[MCD] SWOMCD

Tue Jun 20 20:02:59 UTC 2006

ACUS11 KWNS 202003
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 202003 
ILZ000-MOZ000-IAZ000-202200-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1261
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0303 PM CDT TUE JUN 20 2006

AREAS AFFECTED...NE MO...SE IA...WRN IL

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 202003Z - 202200Z

SEVERE THREAT MAY INCREASE OVER THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS ACROSS SE IA...NE
MO AND WRN IL. ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE AND LARGE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE
WITH THE STRONGER CELLS. A WW MAY BECOME NECESSARY BY 21Z ACROSS THE
REGION.

LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A STATIONARY FRONT IN PLACE FROM CNTRL IL
INTO SRN IA AND ERN NEB. A MOIST AXIS WITH LOW 70 F DEWPOINTS EXIST 
FROM ST LOUIS EXTENDING NWWD INTO FAR NW MO WHERE STRONG UNSTABLE
AIR IS PRESENT. ELEVATED CONVECTION IS ONGOING ACROSS NCNTRL MO JUST
AHEAD OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC
ANALYSIS. AS THE CONVECTION MOVES EWD INTO A WEAKNESS IN THE CAP AND
INTO THE STRONGLY UNSTABLE AIR...SFC-BASED THUNDERSTORMS MAY
DEVELOP. IF THIS OCCURS...MODERATE TO STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES
AND STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR ISOLATED
SUPERCELLS WITH A POTENTIAL FOR WIND DAMAGE AND LARGE HAIL.

..BROYLES.. 06/20/2006

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...ILX...LSX...DVN...DMX...EAX...

38689132 39009235 39889294 40729297 41409219 41309070
40348990 39129007 

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