[MCD] SWOMCD

Wed Jun 21 20:25:42 UTC 2006

ACUS11 KWNS 212024
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 212024 
KSZ000-OKZ000-TXZ000-NMZ000-212300-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1280
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0324 PM CDT WED JUN 21 2006

AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL AND SW KS...ERN OK PANHANDLE AND NRN TX
PANHANDLE

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 212024Z - 212300Z

SCATTERED SEVERE STORMS WILL INITIATE DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON WITH
VERY LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND THE MAIN THREATS. A WW WILL LIKELY
SOON.

MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY HAVE INCREASED DUE TO PERSISTENT SLY FLOW
ACROSS THE SRN AND CENTRAL PLAINS...ALONG AND SOUTH OF A DIFFUSE
STATIONARY BOUNDARY DRAPED NE-SW ACROSS KS. THE STRONGEST HEATING
AND STEEPEST LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES EXIST ACROSS FAR SWRN KS INTO THE
OK/TX PANHANDLES AND THIS IS WHERE INITIAL DEVELOPMENT IS
ANTICIPATED AS CAPPING IS STRONGER FARTHER E.

GIVEN VERY LARGE INSTABILITY AND STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES...VERY
LARGE HAIL WILL BE LIKELY. MID TO UPPER LEVEL FLOW OF 20-35 KTS IS
NOT OPTIMAL FOR SUPERCELLS...BUT GIVEN STRONG LOW LEVEL WARM
ADVECTION AND DEGREE OF INSTABILITY...A FEW SUPERCELLS WILL BE
LIKELY. THE MOST FAVORABLE AREA FOR SUPERCELLS WILL BE FROM SWRN AND
CENTRAL KS INTO NRN KS...WHERE BACKED LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL FAVOR
LEFT-MOVERS. FARTHER S INTO OK AND TX...DAMAGING WINDS WILL ALSO BE
LIKELY GIVEN VERY STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES ENHANCING OUTFLOW.

..JEWELL.. 06/21/2006

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...TOP...ICT...OUN...GID...DDC...GLD...LUB...AMA...ABQ...

39489704 38439694 37939749 37249794 36359951 35720028
35170094 34590172 34420258 34520295 34950305 36280233
36720207 37320163 37950112 38500073 39329982 39959846
39909751 39769718 