[MCD] SWOMCD

[Mesoscale Convective Discussions]

ACUS11 KWNS 212019
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 212019 
MIZ000-212145-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1279
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0319 PM CDT WED JUN 21 2006

AREAS AFFECTED...NRN LOWER MI

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 212019Z - 212145Z

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
ENEWD INTO THE LOWER PENINSULA OF MI. LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED STRONG
WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS ACTIVITY OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS.

LATEST ANALYSIS SHOWS A WARM FRONT ACROSS SRN LOWER MI WITH A WEAKLY
UNSTABLE AIRMASS IN PLACE ACROSS NRN LOWER MI. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
ACROSS THIS AREA THIS AFTERNOON SHOW MOST OF THE INSTABILITY ABOVE
700 MB SUGGESTING THE ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN ELEVATED IN NATURE. THE
MCS OVER LAKE MICHIGAN IS ASSOCIATED WITH AN MCV EVIDENT ON VISIBLE
IMAGERY JUST AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH. WSR-88D VWPS
CURRENTLY SHOW 40 KT OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR ACROSS NRN LOWER MI
SUGGESTING A SEVERE THREAT WILL EXIST WITH THE MCS. HAIL WILL BE THE
PRIMARY THREAT DUE TO STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND COLD AIR
ALOFT.

..BROYLES.. 06/21/2006

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...DTX...APX...GRR...

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