[MCD] SWOMCD

[Mesoscale Convective Discussions]

ACUS11 KWNS 261538
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 261537 
MNZ000-NDZ000-261700-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1355
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1037 AM CDT MON JUN 26 2006

AREAS AFFECTED...NRN MN...PARTS OF ERN SD

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 261537Z - 261700Z

TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED FOR AN INCREASING SEVERE THREAT...AND THE
POSSIBILITY OF A WW.

MID-LEVEL COOLING ACCOMPANYING STRONG DIGGING UPPER JET STREAK AND
ASSOCIATED MID-LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS CONTRIBUTING TO ONGOING
DESTABILIZATION NEAR THE CENTRAL U.S./CANADIAN BORDER AREA. 
DEEPENING CONVECTION IS ALREADY EVIDENT...MOSTLY ALONG COLD FRONT
FROM PARTS OF FAR SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN/MANITOBA INTO WESTERN
ONTARIO.  THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO INCREASE INTO
THE 18-21Z TIME FRAME...GRADUALLY SPREADING SOUTHWARD INTO NORTH
DAKOTA AND NORTHERN MINNESOTA. MOST CONCENTRATED ACTIVITY SEEMS
LIKELY NEAR/JUST SOUTH AND EAST OF MID-LEVEL COLD CORE /500 MB TEMPS
TO -20C/...SPREADING SOUTH OF THE LAKE OF THE WOODS AND
INTERNATIONAL FALLS AREA.  RISK OF HAIL IS PROBABLY PRIMARY THREAT
WITH THESE STORMS.  SHEAR/FLOW IS GENERALLY WEAK...BUT DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS WILL ALSO BE A THREAT...MAINLY WITH ANY PRE-FRONTAL ACTIVITY
DEEPER INTO NORTHERN MINNESOTA AND EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA...WHERE DEEP
MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER WILL DEVELOP BY MID AFTERNOON.

..KERR.. 06/26/2006

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...DLH...FGF...BIS...

48569287 48079331 47379445 47269625 47599708 47699945
47820063 48290117 48930100 

WWWW