[MCD] SWOMCD

Thu Jun 22 20:12:27 UTC 2006

ACUS11 KWNS 222013
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 222012 
PAZ000-WVZ000-OHZ000-KYZ000-INZ000-222145-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1305
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0312 PM CDT THU JUN 22 2006

AREAS AFFECTED...OH...NE KY...WV...WRN PA

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 541...

VALID 222012Z - 222145Z

A LARGE-SCALE BOW ECHO IS DEVELOPING AND WILL HAVE A POTENTIAL FOR
WIDESPREAD WIND DAMAGE ACROSS ERN OH AND WRN PA. AN ISOLATED TORNADO
THREAT WITH LARGE HAIL WILL ALSO EXIST WITH THE STRONGER CELLS.

LATEST ANALYSIS SHOWS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM NEAR LAKE
ERIE WSWWD INTO NRN IND AND CNTRL IL. MODERATE TO STRONG INSTABILITY
IS PRESENT SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY WHICH WILL FUEL A LINEAR MCS EWD
LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. THE MCS IS BEING SUPPORTED BY
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH EMBEDDED IN WLY FLOW ALOFT. OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS
SHOWS A 55 KT MID-LEVEL JET MAX JUST BEHIND THE MCS WHICH IS
CREATING STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES SUFFICIENT FOR SEVERE
STORMS. THE STRONG WINDS AT MID-LEVELS WILL CONTINUE TO BE
TRANSPORTED TO THE SFC BY THE MCS AND MAY RESULT IN A WIDESPREAD
THREAT FOR WIND DAMAGE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS ACROSS ERN OH. AN
ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT AND POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL WILL ALSO EXIST
WITH SUPERCELLS EMBEDDED IN OR OUT AHEAD OF THE LINE.

..BROYLES.. 06/22/2006

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...CTP...PBZ...RLX...CLE...JKL...ILN...LMK...IWX...

37678217 37608394 38278489 39988474 41528412 42018210
41607944 38458009 

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