[MCD] SWOMCD

Thu Jun 22 02:10:06 UTC 2006

ACUS11 KWNS 220209
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 220209 
KSZ000-NEZ000-COZ000-220415-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1289
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0909 PM CDT WED JUN 21 2006

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN CO...NWRN KS/FAR SWRN NEB

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 529...535...

VALID 220209Z - 220415Z

THREAT FOR SVR STORMS WILL REMAIN LIMITED FOR THE REMAINDER OF WW
529 THROUGH THE EXPIRATION TIME /03Z/ OVER THE FRONT RANGE NERN CO.
FURTHER EAST...CLUSTER OF SVR STORMS INCLUDING SUPERCELLS WILL
CONTINUE TO DEVELOP OVER FAR NERN CO WITH LEFT AND RIGHT SPLITS
MOVING NEWD/SEWD RESPECTIVELY INTO FAR SWRN NEB/NWRN KS OVER THE
NEXT 1-2 HRS.

NRN HALF OF WW 529 OVER NERN CO HAS NOT BEEN SIGNIFICANTLY MODIFIED
DUE TO EARLIER CONVECTIVE CLUSTER THAT MOVED ACROSS SERN CO INTO
SWRN/WCENTRAL KS. MODEST UPSLOPE FLOW...APPROACHING SHORTWAVE OVER
WRN CO AND MARGINAL INSTABILITY /MUCAPES AROUND 1000 J/KG PER THE
00Z DNR SOUNDING/ SUGGEST THAT ISOLATED SVR STORMS MAY STILL DEVELOP
OVER THE NEXT HR OR SO ACROSS THE FRONT RANGE OF NERN CO. LONG TERM
SVR THREAT DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE HIGH...SO A NEW WW IS NOT
ANTICIPATED TO REPLACE WW 529. HOWEVER...WW 529 MAY BE EXTENDED
LOCALLY PER WFO DISCRETION.

FURTHER EAST OVER FAR ERN CO..NWRN KS AND SWRN NEB...GLD VWP AND MCK
PROFILER DATA SHOWS MODERATE DEEP LAYER SHEAR /35-40 KTS/ WITH
STRAIGHT LINE HODOGRAPHS. SPLITTING SUPERCELLS HAVE RESULTED WITH
THE MAIN SVR THREAT OVER WW 535 REMAINING ACROSS FAR ECENTRAL/NERN
CO THROUGH 03Z. SUPERCELL STROM MOTIONS SHOULD REMAIN FAIRLY SLOW
DUE TO ELY LOW LEVEL FLOW AND ONLY MODEST MID LEVEL FLOW...LARGE
HAIL AND DMGG WIND THREAT WITH THESE CELLS WILL LIKELY NOT REACH
NWRN KS/FAR SWRN NEB UNTIL AFTER 03Z. FURTHER SOUTH...CONVECTIVE
LINE OVER SWRN KS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO DEVELOP NWD INTO SRN
PORTION OF WW 535. MAIN THREAT WITH THESE STORMS WILL BE DMGG WINDS
DUE TO LINEAR NATURE OF STORMS.

..CROSBIE.. 06/22/2006

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...GID...DDC...GLD...PUB...BOU...

40140131 40010344 39990487 38920466 38430429 38280265
38379948 40209962 