[MCD] SWOMCD

Thu Jun 22 02:44:29 UTC 2006

ACUS11 KWNS 220245
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 220245 
OKZ000-KSZ000-TXZ000-220445-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1290
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0945 PM CDT WED JUN 21 2006

AREAS AFFECTED...SWRN KS...OK/TX PANHANDLES...NRN OK

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 531...

VALID 220245Z - 220445Z

OUTFLOW COLLISIONS OVER SWRN KS AND THE NRN/ERN TX PANHANDLES MAY
SUPPORT A MARGINAL SVR THREAT THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF WW 531
EXPIRATION TIME. CONVECTIVE CLUSTER ORGANIZING OVER THE NERN TX 
PANHANDLE AND FAR NWRN OK...MAY POSE A MARGINAL SVR THREAT AS IT
MOVES EWD INTO NRN OK. TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED FOR AN ADDITIONAL WW
OVER THIS AREA.

SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS STRONG PRESSURE RISES OVER THE OK/NRN TX
PANHANDLE...WHERE COLD POOL DEVELOPMENT WAS OCCURRING. CONVECTIVE
LINE WAS SHOWING SIGNS OF ORGANIZING IN NWRN OK. HOWEVER
INTERPOLATION OF THE 00Z OUN/DDC SOUNDINGS SHOWS WARMER MID LEVEL
TEMPERATURES AND INCREASING CINH SHOULD EXIST OVER NRN OK. HOWEVER
IF COLD POOL IS DEEP ENOUGH THEN WITH INCREASING LOW LEVEL
JET/INFLOW CONVECTIVE LINE MAY BE SUSTAINED OR INCREASE IN STRENGTH.
GIVEN STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND INCREASING EFFECTIVE SHEAR
WITH THE LOW LEVEL JET...SVR THREAT MAY DEVELOP WITH THIS ACTIVITY
AND TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE WW OVER NRN OK. FURTHER
WEST...AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM EARLIER CONVECTIVE COMPLEX OVER THE
SRN TX PANHANDLE MAY MERGE WITH OUTFLOW BOUNDARY OVER THE NRN TX
PANHANDLE AND SUPPORT RENEWED ISOLATED SVR TSTM DEVELOPMENT BUT
THREAT SHOULD BE LIMITED IN NATURE. OVER SWRN KS...MOST OF THE
AIRMASS HAS BEEN WORKED OVER...BUT COLLAPSING TSTMS MAY SUPPORT DMGG
WIND GUSTS. THE SVR THREAT OVER WW 531 IS ANTICIPATED TO WANE IN THE
NEXT 1-2 HRS...WITH LOSS OF HEATING AND WEAK FORCING...SO WW 531
SHOULD BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 04Z.

..CROSBIE.. 06/22/2006

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...TSA...ICT...OUN...DDC...AMA...

38099953 38190129 38060155 36190224 35610116 35550055
35499780 35589732 36679670 37349783 37299975 

WWWW