[MCD] SWOMCD

[Mesoscale Convective Discussions]

ACUS11 KWNS 221747
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 221746 
COZ000-NMZ000-221915-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1301
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1246 PM CDT THU JUN 22 2006

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN/CNTRL CO...NRN NM

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 221746Z - 221915Z

A SEVERE THREAT WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AS CELLS INCREASE IN
COVERAGE ACROSS ECNTRL CO AND NRN NM. A WW WILL LIKELY BECOME
NECESSARY BY THE 19-20Z TIMEFRAME.

LATEST ANALYSIS SHOWS BACKED LOW-LEVEL FLOW ACROSS MOST OF ERN CO
WITH MOISTURE ADVECTION BRINGING DEWPOINTS UPWARD IN THE UPPER 50S F
AND LOWER 60S F. THIS HAS RESULTED IN MODERATE DESTABILIZATION
MAINLY SOUTH OF THE I-70 CORRIDOR BUT CONTINUED SFC HEATING SHOULD
ALLOW MODERATE INSTABILITY TO DEVELOP ACROSS NE CO AS WELL. AS
STORMS MOVE EWD OUT OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE
HIGHER INSTABILITY...STEADY INTENSIFICATION SHOULD OCCUR. THE
PROFILER IN SERN CO SHOWS ABOUT 30 KT OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR WHICH
SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS. IN ADDITION...A WELL-DEFINED
DENVER CYCLONE IS PRESENT AND THIS WILL HELP ENHANCE SHEAR PROFILES
EAST OF THE FRONT RANGE INCREASING THE SUPERCELL THREAT ACROSS NE CO
AS WELL. VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR LARGE HAIL AND
ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE. A BRIEF TORNADO THREAT MAY ALSO OCCUR AS
SUPERCELLS MATURE IN THE CO PLAINS LATER THIS AFTERNOON.

..BROYLES.. 06/22/2006

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...GLD...PUB...BOU...ABQ...

35860436 36090619 37290631 38740577 40340489 40470365
39720249 37720322 

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