[MCD] SWOMCD

Fri Jun 23 17:31:30 UTC 2006

ACUS11 KWNS 231731
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 231731 
MEZ000-MAZ000-NHZ000-RIZ000-CTZ000-NYZ000-VTZ000-NJZ000-PAZ000-231930-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1322
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1231 PM CDT FRI JUN 23 2006

AREAS AFFECTED...MA/CT/RI/SOUTHEAST NY/SOUTHERN NH/SOUTHERN
VT/NJ/EASTERN PA

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 231731Z - 231930Z

POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS/HAIL IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE
THROUGH MID AFTERNOON ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND ADJACENT
PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST NY/NJ/EASTERN PA. WILL MONITOR FOR A POSSIBLE
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH.

VISIBLE SATELLITE TRENDS DEPICT CUMULUS FIELD DEEPENING OVER THE
PAST HOUR ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND...ESPECIALLY IN A CORRIDOR
FROM SOUTHEAST NY ACROSS MA AND SOUTHERN NH. A MOIST/UNSTABLE
AIRMASS RESIDES ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND ADJACENT PORTIONS OF
NY/PA/NJ...WITH UPPER 60S F DEWPOINTS COMMON. OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS IN
CONJUNCTION WITH MODIFIED 12Z ALBANY/LONG ISLAND/CHATHAM OBSERVED
RAOBS SUGGEST NEGLIGIBLE CONVECTIVE INHIBITION REMAINS ACROSS MUCH
OF THE REGION...WITH MLCAPES VALUES ESTIMATED TO BE AS HIGH AS
1000-1500 J/KG MLCAPE. STORMS SHOULD GRADUALLY INCREASE IN INTENSITY
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON GIVEN FURTHER BOUNDARY LAYER
HEATING/DEVELOPMENT OF STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES IN PRESENCE OF
30-35 KTS OF VERTICAL SHEAR. POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS AND HAIL.

..GUYER.. 06/23/2006

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...GYX...BOX...OKX...ALY...PHI...BGM...

43397209 43397119 43207067 42587110 41917111 41507181
41357268 40747334 39977429 39597494 40017585 41487541
42277401 42687301 

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