[MCD] SWOMCD

Thu Jun 22 00:25:16 UTC 2006

ACUS11 KWNS 220026
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 220025 
OHZ000-MIZ000-220130-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1286
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0725 PM CDT WED JUN 21 2006

AREAS AFFECTED...SERN LOWER MI / NRN-CENTRAL INTO ERN OH

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 532...

VALID 220025Z - 220130Z

SEVERE THREAT WILL PERSIST ACROSS WW 532 THIS EVENING. NEW WW IS
BEING CONSIDERED DOWNSTREAM OF THIS WW INTO ERN PARTS OF OH.

LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION PER INCREASING SWLY LLJ ACROSS OH
VALLEY IS CONTINUING TO DESTABILIZE AIR MASS EWD INTO ERN OH. 
REGIONAL RADARS INDICATED AN ESTABLISHED LINE OF STRONG TO SEVERE
STORMS EXTENDING FROM NWRN OH EWD ALONG THE SHORE OF LAKE ERIE...
REACHING NRN ERIE COUNTY.  CURRENT TRACK OF THIS LEAD ACTIVITY
SHOWED STORMS MOVING EAST OF WW 532 INTO LORAIN COUNTY BETWEEN 2330-
01Z.  50 KT WLY MID LEVEL WINDS ATOP SWLY 30-35 KT LLJ ARE
MAINTAINING STRONG EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR VALUES FOR ORGANIZED SEVERE
THREAT TO CONTINUE AS AIR MASS DESTABILIZES FROM W-E.  

ADDITIONAL ISOLATED STORMS LOCATED NORTH OF THE SERN LOWER MI/NWRN
OH CONVECTIVE COMPLEX WILL CONTINUE TO POSE A POTENTIAL SEVERE
THREAT...GIVEN AXIS OF MODERATE INSTABILITY EXTENDING NWD THROUGH
LOWER MI AND STRONG EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR VALUES.

..PETERS.. 06/22/2006

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...PBZ...CLE...ILN...DTX...IWX...

40468379 41718417 42718403 43128263 42878249 41648233
41608134 41878072 41248059 40428077 40238145 40308285 

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