW LEVEL JET WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN THIS EVENING FROM ERN TX INTO SERN OK AND AR. THE STRONGEST LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE WILL LIKELY REMAIN ALONG AND N OF THE E-W ORIENTED OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ACROSS NERN OK INTO NWRN AR. HOWEVER...SOME INCREASE IN ASCENT AND WARM ADVECTION IS ALSO LIKELY FARTHER SWD. THE 00Z RAOB AND RUC SOUNDING DATA SHOW PRESENCE OF A MID LEVEL INVERSION BETWEEN 2.5 AND 3 KM. THE CONVECTION CURRENTLY DEVELOPING FROM NERN TX INTO SERN OK IS LIKELY SHALLOW AND MAY STRUGGLE TO DEEPEN THROUGH THE INVERSION. THIS LOWERS CONFIDENCE IN THE SEVERE THREAT. HOWEVER...IF TRENDS SUGGEST DEEP CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP OR IS IMMINENT...A WW WILL PROBABLY BE NEEDED. STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR FROM THE BOUNDARY LAYER THROUGH 6 KM WILL SUPPORT SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING PRIMARILY LARGE HAIL WITH ANY STORM THAT INITIATES WITHIN THE MODERATELY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT. ..DIAL.. 03/12/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LZK...SHV...TSA...FWD... 33319452 33319568 35089532 35299473 35509402 34259396 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun Mar 12 02:05:24 2006 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Sat, 11 Mar 2006 21:05:24 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <20060312020736.3270CD4932@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 120206 SWOMCD SPC MCD 120206 INZ000-ILZ000-120330- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0246 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0806 PM CST SAT MAR 11 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL/EASTERN IL INTO WESTERN INDIANA CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 63... VALID 120206Z - 120330Z VALID PORTION OF TORNADO WATCH 63...NAMELY THE ORIGINAL EASTERN/SOUTHERN PORTIONS...CONTINUES UNTIL 04Z. AN ADDITIONAL WATCH ISSUANCE INTO INDIANA IS NOT CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED...HOWEVER WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR CONVECTIVE TRENDS. RELATIVELY ORGANIZED STRONG/OCCASIONALLY SEVERE MCS WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH EASTWARD ACROSS EAST CENTRAL/SOUTH CENTRAL IL OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. CIRCULATION/VORTEX EVIDENT IN RADAR IMAGERY NEAR THE PONTIAC/BLOOMINGTON IL AREAS AS OF 02Z...WITH REMAINING PORTION OF MCS EXTENDING ALONG A BLOOMINGTON-TAYLORVILLE-TO NEAR ST LOUIS AXIS. POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS VIA THIS MCS...IN ADDITION TO THE POSSIBILITY FOR LARGE HAIL...WILL CONTINUE IN THE SHORT TERM. WITH EASTWARD EXTENT...WARM FRONT ACROSS IL HAS STRUGGLED TO DEVELOP EASTWARD EARLY THIS EVENING. WITH A RATHER STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER TO LINGER FROM FAR EASTERN IL INTO INDIANA...IT APPEARS AN ADDITIONAL WATCH ISSUANCE MAY NOT BE NEEDED EAST OF WW 63...WITH A DIMINISHING SEVERE THREAT EXPECTED. ..GUYER.. 03/12/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...IWX...IND...LOT...ILX...LSX... 41478830 41278697 40458675 39388700 38708803 38708834 38738936 38898977 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun Mar 12 03:10:24 2006 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Sat, 11 Mar 2006 22:10:24 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <20060312031236.50D39D4975@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 120311 SWOMCD SPC MCD 120311 INZ000-KYZ000-ILZ000-MOZ000-120445- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0247 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0911 PM CST SAT MAR 11 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...SRN THROUGH E CNTRL IL AND EXTREME WRN IND CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 120311Z - 120445Z SEVERE THREAT MAY DEVELOP EWD INTO SRN AND E CNTRL IL BY 04Z. SUPERCELLS AND LINES WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREATS...BUT ISOLATED TORNADOES MAY ALSO BE POSSIBLE. AREA WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED...AND A WW MAY BE NEEDED IF TRENDS SUGGEST STORMS WILL MAINTAIN THEIR INTENSITY AS THEY DEVELOP EWD. AN AREA OF SCATTERED SUPERCELLS EXTENDS FROM SERN MO SWWD THROUGH SWRN MO AND NWRN AR. LEAD SUPERCELL CURRENTLY OVER EXTREME SERN MO IN MADISON AND PERRY COUNTY WILL MOVE OUT OF WW 62 BY 04Z IF IT SURVIVES BEYOND THIS TIME. HOWEVER...THIS STORMS HAS RECENTLY SHOWN A WEAKENING TREND. SQUALL LINE ALSO CONTINUES OVER ERN IL. THE BOUNDARY LAYER IS LESS UNSTABLE WITH EWD EXTENT INTO IL/IND AND IS IN THE PROCESS OF DECOUPLING WHICH COULD POSE SOME LIMITING FACTORS. HOWEVER...STRONG SSWLY LOW LEVEL JET WILL MAINTAIN FEED OF HIGHER THETA-E AIR AND SUPPORT SOME NEWD DESTABILIZATION... ESPECIALLY ABOVE THE SURFACE LAYER. STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR WILL CONTINUE TO PROMOTE ORGANIZED STORMS INCLUDING SUPERCELLS AND LINES WITH LEWP/BOW STRUCTURES. TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE WW ISSUANCE. ..DIAL.. 03/12/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...IND...PAH...ILX...LSX... 37468968 39608826 39948693 37928771 37058916 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun Mar 12 04:49:07 2006 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Sat, 11 Mar 2006 23:49:07 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <20060312045118.4BF76D46B5@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 120450 SWOMCD SPC MCD 120450 INZ000-KYZ000-ILZ000-120545- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0248 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1050 PM CST SAT MAR 11 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...SERN IL INTO SRN IND CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 120450Z - 120545Z CLUSTER OF SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND TORNADOES MAY PERSIST INTO SRN IND. A WW MAY BE NEEDED FOR THIS AREA SHORTLY. STRONG LOW LEVEL JET WILL CONTINUE TO RESULT IN NEWD DESTABILIZATION WITH TIME INTO SRN IND AS WARM FRONT SHIFTS NEWD. STRONG LOW LEVEL AND VERTICAL SHEAR WILL MAINTAIN THREAT FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES. ..DIAL.. 03/12/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LMK...IND...PAH... 37648821 38528794 38598650 38118628 37638726 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun Mar 12 09:37:47 2006 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Sun, 12 Mar 2006 04:37:47 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <20060312093958.545A2D4961@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 120939 SWOMCD SPC MCD 120939 KYZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-TNZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-121115- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0250 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0339 AM CST SUN MAR 12 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...SRN MO / NRN AR / SRN IL / SWRN IND / WRN KY CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 68... VALID 120939Z - 121115Z THROUGH 11-12Z THE GREATEST THREAT FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL EXIST ALONG OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM APPROXIMATELY 20 NW POF TO S OF EVV. ELSEWHERE...ISOLATED LARGE HAIL WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE WITH STRONGEST STORMS. AS OF 0925Z...REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY INDICATED A QUASI-LINEAR CONVECTIVE SYSTEM EXTENDING FROM NERN OH SWWD INTO SRN MO WITH A GENERAL ENEWD CELL MOTION. WITHIN THE PAST HALF HOUR...TSTM OVER SERN MO /WAYNE CO/ HAS INTENSIFIED WHILE MOVING 255/35-40 KTS. MESOANALYSIS AND RUC OBJECTIVE FIELDS INDICATE THAT DOWNSTREAM ENVIRONMENT OVER FAR SERN MO...FAR SRN IL INTO WRN KY REMAINS QUITE FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS AND ISOLATED TORNADOES WITH MLCAPES OF 1000 J/KG...50-60 KTS OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND 200-300 M2/S2 0-1 KM SRH. ELSEWHERE...MERGING OUTFLOWS HAVE RESULTED IN A CONSOLIDATED TRAINING LINE OF TSTMS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL WITH HOURLY RATES OF 1-1.5 INCHES. IT APPEARS THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED LARGE HAIL EXIST ACROSS WRN PORTIONS OF WW AREA /NAMELY SWRN MO/ WHERE STRONG WAA IS ONGOING IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO PRIMARY LOW-LEVEL INSTABILITY AXIS SITUATED OVER OK AND N TX. ..MEAD.. 03/12/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LMK...OHX...IND...PAH...ILX...MEG...LSX...LZK...SGF...TSA... 37309471 39008655 36838648 35069475 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun Mar 12 10:31:19 2006 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Sun, 12 Mar 2006 05:31:19 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <20060312103330.7B955D4712@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 121032 SWOMCD SPC MCD 121032 KSZ000-OKZ000-121200- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0251 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0432 AM CST SUN MAR 12 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL AND ERN KS CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 121032Z - 121200Z POTENTIAL FOR A FEW SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF MAINLY LARGE HAIL IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE THIS MORNING. CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE WW. 10Z MESOANALYSIS INDICATED LOW PRESSURE OVER SERN CO WITH AN ATTENDANT WARM FRONT EXTENDING ESEWD ACROSS NRN OK INTO NRN AR. STRONG LOW-LEVEL MASS RESPONSE TO FALLING HEIGHTS AND PRESSURES OVER THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS IS RESULTING IN THE BACKING AND INTENSIFICATION OF NOCTURNAL LLJ FROM OK INTO CNTRL AND WRN KS. THIS PROCESS IS EFFECTIVELY ENHANCING THE TRANSPORT OF A MOIST LOW-LEVEL AIR MASS /I.E. AROUND 850 MB/ BENEATH STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF 7-8 C/KM. THIS DESTABILIZATION /CURRENTLY THE STRONGEST OVER S-CNTRL AND SERN KS WHERE MUCAPES ARE INCREASING TO 1000-1500 J/KG/ IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP NWD THROUGH CNTRL AND ERN KS THIS MORNING. REGIONAL RADAR AND IR SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATE COOLING CLOUD TOPS AND AN ISOLATED CONVECTIVE INITIATION OVER N-CNTRL OK/S-CNTRL KS...AND LATEST SHORT-TERM GUIDANCE FROM THE RUC AND GFS SUGGEST ELEVATED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY LIKELY THROUGH 12Z. GIVEN THE STEEP LAPSE RATES AND 50-60 KTS OF EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR...POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR ORGANIZED/ROTATING UPDRAFTS WITH THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER THREAT BEING LARGE HAIL. ..MEAD.. 03/12/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...SGF...EAX...TSA...TOP...ICT...GID...DDC... 37049790 37629848 38269868 39199804 39519687 39149551 37939472 37289488 36989618 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun Mar 12 12:53:25 2006 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Sun, 12 Mar 2006 07:53:25 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <20060312125545.6A6E2D4249@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 121254 SWOMCD SPC MCD 121254 KYZ000-INZ000-TNZ000-ILZ000-121430- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0252 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0654 AM CST SUN MAR 12 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...WRN AND CNTRL KY CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 68... VALID 121254Z - 121430Z POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS AND PERHAPS A TORNADO IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THIS MORNING ACROSS PORTIONS OF WRN AND PERHAPS INTO CNTRL KY. CONVECTIVE TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE WW. AS OF 1245Z...REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY INDICATED A FAIRLY LONG LIVED INFLECTION OR BOWING PORTION OF ENE-WSW ORIENTED CONVECTIVE LINE JUST S OF THE OH RIVER OVER WEBSTER...CRITTENDEN AND LIVINGSTON COUNTIES IN WRN KY MOVING APPROXIMATELY 270/40 KTS. THIS BOWING FEATURE HAS A HISTORY OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS EARLIER OVER FAR SRN IL. MODIFICATION OF 12Z BNA SOUNDING FOR PROXIMITY INFLOW AIR MASS /I.E. BWG/ INDICATES A WEAKLY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR SURFACE-BASED PARCELS WITH SBCAPES OF 800-1000 J/KG. HOWEVER...THIS SOUNDING AND LOCAL VWPS CONTINUE TO INDICATE RATHER STRONG LOW AND DEEP-LAYER SHEAR ACROSS REGION WITH 0-1 KM SRH OF 250-350 M2/S2 AND 0-6 KM SHEAR VALUES OF 40-50 KTS...RESPECTIVELY. GIVEN THAT AIR MASS SHOULD FURTHER DESTABILIZE THROUGH THE MORNING OWING TO INCREASED DIABATIC HEATING...IT APPEARS THAT SOME POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS AND PERHAPS A TORNADO MAY DEVELOP INTO CNTRL KY. ..MEAD.. 03/12/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LMK...OHX...PAH... 36708808 37178841 37818802 38188688 37788552 37388491 36868526 36628670 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun Mar 12 12:53:25 2006 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Sun, 12 Mar 2006 07:53:25 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <20060312125647.99810D4249@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 121254 SWOMCD SPC MCD 121254 KYZ000-INZ000-TNZ000-ILZ000-121430- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0252 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0654 AM CST SUN MAR 12 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...WRN AND CNTRL KY CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 68... VALID 121254Z - 121430Z POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS AND PERHAPS A TORNADO IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THIS MORNING ACROSS PORTIONS OF WRN AND PERHAPS INTO CNTRL KY. CONVECTIVE TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE WW. AS OF 1245Z...REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY INDICATED A FAIRLY LONG LIVED INFLECTION OR BOWING PORTION OF ENE-WSW ORIENTED CONVECTIVE LINE JUST S OF THE OH RIVER OVER WEBSTER...CRITTENDEN AND LIVINGSTON COUNTIES IN WRN KY MOVING APPROXIMATELY 270/40 KTS. THIS BOWING FEATURE HAS A HISTORY OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS EARLIER OVER FAR SRN IL. MODIFICATION OF 12Z BNA SOUNDING FOR PROXIMITY INFLOW AIR MASS /I.E. BWG/ INDICATES A WEAKLY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR SURFACE-BASED PARCELS WITH SBCAPES OF 800-1000 J/KG. HOWEVER...THIS SOUNDING AND LOCAL VWPS CONTINUE TO INDICATE RATHER STRONG LOW AND DEEP-LAYER SHEAR ACROSS REGION WITH 0-1 KM SRH OF 250-350 M2/S2 AND 0-6 KM SHEAR VALUES OF 40-50 KTS...RESPECTIVELY. GIVEN THAT AIR MASS SHOULD FURTHER DESTABILIZE THROUGH THE MORNING OWING TO INCREASED DIABATIC HEATING...IT APPEARS THAT SOME POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS AND PERHAPS A TORNADO MAY DEVELOP INTO CNTRL KY. ..MEAD.. 03/12/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LMK...OHX...PAH... 36708808 37178841 37818802 38188688 37788552 37388491 36868526 36628670 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun Mar 12 13:08:10 2006 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Sun, 12 Mar 2006 08:08:10 -0500 Subject: [MCD] {Spam?} SWOMCD Message-ID: <20060312131021.21B03D43A2@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 121309 SWOMCD SPC MCD 121309 MOZ000-KSZ000-IAZ000-NEZ000-121445- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0253 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0709 AM CST SUN MAR 12 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...FAR NERN KS / SERN NEB / NWRN MO CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 121309Z - 121445Z POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED LARGE HAIL IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP N OF WW 69 BY 14Z...AND A WW MAY BECOME NECESSARY. AS OF 13Z...REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY SHOWED A CLUSTER OF ELEVATED TSTMS OVER THE NERN QUARTER OF KS MOVING 215/40 KTS. SEVERAL REPORTS OF LARGE HAIL HAVE BEEN RECEIVED WITH THESE STORMS OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS. WHILE 12Z TOP SOUNDING INDICATED ONLY A MARGINALLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS /I.E. MUCAPES OF 500-700 J/KG/ FOR A PARCEL BASED AROUND 850 MB...ENHANCED LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN ABOVE NEAR SURFACE INVERSION WILL LIKELY CONTRIBUTE TO FURTHER DESTABILIZATION WITH TIME. THEREFORE...EXPECT THESE ELEVATED STORMS TO CONTINUE TO MOVE AND/OR DEVELOP NEWD INTO PORTIONS OF SERN NEB AND PERHAPS NWRN MO THIS MORNING WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL. ..MEAD.. 03/12/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...EAX...OAX...TOP...GID... 39659906 40279930 40659879 40749654 40619512 40249436 39309387 38789414 38769494 38839513 39589510 39639732 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun Mar 12 16:48:52 2006 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Sun, 12 Mar 2006 11:48:52 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <20060312165104.1ECFAD496F@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 121650 SWOMCD SPC MCD 121650 MNZ000-SDZ000-122115- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0254 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1050 AM CST SUN MAR 12 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL/SOUTHERN SD INTO SOUTHWEST MN CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW VALID 121650Z - 122115Z SNOW IS EXPECTED TO STEADILY INCREASE/DEVELOP EASTWARD ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN SD...AND EVENTUALLY SOUTHWEST MN...THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. SNOW RATES OF 1-2 IN/HR WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE HEAVIEST BANDS. WITH SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS ONGOING ACROSS EASTERN CO AND LEADING SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING OUT OF THE CENTRAL ROCKIES PER WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...EXIT REGION OF SOUTHERN ROCKIES/CENTRAL PLAINS UPPER JET AND ONGOING WAA REGIME CONTRIBUTING TO STRONG UVVS ACROSS SD. SIMILAR TO TRENDS ALREADY OBSERVED IN VOLUMETRIC RADAR DATA ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL SD...STRONG MID LEVEL /600-800 MB/ FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING IN ADDITION TO MODEST POTENTIAL INSTABILITY WILL PROMOTE WSW-ENE BANDS OF HEAVY SNOW THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THIS BANDING TENDENCY AND STRONG UVVS COINCIDENT WITH A DEEPLY SATURATED DENDRITIC LAYER WILL PROMOTE POTENTIAL FOR 1-2 IN/HR SNOW RATES. TRENDS/SHORT TERM WRF GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE HEAVIEST SNOW WILL LIKELY OCCUR ACROSS CENTRAL/SOUTHERN SD GENERALLY ALONG AND JUST NORTH OF I-90...AND INTO SOUTHWEST MN BY EARLY THIS EVENING. ..GUYER.. 03/12/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MPX...FSD...ABR...UNR... 44640284 44930081 45449797 45439609 44519587 44259620 43549785 43190036 43140140 43230230 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun Mar 12 17:15:46 2006 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Sun, 12 Mar 2006 12:15:46 -0500 Subject: [MCD] {Spam?} SWOMCD Message-ID: <20060312171755.2A60DD4968@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 121717 SWOMCD SPC MCD 121717 ILZ000-MOZ000-IAZ000-121845- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0255 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1117 AM CST SUN MAR 12 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...NORTHERN MO/CENTRAL IL CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 72... VALID 121717Z - 121845Z SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 72 CONTINUES UNTIL 21Z FOR NORTHERN MO INTO WEST CENTRAL IL. AN ADDITIONAL WATCH EASTWARD INTO CENTRAL IL MAY BE NEEDED SOON. ONGOING SEVERE THREAT PERSISTS ACROSS WW 72...WITH EASTERN EXTENT HIGHLIGHTED BY SUPERCELL WITH TORNADIC HISTORY ONGOING ACROSS MONROE/SHELBY COUNTIES OF NORTHEAST MO AS OF 1715Z. THIS ACTIVITY APPEARS TO BE FOCUSED ALONG SECONDARY/NORTHERN WEAK BAROCLINIC ZONE DRAPED ACROSS NORTHEAST MO INTO CENTRAL IL. ALTHOUGH THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES WOULD INITIALLY APPEAR HOSTILE TO SURFACE BASED CONVECTION...ORGANIZATION OF ONGOING STORM/S AND MODEST DOWNSTREAM HEATING/INFLUX OF PROGRESSIVELY MORE UNSTABLE AIRMASS MAY REQUIRE AN ADDITIONAL WATCH ISSUANCE SOON INTO CENTRAL IL. ..GUYER.. 03/12/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LOT...ILX...LSX...DVN...EAX... 40429338 40779012 40768822 39738789 39048808 38839071 38899240 38979297 39409332 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun Mar 12 17:27:53 2006 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Sun, 12 Mar 2006 12:27:53 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <20060312173001.84AE9D43A2@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 121729 SWOMCD SPC MCD 121729 ARZ000-MOZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-121930- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0256 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1129 AM CST SUN MAR 12 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN KS...ERN OK...SW MO CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 121729Z - 121930Z SUPERCELLS WILL LIKELY INITIATE THIS AFTERNOON ALONG A DRYLINE FROM ERN KS TO CNTRL OK. DAMAGING TORNADOES...VERY LARGE HAIL AND WIND DAMAGE WILL BE LIKELY AS STORMS INITIATE AND TRACK ENEWD ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. A TORNADO WATCH WILL BE ISSUED SHORTLY. SFC ANALYSIS CURRENTLY SHOWS A DRYLINE ORIENTED FROM NORTH TO SOUTH FROM SCNTRL KS TO SOUTHWEST OK. SFC DEWPOINTS EAST OF THE DRYLINE ARE IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S F WHERE MODERATE INSTABILITY IS PRESENT. THE CAPPING INVERSION IS VERY WEAK AND STORMS SHOULD INITIATE AS LARGE-SCALE ASCENT INCREASES AS A 100 KT MID-LEVEL JET MAX NOSES INTO THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. SUPERCELLS WILL BE LIKELY DUE TO THE MODERATE INSTABILITY AND STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR. IN ADDITION...STRONG LOW-LEVEL SHEAR EVIDENT ON REGIONAL PROFILERS WILL CREATE AN ENVIRONMENT FAVORABLE FOR TORNADOES. LONG TRACK STRONG TO VIOLENT TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH LONG-LIVED SUPERCELLS THAT DEVELOP AND TRACK ENEWD ACROSS ERN OK AND ERN KS LATE THIS AFTERNOON. STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR VERY LARGE HAIL WITH WIND DAMAGE ALSO LIKELY WITH THE STRONGER STORMS ..BROYLES.. 03/12/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...SGF...SHV...EAX...TSA...TOP...ICT...OUN... 34439643 34679715 35169733 35459726 36429707 37439711 38359715 38599644 38669508 38269445 36769432 35189450 34489487 34449552 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun Mar 12 18:10:07 2006 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Sun, 12 Mar 2006 13:10:07 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <20060312181215.734C0D4249@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 121811 SWOMCD SPC MCD 121810 IAZ000-121945- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0257 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1210 PM CST SUN MAR 12 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTHERN/CENTRAL IA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 121810Z - 121945Z SEVERE THREAT MAY INCREASE THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON ACROSS SOUTHERN/CENTRAL IA...WITH PRIMARY HAZARD OF LARGE HAIL. WILL MONITOR FOR A POSSIBLE WATCH. STRONG/SEVERE STORMS ONGOING AT MIDDAY ACROSS MUCH OF NORTHERN MO...WITH THIS ACTIVITY LIKELY TO CONTINUE TO SPREAD NORTHEASTWARD WITH ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT ACROSS SOUTHERN/CENTRAL IA THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. CURRENTLY WELL NORTH OF SURFACE WARM FRONT ACROSS MO...STRONG LOW LEVEL JET/WARM CONVEYOR WILL CONTINUE TO TRANSPORT AN ELEVATED UNSTABLE AIRMASS NORTHWARD ABOVE A COOL BOUNDARY LAYER. STRONG CLOUD BEARING SHEAR AND STEEP LAPSE RATES WITH POTENTIAL FOR 750-1000 J/KG MUCAPE WILL PROMOTE A LARGE HAIL THREAT. ..GUYER.. 03/12/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...DVN...DMX...OAX... 40669370 40769555 41369566 42109339 41869158 40789129 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun Mar 12 19:01:51 2006 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Sun, 12 Mar 2006 14:01:51 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <20060312190359.A1C80D4968@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 121903 SWOMCD SPC MCD 121902 KYZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-122030- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0258 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0102 PM CST SUN MAR 12 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...WRN KY...SRN IL...SRN IND CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 121902Z - 122030Z SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT APPEARS LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE REGION. HAIL AND ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE WOULD BE THE MOST LIKELY THREATS. HOWEVER...AN ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT WOULD ALSO BE POSSIBLE WITH SUPERCELLS THAT INITIATE. A WW MAY BECOME NECESSARY WITHIN 1 TO 2 HOURS. SFC ANALYSIS CURRENTLY SHOWS A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY ORIENTED WSW TO ENE ACROSS SRN IL INTO CNTRL IND. A LINE OF MORNING STORMS FORMED ALONG THE BOUNDARY AND MOVED SWD INTO WRN KY SPREADING A COLD POOL ACROSS THE AREA. HOWEVER...VISIBLE SATELLITE SHOWS CLEARING ACROSS PARTS OF WRN KY OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS. THIS SHOULD ALLOW SFC TEMPS TO WARM THIS AFTERNOON INCREASING THE INSTABILITY AND ALLOWING NEW THUNDERSTORMS TO INITIATE. IF STORMS INITIATE...88D VWPS SUGGEST ENOUGH VERTICAL SHEAR IS IN PLACE FOR ORGANIZED MULTICELLS AND ISOLATED SUPERCELLS. HAIL...WIND DAMAGE AND AN ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER STORMS. ..BROYLES.. 03/12/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LMK...IND...PAH... 38448671 38278570 37898542 37408544 37068568 37058585 36988693 37018723 37198866 37438891 37798899 38128886 38378866 38538816 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun Mar 12 19:27:44 2006 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Sun, 12 Mar 2006 14:27:44 -0500 Subject: [MCD] {Spam?} SWOMCD Message-ID: <20060312192952.85C7FD4249@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 121929 SWOMCD SPC MCD 121929 MOZ000-KSZ000-122100- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0259 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0129 PM CST SUN MAR 12 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...EASTERN KS/MUCH OF MO INTO WESTERN/CENTRAL IL CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 73... VALID 121929Z - 122100Z PDS TORNADO WATCH 73 CONTINUES UNTIL 04Z...WITH SIGNIFICANT SEVERE THREAT OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS ESPECIALLY ACROSS EASTERN KS/WESTERN MO...INCLUDING THE KC METRO AREA. SPECIFICALLY REGARDING THE WESTERN PORTION OF TORNADO WATCH 73 ACROSS EASTERN KS/WESTERN MO...SCATTERED SUPERCELLS /ALREADY POTENTIALLY TORNADIC/ CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS EASTERN KS AND MOVE ENE...ALONG A OTTAWA-CHANUTE-INDEPENDENCE CORRIDOR AS OF 1930Z. SURFACE MESOANALYSIS/VIS SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICT WARM FRONT STEADILY LIFTING NORTHWARD ACROSS NORTHEAST KS/KC METRO AREA AND CENTRAL MO. ALONG/SOUTH OF THE WARM FRONT...AMBIENT WARM SECTOR IS CHARACTERIZED BY A RATHER FAVORABLE COMBINATION OF STRONG INSTABILITY/VERTICAL SHEAR FOR A SIGNIFICANT SEVERE THREAT... REFERENCE 18Z SPRINGFIELD MO OBSERVED RAOB. POTENTIAL FOR SUPERCELLS PRODUCING VERY LARGE HAIL/POSSIBLY SIGNIFICANT TORNADOES WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN THE SHORT TERM FROM FAR EASTERN KS INTO WESTERN MO...INCLUDING THE GREATER KANSAS CITY METRO AREA SOUTHWARD TO THE JOPLIN VICINITY. ..GUYER.. 03/12/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LSX...SGF...EAX...TOP...ICT... 38559621 39889540 39699145 37729061 37219446 37239599 37739631 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun Mar 12 20:32:41 2006 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Sun, 12 Mar 2006 15:32:41 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <20060312203449.1CDEED47F7@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 122033 SWOMCD SPC MCD 122033 ILZ000-IAZ000-122200- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0260 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0233 PM CST SUN MAR 12 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTHEAST IA INTO NORTHERN IL CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 122033Z - 122200Z ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT MAY DEVELOP INTO NORTHERN IL OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...WITH A PRIMARY HAZARD OF POTENTIALLY SEVERE HAIL THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH NOT CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED...WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR A POSSIBLE WATCH FROM SOUTHERN IA INTO NORTHERN IL. STRONG/OCCASIONALLY SEVERE STORMS-- WITH PRIOR HISTORY OF HAIL AND STRONG WINDS -- CONTINUES TO MOVE ENE ACROSS SOUTHEAST IA /SOUTHWEST OF THE QUAD CITIES/ AS OF 2030Z. ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT HAS ALSO RECENTLY OCCURRED NEAR THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. WHILE BOUNDARY LAYER REMAINS COOL/WELL STABILIZED ACROSS NORTHERN IL NORTH OF WARM FRONT...INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE ELEVATED AIRMASS WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT TOWARD THE REGION...WITH MODEST LAPSE RATES/MARGINAL ELEVATED INSTABILITY SUPPORTING HAIL POTENTIAL. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR TRENDS...BUT A GREATER SEVERE THREAT WILL LIKELY EXIST LATER THIS EVENING. ..GUYER.. 03/12/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LOT...ILX...DVN... 40849186 41329210 42139125 42158906 42128867 42028841 41538826 41158833 40948961 40799097 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun Mar 12 21:01:58 2006 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Sun, 12 Mar 2006 16:01:58 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <20060312210407.5DB7CD4249@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 122102 SWOMCD SPC MCD 122102 ILZ000-MOZ000-KSZ000-122230- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0261 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0302 PM CST SUN MAR 12 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...EASTERN KS/MUCH OF MO INTO WESTERN/CENTRAL IL CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 73... VALID 122102Z - 122230Z PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS TORNADO WATCH #73 CONTINUES ACROSS EASTERN KS/MUCH OF MO INTO WESTERN/CENTRAL IL THROUGH 04Z...WITH PRIMARY THREAT FOR TORNADOES/VERY LARGE HAIL SPREADING INTO WEST CENTRAL MO AT MID AFTERNOON. PRONOUNCED/DISTINCT SUPERCELLS ONGOING EAST/SOUTHEAST OF THE KC METRO AREA AT THIS TIME...FROM RAY COUNTY MO TO BATES/HENRY COUNTIES MO AT 21Z. MESOANALYSIS/SATELLITE TRENDS CONTINUE TO PORTRAY WARM FRONT STEADILY LIFTING NORTHWARD ACROSS NORTHEAST KS AND NORTH CENTRAL MO. AS IT DOES...NEAR STORM ENVIRONMENT ALONG/SOUTH OF THE WARM FRONT IN MO REMAINS VERY FAVORABLE FOR ROTATING STORMS...POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT TORNADOES...AND DESTRUCTIVE HAIL. AN ENHANCED/PROLONGED TORNADIC THREAT MAY EXIST IN VICINITY OF THIS WEST-EAST ORIENTED WARM FRONT -- LOCATED FROM THE KC METRO AREA TO NEAR COLUMBIA MO AT 21Z. OTHERWISE...ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT APPEARS LIKELY LATE THIS AFTERNOON ALONG THE DRYLINE IN VICINITY OF AGITATED CU FIELD ACROSS SOUTHEAST KS. ..GUYER.. 03/12/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...ILX...LSX...DVN...SGF...EAX...TOP...ICT... 37159616 39199552 40199392 40329135 39768973 38758950 38208980 37629123 37239374 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun Mar 12 21:37:28 2006 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Sun, 12 Mar 2006 16:37:28 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <20060312213937.DA5ADD47F7@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 122138 SWOMCD SPC MCD 122138 ARZ000-MOZ000-TXZ000-OKZ000-122345- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0262 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0338 PM CST SUN MAR 12 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN OK...WRN AR AND FAR NE TX CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 74... VALID 122138Z - 122345Z SUPERCELLS ARE EXPECTED TO INITIATE AND TRACK ENEWD ACROSS ERN OK INTO WRN AR LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THE INITIATION OF ISOLATED SUPERCELLS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE IN FAR NE TX BY EARLY EVENING. VERY LARGE HAIL AND WIND DAMAGE WILL BE LIKELY SHORTLY AFTER INITIATION WITH SIGNIFICANT TORNADOES POSSIBLE. A NEW TORNADO WATCH MAY BECOME NECESSARY SOUTH OF TORNADO WATCH 74 ACROSS SE OK AND NE TX LATE THIS AFTERNOON OR EARLY THIS EVENING. SFC ANALYSIS CURRENTLY SHOWS A DRYLINE EXTENDING SSWWD ACROSS CNTRL OK INTO NCNTRL TX. OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS SHOWS A MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIRMASS EAST OF THE DRYLINE WITH STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR IN PLACE WHICH WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS UPON INITIATION. MODERATE CUMULUS IS EVIDENT ON VISIBLE IMAGERY JUST SOUTHEAST OF THE OKC METRO WITH OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS SHOWING THE CAPPING INVERSION GONE ACROSS ECNTRL OK. AS LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE CONTINUES TO INCREASE ALONG THE DRYLINE AND LARGE-SCALE ASCENT SPREADS NEWD AHEAD OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...RAPID SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT APPEARS LIKELY BETWEEN 22Z AND 00Z. THE MOST LIKELY AREA FOR INITIATION WOULD BE EAST TO SOUTHEAST OF THE OKC METRO AREA WHERE THE CUMULUS FIELD APPEARS A BIT AGITATED. ADDITIONAL STORMS SHOULD DEVELOP SWD INTO FAR NE TX AS THE CAP WEAKENS SOUTH OF THE RED RIVER BY EARLY THIS EVENING. STRONG LOW-LEVEL SHEAR COMBINED WITH LOW LCL HEIGHTS WILL MAKE TORNADOES LIKELY WITH THE STRONGER SUPERCELLS THAT DEVELOP. SIGNIFICANT TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH VERY LARGE HAIL AND WIND DAMAGE LIKELY. ..BROYLES.. 03/12/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LZK...SGF...SHV...TSA...FWD...OUN... 36679381 35949367 34779403 33689445 33039526 32999592 33089650 33309730 34049729 35079700 36379655 36869611 36979507 36789427 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun Mar 12 22:20:55 2006 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Sun, 12 Mar 2006 17:20:55 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <20060312222304.1507BD4961@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 122222 SWOMCD SPC MCD 122222 INZ000-ILZ000-IAZ000-122315- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0263 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0422 PM CST SUN MAR 12 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTHEAST IA/NORTHERN IL INTO NORTHWEST INDIANA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 122222Z - 122315Z SEVERE THREAT TO STEADILY INCREASE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING ACROSS SOUTHEAST IA/NORTHERN IL INTO NORTHWEST INDIANA...A WATCH APPEARS LIKELY SOON. AIRMASS CONTINUES TO QUICKLY DESTABILIZE ACROSS THE REGION ALONG/NORTH OF WARM FRONT ACROSS CENTRAL PORTIONS OF MO/IL. SEVERE THREAT LIKELY TO INCREASE STEADILY INTO THE EVENING...WITH INITIAL PRIMARY POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL THIS AFTERNOON...AND AN INCREASING TORNADO/DAMAGING WIND THREAT THIS EVENING. ..GUYER.. 03/12/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...IWX...LOT...ILX...DVN...DMX... 41819210 42238989 42078826 41538670 41098686 40808868 40779028 40689215 41119260 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun Mar 12 23:01:44 2006 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Sun, 12 Mar 2006 18:01:44 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <20060312230352.71C6DD4249@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 122303 SWOMCD SPC MCD 122302 INZ000-ILZ000-IAZ000-130030- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0264 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0502 PM CST SUN MAR 12 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...EASTERN KS/MUCH OF MO INTO WESTERN/CENTRAL IL CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 73... VALID 122302Z - 130030Z TORNADO WATCH 73 CONTINUES UNTIL 04Z FROM FAR EASTERN KS INTO WESTERN/CENTRAL IL. ENHANCED POTENTIAL FOR DESTRUCTIVE TORNADOES/VERY LARGE HAIL IS SHIFTING EAST ACROSS EAST CENTRAL MO INTO WEST CENTRAL IL /POTENTIALLY NEAR THE ST LOUIS METRO/ EARLY THIS EVENING. FURTHER WEST...ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT IS ANTICIPATED ALONG THE DRYLINE IN SOUTHEAST KS. THERE APPEARS TO BE ENHANCED POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT TORNADOES/DESTRUCTIVE HAIL ACROSS EAST CENTRAL MO INTO WEST CENTRAL IL THROUGH AT LEAST 02Z...POTENTIALLY NEAR/JUST NORTH OF THE ST LOUIS METRO AREA. SUPERCELLS WITH TORNADIC HISTORY ARE CURRENTLY MOVING ENE ALONG/JUST NORTH OF I-70 NEAR COLUMBIA MO. THESE STORMS ARE LIKELY TO CONTINUE TO RIDE THE ROUGHLY WEST-EAST ORIENTED BAROCLINIC ZONE ACROSS CENTRAL MO INTO CENTRAL IL AS DELINEATED VIA SURFACE MESOANALYSIS/VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY. THESE STORMS SHOULD REACH THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER AROUND 0030Z. FURTHER WEST...INCREASING STORM COVERAGE IS ANTICIPATED ACROSS SOUTHEAST KS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...LEADING TO A RENEWED THREAT FOR TORNADOES/VERY LARGE HAIL THIS EVENING INTO WESTERN MO. CU FIELD REMAINS AGGRESSIVE ACROSS SOUTHEAST KS AMIDST NEGLIGIBLE CINH PER ADJUSTED RUC SOUNDINGS. ..GUYER.. 03/12/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...IWX...LOT...ILX...DVN...DMX... 41819210 42238989 42078826 41538670 41098686 40808868 40779028 40689215 41119260 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun Mar 12 23:06:08 2006 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Sun, 12 Mar 2006 18:06:08 -0500 Subject: [MCD] {Spam?} SWOMCD Message-ID: <20060312230821.B08C5D43A2@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 122306 SWOMCD SPC MCD 122306 COR ILZ000-MOZ000-IAZ000-KSZ000-130030- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0264 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0506 PM CST SUN MAR 12 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...EASTERN KS/MUCH OF MO INTO WESTERN/CENTRAL IL CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 73... VALID 122306Z - 130030Z CORRECTED FOR MCD GRAPHIC TORNADO WATCH 73 CONTINUES UNTIL 04Z FROM FAR EASTERN KS INTO WESTERN/CENTRAL IL. ENHANCED POTENTIAL FOR DESTRUCTIVE TORNADOES/VERY LARGE HAIL IS SHIFTING EAST ACROSS EAST CENTRAL MO INTO WEST CENTRAL IL /POTENTIALLY NEAR THE ST LOUIS METRO/ EARLY THIS EVENING. FURTHER WEST...ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT IS ANTICIPATED ALONG THE DRYLINE IN SOUTHEAST KS. THERE APPEARS TO BE ENHANCED POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT TORNADOES/DESTRUCTIVE HAIL ACROSS EAST CENTRAL MO INTO WEST CENTRAL IL THROUGH AT LEAST 02Z...POTENTIALLY NEAR/JUST NORTH OF THE ST LOUIS METRO AREA. SUPERCELLS WITH TORNADIC HISTORY ARE CURRENTLY MOVING ENE ALONG/JUST NORTH OF I-70 NEAR COLUMBIA MO. THESE STORMS ARE LIKELY TO CONTINUE TO RIDE THE ROUGHLY WEST-EAST ORIENTED BAROCLINIC ZONE ACROSS CENTRAL MO INTO CENTRAL IL AS DELINEATED VIA SURFACE MESOANALYSIS/VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY. THESE STORMS SHOULD REACH THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER AROUND 0030Z. FURTHER WEST...INCREASING STORM COVERAGE IS ANTICIPATED ACROSS SOUTHEAST KS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...LEADING TO A RENEWED THREAT FOR TORNADOES/VERY LARGE HAIL THIS EVENING INTO WESTERN MO. CU FIELD REMAINS AGGRESSIVE ACROSS SOUTHEAST KS AMIDST NEGLIGIBLE CINH PER ADJUSTED RUC SOUNDINGS. ..GUYER.. 03/12/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...PAH...ILX...LSX...DVN...SGF...EAX...TOP...ICT... 39249531 40299349 40479114 40388920 39868850 38828839 38138924 37789185 37349429 37439548 37919569 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun Mar 12 23:53:31 2006 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Sun, 12 Mar 2006 18:53:31 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <20060312235539.AAA95D4C14@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 122354 SWOMCD SPC MCD 122354 OHZ000-MIZ000-INZ000-130130- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0265 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0554 PM CST SUN MAR 12 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...NORTHERN INDIANA/SOUTHWEST LOWER MI/FAR NORTHWEST OH CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 122354Z - 130130Z SEVERE THREAT APPEARS LIKELY TO INCREASE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS ACROSS NORTHERN INDIANA...AND PERHAPS SOUTHWEST LOWER MI AND FAR NORTHWEST OH. WILL MONITOR CONVECTIVE TRENDS...A WATCH MAY BE NEEDED IN THE NEXT ONE TO TWO HOURS. INITIAL PRIMARY HAZARD WOULD BE LARGE HAIL. STRONG/SEVERE STORM IN WILL COUNTY IL AS OF 2345Z SHOULD CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD INTO NORTHERN INDIANA IN VICINITY OF SUBTLE/REMNANT BAROCLINIC ZONE EXTENDING WEST-EAST FROM NORTH CENTRAL IL INTO NORTHERN INDIANA...WITH ADDITIONAL TSTM DEVELOPMENT ALSO ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE EVENING. ALTHOUGH THE STORM HAS SHOW A RECENT WEAKENING TREND AND SURFACE BASED/ELEVATED INSTABILITY IS MARGINAL EARLY THIS EVENING...AN INCREASINGLY STRONG SOUTHWESTLY LOW LEVEL JET NOSING INTO THE AREA WILL SUPPORT AN IMPRESSIVE MOISTURE TRANSPORT REGIME AND AN INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS TONIGHT. ..GUYER.. 03/12/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...IWX...GRR...LOT... 41538707 42358615 42438498 41808458 40938499 40858508 40798576 40818654 41078708 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Mar 13 00:20:05 2006 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Sun, 12 Mar 2006 19:20:05 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <20060313002213.B9373D4C12@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 130021 SWOMCD SPC MCD 130021 ARZ000-MOZ000-OKZ000-130215- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0266 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0621 PM CST SUN MAR 12 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...E CNTRL AND NERN OK THROUGH SRN MO AND NRN AR CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 74... VALID 130021Z - 130215Z THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN THE PROCESS OF INITIATING ALONG THE DRYLINE FROM E CNTRL THROUGH NERN OK. THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO MOVE GENERALLY NEWD DURING THE EVENING. SUPERCELLS WITH VERY LARGE HAIL AND A FEW STRONG TORNADOES WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREATS. SHORT TERM INITIATION FARTHER EAST INTO NRN AR AND SRN MO IS LESS CERTAIN. HOWEVER...STORMS DEVELOPING FATHER W WILL LIKELY SPREAD INTO THIS REGION LATER THIS EVENING. EARLY THIS EVENING A DRYLINE EXTENDS FROM A SURFACE LOW IN NERN KS SWD THROUGH E CNTRL OK AND INTO N CNTRL TX. OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS SHOWS WARM SECTOR E OF THE DRYLINE REMAINS MODERATELY UNSTABLE AND IS ONLY WEAKLY CAPPED. TOWERING CUMULUS CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN VICINITY OF THE DRYLINE FROM JUST E OF OKC INTO SERN KS WHERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALREADY DEVELOPING. A STRONG MID LEVEL JET WILL EJECT NEWD THROUGH KS AND OK THIS EVENING. THE LOW LEVEL JET WILL STRENGTHEN OVER THE SRN PLAINS WITHIN THE EXIT REGION OF THIS FEATURE. THE STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET WILL ENHANCE LIFT AND LOW LEVEL SHEAR ACROSS ERN OK INTO MO AND AR RESULTING IN KINEMATIC FIELDS INCREASINGLY SUPPORTIVE OF STRONG LOW LEVEL MESOCYCLONES AND TORNADOES. ..DIAL.. 03/13/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...SGF...TSA...OUN... 35179707 36649633 36909505 36249427 35199572 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Mar 13 00:27:40 2006 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Sun, 12 Mar 2006 19:27:40 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <20060313002951.641BAD43A2@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 130029 SWOMCD SPC MCD 130028 ILZ000-MOZ000-IAZ000-KSZ000-130200- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0267 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0628 PM CST SUN MAR 12 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...FAR EASTERN KS/MUCH OF MO INTO WESTERN/CENTRAL IL CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 73... VALID 130028Z - 130200Z PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS TORNADO WATCH 73 CONTINUES UNTIL 04Z. AN ENHANCED TORNADO/VERY LARGE HAIL THREAT WILL REMAIN WITH SUPERCELLS MOVING INTO WEST CENTRAL IL OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. OTHER STRONG/SEVERE STORMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS FAR SOUTHEAST KS...WITH THIS ACTIVITY SPREADING INTO WESTERN MO THIS EVENING. IMPRESSIVE SUPERCELLS WITH TORNADIC HISTORY ARE CROSSING THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER FROM EAST CENTRAL MO INTO WEST CENTRAL IL AT THIS TIME...ROUGHLY 45 MILES NNW OF STL. THESE STORMS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO MOVE ENE WITHIN BAROCLINIC ZONE ALONG/NORTH OF WARM FRONT FROM CENTRAL MO INTO CENTRAL IL. NEAR STORM ENVIRONMENT REMAINS FAVORABLE FOR THE POTENTIAL OF SIGNIFICANT TORNADOES AND VERY LARGE HAIL IN ENHANCED BAROCLINICITY/STRONG LOW LEVEL SRH ENVIRONMENT. THESE SUPERCELLS WILL LIKELY REACH THE PITTSFIELD/JACKSONVILLE IL AREAS BY 0100-0130Z...AND POTENTIALLY THE SPRINGFIELD/TAYLORVILLE IL VICINITIES THEREAFTER. FURTHER WEST...SEVERE STORMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ALONG DRYLINE ACROSS FAR EASTERN KS FROM NEAR THE KC METRO AREA SSW TO NEAR COFFEYVILLE KS. OBSERVED 00Z SPRINGFIELD MO RAOB CONTINUES TO SAMPLE A WARM SECTOR ENVIRONMENT THAT IS VERY FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS...WITH VERY LARGE HAIL/TORNADIC POTENTIAL. AS DEVELOPMENT CONTINUES TO OCCUR THIS EVENING AND SPREAD INTO WESTERN MO...THERE IS A POSSIBILITY FOR AN ENHANCED TORNADO THREAT AS STORMS INTERACT WITH MODIFYING WEST-EAST ORIENTED OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ACROSS WEST CENTRAL MO AND/OR WARM FRONT. ..GUYER.. 03/13/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...PAH...ILX...LSX...DVN...SGF...EAX...TOP...ICT... 39659471 40399304 40408963 39208904 38018954 37279289 37139443 37439533 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Mar 13 01:14:29 2006 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Sun, 12 Mar 2006 20:14:29 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <20060313011638.B5211D4249@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 130115 SWOMCD SPC MCD 130115 INZ000-ILZ000-WIZ000-IAZ000-130245- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0268 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0715 PM CST SUN MAR 12 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...EASTERN IA/NORTHERN IL/NORTHWEST INDIANA/SOUTHERN WI CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 75... VALID 130115Z - 130245Z TORNADO WATCH 75 CONTINUES UNTIL 06Z...WITH A MORE WIDESPREAD SEVERE THREAT EXPECTED TO EVOLVE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS ACROSS EASTERN IA/NORTHERN IL INTO SOUTHERN WI/NORTHWEST INDIANA. A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED SOON FROM SOUTH CENTRAL IA INTO FAR NORTHERN IL/SOUTHERN WI. AIRMASS ACROSS THE REGION CONTINUES TO QUICKLY DESTABILIZE NORTH OF DOUBLE SURFACE WARM FRONT/BAROCLINIC ZONES FROM MO INTO CENTRAL/NORTH CENTRAL IL. THIS DESTABILIZATION TREND IS WELL SAMPLED BY 00Z RAOBS FROM DAVENPORT IA/LINCOLN IL...WITH VERY STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR ALREADY IN PLACE. THIS SCENARIO WILL BE FURTHER AIDED REMAINDER OF THE EVENING BY TENDENCY FOR BAROCLINIC ZONE TO SHIFT NORTH ACROSS MO/IL AHEAD OF APPROACHING/DEEPENING SURFACE LOW AND INCREASINGLY STRONG LOW LEVEL JET. IN ADDITION TO THE POSSIBILITY FOR LAGE HAIL ACROSS WW 75...A STEADILY INCREASING THREAT FOR TORNADOES AND DAMAGING WINDS IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...ESPECIALLY FROM SOUTHEAST IA ACROSS NORTHWEST/NORTH CENTRAL IL. PRIMARY THREAT ACROSS NORTHEAST IA/SOUTHERN WI WILL BE LARGE HAIL. ..GUYER.. 03/13/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LOT...ILX...MKX...DVN...ARX...DMX... 42479194 43289008 42938836 41218739 40658818 40558953 40639096 40909268 41559285 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Mar 13 01:59:09 2006 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Sun, 12 Mar 2006 20:59:09 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <20060313020118.931BBD47F7@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 130200 SWOMCD SPC MCD 130200 INZ000-ILZ000-MOZ000-IAZ000-KSZ000-130330- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0269 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0800 PM CST SUN MAR 12 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...EASTERN KS/MUCH OF MO/CENTRAL IL INTO WESTERN INDIANA CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 73... VALID 130200Z - 130330Z TORNADO WATCH 73 CONTINUES UNTIL 04Z. EXTREMELY DANGEROUS SITUATION WITH STRONG TORNADO POTENTIAL QUICKLY INCREASING ACROSS CENTRAL IL NEAR THE SPRINGFIELD/LINCOLN/DECATUR AREAS...AND PERHAPS EVENTUALLY NEAR THE CHAMPAIGN VICINITY. FURTHER WEST...A WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT SEVERE THREAT IS ALSO QUICKLY INCREASING ACROSS A LARGE PORTION OF WESTERN/CENTRAL MO. AN ADDITIONAL AND/OR REPLACEMENT WATCH MAY BE NEEDED IN THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO ACROSS EASTERN IL/WESTERN INDIANA. SUPERCELL CURRENTLY ACROSS WEST CENTRAL IL NEARING SPRINGFIELD IL COULD BREACH THE EASTERN PORTION OF TORNADO WATCH 73 AS EARLY AS 03Z...THUS WILL CLOSELY MONITOR FOR AN ADDITIONAL WATCH ISSUANCE ACROSS EASTERN IL/WESTERN INDIANA. THIS SUPERCELL...WITH A HISTORY OF PRODUCING TORNADOES...WITH CONTINUE TO PROGRESS ENE IN AN ENVIRONMENT THAT REMAINS FAVORABLE FOR SIGNIFICANT TORNADOES. THE 00Z LINCOLN IL SOUNDING IS REPRESENTATIVE OF STRONG LOW LEVEL SHEAR -- 300 M2/S2 0-1 KM SRH -- AND BAROCLINICITY IN PLACE NEAR WARM FRONT ACROSS CENTRAL IL. FURTHER WEST...BROKEN STRING OF SCATTERED SUPERCELLS CONTINUE TO ERUPT FROM NORTH CENTRAL MO INTO EXTREME SW MO AHEAD OF DRYLINE/COLD FRONT. THIS ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD EASTWARD ACROSS WESTERN/CENTRAL MO TONIGHT...WITH POTENTIAL FOR TORNADOES...PERHAPS ENHANCED BY CENTRAL MO WARM FRONT AND/OR OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM PREVIOUS CONVECTION. IN ADDITION...VERY LARGE HAIL WILL REMAIN LIKELY WITH THE STRONGER STORMS...WITH A DAMAGING WIND THREAT POTENTIALLY EVOLVING/INCREASING LATER THIS EVENING. ..GUYER.. 03/13/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...IWX...IND...PAH...LOT...ILX...LSX...DVN...SGF...EAX... 40069380 40589139 40758886 40858636 39498617 38818722 38038953 37429106 37289322 37179410 37259490 38409486 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Mar 13 04:39:35 2006 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Sun, 12 Mar 2006 23:39:35 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <20060313044241.6F689D4961@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 130440 SWOMCD SPC MCD 130439 MIZ000-INZ000-130615- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0272 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1039 PM CST SUN MAR 12 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...NRN IND THROUGH SRN LOWER MI CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 130439Z - 130615Z SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO THREAT IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE OVER PARTS OF NRN IND AND SRN LOWER MI INTO THE OVERNIGHT. WW WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR THIS AREA BY 0530Z. LATE THIS EVENING A WARM FRONT EXTENDS FROM NEAR THE IND...MI BORDER WWD THROUGH NERN IL. ANOTHER WARM FRONT FARTHER S EXTENDS FROM SWRN IND NWWD THROUGH N CNTRL IL. LEAD SUPERCELL CURRENTLY OVER EXTREME ERN IL MOVING INTO IROQUOIS COUNTY HAS A HISTORY OF LONG TRACK DAMAGING TORNADOES...BUT HAS RECENTLY SHOWN A WEAKENING TREND...AT LEAST TEMPORARILY. THIS STORM INITIATED IN SERN KS AROUND 18Z...HAS PERSISTED FOR MORE THAN 10 HOURS AND TRAVELED ALMOST 500 MILES. IT IS CURRENTLY MOVING NEWD AT AROUND 35 KT AND IF IT SURVIVES...WILL MOVE THROUGH NWRN IND WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR AND OUT OF WW 77 AFTER 06Z. THE STORM IS CURRENTLY NEAR THE SRN MOST WARM FRONT. THE ATMOSPHERE IS LESS UNSTABLE WITH NEWD EXTENT INTO SRN LOWER MI. HOWEVER...A STRONG 70+ KT LOW LEVEL JET WILL CONTINUE TO RESULT IN NEWD DESTABILIZATION WITH TIME...AND THE WARM FRONT SHOULD GRADUALLY SHIFT NWD AS THE SURFACE LOW MOVES INTO NRN IL LATER TONIGHT. ..DIAL.. 03/13/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...IWX...GRR...IND...LOT... 40048705 40228736 40708696 41458683 42258620 42228468 40998509 40198614  From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Mar 13 05:50:52 2006 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Mon, 13 Mar 2006 00:50:52 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <20060313055348.41DE9D43A2@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 130553 SWOMCD SPC MCD 130552 ILZ000-IAZ000-WIZ000-130715- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0274 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1152 PM CST SUN MAR 12 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...SERN IA THROUGH EXTREME NWRN IL CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 76... VALID 130552Z - 130715Z THREAT FOR MAINLY LARGE HAIL IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST ANOTHER COUPLE HOURS FROM PARTS OF SERN IA INTO NWRN IL. RADAR TRENDS HAVE SHOWN NEW STORMS DEVELOPING WITHIN WARM ADVECTION ZONE N OF WARM FRONT ACROSS SERN IS. SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE 40S. HOWEVER...SUFFICIENT ELEVATED CAPE AND CLOUD LAYER SHEAR EXISTS TO SUPPORT A THREAT FOR MAINLY LARGE HAIL CONTINUING NEXT FEW HOURS. ..DIAL.. 03/13/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...DVN...ARX...DMX... 42008976 40669247 40989307 42109186 42539051 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Mar 13 06:32:52 2006 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Mon, 13 Mar 2006 01:32:52 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <20060313063548.12154D4961@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 130635 SWOMCD SPC MCD 130635 KYZ000-ILZ000-TNZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-130800- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0275 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1235 AM CST MON MAR 13 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...SERN MO / SRN IL / WRN KY CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 130635Z - 130800Z POTENTIAL FOR SUPERCELLS AND ISOLATED TORNADOES IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP E OF WW/S 77 AND 78 BY 0800Z AND A NEW TORNADO WATCH WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED. AS OF 0625Z...REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY SHOWED A LONG-LIVED TORNADIC SUPERCELL OVER S-CNTRL MO /DOUGLAS AND OZARK COUNTIES/ MOVING 250/45 KTS. EXTRAPOLATION TAKES THIS STORM E OF WW 78 BETWEEN 0730-0800Z. RUC OBJECTIVE FIELDS AND LOCAL VWP DATA INDICATE THAT ENVIRONMENT REMAINS QUITE SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELLS AND TORNADOES DOWNSTREAM OF PRESENT WW/S WITH MLCAPES OF 1000-1500 J/KG...50-60 KTS OF DEEP-LAYER SHEAR AND PERHAPS MOST IMPORTANTLY...VERY STRONG LOW-LEVEL SHEAR /0-1 KM SRH OF 400-500 M2/S2/. DESPITE SOME TENDENCY FOR INCREASING CONVECTIVE INHIBITION ACROSS WARM SECTOR...THIS STRONG SHEAR AND RESULTANT STORM-SCALE NON-HYDROSTATIC VERTICAL PRESSURE GRADIENTS WILL LIKELY BE ABLE TO OVERCOME THIS INCREASING CAP WITH THE TORNADO THREAT CONTINUING THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. ..MEAD.. 03/13/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...PAH...MEG...LSX... 36659104 37579095 38059041 38348996 38598905 37698809 36708820 36398911 36358993 36459050 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Mar 13 13:55:52 2006 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Mon, 13 Mar 2006 08:55:52 -0500 Subject: [MCD] {Spam?} SWOMCD Message-ID: <20060313135848.63563D42D3@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 131358 SWOMCD SPC MCD 131357 MIZ000-WIZ000-MNZ000-131900- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0281 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0757 AM CST MON MAR 13 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...SERN MN...NW WI...WRN U.P. OF MI CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW VALID 131357Z - 131900Z A LARGE BAND OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW WILL LIFT NEWD THIS MORNING FROM SERN MN AND NW WI TOWARDS THE WRN U.P. OF MI. SNOWFALL RATES OF 1 TO 1.5 IN/HR ARE LIKELY WITH LOCAL AREAS UP TO 2 IN/HR IN CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS. MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW HAS BEEN ONGOING THIS MORNING TO THE NW OF A STRENGTHENING SURFACE LOW IN SW WI. THIS LOW WILL TRACK NEWD OVER LK MI BY 21Z. THE MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW BAND HAS BEEN COINCIDENT WITH A STRONG AREA OF 700 TO 650 MB FRONTOGENESIS AND LOW-MID LEVEL ISENTROPIC LIFT. THE 12Z MPX SOUNDING SHOWED A DEFORMATION AXIS AROUND THIS LEVEL WITH NEARLY FULL SATURATION OF THE DENDRITIC LAYER. BOTH 12Z RUC/06Z NAM-WRF MODELS ARE CONSISTENT WITH LIFTING THE STRONG AREA OF FRONTOGENESIS TOWARD WRN U.P. OF MI AND LK SUPERIOR. 09Z SREF GUIDANCE IS ALSO CONSISTENT WITH THE RUC/NAM-WRF MODELS IN PRODUCING THE HEAVIEST QPF THIS MORNING FROM THE SERN TWIN CITIES METRO NEWD INTO WRN U.P. OF MI. THIS HEAVIEST QPF LINES UP REASONABLY WELL WITH THE BAND SEEN ON REGIONAL RADARS...AND WILL RESULT IN 1 TO 1.5 IN/HR SNOWFALL RATES. ELEVATED INSTABILITY WITH MUCAPES FROM 250 TO 500 J/KG HAS ALLOWED CONVECTIVE SNOW/SLEET TO FORM FARTHER EAST ACROSS CNTRL WI. THIS WILL RESULT IN ENHANCED SNOWFALL RATES OF UP TO 2 IN/HR AS THESE CONVECTIVE BANDS LIFT NORTH. ..GRAMS.. 03/13/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MQT...GRB...DLH...ARX...MPX... 44089462 44819422 45439309 46409117 46809017 47388868 46538669 46128690 45688874 44269084 43749153 43559237 43599401 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Mar 13 15:00:22 2006 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Mon, 13 Mar 2006 10:00:22 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <20060313150316.4BF21D5637@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 131502 SWOMCD SPC MCD 131502 TNZ000-KYZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-MSZ000-LAZ000-131600- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0282 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0902 AM CST MON MAR 13 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...SRN AND ERN AR/THE MO BOOTHEEL CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 84... VALID 131502Z - 131600Z SEVERE/TORNADO THREAT HAS DECREASED ACROSS WW. STRONGEST STORMS CONTINUE TO MOVE EWD INTO WW 86 OVER WRN TN. BROKEN LINE OF GENERALLY WEAK CONVECTION CONTINUES MOVING EWD OUT OF WW -- INTO PORTIONS OF WRN TN AND ADJACENT NWRN MS. STRONGEST STORMS STILL WITHIN WW ARE APPROACHING THE MS RIVER W AND NW OF MEM...AND WILL CONTINUE MOVING INTO SRN PORTIONS OF WW 86 OVER THE NEXT HOUR. LATEST OBJECTIVE ANALYSES INDICATE MINIMAL INSTABILITY SWD ACROSS W CENTRAL AND NWRN MS...AND MORNING JAN RAOB REVEALED A SUBSTANTIAL CAP JUST BELOW 700 MB. THOUGH DEEP-LAYER SHEAR REMAINS SUPPORTIVE OF SEVERE/SUPERCELL STORMS...IT APPEARS THAT HEATING/DESTABILIZATION WILL BE REQUIRED BEFORE SEVERE THREAT RE-EVOLVES. THEREFORE...WILL ALLOW WW 84 TO EXPIRE...AND WILL MONITOR DOWNSTREAM DESTABILIZATION THROUGH THIS MORNING. ..GOSS.. 03/13/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...PAH...MEG...JAN...LZK...SHV... 36459018 36508952 36138930 33019106 32939246 34719137 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Mar 13 15:37:14 2006 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Mon, 13 Mar 2006 10:37:14 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <20060313154009.7807ED4C56@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 131539 SWOMCD SPC MCD 131539 MIZ000-OHZ000-INZ000-131645- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0283 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0939 AM CST MON MAR 13 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...SRN LOWER MI/NWRN OH/NRN IN CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 83...85... VALID 131539Z - 131645Z NEW TORNADO WATCH WILL BE ISSUED SHORTLY REPLACING WW 83 WHICH EXPIRES AT THE TOP OF THE HOUR. LIMITED INSTABILITY IS INDICATED ATTM ACROSS NWRN OH ATTM...WHERE EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER EXISTS. HOWEVER...SOME CLEARING/DESTABILIZATION IS OCCURRING IMMEDIATELY AHEAD OF COLD FRONT -- ACROSS NWRN IN AND SWRN LOWER MI...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW STORM REDEVELOPMENT TO OCCUR ALONG/AHEAD OF COLD FRONT. WITH VERY STRONG DEEP-LAYER WIND FIELD ACROSS THE REGION...SEVERE/SUPERCELL STORMS SHOULD QUICKLY EVOLVE. THEREFORE...NEW WW WILL BE ISSUED SHORTLY...COVERING SRN LOWER MI AND SWD INTO NWRN OH/NRN INDIANA. ..GOSS.. 03/13/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...CLE...ILN...DTX...IWX...GRR...IND... 43678471 43508276 42118268 39818375 39638561 40018710 43308534 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Mar 13 18:34:22 2006 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Mon, 13 Mar 2006 13:34:22 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <20060313183717.6C8C9D4A8D@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 131836 SWOMCD SPC MCD 131836 TNZ000-ALZ000-MSZ000-132030- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0284 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1236 PM CST MON MAR 13 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...MIDDLE TN AND NORTHERN/CENTRAL MS INTO NORTHERN AL CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 131836Z - 132030Z THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS ACROSS NORTHERN/CENTRAL MS AND MIDDLE TN INTO NORTHERN AL. PRIMARY HAZARD WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS...WITH ISOLATED TORNADOES POSSIBLE AS WELL. WILL MONITOR FOR A POSSIBLE WATCH IN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO. SURFACE ANALYSIS DEPICTS COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED CONVECTION MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS WESTERN TN AND NORTHWEST MS AT 1830Z. WHILE THESE TSTMS HAVE REMAINED MODEST THUS FAR...SUFFICIENT INSOLATION AND COOLING ALOFT/LOW LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY INSTABILITY FEED WILL LIKELY LEAD TO INCREASING CONVECTIVE VIGOR WITH TIME. SPECIAL 18Z RAOB FROM JACKSON MS DEPICTS CONSIDERABLE COOLING/MOISTENING BETWEEN 700-900 MB SINCE 12Z...ALTHOUGH WEAK CINH/WARM LAYER ABOVE 700 MB REMAINS. WITH INCREASING TSTM COVERAGE THIS AFTERNOON AND DEVELOPMENT OF 500-1000 J/KG MLCAPE...STRONG WARM SECTOR VERTICAL /NAMELY SPEED/ SHEAR OF 50-60 KTS WILL PROMOTE THE POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WINDS. THREAT FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH DISCRETE SUPERCELLS AND/OR EVOLUTION OF LINE-EMBEDDED LEWPS...ALTHOUGH LOW LEVEL SHEAR WILL TEND TO WEAKEN WITH TIME. ..GUYER.. 03/13/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MRX...OHX...BMX...HUN...MEG...JAN... 36328791 36538642 36408546 35568527 32648875 32519008 32889053 33909009 34818939 35578871 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Mar 13 20:11:39 2006 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Mon, 13 Mar 2006 15:11:39 -0500 Subject: [MCD] {Spam?} SWOMCD Message-ID: <20060313201434.9C05FD4A7D@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 132014 SWOMCD SPC MCD 132013 NYZ000-PAZ000-MDZ000-WVZ000-OHZ000-KYZ000-INZ000-TNZ000-132145- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0285 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0213 PM CST MON MAR 13 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...SERN INDIANA/CENTRAL KY/OH/ PA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 88... VALID 132013Z - 132145Z THUNDERSTORMS/SEVERE THREAT MAY INCREASE AHEAD OF FRONT -- PARTICULARLY ACROSS CENTRAL KY AND INTO WRN OH -- OVER THE NEXT 1 TO 2 HOURS. THOUGH INITIAL CONVECTION CLUSTER NOW MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL KY/ERN OH/WRN PA HAS LEFT A RELATIVELY STABLE AIRMASS IN ITS WAKE...SURFACE AND OBJECTIVE ANALYSES INDICATE AN AXIS OF MOISTENING/DESTABILIZATION SPREADING NWD ACROSS KY INTO WRN OH BEHIND THE INITIAL CONVECTION/AHEAD OF COLD FRONT. THIS COINCIDES WITH CONVECTIVE INCREASE INDICATED BY LATEST RADAR IMAGERY FROM WRN TN NNEWD TO THE OH RIVER. THIS TREND SHOULD CONTINUE...WITH A CORRESPONDING INCREASE IN SEVERE THREAT GIVEN STRONG DEEP-LAYER WIND FIELD. RELATIVELY UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW JUST OFF THE SURFACE SUGGESTS THAT DAMAGING WINDS SHOULD BE THE PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT. E OF WATCH -- INTO CENTRAL AND ERN PA...LESS CLOUDINESS HAS ALLOWED SOME HEATING/DESTABILIZATION TO OCCUR...WITH TEMPERATURES NOW IN THE LOW TO MID 70S AND 500 TO 1000 J/KG SURFACE-BASED CAPE NOW INDICATED. SEVERE THREAT APPEARS TO BE INCREASING ALONG LEADING EDGE OF THE INITIAL CONVECTIVE CLUSTER AS IT MOVES INTO CENTRAL PA...WHICH MAY REQUIRE WW ISSUANCE E OF WW 88. ..GOSS.. 03/13/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...PHI...BGM...BUF...CTP...LWX...PBZ...RLX...CLE...JKL...ILN...LMK...IWX...OHX...IND...PAH... 36618726 39858468 42028262 41937953 42387712 42037518 39877682 39457973 38658140 36728465 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Mar 13 20:17:23 2006 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Mon, 13 Mar 2006 15:17:23 -0500 Subject: [MCD] {Spam?} SWOMCD Message-ID: <20060313202019.1E8BDD4A73@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 132019 SWOMCD SPC MCD 132019 MIZ000-OHZ000-132115- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0286 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0219 PM CST MON MAR 13 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...FAR ERN LOWER MI/NWRN OH CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 87... VALID 132019Z - 132115Z NARROW AXIS OF SEVERE/TORNADO THREAT WILL PERSIST FOR THE NEXT HOUR OR SO ACROSS LOWER MI...AND CONTINUE MOVING EWD INTO NWRN PORTIONS OF WW 88 ACROSS OH. THUNDERSTORMS HAVE INCREASED AHEAD OF COLD FRONT SWEEPING EWD ACROSS SERN LOWER MI/FAR NWRN OH ATTM....PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE THUMB REGION. THOUGH STORMS SHOULD MOVE ACROSS LK HURON/INTO SRN ONTARIO OVER THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS...THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER -- INCLUDING ISOLATED TORNADOES -- HAS INCREASED ACROSS THIS NARROW CORRIDOR. FURTHER S...CONVECTION REMAINS WEAKER...BUT SHOULD INCREASE AS IT MOVES ACROSS NWRN OH/INTO WW 88 OVER THE NEXT 1 TO 2 HOURS. ..GOSS.. 03/13/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...CLE...DTX...IWX... 43948310 43708270 42748271 40998350 40878471 42878344 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Mar 13 21:31:54 2006 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Mon, 13 Mar 2006 16:31:54 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <20060313213451.D43B1D4A5C@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 132132 SWOMCD SPC MCD 132132 ALZ000-MSZ000-LAZ000-132300- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0287 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0332 PM CST MON MAR 13 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTHERN MS/EASTERN LA INTO SOUTHWEST AL CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 132132Z - 132300Z ISOLATED SEVERE POTENTIAL MAY INCREASE ACROSS SOUTHERN MS/EASTERN LA INTO SOUTHWEST AL IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. A WATCH IS NOT CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED SOUTH OF TORNADO WATCH 89...HOWEVER WILL MONITOR CONVECTIVE TRENDS. SOUTH OF TORNADO WATCH 89 ACROSS MS/AL...INCREASING AREAL TSTM COVERAGE IS ANTICIPATED REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON ACROSS SOUTHERN MS/EASTERN LA INTO SOUTHWEST AL AHEAD OF SYNOPTIC COLD FRONT...WITH POSSIBILITY FOR ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS. ALTHOUGH A SUFFICIENTLY FAVORABLE COMBINATION OF INSTABILITY/VERTICAL SHEAR EXISTS... CONFIDENCE/LIKLIHOOD OF SEVERE POTENTIAL DIMINISHES WITH SOUTHWARD EXTENT...LARGELY OWING TO MILDER MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES/WEAKER MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES VIA SOUTH PERIPHERY OF MID/UPPER JET. GIVEN EXPECTED ISOLATED/MARGINAL NATURE OF THREAT...A WATCH IS NOT CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED...BUT TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED. ..GUYER.. 03/13/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...BMX...MOB...JAN...LIX... 32199003 32448840 32288740 32048706 31798714 30928796 30268952 30359116 31579086  From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Mar 13 21:59:00 2006 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Mon, 13 Mar 2006 16:59:00 -0500 Subject: [MCD] {Spam?} SWOMCD Message-ID: <20060313220153.3C3C8D4A5C@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 132200 SWOMCD SPC MCD 132159 TNZ000-GAZ000-ALZ000-MSZ000-132330- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0288 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0359 PM CST MON MAR 13 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...NORTHERN/EASTERN MS AND EASTERN/MIDDLE TN INTO NORTHERN/WESTERN AL CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 89... VALID 132159Z - 132330Z TORNADO WATCH 89 CONTINUES UNTIL 02Z ACROSS NORTHERN/EASTERN MS AND MIDDLE TN INTO NORTHERN/WESTERN AL. POTENTIAL REMAINS FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS...AND PERHAPS LARGE HAIL. SEVERAL STORMS HAVE EXHIBITED PERSISTENT ROTATION FROM NORTHEAST MS INTO MIDDLE TN OVER THE PAST HOUR OR SO...INCLUDING TORNADO REPORTS WITH SUPERCELL THAT MOVED THROUGH WEBSTER COUNTY MS. MESOANALYSIS SUPPORTED BY RUC SOUNDINGS/18Z JACKSON RAOB INDICATIVE OF INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS...WITH MLCAPE VALUES OF 500-800 J/KG NOW EXTENDING NORTHEASTWARD INTO MIDDLE TN. WITH MODEST INSTABILITY/LARGELY UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW REGIME...SPEED SHEAR IN THE LOWEST 1-2 KM HAS PROVED SUFFICIENT FOR LOW LEVEL MESOCYCLONES THIS AFTERNOON. REGIONAL WSR-88D VWPS AND OKOLONA MS PROFILER SUGGEST 150-200 M2/S2 0-1 KM SRH...FAVORABLE FOR CONTINUED TORNADO POTENTIAL VIA DISTINCT SUPERCELLS AND/OR DEVELOPING LEWPS. WILL MONITOR FOR AN ADDITIONAL WATCH EASTWARD ACROSS EASTERN TN. ..GUYER.. 03/13/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MRX...FFC...OHX...BMX...HUN...MEG...JAN... 35708809 36498713 36538476 36418414 35688430 34488582 33208677 32858752 32848838 32868909 33078939 33688953 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Mar 13 23:39:18 2006 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Mon, 13 Mar 2006 18:39:18 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <20060313234213.82033D47F7@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 132341 SWOMCD SPC MCD 132341 TNZ000-NCZ000-GAZ000-ALZ000-MSZ000-140045- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0289 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0541 PM CST MON MAR 13 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...NORTHEAST MS/NORTHERN AL/NORTHWEST GA AND MIDDLE/EASTERN TN CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 89...90... VALID 132341Z - 140045Z TORNADO WATCH 89 CONTINUES UNTIL 02Z ACROSS MIDDLE TN/EASTERN MS INTO NORTHERN/WESTERN AL...TORNADO WATCH 90 CONTINUES UNTIL 04Z ACROSS EASTERN TN. AN ADDITIONAL WATCH ISSUANCE ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF NORTHERN AL MAY BE NEEDED BY 00Z. THREAT FOR TORNADOES CONTINUES THROUGH EARLY EVENING...IN ADDITION TO DAMAGING WINDS AND PERHAPS LARGE HAIL. LOW/MID LEVEL MESOCYCLONES HAVE BEEN COMMON OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS ACROSS NORTHEAST MS/NORTHWEST AL INTO MIDDLE TN VIA VOLUMETRIC RADAR DATA...WITH AS MANY AS 10 REPORTS OF TORNADO AND/OR WIND DAMAGE AS OF 2330Z. SIMILAR SCENARIO SHOULD CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...INTO EASTERN TN/WW 90...AND NORTHEAST AL/NORTHWEST GA WHERE AN ADDITIONAL TORNADO WATCH COULD BE NEEDED SOON. EVEN WITH MODEST INSTABILITY...LOW LEVEL ROTATION/TORNADOES AND WIND DAMAGE WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE WITH AREA WSR-88D VWPS INDICATIVE OF 150-200 MS/S2 OR GREATER 0-1 KM SRH...MAXIMIZED ACROSS MIDDLE/EASTERN TN. ..GUYER.. 03/13/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MRX...FFC...OHX...BMX...HUN...MEG...JAN... 35138813 36448673 36448452 36228399 35078425 34248477 33128597 32758743 32698827 32758936 33058956 33428922 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Mar 14 00:08:52 2006 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Mon, 13 Mar 2006 19:08:52 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <20060314001147.6647CD48EB@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 140010 SWOMCD SPC MCD 140009 PAZ000-WVZ000-OHZ000-KYZ000-140145- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0290 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0609 PM CST MON MAR 13 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL AND ERN KY THROUGH CNTRL AND ERN OH AND NWRN PA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 88... VALID 140009Z - 140145Z SEVERE THREAT IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST ACROSS REMAINING PORTIONS OF WW 88 NEXT FEW HOURS. A MORE LIMITED SEVERE THREAT EXISTS E OF WW 88. A WW E OF THE CURRENT WATCH WILL PROBABLY NOT BE NEEDED UNLESS UNEXPECTED INTENSIFICATION OCCURS. EARLY THIS EVENING A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM NWRN OH SWWD THROUGH WRN KY...WRN TN AND THE LOWER MS VALLEY. THE WARM SECTOR E OF THIS BOUNDARY IS ONLY MARGINALLY UNSTABLE WITH MODEST LAPSE RATES AND AN AXIS OF MUCAPE AOB 500 J/KG. STORMS ARE CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH THE AXIS OF BEST INSTABILITY ACROSS KY INTO OH. INSTABILITY IS MORE LIMITED WITH EWD EXTENT INTO PA AND WV...WHERE TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS ARE LOWER. STRONG KINEMATIC FIELDS INCLUDING A STRONG SWLY LOW LEVEL JET WILL PERSIST THIS EVENING...MAINTAINING A THREAT FOR SOME ORGANIZED STORM STRUCTURES INCLUDING SUPERCELLS AND LINES. ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND AND PERHAPS A TORNADO OR TWO WILL REMAIN THE PRIMARY THREATS NEXT FEW HOURS. ..DIAL.. 03/14/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...PBZ...RLX...CLE...JKL...ILN...LMK... 36718472 37218600 41368191 41437976 37788214 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Mar 14 01:25:23 2006 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Mon, 13 Mar 2006 20:25:23 -0500 Subject: [MCD] {Spam?} SWOMCD Message-ID: <20060314012817.12958D4A5C@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 140127 SWOMCD SPC MCD 140127 TNZ000-NCZ000-GAZ000-ALZ000-MSZ000-140300- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0291 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0727 PM CST MON MAR 13 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...EASTERN MS/NORTHERN AL/NORTHWEST GA AND MIDDLE/EASTERN TN CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 89...90...91... VALID 140127Z - 140300Z TORNADO WATCH 89 IS SCHEDULED TO EXPIRE AT 02Z ACROSS NORTHEAST MS/NORTHWEST AL/MIDDLE TN...CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT AN ADDITIONAL WATCH ISSUANCE WILL NOT BE NECESSARY. TORNADO WATCH 90 CONTINUES UNTIL 04Z ACROSS EASTERN TN. TORNADO WATCH 91 CONTINUES UNTIL 05Z ACROSS NORTHEAST AL/NORTHWEST GA. IT APPEARS THERE WILL BE SOME POTENTIAL FOR A LINGERING SEVERE THREAT PAST THE 02Z SCHEDULED EXPIRATION OF TORNADO WATCH 89...NAMELY FROM EASTERN CENTRAL MS INTO WESTERN AL. BOUNDARY LAYER COOLING WILL GRADUALLY LEAD TO A DIMINISHING SEVERE THREAT THIS EVENING...BUT AMPLE SOUTHWESTLY LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY FEED PER 00Z JAN/LIX RAOBS SHOULD MAINTAIN POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST ISOLATED SEVERE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. FURTHER EAST ACROSS TORNADO WATCHES 90/91...LOW LEVEL FLOW FIELDS IN PRESENCE OF MODEST INSTABILITY WILL CONTINUE THE THREAT FOR ISOLD TORNADOES AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WITH STORMS MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS EASTERN TN/NORTHEAST AL INTO NORTHWEST GA. STORMS ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL/NORTHEAST AL HAVE EXHIBITED AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF LOW LEVEL ROTATION WITH HISTORY OF ISOLATED TORNADOES/WIND DAMAGE. ..GUYER.. 03/14/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MRX...FFC...OHX...BMX...HUN...MOB...MEG...JAN... 35058760 36388605 36488466 36218403 35078425 34248477 32928582 32538648 32168735 32058880 33148872 33588850 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Mar 14 03:41:58 2006 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Mon, 13 Mar 2006 22:41:58 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <20060314034453.DFA13D4A5C@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 140344 SWOMCD SPC MCD 140343 TNZ000-NCZ000-GAZ000-ALZ000-140515- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0292 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0943 PM CST MON MAR 13 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN TN...NWRN GA THROUGH NERN AND CNTRL AL CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 90...91... VALID 140343Z - 140515Z LIMITED SEVERE THREAT MAY CONTINUE FROM ERN TN..INTO NWRN GA AND PARTS OF CNTRL AL NEXT COUPLE HOURS OR SO. HOWEVER...EXPECT TREND TO BE FOR THREAT TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH THROUGH 05Z AND WW 90 AND 91 WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE. THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE IN PRE-FRONTAL WARM SECTOR FROM ERN TN SWWD THROUGH CNTRL AL. ACTIVITY IS CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH THE NARROW AXIS OF MARGINAL INSTABILITY. THOUGH BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW AND VERTICAL SHEAR REMAIN STRONG...TRENDS SHOULD BE FOR THE LOW LEVEL FLOW TO GRADUALLY VEER AS A DEEP SURFACE LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES LIFTS NEWD INTO SERN CANADA. LATEST SURFACE AND VWP DATA ALREADY SHOW THE LOW LEVEL FLOW STARTING TO VEER IN GA DOWNSTREAM FROM THE ONGOING STORMS. A LIMITED THREAT FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES AND DAMAGING WIND MAY PERSIST A WHILE LONGER. HOWEVER...STORMS ARE EXPECTED CONTINUE AN OVERALL WEAKENING TREND AS THEY MOVE TOWARD A MORE STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER. ..DIAL.. 03/14/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MRX...FFC...OHX...BMX...HUN... 33058717 35338557 35818483 36318329 32968614 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Mar 14 19:26:46 2006 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Tue, 14 Mar 2006 14:26:46 -0500 Subject: [MCD] {Spam?} SWOMCD Message-ID: <20060314192939.C1B2AD4A7D@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 141929 SWOMCD SPC MCD 141928 CAZ000-142100- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0293 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0128 PM CST TUE MAR 14 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...SACRAMENTO VALLEY OF CENTRAL/NRN CA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 141928Z - 142100Z A FEW STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY EVENING...POSING A LOCAL/MARGINAL SEVERE THREAT. RECENT LIGHTNING STRIKES INDICATE THAT MARGINAL AIRMASS DESTABILIZATION HAS OCCURRED ACROSS THE CENTRAL/NRN SACRAMENTO VALLEY...CONFIRMING LATEST RUC SOUNDINGS SHOWING 200-400 J/KG MOST-UNSTABLE CAPE EVOLVING AS UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES THE COAST. WITH 35 TO 40 KT FLOW AT 600 MB -- NEAR THE MIDDLE OF THE UNSTABLE LAYER -- ABOVE LOW-LEVEL VEERING WITH HEIGHT...SHEAR SUPPORTIVE OF A FEW STRONGER/ROTATING UPDRAFTS IS INDICATED. THEREFORE...EXPECT MARGINALLY-SEVERE HAIL WITH STRONGEST CELLS...AND PERHAPS A FUNNEL CLOUD OR BRIEF/WEAK TORNADO TOUCHDOWN. GIVEN STRONGLY DIURNAL NATURE OF CONVECTIVE THREAT...EXPECT ANY SEVERE POTENTIAL TO WANE AFTER SUNSET. ..GOSS.. 03/14/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...HNX...STO...MTR... 40382270 39022226 38102210 37652146 36382054 36511979 37091954 38052053 39562132 40352201 40772225 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat Mar 18 11:24:10 2006 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Sat, 18 Mar 2006 06:24:10 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <20060318112710.8D003D45E0@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 181126 SWOMCD SPC MCD 181126 TXZ000-181200- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0302 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0526 AM CST SAT MAR 18 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF SW AND WEST CENTRAL TX CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 181126Z - 181200Z WW MAY BE NEEDED...IF STORM COVERAGE BEGINS TO INCREASE THE NEXT FEW HOURS. HAIL EXPECTED TO BE THE PRIMARY THREAT WITH STORMS DEVELOPING ACROSS SW/W INTO PARTS OF CENTRAL TX. EARLY MORNING SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATED A BOUNDARY EXTENDING WWD FROM SOUTH CENTRAL TX TO NEAR DRT AND THEN INTO NRN CHIHUAHUA MEXICO WEST OF THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY. WSR-88D VAD DATA AT DRT INDICATED SSELY LLJ HAD STRENGTHENED TO NEAR 55 KT DURING THE LAST HOUR TRANSPORTING VERY MOIST AIR MASS NWD ATOP THE COOLER LOW-LEVEL AIR MASS LOCATED NORTH OF THE SURFACE BOUNDARY. STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ALREADY IN PLACE COMBINED WITH INCREASING LOW-LEVEL WARM AIR AND MOISTURE ADVECTION HAS AIDED IN A FEW INTENSIFYING STORMS FROM PECOS COUNTY ENEWD TO BROWN COUNTY. QUESTIONS REMAIN AS TO HOW WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE WILL BE THIS MORNING. MID-UPPER LEVEL RIDGING EVIDENT ACROSS THIS REGION PER WATER VAPOR IMAGERY WOULD SUGGEST A FEW STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITHIN WAA REGIME AS HAS ALREADY BEEN INDICATED PER REGIONAL RADARS. SHORT TERM MODELS INDICATE LLJ BEING STRONGEST THROUGH 12Z THEN WEAKENING AS IT VEERS TO SSWLY. THIS WOULD SUGGEST THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS SHOULD REMAIN LIMITED. DESPITE THESE FACTORS... MODERATE ELEVATED INSTABILITY/VERY STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND STRONG EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR VALUES WILL SUPPORT HAIL WITH THE STRONGEST...THOUGH LIKELY REMAINING ISOLATED...STORMS. ..PETERS.. 03/18/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...FWD...EWX...SJT...LUB...MAF... 30480292 31400302 32850252 33060061 32489936 31479879 30509921 30010052 30210233 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat Mar 18 12:29:52 2006 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Sat, 18 Mar 2006 07:29:52 -0500 Subject: [MCD] {Spam?} SWOMCD Message-ID: <20060318123252.55F5ED4702@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 181232 SWOMCD SPC MCD 181231 TXZ000-OKZ000-181300- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0303 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0631 AM CST SAT MAR 18 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF WEST TX/FAR SW OK CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 181231Z - 181300Z WW BEING CONSIDERED FOR PARTS OF WEST TX INTO FAR SW OK. DESPITE APPARENT RIDGING ACROSS THE SRN HIGH PLAINS INTO WRN OK ATTM...RECENT INCREASE IN TSTM COVERAGE INTO SRN PARTS OF THE TX PANHANDLE AND GREATER INSTABILITY NOTED ON 12Z AMA/MAF SOUNDINGS THAN PER EARLIER SHORT TERM MODELS SUGGEST POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL STORM DEVELOPMENT...SOME STRONG TO SEVERE...IS INCREASING. MUCAPE 1000-1500 J/KG AND EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR VALUES ARE SUFFICIENT FOR ORGANIZED STORMS WITH HAIL BEING THE PRIMARY THREAT...GIVEN ELEVATED NATURE OF ACTIVITY AND VERY STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES /8+ C/KM/. ..PETERS.. 03/18/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...SJT...LUB...AMA...MAF... 31350188 33210214 34660202 35020125 35169992 34629925 32699896 31569907 31240043 31210160 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat Mar 18 15:25:08 2006 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Sat, 18 Mar 2006 10:25:08 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <20060318152832.00F15D4703@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 181526 SWOMCD SPC MCD 181526 TXZ000-OKZ000-181800- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0304 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0926 AM CST SAT MAR 18 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...NWRN TX/SWRN OK CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 181526Z - 181800Z POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL APPEARS TO BE INCREASING ACROSS PORTIONS OF NWRN TX AND SWRN OK THIS MORNING. A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MAY BE NEEDED ACROSS THE REGION IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. DEEP CONVECTION HAS BEEN INCREASING ACROSS THE TX PANHANDLE AND SOUTH OF THE RED RIVER THIS MORNING WITHIN ZONE OF STRONG SLOPED/ISENTROPIC ASCENT. A LARGE MCS WAS ALSO EVIDENT IN RADAR AND SATELLITE IMAGERY ACROSS TAYLOR...CALLAHAN...COMANCHE...AND EASTLAND COUNTIES IN NCNTRL TX. THIS COMPLEX OF STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE TOWARD THE WRN PORTIONS OF THE DFW METROPLEX BEFORE NOON CST. UNLIKE YESTERDAY...WHEN ELEVATED STORMS WEAKENED THROUGH THE LATE MORNING AS LLJ DIMINISHED...ACTIVITY TODAY IS EXPECTED TO BE SUSTAINED BY MORE FAVORABLE LARGE SCALE FORCING. LATEST ENSEMBLE MEAN FCST INDICATES THAT MASS INFLOW ON MODEST LLJ WILL PERSIST FROM NWRN TX TO THE RED RIVER THROUGH THE DAY AS MID LEVEL FLOW AND UPPER DIFFLUENCE STRENGTHEN ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS. MORNING SOUNDINGS FROM AMA AND MAF DISPLAYED STEEP 3-6KM LAPSE RATES OF 7.6C IN ELEVATED MIXED LAYER ALONG WITH EFFECTIVE SHEAR IN EXCESS OF 60KT. GIVEN THE LIKELIHOOD OF INCREASING CONVECTION WITHIN STRENGTHENING WARM CONVEYOR...COUPLED WITH UPSTREAM LAPSE RATES AND SHEAR...THE CHANCE FOR ELEVATED AND EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS PRODUCING SEVERE HAIL SHOULD INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY. THIS POTENTIAL WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED AND A WATCH MAY BE NEEDED FOR PARTS OF THE AREA. ..CARBIN.. 03/18/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...SJT...LUB...AMA...MAF... 31940044 32810148 34400240 34980179 35020021 34669891 33899675 32489615 31709702 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat Mar 18 19:28:05 2006 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Sat, 18 Mar 2006 14:28:05 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <20060318193104.D1786D4702@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 181930 SWOMCD SPC MCD 181930 TXZ000-OKZ000-182130- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0305 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0130 PM CST SAT MAR 18 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...NWRN AND NCNTRL TX CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 93... VALID 181930Z - 182130Z SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL REMAIN A THREAT FROM THE SRN TX PANHANDLE/SOUTH PLAINS EAST TO THE RED RIVER VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON. OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS ACROSS NCNTRL TX...A PARTICULARLY PERSISTENT STORM HAS TRACKED FROM HILL COUNTY EWD TO NAVARRO COUNTY AND WILL CONTINUE EAST ACROSS THE ERN PORTIONS OF WW 93. THIS CELL IS PART OF A LARGER COMPLEX OF DEEP CONVECTION THAT WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE HEAVY RAIN AND SOME HAIL ACROSS NERN TX THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. FARTHER UPSTREAM...GENERALLY WEAK STORM UPDRAFTS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP WITHIN ELEVATED FRONTAL ZONE WELL NORTH AND REMOVED FROM CAPPED SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY SITUATED FROM THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY NWD ACROSS THE PECOS VALLEY. LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY WAS DEPICTING EXTENSIVE BAROCLINIC LEAF PATTERN EVOLVING AHEAD OF VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE LOWER CO RIVER VALLEY. BELT OF STRENGTHENING SWLY MID LEVEL FLOW ON THE SERN FLANK OF THE LARGE SCALE TROUGH AXIS WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD ACROSS TX/OK THROUGH THE EVENING AND SHOULD ENHANCE DEEP LAYER ASCENT AND SHEAR ATOP PERSISTENT WARM/MOIST CONVEYOR BELT. GIVEN THE LARGE SCALE FORCING...STORMS SHOULD CONTINUE TO DEVELOP WITHIN THE LOW THROUGH MID LEVEL FRONTAL ZONE WHERE INSTABILITY AND SHEAR WILL REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL. ..CARBIN.. 03/18/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...SJT...LUB...MAF... 31439588 32570216 34740252 33629583 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat Mar 18 23:12:46 2006 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Sat, 18 Mar 2006 18:12:46 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <20060318231544.9E023D4AA0@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 182314 SWOMCD SPC MCD 182313 TXZ000-NMZ000-190115- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0306 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0513 PM CST SAT MAR 18 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS W TX AND EXTREME SERN NM CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 182313Z - 190115Z ADDITIONAL TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND INTENSIFY ACROSS AREA FROM PECOS RIVER EWD AND ENEWD ACROSS W-CENTRAL TX THROUGH EARLY EVENING...LARGE HAIL BEING PRIMARY THREAT. AREA IS BEING MONITORED FOR POSSIBLE WW. REFLECTIVITY ANIMATIONS AND LTG DATA SHOW BAND OF MIDLEVEL TSTMS MOVING ENEWD 25-30 KT BETWEEN CNM-MRF...W OF FRONT AND DRYLINE. THIS REPRESENTS ZONE OF ENHANCED LARGE SCALE UVV EJECTING NEWD FROM BASE OF SYNOPTIC TROUGH. SFC MESOANALYSIS SHOWS QUASISTATIONARY FRONTAL ZONE FROM NRN PORTIONS SAT AREA WNWWD...GENERALLY ALONG I-10 TO WITHIN ABOUT 10 S FST...THEN NWWD TOWARD GDP AREA. LITTLE MOVEMENT OF THIS BOUNDARY AT SFC IS EXPECTED NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...THOUGH ITS SLOPE ABOVE SFC MAY BECOME SLIGHTLY MORE SHALLOW FARTHER N OVER PERMIAN BASIN/CONCHO VALLEY REGION. WEAK MESOLOW IS EVIDENT INVOF FST. AS MID/UPPER LEVEL PERTURBATION MOVES INTO AREA...EXPECT CONVECTION TO ENCOUNTER MORE FAVORABLE LOW LEVEL WAA...RICHER MOISTURE AND STRONGER STORM-RELATIVE INFLOW ATOP FRONTAL LAYER. ELEVATED MUCAPES WILL INCREASE WITH EWD EXTENT FROM MAF THROUGH SJT AREAS...REACHING AROUND 1000 J/KG. MODIFIED RUC SOUNDINGS AND VWP/PROFILER WINDS SUGGEST 50-60 KT DEEP-LAYER/EFFECTIVE SHEAR ROOTED AROUND 850 MB. ..EDWARDS.. 03/18/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...SJT...LUB...MAF... 30700291 30930358 31720396 32040385 32470378 33030357 33270211 33030074 32460017 31769998 31030017 30320106 30520252 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun Mar 19 02:02:21 2006 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Sat, 18 Mar 2006 21:02:21 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <20060319020518.C06B7D4A9D@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 190204 SWOMCD SPC MCD 190204 SDZ000-NEZ000-190600- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0307 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0804 PM CST SAT MAR 18 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...WRN SD/WRN AND CNTRL NEB CONCERNING...PRECIPITATION TRENDS...WINTER PRECIPITATION VALID 190204Z - 190600Z ...WINTER PRECIPITATION WILL BEGIN AS A MIX OF FZRA/FZDZ ACROSS WRN SD AND PORTIONS OF WRN AND CNTRL NEB BEFORE CHANGING TO SNOW LATER TONIGHT... LATEST WV IMAGERY SHOWS STRONG UPPER LOW MOVING INTO NRN AZ/SRN UT THIS EVENING. INCREASING PVA AHEAD OF THE UPPER LOW WILL FOCUS A BROAD AREA OF LARGE SCALE ASCENT ACROSS THE NRN HIGH PLAINS WHERE HEAVY SNOW WILL DEVELOP LATER TONIGHT. MEANWHILE...MAINLY LIGHT SNOW CONTINUES ACROSS PORTIONS OF ND AND ERN SD ALONG A WEAK DEFORMATION BAND NEAR 700MB. WEST OF THIS ZONE...LIGHT FREEZING RAIN WAS FALLING. 00Z SOUNDING AT RAPID CITY INDICATED A SATURATED SUB-FREEZING LAYER FROM THE SFC TO AROUND 750MB...WITH A DRY LAYER ABOVE. TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW LAYERS ARE NOT COLD ENOUGH /I.E. BELOW -10C/ FOR THE AIRMASS TO CONTAIN ICE CRYSTALS NECESSARY FOR SNOW...SO A PERIOD OF FZRA/FZDZ WILL CONTINUE UNTIL THE COLUMN COMPLETELY SATURATES AND COOLS FURTHER. STRONG LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION IS OCCURRING ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA AHEAD OF APPROACHING UPPER SYSTEM. A LARGE AREA OF LOW CLOUDS ACROSS NEB/SD EARLIER IN THE DAY /PARTIALLY IN RESPONSE TO THE UPSLOPE FLOW/ RESTRICTED DIURNAL HEATING...SO HIGH TEMPS WERE ONLY IN THE LOW/MID 30S ACROSS SD/NEB...AND THIS WILL MAKE A DIFFERENCE WITH REGARD TO RAIN OR FREEZING RAIN IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. SFC WET BULB TEMPS ARE IN THE MID 20S TO LOW 30S ACROSS WRN SD...SO MAIN PTYPE WILL BE FZRA/FZDZ. AMOUNTS WILL NOT BE HEAVY...BUT FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST FREEZING PCPN MAY PERSIST FOR 2-4 HOURS BEFORE CHANGING TO SNOW. ACROSS WRN NEB...MAIN PTYPE WILL BE RAIN...EXCEPT IN AREAS WHERE TEMPS FALL TO 32F OR BELOW. HEAVIER PCPN WILL BEGIN IN EARNEST AFTER 05-06Z. ..TAYLOR.. 03/19/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...FSD...ABR...LBF...UNR...CYS... 40980133 41110385 42850401 45880385 45900123 44049947 42309865 41159989 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun Mar 19 02:56:15 2006 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Sat, 18 Mar 2006 21:56:15 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <20060319025913.2FB1FD4645@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 190258 SWOMCD SPC MCD 190258 TXZ000-190500- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0308 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0858 PM CST SAT MAR 18 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS W TX CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 94... VALID 190258Z - 190500Z SFC MESOANALYSIS AS OF 245Z SHOWS QUASISTATIONARY FRONT INTERSECTING OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM INITIAL CONVECTION ABOUT 35 ESE FST...NEAR I-10. FRONT EXTENDS ESEWD ACROSS EDWARDS/CROCKETT COUNTIES TOWARD SAT AREA. CLUSTERS OF TSTMS BETWEEN SJT-DRT WILL MOVE NEWD TOWARD WRN/SRN PORTIONS TX HILL COUNTRY WITH POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED DAMAGING GUSTS. ALTHOUGH BOUNDARY LAYER S OF FRONT HAS BEGUN TO COOL DIABATICALLY...MODIFIED DRT RAOB AND RUC SOUNDINGS INDICATE PARCELS ROOTED VERY NEAR SFC...WITH MUCAPE AROUND 1500 J/KG...MINIMAL DOWNWARD INHIBITION FOR OUTFLOW GUSTS. PRESENCE OF AS MUCH AS 75 KT DEEP LAYER SHEAR SUPPORTS POTENTIAL FOR BOTH SUPERCELLS AND BOWS. ANY RELATIVELY DISCRETE/ROTATING STORMS -- SUCH AS APPARENT SUPERCELL IN MIDDLE OF VAL VERDE COUNTY AS OF 255Z -- MAY PRODUCE VERY LARGE/DAMAGING HAIL...AND POTENTIAL FOR A TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT INVOF FRONT. INITIAL BAND OF TSTMS CONTINUES MOVING ENEWD APPROXIMATELY 35 KT AWAY FROM MAF AREA...AFTER PRODUCING SUBSEVERE MEASURED GUSTS THERE. SEVERE WIND POTENTIAL WILL REMAIN MINIMAL WITH THIS ACTIVITY AS IT MOVES OVER PRONOUNCED STATIC STABILITY IN BOUNDARY LAYER N OF SFC FRONT. HOWEVER...OCCASIONAL SUBSEVERE/MARGINALLY DAMAGING GUSTS CANNOT BE RULED OUT...AND HAIL REMAINS POSSIBLE FROM STRONGEST EMBEDDED CELLS. VERTICAL SHEAR REMAINS FAVORABLE FARTHER NE ACROSS ABI/SEP REGION...THOUGH WEAKER AND MORE ELEVATED BUOYANCY MAY LIMIT ORGANIZATION OF CONVECTION. MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL MAY BE POSSIBLE E OF WW ACROSS THIS REGION. ..EDWARDS.. 03/19/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...EWX...SJT...LUB...MAF... 29790203 30350247 30910241 31870206 32740194 33080146 33270023 33419966 33159920 32879905 32089882 31509886 30379873 29749920 29350089 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun Mar 19 04:16:17 2006 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Sat, 18 Mar 2006 23:16:17 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <20060319041914.5BCC0D4A71@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 190415 SWOMCD SPC MCD 190415 TXZ000-190615- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0309 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1015 PM CST SAT MAR 18 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS CENTRAL/N-CENTRAL TX...E OF WW 94 CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...HEAVY RAINFALL VALID 190415Z - 190615Z SEVERE TSTM POTENTIAL MAY SHIFT EWD FROM WW 94 AFTER ABOUT 530Z...BEFORE GRADUAL OVERALL WEAKENING TREND ENSUES. ANOTHER WW MAY BE REQUIRED. ALSO...LOCALIZED RAIN RATES 2-3 INCHES/HOUR ARE POSSIBLE. BOTH ELEVATED BUOYANCY AND VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES ARE FCST TO WEAKEN WITH EWD EXTENT ACROSS CENTRAL/NRN TX...INDICATING GENERAL DECREASE IN ORGANIZED SEVERE THREAT BETWEEN HILL COUNTRY AND AREAS ALONG/E OF I-35. HOWEVER...LARGE HAIL AND STRONG GUSTS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY BETWEEN E EDGE OF WW 94 AND I-35...GIVEN EXTENSIVE COVERAGE OF CONVECTION...AND AT LEAST MARGINALLY FAVORABLE EFFECTIVE SHEAR FOR ELEVATED LIFTED PARCELS. MUCAPES 500-1000 J/KG ARE EXPECTED. STRONGEST STORM-RELATIVE INFLOW WILL BE ALONG SRN PORTIONS OF CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS...GIVEN 35-45 KT SWLY LLJ FCST. RICH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ABOVE FRONTAL SFC CONTRIBUTES TO PW 1.25 INCHES BASED ON GPS DATA...MODIFIED RAOBS AND RUC SOUNDINGS. MERGING AND TRAINING OF CELLS WILL ENHANCE THREAT FROM HEAVY RAIN. ..EDWARDS.. 03/19/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...EWX...SJT... 29849898 30889912 32469959 33189961 33419895 33339797 32849730 32189707 30209760 29689844 29599888 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun Mar 19 07:21:38 2006 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Sun, 19 Mar 2006 02:21:38 -0500 Subject: [MCD] {Spam?} SWOMCD Message-ID: <20060319072435.1CEB9D4703@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 190723 SWOMCD SPC MCD 190723 TXZ000-190800- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0311 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0123 AM CST SUN MAR 19 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF THE TX BIG BEND REGION AND THE EDWARDS PLATEAU/HILL COUNTRY CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 94... VALID 190723Z - 190800Z NEW WW BEING CONSIDERED ACROSS PARTS OF THE TX BIG BEND REGION AND THE EDWARDS PLATEAU/HILL COUNTRY OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. REGIONAL RADARS/MESO-ANALYSIS INDICATED THE MOST RECENT CONVECTIVE COMPLEX WHICH HAD DEVELOPED AROUND 05Z OVER PARTS OF SW/CENTRAL TX SHOULD CONTINUE TO TRACK TO THE E/ESE DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. STRONG EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR VALUES COMBINED WITH SLY LLJ PROVIDING AN INFLOW OF HIGH THETA-E AIR SUGGESTS THIS COMPLEX SHOULD PERSIST WITH SUSTAINED ROTATING UPDRAFTS PRODUCING PRIMARILY LARGE HAIL. THE STRONGEST STORMS AT THIS TIME WERE LOCATED ACROSS CROCKETT INTO SUTTON COUNTIES...WITH THIS ACTIVITY LOCATED CLOSEST TO THE SURFACE BOUNDARY AND OUTFLOW BOUNDARY INDICATING POTENTIAL FOR AN ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT...GIVEN ENHANCED LOW-LEVEL SHEAR VALUES LIKELY ALONG THESE BOUNDARIES. ..PETERS.. 03/19/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...FWD...EWX...SJT...MAF... 30010242 30570187 31270074 31329918 31129765 29349833 29259962 29540134 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun Mar 19 10:46:07 2006 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Sun, 19 Mar 2006 05:46:07 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <20060319104903.B28A1D4645@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 191048 SWOMCD SPC MCD 191047 TXZ000-191215- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0312 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0447 AM CST SUN MAR 19 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF SOUTH CENTRAL TX CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 95... VALID 191047Z - 191215Z GREATEST SEVERE THREAT IS EXPECTED TO BE ALONG THE SRN PERIPHERY OF THE CENTRAL TX CONVECTIVE COMPLEX THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THE POTENTIAL FOR AN ISOLATED TORNADO REMAINS...GIVEN PROXIMITY OF STRONGEST STORMS...AT THIS TIME...NEAR THE SURFACE BOUNDARY. HAIL IS ALSO A THREAT. 10Z MESO-ANALYSIS INDICATED THE WARM FRONT EXTENDED GENERALLY WWD FROM THE UPPER TX COAST TO AROUND DRT...WHILE AN INVERTED TROUGH EXTENDED FROM NNW OF DRT NEWD INTO CENTRAL TX /35 W TPL/ AND THEN ENEWD TO EAST CENTRAL TX. REGIONAL RADARS/SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED THE SRN EXTENT OF THE CENTRAL TX CONVECTIVE COMPLEX WAS LOCATED ALONG/N OF THE INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH FROM THE COUNTIES OF EDWARDS TO SAN SABA/LAMPASAS. THIS ACTIVITY WAS TRACKING NEWD PARALLEL TO THE TROUGH SUGGESTING A CONTINUED POTENTIAL FOR STORMS TO ROOT NEAR/ CLOSE TO THE SURFACE FOR AN ATTENDANT THREAT OF AN ISOLATED TORNADO. OTHERWISE...THE THREAT WITH THE STRONGER ELEVATED STORMS WILL PRIMARILY BE HAIL. LATEST WSR-88D VWP DATA FROM DRT INDICATED A WEAKENING TREND IN THE SLY LLJ. THIS COMBINED WITH DECREASING LARGE SCALE ASCENT...AS THE TAIL END OF A CENTRAL PLAINS SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES AWAY FROM CENTRAL TX...WOULD SUGGEST DIMINISHING DEEP LAYER FORCING WITH TIME ACROSS CENTRAL TX. THUS...THE STRONGEST ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN ALONG THE SRN PERIPHERY OF THE CONVECTIVE COMPLEX...CLOSEST TO THE INFLOW OF A RICHER AIR MASS. ..PETERS.. 03/19/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...FWD...EWX...SJT... 29830139 30660136 31549998 31509836 31109736 30049843 29520073 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun Mar 19 11:14:57 2006 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Sun, 19 Mar 2006 06:14:57 -0500 Subject: [MCD] {Spam?} SWOMCD Message-ID: <20060319111753.458A7D4703@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 191117 SWOMCD SPC MCD 191116 NEZ000-SDZ000-191545- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0313 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0516 AM CST SUN MAR 19 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...WESTERN/SOUTH CENTRAL SD AND NORTH CENTRAL/NORTHEAST NEB CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW VALID 191116Z - 191545Z MODERATE/LOCALLY HEAVY SNOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS WESTERN/SOUTH CENTRAL SD AND NORTH CENTRAL INTO NORTHEAST NEB THROUGH MID MORNING. SNOW RATES MAY REACH 1 IN/HR THROUGH 15Z...ESPECIALLY ACROSS WEST CENTRAL/SOUTH CENTRAL SD AND NORTH CENTRAL NEB. ON PERIPHERY OF WESTERN STATES BROAD TROUGH...SEVERAL SUBTLE SHORTWAVE IMPULSES PER WV IMAGERY...LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION...AND COUPLED UPPER JET STRUCTURE ARE CONTRIBUTING TO NORTHWEST-SOUTHEAST ORIENTED PRECIPITATION SHIELD THIS MORNING FROM WEST CENTRAL SD TO SOUTHEAST NEB. WHILE CURRENT TRENDS/SHORT TERM MODELS SUGGEST A MODEST NORTHEASTWARD TRANSITION OF THE HEAVIER SNOW THROUGH EARLY MORNING...INFLUENCE OF NORTHERN PLAINS HIGH PRESSURE AND LOW LEVEL DRY ADVECTION WILL TEND TO HINDER LOW LEVEL SATURATION...LEADING TO A SHARP DEMARKATION OF THE HEAVIER SNOW THIS MORNING ACROSS CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST SD INTO NORTHEAST NEB. THE MOST FAVORED CORRIDOR FOR MODERATE/LOCALIZED HEAVY SNOW THROUGH MID MORNING WILL LIKELY BE ALONG A PHILIP SD TO AINSWORTH-O'NEILL-COLUMBUS NEB AXIS. WITHIN THIS CORRIDOR...RUC SOUNDINGS DEPICT A SUSTAINED DURATION OF AMPLE UVVS JUXTAPOSED WITH A SATURATED DENDRITIC LAYER...IN ADDITION TO PRESENCE OF MODEST POTENTIAL INSTABILITY. ..GUYER.. 03/19/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...FSD...OAX...ABR...GID...LBF...UNR... 44470341 45130244 44499988 42019723 41179706 40959785 41419929 42490077 43690197 43740312 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun Mar 19 13:53:22 2006 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Sun, 19 Mar 2006 08:53:22 -0500 Subject: [MCD] {Spam?} SWOMCD Message-ID: <20060319135619.1FA46D4A94@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 191355 SWOMCD SPC MCD 191355 TXZ000-191430- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0314 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0755 AM CST SUN MAR 19 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF CENTRAL TX CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 95... VALID 191355Z - 191430Z NEW WW BEING ISSUED FOR PARTS OF CENTRAL TX. 13Z SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATED THE INVERTED TROUGH EXTENDED NEWD THROUGH THE COUNTIES OF EDWARDS TO GILLESPIE/SRN BURNET TO EAST CENTRAL TX. SRN SEVERE STORM...NOW OVER GILLESPIE COUNTY... REMAINED NEAR THIS BOUNDARY WITH CONTINUED INDICATIONS OF LOW-LEVEL ROTATION. ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP/MOVE NEWD ALONG THIS BOUNDARY GIVEN ELY SURFACE WINDS ALONG THE TROUGH WILL HAVE THE CAPABILITY TO PRODUCE A TORNADO. UNCERTAINTY REMAINS AT HOW MANY ADDITIONAL STORMS WILL DEVELOP IN THE NEAR SHORT TERM GIVEN LIMITED NEW STORM INITIATION PER CURRENT UPSTREAM RADAR TRENDS. MEANWHILE...LEFT SPLITTING SUPERCELL /WHICH SPLIT A SECOND TIME/ WITH RESPECTIVE LEFT AND RIGHT MOVING STORMS NOW LOCATED OVER CONCHO AND MASON COUNTIES RESPECTIVELY ARE LIKELY ELEVATED GIVEN DISTANCE FROM INVERTED TROUGH. THESE STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE LARGE HAIL. ANOTHER STORM HAS FORMED FARTHER WNW OVER REAGAN COUNTY. THIS NEW STORM ALONG WITH ANY NEW DEVELOPMENT WNW OF SURFACE TROUGH SHOULD REMAIN AN ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT...AT LEAST THROUGH MID MORNING...AS INCREASING LARGE SCALE ASCENT/WAA DEVELOPS NEWD AHEAD OF SHORT WAVE TROUGH/SPEED MAX NOW ENTERING FAR W TX. ..PETERS.. 03/19/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...FWD...EWX...SJT...MAF... 29830179 30870197 31860138 32389988 32279739 31829598 30069764 29799893 29250074 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun Mar 19 16:10:04 2006 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Sun, 19 Mar 2006 11:10:04 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <20060319161259.5CF88D4A96@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 191612 SWOMCD SPC MCD 191612 LAZ000-TXZ000-191745- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0315 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1012 AM CST SUN MAR 19 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL TO NERN TX CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 96... VALID 191612Z - 191745Z ISOLATED VIGOROUS STORMS...SOME WITH HAIL...WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO DEVELOP WITHIN ELEVATED FRONTAL ZONE ACROSS CNTRL AND ERN TX THROUGH THIS MORNING. A NEW WATCH OVER THIS AREA DOES NOT APPEAR IMMINENT. EXTENSIVE LARGE SCALE TROUGH ACROSS THE WRN U.S. CONTINUES TO PROMOTE A BROAD REGION OF STRONG ISENTROPIC ASCENT ACROSS TX THIS MORNING. LOW AMPLITUDE IMPULSES EJECTING NEWD FROM THE LARGER SCALE TROUGH...COUPLED WITH DIURNAL STRENGTHENING OF LOW LEVEL JET...CONTINUE TO AID MCS DEVELOPMENT FROM THE PECOS VALLEY TO THE HILL COUNTRY. ONE SUCH DISTURBANCE WAS RESULTING IN THE CLUSTER OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS CURRENTLY FROM CONCHO COUNTY TO CORYELL AND BELL COUNTY. THIS ACTIVITY IS ROOTED AROUND 800MB BASED ON LATEST RUC SOUNDINGS AND STRONG EFFECTIVE SHEAR WAS LEADING TO PERSISTENT UPDRAFTS AND SUPERCELL STRUCTURE IN A FEW OF THE STORMS. ELEVATED NATURE OF THE CONVECTION...AND SOMEWHAT MARGINAL LAPSE RATES IN THE WAKE OF WIDESPREAD CONVECTION OVER THE PAST DAYS WOULD SUGGEST THAT THE HAIL POTENTIAL FROM THIS CONVECTION SHOULD REMAIN LIMITED AS IT CONTINUES TO SPREAD ENEWD THROUGH THE MORNING. ADDITIONAL UPSTREAM PERTURBATIONS EJECTING NEWD FROM THE LARGER SCALE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE MODEST TO STRONG FORCING FOR ASCENT ACROSS MUCH OF TX THROUGH THE DAY. RESULTING STRONG MASS AND MOISTURE FLUX...AND INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE INFLOW ACROSS THE DEEP FRONTAL ZONE OVER THE REGION...WILL LIKELY LEAD TO MORE WIDESPREAD INTENSE TSTMS LATER TODAY. ..CARBIN.. 03/19/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...SHV...HGX...FWD...EWX...SJT... 31229538 30879653 30569777 30499911 30579979 31050025 31579989 32069908 32969613 33139494 33039417 32389391 31549416 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun Mar 19 18:15:01 2006 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Sun, 19 Mar 2006 13:15:01 -0500 Subject: [MCD] {Spam?} SWOMCD Message-ID: <20060319181755.E7C34D45E0@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 191816 SWOMCD SPC MCD 191815 TXZ000-192015- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0316 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1215 PM CST SUN MAR 19 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...WCNTRL TX CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 191815Z - 192015Z TSTMS WERE BEGINNING TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE FROM THE TRANS PECOS TO THE NWRN HILL COUNTRY OF WCNTRL TX. A WATCH MAY BE NEEDED FOR PARTS OF THIS AREA THIS AFTERNOON. SCATTERED TSTMS PERSIST ACROSS PARTS OF WRN TX EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. MUCH OF THIS CONVECTION REMAINS ELEVATED ATOP COOL/STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER AND WAS BEING SUPPORTED BY STRONG ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE OCCURRING TO THE NORTH OF SURFACE WARM FRONT. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND SHORT TERM MODEL GUIDANCE APPEAR TO SUGGEST THAT THE NEXT MID/UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WAS EJECTING OUT OF THE BASE OF THE LARGE SCALE TROUGH AND WAS MOVING ENEWD ACROSS WEST TX/SRN NM ATTM. IN RESPONSE TO THIS MID LEVEL FORCING... EXPECT LOW LEVEL ASCENT TO STRENGTHEN ACROSS THE WARM FRONT OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. PARCELS WITHIN THIS STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL ORIGINATE FROM WARM AND VERY MOIST AIR MASS ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE WARM FRONT AND SHOULD CONTRIBUTE TO INCREASINGLY VIGOROUS TSTM DEVELOPMENT. EFFECTIVE SHEAR WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT UPDRAFT PERSISTENCE AND ROTATION WITH EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS POSING A THREAT OF LARGE HAIL. SURFACE-BASED STORM INITIATION ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE WARM FRONT STILL APPEARS POSSIBLE LATER THIS AFTERNOON GIVEN MAGNITUDE OF LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT CONTRIBUTING TO PERSISTENT LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE. HOWEVER...WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER HAS SO FAR GREATLY INHIBITED SURFACE HEATING NEAR THE BOUNDARY AND CAPPING WILL PROBABLY HOLD FOR AT LEAST A FEW MORE HOURS. SOME BREAKS IN THE DENSE CI ARE STARTING TO APPEAR ACROSS THE BIG BEND AREA AND MAY SPREAD EAST ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. ..CARBIN.. 03/19/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...FWD...SJT...MAF... 31399890 30779930 30380320 31100280 31570224 32470070 32499940  From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun Mar 19 19:27:13 2006 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Sun, 19 Mar 2006 14:27:13 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <20060319193007.5839CD45E0@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 191928 SWOMCD SPC MCD 191928 COZ000-NMZ000-192200- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0317 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0128 PM CST SUN MAR 19 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...NERN NM AND SERN CO CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 191928Z - 192200Z CHANCE FOR WIDELY SCATTERED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS APPEARS TO BE INCREASING OVER PARTS OF NERN NM AND SERN CO THIS AFTERNOON. A FEW STORMS COULD PRODUCE HAIL TO ABOUT 1 INCH IN DIAMETER. VERY STRONG LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH AGEOSTROPHIC ADJUSTMENTS WITHIN EXIT REGION OF MID LEVEL JET WILL CONTINUE TO OVERSPREAD THE SRN HIGH PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE...MODEST SURFACE HEATING IN THE WAKE OF HIGH LEVEL BAROCLINIC CLOUD BAND...COUPLED WITH MOIST UPSLOPE FLOW...WERE CONTRIBUTING TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF WEAK INSTABILITY ACROSS THE AREA. LACK OF GREATER MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO LIMIT MLCAPE TO AOB 500 J/KG. HOWEVER...THE COMBINATION OF STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND STRONG FORCING AND EFFECTIVE SHEAR SHOULD OFFSET THE LIMITED INSTABILITY AND AID IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED LOW-TOPPED BUT STRONG THUNDERSTORMS. A FEW OF THESE STORMS COULD BRIEFLY REACH SEVERE LEVELS WITH HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS. ..CARBIN.. 03/19/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...GLD...PUB...BOU...ABQ... 35530332 34350346 33370497 33540573 35280543 36060556 37880492 39090466 39450391 39180336 38320296 36830318  From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun Mar 19 21:04:30 2006 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Sun, 19 Mar 2006 16:04:30 -0500 Subject: [MCD] {Spam?} SWOMCD Message-ID: <20060319210725.2E4DED4A94@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 192103 SWOMCD SPC MCD 192102 TXZ000-192300- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0318 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0302 PM CST SUN MAR 19 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...SCNTRL TX CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 192102Z - 192300Z SURFACE-BASED TSTMS WITH ATTENDANT THREAT OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE OVER PARTS OF SCNTRL TX THROUGH THIS EVENING. A WATCH WILL BE ISSUED SHORTLY. COMPLICATED FORECAST SCENARIO PERSISTS ACROSS TX LATE THIS AFTERNOON AS FAST MOVING MID LEVEL DISTURBANCES CONTINUE TO EJECT NEWD OUT OF LARGE SCALE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE WEST. STRONGEST OF THESE DISTURBANCES WAS CURRENTLY ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH ACROSS SERN AZ/SWRN NM. INCREASINGLY DIFFLUENT MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL AID LARGE SCALE LIFT ACROSS TX THROUGH THE EVENING. AT THE SURFACE...WAVY FRONTAL ZONE STRETCHES FROM FAR WEST TX EWD ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY AND WAS REINFORCED IN VARIOUS LOCATIONS BY CONVECTIVELY COOLED BOUNDARY LAYER AIR MASS TO THE NORTH. MOST RECENT CONVECTIVE COMPLEX...NEAR CONCHO COUNTY... APPEARS ANCHORED NEAR FRONT/OUTFLOW INTERSECTION WHERE WEAK FRONTAL WAVE WAS LIKELY ENHANCING INFLOW INTO ELEVATED CONVECTIVE PLUME. STRONG LIFT ON THE LEADING EDGE OF NEXT UPSTREAM PERTURBATION APPEARS TO NOW BE PROMOTING RAPID TSTM DEVELOPMENT OVER PECOS AND CROCKETT COUNTIES. THIS ACTIVITY APPEARS TO BE TAPPING GREATER INSTABILITY AND MAY BECOME SEVERE SHORTLY. ADDITIONAL SURFACE-BASED STORMS APPEAR LIKELY OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS LARGE SCALE FORCING CONTINUES TO ACT ON UNSTABLE AIR ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE SURFACE BOUNDARY. SHEAR AND FORCING WILL BE MORE THAN ADEQUATE FOR SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL AND WIND DAMAGE BECOMING INCREASINGLY LIKELY ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR THIS EVENING. ..CARBIN.. 03/19/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...FWD...EWX...SJT...MAF... 29410061 29930245 30340238 30990154 31210041 31319947 31509722 30539740 29889777  From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun Mar 19 23:27:47 2006 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Sun, 19 Mar 2006 18:27:47 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <20060319233044.A58B7D4A94@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 192328 SWOMCD SPC MCD 192328 NEZ000-KSZ000-SDZ000-COZ000-WYZ000-200530- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0319 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0528 PM CST SUN MAR 19 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...NEB/NRN KS/NE CO/SE WY/SRN SD CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW VALID 192328Z - 200530Z ...MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW WILL DEVELOP/CONTINUE ACROSS CNTRL NEB THROUGH THE EVENING...WITH HRLY SNOW RATES AT LEAST 1-2 INCHES PER HOUR /PSBLY HIGHER IN CONVECTIVE BURSTS/. HEAVY SNOW WILL DEVELOP WITHIN A FEW HOURS ACROSS NE COLORADO... LATEST SATELLITE/RADAR LOOPS INDICATE PRECIPITATION IS INCREASING ACROSS THE PLAINS WITHIN STRONGLY DIFFLUENT UPPER FLOW PATTERN. TSTMS HAVE BEEN ONGOING IN KS THIS AFTN AND ARE SPREADING NWD INTO NEB WITH TSSN OBSERVED WITHIN THE LAST HOUR OR TWO AT MCCOOK NEB. 18Z SOUNDING AT LAMONT OK SEEMS TO HAVE SAMPLED THE ELEVATED INSTABILITY WELL...SO ISOLD LTG STRIKES WILL CONTINUE AND CONVECTIVELY ENHANCE SNOW RATES THROUGH THE EVENING. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ACROSS SCNTRL NEB SUGGEST STEEP ELEVATED LAPSE RATES NEAR AND MUCAPE RANGING FROM 100-300 J/KG. LARGE SCALE LIFT INCREASES DRAMATICALLY ACROSS THE CNTRL PLAINS AFTER 00Z AS MAIN VORT MAX NOW OVER NW MEXICO APPROACHES. IN ADDITION TO THE STRONG LARGE SCALE FORCING...LOW LEVEL THETAE ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC LIFT ACROSS MID LEVEL FRONTAL SFC WILL RESULT IN A LARGE AREA OF HEAVY PCPN. HEAVIEST SNOWS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS WILL FALL FROM SCNTRL SD THROUGH SRN/SERN PORTIONS OF NEB. NCEP SREF GUIDANCE SUGGESTS AT LEAST 1 INCH/HOUR SNOW RATES ALONG THIS AXIS...WHICH WILL PERSIST WELL INTO THE OVERNIGHT. SHALLOW WARM INVERSION NOW IN PLACE ACROSS SW NEB/NE CO IS RESULTING IN FZRA AT AKO AND IML. STRONG WAA MAY MAINTAIN THIS FOR A TIME...THUS REDUCING OVERALL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS SW NEB. ONCE COLUMN COOLS SUFFICIENTLY...HEAVY SNOW WILL BE MAIN PTYPE ACROSS NE CO. IMPRESSIVE DENVER CYCLONE DEVELOPING WITH VERY STRONG INFLOW NOTED SE OF DEN. SFC WINDS WILL BECOME MORE NELY WITH TIME THIS EVENING...WHICH WILL FAVORABLY ENHANCE UPSLOPE SNOWS INVOF OF THE PALMER DIVIDE. THANKS TO WFO LBF FOR COORD. ..TAYLOR.. 03/19/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...FSD...OAX...TOP...ABR...GID...LBF...UNR...GLD...PUB...BOU...CYS... 39239860 39320159 38820459 39380538 41060591 43030404 43890216 44089977 41259599 40109583 39369677  From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun Mar 19 23:31:07 2006 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Sun, 19 Mar 2006 18:31:07 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <20060319233401.BD7A5D4A94@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 192332 SWOMCD SPC MCD 192331 COR NEZ000-KSZ000-SDZ000-COZ000-WYZ000-200530- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0319 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0531 PM CST SUN MAR 19 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...NEB/NRN KS/NE CO/SE WY/SRN SD CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW VALID 192331Z - 200530Z CORRECTED FOR SECOND PARAGRAPH ...MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW WILL DEVELOP/CONTINUE ACROSS CNTRL NEB THROUGH THE EVENING...WITH HRLY SNOW RATES AT LEAST 1-2 INCHES PER HOUR /PSBLY HIGHER IN CONVECTIVE BURSTS/. HEAVY SNOW WILL DEVELOP WITHIN A FEW HOURS ACROSS NE COLORADO... LATEST SATELLITE/RADAR LOOPS INDICATE PRECIPITATION IS INCREASING ACROSS THE PLAINS WITHIN STRONGLY DIFFLUENT UPPER FLOW PATTERN. TSTMS HAVE BEEN ONGOING IN KS THIS AFTN AND ARE SPREADING NWD INTO NEB WITH TSSN OBSERVED WITHIN THE LAST HOUR OR TWO AT MCCOOK NEB. 18Z SOUNDING AT LAMONT OK SEEMS TO HAVE SAMPLED THE ELEVATED INSTABILITY WELL...SO ISOLD LTG STRIKES WILL CONTINUE AND CONVECTIVELY ENHANCE SNOW RATES THROUGH THE EVENING. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ACROSS SCNTRL NEB SUGGEST STEEP ELEVATED LAPSE RATES NEAR 8 C/KG AND MUCAPE RANGING FROM 100-300 J/KG. LARGE SCALE LIFT INCREASES DRAMATICALLY ACROSS THE CNTRL PLAINS AFTER 00Z AS MAIN VORT MAX NOW OVER NW MEXICO APPROACHES. IN ADDITION TO THE STRONG LARGE SCALE FORCING...LOW LEVEL THETAE ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC LIFT ACROSS MID LEVEL FRONTAL SFC WILL RESULT IN A LARGE AREA OF HEAVY PCPN. HEAVIEST SNOWS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS WILL FALL FROM SCNTRL SD THROUGH CNTRL/SERN PORTIONS OF NEB. NCEP SREF GUIDANCE SUGGESTS AT LEAST 1 INCH/HOUR SNOW RATES ALONG THIS AXIS...WHICH WILL PERSIST WELL INTO THE OVERNIGHT. SHALLOW WARM INVERSION NOW IN PLACE ACROSS SW NEB/NE CO IS RESULTING IN FZRA AT AKO AND IML. STRONG WAA MAY MAINTAIN THIS FOR A TIME...THUS REDUCING OVERALL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS SW NEB. ONCE COLUMN COOLS SUFFICIENTLY...HEAVY SNOW WILL BE MAIN PTYPE ACROSS NE CO. IMPRESSIVE DENVER CYCLONE DEVELOPING WITH VERY STRONG INFLOW NOTED SE OF DEN. SFC WINDS WILL BECOME MORE NELY WITH TIME THIS EVENING...WHICH WILL FAVORABLY ENHANCE UPSLOPE SNOWS INVOF OF THE PALMER DIVIDE. THANKS TO WFO LBF FOR COORD. ..TAYLOR.. 03/19/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...FSD...OAX...TOP...ABR...GID...LBF...UNR...GLD...PUB...BOU...CYS... 39239860 39320159 38820459 39380538 41060591 43030404 43890216 44089977 41259599 40109583 39369677  From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun Mar 19 23:36:55 2006 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Sun, 19 Mar 2006 18:36:55 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <20060319233949.544CDD45E0@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 192336 SWOMCD SPC MCD 192336 TXZ000-200130- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0320 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0536 PM CST SUN MAR 19 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS SW/S-CENTRAL TX CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 97... VALID 192336Z - 200130Z LINE OF SEVERE TSTMS -- INCLUDING APPARENT HEAVY-PRECIP SUPERCELL ON ITS SRN TAIL END -- IS MOVING ENE ABOUT 40 KT ACROSS CROCKETT/IRION COUNTIES AS OF 2330Z. ALTHOUGH SFC OBS ARE SPARSE IN THIS AREA...ANCHORING SUPERCELL APPEARS TO BE JUST N OF QUASISTATIONARY SFC FRONTAL ZONE ANALYZED ALONG LINE FROM BPT...CLL...JCT...15 S FST. SHALLOW AND RELATIVELY STABLE FRONTAL LAYER MAY LIE BENEATH SUPERCELL...HOWEVER EFFECTIVE PARCELS REACH AT OR NEAR SFC IN MODIFIED RUC SOUNDINGS...INDICATING POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE GUSTS AND PERHAPS A TORNADO REMAINS...IN ADDITION TO DAMAGING HAIL. STRONG LOW LEVEL ROTATION HAS BEEN REPORTED BY SPOTTERS WITH THIS STORM PER SJT WARNINGS. AT 2330Z OTHER TSTMS ARE DEVELOPING RAPIDLY ACROSS PORTIONS NRN COAHUILA...FROM SERRANIAS DEL BURRO RANGE NNEWD ACROSS RIO GRANDE VALLEY...AND INTO PORTIONS VAL VERDE COUNTY TX. AIR MASS BETWEEN THIS ACTIVITY AND WARM FRONT WILL FAVOR INTENSIFICATION TO SEVERE LEVELS...WITH SHEAR AND THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES FAVORING BOTH SUPERCELLS AND BOW ECHOES. DRT VWP AND RUC SOUNDINGS EWD TOWARD SAT INDICATE STRONG VEERING WITH HEIGHT AND FAVORABLE HODOGRAPHS...WHICH WILL BE MAXIMIZED ALONG FRONT. ANY RELATIVELY DISCRETE TSTM INTERACTING WITH FRONT MAY TIGHTEN LOW LEVEL MESOCYCLONE AND PRODUCE TORNADOES. LARGER DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS AND HIGHER DCAPE ARE EVIDENT FARTHER SE ACROSS UVA/HDO/COT AREAS..WHERE BOUNDARY LAYER HAS BEEN STRONGLY HEATED AND MIXED. POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR INITIAL ACTIVITY NEAR RIO GRANDE TO ORGANIZE INTO MCS AS INDICATED BY SEVERAL 12Z/18Z MODELS AND 21Z RUC...WITH DERECHO POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS S-CENTRAL/SE TX. SHOULD THIS EVOLUTION BECOME BETTER EVIDENT...ANOTHER WW MAY BE REQUIRED FARTHER E WITHIN A FEW HOURS. ..EDWARDS.. 03/19/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...FWD...EWX...SJT...MAF... 29629850 29219978 29190137 29870144 31570125 31830080 31859865 31109853 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun Mar 19 23:50:59 2006 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Sun, 19 Mar 2006 18:50:59 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <20060319235352.D9E42D48EB@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 192352 SWOMCD SPC MCD 192351 TXZ000-NMZ000-200045- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0321 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0551 PM CST SUN MAR 19 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS E-CENTRAL/SERN NM CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 192351Z - 200045Z WW MAY BE REQUIRED SOON FOR PORTIONS TX/NM BORDER REGION FROM I-40 SWD TOWARD INK REGION. WIDELY SCATTERED TSTMS ARE DEVELOPING FROM CULBERSON COUNTY TX NNEWD TOWARD TCC AREA...IN ZONE OF 250-800 J/KG SBCAPES AND 70-80 KT DEEP-LAYER SHEAR...FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING GUSTS. ALTHOUGH SFC AIR MASS IS COOL WITH TEMPS 50S TO LOW 60S IN PROSPECTIVE INFLOW REGION...COLD AIR ALOFT AND STEEP LAPSE RATES WILL SUPPORT POTENTIAL FOR SFC-BASED TSTMS AS FAR E AS INVOF TX/NM BORDER. ACTIVITY MAY CONTINUE MOVING EWD ATOP PROGRESSIVELY MORE STABLE SFC AIR INTO TX PANHANDLE AND SOUTH PLAINS...WITH CONTINUED RISK OF LARGE HAIL. ..EDWARDS.. 03/19/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LUB...AMA...MAF...ABQ... 31400345 31400385 31580441 32330417 33320403 35020363 35470343 35490309 35210249 33480200 31650256  From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Mar 20 02:52:03 2006 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Sun, 19 Mar 2006 21:52:03 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <20060320025455.C046AD4A94@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 200254 SWOMCD SPC MCD 200254 TXZ000-NMZ000-200500- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0322 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0854 PM CST SUN MAR 19 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS E-CENTRAL/SERN NM...TX TRANS-PECOS REGION NWD THROUGH SOUTH PLAINS TO SWRN TX PANHANDLE. CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 98... VALID 200254Z - 200500Z CONTINUE WW 98. AREA E OF WW 98 WILL BE MONITORED FOR POSSIBLE WW AS WELL. SCATTERED-NUMEROUS TSTMS ARE DEVELOPING ALONG WRN EDGE OF WW AS OF 0230Z...W OF ORIGINAL AND MORE WIDELY SCATTERED ACTIVITY THAT NOW IS MOVING INTO TX. THIS ACTIVITY IS FORMING ALONG COMBINED DRYLINE/FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT NOW APPEARS TO BE MOVING EWD AGAIN FROM ERN PORTIONS CHAVES/EDDY COUNTIES. SEVERE CONCERN IS TRANSITIONING MAINLY TO LARGE HAIL...NOW THAT BOUNDARY LAYER IS COOLING...AND ALSO...WITH ACTIVITY LIKELY TO MOVE OVER PROGRESSIVELY COOLER SFC AIR MASS ADVECTING INTO REGION FROM E. PER COORD WITH MAF...NUMEROUS REPORTS OF MRGLLY SEVERE HAIL WERE RECEIVED IN CNM AREA AROUND 02Z. OCCASIONAL HAIL IS POSSIBLE E OF WW ACROSS REMAINDER S PLAINS REGION AND SRN TX PANHANDLE THROUGH 06Z. RAOB DATA AND FCST SOUNDINGS INDICATE ELEVATED MUCAPES UP TO 500 J/KG ATTM ALONG LBB-MAF LINE...DIMINISHING TO NEAR ZERO ALONG 100 W LONGITUDE...WITH 60-75 KT EFFECTIVE SHEAR. AS DEEP/COLD TROUGH ALOFT OVER GREAT BASIN AND FOREGOING PLUME OF LARGE SCALE ASCENT CONTINUE TO ACCELERATE EWD...GRADUAL INCREASE IN MUCAPE MAY OCCUR FROM W-E ACROSS REGION AND OVER ANY GIVEN LOCALE. ..EDWARDS.. 03/20/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LUB...AMA...MAF...ABQ... 31490468 33690399 34530383 34920258 34790173 34190120 32970137 31820216 31180315 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Mar 20 05:35:47 2006 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Mon, 20 Mar 2006 00:35:47 -0500 Subject: [MCD] {Spam?} SWOMCD Message-ID: <20060320053840.56A24D45E0@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 200538 SWOMCD SPC MCD 200537 TXZ000-200700- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0324 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1137 PM CST SUN MAR 19 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS W TX AND EXTREME ERN NM CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 100...98... VALID 200537Z - 200700Z SVR POTENTIAL SHOULD BE OUT OF WW 98 BY SCHEDULED 07Z EXPIRATION TIME...AND HAS EXITED NM WHERE AIR MASS HAS STABILIZED CONSIDERABLY AND SUBSTANTIAL DRYING IS UNDERWAY. CONTINUE WW 100. WRN MOST BAND OF STRONG FORCING IS EVIDENT AS OF 0530Z FROM ANDREWS COUNTY NWD TOWARD BAILEY/LAMB COUNTY LINE...CORRESPONDING TO STRONG AND SEVERE CONVECTION. WIDELY SCATTERED TSTMS ALSO ARE EVIDENT AHEAD OF THAT ACTIVITY...MOVING ENEWD 30-40 KT...INCLUDING NRN PORTIONS MAF AREA. ACTIVITY IN THIS REGION HAS PRODUCED ABUNDANT AMOUNTS OF MRGL SEVERE HAIL IN SEVERAL LOCALES. THREAT FOR HAIL WILL CONTINUE AS CONVECTION MOVES NEWD OUT OF WW 98 AND ACROSS WW 100 DURING NEXT 2-3 HOURS. AIR MASS OVER W-CENTRAL TX REMAINS QUITE STABLE WITHIN 2-3 KM AGL BASED ON MODIFIED 00Z MAF RAOB AND RUC FCST SOUNDINGS. HOWEVER ELEVATED MUCAPES 400-800 J/KG AND EFFECTIVE SHEARS OVER 60 KT WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT STORM ORGANIZATION WITH INFLOW LAYER ROOTED BETWEEN 700-850 MB. ..EDWARDS.. 03/20/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...HGX...FWD...CRP...EWX... 27939999 29549972 30119904 30229820 30959731 31259680 31139611 30479552 29879570 28769726 27829897 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Mar 20 07:24:14 2006 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Mon, 20 Mar 2006 02:24:14 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <20060320072706.217E5D45E0@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 200726 SWOMCD SPC MCD 200726 LAZ000-TXZ000-200830- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0325 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0126 AM CST MON MAR 20 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF THE MID/UPPER TX COAST INCLUDING ADJACENT COASTAL PLAINS CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 99... VALID 200726Z - 200830Z NEW WW WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED TO THE E AND NE OF WW 99...PRIMARILY FROM THE MID TX COAST REGION NEWD TO THE SABINE RIVER. 07Z SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATED A LOW DEVELOPING TO THE NW OF CRP/SW OF VCT IN THE COUNTY OF LIVE OAK. THIS LOW WAS LOCATED ALONG A SURFACE BOUNDARY WHICH EXTENDED NEWD INTO EAST CENTRAL TX. RICH MOISTURE S OF THIS BOUNDARY /SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70/ COMBINED WITH STEEP MID LAPSE RATES ARE MAINTAINING A MODERATELY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT. ALTHOUGH OBJECTIVE ANALYSES INDICATED THIS REGION IS CAPPED...LARGE SCALE ASCENT SPREADING ACROSS THIS REGION OVERNIGHT GIVEN CONTINUED HEIGHT FALLS WILL LIKELY RESULT IN SUFFICIENT DESTABILIZATION FOR SURFACE BASED ACTIVITY. 06Z RUC FORECAST SOUNDINGS CONVEY THIS SAME SCENARIO. STORMS AND NEW DEVELOPMENT ASSOCIATED WITH IMMEDIATE UPSTREAM CONVECTIVE COMPLEX WILL TRACK EWD DURING THE EARLY MORNING WITH STRENGTHENING DEEP LAYER SHEAR VALUES MAINTAINING THIS COMPLEX. ENHANCED LOW-LEVEL SHEAR IN THE VICINITY OF THE SURFACE LOW AS IT TRACKS NEWD ALONG THE SURFACE BOUNDARY AND WITH THE BOUNDARY ITSELF WILL SUPPORT A THREAT FOR TORNADOES. ..PETERS.. 03/20/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LCH...SHV...HGX...FWD...CRP...EWX... 27819729 27969827 28549901 29959863 30849812 31509677 32069376 29629372 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Mar 20 08:06:28 2006 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Mon, 20 Mar 2006 03:06:28 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <20060320080923.A2B24D4702@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 200808 SWOMCD SPC MCD 200808 TXZ000-OKZ000-200915- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0326 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0208 AM CST MON MAR 20 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...NW TX CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 100... VALID 200808Z - 200915Z SEVERE STORM THREAT WITHIN VALID PART OF WW 100 WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH. ALTHOUGH EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR VALUES REMAIN SUPPORTIVE FOR ORGANIZED STORMS...WEAKENING INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED TO LIMIT THE POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL SEVERE STORMS ACROSS NW TX. LARGE SCALE ASCENT WITHIN EXIT REGION OF 75 KT SSWLY MID LEVEL JET EXTENDING INTO SWRN OK SHOULD MAINTAIN AREA OF SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED ISOLATED STORMS ACROSS TX PANHANDLE/WRN OK NWD TOWARD SWRN KS. ..PETERS.. 03/20/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...SJT...LUB...AMA...MAF... 31670093 33460075 34760100 34749986 34199892 32039910 31549966 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Mar 20 09:34:35 2006 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Mon, 20 Mar 2006 04:34:35 -0500 Subject: [MCD] {Spam?} SWOMCD Message-ID: <20060320093726.DF22DD45E0@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 200936 SWOMCD SPC MCD 200936 LAZ000-TXZ000-201000- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0327 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0336 AM CST MON MAR 20 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...UPPER TX COAST INTO PARTS OF SERN/EAST CENTRAL TX AND SWRN LA CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 99... VALID 200936Z - 201000Z ISOLATED STRONG WIND GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE MORE INTENSE STORMS THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS FROM THE UPPER TX COASTAL REGION INTO PARTS OF SERN/EAST CENTRAL TX AND SWRN LA. ADDITIONAL WW IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR ANY RE-INTENSIFICATION. AT 0915Z...REGIONAL RADARS INDICATED THE STRONGEST STORMS EXTENDED FROM THE TX COUNTIES OF AUSTIN TO WALLER TO MADISON ALONG THE FAR ERN PART OF WW 99. LATEST MESO-ANALYSIS WOULD SUGGEST THIS ACTIVITY IS ELEVATED GIVEN ITS LOCATION TO THE WNW OF SURFACE TROUGH/OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WHICH EXTENDED FROM THE MIDDLE TX COAST NEWD TO EAST CENTRAL TX. GENERALLY WEAK SURFACE WINDS INDICATIVE OF A DECOUPLED BOUNDARY LAYER ALSO SUGGEST THE EWD MOVING CLUSTER OF STORMS SHOULD REMAIN ELEVATED. CURRENT WEAKENING TREND WITH THESE STORMS IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE...WITH A LOW PROBABILITY FOR FEW STRONG WIND GUSTS. ..PETERS.. 03/20/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LCH...SHV...HGX...FWD...EWX... 28939640 29529696 30459684 31319649 31449524 31429333 29759328 28659571 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Mar 20 10:20:10 2006 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Mon, 20 Mar 2006 05:20:10 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <20060320102302.C6E77D4702@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 201022 SWOMCD SPC MCD 201021 LAZ000-TXZ000-201045- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0328 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0421 AM CST MON MAR 20 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF SERN TX/SWRN-CENTRAL LA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 201021Z - 201045Z WW MAY BE REQUIRED FOR PARTS OF SERN TX INTO SWRN/CENTRAL LA. REGIONAL RADARS INDICATED THE STORM THAT MOVED INTO MONTGOMERY COUNTY DURING THE LAST 30-45 MINUTES HAS LOW-LEVEL ROTATION. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR THE INTERSECTION/TRIPLE POINT OF SW-NE ORIENTED SURFACE TROUGH/OUTFLOW BOUNDARY AND WARM FRONT...WHICH EXTENDED EWD FROM MONTGOMERY COUNTY INTO WEST CENTRAL/CENTRAL LA TO SERN MS. ENHANCED LOW-LEVEL SHEAR ALONG THESE BOUNDARIES WILL SUPPORT A TORNADO POTENTIAL EWD INTO LA THIS MORNING. ..PETERS.. 03/20/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...JAN...LCH...SHV...HGX... 29939578 31019542 31409520 31599380 31699263 31689188 30509193 30009357 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Mar 20 10:36:15 2006 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Mon, 20 Mar 2006 05:36:15 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <20060320103907.A5102D45E0@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 201038 SWOMCD SPC MCD 201038 NEZ000-KSZ000-COZ000-201515- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0329 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0438 AM CST MON MAR 20 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...WESTERN KS/FAR EASTERN CO AND SOUTHERN NEB CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW VALID 201038Z - 201515Z SNOW WILL STEADILY DEVELOP/INCREASE THROUGH MID MORNING ACROSS MUCH OF WESTERN KS/FAR EASTERN CO AND SOUTHERN NEB. SNOW RATES OF 1 IN/HR OR GREATER ARE LIKELY BY 15Z. AS UPPER LOW MOVES EASTWARD OUT OF NM...PRONOUNCED BLOSSOMING/ COOLING AND IMPLIED ASCENT IS EVIDENT IN WATER VAPOR/INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. A CORRESPONDING EXPANSION/INCREASE OF WSR-88D REFLECTIVITY RETURNS ACROSS MUCH OF KS/SOUTHEAST CO/SOUTHERN NEB IS ALSO NOTED EARLY THIS MORNING. WITH CYCLOGENESIS ACROSS NORTHEAST NM...UPPER JET DIVERGENCE JUXTAPOSED WITH LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE AND EASTERLY UPSLOPE WILL CONTRIBUTE TO STRONG UVVS AND INCREASING PRECIPITATION RATES THROUGH THE MORNING. 09Z RUC/00Z 4KM WRF-NMM SUGGEST POTENTIAL FOR 1 IN/HR OR GREATER SNOW RATES BY 15Z IN A SOUTHWEST-NORTHEAST CORRIDOR FROM SOUTHEAST CO/WESTERN KS INTO SOUTH CENTRAL NEB. ACROSS WESTERN KS/SOUTHEAST CO...ALTHOUGH SURFACE TEMPS ARE GENERALLY ABOVE FREEZING AS OF 10Z...ONSET OF HIGHER PRECIPITATION RATES/DYNAMIC COOLING WILL RESULT IN A QUICK ONSET OF SNOWFALL EARLY THIS MORNING AS BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES COOL TO NEAR/BELOW FREEZING. 06Z NAM/09Z RUC SOUNDINGS FURTHER IMPLY THIS IS LIKELY IN THE SHORT TERM...GENERALLY BY 12Z. ..GUYER.. 03/20/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...OAX...TOP...ICT...GID...LBF...DDC...GLD...PUB... 39300256 40430148 41179969 41389671 39619752 37989962 37220082 37090176 37080253 37700322 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Mar 20 12:34:47 2006 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Mon, 20 Mar 2006 07:34:47 -0500 Subject: [MCD] {Spam?} SWOMCD Message-ID: <20060320123738.EFFBBD4703@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 201236 SWOMCD SPC MCD 201236 LAZ000-TXZ000-201330- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0330 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0636 AM CST MON MAR 20 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...FAR SERN TX/SWRN AND CENTRAL LA CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 101... VALID 201236Z - 201330Z TORNADO THREAT REMAINS ACROSS VALID PART OF WW 101 EXTENDING FROM FAR SERN TX INTO SWRN/CENTRAL LA. 12Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED A WARM FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE UPPER TX COASTAL PLAINS /35 NW HOU/ NEWD TO 10 S POE TO 15 S HEZ...AND THEN SEWD ACROSS SERN MS TO FAR SWRN AL. MEANWHILE...OUTFLOW BOUNDARY... ASSOCIATED WITH EXTENSIVE AREA OF CONVECTION OVER NERN TX/NRN LA TO PARTS OF NRN MS...WAS PARALLEL AND JUST NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT IN SE TX/WRN LA...AND THEN EXTENDED NEWD INTO NRN MS. REGIONAL RADARS INDICATED THE STRONGEST STORM WITHIN WW 101 WAS LOCATED IN NEWTON COUNTY AT 1230Z TRACKING TOWARD THE ENE. THIS STORM HAS MAINTAINED A PERSISTENT LOW-LEVEL ROTATION FOR THE LAST 2 HOURS. CLOSE PROXIMITY OF THIS STORM TO THE WARM FRONT AND OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WOULD SUGGEST A HEIGHTENED TORNADO THREAT...GIVEN ENHANCED LOW-LEVEL SHEAR VALUES ALONG THESE BOUNDARIES. FARTHER S ALONG THE UPPER TX COAST REGION...RECENT THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT APPEARS TO BE WITHIN LOW-LEVEL WAA REGIME WITH ISOLATED HAIL BEING THE PRIMARY THREAT WITH THIS ACTIVITY. ..PETERS.. 03/20/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...JAN...LCH...SHV... 30209427 31459418 31619197 30319202 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Mar 20 18:45:12 2006 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Mon, 20 Mar 2006 13:45:12 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <20060320184807.55115D4645@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 201847 SWOMCD SPC MCD 201847 OKZ000-TXZ000-202015- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0332 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1247 PM CST MON MAR 20 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...SWRN OK / NWRN TX CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 201847Z - 202015Z TSTM DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED TO BECOME INCREASINGLY LIKELY BY MID AFTERNOON /20-21Z/ ACROSS DISCUSSION AREA. IT APPEARS THAT ISOLATED LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WITH THE MOST INTENSE STORMS. AS OF 18Z...MESOANALYSIS INDICATED PRIMARY SURFACE LOW OVER THE TX PNHDL /N OF AMA/ WITH ATTENDANT WARM FRONT EXTENDING SEWD THROUGH W-CNTRL OK INTO AND INTO FAR SWRN AR. DEEPENING BOUNDARY-LAYER MIXING HAS RESULTED IN THE EROSION OF LOW CLOUDINESS ACROSS NWRN TX INTO SWRN OK...WHICH IN TURN HAS SUPPORTED INCREASED DIABATIC HEATING AND A NWD MOVEMENT OF THIS WARM FRONT OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS. MOREOVER...THIS INSOLATION IN CONJUNCTION WITH COLD MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER LOW OVER THE TX PNHDL ARE CONTRIBUTING TO STEEPENING LAPSE RATES AND THE DEVELOPMENT OF WEAK CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY FROM SWRN OK INTO WRN TX. LATEST SHORT TERM MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT SURFACE LOW WILL DEVELOP SEWD INTO SWRN OK LATER THIS AFTERNOON...ON CYCLONIC SIDE OF 100 KT MID-LEVEL JET STREAK ROTATING NEWD INTO THE ARKLATEX. CONTINUED HEATING/DESTABILIZATION AHEAD OF THIS LOW...COUPLED WITH INCREASED LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN AN INCREASE IN CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT BY MID AFTERNOON MAINLY ALONG AND TO THE N OF THE RED RIVER. WHILE SOME BACKING OF NEAR SURFACE WINDS WILL LIKELY OCCUR AHEAD OF THIS LOW...IT APPEARS THAT THE RELATIVELY WEAK LOW-LEVEL SHEAR AND MARGINAL LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE /I.E. DEWPOINTS IN THE 40S/ WILL PRECLUDE A MORE SIGNIFICANT LOW-TOPPED SUPERCELL/TORNADO THREAT. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE STEEP LAPSE RATES...POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR ISOLATED LARGE HAIL WITH THE MOST INTENSE STORMS. ..MEAD.. 03/20/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...LUB...AMA... 34970019 35440003 35459927 35209818 34789724 34049698 33699726 33589814 33869923 34289998 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Mar 20 18:47:31 2006 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Mon, 20 Mar 2006 13:47:31 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <20060320185022.27666D4700@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 201848 SWOMCD SPC MCD 201848 MOZ000-IAZ000-KSZ000-NEZ000-SDZ000-COZ000-210015- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0333 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1248 PM CST MON MAR 20 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN CO/NEB/MUCH OF KS/WRN IA/FAR NW MO CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW VALID 201848Z - 210015Z HEAVY SNOW WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTN ACROSS A LARGE PORTION OF THE CNTRL PLAINS. HOURLY RATES OF 1 TO 2 INCHES PER HOUR WILL PERSIST...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER RATES POSSIBLE WITHIN HEAVY MESOSCALE BANDS. LATEST RADAR AND SFC OBSERVATIONS SHOW A PRONOUNCED AREA OF HEAVY SNOW ONGOING FROM THE CO FOOTHILLS TO GLD/MCK/HSI/LNK. THIS AXIS IS ASSOCIATED WITH DEFORMATION ZONE WHICH HAS SET UP ON THE NORTHWEST SIDE OF THE STORM SYSTEM. LATEST AREA PROFILER AND VAD WIND DATA OBSERVE 50-55 KT LOW LEVEL ELY FLOW ACROSS NRN KS/SRN NEB...WHICH IS CONTRIBUTING TO SIGNIFICANT UPSLOPE COMPONENT AND STRONG ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE. THE ZONE OF STRONGEST FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING IS FORECAST TO SHIFT INTO WRN KS/SERN NEB LATER THIS AFTN. CONDITIONS WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE EWD FROM THE FRONT RANGE AS UPPER LOW MOVES EAST OF THE AREA BY MID AFTN. HOWEVER TIGHT SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL RESULT IN STRONG SFC WINDS /15-25 MPH/ WHICH WILL PRODUCE CONSIDERABLE BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW IN ADDITION TO NEAR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS. WARM NOSE EVIDENT IN 12Z SOUNDINGS FROM TOPEKA AND DODGE CITY THIS MORNING WILL COMPLICATE PRECIPITATION TYPE FORECAST. AT 1830Z THE RAIN/SNOW LINE IS SOUTH OF A LINE FROM KANSAS CITY TO GREAT BEND. TEMPS ARE WELL ABOVE FREEZING IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S FROM SCNTRL KS THROUGH IA...WITH RAIN OBSERVED ACROSS CNTRL KS INTO NW MO. NAM POINT FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE MUCH COOLER THAN CURRENTLY OBSERVED...AND INDICATE SNOW ACROSS NW MO THIS AFTN. HOWEVER...RUC FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE SOMEWHAT BETTER WITH REGARD TO THE THERMAL PROFILES...AND SUGGEST MAIN PTYPE WITH BE RAIN...POSSIBLY MIXING WITH SNOW OR SLEET. ..TAYLOR.. 03/20/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...DMX...EAX...FSD...OAX...TOP...ICT...GID...LBF...DDC...GLD...PUB...BOU...CYS... 38789709 38120002 37560177 37740364 40210352 41250315 42340166 42749820 42739614 42449519 38979507  From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Mar 20 20:11:02 2006 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Mon, 20 Mar 2006 15:11:02 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <20060320201353.3D9F7D4700@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 202013 SWOMCD SPC MCD 202012 MSZ000-LAZ000-TXZ000-202145- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0334 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0212 PM CST MON MAR 20 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL AND SRN LA / CNTRL AND SRN MS CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 102... VALID 202012Z - 202145Z THROUGH 22Z...IT APPEARS THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL EXIST ACROSS SRN HALF OF WW AREA...FROM JUST NE OF LCH TO N OF PIB. AS OF 1955Z...REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY INDICATED WIDESPREAD TSTMS ORIENTED WSW TO ENE FROM SWRN LA THROUGH CNTRL MS INTO NRN AL /N OF BHM/. THE MOST INTENSE CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS WERE SHORT LINE SEGMENTS ALONG THE MS RIVER NEAR HEZ AND APPROXIMATELY 35 SW JAN. SYNTHESIS OF LATEST MESOANALYSIS WITH THIS RADAR DATA SUGGESTS THAT THESE STRONGER STORMS ARE LOCATED VERY NEAR OR JUST TO THE N OF A STATIONARY/OUTFLOW COMPOSITE BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM N OF LCH TO N OF PIB. THIS BOUNDARY HAS SHOWN VIRTUALLY NO NWD MOVEMENT OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS. IN FACT...18Z JAN SOUNDING INDICATED THAT LOW-LEVEL INVERSION MAY WELL HAVE DEEPENED OVER CNTRL MS...LARGELY DUE TO THE WIDESPREAD COLD POOL DEVELOPMENT. HOWEVER FARTHER TO THE E OVER SWRN AND W-CNTRL AL...AIR MASS IS SLOWLY MOISTENING/DESTABILIZING NWD. AIR MASS S OF THIS BOUNDARY REMAINS QUITE MOIST THIS AFTERNOON WITH MLCAPES OF AROUND 1000 J/KG /REF. 18Z LIX SOUNDING/. MOREOVER...LOCAL VADS INDICATE THAT AMBIENT ENVIRONMENT REMAINS STRONGLY SHEARED WITH 0-1 KM SRH OF 300-400 M2/S2 AND AROUND 60 KTS OF DEEP-LAYER SHEAR. THEREFORE...IT APPEARS THAT POTENTIAL FOR SUPERCELLS AND ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN QUITE HIGH FOR ANY STORMS THAT CAN BECOME ROOTED IN BOUNDARY-LAYER AND MOVE ALONG THIS BAROCLINIC ZONE. THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY DEVELOP E OF WW 102 LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO EVENING ACROSS SWRN AL AND A WW MAY BECOME NECESSARY. ..MEAD.. 03/20/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MOB...JAN...LIX...LCH...SHV... 31629357 32678876 30878876 29899361 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Mar 20 22:56:07 2006 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Mon, 20 Mar 2006 17:56:07 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <20060320225858.D0393D4249@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 202258 SWOMCD SPC MCD 202258 OKZ000-TXZ000-210030- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0335 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0458 PM CST MON MAR 20 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS NWRN/CENTRAL OK CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 202258Z - 210030Z ISOLATED SMALL SUPERCELLS MAY CONTINUE TO DEVELOP FOR ANOTHER 1-2 HOURS WITHIN NARROW CORRIDOR ALONG WARM FRONTAL ZONE...FROM OKFUSKEE/CREEK COUNTIES NWWD TOWARD AREA JUST S OF END. TSTMS MOVING THROUGH FRONTAL ZONE MAY BRIEFLY PRODUCE A TORNADO...AS WELL AS HAIL NEAR SEVERE LEVELS. WW NOT ANTICIPATED BECAUSE OF TRANSIENT/MRGL NATURE OF SEVERE THREAT. SFC MESOANALYSIS SHOWS FRONTAL ZONE FROM NEAR MCINTOSH/PITTSBURG COUNTY LINE...IN NWRN PORTION WW 104...NWWD ACROSS LOGAN COUNTY THEN WNWWD ACROSS DEWEY COUNTY. SMALL SUPERCELL OVER DEWEY COUNTY ALREADY HAS PRODUCED BRIEF TORNADO. BACKED SFC WINDS ALONG FRONT ENLARGE LOW LEVEL HODOGRAPHS IN REGIME OF STRONG AMBIENT/DEEP-LAYER SHEAR...WITH MODIFIED VWP/PROFILER WINDS YIELDING 0-1 KM SRH 100-200 J/KG. MODIFIED RUC SOUNDINGS SUGGEST MLCAPES UP TO ABOUT 500 J/KG. BUOYANCY IS SUPPORTED BY VERY STEEP LOW-MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES FROM COMBINATION OF SFC HEATING AND COLD AIR ALOFT...AND SHOULD DIMINISH WITHIN NEXT 2 HOURS. MEANWHILE...CONVECTIVE GUSTS NEAR SEVERE LEVELS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE FROM TSTMS MOVING EWD ACROSS S-CENTRAL OK INTO FAVORABLY HEATED AND WELL MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER...AMIDST STRONG MIDLEVEL FLOW. SEVERAL 50-55 KT GUSTS ALREADY HAVE BEEN RECORDED IN MESONET STATIONS AND AT SPS OBSERVING SITE AS CONVECTION PASSED OVHD. THIS ACTIVITY ALSO SHOULD WEAKEN WITH LOSS OF SFC HEATING IN INFLOW LAYER...ACROSS SERN OK. ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN ACROSS REGION WITH INCREASING CLOUD/CONVECTIVE COVERAGE...AND LOSS OF SFC HEATING BY ABOUT 00Z. ..EDWARDS.. 03/20/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...TSA...FWD...OUN... 35419766 35669828 35879874 36159894 36309795 35879666 35399599 34589616 33999684 33899751 33959789 34369772 34859771 35279773 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Mar 20 23:45:20 2006 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Mon, 20 Mar 2006 18:45:20 -0500 Subject: [MCD] {Spam?} SWOMCD Message-ID: <20060320234811.55AC9D45E0@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 202347 SWOMCD SPC MCD 202347 FLZ000-GAZ000-ALZ000-MSZ000-LAZ000-210145- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0336 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0547 PM CST MON MAR 20 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS SRN AL...SRN MS...WRN FL PANHANDLE CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 103... VALID 202347Z - 210145Z THREAT FOR DAMAGING WIND AND A FEW TORNADOES CONTINUES ACROSS REGION ALONG AND SE OF PRIMARY CONVECTIVE BAND -- MOST INTENSE PORTION OF WHICH WAS EVIDENT AT 2330Z FROM WILCOX COUNTY AL SWWD ACROSS PERRY COUNTY MS. CONTINUE WW ALONG/AHEAD OF TSTM LINE. ANOTHER WW IS NECESSARY FOR REMAINDER SRN AL SWD TO GULF COAST. EMBEDDED LEWPS...BOWS AND SUPERCELLS WILL SHIFT EWD TOWARD CORRIDOR FROM MGM-MOB OVER NEXT 1-2 HOURS...IN ENVIRONMENT OF AT LEAST MRGL BUOYANCY AND FAVORABLE SHEAR. SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS WARM FRONT FROM AMG WNWWD THROUGH AUO AREA THEN BECOMING DIFFUSE BENEATH NERN PORTION OF CONVECTIVE PLUME. 50-60 NM WIDE BAND OF RELATIVELY DRY AIR IS EVIDENT S OF THIS WARM FRONT. PARALLEL MOISTURE GRADIENT IS EVIDENT NEAR A VLD-MGM LINE...AND SHOULD SHIFT NWD DURING NEXT 1-2 HOURS TO CATCH THERMAL FRONT. AS THIS OCCURS...AIR MASS ACROSS PORTIONS S-CENTRAL/SERN AL...S OF WW...WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE WITH ACTIVITY MOVING INTO AREA FROM W. AIR MASS FROM MOISTURE GRADIENT SWD TO AL/FL PANHANDLE COAST IS CHARACTERIZED BY SFC DEW POINTS LOW-MID 60S F...SUPPORTING MLCAPES 500-800 J/KG BASED ON MODIFIED 12Z RAOBS AND RUC SOUNDINGS. MOB VWP DATA SHOWS 50-55 KT LLJ JUST 1 KM AGL...AIDING BOTH LOW LEVEL HODOGRAPHS AND STORM-RELATIVE INFLOW. ..EDWARDS.. 03/20/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...FFC...TAE...BMX...MOB...JAN...LIX... 30318908 30448985 30798996 31268880 31808784 32408682 32928629 32908588 32698538 32038493 31298471 30838463 30148514 29668529 29678535 29788542 29868540 29918540 30018553 30278602 30398657 30348707 30258774 30238824 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Mar 20 23:47:32 2006 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Mon, 20 Mar 2006 18:47:32 -0500 Subject: [MCD] {Spam?} SWOMCD Message-ID: <20060320235024.EBF0FD4249@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 202349 SWOMCD SPC MCD 202349 COR FLZ000-GAZ000-ALZ000-MSZ000-LAZ000-210145- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0336 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0549 PM CST MON MAR 20 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS SRN AL...SRN MS...WRN FL PANHANDLE...SWRN GA CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 103... VALID 202349Z - 210145Z CORRECTED FOR HEADER THREAT FOR DAMAGING WIND AND A FEW TORNADOES CONTINUES ACROSS REGION ALONG AND SE OF PRIMARY CONVECTIVE BAND -- MOST INTENSE PORTION OF WHICH WAS EVIDENT AT 2330Z FROM WILCOX COUNTY AL SWWD ACROSS PERRY COUNTY MS. CONTINUE WW ALONG/AHEAD OF TSTM LINE. ANOTHER WW IS NECESSARY FOR REMAINDER SRN AL SWD TO GULF COAST. EMBEDDED LEWPS...BOWS AND SUPERCELLS WILL SHIFT EWD TOWARD CORRIDOR FROM MGM-MOB OVER NEXT 1-2 HOURS...IN ENVIRONMENT OF AT LEAST MRGL BUOYANCY AND FAVORABLE SHEAR. SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS WARM FRONT FROM AMG WNWWD THROUGH AUO AREA THEN BECOMING DIFFUSE BENEATH NERN PORTION OF CONVECTIVE PLUME. 50-60 NM WIDE BAND OF RELATIVELY DRY AIR IS EVIDENT S OF THIS WARM FRONT. PARALLEL MOISTURE GRADIENT IS EVIDENT NEAR A VLD-MGM LINE...AND SHOULD SHIFT NWD DURING NEXT 1-2 HOURS TO CATCH THERMAL FRONT. AS THIS OCCURS...AIR MASS ACROSS PORTIONS S-CENTRAL/SERN AL...S OF WW...WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE WITH ACTIVITY MOVING INTO AREA FROM W. AIR MASS FROM MOISTURE GRADIENT SWD TO AL/FL PANHANDLE COAST IS CHARACTERIZED BY SFC DEW POINTS LOW-MID 60S F...SUPPORTING MLCAPES 500-800 J/KG BASED ON MODIFIED 12Z RAOBS AND RUC SOUNDINGS. MOB VWP DATA SHOWS 50-55 KT LLJ JUST 1 KM AGL...AIDING BOTH LOW LEVEL HODOGRAPHS AND STORM-RELATIVE INFLOW. ..EDWARDS.. 03/20/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...FFC...TAE...BMX...MOB...JAN...LIX... 30318908 30448985 30798996 31268880 31808784 32408682 32928629 32908588 32698538 32038493 31298471 30838463 30148514 29668529 29678535 29788542 29868540 29918540 30018553 30278602 30398657 30348707 30258774 30238824 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Mar 21 00:31:16 2006 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Mon, 20 Mar 2006 19:31:16 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <20060321003410.701C3D4249@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 210033 SWOMCD SPC MCD 210032 ARZ000-OKZ000-TXZ000-210200- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0337 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0632 PM CST MON MAR 20 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS SERN OK AND EXTREME W-CENTRAL/SWRN AR CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 104... VALID 210032Z - 210200Z OVERALL SEVERE POTENTIAL APPEARS TO BE DIMINISHING ACROSS WW AREA...AND THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH DUSK. INITIAL LINE OF TSTMS HAS MOVED NEWD OVER PROGRESSIVELY DEEPER STABLE LAYER NE OF WARM FRONT. SEVERE POTENTIAL SHOULD CONTINUE TO DIMINISH WITH THIS ACTIVITY AS IT MOVES ACROSS WRN AR...BUT ISOLATED STRONG GUSTS AND HAIL NEAR SEVERE LEVELS MAY OCCUR FOR ANOTHER 1-2 HOURS. MEANWHILE...HIGH-BASED BAND OF CONVECTION -- INCLUDING INTERMITTENT TSTMS -- IS MOVING EWD 40-50 KT INTO WRN PORTIONS WW. ALTHOUGH THIS ACTIVITY HAS PRODUCED SEVERE GUSTS ACROSS PORTIONS NW TX AND SWRN/S-CENTRAL OK...OVERALL WEAKENING TREND HAS BEEN NOTED. THIS MAY BE RELATED TO DIABATIC SFC COOLING...AND TO INGESTION OF MORE STABLE INFLOW AIR ORIGINATING FROM INITIAL CONVECTION OVER SERN OK. RELATIVELY DRY SUBCLOUD LAYER AND STRONG DEEP-LAYER FLOW MAY CONTRIBUTE TO A FEW ADDITIONAL GUSTS NEAR SEVERE LEVELS. ..EDWARDS.. 03/21/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LZK...SHV...TSA...FWD...OUN... 33809620 35589615 35569405 33789400 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Mar 21 01:30:32 2006 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Mon, 20 Mar 2006 20:30:32 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <20060321013325.30EA0D45E0@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 210132 SWOMCD SPC MCD 210131 ILZ000-IAZ000-MOZ000-KSZ000-NEZ000-210700- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0338 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0731 PM CST MON MAR 20 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL AND ERN NEB/IA/NRN MO/WRN IL CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW VALID 210131Z - 210700Z ...HEAVIEST SNOW RATES THIS EVENING WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH MID LEVEL DEFORMATION BAND WHICH IS EXPECTED TO EXTEND FROM ERN NEB/SRN IA INTO WRN IL LATER THIS EVENING... THE MOST INTENSE SNOW FOR THE LAST FEW HOURS HAS BEEN OCCURRING ACROSS WRN PORTIONS OF KS AND MUCH OF NEB /ROUGHLY FROM GLD TO LNK/. EXAMINATION OF 6HR-RADAR LOOPS SUGGEST THE HEAVIEST SNOW OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS WILL EXTEND FROM CNTRL NEB INTO SRN IA. CLOSED UPPER LOW NOW ACROSS WRN KS WILL MOVE EWD ACROSS KS WITH GREATEST VORTICITY ADVECTION FOCUSED ACROSS NRN MO/SRN IA INTO IL BY 06Z. UPPER FLOW IS COMPLICATED BY LEAD SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW MOVING THROUGH ERN OK. STRONG ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH MID LEVEL FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING IS FORECAST TO BE MAINLY OVER IA INTO IL OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...AND THIS SEEMS TO AGREE WITH RADAR TRENDS. 00Z SOUNDINGS FROM TOPEKA INDICATE 2-3 DEGREES OF COOLING HAS TAKEN PLACE NEAR 700 MB...BUT 00Z SOUNDING FROM SPRINGFIELD HAS A WARM INVERSION WITH +7C NEAR 850MB...SO PTYPE IS STILL PROBLEMATIC. ETA KF FORECAST SOUNDINGS FAVOR RAIN ACROSS ALL BUT FAR NRN MO...AND EVEN THOUGH THERE MAY BE A RAIN/SNOW MIX AS FAR SOUTH AS THE KC METRO...IT WOULD APPEAR THE HEAVIEST SNOW WILL REMAIN TO THE NORTH. ACROSS IA AND WRN IL...DRY AIR WILL INITIALLY LIMIT PCPN REACHING THE GROUND AS DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE 20S. BUT...INCREASING LIFT AND A DEEP SATURATED DENDRITIC LAYER SHOULD SUPPORT AN AREA OF HEAVY SNOW DEVELOPING THIS EVENING. ..TAYLOR.. 03/21/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...ILX...LSX...DVN...DMX...EAX...FSD...OAX...TOP...GID...LBF... 39849307 39679519 40139948 40929991 42289955 42229484 41879023 40119055 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Mar 21 02:11:49 2006 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Mon, 20 Mar 2006 21:11:49 -0500 Subject: [MCD] {Spam?} SWOMCD Message-ID: <20060321021440.54519D4703@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 210213 SWOMCD SPC MCD 210212 GAZ000-FLZ000-ALZ000-210415- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0339 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0812 PM CST MON MAR 20 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...SRN AL...PORTIONS FL PANHANDLE...SWRN/S-CENTRAL GA CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 103...105... VALID 210212Z - 210415Z CONTINUE WW 105 ALONG/AHEAD OF BAND OF TSTMS NOW EVIDENT FROM LGC AREA SWWD TO ABOUT 80 NM NE MOB. ANOTHER WW MAY BE REQUIRED ACROSS PORTIONS SRN GA -- E OF WW 105...NEAR AND S OF WARM FRONT. BOTH WWS MAY BE CLEARED AS SFC-BASED CONVECTION EXITS COUNTIES WITHIN...MINIMIZING POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL DAMAGING WIND OR TORNADOES. SHARPLY DEFINED SFC WARM FRONT IS ANALYZED AT 02Z FROM NEAR AYS NWWD TO ROUGHLY 25 N ABY...15 SW CSG...MEETING OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ABOUT 10 S AUO. BOWS WILL MOVE OVER WARM FRONT...THEN 20-30 NM OF SHALLOW STABLE AIR THAT MAY BE PENETRABLE BY SEVERE GUSTS...THEN PROGRESSIVELY DEEPER STABLE LAYER INTO CENTRAL GA. SEVERE POTENTIAL WILL THEREFORE DIMINISH WITH NEWD DISTANCE FROM WARM FRONT. SEVERE CONVECTIVE BAND CONTINUES TO SHIFT SLOWLY SEWD ACROSS SRN AL AND SWRN GA W OF WARM FRONT...WHILE INDIVIDUAL EMBEDDED BOW ECHOES MOVE ENE AT UP TO 50 KT. MEASURED/CONFIRMED GUSTS TO 74 KT STRUCK AUO AT 0135Z FROM BOW THAT IS CROSSING GA BORDER. ADDITIONAL SEVERE GUSTS ARE LIKELY WITH LARGER BOW AND LINE SEGMENT THAT WILL MOVE ACROSS PORTIONS BARBOUR/RUSSELL COUNTIES AL...AND PORTIONS MUSCOGEE/CHATTAHOOCHEE/STEWART/TALBOT/MARION/WEBSTER COUNTIES GA WITHIN NEXT 1-2 HOURS. ISOLATED...MRGLLY SEVERE HAIL ALSO HAS BEEN REPORTED WITH THIS ACTIVITY IN PAST 1-2 HOURS. MESOCIRCULATIONS WITHIN BOW/LEWP FEATURES WILL POSE THREAT FOR TORNADOES AS WELL. 00Z TLH RAOB AND LATEST VWP FROM SERN AL SHOW FAVORABLE SHEAR PROFILES CONTINUING...WITH 0-1 KM SRH OVER 500 J/KG AND 70-80 KT OF -6 KM SHEAR AT EOX RADAR SITE. STABLE LAYERS AROUND 700 MB -- PER TLH RAOB -- LIMIT BUOYANCY BUT CAN BE OVERCOME BY STRONG CONVECTIVE SCALE FORCING ABOVE LEADING EDGE OF EXISTING LINE SEGMENTS AND BOWS. ..EDWARDS.. 03/21/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...JAX...FFC...TAE...BMX...MOB... 31138823 31918744 32358581 32668508 32768468 32718402 32648366 32368312 31948268 31428253 30928269 30738362 30578458 30018508 29658528 29668538 29868531 30048559 30278613 30418678 30338719 30258784 30248823 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Mar 21 04:08:01 2006 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Mon, 20 Mar 2006 23:08:01 -0500 Subject: [MCD] {Spam?} SWOMCD Message-ID: <20060321041052.BD34ED45E0@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 210410 SWOMCD SPC MCD 210409 GAZ000-FLZ000-ALZ000-210615- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0340 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1009 PM CST MON MAR 20 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS CENTRAL/SRN GA...CENTRAL/SRN AL...FL PANHANDLE. CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 105... VALID 210409Z - 210615Z TORNADO POTENTIAL APPEARS TO BE DIMINISHING ATTM. FORMERLY SEVERE BOW ECHO...WHICH PRODUCED MEASURED 51 KT GUST AT LSF AT 0233Z...HAS MOVED INTO STABLE AIR ON NE SIDE OF WARM FRONT AND WEAKENED CONSIDERABLY. OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ASSOCIATED WITH ERN AL/WRN GA CONVECTION IS MOVING SEWD ABOUT 25 KT ACROSS S-CENTRAL/SWRN GA ON BOTH SIDES OF WARM FRONT. GIVEN COOLING INFLOW LAYER AND ORIENTATION OF THIS BOUNDARY WITH RESPECT TO MEAN FLOW...PRIND ADDITIONAL TSTMS FORMING ALONG BOUNDARY SHOULD MOVE OVER MORE STABLE AIR SOON THEREAFTER. CLUSTER OF TSTMS NOW OVER CENTRAL AL IS SUPPORTED BY ELEVATED WAA REGIME BEHIND INITIAL CONVECTIVE BAND...WITH MODIFIED MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOWING MUCAPES 500-1000 J/KG BASED NEAR 850 MB. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN ROOTED ABOVE SFC AS IT MOVES ENEWD TOWARD WRN/CENTRAL GA THROUGH AT LEAST 06Z...WITH BACKBUILDING PSBL TOWARD MS/AL BORDER. MOST VIGOROUS EMBEDDED CELLS MAY PRODUCE MRGLLY SVR HAIL AND STRONG GUSTS...AMIDST 50-60 KT EFFECTIVE SHEAR. ..EDWARDS.. 03/21/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...JAX...FFC...TAE...BMX...MOB... 31878828 32998810 33358543 33218444 32898397 32768356 32598334 32348325 31948298 31578282 31178291 30818372 30548411 30268461 29658528 29668538 29738552 30048559 30668617 31238671 31318711 31208747 31398779 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Mar 21 14:52:15 2006 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Tue, 21 Mar 2006 09:52:15 -0500 Subject: [MCD] {Spam?} SWOMCD Message-ID: <20060321145501.87D8ED4307@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 211454 SWOMCD SPC MCD 211453 FLZ000-GAZ000-211630- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0345 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0853 AM CST TUE MAR 21 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...NERN FL CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 211453Z - 211630Z POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS AND PERHAPS A BRIEF TORNADO WILL EXIST THROUGH 17Z OVER FAR NERN FL. GIVEN THE SMALL SPATIAL AND TEMPORAL NATURE OF THIS THREAT...A WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED. AS OF 1448Z...JAX RADAR IMAGERY SHOWED A STRONG TO POTENTIALLY SEVERE TSTM OVER COLUMBIA AND BAKER COUNTIES MOVING 260/35-40 KTS. THIS STORM HAS EXHIBITED SOME MID-LEVEL ROTATION AS IT MOVES THROUGH AN ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY MLCAPES OF 500 J/KG /PER MODIFICATION OF 12Z JAX SOUNDING/ AND RELATIVELY STRONG LOW AND DEEP-LAYER SHEAR. EXTRAPOLATION OF CURRENT MOTION WILL TAKE THIS STORM RELATIVELY CLOSE TO JAX BETWEEN 1530 AND 1600Z...PRIOR TO MOVING OFF THE COAST. GIVEN THAT CYCLOGENESIS IS IN PROGRESS OFF THE SC COAST...AND THAT LOW-LEVEL WINDS WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY VEERED WITH TIME...CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT ADDITIONAL STORMS OVER THE FL BIG BEND WILL LIKELY REMAIN BELOW SEVERE LIMITS OWING TO THE WEAKENING LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE. ..MEAD.. 03/21/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...JAX... 30318154 29978245 29928286 30508309 30798282 30868153 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat Mar 25 18:37:26 2006 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Sat, 25 Mar 2006 13:37:26 -0500 Subject: [MCD] {Spam?} SWOMCD Message-ID: <20060325183952.87405D4645@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 251839 SWOMCD SPC MCD 251839 IDZ000-NVZ000-ORZ000-252045- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0346 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1239 PM CST SAT MAR 25 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...SERN OR...SWRN ID...NRN NV CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 251839Z - 252045Z ...STRONG WINDS MAY ACCOMPANY THUNDERSTORMS ALONG ADVANCING COLD FRONT... LATEST DIAGNOSTIC DATA CONFIRMS EWD SHIFT OF FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE SIERRAS INTO SERN OR/WRN NV WITH FOCUSED PRESSURE FALLS NOW EXTENDING INTO SRN ID/NRN NV. LOWEST 3KM/BOUNDARY LAYER LAPSE RATES CONTINUE TO STEEPEN AND APPEAR MOSTLY RESPONSIBLE FOR WHAT MEAGER INSTABILITY EXISTS AHEAD OF COLD FRONT GIVEN MARGINAL MOISTURE. IT APPEARS CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THIS REGION AS VERY COLD UPPER TROUGH MOVES INLAND. FORECAST PROFILES BECOME INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE FOR DAMAGING WINDS WITH STRONGER THUNDERSTORM DOWNDRAFTS...ESPECIALLY AS LARGER SCALE SWLY FLOW DEEPENS AND INTENSIFIES IN THE WAKE OF THE WIND SHIFT. ..DARROW.. 03/25/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...BOI...LKN...REV... 42801847 43161707 43031489 41961481 41021696 40171860 41891884 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat Mar 25 23:13:59 2006 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Sat, 25 Mar 2006 18:13:59 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <20060325231626.0ECDBD49BE@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 252315 SWOMCD SPC MCD 252315 IDZ000-UTZ000-NVZ000-260045- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0347 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0515 PM CST SAT MAR 25 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...SRN ID...NRN NV...NWRN UT CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 106... VALID 252315Z - 260045Z STRONG TO SEVERE WIND GUSTS ARE STILL POSSIBLE AS BROKEN CONVECTIVE LINE MOVES INTO ERN PORTIONS OF WW 106. CONVECTIVE LINE WAS MOVING EAST AT AROUND 40KT AND WAS CURRENTLY SITUATED FROM 40 NNE BOI TO 45 ENE OWY TO EKO TO 40 NW U31. ONLY SPORADIC CG LIGHTNING ACTIVITY ALONG THE LINE WAS EVIDENCE OF VERY LIMITED INSTABILITY. NONETHELESS...FOCUSED ASCENT ALONG ADVANCING LARGER SCALE FRONTAL ZONE...AND STRONG KINEMATICS WITH NEARLY 60KT OF FLOW AT 700MB...SHOULD PARTIALLY OFFSET LIMITED INSTABILITY. AS LOW-TOPPED CONVECTION MOVES EAST ACROSS WARM/DRY BOUNDARY LAYER A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE CONVECTIVE DOWNDRAFTS REMAIN POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON. ACTIVITY WILL MOVE INTO PARTS OF NWRN UT THROUGH 01Z BUT LATEST TRENDS SUGGEST THAT ANOTHER WATCH MAY NOT BE NECESSARY. ..CARBIN.. 03/25/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...SLC...PIH...BOI...LKN...REV... 40111432 39071688 40031771 42621645 43931664 44211657 44371515 44041157 41991216 41961394 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri Mar 31 01:46:24 2006 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Thu, 30 Mar 2006 20:46:24 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 310148 SWOMCD SPC MCD 310148 ARZ000-MOZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-TXZ000-310345- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0370 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0748 PM CST THU MAR 30 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN/SRN OK...NWRN AR...NCENTRAL/NERN TX CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 112... VALID 310148Z - 310345Z SVR TSTMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS MUCH OF WW 112 THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL HRS. MAIN SVR THREATS WILL BE CONCENTRATED OVER ECENTRAL OK/NWRN AR...AND ALONG THE RED RIVER VALLEY OF SRN OK/NRN TX. MAIN SVR THREAT SHOULD BE LARGE HAIL...WITH ISOLATED TORNADOES POSSIBLE. PERSISTENT SUPERCELL TSTM OVER HASKELL COUNTY WILL MOVE EWD AROUND 30 KTS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF WW 112 /NWRN AR/ THROUGH 04Z. STG LOW LEVEL SHEAR WILL AID IN THE POTENTIAL FOR AN ISOLATED TORNADO OR TWO. RECENT OBS OVER WRN/CENTRAL AR INDICATE MUCH LESS INSTABILITY. GIVEN CURRENT STORM/CLUSTER MOTION...THIS CONVECTIVE CLUSTER MAY OUTRUN MAIN INSTABILITY AXIS AND BEGIN TO WEAKEN AFTER 04Z. CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED AND AREAS EAST OF WW 112 IN WRN/CENTRAL AR MAY NEED AN ADDITIONAL WW BEFORE 06Z. FURTHER SOUTH...CONVECTIVE CLUSTER OVER THE RED RIVER VALLEY WILL CONTINUE TO MAINTAIN A SVR HAIL/WIND THREAT AS STRONG LOW LEVEL JET SUPPORT STG INFLOW. AGAIN STG LOW LEVEL SHEAR MAY SUPPORT AN ISOLATED TORNADO WITH THIS ACTIVITY OVER THE NEXT FEW HRS. FINALLY...THE CONVECTIVE LINE ORIENTED ALONG THE COLD FRONT OVER SERN KS/NERN OK WILL POSE A THREAT FOR ISOLATED LARGE HAIL/DMGG WINDS. UNIDIRECTIONAL SHEAR PROFILES AND LINEAR NATURE SUGGEST A LIMITED TORNADO THREAT AHEAD OF THIS ACTIVITY. ..CROSBIE.. 03/31/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LZK...SGF...SHV...TSA...ICT...FWD...OUN... 37519551 36839639 35729646 34899643 34349693 33869776 33329817 32939709 32989537 33729522 34789453 35759363 36489350 36499454 37009480 37219496 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri Mar 31 01:55:01 2006 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Thu, 30 Mar 2006 20:55:01 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 310157 SWOMCD SPC MCD 310157 ILZ000-MOZ000-IAZ000-310300- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0371 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0757 PM CST THU MAR 30 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN MO/WRN IL* CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 310157Z - 310300Z SEVERE THREAT WILL SPREAD EWD WITH TIME INTO NERN AND E CENTRAL MO/W CENTRAL IL. NEW WW WILL BE ISSUED SHORTLY. UPPER LOW CONTINUES MOVING ENEWD ACROSS THE MID MO VALLEY ATTM...ACCOMPANIED BY 90 KT MID-LEVEL JET STREAK. BOUNDARY LAYER AIRMASS APPEARS TO BE SUFFICIENTLY MOIST/UNSTABLE TO SUPPORT AN EWD CONTINUATION OF ONGOING CONVECTION. WITH INSTABILITY LIKELY SUFFICIENT FOR -- AND SHEAR QUITE FAVORABLE FOR -- DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL...NEW WW WILL BE ISSUED ACROSS PARTS OF ERN MO INTO W CENTRAL IL. ..GOSS.. 03/31/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...PAH...ILX...LSX...DVN...SGF...EAX... 40619027 39718956 37848979 37339191 38109205 40479312 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri Mar 31 02:27:26 2006 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Thu, 30 Mar 2006 21:27:26 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 310230 SWOMCD SPC MCD 310229 MOZ000-ARZ000-IAZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-310400- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0372 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0829 PM CST THU MAR 30 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...WRN MO CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 111... VALID 310229Z - 310400Z THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER CONTINUES ACROSS VALID PORTIONS OF WW. LATEST RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDING FROM N CENTRAL MO SWWD INTO SERN KS AHEAD OF FRONT...WITH ADDITIONAL/MORE SCATTERED STORMS E OF THIS LINE OVER ERN MO. ISOLATED STORMS ALSO CONTINUE ACROSS PARTS OF NWRN MO AND INTO SRN IA JUST AHEAD OF MAIN UPPER CIRCULATION. THOUGH INSTABILITY REMAINS MARGINAL ACROSS MUCH OF MO /MEAN-LAYER CAPE AROUND 500 J/KG/...DEEP-LAYER WIND FIELD REMAINS QUITE STRONG AS 80 KT MID-LEVEL JET STREAK CONTINUES SHIFTING ACROSS MO SE OF MAIN UPPER CIRCULATION. THERFORE...EXPECT THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS TO CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. WITH WW SCHEDULED TO EXPIRE AT 31/04Z...A NEW WW MAY BE REQUIRED ACROSS PORTIONS OF SRN MO. ..GOSS.. 03/31/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LSX...LZK...SGF...DMX...EAX...TSA... 39269404 40499436 41009382 40729343 36539163 36439460 37889492 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri Mar 31 05:06:15 2006 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Fri, 31 Mar 2006 00:06:15 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 310508 SWOMCD SPC MCD 310508 ILZ000-IAZ000-310615- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0373 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1108 PM CST THU MAR 30 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN IA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 113... VALID 310508Z - 310615Z SEVERE THREAT CONTINUES TO DIMINISH/SHIFT E OF WW. WATCH WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AS SCHEDULED AT 31/06Z. CONVECTION CONTINUES TO MOVE E OF THE MS RIVER/OUT OF WW 113. WITH CENTER OF UPPER CIRCULATION NOW MOVING NEWD ACROSS WRN IA...STRONGER CONVECTION SHOULD CONTINUE SHIFTING INTO NWRN IL. THEREFORE...WW WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT THE TOP OF THE HOUR. ..GOSS.. 03/31/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...ILX...DVN... 40679121 41989131 42018999 40689047 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri Mar 31 05:32:09 2006 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Fri, 31 Mar 2006 00:32:09 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 310534 SWOMCD SPC MCD 310534 ARZ000-OKZ000-TXZ000-310600- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0374 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1134 PM CST THU MAR 30 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN OK/NWRN AR/NERN TX CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 112... VALID 310534Z - 310600Z SEVERE THREAT CONTINUES TO DIMINISH ACROSS MOST OF WW AREA...THOUGH PERSISTENT CONVECTION ALONG THE RED RIVER OVER SERN OK/NERN TX MAY LINGER BEYOND 31/06Z. TWO CLUSTERS OF STRONG/SEVERE STORMS REMAIN ACROSS WW ATTM -- 0NE ACROSS NWRN AR AND THE OTHER OVER SERN OK/NERN TX. STORMS OVER NWRN AR CONTINUE MOVING EWD...AND SHOULD MOVE OUT OF WW 112 INTO WW 115 BY 31/06Z. MEANWHILE...CLUSTER OF STORMS ALONG THE RED RIVER HAS PERSISTED FOR SEVERAL HOURS -- APPARENTLY WITHIN AREA OF WARM ADVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH LOW-LEVEL JET. THOUGH LONG TERM TREND WITH RESPECT TO CONVECTIVE INTENSITY SHOULD BE DOWNWARD AS LOW-LEVEL JET VEERS/MOVES EWD AHEAD OF PROGRESSING UPPER SYSTEM...SEVERE THREAT MAY LINGER OVER A SMALL AREA FOR A COUPLE MORE HOURS. WW MAY BE EXTENDED LOCALLY FOR A COUPLE OF HOURS ACROSS THIS AREA...BUT OTHERWISE WW WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AS SCHEDULED AT 31/06Z. ..GOSS.. 03/31/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LZK...SHV...TSA...FWD...OUN... 36329314 34859412 33399551 33519702 34249643 34859497 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri Mar 31 06:55:41 2006 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Fri, 31 Mar 2006 01:55:41 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 310658 SWOMCD SPC MCD 310658 INZ000-ILZ000-MOZ000-310830- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0375 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1258 AM CST FRI MAR 31 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...ECNTRL MO...CNTRL/SRN/ERN IL AND WRN IND CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 310658Z - 310830Z NARROW STRONG TSTM LINE SEGMENTS CONTINUE TO TRANSLATE ENEWD AT AROUND 40 KTS FROM THE KSTL AREA NEWD INTO CNTRL IL...ALONG THE NOSE OF 80+ KT H5 SPEED MAX. TSTMS SHOULD BE MAINTAINED EWD INTO PORTIONS OF IND THROUGH THE MORNING AS STRONG UVV TRANSLATES EWD. THOUGH THE INSTABILITY GRADIENT LIES ALONG/W OF THE MS RVR...STRONG SWLY H85 WINDS SEEM TO BE ADVECTING LOW-LEVEL MSTR NWD AHEAD OF THE STORMS...RESULTING IN MARGINAL DESTABILIZATION. EVENTUALLY...TSTMS SHOULD OUT PACE THIS DESTABILIZATION PROCESS AND RESULT IN WEAKENING STORMS. MOREOVER...TSTMS SHOULD CONTINUE TO BECOME ROOTED JUST ABOVE THE BOUNDARY LAYER...LESSENING THE RISK OF DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. SO...DESPITE THE VERY IMPRESSIVE KINEMATICS IN PLACE...THE SEVERE THREAT SHOULD DIMINISH AS THE STORMS MOVE INTO ERN IL AND WRN IND THE NEXT FEW HOURS. ..RACY.. 03/31/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...IWX...IND...PAH...LOT...ILX...LSX...DVN... 38709072 39758984 41048939 41398880 41498742 40918635 39748612 38788676 38168767 37618951 37779101 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri Mar 31 07:11:04 2006 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Fri, 31 Mar 2006 02:11:04 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 310713 SWOMCD SPC MCD 310713 MOZ000-ARZ000-310815- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0376 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0113 AM CST FRI MAR 31 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...SRN MO...NRN AR CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 310713Z - 310815Z STRONG H5 JET OF 80+ KTS CONTINUES TO TRANSLATE NEWD INTO THE MIDWEST WITH ATTENDANT LLJ SHIFTING NEWD WITH TIME. AS SUCH...TSTMS ACROSS SRN MO AND NRN AR HAVE CONTINUED TO WEAKEN...WITH THE TORNADO THREAT DIMINISHING. STRONGEST INSTABILITY REMAINS WELL UPSTREAM ACROSS SERN OK AND NRN TX WHERE ONGOING TSTM CLUSTER MAY PERCOLATE MOST OF THE MORNING. FARTHER N...HOWEVER...THERE DOES NOT SEEM MUCH SUPPORT THE REDEVELOPMENT OF DEEP MOIST CONVECTION. AS A RESULT...CURRENT TORNADO WATCH COULD BE CANCELLED EARLY. ..RACY.. 03/31/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...PAH...MEG...LSX...LZK...SGF...TSA... 36449376 37349231 37519079 37068967 35899046 35149238 35259424 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri Mar 31 18:54:46 2006 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Fri, 31 Mar 2006 13:54:46 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 311857 SWOMCD SPC MCD 311857 MIZ000-OHZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-312100- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0377 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1257 PM CST FRI MAR 31 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF SRN MI...MUCH OF IND...INTO E CNTRL/SRN IL CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 311857Z - 312100Z AREA IS BEING MONITORED FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF A WW. DRY SLOT WRAPPING INTO CYCLONE OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY IS ALLOWING FOR AXIS OF STRONG SURFACE HEATING...EAST OF THE OZARK PLATEAU INTO PARTS OF THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION. MORE SPECIFICALLY...THERMAL RIDGE AXIS CURRENTLY EXTENDS ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL ILLINOIS INTO NORTH INDIANA...WITH MOISTURE RETURN OCCURRING TO THE EAST...ON SOUTHERLY FLOW OUT OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. NARROW TONGUE OF LOWER 60S DEW POINTS HAS RECENTLY SURGED THROUGH SOUTHERN ILLINOIS AND LIKELY WILL CONTINUE NORTHWARD THROUGH WESTERN INTO NORTHERN INDIANA BY LATE AFTERNOON. DRY LINE STRUCTURE IS EXPECTED TO SET UP BY AROUND 21Z...PROVIDING A FOCUS FOR VIGOROUS CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT...BEFORE UPSTREAM COLD FRONT ADVANCES INTO REGION LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AS INCREASING COOL/CYCLONIC MID-LEVEL FLOW ALSO CONTRIBUTES TO WEAKENING INHIBITION...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INITIATE LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THIS SEEMS MOST LIKELY NORTH OF TERRA HAUTE INTO THE FORT WAYNE AREA...POSSIBLE AS EARLY AS 21Z...BEFORE ACTIVITY EVENTUALLY DEVELOPS SOUTHWARD TOWARD AREAS OF SOUTHERN ILLINOIS AROUND MT.VERNON. GIVEN FAVORABLE CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY ...AND MIXED LAYER CAPE UP TO 1000 J/KG...SHEAR BENEATH 50 TO 70 KT CYCLONIC MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELLS. DESPITE NEAR UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW...LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPHS WILL BE LARGE BENEATH 50 TO 60 KT 850 JET...AND ISOLATED TORNADOES APPEAR POSSIBLE IN ADDITION TO RISK FOR LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS. ..KERR.. 03/31/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...ILN...DTX...LMK...IWX...GRR...IND...PAH...ILX... 41498596 42588468 42398381 40638481 39428601 38668647 38058728 37838847 37998905 38598856 39828763 40198722 40918656 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri Mar 31 19:56:01 2006 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Fri, 31 Mar 2006 14:56:01 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 311958 SWOMCD SPC MCD 311958 ALZ000-TNZ000-KYZ000-MSZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-LAZ000-312130- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0378 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0158 PM CST FRI MAR 31 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...MUCH OF THE LOWER MS VALLEY REGION CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 311958Z - 312130Z STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE OVER A BROAD ZONE FROM AR AND LA EWD INTO MS/AL/TN/KY. A FEW SEVERE STORMS ARE LIKELY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NRN MS/AL AND WRN TN. THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE MARGINALLY SVR HAIL AND PERHAPS AN ISOLATED/BRIEF TORNADO. A WW IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. INSTABILITY IS SLOWLY INCREASING AS MID 60S DEWPOINTS ADVECT NEWD OUT OF ERN TX/LA...WITHIN DEEP TROPOSPHERIC WARM ADVECTION REGIME IN WAKE OF STRONG TROUGH TO THE NORTH. MID TO UPPER LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE MODEST AT BEST AT 6.0-6.5 C/KM DUE TO WARMING ALOFT...THUS HAIL PROBABILITIES WILL BE LOWERED IN 20Z OUTLOOK. HOWEVER...WIND SHEAR PROFILES REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR ORGANIZED STORMS WITH EFFECTIVE DEEP LAYER SHEAR VECTORS OVER 50 KT. THEREFORE MARGINALLY SVR HAIL OR WIND MAY OCCUR. A BRIEF/ISOLATED TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT ESPECIALLY OVER NERN MS/NWRN AL AND SWRN MIDDLE TN WHERE MODERATE LOW LEVEL SHEAR REMAINS. ..JEWELL.. 03/31/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...OHX...BMX...HUN...MOB...PAH...MEG...JAN...LZK...SHV... 32839214 34229245 36139292 36439067 37078845 37028810 36378719 34218672 32018859 31758909 31719055 32019189 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri Mar 31 22:00:53 2006 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Fri, 31 Mar 2006 17:00:53 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 312203 SWOMCD SPC MCD 312203 MIZ000-OHZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-312300- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0380 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0403 PM CST FRI MAR 31 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...SE LWR MI CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 117...118... VALID 312203Z - 312300Z CONTINUE WW. CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IS ONGOING ACROSS PARTS OF LOWER MICHIGAN... SUPPORTED BY STRONGER FORCING DOWNSTREAM OF CLOSED LOW WHICH IS SHIFTING SLOWLY EASTWARD INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION. LEADING EDGE OF STRONGER MID-LEVEL COOLING/LIFT TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THIS FEATURE IS NOW BEGINNING TO OVERSPREAD PRE-FRONTAL THERMAL RIDGE AXIS ACROSS SOUTHERN/EASTERN ILLINOIS THROUGH NORTHERN INDIANA. INHIBITION IS WEAKENING ACROSS THIS REGION...AND SCATTERED VIGOROUS CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO. MIXED LAYER CAPE APPROACHING 1000 J/KG WILL SUPPORT ISOLATED SUPERCELLS IN FAVORABLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT... PARTICULARLY NEAR THE TERRE HAUTE AREA BY 00Z. ..KERR.. 03/31/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...ILN...DTX...IWX...GRR...IND...PAH...ILX... 38788800 39558770 40168728 40568665 40948629 41558566 42268484 42698465 42908435 42638363 41838387 41088422 40348516 39348657 38738701 38518775 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Mar 7 16:49:37 2006 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Tue, 07 Mar 2006 11:49:37 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <20060307165217.9A635D42E0@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 071624 SWOMCD SPC MCD 071623 MOZ000-IAZ000-MNZ000-KSZ000-NEZ000-SDZ000-071830- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0181 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1023 AM CST TUE MAR 07 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS W-CENTRAL/NWRN MO...WRN IA...EXTREME NERN KS...SERN SD...SWRN MN CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 071623Z - 071830Z TSTMS SHOULD INCREASE IN COVERAGE THROUGH ABOUT 18Z IN NNW-SSE ORIENTED BAND FROM SERN SD AND SWRN MN SEWD TO W-CENTRAL MO...MOVING NEWD 30-40 KT ACROSS MUCH OF WRN IA...NWRN-W-CENTRAL MO AND SWRN MN. ISOLATED HAIL NEAR SEVERE LIMITS IS POSSIBLE...HOWEVER NEITHER ORGANIZED SEVERE EVENT NOR WW ARE ANTICIPATED WITH THIS ACTIVITY. CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED PARALLEL AND VERY CLOSE TO WARM FRONTAL ZONE NEAR 700 MB. ACTIVITY APPEARS TO BE ROOTED AROUND 700 MB BASED ON EFFECTIVE INFLOW LAYERS IN MODIFIED RAOBS AND RUC FCST SOUNDINGS. PARCELS ISENTROPICALLY RAISED LIFTED TO LFC AND SATURATION...BENEATH 7.5 DEG C/KM MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES...SUPPORT ELEVATED MUCAPES 500-800 J/KG. EFFECTIVE SHEARS 30-40 KT ARE EVIDENT WHEN USING ELEVATED LIFTED PARCELS CORRESPONDING TO LAYERS THAT INCLUDE 700 MB LEVEL. ALTHOUGH VERY LARGE/DAMAGING HAIL IS NOT LIKELY GIVEN LIMITED BUOYANCY AND MRGL EFFECTIVE SHEAR...RELATIVELY DRY SUBCONVECTIVE LAYER ATOP COOL/STABLE SFC AIR MASS MAY INHIBIT SUBCLOUD MELTING AND THUS AID HAIL SURVIVAL TO SFC. ..EDWARDS.. 03/07/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MPX...SGF...DMX...EAX...FSD...OAX...TOP... 37879455 38569477 39999542 42209633 43659719 44029719 44399686 44429623 44379573 44199525 43669464 43139399 41989358 40529309 39129307 38279330 37959423  From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Mar 7 23:17:10 2006 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Tue, 07 Mar 2006 18:17:10 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <20060307231947.EC8C6D45E5@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 072317 SWOMCD SPC MCD 072316 ILZ000-MOZ000-IAZ000-KSZ000-080115- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0182 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0516 PM CST TUE MAR 07 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...NRN THRU W CNTRL MO/NE KS CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 072316Z - 080115Z NEW CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP/INCREASE EARLY THIS EVENING. TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED FOR BROADER SCALE SEVERE POTENTIAL...AND POSSIBILITY OF A WW. MOST VIGOROUS CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT REMAINS FOCUSED IN ZONE OF STRONGER MID-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION NOW SPREADING ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHEAST IOWA/NORTHEAST MISSOURI TOWARD WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS. THIS IS OCCURRING AHEAD OF MID-LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH...WHICH WILL CONTINUE EASTWARD INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THIS EVENING. WITHIN NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS...PRIMARY NEW CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT SEEMS LIKELY TO DEVELOP IN BASE OF UPPER TROUGH...TO THE WEST SOUTHWEST OF ONGOING ACTIVITY...ACROSS AREA NEAR/SOUTH THROUGH SOUTHWEST OF KIRKSVILLE. BASE OF ACTIVITY MAY LOWER CLOSER TO 850 MB THAN 700 MB...BUT SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE SHARP FRONTAL INVERSION. HOWEVER...SLIGHTLY GREATER MOST UNSTABLE CAPE...ON THE ORDER OF 1000 J/KG...WILL SUPPORT INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL. MID-LEVEL COOLING IN WAKE OF UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY IMPULSE...AND ONSET OF INCREASING LOWER MID/TROPOSPHERIC IN CREST OF SHORT WAVE RIDGING BUILDING THROUGH THE SOUTH CENTRAL PLAINS... ARE EVENTUALLY EXPECTED TO SUPPORT INCREASING THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY BACK TOWARD THE KANSAS CITY MO/TOPEKA KS AREA. THIS APPEARS POSSIBLE AS EARLY AS 03Z...MORE LIKELY THEREAFTER. ..KERR.. 03/07/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...ILX...LSX...DVN...DMX...EAX...TOP... 40679336 41109198 40799072 39509062 38929096 38809276 38569432 38629550 38969562 39409570 39699482 40219432  From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Mar 7 23:50:16 2006 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Tue, 07 Mar 2006 18:50:16 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <20060307235248.48CB8D4565@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 072349 SWOMCD SPC MCD 072349 OKZ000-KSZ000-080115- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0183 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0549 PM CST TUE MAR 07 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...N CNTRL OK INTO PARTS OF S CNTRL/SE KS CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 072349Z - 080115Z TRENDS CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED FOR POSSIBILITY OF INCREASING SEVERE THREAT AND POTENTIAL FOR A WW. SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS ALREADY LIFTING AWAY FROM THE SOUTH CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...WITH BROAD MID/UPPER SHORT WAVE RIDGE BUILDING THROUGH THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS. THUS...CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY EXISTS CONCERNING CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL ALONG/AHEAD OF DRY LINE IN WARM SECTOR ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA/SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. HOWEVER...NARROW AXIS OF MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER CAPE ON THE ORDER OF 1000 TO 1500 J/KG EXISTS...AND WEAK LOWER/MID TROPOSPHERIC COOLING IS ONGOING IN WAKE OF UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY SHORT WAVE TROUGH. THIS COULD WEAKEN INHIBITION SUFFICIENTLY FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT BY 02-03Z. HIGHEST PROBABILITY OF OCCURRENCE SEEMS TO BE NEAR OR TO THE SOUTH/EAST OF WICHITA...WHERE DEEP LAYER SHEAR PROFILES BENEATH MODERATELY STRONG WESTERLY MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR ISOLATED SUPERCELLS. A TORNADO IS POSSIBLE...BUT PRIMARY RISK SEEMS TO BE LARGE HAIL. ..KERR.. 03/07/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...TSA...TOP...ICT...OUN... 37559754 38339677 38749598 38289507 37029522 36489562 36369665 36579757  From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Mar 8 00:12:10 2006 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Tue, 07 Mar 2006 19:12:10 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <20060308001440.D75CBD45E5@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 080010 SWOMCD SPC MCD 080010 TXZ000-080115- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0184 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0610 PM CST TUE MAR 07 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF SW TX CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 080010Z - 080115Z TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED...BUT NEED FOR A WW DOES NOT APPEAR LIKELY AT THE PRESENT TIME. ISOLATED SEVERE STORM HAS RECENTLY DEVELOPED ALONG DRY LINE NEAR THE FORT STOCKTON AREA. LARGE-SCALE FORCING APPEARS GENERALLY WEAK... BUT FAVORABLE OROGRAPHY AND WEAKENED INHIBITION IN PEAK HEATING HAVE APPARENTLY BEEN ENOUGH TO SUPPORT ACTIVITY. WITHIN NEXT HOUR OR SO...INHIBITION SHOULD BEGIN TO INCREASE WITH ONSET OF SURFACE COOLING. DIFLUENT UPPER FLOW REGIME AND STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL JET COULD OFFSET THIS MITIGATING FACTOR...MAINTAINING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT INTO THE 02-03Z TIME FRAME. HOWEVER...THIS ACTIVITY SEEMS LIKELY TO REMAIN RATHER ISOLATED. ..KERR.. 03/08/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...EWX...SJT...MAF... 31140263 31490195 30820130 30350158 30140205 30100251  From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Mar 8 03:23:04 2006 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Tue, 07 Mar 2006 22:23:04 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <20060308032533.078C3D4968@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 080323 SWOMCD SPC MCD 080323 MOZ000-KSZ000-080530- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0185 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0923 PM CST TUE MAR 07 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...NE KS INTO NRN MO CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 38... VALID 080323Z - 080530Z CONTINUE WW 38. TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED FOR POSSIBILITY OF ADDITIONAL WW TO THE EAST OF THE KANSAS CITY METRO AREA. INCREASE IN CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IS NOW ONGOING NEAR THE TOPEKA/ ST. JOSEPH/KANSAS CITY AREAS...WHERE LOWER/MID TROPOSPHERIC WARM ADVECTION APPEARS TO BE MAXIMIZED ON NORTHEAST PERIPHERY OF UPPER RIDGE...IN WAKE OF UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY SHORT WAVE TROUGH. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE/INTENSITY NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...AIDED BY MOIST INFLOW ASSOCIATED WITH STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL JET. SHEAR PROFILES ARE SUFFICIENT FOR UPDRAFT ROTATION ...WHICH WILL ENHANCE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL IN STRONGER CELLS WHICH WILL BE BASED ABOVE NEAR SURFACE FRONTAL INVERSION ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS WILL EVENTUALLY DEVELOP THROUGH 06Z AND BEYOND...IN LOW-LEVEL CONFLUENT REGIME DOWNSTREAM...BECOMING QUASI STATIONARY NEAR THE INTERSTATE 70 CORRIDOR ACROSS MISSOURI. DESTABILIZATION COULD BECOME SUFFICIENT FOR MARGINAL SEVERE HAIL THREAT. OTHERWISE...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IN TRAINING CONVECTION COULD EVENTUALLY BECOME A PROBLEM. ..KERR.. 03/08/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LSX...SGF...EAX...TOP...ICT... 38979661 39479597 39779480 40039302 39839170 39219103 38829105 38599157 38469321 38019530 38259647  From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Mar 8 03:49:49 2006 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Tue, 07 Mar 2006 22:49:49 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <20060308035220.2176ED4A80@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 080349 SWOMCD SPC MCD 080348 MOZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-080515- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0186 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0948 PM CST TUE MAR 07 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...NRN OK/SRN KS/SW MO CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 38... VALID 080348Z - 080515Z SUPPRESSION OF CONVECTIVE INHIBITION...ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK MID-LEVEL COOLING IN WAKE OF UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY SHORT WAVE TROUGH...HAS BEEN SUFFICIENT FOR VIGOROUS CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT PAST FEW HOURS ACROSS NORTHWEST/NORTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA. INFLUENCE OF UPPER JET STREAK TOPPING CREST OF SHORT WAVE RIDGE IS UNCERTAIN...BUT STRONGER FORCING APPEARS LIKELY TO CONTINUE SHIFTING EAST NORTHEASTWARD ALONG SOUTHERN FRINGE OF WW 38...EAST OF THE PONCA CITY AREA BY 06Z...AND EAST OF BARTLESVILLE INTO THE JOPLIN AREA BY 09Z. VEERING SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL JET WILL MAINTAIN INFLOW OF MOIST...POTENTIALLY UNSTABLE AIR...IN ENVIRONMENT WITH SHEAR SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS. ONGOING ACTIVITY MAY BE BASED NEAR THE SURFACE...BUT SHOULD BECOME MORE ELEVATED WITH LARGE HAIL PRIMARY THREAT NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. ..KERR.. 03/08/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...SGF...TSA...ICT...OUN... 36579813 37179745 37559636 37799510 37249452 36769483 36549553 36229616 36079699 36069808  From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Mar 8 15:33:47 2006 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Wed, 08 Mar 2006 10:33:47 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <20060308153615.D07C3D4565@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 081532 SWOMCD SPC MCD 081532 ARZ000-LAZ000-TXZ000-OKZ000-081630- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0187 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0932 AM CST WED MAR 08 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS SERN OK...N-CENTRAL/NERN TX...W-CENTRAL/SWRN AR...EXTREME NWRN LA CONCERNING...OUTLOOK UPGRADE VALID 081532Z - 081630Z 1630Z DAY-1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK WILL BE UPGRADED TO CATEGORICAL MDT RISK FOR SVR TSTMS LATE TONIGHT ACROSS ARKLATEX REGION -- MAINLY AFTER 09/06Z. POTENTIAL IS INCREASING FOR DAMAGING WIND AND SIGNIFICANT TORNADOES DURING OVERNIGHT HOURS ALONG/AHEAD OF SFC FRONT ACROSS OUTLINED REGION. THIS WILL CARRY OVER AND EXPAND GEOGRAPHICALLY INTO 1730Z DAY-2 OUTLOOK...WHICH ALSO WILL BE UPGRADED TO MDT RISK FROM THIS AREA NEWD THRU SEWD ACROSS LOWER MS VALLEY REGION. MORE DETAILS ARE FORTHCOMING IN SPC DAY-1 AND DAY-2 OUTLOOK PRODUCTS. ..EDWARDS.. 03/08/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LZK...SHV...TSA...FWD...OUN... 33259346 32839373 32279436 31889515 31869564 32039613 32329652 32649659 33269652 34509582 35349479 35459397 35259340 34889316 34299309  From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Mar 8 17:42:13 2006 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Wed, 08 Mar 2006 12:42:13 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <20060308174440.9ACEBD46C1@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 081741 SWOMCD SPC MCD 081741 MOZ000-IAZ000-KSZ000-NEZ000-082015- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0188 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1141 AM CST WED MAR 08 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS NERN KS...NWRN MO CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 081741Z - 082015Z POTENTIAL FOR SFC-BASED SVR TSTM DEVELOPMENT WILL INCREASE DURING NEXT 2-3 HOURS ACROSS NERN KS/NWRN MO. AREA IS BEING MONITORED FOR POSSIBLE WW. SFC MESOANALYSES OVER PAST FEW HOURS SHOW WARM FRONT LIFTING NEWD ACROSS ERN KS AND WRN MO...E THRU ESE SFC LOW. AT 17Z...SHARPLY DEFINED WARM FRONT WAS ANALYZED FROM SFC LOW NEAR MHK...ESEWD ACROSS WRN/SRN PORTIONS KC METRO AREA...THEN CURVING SWD OVER WRN OZARKS REGION. EXPECT SFC CYCLONE TO DEEPEN SOMEWHAT MORE AND MOVE NEWD TOWARD STJ REGION THROUGH MID-LATE AFTERNOON...WHILE WARM FRONT LIFTS NWD OVER MO VALLEY BETWEEN FNB-MCI. DRYLINE -- ANALYZED AT 17Z FROM POTTAWATOMIE COUNTY KS SWWD TO BETWEEN END-PNC -- SHOULD MOVE EWD IN STEP WITH OR JUST AHEAD OF SFC LOW...AND WILL FORM WRN BOUND FOR SEVERE THREAT. AIR MASS ALONG AND S OF WARM FRONT...AND E OF DRYLINE...IS BECOMING FAVORABLY UNSTABLE...WITH VIS IMAGERY AND OBS SHOWING CLEARING S OF WARM FRONT. CINH WEAKENS RAPIDLY AS SFC TEMPS HEAT INTO MID 70S WITH 55-60 DEG F DEW POINTS...PER MODIFIED RAOBS AND RUC/ETA SOUNDINGS. THIS MAY FOSTER DEVELOPMENT WITHIN NEXT 2-3 HOURS...ESPECIALLY CONSIDERING ENHANCEMENT OF CONVERGENCE ALONG DRYLINE/WARM FRONT NEAR DEEPENING LOW. VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES WILL REMAIN MAXIMIZED INVOF THIS FRONT AS WELL...PER LATEST VWP/PROFILER TRENDS. ALONG WARM FRONT AND E OF SFC LOW...MLCAPES 1000-1500 J/KG ARE POSSIBLE WITH 0-1 KM SRH 200-300 J/KG AND EFFECTIVE BULK SHEARS NEAR 60 KT...SUPPORTING SUPERCELL POTENTIAL IN ANY TSTMS THAT DEVELOP. ..EDWARDS.. 03/08/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...DMX...EAX...OAX...TOP... 38499508 38539633 39749563 40329507 40609452 40229339 39439280 38769303  From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Mar 8 18:25:38 2006 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Wed, 08 Mar 2006 13:25:38 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <20060308182823.3B76AD46C1@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 081825 SWOMCD SPC MCD 081825 KYZ000-MOZ000-TNZ000-ARZ000-OKZ000-082030- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0189 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1225 PM CST WED MAR 08 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS SERN OK...WRN/NRN AR...EXTREME SERN MO CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 081825Z - 082030Z TSTM COVERAGE/INTENSITY MAY INCREASE THROUGH MID-AFTERNOON ACROSS PORTIONS NRN/WRN AR...WITH ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT MOVING NEWD FROM SERN OK. MAIN THREAT THROUGH 21Z SHOULD BE HAIL. EXISTING ACTIVITY OVER NERN AR SHOULD MOVE ACROSS PORTIONS SERN MO AND MAY PRODUCE HAIL NEAR SEVERE LEVELS BEFORE WEAKENING. MODIFIED RAOBS AND RUC SOUNDINGS INDICATE ELEVATED MUCAPES 1000-1500 J/KG ACROSS THIS REGION...SUPPORTED BY STRONG WAA IN 800-850 MB LAYER WHERE ACTIVITY IS ROOTED ATTM. 50-70 KT MIDLEVEL WINDS WILL ENHANCE SHEAR THROUGH CAPE BEARING LAYER...SUPPORTING POTENTIAL FOR FURTHER ORGANIZATION AND HAIL PRODUCTION. ALTHOUGH SFC HEATING WILL BE SLOW OVER THIS REGION BECAUSE OF THICK CLOUD COVER...COMBINATION OF GRADUAL DIABATIC WARMING AND SFC WAA MAY RESULT IN EFFECTIVE LIFTED LAYER EXTENDING DOWN TO SFC ONCE TEMPS REACH MID 70S F...MOST PROBABLE FROM ABOUT 21Z ONWARD. WEAK BAROCLINIC BOUNDARY MAY DEVELOP FROM SERN OK ENEWD ACROSS CENTRAL AR IN RESPONSE TO DIFFERENTIAL HEATING S OF MAIN PRECIP AREA. ALTHOUGH MODELS INDICATE CAPPING WILL BE MAINTAINED FOR SFC PARCELS...SUCH HEATING AND POTENTIAL LIFT COULD INTRODUCE SOME SFC-BASED SUPERCELL POTENTIAL BY MID-LATE AFTERNOON...A SITUATION THAT WILL WARRANT ADDITIONAL MONITORING. ..EDWARDS.. 03/08/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...PAH...MEG...LZK...SGF...SHV...TSA... 34859238 34209526 35909425 36449144 37308958 36428952 35299081 34999182  From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Mar 8 18:33:50 2006 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Wed, 08 Mar 2006 13:33:50 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <20060308183624.6CEC8D46B5@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 081835 SWOMCD SPC MCD 081834 COZ000-WYZ000-082230- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0190 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1234 PM CST WED MAR 08 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...NERN CO CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW VALID 081834Z - 082230Z SNOW RATES ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE BY 21Z WITH UP TO 2 IN/HR RATES IN UPSLOPE AREAS ALONG FRONT RANGE. WEAK SURFACE COLD ADVECTION WILL INTENSIFY OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS AS WINDS BACK AND INCREASE TO AROUND 20 KT IN RESPONSE TO DEEPENING PRESSURES TO THE SOUTH. JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE...WARM ADVECTION WILL BE MAINTAINED WHICH WILL KEEP PROFILES SATURATED WITH MOISTURE ADVECTION FROM THE EAST. TEMPERATURE PROFILES WILL MANAGE TO COOL DESPITE THIS WEAK WARM ADVECTION AS UPPER SYSTEM DEEPENS. GIVEN SEVERAL HOURS OF SATURATED AND COOLING PROFILES ALONG WITH UPSLOPE FLOW...2-4 HOURS OF HEAVY SNOW ARE LIKELY. ..JEWELL.. 03/08/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...PUB...BOU...CYS... 40940582 41130561 41080521 41020490 40880473 40660466 40500468 40150465 39920456 39680446 39480436 38880481 38820507 38970537 39860584 40530583  From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Mar 8 19:53:58 2006 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Wed, 08 Mar 2006 14:53:58 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <20060308195631.8DD09D46C1@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 081954 SWOMCD SPC MCD 081953 OKZ000-TXZ000-082200- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0191 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0153 PM CST WED MAR 08 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...W CENTRAL TX INTO SWRN OK CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 081953Z - 082200Z WE ARE MONITORING THE DRYLINE FOR POSSIBLE CONVECTIVE INITIATION THIS AFTERNOON. A WW COULD BE REQUIRED. SURFACE DEWPOINTS HAVE MIXED OUT MAINLY INTO THE UPPER 50S E OF THE DRYLINE. 18Z FWD SOUNDING SHOWS A RELATIVELY DEEP AND MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER WITH MEAN MIXING RATIOS NEAR 10.5 G/KG AND 850 DEWPOINT OF 11.9 C...HOWEVER CAPPED. WARMER TEMPERATURES EXIST FARTHER WEST WITH LITTLE SURFACE BASED AND MIXED LAYER CIN REMAINING. AN EXPANSIVE CIRRUS SHIELD HAS FORMED IN ADVANCE OF UPPER TROUGH...WHICH WILL LIMIT HEATING FOR THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...TEMPERATURES ALOFT CONTINUE TO COOL WITH A STRONG TEMPERATURE GRADIENT FROM THE MCD AREA NWWD. IN ADDITION...AREA WIND PROFILERS INDICATE LOW LEVEL WINDS / 850 MB / BEGINNING TO BACK WHICH WILL HELP TRANSPORT RICHER MOISTURE NWWD BENEATH INCREASINGLY STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. LATEST 18Z NAM AS WELL AS 18Z RUC MODELS BOTH PRODUCE PRECIPITATION OVER SWRN OK INTO NWRN TX BETWEEN 21-00Z. GIVEN STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR VECTORS AS WELL AS INCREASING HELICITY LATE...SUPERCELLS WILL BE LIKELY WITH VERY LARGE HAIL. TORNADO THREAT WOULD INCREASE LATER IN THE EVENING WITH INCREASING LOW LEVEL JET AND CONTINUED STEEPENING OF LAPSE RATES ALOFT WITH ENHANCED LOW LEVEL BUOYANCY/ACCELERATION. ..JEWELL.. 03/08/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...SJT... 35109698 34489721 32209849 31839903 31229984 31100023 31630057 32619999 33629904 34759841 35039824 35519749  From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Mar 8 21:12:29 2006 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Wed, 08 Mar 2006 16:12:29 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <20060308211457.BEBF5D45A2@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 082111 SWOMCD SPC MCD 082111 MOZ000-KSZ000-OKZ000-082245- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0192 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0311 PM CST WED MAR 08 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS ERN KS...W-CENTRAL/NWRN MO CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 39... VALID 082111Z - 082245Z SEVERAL DEEP CONVECTIVE TOWERS ARE EVIDENT IN VIS IMAGERY ALONG AND JUST N OF SFC WARM FRONT AS IT LIFTS SLOWLY NWD ACROSS STJ AREA...AND ADJACENT PORTIONS EXTREME NERN KS AND NWRN MO. FOR GREATEST TORNADO POTENTIAL...ACTIVITY MUST REMAIN IN WARM FRONTAL ZONE LONG ENOUGH TO MATURE WITH SFC-BASED INFLOW...WITHOUT MOVING TOO FAR OVER PROGRESSIVELY COOLER/MORE STABLE AIRMASS NEAR IA/MO LINE. SFC MESOANALYSIS SHOWS LOW CONTINUING TO DEEPEN AS IT MOVES NEWD ACROSS AREA BETWEEN MHK-TOP-FNB. DRYLINE INTERSECTS WARM FRONT JUST E OF SFC LOW BETWEEN TOP-STJ AS OF 21Z...AND MAY MOVE EWD AS FAR AS MO RIVER IN NEXT 1- 2HOURS. MODIFIED FCST SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SHOW WEAK CINH -- 25 J/KG OR LESS -- FOR 100 MB DEEP MEAN-MIXED LAYER ASCENT...MAINLY NEAR AND N OF I-70. DEEP-LAYER SHEAR PROFILES ARE FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS ON BOTH SIDES OF WARM FRONT...BUT WITH MORE STRONGLY CURVED HODOGRAPHS NEAR AND JUST N OF FRONT WHERE FLOW IS BACKED AT SFC. SVR TSTM DEVELOPMENT REMAINS POSSIBLE ALONG DRYLINE OVER WRN PORTION OF WW...HOWEVER PROBABILITIES MAY BE DIMINISHING WITH COVERAGE OF DEVELOPMENT LIMITED S OF WARM FRONT. STRONGEST PRESSURE FALLS IN THIS REGION SHOULD REMAIN ALONG AND N OF SFC WARM FRONT HELPING TO MAINTAIN BACKED FLOW AND FAVORABLE SHEAR THERE BUT KEEPING FLOW SOMEWHAT VEERED AND REDUCING DRYLINE CONVERGENCE FARTHER S. IN ADDITION...THICKENING AND INCREASE IN COVERAGE OF HIGH CLOUDS FROM SW IS SLOWING DIABATIC HEATING AND MAY ALSO BE RESTRICTING SOLENOIDAL ASCENT INVOF DRYLINE. W EDGE OF HIGH CLOUD DECK SHOULD NOT MOVE E OF WW UNTIL AFTER DARK...THEREFORE SFC TEMPS IN MOIST SECTOR MAY BE PEAKING. ..EDWARDS.. 03/08/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...SGF...EAX...TSA...TOP...ICT... 36999433 36979628 38109559 39189509 39669524 40029525 40189417 40099301 39299318  From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Mar 8 22:11:40 2006 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Wed, 08 Mar 2006 17:11:40 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <20060308221422.1CC03D45A2@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 082211 SWOMCD SPC MCD 082210 ARZ000-MOZ000-OKZ000-082245- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0193 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0410 PM CST WED MAR 08 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF CENTRAL INTO NE OK CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 082210Z - 082245Z WW WILL BE ISSUED SOON FOR PARTS OF CENTRAL INTO NE OK. THUNDERSTORMS ARE DEVELOPING RAPIDLY ACROSS CENTRAL OK FROM OKLAHOMA COUNTY TO PAYNE COUNTY. THESE STORMS ARE DEVELOPING ALONG A DRY LINE THAT HAS BEEN RETREATING TOWARD THE NNW AS LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE RETURNS ACROSS OK...WITH MUCAPE RANGING FROM 1000-2000 J/KG. DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS MORE THAN SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS. ..PETERS.. 03/08/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...SGF...TSA...OUN... 35249750 35999719 36929657 36959453 35319479 35029647  From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Mar 8 23:20:33 2006 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Wed, 08 Mar 2006 18:20:33 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <20060308232302.60327D46C1@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 082320 SWOMCD SPC MCD 082320 OKZ000-TXZ000-082345- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0194 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0520 PM CST WED MAR 08 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF SW THROUGH NORTH CENTRAL TX TO SRN OK CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 082320Z - 082345Z WW WILL BE ISSUED SOON FOR SRN OK INTO PARTS OF NORTH CENTRAL TX. ANOTHER WW MAY BE REQUIRED FARTHER TO THE SW OVER PARTS OF CENTRAL INTO SW TX THIS EVENING. DESPITE EXPANSIVE SHIELD OF HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS STREAMING NEWD ACROSS MUCH OF SW/WRN TX TO OK AND ERN KS...LOW-LEVEL WINDS BACKING WITH THE APPROACH OF THE UPSTREAM TROUGH HAS RESULTED IN DRY LINE RETREATING TO THE NW THIS AFTERNOON. SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE MID-UPPER 70S COMBINED WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60 HAS RESULTED IN MUCAPE 1500-2500 J/KG. THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP SLOWLY ALONG THE DRY LINE...WITH GREATER TSTM COVERAGE EXPECTED AFTER 00-03Z AS STRONGER ASCENT WITH THE UPSTREAM TROUGH SPREADS EWD ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS THIS EVENING. ..PETERS.. 03/08/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...SJT... 31370093 32300005 32919962 34049896 35129824 35089619 34029625 32079786 30969904 30409996 30380056 30920119  From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu Mar 9 01:03:50 2006 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Wed, 08 Mar 2006 20:03:50 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <20060309010625.AC233D45A2@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 090104 SWOMCD SPC MCD 090104 MOZ000-KSZ000-OKZ000-090200- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0195 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0704 PM CST WED MAR 08 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...SERN KS / PARTS OF WRN INTO NRN MO CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 39... VALID 090104Z - 090200Z TORNADO WATCH 39 WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AS SCHEDULED AT 09/02Z. 00Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED A SURFACE LOW OVER NWRN MO TO THE ENE OF STJ. A DRY LINE EXTENDED SSWWD INTO SERN KS TO CENTRAL OK...WHILE A COLD FRONT TRAILED SWWD TO THE WEST OF THE DRY LINE INTO SOUTH CENTRAL KS TO THE OK PANHANDLE. REGIONAL RADARS INDICATED STORMS OVER NERN PART OF WW 39 /NORTH CENTRAL MO/ WEAKENING...WHILE THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOPED ALONG DRY LINE OVER SERN KS SINCE 23Z HAVE NOT BECOME SIGNIFICANTLY INTENSE... WITH ONLY PEA SIZE HAIL REPORTED THUS FAR. PRIND SUGGEST ERN KS/MO MAY BE LOCATED BENEATH WEAK SHORT WAVE RIDGING BETWEEN SHORT WAVE TROUGH LIFTING NEWD ACROSS MID MO VALLEY AND UPSTREAM TROUGH APPROACHING SRN PLAINS. IN ADDITION TO MID LEVEL RIDGING... OBJECTIVE ANALYSES INDICATED BOUNDARY LAYER ACROSS SERN KS AND MO BEGINNING TO STABILIZE WITH A WEAK CAP EVIDENT ON 00Z SOUNDING AT SGF. ALTHOUGH DEEP LAYER SHEAR REMAINS STRONG FOR ORGANIZED STORMS...STRONGEST...THOUGH ISOLATED...ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN FOCUSED ALONG THE DRY LINE AND/OR APPROACHING COLD FRONT AS THE SURFACE LOW TRACKS NEWD TOWARD SERN IA. ..PETERS.. 03/09/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LSX...SGF...EAX...TSA...TOP...ICT... 37019667 38769453 40119403 40029186 36869323  From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu Mar 9 01:47:15 2006 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Wed, 08 Mar 2006 20:47:15 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <20060309014940.22438D4565@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 090147 SWOMCD SPC MCD 090146 ILZ000-WIZ000-IAZ000-090315- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0196 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0746 PM CST WED MAR 08 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...SERN IA...NRN IL AND FAR SERN WI. CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 41... VALID 090146Z - 090315Z STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS ARE ANTICIPATED TO CONTINUE IN THE NERN PORTION OF WW 41 AND TO THE E. AN ADDITIONAL WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED DOWNSTREAM AT THIS TIME. SEVERAL ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE ALONG THE I-80 CORRIDOR IN CNTRL/ERN IA INTO FAR NW IL. THE STORMS HAVE FORMED ALONG AN AXIS OF MAXIMUM 850 MB WARM THETA-E ADVECTION. RUC AND 18Z NAM WRF GUIDANCE INDICATE THIS AXIS WILL MOVE NWD INTO SRN WI/LK MI THIS EVENING AS A LOW-LEVEL DRY PUNCH MOVES NEWD FROM NW MO AS EVIDENCED BY 00Z TOP SOUNDING. ALTHOUGH DEEP LAYER SPEED SHEAR IS QUITE SUPPORTIVE OF ELEVATED SUPERCELLS...MUCAPES ARE LOW FROM AROUND 250-500 J/KG ACROSS NWRN IL FROM 00Z DVN SOUNDING. THIS SHOULD SUPPORT A THREAT FOR STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL. ..GRAMS.. 03/09/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LOT...ILX...MKX...DVN...DMX... 41659366 42089238 42429052 42888782 41538824 41019012 40619232  From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu Mar 9 02:22:10 2006 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Wed, 08 Mar 2006 21:22:10 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <20060309022439.4AE40D4A94@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 090222 SWOMCD SPC MCD 090222 ARZ000-MOZ000-OKZ000-TXZ000-090315- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0197 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0822 PM CST WED MAR 08 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...OK/NRN TX CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 40...42... VALID 090222Z - 090315Z WW 40 WILL BE REPLACED WITH A NEW WATCH EXTENDING WWD TO INCLUDE MORE OF NORTH CENTRAL OK. WW 42 REMAINS VALID THROUGH 06Z. ONGOING THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS ERN/SERN OK INTO NORTH CENTRAL TX SHOULD POSE A LIMITED SEVERE THREAT DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN PRIMARILY ELEVATED. 02Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED THE COLD FRONT EXTENDED FROM SERN KS SWWD INTO NWRN OK...WHILE THE DRY LINE EXTENDED SWD ACROSS CENTRAL OK INTO PARTS OF NWRN-WEST CENTRAL TX. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED AN AREA OF LARGE SCALE ASCENT /MID LEVEL CLOUDS/ SPREADING EWD ACROSS WRN TX INTO WRN OK SUGGESTING NEW THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOP BETWEEN 03-06Z ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL OK INTO PARTS OF NRN TX. ..PETERS.. 03/09/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...SGF...TSA...FWD...OUN...SJT... 32179964 35409897 36989864 36929432 35289527 32949689 31959816  From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu Mar 9 03:57:13 2006 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Wed, 08 Mar 2006 22:57:13 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <20060309040004.91926D46C1@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 090356 SWOMCD SPC MCD 090356 MOZ000-KSZ000-OKZ000-090500- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0198 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0956 PM CST WED MAR 08 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...SERN KS/SWRN MO CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 090356Z - 090500Z HAIL THREAT EXPECTED TO INCREASE...BUT SHOULD REMAIN PRIMARILY ISOLATED THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS /UNTIL 06-07Z/. GREATEST THREAT AREA SHOULD BE ACROSS SERN KS AND POTENTIALLY DEVELOPING INTO SWRN MO. REGIONAL RADARS SHOWED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED SINCE 0245Z OVER SERN KS FROM COWLEY TO ALLEN COUNTIES. THIS ACTIVITY IS LOCATED NORTH OF THE COLD FRONT...AND THUS IS MOST LIKELY ROOTED ABOVE THE SURFACE. AIR MASS S AND E OF THE FRONT HAS REMAINED MARGINALLY UNSTABLE WITH MLCAPE VALUES UP TO 1000 J/KG. 50 KT SSWLY LLJ EXTENDING INTO SERN KS IS PROVIDING MOIST/UNSTABLE INFLOW INTO THIS ELEVATED ACTIVITY...WITH ADDITIONAL ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES SEWD INTO THE INSTABILITY AXIS. ..PETERS.. 03/09/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...SGF...EAX...TSA...TOP...ICT...OUN... 38099598 38749410 38549348 37199367 36959473 36959677 37109749 37699720  From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu Mar 9 05:01:20 2006 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Thu, 09 Mar 2006 00:01:20 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <20060309050355.ADCAAD45A2@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 090503 SWOMCD SPC MCD 090502 TXZ000-090630- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0200 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1102 PM CST WED MAR 08 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...TX HILL COUNTRY/SCNTRL TX CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 090502Z - 090630Z ...A WATCH WILL BE ISSUED SHORTLY FOR THE TX HILL COUNTRY/SCNTRL TX... STRONG/SVR TSTMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF 80-90 KT JET MAX WHICH IS APPROACHING FROM THE BIG BEND. VIGOROUS LARGE SCALE ASCENT WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. STORMS APPEAR TO BE FORMING ON A CONFLUENCE AXIS...POSSIBLY NEAR 700MB JUDGING FROM VWP/SATELLITE DATA. DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BE WELL OVER 50 KT...AND AIRMASS IS MODERATELY UNSTABLE. WHILE THE SEVERE THREAT WILL TEND TO BE MORE FROM LARGE HAIL/STRONG WINDS...THERE IS A SMALL POTENTIAL FOR TORNADOES...GIVEN SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW/MID 60S AND THE VERY STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR. ..TAYLOR.. 03/09/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...HGX...FWD...CRP...EWX...SJT... 28629738 28179909 29109998 31339850 31599708 31129625 30299628 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu Mar 9 05:01:20 2006 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Thu, 09 Mar 2006 00:01:20 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <20060309050510.8492DD42E0@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 090503 SWOMCD SPC MCD 090502 TXZ000-090630- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0200 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1102 PM CST WED MAR 08 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...TX HILL COUNTRY/SCNTRL TX CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 090502Z - 090630Z ...A WATCH WILL BE ISSUED SHORTLY FOR THE TX HILL COUNTRY/SCNTRL TX... STRONG/SVR TSTMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF 80-90 KT JET MAX WHICH IS APPROACHING FROM THE BIG BEND. VIGOROUS LARGE SCALE ASCENT WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. STORMS APPEAR TO BE FORMING ON A CONFLUENCE AXIS...POSSIBLY NEAR 700MB JUDGING FROM VWP/SATELLITE DATA. DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BE WELL OVER 50 KT...AND AIRMASS IS MODERATELY UNSTABLE. WHILE THE SEVERE THREAT WILL TEND TO BE MORE FROM LARGE HAIL/STRONG WINDS...THERE IS A SMALL POTENTIAL FOR TORNADOES...GIVEN SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW/MID 60S AND THE VERY STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR. ..TAYLOR.. 03/09/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...HGX...FWD...CRP...EWX...SJT... 28629738 28179909 29109998 31339850 31599708 31129625 30299628 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu Mar 9 07:56:15 2006 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Thu, 09 Mar 2006 02:56:15 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <20060309075846.2CDB5D4565@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 090758 SWOMCD SPC MCD 090757 ARZ000-TXZ000-OKZ000-090900- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0202 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0157 AM CST THU MAR 09 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...SRN OK AND NRN TX CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 45...46...47... VALID 090757Z - 090900Z ...FAST-MOVING SQUALL LINES WILL GENERATE WIND DAMAGE... TWO WELL DEVELOPED...AND INCREASINGLY MATURE...SQUALL LINES HAVE EVOLVED ACROSS OK INTO THE RED RIVER REGION OF NORTH TX. LEAD SQUALL LINE IS EXITING NERN MOST QUADRANT OF WW45...MOVING INTO WW46-47...WHILE UPSTREAM SQUALL LINE IS GRADUALLY DEVELOPING INTO NCNTRL TX ALONG THE RED RIVER REGION. BOTH OF THESE ORGANIZING COMPLEXES ARE RACING ENEWD IN EXCESS OF 50 KT AND SHOULD EASILY GENERATE DAMAGING WINDS...AS HAVE BEEN OBSERVED ON SEVERAL MESONET LOCATIONS. OF PARTICULAR INTEREST IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SWD DEVELOPMENT ALONG ADVANCING WIND SHIFT INTO THE METROPLEX AS STRONG FORCING OVERSPREADS WARM SECTOR. ALTHOUGH ISOLATED TORNADOES REMAIN POSSIBLE...STRONG WINDS APPEAR TO BE THE GREATEST SEVERE THREATS WITH THESE SQUALL LINES. ..DARROW.. 03/09/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LZK...SHV...TSA...FWD...OUN... 34759713 35819560 35469372 33439448 33179677 33279829 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu Mar 9 11:13:10 2006 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Thu, 09 Mar 2006 06:13:10 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <20060309111536.49B29D42E0@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 091114 SWOMCD SPC MCD 091114 LAZ000-MSZ000-TXZ000-091245- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0203 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0514 AM CST THU MAR 09 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN TX AND LA CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 44... VALID 091114Z - 091245Z ...TORNADO WATCH WILL BE ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF EAST TX AND MUCH OF LA... VERY STRONG MID LEVEL SPEED MAX...90-100 KT...IS NOW APPROACHING CNTRL TX WHERE SHARPENING COLD FRONT AND INCREASING SHOWERS/TSTMS ARE OBSERVED. MOISTURE HAS GRADUALLY INCREASED ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR...ESPECIALLY OVER SERN TX TO NEAR THE SABINE RIVER. IN ADDITION...STRONG PRESSURE FALLS ARE NOTED ACROSS THIS REGION SUPPORTING THE STRENGTH OF THE UPPER TROUGH WHICH WILL EJECT ACROSS EAST TX LATER THIS MORNING. VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN CREATING HIGH END HODOGRAPHS STRONGLY SUPPORTIVE OF TORNADIC STORMS AND DAMAGING BOW ECHOES. AS THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT RESPONDS TO THIS TROUGH...SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD EMERGE THIS MORNING AND RACE NEWD TOWARD THE MS RIVER. BROAD TORNADO WATCH WILL BE ISSUED TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS FAST MOVING SYSTEM. ..DARROW.. 03/09/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...JAN...LIX...LCH...SHV...HGX...FWD... 30779575 32719461 32869151 30709123 29759211 29859517 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu Mar 9 12:09:37 2006 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Thu, 09 Mar 2006 07:09:37 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <20060309121211.CCAFED46A3@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 091211 SWOMCD SPC MCD 091210 TNZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-OKZ000-091345- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0204 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0610 AM CST THU MAR 09 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...NERN OK...NRN AR CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 46... VALID 091210Z - 091345Z ...ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN POSSIBLE...MAINLY ACROSS NRN AR... WIDESPREAD CONVECTION DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS HAS STABILIZED MUCH OF THE TORNADO WATCH REGION. OLD OUTFLOW BOUNDARY REMAINS SOMEWHAT IDENTIFIABLE IN AN E-W ORIENTATION ROUGHLY ALONG SRN PORTIONS OF THE WATCH FROM NERN AR TO NEAR FSM. HOWEVER...IT APPEARS MUCH OF THE STRONGER THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY FROM THIS POINT FORWARD WILL BE SOUTH OF THIS REGION WHERE AIRMASS IS MORE BUOYANT AHEAD OF APPROACHING SQUALL LINE. SERN MOST COUNTIES MAY NEED TO BE CONSIDERED FOR A REPLACEMENT WATCH BY 14Z. ..DARROW.. 03/09/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...PAH...MEG...LSX...LZK...SGF...TSA... 36139528 37119347 37169029 35638956 34789338 34869538 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu Mar 9 16:33:11 2006 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Thu, 09 Mar 2006 11:33:11 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <20060309163557.13F41D46B5@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 091634 SWOMCD SPC MCD 091634 MOZ000-ARZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-091830- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0206 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1034 AM CST THU MAR 09 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...FAR ERN OK/WRN AR AND SWRN MO CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 091634Z - 091830Z SCT THUNDERSTORMS ARE ANTICIPATED TO DEVELOP BEGINNING BY 18Z OVER PORTIONS OF FAR ERN OK...WRN AR AND SWRN MO. ISOLATED SVR HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS THIS AFTERNOON. AREA WILL CONTINUED TO BE MONITORED FOR A SVR WW. LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS CLEARING CONTINUES TO DEVELOP IN THE WAKE OF CONVECTIVE LINE LOCATED OVER CENTRAL/ERN AR AND SERN MO...AND AHEAD OF UPPER LOW/COLD FRONT LOCATED OVER CENTRAL OK. A NARROW AXIS OF INSTABILITY HAS THUS DEVELOPED WITHIN THIS CLEARING. THIS INSTABILITY WILL INCREASE AND THE AXIS IS EXPECTED SLOWLY EXPAND IN AREAL COVERAGE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. WITH PRESENCE OF STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND COLD MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES /-20 TO -25 DEG C AT 500 MB/ FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE UP TO 1000 J/KG OF MUCAPE BY EARLY AFTERNOON. SURFACE BASED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN TO FORM ON EITHER THE SLOWLY MOVING COLD FRONT OVER FAR NERN OK/SWRN MO...OR ONE OR MORE SURFACE TROUGHS OVER FAR ERN OK/WRN AR BY 18Z AS FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES IN THE 63-65 DEG F RANGE. GIVEN SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY...COLD LOW-MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES AND MODEST SHEAR...AT LEAST MARGINALLY SVR HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS. ..CROSBIE.. 03/09/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LZK...SGF...SHV...TSA... 33889432 35979315 37149277 37589414 36649501 35739505 34079521 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu Mar 9 19:53:42 2006 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Thu, 09 Mar 2006 14:53:42 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <20060309195622.A5835D45A2@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 091955 SWOMCD SPC MCD 091955 ARZ000-MOZ000-092200- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0209 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0155 PM CST THU MAR 09 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL AR AND SCENTRAL/SERN MO CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 091955Z - 092200Z ISOLATED SVR STORMS WITH LARGE HAIL ARE POSSIBLE EAST OF WW 51...CENTRAL AR AND SCENTRAL/SERN MO...IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. LATEST VISIBLE SAT DATA SHOWS CLEARING TREND WAS PROGRESSING INTO CENTRAL AR BEHIND SQUALL LINE OVER THE MS VALLEY. AS A RESULT THE AIRMASS WAS DESTABILIZING AS /LIT WAS 70/62 AT 19Z/. GIVEN SATELLITE TRENDS...THIS DESTABILIZATION SHOULD CONTINUE AND DEVELOP NWD INTO SCENTRAL AND EVENTUALLY SERN MO OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT LITTLE CINH REMAINS AND THUNDERSTORM INITIATION IS POSSIBLE ALONG DRYLINE ACROSS CENTRAL MO BY 20Z. GIVEN UP TO 1000 J/KG OF MUCAPE AND MODERATE SHEAR/COLD MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES ISOLATED LARGE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE. ..CROSBIE.. 03/09/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...PAH...MEG...LSX...LZK...SGF... 35199113 36669049 37339042 37329156 36699186 35609234 35009277 34059319 33979207 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu Mar 9 21:04:55 2006 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Thu, 09 Mar 2006 16:04:55 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <20060309210725.2938CD42E0@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 092106 SWOMCD SPC MCD 092106 MOZ000-ARZ000-092230- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0210 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0306 PM CST THU MAR 09 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...NRN/CENTRAL AR AND SWRN MO CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 51... VALID 092106Z - 092230Z THREAT FOR SVR WILL LIKELY BE HIGHEST ACROSS NCENTRAL AR IN THE NEXT 2 HOURS AHEAD OF CONVECTIVE CLUSTER. A NEW WW MAY BE NEEDED BY 22Z FOR THE AREA DOWNSTREAM OF THIS CLUSTER /NERN AR/ AND OUTSIDE OF WW 51. LATEST RAD/SAT IMAGERY SHOWS A CONVECTIVE CLUSTER OVER NWRN AR. SVR WINDS AND MARGINALLY SVR HAIL HAS BEEN REPORTED WITH STORMS IN THE CLUSTER OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS. WV IMAGERY CONFIRMS THIS ACTIVITY WAS ORGANIZED JUST AHEAD OF A PRONOUNCED VORT MAX. GIVEN THE MODEST INSTABILITY /MUCAPES AROUND 1000 J/KG PER MODEL SOUNDING DATA/ SOMEWHAT WEAKER DEEP LAYER SHEAR IN PROXIMITY TO THE HE VORT MAX HAS AIDED IN THE ORGANIZATION OF THIS CLUSTER. FURTHER SOUTH...CONVECTION CONTINUES DEVELOP OVER THE SERN PORTION OF WW 51 INTO CENTRAL AR...BUT STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR /70-90 KTS/ WILL TEND TO LIMIT UPDRAFT INTENSITY GIVEN ONLY MODEST INSTABILITY. FURTHER NORTH IN SCENTRAL/CENTRAL MO WEAKER INSTABILITY /MUCAPES FROM 500-750 J/KG/ SHOULD CONTINUE TO LIMIT SVR THREAT. GIVEN OVERALL LINEAR MODE OF CONVECTION AHEAD OF VORT MAX INTO NCENTRAL AR...DAMAGING WINDS WILL REMAIN THE PRIMARY SVR THREAT. HOWEVER STEEP LAPSE RATES WILL STILL SUPPORT THREAT FOR MARGINALLY SVR HAIL WITH ANY ISOLATED SUPERCELLS. ..CROSBIE.. 03/09/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LSX...LZK...SGF...TSA... 38369084 38439256 37359304 35579341 35149317 34729293 35279257 36819172 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu Mar 9 21:30:37 2006 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Thu, 09 Mar 2006 16:30:37 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <20060309213259.87BB9D42E0@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 092132 SWOMCD SPC MCD 092132 OHZ000-KYZ000-INZ000-TNZ000-092300- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0211 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0332 PM CST THU MAR 09 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS SRN INDIANA...W-CENTRAL THROUGH N-CENTRAL KY...WRN/MID TN...SWRN OH. CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 52... VALID 092132Z - 092300Z LINE OF STRONG-SEVERE TSTMS WITH EMBEDDED LEWP/BOW PATTERNS WILL CONTINUE MOVING NEWD ACROSS WW AREA...AND THEN UP OH VALLEY TOWARD REMAINDER SERN INDIANA...N-CENTRAL KY AND SWRN OH. LINE HAS PRODUCED DAMAGING GUSTS AND FUNNEL CLOUD REPORTS IN PAST 2-3 HOURS. WW MAY BE CLEARED BEHIND THIS CONVECTION. TN PORTION OF LINE WILL MOVE INTO NRN SECTION OF SVR WW 53 BEFORE WW 52 EXPIRES. MODIFIED RUC SOUNDINGS INDICATE BASE OF EFFECTIVE LIFTED LAYER WILL REMAIN ON OR BARELY ABOVE SFC FOR ANOTHER FEW HOURS...MAINTAINING AT LEAST MRGL TORNADO RISK GIVEN PRESENCE OF VERY STRONG DEEP-LAYER SHEAR AND ENLARGED LOW LEVEL HODOGRAPHS. NEUTRAL TO WEAKLY UNSTABLE MEAN LAPSE RATES WILL MITIGATE BUOYANCY...KEEPING MUCAPES BELOW 500 J/KG IN MOST AREAS. ONCE ACTIVITY MOVES E AND NE OF WW AREA...OVERALL TORNADO POTENTIAL IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH IN CONJUNCTION WITH WEAKENING THETAE IN NEAR-SFC LAYER...AS ACTIVITY MOVES INTO PROGRESSIVELY WEAKER INSTABILITY. HOWEVER...OCNL WIND DAMAGE MAY PERSIST WITH THIS ACTIVITY AS FAR NE AS SWRN OH. ..EDWARDS.. 03/09/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...JKL...ILN...LMK...OHX...IND...PAH...MEG... 40078583 38848661 37998705 36628836 36068848 35618848 35218818 35228770 35888711 36688657 36678509 39088414 39978480 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu Mar 9 21:50:04 2006 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Thu, 09 Mar 2006 16:50:04 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <20060309215226.1D5B2D45A2@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 092151 SWOMCD SPC MCD 092151 ALZ000-MSZ000-LAZ000-092245- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0212 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0351 PM CST THU MAR 09 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS ERN/SRN MS...SERN LA. CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 50... VALID 092151Z - 092245Z WW MAY BE CLEARED BEHIND PRIMARY BAND OF SEVERE TSTMS. ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO POSE THREAT OF DAMAGING WIND...AS IT MOVES NEWD ACROSS ERN/SRN MS AND PORTIONS SERN LA. TORNADO THREAT STILL REMAINS BUT IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH WITH TIME OVER NRN PORTION OF LINE AS ACTIVITY MOVES INTO PROGRESSIVELY LOWER THETAE AIR MASS...AND INTO SEVERE WW 53. BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW OVER INFLOW SECTOR FARTHER S -- ACROSS SERN MS AND SERN LA -- IS EXPECTED TO VEER SOMEWHAT AS REGION OF STRONGEST PRESSURE FALLS SHIFTS NEWD AWAY FROM AREA. THIS MAY REDUCE CONVERGENCE AND LIMIT ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT INVOF SRN PORTION OF CONVECTIVE BAND. VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES WILL REMAIN FAVORABLE...HOWEVER...WITH 0-1 KM SRH 400-600 J/KG AND 0-6 KM AGL SHEARS OF 60-80 KT. MLCAPES AROUND 500-1000 J/KG WILL DIMINISH THROUGH REMAINDER AFTERNOON AFTER PEAK SFC HEATING...BUT LIFTED PARCELS SHOULD REMAIN SFC BASED FOR REMAINDER OF DURATION OF WW. ..EDWARDS.. 03/09/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...BMX...HUN...MOB...MEG...JAN...LIX...LCH... 30839135 31808971 33438873 34948793 34788763 33098830 32048864 30818856 29738982 29249124 29599210 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu Mar 9 22:42:41 2006 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Thu, 09 Mar 2006 17:42:41 -0500 Subject: [MCD] {Spam?} SWOMCD Message-ID: <20060309224717.01017D45A2@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 092244 SWOMCD SPC MCD 092244 KYZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-TNZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-092345- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0213 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0444 PM CST THU MAR 09 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...FAR SERN MO/NERN AR...FAR WRN KY/SRN IL AND WRN TN CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 092244Z - 092345Z THREAT FOR ISOLATED SVR STORMS SHOULD CONTINUE TO MOVE EWD TOWARDS THE MS VALLEY IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. A WW MAY BE NEEDED BY 23Z. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS CLEARING CONTINUES IN THE WAKE OF A SQUALL LINE FURTHER EAST OF THE REGION. RECENT TRACKING OF THE BACK EDGE OF THE CIRRUS SHEATH INDICATES NEWD MOVEMENT OF 65-70 KTS. THIS SPEED HAS INCREASED OVER THE LAST FEW HRS...LIKELY AS A RESULT OF THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS BECOMING NEGATIVELY TILTED OVER AR. MEANWHILE...CONVECTIVE CLUSTER WAS MOVING AROUND 40-45 KTS. THUS...ALONG WITH INCREASING MID LEVEL COLD ADVECTION...SUFFICIENT DESTABILIZATION AND THREAT FOR SVR STORMS SHOULD CONTINUE TO DEVELOP FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS OVER NERN AR/SERN MO INTO FAR WRN KY/WRN TN AND SRN IL. IN ADDITION TO THE THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL/DMGG WINDS...STRONG LOW LEVEL SHEAR /300 M2/S2 0-1 KM SRH/ WAS BEGINNING TO REDEVELOP /PER BLM PROFILER/ OVER THE MS RIVER VALLEY. THUS AN ISOLATED TORNADO OR TWO WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE. ..CROSBIE.. 03/09/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...PAH...MEG...LSX...LZK... 38278852 37848779 36188845 35288898 35088961 35339101 35909144 38099004 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu Mar 9 22:52:53 2006 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Thu, 09 Mar 2006 17:52:53 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <20060309225515.E1D64D45A2@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 092254 SWOMCD SPC MCD 092254 KYZ000-TNZ000-VAZ000-GAZ000-NCZ000-ALZ000-MSZ000-092330- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0214 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0454 PM CST THU MAR 09 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL AND NRN AL/MIDDLE AND ERN TN/NRN GA/CENTRAL AND ERN KY CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 53... VALID 092254Z - 092330Z ONE OR TWO NEW WEATHER WATCHES WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED FROM GA NWD TO PARTS OF KY. STRONG SQUALL LINE WITH EMBEDDED BOW ECHO OVER NRN AL WILL CONTINUE MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST AT 55-60 KT...WITH THE BOW OVER NRN AL HAVING THE FASTEST SPEED AROUND 60 KT. LATEST SURFACE PRESSURE ANALYSIS INDICATED A PERSISTENT RISE/FALL COUPLET EXTENDING FROM CENTRAL MS /RISES/ INTO NRN AL/MIDDLE TN /FALLS/...WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO AID IN STRONG LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE...MAINTAINING THE FORCED LINE OF CONVECTION. VAD WIND DATA OVER MS IN THE WAKE OF THE SQUALL LINE/BOW ECHO INDICATED WSWLY LOW-LEVEL WINDS AT 55-70 KT IN THE 1-2 KM LAYER AGL. THIS WILL FAVOR THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS AS THE SQUALL LINE CONTINUES ENEWD. DESPITE MARGINAL INSTABILITY...STRONG AFOREMENTIONED FORCING WILL COMPENSATE FOR WEAKER THERMODYNAMICS SUPPORTING THE CONTINUED SEVERE THREAT EAST AND NORTH OF WW 53. ..PETERS.. 03/09/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...RLX...GSP...MRX...JKL...FFC...ILN...LMK...OHX...BMX...HUN...MOB...JAN... 32188877 34028740 36018706 37918592 38538446 38018264 35998326 35558335 33808360 32438422 32038692 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu Mar 9 23:42:17 2006 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Thu, 09 Mar 2006 18:42:17 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <20060309234443.2759BD45A2@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 092344 SWOMCD SPC MCD 092343 ALZ000-FLZ000-MSZ000-LAZ000-100015- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0215 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0543 PM CST THU MAR 09 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...SERN LA/SERN MS CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 50... VALID 092343Z - 100015Z WW 50 WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AS SCHEDULED AT 10/00Z. REGIONAL RADARS INDICATED STRONGEST STORMS HAVE MOVED NEWD INTO AL...WITH A FEW STORMS ALONG THE SRN EXTENT OF THE CONVECTIVE LINE INTO SRN MS. DEEP LAYER SHEAR REMAINS SUPPORTIVE OF ORGANIZED STORMS WITHIN MARGINAL INSTABILITY OVER SRN MS AND MODERATE INSTABILITY ACROSS PARTS OF SERN LA. HOWEVER...STRONGER FORCING WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NEWD AWAY FROM THIS REGION ACROSS THE TN/OH RIVER VALLEYS...SUGGESTING SEVERE THREAT WITHIN VALID PART OF WW 50 AND POTENTIALLY ADJACENT PARTS OF SWRN AL WILL BE MINIMAL ALLOWING THIS WATCH TO EXPIRE. ..PETERS.. 03/09/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...BMX...MOB...JAN...LIX...LCH... 29109161 30209162 31529017 32208848 32008745 30208758 29318891 28788915 28699063 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri Mar 10 00:53:26 2006 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Thu, 09 Mar 2006 19:53:26 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <20060310005552.A7CBFD4964@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 100055 SWOMCD SPC MCD 100054 OHZ000-KYZ000-INZ000-TNZ000-ILZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-100300- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0216 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0654 PM CST THU MAR 09 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...WRN AND CENTRAL KY/SRN IND/SWRN OH...SERN IL...FAR NERN AR AND WRN/MIDDLE TN CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 52...54... VALID 100054Z - 100300Z THREAT FOR SEVERE WINDS WILL END OVER THE REMAINING PORTION OF WW 52 IN THE NEXT HALF OF AN HOUR...THUS WW 52 WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 01Z. SVR THREAT MAY REDEVELOP AFTER 02Z ACROSS PORTIONS OF WRN/CENTRAL KY...SRN IND AND SWRN OH AND A NEW WW MAY BE NEEDED IN THESE AREAS BEFORE THEN. CONVECTIVE LINE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH WW 52 AND INTO WW 55 OVER CENTRAL/ERN KY. FURTHER WEST...WELL ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE LINE OVER THE MS RIVER VALLEY /WW 54/ WILL MOVE EWD FROM 35-45 KTS THROUGH REMAINDER OF WW 54 OVER THE 1-2 HOURS. GIVEN THE NEGATIVE TILT TO THE APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH ENHANCING MID LEVEL COLD ADVECTION...FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT SURFACE CONDITIONS OF AROUND 57/54 WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR SURFACE BASED THUNDERSTORMS AND MUCAPES AROUND 750 J/KG. GIVEN STRONG PRESSURE FALLS IN WRN KY/SWRN IND ENHANCING CONVERGENCE AHEAD OF CONVECTIVE LINE...A CONTINUED FORWARD PROGRESS AND SEVERE THREAT IS VERY POSSIBLE WELL BEYOND 03Z. THUS A NEW WW MAY BE NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF WRN AND CENTRAL KY/SRN IND...SWRN OH AND WRN/MIDDLE TN BEFORE THEN. DESPITE LINEAR STRUCTURE TO CONVECTIVE LINE...BACKED/STRONG LOW LEVEL FLOW AS EVIDENT BY THE PAH VWP /0-1 KM SRH AROUND 500 M2/S2/...WILL SUPPORT THREAT FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES. ..CROSBIE.. 03/10/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...ILN...LMK...OHX...IND...PAH...ILX...MEG... 39088417 39698466 38798836 37818925 36258959 35939009 35609018 35468872 35848762 36218646 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri Mar 10 01:21:04 2006 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Thu, 09 Mar 2006 20:21:04 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <20060310012331.B78A5D45A2@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 100122 SWOMCD SPC MCD 100122 TNZ000-NCZ000-GAZ000-KYZ000-ALZ000-100215- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0217 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0722 PM CST THU MAR 09 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN TN/FAR WRN NC/PARTS OF ERN AL/NWRN GA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 53...56... VALID 100122Z - 100215Z SEVERE THREAT IS EXPECTED TO END ACROSS WW 53 BY 0130Z AS STORMS CONTINUE TO MOVE INTO WW 56. THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS WILL PERSIST ACROSS WW 56...WITH GREATEST THREAT EXPECTED TO BE CONFINED TO NWRN GA AND ERN TN INTO FAR WRN NC...WHERE SQUALL LINE CONTINUES TO TRACK TO THE ENE AT AROUND 40 KT. FARTHER S...THE SRN EXTENT OF THE SQUALL LINE ACROSS EAST CENTRAL AL WAS MOVING TO THE ENE AT 30 KT. DECREASING COVERAGE IN LIGHTNING DATA DURING THE LAST HOUR /SINCE 00Z/ ACROSS WW 53 AND 56 COMBINED WITH LESS OF A SIGNIFICANT RISE/FALL COUPLET ACROSS THIS REGION AND A STRONG CAP ON THE 00Z ATL SOUNDING SUGGEST SEVERE THREAT WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE. ..PETERS.. 03/10/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...GSP...MRX...JKL...FFC...LMK...OHX...BMX...HUN...MOB... 32108774 32818686 34208600 35138578 35608585 36648533 36538334 35028363 33278467 32578537 32108648 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri Mar 10 02:18:02 2006 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Thu, 09 Mar 2006 21:18:02 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <20060310022244.5D019D4964@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 100219 SWOMCD SPC MCD 100219 OHZ000-KYZ000-TNZ000-INZ000-100315- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0218 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0819 PM CST THU MAR 09 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL-ERN KY/FAR SERN IND/SWRN OH CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 55... VALID 100219Z - 100315Z LOW-TOPPED FORCED LINE OF CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO POSE A THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS ACROSS THE SERN/ERN PART OF WW 55 THROUGH 0330Z. DESPITE LACK OF LIGHTNING ALONG THIS CONVECTIVE LINE...CURRENTLY EXTENDING FROM MONTGOMERY TO LAUREL COUNTIES IN ERN KY...NARROW AXIS OF WEAK INSTABILITY ALONG THIS LINE COMBINED WITH FORWARD SPEED AT 40-45 KT SUGGESTS THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS TO PERSIST. ALTHOUGH WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION EXTENDS ACROSS MOST OF WW 55... FAST MOVING /ENE AT 55 KT/ UPSTREAM BOW ECHO WITH THE APEX CURRENTLY APPROACHING WRN KY COUNTIES OF MCLEAN TO TODD IS EXPECTED TO ENTER SW-W PART OF WW 55 AROUND 03Z. GIVEN THE APPROACH OF THE UPSTREAM BOW...THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS REMAINS ACROSS ALL OF WW 55 AS STRONG MID-LEVEL COOLING/FORCING FOR ASCENT WITH NEGATIVELY TILTED TROUGH OVERSPREADS LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AXIS. ..PETERS.. 03/10/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...RLX...MRX...JKL...ILN...LMK...OHX... 39548478 39478272 38328269 37208299 36588395 36638640 38078588 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri Mar 10 19:36:29 2006 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Fri, 10 Mar 2006 14:36:29 -0500 Subject: [MCD] {Spam?} SWOMCD Message-ID: <20060310193847.606DCD46B5@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 101938 SWOMCD SPC MCD 101937 GAZ000-FLZ000-ALZ000-MSZ000-LAZ000-102130- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0222 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0137 PM CST FRI MAR 10 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS CENTRAL/SERN LA...SRN MS...SRN AL...WRN FL PANHANDLE...EXTREME SWRN GA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 101937Z - 102130Z SVR TSTM POTENTIAL MAY BE INCREASING ALONG GULF COASTAL PLAIN FROM SERN LA TO WRN FL PANHANDLE/SWRN GA...AND SLOWLY SHIFTING/ EXPANDING INLAND. COVERAGE SHOULD BE LIMITED BY MIDLEVEL CAPPING BUT VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES INDICATE SOME POTENTIAL FOR ORGANIZED CONVECTION. SOME PARTS OF THIS AREA MAY NEED WW THIS AFTERNOON. SFC MESOANALYSIS SHOWS WARM FRONT FROM SRN SC WSWWD NEAR LINE FROM MCN TO DHN...BLENDING WITH MARINE/SEABREEZE BOUNDARY WWD TOWARD MCB. COMBINED BOUNDARY DENOTES NRN EDGE OF RICHEST RETURN FLOW MOISTURE AND MOST UNSTABLE LOW LEVEL AIR MASS...AND IS MOVING SLOWLY INLAND AT UP TO 10 KT ACROSS MOST OF THIS CORRIDOR. LIFT APPEARS TO BE WEAK ALONG THIS FRONT. HOWEVER...DIABATICALLY DRIVEN DESTABILIZATION HAS REDUCED SBCIN TO NEAR ZERO ACROSS PORTIONS OF GULF COASTAL PLAIN ALONG AND S OF BOUNDARY...BASED ON MODIFIED RAOBS AND RUC FCST SOUNDINGS. VIS IMAGERY SHOWS CONVECTIVE CLOUD ELEMENTS THICKENING/DEEPENING OVER THIS REGION...AS BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING ATTEMPTS TO OVERCOME WARM/STABLE LAYER AROUND 700 MB EVIDENT IN AVBL MORNING RAOBS. WITH SFC DEW POINTS MID/UPPER 60S F...MLCAPES 500-1000 J/KG ARE AVAILABLE TO ANY SUSTAINED CONVECTION THAT CAN PENETRATE THAT STABLE LAYER...WHICH IS PROGGED TO WEAKEN. ALSO...WEAK CB HAVE BEEN FORMING ALL DAY LONG IN FRONTAL SEGMENT NOW LOCATED BETWEEN MOB-MCN...AND MAY INTENSIFY DURING NEXT 1-2 HOURS AS INFLOW LAYER IS OPTIMALLY HEATED. 0-1 KM AGL HODOGRAPHS ALONG AND S OF FRONTAL ZONE ARE FAVORABLE WITH 100-200 J/KG SRH IN THAT LAYER OVER MUCH OF REGION...HOWEVER PRONOUNCED FLOW WEAKNESSES IN 2-4 KM LAYER LIMIT DEEPER LAYER SRH. MRGL 0-6 KM AGL SHEAR VALUES OF 35-45 KT ALSO ARE EVIDENT. ..EDWARDS.. 03/10/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...TAE...BMX...MOB...JAN...LIX...LCH...SHV... 31338477 30408578 30338791 30339057 30609241 30949297 31439284 31859272 32349191 31909022 31638849 31578749 31888602 31908513 31838481 31508461 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri Mar 10 20:55:43 2006 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Fri, 10 Mar 2006 15:55:43 -0500 Subject: [MCD] {Spam?} SWOMCD Message-ID: <20060310205803.ECB72D46A8@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 102057 SWOMCD SPC MCD 102056 TXZ000-102300- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0223 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0256 PM CST FRI MAR 10 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS N-CENTRAL THROUGH SE TX CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 102056Z - 102300Z CONCERN IS INCREASING FOR SEVERE TSTM DEVELOPMENT OVER PORTIONS E TX DURING NEXT 2-3 HOURS...IN FAVORABLY SHEARED AND INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT. CONDITIONAL POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR DESTRUCTIVE HAIL...AND DAMAGING GUSTS. AREA IS BEING MONITORED FOR POSSIBLE WW. SFC MESOANALYSIS SHOWS DRYLINE FROM ABOUT 25 W ALI...10 E SAT...40 W ACT...40 SW FTW...LOSING IDENTITY FARTHER N WHERE AIR MASS TO ITS E HAS NOT YET MOISTENED IN RETURN FLOW. LOW LEVEL FORCING ALONG DRYLINE HAS LED TO CONCENTRATED CU/TCU FROM CORYELL COUNTY NWD TO HOOD COUNTY. ANY ACTIVITY DEVELOPING IN THIS REGION INITIALLY WOULD BE HIGH-BASED WITH 20-30 DEG SFC DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS...BUT MOIST ADVECTION WOULD INCREASE INFLOW-LAYER THETAE WITH TIME...AND MOISTURE WILL INCREASE FAVORABLY OVER E-CENTRAL/NE TX WITH TIME. FARTHER SE TOWARD CLL/LFK AREA...LOW LEVEL FORCING IS WEAKER BUT SO IS CAPPING...AND SFC DEW POINTS HAVE RISEN INTO MID/UPPER 60S F. MODIFIED RUC SOUNDINGS INDICATE CINH HAS WEAKENED TO NEAR ZERO ACROSS PORTIONS SE TX AROUND CLL/HOU/LFK AREA...IN ASSOCIATION WITH 1. STRONG HEATING/MIXING OF INCREASINGLY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER AND 2. SLY FLOW IN 750-900 MB LAYER...CONTAINING COOLER THERMAL PROFILES THAN WILL BE PRESENT IN SWLY TRAJECTORIES FCST TO MOVE OVER AREA BY ABOUT 00Z. FLOW ALOFT IS FCST TO VEER BY 00Z AS MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH -- EVIDENT IN MOISTURE CHANNEL IMAGERY AND VWP/PROFILER WINDS OVER S-CENTRAL TX -- CONTINUES TO LIFT NEWD TOWARD ARKLATEX REGION. THIS WILL INCREASE SBCINH THROUGH ADVECTION OF ELEVATED MIXED-LAYER AIR NEWD OVER AREA. PROFILER DATA INDICATE ABOUT 300 J/KG SRH IN 0-3 KM LAYER...AND 50 KT 0-6 KM SHEAR. ..EDWARDS.. 03/10/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LCH...SHV...HGX...FWD...EWX... 30709787 31649776 32409759 32659726 32929686 32699589 32229571 31539539 31179488 30919417 30179450 29789535 30599655 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat Mar 11 00:51:36 2006 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Fri, 10 Mar 2006 19:51:36 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <20060311005352.BE862D45A2@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 110053 SWOMCD SPC MCD 110052 OKZ000-TXZ000-110215- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0224 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0652 PM CST FRI MAR 10 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF SRN-ERN OK CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 110052Z - 110215Z ISOLATED STORMS WITH A POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE HAIL/STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ALONG THE RED RIVER FROM FAR NRN COOKE COUNTY TX NWD INTO SRN OK OVER JOHNSTON/PONTOTOC COUNTIES...WITH ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY DEVELOPING/SPREADING NEWD INTO ERN OK. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD NWD THIS EVENING INTO SRN OK...WITH THE 00Z FORT WORTH SOUNDING INDICATING A FAIRLY DEEP MOISTURE RETURN FROM THE SURFACE THROUGH 700 MB SINCE 12Z. A FEW STORMS DEVELOPED DURING THE LAST HOUR OVER COOKE COUNTY TX...WITH MORE RECENT DEVELOPMENT INTO SRN OK NE OF ADM. 00Z FORT WORTH SOUNDING INDICATED THE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL WITH THE STRONGER STORMS THIS EVENING GIVEN STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES...MODERATE INSTABILITY AND STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR. INCREASING SSWLY LLJ AND SUBSEQUENT INCREASE IN LOW-LEVEL WAA ACROSS ERN OK INTO WRN AR LATER THIS EVENING WILL FAVOR ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT WITH THE PRIMARY THREAT BEING HAIL FROM ELEVATED STORMS. ..PETERS.. 03/11/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...SHV...TSA...FWD...OUN... 33849732 34029729 34599707 35189695 35699644 35649452 34029467 33779601 33689683 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat Mar 11 04:11:53 2006 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Fri, 10 Mar 2006 23:11:53 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <20060311041407.E0567D4565@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 110413 SWOMCD SPC MCD 110412 ARZ000-MOZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-TXZ000-110545- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0225 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1012 PM CST FRI MAR 10 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN OK/WRN-CENTRAL AR/SWRN-SRN MO CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 58... VALID 110412Z - 110545Z NEW WW MAY BE REQUIRED OVERNIGHT TO THE E AND NE OF WW 58... PRIMARILY FOR PARTS OF CENTRAL AR INTO SRN MO. AT 04Z...REGIONAL RADARS SHOWED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ACROSS SERN OK FROM BRYAN TO PITTSBURG COUNTIES...WITH STORMS EXTENDING NEWD TO MAYES/DELAWARE COUNTIES IN NERN OK. THE STRONGEST ACTIVITY LOCATED OVER THE SRN PART OF WW 58 IS CLOSER TO THE INFLOW OF STRONGER INSTABILITY. THESE STORMS CONTINUED TO SHOW GREATER DEVIANT MOTION TO THE RIGHT OF THE MEAN WIND /ENEWD AT 25-30 KT/ AS COMPARED TO THE STORMS OVER NERN OK WHICH WERE TRACKING NEWD ALONG THE LLJ AT SPEEDS CLOSE TO 60 KT. THUS...STORMS THAT CONTINUE TO HAVE DEVIANT MOTION MAY POSE AN ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT. THE STORMS OVER NERN OK HAVE WEAKENED AS THEY MOVED FARTHER AWAY FROM THE BETTER LOW-LEVEL INFLOW OF UNSTABLE AIR. HOWEVER...AIR MASS OVER NERN OK INTO WRN AR AND EVENTUALLY SRN MO IS EXPECTED DESTABILIZE THROUGH THE NIGHT PER STRONG SSWLY LLJ TRANSLATING EWD FROM ERN OK INTO AR/MO. LARGE SCALE ASCENT IS EXPECTED TO BE SUFFICIENT FOR SUSTAINED UPDRAFTS GIVEN NEWD TRACK OF SHORT WAVE TROUGH...NOW LOCATED OVER WRN OK...AND WITHIN ENTRANCE REGION OF 70 KT MID LEVEL JET OVER MID MS VALLEY. THIS COMBINED WITH INCREASING ELEVATED INSTABILITY AND EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR VALUES SUPPORTING SUPERCELLS MAY REQUIRE A NEW WW OVERNIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL AR INTO MO AS STORMS DEVELOP/SPREAD NEWD. ..PETERS.. 03/11/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LZK...SGF...SHV...EAX...TSA...ICT...FWD...OUN... 33939757 36099651 36919523 38639422 38159196 35459210 34459345 33769528 33719648 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat Mar 11 05:04:49 2006 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Sat, 11 Mar 2006 00:04:49 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <20060311050704.9163CD42E0@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 110505 SWOMCD SPC MCD 110504 COR NDZ000-SDZ000-NEZ000-111000- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0226 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1104 PM CST FRI MAR 10 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...N-CNTRL NEB...CNTRL SD AND FAR SE ND CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW VALID 110504Z - 111000Z CORRECTED TO PLACE TIME IN FIRST PARAGRAPH. A NARROW CORRIDOR OF BANDED MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW WILL TAKE SHAPE FROM PORTIONS OF N-CNTRL NEB THROUGH CNTRL SD INTO FAR SE ND. SNOWFALL RATES OF 1 IN/HR ARE LIKELY...ESPECIALLY AFTER 08Z. SHORTWAVE IN VICINITY OF NERN CO/NEB PANHANDLE WILL LIFT NEWD OVERNIGHT AND STRENGTHEN ON NOSE OF 130 KT JET ACROSS THE CNTRL PLAINS. ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW NEAR MCK WILL TRACK NEWD TOWARDS FSD BY 12Z. STRONG LOW-LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS AND ISENTROPIC LIFT IS PROGGED TO COMMENCE TO THE NW OF THE LOW FROM CNTRL NEB INTO ERN SD. RUC/NAM-ETA SOUNDINGS DEPICT A SHARP DEFORMATION ZONE BETWEEN 800 AND 700 MB WITH FULL SATURATION OF THE DENDRITIC LAYER AROUND 600 MB. SUITE OF 00Z MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A RIBBON OF GREATER THAN 0.30 INCH LIQUID EQUIVALENTS IN A 3 HR PERIOD. NAM-WRF HAS BEST REPRESENTATION OF QPF THIS EVENING AND SUPPORTS AN INCREASE IN QPF OVERNIGHT AS BATCH OF SNOWFALL OVER N-CNTRL NEB LIFTS INTO CNTRL SD. FURTHER EAST FROM AROUND 9V9 TO ABR...RAIN SHOULD CHANGE OVER TO SNOW AS WET-BULB ZERO TEMPERATURES COOL TO FREEZING WITH INCREASED DYNAMICAL LIFTING OVERNIGHT. THE HEAVIEST SNOWFALL RATES SHOULD LIE JUST TO THE WEST OF THIS LINE WITH RATES OF 1 IN/HR LIKELY. ..GRAMS.. 03/11/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...FGF...ABR...BIS...LBF...UNR... 43950140 45260019 46369876 46379716 44709882 43479976 42250086 42450219  From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat Mar 11 07:28:39 2006 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Sat, 11 Mar 2006 02:28:39 -0500 Subject: [MCD] {Spam?} SWOMCD Message-ID: <20060311073104.6BAF9D45A2@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 110730 SWOMCD SPC MCD 110729 KYZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-TNZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-110930- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0227 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0129 AM CST SAT MAR 11 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...NERN AR / WRN TN / SERN MO / SRN IL / WRN KY CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 110729Z - 110930Z POTENTIAL FOR ELEVATED TSTMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE BETWEEN 08-10Z. CONVECTIVE TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED FOR A WW. 07Z MESOANALYSIS INDICATED WARM FRONT RETREATING NWD THROUGH CNTRL AR AND WRN TN WITH DEWPOINTS INCREASING THROUGH THE 50S INTO LOWER 60S S OF THIS FEATURE. ALOFT...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS LIFTING NEWD THROUGH CNTRL/ERN OK WITH DOWNSTREAM REGION OF FORCING FOR ASCENT CONTRIBUTING TO THE STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ONGOING OVER ERN OK INTO WRN AR. SLY LLJ HAS ALSO INTENSIFIED AHEAD OF THIS DISTURBANCE FROM THE SABINE RIVER VALLEY NWD THROUGH AR INTO MO AND THE MID MS RIVER VALLEY...WITH STRONG WAA CONTRIBUTING TO ADDITIONAL TSTM DEVELOPMENT N OF SURFACE WARM FRONT OVER SRN INTO SERN MO /PER RECENT LIGHTNING DATA/. RUC FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE CONSIDERABLE MOISTENING AROUND 850 MB WITHIN THIS WAA REGIME...BENEATH STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF 7-8 C/KM WHERE MUCAPES ARE INCREASING TO 1000-1500 J/KG. IT APPEARS THAT THIS ELEVATED CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP NEWD INTO THE MID MS RIVER VALLEY THROUGH 09-12Z ALONG NOSE OF AFOREMENTIONED LLJ. GIVEN THE POTENTIALLY MODERATE INSTABILITY AND 35-45 KTS OF EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR...ORGANIZED/ROTATING UPDRAFTS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT BEING LARGE HAIL. ..MEAD.. 03/11/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...PAH...ILX...MEG...LSX... 36029112 37209100 37779095 38519072 38799038 39048964 38898843 38238782 37048797 36128863 35688900 35569062 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat Mar 11 09:08:08 2006 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Sat, 11 Mar 2006 04:08:08 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <20060311091024.348A2D43A2@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 110909 SWOMCD SPC MCD 110908 KYZ000-TNZ000-INZ000-ALZ000-ILZ000-MSZ000-111045- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0228 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0308 AM CST SAT MAR 11 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...WRN AND MIDDLE TN INTO WRN AND CNTRL KY CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 110908Z - 111045Z EWD EXPANSION OF ELEVATED TSTMS MAY OCCUR EARLY THIS MORNING ACROSS DISCUSSION AREA...WITH MOST INTENSE STORMS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL. CONVECTIVE TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE WW. AS OF 09Z...REGIONAL RADAR AND LIGHTNING DATA INDICATED TSTMS BEGINNING TO DEVELOP OVER NRN MS /S OF MEM/ PRESUMABLY ALONG SRN FRINGE OF STRONGER FORCING FOR ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH SHORTWAVE TROUGH LIFTING NEWD THROUGH AR. ADDITIONAL...SHALLOWER CONVECTION IS ALSO BECOMING MORE WIDESPREAD TO THE NE OVER PARTS OF WRN AND MIDDLE TN INTO WRN AND CNTRL KY...LIKELY BEING DRIVEN MORE SO BY WAA/ISENTROPIC ASCENT ALONG LLJ AXIS. RUC OBJECTIVE FIELDS INDICATE THAT AMBIENT AIR MASS IS MODERATELY UNSTABLE /MUCAPES OF 1000-2000 J/KG/ ACROSS SRN HALF OF DISCUSSION AREA WITH CONSIDERABLE DESTABILIZATION OCCURRING FARTHER TO THE N ACROSS THE WRN HALF OF KY. LATEST TRENDS IN 11/06Z MODEL GUIDANCE DO SUGGEST THAT ELEVATED TSTMS WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH 12Z. GIVEN THE MODERATE INSTABILITY AND 35-45 KTS OF DEEP-LAYER SHEAR THROUGH THE LOWER HALF OF THE CLOUD-BEARING LAYER...POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR A FEW SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF MAINLY LARGE HAIL. ..MEAD.. 03/11/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LMK...OHX...HUN...PAH...MEG... 35058963 36248892 37478827 38008771 38148716 38278644 38008574 37178547 36288587 35318651 34818755 34568874 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat Mar 11 09:32:59 2006 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Sat, 11 Mar 2006 04:32:59 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <20060311093515.5986FD43A2@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 110934 SWOMCD SPC MCD 110934 INZ000-ILZ000-MOZ000-111100- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0229 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0334 AM CST SAT MAR 11 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL IL CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 110934Z - 111100Z POTENTIAL FOR MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE ACROSS DISCUSSION AREA THROUGH 11/12Z. THOUGH A WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED ATTM...CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED. AS OF 0920Z...REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY SHOWED A CLUSTER OF ELEVATED TSTMS OVER SERN AND E-CNTRL MO INTO FAR SRN IL MOVING NE AT 45-55 KTS. RUC OBJECTIVE FIELDS INDICATE THAT THIS ACTIVITY IS OCCURRING ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF RICHER 850 MB MOISTURE WHICH IS BEING ADVECTED NNEWD ALONG LLJ AXIS CURRENTLY EXTENDING FROM THE LOWER MS VALLEY INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST. WHILE AIR MASS WILL CONTINUE TO DESTABILIZE NWD OWING TO THIS INCREASE IN LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE BENEATH STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES...IT APPEARS THE STRONGEST INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN FARTHER TO S ACROSS THE MID MS VALLEY AND MID S...IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO SURFACE WARM FRONT. THEREFORE...EXPECT THAT A FEW STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL AS THEY MOVE OUT OF WW 60. THESE STORMS SHOULD TEND TO WEAKEN WITH NWD EXTEND AS AIR MASS BECOMES PROGRESSIVELY MORE STABLE. ..MEAD.. 03/11/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...IND...PAH...LOT...ILX...LSX...DVN... 38559090 39079146 40019150 40549064 40618945 40518804 39898706 39038708 38478751 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat Mar 11 10:24:25 2006 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Sat, 11 Mar 2006 05:24:25 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <20060311102641.EB262D4A5A@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 111026 SWOMCD SPC MCD 111025 MOZ000-ARZ000-OKZ000-TXZ000-111130- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0230 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0425 AM CST SAT MAR 11 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...WRN AND CNTRL AR INTO SRN MO CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 59... VALID 111025Z - 111130Z WW 60 LIKELY BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 11Z. DESPITE THE PRESENCE OF A MOIST AND MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS ALONG AND S OF WARM FRONT LIFTING NWD THROUGH WW...TSTMS CONTINUE TO WEAKEN EARLY THIS MORNING ACROSS PORTIONS OF CNTRL AR. PASSAGE OF SHORTWAVE TROUGH TO THE NE OF AREA MAY...IN PART...BE CONTRIBUTING TO THIS OBSERVED WEAKENING TREND...WITH STRONGER DEEP-LAYER FORCING SHIFTING INTO THE MID MS VALLEY. CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT WW 60 WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 11Z. OF INTEREST IS ENHANCED ZONE OF MID OR HIGH-LEVEL CLOUDINESS WHICH HAS RECENTLY DEVELOPED OVER SERN OK PER IR SATELLITE IMAGERY. THERE IS UNCERTAINTY AS TO WHETHER THIS IS AN ADVECTIVE FEATURE OR ONE GENERATED VIA LOCALIZED ZONE OF ASCENT. IT WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED. ..MEAD.. 03/11/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...PAH...MEG...LSX...LZK...SGF...SHV...TSA...FWD... 33879548 37289299 37259060 33839322 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat Mar 11 10:27:57 2006 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Sat, 11 Mar 2006 05:27:57 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <20060311103013.3C1B3D4565@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 111029 SWOMCD SPC MCD 111029 COR MOZ000-ARZ000-OKZ000-TXZ000-111130- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0230 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0429 AM CST SAT MAR 11 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...WRN AND CNTRL AR INTO SRN MO CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 59... VALID 111029Z - 111130Z CORRECTED FOR WW REFERENCE...SHOULD BE WW59 WW 59 LIKELY BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 11Z. DESPITE THE PRESENCE OF A MOIST AND MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS ALONG AND S OF WARM FRONT LIFTING NWD THROUGH WW...TSTMS CONTINUE TO WEAKEN EARLY THIS MORNING ACROSS PORTIONS OF CNTRL AR. PASSAGE OF SHORTWAVE TROUGH TO THE NE OF AREA MAY...IN PART...BE CONTRIBUTING TO THIS OBSERVED WEAKENING TREND...WITH STRONGER DEEP-LAYER FORCING SHIFTING INTO THE MID MS VALLEY. CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT WW 59 WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 11Z. OF INTEREST IS ENHANCED ZONE OF MID OR HIGH-LEVEL CLOUDINESS WHICH HAS RECENTLY DEVELOPED OVER SERN OK PER IR SATELLITE IMAGERY. THERE IS UNCERTAINTY AS TO WHETHER THIS IS AN ADVECTIVE FEATURE OR ONE GENERATED VIA LOCALIZED ZONE OF ASCENT. IT WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED. ..MEAD.. 03/11/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...PAH...MEG...LSX...LZK...SGF...SHV...TSA...FWD... 33879548 37289299 37259060 33839322 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat Mar 11 11:52:47 2006 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Sat, 11 Mar 2006 06:52:47 -0500 Subject: [MCD] {Spam?} SWOMCD Message-ID: <20060311115501.0D9B6D4712@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 111154 SWOMCD SPC MCD 111153 KYZ000-INZ000-TNZ000-ALZ000-ILZ000-MSZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-111330- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0231 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0553 AM CST SAT MAR 11 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...SERN MO / SRN IL / SRN IND / WRN AND CNTRL KY / WRN AND MIDDLE TN CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 60...61... VALID 111153Z - 111330Z POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED LARGE HAIL WILL CONTINUE ACROSS WW/S 60 AND 61 THROUGH 13Z. ADDITIONALLY...SOME MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE N AND E OF WW 61 OVER SRN IND INTO NRN KY. AS OF 1140Z...REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY SHOWED A CLUSTER OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS FROM NEAR MVN EWD TO 30 W SDF...WITH A GENERAL ENEWD MOTION OF 40-50 KTS. RUC OBJECTIVE FIELDS AND PLAN VIEW PROFILER/VAD DATA SUGGEST THAT THIS ACTIVITY IS OCCURRING WITHIN A ZONE OF STRONG LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION /I.E. AROUND 850 MB/ ALONG SWLY LLJ AXIS. THIS MOISTENING BENEATH STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF 7-7.5 C/KM IS RESULTING IN A MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS FOR PARCELS BASED IN THIS MOISTENING LAYER WITH MUCAPES OF 1000-1500 J/KG. THIS INSTABILITY COUPLED WITH MODERATELY STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR THROUGH THE CLOUD-BEARING LAYER WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT ORGANIZED UPDRAFTS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL...ESPECIALLY ALONG OR JUST N OF THE OH RIVER IN FAR SRN IND. SOME MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE N AND E OF WW 61...THOUGH IT APPEARS THAT DECREASING INSTABILITY WITH NEWD EXTENT SHOULD TEND TO LIMIT UPDRAFT INTENSITY. FARTHER S...ADDITIONAL CLUSTERS OF STRONG STORMS ARE ONGOING OVER SERN MO /NEAR CGI/ AND WRN TN /E OF MKL/. THIS ACTIVITY MAY BE MORE CLOSELY TIED TO WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH LIFTING NEWD INTO THE MID MS VALLEY. HERE TOO...AIR MASS IS MODERATELY UNSTABLE /MUCAPES OF 1000-2000 J/KG/ WITH SUFFICIENTLY STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR FOR ROTATING UPDRAFTS. THEREFORE...EXPECT THREAT FOR ISOLATED SEVERE HAIL TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS OVER SRN IL...WRN KY...AND WRN TN AS THESE STORMS MOVE NEWD. ..MEAD.. 03/11/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...ILN...LMK...OHX...IND...HUN...PAH...ILX...MEG...LSX...LZK...SGF... 35689264 38719112 38748745 38868581 38658495 37878462 37338578 34968755 34998973 35598943 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat Mar 11 12:30:14 2006 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Sat, 11 Mar 2006 07:30:14 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <20060311123235.11719D4932@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 111231 SWOMCD SPC MCD 111231 AZZ000-UTZ000-NVZ000-111830- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0232 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0631 AM CST SAT MAR 11 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL AND NRN AZ INTO SRN UT CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW VALID 111231Z - 111830Z HEAVY SNOW IS EXPECTED TO BECOME INCREASINGLY WIDESPREAD TODAY. LOCALIZED SNOW RATES APPROACHING 2-3 INCHES/HOUR WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH EMBEDDED CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS. ADDITIONALLY...INCREASING GRADIENT FLOW WILL RESULT IN CONSIDERABLE BLOWING AND DRIFTING. TRENDS IN REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY SHOW AN EXPANDING PRECIPITATION SHIELD FROM SERN CA/NRN BAJA NEWD INTO SWRN AND CNTRL AZ...IN ADVANCE OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING ONTO THE SRN CA COAST. THUS FAR...WINTER PRECIPITATION ALONG THE MOGOLLON RIM AND PLATEAU REGION HAS BEEN DRIVEN BY OROGRAPHIC FORCING OWING TO RELATIVELY STRONG SWLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW /PER AREA VWPS/. HOWEVER...WITH THE APPROACH OF THIS SHORTWAVE TROUGH...INCREASED DYNAMIC FORCING FOR ASCENT COUPLED WITH THIS OROGRAPHIC FORCING WILL RESULT IN AN INCREASE IN SNOW COVERAGE AND INTENSITY. MOREOVER...THE PRESENCE OF STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND RESULTANT CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY WILL SUPPORT A CONTINUATION OF EMBEDDED CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS WHICH WILL SIGNIFICANTLY ENHANCE PRECIPITATION RATES. EXPECT THE HEAVIEST SNOW RATES /PRIMARILY ABOVE 3000 FT MSL/ TO BEGIN AROUND 15Z AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. HOURLY SNOW RATES OF 1-2 INCHES APPEAR LIKELY WITH LOCALIZED BURSTS EXCEEDING 3 INCHES POSSIBLE. ..MEAD.. 03/11/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...GJT...TWC...FGZ...SLC...PSR...VEF... 32681040 34251332 34841446 35931460 37031375 37611305 37981234 37811074 36710926 34260915 33090908 32410941 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat Mar 11 13:53:22 2006 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Sat, 11 Mar 2006 08:53:22 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <20060311135537.20954D4932@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 111354 SWOMCD SPC MCD 111354 MNZ000-NDZ000-111800- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0233 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0754 AM CST SAT MAR 11 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN ND/FAR NW MN CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW VALID 111354Z - 111800Z BANDED MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT SLOWLY N THIS MORNING ACROSS ERN ND/FAR NW MN. SNOWFALL RATES OF 1 TO 1.5 IN/HR ARE LIKELY. MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW DEVELOPED OVERNIGHT ALONG AN AREA OF STRONG LOW-LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS AND ISENTROPIC LIFT. THIS ZONE NOW STRETCHES INTO ERN ND/FAR NW MN CO-LOCATED WITH CURRENT SNOW BAND SEEN ON KMVX RADAR. ASSOCIATED SHORTWAVE ALOFT IN ERN SD HAS SHOWN A SLIGHT DARKENING TREND OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS IN WV IMAGERY...INDICATING A SLIGHT STRENGTHENING OF THE WAVE. SURFACE LOW IN W-CNTRL MN IS PROGGED TO LIFT ALMOST DUE N TO THE LAKE OF THE WOODS REGION BY 21Z THIS AFTERNOON. THESE FEATURES WILL KEEP THE DEFORMATION ZONE AXIS ALIGNED ROUGHLY NORTH-TO-SOUTH ALONG THE RED RIVER VALLEY...AND WILL SUPPORT HEAVY SNOWFALL RATES OF 1 TO 1.5 IN/HR OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. RUC/NAM-ETA INDICATE WEAKENING OF THE FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING LATER THIS MORNING. SNOWFALL RATES SHOULD DIMINISH THEREAFTER AS THE HEAVIEST SNOW LIFTS INTO CANADA. ..GRAMS.. 03/11/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...FGF...BIS... 48909554 47009621 46009729 46189861 47449826 48999797 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat Mar 11 15:35:21 2006 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Sat, 11 Mar 2006 10:35:21 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <20060311153733.E53C5D4932@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 111537 SWOMCD SPC MCD 111536 ILZ000-KYZ000-TNZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-OKZ000-111630- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0234 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0936 AM CST SAT MAR 11 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...NERN TX...AR CONCERNING...OUTLOOK UPGRADE VALID 111536Z - 111630Z ...MODERATE RISK WILL BE EXTENDED NWD INTO PORTIONS OF SRN/ERN MO AND SRN IL ON THE 1630Z DAY 1 OUTLOOK... SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS MOVING NEWD THROUGH TX THIS MORNING WITH MOISTURE ADVECTING NWD INTO MO/SRN IL. INTENSE CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP FURTHER NWD THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING INTO MO/IL AND THE MODERATE RISK WILL BE EXTENDED INTO THESE AREA ON THE UPCOMING DAY 1 OUTLOOK. THE PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE VERY LARGE HAIL ...THOUGH TORNADOES ARE ALSO EXPECTED. ..IMY.. 03/11/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...PAH...ILX...MEG...LSX...LZK...SGF...SHV...TSA... 33599307 34069478 35999490 37489371 39089185 39389035 38918841 36908900 35149017 34339141 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat Mar 11 16:20:11 2006 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Sat, 11 Mar 2006 11:20:11 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <20060311162230.A71A8D4968@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 111621 SWOMCD SPC MCD 111621 CAZ000-112115- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0235 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1021 AM CST SAT MAR 11 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...HEAVY SNOW IN HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF SOUTHERN CA CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW VALID 111621Z - 112115Z HEAVY SNOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF SOUTHERN CA...INCLUDING THE SAN GABRIEL/SAN BERNARDINO/SAN JACINTO/LAGUNA MOUNTAINS...MAINLY ABOVE 2000-2500 FT. SNOW RATES OF 2 IN/HR WILL BE COMMON...WITH 3 IN/HR POSSIBLE WITH THE MORE INTENSE CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS. IN PRESENCE OF STRONG/DEEP UPPER TROUGH PER WV IMAGERY...RATHER COLD VERTICAL PROFILES EXIST ACROSS SOUTHERN CA AS EVIDENCED BY 12Z RAOBS FROM VANDENBERG/EDWARDS AFB/SAN DIEGO THIS MORNING. MESONET OBSERVATIONS/REPORTS ARE ALREADY INDICATIVE OF SNOW LEVELS AS LOW AS 2000-2500 FT...WITH RELATIVELY LITTLE FLUCTUATION EXPECTED PER LATEST FORECAST SOUNDINGS. STRONG JET DYNAMICS/OROGRAPHIC ASCENT WILL CONTINUE TO FAVOR HEAVY SNOW ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS OF SOUTHERN CA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. FURTHERMORE...EVIDENCED VIA 12Z OBSERVED RAOBS AND CG LIGHTNING FOCUSED ALONG THE SOUTHERN CA COAST...STEEP LAPSE RATES WILL CONTRIBUTE TO CONVECTIVELY ENHANCED SNOW RATES WITH LOCALLY LOWER SNOW LEVELS. ..GUYER.. 03/11/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...VEF...SGX...LOX... 33921653 33681640 33251642 32671635 32701675 33331698 33861729 34031756 34101782 34431777 34341678 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat Mar 11 17:57:55 2006 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Sat, 11 Mar 2006 12:57:55 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <20060311180008.BE355D4932@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 111759 SWOMCD SPC MCD 111759 MOZ000-ARZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-112000- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0236 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1159 AM CST SAT MAR 11 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN OK...NWRN AR...WRN MO...AND EXTREME SERN KS CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 111759Z - 112000Z SURFACE BASED STORMS MAY DEVELOP DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS ACROSS PORTIONS OF ERN OK...AND THEN SPREAD/DEVELOP NEWD INTO EXTREME SERN KS...SWRN MO AND NWRN AR. MONITORING AREA FOR A WW. ALTHOUGH THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE LARGE HAIL..TORNADOES ARE ALSO POSSIBLE. WEAK COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM NWRN MO AND SWWD INTO EXTREME SERN KS AND CENTRAL OK. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS ALSO MOVING NEWD THROUGH NRN TX AND MID LEVEL CONVECTION...INCLUDING ISOLATED LIGHTNING STRIKES...WAS LOCATED AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM ACROSS SOUTH AND EAST CENTRAL OK. THE OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS INDICATES THE CAP HAS WEAKENED ACROSS ERN OK...WHERE MID 70S TEMPERATURES AND 61-64 DEGREE DEWPOINTS WERE RESULTING IN MLCAPES NEAR 1500 J/KG. THIS INSTABILITY PLUS DEEP LAYER SHEAR AT 60-70 KT WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS...ONCE THE BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE CAN BE TAPPED. CURRENT THINKING IS SURFACE BASED STORMS MAY DEVELOP BY 20Z...AT WHICH TIME A WW WOULD BE NEEDED. ..IMY.. 03/11/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...SGF...EAX...TSA...ICT...OUN... 38259406 37939325 37449242 34729515 35689675 36269622 37679457 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat Mar 11 18:49:11 2006 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Sat, 11 Mar 2006 13:49:11 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <20060311185125.1BC91D4712@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 111850 SWOMCD SPC MCD 111850 CAZ000-112045- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0237 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1250 PM CST SAT MAR 11 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...COASTAL SRN CA... CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 111850Z - 112045Z BRIEF SEVERE HAIL/WINDS AND EVEN WATERSPOUT/TORNADO THREAT WILL EXIST THIS AFTERNOON ALONG THE SRN CA COASTAL AREA...BUT THE THREAT IS EXPECTED TO BE ISOLATED AND WW NOT ANTICIPATED. COLD TROUGH ALOFT WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES AND STRONG MID/HIGH LEVEL WINDS ARE RESULTING IN FAVORABLE WIND PROFILES FOR ROTATING STORMS. STRONGER CONVECTION IS CURRENTLY LOCATED 30-60 MILES OFFSHORE AND OTHER STORMS SHOULD DEVELOP OFFSHORE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THESE STORMS LIKELY WILL BE STRONGER OVER THE OCEAN WATERS...WHERE TEMPERATURES ARE WARMER THAN INLAND...RESULTING IN SLIGHTLY HIGHER INSTABILITY. HOWEVER...AS THE STORMS MOVE INTO THE COASTAL AREAS... THE INSTABILITY MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR HAIL/WIND EVENT AND POSSIBLY A BRIEF WATERSPOUT/TORNADO. IF A WATERSPOUT/TORNADO DOES DEVELOP NEAR THE COAST... THEY SHOULD WEAKEN AS THEY MOVE INLAND AND ENCOUNTER A COOLER BOUNDARY LAYER. ..IMY.. 03/11/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...SGX... 32551711 33321744 33491775 33581748 33181707 32631688 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat Mar 11 19:24:15 2006 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Sat, 11 Mar 2006 14:24:15 -0500 Subject: [MCD] {Spam?} SWOMCD Message-ID: <20060311192627.75719D4C14@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 111925 SWOMCD SPC MCD 111925 ILZ000-MOZ000-IAZ000-112100- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0238 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0125 PM CST SAT MAR 11 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...NORTHEAST/EASTERN MO INTO WESTERN/NORTHERN IL AND EXTREME EASTERN IA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 111925Z - 112100Z SEVERE THREAT EXPECTED TO DEVELOP/INCREASE ACROSS NORTHEAST/EASTERN MO INTO EXTREME EASTERN IA AND NORTHERN/WEST CENTRAL IL THROUGH MID AFTERNOON. A TORNADO WATCH MAY BE NECESSARY BY 20Z. OWING TO STEADY LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INFLUX/INSOLATION...AIRMASS CONTINUES TO QUICKLY DESTABILIZE ACROSS THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AHEAD OF COLD FRONT FROM FAR EASTERN IA INTO CENTRAL MO...AND WEST OF EFFECTIVE WARM FRONT LOCATED ACROSS WESTERN IL. DEEPENING CU FIELD IS ALREADY EVIDENT ACROSS EASTERN MO ROUGHLY BETWEEN COLUMBIA AND QUINCY IL...WHERE ADJUSTED RUC SOUNDINGS SUGGEST NEGLIGIBLE SURFACE BASED INHIBITION EXISTS. GIVEN DEVELOPMENT...MODERATE INSTABILITY VIA 1000-1500 J/KG MLCAPE AND STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS...WITH LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS. ISOLD TORNADOES WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY WHERE LOW LEVEL FLOW REMAINS BACKED AND/OR INTERACTS WITH EFFECTIVE WARM FRONT ACROSS IL. ..GUYER.. 03/11/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LOT...ILX...LSX...DVN...SGF...EAX... 42039019 41698859 41178803 39848866 38469020 38449140 38659310 39859224 40659140 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat Mar 11 21:29:17 2006 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Sat, 11 Mar 2006 16:29:17 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <20060311213133.63D62D4961@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 112130 SWOMCD SPC MCD 112130 MOZ000-ARZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-TXZ000-112300- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0239 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0330 PM CST SAT MAR 11 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN OK...MO...NWRN AR...SERN IA AND CENTRAL IL CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 62... VALID 112130Z - 112300Z TORNADO WATCH IN EFFECT UNTIL 02Z FOR PORTIONS OF ERN OK...NWRN AR AND SWRN MO. SEVERE STORMS...INCLUDING A FEW SUPERCELLS...WERE LOCATED ACROSS EXTREME NWRN AR AND SWRN MO. THESE STORMS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVE NEWD THROUGH NERN OK. THE STORMS SHOULD SPREAD NEWD DURING THE EVENING AND CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY. THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE LARGE HAIL...THOUGH THE DEGREE OF INSTABILITY AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR INDICATES TORNADOES ARE ALSO POSSIBLE. WITH CONTINUED HEATING...OTHER STORMS MAY REDEVELOP IN ERN OK ALONG A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT/DRYLINE THAT STRETCHED FROM NEAR TUL SWWD TO GAINESVILLE TX. AN AREA OF SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPEARS TO BE LIMITING DEEP CONVECTION ALONG THE BOUNDARY...BUT THE SUBSIDENCE SHOULD WEAKEN TOWARD 00Z AS THE TROUGH MOVES FURTHER NEWD INTO MO. ..IMY.. 03/11/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LSX...LZK...SGF...SHV...EAX...TSA...ICT...FWD...OUN... 33949686 37039521 39269266 38949170 38689142 37849130 37379131 35649354 33839472 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat Mar 11 21:51:22 2006 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Sat, 11 Mar 2006 16:51:22 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <20060311215335.75F4ED4712@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 112152 SWOMCD SPC MCD 112152 ILZ000-MOZ000-IAZ000-112315- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0240 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0352 PM CST SAT MAR 11 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN MO AND NORTHERN/CENTRAL IL CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 63... VALID 112152Z - 112315Z VALID PORTION OF TORNADO WATCH #63 CONTINUES UNTIL 04Z. DEVELOPMENT OF STRONG/SEVERE TSTMS CONTINUES TO QUICKLY OCCUR LATE THIS AFTERNOON FROM ALONG/JUST AHEAD OF COLD FRONT IN CENTRAL MO TO NEAR COLD FRONT/WARM FRONT CONFLUENCE IN WEST CENTRAL/NORTHWEST IL. THIS ACTIVITY WAS ROUGHLY LOCATED ALONG A COLUMBIA MO-QUINCY IL-MACOMB IL AXIS AS OF 2145Z. SIMILAR TO CURRENT TRENDS...SHORT TERM NUMERICAL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS AN ENE EXPANSION OF ONGOING ACTIVITY INTO EASTERN MO AND WEST CENTRAL/NORTH CENTRAL IL OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...WITH MEAN STORM MOTIONS TO THE NORTHEAST AT 40-45 MPH. LARGE HAIL WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE PRIMARY HAZARD OWING TO 1000-1500 J/KG MLCAPE AND STEEP LAPSE RATE/STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR ENVIRONMENT. LARGE HAIL UP TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER HAS ALREADY BEEN REPORTED IN COLUMBIA MO. ISOLATED TORNADO POTENTIAL THROUGH EARLY EVENING WILL MAINLY EXIST WHERE LOW LEVEL WINDS REMAIN BACKED AROUND TO THE SOUTH/SOUTHEAST AND/OR IN IMMEDIATE VICINITY OF WARM FRONT ACROSS WEST CENTRAL IL. ..GUYER.. 03/11/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LOT...ILX...LSX...DVN...SGF... 38149232 39039237 39829204 41009078 41478980 41478869 41248791 40238812 39478847 38538931 38058987 38019072 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat Mar 11 23:45:39 2006 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Sat, 11 Mar 2006 18:45:39 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <20060311234753.41524D4712@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 112347 SWOMCD SPC MCD 112346 WIZ000-ILZ000-120115- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0241 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0546 PM CST SAT MAR 11 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...FAR NORTHERN IL INTO SOUTHERN WI CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 112346Z - 120115Z THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR AN ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT TO DEVELOP/SPREAD ACROSS FAR NORTHERN IL INTO SOUTHERN WI OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...WITH A PRIMARY HAZARD OF LARGE HAIL. WILL MONITOR DEVELOPMENTAL TRENDS FOR A POSSIBLE SEVERE TSTM WATCH. SEVERE STORMS CONTINUE TO SPREAD NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL IL EARLY THIS EVENING...WITH THE NORTHERN EXTENT OF THIS ACTIVITY HIGHLIGHTED BY SEVERE LEFT MOVING SUPERCELL IN HENRY COUNTY IL /EAST OF MOLINE/ AS OF 2345Z. POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR THIS CELL AND/OR ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT TO BREACH THE NORTHERN PORTION OF TORNADO WATCH 63 ACROSS FAR NORTHERN IL AND SOUTHERN WI OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. STRONG SHEAR PROFILES AND STEEP LAPSE RATES/AMPLE BUOYANCY WOULD SUPPORT LARGE HAIL POTENTIAL...WITH LATEST RUC GUIDANCE SUGGESTING AROUND 1000 J/KG MUCAPE EXTENDING NORTHWARD INTO SOUTH CENTRAL WI. ..GUYER.. 03/11/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LOT...MKX...DVN...ARX... 43158816 41748842 41758923 41988999 43078996 43728972 43878912 43738834 43728836 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun Mar 12 00:09:49 2006 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Sat, 11 Mar 2006 19:09:49 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <20060312001200.99CEAD4932@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 120011 SWOMCD SPC MCD 120011 MOZ000-ARZ000-OKZ000-120215- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0242 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0611 PM CST SAT MAR 11 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN OK...NRN AR THROUGH SRN MO CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 62... VALID 120011Z - 120215Z LARGE HAIL REMAINS LIKELY WITH LINE OF SCATTERED SUPERCELLS FROM EXTREME NERN OK THROUGH SRN MO. ISOLATED TORNADOES ALSO REMAIN POSSIBLE THIS EVENING. MOST LIKELY ZONE FOR STORMS TO CONTINUE DEVELOPING REMAINS OVER SRN MO NEXT FEW HOURS. DEVELOPMENT FARTHER SWD INTO AR APPEARS LESS CERTAIN. ANOTHER WW WILL LIKELY NEEDED FOR PARTS OF SRN MO AND EXTREME NRN AR WITHIN THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS. EARLY THIS EVENING A FEW SUPERCELLS CONTINUE FROM SWRN THROUGH S CNTRL MO. STRONGEST LOW LEVEL MASS CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE INTENSIFYING LOW LEVEL JET IS EXPECTED ACROSS SRN MO NEWD INTO THE OH VALLEY THIS EVENING. STORMS SHOULD CONTINUE DEVELOPING AND SPREAD ENEWD AS THE LOW LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS AND MAINTAINS INFLUX OF HIGHER THETA-E AIR FROM THE MODERATELY UNSTABLE WARM SECTOR. DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS MORE THAN SUFFICIENT TO MAINTAIN SUPERCELL STRUCTURES. SHEAR THROUGH THE LOWEST 2 KM HAS NOT BEEN PARTICULARLY STRONG. THIS ALONG WITH HIGHER THAN OPTIMUM LCL HEIGHTS HAVE BEEN LIMITING FACTORS FOR MORE PROLIFIC TORNADO DEVELOPMENT. HOWEVER...THE STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET WILL MAINTAIN A WINDOW FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES THIS EVENING...BEFORE THE BOUNDARY LAYER DECOUPLES. LATEST VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWS TOWERING CUMULUS DEVELOPING ALONG CLOUDS STREETS ACROSS PARTS OF AR. HOWEVER...THE POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT APPEARS TO DECREASE WITH SWD EXTENT INTO AR DUE TO WEAK FORCING AND STRONGER CAP. NEVERTHELESS THIS AREA WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF FUTURE DEVELOPMENT. ..DIAL.. 03/12/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...PAH...LSX...LZK...SGF...TSA... 35819484 37599355 37748973 36748989 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun Mar 12 00:38:18 2006 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Sat, 11 Mar 2006 19:38:18 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <20060312004030.4F53BD4961@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 120039 SWOMCD SPC MCD 120039 ILZ000-MOZ000-120145- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0243 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0639 PM CST SAT MAR 11 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...NORTHERN/CENTRAL IL INTO EASTERN MO CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 63... VALID 120039Z - 120145Z VALID PORTION OF TORNADO WATCH 63 CONTINUES UNTIL 04Z. ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF TORNADO WATCH 63...PRIMARY POTENTIAL FOR AN ISOLATED TORNADO PERSISTS ROUGHLY FROM THE ST LOUIS METRO AREA SOUTHWARD...WITH LARGE HAIL OTHERWISE THE PREDOMINANT HAZARD. FURTHER NORTH...WELL DEVELOPED LINEAR MCS/BOWING SEGMENT HAS TAKEN SHAPE ACROSS CENTRAL IL OVER THE PAST 45 MINUTES...JUST WEST OF THE THE SPRINGFIELD AREA AS OF 0030Z. ALTHOUGH THE BOUNDARY LAYER STABILIZES WITH EASTWARD EXTENT...ADEQUATE LOW LEVEL SHEAR/SUFFICIENT DRY AIR ABOVE THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL FAVOR ORGANIZED COLD POOL MAINTENENCE. AS SUCH...THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS MAY INCREASE IN VICINITY OF SPRINGFIELD/LINCOLN/DECATUR IN THE SHORT TERM AS MCS SPREADS EASTWARD. FURTHER NORTH...PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL INTO NORTHEAST IL APPEARS TO BE LARGE HAIL. ..GUYER.. 03/12/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...PAH...LOT...ILX...LSX...DVN... 41088992 41588914 41418775 40818778 39248839 37988953 37899019 38009115 38339129 39069104 39569035 40158999 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun Mar 12 01:38:28 2006 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Sat, 11 Mar 2006 20:38:28 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <20060312014043.ECFBDD4932@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 120139 SWOMCD SPC MCD 120139 NMZ000-AZZ000-120545- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0244 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0739 PM CST SAT MAR 11 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...MOUNTAINS OF EAST CENTRAL AZ CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW VALID 120139Z - 120545Z HEAVY SNOW WILL CONTINUE/GRADUALLY FOCUS PROGRESSIVELY EASTWARD THROUGH THE NIGHT ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS OF EAST CENTRAL AZ...WITH SNOW RATES OF 2-3 IN/HR POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY ABOVE 2500 FT. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY/UPPER AIR DIAGNOSTICS FEATURE DEEP/COLD UPPER TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN STATES...WITH VERY STRONG MID/UPPER LEVEL JET WITHIN THE BASE OF THE TROUGH OVERSPREADING SOUTHERN CA INTO THE SOUTHWEST DESERTS. IN ADDITION TO FAVORABLE JET DYNAMICS...STEEP LAPSE RATES AND PRONOUNCED OROGRAPHIC ASCENT VIA STRONG MID LEVEL SW JET -- 60 KTS AT 700 MB IN TUCSON RAOB -- WILL CONTINUE TO YIELD HEAVY SNOW INTO THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF AZ...WITH A GRADUAL EASTWARD SHIFT OF THE HEAVIEST SNOW EXPECTED THROUGH THE NIGHT. SNOW RATES OF 2 IN/HR WILL BE COMMON...WITH 3 IN/HR RATES POSSIBLE IN ASSOCIATION WITH CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS IN PRESENCE OF STEEP LAPSE RATES...FURTHER EVIDENCED BY PERSISTENT LIGHTNING ACROSS SOUTHERN AZ. ..GUYER.. 03/12/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...ABQ...EPZ...TWC...FGZ...PSR... 35131217 35261138 34820989 34440915 33270848 33110909 33341014 33521079 34021203 34281237 34641246 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun Mar 12 01:47:02 2006 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Sat, 11 Mar 2006 20:47:02 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <20060312014917.B0106D4712@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 120148 SWOMCD SPC MCD 120148 ARZ000-TXZ000-OKZ000-120315- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0245 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0748 PM CST SAT MAR 11 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...NERN TX...SERN OK THROUGH W CNTRL AR CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 120148Z - 120315Z RADAR TRENDS HAVE SHOWN A RECENT INCREASE IN SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS SERN OK AND NERN TX. CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH THAT THE ENVIRONMENT CAN SUPPORT PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION IN THIS AREA. HOWEVER...IF THIS ACTIVITY BEGINS TO INTENSIFY...A WW MIGHT BE NEEDED FROM PARTS OF EXTREME NERN TX...SERN OK INTO W CNTRL AR. LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS EVIDENCE OF AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY OVER NERN OK THAT EXTENDS WWD AND INTERSECTS A DRYLINE OVER E CNTRL OK. THE SLY LOW LEVEL JET WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN THIS EVENING FROM ERN TX INTO SERN OK AND AR. THE STRONGEST LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE WILL LIKELY REMAIN ALONG AND N OF THE E-W ORIENTED OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ACROSS NERN OK INTO NWRN AR. HOWEVER...SOME INCREASE IN ASCENT AND WARM ADVECTION IS ALSO LIKELY FARTHER SWD. THE 00Z RAOB AND RUC SOUNDING DATA SHOW PRESENCE OF A MID LEVEL INVERSION BETWEEN 2.5 AND 3 KM. THE CONVECTION CURRENTLY DEVELOPING FROM NERN TX INTO SERN OK IS LIKELY SHALLOW AND MAY STRUGGLE TO DEEPEN THROUGH THE INVERSION. THIS LOWERS CONFIDENCE IN THE SEVERE THREAT. HOWEVER...IF TRENDS SUGGEST DEEP CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP OR IS IMMINENT...A WW WILL PROBABLY BE NEEDED. STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR FROM THE BOUNDARY LAYER THROUGH 6 KM WILL SUPPORT SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING PRIMARILY LARGE HAIL WITH ANY STORM THAT INITIATES WITHIN THE MODERATELY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT. ..DIAL.. 03/12/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LZK...SHV...TSA...FWD... 33319452 33319568 35089532 35299473 35509402 34259396 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun Mar 12 02:05:24 2006 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Sat, 11 Mar 2006 21:05:24 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <20060312020736.3270CD4932@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 120206 SWOMCD SPC MCD 120206 INZ000-ILZ000-120330- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0246 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0806 PM CST SAT MAR 11 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL/EASTERN IL INTO WESTERN INDIANA CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 63... VALID 120206Z - 120330Z VALID PORTION OF TORNADO WATCH 63...NAMELY THE ORIGINAL EASTERN/SOUTHERN PORTIONS...CONTINUES UNTIL 04Z. AN ADDITIONAL WATCH ISSUANCE INTO INDIANA IS NOT CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED...HOWEVER WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR CONVECTIVE TRENDS. RELATIVELY ORGANIZED STRONG/OCCASIONALLY SEVERE MCS WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH EASTWARD ACROSS EAST CENTRAL/SOUTH CENTRAL IL OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. CIRCULATION/VORTEX EVIDENT IN RADAR IMAGERY NEAR THE PONTIAC/BLOOMINGTON IL AREAS AS OF 02Z...WITH REMAINING PORTION OF MCS EXTENDING ALONG A BLOOMINGTON-TAYLORVILLE-TO NEAR ST LOUIS AXIS. POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS VIA THIS MCS...IN ADDITION TO THE POSSIBILITY FOR LARGE HAIL...WILL CONTINUE IN THE SHORT TERM. WITH EASTWARD EXTENT...WARM FRONT ACROSS IL HAS STRUGGLED TO DEVELOP EASTWARD EARLY THIS EVENING. WITH A RATHER STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER TO LINGER FROM FAR EASTERN IL INTO INDIANA...IT APPEARS AN ADDITIONAL WATCH ISSUANCE MAY NOT BE NEEDED EAST OF WW 63...WITH A DIMINISHING SEVERE THREAT EXPECTED. ..GUYER.. 03/12/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...IWX...IND...LOT...ILX...LSX... 41478830 41278697 40458675 39388700 38708803 38708834 38738936 38898977 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun Mar 12 03:10:24 2006 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Sat, 11 Mar 2006 22:10:24 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <20060312031236.50D39D4975@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 120311 SWOMCD SPC MCD 120311 INZ000-KYZ000-ILZ000-MOZ000-120445- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0247 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0911 PM CST SAT MAR 11 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...SRN THROUGH E CNTRL IL AND EXTREME WRN IND CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 120311Z - 120445Z SEVERE THREAT MAY DEVELOP EWD INTO SRN AND E CNTRL IL BY 04Z. SUPERCELLS AND LINES WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREATS...BUT ISOLATED TORNADOES MAY ALSO BE POSSIBLE. AREA WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED...AND A WW MAY BE NEEDED IF TRENDS SUGGEST STORMS WILL MAINTAIN THEIR INTENSITY AS THEY DEVELOP EWD. AN AREA OF SCATTERED SUPERCELLS EXTENDS FROM SERN MO SWWD THROUGH SWRN MO AND NWRN AR. LEAD SUPERCELL CURRENTLY OVER EXTREME SERN MO IN MADISON AND PERRY COUNTY WILL MOVE OUT OF WW 62 BY 04Z IF IT SURVIVES BEYOND THIS TIME. HOWEVER...THIS STORMS HAS RECENTLY SHOWN A WEAKENING TREND. SQUALL LINE ALSO CONTINUES OVER ERN IL. THE BOUNDARY LAYER IS LESS UNSTABLE WITH EWD EXTENT INTO IL/IND AND IS IN THE PROCESS OF DECOUPLING WHICH COULD POSE SOME LIMITING FACTORS. HOWEVER...STRONG SSWLY LOW LEVEL JET WILL MAINTAIN FEED OF HIGHER THETA-E AIR AND SUPPORT SOME NEWD DESTABILIZATION... ESPECIALLY ABOVE THE SURFACE LAYER. STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR WILL CONTINUE TO PROMOTE ORGANIZED STORMS INCLUDING SUPERCELLS AND LINES WITH LEWP/BOW STRUCTURES. TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE WW ISSUANCE. ..DIAL.. 03/12/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...IND...PAH...ILX...LSX... 37468968 39608826 39948693 37928771 37058916 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun Mar 12 04:49:07 2006 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Sat, 11 Mar 2006 23:49:07 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <20060312045118.4BF76D46B5@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 120450 SWOMCD SPC MCD 120450 INZ000-KYZ000-ILZ000-120545- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0248 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1050 PM CST SAT MAR 11 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...SERN IL INTO SRN IND CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 120450Z - 120545Z CLUSTER OF SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND TORNADOES MAY PERSIST INTO SRN IND. A WW MAY BE NEEDED FOR THIS AREA SHORTLY. STRONG LOW LEVEL JET WILL CONTINUE TO RESULT IN NEWD DESTABILIZATION WITH TIME INTO SRN IND AS WARM FRONT SHIFTS NEWD. STRONG LOW LEVEL AND VERTICAL SHEAR WILL MAINTAIN THREAT FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES. ..DIAL.. 03/12/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LMK...IND...PAH... 37648821 38528794 38598650 38118628 37638726 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun Mar 12 09:37:47 2006 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Sun, 12 Mar 2006 04:37:47 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <20060312093958.545A2D4961@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 120939 SWOMCD SPC MCD 120939 KYZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-TNZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-121115- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0250 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0339 AM CST SUN MAR 12 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...SRN MO / NRN AR / SRN IL / SWRN IND / WRN KY CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 68... VALID 120939Z - 121115Z THROUGH 11-12Z THE GREATEST THREAT FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL EXIST ALONG OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM APPROXIMATELY 20 NW POF TO S OF EVV. ELSEWHERE...ISOLATED LARGE HAIL WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE WITH STRONGEST STORMS. AS OF 0925Z...REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY INDICATED A QUASI-LINEAR CONVECTIVE SYSTEM EXTENDING FROM NERN OH SWWD INTO SRN MO WITH A GENERAL ENEWD CELL MOTION. WITHIN THE PAST HALF HOUR...TSTM OVER SERN MO /WAYNE CO/ HAS INTENSIFIED WHILE MOVING 255/35-40 KTS. MESOANALYSIS AND RUC OBJECTIVE FIELDS INDICATE THAT DOWNSTREAM ENVIRONMENT OVER FAR SERN MO...FAR SRN IL INTO WRN KY REMAINS QUITE FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS AND ISOLATED TORNADOES WITH MLCAPES OF 1000 J/KG...50-60 KTS OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND 200-300 M2/S2 0-1 KM SRH. ELSEWHERE...MERGING OUTFLOWS HAVE RESULTED IN A CONSOLIDATED TRAINING LINE OF TSTMS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL WITH HOURLY RATES OF 1-1.5 INCHES. IT APPEARS THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED LARGE HAIL EXIST ACROSS WRN PORTIONS OF WW AREA /NAMELY SWRN MO/ WHERE STRONG WAA IS ONGOING IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO PRIMARY LOW-LEVEL INSTABILITY AXIS SITUATED OVER OK AND N TX. ..MEAD.. 03/12/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LMK...OHX...IND...PAH...ILX...MEG...LSX...LZK...SGF...TSA... 37309471 39008655 36838648 35069475 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun Mar 12 10:31:19 2006 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Sun, 12 Mar 2006 05:31:19 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <20060312103330.7B955D4712@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 121032 SWOMCD SPC MCD 121032 KSZ000-OKZ000-121200- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0251 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0432 AM CST SUN MAR 12 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL AND ERN KS CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 121032Z - 121200Z POTENTIAL FOR A FEW SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF MAINLY LARGE HAIL IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE THIS MORNING. CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE WW. 10Z MESOANALYSIS INDICATED LOW PRESSURE OVER SERN CO WITH AN ATTENDANT WARM FRONT EXTENDING ESEWD ACROSS NRN OK INTO NRN AR. STRONG LOW-LEVEL MASS RESPONSE TO FALLING HEIGHTS AND PRESSURES OVER THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS IS RESULTING IN THE BACKING AND INTENSIFICATION OF NOCTURNAL LLJ FROM OK INTO CNTRL AND WRN KS. THIS PROCESS IS EFFECTIVELY ENHANCING THE TRANSPORT OF A MOIST LOW-LEVEL AIR MASS /I.E. AROUND 850 MB/ BENEATH STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF 7-8 C/KM. THIS DESTABILIZATION /CURRENTLY THE STRONGEST OVER S-CNTRL AND SERN KS WHERE MUCAPES ARE INCREASING TO 1000-1500 J/KG/ IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP NWD THROUGH CNTRL AND ERN KS THIS MORNING. REGIONAL RADAR AND IR SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATE COOLING CLOUD TOPS AND AN ISOLATED CONVECTIVE INITIATION OVER N-CNTRL OK/S-CNTRL KS...AND LATEST SHORT-TERM GUIDANCE FROM THE RUC AND GFS SUGGEST ELEVATED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY LIKELY THROUGH 12Z. GIVEN THE STEEP LAPSE RATES AND 50-60 KTS OF EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR...POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR ORGANIZED/ROTATING UPDRAFTS WITH THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER THREAT BEING LARGE HAIL. ..MEAD.. 03/12/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...SGF...EAX...TSA...TOP...ICT...GID...DDC... 37049790 37629848 38269868 39199804 39519687 39149551 37939472 37289488 36989618 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun Mar 12 12:53:25 2006 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Sun, 12 Mar 2006 07:53:25 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <20060312125545.6A6E2D4249@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 121254 SWOMCD SPC MCD 121254 KYZ000-INZ000-TNZ000-ILZ000-121430- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0252 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0654 AM CST SUN MAR 12 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...WRN AND CNTRL KY CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 68... VALID 121254Z - 121430Z POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS AND PERHAPS A TORNADO IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THIS MORNING ACROSS PORTIONS OF WRN AND PERHAPS INTO CNTRL KY. CONVECTIVE TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE WW. AS OF 1245Z...REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY INDICATED A FAIRLY LONG LIVED INFLECTION OR BOWING PORTION OF ENE-WSW ORIENTED CONVECTIVE LINE JUST S OF THE OH RIVER OVER WEBSTER...CRITTENDEN AND LIVINGSTON COUNTIES IN WRN KY MOVING APPROXIMATELY 270/40 KTS. THIS BOWING FEATURE HAS A HISTORY OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS EARLIER OVER FAR SRN IL. MODIFICATION OF 12Z BNA SOUNDING FOR PROXIMITY INFLOW AIR MASS /I.E. BWG/ INDICATES A WEAKLY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR SURFACE-BASED PARCELS WITH SBCAPES OF 800-1000 J/KG. HOWEVER...THIS SOUNDING AND LOCAL VWPS CONTINUE TO INDICATE RATHER STRONG LOW AND DEEP-LAYER SHEAR ACROSS REGION WITH 0-1 KM SRH OF 250-350 M2/S2 AND 0-6 KM SHEAR VALUES OF 40-50 KTS...RESPECTIVELY. GIVEN THAT AIR MASS SHOULD FURTHER DESTABILIZE THROUGH THE MORNING OWING TO INCREASED DIABATIC HEATING...IT APPEARS THAT SOME POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS AND PERHAPS A TORNADO MAY DEVELOP INTO CNTRL KY. ..MEAD.. 03/12/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LMK...OHX...PAH... 36708808 37178841 37818802 38188688 37788552 37388491 36868526 36628670 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun Mar 12 12:53:25 2006 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Sun, 12 Mar 2006 07:53:25 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <20060312125647.99810D4249@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 121254 SWOMCD SPC MCD 121254 KYZ000-INZ000-TNZ000-ILZ000-121430- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0252 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0654 AM CST SUN MAR 12 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...WRN AND CNTRL KY CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 68... VALID 121254Z - 121430Z POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS AND PERHAPS A TORNADO IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THIS MORNING ACROSS PORTIONS OF WRN AND PERHAPS INTO CNTRL KY. CONVECTIVE TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE WW. AS OF 1245Z...REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY INDICATED A FAIRLY LONG LIVED INFLECTION OR BOWING PORTION OF ENE-WSW ORIENTED CONVECTIVE LINE JUST S OF THE OH RIVER OVER WEBSTER...CRITTENDEN AND LIVINGSTON COUNTIES IN WRN KY MOVING APPROXIMATELY 270/40 KTS. THIS BOWING FEATURE HAS A HISTORY OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS EARLIER OVER FAR SRN IL. MODIFICATION OF 12Z BNA SOUNDING FOR PROXIMITY INFLOW AIR MASS /I.E. BWG/ INDICATES A WEAKLY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR SURFACE-BASED PARCELS WITH SBCAPES OF 800-1000 J/KG. HOWEVER...THIS SOUNDING AND LOCAL VWPS CONTINUE TO INDICATE RATHER STRONG LOW AND DEEP-LAYER SHEAR ACROSS REGION WITH 0-1 KM SRH OF 250-350 M2/S2 AND 0-6 KM SHEAR VALUES OF 40-50 KTS...RESPECTIVELY. GIVEN THAT AIR MASS SHOULD FURTHER DESTABILIZE THROUGH THE MORNING OWING TO INCREASED DIABATIC HEATING...IT APPEARS THAT SOME POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS AND PERHAPS A TORNADO MAY DEVELOP INTO CNTRL KY. ..MEAD.. 03/12/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LMK...OHX...PAH... 36708808 37178841 37818802 38188688 37788552 37388491 36868526 36628670 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun Mar 12 13:08:10 2006 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Sun, 12 Mar 2006 08:08:10 -0500 Subject: [MCD] {Spam?} SWOMCD Message-ID: <20060312131021.21B03D43A2@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 121309 SWOMCD SPC MCD 121309 MOZ000-KSZ000-IAZ000-NEZ000-121445- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0253 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0709 AM CST SUN MAR 12 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...FAR NERN KS / SERN NEB / NWRN MO CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 121309Z - 121445Z POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED LARGE HAIL IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP N OF WW 69 BY 14Z...AND A WW MAY BECOME NECESSARY. AS OF 13Z...REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY SHOWED A CLUSTER OF ELEVATED TSTMS OVER THE NERN QUARTER OF KS MOVING 215/40 KTS. SEVERAL REPORTS OF LARGE HAIL HAVE BEEN RECEIVED WITH THESE STORMS OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS. WHILE 12Z TOP SOUNDING INDICATED ONLY A MARGINALLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS /I.E. MUCAPES OF 500-700 J/KG/ FOR A PARCEL BASED AROUND 850 MB...ENHANCED LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN ABOVE NEAR SURFACE INVERSION WILL LIKELY CONTRIBUTE TO FURTHER DESTABILIZATION WITH TIME. THEREFORE...EXPECT THESE ELEVATED STORMS TO CONTINUE TO MOVE AND/OR DEVELOP NEWD INTO PORTIONS OF SERN NEB AND PERHAPS NWRN MO THIS MORNING WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL. ..MEAD.. 03/12/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...EAX...OAX...TOP...GID... 39659906 40279930 40659879 40749654 40619512 40249436 39309387 38789414 38769494 38839513 39589510 39639732 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun Mar 12 16:48:52 2006 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Sun, 12 Mar 2006 11:48:52 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <20060312165104.1ECFAD496F@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 121650 SWOMCD SPC MCD 121650 MNZ000-SDZ000-122115- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0254 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1050 AM CST SUN MAR 12 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL/SOUTHERN SD INTO SOUTHWEST MN CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW VALID 121650Z - 122115Z SNOW IS EXPECTED TO STEADILY INCREASE/DEVELOP EASTWARD ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN SD...AND EVENTUALLY SOUTHWEST MN...THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. SNOW RATES OF 1-2 IN/HR WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE HEAVIEST BANDS. WITH SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS ONGOING ACROSS EASTERN CO AND LEADING SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING OUT OF THE CENTRAL ROCKIES PER WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...EXIT REGION OF SOUTHERN ROCKIES/CENTRAL PLAINS UPPER JET AND ONGOING WAA REGIME CONTRIBUTING TO STRONG UVVS ACROSS SD. SIMILAR TO TRENDS ALREADY OBSERVED IN VOLUMETRIC RADAR DATA ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL SD...STRONG MID LEVEL /600-800 MB/ FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING IN ADDITION TO MODEST POTENTIAL INSTABILITY WILL PROMOTE WSW-ENE BANDS OF HEAVY SNOW THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THIS BANDING TENDENCY AND STRONG UVVS COINCIDENT WITH A DEEPLY SATURATED DENDRITIC LAYER WILL PROMOTE POTENTIAL FOR 1-2 IN/HR SNOW RATES. TRENDS/SHORT TERM WRF GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE HEAVIEST SNOW WILL LIKELY OCCUR ACROSS CENTRAL/SOUTHERN SD GENERALLY ALONG AND JUST NORTH OF I-90...AND INTO SOUTHWEST MN BY EARLY THIS EVENING. ..GUYER.. 03/12/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MPX...FSD...ABR...UNR... 44640284 44930081 45449797 45439609 44519587 44259620 43549785 43190036 43140140 43230230 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun Mar 12 17:15:46 2006 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Sun, 12 Mar 2006 12:15:46 -0500 Subject: [MCD] {Spam?} SWOMCD Message-ID: <20060312171755.2A60DD4968@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 121717 SWOMCD SPC MCD 121717 ILZ000-MOZ000-IAZ000-121845- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0255 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1117 AM CST SUN MAR 12 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...NORTHERN MO/CENTRAL IL CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 72... VALID 121717Z - 121845Z SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 72 CONTINUES UNTIL 21Z FOR NORTHERN MO INTO WEST CENTRAL IL. AN ADDITIONAL WATCH EASTWARD INTO CENTRAL IL MAY BE NEEDED SOON. ONGOING SEVERE THREAT PERSISTS ACROSS WW 72...WITH EASTERN EXTENT HIGHLIGHTED BY SUPERCELL WITH TORNADIC HISTORY ONGOING ACROSS MONROE/SHELBY COUNTIES OF NORTHEAST MO AS OF 1715Z. THIS ACTIVITY APPEARS TO BE FOCUSED ALONG SECONDARY/NORTHERN WEAK BAROCLINIC ZONE DRAPED ACROSS NORTHEAST MO INTO CENTRAL IL. ALTHOUGH THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES WOULD INITIALLY APPEAR HOSTILE TO SURFACE BASED CONVECTION...ORGANIZATION OF ONGOING STORM/S AND MODEST DOWNSTREAM HEATING/INFLUX OF PROGRESSIVELY MORE UNSTABLE AIRMASS MAY REQUIRE AN ADDITIONAL WATCH ISSUANCE SOON INTO CENTRAL IL. ..GUYER.. 03/12/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LOT...ILX...LSX...DVN...EAX... 40429338 40779012 40768822 39738789 39048808 38839071 38899240 38979297 39409332 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun Mar 12 17:27:53 2006 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Sun, 12 Mar 2006 12:27:53 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <20060312173001.84AE9D43A2@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 121729 SWOMCD SPC MCD 121729 ARZ000-MOZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-121930- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0256 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1129 AM CST SUN MAR 12 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN KS...ERN OK...SW MO CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 121729Z - 121930Z SUPERCELLS WILL LIKELY INITIATE THIS AFTERNOON ALONG A DRYLINE FROM ERN KS TO CNTRL OK. DAMAGING TORNADOES...VERY LARGE HAIL AND WIND DAMAGE WILL BE LIKELY AS STORMS INITIATE AND TRACK ENEWD ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. A TORNADO WATCH WILL BE ISSUED SHORTLY. SFC ANALYSIS CURRENTLY SHOWS A DRYLINE ORIENTED FROM NORTH TO SOUTH FROM SCNTRL KS TO SOUTHWEST OK. SFC DEWPOINTS EAST OF THE DRYLINE ARE IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S F WHERE MODERATE INSTABILITY IS PRESENT. THE CAPPING INVERSION IS VERY WEAK AND STORMS SHOULD INITIATE AS LARGE-SCALE ASCENT INCREASES AS A 100 KT MID-LEVEL JET MAX NOSES INTO THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. SUPERCELLS WILL BE LIKELY DUE TO THE MODERATE INSTABILITY AND STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR. IN ADDITION...STRONG LOW-LEVEL SHEAR EVIDENT ON REGIONAL PROFILERS WILL CREATE AN ENVIRONMENT FAVORABLE FOR TORNADOES. LONG TRACK STRONG TO VIOLENT TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH LONG-LIVED SUPERCELLS THAT DEVELOP AND TRACK ENEWD ACROSS ERN OK AND ERN KS LATE THIS AFTERNOON. STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR VERY LARGE HAIL WITH WIND DAMAGE ALSO LIKELY WITH THE STRONGER STORMS ..BROYLES.. 03/12/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...SGF...SHV...EAX...TSA...TOP...ICT...OUN... 34439643 34679715 35169733 35459726 36429707 37439711 38359715 38599644 38669508 38269445 36769432 35189450 34489487 34449552 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun Mar 12 18:10:07 2006 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Sun, 12 Mar 2006 13:10:07 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <20060312181215.734C0D4249@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 121811 SWOMCD SPC MCD 121810 IAZ000-121945- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0257 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1210 PM CST SUN MAR 12 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTHERN/CENTRAL IA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 121810Z - 121945Z SEVERE THREAT MAY INCREASE THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON ACROSS SOUTHERN/CENTRAL IA...WITH PRIMARY HAZARD OF LARGE HAIL. WILL MONITOR FOR A POSSIBLE WATCH. STRONG/SEVERE STORMS ONGOING AT MIDDAY ACROSS MUCH OF NORTHERN MO...WITH THIS ACTIVITY LIKELY TO CONTINUE TO SPREAD NORTHEASTWARD WITH ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT ACROSS SOUTHERN/CENTRAL IA THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. CURRENTLY WELL NORTH OF SURFACE WARM FRONT ACROSS MO...STRONG LOW LEVEL JET/WARM CONVEYOR WILL CONTINUE TO TRANSPORT AN ELEVATED UNSTABLE AIRMASS NORTHWARD ABOVE A COOL BOUNDARY LAYER. STRONG CLOUD BEARING SHEAR AND STEEP LAPSE RATES WITH POTENTIAL FOR 750-1000 J/KG MUCAPE WILL PROMOTE A LARGE HAIL THREAT. ..GUYER.. 03/12/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...DVN...DMX...OAX... 40669370 40769555 41369566 42109339 41869158 40789129 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun Mar 12 19:01:51 2006 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Sun, 12 Mar 2006 14:01:51 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <20060312190359.A1C80D4968@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 121903 SWOMCD SPC MCD 121902 KYZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-122030- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0258 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0102 PM CST SUN MAR 12 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...WRN KY...SRN IL...SRN IND CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 121902Z - 122030Z SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT APPEARS LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE REGION. HAIL AND ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE WOULD BE THE MOST LIKELY THREATS. HOWEVER...AN ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT WOULD ALSO BE POSSIBLE WITH SUPERCELLS THAT INITIATE. A WW MAY BECOME NECESSARY WITHIN 1 TO 2 HOURS. SFC ANALYSIS CURRENTLY SHOWS A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY ORIENTED WSW TO ENE ACROSS SRN IL INTO CNTRL IND. A LINE OF MORNING STORMS FORMED ALONG THE BOUNDARY AND MOVED SWD INTO WRN KY SPREADING A COLD POOL ACROSS THE AREA. HOWEVER...VISIBLE SATELLITE SHOWS CLEARING ACROSS PARTS OF WRN KY OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS. THIS SHOULD ALLOW SFC TEMPS TO WARM THIS AFTERNOON INCREASING THE INSTABILITY AND ALLOWING NEW THUNDERSTORMS TO INITIATE. IF STORMS INITIATE...88D VWPS SUGGEST ENOUGH VERTICAL SHEAR IS IN PLACE FOR ORGANIZED MULTICELLS AND ISOLATED SUPERCELLS. HAIL...WIND DAMAGE AND AN ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER STORMS. ..BROYLES.. 03/12/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LMK...IND...PAH... 38448671 38278570 37898542 37408544 37068568 37058585 36988693 37018723 37198866 37438891 37798899 38128886 38378866 38538816 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun Mar 12 19:27:44 2006 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Sun, 12 Mar 2006 14:27:44 -0500 Subject: [MCD] {Spam?} SWOMCD Message-ID: <20060312192952.85C7FD4249@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 121929 SWOMCD SPC MCD 121929 MOZ000-KSZ000-122100- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0259 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0129 PM CST SUN MAR 12 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...EASTERN KS/MUCH OF MO INTO WESTERN/CENTRAL IL CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 73... VALID 121929Z - 122100Z PDS TORNADO WATCH 73 CONTINUES UNTIL 04Z...WITH SIGNIFICANT SEVERE THREAT OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS ESPECIALLY ACROSS EASTERN KS/WESTERN MO...INCLUDING THE KC METRO AREA. SPECIFICALLY REGARDING THE WESTERN PORTION OF TORNADO WATCH 73 ACROSS EASTERN KS/WESTERN MO...SCATTERED SUPERCELLS /ALREADY POTENTIALLY TORNADIC/ CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS EASTERN KS AND MOVE ENE...ALONG A OTTAWA-CHANUTE-INDEPENDENCE CORRIDOR AS OF 1930Z. SURFACE MESOANALYSIS/VIS SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICT WARM FRONT STEADILY LIFTING NORTHWARD ACROSS NORTHEAST KS/KC METRO AREA AND CENTRAL MO. ALONG/SOUTH OF THE WARM FRONT...AMBIENT WARM SECTOR IS CHARACTERIZED BY A RATHER FAVORABLE COMBINATION OF STRONG INSTABILITY/VERTICAL SHEAR FOR A SIGNIFICANT SEVERE THREAT... REFERENCE 18Z SPRINGFIELD MO OBSERVED RAOB. POTENTIAL FOR SUPERCELLS PRODUCING VERY LARGE HAIL/POSSIBLY SIGNIFICANT TORNADOES WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN THE SHORT TERM FROM FAR EASTERN KS INTO WESTERN MO...INCLUDING THE GREATER KANSAS CITY METRO AREA SOUTHWARD TO THE JOPLIN VICINITY. ..GUYER.. 03/12/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LSX...SGF...EAX...TOP...ICT... 38559621 39889540 39699145 37729061 37219446 37239599 37739631 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun Mar 12 20:32:41 2006 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Sun, 12 Mar 2006 15:32:41 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <20060312203449.1CDEED47F7@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 122033 SWOMCD SPC MCD 122033 ILZ000-IAZ000-122200- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0260 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0233 PM CST SUN MAR 12 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTHEAST IA INTO NORTHERN IL CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 122033Z - 122200Z ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT MAY DEVELOP INTO NORTHERN IL OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...WITH A PRIMARY HAZARD OF POTENTIALLY SEVERE HAIL THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH NOT CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED...WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR A POSSIBLE WATCH FROM SOUTHERN IA INTO NORTHERN IL. STRONG/OCCASIONALLY SEVERE STORMS-- WITH PRIOR HISTORY OF HAIL AND STRONG WINDS -- CONTINUES TO MOVE ENE ACROSS SOUTHEAST IA /SOUTHWEST OF THE QUAD CITIES/ AS OF 2030Z. ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT HAS ALSO RECENTLY OCCURRED NEAR THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. WHILE BOUNDARY LAYER REMAINS COOL/WELL STABILIZED ACROSS NORTHERN IL NORTH OF WARM FRONT...INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE ELEVATED AIRMASS WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT TOWARD THE REGION...WITH MODEST LAPSE RATES/MARGINAL ELEVATED INSTABILITY SUPPORTING HAIL POTENTIAL. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR TRENDS...BUT A GREATER SEVERE THREAT WILL LIKELY EXIST LATER THIS EVENING. ..GUYER.. 03/12/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LOT...ILX...DVN... 40849186 41329210 42139125 42158906 42128867 42028841 41538826 41158833 40948961 40799097 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun Mar 12 21:01:58 2006 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Sun, 12 Mar 2006 16:01:58 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <20060312210407.5DB7CD4249@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 122102 SWOMCD SPC MCD 122102 ILZ000-MOZ000-KSZ000-122230- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0261 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0302 PM CST SUN MAR 12 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...EASTERN KS/MUCH OF MO INTO WESTERN/CENTRAL IL CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 73... VALID 122102Z - 122230Z PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS TORNADO WATCH #73 CONTINUES ACROSS EASTERN KS/MUCH OF MO INTO WESTERN/CENTRAL IL THROUGH 04Z...WITH PRIMARY THREAT FOR TORNADOES/VERY LARGE HAIL SPREADING INTO WEST CENTRAL MO AT MID AFTERNOON. PRONOUNCED/DISTINCT SUPERCELLS ONGOING EAST/SOUTHEAST OF THE KC METRO AREA AT THIS TIME...FROM RAY COUNTY MO TO BATES/HENRY COUNTIES MO AT 21Z. MESOANALYSIS/SATELLITE TRENDS CONTINUE TO PORTRAY WARM FRONT STEADILY LIFTING NORTHWARD ACROSS NORTHEAST KS AND NORTH CENTRAL MO. AS IT DOES...NEAR STORM ENVIRONMENT ALONG/SOUTH OF THE WARM FRONT IN MO REMAINS VERY FAVORABLE FOR ROTATING STORMS...POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT TORNADOES...AND DESTRUCTIVE HAIL. AN ENHANCED/PROLONGED TORNADIC THREAT MAY EXIST IN VICINITY OF THIS WEST-EAST ORIENTED WARM FRONT -- LOCATED FROM THE KC METRO AREA TO NEAR COLUMBIA MO AT 21Z. OTHERWISE...ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT APPEARS LIKELY LATE THIS AFTERNOON ALONG THE DRYLINE IN VICINITY OF AGITATED CU FIELD ACROSS SOUTHEAST KS. ..GUYER.. 03/12/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...ILX...LSX...DVN...SGF...EAX...TOP...ICT... 37159616 39199552 40199392 40329135 39768973 38758950 38208980 37629123 37239374 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun Mar 12 21:37:28 2006 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Sun, 12 Mar 2006 16:37:28 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <20060312213937.DA5ADD47F7@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 122138 SWOMCD SPC MCD 122138 ARZ000-MOZ000-TXZ000-OKZ000-122345- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0262 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0338 PM CST SUN MAR 12 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN OK...WRN AR AND FAR NE TX CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 74... VALID 122138Z - 122345Z SUPERCELLS ARE EXPECTED TO INITIATE AND TRACK ENEWD ACROSS ERN OK INTO WRN AR LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THE INITIATION OF ISOLATED SUPERCELLS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE IN FAR NE TX BY EARLY EVENING. VERY LARGE HAIL AND WIND DAMAGE WILL BE LIKELY SHORTLY AFTER INITIATION WITH SIGNIFICANT TORNADOES POSSIBLE. A NEW TORNADO WATCH MAY BECOME NECESSARY SOUTH OF TORNADO WATCH 74 ACROSS SE OK AND NE TX LATE THIS AFTERNOON OR EARLY THIS EVENING. SFC ANALYSIS CURRENTLY SHOWS A DRYLINE EXTENDING SSWWD ACROSS CNTRL OK INTO NCNTRL TX. OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS SHOWS A MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIRMASS EAST OF THE DRYLINE WITH STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR IN PLACE WHICH WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS UPON INITIATION. MODERATE CUMULUS IS EVIDENT ON VISIBLE IMAGERY JUST SOUTHEAST OF THE OKC METRO WITH OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS SHOWING THE CAPPING INVERSION GONE ACROSS ECNTRL OK. AS LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE CONTINUES TO INCREASE ALONG THE DRYLINE AND LARGE-SCALE ASCENT SPREADS NEWD AHEAD OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...RAPID SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT APPEARS LIKELY BETWEEN 22Z AND 00Z. THE MOST LIKELY AREA FOR INITIATION WOULD BE EAST TO SOUTHEAST OF THE OKC METRO AREA WHERE THE CUMULUS FIELD APPEARS A BIT AGITATED. ADDITIONAL STORMS SHOULD DEVELOP SWD INTO FAR NE TX AS THE CAP WEAKENS SOUTH OF THE RED RIVER BY EARLY THIS EVENING. STRONG LOW-LEVEL SHEAR COMBINED WITH LOW LCL HEIGHTS WILL MAKE TORNADOES LIKELY WITH THE STRONGER SUPERCELLS THAT DEVELOP. SIGNIFICANT TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH VERY LARGE HAIL AND WIND DAMAGE LIKELY. ..BROYLES.. 03/12/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LZK...SGF...SHV...TSA...FWD...OUN... 36679381 35949367 34779403 33689445 33039526 32999592 33089650 33309730 34049729 35079700 36379655 36869611 36979507 36789427 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun Mar 12 22:20:55 2006 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Sun, 12 Mar 2006 17:20:55 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <20060312222304.1507BD4961@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 122222 SWOMCD SPC MCD 122222 INZ000-ILZ000-IAZ000-122315- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0263 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0422 PM CST SUN MAR 12 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTHEAST IA/NORTHERN IL INTO NORTHWEST INDIANA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 122222Z - 122315Z SEVERE THREAT TO STEADILY INCREASE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING ACROSS SOUTHEAST IA/NORTHERN IL INTO NORTHWEST INDIANA...A WATCH APPEARS LIKELY SOON. AIRMASS CONTINUES TO QUICKLY DESTABILIZE ACROSS THE REGION ALONG/NORTH OF WARM FRONT ACROSS CENTRAL PORTIONS OF MO/IL. SEVERE THREAT LIKELY TO INCREASE STEADILY INTO THE EVENING...WITH INITIAL PRIMARY POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL THIS AFTERNOON...AND AN INCREASING TORNADO/DAMAGING WIND THREAT THIS EVENING. ..GUYER.. 03/12/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...IWX...LOT...ILX...DVN...DMX... 41819210 42238989 42078826 41538670 41098686 40808868 40779028 40689215 41119260 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun Mar 12 23:01:44 2006 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Sun, 12 Mar 2006 18:01:44 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <20060312230352.71C6DD4249@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 122303 SWOMCD SPC MCD 122302 INZ000-ILZ000-IAZ000-130030- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0264 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0502 PM CST SUN MAR 12 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...EASTERN KS/MUCH OF MO INTO WESTERN/CENTRAL IL CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 73... VALID 122302Z - 130030Z TORNADO WATCH 73 CONTINUES UNTIL 04Z FROM FAR EASTERN KS INTO WESTERN/CENTRAL IL. ENHANCED POTENTIAL FOR DESTRUCTIVE TORNADOES/VERY LARGE HAIL IS SHIFTING EAST ACROSS EAST CENTRAL MO INTO WEST CENTRAL IL /POTENTIALLY NEAR THE ST LOUIS METRO/ EARLY THIS EVENING. FURTHER WEST...ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT IS ANTICIPATED ALONG THE DRYLINE IN SOUTHEAST KS. THERE APPEARS TO BE ENHANCED POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT TORNADOES/DESTRUCTIVE HAIL ACROSS EAST CENTRAL MO INTO WEST CENTRAL IL THROUGH AT LEAST 02Z...POTENTIALLY NEAR/JUST NORTH OF THE ST LOUIS METRO AREA. SUPERCELLS WITH TORNADIC HISTORY ARE CURRENTLY MOVING ENE ALONG/JUST NORTH OF I-70 NEAR COLUMBIA MO. THESE STORMS ARE LIKELY TO CONTINUE TO RIDE THE ROUGHLY WEST-EAST ORIENTED BAROCLINIC ZONE ACROSS CENTRAL MO INTO CENTRAL IL AS DELINEATED VIA SURFACE MESOANALYSIS/VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY. THESE STORMS SHOULD REACH THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER AROUND 0030Z. FURTHER WEST...INCREASING STORM COVERAGE IS ANTICIPATED ACROSS SOUTHEAST KS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...LEADING TO A RENEWED THREAT FOR TORNADOES/VERY LARGE HAIL THIS EVENING INTO WESTERN MO. CU FIELD REMAINS AGGRESSIVE ACROSS SOUTHEAST KS AMIDST NEGLIGIBLE CINH PER ADJUSTED RUC SOUNDINGS. ..GUYER.. 03/12/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...IWX...LOT...ILX...DVN...DMX... 41819210 42238989 42078826 41538670 41098686 40808868 40779028 40689215 41119260 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun Mar 12 23:06:08 2006 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Sun, 12 Mar 2006 18:06:08 -0500 Subject: [MCD] {Spam?} SWOMCD Message-ID: <20060312230821.B08C5D43A2@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 122306 SWOMCD SPC MCD 122306 COR ILZ000-MOZ000-IAZ000-KSZ000-130030- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0264 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0506 PM CST SUN MAR 12 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...EASTERN KS/MUCH OF MO INTO WESTERN/CENTRAL IL CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 73... VALID 122306Z - 130030Z CORRECTED FOR MCD GRAPHIC TORNADO WATCH 73 CONTINUES UNTIL 04Z FROM FAR EASTERN KS INTO WESTERN/CENTRAL IL. ENHANCED POTENTIAL FOR DESTRUCTIVE TORNADOES/VERY LARGE HAIL IS SHIFTING EAST ACROSS EAST CENTRAL MO INTO WEST CENTRAL IL /POTENTIALLY NEAR THE ST LOUIS METRO/ EARLY THIS EVENING. FURTHER WEST...ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT IS ANTICIPATED ALONG THE DRYLINE IN SOUTHEAST KS. THERE APPEARS TO BE ENHANCED POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT TORNADOES/DESTRUCTIVE HAIL ACROSS EAST CENTRAL MO INTO WEST CENTRAL IL THROUGH AT LEAST 02Z...POTENTIALLY NEAR/JUST NORTH OF THE ST LOUIS METRO AREA. SUPERCELLS WITH TORNADIC HISTORY ARE CURRENTLY MOVING ENE ALONG/JUST NORTH OF I-70 NEAR COLUMBIA MO. THESE STORMS ARE LIKELY TO CONTINUE TO RIDE THE ROUGHLY WEST-EAST ORIENTED BAROCLINIC ZONE ACROSS CENTRAL MO INTO CENTRAL IL AS DELINEATED VIA SURFACE MESOANALYSIS/VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY. THESE STORMS SHOULD REACH THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER AROUND 0030Z. FURTHER WEST...INCREASING STORM COVERAGE IS ANTICIPATED ACROSS SOUTHEAST KS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...LEADING TO A RENEWED THREAT FOR TORNADOES/VERY LARGE HAIL THIS EVENING INTO WESTERN MO. CU FIELD REMAINS AGGRESSIVE ACROSS SOUTHEAST KS AMIDST NEGLIGIBLE CINH PER ADJUSTED RUC SOUNDINGS. ..GUYER.. 03/12/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...PAH...ILX...LSX...DVN...SGF...EAX...TOP...ICT... 39249531 40299349 40479114 40388920 39868850 38828839 38138924 37789185 37349429 37439548 37919569 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun Mar 12 23:53:31 2006 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Sun, 12 Mar 2006 18:53:31 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <20060312235539.AAA95D4C14@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 122354 SWOMCD SPC MCD 122354 OHZ000-MIZ000-INZ000-130130- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0265 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0554 PM CST SUN MAR 12 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...NORTHERN INDIANA/SOUTHWEST LOWER MI/FAR NORTHWEST OH CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 122354Z - 130130Z SEVERE THREAT APPEARS LIKELY TO INCREASE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS ACROSS NORTHERN INDIANA...AND PERHAPS SOUTHWEST LOWER MI AND FAR NORTHWEST OH. WILL MONITOR CONVECTIVE TRENDS...A WATCH MAY BE NEEDED IN THE NEXT ONE TO TWO HOURS. INITIAL PRIMARY HAZARD WOULD BE LARGE HAIL. STRONG/SEVERE STORM IN WILL COUNTY IL AS OF 2345Z SHOULD CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD INTO NORTHERN INDIANA IN VICINITY OF SUBTLE/REMNANT BAROCLINIC ZONE EXTENDING WEST-EAST FROM NORTH CENTRAL IL INTO NORTHERN INDIANA...WITH ADDITIONAL TSTM DEVELOPMENT ALSO ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE EVENING. ALTHOUGH THE STORM HAS SHOW A RECENT WEAKENING TREND AND SURFACE BASED/ELEVATED INSTABILITY IS MARGINAL EARLY THIS EVENING...AN INCREASINGLY STRONG SOUTHWESTLY LOW LEVEL JET NOSING INTO THE AREA WILL SUPPORT AN IMPRESSIVE MOISTURE TRANSPORT REGIME AND AN INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS TONIGHT. ..GUYER.. 03/12/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...IWX...GRR...LOT... 41538707 42358615 42438498 41808458 40938499 40858508 40798576 40818654 41078708 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Mar 13 00:20:05 2006 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Sun, 12 Mar 2006 19:20:05 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <20060313002213.B9373D4C12@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 130021 SWOMCD SPC MCD 130021 ARZ000-MOZ000-OKZ000-130215- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0266 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0621 PM CST SUN MAR 12 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...E CNTRL AND NERN OK THROUGH SRN MO AND NRN AR CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 74... VALID 130021Z - 130215Z THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN THE PROCESS OF INITIATING ALONG THE DRYLINE FROM E CNTRL THROUGH NERN OK. THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO MOVE GENERALLY NEWD DURING THE EVENING. SUPERCELLS WITH VERY LARGE HAIL AND A FEW STRONG TORNADOES WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREATS. SHORT TERM INITIATION FARTHER EAST INTO NRN AR AND SRN MO IS LESS CERTAIN. HOWEVER...STORMS DEVELOPING FATHER W WILL LIKELY SPREAD INTO THIS REGION LATER THIS EVENING. EARLY THIS EVENING A DRYLINE EXTENDS FROM A SURFACE LOW IN NERN KS SWD THROUGH E CNTRL OK AND INTO N CNTRL TX. OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS SHOWS WARM SECTOR E OF THE DRYLINE REMAINS MODERATELY UNSTABLE AND IS ONLY WEAKLY CAPPED. TOWERING CUMULUS CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN VICINITY OF THE DRYLINE FROM JUST E OF OKC INTO SERN KS WHERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALREADY DEVELOPING. A STRONG MID LEVEL JET WILL EJECT NEWD THROUGH KS AND OK THIS EVENING. THE LOW LEVEL JET WILL STRENGTHEN OVER THE SRN PLAINS WITHIN THE EXIT REGION OF THIS FEATURE. THE STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET WILL ENHANCE LIFT AND LOW LEVEL SHEAR ACROSS ERN OK INTO MO AND AR RESULTING IN KINEMATIC FIELDS INCREASINGLY SUPPORTIVE OF STRONG LOW LEVEL MESOCYCLONES AND TORNADOES. ..DIAL.. 03/13/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...SGF...TSA...OUN... 35179707 36649633 36909505 36249427 35199572 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Mar 13 00:27:40 2006 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Sun, 12 Mar 2006 19:27:40 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <20060313002951.641BAD43A2@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 130029 SWOMCD SPC MCD 130028 ILZ000-MOZ000-IAZ000-KSZ000-130200- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0267 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0628 PM CST SUN MAR 12 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...FAR EASTERN KS/MUCH OF MO INTO WESTERN/CENTRAL IL CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 73... VALID 130028Z - 130200Z PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS TORNADO WATCH 73 CONTINUES UNTIL 04Z. AN ENHANCED TORNADO/VERY LARGE HAIL THREAT WILL REMAIN WITH SUPERCELLS MOVING INTO WEST CENTRAL IL OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. OTHER STRONG/SEVERE STORMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS FAR SOUTHEAST KS...WITH THIS ACTIVITY SPREADING INTO WESTERN MO THIS EVENING. IMPRESSIVE SUPERCELLS WITH TORNADIC HISTORY ARE CROSSING THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER FROM EAST CENTRAL MO INTO WEST CENTRAL IL AT THIS TIME...ROUGHLY 45 MILES NNW OF STL. THESE STORMS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO MOVE ENE WITHIN BAROCLINIC ZONE ALONG/NORTH OF WARM FRONT FROM CENTRAL MO INTO CENTRAL IL. NEAR STORM ENVIRONMENT REMAINS FAVORABLE FOR THE POTENTIAL OF SIGNIFICANT TORNADOES AND VERY LARGE HAIL IN ENHANCED BAROCLINICITY/STRONG LOW LEVEL SRH ENVIRONMENT. THESE SUPERCELLS WILL LIKELY REACH THE PITTSFIELD/JACKSONVILLE IL AREAS BY 0100-0130Z...AND POTENTIALLY THE SPRINGFIELD/TAYLORVILLE IL VICINITIES THEREAFTER. FURTHER WEST...SEVERE STORMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ALONG DRYLINE ACROSS FAR EASTERN KS FROM NEAR THE KC METRO AREA SSW TO NEAR COFFEYVILLE KS. OBSERVED 00Z SPRINGFIELD MO RAOB CONTINUES TO SAMPLE A WARM SECTOR ENVIRONMENT THAT IS VERY FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS...WITH VERY LARGE HAIL/TORNADIC POTENTIAL. AS DEVELOPMENT CONTINUES TO OCCUR THIS EVENING AND SPREAD INTO WESTERN MO...THERE IS A POSSIBILITY FOR AN ENHANCED TORNADO THREAT AS STORMS INTERACT WITH MODIFYING WEST-EAST ORIENTED OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ACROSS WEST CENTRAL MO AND/OR WARM FRONT. ..GUYER.. 03/13/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...PAH...ILX...LSX...DVN...SGF...EAX...TOP...ICT... 39659471 40399304 40408963 39208904 38018954 37279289 37139443 37439533 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Mar 13 01:14:29 2006 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Sun, 12 Mar 2006 20:14:29 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <20060313011638.B5211D4249@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 130115 SWOMCD SPC MCD 130115 INZ000-ILZ000-WIZ000-IAZ000-130245- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0268 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0715 PM CST SUN MAR 12 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...EASTERN IA/NORTHERN IL/NORTHWEST INDIANA/SOUTHERN WI CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 75... VALID 130115Z - 130245Z TORNADO WATCH 75 CONTINUES UNTIL 06Z...WITH A MORE WIDESPREAD SEVERE THREAT EXPECTED TO EVOLVE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS ACROSS EASTERN IA/NORTHERN IL INTO SOUTHERN WI/NORTHWEST INDIANA. A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED SOON FROM SOUTH CENTRAL IA INTO FAR NORTHERN IL/SOUTHERN WI. AIRMASS ACROSS THE REGION CONTINUES TO QUICKLY DESTABILIZE NORTH OF DOUBLE SURFACE WARM FRONT/BAROCLINIC ZONES FROM MO INTO CENTRAL/NORTH CENTRAL IL. THIS DESTABILIZATION TREND IS WELL SAMPLED BY 00Z RAOBS FROM DAVENPORT IA/LINCOLN IL...WITH VERY STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR ALREADY IN PLACE. THIS SCENARIO WILL BE FURTHER AIDED REMAINDER OF THE EVENING BY TENDENCY FOR BAROCLINIC ZONE TO SHIFT NORTH ACROSS MO/IL AHEAD OF APPROACHING/DEEPENING SURFACE LOW AND INCREASINGLY STRONG LOW LEVEL JET. IN ADDITION TO THE POSSIBILITY FOR LAGE HAIL ACROSS WW 75...A STEADILY INCREASING THREAT FOR TORNADOES AND DAMAGING WINDS IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...ESPECIALLY FROM SOUTHEAST IA ACROSS NORTHWEST/NORTH CENTRAL IL. PRIMARY THREAT ACROSS NORTHEAST IA/SOUTHERN WI WILL BE LARGE HAIL. ..GUYER.. 03/13/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LOT...ILX...MKX...DVN...ARX...DMX... 42479194 43289008 42938836 41218739 40658818 40558953 40639096 40909268 41559285 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Mar 13 01:59:09 2006 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Sun, 12 Mar 2006 20:59:09 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <20060313020118.931BBD47F7@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 130200 SWOMCD SPC MCD 130200 INZ000-ILZ000-MOZ000-IAZ000-KSZ000-130330- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0269 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0800 PM CST SUN MAR 12 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...EASTERN KS/MUCH OF MO/CENTRAL IL INTO WESTERN INDIANA CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 73... VALID 130200Z - 130330Z TORNADO WATCH 73 CONTINUES UNTIL 04Z. EXTREMELY DANGEROUS SITUATION WITH STRONG TORNADO POTENTIAL QUICKLY INCREASING ACROSS CENTRAL IL NEAR THE SPRINGFIELD/LINCOLN/DECATUR AREAS...AND PERHAPS EVENTUALLY NEAR THE CHAMPAIGN VICINITY. FURTHER WEST...A WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT SEVERE THREAT IS ALSO QUICKLY INCREASING ACROSS A LARGE PORTION OF WESTERN/CENTRAL MO. AN ADDITIONAL AND/OR REPLACEMENT WATCH MAY BE NEEDED IN THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO ACROSS EASTERN IL/WESTERN INDIANA. SUPERCELL CURRENTLY ACROSS WEST CENTRAL IL NEARING SPRINGFIELD IL COULD BREACH THE EASTERN PORTION OF TORNADO WATCH 73 AS EARLY AS 03Z...THUS WILL CLOSELY MONITOR FOR AN ADDITIONAL WATCH ISSUANCE ACROSS EASTERN IL/WESTERN INDIANA. THIS SUPERCELL...WITH A HISTORY OF PRODUCING TORNADOES...WITH CONTINUE TO PROGRESS ENE IN AN ENVIRONMENT THAT REMAINS FAVORABLE FOR SIGNIFICANT TORNADOES. THE 00Z LINCOLN IL SOUNDING IS REPRESENTATIVE OF STRONG LOW LEVEL SHEAR -- 300 M2/S2 0-1 KM SRH -- AND BAROCLINICITY IN PLACE NEAR WARM FRONT ACROSS CENTRAL IL. FURTHER WEST...BROKEN STRING OF SCATTERED SUPERCELLS CONTINUE TO ERUPT FROM NORTH CENTRAL MO INTO EXTREME SW MO AHEAD OF DRYLINE/COLD FRONT. THIS ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD EASTWARD ACROSS WESTERN/CENTRAL MO TONIGHT...WITH POTENTIAL FOR TORNADOES...PERHAPS ENHANCED BY CENTRAL MO WARM FRONT AND/OR OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM PREVIOUS CONVECTION. IN ADDITION...VERY LARGE HAIL WILL REMAIN LIKELY WITH THE STRONGER STORMS...WITH A DAMAGING WIND THREAT POTENTIALLY EVOLVING/INCREASING LATER THIS EVENING. ..GUYER.. 03/13/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...IWX...IND...PAH...LOT...ILX...LSX...DVN...SGF...EAX... 40069380 40589139 40758886 40858636 39498617 38818722 38038953 37429106 37289322 37179410 37259490 38409486 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Mar 13 04:39:35 2006 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Sun, 12 Mar 2006 23:39:35 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <20060313044241.6F689D4961@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 130440 SWOMCD SPC MCD 130439 MIZ000-INZ000-130615- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0272 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1039 PM CST SUN MAR 12 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...NRN IND THROUGH SRN LOWER MI CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 130439Z - 130615Z SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO THREAT IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE OVER PARTS OF NRN IND AND SRN LOWER MI INTO THE OVERNIGHT. WW WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR THIS AREA BY 0530Z. LATE THIS EVENING A WARM FRONT EXTENDS FROM NEAR THE IND...MI BORDER WWD THROUGH NERN IL. ANOTHER WARM FRONT FARTHER S EXTENDS FROM SWRN IND NWWD THROUGH N CNTRL IL. LEAD SUPERCELL CURRENTLY OVER EXTREME ERN IL MOVING INTO IROQUOIS COUNTY HAS A HISTORY OF LONG TRACK DAMAGING TORNADOES...BUT HAS RECENTLY SHOWN A WEAKENING TREND...AT LEAST TEMPORARILY. THIS STORM INITIATED IN SERN KS AROUND 18Z...HAS PERSISTED FOR MORE THAN 10 HOURS AND TRAVELED ALMOST 500 MILES. IT IS CURRENTLY MOVING NEWD AT AROUND 35 KT AND IF IT SURVIVES...WILL MOVE THROUGH NWRN IND WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR AND OUT OF WW 77 AFTER 06Z. THE STORM IS CURRENTLY NEAR THE SRN MOST WARM FRONT. THE ATMOSPHERE IS LESS UNSTABLE WITH NEWD EXTENT INTO SRN LOWER MI. HOWEVER...A STRONG 70+ KT LOW LEVEL JET WILL CONTINUE TO RESULT IN NEWD DESTABILIZATION WITH TIME...AND THE WARM FRONT SHOULD GRADUALLY SHIFT NWD AS THE SURFACE LOW MOVES INTO NRN IL LATER TONIGHT. ..DIAL.. 03/13/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...IWX...GRR...IND...LOT... 40048705 40228736 40708696 41458683 42258620 42228468 40998509 40198614  From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Mar 13 05:50:52 2006 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Mon, 13 Mar 2006 00:50:52 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <20060313055348.41DE9D43A2@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 130553 SWOMCD SPC MCD 130552 ILZ000-IAZ000-WIZ000-130715- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0274 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1152 PM CST SUN MAR 12 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...SERN IA THROUGH EXTREME NWRN IL CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 76... VALID 130552Z - 130715Z THREAT FOR MAINLY LARGE HAIL IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST ANOTHER COUPLE HOURS FROM PARTS OF SERN IA INTO NWRN IL. RADAR TRENDS HAVE SHOWN NEW STORMS DEVELOPING WITHIN WARM ADVECTION ZONE N OF WARM FRONT ACROSS SERN IS. SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE 40S. HOWEVER...SUFFICIENT ELEVATED CAPE AND CLOUD LAYER SHEAR EXISTS TO SUPPORT A THREAT FOR MAINLY LARGE HAIL CONTINUING NEXT FEW HOURS. ..DIAL.. 03/13/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...DVN...ARX...DMX... 42008976 40669247 40989307 42109186 42539051 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Mar 13 06:32:52 2006 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Mon, 13 Mar 2006 01:32:52 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <20060313063548.12154D4961@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 130635 SWOMCD SPC MCD 130635 KYZ000-ILZ000-TNZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-130800- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0275 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1235 AM CST MON MAR 13 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...SERN MO / SRN IL / WRN KY CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 130635Z - 130800Z POTENTIAL FOR SUPERCELLS AND ISOLATED TORNADOES IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP E OF WW/S 77 AND 78 BY 0800Z AND A NEW TORNADO WATCH WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED. AS OF 0625Z...REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY SHOWED A LONG-LIVED TORNADIC SUPERCELL OVER S-CNTRL MO /DOUGLAS AND OZARK COUNTIES/ MOVING 250/45 KTS. EXTRAPOLATION TAKES THIS STORM E OF WW 78 BETWEEN 0730-0800Z. RUC OBJECTIVE FIELDS AND LOCAL VWP DATA INDICATE THAT ENVIRONMENT REMAINS QUITE SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELLS AND TORNADOES DOWNSTREAM OF PRESENT WW/S WITH MLCAPES OF 1000-1500 J/KG...50-60 KTS OF DEEP-LAYER SHEAR AND PERHAPS MOST IMPORTANTLY...VERY STRONG LOW-LEVEL SHEAR /0-1 KM SRH OF 400-500 M2/S2/. DESPITE SOME TENDENCY FOR INCREASING CONVECTIVE INHIBITION ACROSS WARM SECTOR...THIS STRONG SHEAR AND RESULTANT STORM-SCALE NON-HYDROSTATIC VERTICAL PRESSURE GRADIENTS WILL LIKELY BE ABLE TO OVERCOME THIS INCREASING CAP WITH THE TORNADO THREAT CONTINUING THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. ..MEAD.. 03/13/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...PAH...MEG...LSX... 36659104 37579095 38059041 38348996 38598905 37698809 36708820 36398911 36358993 36459050 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Mar 13 13:55:52 2006 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Mon, 13 Mar 2006 08:55:52 -0500 Subject: [MCD] {Spam?} SWOMCD Message-ID: <20060313135848.63563D42D3@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 131358 SWOMCD SPC MCD 131357 MIZ000-WIZ000-MNZ000-131900- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0281 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0757 AM CST MON MAR 13 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...SERN MN...NW WI...WRN U.P. OF MI CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW VALID 131357Z - 131900Z A LARGE BAND OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW WILL LIFT NEWD THIS MORNING FROM SERN MN AND NW WI TOWARDS THE WRN U.P. OF MI. SNOWFALL RATES OF 1 TO 1.5 IN/HR ARE LIKELY WITH LOCAL AREAS UP TO 2 IN/HR IN CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS. MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW HAS BEEN ONGOING THIS MORNING TO THE NW OF A STRENGTHENING SURFACE LOW IN SW WI. THIS LOW WILL TRACK NEWD OVER LK MI BY 21Z. THE MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW BAND HAS BEEN COINCIDENT WITH A STRONG AREA OF 700 TO 650 MB FRONTOGENESIS AND LOW-MID LEVEL ISENTROPIC LIFT. THE 12Z MPX SOUNDING SHOWED A DEFORMATION AXIS AROUND THIS LEVEL WITH NEARLY FULL SATURATION OF THE DENDRITIC LAYER. BOTH 12Z RUC/06Z NAM-WRF MODELS ARE CONSISTENT WITH LIFTING THE STRONG AREA OF FRONTOGENESIS TOWARD WRN U.P. OF MI AND LK SUPERIOR. 09Z SREF GUIDANCE IS ALSO CONSISTENT WITH THE RUC/NAM-WRF MODELS IN PRODUCING THE HEAVIEST QPF THIS MORNING FROM THE SERN TWIN CITIES METRO NEWD INTO WRN U.P. OF MI. THIS HEAVIEST QPF LINES UP REASONABLY WELL WITH THE BAND SEEN ON REGIONAL RADARS...AND WILL RESULT IN 1 TO 1.5 IN/HR SNOWFALL RATES. ELEVATED INSTABILITY WITH MUCAPES FROM 250 TO 500 J/KG HAS ALLOWED CONVECTIVE SNOW/SLEET TO FORM FARTHER EAST ACROSS CNTRL WI. THIS WILL RESULT IN ENHANCED SNOWFALL RATES OF UP TO 2 IN/HR AS THESE CONVECTIVE BANDS LIFT NORTH. ..GRAMS.. 03/13/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MQT...GRB...DLH...ARX...MPX... 44089462 44819422 45439309 46409117 46809017 47388868 46538669 46128690 45688874 44269084 43749153 43559237 43599401 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Mar 13 15:00:22 2006 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Mon, 13 Mar 2006 10:00:22 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <20060313150316.4BF21D5637@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 131502 SWOMCD SPC MCD 131502 TNZ000-KYZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-MSZ000-LAZ000-131600- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0282 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0902 AM CST MON MAR 13 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...SRN AND ERN AR/THE MO BOOTHEEL CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 84... VALID 131502Z - 131600Z SEVERE/TORNADO THREAT HAS DECREASED ACROSS WW. STRONGEST STORMS CONTINUE TO MOVE EWD INTO WW 86 OVER WRN TN. BROKEN LINE OF GENERALLY WEAK CONVECTION CONTINUES MOVING EWD OUT OF WW -- INTO PORTIONS OF WRN TN AND ADJACENT NWRN MS. STRONGEST STORMS STILL WITHIN WW ARE APPROACHING THE MS RIVER W AND NW OF MEM...AND WILL CONTINUE MOVING INTO SRN PORTIONS OF WW 86 OVER THE NEXT HOUR. LATEST OBJECTIVE ANALYSES INDICATE MINIMAL INSTABILITY SWD ACROSS W CENTRAL AND NWRN MS...AND MORNING JAN RAOB REVEALED A SUBSTANTIAL CAP JUST BELOW 700 MB. THOUGH DEEP-LAYER SHEAR REMAINS SUPPORTIVE OF SEVERE/SUPERCELL STORMS...IT APPEARS THAT HEATING/DESTABILIZATION WILL BE REQUIRED BEFORE SEVERE THREAT RE-EVOLVES. THEREFORE...WILL ALLOW WW 84 TO EXPIRE...AND WILL MONITOR DOWNSTREAM DESTABILIZATION THROUGH THIS MORNING. ..GOSS.. 03/13/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...PAH...MEG...JAN...LZK...SHV... 36459018 36508952 36138930 33019106 32939246 34719137 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Mar 13 15:37:14 2006 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Mon, 13 Mar 2006 10:37:14 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <20060313154009.7807ED4C56@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 131539 SWOMCD SPC MCD 131539 MIZ000-OHZ000-INZ000-131645- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0283 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0939 AM CST MON MAR 13 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...SRN LOWER MI/NWRN OH/NRN IN CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 83...85... VALID 131539Z - 131645Z NEW TORNADO WATCH WILL BE ISSUED SHORTLY REPLACING WW 83 WHICH EXPIRES AT THE TOP OF THE HOUR. LIMITED INSTABILITY IS INDICATED ATTM ACROSS NWRN OH ATTM...WHERE EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER EXISTS. HOWEVER...SOME CLEARING/DESTABILIZATION IS OCCURRING IMMEDIATELY AHEAD OF COLD FRONT -- ACROSS NWRN IN AND SWRN LOWER MI...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW STORM REDEVELOPMENT TO OCCUR ALONG/AHEAD OF COLD FRONT. WITH VERY STRONG DEEP-LAYER WIND FIELD ACROSS THE REGION...SEVERE/SUPERCELL STORMS SHOULD QUICKLY EVOLVE. THEREFORE...NEW WW WILL BE ISSUED SHORTLY...COVERING SRN LOWER MI AND SWD INTO NWRN OH/NRN INDIANA. ..GOSS.. 03/13/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...CLE...ILN...DTX...IWX...GRR...IND... 43678471 43508276 42118268 39818375 39638561 40018710 43308534 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Mar 13 18:34:22 2006 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Mon, 13 Mar 2006 13:34:22 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <20060313183717.6C8C9D4A8D@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 131836 SWOMCD SPC MCD 131836 TNZ000-ALZ000-MSZ000-132030- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0284 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1236 PM CST MON MAR 13 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...MIDDLE TN AND NORTHERN/CENTRAL MS INTO NORTHERN AL CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 131836Z - 132030Z THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS ACROSS NORTHERN/CENTRAL MS AND MIDDLE TN INTO NORTHERN AL. PRIMARY HAZARD WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS...WITH ISOLATED TORNADOES POSSIBLE AS WELL. WILL MONITOR FOR A POSSIBLE WATCH IN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO. SURFACE ANALYSIS DEPICTS COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED CONVECTION MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS WESTERN TN AND NORTHWEST MS AT 1830Z. WHILE THESE TSTMS HAVE REMAINED MODEST THUS FAR...SUFFICIENT INSOLATION AND COOLING ALOFT/LOW LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY INSTABILITY FEED WILL LIKELY LEAD TO INCREASING CONVECTIVE VIGOR WITH TIME. SPECIAL 18Z RAOB FROM JACKSON MS DEPICTS CONSIDERABLE COOLING/MOISTENING BETWEEN 700-900 MB SINCE 12Z...ALTHOUGH WEAK CINH/WARM LAYER ABOVE 700 MB REMAINS. WITH INCREASING TSTM COVERAGE THIS AFTERNOON AND DEVELOPMENT OF 500-1000 J/KG MLCAPE...STRONG WARM SECTOR VERTICAL /NAMELY SPEED/ SHEAR OF 50-60 KTS WILL PROMOTE THE POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WINDS. THREAT FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH DISCRETE SUPERCELLS AND/OR EVOLUTION OF LINE-EMBEDDED LEWPS...ALTHOUGH LOW LEVEL SHEAR WILL TEND TO WEAKEN WITH TIME. ..GUYER.. 03/13/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MRX...OHX...BMX...HUN...MEG...JAN... 36328791 36538642 36408546 35568527 32648875 32519008 32889053 33909009 34818939 35578871 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Mar 13 20:11:39 2006 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Mon, 13 Mar 2006 15:11:39 -0500 Subject: [MCD] {Spam?} SWOMCD Message-ID: <20060313201434.9C05FD4A7D@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 132014 SWOMCD SPC MCD 132013 NYZ000-PAZ000-MDZ000-WVZ000-OHZ000-KYZ000-INZ000-TNZ000-132145- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0285 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0213 PM CST MON MAR 13 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...SERN INDIANA/CENTRAL KY/OH/ PA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 88... VALID 132013Z - 132145Z THUNDERSTORMS/SEVERE THREAT MAY INCREASE AHEAD OF FRONT -- PARTICULARLY ACROSS CENTRAL KY AND INTO WRN OH -- OVER THE NEXT 1 TO 2 HOURS. THOUGH INITIAL CONVECTION CLUSTER NOW MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL KY/ERN OH/WRN PA HAS LEFT A RELATIVELY STABLE AIRMASS IN ITS WAKE...SURFACE AND OBJECTIVE ANALYSES INDICATE AN AXIS OF MOISTENING/DESTABILIZATION SPREADING NWD ACROSS KY INTO WRN OH BEHIND THE INITIAL CONVECTION/AHEAD OF COLD FRONT. THIS COINCIDES WITH CONVECTIVE INCREASE INDICATED BY LATEST RADAR IMAGERY FROM WRN TN NNEWD TO THE OH RIVER. THIS TREND SHOULD CONTINUE...WITH A CORRESPONDING INCREASE IN SEVERE THREAT GIVEN STRONG DEEP-LAYER WIND FIELD. RELATIVELY UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW JUST OFF THE SURFACE SUGGESTS THAT DAMAGING WINDS SHOULD BE THE PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT. E OF WATCH -- INTO CENTRAL AND ERN PA...LESS CLOUDINESS HAS ALLOWED SOME HEATING/DESTABILIZATION TO OCCUR...WITH TEMPERATURES NOW IN THE LOW TO MID 70S AND 500 TO 1000 J/KG SURFACE-BASED CAPE NOW INDICATED. SEVERE THREAT APPEARS TO BE INCREASING ALONG LEADING EDGE OF THE INITIAL CONVECTIVE CLUSTER AS IT MOVES INTO CENTRAL PA...WHICH MAY REQUIRE WW ISSUANCE E OF WW 88. ..GOSS.. 03/13/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...PHI...BGM...BUF...CTP...LWX...PBZ...RLX...CLE...JKL...ILN...LMK...IWX...OHX...IND...PAH... 36618726 39858468 42028262 41937953 42387712 42037518 39877682 39457973 38658140 36728465 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Mar 13 20:17:23 2006 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Mon, 13 Mar 2006 15:17:23 -0500 Subject: [MCD] {Spam?} SWOMCD Message-ID: <20060313202019.1E8BDD4A73@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 132019 SWOMCD SPC MCD 132019 MIZ000-OHZ000-132115- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0286 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0219 PM CST MON MAR 13 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...FAR ERN LOWER MI/NWRN OH CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 87... VALID 132019Z - 132115Z NARROW AXIS OF SEVERE/TORNADO THREAT WILL PERSIST FOR THE NEXT HOUR OR SO ACROSS LOWER MI...AND CONTINUE MOVING EWD INTO NWRN PORTIONS OF WW 88 ACROSS OH. THUNDERSTORMS HAVE INCREASED AHEAD OF COLD FRONT SWEEPING EWD ACROSS SERN LOWER MI/FAR NWRN OH ATTM....PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE THUMB REGION. THOUGH STORMS SHOULD MOVE ACROSS LK HURON/INTO SRN ONTARIO OVER THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS...THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER -- INCLUDING ISOLATED TORNADOES -- HAS INCREASED ACROSS THIS NARROW CORRIDOR. FURTHER S...CONVECTION REMAINS WEAKER...BUT SHOULD INCREASE AS IT MOVES ACROSS NWRN OH/INTO WW 88 OVER THE NEXT 1 TO 2 HOURS. ..GOSS.. 03/13/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...CLE...DTX...IWX... 43948310 43708270 42748271 40998350 40878471 42878344 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Mar 13 21:31:54 2006 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Mon, 13 Mar 2006 16:31:54 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <20060313213451.D43B1D4A5C@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 132132 SWOMCD SPC MCD 132132 ALZ000-MSZ000-LAZ000-132300- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0287 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0332 PM CST MON MAR 13 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTHERN MS/EASTERN LA INTO SOUTHWEST AL CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 132132Z - 132300Z ISOLATED SEVERE POTENTIAL MAY INCREASE ACROSS SOUTHERN MS/EASTERN LA INTO SOUTHWEST AL IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. A WATCH IS NOT CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED SOUTH OF TORNADO WATCH 89...HOWEVER WILL MONITOR CONVECTIVE TRENDS. SOUTH OF TORNADO WATCH 89 ACROSS MS/AL...INCREASING AREAL TSTM COVERAGE IS ANTICIPATED REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON ACROSS SOUTHERN MS/EASTERN LA INTO SOUTHWEST AL AHEAD OF SYNOPTIC COLD FRONT...WITH POSSIBILITY FOR ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS. ALTHOUGH A SUFFICIENTLY FAVORABLE COMBINATION OF INSTABILITY/VERTICAL SHEAR EXISTS... CONFIDENCE/LIKLIHOOD OF SEVERE POTENTIAL DIMINISHES WITH SOUTHWARD EXTENT...LARGELY OWING TO MILDER MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES/WEAKER MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES VIA SOUTH PERIPHERY OF MID/UPPER JET. GIVEN EXPECTED ISOLATED/MARGINAL NATURE OF THREAT...A WATCH IS NOT CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED...BUT TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED. ..GUYER.. 03/13/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...BMX...MOB...JAN...LIX... 32199003 32448840 32288740 32048706 31798714 30928796 30268952 30359116 31579086  From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Mar 13 21:59:00 2006 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Mon, 13 Mar 2006 16:59:00 -0500 Subject: [MCD] {Spam?} SWOMCD Message-ID: <20060313220153.3C3C8D4A5C@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 132200 SWOMCD SPC MCD 132159 TNZ000-GAZ000-ALZ000-MSZ000-132330- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0288 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0359 PM CST MON MAR 13 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...NORTHERN/EASTERN MS AND EASTERN/MIDDLE TN INTO NORTHERN/WESTERN AL CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 89... VALID 132159Z - 132330Z TORNADO WATCH 89 CONTINUES UNTIL 02Z ACROSS NORTHERN/EASTERN MS AND MIDDLE TN INTO NORTHERN/WESTERN AL. POTENTIAL REMAINS FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS...AND PERHAPS LARGE HAIL. SEVERAL STORMS HAVE EXHIBITED PERSISTENT ROTATION FROM NORTHEAST MS INTO MIDDLE TN OVER THE PAST HOUR OR SO...INCLUDING TORNADO REPORTS WITH SUPERCELL THAT MOVED THROUGH WEBSTER COUNTY MS. MESOANALYSIS SUPPORTED BY RUC SOUNDINGS/18Z JACKSON RAOB INDICATIVE OF INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS...WITH MLCAPE VALUES OF 500-800 J/KG NOW EXTENDING NORTHEASTWARD INTO MIDDLE TN. WITH MODEST INSTABILITY/LARGELY UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW REGIME...SPEED SHEAR IN THE LOWEST 1-2 KM HAS PROVED SUFFICIENT FOR LOW LEVEL MESOCYCLONES THIS AFTERNOON. REGIONAL WSR-88D VWPS AND OKOLONA MS PROFILER SUGGEST 150-200 M2/S2 0-1 KM SRH...FAVORABLE FOR CONTINUED TORNADO POTENTIAL VIA DISTINCT SUPERCELLS AND/OR DEVELOPING LEWPS. WILL MONITOR FOR AN ADDITIONAL WATCH EASTWARD ACROSS EASTERN TN. ..GUYER.. 03/13/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MRX...FFC...OHX...BMX...HUN...MEG...JAN... 35708809 36498713 36538476 36418414 35688430 34488582 33208677 32858752 32848838 32868909 33078939 33688953 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Mar 13 23:39:18 2006 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Mon, 13 Mar 2006 18:39:18 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <20060313234213.82033D47F7@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 132341 SWOMCD SPC MCD 132341 TNZ000-NCZ000-GAZ000-ALZ000-MSZ000-140045- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0289 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0541 PM CST MON MAR 13 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...NORTHEAST MS/NORTHERN AL/NORTHWEST GA AND MIDDLE/EASTERN TN CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 89...90... VALID 132341Z - 140045Z TORNADO WATCH 89 CONTINUES UNTIL 02Z ACROSS MIDDLE TN/EASTERN MS INTO NORTHERN/WESTERN AL...TORNADO WATCH 90 CONTINUES UNTIL 04Z ACROSS EASTERN TN. AN ADDITIONAL WATCH ISSUANCE ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF NORTHERN AL MAY BE NEEDED BY 00Z. THREAT FOR TORNADOES CONTINUES THROUGH EARLY EVENING...IN ADDITION TO DAMAGING WINDS AND PERHAPS LARGE HAIL. LOW/MID LEVEL MESOCYCLONES HAVE BEEN COMMON OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS ACROSS NORTHEAST MS/NORTHWEST AL INTO MIDDLE TN VIA VOLUMETRIC RADAR DATA...WITH AS MANY AS 10 REPORTS OF TORNADO AND/OR WIND DAMAGE AS OF 2330Z. SIMILAR SCENARIO SHOULD CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...INTO EASTERN TN/WW 90...AND NORTHEAST AL/NORTHWEST GA WHERE AN ADDITIONAL TORNADO WATCH COULD BE NEEDED SOON. EVEN WITH MODEST INSTABILITY...LOW LEVEL ROTATION/TORNADOES AND WIND DAMAGE WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE WITH AREA WSR-88D VWPS INDICATIVE OF 150-200 MS/S2 OR GREATER 0-1 KM SRH...MAXIMIZED ACROSS MIDDLE/EASTERN TN. ..GUYER.. 03/13/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MRX...FFC...OHX...BMX...HUN...MEG...JAN... 35138813 36448673 36448452 36228399 35078425 34248477 33128597 32758743 32698827 32758936 33058956 33428922 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Mar 14 00:08:52 2006 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Mon, 13 Mar 2006 19:08:52 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <20060314001147.6647CD48EB@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 140010 SWOMCD SPC MCD 140009 PAZ000-WVZ000-OHZ000-KYZ000-140145- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0290 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0609 PM CST MON MAR 13 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL AND ERN KY THROUGH CNTRL AND ERN OH AND NWRN PA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 88... VALID 140009Z - 140145Z SEVERE THREAT IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST ACROSS REMAINING PORTIONS OF WW 88 NEXT FEW HOURS. A MORE LIMITED SEVERE THREAT EXISTS E OF WW 88. A WW E OF THE CURRENT WATCH WILL PROBABLY NOT BE NEEDED UNLESS UNEXPECTED INTENSIFICATION OCCURS. EARLY THIS EVENING A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM NWRN OH SWWD THROUGH WRN KY...WRN TN AND THE LOWER MS VALLEY. THE WARM SECTOR E OF THIS BOUNDARY IS ONLY MARGINALLY UNSTABLE WITH MODEST LAPSE RATES AND AN AXIS OF MUCAPE AOB 500 J/KG. STORMS ARE CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH THE AXIS OF BEST INSTABILITY ACROSS KY INTO OH. INSTABILITY IS MORE LIMITED WITH EWD EXTENT INTO PA AND WV...WHERE TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS ARE LOWER. STRONG KINEMATIC FIELDS INCLUDING A STRONG SWLY LOW LEVEL JET WILL PERSIST THIS EVENING...MAINTAINING A THREAT FOR SOME ORGANIZED STORM STRUCTURES INCLUDING SUPERCELLS AND LINES. ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND AND PERHAPS A TORNADO OR TWO WILL REMAIN THE PRIMARY THREATS NEXT FEW HOURS. ..DIAL.. 03/14/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...PBZ...RLX...CLE...JKL...ILN...LMK... 36718472 37218600 41368191 41437976 37788214 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Mar 14 01:25:23 2006 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Mon, 13 Mar 2006 20:25:23 -0500 Subject: [MCD] {Spam?} SWOMCD Message-ID: <20060314012817.12958D4A5C@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 140127 SWOMCD SPC MCD 140127 TNZ000-NCZ000-GAZ000-ALZ000-MSZ000-140300- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0291 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0727 PM CST MON MAR 13 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...EASTERN MS/NORTHERN AL/NORTHWEST GA AND MIDDLE/EASTERN TN CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 89...90...91... VALID 140127Z - 140300Z TORNADO WATCH 89 IS SCHEDULED TO EXPIRE AT 02Z ACROSS NORTHEAST MS/NORTHWEST AL/MIDDLE TN...CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT AN ADDITIONAL WATCH ISSUANCE WILL NOT BE NECESSARY. TORNADO WATCH 90 CONTINUES UNTIL 04Z ACROSS EASTERN TN. TORNADO WATCH 91 CONTINUES UNTIL 05Z ACROSS NORTHEAST AL/NORTHWEST GA. IT APPEARS THERE WILL BE SOME POTENTIAL FOR A LINGERING SEVERE THREAT PAST THE 02Z SCHEDULED EXPIRATION OF TORNADO WATCH 89...NAMELY FROM EASTERN CENTRAL MS INTO WESTERN AL. BOUNDARY LAYER COOLING WILL GRADUALLY LEAD TO A DIMINISHING SEVERE THREAT THIS EVENING...BUT AMPLE SOUTHWESTLY LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY FEED PER 00Z JAN/LIX RAOBS SHOULD MAINTAIN POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST ISOLATED SEVERE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. FURTHER EAST ACROSS TORNADO WATCHES 90/91...LOW LEVEL FLOW FIELDS IN PRESENCE OF MODEST INSTABILITY WILL CONTINUE THE THREAT FOR ISOLD TORNADOES AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WITH STORMS MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS EASTERN TN/NORTHEAST AL INTO NORTHWEST GA. STORMS ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL/NORTHEAST AL HAVE EXHIBITED AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF LOW LEVEL ROTATION WITH HISTORY OF ISOLATED TORNADOES/WIND DAMAGE. ..GUYER.. 03/14/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MRX...FFC...OHX...BMX...HUN...MOB...MEG...JAN... 35058760 36388605 36488466 36218403 35078425 34248477 32928582 32538648 32168735 32058880 33148872 33588850 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Mar 14 03:41:58 2006 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Mon, 13 Mar 2006 22:41:58 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <20060314034453.DFA13D4A5C@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 140344 SWOMCD SPC MCD 140343 TNZ000-NCZ000-GAZ000-ALZ000-140515- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0292 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0943 PM CST MON MAR 13 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN TN...NWRN GA THROUGH NERN AND CNTRL AL CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 90...91... VALID 140343Z - 140515Z LIMITED SEVERE THREAT MAY CONTINUE FROM ERN TN..INTO NWRN GA AND PARTS OF CNTRL AL NEXT COUPLE HOURS OR SO. HOWEVER...EXPECT TREND TO BE FOR THREAT TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH THROUGH 05Z AND WW 90 AND 91 WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE. THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE IN PRE-FRONTAL WARM SECTOR FROM ERN TN SWWD THROUGH CNTRL AL. ACTIVITY IS CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH THE NARROW AXIS OF MARGINAL INSTABILITY. THOUGH BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW AND VERTICAL SHEAR REMAIN STRONG...TRENDS SHOULD BE FOR THE LOW LEVEL FLOW TO GRADUALLY VEER AS A DEEP SURFACE LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES LIFTS NEWD INTO SERN CANADA. LATEST SURFACE AND VWP DATA ALREADY SHOW THE LOW LEVEL FLOW STARTING TO VEER IN GA DOWNSTREAM FROM THE ONGOING STORMS. A LIMITED THREAT FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES AND DAMAGING WIND MAY PERSIST A WHILE LONGER. HOWEVER...STORMS ARE EXPECTED CONTINUE AN OVERALL WEAKENING TREND AS THEY MOVE TOWARD A MORE STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER. ..DIAL.. 03/14/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MRX...FFC...OHX...BMX...HUN... 33058717 35338557 35818483 36318329 32968614 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Mar 14 19:26:46 2006 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Tue, 14 Mar 2006 14:26:46 -0500 Subject: [MCD] {Spam?} SWOMCD Message-ID: <20060314192939.C1B2AD4A7D@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 141929 SWOMCD SPC MCD 141928 CAZ000-142100- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0293 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0128 PM CST TUE MAR 14 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...SACRAMENTO VALLEY OF CENTRAL/NRN CA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 141928Z - 142100Z A FEW STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY EVENING...POSING A LOCAL/MARGINAL SEVERE THREAT. RECENT LIGHTNING STRIKES INDICATE THAT MARGINAL AIRMASS DESTABILIZATION HAS OCCURRED ACROSS THE CENTRAL/NRN SACRAMENTO VALLEY...CONFIRMING LATEST RUC SOUNDINGS SHOWING 200-400 J/KG MOST-UNSTABLE CAPE EVOLVING AS UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES THE COAST. WITH 35 TO 40 KT FLOW AT 600 MB -- NEAR THE MIDDLE OF THE UNSTABLE LAYER -- ABOVE LOW-LEVEL VEERING WITH HEIGHT...SHEAR SUPPORTIVE OF A FEW STRONGER/ROTATING UPDRAFTS IS INDICATED. THEREFORE...EXPECT MARGINALLY-SEVERE HAIL WITH STRONGEST CELLS...AND PERHAPS A FUNNEL CLOUD OR BRIEF/WEAK TORNADO TOUCHDOWN. GIVEN STRONGLY DIURNAL NATURE OF CONVECTIVE THREAT...EXPECT ANY SEVERE POTENTIAL TO WANE AFTER SUNSET. ..GOSS.. 03/14/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...HNX...STO...MTR... 40382270 39022226 38102210 37652146 36382054 36511979 37091954 38052053 39562132 40352201 40772225 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat Mar 18 11:24:10 2006 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Sat, 18 Mar 2006 06:24:10 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <20060318112710.8D003D45E0@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 181126 SWOMCD SPC MCD 181126 TXZ000-181200- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0302 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0526 AM CST SAT MAR 18 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF SW AND WEST CENTRAL TX CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 181126Z - 181200Z WW MAY BE NEEDED...IF STORM COVERAGE BEGINS TO INCREASE THE NEXT FEW HOURS. HAIL EXPECTED TO BE THE PRIMARY THREAT WITH STORMS DEVELOPING ACROSS SW/W INTO PARTS OF CENTRAL TX. EARLY MORNING SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATED A BOUNDARY EXTENDING WWD FROM SOUTH CENTRAL TX TO NEAR DRT AND THEN INTO NRN CHIHUAHUA MEXICO WEST OF THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY. WSR-88D VAD DATA AT DRT INDICATED SSELY LLJ HAD STRENGTHENED TO NEAR 55 KT DURING THE LAST HOUR TRANSPORTING VERY MOIST AIR MASS NWD ATOP THE COOLER LOW-LEVEL AIR MASS LOCATED NORTH OF THE SURFACE BOUNDARY. STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ALREADY IN PLACE COMBINED WITH INCREASING LOW-LEVEL WARM AIR AND MOISTURE ADVECTION HAS AIDED IN A FEW INTENSIFYING STORMS FROM PECOS COUNTY ENEWD TO BROWN COUNTY. QUESTIONS REMAIN AS TO HOW WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE WILL BE THIS MORNING. MID-UPPER LEVEL RIDGING EVIDENT ACROSS THIS REGION PER WATER VAPOR IMAGERY WOULD SUGGEST A FEW STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITHIN WAA REGIME AS HAS ALREADY BEEN INDICATED PER REGIONAL RADARS. SHORT TERM MODELS INDICATE LLJ BEING STRONGEST THROUGH 12Z THEN WEAKENING AS IT VEERS TO SSWLY. THIS WOULD SUGGEST THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS SHOULD REMAIN LIMITED. DESPITE THESE FACTORS... MODERATE ELEVATED INSTABILITY/VERY STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND STRONG EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR VALUES WILL SUPPORT HAIL WITH THE STRONGEST...THOUGH LIKELY REMAINING ISOLATED...STORMS. ..PETERS.. 03/18/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...FWD...EWX...SJT...LUB...MAF... 30480292 31400302 32850252 33060061 32489936 31479879 30509921 30010052 30210233 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat Mar 18 12:29:52 2006 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Sat, 18 Mar 2006 07:29:52 -0500 Subject: [MCD] {Spam?} SWOMCD Message-ID: <20060318123252.55F5ED4702@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 181232 SWOMCD SPC MCD 181231 TXZ000-OKZ000-181300- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0303 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0631 AM CST SAT MAR 18 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF WEST TX/FAR SW OK CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 181231Z - 181300Z WW BEING CONSIDERED FOR PARTS OF WEST TX INTO FAR SW OK. DESPITE APPARENT RIDGING ACROSS THE SRN HIGH PLAINS INTO WRN OK ATTM...RECENT INCREASE IN TSTM COVERAGE INTO SRN PARTS OF THE TX PANHANDLE AND GREATER INSTABILITY NOTED ON 12Z AMA/MAF SOUNDINGS THAN PER EARLIER SHORT TERM MODELS SUGGEST POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL STORM DEVELOPMENT...SOME STRONG TO SEVERE...IS INCREASING. MUCAPE 1000-1500 J/KG AND EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR VALUES ARE SUFFICIENT FOR ORGANIZED STORMS WITH HAIL BEING THE PRIMARY THREAT...GIVEN ELEVATED NATURE OF ACTIVITY AND VERY STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES /8+ C/KM/. ..PETERS.. 03/18/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...SJT...LUB...AMA...MAF... 31350188 33210214 34660202 35020125 35169992 34629925 32699896 31569907 31240043 31210160 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat Mar 18 15:25:08 2006 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Sat, 18 Mar 2006 10:25:08 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <20060318152832.00F15D4703@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 181526 SWOMCD SPC MCD 181526 TXZ000-OKZ000-181800- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0304 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0926 AM CST SAT MAR 18 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...NWRN TX/SWRN OK CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 181526Z - 181800Z POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL APPEARS TO BE INCREASING ACROSS PORTIONS OF NWRN TX AND SWRN OK THIS MORNING. A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MAY BE NEEDED ACROSS THE REGION IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. DEEP CONVECTION HAS BEEN INCREASING ACROSS THE TX PANHANDLE AND SOUTH OF THE RED RIVER THIS MORNING WITHIN ZONE OF STRONG SLOPED/ISENTROPIC ASCENT. A LARGE MCS WAS ALSO EVIDENT IN RADAR AND SATELLITE IMAGERY ACROSS TAYLOR...CALLAHAN...COMANCHE...AND EASTLAND COUNTIES IN NCNTRL TX. THIS COMPLEX OF STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE TOWARD THE WRN PORTIONS OF THE DFW METROPLEX BEFORE NOON CST. UNLIKE YESTERDAY...WHEN ELEVATED STORMS WEAKENED THROUGH THE LATE MORNING AS LLJ DIMINISHED...ACTIVITY TODAY IS EXPECTED TO BE SUSTAINED BY MORE FAVORABLE LARGE SCALE FORCING. LATEST ENSEMBLE MEAN FCST INDICATES THAT MASS INFLOW ON MODEST LLJ WILL PERSIST FROM NWRN TX TO THE RED RIVER THROUGH THE DAY AS MID LEVEL FLOW AND UPPER DIFFLUENCE STRENGTHEN ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS. MORNING SOUNDINGS FROM AMA AND MAF DISPLAYED STEEP 3-6KM LAPSE RATES OF 7.6C IN ELEVATED MIXED LAYER ALONG WITH EFFECTIVE SHEAR IN EXCESS OF 60KT. GIVEN THE LIKELIHOOD OF INCREASING CONVECTION WITHIN STRENGTHENING WARM CONVEYOR...COUPLED WITH UPSTREAM LAPSE RATES AND SHEAR...THE CHANCE FOR ELEVATED AND EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS PRODUCING SEVERE HAIL SHOULD INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY. THIS POTENTIAL WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED AND A WATCH MAY BE NEEDED FOR PARTS OF THE AREA. ..CARBIN.. 03/18/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...SJT...LUB...AMA...MAF... 31940044 32810148 34400240 34980179 35020021 34669891 33899675 32489615 31709702 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat Mar 18 19:28:05 2006 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Sat, 18 Mar 2006 14:28:05 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <20060318193104.D1786D4702@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 181930 SWOMCD SPC MCD 181930 TXZ000-OKZ000-182130- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0305 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0130 PM CST SAT MAR 18 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...NWRN AND NCNTRL TX CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 93... VALID 181930Z - 182130Z SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL REMAIN A THREAT FROM THE SRN TX PANHANDLE/SOUTH PLAINS EAST TO THE RED RIVER VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON. OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS ACROSS NCNTRL TX...A PARTICULARLY PERSISTENT STORM HAS TRACKED FROM HILL COUNTY EWD TO NAVARRO COUNTY AND WILL CONTINUE EAST ACROSS THE ERN PORTIONS OF WW 93. THIS CELL IS PART OF A LARGER COMPLEX OF DEEP CONVECTION THAT WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE HEAVY RAIN AND SOME HAIL ACROSS NERN TX THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. FARTHER UPSTREAM...GENERALLY WEAK STORM UPDRAFTS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP WITHIN ELEVATED FRONTAL ZONE WELL NORTH AND REMOVED FROM CAPPED SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY SITUATED FROM THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY NWD ACROSS THE PECOS VALLEY. LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY WAS DEPICTING EXTENSIVE BAROCLINIC LEAF PATTERN EVOLVING AHEAD OF VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE LOWER CO RIVER VALLEY. BELT OF STRENGTHENING SWLY MID LEVEL FLOW ON THE SERN FLANK OF THE LARGE SCALE TROUGH AXIS WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD ACROSS TX/OK THROUGH THE EVENING AND SHOULD ENHANCE DEEP LAYER ASCENT AND SHEAR ATOP PERSISTENT WARM/MOIST CONVEYOR BELT. GIVEN THE LARGE SCALE FORCING...STORMS SHOULD CONTINUE TO DEVELOP WITHIN THE LOW THROUGH MID LEVEL FRONTAL ZONE WHERE INSTABILITY AND SHEAR WILL REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL. ..CARBIN.. 03/18/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...SJT...LUB...MAF... 31439588 32570216 34740252 33629583 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat Mar 18 23:12:46 2006 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Sat, 18 Mar 2006 18:12:46 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <20060318231544.9E023D4AA0@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 182314 SWOMCD SPC MCD 182313 TXZ000-NMZ000-190115- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0306 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0513 PM CST SAT MAR 18 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS W TX AND EXTREME SERN NM CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 182313Z - 190115Z ADDITIONAL TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND INTENSIFY ACROSS AREA FROM PECOS RIVER EWD AND ENEWD ACROSS W-CENTRAL TX THROUGH EARLY EVENING...LARGE HAIL BEING PRIMARY THREAT. AREA IS BEING MONITORED FOR POSSIBLE WW. REFLECTIVITY ANIMATIONS AND LTG DATA SHOW BAND OF MIDLEVEL TSTMS MOVING ENEWD 25-30 KT BETWEEN CNM-MRF...W OF FRONT AND DRYLINE. THIS REPRESENTS ZONE OF ENHANCED LARGE SCALE UVV EJECTING NEWD FROM BASE OF SYNOPTIC TROUGH. SFC MESOANALYSIS SHOWS QUASISTATIONARY FRONTAL ZONE FROM NRN PORTIONS SAT AREA WNWWD...GENERALLY ALONG I-10 TO WITHIN ABOUT 10 S FST...THEN NWWD TOWARD GDP AREA. LITTLE MOVEMENT OF THIS BOUNDARY AT SFC IS EXPECTED NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...THOUGH ITS SLOPE ABOVE SFC MAY BECOME SLIGHTLY MORE SHALLOW FARTHER N OVER PERMIAN BASIN/CONCHO VALLEY REGION. WEAK MESOLOW IS EVIDENT INVOF FST. AS MID/UPPER LEVEL PERTURBATION MOVES INTO AREA...EXPECT CONVECTION TO ENCOUNTER MORE FAVORABLE LOW LEVEL WAA...RICHER MOISTURE AND STRONGER STORM-RELATIVE INFLOW ATOP FRONTAL LAYER. ELEVATED MUCAPES WILL INCREASE WITH EWD EXTENT FROM MAF THROUGH SJT AREAS...REACHING AROUND 1000 J/KG. MODIFIED RUC SOUNDINGS AND VWP/PROFILER WINDS SUGGEST 50-60 KT DEEP-LAYER/EFFECTIVE SHEAR ROOTED AROUND 850 MB. ..EDWARDS.. 03/18/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...SJT...LUB...MAF... 30700291 30930358 31720396 32040385 32470378 33030357 33270211 33030074 32460017 31769998 31030017 30320106 30520252 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun Mar 19 02:02:21 2006 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Sat, 18 Mar 2006 21:02:21 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <20060319020518.C06B7D4A9D@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 190204 SWOMCD SPC MCD 190204 SDZ000-NEZ000-190600- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0307 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0804 PM CST SAT MAR 18 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...WRN SD/WRN AND CNTRL NEB CONCERNING...PRECIPITATION TRENDS...WINTER PRECIPITATION VALID 190204Z - 190600Z ...WINTER PRECIPITATION WILL BEGIN AS A MIX OF FZRA/FZDZ ACROSS WRN SD AND PORTIONS OF WRN AND CNTRL NEB BEFORE CHANGING TO SNOW LATER TONIGHT... LATEST WV IMAGERY SHOWS STRONG UPPER LOW MOVING INTO NRN AZ/SRN UT THIS EVENING. INCREASING PVA AHEAD OF THE UPPER LOW WILL FOCUS A BROAD AREA OF LARGE SCALE ASCENT ACROSS THE NRN HIGH PLAINS WHERE HEAVY SNOW WILL DEVELOP LATER TONIGHT. MEANWHILE...MAINLY LIGHT SNOW CONTINUES ACROSS PORTIONS OF ND AND ERN SD ALONG A WEAK DEFORMATION BAND NEAR 700MB. WEST OF THIS ZONE...LIGHT FREEZING RAIN WAS FALLING. 00Z SOUNDING AT RAPID CITY INDICATED A SATURATED SUB-FREEZING LAYER FROM THE SFC TO AROUND 750MB...WITH A DRY LAYER ABOVE. TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW LAYERS ARE NOT COLD ENOUGH /I.E. BELOW -10C/ FOR THE AIRMASS TO CONTAIN ICE CRYSTALS NECESSARY FOR SNOW...SO A PERIOD OF FZRA/FZDZ WILL CONTINUE UNTIL THE COLUMN COMPLETELY SATURATES AND COOLS FURTHER. STRONG LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION IS OCCURRING ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA AHEAD OF APPROACHING UPPER SYSTEM. A LARGE AREA OF LOW CLOUDS ACROSS NEB/SD EARLIER IN THE DAY /PARTIALLY IN RESPONSE TO THE UPSLOPE FLOW/ RESTRICTED DIURNAL HEATING...SO HIGH TEMPS WERE ONLY IN THE LOW/MID 30S ACROSS SD/NEB...AND THIS WILL MAKE A DIFFERENCE WITH REGARD TO RAIN OR FREEZING RAIN IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. SFC WET BULB TEMPS ARE IN THE MID 20S TO LOW 30S ACROSS WRN SD...SO MAIN PTYPE WILL BE FZRA/FZDZ. AMOUNTS WILL NOT BE HEAVY...BUT FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST FREEZING PCPN MAY PERSIST FOR 2-4 HOURS BEFORE CHANGING TO SNOW. ACROSS WRN NEB...MAIN PTYPE WILL BE RAIN...EXCEPT IN AREAS WHERE TEMPS FALL TO 32F OR BELOW. HEAVIER PCPN WILL BEGIN IN EARNEST AFTER 05-06Z. ..TAYLOR.. 03/19/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...FSD...ABR...LBF...UNR...CYS... 40980133 41110385 42850401 45880385 45900123 44049947 42309865 41159989 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun Mar 19 02:56:15 2006 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Sat, 18 Mar 2006 21:56:15 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <20060319025913.2FB1FD4645@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 190258 SWOMCD SPC MCD 190258 TXZ000-190500- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0308 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0858 PM CST SAT MAR 18 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS W TX CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 94... VALID 190258Z - 190500Z SFC MESOANALYSIS AS OF 245Z SHOWS QUASISTATIONARY FRONT INTERSECTING OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM INITIAL CONVECTION ABOUT 35 ESE FST...NEAR I-10. FRONT EXTENDS ESEWD ACROSS EDWARDS/CROCKETT COUNTIES TOWARD SAT AREA. CLUSTERS OF TSTMS BETWEEN SJT-DRT WILL MOVE NEWD TOWARD WRN/SRN PORTIONS TX HILL COUNTRY WITH POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED DAMAGING GUSTS. ALTHOUGH BOUNDARY LAYER S OF FRONT HAS BEGUN TO COOL DIABATICALLY...MODIFIED DRT RAOB AND RUC SOUNDINGS INDICATE PARCELS ROOTED VERY NEAR SFC...WITH MUCAPE AROUND 1500 J/KG...MINIMAL DOWNWARD INHIBITION FOR OUTFLOW GUSTS. PRESENCE OF AS MUCH AS 75 KT DEEP LAYER SHEAR SUPPORTS POTENTIAL FOR BOTH SUPERCELLS AND BOWS. ANY RELATIVELY DISCRETE/ROTATING STORMS -- SUCH AS APPARENT SUPERCELL IN MIDDLE OF VAL VERDE COUNTY AS OF 255Z -- MAY PRODUCE VERY LARGE/DAMAGING HAIL...AND POTENTIAL FOR A TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT INVOF FRONT. INITIAL BAND OF TSTMS CONTINUES MOVING ENEWD APPROXIMATELY 35 KT AWAY FROM MAF AREA...AFTER PRODUCING SUBSEVERE MEASURED GUSTS THERE. SEVERE WIND POTENTIAL WILL REMAIN MINIMAL WITH THIS ACTIVITY AS IT MOVES OVER PRONOUNCED STATIC STABILITY IN BOUNDARY LAYER N OF SFC FRONT. HOWEVER...OCCASIONAL SUBSEVERE/MARGINALLY DAMAGING GUSTS CANNOT BE RULED OUT...AND HAIL REMAINS POSSIBLE FROM STRONGEST EMBEDDED CELLS. VERTICAL SHEAR REMAINS FAVORABLE FARTHER NE ACROSS ABI/SEP REGION...THOUGH WEAKER AND MORE ELEVATED BUOYANCY MAY LIMIT ORGANIZATION OF CONVECTION. MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL MAY BE POSSIBLE E OF WW ACROSS THIS REGION. ..EDWARDS.. 03/19/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...EWX...SJT...LUB...MAF... 29790203 30350247 30910241 31870206 32740194 33080146 33270023 33419966 33159920 32879905 32089882 31509886 30379873 29749920 29350089 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun Mar 19 04:16:17 2006 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Sat, 18 Mar 2006 23:16:17 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <20060319041914.5BCC0D4A71@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 190415 SWOMCD SPC MCD 190415 TXZ000-190615- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0309 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1015 PM CST SAT MAR 18 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS CENTRAL/N-CENTRAL TX...E OF WW 94 CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...HEAVY RAINFALL VALID 190415Z - 190615Z SEVERE TSTM POTENTIAL MAY SHIFT EWD FROM WW 94 AFTER ABOUT 530Z...BEFORE GRADUAL OVERALL WEAKENING TREND ENSUES. ANOTHER WW MAY BE REQUIRED. ALSO...LOCALIZED RAIN RATES 2-3 INCHES/HOUR ARE POSSIBLE. BOTH ELEVATED BUOYANCY AND VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES ARE FCST TO WEAKEN WITH EWD EXTENT ACROSS CENTRAL/NRN TX...INDICATING GENERAL DECREASE IN ORGANIZED SEVERE THREAT BETWEEN HILL COUNTRY AND AREAS ALONG/E OF I-35. HOWEVER...LARGE HAIL AND STRONG GUSTS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY BETWEEN E EDGE OF WW 94 AND I-35...GIVEN EXTENSIVE COVERAGE OF CONVECTION...AND AT LEAST MARGINALLY FAVORABLE EFFECTIVE SHEAR FOR ELEVATED LIFTED PARCELS. MUCAPES 500-1000 J/KG ARE EXPECTED. STRONGEST STORM-RELATIVE INFLOW WILL BE ALONG SRN PORTIONS OF CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS...GIVEN 35-45 KT SWLY LLJ FCST. RICH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ABOVE FRONTAL SFC CONTRIBUTES TO PW 1.25 INCHES BASED ON GPS DATA...MODIFIED RAOBS AND RUC SOUNDINGS. MERGING AND TRAINING OF CELLS WILL ENHANCE THREAT FROM HEAVY RAIN. ..EDWARDS.. 03/19/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...EWX...SJT... 29849898 30889912 32469959 33189961 33419895 33339797 32849730 32189707 30209760 29689844 29599888 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun Mar 19 07:21:38 2006 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Sun, 19 Mar 2006 02:21:38 -0500 Subject: [MCD] {Spam?} SWOMCD Message-ID: <20060319072435.1CEB9D4703@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 190723 SWOMCD SPC MCD 190723 TXZ000-190800- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0311 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0123 AM CST SUN MAR 19 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF THE TX BIG BEND REGION AND THE EDWARDS PLATEAU/HILL COUNTRY CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 94... VALID 190723Z - 190800Z NEW WW BEING CONSIDERED ACROSS PARTS OF THE TX BIG BEND REGION AND THE EDWARDS PLATEAU/HILL COUNTRY OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. REGIONAL RADARS/MESO-ANALYSIS INDICATED THE MOST RECENT CONVECTIVE COMPLEX WHICH HAD DEVELOPED AROUND 05Z OVER PARTS OF SW/CENTRAL TX SHOULD CONTINUE TO TRACK TO THE E/ESE DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. STRONG EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR VALUES COMBINED WITH SLY LLJ PROVIDING AN INFLOW OF HIGH THETA-E AIR SUGGESTS THIS COMPLEX SHOULD PERSIST WITH SUSTAINED ROTATING UPDRAFTS PRODUCING PRIMARILY LARGE HAIL. THE STRONGEST STORMS AT THIS TIME WERE LOCATED ACROSS CROCKETT INTO SUTTON COUNTIES...WITH THIS ACTIVITY LOCATED CLOSEST TO THE SURFACE BOUNDARY AND OUTFLOW BOUNDARY INDICATING POTENTIAL FOR AN ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT...GIVEN ENHANCED LOW-LEVEL SHEAR VALUES LIKELY ALONG THESE BOUNDARIES. ..PETERS.. 03/19/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...FWD...EWX...SJT...MAF... 30010242 30570187 31270074 31329918 31129765 29349833 29259962 29540134 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun Mar 19 10:46:07 2006 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Sun, 19 Mar 2006 05:46:07 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <20060319104903.B28A1D4645@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 191048 SWOMCD SPC MCD 191047 TXZ000-191215- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0312 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0447 AM CST SUN MAR 19 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF SOUTH CENTRAL TX CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 95... VALID 191047Z - 191215Z GREATEST SEVERE THREAT IS EXPECTED TO BE ALONG THE SRN PERIPHERY OF THE CENTRAL TX CONVECTIVE COMPLEX THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THE POTENTIAL FOR AN ISOLATED TORNADO REMAINS...GIVEN PROXIMITY OF STRONGEST STORMS...AT THIS TIME...NEAR THE SURFACE BOUNDARY. HAIL IS ALSO A THREAT. 10Z MESO-ANALYSIS INDICATED THE WARM FRONT EXTENDED GENERALLY WWD FROM THE UPPER TX COAST TO AROUND DRT...WHILE AN INVERTED TROUGH EXTENDED FROM NNW OF DRT NEWD INTO CENTRAL TX /35 W TPL/ AND THEN ENEWD TO EAST CENTRAL TX. REGIONAL RADARS/SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED THE SRN EXTENT OF THE CENTRAL TX CONVECTIVE COMPLEX WAS LOCATED ALONG/N OF THE INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH FROM THE COUNTIES OF EDWARDS TO SAN SABA/LAMPASAS. THIS ACTIVITY WAS TRACKING NEWD PARALLEL TO THE TROUGH SUGGESTING A CONTINUED POTENTIAL FOR STORMS TO ROOT NEAR/ CLOSE TO THE SURFACE FOR AN ATTENDANT THREAT OF AN ISOLATED TORNADO. OTHERWISE...THE THREAT WITH THE STRONGER ELEVATED STORMS WILL PRIMARILY BE HAIL. LATEST WSR-88D VWP DATA FROM DRT INDICATED A WEAKENING TREND IN THE SLY LLJ. THIS COMBINED WITH DECREASING LARGE SCALE ASCENT...AS THE TAIL END OF A CENTRAL PLAINS SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES AWAY FROM CENTRAL TX...WOULD SUGGEST DIMINISHING DEEP LAYER FORCING WITH TIME ACROSS CENTRAL TX. THUS...THE STRONGEST ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN ALONG THE SRN PERIPHERY OF THE CONVECTIVE COMPLEX...CLOSEST TO THE INFLOW OF A RICHER AIR MASS. ..PETERS.. 03/19/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...FWD...EWX...SJT... 29830139 30660136 31549998 31509836 31109736 30049843 29520073 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun Mar 19 11:14:57 2006 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Sun, 19 Mar 2006 06:14:57 -0500 Subject: [MCD] {Spam?} SWOMCD Message-ID: <20060319111753.458A7D4703@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 191117 SWOMCD SPC MCD 191116 NEZ000-SDZ000-191545- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0313 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0516 AM CST SUN MAR 19 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...WESTERN/SOUTH CENTRAL SD AND NORTH CENTRAL/NORTHEAST NEB CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW VALID 191116Z - 191545Z MODERATE/LOCALLY HEAVY SNOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS WESTERN/SOUTH CENTRAL SD AND NORTH CENTRAL INTO NORTHEAST NEB THROUGH MID MORNING. SNOW RATES MAY REACH 1 IN/HR THROUGH 15Z...ESPECIALLY ACROSS WEST CENTRAL/SOUTH CENTRAL SD AND NORTH CENTRAL NEB. ON PERIPHERY OF WESTERN STATES BROAD TROUGH...SEVERAL SUBTLE SHORTWAVE IMPULSES PER WV IMAGERY...LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION...AND COUPLED UPPER JET STRUCTURE ARE CONTRIBUTING TO NORTHWEST-SOUTHEAST ORIENTED PRECIPITATION SHIELD THIS MORNING FROM WEST CENTRAL SD TO SOUTHEAST NEB. WHILE CURRENT TRENDS/SHORT TERM MODELS SUGGEST A MODEST NORTHEASTWARD TRANSITION OF THE HEAVIER SNOW THROUGH EARLY MORNING...INFLUENCE OF NORTHERN PLAINS HIGH PRESSURE AND LOW LEVEL DRY ADVECTION WILL TEND TO HINDER LOW LEVEL SATURATION...LEADING TO A SHARP DEMARKATION OF THE HEAVIER SNOW THIS MORNING ACROSS CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST SD INTO NORTHEAST NEB. THE MOST FAVORED CORRIDOR FOR MODERATE/LOCALIZED HEAVY SNOW THROUGH MID MORNING WILL LIKELY BE ALONG A PHILIP SD TO AINSWORTH-O'NEILL-COLUMBUS NEB AXIS. WITHIN THIS CORRIDOR...RUC SOUNDINGS DEPICT A SUSTAINED DURATION OF AMPLE UVVS JUXTAPOSED WITH A SATURATED DENDRITIC LAYER...IN ADDITION TO PRESENCE OF MODEST POTENTIAL INSTABILITY. ..GUYER.. 03/19/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...FSD...OAX...ABR...GID...LBF...UNR... 44470341 45130244 44499988 42019723 41179706 40959785 41419929 42490077 43690197 43740312 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun Mar 19 13:53:22 2006 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Sun, 19 Mar 2006 08:53:22 -0500 Subject: [MCD] {Spam?} SWOMCD Message-ID: <20060319135619.1FA46D4A94@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 191355 SWOMCD SPC MCD 191355 TXZ000-191430- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0314 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0755 AM CST SUN MAR 19 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF CENTRAL TX CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 95... VALID 191355Z - 191430Z NEW WW BEING ISSUED FOR PARTS OF CENTRAL TX. 13Z SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATED THE INVERTED TROUGH EXTENDED NEWD THROUGH THE COUNTIES OF EDWARDS TO GILLESPIE/SRN BURNET TO EAST CENTRAL TX. SRN SEVERE STORM...NOW OVER GILLESPIE COUNTY... REMAINED NEAR THIS BOUNDARY WITH CONTINUED INDICATIONS OF LOW-LEVEL ROTATION. ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP/MOVE NEWD ALONG THIS BOUNDARY GIVEN ELY SURFACE WINDS ALONG THE TROUGH WILL HAVE THE CAPABILITY TO PRODUCE A TORNADO. UNCERTAINTY REMAINS AT HOW MANY ADDITIONAL STORMS WILL DEVELOP IN THE NEAR SHORT TERM GIVEN LIMITED NEW STORM INITIATION PER CURRENT UPSTREAM RADAR TRENDS. MEANWHILE...LEFT SPLITTING SUPERCELL /WHICH SPLIT A SECOND TIME/ WITH RESPECTIVE LEFT AND RIGHT MOVING STORMS NOW LOCATED OVER CONCHO AND MASON COUNTIES RESPECTIVELY ARE LIKELY ELEVATED GIVEN DISTANCE FROM INVERTED TROUGH. THESE STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE LARGE HAIL. ANOTHER STORM HAS FORMED FARTHER WNW OVER REAGAN COUNTY. THIS NEW STORM ALONG WITH ANY NEW DEVELOPMENT WNW OF SURFACE TROUGH SHOULD REMAIN AN ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT...AT LEAST THROUGH MID MORNING...AS INCREASING LARGE SCALE ASCENT/WAA DEVELOPS NEWD AHEAD OF SHORT WAVE TROUGH/SPEED MAX NOW ENTERING FAR W TX. ..PETERS.. 03/19/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...FWD...EWX...SJT...MAF... 29830179 30870197 31860138 32389988 32279739 31829598 30069764 29799893 29250074 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun Mar 19 16:10:04 2006 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Sun, 19 Mar 2006 11:10:04 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <20060319161259.5CF88D4A96@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 191612 SWOMCD SPC MCD 191612 LAZ000-TXZ000-191745- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0315 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1012 AM CST SUN MAR 19 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL TO NERN TX CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 96... VALID 191612Z - 191745Z ISOLATED VIGOROUS STORMS...SOME WITH HAIL...WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO DEVELOP WITHIN ELEVATED FRONTAL ZONE ACROSS CNTRL AND ERN TX THROUGH THIS MORNING. A NEW WATCH OVER THIS AREA DOES NOT APPEAR IMMINENT. EXTENSIVE LARGE SCALE TROUGH ACROSS THE WRN U.S. CONTINUES TO PROMOTE A BROAD REGION OF STRONG ISENTROPIC ASCENT ACROSS TX THIS MORNING. LOW AMPLITUDE IMPULSES EJECTING NEWD FROM THE LARGER SCALE TROUGH...COUPLED WITH DIURNAL STRENGTHENING OF LOW LEVEL JET...CONTINUE TO AID MCS DEVELOPMENT FROM THE PECOS VALLEY TO THE HILL COUNTRY. ONE SUCH DISTURBANCE WAS RESULTING IN THE CLUSTER OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS CURRENTLY FROM CONCHO COUNTY TO CORYELL AND BELL COUNTY. THIS ACTIVITY IS ROOTED AROUND 800MB BASED ON LATEST RUC SOUNDINGS AND STRONG EFFECTIVE SHEAR WAS LEADING TO PERSISTENT UPDRAFTS AND SUPERCELL STRUCTURE IN A FEW OF THE STORMS. ELEVATED NATURE OF THE CONVECTION...AND SOMEWHAT MARGINAL LAPSE RATES IN THE WAKE OF WIDESPREAD CONVECTION OVER THE PAST DAYS WOULD SUGGEST THAT THE HAIL POTENTIAL FROM THIS CONVECTION SHOULD REMAIN LIMITED AS IT CONTINUES TO SPREAD ENEWD THROUGH THE MORNING. ADDITIONAL UPSTREAM PERTURBATIONS EJECTING NEWD FROM THE LARGER SCALE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE MODEST TO STRONG FORCING FOR ASCENT ACROSS MUCH OF TX THROUGH THE DAY. RESULTING STRONG MASS AND MOISTURE FLUX...AND INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE INFLOW ACROSS THE DEEP FRONTAL ZONE OVER THE REGION...WILL LIKELY LEAD TO MORE WIDESPREAD INTENSE TSTMS LATER TODAY. ..CARBIN.. 03/19/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...SHV...HGX...FWD...EWX...SJT... 31229538 30879653 30569777 30499911 30579979 31050025 31579989 32069908 32969613 33139494 33039417 32389391 31549416 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun Mar 19 18:15:01 2006 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Sun, 19 Mar 2006 13:15:01 -0500 Subject: [MCD] {Spam?} SWOMCD Message-ID: <20060319181755.E7C34D45E0@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 191816 SWOMCD SPC MCD 191815 TXZ000-192015- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0316 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1215 PM CST SUN MAR 19 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...WCNTRL TX CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 191815Z - 192015Z TSTMS WERE BEGINNING TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE FROM THE TRANS PECOS TO THE NWRN HILL COUNTRY OF WCNTRL TX. A WATCH MAY BE NEEDED FOR PARTS OF THIS AREA THIS AFTERNOON. SCATTERED TSTMS PERSIST ACROSS PARTS OF WRN TX EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. MUCH OF THIS CONVECTION REMAINS ELEVATED ATOP COOL/STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER AND WAS BEING SUPPORTED BY STRONG ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE OCCURRING TO THE NORTH OF SURFACE WARM FRONT. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND SHORT TERM MODEL GUIDANCE APPEAR TO SUGGEST THAT THE NEXT MID/UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WAS EJECTING OUT OF THE BASE OF THE LARGE SCALE TROUGH AND WAS MOVING ENEWD ACROSS WEST TX/SRN NM ATTM. IN RESPONSE TO THIS MID LEVEL FORCING... EXPECT LOW LEVEL ASCENT TO STRENGTHEN ACROSS THE WARM FRONT OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. PARCELS WITHIN THIS STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL ORIGINATE FROM WARM AND VERY MOIST AIR MASS ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE WARM FRONT AND SHOULD CONTRIBUTE TO INCREASINGLY VIGOROUS TSTM DEVELOPMENT. EFFECTIVE SHEAR WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT UPDRAFT PERSISTENCE AND ROTATION WITH EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS POSING A THREAT OF LARGE HAIL. SURFACE-BASED STORM INITIATION ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE WARM FRONT STILL APPEARS POSSIBLE LATER THIS AFTERNOON GIVEN MAGNITUDE OF LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT CONTRIBUTING TO PERSISTENT LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE. HOWEVER...WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER HAS SO FAR GREATLY INHIBITED SURFACE HEATING NEAR THE BOUNDARY AND CAPPING WILL PROBABLY HOLD FOR AT LEAST A FEW MORE HOURS. SOME BREAKS IN THE DENSE CI ARE STARTING TO APPEAR ACROSS THE BIG BEND AREA AND MAY SPREAD EAST ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. ..CARBIN.. 03/19/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...FWD...SJT...MAF... 31399890 30779930 30380320 31100280 31570224 32470070 32499940  From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun Mar 19 19:27:13 2006 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Sun, 19 Mar 2006 14:27:13 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <20060319193007.5839CD45E0@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 191928 SWOMCD SPC MCD 191928 COZ000-NMZ000-192200- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0317 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0128 PM CST SUN MAR 19 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...NERN NM AND SERN CO CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 191928Z - 192200Z CHANCE FOR WIDELY SCATTERED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS APPEARS TO BE INCREASING OVER PARTS OF NERN NM AND SERN CO THIS AFTERNOON. A FEW STORMS COULD PRODUCE HAIL TO ABOUT 1 INCH IN DIAMETER. VERY STRONG LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH AGEOSTROPHIC ADJUSTMENTS WITHIN EXIT REGION OF MID LEVEL JET WILL CONTINUE TO OVERSPREAD THE SRN HIGH PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE...MODEST SURFACE HEATING IN THE WAKE OF HIGH LEVEL BAROCLINIC CLOUD BAND...COUPLED WITH MOIST UPSLOPE FLOW...WERE CONTRIBUTING TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF WEAK INSTABILITY ACROSS THE AREA. LACK OF GREATER MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO LIMIT MLCAPE TO AOB 500 J/KG. HOWEVER...THE COMBINATION OF STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND STRONG FORCING AND EFFECTIVE SHEAR SHOULD OFFSET THE LIMITED INSTABILITY AND AID IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED LOW-TOPPED BUT STRONG THUNDERSTORMS. A FEW OF THESE STORMS COULD BRIEFLY REACH SEVERE LEVELS WITH HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS. ..CARBIN.. 03/19/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...GLD...PUB...BOU...ABQ... 35530332 34350346 33370497 33540573 35280543 36060556 37880492 39090466 39450391 39180336 38320296 36830318  From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun Mar 19 21:04:30 2006 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Sun, 19 Mar 2006 16:04:30 -0500 Subject: [MCD] {Spam?} SWOMCD Message-ID: <20060319210725.2E4DED4A94@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 192103 SWOMCD SPC MCD 192102 TXZ000-192300- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0318 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0302 PM CST SUN MAR 19 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...SCNTRL TX CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 192102Z - 192300Z SURFACE-BASED TSTMS WITH ATTENDANT THREAT OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE OVER PARTS OF SCNTRL TX THROUGH THIS EVENING. A WATCH WILL BE ISSUED SHORTLY. COMPLICATED FORECAST SCENARIO PERSISTS ACROSS TX LATE THIS AFTERNOON AS FAST MOVING MID LEVEL DISTURBANCES CONTINUE TO EJECT NEWD OUT OF LARGE SCALE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE WEST. STRONGEST OF THESE DISTURBANCES WAS CURRENTLY ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH ACROSS SERN AZ/SWRN NM. INCREASINGLY DIFFLUENT MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL AID LARGE SCALE LIFT ACROSS TX THROUGH THE EVENING. AT THE SURFACE...WAVY FRONTAL ZONE STRETCHES FROM FAR WEST TX EWD ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY AND WAS REINFORCED IN VARIOUS LOCATIONS BY CONVECTIVELY COOLED BOUNDARY LAYER AIR MASS TO THE NORTH. MOST RECENT CONVECTIVE COMPLEX...NEAR CONCHO COUNTY... APPEARS ANCHORED NEAR FRONT/OUTFLOW INTERSECTION WHERE WEAK FRONTAL WAVE WAS LIKELY ENHANCING INFLOW INTO ELEVATED CONVECTIVE PLUME. STRONG LIFT ON THE LEADING EDGE OF NEXT UPSTREAM PERTURBATION APPEARS TO NOW BE PROMOTING RAPID TSTM DEVELOPMENT OVER PECOS AND CROCKETT COUNTIES. THIS ACTIVITY APPEARS TO BE TAPPING GREATER INSTABILITY AND MAY BECOME SEVERE SHORTLY. ADDITIONAL SURFACE-BASED STORMS APPEAR LIKELY OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS LARGE SCALE FORCING CONTINUES TO ACT ON UNSTABLE AIR ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE SURFACE BOUNDARY. SHEAR AND FORCING WILL BE MORE THAN ADEQUATE FOR SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL AND WIND DAMAGE BECOMING INCREASINGLY LIKELY ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR THIS EVENING. ..CARBIN.. 03/19/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...FWD...EWX...SJT...MAF... 29410061 29930245 30340238 30990154 31210041 31319947 31509722 30539740 29889777  From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun Mar 19 23:27:47 2006 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Sun, 19 Mar 2006 18:27:47 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <20060319233044.A58B7D4A94@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 192328 SWOMCD SPC MCD 192328 NEZ000-KSZ000-SDZ000-COZ000-WYZ000-200530- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0319 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0528 PM CST SUN MAR 19 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...NEB/NRN KS/NE CO/SE WY/SRN SD CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW VALID 192328Z - 200530Z ...MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW WILL DEVELOP/CONTINUE ACROSS CNTRL NEB THROUGH THE EVENING...WITH HRLY SNOW RATES AT LEAST 1-2 INCHES PER HOUR /PSBLY HIGHER IN CONVECTIVE BURSTS/. HEAVY SNOW WILL DEVELOP WITHIN A FEW HOURS ACROSS NE COLORADO... LATEST SATELLITE/RADAR LOOPS INDICATE PRECIPITATION IS INCREASING ACROSS THE PLAINS WITHIN STRONGLY DIFFLUENT UPPER FLOW PATTERN. TSTMS HAVE BEEN ONGOING IN KS THIS AFTN AND ARE SPREADING NWD INTO NEB WITH TSSN OBSERVED WITHIN THE LAST HOUR OR TWO AT MCCOOK NEB. 18Z SOUNDING AT LAMONT OK SEEMS TO HAVE SAMPLED THE ELEVATED INSTABILITY WELL...SO ISOLD LTG STRIKES WILL CONTINUE AND CONVECTIVELY ENHANCE SNOW RATES THROUGH THE EVENING. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ACROSS SCNTRL NEB SUGGEST STEEP ELEVATED LAPSE RATES NEAR AND MUCAPE RANGING FROM 100-300 J/KG. LARGE SCALE LIFT INCREASES DRAMATICALLY ACROSS THE CNTRL PLAINS AFTER 00Z AS MAIN VORT MAX NOW OVER NW MEXICO APPROACHES. IN ADDITION TO THE STRONG LARGE SCALE FORCING...LOW LEVEL THETAE ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC LIFT ACROSS MID LEVEL FRONTAL SFC WILL RESULT IN A LARGE AREA OF HEAVY PCPN. HEAVIEST SNOWS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS WILL FALL FROM SCNTRL SD THROUGH SRN/SERN PORTIONS OF NEB. NCEP SREF GUIDANCE SUGGESTS AT LEAST 1 INCH/HOUR SNOW RATES ALONG THIS AXIS...WHICH WILL PERSIST WELL INTO THE OVERNIGHT. SHALLOW WARM INVERSION NOW IN PLACE ACROSS SW NEB/NE CO IS RESULTING IN FZRA AT AKO AND IML. STRONG WAA MAY MAINTAIN THIS FOR A TIME...THUS REDUCING OVERALL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS SW NEB. ONCE COLUMN COOLS SUFFICIENTLY...HEAVY SNOW WILL BE MAIN PTYPE ACROSS NE CO. IMPRESSIVE DENVER CYCLONE DEVELOPING WITH VERY STRONG INFLOW NOTED SE OF DEN. SFC WINDS WILL BECOME MORE NELY WITH TIME THIS EVENING...WHICH WILL FAVORABLY ENHANCE UPSLOPE SNOWS INVOF OF THE PALMER DIVIDE. THANKS TO WFO LBF FOR COORD. ..TAYLOR.. 03/19/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...FSD...OAX...TOP...ABR...GID...LBF...UNR...GLD...PUB...BOU...CYS... 39239860 39320159 38820459 39380538 41060591 43030404 43890216 44089977 41259599 40109583 39369677  From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun Mar 19 23:31:07 2006 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Sun, 19 Mar 2006 18:31:07 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <20060319233401.BD7A5D4A94@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 192332 SWOMCD SPC MCD 192331 COR NEZ000-KSZ000-SDZ000-COZ000-WYZ000-200530- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0319 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0531 PM CST SUN MAR 19 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...NEB/NRN KS/NE CO/SE WY/SRN SD CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW VALID 192331Z - 200530Z CORRECTED FOR SECOND PARAGRAPH ...MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW WILL DEVELOP/CONTINUE ACROSS CNTRL NEB THROUGH THE EVENING...WITH HRLY SNOW RATES AT LEAST 1-2 INCHES PER HOUR /PSBLY HIGHER IN CONVECTIVE BURSTS/. HEAVY SNOW WILL DEVELOP WITHIN A FEW HOURS ACROSS NE COLORADO... LATEST SATELLITE/RADAR LOOPS INDICATE PRECIPITATION IS INCREASING ACROSS THE PLAINS WITHIN STRONGLY DIFFLUENT UPPER FLOW PATTERN. TSTMS HAVE BEEN ONGOING IN KS THIS AFTN AND ARE SPREADING NWD INTO NEB WITH TSSN OBSERVED WITHIN THE LAST HOUR OR TWO AT MCCOOK NEB. 18Z SOUNDING AT LAMONT OK SEEMS TO HAVE SAMPLED THE ELEVATED INSTABILITY WELL...SO ISOLD LTG STRIKES WILL CONTINUE AND CONVECTIVELY ENHANCE SNOW RATES THROUGH THE EVENING. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ACROSS SCNTRL NEB SUGGEST STEEP ELEVATED LAPSE RATES NEAR 8 C/KG AND MUCAPE RANGING FROM 100-300 J/KG. LARGE SCALE LIFT INCREASES DRAMATICALLY ACROSS THE CNTRL PLAINS AFTER 00Z AS MAIN VORT MAX NOW OVER NW MEXICO APPROACHES. IN ADDITION TO THE STRONG LARGE SCALE FORCING...LOW LEVEL THETAE ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC LIFT ACROSS MID LEVEL FRONTAL SFC WILL RESULT IN A LARGE AREA OF HEAVY PCPN. HEAVIEST SNOWS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS WILL FALL FROM SCNTRL SD THROUGH CNTRL/SERN PORTIONS OF NEB. NCEP SREF GUIDANCE SUGGESTS AT LEAST 1 INCH/HOUR SNOW RATES ALONG THIS AXIS...WHICH WILL PERSIST WELL INTO THE OVERNIGHT. SHALLOW WARM INVERSION NOW IN PLACE ACROSS SW NEB/NE CO IS RESULTING IN FZRA AT AKO AND IML. STRONG WAA MAY MAINTAIN THIS FOR A TIME...THUS REDUCING OVERALL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS SW NEB. ONCE COLUMN COOLS SUFFICIENTLY...HEAVY SNOW WILL BE MAIN PTYPE ACROSS NE CO. IMPRESSIVE DENVER CYCLONE DEVELOPING WITH VERY STRONG INFLOW NOTED SE OF DEN. SFC WINDS WILL BECOME MORE NELY WITH TIME THIS EVENING...WHICH WILL FAVORABLY ENHANCE UPSLOPE SNOWS INVOF OF THE PALMER DIVIDE. THANKS TO WFO LBF FOR COORD. ..TAYLOR.. 03/19/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...FSD...OAX...TOP...ABR...GID...LBF...UNR...GLD...PUB...BOU...CYS... 39239860 39320159 38820459 39380538 41060591 43030404 43890216 44089977 41259599 40109583 39369677  From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun Mar 19 23:36:55 2006 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Sun, 19 Mar 2006 18:36:55 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <20060319233949.544CDD45E0@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 192336 SWOMCD SPC MCD 192336 TXZ000-200130- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0320 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0536 PM CST SUN MAR 19 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS SW/S-CENTRAL TX CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 97... VALID 192336Z - 200130Z LINE OF SEVERE TSTMS -- INCLUDING APPARENT HEAVY-PRECIP SUPERCELL ON ITS SRN TAIL END -- IS MOVING ENE ABOUT 40 KT ACROSS CROCKETT/IRION COUNTIES AS OF 2330Z. ALTHOUGH SFC OBS ARE SPARSE IN THIS AREA...ANCHORING SUPERCELL APPEARS TO BE JUST N OF QUASISTATIONARY SFC FRONTAL ZONE ANALYZED ALONG LINE FROM BPT...CLL...JCT...15 S FST. SHALLOW AND RELATIVELY STABLE FRONTAL LAYER MAY LIE BENEATH SUPERCELL...HOWEVER EFFECTIVE PARCELS REACH AT OR NEAR SFC IN MODIFIED RUC SOUNDINGS...INDICATING POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE GUSTS AND PERHAPS A TORNADO REMAINS...IN ADDITION TO DAMAGING HAIL. STRONG LOW LEVEL ROTATION HAS BEEN REPORTED BY SPOTTERS WITH THIS STORM PER SJT WARNINGS. AT 2330Z OTHER TSTMS ARE DEVELOPING RAPIDLY ACROSS PORTIONS NRN COAHUILA...FROM SERRANIAS DEL BURRO RANGE NNEWD ACROSS RIO GRANDE VALLEY...AND INTO PORTIONS VAL VERDE COUNTY TX. AIR MASS BETWEEN THIS ACTIVITY AND WARM FRONT WILL FAVOR INTENSIFICATION TO SEVERE LEVELS...WITH SHEAR AND THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES FAVORING BOTH SUPERCELLS AND BOW ECHOES. DRT VWP AND RUC SOUNDINGS EWD TOWARD SAT INDICATE STRONG VEERING WITH HEIGHT AND FAVORABLE HODOGRAPHS...WHICH WILL BE MAXIMIZED ALONG FRONT. ANY RELATIVELY DISCRETE TSTM INTERACTING WITH FRONT MAY TIGHTEN LOW LEVEL MESOCYCLONE AND PRODUCE TORNADOES. LARGER DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS AND HIGHER DCAPE ARE EVIDENT FARTHER SE ACROSS UVA/HDO/COT AREAS..WHERE BOUNDARY LAYER HAS BEEN STRONGLY HEATED AND MIXED. POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR INITIAL ACTIVITY NEAR RIO GRANDE TO ORGANIZE INTO MCS AS INDICATED BY SEVERAL 12Z/18Z MODELS AND 21Z RUC...WITH DERECHO POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS S-CENTRAL/SE TX. SHOULD THIS EVOLUTION BECOME BETTER EVIDENT...ANOTHER WW MAY BE REQUIRED FARTHER E WITHIN A FEW HOURS. ..EDWARDS.. 03/19/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...FWD...EWX...SJT...MAF... 29629850 29219978 29190137 29870144 31570125 31830080 31859865 31109853 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun Mar 19 23:50:59 2006 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Sun, 19 Mar 2006 18:50:59 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <20060319235352.D9E42D48EB@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 192352 SWOMCD SPC MCD 192351 TXZ000-NMZ000-200045- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0321 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0551 PM CST SUN MAR 19 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS E-CENTRAL/SERN NM CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 192351Z - 200045Z WW MAY BE REQUIRED SOON FOR PORTIONS TX/NM BORDER REGION FROM I-40 SWD TOWARD INK REGION. WIDELY SCATTERED TSTMS ARE DEVELOPING FROM CULBERSON COUNTY TX NNEWD TOWARD TCC AREA...IN ZONE OF 250-800 J/KG SBCAPES AND 70-80 KT DEEP-LAYER SHEAR...FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING GUSTS. ALTHOUGH SFC AIR MASS IS COOL WITH TEMPS 50S TO LOW 60S IN PROSPECTIVE INFLOW REGION...COLD AIR ALOFT AND STEEP LAPSE RATES WILL SUPPORT POTENTIAL FOR SFC-BASED TSTMS AS FAR E AS INVOF TX/NM BORDER. ACTIVITY MAY CONTINUE MOVING EWD ATOP PROGRESSIVELY MORE STABLE SFC AIR INTO TX PANHANDLE AND SOUTH PLAINS...WITH CONTINUED RISK OF LARGE HAIL. ..EDWARDS.. 03/19/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LUB...AMA...MAF...ABQ... 31400345 31400385 31580441 32330417 33320403 35020363 35470343 35490309 35210249 33480200 31650256  From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Mar 20 02:52:03 2006 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Sun, 19 Mar 2006 21:52:03 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <20060320025455.C046AD4A94@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 200254 SWOMCD SPC MCD 200254 TXZ000-NMZ000-200500- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0322 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0854 PM CST SUN MAR 19 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS E-CENTRAL/SERN NM...TX TRANS-PECOS REGION NWD THROUGH SOUTH PLAINS TO SWRN TX PANHANDLE. CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 98... VALID 200254Z - 200500Z CONTINUE WW 98. AREA E OF WW 98 WILL BE MONITORED FOR POSSIBLE WW AS WELL. SCATTERED-NUMEROUS TSTMS ARE DEVELOPING ALONG WRN EDGE OF WW AS OF 0230Z...W OF ORIGINAL AND MORE WIDELY SCATTERED ACTIVITY THAT NOW IS MOVING INTO TX. THIS ACTIVITY IS FORMING ALONG COMBINED DRYLINE/FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT NOW APPEARS TO BE MOVING EWD AGAIN FROM ERN PORTIONS CHAVES/EDDY COUNTIES. SEVERE CONCERN IS TRANSITIONING MAINLY TO LARGE HAIL...NOW THAT BOUNDARY LAYER IS COOLING...AND ALSO...WITH ACTIVITY LIKELY TO MOVE OVER PROGRESSIVELY COOLER SFC AIR MASS ADVECTING INTO REGION FROM E. PER COORD WITH MAF...NUMEROUS REPORTS OF MRGLLY SEVERE HAIL WERE RECEIVED IN CNM AREA AROUND 02Z. OCCASIONAL HAIL IS POSSIBLE E OF WW ACROSS REMAINDER S PLAINS REGION AND SRN TX PANHANDLE THROUGH 06Z. RAOB DATA AND FCST SOUNDINGS INDICATE ELEVATED MUCAPES UP TO 500 J/KG ATTM ALONG LBB-MAF LINE...DIMINISHING TO NEAR ZERO ALONG 100 W LONGITUDE...WITH 60-75 KT EFFECTIVE SHEAR. AS DEEP/COLD TROUGH ALOFT OVER GREAT BASIN AND FOREGOING PLUME OF LARGE SCALE ASCENT CONTINUE TO ACCELERATE EWD...GRADUAL INCREASE IN MUCAPE MAY OCCUR FROM W-E ACROSS REGION AND OVER ANY GIVEN LOCALE. ..EDWARDS.. 03/20/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LUB...AMA...MAF...ABQ... 31490468 33690399 34530383 34920258 34790173 34190120 32970137 31820216 31180315 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Mar 20 05:35:47 2006 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Mon, 20 Mar 2006 00:35:47 -0500 Subject: [MCD] {Spam?} SWOMCD Message-ID: <20060320053840.56A24D45E0@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 200538 SWOMCD SPC MCD 200537 TXZ000-200700- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0324 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1137 PM CST SUN MAR 19 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS W TX AND EXTREME ERN NM CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 100...98... VALID 200537Z - 200700Z SVR POTENTIAL SHOULD BE OUT OF WW 98 BY SCHEDULED 07Z EXPIRATION TIME...AND HAS EXITED NM WHERE AIR MASS HAS STABILIZED CONSIDERABLY AND SUBSTANTIAL DRYING IS UNDERWAY. CONTINUE WW 100. WRN MOST BAND OF STRONG FORCING IS EVIDENT AS OF 0530Z FROM ANDREWS COUNTY NWD TOWARD BAILEY/LAMB COUNTY LINE...CORRESPONDING TO STRONG AND SEVERE CONVECTION. WIDELY SCATTERED TSTMS ALSO ARE EVIDENT AHEAD OF THAT ACTIVITY...MOVING ENEWD 30-40 KT...INCLUDING NRN PORTIONS MAF AREA. ACTIVITY IN THIS REGION HAS PRODUCED ABUNDANT AMOUNTS OF MRGL SEVERE HAIL IN SEVERAL LOCALES. THREAT FOR HAIL WILL CONTINUE AS CONVECTION MOVES NEWD OUT OF WW 98 AND ACROSS WW 100 DURING NEXT 2-3 HOURS. AIR MASS OVER W-CENTRAL TX REMAINS QUITE STABLE WITHIN 2-3 KM AGL BASED ON MODIFIED 00Z MAF RAOB AND RUC FCST SOUNDINGS. HOWEVER ELEVATED MUCAPES 400-800 J/KG AND EFFECTIVE SHEARS OVER 60 KT WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT STORM ORGANIZATION WITH INFLOW LAYER ROOTED BETWEEN 700-850 MB. ..EDWARDS.. 03/20/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...HGX...FWD...CRP...EWX... 27939999 29549972 30119904 30229820 30959731 31259680 31139611 30479552 29879570 28769726 27829897 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Mar 20 07:24:14 2006 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Mon, 20 Mar 2006 02:24:14 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <20060320072706.217E5D45E0@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 200726 SWOMCD SPC MCD 200726 LAZ000-TXZ000-200830- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0325 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0126 AM CST MON MAR 20 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF THE MID/UPPER TX COAST INCLUDING ADJACENT COASTAL PLAINS CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 99... VALID 200726Z - 200830Z NEW WW WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED TO THE E AND NE OF WW 99...PRIMARILY FROM THE MID TX COAST REGION NEWD TO THE SABINE RIVER. 07Z SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATED A LOW DEVELOPING TO THE NW OF CRP/SW OF VCT IN THE COUNTY OF LIVE OAK. THIS LOW WAS LOCATED ALONG A SURFACE BOUNDARY WHICH EXTENDED NEWD INTO EAST CENTRAL TX. RICH MOISTURE S OF THIS BOUNDARY /SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70/ COMBINED WITH STEEP MID LAPSE RATES ARE MAINTAINING A MODERATELY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT. ALTHOUGH OBJECTIVE ANALYSES INDICATED THIS REGION IS CAPPED...LARGE SCALE ASCENT SPREADING ACROSS THIS REGION OVERNIGHT GIVEN CONTINUED HEIGHT FALLS WILL LIKELY RESULT IN SUFFICIENT DESTABILIZATION FOR SURFACE BASED ACTIVITY. 06Z RUC FORECAST SOUNDINGS CONVEY THIS SAME SCENARIO. STORMS AND NEW DEVELOPMENT ASSOCIATED WITH IMMEDIATE UPSTREAM CONVECTIVE COMPLEX WILL TRACK EWD DURING THE EARLY MORNING WITH STRENGTHENING DEEP LAYER SHEAR VALUES MAINTAINING THIS COMPLEX. ENHANCED LOW-LEVEL SHEAR IN THE VICINITY OF THE SURFACE LOW AS IT TRACKS NEWD ALONG THE SURFACE BOUNDARY AND WITH THE BOUNDARY ITSELF WILL SUPPORT A THREAT FOR TORNADOES. ..PETERS.. 03/20/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LCH...SHV...HGX...FWD...CRP...EWX... 27819729 27969827 28549901 29959863 30849812 31509677 32069376 29629372 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Mar 20 08:06:28 2006 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Mon, 20 Mar 2006 03:06:28 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <20060320080923.A2B24D4702@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 200808 SWOMCD SPC MCD 200808 TXZ000-OKZ000-200915- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0326 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0208 AM CST MON MAR 20 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...NW TX CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 100... VALID 200808Z - 200915Z SEVERE STORM THREAT WITHIN VALID PART OF WW 100 WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH. ALTHOUGH EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR VALUES REMAIN SUPPORTIVE FOR ORGANIZED STORMS...WEAKENING INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED TO LIMIT THE POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL SEVERE STORMS ACROSS NW TX. LARGE SCALE ASCENT WITHIN EXIT REGION OF 75 KT SSWLY MID LEVEL JET EXTENDING INTO SWRN OK SHOULD MAINTAIN AREA OF SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED ISOLATED STORMS ACROSS TX PANHANDLE/WRN OK NWD TOWARD SWRN KS. ..PETERS.. 03/20/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...SJT...LUB...AMA...MAF... 31670093 33460075 34760100 34749986 34199892 32039910 31549966 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Mar 20 09:34:35 2006 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Mon, 20 Mar 2006 04:34:35 -0500 Subject: [MCD] {Spam?} SWOMCD Message-ID: <20060320093726.DF22DD45E0@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 200936 SWOMCD SPC MCD 200936 LAZ000-TXZ000-201000- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0327 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0336 AM CST MON MAR 20 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...UPPER TX COAST INTO PARTS OF SERN/EAST CENTRAL TX AND SWRN LA CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 99... VALID 200936Z - 201000Z ISOLATED STRONG WIND GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE MORE INTENSE STORMS THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS FROM THE UPPER TX COASTAL REGION INTO PARTS OF SERN/EAST CENTRAL TX AND SWRN LA. ADDITIONAL WW IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR ANY RE-INTENSIFICATION. AT 0915Z...REGIONAL RADARS INDICATED THE STRONGEST STORMS EXTENDED FROM THE TX COUNTIES OF AUSTIN TO WALLER TO MADISON ALONG THE FAR ERN PART OF WW 99. LATEST MESO-ANALYSIS WOULD SUGGEST THIS ACTIVITY IS ELEVATED GIVEN ITS LOCATION TO THE WNW OF SURFACE TROUGH/OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WHICH EXTENDED FROM THE MIDDLE TX COAST NEWD TO EAST CENTRAL TX. GENERALLY WEAK SURFACE WINDS INDICATIVE OF A DECOUPLED BOUNDARY LAYER ALSO SUGGEST THE EWD MOVING CLUSTER OF STORMS SHOULD REMAIN ELEVATED. CURRENT WEAKENING TREND WITH THESE STORMS IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE...WITH A LOW PROBABILITY FOR FEW STRONG WIND GUSTS. ..PETERS.. 03/20/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LCH...SHV...HGX...FWD...EWX... 28939640 29529696 30459684 31319649 31449524 31429333 29759328 28659571 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Mar 20 10:20:10 2006 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Mon, 20 Mar 2006 05:20:10 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <20060320102302.C6E77D4702@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 201022 SWOMCD SPC MCD 201021 LAZ000-TXZ000-201045- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0328 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0421 AM CST MON MAR 20 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF SERN TX/SWRN-CENTRAL LA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 201021Z - 201045Z WW MAY BE REQUIRED FOR PARTS OF SERN TX INTO SWRN/CENTRAL LA. REGIONAL RADARS INDICATED THE STORM THAT MOVED INTO MONTGOMERY COUNTY DURING THE LAST 30-45 MINUTES HAS LOW-LEVEL ROTATION. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR THE INTERSECTION/TRIPLE POINT OF SW-NE ORIENTED SURFACE TROUGH/OUTFLOW BOUNDARY AND WARM FRONT...WHICH EXTENDED EWD FROM MONTGOMERY COUNTY INTO WEST CENTRAL/CENTRAL LA TO SERN MS. ENHANCED LOW-LEVEL SHEAR ALONG THESE BOUNDARIES WILL SUPPORT A TORNADO POTENTIAL EWD INTO LA THIS MORNING. ..PETERS.. 03/20/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...JAN...LCH...SHV...HGX... 29939578 31019542 31409520 31599380 31699263 31689188 30509193 30009357 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Mar 20 10:36:15 2006 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Mon, 20 Mar 2006 05:36:15 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <20060320103907.A5102D45E0@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 201038 SWOMCD SPC MCD 201038 NEZ000-KSZ000-COZ000-201515- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0329 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0438 AM CST MON MAR 20 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...WESTERN KS/FAR EASTERN CO AND SOUTHERN NEB CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW VALID 201038Z - 201515Z SNOW WILL STEADILY DEVELOP/INCREASE THROUGH MID MORNING ACROSS MUCH OF WESTERN KS/FAR EASTERN CO AND SOUTHERN NEB. SNOW RATES OF 1 IN/HR OR GREATER ARE LIKELY BY 15Z. AS UPPER LOW MOVES EASTWARD OUT OF NM...PRONOUNCED BLOSSOMING/ COOLING AND IMPLIED ASCENT IS EVIDENT IN WATER VAPOR/INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. A CORRESPONDING EXPANSION/INCREASE OF WSR-88D REFLECTIVITY RETURNS ACROSS MUCH OF KS/SOUTHEAST CO/SOUTHERN NEB IS ALSO NOTED EARLY THIS MORNING. WITH CYCLOGENESIS ACROSS NORTHEAST NM...UPPER JET DIVERGENCE JUXTAPOSED WITH LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE AND EASTERLY UPSLOPE WILL CONTRIBUTE TO STRONG UVVS AND INCREASING PRECIPITATION RATES THROUGH THE MORNING. 09Z RUC/00Z 4KM WRF-NMM SUGGEST POTENTIAL FOR 1 IN/HR OR GREATER SNOW RATES BY 15Z IN A SOUTHWEST-NORTHEAST CORRIDOR FROM SOUTHEAST CO/WESTERN KS INTO SOUTH CENTRAL NEB. ACROSS WESTERN KS/SOUTHEAST CO...ALTHOUGH SURFACE TEMPS ARE GENERALLY ABOVE FREEZING AS OF 10Z...ONSET OF HIGHER PRECIPITATION RATES/DYNAMIC COOLING WILL RESULT IN A QUICK ONSET OF SNOWFALL EARLY THIS MORNING AS BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES COOL TO NEAR/BELOW FREEZING. 06Z NAM/09Z RUC SOUNDINGS FURTHER IMPLY THIS IS LIKELY IN THE SHORT TERM...GENERALLY BY 12Z. ..GUYER.. 03/20/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...OAX...TOP...ICT...GID...LBF...DDC...GLD...PUB... 39300256 40430148 41179969 41389671 39619752 37989962 37220082 37090176 37080253 37700322 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Mar 20 12:34:47 2006 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Mon, 20 Mar 2006 07:34:47 -0500 Subject: [MCD] {Spam?} SWOMCD Message-ID: <20060320123738.EFFBBD4703@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 201236 SWOMCD SPC MCD 201236 LAZ000-TXZ000-201330- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0330 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0636 AM CST MON MAR 20 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...FAR SERN TX/SWRN AND CENTRAL LA CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 101... VALID 201236Z - 201330Z TORNADO THREAT REMAINS ACROSS VALID PART OF WW 101 EXTENDING FROM FAR SERN TX INTO SWRN/CENTRAL LA. 12Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED A WARM FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE UPPER TX COASTAL PLAINS /35 NW HOU/ NEWD TO 10 S POE TO 15 S HEZ...AND THEN SEWD ACROSS SERN MS TO FAR SWRN AL. MEANWHILE...OUTFLOW BOUNDARY... ASSOCIATED WITH EXTENSIVE AREA OF CONVECTION OVER NERN TX/NRN LA TO PARTS OF NRN MS...WAS PARALLEL AND JUST NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT IN SE TX/WRN LA...AND THEN EXTENDED NEWD INTO NRN MS. REGIONAL RADARS INDICATED THE STRONGEST STORM WITHIN WW 101 WAS LOCATED IN NEWTON COUNTY AT 1230Z TRACKING TOWARD THE ENE. THIS STORM HAS MAINTAINED A PERSISTENT LOW-LEVEL ROTATION FOR THE LAST 2 HOURS. CLOSE PROXIMITY OF THIS STORM TO THE WARM FRONT AND OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WOULD SUGGEST A HEIGHTENED TORNADO THREAT...GIVEN ENHANCED LOW-LEVEL SHEAR VALUES ALONG THESE BOUNDARIES. FARTHER S ALONG THE UPPER TX COAST REGION...RECENT THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT APPEARS TO BE WITHIN LOW-LEVEL WAA REGIME WITH ISOLATED HAIL BEING THE PRIMARY THREAT WITH THIS ACTIVITY. ..PETERS.. 03/20/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...JAN...LCH...SHV... 30209427 31459418 31619197 30319202 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Mar 20 18:45:12 2006 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Mon, 20 Mar 2006 13:45:12 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <20060320184807.55115D4645@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 201847 SWOMCD SPC MCD 201847 OKZ000-TXZ000-202015- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0332 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1247 PM CST MON MAR 20 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...SWRN OK / NWRN TX CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 201847Z - 202015Z TSTM DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED TO BECOME INCREASINGLY LIKELY BY MID AFTERNOON /20-21Z/ ACROSS DISCUSSION AREA. IT APPEARS THAT ISOLATED LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WITH THE MOST INTENSE STORMS. AS OF 18Z...MESOANALYSIS INDICATED PRIMARY SURFACE LOW OVER THE TX PNHDL /N OF AMA/ WITH ATTENDANT WARM FRONT EXTENDING SEWD THROUGH W-CNTRL OK INTO AND INTO FAR SWRN AR. DEEPENING BOUNDARY-LAYER MIXING HAS RESULTED IN THE EROSION OF LOW CLOUDINESS ACROSS NWRN TX INTO SWRN OK...WHICH IN TURN HAS SUPPORTED INCREASED DIABATIC HEATING AND A NWD MOVEMENT OF THIS WARM FRONT OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS. MOREOVER...THIS INSOLATION IN CONJUNCTION WITH COLD MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER LOW OVER THE TX PNHDL ARE CONTRIBUTING TO STEEPENING LAPSE RATES AND THE DEVELOPMENT OF WEAK CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY FROM SWRN OK INTO WRN TX. LATEST SHORT TERM MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT SURFACE LOW WILL DEVELOP SEWD INTO SWRN OK LATER THIS AFTERNOON...ON CYCLONIC SIDE OF 100 KT MID-LEVEL JET STREAK ROTATING NEWD INTO THE ARKLATEX. CONTINUED HEATING/DESTABILIZATION AHEAD OF THIS LOW...COUPLED WITH INCREASED LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN AN INCREASE IN CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT BY MID AFTERNOON MAINLY ALONG AND TO THE N OF THE RED RIVER. WHILE SOME BACKING OF NEAR SURFACE WINDS WILL LIKELY OCCUR AHEAD OF THIS LOW...IT APPEARS THAT THE RELATIVELY WEAK LOW-LEVEL SHEAR AND MARGINAL LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE /I.E. DEWPOINTS IN THE 40S/ WILL PRECLUDE A MORE SIGNIFICANT LOW-TOPPED SUPERCELL/TORNADO THREAT. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE STEEP LAPSE RATES...POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR ISOLATED LARGE HAIL WITH THE MOST INTENSE STORMS. ..MEAD.. 03/20/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...LUB...AMA... 34970019 35440003 35459927 35209818 34789724 34049698 33699726 33589814 33869923 34289998 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Mar 20 18:47:31 2006 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Mon, 20 Mar 2006 13:47:31 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <20060320185022.27666D4700@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 201848 SWOMCD SPC MCD 201848 MOZ000-IAZ000-KSZ000-NEZ000-SDZ000-COZ000-210015- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0333 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1248 PM CST MON MAR 20 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN CO/NEB/MUCH OF KS/WRN IA/FAR NW MO CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW VALID 201848Z - 210015Z HEAVY SNOW WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTN ACROSS A LARGE PORTION OF THE CNTRL PLAINS. HOURLY RATES OF 1 TO 2 INCHES PER HOUR WILL PERSIST...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER RATES POSSIBLE WITHIN HEAVY MESOSCALE BANDS. LATEST RADAR AND SFC OBSERVATIONS SHOW A PRONOUNCED AREA OF HEAVY SNOW ONGOING FROM THE CO FOOTHILLS TO GLD/MCK/HSI/LNK. THIS AXIS IS ASSOCIATED WITH DEFORMATION ZONE WHICH HAS SET UP ON THE NORTHWEST SIDE OF THE STORM SYSTEM. LATEST AREA PROFILER AND VAD WIND DATA OBSERVE 50-55 KT LOW LEVEL ELY FLOW ACROSS NRN KS/SRN NEB...WHICH IS CONTRIBUTING TO SIGNIFICANT UPSLOPE COMPONENT AND STRONG ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE. THE ZONE OF STRONGEST FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING IS FORECAST TO SHIFT INTO WRN KS/SERN NEB LATER THIS AFTN. CONDITIONS WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE EWD FROM THE FRONT RANGE AS UPPER LOW MOVES EAST OF THE AREA BY MID AFTN. HOWEVER TIGHT SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL RESULT IN STRONG SFC WINDS /15-25 MPH/ WHICH WILL PRODUCE CONSIDERABLE BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW IN ADDITION TO NEAR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS. WARM NOSE EVIDENT IN 12Z SOUNDINGS FROM TOPEKA AND DODGE CITY THIS MORNING WILL COMPLICATE PRECIPITATION TYPE FORECAST. AT 1830Z THE RAIN/SNOW LINE IS SOUTH OF A LINE FROM KANSAS CITY TO GREAT BEND. TEMPS ARE WELL ABOVE FREEZING IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S FROM SCNTRL KS THROUGH IA...WITH RAIN OBSERVED ACROSS CNTRL KS INTO NW MO. NAM POINT FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE MUCH COOLER THAN CURRENTLY OBSERVED...AND INDICATE SNOW ACROSS NW MO THIS AFTN. HOWEVER...RUC FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE SOMEWHAT BETTER WITH REGARD TO THE THERMAL PROFILES...AND SUGGEST MAIN PTYPE WITH BE RAIN...POSSIBLY MIXING WITH SNOW OR SLEET. ..TAYLOR.. 03/20/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...DMX...EAX...FSD...OAX...TOP...ICT...GID...LBF...DDC...GLD...PUB...BOU...CYS... 38789709 38120002 37560177 37740364 40210352 41250315 42340166 42749820 42739614 42449519 38979507  From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Mar 20 20:11:02 2006 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Mon, 20 Mar 2006 15:11:02 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <20060320201353.3D9F7D4700@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 202013 SWOMCD SPC MCD 202012 MSZ000-LAZ000-TXZ000-202145- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0334 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0212 PM CST MON MAR 20 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL AND SRN LA / CNTRL AND SRN MS CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 102... VALID 202012Z - 202145Z THROUGH 22Z...IT APPEARS THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL EXIST ACROSS SRN HALF OF WW AREA...FROM JUST NE OF LCH TO N OF PIB. AS OF 1955Z...REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY INDICATED WIDESPREAD TSTMS ORIENTED WSW TO ENE FROM SWRN LA THROUGH CNTRL MS INTO NRN AL /N OF BHM/. THE MOST INTENSE CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS WERE SHORT LINE SEGMENTS ALONG THE MS RIVER NEAR HEZ AND APPROXIMATELY 35 SW JAN. SYNTHESIS OF LATEST MESOANALYSIS WITH THIS RADAR DATA SUGGESTS THAT THESE STRONGER STORMS ARE LOCATED VERY NEAR OR JUST TO THE N OF A STATIONARY/OUTFLOW COMPOSITE BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM N OF LCH TO N OF PIB. THIS BOUNDARY HAS SHOWN VIRTUALLY NO NWD MOVEMENT OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS. IN FACT...18Z JAN SOUNDING INDICATED THAT LOW-LEVEL INVERSION MAY WELL HAVE DEEPENED OVER CNTRL MS...LARGELY DUE TO THE WIDESPREAD COLD POOL DEVELOPMENT. HOWEVER FARTHER TO THE E OVER SWRN AND W-CNTRL AL...AIR MASS IS SLOWLY MOISTENING/DESTABILIZING NWD. AIR MASS S OF THIS BOUNDARY REMAINS QUITE MOIST THIS AFTERNOON WITH MLCAPES OF AROUND 1000 J/KG /REF. 18Z LIX SOUNDING/. MOREOVER...LOCAL VADS INDICATE THAT AMBIENT ENVIRONMENT REMAINS STRONGLY SHEARED WITH 0-1 KM SRH OF 300-400 M2/S2 AND AROUND 60 KTS OF DEEP-LAYER SHEAR. THEREFORE...IT APPEARS THAT POTENTIAL FOR SUPERCELLS AND ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN QUITE HIGH FOR ANY STORMS THAT CAN BECOME ROOTED IN BOUNDARY-LAYER AND MOVE ALONG THIS BAROCLINIC ZONE. THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY DEVELOP E OF WW 102 LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO EVENING ACROSS SWRN AL AND A WW MAY BECOME NECESSARY. ..MEAD.. 03/20/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MOB...JAN...LIX...LCH...SHV... 31629357 32678876 30878876 29899361 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Mar 20 22:56:07 2006 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Mon, 20 Mar 2006 17:56:07 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <20060320225858.D0393D4249@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 202258 SWOMCD SPC MCD 202258 OKZ000-TXZ000-210030- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0335 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0458 PM CST MON MAR 20 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS NWRN/CENTRAL OK CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 202258Z - 210030Z ISOLATED SMALL SUPERCELLS MAY CONTINUE TO DEVELOP FOR ANOTHER 1-2 HOURS WITHIN NARROW CORRIDOR ALONG WARM FRONTAL ZONE...FROM OKFUSKEE/CREEK COUNTIES NWWD TOWARD AREA JUST S OF END. TSTMS MOVING THROUGH FRONTAL ZONE MAY BRIEFLY PRODUCE A TORNADO...AS WELL AS HAIL NEAR SEVERE LEVELS. WW NOT ANTICIPATED BECAUSE OF TRANSIENT/MRGL NATURE OF SEVERE THREAT. SFC MESOANALYSIS SHOWS FRONTAL ZONE FROM NEAR MCINTOSH/PITTSBURG COUNTY LINE...IN NWRN PORTION WW 104...NWWD ACROSS LOGAN COUNTY THEN WNWWD ACROSS DEWEY COUNTY. SMALL SUPERCELL OVER DEWEY COUNTY ALREADY HAS PRODUCED BRIEF TORNADO. BACKED SFC WINDS ALONG FRONT ENLARGE LOW LEVEL HODOGRAPHS IN REGIME OF STRONG AMBIENT/DEEP-LAYER SHEAR...WITH MODIFIED VWP/PROFILER WINDS YIELDING 0-1 KM SRH 100-200 J/KG. MODIFIED RUC SOUNDINGS SUGGEST MLCAPES UP TO ABOUT 500 J/KG. BUOYANCY IS SUPPORTED BY VERY STEEP LOW-MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES FROM COMBINATION OF SFC HEATING AND COLD AIR ALOFT...AND SHOULD DIMINISH WITHIN NEXT 2 HOURS. MEANWHILE...CONVECTIVE GUSTS NEAR SEVERE LEVELS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE FROM TSTMS MOVING EWD ACROSS S-CENTRAL OK INTO FAVORABLY HEATED AND WELL MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER...AMIDST STRONG MIDLEVEL FLOW. SEVERAL 50-55 KT GUSTS ALREADY HAVE BEEN RECORDED IN MESONET STATIONS AND AT SPS OBSERVING SITE AS CONVECTION PASSED OVHD. THIS ACTIVITY ALSO SHOULD WEAKEN WITH LOSS OF SFC HEATING IN INFLOW LAYER...ACROSS SERN OK. ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN ACROSS REGION WITH INCREASING CLOUD/CONVECTIVE COVERAGE...AND LOSS OF SFC HEATING BY ABOUT 00Z. ..EDWARDS.. 03/20/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...TSA...FWD...OUN... 35419766 35669828 35879874 36159894 36309795 35879666 35399599 34589616 33999684 33899751 33959789 34369772 34859771 35279773 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Mar 20 23:45:20 2006 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Mon, 20 Mar 2006 18:45:20 -0500 Subject: [MCD] {Spam?} SWOMCD Message-ID: <20060320234811.55AC9D45E0@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 202347 SWOMCD SPC MCD 202347 FLZ000-GAZ000-ALZ000-MSZ000-LAZ000-210145- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0336 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0547 PM CST MON MAR 20 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS SRN AL...SRN MS...WRN FL PANHANDLE CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 103... VALID 202347Z - 210145Z THREAT FOR DAMAGING WIND AND A FEW TORNADOES CONTINUES ACROSS REGION ALONG AND SE OF PRIMARY CONVECTIVE BAND -- MOST INTENSE PORTION OF WHICH WAS EVIDENT AT 2330Z FROM WILCOX COUNTY AL SWWD ACROSS PERRY COUNTY MS. CONTINUE WW ALONG/AHEAD OF TSTM LINE. ANOTHER WW IS NECESSARY FOR REMAINDER SRN AL SWD TO GULF COAST. EMBEDDED LEWPS...BOWS AND SUPERCELLS WILL SHIFT EWD TOWARD CORRIDOR FROM MGM-MOB OVER NEXT 1-2 HOURS...IN ENVIRONMENT OF AT LEAST MRGL BUOYANCY AND FAVORABLE SHEAR. SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS WARM FRONT FROM AMG WNWWD THROUGH AUO AREA THEN BECOMING DIFFUSE BENEATH NERN PORTION OF CONVECTIVE PLUME. 50-60 NM WIDE BAND OF RELATIVELY DRY AIR IS EVIDENT S OF THIS WARM FRONT. PARALLEL MOISTURE GRADIENT IS EVIDENT NEAR A VLD-MGM LINE...AND SHOULD SHIFT NWD DURING NEXT 1-2 HOURS TO CATCH THERMAL FRONT. AS THIS OCCURS...AIR MASS ACROSS PORTIONS S-CENTRAL/SERN AL...S OF WW...WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE WITH ACTIVITY MOVING INTO AREA FROM W. AIR MASS FROM MOISTURE GRADIENT SWD TO AL/FL PANHANDLE COAST IS CHARACTERIZED BY SFC DEW POINTS LOW-MID 60S F...SUPPORTING MLCAPES 500-800 J/KG BASED ON MODIFIED 12Z RAOBS AND RUC SOUNDINGS. MOB VWP DATA SHOWS 50-55 KT LLJ JUST 1 KM AGL...AIDING BOTH LOW LEVEL HODOGRAPHS AND STORM-RELATIVE INFLOW. ..EDWARDS.. 03/20/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...FFC...TAE...BMX...MOB...JAN...LIX... 30318908 30448985 30798996 31268880 31808784 32408682 32928629 32908588 32698538 32038493 31298471 30838463 30148514 29668529 29678535 29788542 29868540 29918540 30018553 30278602 30398657 30348707 30258774 30238824 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Mar 20 23:47:32 2006 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Mon, 20 Mar 2006 18:47:32 -0500 Subject: [MCD] {Spam?} SWOMCD Message-ID: <20060320235024.EBF0FD4249@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 202349 SWOMCD SPC MCD 202349 COR FLZ000-GAZ000-ALZ000-MSZ000-LAZ000-210145- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0336 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0549 PM CST MON MAR 20 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS SRN AL...SRN MS...WRN FL PANHANDLE...SWRN GA CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 103... VALID 202349Z - 210145Z CORRECTED FOR HEADER THREAT FOR DAMAGING WIND AND A FEW TORNADOES CONTINUES ACROSS REGION ALONG AND SE OF PRIMARY CONVECTIVE BAND -- MOST INTENSE PORTION OF WHICH WAS EVIDENT AT 2330Z FROM WILCOX COUNTY AL SWWD ACROSS PERRY COUNTY MS. CONTINUE WW ALONG/AHEAD OF TSTM LINE. ANOTHER WW IS NECESSARY FOR REMAINDER SRN AL SWD TO GULF COAST. EMBEDDED LEWPS...BOWS AND SUPERCELLS WILL SHIFT EWD TOWARD CORRIDOR FROM MGM-MOB OVER NEXT 1-2 HOURS...IN ENVIRONMENT OF AT LEAST MRGL BUOYANCY AND FAVORABLE SHEAR. SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS WARM FRONT FROM AMG WNWWD THROUGH AUO AREA THEN BECOMING DIFFUSE BENEATH NERN PORTION OF CONVECTIVE PLUME. 50-60 NM WIDE BAND OF RELATIVELY DRY AIR IS EVIDENT S OF THIS WARM FRONT. PARALLEL MOISTURE GRADIENT IS EVIDENT NEAR A VLD-MGM LINE...AND SHOULD SHIFT NWD DURING NEXT 1-2 HOURS TO CATCH THERMAL FRONT. AS THIS OCCURS...AIR MASS ACROSS PORTIONS S-CENTRAL/SERN AL...S OF WW...WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE WITH ACTIVITY MOVING INTO AREA FROM W. AIR MASS FROM MOISTURE GRADIENT SWD TO AL/FL PANHANDLE COAST IS CHARACTERIZED BY SFC DEW POINTS LOW-MID 60S F...SUPPORTING MLCAPES 500-800 J/KG BASED ON MODIFIED 12Z RAOBS AND RUC SOUNDINGS. MOB VWP DATA SHOWS 50-55 KT LLJ JUST 1 KM AGL...AIDING BOTH LOW LEVEL HODOGRAPHS AND STORM-RELATIVE INFLOW. ..EDWARDS.. 03/20/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...FFC...TAE...BMX...MOB...JAN...LIX... 30318908 30448985 30798996 31268880 31808784 32408682 32928629 32908588 32698538 32038493 31298471 30838463 30148514 29668529 29678535 29788542 29868540 29918540 30018553 30278602 30398657 30348707 30258774 30238824 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Mar 21 00:31:16 2006 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Mon, 20 Mar 2006 19:31:16 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <20060321003410.701C3D4249@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 210033 SWOMCD SPC MCD 210032 ARZ000-OKZ000-TXZ000-210200- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0337 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0632 PM CST MON MAR 20 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS SERN OK AND EXTREME W-CENTRAL/SWRN AR CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 104... VALID 210032Z - 210200Z OVERALL SEVERE POTENTIAL APPEARS TO BE DIMINISHING ACROSS WW AREA...AND THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH DUSK. INITIAL LINE OF TSTMS HAS MOVED NEWD OVER PROGRESSIVELY DEEPER STABLE LAYER NE OF WARM FRONT. SEVERE POTENTIAL SHOULD CONTINUE TO DIMINISH WITH THIS ACTIVITY AS IT MOVES ACROSS WRN AR...BUT ISOLATED STRONG GUSTS AND HAIL NEAR SEVERE LEVELS MAY OCCUR FOR ANOTHER 1-2 HOURS. MEANWHILE...HIGH-BASED BAND OF CONVECTION -- INCLUDING INTERMITTENT TSTMS -- IS MOVING EWD 40-50 KT INTO WRN PORTIONS WW. ALTHOUGH THIS ACTIVITY HAS PRODUCED SEVERE GUSTS ACROSS PORTIONS NW TX AND SWRN/S-CENTRAL OK...OVERALL WEAKENING TREND HAS BEEN NOTED. THIS MAY BE RELATED TO DIABATIC SFC COOLING...AND TO INGESTION OF MORE STABLE INFLOW AIR ORIGINATING FROM INITIAL CONVECTION OVER SERN OK. RELATIVELY DRY SUBCLOUD LAYER AND STRONG DEEP-LAYER FLOW MAY CONTRIBUTE TO A FEW ADDITIONAL GUSTS NEAR SEVERE LEVELS. ..EDWARDS.. 03/21/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LZK...SHV...TSA...FWD...OUN... 33809620 35589615 35569405 33789400 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Mar 21 01:30:32 2006 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Mon, 20 Mar 2006 20:30:32 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <20060321013325.30EA0D45E0@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 210132 SWOMCD SPC MCD 210131 ILZ000-IAZ000-MOZ000-KSZ000-NEZ000-210700- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0338 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0731 PM CST MON MAR 20 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL AND ERN NEB/IA/NRN MO/WRN IL CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW VALID 210131Z - 210700Z ...HEAVIEST SNOW RATES THIS EVENING WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH MID LEVEL DEFORMATION BAND WHICH IS EXPECTED TO EXTEND FROM ERN NEB/SRN IA INTO WRN IL LATER THIS EVENING... THE MOST INTENSE SNOW FOR THE LAST FEW HOURS HAS BEEN OCCURRING ACROSS WRN PORTIONS OF KS AND MUCH OF NEB /ROUGHLY FROM GLD TO LNK/. EXAMINATION OF 6HR-RADAR LOOPS SUGGEST THE HEAVIEST SNOW OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS WILL EXTEND FROM CNTRL NEB INTO SRN IA. CLOSED UPPER LOW NOW ACROSS WRN KS WILL MOVE EWD ACROSS KS WITH GREATEST VORTICITY ADVECTION FOCUSED ACROSS NRN MO/SRN IA INTO IL BY 06Z. UPPER FLOW IS COMPLICATED BY LEAD SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW MOVING THROUGH ERN OK. STRONG ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH MID LEVEL FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING IS FORECAST TO BE MAINLY OVER IA INTO IL OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...AND THIS SEEMS TO AGREE WITH RADAR TRENDS. 00Z SOUNDINGS FROM TOPEKA INDICATE 2-3 DEGREES OF COOLING HAS TAKEN PLACE NEAR 700 MB...BUT 00Z SOUNDING FROM SPRINGFIELD HAS A WARM INVERSION WITH +7C NEAR 850MB...SO PTYPE IS STILL PROBLEMATIC. ETA KF FORECAST SOUNDINGS FAVOR RAIN ACROSS ALL BUT FAR NRN MO...AND EVEN THOUGH THERE MAY BE A RAIN/SNOW MIX AS FAR SOUTH AS THE KC METRO...IT WOULD APPEAR THE HEAVIEST SNOW WILL REMAIN TO THE NORTH. ACROSS IA AND WRN IL...DRY AIR WILL INITIALLY LIMIT PCPN REACHING THE GROUND AS DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE 20S. BUT...INCREASING LIFT AND A DEEP SATURATED DENDRITIC LAYER SHOULD SUPPORT AN AREA OF HEAVY SNOW DEVELOPING THIS EVENING. ..TAYLOR.. 03/21/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...ILX...LSX...DVN...DMX...EAX...FSD...OAX...TOP...GID...LBF... 39849307 39679519 40139948 40929991 42289955 42229484 41879023 40119055 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Mar 21 02:11:49 2006 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Mon, 20 Mar 2006 21:11:49 -0500 Subject: [MCD] {Spam?} SWOMCD Message-ID: <20060321021440.54519D4703@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 210213 SWOMCD SPC MCD 210212 GAZ000-FLZ000-ALZ000-210415- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0339 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0812 PM CST MON MAR 20 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...SRN AL...PORTIONS FL PANHANDLE...SWRN/S-CENTRAL GA CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 103...105... VALID 210212Z - 210415Z CONTINUE WW 105 ALONG/AHEAD OF BAND OF TSTMS NOW EVIDENT FROM LGC AREA SWWD TO ABOUT 80 NM NE MOB. ANOTHER WW MAY BE REQUIRED ACROSS PORTIONS SRN GA -- E OF WW 105...NEAR AND S OF WARM FRONT. BOTH WWS MAY BE CLEARED AS SFC-BASED CONVECTION EXITS COUNTIES WITHIN...MINIMIZING POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL DAMAGING WIND OR TORNADOES. SHARPLY DEFINED SFC WARM FRONT IS ANALYZED AT 02Z FROM NEAR AYS NWWD TO ROUGHLY 25 N ABY...15 SW CSG...MEETING OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ABOUT 10 S AUO. BOWS WILL MOVE OVER WARM FRONT...THEN 20-30 NM OF SHALLOW STABLE AIR THAT MAY BE PENETRABLE BY SEVERE GUSTS...THEN PROGRESSIVELY DEEPER STABLE LAYER INTO CENTRAL GA. SEVERE POTENTIAL WILL THEREFORE DIMINISH WITH NEWD DISTANCE FROM WARM FRONT. SEVERE CONVECTIVE BAND CONTINUES TO SHIFT SLOWLY SEWD ACROSS SRN AL AND SWRN GA W OF WARM FRONT...WHILE INDIVIDUAL EMBEDDED BOW ECHOES MOVE ENE AT UP TO 50 KT. MEASURED/CONFIRMED GUSTS TO 74 KT STRUCK AUO AT 0135Z FROM BOW THAT IS CROSSING GA BORDER. ADDITIONAL SEVERE GUSTS ARE LIKELY WITH LARGER BOW AND LINE SEGMENT THAT WILL MOVE ACROSS PORTIONS BARBOUR/RUSSELL COUNTIES AL...AND PORTIONS MUSCOGEE/CHATTAHOOCHEE/STEWART/TALBOT/MARION/WEBSTER COUNTIES GA WITHIN NEXT 1-2 HOURS. ISOLATED...MRGLLY SEVERE HAIL ALSO HAS BEEN REPORTED WITH THIS ACTIVITY IN PAST 1-2 HOURS. MESOCIRCULATIONS WITHIN BOW/LEWP FEATURES WILL POSE THREAT FOR TORNADOES AS WELL. 00Z TLH RAOB AND LATEST VWP FROM SERN AL SHOW FAVORABLE SHEAR PROFILES CONTINUING...WITH 0-1 KM SRH OVER 500 J/KG AND 70-80 KT OF -6 KM SHEAR AT EOX RADAR SITE. STABLE LAYERS AROUND 700 MB -- PER TLH RAOB -- LIMIT BUOYANCY BUT CAN BE OVERCOME BY STRONG CONVECTIVE SCALE FORCING ABOVE LEADING EDGE OF EXISTING LINE SEGMENTS AND BOWS. ..EDWARDS.. 03/21/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...JAX...FFC...TAE...BMX...MOB... 31138823 31918744 32358581 32668508 32768468 32718402 32648366 32368312 31948268 31428253 30928269 30738362 30578458 30018508 29658528 29668538 29868531 30048559 30278613 30418678 30338719 30258784 30248823 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Mar 21 04:08:01 2006 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Mon, 20 Mar 2006 23:08:01 -0500 Subject: [MCD] {Spam?} SWOMCD Message-ID: <20060321041052.BD34ED45E0@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 210410 SWOMCD SPC MCD 210409 GAZ000-FLZ000-ALZ000-210615- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0340 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1009 PM CST MON MAR 20 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS CENTRAL/SRN GA...CENTRAL/SRN AL...FL PANHANDLE. CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 105... VALID 210409Z - 210615Z TORNADO POTENTIAL APPEARS TO BE DIMINISHING ATTM. FORMERLY SEVERE BOW ECHO...WHICH PRODUCED MEASURED 51 KT GUST AT LSF AT 0233Z...HAS MOVED INTO STABLE AIR ON NE SIDE OF WARM FRONT AND WEAKENED CONSIDERABLY. OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ASSOCIATED WITH ERN AL/WRN GA CONVECTION IS MOVING SEWD ABOUT 25 KT ACROSS S-CENTRAL/SWRN GA ON BOTH SIDES OF WARM FRONT. GIVEN COOLING INFLOW LAYER AND ORIENTATION OF THIS BOUNDARY WITH RESPECT TO MEAN FLOW...PRIND ADDITIONAL TSTMS FORMING ALONG BOUNDARY SHOULD MOVE OVER MORE STABLE AIR SOON THEREAFTER. CLUSTER OF TSTMS NOW OVER CENTRAL AL IS SUPPORTED BY ELEVATED WAA REGIME BEHIND INITIAL CONVECTIVE BAND...WITH MODIFIED MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOWING MUCAPES 500-1000 J/KG BASED NEAR 850 MB. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN ROOTED ABOVE SFC AS IT MOVES ENEWD TOWARD WRN/CENTRAL GA THROUGH AT LEAST 06Z...WITH BACKBUILDING PSBL TOWARD MS/AL BORDER. MOST VIGOROUS EMBEDDED CELLS MAY PRODUCE MRGLLY SVR HAIL AND STRONG GUSTS...AMIDST 50-60 KT EFFECTIVE SHEAR. ..EDWARDS.. 03/21/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...JAX...FFC...TAE...BMX...MOB... 31878828 32998810 33358543 33218444 32898397 32768356 32598334 32348325 31948298 31578282 31178291 30818372 30548411 30268461 29658528 29668538 29738552 30048559 30668617 31238671 31318711 31208747 31398779 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Mar 21 14:52:15 2006 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Tue, 21 Mar 2006 09:52:15 -0500 Subject: [MCD] {Spam?} SWOMCD Message-ID: <20060321145501.87D8ED4307@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 211454 SWOMCD SPC MCD 211453 FLZ000-GAZ000-211630- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0345 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0853 AM CST TUE MAR 21 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...NERN FL CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 211453Z - 211630Z POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS AND PERHAPS A BRIEF TORNADO WILL EXIST THROUGH 17Z OVER FAR NERN FL. GIVEN THE SMALL SPATIAL AND TEMPORAL NATURE OF THIS THREAT...A WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED. AS OF 1448Z...JAX RADAR IMAGERY SHOWED A STRONG TO POTENTIALLY SEVERE TSTM OVER COLUMBIA AND BAKER COUNTIES MOVING 260/35-40 KTS. THIS STORM HAS EXHIBITED SOME MID-LEVEL ROTATION AS IT MOVES THROUGH AN ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY MLCAPES OF 500 J/KG /PER MODIFICATION OF 12Z JAX SOUNDING/ AND RELATIVELY STRONG LOW AND DEEP-LAYER SHEAR. EXTRAPOLATION OF CURRENT MOTION WILL TAKE THIS STORM RELATIVELY CLOSE TO JAX BETWEEN 1530 AND 1600Z...PRIOR TO MOVING OFF THE COAST. GIVEN THAT CYCLOGENESIS IS IN PROGRESS OFF THE SC COAST...AND THAT LOW-LEVEL WINDS WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY VEERED WITH TIME...CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT ADDITIONAL STORMS OVER THE FL BIG BEND WILL LIKELY REMAIN BELOW SEVERE LIMITS OWING TO THE WEAKENING LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE. ..MEAD.. 03/21/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...JAX... 30318154 29978245 29928286 30508309 30798282 30868153 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat Mar 25 18:37:26 2006 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Sat, 25 Mar 2006 13:37:26 -0500 Subject: [MCD] {Spam?} SWOMCD Message-ID: <20060325183952.87405D4645@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 251839 SWOMCD SPC MCD 251839 IDZ000-NVZ000-ORZ000-252045- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0346 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1239 PM CST SAT MAR 25 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...SERN OR...SWRN ID...NRN NV CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 251839Z - 252045Z ...STRONG WINDS MAY ACCOMPANY THUNDERSTORMS ALONG ADVANCING COLD FRONT... LATEST DIAGNOSTIC DATA CONFIRMS EWD SHIFT OF FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE SIERRAS INTO SERN OR/WRN NV WITH FOCUSED PRESSURE FALLS NOW EXTENDING INTO SRN ID/NRN NV. LOWEST 3KM/BOUNDARY LAYER LAPSE RATES CONTINUE TO STEEPEN AND APPEAR MOSTLY RESPONSIBLE FOR WHAT MEAGER INSTABILITY EXISTS AHEAD OF COLD FRONT GIVEN MARGINAL MOISTURE. IT APPEARS CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THIS REGION AS VERY COLD UPPER TROUGH MOVES INLAND. FORECAST PROFILES BECOME INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE FOR DAMAGING WINDS WITH STRONGER THUNDERSTORM DOWNDRAFTS...ESPECIALLY AS LARGER SCALE SWLY FLOW DEEPENS AND INTENSIFIES IN THE WAKE OF THE WIND SHIFT. ..DARROW.. 03/25/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...BOI...LKN...REV... 42801847 43161707 43031489 41961481 41021696 40171860 41891884 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat Mar 25 23:13:59 2006 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Sat, 25 Mar 2006 18:13:59 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <20060325231626.0ECDBD49BE@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 252315 SWOMCD SPC MCD 252315 IDZ000-UTZ000-NVZ000-260045- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0347 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0515 PM CST SAT MAR 25 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...SRN ID...NRN NV...NWRN UT CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 106... VALID 252315Z - 260045Z STRONG TO SEVERE WIND GUSTS ARE STILL POSSIBLE AS BROKEN CONVECTIVE LINE MOVES INTO ERN PORTIONS OF WW 106. CONVECTIVE LINE WAS MOVING EAST AT AROUND 40KT AND WAS CURRENTLY SITUATED FROM 40 NNE BOI TO 45 ENE OWY TO EKO TO 40 NW U31. ONLY SPORADIC CG LIGHTNING ACTIVITY ALONG THE LINE WAS EVIDENCE OF VERY LIMITED INSTABILITY. NONETHELESS...FOCUSED ASCENT ALONG ADVANCING LARGER SCALE FRONTAL ZONE...AND STRONG KINEMATICS WITH NEARLY 60KT OF FLOW AT 700MB...SHOULD PARTIALLY OFFSET LIMITED INSTABILITY. AS LOW-TOPPED CONVECTION MOVES EAST ACROSS WARM/DRY BOUNDARY LAYER A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE CONVECTIVE DOWNDRAFTS REMAIN POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON. ACTIVITY WILL MOVE INTO PARTS OF NWRN UT THROUGH 01Z BUT LATEST TRENDS SUGGEST THAT ANOTHER WATCH MAY NOT BE NECESSARY. ..CARBIN.. 03/25/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...SLC...PIH...BOI...LKN...REV... 40111432 39071688 40031771 42621645 43931664 44211657 44371515 44041157 41991216 41961394 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri Mar 31 01:46:24 2006 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Thu, 30 Mar 2006 20:46:24 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 310148 SWOMCD SPC MCD 310148 ARZ000-MOZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-TXZ000-310345- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0370 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0748 PM CST THU MAR 30 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN/SRN OK...NWRN AR...NCENTRAL/NERN TX CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 112... VALID 310148Z - 310345Z SVR TSTMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS MUCH OF WW 112 THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL HRS. MAIN SVR THREATS WILL BE CONCENTRATED OVER ECENTRAL OK/NWRN AR...AND ALONG THE RED RIVER VALLEY OF SRN OK/NRN TX. MAIN SVR THREAT SHOULD BE LARGE HAIL...WITH ISOLATED TORNADOES POSSIBLE. PERSISTENT SUPERCELL TSTM OVER HASKELL COUNTY WILL MOVE EWD AROUND 30 KTS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF WW 112 /NWRN AR/ THROUGH 04Z. STG LOW LEVEL SHEAR WILL AID IN THE POTENTIAL FOR AN ISOLATED TORNADO OR TWO. RECENT OBS OVER WRN/CENTRAL AR INDICATE MUCH LESS INSTABILITY. GIVEN CURRENT STORM/CLUSTER MOTION...THIS CONVECTIVE CLUSTER MAY OUTRUN MAIN INSTABILITY AXIS AND BEGIN TO WEAKEN AFTER 04Z. CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED AND AREAS EAST OF WW 112 IN WRN/CENTRAL AR MAY NEED AN ADDITIONAL WW BEFORE 06Z. FURTHER SOUTH...CONVECTIVE CLUSTER OVER THE RED RIVER VALLEY WILL CONTINUE TO MAINTAIN A SVR HAIL/WIND THREAT AS STRONG LOW LEVEL JET SUPPORT STG INFLOW. AGAIN STG LOW LEVEL SHEAR MAY SUPPORT AN ISOLATED TORNADO WITH THIS ACTIVITY OVER THE NEXT FEW HRS. FINALLY...THE CONVECTIVE LINE ORIENTED ALONG THE COLD FRONT OVER SERN KS/NERN OK WILL POSE A THREAT FOR ISOLATED LARGE HAIL/DMGG WINDS. UNIDIRECTIONAL SHEAR PROFILES AND LINEAR NATURE SUGGEST A LIMITED TORNADO THREAT AHEAD OF THIS ACTIVITY. ..CROSBIE.. 03/31/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LZK...SGF...SHV...TSA...ICT...FWD...OUN... 37519551 36839639 35729646 34899643 34349693 33869776 33329817 32939709 32989537 33729522 34789453 35759363 36489350 36499454 37009480 37219496 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri Mar 31 01:55:01 2006 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Thu, 30 Mar 2006 20:55:01 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 310157 SWOMCD SPC MCD 310157 ILZ000-MOZ000-IAZ000-310300- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0371 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0757 PM CST THU MAR 30 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN MO/WRN IL* CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 310157Z - 310300Z SEVERE THREAT WILL SPREAD EWD WITH TIME INTO NERN AND E CENTRAL MO/W CENTRAL IL. NEW WW WILL BE ISSUED SHORTLY. UPPER LOW CONTINUES MOVING ENEWD ACROSS THE MID MO VALLEY ATTM...ACCOMPANIED BY 90 KT MID-LEVEL JET STREAK. BOUNDARY LAYER AIRMASS APPEARS TO BE SUFFICIENTLY MOIST/UNSTABLE TO SUPPORT AN EWD CONTINUATION OF ONGOING CONVECTION. WITH INSTABILITY LIKELY SUFFICIENT FOR -- AND SHEAR QUITE FAVORABLE FOR -- DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL...NEW WW WILL BE ISSUED ACROSS PARTS OF ERN MO INTO W CENTRAL IL. ..GOSS.. 03/31/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...PAH...ILX...LSX...DVN...SGF...EAX... 40619027 39718956 37848979 37339191 38109205 40479312 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri Mar 31 02:27:26 2006 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Thu, 30 Mar 2006 21:27:26 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 310230 SWOMCD SPC MCD 310229 MOZ000-ARZ000-IAZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-310400- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0372 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0829 PM CST THU MAR 30 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...WRN MO CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 111... VALID 310229Z - 310400Z THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER CONTINUES ACROSS VALID PORTIONS OF WW. LATEST RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDING FROM N CENTRAL MO SWWD INTO SERN KS AHEAD OF FRONT...WITH ADDITIONAL/MORE SCATTERED STORMS E OF THIS LINE OVER ERN MO. ISOLATED STORMS ALSO CONTINUE ACROSS PARTS OF NWRN MO AND INTO SRN IA JUST AHEAD OF MAIN UPPER CIRCULATION. THOUGH INSTABILITY REMAINS MARGINAL ACROSS MUCH OF MO /MEAN-LAYER CAPE AROUND 500 J/KG/...DEEP-LAYER WIND FIELD REMAINS QUITE STRONG AS 80 KT MID-LEVEL JET STREAK CONTINUES SHIFTING ACROSS MO SE OF MAIN UPPER CIRCULATION. THERFORE...EXPECT THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS TO CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. WITH WW SCHEDULED TO EXPIRE AT 31/04Z...A NEW WW MAY BE REQUIRED ACROSS PORTIONS OF SRN MO. ..GOSS.. 03/31/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LSX...LZK...SGF...DMX...EAX...TSA... 39269404 40499436 41009382 40729343 36539163 36439460 37889492 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri Mar 31 05:06:15 2006 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Fri, 31 Mar 2006 00:06:15 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 310508 SWOMCD SPC MCD 310508 ILZ000-IAZ000-310615- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0373 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1108 PM CST THU MAR 30 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN IA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 113... VALID 310508Z - 310615Z SEVERE THREAT CONTINUES TO DIMINISH/SHIFT E OF WW. WATCH WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AS SCHEDULED AT 31/06Z. CONVECTION CONTINUES TO MOVE E OF THE MS RIVER/OUT OF WW 113. WITH CENTER OF UPPER CIRCULATION NOW MOVING NEWD ACROSS WRN IA...STRONGER CONVECTION SHOULD CONTINUE SHIFTING INTO NWRN IL. THEREFORE...WW WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT THE TOP OF THE HOUR. ..GOSS.. 03/31/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...ILX...DVN... 40679121 41989131 42018999 40689047 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri Mar 31 05:32:09 2006 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Fri, 31 Mar 2006 00:32:09 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 310534 SWOMCD SPC MCD 310534 ARZ000-OKZ000-TXZ000-310600- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0374 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1134 PM CST THU MAR 30 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN OK/NWRN AR/NERN TX CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 112... VALID 310534Z - 310600Z SEVERE THREAT CONTINUES TO DIMINISH ACROSS MOST OF WW AREA...THOUGH PERSISTENT CONVECTION ALONG THE RED RIVER OVER SERN OK/NERN TX MAY LINGER BEYOND 31/06Z. TWO CLUSTERS OF STRONG/SEVERE STORMS REMAIN ACROSS WW ATTM -- 0NE ACROSS NWRN AR AND THE OTHER OVER SERN OK/NERN TX. STORMS OVER NWRN AR CONTINUE MOVING EWD...AND SHOULD MOVE OUT OF WW 112 INTO WW 115 BY 31/06Z. MEANWHILE...CLUSTER OF STORMS ALONG THE RED RIVER HAS PERSISTED FOR SEVERAL HOURS -- APPARENTLY WITHIN AREA OF WARM ADVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH LOW-LEVEL JET. THOUGH LONG TERM TREND WITH RESPECT TO CONVECTIVE INTENSITY SHOULD BE DOWNWARD AS LOW-LEVEL JET VEERS/MOVES EWD AHEAD OF PROGRESSING UPPER SYSTEM...SEVERE THREAT MAY LINGER OVER A SMALL AREA FOR A COUPLE MORE HOURS. WW MAY BE EXTENDED LOCALLY FOR A COUPLE OF HOURS ACROSS THIS AREA...BUT OTHERWISE WW WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AS SCHEDULED AT 31/06Z. ..GOSS.. 03/31/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LZK...SHV...TSA...FWD...OUN... 36329314 34859412 33399551 33519702 34249643 34859497 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri Mar 31 06:55:41 2006 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Fri, 31 Mar 2006 01:55:41 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 310658 SWOMCD SPC MCD 310658 INZ000-ILZ000-MOZ000-310830- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0375 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1258 AM CST FRI MAR 31 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...ECNTRL MO...CNTRL/SRN/ERN IL AND WRN IND CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 310658Z - 310830Z NARROW STRONG TSTM LINE SEGMENTS CONTINUE TO TRANSLATE ENEWD AT AROUND 40 KTS FROM THE KSTL AREA NEWD INTO CNTRL IL...ALONG THE NOSE OF 80+ KT H5 SPEED MAX. TSTMS SHOULD BE MAINTAINED EWD INTO PORTIONS OF IND THROUGH THE MORNING AS STRONG UVV TRANSLATES EWD. THOUGH THE INSTABILITY GRADIENT LIES ALONG/W OF THE MS RVR...STRONG SWLY H85 WINDS SEEM TO BE ADVECTING LOW-LEVEL MSTR NWD AHEAD OF THE STORMS...RESULTING IN MARGINAL DESTABILIZATION. EVENTUALLY...TSTMS SHOULD OUT PACE THIS DESTABILIZATION PROCESS AND RESULT IN WEAKENING STORMS. MOREOVER...TSTMS SHOULD CONTINUE TO BECOME ROOTED JUST ABOVE THE BOUNDARY LAYER...LESSENING THE RISK OF DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. SO...DESPITE THE VERY IMPRESSIVE KINEMATICS IN PLACE...THE SEVERE THREAT SHOULD DIMINISH AS THE STORMS MOVE INTO ERN IL AND WRN IND THE NEXT FEW HOURS. ..RACY.. 03/31/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...IWX...IND...PAH...LOT...ILX...LSX...DVN... 38709072 39758984 41048939 41398880 41498742 40918635 39748612 38788676 38168767 37618951 37779101 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri Mar 31 07:11:04 2006 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Fri, 31 Mar 2006 02:11:04 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 310713 SWOMCD SPC MCD 310713 MOZ000-ARZ000-310815- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0376 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0113 AM CST FRI MAR 31 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...SRN MO...NRN AR CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 310713Z - 310815Z STRONG H5 JET OF 80+ KTS CONTINUES TO TRANSLATE NEWD INTO THE MIDWEST WITH ATTENDANT LLJ SHIFTING NEWD WITH TIME. AS SUCH...TSTMS ACROSS SRN MO AND NRN AR HAVE CONTINUED TO WEAKEN...WITH THE TORNADO THREAT DIMINISHING. STRONGEST INSTABILITY REMAINS WELL UPSTREAM ACROSS SERN OK AND NRN TX WHERE ONGOING TSTM CLUSTER MAY PERCOLATE MOST OF THE MORNING. FARTHER N...HOWEVER...THERE DOES NOT SEEM MUCH SUPPORT THE REDEVELOPMENT OF DEEP MOIST CONVECTION. AS A RESULT...CURRENT TORNADO WATCH COULD BE CANCELLED EARLY. ..RACY.. 03/31/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...PAH...MEG...LSX...LZK...SGF...TSA... 36449376 37349231 37519079 37068967 35899046 35149238 35259424 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri Mar 31 18:54:46 2006 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Fri, 31 Mar 2006 13:54:46 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 311857 SWOMCD SPC MCD 311857 MIZ000-OHZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-312100- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0377 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1257 PM CST FRI MAR 31 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF SRN MI...MUCH OF IND...INTO E CNTRL/SRN IL CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 311857Z - 312100Z AREA IS BEING MONITORED FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF A WW. DRY SLOT WRAPPING INTO CYCLONE OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY IS ALLOWING FOR AXIS OF STRONG SURFACE HEATING...EAST OF THE OZARK PLATEAU INTO PARTS OF THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION. MORE SPECIFICALLY...THERMAL RIDGE AXIS CURRENTLY EXTENDS ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL ILLINOIS INTO NORTH INDIANA...WITH MOISTURE RETURN OCCURRING TO THE EAST...ON SOUTHERLY FLOW OUT OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. NARROW TONGUE OF LOWER 60S DEW POINTS HAS RECENTLY SURGED THROUGH SOUTHERN ILLINOIS AND LIKELY WILL CONTINUE NORTHWARD THROUGH WESTERN INTO NORTHERN INDIANA BY LATE AFTERNOON. DRY LINE STRUCTURE IS EXPECTED TO SET UP BY AROUND 21Z...PROVIDING A FOCUS FOR VIGOROUS CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT...BEFORE UPSTREAM COLD FRONT ADVANCES INTO REGION LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AS INCREASING COOL/CYCLONIC MID-LEVEL FLOW ALSO CONTRIBUTES TO WEAKENING INHIBITION...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INITIATE LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THIS SEEMS MOST LIKELY NORTH OF TERRA HAUTE INTO THE FORT WAYNE AREA...POSSIBLE AS EARLY AS 21Z...BEFORE ACTIVITY EVENTUALLY DEVELOPS SOUTHWARD TOWARD AREAS OF SOUTHERN ILLINOIS AROUND MT.VERNON. GIVEN FAVORABLE CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY ...AND MIXED LAYER CAPE UP TO 1000 J/KG...SHEAR BENEATH 50 TO 70 KT CYCLONIC MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELLS. DESPITE NEAR UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW...LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPHS WILL BE LARGE BENEATH 50 TO 60 KT 850 JET...AND ISOLATED TORNADOES APPEAR POSSIBLE IN ADDITION TO RISK FOR LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS. ..KERR.. 03/31/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...ILN...DTX...LMK...IWX...GRR...IND...PAH...ILX... 41498596 42588468 42398381 40638481 39428601 38668647 38058728 37838847 37998905 38598856 39828763 40198722 40918656 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri Mar 31 19:56:01 2006 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Fri, 31 Mar 2006 14:56:01 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 311958 SWOMCD SPC MCD 311958 ALZ000-TNZ000-KYZ000-MSZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-LAZ000-312130- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0378 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0158 PM CST FRI MAR 31 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...MUCH OF THE LOWER MS VALLEY REGION CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 311958Z - 312130Z STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE OVER A BROAD ZONE FROM AR AND LA EWD INTO MS/AL/TN/KY. A FEW SEVERE STORMS ARE LIKELY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NRN MS/AL AND WRN TN. THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE MARGINALLY SVR HAIL AND PERHAPS AN ISOLATED/BRIEF TORNADO. A WW IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. INSTABILITY IS SLOWLY INCREASING AS MID 60S DEWPOINTS ADVECT NEWD OUT OF ERN TX/LA...WITHIN DEEP TROPOSPHERIC WARM ADVECTION REGIME IN WAKE OF STRONG TROUGH TO THE NORTH. MID TO UPPER LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE MODEST AT BEST AT 6.0-6.5 C/KM DUE TO WARMING ALOFT...THUS HAIL PROBABILITIES WILL BE LOWERED IN 20Z OUTLOOK. HOWEVER...WIND SHEAR PROFILES REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR ORGANIZED STORMS WITH EFFECTIVE DEEP LAYER SHEAR VECTORS OVER 50 KT. THEREFORE MARGINALLY SVR HAIL OR WIND MAY OCCUR. A BRIEF/ISOLATED TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT ESPECIALLY OVER NERN MS/NWRN AL AND SWRN MIDDLE TN WHERE MODERATE LOW LEVEL SHEAR REMAINS. ..JEWELL.. 03/31/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...OHX...BMX...HUN...MOB...PAH...MEG...JAN...LZK...SHV... 32839214 34229245 36139292 36439067 37078845 37028810 36378719 34218672 32018859 31758909 31719055 32019189 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri Mar 31 22:00:53 2006 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Fri, 31 Mar 2006 17:00:53 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 312203 SWOMCD SPC MCD 312203 MIZ000-OHZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-312300- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0380 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0403 PM CST FRI MAR 31 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...SE LWR MI CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 117...118... VALID 312203Z - 312300Z CONTINUE WW. CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IS ONGOING ACROSS PARTS OF LOWER MICHIGAN... SUPPORTED BY STRONGER FORCING DOWNSTREAM OF CLOSED LOW WHICH IS SHIFTING SLOWLY EASTWARD INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION. LEADING EDGE OF STRONGER MID-LEVEL COOLING/LIFT TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THIS FEATURE IS NOW BEGINNING TO OVERSPREAD PRE-FRONTAL THERMAL RIDGE AXIS ACROSS SOUTHERN/EASTERN ILLINOIS THROUGH NORTHERN INDIANA. INHIBITION IS WEAKENING ACROSS THIS REGION...AND SCATTERED VIGOROUS CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO. MIXED LAYER CAPE APPROACHING 1000 J/KG WILL SUPPORT ISOLATED SUPERCELLS IN FAVORABLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT... PARTICULARLY NEAR THE TERRE HAUTE AREA BY 00Z. ..KERR.. 03/31/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...ILN...DTX...IWX...GRR...IND...PAH...ILX... 38788800 39558770 40168728 40568665 40948629 41558566 42268484 42698465 42908435 42638363 41838387 41088422 40348516 39348657 38738701 38518775 WWWW