[MCD] SWOMCD

Tue Jun 20 19:56:25 UTC 2006

ACUS11 KWNS 201956
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 201956 
KSZ000-COZ000-202200-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1260
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0256 PM CDT TUE JUN 20 2006

AREAS AFFECTED...EXTREME SERN CO INTO SWRN AND CENTRAL KS

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 201956Z - 202200Z

ISOLATED STORMS ARE LIKELY TO DEVELOP LATE THIS AFTERNOON WITH
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.

IT HAS BECOME VERY HOT WITHIN SURFACE THERMAL TROUGH FROM NRN KS
SWWD INTO SERN CO AND THE TX/OK PANHANDLES WHERE STRONG MIXING WITH
LOW LEVEL JET HAS CAUSED CONVECTIVE INHIBITION TO ERODE. THIS
EROSION WILL CONTINUE SLOWLY NEWD INTO CENTRAL AND NRN KS AS HEATING
CONTINUES.

VERY STEEP LOW TO MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE COMBINING WITH DEWPOINTS
IN THE 40-55 F RANGE TO PRODUCE SBCAPES OF 1000-1500 J/KG. STRONG
WARM ADVECTION PROFILES IN THE LOW LEVELS AND MODEST WLY FLOW ALOFT
SUGGEST MULTICELLULAR STORMS ARE LIKELY. THESE STORMS WILL PRODUCE
LOCALLY DAMAGING OUTFLOW WINDS GIVEN DCAPE VALUES OF 1500-2000 J/KG
AND MIXING DOWN OF LOW LEVEL JET. IN ADDITION...SOME OF THE STRONGER
CORES MAY CONTAIN HAIL

..JEWELL.. 06/20/2006

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...TOP...ICT...GID...DDC...GLD...PUB...BOU...

38969783 37570128 37070273 37510321 37960321 38760344
39260126 39909985 39929914 39949765 

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