[MCD] SWOMCD

Wed Jun 28 17:00:47 UTC 2006

ACUS11 KWNS 281702
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 281701 
NYZ000-PAZ000-WVZ000-OHZ000-281900-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1365
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1201 PM CDT WED JUN 28 2006

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN OH...WRN PA...WRN NY

CONCERNING...CONVECTIVE TRENDS 

VALID 281701Z - 281900Z

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP FROM ERN OH INTO
PORTIONS OF UPSTATE NY...

STRONG BOUNDARY LAYER HEATING HAS STEEPENED LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE OH VALLEY WHERE VALUES ARE NOW APPROACHING
8C/KM TO THE LEE OF LAKE ERIE. THIS IS EVIDENT BY RAPID EXPANSION
OF CU FIELD AND INCREASING THUNDERSTORMS OVER ERN OH.  DEEP SWLY
FLOW WILL LIMIT LAKE BREEZE MOVEMENT INLAND AND STRONG CONVECTION
SHOULD SPREAD NEWD ACROSS NWRN PA INTO WRN NY OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS. SUFFICIENT SHEAR EXISTS FOR ORGANIZED MULTICELL CLUSTERS. 
HAIL AND STRONG WINDS MAY ACCOMPANY THE LONGER LIVED ACTIVITY.

..DARROW.. 06/28/2006

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...BGM...BUF...CTP...PBZ...RLX...CLE...

39788208 41808039 42947730 42087698 39358072 

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