[MCD] SWOMCD

Thu Jun 22 00:45:30 UTC 2006

ACUS11 KWNS 220046
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 220046 
KSZ000-MOZ000-NEZ000-IAZ000-OKZ000-TXZ000-COZ000-220245-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1287
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0746 PM CDT WED JUN 21 2006

AREAS AFFECTED...TX AND OK PANHANDLES...MUCH OF KS...SERN NEBRASKA

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 531...533...

VALID 220046Z - 220245Z

THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING
HOURS. VERY LARGE HAIL IS LIKELY OVER MOST OF KS AND SERN
NEBRASKA...WITH SMALLER HAIL LIKELY OVER TX. DAMAGING WIND WILL
REMAIN POSSIBLE EVERYWHERE IN THE WATCHES.

SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATES STRONG PRESSURE RISES BEHIND SERN CO
STORM CLUSTER. NEW DEVELOPMENT HAS FORMED OVER NERN CO...ESSENTIALLY
LINKED UP WITH ACTIVITY TO THE SOUTH. THESE STORMS WILL GRADUALLY
ENTER WRN KS. 

TO THE SE..SEVERE STORMS PERSIS ALONG FRONTAL BOUNDARY FROM SERN
NEB. INTO SWRN KS...AND ALONG DRYLINE INTO TX PANHANDLE. RAPID
DEVELOPMENT WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS WRN KS WHERE OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES
COLLIDE NEXT FEW HOURS. TO THE SOUTH...STORMS ACROSS THE PANHANDLES
WILL PERSIST AS WELL GIVEN SLY LOW LEVEL JET AND AMPLE FEED OF
INSTABILITY NWD. LATER IN THE NIGHT...STORM CLUSTER COULD MERGE
TOGETHER INTO A LARGER MCS...SHIFTING SEWD TOWARD THE ICT AREA AND
INTO NRN OK LATE...WITH DAMAGING WIND THREAT.

01Z DAY 1 OUTLOOK WILL BE SHIFTED EAST TO REFLECT LATEST THINKING.

..JEWELL.. 06/22/2006

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...EAX...OAX...TOP...ICT...OUN...GID...DDC...GLD...LUB...AMA...PUB...

34759995 34740038 34320042 34360204 34740207 34710296
36940298 36990207 38240205 38280019 39140008 39159959
40029964 40029833 40359825 40359737 40699733 40749691
41079685 41069640 40839642 40789581 40169542 39969526
39679532 39649549 39449552 39429512 38979513 38959499
38739504 38719548 38379557 38389586 38129592 38029725
37869725 37919762 37689783 37329788 37339827 37059834
36959995 

WWWW