[MCD] SWOMCD

[Mesoscale Convective Discussions]

ACUS11 KWNS 281351
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 281351 
OHZ000-MIZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-281615-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1364
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0851 AM CDT WED JUN 28 2006

AREAS AFFECTED...LWR MI...NWRN OH...NRN/CNTRL IND AND ERN IL

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 281351Z - 281615Z

TSTMS WILL BE INCREASING THROUGHOUT THE MORNING HOURS. STRONGER
CELLS WILL BE CAPABLE OF MAINLY LARGE HAIL AND A WW MAY BE REQUIRED
LATER THIS MORNING FOR PARTS OF THE REGION.

H5 CHART SHOWS THE SEASONABLY COLD TROUGH ACROSS THE UPPER GRTLKS
REGION WITH TEMPERATURES AOB MINUS 20 DEG C AT GRB.  THIS COLD
TROUGH ALOFT HAS BECOME MORE PROGRESSIVE AND SHOULD SPREAD EWD ATOP
THE RELATIVELY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER ACROSS THE CNTRL GRTLKS/MIDWEST
REGION THROUGH THE AFTN.  12Z DTX/ILX/GRB SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT AS
SFC TEMPERATURES EXCEED 70 DEG F...SURFACE BASED STORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE. 

MAIN LIMITING FACTOR FOR SUSTAINED STORMS WILL BE THE WEAK
CONVERGENCE IN THE OVERALL WNWLY FLOW REGIME.  BUT...THERE IS
EVIDENCE OF A WEAK COLD FRONT CURLING FROM NERN WI ACROSS WRN LWR MI
SWWD INTO CNTRL IL THAT SHOULD BE THE IMPETUS FOR TSTMS THROUGH THE
DAY.  TSTMS SHOULD MAINLY FORM INTO CLUSTERS OR SHORT BANDS AND
PULSE TO SEVERE LEVELS THROUGH THE AFTN WITH LARGE HAIL THE PRIMARY
THREAT.  GUSTY/DAMAGING WINDS MAY ALSO OCCUR AS COLD POOL
ORGANIZATION ALIGNS WITH THE MEAN WNWLY FLOW.  

CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT THE HIGHEST SEVERE THREAT WILL OCCUR
FROM LATE MORNING INTO THE LATE AFTN FROM PARTS OF LWR MI/WRN PARTS
OF SWRN ONT SWWD INTO PARTS OF IND/NWRN OH.

..RACY.. 06/28/2006

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...CLE...ILN...DTX...APX...IWX...GRR...IND...LOT...ILX...

39968892 42058720 43858751 44878672 45548431 44698135
43208070 39638488 

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