[MCD] SWOMCD

Wed Jun 21 15:31:55 UTC 2006

ACUS11 KWNS 211532
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 211532 
WIZ000-ILZ000-IAZ000-MNZ000-211730-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1271
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1032 AM CDT WED JUN 21 2006

AREAS AFFECTED...NE IA...FAR NRN IL...SRN WI

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 211532Z - 211730Z

THE SEVERE THREAT ACROSS SRN WI AND NRN IL WILL INCREASE LATE THIS
MORNING AS A DEVELOPING MCS APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. LARGE HAIL AND
ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER CELLS.

LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDING EWD
ACROSS ERN IA INTO FAR NRN IL AND NRN IND. AN MCS IS ONGOING ALONG
THE BOUNDARY AND WILL MOVE EWD INTO INCREASING INSTABILITY ACROSS
SRN WI AND IL WHERE MLCAPE VALUES RANGE FROM 1500-2500 J/KG.
LARGE-SCALE ASCENT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING UPPER-TROUGH IS
SUPPORTING THE MCS. IN ADDITION...A 50 KT JET MID-LEVEL ASSOCIATED
WITH THE TROUGH OVER ERN IA WILL INCREASE VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES
SUGGESTING THAT SUPERCELLS WILL BE POSSIBLE. SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE
HAIL AND ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE WILL BE MOST LIKELY WITH STORMS THAT
REMAIN NEAR THE BOUNDARY. STORMS THAT DEVELOP WELL NORTH OF THE
BOUNDARY WILL HAVE A POTENTIAL FOR HAIL AND MAY REMAIN ELEVATED.

..BROYLES.. 06/21/2006

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...GRB...LOT...MKX...DVN...ARX...DMX...

42328832 42129122 42649219 43809192 43918852 

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